Micro 952 - The Coalition: ItGBSMoD [game over!]

[Klick]

HURT: all

Alright let's do this. This looks like a shitshow

I've skimmed a little bit in the last few pages and DK's ISO and my main takeaway was that DK was pretty obvtown. That would imply the current proposed coalition is sus. But I'll read up and see if that impression sticks.

[Klick]

HEAL: Klick
HEAL: Sleeper

Found one! Up to Page 4 now

[Klick]

HEAL: Clover

[Klick]

Deimos reads as scum.
Pooky is probtown? A pretty decent default if I fail to pick up enough townreads

[Klick]

I'd stick a fork between Pooky and Tux?

[Klick]

I don't have a town read of Pooky, they said in Lovers that they post way less as scum. And while they're posting more than many others in this game, they are posting way less than themselves. They are also being way less confrontational.

Game's been up for what, 10 hours? And he has 33 posts. I don't know how much he usually posts, but that looks pretty solid to me.
What do you mean by being less confrontational?

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

In that same amount of time he got to 90 posts in Lovers. He was also heavily pursuing reads. Just constant unrelenting pressure, and insults. He also cited his post count as evidence of his townies multiple times. Saying he doesn't post nearly as much as scum. He is currently not posting nearly as much.

Ooo that's fun analysis

PEdit: yeah. I think Tux is either right about Pooky or scum. (as of page 9)

[Klick]

Okay.

Sleeper is town.
Clover is town.
Pooky is lightly town.
Votato is lightly town.

Aldus is null.
Bugspray is null.

Deimos is lightly scum.

Tux may be scum.

These are literally my reads, minus Tux
This usually means town?

[Klick]

Like I'm not even looking for scum right now, so it makes no sense to run aggressive attacks on people since we're doing coalition building not scum lynching

About what I'd expect from a town response here.

[Klick]

They are also being way less confrontational.

are you high or something?

I'm less confrontational because we're in the look for good guys phase, not the look for bad guys phase.

You can still make a town block by aggressively scum hunting. You just use POE.

Why does this matter? It's like you're explaining Pooky's own scum viewpoint to Pooky because you don't think he sees it

[Klick]

You can still make a town block by aggressively scum hunting. You just use POE.

that's such an ass-backwards way of building a good town block.


Attacking people to try to make them slip doesn't really work when you're not in the lynching phase of the game. if anything it's a distraction.

I buy it as Pooky's thought process. I also agree with it in theory - you don't accomplish anything by aggressively pushing to everyone 'this guy is SCUM! I'm gonna... not townbloc them!' unless everyone is talking about townreading them. If anything, I think it's a bit weird that Tux is nitpicking beyond Pooky's initial response.

Not sure if that's the kind of thought you were looking for on it?

[Klick]

HEAL: DonCorleone

Phone is dying but I'm up to page 12

[Klick]

are all of yall on like EU time or smthing

Yes
Unexpectedly wild day, I'll be around tonight

[Klick]

I've been semi-keeping up with recent pages and they are telling me that Deimos is probably town
Going back to my catch-up~

[Klick]

HEAL: Klick/Tux
HEAL: Wug/votato

Is there a reason you specifically included our predecessors in this post?

[Klick]

Sleeper is probably the townread I'm least willing to budge on

PEdit: it's not going to help people remember that well considering I replaced votato, not Tux

[Klick]

DkKoba comes in and to their credit they pin the two people in the initial coalition that I'm least sure about. But not really in a way that inspires me to think they're town to start with.

[Klick]

I find it odd that 'I have a townread on all but two players' equates to 'I must be wrong' rather than 'these two players are scum'

[Klick]

Koba have you had a scumgame yet?

Not a conventional mafia game, just Avalon where I played my other wincon(finding merlin) rather than trying to avoid getting hanged. But I have plenty of town games you can analyze at your leisure

I already skimmed your towngames, why do you think I have little faith in your reads lol

TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert TMI alert

At first when I read this I liked it. But rn it just feels weak. Especially since they already expressed a townread on DC

PEdit: Deimos do you think Clover/Aldus are the type of players who, as scum, would start a fuss at an initial coalition taking off?
Neither strikes me as assertive enough to steer the coalition away the way you're describing (Clover based on reading this game, Aldus based on past experience).

[Klick]

HURT: DonCorleone
HEAL: Alduskkel

if my coalition is wrong I will self

Nahhh Aldus has like 4 posts at this point and none of them would inspire this confidence. I don't see it

[Klick]

Whoa you guys post a lot! I'll catch up after work

Like here, Clover for example clearly just wasn't around for the coalition that was taking off at this point.
I get what you're saying now about insurance exclusions but it doesn't quite add up with what you originally said and I find that a bit fishy.

[Klick]

So at around Page 18, Sleeper is considered town by basically the whole thread.
Similarly, based on what I've seen recently, I'm widely considered town right now.

This could mean one of three things, in regards to what the scumteam is doing:
1. Sleeper (or myself) is scum, and scum are fine with us being widely townread for obvious reasons. I doubt Sleeper is scum so I'm not particularly interested in this one.
2. Scum are in the small set of players that aren't widely townreading Sleeper and myself, and they're pushing for alternatives. I'd need to look at it more in-depth to see who is viable for this (likely anyone who isn't currently in the popular coalitions).
3. Scum are townreading us.

But why?

They must be planning for at least one scum to enter the coalition. This is where we can potentially get a lot of info. Scum could be fine with us being strong townreads if they think they're going to get into the final coalition, for example. Or their partner is in a safe enough spot that they don't mind town getting locked in.

Something for everyone to think about. I'll put more thought into it probably tomorrow. Going to do a bit more catch-up tonight.

PEdit: started writing this before you got into explanatory power lol. Same concept. Hopefully this contributes to your solve a bit then?

[Klick]

Coming around slightly on Tux? Not enough to be inspired to heal them, but it's a start

[Klick]

Pooky's 465 case on Koba is pretty presumptive of how town!DkKoba would approach the game. Feels convoluted. Its missing the third option where DkKoba isn't totally confident Pooky is scum and just wants to find their own set of town they're comfy with.

[Klick]

There's also this big assertion by Pooky that there has to be one scum on and one scum off the coalition. I don't think all scum players would play that way for a number of reasons and assuming it as the way everyone would approach the situation feels wrong.

[Klick]

DK's play doesn't quite match up with the scum thought process here imo. I get the idea behind them being scum because they are fighting what could be a town coalition, but tbh I don't think DK!scum would feel all that threatened by the coalition that was going on then. It was too fragile. If DK was going all aggro on it as scum then I think their reasons are more complex than 'destroy the current coalition'.

[Klick]

I need an early night tonight. Made it to page 20 at least. Sorry for the spam.

[Klick]

To be clear, if nothing changes by the end of my catchup, Clover is in my town pile. I feel like a few people are talking themselves out of a lay-up read because they're dry on reasons. If Clover and Aldus are indeed town, ignoring them due to low evidence is shaving our chances of a D1 solve.

[Klick]

Something to consider: I don't quite think Clover has the moxie to use 'remove myself from contention' as a scum strat here and think it will work.

[Klick]

I'm bored of this already

you're using the 1000 questions defense in which you ignore the attack and just distract with a bunch of random questions until the thread of the argument is lost and the post count is too long for anyone else to follow.

I'm going to stop engaging with you as it's obviously pointless at this time.

DK's questions were pretty good and Pooky's case wasn't very good at all

[Klick]

I feel like Pooky/DK could potentially be scum theatre? Not that it's particularly likely but like I'm not townreading either of them yet and I'm not convinced they're unaligned.

[Klick]

Why are you "pretty sure" he is town

he said i'd be shit at scum and he's probably right

at least i am in irl avalon

never played scum in forum this is my third game

This isn't a valid towntell. If this is still your reason for townreading Pooky then I'd advise you to reconsider.

[Klick]

I'm feeling rather good about all of Sleeper/DC/Clover still. I need to find one more.

[Klick]

I think Pooky's initial case held some weight but the way that he approached the argument reeks of bad faith + he's dodging explaining his coalition reads.

I'm bored of this already

you're using the 1000 questions defense in which you ignore the attack and just distract with a bunch of random questions until the thread of the argument is lost and the post count is too long for anyone else to follow.

I'm going to stop engaging with you as it's obviously pointless at this time.

Like this is basically a misrepresentation (the questions aren't random) and is setting up a situation where Koba even asking questions is "scummy." Then at the end Pooky frames his attempt to shut down the conversation as pro-town.

VOTE: Pooky

Aldus summaries my thoughts on the argument better than I could

[Klick]

Like this is basically a misrepresentation (the questions aren't random) and is setting up a situation where Koba even asking questions is "scummy." Then at the end Pooky frames his attempt to shut down the conversation as pro-town.

The questions are designed to deflect from the current topic.

I posted a pretty comprehensive case on why Koba's attacks on me are fake af and the reasons why are pretty obvious if you break down their play strategically in post 465 and 468.

They then immediately blew up at me and posted these beautiful posts:

also that post literally reeks of shit.

self

btw proof I said I would "seppuku"

nice try pooky!

your case has more holes than swiss cheese and I already exposed a gaping one. stop trying to gaslight u scum piece of shit

Explosive? Sure. Emotional? You betcha, but no real content or any real rebuttal to the substance of my case.

<snip>

Pooky doesn't like what DK is doing, but I'm not convinced he actually scumreads DK.
'they didn't respond to my case so they're scum' is not moving. Either Pooky himself is being stubborn in demanding a proper response, or he's scum because he doesn't particularly care about being right.

[Klick]

Koba, why are you suddenly townreading Pooky?

like seriously he's straight up lying at this point

its his ego speaking. I just. can't scumread him because its so badly ego fueled. like this is bad player syndrome where there's antitown play you know is in the range of their town game based on their meta and it hurts.

Yo DK, can I ask how you feel Pooky would be acting differently if he was scum here? I agree that his behavior is within town range but I see no real reason that it's out of scum range.
More specifically, I feel like he's obviously annoyed with you, but that doesn't mean he's town.

[Klick]

do you think koba is scum or do you just have issues with them as a player?

pedit: scum can have egos, and I don't see town confbiasing THIS hard on reads they formed THAT early.

Stop it, get out of my head probscum

[Klick]

Pooky since Alduskkel and I are scum, why don't we swap you out with someone else? Like Tuxedo?

thanks for revealing your real scum buddy

this game is easy

Lol you don't believe this.

[Klick]

im actually reading harder into their ISO.. how TF did yall let him get in so far??????????????????

Does anyone know if DK is normally this energetic/aggro as scum? I'm inclined to townread this entrance. It feels pretty genuine to me.

Yes, DK is just aggro. I read them as town for it in their one scum game. There might be sortable stuff in their ISO that I'm struggling to find, but their intro ain't it.

[Klick]

Mmm, I'm not swayed towards Pooky!town by anything in your 723 Sleeper. Is there any way you can help me see what you're seeing? I don't feel like there's anything he's done that he couldn't do as scum

[Klick]

why pooky town?

29 and 31 were towny

the idea is bad but it's towny to have it and then post it without thinking too hard about it

This feels really weak? Like the sort of thing I post when I'm scum and want to have easy townreads

[Klick]

Worth noting that despite the complaining, for every DK spam post there's a Pooky spam response.

And I realise that's rich considering this entire page

[Klick]

I've gone off the tinfoil theory of Pooky/DK lol

[Klick]

I've gone off the tinfoil theory of Pooky/DK lol

Wait, does that mean you don't suspect pooky anymore? Or you only suspect pooky?

I don't suspect that Pooky/DK as SvS the way I was earlier in the thread.

[Klick]

839 is actually rather townie by DK.

Klick/Sleeper/Clover/DonCorleone/DkKoba?

[Klick]

I didn't interpret it as 'literally random'. I disagree with your assessment of their play being scum trying to distract from your case with questions. I think they didn't see value in debunking your case more than they did, and instead used their time to try and sort you (and has since decided your responses to them make you town).

If you're town, I believe you're in a tunnel - I don't struggle to see DK's actions from a town perspective. What are your thoughts on my 947? I'm happy to go into more detail about that if desired.

[Klick]

Disregarding my own very uncertain read on Pooky, I suspect Pooky won't be agreeing to a coalition with you in it.

Well I do. I re-read DC's ISO and Pooky's interaction with Koba and now those players feel town to me again. But this leaves me townreading every player in the game except Aldus/Clover. So someone's pulled a fast one on me.

imma be real w you, I have been considering the solve that excludes them too because when you asked me why I townread clover I was like "well shit I don't really atm why is this kid in my coalition"

Talk to me about this? My thoughts are that it's going to be particularly difficult to form a successful coalition if we just write off the less active players for lack of evidence. If Clover/Aldus are town we have to attempt to solidify a read there today, even if it feels premature. And I agreed with your initial assessment of Clover!town.

[Klick]

I'm agreed on really not wanting Wug in the coalition. I don't feel great about Deimos either, though I'm not like super sold on them being scum there's enough of a worry that I'd rather not there.

[Klick]

#1000

Well done

Be back later

[Klick]

Yo Clover. I think you're town and I'd like you in my coalition, and I feel like I can convince enough people to be fine with it. Is that okay with you?

[Klick]

We agree on Pooky, Sleeper.
I'm rather hesitant to add Deimos. I'd need to be persuaded there (by you or anyone else). DK seems to resist that read as well.

At the very least, we seem to have a tentative core of {Klick, SleeperSoul, DkKoba}, and that's good.

[Klick]

Why does Klick/Koba/Sleeper-town necessitate a scum in Pooky/Deimos/Don? There are seven town.

[Klick]

Sleeper, to me it reads as fairly obvious that he meant to say 'you called my case full of holes like Swiss cheese and

said that

you already exposed a gaping hole in it. I'm still waiting for it.'

This is a semantics thing, he's not actually saying there's a flaw in his logic.

[Klick]

I've addressed that in an earlier response; that's a general heuristic of scum play, when in reality when you look at the players on the outside of both of those coalitions (Clover/Aldus/TuxWug) you find that for at least the former two, 'fighting' to get into the towncore would likely be against their nature even if they are scum.
Alternatively, scum just... weren't that threatened by an unsubstantiated D1 coalition and didn't think it would survive.

(As for my personal opinion, I think scum is likely TuxWug and either you or Deimos, with Aldus being a pretty null slot that potentially slots into a team with any of you)

PEdit @Aldus: unlike Clover, I'm starved for reasons to think you're town. When you and DkKoba were arguing with Pooky earlier, I found I kept agreeing with things you were saying but didn't get the sense you

cared

very much about the sensible things you were saying. Dunno if that makes sense. Basically I don't have a decent enough reason to consider you for a coalition right now.

[Klick]

Klick, do you think Tux/Wug + Aldus is a possible team here? Doesn't really have the explanatory power I'm looking for but I still can't find a scumread off the original coalition.

I don't see why not. The idea that 'there was no resistance to the original coalition' has been thrown around a bit, but if you look at Tux/Aldus' early content, both of them attempt to disrupt the coalition in a lowkey way (and they both choose to suspect Pooky in particular on the coalition).

Actually yeah this looks decently likely now that I'm thinking about it?

[Klick]

I don't like that people are trying to hardfocus on pooky's bad tunnel, its fairly blatant town ego from my point of view, so if you do townread me then you should trust me.

You can be town and also wrong.
I'm focusing on the tunnel because it's the most significant chunk of his game and I'm trying to read him.

[Klick]

That's about where I'm at yeah.

[Klick]

That's what I've been asking
Maybe you and I should just solve this and make everyone sheep us

[Klick]

I'm all here for you/me/Sleeper/Koba. I've gone back and forth enough times on Deimos that it would just feel like a massive risk to me, but if anyone can do anything to ease my mind about Deimos then I'd love that. I can't help but feel that he's trying to do everything...

right

, like he's presenting as town rather than

being

town. But a couple of things he's done have admittedly looked pretty towny.

Don is probably my preferred 5th though.

[Klick]

I'm taking this game seriously enough that I'd rather post in here when I've got the motivation to contribute significantly. And I'm pretty happy with the current state of things.
Going to sleep imminently but if you want to talk I'll be around a bit tomorrow!

[Klick]

I wish DC would play the game

Sorry, I just haven’t really been feeling it, not sure why

I think partly because it’s been very spammy and that’s just demotivating. Idk if it’s scum playing for a win in the most boring way possible but it’s hard to motivate to do what is already a 40 page reread to try and get solid TRs when I know a lot of it is just air but it’s still air that I’ll have to read

Sorry for contributing to you feeling demotivated. I know I make a lot of posts but I feel that most of them have at least one thought that is significant and worth a point on their own. Replacing in leads to me having a number of separate thoughts, and the two methods of posting those thoughts are quote-walling and multi-posting. I find that quote-walling gets me ignored more.

@klick, you’ve mentioned a couple of times you’re townreading me, and that’s despite my absence the last like 3 days or so — what is it you were seeing in my early play that made me town enough for you to still be wanting me in your coalition?

So first, I think it's important to realise that your (and Clover's - relevant) inactivity hasn't been a reason to not have you in a coalition for me. There are enough low-activity players in this game that we're likely to need at least one in the final coalition if we want it to be all-town. Do remember that you have 110 posts to read you from, despite being inactive lately.

Your spam posting on Page 9/10 was really good. Your first reads post is excellent and lined up pretty strongly with where I was then (and where I am now!). You posted rather stream-of-consciousness after that in a way that looked legit. Later your 345 read as legit as well - I see little motivation as scum for doubting Sleeper there, compared to you just... solving, if you're town. Your whole vibe feels like genuine solving.

[Klick]

HEAL: DkKoba

Klick
Clover
DkKoba
Sleeper
DonCorleone.

We're stalling. I like this a lot. You all should sheep me or talk about why you're hesitant about someone in the coalition.

[Klick]

You're just drunk from all the prods

[Klick]

HEAL: DkKoba

Klick
Clover
DkKoba
Sleeper
DonCorleone.

We're stalling. I like this a lot. You all should sheep me or talk about why you're hesitant about someone in the coalition.

sell me clover

Maybe later, not around for a big post rn sorry

Fuck it I guess Kona really is town.

Back to the drawing board.

What is it that made you change your mind?

[Klick]

I got the opposite vibe - I didn't like 1103 much at all. It felt out of place compared to their complaints about inactivity.

DK, can I ask how you'd play this spot as scum? and how that contrasts your current play? I figure you know how to read you better than any of us

[Klick]

That's fair and I can kinda see it. I was struggling to find the town mindset while seeing a fairly basic scum motivation from it (expressing doubt on something that would be rather good for scum!Koba in order to get townread). But your interpretation matches up more with what I've seen from Koba so far.

[Klick]

HURT: Sleeper

[Klick]

Why would that matter if the game's over after the coalition is locked in?

[Klick]

That was me Sleeper, not Koba

Pooky, this game becomes a lot easier if you're town. You should be more town so that I don't have lingering paranoia blocking me from just agreeing with what Koba wants.

[Klick]

I'll post words about Clover being town tonight.

[Klick]

HURT: all
HEAL: Klick
HEAL: Clover
HEAL: DkKoba
HEAL: Sleeper
HEAL: Pooky

Okay Koba you win.

[Klick]

I'm sorry I lied earlier. Can't do this tonight.

[Klick]

So I think Clover is bleeding town. Tl;dr: he's not putting any effort whatsoever into trying to get townread. He's

especially

not scum with the current suspects like Wug or Aldus.

we arent gonna discuss day 2 because it could help scum to discuss it now.

How so?

explaining that would help scum. you trying to bait me into explaining it makes me think you're scum.[/quo*te]

blink

...Huh? I am just-huh?! You think talking about day 2 helps scum and because I asked for more detail why I'm scummy for it... am I getting that all right?

This was the first post that really got me thinking Clover was town. I know this one will be a stretch for some people, but I doubt this bewilderment comes from scum. I also don't think scum cares enough to talk about this/gains anything from talking about this. Clover is just curious, and I think that comes from a towny place.

The whole vibe of wanting to talk about D2 continues throughout Clover's early posts. Read Clover's ISO up to post 124. Is this scum trying to get into a coalition? Does Clover's partner go in encouraging him to talk about setup spec for that sweet sweet towncred?

This game started 2 days ago and there's 700 posts that is impressive to me. Oh boy, I got a lot to get back into. Now time to figure out the best way to do this without draining myself out.

This game started 2 days ago and there's 700 posts that is impressive to me. Oh boy, I got a lot to get back into. Now time to figure out the best way to do this without draining myself out.

I have that effect on games...
if you'd like a summary I can give you one tomorrow when I'm off of work.

That'd be nice. I feel the pressure to try and catch up on all the pages I missed because I know if I can just get my feet back into the ground I'll be in that coil because if I can do one thing on this site I guess it's be townread but uh yeah coming home from a long day of work and seeing all this is pretty draining. I could probably do a few pages for now though.

Clover comes in and has no idea what's going on. He's not getting constant updates from a scum PT. Unless his partner was literally bugspray then I don't see these blank posts happening in quite the same way.

Up to page 20 and I think this works for me so far
HEAL: Clover
HEAL: Dk
HEAL: Deimos
HEAL: Votato
HEAL: Sleeper

Clover puts Deimos in his coalition despite there being almost no chance Deimos returns the gesture. What does this accomplish as scum?

I've been obvious town in my other 2 games on here so I hope I can show that here as well. I feel when I do flip scum one game it'll be extremely obvious. Well, maybe not but it makes worried to think about

What kind of nonsense scum tactic would it be for Clover to play the way he has up to this point and then make this sort of cocky comment with hardly anyone townreading him? I think it's much more plausible for Clover to be town and believing what he's saying here.

Clover spends his next few posts talking about the Day 2 thing with Deimos some more. This is largely questioning guided by Deimos. But it's posts that are doing literally nothing to contribute to getting Clover into a coalition. Scum!Clover HAS to worry about getting into a coalition to some extent. But Clover doesn't care about that.

The biggest reason Clover is town:

I don't mind not being in the co it isn't a great concern to me on if it passes or fails because if I'm in it I have more time to just town tell. Although, that should mean you guys get into focus on who you do townread. It's probably way too risky to put me in the co since people don't seem to townread me and if it fails I'm on the chopping block. With that being said
HURT: all
Good luck!

I also don't think you guys should be looking for scum and more people who are town like Klick and Kobba are 2 people I would bet the game on being town at this point. The other 3 you can make an argument for and I'd love to hear peoples reasoning for townreading slots that aren't them. I should probably transfer to a who do I think is scum mindset.

I think Pooky/Don are the slots I need to reread and really look at first.

Look at the game climate at this point. I'm mildly advocating for Clover being in the coalition, some others have expressed very light townreads there but nothing too serious. Clover!scum's Master Play is to... remove himself from contention. You'd have to assume his partner is extremely comfortable for this to even be a net neutral play (so basically just myself or Sleeper). For any other pairing, in most circumstances this is actively harmful to a scum wincon.
Meanwhile, while I think it's misguided as a town play, I can clearly see why Clover thought it would be useful to bow out of contention.

Also worth noting that throughout all of this, Clover has been catching up and scumhunting (that I haven't really bothered quoting, it's easy to find). So he's not just making some weird gambit and riding on that; he's trying to solve and play a standard game alongside that.


And that's why I'm having Clover in any coalition that I'll consider passing.

[Klick]

This game won't feel quite fleshed out enough if we don't have a Day 2, you're right.

[Klick]

DonCorleone can you understand that from my perspective you currently look like you're scrambling to mix things up, possibly because you can sense that a coalition may be forming without you on it?

[Klick]

Happy Canada Day hope it was a good one.
No need to catch up, just heal you/me/Clover/Koba/Pooky and it'll be gg

PEdit: because you care about it at a level that's more in line with a scum wincon than with a town wincon. If you!scum and your partner miss out on the coalition, you just lose. If you miss out on it as town, your odds of winning slim slightly but all in all it's not the end of the world. After all, in any winning coalition 2/7 town must accept being on the outs. If all the town kicked up a storm then we'd never get anywhere.

[Klick]

If the coalition fails then I think you're very likely town.

[Klick]

How much longer can I procrastinate before I need to start worrying

stop prodging and start playing please

I’m still not in the mood to play

If you're not in the mood, you're not in the mood. Happens as either alignment. You're not getting a town pass for not being around. Are you saying as scum you'd have magically found the motivation to make posts?

[Klick]

Do you think I’m manipulating you klick?

Yeah man rn I'm getting some pretty strong manipulation vibes actually.

[Klick]

We're obviously not voting Wug

I'm 50/50 between it being Pooky and Koba for scum in the coalition. I'll sleep on it. Don't quicklynch.

[Klick]

if I'm scum I was going to bring you into the coalition you dink. I literally put you in the pile that cleared you of being partners with anyone outside the coalition with you.

I got the opposite vibe - I didn't like 1103 much at all. It felt out of place compared to their complaints about inactivity.

DK, can I ask how you'd play this spot as scum? and how that contrasts your current play? I figure you know how to read you better than any of us

I have no idea personally I'd try to get both my partner and I on the coalition but thats about it.

VOTE: DkKoba

@all: we're lynching on coalition until we lynch scum. Everyone on-coalition has a 30% chance of being scum at base-level; everyone off-coalition has a 12.5% chance of being scum (and there might not be scum at all there).

[Klick]

Pooky's entrance to today strikes me as really town.

[Klick]

Don I'd recommend not engaging with Koba here as it's not really accomplishing anything for you two to argue past each other.

[Klick]

@all: we're lynching on coalition until we lynch scum. Everyone on-coalition has a 30% chance of being scum at base-level; everyone off-coalition has a 12.5% chance of being scum (and there might not be scum at all there).

Koba you should engage with this

[Klick]

I'm fine losing if Sleeper/Klick are scum so that leaves Koba/Pooky.
VOTE: Pooky
and I haven't been townreading this slot all game so

I've just come off this as an idea. Today he does just feel like he's solving.

[Klick]

anyways has anyone noticed how votato/tux and wug/klick avoid eachother like the plague for the most part?

At what point yesterday would it have made sense for me to engage with Wug, my strongest scumread?
Who DID Wug engage with yesterday?

[Klick]

If this was actually a thing that you thought and had conviction in then you'd have pushed it before the coalition phase, not after advocating for me to be in the coalition

[Klick]

@all: we're lynching on coalition until we lynch scum. Everyone on-coalition has a 30% chance of being scum at base-level; everyone off-coalition has a 12.5% chance of being scum (and there might not be scum at all there).

Pooky what are your thoughts on this

[Klick]

In fact Pooky, if you're town, and I'm town, our odds of hitting scum if we literally vote randomly in the coalition are 4/9, which is Very High

[Klick]

Inevitably we are going to have to whittle down the coalition. There is definitely at least one scum there. Those are slots we HAVE to find scum in at some point. Why would we put it off chasing a rabbit hole that might only have town in it?

I agree that Wug is scummy. I don't KNOW that Wug is scum. I KNOW that at least one of Koba/Pooky/Sleeper/Clover is scum. At this point, regardless of any townreads you might have on those players, you need to adjust them relative to each other because there IS scum there.

Wug/Aldus/Deimos/Don might be scummy. Hell, they were left out of the coalition because they couldn't get townread enough. But you're either shooting 1/4 there, or you're literally lynching in a pool of four town. And you can't claim you're that confident in all of Don/Deimos/Aldus being town, because you didn't have them in your coalition.

Put aside your reads for a sec and solve with the information that we've been given.

[Klick]

I think Koba is by far the most likely scum in the coalition, and I also think regardless of the flip it'll significantly progress towards a solve

[Klick]

Pooky's entrance to today strikes me as really town.

Explain.

@Clover: Why did you put Pooky in your coalition?

Also, I'm not voting outside the coalition today. I'm not convinced Koba is scum though.

Sorry, just remembered you said this

Something about his hands-off approach feels distinctly like a town way of approaching a post-coalition fail. He's got this one-track mind and seems set on thinking Wug of all people is the play rn. But it's different from how Koba's doing it in that there doesn't seem to be any clear agenda to Pooky's actions other than solving (whereas from what I'm seeing Koba is setting up like five different things with what they're doing and is kinda just open-wolfing at this point).

[Klick]

LMAO and we're not even allowed to talk about it. Great.

[Klick]

Aldus if you vote Koba rn a scum will die

[Klick]

Ngl that was part of it too.
I can't really see myself being interested in another lynch today. I struggle to see any of the other three as scum.

[Klick]

booooo

[Klick]

Hiiii Chemist

Happy Canada Day hope it was a good one.
No need to catch up, just heal you/me/Clover/Koba/Pooky and it'll be gg

PEdit: because you care about it at a level that's more in line with a scum wincon than with a town wincon. If you!scum and your partner miss out on the coalition, you just lose. If you miss out on it as town, your odds of winning slim slightly but all in all it's not the end of the world. After all, in any winning coalition 2/7 town must accept being on the outs. If all the town kicked up a storm then we'd never get anywhere.

If the coalition fails then I think you're very likely town.

slight yikes

Why's that? A lot of DC looking scummy there depended on him fighting against an all-town coalition. Considering that is evidently not what he was doing, etc.

[Klick]

Klick can you link a scumgame or two

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=83208
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=82266

These are the only two scum games I've played in the past like 3-4 years. The first one ended not very long ago and is a bit more standard than the second.

[Klick]

I just skimmed the last dozen or so posts of your ISO
What are your reads???

[Klick]

I appreciate that

I don't think it's particularly valid to townread me simply based on depth of content in my catch-up, no.
Thr main difference I've noticed in my recent town game compared to my recent scum game is that when I'm scum, I have a fairly strong agenda in whatever I'm doing that helps the team out in some way. (In the first game a lot of my actions were specifically geared towards ensuring Gypyx could make it to LyLo with a bunch of other potential partners to me; in the second game it was similar, I wanted to look like an unlikely partner to Cat Scratch Fever.) Whereas when I'm town, the motives I have aren't as clearly in line with a scum wincon.

Something I found when playing my last game is that I put myself into a more confident mindset as scum. As town I lack a lot of confidence (at least internally) and only really push for the things I feel very strongly about (see Clover-town here; I probably wouldn't lose much sleep over other wagons on the coalition, though I would place bets on Kobaslot flipping scum at this point). It's a lot easier to push the gamestate around as scum.


I'm also feeling particularly unmotivated when it comes to posting in this game and I imagine that wouldn't currently be the case if I were scum in this position.

[Klick]

In fact I've just worked out what exactly it is that's bothering me about the gamestate

A bunch of people asked me to towncase Clover, so I did. And then everyone basically ignored it (except for Koba, who just said they agreed). And now Clover's getting wagoned without any real reasons and without any engagement with my reasons for thinking he's town.

@everyone (but specifically Pooky, Clover and Wug):

I'd like it if you went and looked at my thoughts on Clover in 1234, and gave your thoughts on the towncase there. I've convinced myself that Clover is the most likely player in the game to be town, and if you want to execute Clover then it'd be great if you could tell me why those thoughts aren't valid.

Particularly, if Clover is scum I don't think his play makes any sense in regards to trying to get into a coalition that doesn't lose him the game. UNLESS Clover is scum with someone else in the coalition who has been safe in the coalition for some time. In which case, it makes no sense to vote Clover first.

PEdit: I wanted to post this about an hour ago and it seems Clover and Chemist have already made different parts of my point for me

[Klick]

UNVOTE:
Chemist where have I gone wrong?
Not considering you I suppose I'm between Pooky and Sleeper. Sleeper has had a couple of moments where I've been a bit like wtf, but overall has a pretty towny tone. Whereas Pooky was pretty consistently meh pre-coalition but has looked really good from the start of today.

[Klick]

If clover was town - why would he remove himself from contention? the move doesn't really make sense from either POV

Clover has already given his reasoning and while I don't think it's optimal, I think it's valid and conceivable that he wanted to do it as town.
Tl;dr seems to be that he didn't think he was townread enough and so he wanted to avoid muddying the waters by being a mostly null-read in the coalition.

Why am I getting the feeling that you really want Clover to be on the table as an option, more than you actually believe Clover is scum?

[Klick]

I also think Chemist's play is pretty town so far.

[Klick]

I will join a wagon on Sleeper or Pooky to get a lynch today. I'm trying to work out which I prefer.

[Klick]

Except that's not all you're doing. Looking at the last two pages and reading your posts, the vibe I get is at best 'Clover-skeptic'. That seems to be your main agenda at the moment, and not just in 1515. It doesn't quite add up with your unvote on Clover recently either.
I guess I'm mainly wondering what you're actually trying to achieve if it's not 'lightly push Clover as a lynch option'.

[Klick]

Tl;dr seems to be that he didn't think he was townread enough and so he wanted to avoid muddying the waters by being a mostly null-read in the coalition.

Regardless of how optimal this might be, can you see this as a plausible town thought process Pooky?
What do you think of the rest of my town case on Clover?

[Klick]

Does Clover read as the type of player who makes the nonsensical play in the position he was in?
'It's possible Clover made a Hail Mary' isn't very convincing to me

[Klick]

Especially in what would be his first scum game on site
And when the play he has represented in this game could not really be called 'aggressive play' by any stretch of the imagination

[Klick]

Also trying to say that scum would just do something for the sake of not making sense/bad scum play isn't really a good argument

it makes exactly as much sense as saying "X isn't scum because X did this thing that Scum wouldn't do if Scum were X"

This is false logic because it doesn't take into account reading the room. In order to think Clover is scum, you have to assume Clover knew he would get townread for his behavior

and

decided it was the best play he could make. I don't think Clover plausibly sees the gamestate going in the direction it did - and if I specifically hadn't pushed for Clover to be townread, it would have had no effect. You're assuming Clover either placed his entire game on someone townreading him for this gambit enough to put him in the coalition, or he already had his buddy in the coalition (in which case he's not the lynch today anyway).

[Klick]

VOTE: Pooky
Your scumread on Clover feels fake.

We have less than a day. I'll be leaving my vote here unless this doesn't take off and there's a viable Sleeper wagon.

[Klick]

Vote count 1.23

with 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to make a decision. day 1 ends in (expired on 2020-07-07 13:00:00)

coalition

PookyTheMagicalBear [5]:

Deimos27, SleeperSoul, DonCorleone, PookyTheMagicalBear, Klick

Clover Ebi [5]:

Clover Ebi, DkKoba, Deimos27, Klick, DonCorleone

DkKoba [5]:

Wug, Klick, DkKoba, Clover Ebi, PookyTheMagicalBear

Deimos27 [4]:

Deimos27, Klick, Wug, SleeperSoul

Alduskkel [4]:

Alduskkel, Klick, SleeperSoul, DkKoba

Klick [4]:

Klick, SleeperSoul, Clover Ebi, DonCorleone

SleeperSoul [3]:

Deimos27, SleeperSoul, Klick

Wug [2]:

Wug, Deimos27

DonCorleone [0]:

lynch

SleeperSoul (1):

Deimos27

Wug (1):

DonCorleone

PookyTheMagicalBear (1):

Alduskkel

not voting (6):

Klick, Clover Ebi, SleeperSoul, PookyTheMagicalBear, Wug, DkKoba

flavour

mod notes

• Alduskkel V/LA for a day.
  
• Play nice.

This was the most recent VC before Clover's hurt-all

[Klick]

Not really?
If he's scum, taking himself out of contention is severely harmful to his wincon unless his partner is super safe in a coalition spot.

[Klick]

In fact, the fact that things weren't set in stone makes it less likely that he'd want to slim his team's odds of getting someone in the coalition.

[Klick]

You know sometimes people say they don't want something in order to get it right?

Yes, but that's why you make judgements about how likely someone is to use specific methods of tricking you.

If Clover had the manipulative firepower you're suggesting he has to use 'don't townread me' as a way to get townread... then why didn't he just play a game that would get townread in the first place? Occam's Razor suggests he's just town instead of scum who banked on getting townread by telling people to not townread him.

[Klick]

I could give you a sensible response to that, but it seems better to let Clover answer that himself.

[Klick]

That seems like a sensible response
With my endorsement he goes from 'a distraction' to 'viable coalition member'

PEdit: that's a bit of my vibe on Sleeper as well, though it's helped by the PoE created by the coalition
I do think I slightly prefer a Pooky vote here though.

[Klick]

Koba/Chemist is likely town. It's a read I've struggled to nail down, but Chemist's posts have been really good so far. When I voted Koba it was largely because I didn't understand their play post-coalition and was struggling to find a scumread within a bunch of townreads. But Chemist has been towny, and there is a lot of stuff in Koba's play that made me townread them in the first place.

[Klick]

Clover was in like 2-3 people's coalitions at the time they opted out - it was very much a 'maybe' in terms of whether he'd make it in. Some people had recently taken him out, but I had also just said I was likely to put him in my coalition.

[Klick]

My best guesses are Pooky/Wug and Pooky realises he's doomed in the current gamestate, or possibly Pooky/Sleeper because this would be particularly bad for them

[Klick]

I think Pooky is working from a starting point of 'Clover can't be townread' and is making his argument from that perspective.

There is a plausible reason for him to be doing that as town. But I find it more likely that he's scum who needs Clover available as a mis-execute.

[Klick]

if I'm scum who needs a mis-execute why wouldn't I just hammer koba at L-1 instead of defending them and trying to get you off them?

You know sometimes people say they don't want something in order to get it right?

C'mon, you're better than this.
Koba was under legitimate threat of being lynched before they replaced out. Scum!Pooky is thrilled to let Koba die without his support.
But then Chemist comes in and the pressure seals off on the slot. That's when you would realise that you're running out of mis-executes.

[Klick]

I mean, you should see that as a valid argument considering you used the logic yourself?

You and Clover are different people with different playstyles

[Klick]

The conditions were different as well

Momentum was swinging pretty heavily towards Koba AND the consequences of Koba failing to get lynched aren't literally your scum team losing the game

[Klick]

So you concede that the logic is valid?

So whenyou posted this:

if I'm scum who needs a mis-execute why wouldn't I just hammer koba at L-1 instead of defending him and trying to get you off him?

You already knew the answer to this and were just asking it to try and get us off your ass?

[Klick]

I'm still talking to figure out if you're scum and I'm leaning more towards that with every post

[Klick]

We have 14 hours left. Pooky is at L-1; Sleeper and Clover are at L-3.

We should lynch Pooky unless someone wants to give a really good reason to swap over to another wagon.

[Klick]

I don't think Pooky/Wug is an incompatible team. The Wug push post-coalition was silly and was never going to get off the ground, and I think scum!Pooky is aware of that.
Pooky didn't really defend Koba with much conviction.

[Klick]

Looking at it now, I'm not really seeing what makes S/S unlikely? Though I did specifically say earlier while reading that Pooky/Tux was TvS but I can't quite recall why

[Klick]

Considering we're going into night I should probably vocalise the fact that I've considerably come around to Deimos-town.

[Klick]

Lmfao.

Pooky's most recent posts are

hella

townie I really don't want to lynch that

There is a reason he's looking town as a direct response to being at L-1.

We execute Pooky today, or we execute Pooky tomorrow when you all abandon ship at the last minute and execute me or obvtown Clover.

I can go through DC's case rn if people really want but it's a distraction from killing scum

[Klick]

We literally have 1 hour 48 minutes

[Klick]

Pooky posted a lot of content and played self-sacrifice to peel people off his wagon. If he was town he'd have done it post-hammer.

[Klick]

Without any reasons, I plainly disagree. It's literally exactly what I'd expect from scum who wants to roll over and play dead to get people to not execute them.

Like it's EXACTLY what Pooky is accusing Clover of having done, only context adds up for Pooky actually doing it.

PEdit: yes what Ald said is looking likely atm

[Klick]

Pooky posted a lot of content and played self-sacrifice to peel people off his wagon. If he was town he'd have done it post-hammer.

What incentive does town have to wait till post hammer

Pooky has made it very clear that he thinks scum play like this
Which means he thinks when people play like this, it's a scumtell
Which means when he plays like this, he's scum.

Town doesn't want a no-lynch. Town would rather get lynched than no-lynch

[Klick]

Klick your progression throughout the game is incredibly suited to the prevailing winds of opinion at the time and I don’t think I’ve seen you take a single controversial stance before anyone else or defend one

Why is that

Clover

[Klick]

Your actions right now with Pooky seem specifically designed to help him worm out of today's lynch and I find that scummy as fuck
I literally don't have time to have this argument with you DC, if you're town stop dicking around and get back on scum. If you continue this argument I will be ignoring your posts for the rest of the day.

[Klick]

Without any reasons, I plainly disagree. It's literally exactly what I'd expect from scum who wants to roll over and play dead to get people to not execute them.

In that gamestate there was such an astonishingly slim chance of Pooky

not

being the lynch that I find it hard to believe he goes for such a rescue operation.

I've been saying for a bit now that Pooky-scum implies Pooky feels he needs to stay alive for his faction to win at this point

[Klick]

If I was going into this with the mindset of saving my partner, why do I leave him open to a hammer all night long?

The same reason Pooky shifted tone at L-1 - you talked about it in the scum pt

[Klick]

We don't have a 5th on Pooky at this point unless someone comes online before deadline

DC could well be town, I'm just baffled at the turn on a dime and stubborn refusal to lynch scum
I suspect if he is town he'd flip to Pooky if he had to before deadline though

[Klick]

With Pooky's twilight-before-twilight posts I do feel rather confident in Pooky-scum actually

[Klick]

Have a look at this game, this game is giving me flashbacks to that one https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=82699

Normally I don't have confidence at this level in scumreads, but it does happen

[Klick]

Tl:Dr I caught scum right when I replaced in and made it my sole goal to lynch them, and the town didn't give enough of a fuck to hammer him by deadline

[Klick]

I feel rather good about a Knightmare lynch right this second and I'd appreciate if I was followed there today.

Let's just vote Knightmare.
The things people see as towntells are shaky at best and 'but would he do this?'s that hold little water
Meanwhile, chkflip and I at least both seem rather confident.

Posts like these are very different to saying “why won’t you vote scum” and imply a different level of confidence

Different room. There wasn't really anyone specifically arguing against a Knightmare vote there, just a lot of people who didn't care.

Ive also grown as a player from that game and since.

[Klick]

I'm going to be pretty upset if we lynch Clover, they're town, and then I have to spend another week having you guys listen to different bullshit ways Pooky tries to get you to see him as town

[Klick]

If it was Klick/Clover then I've effectively talked the team into a corner where even if Pooky was executed today it would be a horrible spot

[Klick]

If Clover flips today and is town I would like a speed-execute on Pooky tomorrow pls

[Klick]

It's because Clover doesn't care enough about convincing you whether or not he's scum
Because he's not scum and isn't playing for half a team - he's playing for 1/7 of a team

[Klick]

If Clover is town, why would you be disappointed with Aldus-town

[Klick]

Lol.

[Klick]

Why do you even think Pooky is town DC? You never explained, just jumped off

[Klick]

Again, there was a ton of momentum on Koba post-coalition and defending someone that is about to flip town looks good

I don't see the motivating argument at all - I did that in my last scum game with notscience specifically to look town

[Klick]

Seriously, why not just hammer koba? All he would have needed to do was take a soft defense if him, and even if it got him lynched tomorrow for hammering too early he could just get his partner to hardbus him and he’d have a good chance of winning overall

This depends heavily on who his partner is; someone like Wug doesn't live after that

I think you hit the nail on the head with “well here’s my last ditch effort to save the town before my inevitable lynch”

[Klick]

I think you hit the nail on the head with “well here’s my last ditch effort to save the town before my inevitable lynch”

Right, only I also see this as town pretty frequently and it’s something I often do when I’m town and I can see the lynch coming and I don’t think the town will be capable of seeing I’m town without my flip

So you admit it happens as scum then, which would make it not a towntell

[Klick]

Please vote Pooky DC. I will absolutely BoP it if it's wrong.

[Klick]

You don't even seem to think Clover is scum at this point yet you refuse to lynch Pooky for questionable reasons

[Klick]

Klick, you of all people would know that mafia is probabilistic

Sure, but he's saying it's a town tell that Pooky played dead while brushing off the fact that scum do it
He hasn't said 'town are more likely to do this' or given reasons for that

[Klick]

CHEMIST WAKE UP

I know it's like 7am or some shit where you are but this is Mafia, Mafia is srs bsns

[Klick]

Clover Ebi (4): SleeperSoul, Wug, PookyTheMagicalBear, DonCorleone

This is literally the list of potential scum at this point fwiw

[Klick]

This is ridiculous. No one has a single good reason for scum reading Clover

[Klick]

The difference being that there have been arguments against the few reasons to townread Pooky, whereas I essentially got a 'nah' in response to my Clover towncase
Even Wug's reasoning was really empty and 'I'm not feeling it'

[Klick]

VOTE: Pooky
Quicklynch pls

[Klick]

And scum is helping us narrow PoE for some reason

It suggests scum are thinking ahead - Chemist and myself are obvtown when Pookyscum gets executed D2, and we need to both be dead by D3 to maximizer the other scum's odds of surviving

[Klick]

Klick, can you give us a quick Pooky case? My understanding is that from my PoV, it's a 1v1 between you two.

He pushed through the obvtown Clover vote yesterday who no one really thought was scum, while ALSO setting up for suspecting me after it went through. When he was at L-1 he posted an 'I give up, go town' post to try and get people to jump off his wagon.

[Klick]

Killing Chemist here doesn't really help me!scum. I'd have enough ammunition here to drive a Pooky execution without using a suboptimal NK to accomplish it.

[Klick]

Frankly I thought you'd obviously be dead today but thinking about it it makes sense for Pooky!scum to kill Chemist instead.

[Klick]

D&D opener reads town for not really having any game context. Scum!D&D at least reads the scum PT and gets stuff from that.

[Klick]

I think we win with Pooky->Wug->DC frankly

[Klick]

Also congrats bugspray, your slot got killed N1

[Klick]

You flip? That would assume that scum NK you (you're in the coalition).
Ignoring the fact that that's now impossible fmpov, I would have likely been executed D3 in that scenario. It's not a given, but Chemist was rather towny and a couple of people (Pooky and DC) suspect me.

[Klick]

I think I'd actually prefer to execute DC before Wug tomorrow if Pooky flips scum. I trust people to actually get Wug in a LyLo if it's him, but I could see DC talking his way out of it much more easily.

[Klick]

I mean, if Pooky is town then you are scum and I'll be trying to execute you tomorrow, yes.
But I don't think you're scum. You should go look at how hard I tried to stop Clover from getting executed and come to the conclusion that I'm town here.

[Klick]

Yeah, Sleeper was pretty towny. If Pooky is town I lose a decent amount of towncred as well. I'd also be making that play without knowing what to expect from Sleeper's replacement.

[Klick]

I'm saying that I wouldn't make that play (which I suppose you can't just take my word on that, but it's true). Pooky's the one who needs to make some sort of wacky play to survive here.

[Klick]

I'm completely fine with this day ending early. What else are you wanting to get out of today?

[Klick]

I do have a slight tinfoil of Pooky/Sleeper and the kill suits that
You should tell me that's dumb Deimos

[Klick]

Because Pooky's in the hot seat
Just go read the end of D1, most of your questions so far can be answered with context from that

[Klick]

I think I'm a more viable execute than Chemist is
Like, if Pooky DOES survive today, its probably because he pushes through an execute on me
Chemist never gets executed today

[Klick]

In his 'oh well I'm dead' post, Pooky set up to argue that I'm scum even if Clover was town

[Klick]

Nah Aldus isn't Pooky's partner. End of day yesterday is a fantastic reason.
Scum Aldus doesn't risk partner Pooky getting executed that hard yesterday.

[Klick]

And yes what Deimos said

[Klick]

Frankly Aldus is just town after yesterday IMO I felt like he was joining me as a voice of reason

[Klick]

I'm already pissed regardless of your alignment yesterday drove me insane.

[Klick]

I do feel like Pooky/Sleeper shouldn't be out of the question, but I find it a bit unlikely due to how much

urgency

it felt like Pooky had yesterday, plus just Sleeper being pretty towny

[Klick]

no

[Klick]

I'm the only person who defended him when he went to L-1 -> me flipping scum makes him look bad

[...]

Like why would I even bother defending Koba if I'm just going to shoot him at night?

So that you could subtly remind us of this

[Klick]

You were also 'gonna die today regardless' yesterday when you were at L-1, yet in both cases everything you're saying seems geared towards getting people to second-guess themselves
I'm just here to make sure that doesn't happen

[Klick]

The only thing I basically KNEW yesterday was that Clover was town but no one really gave a shit. That's literally been my whole game up to this point - I found a town and tried my hardest to ensure everyone else saw it. That's now provable since Clover had been flipped.

If you're town Pooky, tell me who Sleeper's partner is while you're still alive. I can probably fight off an execute tomorrow depending on who else is town (as I genuinely think thinking I'm scum here is a bit ridiculous at this point and am prepared to argue that if needed). The best thing you could do is find the off-coalition scum.

[Klick]

I've been wrong about literally everything so I'm not sure I'm ready to lose it for the town on the LYLO too

I'm not saying I'll advocate just sheeping everything you say come LyLo
But equally, having your thoughts on potential Sleeper partners would be very helpful later if you're town

[Klick]

as I genuinely think thinking I'm scum here is a bit ridiculous at this point

This is bullshit if pooky is town

Nah man I don't defend Clover in the way I did with the vigor I did as scum. But it's not a worthwhile argument to have before a Pooky town flip
If I need to defend myself tomorrow I will, and I hope you'll hear me out if so

[Klick]

I'm prepared to fight in that scenario. What I'm not so sure on is what should happen next.

Deimos is town. If you're town, that leaves Wug/Aldus/DC as potential Sleeper partners. I don't reeeeally think it's Aldus, but if you really did then I'd consider it. I'd be stuck between Wug and DC for a Sleeper partner.

What are your thoughts there Pooky?

PEdit: GeorgeBailey.

[Klick]

Assume 1 in, 1 out: you have {1v3|1v3} going into the night.

1. You've taken this assumption as fact, when in reality it's not the only option.
2. You're wrong; it's {1v3|1v4} going into the night, which nullifies the rest of your logic.

There are instances where Klick is individually scummy - one instance is where Klick argues that Pookyscum wanted to let DkKoba get fired by someone else, and then argues that it's logically valid... however that seems a little inconsistent with Pooky's deathtunnel which came right after that, no?

I'm not following? Do you mean that a Pooky who wants someone else to hammer Koba would then not deathtunnel Clover? I don't see why that would be the case.

Another one is Klick townreading our first post, which, c'mon, isn't townie. It felt like Klick had an agenda to fire Pooky today quickly and would have to townread us, so found a way to townread that post.

Yes it is
I also wouldn't have to townread you to execute Pooky today
I feel insulted that you think what you've described here would be my scum play

[Klick]

You're wrong; it's {1v3|1v4} going into the night, which nullifies the rest of your logic.

I read this wrong, sorry, 1v3/1v3 is correct

[Klick]

This does rely on the assumption that there's 1 off 1 on, but that's a safe enough assumption here.

You/Pooky is a viable scum pair.

The NK logic is really simple (assuming 1-on-1-off):

1. if scum NK outside the coalition N1, there are 4 execute options D2. If they survive that and kill off-coalition again, there are 3 execute options D3.
2. if scum NK inside the coalition N1, there are 3 execute options D2. If they survive that and kill off-coalition, there are 2 execute options D3.

Play 1 gives scum (3/4)*(2/3)= 50% odds of winning on D3. Play 2 gives scum (2/3)*(1/2)= 33% odds of winning on D3. (The odds of scum winning come D4 after one scum execute are always the same no matter what the play is.)

Choosing to kill in the coalition is suboptimal.

[Klick]

Also

I mildly townread Pooky's posting. I have seen Pooky deathtunnel before, I do not think that makes him scum.

This is a very reductive version of why Pooky is scum

[Klick]

It felt like Klick had an agenda to fire Pooky today quickly and would have to townread us, so found a way to townread that post.

Also I literally already had a townread on the Sleeper slot before you came in

Datisi did you create this game specifically to troll votato and then just rolled with it when I replaced in

[Klick]

1. As I said, it's a safe assumption given the interplay with the gametstate.

What does this even mean
You/Pooky is a valid scumteam and that alone invalidates the idea that there must be 1-on-1-off
Youre also making this statememt without having read most of the game

2. You're debating possibilities. My larger point was that you're reasoning for what you want to push, rather than solving.

I am solving
I have come to the conclusion that Pooky is probscum
You would know this if you would read the game

3. You would have to townread us to quick fire Pooky today, else you'd have to take it slow and figure out scum between us.

I can think Pooky is very scummy without thinking you're particularly towny

4. There's an underlying assumption that town continues firing in the coalition. As we argued, in either case scum has to win either of a {1v1} or a {1v2} after surviving D2. The only difference is the D2 survival rate on random firing (9%) which doesn't really matter for scum confident enough not to be the execute.

Town never executes off-coalition until a scum dies on-coalition. We know that there is scum on-coalition. We do not know that there is scum off-coalition.

This is not hard. On a base level from yesterday, there was a 30% chance of hitting scum on-coalition and a 12.5% chance of hitting scum off-coalition (with the possibility of there being no scum at all off-coalition). The odds of hitting scum on-coalition at a base level have only increased.

5. The mathematical optimum has to be weighed along with gamestate. The idea that this play coming from scum!you is rubbish is rubbish, and that is my claim.

The gamestate is literally the main reason why it's not a play scum!Klick would not make the play and why scum!Pooky would. Please read the game

6. Why would you be insulted that we are calling that your scum play?

You seem to think I just made up a reason to townread you on the fly; that is not how I would operate as scum

7. Sure - please explain why Pooky was town enough to be part of the coalition, but then scummy afterwards. The majority of the case seems to be the Clover deathtunnel to me.

Read it yourself.
Tl;dr: I didn't think Pooky was very towny pre-coalition but compromised on him because Koba wasn't going to join a coalition without him. He actually looked pretty towny post-coalition for a bit, and then the Clover tunnel came and was awfully convenient for his place in the game.

[Klick]

If you shoot inside it, it's 1 versus 2; if you shoot outside, it's 1 versus 3

We. Do not. Know. If there is scum. Outside the coalition.

I'll respond to the rest after you've read the game.

[Klick]

Is this head Auro?

[Klick]

Or possibly gobbledygook

[Klick]

scum on coalition: pooky > dd > klick
scum off coalition: ald > don > deimos

might change my mind about dd-klick order

How much sense does a Pooky/Aldus team make? I'd argue very little