Mini 2150 - Anime SeiyuU-Pick [SHOW'S OVER!]

[Deimos27]

VOTE: mastina

[Deimos27]

Spoiler:

[Deimos27]

Oh, and HEAL: Deimos
We win these.

[Deimos27]

Flawless manipulation.
HEAL: Battle Mage

[Deimos27]

Vote mastina w/ me.
We win these.

[Deimos27]

I have a 100% accurate completely infallible pregame scumtell on mastina.
A vote for mastina is a vote for our future.

[Deimos27]

Instead of healing me (superobvconftown) Tux heals Holden (the nulliest of nulls). Scum #2 identified.

[Deimos27]

The lack of willingness to wagon mastina is clear confirmation that the slot is scum.

[Deimos27]

You no like wagonz, Mikul?

[Deimos27]

I don't consider making the excuse particularly AI. I'm considering whether it's AI that there was no engagement with the page of game so far, apart from the excuse.

[Deimos27]

Since joining this site I've made an active effort to find value in it but I still loathe it

I mean
I don't consider solo wagoning a player like Battle Mage a particularly effective attempt at finding value

[Deimos27]

I don't consider making the excuse particularly AI. I'm considering whether it's AI that there was no engagement with the page of game so far, apart from the excuse.

What is there to engage with ?

There is chest bumping saying you two are amazing at mafia and starting a random wagon

I'm not sure how you expect me to respond to that but I've explained why I disagree with it lol

Literally any engagement. A joke, a comment, an RVS with any kind of expressed gamesolving intent.

Battle Mage does not respond in particularly AI ways to RVS pressure (not that one vote creates much pressure).

[Deimos27]

I don't consider making the excuse particularly AI. I'm considering whether it's AI that there was no engagement with the page of game so far, apart from the excuse.

he's also pointedly ignoring my breadcrumbs and in one post, he was honest.

Well I'm also ignoring your breadcrumbs, mainly cause I don't know how to comment on them in a pro-town way.

[Deimos27]

Well why do you want Mikul to comment then

[Deimos27]

hello

hurt me or heal me

You can also heal me.
And I still recommend voting mastina, though Mikul is acceptable.

[Deimos27]

Mikul, do the thing where you try to make something valuable out of RVS.

[Deimos27]

mastina r u trollin

[Deimos27]

Hey Holden you wanna tell us how you got Tux town from your little interaction test with him? Because I got the exact opposite pings. To me that seemed like a very obvious reaction test. Maybe it looked more convincing at the time of it, but it's very doubtful. The entire post after like he was really gonna die just felt forced and perhaps a bit staged.

+1
Maybe Holden has some incredible understanding of Tux's psyche but to me that reaction test was legendarily obvious and in every single world that town!Tux suspects that it's a reaction test, he should say so for transparency. The question then becomes whether Tux as a player is likely or unlikely to suspect a reaction test. Whatever the exact probability, it's gotta be greater than whatever rand for rolling scum is in this setup, making him an easy scumlean for me on this tell alone.

AUDITION VOTECOUNT 1.2

Winner receives (until end of Night 1):

(NIGHT, PASSIVE) You survive ONE Pick/Kick Out attempt.

Battle Mage

(3): Deimos27, TrueSoulEnergy

@Mod

, two heals on BM but it says three, is this correct?

[Deimos27]

She has still been developing and explaining her opinions, and I believe these are the standards we should be judging her by, instead of the status of her roleclaim.

What if this were the status of her roleclaim: fake?
Would you judge her by that status?

[Deimos27]

Lmao what I haven't even been playing much recently

[Deimos27]

UNVOTE: tuxedo
VOTE: Battle Mage
Serious vote. Broke jojoke code.

One vote is as good as the other!
VOTE: Battle Mage

Least 1 scum within Mastina and Tuxedo.

Why was that?

[Deimos27]

Leaning town on Mikul and HoldenGolden

[Deimos27]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Tux L-2
I prefer this one atm

[Deimos27]

Now I do agree with their points on the push on Mastina. I just don't see prs claiming like that and their defence over it is I only do it as town. Regardless this is a very easy person to push and I feel like regardless of Mastinas alignment it's a very easy wagon to push.

I agree with Mikul's points
Regardless this is a very easy wagon to push

Lol

[Deimos27]

I'm confused with 175 and it just seems like an attempt to join the fray of players outing their abilities.

I'm confused by this
So I will list it here along with my other scumtells without any critical examination of the potential town and scum motivations present

Also lol

[Deimos27]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: TTJT
This reading of Mikul is so uncharitable that it's probably scum motivated. The position on mastina is inconsistent: TTJT apparently understands the points on her but goes on to say her situation is "weird but wifom" and Tux is scummier because of... confidence and jokes.

[Deimos27]

Oh yes, I read Tux as scummy. In fact, I think he's a bit scummier than you.

But I think you are scumreading him for (at least some) of the wrong reasons. Same with your Mikul read. The points are silly and I can go through them one at a time but I already pointed at two that made no sense.

I'm on you rather than Tux only as a temporary measure to draw attention to the second scummiest player I see in the gamestate.

[Deimos27]

Apathy? Not even once

[Deimos27]

Starbuck, you're town, right? Breathe some life into this game with a stunning catch-up

[Deimos27]

But I think you are scumreading him for (at least some) of the wrong reasons. Same with your Mikul read. The points are silly and I can go through them one at a time but I already pointed at two that made no sense.

What are the "wrong reasons" given for Tuxedo Mask, and why do you find that to be Mafia-indicative rather than just Town approaching from a different viewpoint?

Confidence, jokes, and fluff are not scumtells without much further development about the motivations behind these behaviours and the nature of their manifestations here. One of the posts Sujimichi referenced on Tux was something I literally see people (including Tux) do all the time, which is joking about being scum:

More shockingly though it turns out I am scum

Jumping on a leading wagon for poor reasons when legitimate ones exist

and have been pointed out in-thread

is +scum for opportunism and -town for lack of resonance. As the game progresses I will see from TTJT whether these are false positives within the frame of his personality and playstyle.

[Deimos27]

How long can I expect to see all questions and no reads from your slot, Sujimichi?

[Deimos27]

Jumping on a leading wagon

He has not jumped on a leading wagon. What I refer to is the scumread.

[Deimos27]

I don't think it should be controversial that the scum framework "fit evidence to match reads" holds more explanatory power than the town framework "fit reads to match evidence" in such situations. Admittedly he has not yet acted on voting either Mikul or Tux, despite coming up with these reasons to suspect them, which is odd.

[Deimos27]

Did you prefer not to out this audition power?

[Deimos27]

Vivid pic of Captain Hook entrapping Tinkerbell there, Deimos. Are you trying to tell us something?

Are you trying to expose a crumb?

[Deimos27]

That's correct

[Deimos27]

How long can I expect to see all questions and no reads from your slot, Sujimichi?

Until such a time that I have established reads.

Very well. I hope this time comes before eod.

[Deimos27]

Mikul, since mastina has established a meta of multiple dozen games fakeclaiming mason

only

as town, on what basis have you decided that this is the game she is breaking against her scum philosophy?

[Deimos27]

Here's why we don't force mastina to resolve her claim today:

Spoiler:

If town!mastina = True, it's obviously counterproductive to resolve her claim. To confirm it as real requires another mason to out and gives scum two conftown targets for NKs when those conftowns would be more valuable later. To confirm it as fake undermines the purpose of the initial fakeclaim (I think we can reasonably presume that a town!mastina doesn't fakeclaim mason unless she thinks it's +EV, such as via the possibility of drawing an NK as an otherwise useless role). Both of these are

immediate

downsides (they impact the very next NK).

All the value of resolving the claim come from the possibility she might be scum, by sabotaging possible future scum fakeclaim potential. This is a

delayed

upside. I don't buy your argument that her readability would be substantially enhanced by getting to analyse her intent here (I don't consider that this would be a promising method, and there are myriad unrelated ways that you can still try to sort a scum!mastina here), but even that would be an upside that can easily be delayed.

In other words, if we pushed her up tomorrow, for instance, we would gain almost identical upside benefits against a scum!mastina as we would day 1,

and

we attain the bonus EV from a town!mastina claim, since an NK goes through. So the value of resolving her mason claim increases linearly with how many nights we can postpone it, though the returns are diminishing since scum value for fake confirming her also increases.

So even if it was rand whether mastina is town or scum, (the latter being much less likely just by base rate), it would be +EV not to resolve the claim today, and possibly tomorrow too (but I only need to convince you for today). As it stands, however, the claim actually creates a probabilistic town-AI presumption due to the sample size of her meta.

This means that town has a burden to identify compelling reason

independent of her claim

why she is scummy, before we can push her. As long as there is a probabilistic presumption that she is town, to force a resolution on the claim is a highly negative EV play.

This is also why I am pointedly not responding to BM's question to me as to whether I am masons with mastina, because both to confirm and to deny help scum more than they help town.

[Deimos27]

Why do you have strong feelings on not wanting to eliminate Tuxedo Mask?

+1

[Deimos27]

So the question is do I believe if she's Mason

Absolutely not and that is true whether I look at it from a town mastina or scum mastina perspective

So there is no harm in forcing pressure on her to confirm this is a lie.

Since you already don't believe her claim, you gain no added value from her confirming it as a lie. You can just play the game under that assumption anyway. But in the situation you're wrong and the claim is confirmed true, it's huge -EV compared to status quo.

[Deimos27]

I think distancing away from the Mastina claim is a good call, we now know that she does this over many games and honestly, it was pretty NAI to begin with. In my eyes it's pretty clear the inthet from Mikul was obvious and coming from a good place. Deimos are you disagreeing with that or?

Nah we are agreed.

[Deimos27]

So let's say not mastina for giggles.

Why the fuck not panzer ?

I'd rather eliminate scum than a 3p that seems harmless, especially if it's 3p that can become strong town. They are a valid default/compromise, though.

[Deimos27]

TheThirteenths post seems pretty ballsys to me on page 13. It makes me want to townread them considering the fact that they were going after a slot that seemed to be getting quite a few townreadis.

I'd be more inclined to agree if he'd put his vote where his mouth is.

[Deimos27]

I can't imagine what scum role that might be, but the possibility certainly exists. Do you have reason to believe the probability is > rand?

[Deimos27]

Ok, I didn't see that idea with negating night actions, this is plausible. The rationale for eliminating him would probably be in the reduced downside risks since we only lose 3p (and gain the 3 night abilities he would've drained) if we're wrong. Alternatively, we could rely on a night killing role to PoE him.

[Deimos27]

Panzer is a weeb ass name

Also, this is the funniest thing I've heard all day. German word is weeb.

[Deimos27]

Panzer is a weeb ass name

Also, this is the funniest thing I've heard all day. German word is weeb.

Full username: Panzerjager
Meaning: German anti-tank branch of service during WWII, consisting of root words "panzer" (armour, tank) and "jäger" (hunter)
Avatar: Not anime related
Mikul: "Panzer is a weeb ass name"

The hilarity of this comment is genuinely immeasurable. Panzer needs it on his sig.

[Deimos27]

I don't mean any offense — this legitimately brightened my day significantly

[Deimos27]

[Deimos27]

So she is lying?

[Deimos27]

268

[Deimos27]

Link a game of her claiming mason as scum and I'll gladly vote her here, then.

[Deimos27]

Claiming mason could well still be town-AI for her but to lie about doing it only as town is just objectively scummy

[Deimos27]

I'm not looking through all of her games to find the times she was a fake claiming mason as scum, but this is something that comes in a majority of her games and someone always mentions she has fakeclaimed as scum and she always denies it, then it carries on as a distraction that dominates discussion while carrying on until she gets voted out and if she was town it's basically gg and if she was scum then it's just annoying. I'd honestly rather skip to the part of the song where we vote her out and just move on, misfire or not.

What's off-putting is that you claim knowledge that she fakeclaims mason as scum, but apparently have no firsthand experience of this or recollection of where you could access evidence of such (or else you wouldn't need to scrub through her games for it). I don't scumread mastina's play here so if you want my vote the burden of proof is on you mate.

[Deimos27]

it's Shiro. read her ISO.

VOTE: Shiro

Hmmm. Contentless IIoA ISO, awkward emotion in 401.
VOTE: Shiro
I'll acquiesce.

[Deimos27]

Mastina sees what I saw.

[Deimos27]

We can also vote TTJT

[Deimos27]

V/LA through Wednesday

Apologies for becoming what I swore to destroy, but holiday is holiday and I ain't got no time for mafia.

[Deimos27]

UNVOTE:

[Deimos27]

Wasn't expecting to be prodded during V/LA. Have skimmed through to page 24 now, will finish catch up tomorrow. I think Tipsy's take on catboi's read of me in 552 is excellent. It's a silly assessment to make from town!catboi pov and they should've been aware enough of that fact to comment on it in their initial post, outlining what my scum motivation is to explicitly sr him but vote TTJT.

Lol at the "overexplaining" take. Why should I wait for someone to ask me why I'm not voting my strongest scumread, when I can be transparent from the outset?

[Deimos27]

Sometimes you want to keep lanes of attack open. I wouldn't have batted an eye at it if not for his explanation, which felt like an overjustification.

I can keep lanes of attack open by scumreading TTJT, I don't need to solo wagon him. Catboi's slot was a large wagon at the time, why would scum!me dodge it when I've already done the work in-thread to justify a hop onto it.

[Deimos27]

I resonate more with mastina than BM from what I saw of that 1v1, but I don't know that there's anything conclusive to say BM was arguing in bad faith. I see he's leading wagon rn so I will prioritise that slot to evaluate next.

[Deimos27]

if ur executed do the audition prizes go away?

yes obviously

This is hardly obvious. Usually game mechanics that arise from a particular town pr wouldn't be codified in the ruleset, no?

5. IMPORTANT! THE AUDITION: During the first 72 hours of the first four days, there is a secondary vote called the audition. Players may vote in thread using HEAL: playername to vote a player for the day's audition. At the end of the timer, the player with the highest votes (plurality) wins the audition. In case of a tie, one of the tied players is selected at random as a winner.

The Audition winner receives a bonus/penalty which will be announced at the start of each day,

AND activates their Audition Bonus listed in their role PM (Everyone has one, if it requires decision, must be done through PM)

[Deimos27]

I'm no longer scumleaning TTJT. I think their post about being nervous and wanting to prove themselves is a framing that provides sufficient explanation for their play from noobtown pov.

[Deimos27]

I think I prefer catboi elim to BM elim

[Deimos27]

ANIME SEIYUU-PICK EPISODE 1

VOTECOUNT 1.7

Battle Mage

(5,

2-TO-GO

): Starbuck, Panther and Fox, Battle Mage, Shiro,

mastina(L)

catboi

(2): Donkey Kong, Panzerjager

Panzerjager

(1): Mikul

Not voting (5)

: TheThirteenthJT, Titus, Deimos27, catboi, Tipsy

Although it's interesting that BM is being voted by so many of my tr's (I like Starbuck, Panther&Fox, mastina here) while catboi has two slots that are more question marks (DK, Panzer). Makes me a bit more hesitant.

[Deimos27]

Well, I'm curious to see how the gamestate reacts to this distribution
VOTE: catboi

[Deimos27]

On the other hand, I heard about that masked man, you know, the one wearing that exquisite Tuxedo, and it's pretty damn clear to me that he was playing dumb when he was being interrogated by the old sheriff.

This continues to be the clearest scumtell I've seen so far from anyone this game

[Deimos27]

I don't see why a mod would announce that mastina is lovers in the way that they did WITH mastina not having the loved modifier active.

Well..rhey di have it active. I dont think we've tested that part of mastina's claim to my dismay, but it seems too late for that.

I guess we could wagon mastina to L-2 just to see if she stops being reported as Loved.

[Deimos27]

I am having a lot of trouble keeping up with which players are in which slots. This is nuts.