Micro 948: Noughts and Crosses Blitz [Game over!]

[Blair]

Greetings!

Opening Thoughts

Below I've attached a visual representation of optimal game board strategy for both teams in all possible scenarios. This is in no way a hard-and-fast requirement to follow, but I think it will prove a helpful reference.

Bear in mind that while this guide suggests the top left square as the opening move, because the board is blank at this point, all four corners are functionally the same - so if we lynch in a different corner today we can just rotate the guide to match and nothing changes.

Scum will almost certainly nightkill the Innocent Child night 1, not just because they are confirmed town, but also because there are almost no scenarios in which they will not need that square to stay in the game.

Importantly, we need to remember that if both sides play the board optimally, the result will be a draw.

So we should plan on focusing on serious scumhunting while treating the game board as a secondary tool that we can use to manipulate the mafia into making nightkills that benefit us, or risk outing themselves.

I believe today we should lynch somewhere within the four corners of the board. Ideally, we can lynch the scummiest of those four players, or at least lynch someone who will force the mafia to nightkill one of our top suspects - in an ideal world, we could accomplish both.

Game Board Strategy Guide:

Spoiler:

VOTE: Dunnstral

In my experience, Dunnstral is always scum.

[Blair]

So we can better predict and manipulate their nightkills.

Tic Tac Toe is a broken, terrible game. So broken and terrible that knowing the optimal strategy doesn't change it.

[Blair]

Is it bad the first thing that ran through my mind when I saw this set up was if it was optimal to lynch the innocent child?

I wondered the same thing, but center block isn't actually a very good opening move.

Because the IC is in the center, they are pretty much doomed to die Night 1. If for some reason they don't, scum are probably trying to avoid setting themselves up to be mechanically lynched the next day - which would be a pretty nice revelation.

P-edit: No, it didn't cross my mind. Genuinely. I cannot fathom anyone not killing the Innocent Child in the center square Night 1. Good lord.

[Blair]

That's like playing Hide & Seek and warning me not to remind anyone that they win by hiding.

[Blair]

The ideal play is to lynch someone in our PoE in such a way that scum are forced to also nightkill inside our PoE to block us.

[Blair]

I looked up the chart when the role PMs went out, and typed the rest up in real time. Why?

[Blair]

I guess what I'm saying is, if I can lynch my #2 scumread so that scum have to nightkill my #1 suspect to block us from 3-in-a-row, I'm going to favor that.

If our reads are any good we can force them to nightkill themselves.

[Blair]

Town lynching opposite corners provides multiple paths to victory, though. It's actually the preferred opener. *brandishes chart*

Are you sure that town was over-relying on the board?

[Blair]

Uhhhh...maybe look at your chart again? Lynching opposite corners is the worst thing for tic-tac-toe lol

Here are all the possible outcomes for town taking opposite corners:


There was no reason for town to avoid lynching you Day 2.

[Blair]

Or are you saying because there aren't enough phases? I'll admit I hadn't considered that. I'll have to reevaluate.

[Blair]

That's fair.

We want to make sure we're lynching in a way that protects our agency, though. From Night 2 onward either town or scum may be "on their heels" with forced lynches or kills just to avoid the board resolving the game. We will want to make sure we are always the ones with options, not them.

[Blair]

If both sides play optimally, however, neither side wins the board - which is the only thing we really care about wrt the board.

[Blair]

Light town reads on Clover and T-Bone for helping clarify the mechanics and my role in presenting them - there is no scum motive for either of them to jump in there (other than the usual WIFOM-y "to earn town points" overhyped disclaimer).

[Blair]

I think lynching a corner is still optimal though

Vote: Dunnstral

why this?

You answered your own question?

[Blair]

They still managed to win because we still hadn't flipped scum by 5p so we couldn't just win the tic tac toe game outright without losing to mafia majority if we lynched wrong

I thought the game board trumped the town:scum ratio in case of conflict - am I misunderstanding or is the setup different this time?

[Blair]

If two win conditions occur at once, the game board will take precedence. E.g., Town wins by placing a third cross in a row even if they lose majority by doing so.

[Blair]

Ah, I see. I thought you meant you had a winning move available that phase but couldn't take it.

[Blair]

Scum lynched me day 1 when I was in the corner and they were in the exact position on the board as t-bone, and they won

Just saying.

The same position relative to you? Because you are not in the same corner in this game.

UNVOTE: Dunnstral
VOTE: Maxwell

[Blair]

Scum lynched me day 1 when I was in the corner and they were in the exact position on the board as t-bone, and they won

Yes, I was bottom left, scum was right middle. This game I'm bottom right, T-bone is left middle

This degree of "once bitten, twice shy" paranoia from Dunnstral is difficult to imitate and more often comes from town than scum.

I think realistically this isn't something we can really push and if Blair is scum this isn't gonna be the selling point.

this phrasing also pinged me, because it sounds like Clover Ebi is thinking more about what is acceptable to push/sell instead of what may be indicative of alignment

Dunnstrals reaction to T-bone rubbed me the wrong way as well, but maybe I just don't like how defensive it was.

I also do not like this hedge! Do you see yourself voting Dunnstral today or not? Take a stand sir, this feels like giving yourself room to vote there later!

The "somewhat nod at is the one against myself" feels hilariously self-conscious scum. If you're town you should not find any reasoning against you to be good! Believable maybe, but why would you agree that your own posting is suspicious, instead of trying to correct me for why it is not?

There's something off-putting about how many times you've shaded Clover while voting for someone (and pushing the closest thing to an RVS case against them!) who hasn't entered the thread yet.

Is it because Maxwell is in the corner and Clover isn't? Because you're ostensibly scumreading Clover hard enough to solicit a vote but you're withholding it for reasons that aren't clear to me.

[Blair]

And what is wrong with having a hedge? I don't like a post by Dunnstral so I'm going to wait and see more of his posting. So in theory, yes you could say I am 'giving myself room' as you say. Taking a solid stand at the moment would simply be a lie and I see no reasn to pretend I have a solid stand on a player. Not all people can just get a read that easily.

This is so town it hurts.
P-edit:

Townreading one other corner while putting up some kind of scumread that the other two slots can't defend against as well. Am I the only one getting bad vibes from this whole thing? If I am, I'll back off so do let me know.

I didn't mind his scumread on the absent slots. It is difficult to defend against, but the absence of a reasonable defense doesn't make it a bad case - just an unfortunate case to have leveled against you.

I also agree with his Dunnstral read, so that's probably affecting my judgment.

His push on you feels awkward, though.

[Blair]

Blair, I am v surprised you said this is "so town it hurts". It's super easy for scum to pretend to not have a read

Yes scum can easily pretend not to have reads.

What I liked about that post was that you accused him of "hedging" (which usually carries a scum connotation) and instead of arguing about it, revising the narrative or, or making excuses he doubled and tripled down on the fact that he was hedging, even though he knew you would consider it scummy. It's a lack of self-consciousness that typifies most townies.

He could be powerwolfing I suppose, but it takes a certain sort of person to try to pull that off and I'm not persuaded that's what's happening here.

[Blair]

I ammmm willing to reconsider Clover I think

not a fan of you casting me as a newbie tho I'll have you know I have played an

extensive

amount of games here over 5 years thank you

I haven't liked maxwell's posts so far

Who has played with GuiltyLion before? I have a question.

If GuiltyLion is scum, being perceived as a newbie when he is not is objectively an advantage - being underestimated where you are competent and overestimated where you are not is strategically ideal (insert vapid Tsun Zhu reference here).

GuiltyLion throws that advantage away here, ostensibly to defend his reputation as an experienced player.

Is GuiltyLion the kind of player who looks a gift horse in the mouth? I'm discounting all the WIFOM-fuel answers here in favor of either A.) he is not the sort of player who believes being underestimated is an advantage, or B.) he is that sort of player, but didn't mind tossing that advantage in the garbage here because he's town and doesn't care about that sort of thing.

(If the answer really is "C.) he knows it's an advantage but tossed it aside here for the even greater advantage of being townread by Blair for doing so" then please don't even answer - I don't need that kind of stress)

[Blair]

For Celeste:

Spoiler:

[Blair]

Guilty as charged. I saw the day had started, saw it was early RVS, and decided to peace out until there was something more substantial. Normally I wouldn't mind messing around but I feel this setup needs to be played strategically so it's better for me to project Seriousness. I'm satisfied with what's been posted now to form reads, though. Going to start writing those up now.

despite finding the reasoning in his last post somewhat odd, I actually like Clover as town here - his push on guiltylion feels genuine with the way he's investigating his stances rather than trying to push on something cheap.

I like that guiltylion actually bothered to investigate my activity, on first pass I thought he was town but on a reread didn't like his back and forth with clover as much. I'm tired so my thinking is not the best. Still shows more evidence of tying to be proactive than most.

If I could confidently townread Blair I'd declare the game to be won already, but I can't - the early excessive setup talk comes across as avoiding scumhunting, and felt like she hands out townreads too easily in #40 and #73.

Dunnstral has been fillery, devoid of content, with a rather awkward start. Don't see what other people are seeing in the townread there. I'll be reading Micro 639 to see if that's just his meta/if he's easy lynchbait, though.

T-Bone's opening was fillery/useless, lot of talk about the setup and past games. Do kind of like his empty vote on Dunn, though, becuase I didn't like his start either, but it does look off given he started the game similarly.

Kanna: really fillery start, plus a weak sheep of clover's vote on guiltylion while only committing to "I kind of agree" in #67. probably the scummiest of everyone who's posted.

These two posts wouldn't be scummy on their own, but together they reek.

Maxwell recognizes how little substance there is to draw reads from in early RVS, so he skips it altogether so he can wait to jump in until there is enough content to post more substantial reads.

He then shades multiple players for "fillery start

," "useless content," and weak reads -

a conversation he can only have unironically because he avoided RVS himself.

Basically, he skipped RVS because making something from nothing is hard, then shows up and says, "They tried to make something from nothing, pretty weak start, maybe scummy?"

If he genuinely believes weak openings are scum tells, that might explain why he avoided RVS althogether. It feels like he avoided early game so he could make pushes like this without any risk of looking hypocritical.

[Blair]

Did everyone take my post about Lion calling him a newbie? I guess I need to explain better.

Since you were responding to my question here, your intent wasn't the focus of my question - the important point was that he interpreted it that way, and felt obligated to address it.

...But yes, it definitely did come across that way. You explicitly compared his play to newbie play, but that's not the main reason - it's because your responses to him felt very... teachy? Educational? You were talking to him like you felt you needed to explain the game to him.

[Blair]

If he genuinely believes weak openings are scum tells, that might explain why he avoided RVS althogether. It feels like he avoided early game so he could make pushes like this without any risk of looking hypocritical.

I like this reasoning overall I think

My one hangup rn is, if Maxwell is scum and (presumably) trying to survive, why handout a townread on rozyroz so immediately? If he's scum and rozyroz is town that's a fairly easy avenue to throw shade or pressure, Dunnstral already highlighted it, why does he instead opt for a townread which might make it harder for him to vote there later?

This defense hinges on the assumption that scum don't like giving out town reads, because those town reads will somehow "trap" them later in the game.

Townies flip their reads around all the time, often for dubious reasons, so I'm not sure it's a valid tell - I don't think scum!Maxwell would be afraid of "trapping" himself in a Rozyroz townread based on that singular post. He can, and probably will, change that read multiple times, regardless of alignment.

[Blair]

I see Blair has already made the same point as myself in post 111 neato.

You and GuiltyLion are the only players who actually acknowledged that post even existed.

Quoting it again for visibility:

Guilty as charged. I saw the day had started, saw it was early RVS, and decided to peace out until there was something more substantial. Normally I wouldn't mind messing around but I feel this setup needs to be played strategically so it's better for me to project Seriousness. I'm satisfied with what's been posted now to form reads, though. Going to start writing those up now.

despite finding the reasoning in his last post somewhat odd, I actually like Clover as town here - his push on guiltylion feels genuine with the way he's investigating his stances rather than trying to push on something cheap.

I like that guiltylion actually bothered to investigate my activity, on first pass I thought he was town but on a reread didn't like his back and forth with clover as much. I'm tired so my thinking is not the best. Still shows more evidence of tying to be proactive than most.

If I could confidently townread Blair I'd declare the game to be won already, but I can't - the early excessive setup talk comes across as avoiding scumhunting, and felt like she hands out townreads too easily in #40 and #73.

Dunnstral has been fillery, devoid of content, with a rather awkward start. Don't see what other people are seeing in the townread there. I'll be reading Micro 639 to see if that's just his meta/if he's easy lynchbait, though.

T-Bone's opening was fillery/useless, lot of talk about the setup and past games. Do kind of like his empty vote on Dunn, though, becuase I didn't like his start either, but it does look off given he started the game similarly.

Kanna: really fillery start, plus a weak sheep of clover's vote on guiltylion while only committing to "I kind of agree" in #67. probably the scummiest of everyone who's posted.

These two posts wouldn't be scummy on their own, but together they reek.

Maxwell recognizes how little substance there is to draw reads from in early RVS, so he skips it altogether so he can wait to jump in until there is enough content to post more substantial reads.

He then shades multiple players for "fillery start

," "useless content," and weak reads -

a conversation he can only have unironically because he avoided RVS himself.

Basically, he skipped RVS because making something from nothing is hard, then shows up and says, "They tried to make something from nothing, pretty weak start, maybe scummy?"

If he genuinely believes weak openings are scum tells, that might explain why he avoided RVS althogether. It feels like he avoided early game so he could make pushes like this without any risk of looking hypocritical.

(Though I do not believe for even a moment that Maxwell, who has otherwise given detailed responses to everyone, did not see this post about him)

[Blair]

There's something off-putting about how many times you've shaded Clover while voting for someone (and pushing the closest thing to an RVS case against them!) who hasn't entered the thread yet.

Is it because Maxwell is in the corner and Clover isn't? Because you're ostensibly scumreading Clover hard enough to solicit a vote but you're withholding it for reasons that aren't clear to me.

Why ask GuiltyLion this question only to provide him with an answer?

I was implying that it was a pretty bad answer. The fact that he rolled with it caught me off guard.

[Blair]

I'm agreeing with a lot of Dunnstral and TBone's posting on page 5.

"I'm agreeing with

a lot of

" implies "but not quite all of" - what specifically do you agree with?

[Blair]

Lynching on the sides day 1 is just suboptimal though, best play here is to get two confident townreads in adjacent squares and

lynch the corner opposite to them.

lynching him day 1 is obviously optimal for me, but

I'm not arrogant enough to include myself in my own survivor pool

Politifact Truth-o-Meter™ determined this statement to be:

Spoiler:

When compared to the game board (and your own stated strategy), your scumreads are pretty conveniently placed:

maxwell ​	Clover Ebi ​	GuiltyLion ​
T-Bone ​	Celeste ​	Blair ​
Rozyroz ​	Kanna ​	Dunnstral ​

Yet you felt the need, completely unprompted, to blurt out otherwise.

[Blair]

Damn you, that did not come up in preview while I was typing all that.

[Blair]

an end board with blair/cat scartch/dunnstral on it is supbar as I don't find any of those players to be towny.

Well, at least it still fits.

[Blair]

I just posted a plan that guarantees my own lynch day 3. You, I definitely want dead, though.

I think you're smart enough to know people won't find a plan that starts with "Let's lynch this player whom I am townreading, and about whom I feel guilty because they are so new" to be very persuasive.

I don't think you really want it to happen, because you framed it intentionally terribly.

P-edit: I stand corrected, someone did sheep you on lynching your townread.

[Blair]

He isn't townreading all the corners, though. So "What if all the corners are town" doesn't apply to his internal logic.

[Blair]

He isn't townreading all the corners, though. So "What if all the corners are town" doesn't apply to his internal logic.

isn't he though? Nothing in his last few posts indicates a scumread on Dunn or myself

...

an end board with blair/cat scartch/dunnstral on it is supbar as I don't find any of those players to be towny.

...

I may be tunneling.

I find increasingly lately that I am usually tunneling.

[Blair]

If I accept that Maxwell actually wants to sell this plan, then he can really only be scum with GuiltyLion or Clover. GuiltyLion is more likely, because Max can't guarantee that everyone will follow his Day 2 plan just because they followed Day 1- and if T-Bone were lynched Day 2*instead of CSF, that would jeopardize Clover, but still not GuiltyLion.

It's weird to think scum would suggest a plan that lynches themselves - but if it saves their partner, then it is less weird than a townie proposing a plan that lynches their townread Day 1 and themselves Day 3, when they could have proposed the mirror image of that plan and lynched their scumread Day 1 and their townread Day 3 (I would rather lynch a town read than lynch confirmed town [self] under most circumstances).

[Blair]

It's completely irrelevant to consider though, because if I'm scum (I'm not), I get lynched day 3, and you can adjust your views as to who my partner is based on my flip. I'll flip town, though, so you don't need to worry about that in the slightest.

Yeah... I'd rather not wait until 3p lylo to start sorting that out, sorry.

If you're really, truly, absolutely confident I'm scum, then take a death pact: I get lynched day 1, and when I flip town, town lynches rozy, forces the kill onto t-bone, and you get lynched day 3. If you're confident, no problem, right?

Spoiler:

(Spoiler Alert: He won't flip town)

[Blair]

I did accept it. You quoted my acceptance.

[Blair]

I think Max is town here and want to talk to Blair on it

If you can free me from this death tunnel I'm all ears, but I'm having a hard time seeing Max's posts as coming from town in good faith.

[Blair]

@T-bone

I moved my vote from Dunnstral to another corner because Dunnstral's paranoia pinged townie to me. Context is key in this case - not much had happened yet. It would be disingenuous to conflate the reason I moved my vote with the reason I am still voting for Maxwell now - which is well documented and I'm sure everyone is tired of hearing it.

[Blair]

VOTE: beeboy
I believe Rozyroz was mafia

Guiltylion looks to be playing like they play as town... which they often are
Maxwell seems fine to me

I don't believe you unless this is POE but you're hedging your reads on all the other corners.
You can't believe a slot with 2 posts is scum when said slot replaced out after 2 irl days.

Idk not vibing with this.

Yeah, I agree that it looks like a reach - but it's kind of a townie reach? How does scum!Dunnstral benefit from townreading the opposite corner and scumreading an adjacent corner? That's a bit too risky to be a manufactured read.

[Blair]

I opened the game expressing I wanted to roll scum, I have 24 hours left, reasonable to assume I am not just opening the game in 2 or saving myself in that time.

I'm not following you here - what are you saying?

[Blair]

I think Max is town here and want to talk to Blair on it

If you can free me from this death tunnel I'm all ears, but I'm having a hard time seeing Max's posts as coming from town in good faith.

Max has little to no people he can be partners with in my eyes. The only way we'd lose to Max scum in your eyes is if 1 of me/T-bone are scum. Are you worried about that?

Why are we ruling out GuiltyLion? Am I missing something obvious?

[Blair]

Why haven't you commented on the fact you think I could be scum when about half the playerlist is townreading me. Shouldn't that worry you?

[Blair]

Can anyone succinctly explain why Dunnstral is being so widely scumread? It's becoming a pervasive view and I just can't see it at all.

I've played in two games with scum!Dunnstral *very* recently, and I correctly identified him pre-flip in both. Dunnstral is town. Stop being silly and sheep me.

Maxwell and I had a deal, it's... telling that there is so much resistance to it.

[Blair]

[Blair]

And to everyone townreading Maxwell: Do you believe my arguments are completely baseless? Everything Maxwell has done has been townie?

Please name at least one solid point I've made so I know people are at least reading my posts.

[Blair]

Was your death pact a bluff? Because it feels like a bluff.

[Blair]

[Blair]

Please show me where I have been averse to doing so.

It's equally strange, by the way, that someone who entered the game scumreading me for analyzing the game board immediately began plotting to lynch their town read *for the game board*

[Blair]

(Spoiler Alert: He cannot show me doing so, because he is lying)

[Blair]

(Spoiler Alert²: He is lying, because he is scum)

[Blair]

You can stop frantically searching my ISO for something you can distort and just claim scum if you would like. You're halfway there already.

It's easier this way.

[Blair]

Well, I have work to get done today. I'll be back later to accept your intellectual surrender.

To everyone else: Sheep me

[Blair]

And to everyone townreading Maxwell: Do you believe my arguments are completely baseless? Everything Maxwell has done has been townie?

Please name at least one solid point I've made so I know people are at least reading my posts.

Survey Says: No, no one is reading my posts. At least that explains this Orwellian gamestate.

I'm the second highest poster in this thread but everyone bar Clover is refusing to engage me in good faith.

Dunnstral is prob town, Clover is obv town, scum team is in {Maxwell | GuiltyLion / T-Bone}. They'll push you to mislynch Dunnstral today and Beeboy tomorrow, then Clover Day 3.

But we're putting Dunnstral at L-1 because we're so sure that Beeboy/CSF are scum (Beeboy maaaybeee but CSF has barely posted so this is a weird reach everyone has arrived at unanimously for some reason) and Blair is spooky too because ~reasons~ like how she wanted to talk game theory in the third total post of RVS and then responded to direct questions about that post, because apparently town!Blair ignores those questions to focus on scumhunting instead - which Maxwell claims she wasn't doing while *simultaneously* claiming that she had too many townreads based on sparse reasoning (almost as if there were *gasp* sparsely any posts yet), a problem Maxwell only avoided by deliberately lurking out of RVS so he could push terribad cases like these without being a complete hypocrite.

You see that mess of a run on sentence? You see what you made me do? You probably didn't read it anyway.

Look, I get it. I understand why some of you are sheeping this - some of you believe it and some of you are scum. But there are three townies minimum supporting this dumpster fire. I'm the only one pushing an actual case on anyone (yes, it's there, please go read my posts), while multiple townies coalesce around the same reads based on ostensibly ~nothing~ and I get repeatedly shaded for tunneling on obvscum.

I never want to become the sort of player who blames losses on bad towns, clearly I could have communicated something better or scum are just far more persuasive in this game than I have been; if it's the latter then well played and I respect it. I should have read the room better or something, I don't know. I'm going to take a step back here before I become a bad faith townie.

UNVOTE: Maxwell

I'll vote wherever you want me to for anyone outside my PoE who can summarize my Maxwell case accurately. Read my damn posts and I'll sheep you. The bar really is that low.

[Blair]

My offer still stands.

[Blair]

This much, at least, is clear: Scum were willing to clearly incriminate CSF to incentivize a GL lynch today.

Either CSF is scum and lynching GL was so important to her that she was willing to out herself, or she's town and scum really didn't want an X in Beeboy's square for some reason? Or she's town and scum really don't want an O in CSF's square?

[Blair]

It was effectively 50/50 if we would lynch Beeboy or GuiltyLion today assuming scum killed Celeste. They deviated from that to avoid that coin flip.

[Blair]

I'm speaking from the board here. Not whatever specific plans were suggested yesterday - scum don't know if those would have actually been followed any better than we do.

To put it more accurately, I suppose I should have said "50/50 between killing off the bottom row or the rightmost column" but the idea is similar.

Everyone only reads my posts or talks to me at all to nitpick without engaging any of my ideas in good faith. I'd chalk it up to a me problem if this were my typical experience on this site, but it definitely isn't, so there's something more behind the thread dynamics in this game.

[Blair]

Best I can tell, A {CSF | T-Bone/Max/Clover} scum team is the only solve that benefits from this kill. It's the only way that they could reliably salvage a 5p lylo that was looking increasingly unlikely for them.

Looking at the three of them, T-Bone seems unlikely because this interaction would be a really strange SvS event in a game where scum have day talk:

I think lynching a corner is still optimal though

Vote: Dunnstral

why this?

CSF/Clover makes this another really awkward (these posts were consecutive) SvS:

Oh I should VOTE: GuiltyLion

VOTE: GuiltyLion
I kind of agree. @Guilty; if you pointed out so many things, why did you default to voting for 2 people who haven't shown up?

I know everyone is tired of me ringing this bell (I'm even a little disappointed that investigating this avenue only changed one of my reads), but this post really feels like Maxwell was waiting things out to see if momentum might shift away from Dunnstral before it became evident that that was where town was headed and he eventually jumped in and starting pushing it to blend in:

Lynching on the sides day 1 is just suboptimal though, best play here is to get two confident townreads in adjacent squares and lynch the corner opposite to them. Town can direct the kills from that point forward so that only those 2 players survive.

why aren't you voting Dunnstral?

Actually don't terribly see a need to vote at this point in time, I think my words are enough to get my views across and the vote should be more about the optimal play rather than anything else. I still find dunnstral somewhat suspicious, although his posts on the last page are a little bit better, and lynching him day 1 is obviously optimal for me, but I'm not arrogant enough to include myself in my own survivor pool especially when it seems most of the game doesn't townread me. I'm perfectly okay with putting myself in line for elimination as it means I'll flip town and hopefully my views will be trusted - There's 7 other players and I should at least be able to pick out 2 as town.

I really don't see a scenario here where GuiltyLion is scum and I don't see a scenario where CSF isn't scum (if she's town then the scum team did this for no reason because the outcomes for all other possible pairings are the same, I think?)

Am I missing anything?

[Blair]

Why does he make post 297 as scum with CSF?

On the other hand, this would be a very easy post to make if they had already decided they were killing Beeboy and making this route unattractive Day 2.

You raise some fair points, I just can't see Clover/CSF though so if Maxwell is Town then T-Bone has to be scum unless you're some sort of weird scum martyr just trying to get CSF to lylo.

CSF is conf-scum though, no?

P-edit: Yeah, that was a weak rebuttal in context.

[Blair]

CSF/T-Bone and CSF/Maxwell are the only solves that make sense to me at this point. I'm definitely tunneling on Max, I'm just not sure if that should automatically make me wrong.

You seem to be zeroing in on CSF/T-Bone, which if I squint a little, I can see.

[Blair]

Serious Question (and yes I know this prolongs my own life by a phase) - What's the worst way things could go wrong if we did the thing scum seem to be trying to stop us from doing anyway, and lynch the conf-scum today?

[Blair]

How is CSF town here, though? If CSF is town then scum gave up the middle and left a confirmed townie alive for no change in their own circumstances at all?

[Blair]

Meta is (still) trash.

The way it is usually used (as a scum or town tell), yes. He was offering meta as a null tell, though, which is pretty much the only legitimate application of meta.

If your argument is "This is evidence because GuiltyLion would do this as scum" then "I would also do it as town, here is proof" is a valid rebuttal.

[Blair]

If you and Blair are not scum, then tomorrow is LyLo and your thoughts as to who is scum remaining among the 4 of us is what matters!

PoE is: {CSF | Max / T-Bone}

[Blair]

uhhhh Clover buddy

In what universe does {CSF / Clover} make 66 and 67?

[Blair]

Meta = Bad

WIFOM = Brilliant

[Blair]

The Celeste shot is probably the worst from where I'm standing, because it leaves a lylo with more than one of my PoE alive. But since I'm dead in that scenario, my PoE is less important anyway so maybe that doesn't matter.

[Blair]

Is there a reason we shouldn't lynch Celeste today, forcing scum to nightkill Max, then we lynch T-Bone (Both of CSF's potential partners die this way!) then scum kills me and Guilty and Clover lynch CSF for the win? What am I missing?

[Blair]

I want it because both partner picks for CSF flip and we walk into lylo with caught!scum

I die either way so I'm not sure what you're implying

[Blair]

CSF is conf-scum, this strategy lynches one of her plausible partners and kills the other, then brings us to lylo with conf-scum.

Alternatively we just straight up lynch conf-scum today, but then we no longer control the game board.

VOTE: Celeste

The problem with lynching GuiltyLion today (aside from him being lock town) is we go into 5 player lylo where we either roll the dice on Maxwell/T-Bone or lynch conf-scum CSF, in which case we roll the dice the next day in 3p lylo.

[Blair]

Good thing it isn't!

[Blair]

It feels like a waste to let lylo become a toss-up when we already have one conf-scum.

[Blair]

I've been saying since RVS (back when I was being scummy for talking strategy, apparently) that the goal is to lynch in such a way that we force scum to nightkill our PoE for us. That's what this plan does. Let them narrow the field for us so all we have to do is lynch CSF in 3p lylo.

[Blair]

Why is GuiltyLion still in your PoE?

In fact, why do you keep insisting on expanding our PoE as wide as possible? You have Clover in there, too.

[Blair]

I'm trying to game solve, sorry I stepped on your "everyone but the IC and myself" PoE.

[Blair]

At some point we have to commit to actual reads and make decisions based on those reads. We can set ourselves up in such a way that we definitely win if our PoE contains the scum team, and of course we'll lose if it doesn't. Casting a wide net where everyone but the innocent child is still part of our solve doesn't accomplish that.

[Blair]

What's the toss up? You're town, Clover's town, we force T-Bone and Maxwell eliminations and lynch CSF in lylo.

Unless you see a scenario where CSF is town here, I don't see a toss up.

[Blair]

If you believe CSF/Blair is what's happening, then what sort of plan was this?

From my perspective there almost certainly has to be scum in the right column

Does anyone object to me just voting GL

The nightkill pushes us into lynching GuiltyLion, then CSF calls for lynching GuiltyLion, and you're positing that I could be scum with her and the brilliant plan here was... what, exactly?

An excerpt from CSF/Blair Universe's Scum PT:

Blair:

Shoot! They lynched Dunnstral, we are doomed! What do we DO?!

CSF:

I know! Let's kill Beeboy. That way they their plan to lynch me tomorrow will be foiled!

Blair:

But won't that just force them to lynch the right column, bringing about my imminent doom? How do we prevent my imminent doom?

CSF:

We could push for a Celeste lynch!

Blair:

Hmm, maybe. This whole plan really incriminates you, though. How do we prevent town from noticing that?

CSF:

I know! You could call me conf-scum all day and build your entire PoE around me being scum!

Blair:

Uh- okay... so we're just straight up bussing you to save me, then? I guess that might work... How do we prevent them from just lynching GuiltyLion to force a nightkill on me, though?

CAF:

Hmmm... I've got it! I'll advocate for exactly that and not support your plan at all!

Blair:

...I hate you.

[Blair]

I don't see what's wrong with just playing it safe and ruling out any scum!GL/scum!Blair possibilities while keeping our conftown alive, then lynching into CSF and letting Maxwell/T-Bone/Clover evaluate the game in 3p based on all of eachother's contributions so far.

1. Because we can already use our deductive reasoning and general mental faculties to rule out scum!GL and scum!Blair, given that CSF is scum (which she evidently is).

2. Because I would not envy Clover in that lylo.

[Blair]

like, for example, you're kinda just defaulting to clearing me now given that I am the best lynch today, but what if I were scum with someone in maxwell/T-Bone? Why are you not concerned at all with that possibility - we would win given your plan

Because CSF is obvscum - do you disagree? Also kind of awkward that you're trying to sell me on you!scum

[Blair]

The IC dies in all of these scenarios and it's all being planned out irrespective of their hypothetical input so I don't really understand why that keeps coming up as a point against me.

[Blair]

We have over 24 hours left in the phase and suddenly just because Celeste self-votes now you're in a rush? What happened to the importance of us taking advantage of our unforced phases to consider our options and the immeasurable value of the IC's input?

Remember when T-Bone and Maxwell thought it was super scummy to disregard the value of the IC because we would want them alive so they could weigh in on our options? Pepperidge Farm remembers.

The desperation that suddenly reared its ugly head when Celeste cast her vote is painting a new picture. Maxwell/T-Bone is looking more believable than before - almost like scum pissed they thought they had a win lined up from Day 1 and they overplayed their hand.

CSF scum still makes the most sense due to the nightkill, which I don't really understand coming from just Max/T-Bone, but that nightkill is literally the only reason I'm doubting that solve based on the interactions of the last page and a half.

[Blair]

I didn't say anything about Clover. What a strange rebuttal.

[Blair]

I guess maxwell, clover, and I are scum together weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!111

I love to forfeit autowin as scum for no good reason, throwing games is my passion

[Blair]

Wow I can't believe Max and T-Bone surrendered!

[Blair]

Props to Blair for trying every angle she could think of before throwing in the towel.

I'll never get over how close we actually were to pulling it off, either!

[Blair]

If you had actually talked the town into lynching the IC and instantly losing the game by doing so, that would have been worth a scummy nom.

We were so close... we even convinced the IC... CSF was ready to hammer, we only needed one more.