Open 784 - Hard-Boiled (Town Wins!)
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Do you feel it's possible or effective for town to 'townblock' on Day 1? How do you ensure it's not a scheme to relinquish accountability for groupthink?In post 213, Worcestershire wrote:
I played a few games on "AoPS" and on a platform called "Zoom", where it is possible to have eye contact with the players. I had a brief trip to "E.M" and "ToS", where I got negative experiences, until I found MafiaScum. My affinity with the theme is average.In post 212, Marashu wrote:I see you signed up right before this game - do you have any prior mafia experience?
I think it's too easy to spot the vig with that tactic.In post 633, Marashu wrote:
for the plan? pseudo-investigative, and also to keep the Hider's identity hidden. If the hider suddenly dies, we'd know who they were targeting without outing who they were. If they suddenly die in a later night, then that will confirm the players from previous days without needing to come out and say they are clear.In post 632, PenguinPower wrote:What was the rationale for that?
for the objection? This plan has a false positive if the Hider visits the Vigilante, but this is resolved if we have a Tracker instead of a Vigilante. Midari seemed convinced that we would have a vigilante, or at least didn't think it obvious that we should have a Tracker.
- I've played with word before.
- Lynch preferences are 31% marashu | 24% deimos or word321 | 20% Battle Mage or Tuxedo Mask | 13% Doctor Drew or ceejayvinoya | 9% midariPenguin Power | 3% Superbowl, votato, worcester,piisirrationalNash.
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My spirit animal.In post 662, PenguinPower wrote:I already said I wasn’t reading, so yeah. Show me.
I don't get it; what's so special about word? Did I miss a claim or something? Your tone is weird, btw - "While we're at it, care to also explain" comes off as snarky, and I'm accustomed to that coming from scum trying to play 'gotcha' games.In post 709, Marashu wrote:Spoiler:
+1 for wanting an explanation on word. While we're at it, care to also explain why Nash is a top town read? And why do you think there will be a vig?- I didn't say anyone was a "top town read" - judging from VCA, I didn't and don't find it beneficial to eliminate Nash right now.
- And I got the vig thing from skimming the posts where you guys mentioned there being a vig. It's actually in your post 633, which was quoted in the post you quoted.
Is it pressure if you say it's pressure?
- Is there a fascination with anime that someone could sum up?
- If there are any claims, please let me know, because I don't understand why I shouldn't be suspecting Deimos or Word.
- I don't really know any of you people, especially not enough to meta you. Who knows what you're going through IRL.
- I think it's informing when we have two major wagons going on at the same time. At the time of my vote, it was Marashu vs PenguinPower - I think Marashu is more likely to flip scum than PenguinPower.
- I don't see how "I think I've come around on" this person is an explanation.
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Do you still thinkIn post 757, Nash wrote:I still exist! I can consolidate the Marashu wagon if the top kill preferences are him and PP at this state.
VOTE: Marashu
THIS IS H-1votatoAristophanes is the scummiest?
Agreed.In post 762, Worcestershire wrote:Marashu, claim.
I don't know how AI survivalism is.In post 763, Worcestershire wrote:Spoiler:
If marashu is town, this guy is mafia trying to anticipate a good position on the ml scenario for tomorrow.
- Who's SUPP?
- Non-mechanical townblocs are suspicious
- Also, I've watched plenty anime, I just don't get using it for a pfp - you're nowhere near like any of those people. Representation's a big thing in my community right now.
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I feel like you're trying to attribute a shitty idea to Battle Mage when he proposed the exact opposite. I want to flip Marashu more than ever now.In post 825, Nash wrote:
You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.In post 798, Battle Mage wrote:i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.
If you had claimed in Marashu's position, what would you have claimed?In post 827, Nash wrote:I think Mara is town with that claim. Scum claiming VT instead of a PR when 798 was made is very anti scum. What's the benefit of eliminating town?Spoiler:
Beneficial to whom? Other than scum who now know where to shoot for PRs?In post 830, Nash wrote:Makes sense, but having a VT claim at the end of the day is beneficial and most probableSpoiler:
You skipped a step - how do you know Marashu is anything? I don't get this gimmick of treating Marashu like conftown just because you don't want to flip him.In post 830, Nash wrote:Spoiler:
Knowing Mara is most likely town is good info by itself, I think? Treating Mara as conftown will force scum to kill him at some point, which is good for us.
You're backtracking because people aren't as dumb as you thought they'd be.In post 845, Nash wrote:
This is actually very true. There's a 10% drop in our chances if we no eliminate today assuming mountainous even with a conftown.In post 842, Deimos27 wrote: No eliminating is almost always -EV in mafia, at least D1. This is the only time town controls who dies, and the only time there's a chance of killing scum. No eliminating denies so much info on the flip and surrounding wagon analysis. This is especially unacceptable to me since my playstyle relies on VC/wagon analysis.
I was wrong UNVOTE: NO ELIMINATEI'll allow you the opportunity to provide reasoning, but don't feel obligated. I'm fairly certain this is your way of saving Marashu.
What confuses me is Nash's unvote and vote on me. If he and Marashu were partners, wouldn't he jump on PenguinPower? Unless they're all three scum?In post 852, Worcestershire wrote:Much unnecessary discussion in the last pages. I still have the view that Marashu is scum.
It confuses me that we still have non-voters. I guess I'm just destined to be confused.In post 854, Worcestershire wrote:I need 3 votes on Marashu.
- Deimos is being sarcastic. If he really wanted to read me, he'd read my old games or hold me accountable to my flips.
- Also, "prompts" are weird - just ask. Marashu not being flipped despite so much effort is suspicious to me, about as suspicious as two players getting townbloc'd on D1 with no mechanical info.
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What I'm asking is, in this specific scenario, which PR would you have claimed? Because I don't think Marashu had a choice, and the only advantage I see is given to scum because they're the only ones who know definitively whether Marashu is town or not.In post 861, Nash wrote:If Mara is a VT, then I would have claimed VT. If Mara is scum, given that BM made a point about eliminating a VT claim, I would have tried to out a PR by fakeclaiming instead of dying without a purpose.
I'm used to conftown meaning confirmed town. But my point still stands - he's not. I'm not seeing where your confidence is coming from.In post 861, Nash wrote:By conftown, I meant most likely to flip town.
I don't believe you. I don't know whether to consider that daytalk between you and Deimos or you grasping for straws in an attempt to spare Marashu, but I don't believe you.In post 861, Nash wrote:I was being dumb. I did not realize that No Eliminating on D1 was equivalent to a nightstart and didn't take into account we would be one step behind in terms of a maf win at parity. The idea was independant of my TR on Mara.
I'm assuming we're going to drag this all the way down to deadline. Oh well.- Looker
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So I guess first I'd like to point out that initial reads post. The defense on Midari is essentially WIFOM. Regarding 139 he also says "but this behaviour pings me as town for a strange reason I don't want to discuss" - now that Midari is not in the game, I don't see any reason why this should be withheld. The read on votato feels forced to me - I could see suspicion on the votato slot, but I don't see how that would be stronger than, say, his Worce read, which he downplays. On the subject of Worce, I think this read betrays his later posts. He displays here that he is familiar with pressure on the mind of scum mentality well enough to be able to vocalize it.Aristophanes wrote: Mara, can you provide a Nash case?
This is where he starts shading brass. No real reason for it that I can see - those two mentioned were not the only ones on the Midari wagon. Maybe if he had provided the promised read list this would make more sense? But from what I can see, it looks like he's dug in that Midari is town, and is looking for people who are pushing a Midari agenda.In post 417, Nash wrote:READS
Spoiler: votato
Spoiler: Midari
Spoiler: Deimos
Spoiler: Worcestershire
I'll post my reads on the rest of the playerlist later.
VOTE: votato for now.
I would actually like to know what changed here - he doesn't want to pursue an Ari case because a wagon won't form. But then he tries starting a wagon on Looker. I don't see the logical progression.In post 589, Nash wrote:Yeah, I think the Midari wagon is lame. And I don't like votato and brass in it.In post 782, Nash wrote:
Yes. I don't expect to see a wagon form on him though.In post 773, Looker wrote:
Do you still thinkIn post 757, Nash wrote:I still exist! I can consolidate the Marashu wagon if the top kill preferences are him and PP at this state.
VOTE: Marashu
THIS IS H-1votatoAristophanes is the scummiest?This bothers me. First of all, No Hammer is pretty much the opposite of what BM is saying. VT is a safer mishammer than having lots of cases. Second, it's creating a false dilemma where lynching town or no hammer are the only choices. Third (and partly because of 2), it's distancing himself from the wagon that at this point I think he still has reason to think it will go forward, with the number of people saying they were willing to hammer.
I think this is where the point I made earlier about his displayed experience (or at least displayed knowledge about the game) betraying him starts to become relevant. "What's the benefit of eliminating town?" feels LAMIST. Also, considering how much he was considering mechanics of setup early in the day, him suddenly not seeing why the No Hammer is a bad idea does not line up.In post 825, Nash wrote:
You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.In post 798, Battle Mage wrote:i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.
Finally, look at the tone between Nash and Looker. To me this sounds like scum who was caught rather than town who is trying to confront scum (because remember, town!Nash thinks Looker is scum at this point). Some other points: he says wanting to go No Hammer was independent of his read on me - what does that even mean? How do scum know where to shoot for PRs, regardless of my flip? And why did Nash need to vote for someone on my wagon, if Ari is his top scumpick and has declared intent to hammer?In post 827, Nash wrote:
I think Mara is town with that claim. Scum claiming VT instead of a PR when 798 was made is very anti scum. What's the benefit of eliminating town?In post 826, Tuxedo Mask wrote:
What's the benefit of not voting someone out today?In post 825, Nash wrote:
You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.In post 798, Battle Mage wrote:i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.In post 861, Nash wrote:
I was convinced by Mara's claim and I thought it would be best to not go for another elimination and risk losing a PR without any mechanical advantage (50%). That way we don't run up a bunch of people like BM said.In post 855, Looker wrote:
I feel like you're trying to attribute a shitty idea to Battle Mage when he proposed the exact opposite. I want to flip Marashu more than ever now.In post 825, Nash wrote:
You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.In post 798, Battle Mage wrote:i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.
If Mara is a VT, then I would have claimed VT. If Mara is scum, given that BM made a point about eliminating a VT claim, I would have tried to out a PR by fakeclaiming instead of dying without a purpose.
If you had claimed in Marashu's position, what would you have claimed?In post 827, Nash wrote:I think Mara is town with that claim. Scum claiming VT instead of a PR when 798 was made is very anti scum. What's the benefit of eliminating town?Spoiler:
To town, because I don't know why scum would claim VT in that situation. Scum would know where to shoot for PRs even if we eliminated the VT.
Beneficial to whom? Other than scum who now know where to shoot for PRs?In post 830, Nash wrote:Makes sense, but having a VT claim at the end of the day is beneficial and most probableSpoiler:
By conftown, I meant most likely to flip town.
You skipped a step - how do you know Marashu is anything? I don't get this gimmick of treating Marashu like conftown just because you don't want to flip him.In post 830, Nash wrote:Spoiler:
Knowing Mara is most likely town is good info by itself, I think? Treating Mara as conftown will force scum to kill him at some point, which is good for us.
I was being dumb. I did not realize that No Eliminating on D1 was equivalent to a nightstart and didn't take into account we would be one step behind in terms of a maf win at parity. The idea was independant of my TR on Mara.
You're backtracking because people aren't as dumb as you thought they'd be.In post 845, Nash wrote:
This is actually very true. There's a 10% drop in our chances if we no eliminate today assuming mountainous even with a conftown.In post 842, Deimos27 wrote: No eliminating is almost always -EV in mafia, at least D1. This is the only time town controls who dies, and the only time there's a chance of killing scum. No eliminating denies so much info on the flip and surrounding wagon analysis. This is especially unacceptable to me since my playstyle relies on VC/wagon analysis.
I was wrong UNVOTE: NO ELIMINATE
I don't see any analysis/scumhunting in your pred's ISO. You're also the least towny in the Marashu wagon, who I think will flip town.I'll allow you the opportunity to provide reasoning, but don't feel obligated. I'm fairly certain this is your way of saving Marashu.
What confuses me is Nash's unvote and vote on me. If he and Marashu were partners, wouldn't he jump on PenguinPower? Unless they're all three scum?In post 852, Worcestershire wrote:Much unnecessary discussion in the last pages. I still have the view that Marashu is scum.
The one case I can see for hammering anyone other than myself today is if we actually find scum. That might be the case here.- Looker
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D2 flips will be decided D2. I'm not going to give scum any WIFOM.In post 895, Marashu wrote:We have 39h left. Gypyx is still catching up. We have time to explore Nash, even if it is just to set up for D2.
Do you think that he feels threatened?In post 899, Marashu wrote:I would actually like to know what changed here - he doesn't want to pursue an Ari case because a wagon won't form. But then he tries starting a wagon on Looker. I don't see the logical progression.In post 782, Nash wrote:
Yes. I don't expect to see a wagon form on him though.In post 773, Looker wrote:
Do you still thinkIn post 757, Nash wrote:I still exist! I can consolidate the Marashu wagon if the top kill preferences are him and PP at this state.
VOTE: Marashu
THIS IS H-1votatoAristophanes is the scummiest?- Looker
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Nightkill's over - what do you think?
Also - what do you think of Nash skipping over PenguinPower to vote me?
VOTE: Nash Welcome to Froppy, and I think Nash's failed bus and skipping over PenguinPower to attempt a counterwagon on me tells us that Marashu/PenguinPower/Nash are the scumteam.- Looker
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So now that we know Marashu was scum, who are his partners?In post 978, Nash wrote:Spoiler:
Because I wasn't convinced by the case on Midari. Your slot seemed scummiest through town!Mara.
- Assuming there's a mechanical solve as to why Doctor Drew is scum, I'd rather flip Nash now and flip Drew in the event BM is NK'd. I see no reason to sway my intent.
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I don't see how you're trying to engage or flip your scumreads. Also, I think you're scum, and the only reason you wouldn't jump ship from a scum wagon (Marashu) to the next biggest wagon (Penguin Power) would be if the next biggest wagon was also a scum wagon.In post 984, Nash wrote:My best guess would be TM/votato ignoring the possible mechanical solve. You are still in my scumlist.Spoiler:
Why is skipping over PP scummy? Circular reasoning?In post 1042, Aristophanes wrote:I will say that there being no mention of Nash, like not a single one, in Mara's Iso until more than 700 posts into the game, and then 43 mentions in the following 200 (I mean, half of that is the broken quote but still) with a sudden scumread is a lot more interesting than I initially gave it credit for. I am going to have to do some wagonomics on it and see if the pivot looks like scum trying to save their ass, scum trying a light bus to pivot attention and break up their wagon while getting rid of associatives, or like scum flailing.- "scum trying to save their ass" = Nash town? Nash scum?
- "scum trying a light bus to pivot attention and break up their wagon while getting rid of associatives" = Nash scum?
- "scum flailing" = Nash town? Nash scum?
- I don't understand what word321 is saying. Is he saying that he thinks I'm scum because I voted Penguin Power ("PP") at some point?
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Is Aristophanes your partner and you're waiting for him to get back before you vote? Did not having daytalk throw off your bussing of Marashu?In post 1084, Nash wrote:Tuxedo, where am I in your readlist?But
Spoiler:
- I feel Froppy has an exaggerated sense of self.
- I don't see how I'm "coasting" through the game when I clung tight to the Marashu wagon and didn't jump off when people kept trying to make it die.
- I'm already starting to not like Froppy. As a player.
- "I haven't seen Looker post since I've joined" - I posted an hour after she joined and even welcomed her.
- "What's your opinion on the new stuff?" - What new stuff? Be specific.
- "What's your opinion of my slot? Not whether I'm scum or town" - You [redacted], I don't even know who you are.
- Nash has a unique way of saying "chainsaw defense".
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That's a lot of stalling.
What do you think about Gypyx not voting? Or contributing?
Where did you want to eliminate initially? You avoided putting down a vote.In post 1193, Nash wrote:Agree with the hider list.
VOTE: PenguinPower if we aren't eliminating elsewhere.- Looker
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I think you're a really good player, Nash, so don't feel bad about losing two partners in a row. Sometimes people are just really on it.
I'm simple VT. Also scum hammerer, but they didn't put that in my role pm.In post 1262, superbowl9 wrote:So if Drew is hider that means he targeted BM and word :/
If looker is hider he targeted gypyx and and froppy, potentially clearing gypyx, which would give us 5 conftown and a win
(Assuming they followed the strats both days)
A visit from Dunnstral in the middle of the night? Oh my!In post 1272, superbowl9 wrote:2. Drew, Froppy, and Dunstrall investigate Ari, gypyx, and looker respectively
VOTE: Nash The skipping over Penguin Power from Marashu to me thing. - Looker
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