Micro 950: Lovers Mafia

[Raya36]

Hm Holden already jumped with votes.

VOTE: HoldenGolden

[Raya36]

Catch up post:

Hey guys, it's my second game! First game is still ongoing in day 1.

My goal this game is to try not to do anything too stupid on day 1.

Weird entrance to immediately downplay yourself but I don't see newbscum saying this as much as I see it coming from newbtown.

oh so are we voting on players and not pairs so if like it's foo and bar and the indicivudal votes on each of them add up to a lynch its fine?
i think i get it now

This comes across as genuine although I'm not sure if this could be AI.

I think https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 5#p5474325 makes a pretty good argument for mass claiming lovers day 1.

Another good point towards town sleeper. I see this being much more town oriented than scum oriented and he's the first to suggest it.

Here's how I see it:

I agree we should eventually mass claim all lover pairs for the reasons outlined there (although i disagree that mafia doesnt gain as much). However, I do find some addtional value in seeing what arises before the claim in terms of reads and how they hold up after the reveal if info.

I cant go that much in depth, since If we end up doing it I rather not telegraph mafia any clue how to react, but for example: Player A scum reads both player B and C. B and C turns out to be a lover pair. How will A respond?

I will admit I just realized a potential flaw which is that we only have four day long day phases, so this may be to chaotic to try and pull off, analyze, and make a lynch in that short timeframe. Nonetheless, I think it's something that should be considered.

This is good and town oriented thinking. It's very clear what the thought process is.

@HoldenGolden Whatever we do, we should only claim if everyone claims. Your theorycrafting is already giving me headaches. I think massclaim right away will make everything simpler for everyone, giving a net benefit to town since we outnumber mafia.

This is making me squint a bit at sleeper because Holden made a really good point and it was very a very town-oriented plan outside of the chaos of a short day phase.

hmm in general im not a fan of it. at least not on day 1. the only thing we gain from claiming is associations, and we dont want to be speculating based on associations pre-flip. so day 2 we can do it if we want, but today nono. day 1 scum are somewhat in the dark, but day 2 scum know who all the pairs are so at that point you lose nothing by claiming.

i feel like people always put too much effort into gimmicking a given setup and too little time scumhunting.

Am I missing something? How does scum know all the pairs D2 without us claiming?

hmm in general im not a fan of it. at least not on day 1. the only thing we gain from claiming is associations, and we dont want to be speculating based on associations pre-flip. so day 2 we can do it if we want, but today nono. day 1 scum are somewhat in the dark,

but day 2 scum know who all the pairs are so at that point you lose nothing by claiming.

i feel like people always put too much effort into gimmicking a given setup and too little time scumhunting.

Yeah votato said it. Why did you change the person Gengish?

Good catch and really strange.

Well my only read so far is very slightly scummy on votato for not wanting to claim, so I'm not entirely opposed.

This is both good and bad... Good that he's willing to sacrifice himself to lynch his lover if scum and that comes from town. But also if sleeper is town and only has a tiny scumlean on votato for not wanting to claim then he shouldn't be so quick to pull the trigger on himself.

SCUMSLIP

votato is in the mindset for getting a mislynch today, which is why he thinks scum will know all the pairs tomorrow. If he's town, he would consider what happens the other 50% of the time when scum is lynched - which he should be aiming for.

Genghis is giving me scummy vibes. I mean he says this is a scumslip before it's even explained fully but hasn't explained why he changed the posts around earlier which could just as easily be argued to be a scumslip.

[Raya36]

Also I am obviously ok with massclaiming lovers

[Raya36]

Drew

[Raya36]

Drew and Kahn who's your lover?

do you have anything substantial to offer other than trying to get info that probably shouldn't be made public yet?

Why are you pushing Tux for this when it was my idea to massclaim to begin with?

p-edit:I'm not pulling the trigger on myself, I'm pointing at bugspray.

In the context of that post you are

[Raya36]

Okay, well I only said "I'm not entirely opposed", it was mostly just lighthearted banter.

Alright. Would you be willing to lynch yourself and votato?

[Raya36]

Yes I would. And honestly I'm finding his push on sleeper bad but I'm looking into it

[Raya36]

I've never played this setup before but I intend to use my PT to sort Drew and I think that's in the best interest of all town

[Raya36]

I've never played this setup before but I intend to use my PT to sort Drew and I think that's in the best interest of all town

Yeah I agree. It's not like scum can use it to their advantage since it would just seal their own fate. So being as open about what goes on in the PT is best.

Holden and I are mostly talking about set up stuff.

For example I'm of the opinion that since we have a 50/50 chance of hitting scum today. That it might be best to town hunting. If we can find a pure lovers group then lynching everyone else seems like a sure path to victory.

I 100% agree. Town hunting is likely the best strategy this game. Drew and I haven't talked much yet

[Raya36]

Yes I would. And honestly I'm finding his push on sleeper bad but I'm looking into it

What about it are you looking into in particular?

Weak town read on ray

We haven't talked too much yet but that's what the conversation is around

[Raya36]

Guys I've been busy in another game..... based on that game and the PT my town read on votato is pretty strong. I'll try to catch up later.

Can you give some details for why he's such strong town to you?

[Raya36]

YOU PUSH ME FOR THE QUOTE MIXUP?

Holder's post was quoted from my previous post somehow, and upon realising, I formatted the post to get rid of Holden's but managed to mess it up. How is this in any way scum-motivated?

I don't understand how the quote messed up but I don't think that makes sense as a scum gambit. And if it was it was very poorly executed. I mean post 7? Really?

[Raya36]

Can we maybe not L-1 someone getting replaced Sleeper? L-2 is ok but give the replacement time to catch up first maybe

[Raya36]

So its essentially a meta read then correct?

[Raya36]

Meta, if you're unfamiliar with the word, meaning you're reading them based on comparing their play this game to their play in another game

[Raya36]

YOU PUSH ME FOR THE QUOTE MIXUP?

Holder's post was quoted from my previous post somehow, and upon realising, I formatted the post to get rid of Holden's but managed to mess it up. How is this in any way scum-motivated?

by "his responses" you mean this one post? he is indignant, and then gives an explanation that i dont really understand. this one post was enough to persuade you?

I'm with drew. We talked about this in the PT too. There is 0 scum motivation to mess up a quote. If on purpose I see it more likely to be a town reaction test. But it was a mistake. He quoted post 7 in the post before that one. When he made his new post it glitched and kept post 7 quote coding even though he was intending to quote a different post. He messed up when fixing it.

[Raya36]

hmm in general im not a fan of it. at least not on day 1. the only thing we gain from claiming is associations, and we dont want to be speculating based on associations pre-flip. so day 2 we can do it if we want, but today nono. day 1 scum are somewhat in the dark, but day 2 scum know who all the pairs are so at that point you lose nothing by claiming.

i feel like people always put too much effort into gimmicking a given setup and too little time scumhunting.

Am I missing something? How does scum know all the pairs D2 without us claiming?

Asking this again since I'm still confused

[Raya36]

Drew x Khan scum

Can you explain why you think this?

[Raya36]

Well yes but why are they your strongest scumreads

[Raya36]

hmm in general im not a fan of it. at least not on day 1. the only thing we gain from claiming is associations, and we dont want to be speculating based on associations pre-flip. so day 2 we can do it if we want, but today nono. day 1 scum are somewhat in the dark, but day 2 scum know who all the pairs are so at that point you lose nothing by claiming.

i feel like people always put too much effort into gimmicking a given setup and too little time scumhunting.

Am I missing something? How does scum know all the pairs D2 without us claiming?

Asking this again since I'm still confused

i dunno that i really have a better answer than the one i already gave... i take a lot of mental shortcuts and sometimes my brain skips steps and i wind up with whack-brained ideas.

Alright. I guess it's not a scumslip because that's just not a fact??

[Raya36]

I'm honestly a little confused at how strong votato and sleeper are trusting each other. I'm a little worried that votato is manipulating sleeper. (I don't see sleeper being scum so if there is manipulation it's from votato.)

[Raya36]

I'm honestly a little confused at how strong votato and sleeper are trusting each other. I'm a little worried that votato is manipulating sleeper. (I don't see sleeper being scum so if there is manipulation it's from votato.)

I really wish I could link you the exact post from the other game where I became confident in votato's read on me.

I do have a slight wariness towards votato because he initiated this plan that I don't fully understand..... but the trust I feel is strong. It just gets challenged every now and then by logic. I feel that khan and drew are mafia. Logic comes in and causes doubt every now and then but overall I trust the direction this game is going in.

I do understand that it's a meta read but meta is generally quite weak in my opinion. I like to use it to solidify my reads but never as the main basis of my read.

What is this plan you mention?

[Raya36]

An action comitted in anger is an action doomed to failure, people.

Anyway, I am heavily overgamed. Calling in Alexander the Great.

This post pretty much sealed the deal for me on votato being right.

I don't see that being particularly AI

[Raya36]

gengis seems to be avoiding solving the game and i just dont like dd tonallty

Can you explain more about what you don't like about DD's tone?

[Raya36]

I like Pooky for a town lean. I don't like his choice of push

[Raya36]

Khan said he was overgamed. His replacing out wasn't AI

[Raya36]

I like Pooky for a town lean. I don't like his choice of push

What push do you like?

Honestly I'm struggling hard with getting scumreads this game. I thought Khan was scum. But you're not scummy. My next in line is Drew

[Raya36]

I'm not convinced drew is town at all. I hope its not my paranoia getting the best of me but the push on votato/sleeper just doesnt seem natural

[Raya36]

Pooky what are your thoughts on Votato?
Also I thought you thought sleepy was scum?

[Raya36]

Fair enough. Let me find a post from earlier that sleeper made and my reasoning for it being town

[Raya36]

Hey guys, it's my second game! First game is still ongoing in day 1.

My goal this game is to try not to do anything too stupid on day 1.

This post is more likely to come from newbtown than newbscum in my opinion.

I think https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 5#p5474325 makes a pretty good argument for mass claiming lovers day 1.

This is the post I was referring to. It's very pro-town to claim lovers that way we know who we're lynching and we're on more even playing grounds compared to scum for info. Sleeper being the first to suggest this makes me think he's town.


The rest of his play just comes off as newbtown. I don't see any scum motivation from him.

[Raya36]

Is the meta based on only 1 game Sleeper?

[Raya36]

Also did votato tell you to look at the meta or did you do that yourself without his knowledge?

[Raya36]

yes....

So you only know 1 of his town games (I assume town)

[Raya36]

So you never looked at his scum games?

[Raya36]

How can you meta read someone as town when you never even looked at their scum games? How do you know his town play isn't the exact same as his scum play? Most people only show slight variations in their play. It takes a lot of digging and thinking about motivation to meta read someone. Not just that they feel town because they're acting the same as they did in 1 town game you played with them before.

[Raya36]

My concern is that you're telling me that votato is almost 100% town and your only reasoning is meta when you're only comparing to 1 town game. And Votato is saying you're 100% town for whatever reason. Are you sure you're not being pocketed Sleeper?

This is the one thing I agree with Drew about your pair. You seem very pocketed rn

[Raya36]

Ok soul read not meta read. But I still don't see how its possible to have such a strong read on someone based on 1 town game

[Raya36]

Did votato suggest you two form a townbloc or anything of the sort? Did he suggest you read each other as town? Did he suggest you two aim to stay alive or to team up?

[Raya36]

This setup has a history of 30% town wins - https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=True_Love

That's ATROCIOUS compared to what the actual town win rate should be if you played it completely randomly - just pick a random team, lynch all the other teams you'd win 50% of the time - since the probability of picking a town team is like 50%,

So instead of trying to figure who is scum, let's just figure out who is town. If we are 100% sure that 1 team is definitely 100% town - we can just lynch all 3 other teams and win the game if we're right.

I agree with town hunting rather than scumhunting. I'm better at that anyway (has nothing to do with the chances of being right on town being higher...)

[Raya36]

Sleeper, do you feel you have done anything to deserve a 100% town read from votato?

[Raya36]

sleeper do you actually have a reason for thinking votato is town or scum? Like I have a list of things that my lover bugspray has done and I just add/minus points based on what he does in the future.

Oh I forgot bugspray was your lover. What's your read on him? He so far is my nullest read.

[Raya36]

Drew x Khan scum

Like Bugspray suspecting me of being scum is why I think he's probably town - doesn't make sense to believe your lover is scum if you're scum, though he might be gambitting.


However Bugspray was playing a private chess game with Genghis Khan in his PT - and Bugspray used the Sicilian defense - and we all know Sicilians are all Mafia.

That's true. He's kind of in the same position I'm in where I think my lover is scum

[Raya36]

Sleeper, do you

feel

you have done anything to

deserve

a 100% town read from votato?

yes


He had drew and khan in his solve, town points.

I'm afraid of him pocketing me, scum points....

him not wanting to claim day 1 is the only other scummy thing about him but it was barely anything.

I mean do you think you deserve to be town read so strongly

[Raya36]

Sleeper, do you

feel

you have done anything to

deserve

a 100% town read from votato?

yes


He had drew and khan in his solve, town points.

I'm afraid of him pocketing me, scum points....

him not wanting to claim day 1 is the only other scummy thing about him but it was barely anything.

I mean do you think you deserve to be town read so strongly

yes

You really think you deserve to be 100% town read without a single doubt. This early in the game. I town read you but it would be insane to say you're 100% town.

[Raya36]

I'm really town between drew and votato right now. I really honestly think votato could be pocketing sleeper but based on sleeper's responses it doesnt seem that's the case. But then again it's hard to tell when you can't actually read the PT. On the other hand Drew pushing both sleeper and votato is great play if he's scum because it ups the chances on getting a mislynch. But it's also true that town should be lynching the team with the highest scum equity rather than an individual you think it scum with a towny lover. See my dilemma?

[Raya36]

Has bugspray been fairly active in the PT?

[Raya36]

Please at least tell me the meta reasons are based on town and scum games?

[Raya36]

Oh nice

At least the activity is consistent to the thread

[Raya36]

That leaves holden and tuxedo who havent been discussed much. Hoping we'll get something good from Holden when he gets back

[Raya36]

Unless khan REALLY did resign because he thought he was outplayed, but used the excuse of being overgamed.

I doubt that

[Raya36]

Think pooky/bug are town. I mean you have the really aggressive loud player and also the really quiet player. Neither are trying to blend in

[Raya36]

I think votato has scum potential and so does drew. But likely not together.

I think Homura is town. I'm undecided on tuxedo

[Raya36]

Unless khan REALLY did resign because he thought he was outplayed, but used the excuse of being overgamed.

Ok guys here's the trick. Let me use my degree here to show you scientifically what is wrong.



This is a bowl. It represents your skull.

You see how there is nothing in it? This symbolizes the clownfestia going on right now. Logic had gone out the window a long time ago. I suggest filling it with something like soup.

This was brought to you by the English major gang

If the bowls empty would you care to fill it?

[Raya36]

me likey picture book better

pedit who is homura?

Homura is meant to say Holden. Played with a Homura elsewhere and it autoed

[Raya36]

I'm not convinced drew is town at all. I hope its not my paranoia getting the best of me but the push on votato/sleeper just doesnt seem natural

Can you, or anyone on the wagon currently please give a detailed description with stuff like this?

Consider me an open vote. Win me over. Show me how it doesnt deem natural.

My concern is that he goes after both sleeper and votato. He states that the pair have good scum equity very early game for very weak reasons from what I can tell. He also jumped on Votato scumslipping which I really can't see how anyone could think that. All that happened was he assumed a mislynch D1. Votato votes drew for pushing 2 people in the same pair since they can't possibly be scum together and then drew votes Votato for misrepping him.

The argument I do really agree with is that votato could be very easily manipulating Sleeper right now and I'm honestly really getting that feeling from them right now. Especially since they're calling each other pure town and stuff like that with very little basis.

I'll be honest though I'm kind of liking votato/sleeper more because of that reason. Drew has been consistent. I'll give him that. And their lynch should definitely give us loads of info about drew and also bear too

[Raya36]

Unless khan REALLY did resign because he thought he was outplayed, but used the excuse of being overgamed.

Ok guys here's the trick. Let me use my degree here to show you scientifically what is wrong.



This is a bowl. It represents your skull.

You see how there is nothing in it? This symbolizes the clownfestia going on right now. Logic had gone out the window a long time ago. I suggest filling it with something like soup.

This was brought to you by the English major gang

If the bowls empty would you care to fill it?

The density of the bowls are too thick to drill into due to my short donkey height

don't worry, I just gave you a boost

[Raya36]

Do you not see the possible mafia motivation by having the strong townread in votato? Despite the self doubting of it, trying to purpose that you hardcore townread eachother is advantageous to scum in this set up.

I see that but the reason I'm not considering it is it's far more likely for votato to be manipulating him than the other way around where he's very new

[Raya36]

I had a bad day, I took a nap. What did you people do you?

Holden is Golden. I still need to hear from Votato for reasons.

@Sleeper I thought Votato said you two know each other IRL. Is that true, or did I imagine that?

If we lived in a world where Drew isn't scum because I don't think we do, who is scum? Also what's the votes on Drew right now? Also Ray where are you voting and why?

I can't decide between votato and drew. I think one of the two are likely scum. But I need to be fully convinced on Drew to vote myself out too but I will. I want to hear from Votato and see if it's likely sleeper is pocketed

[Raya36]

I think Holden/Tuxedo is town. I don't know yet for Pooky/Bug. I'm not fully convinced on Drew yet. I think I want Votato/Sleeper today. And if they do end up being a pure pair we lynch me and Drew next

[Raya36]

{Votato, Drew, Pooky/Bug} is my order rn

[Raya36]

VOTE: Votato

[Raya36]

Holden is very town. And tuxedo is just PoE

[Raya36]

I mean he does have a point that I'm saying I'll lynch myself and drew and not committing. But I think votato is more likely to be scum right now and we gain the most info from that pair lynched too

[Raya36]

Honestly town points for tuxedo for going for the most town read player rn. Holden/tuxedo is definitely pure

[Raya36]

Guys I suck as scum. Check my scum games if you don't believe me. It's almost embarrassing. When I'm town I'm usually obvtown

[Raya36]

Guys I suck as scum. Check my scum games if you don't believe me. It's almost embarrassing. When I'm town I'm usually obvtown

Can you link to some? This post feels weird when I'm the only one pressuring you.

Also, @Drew if the day 1 lynch does matter so much, then wouldn't it make sense for scum!Ray to sacrifice themselves day 2 to secure it? Especially if the alternative seems to be them dying day 1?

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p11816251

That's my most recent. I just find it funny that people are considering me finessing as scum when I usually die immediately lol

[Raya36]

Guys I suck as scum. Check my scum games if you don't believe me. It's almost embarrassing. When I'm town I'm usually obvtown

Can you link to some? This post feels weird when I'm the only one pressuring you.

Also, @Drew if the day 1 lynch does matter so much, then wouldn't it make sense for scum!Ray to sacrifice themselves day 2 to secure it? Especially if the alternative seems to be them dying day 1?

Yo why bother pressuring Ray who has no votes when you can lynch Ray if you just help me vote off Drew

This is why he's town

[Raya36]

My townteam is TuxedoHolden, I'm too lazy to read this game and Raya seems smart and thinks you two are obvtown so I can just blame her if things go bad

That's a horrible idea. don't trust me that much! Lol

[Raya36]

{Votato, Drew, Pooky/Bug} is my order rn

raya do you still think drew is scum?

Yes. I'd be willing to go drew or votato although I'd prefer votato rn

[Raya36]

That's a horrible idea. don't trust me that much! Lol

I believe in you

after we lynch ScumDrew, we will lynch ScumVotato and if I'm wrong about one of those I will hammer myself so TuxedoHolden can live on happily ever after

You think drew and votato can be scum together? I'd say if its drew it's with bugs. If its votato it's with bugs or you

[Raya36]

That's a horrible idea. don't trust me that much! Lol

I believe in you

after we lynch ScumDrew, we will lynch ScumVotato and if I'm wrong about one of those I will hammer myself so TuxedoHolden can live on happily ever after

You think drew and votato can be scum together? I'd say if its drew it's with bugs. If its votato it's with bugs or you

Just occurred to me that all scenarios include Pooky or Bugs as scum... so why not lynch there then decide between votato and drew after we get that info?

VOTE: Pooky

[Raya36]

Just occurred to me that all scenarios include Pooky or Bugs as scum... so why not lynch there then decide between votato and drew after we get that info?

VOTE: Pooky

This is a terrible idea Raya

but I mean Bugs could be scum so whatever I won't mind if you guys still end up losing when drew-scum wins that'll be hilarious tho haha

Well it makes sense. If Holden and Tuxedo are pure then based on associations it's very likely that it's one of Votato and Drew with one of you and Bugs.

[Raya36]

lol I'm 1 away from getting lynched by the obvscum Doctor Drew

Hilarious

What happened to being fine hammering yourself?

[Raya36]

I have 152 posts in this game and it hasn't even been 12 hours since I replaced in, there's no fucking way I'm scum. you guys need to get a clue

can't say the same for Bugs. And by PoE one of you has a very high chance of being scum. Also if you have 17 years of experience I'm sure you're great at posting a lot as scum

[Raya36]

@ Raya

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=94&t=81024


this is Drew's PT from the last lovers game.

just letting you know what type of snake you're in bed with

Well we certainly didn't declare ourselves a masonry lol
I'm not seeing manipulation this game

[Raya36]

I really want Pooky and Bug lynched today guys and I think the traction pulling away from them suggests their buddy going after someone else.

Drew and votato/sleeper are extremely unlikely to be buddies. Holden/Tuxedo are very likely to be pure. So that means bugs and pooky contain 1 scum. Think about it

[Raya36]

I leave for 1 day and you guys finish the whole game without me!

Also sorry drew. I really thought you were scummy but I guess it was paranoia getting the best of me

[Raya36]

I leave for 1 day and you guys finish the whole game without me!

Also sorry drew. I really thought you were scummy but I guess it was paranoia getting the best of me

No worries, you at least were reasonable with your reads.

As I said in the PT, I get why I come off as scummy.......but I don't get when people get to that point not using logic.

I think it was the aggression and paranoia. I just saw you pushing for a mislynch and nothing else. You seemed overly confident

[Raya36]

Thank you everyone for playing the game, I do plan on modding this setup again! In addition to a large theme I've been working on.

For the next game I am adjusting the deadlines to 7 days on day 1 and 5 days on day 2+. Deadlines here felt really short even if they never mattered. I am trying to find a balance that allows games to move quickly and I am still not sure what that is given that number is different for every player base.

Those sound like reasonable deadlines to me.
Thank you for modding!