Newbie 2014: Aesthetic | Game Over

[Micc]

ok so Elo with votes already in play.

I'm taking mikul to be an un-cc'd jailkeeper by the posts on this page. someone correct me if I'm wrong.

[Micc]

so I'm town. we can play the hammer testing game or I can read the game, but preferably not both at once.

and I'm going to start reading the game, so please unvote

[Micc]

I skimmed through the pages and realised that post 27 wasn't perceived well.

Nice to meet yall!! I know we can't stay friendly forever,

but not having to choose a solid vote is pretty calming.

The dice say Vote: mutesa1

nothing against you m8 just had to do something..

It's pretty obvious that the alignment known to have a problem with choosing a solid vote and urge to

do something

is the mafia, and any sane player would know this. To think that scum!Vexo typed that down and didn't feel even a tiny urge to scrutinise is a stretch, don't you think? I know for a fact that this slot is town and I can assure you that this is an authentic

case of TStBS

. Normally I wouldn't adopt a defensive tone like this, but we will lose both of our PRs with no extra information if we carry out a mislynch (assuming no CCs - A1).

Obviously the best move for scum at the moment would be to join the Nash wagon, and I'm confident that there's scum in {Town Looter, brassherald, ArthurConyl}.
Based on vote progression alone, I'll go for Town Looter for now. I can spot a scum agenda there.

I'm fairly convinced that votato is town.

If any of you have cases on one of the three, I'm all ears.

can you explain where this read came from and what changed to get to the point you're voting this slot now?

[Micc]

I kind of want to Gambit this game

I want to Lynch Anthony and if he flips scum it basically confirms herald. I don't think he would bus him what that read scum

If Anthony flips town we lynch herald no matter what.

And hope that Poe works

best I can tell Anthony (Ydrasse) was eliminated, but you're now voting Nash and not brassherald (LQ).

can you fill me in on what changed for you?

[Micc]

We have a 50/50 chance of getting it right

this poe pool of four people has been mentioned many times Day 2. can you clarify who this pool is exactly? by my count there are 5 non PR claims alive at this point and you have considered all of them at some point or another.

Anthony/ydrasse
nash
town looter
brassherald/LQ
votato/micc

[Micc]

Also, I must not have read closely enough because I never saw the cop claim.

what was the purpose of this post?

[Micc]

We have a few hours to Lynch.

Was this true? seems to conflict with the timer expiration date in the mod's vc earlier on this page.

Ydrasse (3) - Lunatic, votato, Mikul

is a really interesting wagon to have with only hours left until the deadline. That's me and two confirmed town. So the flow of the game here is clearly that mafia are content with the presumption that Anthony/ydrasse will eventually get eliminated. Just have to solve who exactly that is. realistic argument could be made for any of the three off the top of my head, but I will probably reread day 2 with this in mind.

LQ - spends majority of his effort pushing votato, essentially a vanity wagon that was never happening. there's maybe some town points to be had for not hammering at (four hours? left in the day, but its also easy to see how he was leading himself into hammering.
TL - was on Nash but not pushing the wagon at all, and seemed pretty ok with hammering at imminent deadline where the options where ydrasse or him.
Nash - not around for the last 24 hours is a big sign towards being indifferent about the elimination.

having typed this out I think that the LQ / TL interaction at the deadline is unlikely to be mafia/mafia. It's kind of a dangerous time to be posting for mafia so the logical plan here would be to work out who is hammering in the PT and do it. the other person is conveniently not available. but also I just said not available was mafia indicative for Nash so I'm not completely sure how this holds up

[Micc]

can you explain where this read came from and what changed to get to the point you're voting this slot now?

A night kill was carried out even after votato was jail kept, meaning votato can't have been the killer.
So the chances of him flipping red was 33%, and that of the other three was 55%.

Ydrasse flipped town, and brass gave me town pings. So I'm pretty sure you're scum.

Ok so why did the importance of the night actions weigh so highly on Day 2 if you’re throwing it out now in favor of confidence in your ability to read brassherald? While we’re here can you elaborate on why you as so confident in that brassherald read?

[Micc]

TL, you and I would hammer Nash if we were scum together yeah?

It’s 3 to lynch. The VC is a typo

[Micc]

I’m not quite willing to rule out LQ and TL as a combination based on hammer testing, but I’m also not sweating the Nash got on me as much as I was when I replaced in. That response about his reads doesn’t really track with me, and the votes do support him being mafia here.

Predit: he’s kinda forced into that vote yeah.

[Micc]

Do you see any weird interactions between my slot and LQ’s slot? If not, what’s the difference between that and the TL + votato(me) combination? If so can you point them out?

[Micc]

I will say, if you’re scum it’s impressive to have had that ready to go so quickly.

If the mafia team is me and LQ, why does that warrant a vote change from you in this situation?

[Micc]

Oh yeah duh. I knew that and then promptly forgot about it because your perspective is not my perspective.

[Micc]

Oh yeah duh. I knew that and then promptly forgot about it because your perspective is not my perspective.

Really? You forgot because you know you are scum with LQ.

I mean, that is an example of my perspective not being the same as yours. It’s the right example, but it is an example. This post kinda only serves the purpose of throwing shade at me tho. There’s no other purpose right?

I’m not the one voting you so I really have no say in the matter. But your responses to me trying to corner you here have satisfied me enough that if I was voting, I would unvote.

With that I’m likely out for the night unless LQ or Mikul show up. Hopefully the game isn’t over when I get back in the morning.

[Micc]

Oh yeah duh. I knew that and then promptly forgot about it because your perspective is not my perspective.

Really? You forgot because you know you are scum with LQ.

I mean, that is an example of my perspective not being the same as yours. It’s the right example, but it is an example. This post kinda only serves the purpose of throwing shade at me tho. There’s no other purpose right?

I’m not the one voting you so I really have no say in the matter. But your responses to me trying to corner you here have satisfied me enough that if I was voting, I would unvote.

With that I’m likely out for the night unless LQ or Mikul show up. Hopefully the game isn’t over when I get back in the morning.

Oh geez phone.

It’s not the right example*

[Micc]

Not hammering.

Also, I must not have read closely enough because I never saw the cop claim.

what was the purpose of this post?

IDK. I didn't see that there was a Cop claim. That seemed like an important detail I missed, but I honestly can't remember why it mattered.

It’s a really weird post for you to make in the context of both PRs already having been revealed, something you did acknowledge prior to this post.

I understand what lunatic/mikul/votato we’re going for with the reaction test of pushing Ydrasse for a claim, but the cat was already out of the bag by the time you posted. So I’m left with the explanation that you just forgot what the game state was? You’re fairly invested into the game by this point so I have a hard time buying that.

[Micc]

Does it follow then that you not pushing the cop claim means you realized the whole thing was a farce right after?

[Micc]

I kinda want to take the whole exchange as genuine town confusion from you. I think as mafia you’d have a more solid understanding of the game state, and even in a point of confusion, you’d have expressed in the mafia PT instead of the thread.

I’m not ready to bet the game on this read, but it’s where I’m at right now.

[Micc]

You bring up a good point. Presuming Nash is mafia, TL shouldn’t hammer until Mikul claims a jailkeep target for the night. If Nash flips RB then Mikul’s jailkeep target is confirmed town even if Mikul dies. If Nash flips goon then the jailkeep target is irrelevant.

On the flip side, we’re headed to the stage where Nash is confirmed to be mafia. Another path to consider is that we agree who Nash’s partner is today while we have Mikul’s input and commit to that elimination for tomorrow. That’s the road I’m going down by questioning you. Do you want to talk about a Micc/LQ/TL final three now or not?

Predit: this post explains that I hope. TLDR: not giving mikul a chance to claim a target or weigh in on final three is basically slapping confirmed town in the face and I’m not gunna do that

[Micc]

Mikul and you are voting Nash. My vote would be a hammer

[Micc]

I'm fairly certain that the Scum team is Nash/Micc.

Ok, but why?

[Micc]

You bring up a good point. Presuming Nash is mafia, TL shouldn’t hammer until Mikul claims a jailkeep target for the night. If Nash flips RB then Mikul’s jailkeep target is confirmed town even if Mikul dies. If Nash flips goon then the jailkeep target is irrelevant.

This is mechanically optimal play, and it remains true if you substitute TL for Micc. You’re saying you think it’s mafia indicative that I want to make the mechanically optimal play?

Is there a reason you’re keeping that case abstract and not using clearly identifiable points in the game or direct quotes?

[Micc]

So what’s the catch then? For a pro activity and discussion player you’re being pretty prohibitive of conversation here.

[Micc]

yeah, I kinda hate that as a take on mafia theory. It's never been appropriate for me to say that as your game mod, but I'm happy to say it as another player.

[Micc]

i mean, there's no downside. So not following through with that plan is pretty explicitly spewing win%. why is this even being debated?

[Micc]

mafia has the option to do a WIFOM no kill regardless of Mikul pre-claiming a target or not. so i'm not seeing how that's relevant.

[Micc]

(also funnily enough, I did notice your lack of extravagant formatting in here and thought it odd)

Where is Nash using extravagant formatting enough that a lack of it being used here is worth mentioning?

[Micc]

i think its just a question of how much do you value a confirmed town voice? and for me the answer is quite a bit. i would rather have mikul involved in the decision than not

[Micc]

Oh and VOTE: Nash

I think you are scum.

People voting Anthony when Vox whatever did less yesterday smh.

VOTE: Nash

one of these votes is bussing

[Micc]

TL, if town, was on point early day 2 with Nash and brassherald reads.

[Micc]

I haven’t noticed anything missing

[Micc]

I think it's pretty clear at least one of TL/votato is Scum. I think TL has made some posts that are hard(er) to fake as Scum, so that leaves me thinking votato is Scum.

So Scum are in those three between TL/votato/nash.

I really think the way votato dropped off means he's Scum since he doesn't actually have legit reasons for why I am Scum and can't defend that position.

I'm not sure how much stock i put into rule of three as a tell, but this would be it if LQ is mafia.

i think more importantly, LQ and TL are expressing fairly accurate reads at this stage in the game. Knowing that day 2 ends in a pretty uneventful compromise elimination, my question is which of LQ/TL is pushing these reads genuinely and who is just riding out the day phase?


continuing on, this pings townie:

no ones voting yet , and we have time. It's not just activity as to why i'm scum reading you. I put the exact posts above but I agree that you being more active is not ai

it def could be you trying to do better as town so you dont get lynched from the same reasons but that is not the basis of the scum reads.

I get that, but I was also suggesting my approach/style was similar, not just my activity: I was wishy-washy/flippy-floppy with reads often, and I was also the wagon starter and pushed on Neutron Star - which bears very similar circumstances to the Arthur situation. I was pushing for reactions/pressure, not because I felt particularly strongly that either Arthur or NS were 100% scum.

My initial little snide remarks about lynching Arthur were reaction tests designed to test how Arthur would react. Again I find it odd that you would find this type of stuff scummy given your usual approach to D1...

If i knew that was your intent like 100 percent I woudnt

But surely the scum motivation for the snide remarks is a bit of a stretch? Supposedly Scum!TL perfectly baits the one towny who is likely to get ultra defensive and throw a tantrum, therefore making them the perfect mislynch target.

Nearly everyone thought Arthur was scummy, not because what I said, but because of the reactions I (and others) prompted out of him. It was his responses that led to his death. I contributed by putting pressure on, sure, but that's the job of town. Not doing it would be scummy too.

Now the votes on Arthur are a different matter. And you are correct in suspecting me because of my vote. Just like you should be very suspect of Anthony, Brass and to an extent votato. There is almost certainly scum in one of us four, and I know it's not me. I initially thought votato town, but that read is getting stale - they haven't done a lot to help town recently in my mind (but null rather than anything else).

pedit: gimme a sec

[Micc]

I feel like Tl quoted themselves and posted this:

LT's post 669 quotes me and links to that post, so that's probably what you're remembering?

[Micc]

Haha. Nice. Pretty sure Scum PT reads something like this right now: "Get on loot, with Mikul's read on him so strong, it'll be an easy mislynch."

I am happy to walk into the noose because I think, now, we have enough information to win once I flip.

Reads ofc:

• Ydrasse
  getting on me screams of opportunistic eliminating. This bumps the slot right up the scum-o-meter. Although you guys won't see that until my flip.
  
• Nash
  . I think this slot is scum. It's been lurky, it's made scummy posts. Just feels straight up scummy. Can you please fucking focus on Vexo/Nash slot tomorrow?
  
• Like many of you, I have had a niggling feeling that
  LQ
  is town, even though I have been scum reading them for most of the game. I realise this sounds inconsistent AF, but gun to the head, I would probably now say town.
  
• votato is tough, POE suggests town, but they haven't been helpful at all. Their scum record is impeccable, so they play a very good scum game. I think if votato is scum we lose, unless you guys can prove some how Ydrasse or Nash are town.

Conclusion: Ydrasse and Nash are most likely scum team. Although votato could be fucking us. Pretty sure LQ is town.

I am happy to answer any questions, otherwise hammer away.

I was wondering where the setup for TL hammering Ydrasse was, and now I found it. TL can you speak to why you chose not to address the points in Ydrasse's catch up individually and instead labeled her push as opportunistic? This is something she asked for in post 508, but you never responded to as far as I can tell.

[Micc]

Because I was completely convinced of her guilt and riding some sweet sweet confirmation bias.

You're going to want me to go through her post and address each point now aren't you...? Lol, F

no i don't think you need to address ydrasse's original catch up now. im not asking for it at least

when you say confirmation bias, do you mean following the opinion of the confirmed town players or a bias you held earlier in the game? I didn't see much suspicion of that slot from you, just acknowledgement that it was low activity overall.

[Micc]

I think youre misunderstanding why you should claim a jailkeep target. It’s not for the situation where no nightkill goes through. That situation is WIFOM and I’d completely ignore who the JK target was. But claiming a JK target is *very* important for the exact situation where nash is RB and you turn up dead overnight. In that situation we get a confirmed Townie and 1/3 odds turn into 1/2. It’s strictly upside. And as long as you recognize mafia can introduce WIFOM regardless of what you as the JK do, and thus ignore night actions in those scenarios, there is no downside.

This is an opinion I have about mafia theory. I’d express it as any alignment, so you reading me as mafia for expressing it is silly.

While I’m here, your N2 jailkeep on LQ means absolutely nothing considering you were already outed and 100% to be roleblocked.

[Micc]

Sorry, it should have been NoooOOOOoooooOOOooooo!!!! as it was lamenting Ydrasse being likely to flip town (at this point they would have little reason to lie). It was right about here my little confirmation bias bubble popped.

This would be a lot easier if you story didn't keep changing.

Please cite your sources for this one. I don’t see it.

This feels like big time shading of TL to me

[Micc]

I also was not rbed

you have no way of knowing this. stop using it for analysis

[Micc]

very likely not going to happen for the reasons you mentioned.

which is absolutely fine because then you, a confirmed town voice makes it to final 4.

i've even taken it a step farther and said i'm comfortable agreeing on a final elimination during this day phase. right now i think that final elimination should be LQ, but I'm still evaluating and not quite set

I also was not rbed

you have no way of knowing this. stop using it for analysis

Unless another person told me wrong, it would tell you that your action failed.


@mod would I be informed of it failed.

i've moderated upwards of 30 newbie games. you would not be told your action failed as a jailkeeper who was roleblocked. tracker on the other had would know by virtue of receiving "no result" instead of "no one" or "name".

[Micc]

votato had only been on site a few months. i can't speak to how much experience he had playing elsewhere.

can you quote that exchange for me? i don't remember seeing it

[Micc]

No one is told whether they are roleblocked. Even a pr would say that their action failed but it wouldnt say whether they were roleblocked or the target were jkd

Yeah, so this is absolutely correct. You're just taking "even a pr would say their action failed" to be true even if the action was one that doesn't inherently receive a result.

That's not the case. If your power (such as jailkeeper) doesn't inherently receive a result, then you'd never know you were blocked. Were as if your action receives a result (such as tracker) you'd be told "no result" instead of something else, which is indication you'd been blocked.

seems like a big misunderstanding and votato never realize you misinterpreted his statement. he was fine with you taking him to be more likely to be town just on the information that if he was mafia there was a 50% chance you would have blocked him from carrying out the nightkill.

predit: yes that works. alternatively this lets you make a certain word link to a certain post: really useful to me as a moderator

Code: Select all

[post=266]word[/post]

word

[Micc]

However he typed it , he knew I was townreading him because I believed I would have been told and he let me run with it all game

that's not how i read it.

and i think if any of the experienced SE's took it that way they'd have challenged that thinking. heck i'm challenging that thinking myself and i'm the guy who inherited the slot supposedly benefiting from it.

[Micc]

VOTE: Nash
you may go to the dead thread now

[Micc]

Sorry, it should have been NoooOOOOoooooOOOooooo!!!! as it was lamenting Ydrasse being likely to flip town (at this point they would have little reason to lie). It was right about here my little confirmation bias bubble popped.

This would be a lot easier if you story didn't keep changing.

Please cite your sources for this one. I don’t see it.

This feels like big time shading of TL to me

not letting this one go, even if we’re moving onto the next day phase

[Micc]

Oh? You don't see a conflicting narrative from Tl at ALL? I think it's about as clear as mud what Tl's original intention was given what he's said. You disagree? Why?

I took TL’s post to be lamenting the likely town flip. “Clear as mud” means not clear at all, yeah? I disagree then.

I’m just looking for you to cite sources on where TL has kept changing his story. Because as far as I’m concerned you asked TL to provide context on a post and he gave it to you.

Just because you have a theory that TL is lying about the intentions of a post doesn’t mean he has changed his story. I think it’s really misrepresentative for you to push that as a case.

[Micc]

I intend to vote LQ today.

[Micc]

I’d say that’s just a small part of the overall picture. I was leaning this direction base on interactions Day 3 and my reading of day 2. I also spent some time looking at Day 1 over the night phase and agreed with the consensus that brassherald looked pretty bad on that wagon. Also Mikul’s most concrete read from end of day 3 is TL town, so basically there’s a bunch of things that come together to make me think it’s you.

[Micc]

Yeah. I feel like all of the suspicion of the TL you’ve given since I replaced in has been purposed towards keeping options open for you. The things you’ve pushed don’t feel alignment indicative to me, more like throwing shade instead. Meanwhile you had this case against votato that you felt strongly about that has been almost entirely set aside.

And there’s also other things in that paragraph besides my talking about day 3. So even that response kinda feels like you’re shading or discrediting me.

I guess my question here is, who do you intend to vote for? If we’re cross voting, I don’t really care to engage with you any more. If you’re voting TL or even not sure yet I don’t have a problem engaging. But I don’t want it to be the kind of engagement where I give my thoughts and you tell me they are bad.

[Micc]

Sorry. Today was busy but I’ll be here tomorrow

[Micc]

Yeah. I feel like all of the suspicion of the TL you’ve given since I replaced in has been purposed towards keeping options open for you. The things you’ve pushed don’t feel alignment indicative to me, more like throwing shade instead. Meanwhile you had this case against votato that you felt strongly about that has been almost entirely set aside.

1. It's called reevaluating. I can change my mind. It actually shows I'm Town since it's more likely that people change their mind as Town.

And there’s also other things in that paragraph besides my talking about day 3. So even that response kinda feels like you’re shading or discrediting me.

Yeah, but the rest of your arguments hing on that. That's why I talked about that and not everything else.

I guess my question here is, who do you intend to vote for? If we’re cross voting, I don’t really care to engage with you any more. If you’re voting TL or even not sure yet I don’t have a problem engaging. But I don’t want it to be the kind of engagement where I give my thoughts and you tell me they are bad.

What gives you the idea I will say your "ideas are bad"? Not sure what you are accusing me of here.

I don't know who I am going to vote for yet.

1. ok, but I think your stated reasons for reevaluating are suspect so I'm not taking the change of heart to be made in good faith.
2. I don't see the connection that makes my read of day 3 hing on the general consensus of dead players, or of my day 1 & 2 reads.
3. That's what I took your 751 to be saying. That post's only purpose is to discredit my opinion.

So then when I combine point 1 with point 3 I feel like they contradict in that while 1 might be an honest attempt to get your vote right, 3 makes it feel like you're not here to have a good faith conversation. I'm at the point where I plan to vote you. So I feel like its on you to either cross votes with me or make a compelling argument for TL as mafia.

Like... How can I control how you see my pred? I can't really do anything about that. The only thing I can attack is what you said about my play.

I get that you can't really answer for brassherald, just as I can't really answer for votato. I don't really get why you have to attack my opinion about your play?

[Micc]

Briefly where I am at (phone post so apologies in advance): leaning Micc as scum. While I initially agreed with votato about LQ posting differently, they have reverted to norm (from a very brief skim of their other threads). Also I think getting on me when there was an opportunity to pile on Micc is indicative of town behaviour. And in this scenario it makes sense for Micc trying to pocket me using LQs odd misrepresentation - which for the record, could be AI, but could also be due to LQs style and trying to apply pressure, so nullish for me.

It’s not 100% thou. LQ

has

been making a pretty weird argument by focussing on the micro of my behaviour (which is will tend to always make someone like me look scummy, as I tend to summarise thoughts rather than be very detailed, which leads to micro inconsistencies). And there is good scum motivation to target me given I am probably an easier target than a town!Micc.

can you give more details about his meta read you have of LQ? what baseline of town and maifa LQ are you are comparing to? i ask because this sounds like a classic misuse of meta.

i think you need to reevaluate how you feel about the LQ posting that I took issue with. If you are still unsure about them yourself, I think its unfair for you to be already docking town equity from me.

I am, currently, buying your argument about sounding scummy, but actually being town

yikes

(obviously not just based on you word lol).

still kinda yikes tbh

would it help if I pulled up self meta of every final 3 i've been in the last 3 years? I don't think there is a single one that ends in any other way besides me being mislynched.

"micc has argued really well but it doesn't feel genuine" or "it feels manipulative" being classic deciding factors.

[Micc]

VOTE: LicketyQuickety

[Micc]

He even said he didn't want to engage with me if I was going to vote him.

for the record, i don't. i'm not interested in arguing for pages at a time if this is a situation where we are both trying to convince one another that the other person is mafia. that's not productive.

we probably could have been productive day 3, but that route ended with you not wanting to talk about how you make reads. so like what do you want to engage with me about at this point?

on top of that you call me out for dropping off or not wanting to win....and its like, I spent my Sunday doing things that are not playing this game. I'm sorry for that but get over it. it's not like ive abandoned the game.

would it help if I pulled up self meta of every final 3 i've been in the last 3 years? I don't think there is a single one that ends in any other way besides me being mislynched.

"micc has argued really well but it doesn't feel genuine" or "it feels manipulative" being classic deciding factors.

Pretty sure that is a fallacy of some kind. Saying you are Town now because you have been Town before doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

that's kind of my point tho! you've done the same thing yourself

[Micc]

for the record any questions in that post are rhetorical and I don't expect you to answer them.

[Micc]

There is a bunch of stuff, but it mostly comes back to me empathising with someone who seems to have similar play as I do. Not similar in approach or style, but similar in the sense we both seem to be regularly read as scum. I found myself thinking that any case I built on LQ would be, in a sense, identical to the one he built on me - and there is a case there (minor scum motivations, little inconsistencies, etc.). So I am sort of applying some super dodgy logic that if his case can be semi-legit, but wrong, its possible mine can as well.

I get why you might feel empathy in this situation, but transitioning that into a read is a mistake. LQ can have all these playstyle based things that make him look like mafia when he's town, but he'll also have them as mafia. He can claim, and he has, that he's so good at playing as mafia that none of those things are present, but it won't be true. At the end of the day, your empathy for LQ doesn't affect his alignment, it just adds to your baseline for what LQ may be thinking at any given time.

So then if you step back and think about motivations, Scum!LQ doesn't really have any interest in throwing shade at me. The easiest path to his win condition would have been stay consistent with the reads he had earlier in the game, and pocket me. You would've fought him, but you are fighting him anyway, so the risk of him being outplayed in a 1v1 was largely moot. Conversely Town!LQ has every reason to investigate and pressure me. He doesn't know I am town (well, he does now), and there was a real scenario based on vote records that I was scum (I wish I was that good...). On the surface it looks very much like proactive scum-hunting.

I agree with this take at the surface level, like you mentioned later it falls into WIFOM the more you think about it. The question I asked myself when thinking about how LQ has handled your slot today is "is this push genuine suspicion or not?". I came to the conclusion that it wasn't. Do you think his case that your post showed excitement at a town elimination during twilight was a reasonable case? I didn't. There's a non zero list of reasons you could be pushed in this game, and he picked one of the most unreasonable. It's because that wasn't a genuine read.

The question of, what does Mafia!LQ have to gain from the push gets a little more clear when you look back at the context. It starts all the way back in post 685, which is significantly before I had directly stated my intent to vote for LQ. At this point keeping options open is something that mafia!LQ is very much interested in. So much so that you can see his desire to make the last move throughout the end of day 3. It would have continued into day 4 (and kinda did regardless) had I not came out strong with my intention to vote him. I won't deny LQ and I cross voting probably being the play for Mafia!micc, but I promise you that Mafia!micc would have been just as open to going the other way if it benefited him as LQ was here.

Why do you get mis-eliminated so often?

It really does feel like it comes down to "micc isn't genuine" or "micc is being manipulative" most of the time. I believe at least some of that comes from my general lack showing emotion. its easy to mistake passion and a desire to win for townness, LQ even made it part of his case. I don't show much of that early in the game and it doesn't change for final 3. I want to win yeah, but i also want to have an interesting pleasant game where newbies can learn something, and I don't find any amount of emotional appeals helpful to those goals.

There's another aspect to final 3 where I'm pretty aggressive with cross voting the player i think is mafia, and I'm very often right. so I get into cross votes often and once the game reaches that point I'm pretty unwilling to engage unless its brought on by the person holding the hammer. i think some people take issue with that just because its an unconventional mafia theory opinion but it should be NAI overall.

so in accordance with that mafia theory opinion, i'm gunna let you direct the direction of engagement here. I can whip up a case and argue it at LQ's face all week long if you'll find it helpful, but only if you find it helpful cause it sure won't be helpful to me.

[Micc]

that seems like a really unfair use of meta.

do you not think i hold my own at elo in my town games? like what difference have you noticed that makes meta relevant here?

[Micc]

On the other hand, you haven't really bothered to pressure me at all. You have largely tunnelled LQ and, at times, white knighted me. This kind of aligns with a Scum!Micc scenario.

I kinda skipped past this but feel like I should come back to it.

You look more town here than you're giving yourself credit for. Even when you were being wagoned Day 2, the wagon was lead by Nash (who flipped mafia) and you were never really in danger of being eliminated.

id be happy to put together a TL town case to back this statement up if you find it helpful, but this was one of the more clear cut final 3 votes i've ever made.

Mikul saw it too. LQ not seeing it is indicative that he's not reading you in good faith.

[Micc]

yeah but at some point you got to realize that play style isn't alignment indicative and get to the point where you're making reads based on motivation.

the second paragraph of 785 is the best piece of scumhunting you've given in this thread. you didn't quite get to the right conclusion, but that was a matter of choosing a really tricky piece of the game to analyze. The way you went about analyzing what each player has to lose or gain as each alignment was really good.

i think if you ask yourself those same questions about motivation about some better, more alignment indicative sections of the game you can get this decision right.

some recommendations:

Spoiler:

Starting with this E-1 vote from brassherald, continuing through votato unvoting, and eventually a hammer.

Hey, guys, don't vote me if I'm acting like Scum, that's just how I naturally play. Yuck!

VOTE: Arthur

It's L-2.

Spoiler:

Starting here votato makes push against LQ. LQ defends.

quick is like 90% scum. i can buy looter maybe? but id prefer the quick lynch today.

Spoiler:

Starting here Micc pushes Nash, LQ and TL in turn over earlier content. LQ does little to no solving through the end of the day phase.

can you explain where this read came from and what changed to get to the point you're voting this slot now?

A night kill was carried out even after votato was jail kept, meaning votato can't have been the killer.
So the chances of him flipping red was 33%, and that of the other three was 55%.

Ydrasse flipped town, and brass gave me town pings. So I'm pretty sure you're scum.

[Micc]

I’m holding out how that the mechanical information you referenced is the thing where you can be reasonably sure my slot didn’t carry out the N1 kill, but I have a sinking suspicion that’s not it. Although I’m not exactly sure what you are referencing.

[Micc]

You can say whatever you want LQ.

I’m just not going to spend pages at a time arguing with you about anything.

[Micc]

ok. VOTE: ydrasse

And this obviously...

i'm not going to deny this was an awful vote on an awful wagon. if this is the thing that you ultimately base your decision on I won't have a problem with it. At least we'll be able to agree in post game that the second half of day 2 is the point where town lost the game.

the votato quotes you pulled up from early day 2 on the other hand seem like perfectly reasonable places to start a day phase and I don't understand what scum motivation you're attributing to them.

[Micc]

didn't he literally explain that while there is mafia motivation and inconsistencies on the way that LQ made that push, he understands that it could come from town!LQ. Part of the reason he thinks this is because he himself is prone to making similar pushes as town. And all of this came as a response to me questioning the read he made based on meta that you were town.

and my response to him was: sure, just be careful because no matter what LQ tells you, the pushes he makes when he's mafia are at least as likely to have mafia motivation and inconsistencies. No one is inherently scummy as town and not as mafia. So at the very most these playstyle things you've pulled from the meta aren't good indications of alignment, can you try something else.

[Micc]

TL used the word “empathizing” in the post I was responding to

I didn’t interject it myself. Maybe misunderstood what he was trying to say, but definitely didn’t pull it out of thin air

[Micc]

Not sure I’ll have as much time as I want tonight to dedicate to that request, but I’ll put something together

With respect to manipulating the conversation to be favorable for me:
That’s a consequence of this being a final 3 more than an indication of my alignment. I win this game by eliminating LQ. That’s true regardless of me being Town or mafia, so yeah I’m going to manipulate the conversation in the direction of eliminating LQ.

I think I’ve done a pretty reasonable job of doing that in good faith, and I think that’s less true for LQ, but I understand I’m biased.

[Micc]

yeah i kinda hate final three.

well played to the scum team. thanks to keyenpeydee for moderating.

i'll have more thoughts when i'm less busy