Micro 948: Noughts and Crosses Blitz [Game over!]

[T-Bone]

I think a better question to discuss would be how much should we let the game influence our choice making? Like if you scumread someone in a less optimal sqaure would you go for someone else you're less sure on if they had a better square for us to lynch? Or should you play this like normal mafia.

Speaking as someone who was scum the last time I played this set-up, I used the town's over-reliance on the board to manipulate it away from me for the win. I had a corner square, so I forced the lynch on my opposite corner to ensure they had to take me to LyLo.

[T-Bone]

Uhhhh...maybe look at your chart again? Lynching opposite corners is the worst thing for tic-tac-toe lol

[T-Bone]

Specifically for mafia tic-tac-toe. We basically want to control the lynch and the night kill, not give the mafia agency over where the board goes.

[T-Bone]

The fun thing about this set-up is that you use the first three moves (lynch, scumkill, and 2nd lynch) to set-up (for the most part) which three players are going to LyLo. (You also hope you lynch one scum before that point). Like, neither town or scum is going to win with 3 in a row without some shenanigans (like unlucky board placement). The goal is to not to try to win tic-tac-toe. Remember, each side only gets 3 moves before LyLo. No one gets all 5 moves necessary to win.

[T-Bone]

Yes, that was what I was trying to get across. Optimal tic-tac-toe and optimal mafia-tac-toe are not the same strats.

[T-Bone]

Now I have to ask myself...did you know, or did you not know? (rhetorical for Blair, something to consider for everyone else)

[T-Bone]

Vote: Dunnstral

[T-Bone]

I picked Dunnstral out of the *check* three other people who posted last night as the scummiest of the three. I got a genuine feeling from Clover and have a soft town-lean there. I was mulling over whether Blair was purposely feeling like prioritizing optimal tic-tac-toe because she was scum and knew better, or because she is town and was genuinely trying to game-solve. I feel like it's the second but I still have a lingering feeling about the first. Finally, both of them are middle blocks like me, so while not completely off the table (because again, while corners are optimal it doesn't matter that much) I wouldn't feel strongly enough on page 2 to want to lynch them.

[T-Bone]

Vote: Dunnstral

My lynch would certainly be convenient for you

But like, of all the ways to react? I feel like Dunnstral has been around long enough to know not to make assumptions about naked votes.

The "somewhat nod at is the one against myself" feels hilariously self-conscious scum. If you're town you should not find any reasoning against you to be good! Believable maybe, but why would you agree that your own posting is suspicious, instead of trying to correct me for why it is not?

Weird, as self-awareness is a good trait.

Clover, I will also engage you on this front:

If I can show you many, many, many, town games where I, as town, pressure people within the first 3 pages for "reaches" or molehills, and additionally

get flak

for doing so much like you are doing here, will you concede that your point is NAI? Because I am confident that a simple meta search will back me up here

Obligatory meta is trash post.

SNIP

No one likes being perceived as a newbie so this is a weird thing to try and hang a read on.

SNIP

And finally, I hate *most* of this post and I can't quite put my finger on why (basically all the quick thoughts). Probably hanging several "player X, Y, and Z are devoid of content" while being devoid of content. Self-awareness not being shown at this point. But they are quick thoughts? IDK.

[T-Bone]

So was it a lack of self-awareness or something else?

[T-Bone]

Finally, both of them are middle blocks like me, so while not completely off the table (because again, while corners are optimal it doesn't matter that much) I wouldn't feel strongly enough on page 2 to want to lynch them.

Hold up, apologies if I missed this somewhere but doesn't it matter a lot? If we open with an edge, while we can still force a draw with certain moves, we can also be forced into a tictactoe loss with wrong moves, which means we're giving ourselves a very tight lynchpool on D2.

Lynchpool is tight no matter what. You can force a draw from any starting position though. Remember that 5p LyLo is day 3 and endgame LyLo is Day 4

[T-Bone]

Maxwell's plan eliminates a Maxwell/dunnstral team, yes? Not that either couldn't be independently scum, but they can't be scum together.

[T-Bone]

Luck controls life. It is a terrifying force that cannot be fully understood.

Where path is Lady Luck ushering us towards? rozyroz or maxwell?

There's a way to kill both of us, and it starts with voting rozyroz. From there, mafia shoots you night 2. Then town lynches Cat Scratch Fever, forcing Dunnstral to be the night 2 kill, and I'm forced as the day 3 lynch. Of course, this loses the game if both mafia are within T-Bone/Clover Ebi/GuiltyLion/Blair, but I'm willing to bet the game on at least 1 scum being in one of the bottom 3 squares.

(you could also start with me, but then you'd have to kill guiltylion and either T-Bone or Clover instead. I don't townread T-Bone but I'd prefer getting Cat Scratch.)

So all the strategy I've alluded to in previous posts is this: By voting players in a certain order, we can force the scum kills for nights 2 and 3 to be on certain players, leaving us with only one corner of the board (I saw this was discovered in a previous game when I read through it, which made me feel less smart). So, what you should be doing as confirmed town in what is likely your only day alive is picking two players in adjacent squares you have strong townreads on, and plan a pattern that lynches everyone but them. I can illustrate this later but it's late not

So that being said, VOTE: rozyroz

I know I said I had a gut townread on them, and still do, but this sets up getting rid of the kanna/cat scratch slot, which I want to make happen. I could always be wrong about that read on rozy as well, that type of statement certain can come from a newbie scum player who doesn't know what to push on, my instinct is just that newbie town basically have to be honest when they don't know what to do while as scum they can just make something up and usually will.

(I feel bad putting my vote on an obviously new player day 1 especially when it doesn't really have anything to do with their play).

If you decide to get rid of me day 1 I'll accept it but I'd request that you then lynch rozy so that T-Bone and Blair are the next two to die. I don't want clover/guilty getting killed and an end board with blair/cat scartch/dunnstral on it is supbar as I don't find any of those players to be towny.

I won't vote guiltylion unless it's 1 minute before deadline and there are no other lynch options.

Like, this is really weird from the standpoint that maxwell and Dunnstral are scum together. So there's that.

Just overall is a weird plan as both alignments. The best lynch for scum!maxwell is Dunnstral, as it ensures maxwell goes to LyLo. Weird as town though, because from any town perspective, you already get to eliminate two people because of Celeste. I can see not being concerned with survivability, but if you're town you'd rather be the nightkill, no?

[T-Bone]

Also (as I triple post) it is really weird tonally for maxwell to continue to complain about the early game strategy talk...while basing his vote here mostly on strategy. Is that again, lack of self-awareness, or seeing the scum-tactic you yourself are doing everywhere? (if you recall, his entrance to the day was calling people scum for being devoid of content while he himself was being devoid of content. Now he's complaining about people spending time on game strategy while using game strategy as the reason for his vote)

This is a vote: maxwell except I'm not making it official because I don't want to move him to L-1 yet. I may still also want to lynch Dunnstral, and I may also want beeboy depending.

[T-Bone]

maxwell ​	Clover Ebi ​	GuiltyLion ​
T-Bone ​	Celeste ​	Blair ​
Rozyroz ​	Cat Scratch Fever ​	Dunnstral ​

[/align]

maxwell

(2): Blair, Cat Scratch Fever

Coincidence that Maxwell's lynch nearly ensures at least one if not both these players go to LyLo? No other wagon is currently composed like that. (except maybe my vote on Dunnstral)

[T-Bone]

Scum lynched me day 1 when I was in the corner and they were in the exact position on the board as t-bone, and they won

Just saying.

The same position relative to you? Because you are not in the same corner in this game.

UNVOTE: Dunnstral
VOTE: Maxwell

Is it bad I like this? I don't know, combined with the fact that everyone is kinda open to max dying and him doubling down I get bad feelings. Although this would go against my entire theory in the first place.

What about maxwell's post did you like?

Actually, reading back after the reference to dunnstral made me notice something:

[snip]

Scummy post relating to me & T-bone

I think T-bone is scummy; I think Blair said they were town because they were talking about mechanics early? I don't buy into that, I don't see a reason for mafia to avoid talking about mechanics - I do it all the time as mafia, actually

Okay, why is my post talking about you and T-Bone scummy when you suspect him as well?

Why is this weird if you and Dunnstral have different reasons for suspecting T-Bone?

As an aside, I think everyone should vote even if you're not confident in your scumreads because having your vote in play will help build wagons.

---

VOTE: maxwell

I think this is a good starting point.

Compared to Clover's, and GuilityLion's votes, these look bad. (rozy had a joke vote so hard to say, and while maxwell's is weird, it's not like these votes) CSF's slot did vote for GuiltyLion right after Clover did. Super interesting pair of votes from that slot, as both GL and maxwell are optimal for scum!CSF slot.

[T-Bone]

This is a vote: maxwell except I'm not making it official because I don't want to move him to L-1 yet. I may still also want to lynch Dunnstral, and I may also want beeboy depending.

Scratch that, this is no longer the case. I may have talked myself out of maxwell!scum? idk

[T-Bone]

With 24 hours left, if you're town you really need to start outing reads fast.

I mean it isn't that easy.
It's not about lynching 1 player.

It's about picking the best set of 3 to kill all at once.

I vibe with this 100%

Back to being unsure as to who I actually want to be lynched now!

[T-Bone]

Why do you dislike my vote on maxwell?

And my slot did vote guiltylion earlier but I’d prefer to lynch max and failing that, the beeboy slot today

Because you expressed no reasoning that I can see for the vote (saying 'let's start with it') while it is conveniently the best vote for you from a survivability stand point. You "started" with it, but where did you go from there?

[T-Bone]

@T-bone

I moved my vote from Dunnstral to another corner because Dunnstral's paranoia pinged townie to me. Context is key in this case - not much had happened yet. It would be disingenuous to conflate the reason I moved my vote with the reason I am still voting for Maxwell now - which is well documented and I'm sure everyone is tired of hearing it.

I know your reasonings after the fact. I was taking that vote in isolation and comparing it to other votes in isolation. And also comparing the wagon at that point. Town or scum, you recognize that for survivability that maxwell is your best vote, right?

[T-Bone]

Okay. Celeste gets NKed because it is pointless to speculate otherwise.

Maxwell is lynched means T-Bone vs Clover. In order to lynch Maxwell here, he has to be scum, otherwise this nearly guarantees 5p LyLo.

Lynching beeboy means T-Bone vs. CSF. Which, while I think CSF is more likely to be scum than Clover at this point, is not ideal from my perspective for obvious reasons.

Lynching GuiltyLion means Clover vs Blair. This is interesting pairing. I townread Clover...I don't know how I feel about Blair anymore, but probably would want to test her more to see how viable as scum she is.

Lynching Dunnstral means Blair vs. CSF. Which is ideal from my perspective. Dunn and CSF are my two strongest scumreads. They are a possible pair, but that hinges on getting beeboy lynched today and me lynched tomorrow.

Right now beeboy is at L-1. Meaning that we lynch either CSF or myself tomorrow. We already know where Maxwell's comfort level is on this. Presumably Dunnstral is going to prefer my lynch. GuiltyLion, are you okay with this?

(yes I know we could lynch another corner as well meaning it's actually a 3-way tomorrow, but for all intents and purposes it would result in the same sets of deaths)

[T-Bone]

Put my phantom vote on GuiltyLion for the moment.

[T-Bone]

We're essentially creating two pairs of lovers day 2. That's important. 3 essentially become unlynchable.

[T-Bone]

Am I missing something? Can't in theory we lynch the person on the other side of the square? Not just beside them. So if max was lynched we have 4 options not just a 1v1? Or am I incorrect.

You're right, but for all intents in purposes it results in the same outcome. For example if we lynch Beeboy, Maxwell/T-Bone essentially become lovers and CSF/Dunnstral essentially become the other lover pair.

[T-Bone]

I'll take the Dunnstral vote if people agree to it, I definitely think beeboy is likely town at this point and a sequence that gets CSF and Blair is ideal for me based on where my reads are. Sort of bothered by how static clover's reads are with them seeming to be based on stuff in the first couple pages but not enough to change my read on him, just knocks down my confidence a couple of rungs.

People are agreeing to it, you would put Dunn at L-1 if you moved your vote.

[T-Bone]

...ummm who said you were scum? So confused.

[T-Bone]

I mean, you can say that about any potential lynch though. Lynching Maxwell is fine unless Dunstal and CSF are scum, lynching beeboy is fine unless Blair and GuiltyLion are scum. etc. etc. etc. (and I'm using rough examples to illustrate my point).

At a certain point those of us are town have to commit to our reads and except that if we're townreading scum, then yeah, that's a bad thing that probably means we lose. Right, if Clover is scum, then I'm going to lose at this stage since they are my strongest town read.

[T-Bone]

Wait, we just win by lynching maxwell, GuiltyLion, Clover/Blair and nothing can stop this. Am I wrong?

[T-Bone]

Oh wait yes I am because we lose in 5p LyLo if maxwell and guiltylion are both town.

[T-Bone]

Son of a- the WIFOM is real.

[T-Bone]

No we're so dumb and need to hold up this lynch.

[T-Bone]

There are two ways we logically play this out. We lynch Maxwell or GuiltyLion. Let's assume both are town for the moment. In fact, I'd go as far as to pseudo-confirm them both.

Lynching Maxwell gets Celeste killed, and leaves a 5p LyLo of Bone, Clover, GL, Blair, and CSF. Lynching GuiltyLion leaves Bone, Clover, CSF, Celeste and Maxwell.

In common that leaves Bone, Clover, and CSF. That means one scum, and potentially both are in this trio.

Someone who isn't me, am I missing something? (a maxwell/GL scumteam playing some serious WIFOM maybe)

[T-Bone]

You're either scum or confirmed town GuiltyLion, so bounce some ideas with me.

[T-Bone]

No, talk to me GL. Why this move? Why force us into a single move that preserves the IC to LyLo? This is not about Day 2, this is about Day 3. Why not Celeste, and then give us the choice of lynching the beeboy/CSF lover pair or the GL/Blair lover pair instead? Give me your ideas.

Here's the Day 3 player-list now. Bone, maxwell, Clover, CSF, and Celeste. Why force this 5?

[T-Bone]

No, talk to me GL. Why this move? Why force us into a single move that preserves the IC to LyLo? This is not about Day 2, this is about Day 3. Why not Celeste, and then give us the choice of lynching the beeboy/CSF lover pair or the GL/Blair lover pair instead? Give me your ideas.

Here's the Day 3 player-list now. Bone, maxwell, Clover, CSF, and Celeste. Why force this 5?

I honestly don't know why scum did what they did, my guesses will only get you so far. I still think it's a desperation move - what was CSF to do here if she's scum? She can't just kill Celeste and then push for Blair as that will make it pretty obvious she's scum anyway. Maybe the hope was this sets them up for a better 5 somehow in terms of associations.

Another thing to consider - lynching me is the only way we can force the scum kill on N2 and have D3 flexibility. Lynching anywhere else means we forfeit control of either N2 or D3 or both, and that's clearly suboptimal

The reason I added maxwell to the thing from above...is specifically for the presence of Blair, since if we were playing tic-tac-toe the spot maxwell occupies is the move. But then after I realized it doesn't matter because we're gonna lynch you meaning she eats the nightkill regardless of alignment.

I'm asking you specifically for your thoughts is because assuming you're town we are going into 5p LyLo, and I need to not vote the townie among maxwell, CSF, and Clover. Then the other townie also needs to not vote me. Then Celeste needs to get on board. That's a tough spot. We still have scumhunting flexibility with 7 alive.

[T-Bone]

Clover, I will also engage you on this front:

If I can show you many, many, many, town games where I, as town, pressure people within the first 3 pages for "reaches" or molehills, and additionally

get flak

for doing so much like you are doing here, will you concede that your point is NAI? Because I am confident that a simple meta search will back me up here

Obligatory meta is trash post.

I also want to rewind back to a T-Bone post that pinged me at the time, but I didn't think was worth pushing on, until now it's clear that we should try to solve in Maxwell/T-Bone/Clover

This feels a really disconnected reply to me, and here's why:

a) I agree that the way meta is used haphazardly across the site is trash and often useless

b) However, here I was making a very narrow/specific argument. Clover was scumreading me for making reachy pushes in early game. I was pointing out that I have a history of doing this as town, and a history of being scum read for doing so as well. My point was that if I can show times where I've done this as town, it's NAI. This is a narrow and justified use of meta IMO - to show that something someone thinks is indicative is actually not indicative.

c) T-Bone doesn't engage with that head-on in any direct or nuanced way, he just throws out an easy catchphrase. Further, why say this, how does it align with his read on me? He doesn't push me as scum or town early game, he's kinda null/wishy-washy on me, so what was the point of jumping in like this?

Meta is (still) trash.

[T-Bone]

I know you want to break down my reaction to the meta-argument as some grand thing, but I dismiss meta both as A) a meme, because it's funny to me and B) because self-meta is actually awful and is not something to be taken seriously! (so I don't!) C) someone who posts meta is trash doesn't really need to explain further since the sentence says it all! D) it is literally the least important post of all my posts in this game lol E) I can't believe I had to go to E to explain this!

I want your thoughts on LyLo, not a defense of why you think meta is valid (or why the way you applied it is valid). You can think that. I don't care. If you and Blair are not scum, then tomorrow is LyLo and your thoughts as to who is scum remaining among the 4 of us is what matters!

[T-Bone]

uhhhh Clover buddy

[T-Bone]

Meta is (still) trash.

The way it is usually used (as a scum or town tell), yes. He was offering meta as a null tell, though, which is pretty much the only legitimate application of meta.

If your argument is "This is evidence because GuiltyLion would do this as scum" then "I would also do it as town, here is proof" is a valid rebuttal.

I was making no argument was the point, actually. Because meta is trash!

[T-Bone]

The universe in which you think that they cannot be scum together, and that's the point?

[T-Bone]

Would someone humor me for a moment? Let's say GL or Blair flip scum. What is our best lynch tactically? Bone, Maxwell, Clover, Celeste, or CSF?

[T-Bone]

Except that you are most definitely in our PoE and lynching GuiltyLion (who is also there) accomplishes that! Only Celeste doesn't need to be eliminated.

[T-Bone]

It is only now dawning on me that atm I'm basically getting thrown into a LYLO with T-bone and Max with likely the hammer and that's not a choice I can confidently make atm. So reads on Max and T-bone would be wonderful from everyone right now.

You mean I'm getting thrown into a choice between you and Max.

Back that truck up for a second.

[T-Bone]

Like, I almost want to lynch you now for even suggesting that you'd be the one to decide who gets lynched. town!max or I could also very well decide the same thing. This difference is, despite knowing I'm town, I'm not arrogant enough to think that not only do I need to figure out who the mafia are, but I don't need to prove my worth. I do, because I don't want to get mislynched and lose the game for the town.

[T-Bone]

I'm pretty sure no one here thinks I'm scum at the moment?

Actually yes, now I do. I think you just tried to overplay your hand. I think I townread maxwell more now.

[T-Bone]

Like, that is the weirdest flex when the three of us were on the same level in this game state.

[T-Bone]

Declaring that he's gonna be the deciding vote on Day 4 when we haven't even finished Day 2 tells me he may actually know the board. Otherwise you would not be so quick to dismiss a Maxwell/Bone scum pairing. Which objectively that pairing makes a ton of sense regardless of how you feel about any other player.

Plus treating yourself as confirmed town when you are at best tied for the most townread player is not a protown look. This is really awful coming from Clover two days before that could even happen.

GL as my potentially soon to be confirmed town buddy, bounce your ideas with me. Pretend you have a nullread on everyone for the moment. What do you think?

[T-Bone]

The issue with thinking about Day 4 LyLo is that we still have Day 3 LyLo to contend with unless Blair is scum. I know everyone scumreads CSF but to take that for granted is a mistake if you're town. If you, Max, and I all scumreads CSF we have a major problem.

[T-Bone]

Which to be clear, we do have that major problem!

[T-Bone]

To be fair and I don't mean to dismiss you...I keep talking past you a bit because you can't be an objective observer in the way that GL can (or Celeste if she wasn't role-playing). Either you're actually scum and nothing you could say is helpful to me, or you're town and nothing I can say about you is helpful to you. Don't mistake this shift as something sinister.

[T-Bone]

I don't include Blair in that because I don't like her attempt to lynch the IC as that comes across as incredibly opportunistic and scummy. But since I know we're lynching GL it's not worth the argument either.

[T-Bone]

I'm not suggesting we deviate from our current plan. I may want to tomorrow, I may not. But I also didn't want you to be surprised in 3p when I would push back on you being the deciding vote (and max is actually scum). That is ironically how I won last time I played this setup.

[T-Bone]

Good play right into my hands :p

[T-Bone]

In a world where we wanted to save GL/Blair, we'd lynch Maxwell to force your death, not you.

Lynching Celeste is the worst move from the game standpoint and the tic-tac-toe standpoint. If you are town you should not be voting the IC! (that means you Celeste!)

[T-Bone]

CSF's most likely partner is Blair anyway. If CSF is scum I'd rank them Blair ->Maxwell ->Clover (and then of course you can fit me whereever you please).

But keeping the IC in LyLo is more important at this point. Lynching you (or Maxwell) gives us zero choice on Day 3. Mind you zero choice in Lylo!

[T-Bone]

You'd have to be certain Maxwell is scum. Are you certain of that, yes or no? It's an auto-loss if he's town.

[T-Bone]

Alternatively you'd have to be so certain I'm scum, because I become the only lynch choice on Day 3. (Now, I know for a fact I'm town). Are you certain I'm scum, and are willing to bet the game on that right now?

[T-Bone]

If you think I'm actually scum, that's fine. But the difference between lynching GL vs not lynching GL is the choice on Day 3. You can still choose to lynch me on Day 3 if we lynch GL because A) you'd still be alive and would have a vote and B) the tic-tac-toe board becomes a stalemate so it doesn't matter which of the 4 of us gets lynched from that standpoint. But if you and Maxwell are dead, I become the only lynch choice on Day 3 because even if we were to say, lynch CSF and she flips scum, they still autowin Night 3.

[T-Bone]

It's not even about the plan. If I'm scum, fine, deal with me tomorrow. But deal with me in a way that still gives us the choice to win. Scum were dumb enough not to shoot the IC, why do you want to fix their mistake?

[T-Bone]

please don't pocket me

[T-Bone]

I'll hammer once I hear from GuiltyLion as to what I asked him last night.

[T-Bone]

I guess maxwell, clover, and I are scum together weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!111

[T-Bone]

I mean I actually think you're scum so I'm just kinda trolling here.

[T-Bone]

Much love my dude. I'll wait till you get your answers.

[T-Bone]

Oh, there it is.

Intent. Anyone else have anything they want?

[T-Bone]

Okay, see ya'll on the other side.

vote: GuiltyLion

[T-Bone]

Shoot guys, I was going to argue hard against a CSF lynch. Threw in the towel too soon!

[T-Bone]

Should have made the case for lynching Maxwell instead. You might have gotten someone else to bite.