Newbie 2012 - Game Over

[GuiltyLion]

first!

VOTE: DoctorPepper

[GuiltyLion]

[Ydrasse.vote]

just a heads up, that won't count as a valid vote

you want to use vote tags, in brackets

Code: Select all

[vote]Ydrasse[/vote]

like this^

[GuiltyLion]

Looks like we're playing together again pii. What's up bud.

Oh yeah

VOTE: Micc

As a golden gopher fan, I can't believe he's broadcasting that thing in his avatar.

VOTE: Italiano

Let's leave RVS. Anyone can tell me why this vote is scummy?

I mean there's the mafia 101 explanation of "voting the mod provides no information, avoids any potential early game conflict, etc" and yeah I get it

but let's play mafia 201 - did you look at Italiano's completed game? He strikes me as a smart/capable player (his avatar also contributes to this impression ) and while it's

possible

scum!Italiano is timid/scared in RVS I don't entirely buy it as likely

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: UNOwen

I don't like 24, the whole thing feels awkward and he conveniently doesn't put his actual reason for voting Italiano into words - sneaky, sneaky

[GuiltyLion]

I agree with your point on Owen ,but it is in the early stages.

Can you explain why you think 'early stages' makes it less meaningful of a point? Scum are scum whether it's the early game or the late game, I've caught scum off of one post before.

What would be the harm in your mind voting for Owen right now?

[GuiltyLion]

I thought it was fairly obvious why I voted Italiano. Suspicious post + page 1 = vote and see how people react. What do you suppose my reason was?

I supposed it might be something along those lines if you're town, what I didn't like is that you didn't bother to make that clear

[GuiltyLion]

@ Everyone:

1) What is your experience with playing mafia?
2) Do you prefer playing town or scum?
3) What do you think of the Policy lynch of Lynch All Lurkers?

1) I've played onsite here for 5+ years

2) town, easily. it drains me to play high-effort scum and I often coast and do the bare minimum when I'm scum.

3) I think 'lurking' is too broad of a term. I think people who are present in the thread and attempting at least a little bit too blend in are more likely scum, I thin people who flake out or go for days without posting often have RL keeping them away from the game and it's NAI in those instances. I'm fine with someone only being present once every 24-36 hours if they make serious contributions and game-advancing pushes/thoughts when they are present, quality over quantity you know? Though it also stands that the consistently most engaged/present players are usually town.

[GuiltyLion]

1) Random guess or analysis of what we have so far, take a crack at the scumteam. Who is the mafia team in this game?
2) If you were mafia in this game, who would you like to be your partner, or who would most likely be your partner.

on the other hand, I don't really like these questions, they don't seem very likely to actually lead to useful content. We should always be talking about 1) in the general sense constantly anyways, and 2) is just a WIFOM fest

[GuiltyLion]

I find the whole modvote situation to have been artificially blown up. This sets my eyes early on Doctorpepper.

VOTE: Doctorpepper

I also don't like this vote

Why do you choose to describe it as "artificial"? What is the scum motive to play the way Doctorpepper is playing, and why is that more likely than town!Doctorpepper trying to find scum?

VOTE: TheThirteenthJT

[GuiltyLion]

I think Ydrasse, UNOwen, DoctorPepper are all likely town

[GuiltyLion]

I called it artificial because that what it looks like. Basically I need a reason to start a push on someone to make myself useful to the town on page one, get early scumhunting credit and zoom out. I've seen this done before and always pings me early in games. Both Doctorpepper and Uno have done this with what I found to be a lol vote by Italiano.

Now don't get me wrong. Early game voting is always a crapshoot. So since Italiano was receiving early game pressure, I want to pressure the counterside and see reactions as well. Thus my vote.

You didn't really answer the heart of my question though, let me try again. There are two possible worlds based on DoctorPepper's alignment

1) DoctorPepper is town, and pushed Italiano's vote because they genuinely thought it was a bad entrance/RVS vote
2) DoctorPepper is scum, and used Italiano's vote as a reason to start a fake push and pretend to be scum hunting

Without having any information, the odds of world 1 are 75% (assuming a town POV), and the odds of world 2 are 25%.

You're saying it looks like world two, but I'm asking

why

. What specifically about the way DoctorPepper pushed it makes you think it is more likely fake than not? Because while it certainly

could

be fake, I don't see a good reason to think it's likely that it is.

[GuiltyLion]

So DoctorPepper and UNOwen voting for me on day one without explanation. Seems pretty convenient. You two just shot up my scum read list.

this isn't really an inspiring post

[GuiltyLion]

Even though I find it scummy as well, I doubt both mafia would use the same point to push you early game. One of them to me is being truthful.

I agree that it more than likely wouldn’t be both scum voting for me, so I’m leaning more towards UNOwen being scum than DoctorPepper. DoctorPepper being the SE though doesn’t rule out him out for me.

Both of these quotes kinda sum up why the whole idea is flawed to begin with

if you think Action A is scum-indicative but you have two people who committed Action A and you also think one of them is Town, then it follows that Action A by itself cannot be something that you consider scum-indicative, because town literally also did it.

[GuiltyLion]

guiltylion: why do you have the trs that you do? (63)

would it be okay if I just lazily said that I've played somewhere in the range of 60-70+ games at least on site and altogether their posts and behavior so far vibe town to me? Given that most players are town it only takes a few really genuine sounding thought processes and attempts to sort in order to move someone into my 'prob don't want to lynch today' pile

[GuiltyLion]

Im a bit torn regarding early outing of early town reads. Generally town read players just tend to get killed off and you get left with the scumbuckets. Though obviously taking a stance is important so others can get a read of yourself.

What are your thoughts re: the benefits of posting these early town reads vs the cons?

Honestly I've experimented with some different styles regarding sharing townreads and I don't think there's a one-size-fits-all best approach to this dilemma. I think sharing townreads is important because it is a way to tell others who you will NOT vote, it helps build thread consensus and shape the pool of players up for debate about who might be scum. It narrows the trajectories scum can take by reducing the amount of slots they can effectively push.

However, I do think it's valuable to not always explain how strong your townread is, or why you are townreading people in complete detail, because that info does help scum figure out their standing and who might be mislynchable later, and helps them make better NKs.

So it depends. I think I tend to gravitate towards oversharing as town because I think transparency and being correctly townread is extremely valuable and overall makes the game state harder for scum, even with the drawbacks. But there are times when it's correct to mask a little bit about why you townread certain players or how confident you are in it, that's partly why I kinda rebuffed Ydrasse's question.

[GuiltyLion]

You said you didn't like UNO not making his reasoning for his vote clear but yet you town read him. Please explain.

The way he explained it in 36 and 56 was a satisfying explanation, and I think his attempts to advance the game is pro-town, especially in contrast to some of the other players.

I also didn't like Italiano's re-entry to the thread and began to scumread him myself now, which makes the RVS vote look better after the fact too

[GuiltyLion]

Now I disagree that even when using you 75/25 ratio that 25 percent is always a reason to push someone when something sets you off.

This isn't quite what I was saying, my point was I believe you should have reasons why you think a scum-motive explanation is

more

likely than a town-motive explanation. I can often imagine many scum-motive explanations for most posts in a game, but I try to always be checking them again town-motive explanations and then filtering only to push where I don't really see the town-motive explanation, or see it as less likely.

That said, I appreciate your explanation here and I think the overall post feels genuine

UNVOTE:

[GuiltyLion]

EBWOP - against*, not again

[GuiltyLion]

Guilty, shouldn't the percentages in 96 be 50/50 since you are working with no information and both worlds could equally be true and equally be false?

nah mate, that's not how probability works haha. If I roll a die, either I could roll a 1 or I could not, that doesn't mean these things are 50/50. Your mistake is to say we are working with "no information", townies are already working with information in that 6 other players are town and 2 are scum. So for any given post right now, it's more likely to be town posting than scum posting.

And if you don't mind could you give a better explanation of 99.

better explanation how? do you want me to talk in greater detail about each player, or one in particular?

[GuiltyLion]

Furthermore, I dislike your concern about how you are being read by others (walter), it gives me the impression of a mindset of scum-survivalism.

This is a bad point.

Townies should be concerned with how people view them too, I don't think being worried about why you are being scumread is scum-indicative. Also, I may be misunderstanding or missing something, but in that quoted post I think he's asking Italiano about his read on Walter, not worried about how Walter is reading him

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: ItalianoVD

[GuiltyLion]

hmmm I'm feeling like this game is gonna be a hard one, I kinda got gut town vibes from Italiano's page 8 posting. I'm gonna respond to stuff directed at me, then prob reread in full and see if anything new stands out.

UNVOTE:

[GuiltyLion]

Furthermore, I dislike your concern about how you are being read by others (walter), it gives me the impression of a mindset of scum-survivalism.

This is a bad point.

Townies should be concerned with how people view them too, I don't think being worried about why you are being scumread is scum-indicative. Also, I may be misunderstanding or missing something, but in that quoted post I think he's asking Italiano about his read on Walter, not worried about how Walter is reading him

??

See TTJT's response. He confirms he does ask Italiano for both their read on walter AND on TTJT (himself)

I think we're miscommunicating or not understanding each other here.

It looked to me like in 82, TTJT was asking Italiano for his reads on both TTJT and Walter. Then it looked to me like in your 181, you were saying that TTJT was worried about how Walter was reading him, the "concern about how you are being read by others (Walter)" part. So I thought you were saying TTJT was worried about how Walter was reading him, which I didn't think had ever happened.

Your latest reply here suggests you think the same thing, so I'm not sure I understand the original post 150, why did you mention Walter in parenthesis like that?

[GuiltyLion]

EBWOP - sorry not 181, 150

[GuiltyLion]

nah mate, that's not how probability works haha. If I roll a die, either I could roll a 1 or I could not, that doesn't mean these things are 50/50. Your mistake is to say we are working with "no information", townies are already working with information in that 6 other players are town and 2 are scum.

So for any given post right now, it's more likely to be town posting than scum posting.

Yeah I get this, but I guess my question is what math are you using? I'm trying to understand your 75/25 example.

better explanation how? do you want me to talk in greater detail about each player, or one in particular?

Yeah, it doesn't have to be a book, just a quick synopsis on why you think those three are town please.

Basically, from a town point of view, there are 8 other players, 6 are town and 2 are scum. So if you pick a slot at random, there's 75% odds that it's town. That's where the numbers come from, hopefully that made it more clear? (for scum point of view this doesn't hold up, because 7 of the slots are town and 1 is their buddy, but also they already know who is who).

What I was also trying to say was, based on these prior odds, a lot of things people think or argue are scum tells really aren't scumtells at all, they're just noise. The vast majority of posts in most games are coming from town. The best scumtells IMO are behaviors/patterns that

don't

come from town, as opposed to things that come from town sometimes and come from scum sometimes, and I try to apply this reasoning to when I'm looking at whether I think a certain post is more likely coming from scum or town.

[GuiltyLion]

ah and I forgot to reply to the other part

keeping in mind that these were early game townreads and there's more to work off of now:

Ydrasse - I'm in the process of rethinking how strongly I originally townread this slot, but I thought the way she followed up on my pressure on UNOwen in 35 and 38 felt agendaless -> instead of trying to escalate conflict or push players, it felt like she was approaching things with a perspective to understand.

DoctorPepper - took strong initiative in pressure people early and I thought the pressure hit town notes of "something potentially suspicious" without going too far into exaggeration/embellishment. Also thought the emotion about being discredited in 50 was genuine

UNOwen - I already answered this one, but he didn't feel defensive in his replies to me on page 2 and I thought the reasoning for voting Italiano was earnest, even if it wasn't presented at first.

anyway that was my reasoning at the time, but I'm in the process of re-evaluating, so stay tuned

[GuiltyLion]

@GuiltyLion

: could you expand on your scum read of Italiano?

I mostly really didn't like how he formed his scumreads around those voting him in 72, and I thought his defense of "what would be the benefit of putting a target on my back" was scummy because it's clear he didn't think it would put a target on his back regardless of his alignment, otherwise he wouldn't do it, as you also pointed out in 201.

I also got the vibe that he was buddying me in 81

[GuiltyLion]

so I've just quickly skimmed/reread through the game

my opening tack here was trying to sort a few newbies, mainly TTJT and Italiano, cause I didn't hit an early townread from either and I tend to find newbie scum are easy to catch with a little pushing and prodding. However, as they posted more their thought processes became more clear to me and I don't especially think either is scum, which left me feeling a little aimless and wanting to reset a bit and reread.

Overall, I still townread Ydrasse, UNOwen, DoctorPepper as well - it's definitely possible that one is competent scum fooling me, but even when I went back to see if I could find avenues to where they're potentially playing to a scum agenda, nothing stood out to me.

I townread Walter as well. I think he's engaging in the game in a loose and carefree way which is difficult for scum, especially newbie scum, to emulate effectively. And I think the suspicion on 72 is genuine because there was not a ton of explicit support there and 72 strikes me as a slot that would be intimidating to push for a mislynch if you know he's town and you're not experienced/adept as scum.

which leaves piisirrational and 72offsuit. I scumread both of these slots and would currently be fine with a lynch on either.

Let's start with pi - I think Italiano makes a good point about pi's lack of activity, and I think the posts pi

did

leave us with are very inoffensive and meant to blend in. His take on Italiano in 65 is pure hedge, he doesn't scumread or townread Italiano on it (giving flexibility to take a read in either direction as the situation develops), he sheeps the reasoning Ydrasse already gave, and it's ultimately a post that neither develops any reads on any of the players involved, and also will not cause conflict with anybody in the situation.

It's made worse by the fact that he shades DoctorPepper in 138 only

after

being prompted -> if these thoughts were there at the time of 65, he chose not to post them, so to me it seems likely that pi only came up with this reasoning because they had to after the fact.

139 has much of the same problems as 65. Simply telling people stuff is NAI and not making any effort to instead highlight things that

are

AI, or generate content. It's classic newbie scum posting.

VOTE: piisirrational slot

As for 72, I imagine this is a harder sell as he strikes me as a competent player and I can definitely empathize with why some of you townread him. With him, it's more of a process of elimination from my townreads and an

absence

of towniness than any clear scum-motive to his posting. 72 is making an effort to ask questions and give thoughts and participate in conversation, but none of them ever gave me good feels in the way that most of the other players posts have. I recognize that's a vague and holistic assessment, I'm not sure how to explain it convincingly, but I want it noted down for future reference. I can also call out a couple of minor things which aren't especially scummy on their own, but together serve as circumstantial evidence that makes me feel validated in this PoE read:

- I only paid attention to this on reread, but he calls out Walter for the "greet the thread tell" (46) while seemingly missing that Ydrasse also greeted the thread (7). I think if he was genuinely scouting for this tell in RVS, he would have noticed that both players did it. Especially because when he voted Walter in post 12 he didn't mention the tell, he only brought it up later. That feels more likely to be scum adding justifications to their vote after the fact than town who noticed it to begin with. Props to Owen who called him out on this in 57, and I don't think 72 ever gave an explanation for it - which he did promise in 104. Let's hear that explanation now?

- I brought this up already, but I really didn't like the implication in 150 that TTJT was scummy for worrying about how he's perceived. Sure, it's survivalistic in nature, but both town or scum players generally want to survive and understand how they're being read by other players in the game. The idea of "scum"-survivalism specifically is doing a lot of legwork to mask the fact that 72 isn't actually explaining why TTJT asking for reads on himself is more likely to be scum behavior than town behavior.

- Given that I find piisirational decent odds of scum, I'm looking for people who haven't paid any attention to pi or put any pressure there. 72 has not once mentioned his play in this game at all. This alone is not scum-indicative - I myself also haven't mentioned pi up to this point! (but I'm doing it now!) - but if we see a red flip on that slot I'd be very wary of anyone who didn't engage with or mention him in any substantive way, and 72 fits that profile.

[GuiltyLion]

We don't need to like run them up to immediate threat of hammer or anything but I like putting the replacement under fire! makes it scary as scum and I think people understand that's the risk of replacing in.

[GuiltyLion]

GL and Walter voting on an inactive slot does not bode well with me considering that there are so many active slots in the game

I don't vote people based on whether they're active or inactive, I vote them based on how likely I think they are to be scum. Why is Walter a good vote?

[GuiltyLion]

They won't be able to speak for pi so they won't be able to respond to the argument. It's like building a case against a dead man, it's a bit opportunistic. I don't disagree that pi's posts were UTR but GuiltyLion was not so extensive in justifying his previous votes so it struck out.

I don't really expect a pi replacement to respond to my points, my case isn't for pi's eyes, it's for everyone else's.

I did put a lot more effort/energy into that post but that's because prior to that I didn't feel I had a real foothold in the game or any conviction in my reads yet, and now I feel I've got one and I intend to match my effort accordingly

[GuiltyLion]

72offsuit, there's a bunch of stuff I want to work with in your posts but this is a quick pop in during lunch break so I don't have time to do it justice yet, I'll be back with more #content over the next few hours.

[GuiltyLion]

Your townread of Uno is extremely lame and feels disingenuous. Im paraphrasing here, but It seems to me to boil down to:

"His response did not particularly feel scummy" - this is a garbage reason to town read someone. This is a NAI thing, AT BEST.

"Reasoning for voting IVD was earnest", is also pretty lame.

I'll start with this though

that post was explaining my Uno townread

at the time that I gave it

. There's been a bunch more in Unowen's posts since that I've also found town-indicative, but I admittedly didn't go through a ton of effort to explain it at the time or afterwards, because I knew I wanted to do another review of the entire game so far and because I still don't think it actually helps town all that much to wax poetic at length about why you think people are town. I generally think it's far more useful to dig into reasons for scumreads than townreads, because scumreads are the ones that scum can't fake. It's way easier to fake a townread on a town slot, and frankly if I were scum and I was townreading a town!UNOwen I can promise you I'd be able to write a pretty convincing sounding case if I needed to.

Why do you say it's "disingenuous"? and more importantly, do you scumread UNOwen? Or are you just trying to push back on my intentions?

as long as you don't think Owen and I are literally scum together, then either:
-I'm scum and UNOwen is town and we can at least both agree UNOwen is town and off the table for a lynch today (which I think is useful)
-I'm town and UNOwen is town, in which case arguing about my reasons for townreading UNOwen just muddies the waters around both of our slots for no gain to town
-I'm town and UNOwen is scum, in which case I would say the more important thing for you to be doing here is

casing

UNOwen and making an effort to convince me I'm wrong, rather than saying my townread is "lame".

So if you want to suss me out as for why I have that read, feel free, but if you are townreading UNOwen yourself then I'd like to keep that mutual townread established and centered as I think that's important, and if you don't actually think UNOwen is town then I would expect more from you in terms of casing and pushing him, instead of picking a fight with me.

[GuiltyLion]

GL and Walter voting on an inactive slot does not bode well with me considering that there are so many active slots in the game

I don't vote people based on whether they're active or inactive, I vote them based on how likely I think they are to be scum. Why is Walter a good vote?

also DoctorPepper in addendum to this, I'd like an update on your read on 72offsuit. You were scumreading him earlier, I gave some reasons as to why I think he might be scum, I find it strange that now you pivot to Walter and toss some suspicion at me instead of potentially working with me on 72offsuit.

[GuiltyLion]

What's the point in these bite-size posts and the overly-explaininy, "this is just a quick pop in"? Just address my post in full.

how is it "over-explainy", what? all I was saying is that I've read your 234 and I know I want to respond to it, but I don't have time yet.

[GuiltyLion]

and 256 has a pretty clear and intentional point to it

[GuiltyLion]

I haven't read everything yet and I'm really tired and don't have time to post today, so this is just a prodge :/ I have skimmed along though and I see more scum reads on TTJT, I'll try to revisit that tomorrow. still think the pi slot is scum, less sold on 72

[GuiltyLion]

finally tackling this post!

a) The quick change of heart off the TTJT wagon.
In moving off the TTJT wagon, 172 , GL simply says "That said, I appreciate your explanation here and I think the overall post feels genuine"
TTJT,'s response in 123 does not particuarly strike me as being convincingly of a town mindset.
TTJT says of Doctorpepper, that he is "an experienced player pushing a newbie [IVD] who has not been on RVS on this site before".
-- which is untrue as IVD has played a game previously and has been through RVS.

I disagree that a single early-game vote, as DP voted IVD, compares to TTJT being actually lynched for his newbie "no lynch" play.

What I;m trying to say is, I'm not really liking GL's rationale and the shift away here from pressuring TTJT.

When I read this and went back and revisited 123 to try to convince myself it couldn't come from scum, I think you are right here. I feel I may have gotten suckered by the fact that he doubled down on insisting that it was a good reason to push with the last sentence, I thought that was a little headstrong to be scum and showed earnest belief in his posts. But it's not something that scum can't post, so I think you're right to push back on the townread here.

4. Voting a replacing out/AFK player feels like a waste of a vote, and basically suiting scum agenda its not like pi can reply.
Even in getting a reply from the replacement here, its very easy for !scumSera to read the thread and take the path thats best suits scumagenda, as they are not tied to their predecessors "reads"

Voting/FoSing a lurker in !townPi/now-Sera (easy mislynch target), as well as a "competent" player in myself (removal of a potential threat), would certainly suit !scumagenda.
Obviously that depends on pi/Sera's alignment. [not that I;m a particularly good player or anything, but I do ahave a couple of games under my belt]

I get the skepticism here assuming you are town, but the pi slot legitimately is my highest confidence scumread based on the play of most other players here, and I think there's value in pushing there both because it pressures the replacement and because it pressures other slots to engage with my push there. Just because the slot isn't posting doesn't mean I'm going to leave it alone.

b) I'm OK to explain this now. My singling out of a single player despite several players greeting the whole thread, was intentional.
I've tried out the newbie greeting = scum theory and it was a crock of crap, where we vote for our tracker, lol.
See: Newbie 1994
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=82538
I picked walter as my RVS, as it was his first game, and thought I'd be more likely to get an alignment-indicative reaction
from him than a more expreienced player.
I also chose to push him on the "greeting-scum-tell" because it was his first game, whereas Ydrasse already had played a game.
I wanted to see others reactions to my overzealous and lame push on walter. No bites on the fishing rod.

This explanation made a lot of sense and makes me feel significantly better about your slot.

In 175 , GL states: "Townies should be concerned with how people view them too, I don't think being worried about why you are being scumread is scum-indicative.

Well, TTJT in 82 , does NOT ask for an EXPLANATION WHY for a SCUMREAD, as GL stated, but simply asks "Where do I fall in your reads?"

So my point still stands, TTJT's 82 IS scummy. Saying my implication that TTJT is scummy, does not feel like a genuine point here from GL.

I also agree with you here. I didn't pay enough attention to the fact that TTJT wasn't asking about being scumread specifically, this is absolutely a fair distinction to make and I see what you're saying now. I think somehow in my head I conflated Italiano's scumreading slots pushing him with the discussion around TTJT, and missed the point of what was being discussed here, but honestly I can't really explain it - either I was too rushed or distracted when I was reading and posting earlier.

[GuiltyLion]

I do agree that 321 and 325 are pretty scummy posts and a lot that I would have said about them has been said already

VOTE: TheThirteenthJT

the biggest problem I have with 325 is that it reads more like a soft defense of his own slot than it does a case on Owen. Lots of "why me if you also did this" type reasoning, UNOwen pointed out the best example of it with the 'asking for reads' point but the whole discussion of 'gut scum partner' reading has the same issue with it.

I also find the "suspicion of SEs" take feels a little fake or performative, I briefly skimmed TTJT's ISO in the completed game he has as town and while he does express a similar mentality of not wanting to townread people too easily, he's also much more focused in who he goes after and he does seem to understand that a lot of the slots he's working with are town. Here it feels like he's trying to vaguely shade all of us so that he can pretend to be uninformed and adapt to pushing/discrediting who he might need to at a future moment, and I don't think it's genuine.

[GuiltyLion]

At this point TTJT seems a little scummy but that’s just cause I find people generally who fish for information like they did as odd but as I said earlier that’s just me apart from that I’m unsure.

this feels like what newbie scum would say about a town!TTJT

[GuiltyLion]

Anyone care to explain TTJT as scum? I'm kinda town reading their posts because the UNOwen analysis makes sense to me

can you answer my 256

[GuiltyLion]

I'm similarly no longer townreading DoctorPepper

I'll vote for any of {TTJT, MiniMegabyte, DoctorPepper} today, and the way the latter two are dancing around suspicion/voting for TTJT makes me wonder if he's a mislynch that scum missed the boat on and are now trying to avoid an overly scummy hop on. TTJT - what are your thoughts on this?

[GuiltyLion]

I actually have no defense for my play today aside from just being at a bad time with real life.

Give me the weekend I'll have some time to read through

I guess we'll just have to take your word for it. Don't think it'll stop us voting for you though. I do find it interesting that TTJT is saying the same thing as you and you both took V/LA. I'm not questioning your rl issues. Sorry man I really hope you are able to work out your issues. But it's just interesting and even pii asked to be replaced. Sera never posted once. What is this game doing to people?

As irresponsible as this sounds, I'm not really super concerned with my lynch if town wants to make that mistake

can you answer my 256

[GuiltyLion]

After going over the game again and skim reading everything, i still stick with what I have said in regards to my thoughts. I can see however how you may think i am trying to blend in with others to keep hidden and honestly if I was scum it wouldn't be a bad play until caught out. I am still sticking with TTJT being scummy as fishing for information with the questions being asked just doesn't seem right to me.

VOTE: TheThirteenthJT

alright, do you have any other scumreads? you've skimmed the game at least so i'm wondering if anyone else stuck out to you as scummy.

I see everyone else as pretty equal rn I don’t really see anyone else as scummy rn

I'm kinda gut reading this as newbie town. I think if MiniMegabyte were scum, she'd be more likely to try to appease Ydrasse here. This is a fairly brave answer for scum

[GuiltyLion]

I actually also thought those looked like softs from DoctorPepper. At the very least, it's bravado meant to scare people away from voting him. I find them to be scummy posts

[GuiltyLion]

He came back into the game with very weak posts, that is undeniable, but I dont necessary see it as scummy. I see it almost as a bit of disinterest.

why do you assume the disinterest isn't indicative? I think most players, as town, have interest in lynching correctly and influencing the thread in the direction they want. I think scum are more likely not to want to rock the boat or do too much, and make safe/bland posts on entry. 72offsuit also made a meta argument that DoctorPepper is makes weaker posts as scum.

[GuiltyLion]

I actually also thought those looked like softs from DoctorPepper. At the very least, it's bravado meant to scare people away from voting him. I find them to be scummy posts

more on this, 55 looked to me much more like an attempt at a soft. That's part of why I initially townread him. I became suspicious of his intentions when he later walked that back in 245.

The second rendition in 395, I can see it both ways - either as a soft or something he can walk back and say "I wasn't softing, just saying lynching me is bad" like he already did once. I completely agree with Italiano that this gives him room to claim a PR if he's put under fire, however I think it's more likely he's scum doing that given the rest of his play.

If he's a PR I'm wrong, but I think they're definitely posts solely with the agenda of making us uncomfortable about voting him and altogether less likely to be town posts.

[GuiltyLion]

I'd probably bet the game on Italiano, 72offsuit, and UNOwen being town

Ydrasse and Walter are town most of the time, but I'd be thinking if I'm getting snowed by scum, they're more likely than the first three.

MiniMegabyte is a tossup, but I stand by their doubling down on not having any scumreads outside of TTJT as being loosely town-indicative.

Which leaves TTJT/DoctorPepper which I think is the team. We have TTJT at 3 votes and DocPepper at 2, I don't see a point of switching right at this moment, but happy to go with DocPep if UNOWen/Walter prefer to go there.

[GuiltyLion]

I'm wondering why !scum TTJT wouldnt vote for mini

Why would they both vote for Walter, when its unlikely walter will be lynched?

eh actually that's a fair point

I think TTJT's vote for Walter doesn't make a lot of sense in general to me. Like you said, it's unlikely Walter will be lynched. I didn't vibe with the case, I think TTJT just summarized a lot of Walter's play but didn't actually do the legwork of why he thinks Walter is scum outside of "afraid to lead wagons". And I got the sense TTJT is avoiding the DoctorPepper wagon. That's why I thought the associative made sense, but it is a good question why scum!TTJT doesn't just vote Mini there.

[GuiltyLion]

Anyone care to explain TTJT as scum? I'm kinda town reading their posts because the UNOwen analysis makes sense to me

yeh I guess this is also unlikely from scum!DocPep with scum!TTJT

VOTE: Doctor Pepper

[GuiltyLion]

He came back into the game with very weak posts, that is undeniable, but I dont necessary see it as scummy. I see it almost as a bit of disinterest.

why do you assume the disinterest isn't indicative? I think most players, as town, have interest in lynching correctly and influencing the thread in the direction they want. I think scum are more likely not to want to rock the boat or do too much, and make safe/bland posts on entry. 72offsuit also made a meta argument that DoctorPepper is makes weaker posts as scum.

I feel like this is a huge misrep because I actually care more about my scum games than town games.

I don't really know you well enough to know which games you care more about, it'd be a misrep if I

knew

you care more about scum games.

Here's my question back at you: Why do you expect townies to not want to lynch you when it's evident you haven't cared about the game up to this point? You wait until you're L-1 and close to lynch to start playing, surely you can see how that's suspicious?

[GuiltyLion]

I think they haven't been given a lot of suspicion because they seem to give that aura of leading town but the intentions are honestly in bad faith. So far those are the only comfortable lynches for me

In my absolutely do not lynch pile, I'll have Ydrasse and IVD.

I find it hard to believe that you genuinely don't understand why a townie might be suspicious of your lack of involvement in the game today. In the same spirit of my last post, put yourself in my shoes - I completely agree with you on Ydrasse and IVD, and I also townread UNOwen, Walter, and 72, given their various demonstrations of attempting to generate info and help solve. 72 makes a case on you and pushes there. Why should I

not

hop on your wagon? What should I be seeing in 72's case that makes me realize he is scum pushing you and not town (correctly) identifying you as scum?

[GuiltyLion]

Scum you agenda is that the TTJT lynch was losing steam and you went for me

The reason TTJT wagon lost steam was largely

because

of 72. I think if 72 stayed the course on pushing TTJT that lynch easily would have happened, even if you hadn't posted at all for the rest of the day.

[GuiltyLion]

Which leaves TTJT/DoctorPepper which I think is the team. We have TTJT at 3 votes and DocPepper at 2, I don't see a point of switching right at this moment, but happy to go with DocPep if UNOWen/Walter prefer to go there.

Why are you deferring your vote choice to me/Walter?

This was the VC at the time that I said that - modified to include Ydrasse's vote in 423:

Votecount 1.09

TheThirteenthJT (3) -

UNOwen, GuiltyLion, MiniMegabyte

UNOwen (2) -

TheThirteenthJT, ItalianoVD

MiniMegabyte (1) -

WaltertheDunce10

WaltertheDunce10 (1) -

DoctorPepper

DoctorPepper (2) -

72offsuit, Ydrasse

Not Voting (0) -

I don't believe in UNOwen or Walter lynches. You and Walter were the main active townreads who may have switched to DoctorPepper instead of Thirteenth. I'm still fine with Mini too but that wagon didn't have any momentum behind it. I guess I could have mentioned Italiano too, but IIRC he indicated at some point he preferred the TTJT lynch.

[GuiltyLion]

In contrast GuiltyLion's vote struck me as off: in 424 he calls the team as JT/DrP, then decides it's unlikely based on their previous posts and switches wagons. This is
something I would have expected him to have already thought about before post 424.

meh, I honestly hadn't thought about it. My reads really have not changed at all as of this point:

I'm similarly no longer townreading DoctorPepper

I'll vote for any of {TTJT, MiniMegabyte, DoctorPepper} today, and the way the latter two are dancing around suspicion/voting for TTJT makes me wonder if he's a mislynch that scum missed the boat on and are now trying to avoid an overly scummy hop on. TTJT - what are your thoughts on this?

at this point we're close to deadline and need to consolidate on a lynch, I frankly do not care which of those three it is.

[GuiltyLion]

Voted for DoctorPepper and then went on to convince the town to vote for him instead of letting it build organically. Seemed to be trying too hard to make it happen.

I can see where you're coming from, but remember that we have fewer than 2 days until deadline. There's not enough time for us to sit back and build wagons "organically", I completely understand why a townie who thinks he's caught scum would want to push it pretty hard.

[GuiltyLion]

Regarding your reads list, for me it is the other way around and it is the way JT has been dancing around DoctorPepper that makes me wonder.

I am seeing that too, I agree the asking "how confident are you" question was pretty bad. I'm having a hard time figuring out exactly what I think the associative between TTJT and DocPep is, whether it's T-S in either direction or S-S. I can find evidence a few different ways but nothing that feels conclusive to me, and assuming there's scum involved then there's likely some intentional manipulation being attempted as well. That's why I'm basically just ready for a flip.

[GuiltyLion]

It makes no sense for them to drive a lunch at this point if they know their target will flip town due to the backlash that would fall.

How do you possibly say this and then decide to vote 72 when he was the one most vocal about driving a lynch today

that's too much cognitive dissonance for me to ignore at this point
VOTE: TheThirteenthJT

DoctorPepper - if you are town, please revisit the point about 72

steering the lynch away from TTJT and onto you

and why that's scum-motivated. I think if you're town, you're letting your frustration at being pushed for activity blind you to the fact that there's really no incentive to do that if he's scum, unless he's exactly partnered with TTJT.

[GuiltyLion]

I don't understand you guys on the point of me not wanting to take a side being scum motivated. I believe 72 has been a driving force day one and do feel him moving on from to go after DrPepper was town motivating I'm trying to see a reason against this. I've also hated the points on Drpeppers inactivity when he's clearly stated multiple time tHroughout the game the work has been killing him. I ask him to clarify whether he was disinterested or just lacking on time and he stated he posting more because of time. I believe him here.

If you want me to take a stance VOTE: 72offsuit because after weighing both side I will edge with him as scum over DrPepper. Mostly due to his push on dp being Ill fated and refusing the evidence that Drpeppers activity ahs directly correlated with his vla.

Once last attempt here to drive the lynch away from both of them. What's our game plan if either DrPepper or 72 is lynched?

I want you to tell me how this could possibly not ruin our game if they are both town? We would want to go over tHe other and potEntially mislynch tWice in a row. (Like I said I think it's ways to risky for scum to drive a lunch so late in the day). If one is scum great, more than likely I'm in the chopping block next based on today's wagons. Now if they are botH scum well played because I doubt we would ever vote both off. Too big of a Gambit in my opinion.

that was actually a hammer

and I'm surprised you didn't see that given the VC at the top of this page?

[GuiltyLion]

yeah that's really skeevy

even if JT flips scum

[GuiltyLion]

Suddenly TTJT's top scumreads are the top 2 wagons.

this is also bad because he took great care to say he wasn't really scumreading either slot, which I actually thought was scummy because if you & DocPep is TvT then he knows either lynch would flip green

he def didn't say you were his top scumreads, he was asking to see if we could lynch elsewhere

[GuiltyLion]

Lol. Nice so im scum either way. Fits nicely with your tunnel

yes because your hammer was insanely bad

I'm not even sure why it had to happen (assuming you're scum), TTJT was prob getting lynched over you most times there

either you're hoping to hit PR or you're distancing, exactly as DocPep said

[GuiltyLion]

if he's a PR I'm gonna be pissed

[GuiltyLion]

honestly if I were scum I would not have encouraged that kind of quick hammer, I think that's pretty bad play on D1 lmao

[GuiltyLion]

no, we're lynching 72 tomorrow, he's the one who hammered

[GuiltyLion]

also i feel that if 72 is scum too gl just became a lot more of a likely partner and they could have coordinated that vote on a townie!jt.

if jt is scum i don't know what motivation a scum 72 has to hammer his partner though or even switch wagons like that when he's under a lot of scrutiny because dp is going to still go after him the next day.

If JT isn't trolling then the partner is probably GuiltyLion.

IMO both these twilight shades were ugly

I would like both of you to explain why exactly you think scum!GL and scum!72 have any kind of need to coordinate a quickhammer there. I know it may not mean much coming from me, but I believe scum quickhammers on D1 are tremendously bad play unless you're absolutely sure you've got the PR (even then, it's a gamble that can easily sink you), and I really don't see how you think TTJT was such an urgent need to remove that our hypothetical team would need to trash my good standing as well as 72's in order to secure THAT specific D1 mislynch.

i feel that dp had a lot more to lose from thunderdoming it out with 72 in this situation and i think that 72's response of "oh we can work this out you might not be scum" feels scummier than dp's conviction that 72 is scum. i think that dp became townier the longer it went on. 568 in particular is a good representation of this thought process.

i don't know if a scum!72 would hammer like that and try to pretend it was fake/accidental though, because that seems dumb as hell to do.

I’m wondering when you felt this because you voted for DoctorPepper. Whether it was before or after you voted for him doesn’t change anything.

This is also a really good question that I want Ydrasse to answer.

VOTE: 72offsuit

[GuiltyLion]

IMO either Mini is 72's partner and he felt the need to make a desperation Hail Mary turbohammer D1 because he knew the team was absolutely screwed if he got lynched D1

or 72's partner is in UNOwen/Ydrasse and they felt sufficiently set up for endgame already even with throwing him to the gallows today

It's possible we're in the first world (which I do kinda want out of vanity for my post 218 being spot on), but I'm going to need a lot of help today from Ydrasse/UNOwen each to help me see it without paranoia given how they played that twilight.

[GuiltyLion]

I think it rules out the mason setups and either a doctor saved DoctorPepper (IMO he's the easy choice for most likely NK there) or a JKer prevented the kill. Not sure if it's wise to speculate beyond that at this point, the main thing I'm taking from it is DocPep should be basically treated as conftown for today

[GuiltyLion]

Why was DoctorPepper the easy choice for NK? Compared to yourself or myself or anyone else? And what gives us the impression that he be treated as confirmed town? Nothing shows that this is true. Unless I am missing it.

I'm working off the assumption(s) that 72 effectively scumclaimed with the pre-emptive hammer and that we're most likely going to lynch him today as a result.

it's certainly possible that I am wrong and someone else was targeted, but I feel the closest person to "clear town" on a 72 redflip is DocPep, so I think he's the most likely person to draw the NK last night.

I think it's healthy to check those assumptions, to a degree you are right to question it, but for right now I'm choosing to believe 72 is scum, DocPep is town, and thus building the framework for how I'm viewing the rest of the game from there today. If I'm wrong we'll likely know after another flip.

I need to think about the Ydrasse/UNOwen responses before getting to those

[GuiltyLion]

I guess I'd be okay with a 72 lynch today, however I can't shake it that GuiltyLion was the one that broke the tie first and also pulled his vote away from DoctorPepper.

also on this, my move to TTJT was motivated primarily because I really didn't like how he was dancing around both DocPep and 72 slots, it felt like he was noncommittal about making reads or votes on either of the slots in question. Also because we really needed to consolidate on a lynch at that point and at that point I was fine with any of the three, if anything I was starting to have some doubts about DocPep

[GuiltyLion]

UNVOTE:

I don't want him to self-hammer

[GuiltyLion]

If 72 is scum, he has played this game very poorly imo

This is why we need to spend more time on UNOwen, Ydrasse, Mini, and myself. 72 strikes me as a pretty capable player, I don't think he instahammers unless there's a benefit to him. Like I said, I think the worst case scenario is his partner is Ydrasse or UNOwen and set to have a really good chance to endgame, in which case we need to do as much as we can to give ourselves a chance at solving them. I myself don't want to be an easy mislynch for scum here

[GuiltyLion]

I don't have a ton of time rn and I'm still thinking, but I do want to say in case 72 selfhammers I think UNOwen is more likely scum than Ydrasse, based on their initial posts today and some reading I did overnight. Will explain in more detail later assuming there's no self-vote

[GuiltyLion]

No death N1 has 5 possibilities:
1. Mafia was not able to submit a factional kill (indicating someone who may have forgotten about the game or site-flaked)
2. Doctor blocks the night kill
3. Jailkeeper blocks the night kill by correctly targetting the Night Kill
4. Jailkeeper blocks the night kill by correctly targetting the Mafia assigned to do the NK.
5. Mafia submits no kill on purpose

I don't want to go in assuming it's 2-4 when 1 could be likely. I also think that while 5 is unlikely for a newbie, I would not put it past any of you to be that bold at Day 2

so first things first, I don't think 1 is likely - I can't think of a single time I have seen a scum team fail to submit a kill because both players were inactive, and every player in this game has been online and posted since. I think we should assume 2-4 for all intents and purposes.

[GuiltyLion]

Guilty Lion, in post 556 you mentioned: "I'm having a hard time figuring out exactly what I think the associative between TTJT and DocPep is, whether it's T-S in either direction or S-S. I can find evidence a few different ways but nothing that feels conclusive to me, and assuming there's scum involved then there's likely some intentional manipulation being attempted as well."

Two questions:

1) Why was there no mention of T-T?
2) How do you feel now? Now that JT flipped townie? Is DoctorPepper the Scum?

1) Frankly I just thought it was likely we had at least one mafia in the two given how the day was playing out. It could have been T-T, but that wasn't what I was considering at the time

2) Given 72's hammer and the way DoctorPepper had continued the engagement prior to and past that point, my read on 72 soured dramatically, and I don't think DoctorPepper is likely to be mafia anymore.

[GuiltyLion]

With GuiltyLion's "bad play" point: If 72 had a motive for quickhammering JT, then clearly so did his scumpartner.

If the question is "why would scum be so brazen?" then the answer is that they think people will ask that question and let them get away with it. Especially in this case where GuiltyLion came right out the gates pushing that defence. It's just a logic trap and not really worth trying to outguess.

This is a fair response. I guess my pride in myself as a scum player is more on the line when I'm making that defense than my actual alignment in this game

[GuiltyLion]

I've honestly been trawling through UNOwen/Ydrasse's D2 responses and their ISO and it's hard for me to find things that stand out as disingenuous, if either of them are scum they're playing really solidly

Basically 72 scum requires his partner to be either you or Ydrasse.

72's push against DrP was uneccessary from a scum perspective, unless he bought in to the "softing" talk in which case he was aggressively pr hunting. That's not a way to play when your partner is everyone's compromise lynch.

I guess as a starting point, UNOwen I want to get more of your thoughts on this. Are you really comfortable totally ruling out Mini as a partner based on this logic? I get where you're coming from and I've been thinking much the same way, but I think I still have hesitation in that if his partner

is

the compromise lynch and now he's perceiving that he's losing a 1v1 with DP - what if he felt the loss was inevitable if he was hammered yesterday and hence he took the first opportunity to guarantee survival for at least one more day?

I know I'm assuming the conclusion there instead of showing why the evidence supports the conclusion, but I don't know if I want to completely rule out the plausibility of 72/Mini pairing solely on the idea that 72 would have slow played it a little more in that case. You seem to be saying you are willing to do that, and that you'd chain eliminate Ydrasse and myself back to back, and I want to know if you don't have any doubts/uncertainty about that

[GuiltyLion]

I've also been revisiting these posts from 72 immediately after my 218, particularly these sections

4. Voting a replacing out/AFK player feels like a waste of a vote, and basically suiting scum agenda its not like pi can reply.
Even in getting a reply from the replacement here, its very easy for !scumSera to read the thread and take the path thats best suits scumagenda, as they are not tied to their predecessors "reads"

Voting/FoSing a lurker in !townPi/now-Sera (easy mislynch target), as well as a "competent" player in myself (removal of a potential threat), would certainly suit !scumagenda.
Obviously that depends on pi/Sera's alignment. [not that I;m a particularly good player or anything, but I do ahave a couple of games under my belt]

This first part seems to be meant to shade my pressure on the pi slot and also say that it's bad because !scumSera could handle my pressure? I hadn't caught this before but it's a bit weird that 72 thinks my vote is bad because scum will be able to handle it - it still means I'm voting scum.

There's also a hedge on Sera throughout, and a significant portion of the rest of 234 (too much to quote but I suggest going back to the post) is meant to discredit my townreads on TTJT and UNOwen, I suspect potentially as a means of distraction on the pii/Sera/Mini vote if you're town UNOwen.

Overall gamestate-wise, Pii lurking and being replaced and DP being on VLA has resulted in the same (relatively) few people posting.

Uno is still on IVD (the leading wagon), who Uno originally voted for in RVS, which is telling, I think, given Uno is also a leading wagon.

My preferred lynchpool is {TTJT , Uno}

As it stands, I wouldn't lose sleep over lynching pi/Sera if it comes to it.

I'm also kinda suspicious again here by him ultimately evolving from a {TTJT/Uno} pool to a DoctorPepper push - while also being open to voting pi/Sera without explicitly putting them in an elimination pool. Again, would like to see if you agree on this UNOwen - if you're town and I'm scum, why does he categorize pi/Sera separately rather than just having a three person elimination pool?

These things don't look so bad in ISO as associatives when uncertain about 72's slot, but if I assume that he's scum, I think it points to pi/Sera over UNOwen.

[GuiltyLion]

The shift that happens here is also pretty noteworthy now that we know TTJT is town

The situation was this: 72offsuit driving a TTJT wagon, I had joined as the third vote, and we were actively pressuring Mini who seemed tentative/unwilling to commit on TTJT.

Votecount 1.08

TheThirteenthJT (3) -

72offsuit, UNOwen, GuiltyLion

UNOwen (2) -

TheThirteenthJT, ItalianoVD

MiniMegabyte (1) -

WaltertheDunce10

ItalianoVD (1) -

Ydrasse

WaltertheDunce10 (1) -

DoctorPepper

Not Voting (1) -

MiniMegabyte

With 9 players alive it takes 5 votes to Eliminate.

The deadline for Day 1 is in (expired on 2020-06-28 20:00:00).

TheThirteenthJT is V/LA until 6/27.

Then, Mini caves and votes TTJT in 387. This put TTJT to L-1.

Immediately afterwards in 403 is when 72 starts his push on DP. Which leads to the next VC looking like this:

Votecount 1.09

TheThirteenthJT (3) -

UNOwen, GuiltyLion, MiniMegabyte

UNOwen (2) -

TheThirteenthJT, ItalianoVD

MiniMegabyte (1) -

WaltertheDunce10

ItalianoVD (1) -

Ydrasse

WaltertheDunce10 (1) -

DoctorPepper

DoctorPepper (1) -

72offsuit

Not Voting (0) -

With 9 players alive it takes 5 votes to Eliminate.

The deadline for Day 1 is in (expired on 2020-06-28 20:00:00).

TheThirteenthJT is V/LA until 6/27.

I think a plausible explanation for the DP push is this (assuming a scum!Mini partner): 72 noticed that both scum were on a wagon on town, and got nervous about how this was not setting them up well for D2 as townies tend to look for at least one scum on-wagon, and two of the off-wagon slots (Ydrasse/Walter) were very widely townread. Thus, by starting a push on DP, he either shifts attention away from TTJT (which leads to TTJT being a viable elimination candidate later in the game if DP wagon goes through), or he sets himself up to push DP again on D2 and also for townies to make themselves look worse by piling on TTJT past this point.

[GuiltyLion]

I'm also kinda suspicious again here by him ultimately evolving from a {TTJT/Uno} pool to a DoctorPepper push - while also being open to voting pi/Sera without explicitly putting them in an elimination pool. Again, would like to see if you agree on this UNOwen - if you're town and I'm scum, why does he categorize pi/Sera separately rather than just having a three person elimination pool?

I don't know the answer to your question, but I don't think it is as significant as you suggest. Both myself and JT were "scumreads" whereas pi was just a lurker. So there's a logic to the post even if he was faking it. I see what you are saying, that he was keeping pi on the table but out of the limelight. I'm not convinced that is the obvious motivation behind the post.

Not a fan of the vote analysis because it skips over a couple of important points that are not reflected in the vote count:
1) 72 had already unvoted JT by the time Mini joined the wagon
2) His next vote was then against Mini (which clashes with your suggestion above about 72 keeping the slot out of attention)

Whoops, I didn't catch either of these points (was on lunch break kinda rushing to post useful stuff, I ISO'd 72 backwards to see at what point he moved his vote off of TTJT was and only got to 403, completely missed that he had voted Mini first ) so that's entirely fair. My bad.

I think a plausible explanation for the DP push is this (assuming a scum!Mini partner): 72 noticed that both scum were on a wagon on town, and got nervous about

how this was not setting them up well for D2 as townies tend to look for at least one scum on-wagon, and two of the off-wagon slots (Ydrasse/Walter) were very widely townread.

Thus, by starting a push on DP, he either shifts attention away from TTJT (which leads to TTJT being a viable elimination candidate later in the game if DP wagon goes through), or he sets himself up to push DP again on D2 and also for townies to make themselves look worse by piling on TTJT past this point.

I might just be tired but I don't understand what you're saying in the bolded - could you rephrase that?
On the broader theory, yes that is plausible, though it also fits with you as the partner. Once 72 unvoted JT, he changed his pool to {Mini, DrP} and actually voted against Mini in 383. He then switched his vote to DrP in 404, which is after 395 from DrP, the post both you and Italiano interpreted as a pr soft. So that tallies with my idea that he was pr hunting.

I think you've raised some reasonable points but in the end this is the scenario 72-Mini requires: 72 knows his scum partner is not trusted by anyone, very new to the game and liable to be voted out at some point. He decides the best play is to make an attention grabbing push against DoctorPepper even though the lead wagon is a townie. When this counter push meets resistance he recalculates, decides the best he can hope for is to survive to day 2 and quickhammers in the hope that Mini can win the game from there.

I don't believe that. The alternative is that 72 has a well positioned scum partner, who he has confidence can win the game and then it becomes more plausible. The risky play is less risky and the quickhammer calculation is more reasonable (presuming he suspected JT was a pr).

Bolded - I was trying to say (assuming 72/Mini team) that both scum would be on an L-1 wagon which means high likelihood of one of them getting caught if townies hunt on the wagon -> which I thought was especially likely since I don't think Ydrasse/Walter would have been heavily suspected after the flip.

I can see where you're coming from and maybe I need to re-evaluate again. I'm not getting the sense that you are scum, and I'm not getting that sense (nor do I have compelling evidence) that Ydrasse is scum either. I had ruled out Italiano/Walter already, maybe it's worth re-visiting them, I'll try to reread again with that in mind.

[GuiltyLion]

I believe 72 is scum and I need to reevaluate who the other one could be since jt is dead.

Walter you said you'd re-evaluate here a few days ago

have you come to any conclusions? I need some more insight from you as to what you think is going on

[GuiltyLion]

Italiano I'd also like to jam with you next time you come to the thread, do you have any particular townreads/scumreads in the other players right now? Are you getting any scum vibes from either Ydrasse or UNOwen?

[GuiltyLion]

Real quick. GuiltyLion you pulled your vote away from 72 early on because you said you didn’t want him to self hammer. DoctorPepper said the same thing. Are you planning on voting for 72 or do you have someone else you want to lynch?

I definitely want to eliminate 72 today and I'll give intent to hammer sooner or later, but I want a bit more discussion on who we think his partner is. I'm not feeling especially comfortable with it being any of Ydrasse/UNOwen/Mini at this point and so I'm looking for more thoughts from everybody on this topic

[GuiltyLion]

Mini, you've barely participated in the game or given an update on your reads. Who do you think is scum rn and why?

[GuiltyLion]

The issue with 72 is that he hammered without a claim from TTJT. We got lucky that TTJT was a vanilla townie - if he was a valuable role, that would have been a major loss for the town. The standard in games here is to ask for a player who is one vote away from being eliminated to claim their role, to ensure that town does not accidentally kill off their members with night abilities.

72 is well aware of this, yet hammered anyway. That's far more likely a calculated move to benefit scum than a mistake as town.

[GuiltyLion]

In the interest of ensuring this game isnt stalled by the eventuality of 72's lynch

Rest of town:
Who are your possible scum teams today if not 72?

I'm currently thinking Mini+UNo

I agree with this. UNOwen's latest push on me is bad bad bad and I will get to that in a moment. 72 not claiming any PR actually makes me think he may not be scum after all

[GuiltyLion]

@GuiltyLion. Could you explain your transition from 718 to 744 to 757

I think I may have missed the reasons behind not scumreading Owen and Ydrasse.

When I posted 718, I hadn't reread the game yet.

When I posted 744, I had just reread the game, looking for signs/tells of UNOwen or Ydrasse partnered with 72, and hadn't found any.

The reasons behind not scumreading them were - I went looking for things that would stand out assuming a red!72, and didn't find any.

What about this do you find more likely to be coming from me as scum? Especially considering that if I'm scum, I

know

I need to be setting up reasons to push mislynches onto other townies, and therefore there's literally no benefit to me to be waffling and saying things like "geez I'm having a hard time figuring out who is scum here", like, that's the exact opposite of what I should (and would) be doing as scum where I'm finding fake scummy-looking things to push people on

[GuiltyLion]

Re: GuiltyLion, I feel more strongly that he is scum than before. I had noticed that the reasons he suspected me over Ydrasse never materialised and also his case against Mini felt like he was more concerned with trying to get me to consider Mini-72 rather than it being something he actually believed (that he was using misleading vote analysis adds to this suspicion). I also note that GuiltyLion went from betting the game on 72 being town (424) to not being willing to consider 72 town unless he flips town. Since his only reason for suspecting 72 is the quickhammer this seems a drastic change. That makes me think GuiltyLion either knows 72 is going to flip scum and doesn't want to be seen as defending him or knows he is going to flip town and wants to frame the day in such a way as to be useless post flip.

so on this

a) Do you not see how a quickhammer is the precise reason for a drastic change
b) Again, as I just pointed out to Italiano - what on earth is the motivation/benefit to scum!me for ... failing to make a case on people? Why do you see that as something that I'm intentionally calculating to do as scum? I was exactly trying to get you to consider Mini-72, because I'm really struggling to find a solve that makes sense with scum!72 and trying to explore a variety of options.

One other point on the "misleading vote analysis" - it's pretty clear I didn't go back and pay close attention to that sequence

regardless of my alignment

, because if I knew that I was wrong and going to be corrected/called out for that, I wouldn't have posted it. Do you actually think scum!me knew that 72 had unvoted earlier than I was going to claim, and went and deliberately lied about it, hoping that nobody went back to check on it?

Then, the next question I'd pose to you is - given that I clearly was mistaken/erroneous, why is scum!GL less likely to make sure he is right about things like that than town!GL?

[GuiltyLion]

I really don't see why scum!72 wouldn't claim a PR there to try to out the PR.

It makes no sense to me as a scum move. Obviously it'd be an implausible claim, but at the very least it would force the real town PRs to CC to make sure he is lynched.

I don't think 72 is scum.

VOTE: MiniMegabyte

This is the lynch that should happen. MiniMegabyte is coasting and hasn't taken any useful/definitive stances on most of the slots in this game. I think her play makes a lot of sense as someone who is

not

partnered with 72, whereas it does make little sense as someone who

is

partnered with 72.

72 and DocPep, what are your thoughts on this?

[GuiltyLion]

anyways I was on vacation and kinda putting this game on the backburner a bit but I intend to play a lot with the remaining time, so I'll be around. I have more things I might want to say depending on how the votes go

Doctor Pepper can you jam with me on 72 claiming VT there? I strongly feel that's a genuine claim. Scum!72 has every reason to claim a PR there

[GuiltyLion]

my worry is if 72 does flip town we're in trouble at this point

Italiano and UNOwen are set to vote me, a game losing miselimination, and scum would also be free to CC any PRs as needed.

which is why I think 72 would have claimed PR if scum, it would at least set the partner up to guaranteed murk an important PR at night and give them a fighting chance. Only way he's scum is if he's completely given up on the game IMO

[GuiltyLion]

i'm similarly wary of the VT claim because fmpov it is the only option for a scum 72 to do right now that could contribute to any survival.

but does this even contribute to his survival? like I think he's highly likely going down either way, why not just claim doctor or JKer and force the counterclaim

[GuiltyLion]

I really don't see why scum!72 wouldn't claim a PR there to try to out the PR.

It makes no sense to me as a scum move. Obviously it'd be an implausible claim, but at the very least it would force the real town PRs to CC to make sure he is lynched.

I don't think 72 is scum.

VOTE: MiniMegabyte

This is the lynch that should happen. MiniMegabyte is coasting and hasn't taken any useful/definitive stances on most of the slots in this game. I think her play makes a lot of sense as someone who is

not

partnered with 72, whereas it does make little sense as someone who

is

partnered with 72.

72 and DocPep, what are your thoughts on this?

Why Mini over Uno?

Mini just feels like an empty slot that is impossible to get a solid read on one way or the other, I'd rather not have to deal with it in 5p LYLO. If we pivot to UNOwen and he flips town that leaves me feeling just as screwed as if we eliminated you and you flipped town

[GuiltyLion]

@GL: you seemed pretty adamant that 72 was scum and needed to be eliminated, so is the claim the only thing right now that's making you think 72 is town? in truth it looks a bit odd that you're backing off of the elimination only as someone else has begun to support 72's push against you, but i dunno if that's the timing of coming back or not.

Yeah, it's the claim and the weird feeling throughout today of me not being able to find a solid 72 partner and everyone else seemingly unwilling or unable to work with me on that, at all. The fact that so many players are planting seeds to vote me either right now or tomorrow makes me feel like this is a losing game state.

[GuiltyLion]

we have 1 day left until deadline

I'll be around throughout. If we default to eliminating 72 then I'll vote there to make sure a flip happens, but I'm no longer confident he flips scum and so I'd be happy to deadline wagon elsewhere

[GuiltyLion]

In general I think if someone is genuine, they are more likely to double check their assumptions because they are sincerely trying to find scum. If someone is faking then they are more likely to make mistakes because they aren't sincerely trying to find scum, only pretending to. I feel like this is a fairly straightforward point.

When I'm scum I'm a lot more cautious and careful to check what I'm saying, whereas when I'm town I'm just vomiting thoughts into the thread freestyle all the time because I have nothing at stake other than to try to express myself and get other players constantly talking as well

[GuiltyLion]

Excluding the claim: do you think his play today has been town?

Not especially so, no. But at this point his flip was so near certain that I really don't understand why he wouldn't make sure to out a PR on the way down. What he's done has basically put him at high likelihood of going down with the PRs still uncertain. That's strictly suboptimal from a scum perspective and I doubt he thinks a VT claim alone is enough to avoid getting flipped today or for the rest of the game.

[GuiltyLion]

I don't have a problem with 844

if anything I think you doubling down on 72 here reads town

idk I just feel lost this game. if 72 flips red all is fine but I have this gnawing fear that he's going to flip green and this is a loss

[GuiltyLion]

here's a recent towngame where I efforted a lot and I'm sure made plenty of mistakes throughout - https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=82824
here's another recent newbie towngame - https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=81899

here are some of my recent scumgames in Newbies -
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=82570
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=78203

here's my other most recent scumgame
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=80998

[GuiltyLion]

I am the

Town Tracker

.

I tracked UNOwen to DoctorPepper last night. He is scum.
VOTE: UNOwen

on Night 1, I tracked Ydrasse and she went nowhere. I softed this a couple times such that in case I was flipped, you all would see that while I didn't have an inno/guilty result on her, she was slightly less likely to be mafia:

I don't have a ton of time rn and I'm still thinking, but I do want to say in case 72 selfhammers

I think UNOwen is more likely scum than Ydrasse

, based on their initial posts today and

some reading I did overnight

. Will explain in more detail later assuming there's no self-vote

some reading I did overnight = my night action results.

I can see where you're coming from and maybe I need to re-evaluate again. I'm not getting the sense that you are scum, and I'm not getting that sense

(nor do I have compelling evidence)

that Ydrasse is scum either. I had ruled out Italiano/Walter already, maybe it's worth re-visiting them, I'll try to reread again with that in mind.

[GuiltyLion]

No death N1 has 5 possibilities:
1. Mafia was not able to submit a factional kill (indicating someone who may have forgotten about the game or site-flaked)
2. Doctor blocks the night kill
3. Jailkeeper blocks the night kill by correctly targetting the Night Kill
4. Jailkeeper blocks the night kill by correctly targetting the Mafia assigned to do the NK.
5. Mafia submits no kill on purpose

I don't want to go in assuming it's 2-4 when 1 could be likely. I also think that while 5 is unlikely for a newbie, I would not put it past any of you to be that bold at Day 2

this is a really strange post for the JKer to make

and I'm not seeing any crumbs/softs in his ISO about who he targeted N1

I wonder if he didn't submit a Jailkeep action, and the lack of NK indicated that we actually are in the world where Mafia didn't submit a kill?

regardless, I'm not seeing any clues in DocPep's ISO that help us deduce who he jailed N1, this is the only thing that stands out

[GuiltyLion]

looking at D1 VCs again, Italiano and UNOwen spent a lot of time cross-voting, even when Italiano got up to L-1. This makes Italiano very likely town.

It's also worth keeping in mind that if UNOwen flips goon, Ydrasse is further less likely scum given that there's no reason

not

to use your roleblocking ability (and we know from Tracker/JKer that there is a roleblocker in play).

I'll reread more of D1 in a bit to see what else I can dig up, but I don't have time to look at actual posts now. This VC is interesting because all three wagons are on town, close to deadline:

Votecount 1.12

DoctorPepper (3) -

72offsuit, Ydrasse, GuiltyLion

TheThirteenthJT (3) -

UNOwen, MiniMegabyte, WaltertheDunce10

72offsuit (3) -

DoctorPepper, ItalianoVD, TheThirteenthJT

Not Voting (0) -

With 9 players alive it takes 5 votes to Eliminate.

The deadline for Day 1 is in (expired on 2020-06-28 20:00:00).

usually scum don't group up in this situation when there's no need to, out of fear of being linked together and because there's benefit to having multiple options to eliminate. But like I said, we also have some evidence that Ydrasse is VT, so idk if it's safe to assume anything from here regarding UNOwen/Mini or UNOwen/Walter viability

[GuiltyLion]

good game everyone! Yah the night actions were quite intense this game, well played by scum identifying the JKer N2 that was huge. UNOwen and Ydrasse both played a solid game, especially D1 deflecting me away from each of you. I hope everyone had a good time