Micro 948: Noughts and Crosses Blitz [Game over!]

[GuiltyLion]

hey everyone!

So I actually played in a run of this setup before (the one Dunn was in, as well as our glorious mod Umlaut), where scum didn't kill the IC n1. Here's the game:
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=84&t=68044

They still managed to win because we still hadn't flipped scum by 5p so we couldn't just win the tic tac toe game outright without losing to mafia majority if we lynched wrong. We hit scum in 5p but then lost in LYLO and I'm still a bit salty about it, hence why I jumped at the chance to play this again!

I agree we should lynch in the corners today

[GuiltyLion]

tbh i came in thinking we were just going to play optimal noughts and crosses, but there's some good points being raised. is the best way to find mafia and "not lose" at noughts and crosses then?

Kanna, which posts/points specifically changed your view? I'm a bit suspicious that you speak about these 'good points' vaguely as opposed to directly

[GuiltyLion]

I think realistically this isn't something we can really push and if Blair is scum this isn't gonna be the selling point.

this phrasing also pinged me, because it sounds like Clover Ebi is thinking more about what is acceptable to push/sell instead of what may be indicative of alignment

[GuiltyLion]

Blair - see the game at this point:

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 9#p8280539

Here, we have 5 alive, including the IC. The optimal tictactoe Lynch would have been Lane, forcing a win next move by lynching either McMenno or Javajoe, but this would have lost because Lane was town

[GuiltyLion]

yeah, that was unclear, sorry.

I think Dunnstral's indignance here is loosely townie

[GuiltyLion]

as of this post, Maxwell AND rozyroz were both last seen online at 6:09 pm PST (my time), which was after day start at 5:50 PST, yet neither posted in the thread.

it's a little weird that they were both last online at literally the same minute, I'm wondering if that has to do with how the forum checks for activity, but regardless, both can be charged with seeing their day start PM and electing not to post in the thread! I find this suspicious!

VOTE: maxwell

[GuiltyLion]

@Guiltylion; (do you remember me, maybe?) it was mostly these

Yes, I do remember you, glad to see you again!

And I think I understand your point about how those posts changed your view, thank you for the clarification

[GuiltyLion]

anyway I'm gonna play some Rocket League now but I'll check thread occasionally tonight and do more stuff later, remember y'all it's a Blitz so we owe it to each other to be a bit more present/vocal about availability compared to the usual 10-14 day deadlines

[GuiltyLion]

I feel like these posts by Guilty don't feel like genuine attempts to find scum. It feels like he's nitpicking and trying to find reasons to scumread people.

Why do you feel like they're not genuine? I fully agree they are nitpicky, but it is early game. Finding reasons to scumread people is exactly what town should be doing!

Heck, the last post you can't really even defend against. Really the only post here I can somewhat nod at is the one against myself. Kanna and Max/Roz just feels off to me. Dunnstrals reaction to T-bone rubbed me the wrong way as well, but maybe I just don't like how defensive it was.

The "somewhat nod at is the one against myself" feels hilariously self-conscious scum. If you're town you should not find any reasoning against you to be good! Believable maybe, but why would you agree that your own posting is suspicious, instead of trying to correct me for why it is not?

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: GuiltyLion
I kind of agree. @Guilty; if you pointed out so many things, why did you default to voting for 2 people who haven't shown up?

because we are lynching in a corner today, and I find Dunnstral to be townie

Also i dislike the activity tell just because i hate it when it's used against me. I'm not sure if it's AI either

Do you think town or scum is more likely to see that the day has started, after confirming pretty quickly after role PMs have been sent out, and then not post anything at all?

I do not think it is likely that both are scum, so obviously it is possible that town would do the same, but I think it is a good place to start!

[GuiltyLion]

It feels like he's nitpicking and trying to find reasons to scumread people

on this, I would also point you to see how I did not escalate or push further once Kanna gave me satisfying explanation! I think she is more likely town than scum after our exchange

[GuiltyLion]

Dunnstrals reaction to T-bone rubbed me the wrong way as well, but maybe I just don't like how defensive it was.

I also do not like this hedge! Do you see yourself voting Dunnstral today or not? Take a stand sir, this feels like giving yourself room to vote there later!

[GuiltyLion]

Is it because Maxwell is in the corner and Clover isn't? Because you're ostensibly scumreading Clover hard enough to solicit a vote but you're withholding it for reasons that aren't clear to me.

yes, this is exactly it

[GuiltyLion]

I agree we should lynch in the corners today

VOTE: GuiltyLion
I kind of agree. @Guilty; if you pointed out so many things, why did you default to voting for 2 people who haven't shown up?

because we are lynching in a corner today, and I find Dunnstral to be townie

[GuiltyLion]

I think the best way to put it is I don't think someone would have their expectations as high as you're acting like they are. Thinking Kanna is sus because she didn't say what those good points are right away or, the fact two people didn't post in a game right away. One of those points you can't even make a defense for. It's...off to me.

I am not interested in whether or not one "can make a defense" for a point, I am interested in finding scum! I am going to pressure continue to pressure until I am satisfied I have done the best I can to create useful content to sort people and find reads I feel comfortable with.

I also cannot parse your first sentence here, the meaning escapes me. Whose expectations are you referring to, mine? And what about these "expectations" is not likely to come from a town!GuiltyLion?

Please do not handwave reasoning with vague meaningless statements like "this is off", that is how scum like to push mislynches! Either ask me questions to help you understand, or make an explicit claim for why you think my actions are indicative of my scum alignment. All I'm hearing from you here is "I didn't like your reasons for pressuring people", and I feel that is just as reach-y as "you confirmed and checked your role PM and didn't post", if not moreso, because it is

quite often

when playing mafia that you disagree or dislike reasoning that townies give.

The post you made is 'true' that I was trying to stop people from making any type of scumread on Blair for her chart, that's why I can nod along. Do I think that's bad or AI? No, but that's not for me to decide.

Ah but that's not at all why I pushed you? I said the specific phrasing you used when you talked about why we can't scumread Blair made it sound like your mindset was thinking in terms of justified reasons to push someone moreso than justified reasons to evaluate Blair's alignment.

It's actually a similar problem I have with your push on me! You say my reasons are "reaches", but that does not mean that I do not believe they are valid reasons to pressure people! If my beliefs are genuine, I am town, regardless of whether they're "justifiable" or not.

And what is wrong with having a hedge? I don't like a post by Dunnstral so I'm going to wait and see more of his posting. So in theory, yes you could say I am 'giving myself room' as you say. Taking a solid stand at the moment would simply be a lie and I see no reasn to pretend I have a solid stand on a player. Not all people can just get a read that easily.

If you don't have a read, why are you taking a "wait and see" approach instead of talking to Dunnstral directly yourself? Why throw out some vague shade but not bother to actually engage with or pressure Dunnstral? We have fewer than three days, time is not on our side.

Blair, I am v surprised you said this is "so town it hurts". It's super easy for scum to pretend to not have a read

[GuiltyLion]

Townreading one other corner while putting up some kind of scumread that the other two slots can't defend against as well. Am I the only one getting bad vibes from this whole thing? If I am, I'll back off so do let me know.

Why are you speaking for Maxwell and Rozyroz? They are entirely capable of defending themselves once they start playing!

[GuiltyLion]

Clover, I will also engage you on this front:

If I can show you many, many, many, town games where I, as town, pressure people within the first 3 pages for "reaches" or molehills, and additionally

get flak

for doing so much like you are doing here, will you concede that your point is NAI? Because I am confident that a simple meta search will back me up here

[GuiltyLion]

I ammmm willing to reconsider Clover I think

not a fan of you casting me as a newbie tho I'll have you know I have played an

extensive

amount of games here over 5 years thank you

I haven't liked maxwell's posts so far

[GuiltyLion]

I ammmm willing to reconsider Clover I think

What changed for you since #79?

Mainly the way he obstinately stuck to a few points regarding the whole "it's too early to think things are scummy" attitude (which I still disagree with, but it's starting to feel more evident that he believes in it) and the way he flat out rejected that it would change his read because I can meta myself and show my aggressive nitpicking in plenty of past town games. That makes me think he genuinely isn't aware that I'm town.

Also Blair townreading him was kinda giving me a lil skeevy vibes too!

[GuiltyLion]

Your initial qualm against the Innocent Child was her lack of specifying reasons. It seems she could've answered your question here in many ways as mafia, since there are plenty of reasonable posts to reference, yet we seem awfully happy to hand waive our previous suspicions now, don't we?

the thing that changed my mind was the posts she referenced of T-Bone's made sense as to why her thinking changed from "let's play optimal TTT" to "oh we still have to play mafia and aim for a TTT draw"

THAT SAID, now that I went back to that exchange I'm kinda wondering why she suggested that she thought we'd just play pure TTT with our lynches and not try to lynch/kill scumreads to begin with

[GuiltyLion]

I am tired and suddenly everyone feels town. I still think Dunnstral doesn't open the way he did as scum, and bits of maxwell's reads post felt honest, but I'm gonna sleep on this game and come back with fresh eyes tomorrow

[GuiltyLion]

Finally, both of them are middle blocks like me, so while not completely off the table (because again, while corners are optimal it doesn't matter that much) I wouldn't feel strongly enough on page 2 to want to lynch them.

Hold up, apologies if I missed this somewhere but doesn't it matter a lot? If we open with an edge, while we can still force a draw with certain moves, we can also be forced into a tictactoe loss with wrong moves, which means we're giving ourselves a very tight lynchpool on D2.

[GuiltyLion]

If he genuinely believes weak openings are scum tells, that might explain why he avoided RVS althogether. It feels like he avoided early game so he could make pushes like this without any risk of looking hypocritical.

I like this reasoning overall I think

My one hangup rn is, if Maxwell is scum and (presumably) trying to survive, why handout a townread on rozyroz so immediately? If he's scum and rozyroz is town that's a fairly easy avenue to throw shade or pressure, Dunnstral already highlighted it, why does he instead opt for a townread which might make it harder for him to vote there later?

[GuiltyLion]

B-tier: Clover Ebi
C-tier: Blair, T-Bone, Dunnstral
D-tier: maxwell
E-tier: GuiltyLion, Kanna

VOTE: Kanna

Now, now, you call yourself an Innocent Child? You may want to reconsider.

in the same vein as my post to T-Bone, I really think you should be voting me or Maxwell if these are your reads, lynching a corner is much better for us today and I don't think vanity votes on Kanna are gonna force scum to do things in the way that voting myself or Maxwell would. I do agree I was prob too eager to give her a townread last night and she deserves more pressure, but it'd be better to do that by forcing her to analyze my/maxwell's content

[GuiltyLion]

Correction: none of those players have said enough to make me suspicious of them

I'm thinking a lot about the likelihood of scum vs town RVS voting me and then making this correction 1-2 minutes later

I think overall I want to say it'd be

really bold

as scum to plan to just outright vote me, a leading wagon, and claim: a) that I haven't posted anything, and then b) actually, it's that nothing I've posted has made them suspicious. Because they would know if I'm lynched I'm going to flip town and everyone is gonna look at this vote and critique why it was made.

At the same time, how can town read the game and not be suspicious of anything anyone has posted?? Why would town RVS vote instead of trying to at least take a stand on something and advance the game, even if only to an incremental degree?

Does anyone have any really strong thoughts here? I'm probably landing on the 'newbie town' side, but it's odd enough that I can't rule it out as scum.

[GuiltyLion]

I think if Maxwell is scum, he's one of those "just try to emulate how you'd play as town" types and isn't bothering to plan for long term strategy in the game right now

and if he's town, I think it's decent odds rn that all four corners are town and scum is some combo of Kanna and one of Blair/T-Bone.

those be my latest thoughts, do with them what you will. I'll be around all day today

[GuiltyLion]

Finally, both of them are middle blocks like me, so while not completely off the table (because again, while corners are optimal it doesn't matter that much) I wouldn't feel strongly enough on page 2 to want to lynch them.

Hold up, apologies if I missed this somewhere but doesn't it matter a lot? If we open with an edge, while we can still force a draw with certain moves, we can also be forced into a tictactoe loss with wrong moves, which means we're giving ourselves a very tight lynchpool on D2.

actually wait I drank coffee and started thinking about this and I think it's not necessarily true, if first goes on an edge they still have some flexibility depending on where the NK goes, more than I originally was thinking at least

[GuiltyLion]

I'm not calling you a newbie! I just think your entire viewpoint on how people would play is something I would expect from one. If that makes sense.

[GuiltyLion]

Lynching on the sides day 1 is just suboptimal though, best play here is to get two confident townreads in adjacent squares and lynch the corner opposite to them. Town can direct the kills from that point forward so that only those 2 players survive.

why aren't you voting Dunnstral?

[GuiltyLion]

Actually don't terribly see a need to vote at this point in time, I think my words are enough to get my views across and the vote should be more about the optimal play rather than anything else. I still find dunnstral somewhat suspicious, although his posts on the last page are a little bit better, and lynching him day 1 is obviously optimal for me, but I'm not arrogant enough to include myself in my own survivor pool especially when it seems most of the game doesn't townread me. I'm perfectly okay with putting myself in line for elimination as it means I'll flip town and hopefully my views will be trusted - There's 7 other players and I should at least be able to pick out 2 as town.

ah you know actually when I asked this question I thought I was in your corner, not vice versa, my b

I still think you should be voting somewhere though... again this is a blitz, we have two days until deadline, town needs to be pushing and doing stuff as relentlessly as possible. There's not really any reason

not

to be voting

[GuiltyLion]

Seeking a replacement for Kanna. (I have a few folks in the replace-in queue for this game, so it may be a day or so before the slot is advertised in the Replacement Requests thread.)

if the replacement search goes on for longer than ~12+ hours, can we get a deadline pause at that point?

[GuiltyLion]

I was using that emoji just to be like an annoyed sideye, not to literally convey the 'igmeou' or imply it was scummy

[GuiltyLion]

and yeah it does assume rozyroz is town - because it's also assuming Maxwell is scum - if both of them are scum then it might also explain that play but that's extremely unlikely in a vacuum and would also mean town is in a really good position here and isn't really worth bothering with IMO

[GuiltyLion]

rambly thoughts inncoming:

I don't think I'm feeling maxwell scum and I agree wiping the rozy/cat scratch fever/dunn row should net at least one scum (I also agree likely CSF, I was similarly uninspired by their entry)

also Blair, on this:

This defense hinges on the assumption that scum don't like giving out town reads, because those town reads will somehow "trap" them later in the game.

Townies flip their reads around all the time, often for dubious reasons, so I'm not sure it's a valid tell - I don't think scum!Maxwell would be afraid of "trapping" himself in a Rozyroz townread based on that singular post. He can, and probably will, change that read multiple times, regardless of alignment.

you're not wrong here, but I think it doesn't address the specific point I was making (or at least, wanted to make) about why does scum!Maxwell throw out that particular townread at that particular time? No one was going to push him for

not

townreading rozyroz, it was an entirely questionable couple of posts, and rozyroz would be one of the more viable alternatives to himself if he's already established a 'townread' on me (and/or feels I'm hard to lynch / knows he'd look really dirty on my flip).

It just doesn't feel like a move that especially benefits a scum agenda or is likely to come from scum, unless scum!Maxwell is fully convinced that town!Maxwell would townread rozyroz there, which also just doesn't feel all that likely.

Further, in the post just above, he votes rozyroz while still claiming to townread her! that's fairly nuanced mentality to emulate as scum, and while a cynical/pessimistic interpretation of his post might be "now he knows he's cornered and needs to justify voting a townread", it just fundamentally feels genuine to me in both timing and execution.

If I'm wrong on CSF then yeah I can definitely conceive of scum!maxwell, but this plan sets him up as a D3 lynch and we're fine in that scenario too.

Plus, I also just don't see a partner for Maxwell rn, most people seem fine with his lynch, and while bussing is viable in this setup since the NKs/lynches become dictated by Xs and Os to a degree, it still overall seems to me like scum would have made a stronger effort to divert attention away from their partner and nobody has attempted that at all, not even maxwell himself.

VOTE: rozyroz

[GuiltyLion]

my overall reads are like this:

town: {Clover, maxwell, T-Bone}
meh: {Dunn, Rozy}
scum: {Blair, CSF}

[GuiltyLion]

I just posted a plan that guarantees my own lynch day 3. You, I definitely want dead, though.

I think you're smart enough to know people won't find a plan that starts with "Let's lynch this player whom I am townreading, and about whom I feel guilty because they are so new" to be very persuasive.

I don't think you really want it to happen, because you framed it intentionally terribly.

P-edit: I stand corrected, someone did sheep you on lynching your townread.

I mean you'd have a point here, if we were to completely ignore the set-up and how things would be likely to shake out if all four corners are town

[GuiltyLion]

T-Bone/Clover Ebi/GuiltyLion/Blair

I also would be curious to see if anyone disagrees with Maxwell about the succession of lynches/kills because they are worried that both scum might be in this particular grouping of 4 players

[GuiltyLion]

He isn't townreading all the corners, though. So "What if all the corners are town" doesn't apply to his internal logic.

isn't he though? Nothing in his last few posts indicates a scumread on Dunn or myself

In D1 here it makes sense to vote a slot you're vaguely townreading but not sold on when that's the best you can do of the three available corner slots to you, especially given that it means a slot you actually want dead but shouldn't lynch today (CSF) are likely to follow.

[GuiltyLion]

Max feels like he's playing to get the game solved than survive is my main worry with lynching him. Like if max is scum he's trying to set up his partner here not live.

this is exactly why Max is town

Why are you townreading Blair?

[GuiltyLion]

Guilty who is still my biggest scumread.

also not really following how I'm still your biggest scumread at this point

like if you step back and take a look at the game in the objective sense I've done much more to try to sort and solve than well over half the players in this game

[GuiltyLion]

hi beeboy!

your predecessor didn't give us a lot to go off!

but Maxwell and I (the two people who have pushed the game towards possibly lynching you) both gutfeel your slot as town yet simultaneously the safest/best lynch of the four corners, also a slot that strategically leads to a CSF death

I'd be most interested in your thoughts on:
1) lynching in the corners today
2) CSF/Blair/mayyyybe T-Bone slots

[GuiltyLion]

GL votes me for being a corner, he asks me a question which has a clear answer for me to say, kill a corner.
Then he asks me for 3 reads on middle players and doesn't ask me about any corner players. Feels like dissonance.
He is also pushing a range of players but is also only voting no posters for the most part. Feels very weird to me.

I feel like you're blending times where I'm concerned about the board and times where I'm concerned about the game

I asked you about those three players because I feel they're important slots to give reads on to get a sense of your overall view of the game state.

I have made two votes this game, one on Maxwell and one on rozyroz, and they are both corners. I have certainly pushed Clover and Kanna/CSF and Blair to a degree in varying degrees at different points, because I am finding the three of them important to sort. I will not vote any of them today because they are edges.

Why is any of that "weird"?

[GuiltyLion]

They probably push Guiltylion next

Scum is definitely setting up to push me later this game in some way. I'm kinda scared of a Clover/Blair/GL LYLO because I don't think town has a good chance of winning that as it stands. If there's a scum in Clover/Blair then they're buddying the other one.

[GuiltyLion]

Blair has made exact posts I would've made before I did. I just agree with a lot of her thought process and like the way she's handling the game.

this feels like a really bad reason to townread someone

[GuiltyLion]

(Because if the 5p has Guilty Lion in it I hope he would be lynched)

also

can you give an updated reason on why you think I am scum?

Like, we're well beyond my page 2 pushes which you considered reachy, what about the rest of my play since then has reinforced your scumread?

[GuiltyLion]

I've read along but I'm frankly too tired rn to respond to everything, I might post a little bit later but probably gonna just hit this hard in the morning (10-12 hours from now)

I do think that considering the game from 'which f3 do we prefer' is a good way of framing things. and on that note:

Personally I want the top left corner to be our lylo.

I think I am fine with this. I don't think want a Clover/GL/Blair LYLO as that feels like a loss

UNVOTE:

[GuiltyLion]

I'm trying to figure how worried I should be about a Clover/T-Bone team... I think T-Bone is pretty good odds of town but I kinda hate that by the time we learn both Blair and CSF's alignments it would be too late. if only Dunn/Blair were swapped on the board haha

however since it doesn't feel like T-Bone nor Clover engineered this plan, it's highly unlikely I think

[GuiltyLion]

Sort of bothered by how static clover's reads are

and yes his sticky scumread on me (while being my neighbor) makes me want to die

in the literal sense lmao

it's very questionable that somehow I of all people remain his strongest scumread

that reeks of trying to set up for LYLO

[GuiltyLion]

buuuut that's still like paranoia/worst case thinking I think

I think it's basically just Blair/CSF in like 50%+ of universes

[GuiltyLion]

EXAMPLE PLEASE IGNORE




No possible outcome isn't just a corner f3 right?
So shouldn't we be thinking about the best looking corner right now instead of best line to kill

actually another problem with this is if it's like a CSF/Clover team

[GuiltyLion]

what matter is that I am so clearly trying to game solve compared to CSF/Blair slots and you seem to refuse to acknowledge that in any sense

[GuiltyLion]

also you opened by asking for feedback on your scumread on me, then several players (Maxwell, Dunn) have quite explicitly townread me and yet that now doesn't seem to bother you at all

[GuiltyLion]

Why is townreading someone who has the same thought process as you bad?

So more on this:

I dunno about you, but I find as scum that it's not all that hard to fake a plausible town thought process to handling mechanics or responding to posts. The only thing scum can't fake is genuine

belief

in that thought process when challenged, because they know the conclusion is wrong. It's also hard as scum to make believable changes in your trajectory - this usually applies to later game days more than D1 - but do you really think Blair's tunnel on Maxwell still feels genuine to you? You don't even agree on your primary scumreads, what 'thought process' are you attributing to her that is unmistakably town?

[GuiltyLion]

Gl, why don't you think Clover and Blair are SvS?

The way they've locktowned each other so early on is not something I usually see from scum, I don't think Blair calls Clover 'obvtown' when I'm pushing on him and I don't think Clover doubles down so much on Blair if they are worried about how they'd look on the other's flip.

[GuiltyLion]

If you don't want to vote edges, why is you're instinct to ask me for reads on 3 edge players when you don't want me voting them ever.

I do want you potentially voting them on D2?? Why do you say 'ever' here?

I don't get it, it's weird because you're asking me for reads that you don't actually have a reason to care about.

You're filling space not seeking out my reads in a way to work with me if my answer somehow convinces you I am town.

I care because the edges matter a lot even if we're not lynching there today. This last sentence is just projection/assumption on your part

[GuiltyLion]

I think beeboy is still less town than Dunnstral but Dunnstral keeps Maxwell alive and gives us a shot at Blair who I see as higher priority to resolve than T-Bone

intent

, I'll be around for the day, this is just intent to say I'll hammer before deadline and to give people time for more thoughts

[GuiltyLion]

Blair tunneling Maxwell so desperately is a strange play if she's scum with anyone but CSF

[GuiltyLion]

CSF or beeboy, I guess

[GuiltyLion]

what do you all think of Blair's 330 that feels like scum desperation or nah? I'm prob tunneled but I think her insistence on maxwell being scum doesn't feel genuine

[GuiltyLion]

also I don't want beeboy tomorrow, I want CSF or Blair

[GuiltyLion]

I agree I am the best lynch here

I also generally agree that kill strongly points to CSF scum

but

I could see a Blair/T-Bone team trying that shot in hopes of a D2 CSF lynch for autowin, if I'm being paranoid

but yeah, flip me, then if Blair is scum she's caught, and if she's not then worst case scenario you have 5p LYLO with a conftown and your choice of lynch anywhere on the board

[GuiltyLion]

how much else do we need to discuss? I'm happy to self-vote whenever

[GuiltyLion]

I 100% disagree with maxwell lynch because that forces a D3 lynch onto me and is a loss if he's town

The reason you lynch me instead of anybody else here is it forces the scum NK onto Blair

if she flips town, I think you just gotta play out the 5p LYLO and decide what to do from there, I don't know if I advocate an immediate mindless CSF lynch though I do think it'd be still very likely she's scum.

This kill overall feels to me like a desperation move more than a 4D chess galaxy brain play. I don't think a team of Maxwell/Clover or Maxwell/T-Bone needs to kill beboy to win the long game. I think either:
a) CSF scum tried for WIFOM or
b) Blair w/ somebody in {Maxwell/Clover/T-Bone} afraid of losing in 3p was hoping we'd err and mislynch CSF today

[GuiltyLion]

Actually it occurs to me that if Blair actually is scum in this configuration, it's an automatic win regardless, we can form a tic-tac-toe safely.

Ah I hadn't thought of this tbh, that kinda makes me think Blair isn't scum after all lol

[GuiltyLion]

No, talk to me GL. Why this move? Why force us into a single move that preserves the IC to LyLo? This is not about Day 2, this is about Day 3. Why not Celeste, and then give us the choice of lynching the beeboy/CSF lover pair or the GL/Blair lover pair instead? Give me your ideas.

Here's the Day 3 player-list now. Bone, maxwell, Clover, CSF, and Celeste. Why force this 5?

I honestly don't know why scum did what they did, my guesses will only get you so far. I still think it's a desperation move - what was CSF to do here if she's scum? She can't just kill Celeste and then push for Blair as that will make it pretty obvious she's scum anyway. Maybe the hope was this sets them up for a better 5 somehow in terms of associations.

Another thing to consider - lynching me is the only way we can force the scum kill on N2 and have D3 flexibility. Lynching anywhere else means we forfeit control of either N2 or D3 or both, and that's clearly suboptimal

[GuiltyLion]

maybe scum just thought I'd be too arrogant to accept being a D2 lynch lol

[GuiltyLion]

You're either scum or confirmed town GuiltyLion

also just occurred to me how silly this phrasing is

[GuiltyLion]

maybe it's Clover/CSF after all and I've been the only voice of sanity/reason in a sea of mistaken townies calling him obvtown!

there's your answer T-Bone!

[GuiltyLion]

Word, I hear ya, I'll try to think of whether I have more useful things to say, but honestly the Dunn flip didn't change much for me.

I'll look into beeboy interactions since there may be some useful stuff there

[GuiltyLion]

It was effectively 50/50 if we would lynch Beeboy or GuiltyLion today assuming scum killed Celeste. They deviated from that to avoid that coin flip.

no it wasn't, we were always lynching CSF/Blair today, likely CSF imo

[GuiltyLion]

Hey Blair

383 is a really good post and I've realized there's no reason to treat you as scum at this point so I'll try to start working with you again

I think you're a little too quick to rule out T-Bone/CSF as a team based on that interaction. "Why did you vote the way you did" is a super softball distancing question that Kanna might have just thrown out of her own accord without talking with T-Bone. And I think T-Bone's play today feels a little too agenda-y or cognizant of the fact that he needs to set up for LYLO. Why is he trying to raise questions/confusion around the fact that I am the best possible Lynch today? Why did he refer to me as "either confirmed town or scum"? He's sinking in my reads quickly!

I agree with you though that the Clover/Kanna interaction is super awkward and unlikely SvS. Upon review, Clover is def town.

I think my problems with your maxwell points/cases all ultimately wind up to - you seem to assume maxwell is scum and then write the narrative explaining his play from there, while ignoring the equally plausible explanations for his posts as town. You did it again in 383. When I read maxwell he just strikes me as genuinely motivated to solve, his reasoning and trajectories in his pushes and votes feel consistent and earnest, and the timing of when he makes reads doesn't seem to suit an agenda. I'm really not seeing him as scum, especially given his response to you yesterday in 312.

[GuiltyLion]

like, let's start with maxwell townreading rozyroz and then myself in 113 and 122. We know now that for all intents and purposes, both slots are town. At the time both were also fairly viable mislynches.

Do you really think it's more likely that this was all a grand scum ploy to ensure that the opposite corner is lynched first? When he was still volunteering to lynch himself and later still pushing for rozyroz/beeboy lynch? Why does he make post 297 as scum with CSF? A Maxwell/CSF team has a clear path to winning this game after the Dunn Lynch -> kill Celeste, and then go all in for the Blair lynch - which I had already said I was open to! Why does he steer away from that option prior to the end of D1, and then overnight take the extra step to kill beeboy instead?

I think if you're paranoid, you can write up an agenda/narrative where he's a scum mastermind, but I think the simpler explanation is just that maxwell is town

[GuiltyLion]

Clover, I will also engage you on this front:

If I can show you many, many, many, town games where I, as town, pressure people within the first 3 pages for "reaches" or molehills, and additionally

get flak

for doing so much like you are doing here, will you concede that your point is NAI? Because I am confident that a simple meta search will back me up here

Obligatory meta is trash post.

I also want to rewind back to a T-Bone post that pinged me at the time, but I didn't think was worth pushing on, until now it's clear that we should try to solve in Maxwell/T-Bone/Clover

This feels a really disconnected reply to me, and here's why:

a) I agree that the way meta is used haphazardly across the site is trash and often useless

b) However, here I was making a very narrow/specific argument. Clover was scumreading me for making reachy pushes in early game. I was pointing out that I have a history of doing this as town, and a history of being scum read for doing so as well. My point was that if I can show times where I've done this as town, it's NAI. This is a narrow and justified use of meta IMO - to show that something someone thinks is indicative is actually not indicative.

c) T-Bone doesn't engage with that head-on in any direct or nuanced way, he just throws out an easy catchphrase. Further, why say this, how does it align with his read on me? He doesn't push me as scum or town early game, he's kinda null/wishy-washy on me, so what was the point of jumping in like this?

[GuiltyLion]

What's the worst way things could go wrong if we did the thing scum seem to be trying to stop us from doing anyway, and lynch the conf-scum today?

the worst case is if we're wrong on CSF and she's town, then it's auto-loss with Celeste NK unless I am scum, which I'm not

[GuiltyLion]

@Blair, lynching conftown is completely pointless if we can avoid it, also:

lynching me is the only way we can force the scum kill on N2 and have D3 flexibility. Lynching anywhere else means we forfeit control of either N2 or D3 or both, and that's clearly suboptimal

while the beeboy NK makes you unlikely scum, an argument like that is exactly what scum!Blair would say, so we can't trust it... also there's not really a reason to want to extend your life in this setup? why are you trying to change the plan?

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: GuiltyLion

love it when I can play to wincon by self-voting

[GuiltyLion]

Is there a reason we shouldn't lynch Celeste today, forcing scum to nightkill Max, then we lynch T-Bone (Both of CSF's potential partners die this way!) then scum kills me and Guilty and Clover lynch CSF for the win? What am I missing?

I mean I guess you want it this way so you can have both maxwell and T-Bone flip, but idk, I trust Clover/T-Bone to win it if it comes down to 3p and maxwell's the scum. I still think it's T-Bone

[GuiltyLion]

I die either way so I'm not sure what you're implying

unless it's a CSF/Blair team, in which case you win

[GuiltyLion]

but aren't you essentially advocating for making the toss-up decision

now

, with less info, than in 3p LYLO, with the most info possible?

[GuiltyLion]

I dunno, while I don't think it's Blair/CSF because this would be a really bad kill for that team, I also don't want to be ruling out teams on the basis of 'that team wouldn't make this NK' because that's exactly the kind of WIFOM which would be such a purpose of an oddball NK.

I don't see what's wrong with just playing it safe and ruling out any scum!GL/scum!Blair possibilities while keeping our conftown alive, then lynching into CSF and letting Maxwell/T-Bone/Clover evaluate the game in 3p based on all of eachother's contributions so far.

You might be right that your way is safer

given that you are town

, but since I can't know that for certain and I had plenty of reason for feeling you as scum on D1, I'm resistant to take an alternative route.

[GuiltyLion]

like, for example, you're kinda just defaulting to clearing me now given that I am the best lynch today, but what if I were scum with someone in maxwell/T-Bone? Why are you not concerned at all with that possibility - we would win given your plan

[GuiltyLion]

gonna be obnoxious and continue to quote myself

lynching me is the only way we can force the scum kill on N2 and have D3 flexibility. Lynching anywhere else means we forfeit control of either N2 or D3 or both, and that's clearly suboptimal

[GuiltyLion]

Declaring that he's gonna be the deciding vote on Day 4 when we haven't even finished Day 2 tells me he may actually know the board. Otherwise you would not be so quick to dismiss a Maxwell/Bone scum pairing. Which objectively that pairing makes a ton of sense regardless of how you feel about any other player.

Plus treating yourself as confirmed town when you are at best tied for the most townread player is not a protown look. This is really awful coming from Clover two days before that could even happen.

GL as my potentially soon to be confirmed town buddy, bounce your ideas with me. Pretend you have a nullread on everyone for the moment. What do you think?

I entirely see where you're coming from with this - assuming you are town, this makes a lot of sense, and a lot of your follow up posts felt town in how you are handling this to me as well.

However, I see Clover's PoV too, and I'm ultimately siding with Maxwell I think in that this ... kinda looks overall TvT to me, especially given Blair's increasing desperation to prolong her own flip and her failure to consider PoVs I think she would consider as town. Blair strikes me as a smart/capable person, the fact that she apparently can't see all of our points and is instead voteparking on conftown leads me to believe she

must

be scum, WIFOMy NK aside.

All that said, this is a very good question:

I think you're taking my comment the wrong way, but this has helped me regardless.

Pray tell, how has this helped you in reading T-Bone?

Clover, did you answer this?

[GuiltyLion]

We have over 24 hours left in the phase and suddenly just because Celeste self-votes now you're in a rush? What happened to the importance of us taking advantage of our unforced phases to consider our options and the immeasurable value of the IC's input?

Remember when T-Bone and Maxwell thought it was super scummy to disregard the value of the IC because we would want them alive so they could weigh in on our options? Pepperidge Farm remembers.

The desperation that suddenly reared its ugly head when Celeste cast her vote is painting a new picture. Maxwell/T-Bone is looking more believable than before - almost like scum pissed they thought they had a win lined up from Day 1 and they overplayed their hand.

CSF scum still makes the most sense due to the nightkill, which I don't really understand coming from just Max/T-Bone, but that nightkill is literally the only reason I'm doubting that solve based on the interactions of the last page and a half.

this post is the biggest bullshit post of the game so far lmao

nice try Blair

[GuiltyLion]

If I get hammered between now and whenever I post again (gotta do some Real Work today unfortunately), my departing thoughts are this:

1. as of late, I'm fairly confident scum is CSF/Blair and the GL lynch is autowin.
2. if Blair isn't scum, then CSF is essentially confscum and would absolutely be my preferred lynch in 5p.
3. assuming the game then goes to 3p, it's a hard solve, due to my first point. I don't know if I'm comfortable giving final words on who I'd want lynched there. of the three, maxwell is probably my strongest townread. I know Kanna left us with a very short ISO but I think the interactions between Clover/T-Bone and Kanna should be dissected and poured over to weigh on the decision, I do think the Clover/Kanna dynamic doesn't feel like SvS.

[GuiltyLion]

I think in trying to play careful/paranoid town and cover our bases and not be too arrogant in our solve, we've all been a bit blind to the simplest explanation in front of us: CSF/Blair is the team and didn't have

any

good NK options last night

[GuiltyLion]

also rereading Clover/me on D1 may be fruitful as well in a hypothetical 3p LYLO - it did feel to me for a bit like he was setting up to mislynch me back when beeboy was the likely D1 lynch and the 3p would have been Clover/Blair/GL

[GuiltyLion]

but then again, Clover has put in a respectable amount of effort this game that frankly he just wouldn't have to do as scum. he didn't even fight the switch from Beeboy->Dunn which would be game changing if he really was trying to endgame with a mislynch on me.

[GuiltyLion]

yeah, that was a great try by Blair towards the end! I'm sorry you felt ignored, tbh a lot of my doing that was because I thought you were scum! I would love to be town with you in a future game where we can work together proper

I think this is a really tough setup for scum, they're really constrained in terms of sequencing their mislynches and so a few townies recognizing each other and then playing tic-tac-toe from there can really destroy you in a way that's easier to counter in usual setups. Scum very well could have won this if we lynched beeboy on D1, big props to all the townies involved in pivoting to Dunn at the right moment.

[GuiltyLion]

thanks for modding Umlaut - I had a lot of fun, I like Blitzes, they keep me more engaged

[GuiltyLion]

I also was kinda not entirely sober and roleplaying/trying a different style in the very beginning of this game Friday night, I don't know if it worked so well as it netted me some hard-to-shake scumreads