Smuggler's Port [Game Over]
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Oh I'm a dumdum, this didn't even occur to me.In post 45, GuiltyLion wrote:So in my mind, I'm thinking about whether the PA should claim and at what point.
I might be misremembering but is there a reason the PA should not just claim and direct the inspections?Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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SpicyIn post 74, Hel wrote:Also, someone should really vote for the Tomboy Daughter already to give her some cover.Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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Ha. My first thought when you said PA claimed was that it was NK15 and he claimed without asking anyone if it was a good idea.In post 412, Not Known 15 wrote:I am the Port Authority.Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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Not per se but he does often have strong opinions on mechanics and usually he doesn't care what other people think.Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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I love this metaphor.In post 549, Titus wrote:
It's where scum buddy a town so effectively they work for the scumteam. It word comes from agency capture in the law.In post 546, Datisi wrote:what is agency capturing?
Someone who is agency captured is a townbeard.Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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Wait I just read the rest of NK15's claim post. He doesn't want to out the TD, so he's going to risk outing the TD. Brilliant.Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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It's also kinda funny that I was (I assume) included in that, given that I had not posted since the game started.Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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I'm sure I read it. In the matter of whether I can remember it and whether I can remember that you proposed it, I'm afraid I am 0 for 2.In post 695, Menalque wrote:Did you read my plan yet? Thoughts?
Give me one moment.Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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Okay I reread your plan in 420 (nice, btw). I think that a world where the tomboy daughter gets a majority vote, official or unofficial, is not a world we're winning in anyway. Letting NK15 veto executions might work but it probably won't? If we did, he'd have to come up with the right percentage of the time to randomly veto a non-daughter execution (probably 1/15).
Your plan doesn't fix the main problem, which is the chance of the daughter being caught with tea (or equivalently, the chance that NK has to reject an inspection because the daughter is on it). That chance should be zero. Not sure whether inspecting one or two people is best, but either way NK should have full control over who is inspected. Inspecting someone who is likely tomorrow's execution isn't really bad because like I said if that person is the daughter, we were in hot water anyway.Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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The only way to avoid executing the tomboy daughter without giving any information away is for NK to randomize something to execute. The more randomness involved, the less information we give away. So if we offer up two and NK randomly picks one, that's twice as good as if we just execute one and pray.In post 736, Menalque wrote:is NK choosing between the two scummiest people on each day the best way to avoid executing the tomboy daughter without giving info on their identity?
... Except that the one who survived is not going to disappear from people's radars, and the above effect becomes weaker the more times someone survives being on the stand. The net effect is it either screws up our scumhunting by forcing us to treat the scummiest living player as conftown, or it makes us jump through a lot of hoops for a benefit that's not nearly as great as it seems.Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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Hello, nice to meet you! I am sorry that you dislike that.In post 746, maxwell wrote:S_S's intro is meh. I really really really dislike that he put all his effort into talking about mechanics with no commentary on anyone in the game when there's plenty of material to go off.
I caught up on my phone while on a car ride home from a vacation (don't freak out, I wasn't driving). I harbor no illusion about my ability to formulate, remember, and coherently express reads in such conditions (my ability to do so while catching up is dubious in the best of situations).
On the other hand, I can, and will, give detailed mechanical discussion without having a great sense of the game's history. In fact, if anything, this will serve as a jumping off point for engagement going forward. I can't say I'm surprised that you don't like it-- there's usually SOMEONE-- but I can assure you it is both in good faith and for the best.Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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I hold a pretty simplistic view of consensus reads for mechanical purposes, and it assumes that this doesn't happen.In post 750, Menalque wrote:Okay, but that person isn’t necessarily always going to still be scummy right? Like, let’s say there are duelling wagons, and we’re fairly sure there’s a scum in there but that it’s unlikely both are scum
In that case, if we flipped the scum, the second player would likely be off the concern list the second day while we hunted for partners
Sure it could happen, but I think it's rare. Bussing is a thing. I don't think it's a significant enough factor to affect my calculation, especially given how subjective it is.Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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I think the conversation is almost definitionally not aimless. It has a clear aim which is to answer a set of questions about optimal mechanical play; this is probably clearer than a lot of other discussions this game in terms of what the point actually is.In post 775, maxwell wrote:All right but I'm running out of patience for the aimless durdling most people produce when commenting on the setup.
If you personally don't understand or care for it, that's fine. But that is not the same as it being objectively irrelevant.Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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what, umIn post 855, Iconeum wrote:i'm absolutely dead serious when i say i'm baffled that *literally anyone* is taking it seriously
what exactly makes you think that NK15 does that as a joke?Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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This is all very weird. Hel's claim WAS obviously a joke, because it was satirizing the way that NK15 wanted to control the game (ironic, since his request for control didn't cover the one thing that he NEEDS to control).Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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You may not have meant to, but you did say he'd do it as a joke. To take something seriously means to believe that it is serious-- NOT to believe that it was true. We can accept that there's a possibility NK's claim was fake, while still recognizing that it was a real claim and not a shitpost. And that is what you appear to have an issue with-- us saying that it isn't a shitpost and that he really meant to make people think he's the PA.
(And FYI, it surprises me that you can't see that Hel's claim is clearly a shitpost. Is my explanation of why sufficient or would you like me to go more in detail?)
What exactly is your stance?Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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Sure, we can talk about this.In post 860, Iconeum wrote:i said i wanna talk about why someone would lie about it in the first place (if he doesn't turn IC on D2)
The answer is, they wouldn't! There is no conceivable benefit to lying about this, unless you are scum and you are so convinced that you will be executed on day 1 that you will do this to avoid it. So assuming that NK does not feel that way (and I would like to believe he gives himself more credit than that), he would not lie about this.Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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Not believing the claim and not taking it seriously are two very different things.In post 865, Iconeum wrote:But I don't see the problem you have with me not believing that claim from NK
It sounds like you are taking it seriously, but not believing it. And you're having trouble understanding why people are believing it?
Even though there's every reason for the real PA to claim there, and I expect NK to know this, and there's every reason for the real PA to counterclaim if it's fake, and nobody has, and there's no good reason for any player, including the tomboy daughter, to fakeclaim it, and I expect NK to know this, and the claim can be confirmed tomorrow anyway, so there is little damage in assuming it is true.
Is that enough of an explanation for you?Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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I don't know, honestly. You should have just come out and said it; there was no downside to doing so.In post 872, Iconeum wrote:why the hell do you think i'm fighting for that claim here???Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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That's fair. I'm glad that I was able to get the point across to you that counterclaiming was right.In post 876, Iconeum wrote:i am *not good* with mechanics and was fishing to see what i would need to do hereShame on a martyr claiming friends
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"A bit" being "the duration of Day 1", right?In post 898, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Keeping my vote here for a bit.Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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First of all, the question was more specific than "should we follow the clear." There are a lot of different options-- for both the execution and the inspection, we could ignore the clear completely, or let the clear dictate exactly what to do, or come up with several possible options and have the clear make a decision between them, or come up with several possible options and have the clear choose randomly between them.In post 884, maxwell wrote:Okay, now you've set me off, so let's do this. Literally your only conclusions in 724 and 745 were "buhh maybe we should follow the clear?" Which, in a general sense is unfortunately correct but hardly some startling insight and not worthy of your smarm. The blind deference to the clear also encourages passivity from town in talking about who should be inspected, which a distressingly small number of people have actually weighed in on. Even if people disagree with me I think they really should be talking about who they want to see checked. Also I can't see limiting the inspection checks to 1-2 players straight off the bat as anything but objectively pro-scum, in a game with an extremely limited number of executions it's necessary to find a way to narrow the pool and everyone fretting and whining about exposing the TD is forgetting our first goal here is to be catching scum, removing a handful of players as suspects isn't a big dealbecause that's going to happen anyway based on what the PA decides. I'm not really worried if the scum have a 1 in 5 or 1 in 6 guess at endgame. As it is checking 1 person means we'd get 5 eliminations and 4 cop checks to find 2 scum out of 3 in a pool of 15, which...actually, if I'm doing the math right, those are fairly good odds. I might might talk myself into this but I still thing having a larger check on day 1 at least accelerates the game at a fairly small added risk.
I do strongly believe that the PA should be deciding who gets inspected. This is because having the daughter inspected is game-destroying, and we have the capacity to inspect more than one person at a time, so the odds of the daughter getting inspected randomly are greater than the odds of the daughter getting executed randomly.
As for the PA deciding who gets executed, well, in a perfect world we could just have Icon decide the execution as well, but this has two problems. One, that we are ignoring all of the collective scumhunting capacity of the rest of the town, and two, that there will be nothing for anyone else to talk about and thus the game will likely stagnate.
You are probably right that we can be a little more aggressive in the inspections in the early days, but going above 3 doesn't make sense, because if we find one scum in a group of 4, we don't even have time to kill them all. Like, you said that a larger group helps accelerate the game, but I don't really see what finding tea in a group of, say, 5 does to accelerate the game. It's really easy for searching for the scum in that group to throw us off-track really quickly, but we kind of are forced to do it or otherwise we just wasted that information. It also gives scum plenty of time to prepare the gamestate for after the scum in that group has been found, if they even are.
I think a group of 3 would be reasonable today. The thing is, even if we clear 2 people every day, that's still a ton of information. (Probably more information than we even need, and therefore more information than we should give away.) So that's why I think 1-2; that gives us about 6-8 clears over the course of the game which should be plenty, and helps us narrow it down a lot if we do find tea.Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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Let's see a VC before we get ahead of ourselves.
I think the best way forward here is for Icon to pick a group of 2-3 to inspect. To minimize info leak, they could maybe do it randomly, or semi-randomly (exclude an unstated pool of townreads, and randomize from among the rest), but I'm okay with either. (Of course, don't offer justification for any player's inclusion/exclusion.)Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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That's true, we can re-check. I'd probably be okay with 4 if people thought that was better.In post 909, maxwell wrote:I think even with a group of 4 though, it shouldn't be TOO hard to scumhunt in that group & it's not like we can't potentially re-check people in a group to help winnow it down (especially as they're basically a "safe" check at that point anyway).Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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In post 960, Moment wrote:"you should stop focusing on this townie who has done something incredibly outrageous"Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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To spew anyone who clearly believed him as not the daughter.In post 963, Hel wrote:What do you think about what I said, Azelf? Why do you think scum!NK15 makes that play?Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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The point you're arguing is not something anyone would dispute. Obviously, if we knew NK was town, we would not be wasting time getting distracted by him. The reason he is getting attention is not because he is high-profile but because he is scummy, and so you should be explaining your reasoning for why he is not scummy, which you've mostly skipped over, instead of pushing people to focus on the quieter players when they still scumread NK.In post 965, Moment wrote:Oh? Is there something you'd like to say? Yes, I think NK15 is town, if that wasn't clear.Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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Yes. Fortunately, we can go more specific than "NK did a weird thing and therefore is more likely town"; we can look at the actual thing and determine whether there's town or scum motivation.In post 980, Moment wrote:Not really. I think you misunderstand me. My point is not to argue that town specifically doing outrageous things should not be lynched for it, which is obvious. My point is that things of this nature come from town more often than not, and time and time again towns hyperfocus on them to their own detriment.
And this one happens to have clear scum motivation, and dubious town motivation.Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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Sure. And the best way to help them see it is to kill them every time they do it and then blame them for the lossIn post 985, Moment wrote:Soemtimes, people are unable to see the pattern of mistakes that they consistently make, game after game.Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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This is basically contingent on him being someone who's played for almost three years and made two thousand posts and yet cannot recognize an obvious joke, complete with a funny gif and a joke reply.In post 990, Moment wrote:That being said, it really is a question of mindset – does NK15 truly believe that what he did helps town? That it was a good idea? I think the answer is yes.
Not only that, but you'd have to believe that he studied the joke claim enough to determine it was likely true, which no doubt would also entail looking at the context and the reactions.
And yet, despite all this planning-- and the thing was meticulously planned, since he had a whole spiel prepared-- he never thought to crumb that his claim was fake, in case he was counterclaimed.
Alternatively, you could just believe that he's taking an ill-advised dive for his teammates, probably against their wishes, to help rule out possible daughters. Since the game lasts a fixed number of days, he might do this if he thought he'd be executed at any point, and thought it would benefit his team.Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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Man, if only middle grounds between extremes existed.In post 1042, notscience wrote:Oh boy I do so love a rousing game of everyone follow one person and have no individual thoughts whatsoever
It’s why I play mafia over Simon saysShame on a martyr claiming friends
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I guess that's fair, but it's unreasonable to make fun of all IC-directed actions just because NK is suggesting that the IC direct everything.In post 1046, notscience wrote:I’d love a middle ground however I’m busy pointing out what scum-nk is trying to get everyone to do because if I don’t we’re going to let him live to be a question mark down the road instead of a flipped scum today!
The middle ground I have in mind is where we can execute whoever, but Ico determines unilaterally who will be inspected.
Alternatively, I don't hate the plan of us choosing two potential people to execute and having Ico randomize one to kill, but I think that's probably more trouble than it's worth.Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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You should make no comment on whether this was an honest suggestion or a WIFOM attempt, and you should unilaterally pick who will be investigated. It can be arbitrary; it's actually even better if it's random (you can exclude people you townread if you so desire, just do not name the people being excluded). It should be 3-4 people, though this is up for debate and you should decide the number before you choose. It should obviously not include the daughter. Other than that, everything you say, including this, gives away information about who the daughter might be.In post 1073, Iconeum wrote:if you make it 4 i'd put datisi/maki/SS/ + either NK (if we don't exectue him - and with Tea found he's probably first to go anyway) or maybe someone like Moment/notscience in it if we execute NK
I'm sorry; I know it's hard to not be able to discuss your reads, but you have to do it. Ask FG for a confessional PT if you want to talk about reads.Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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Link?In post 1102, Moment wrote:I was in the same situation as NK15 once upon a time, and I got out of it only through a grueling few days of constant argumentation and pushing a wagon on scum over myself.Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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Say what? Inspection is the only advantage we have, otherwise the game is the scumsided hellscape that Moment described. Most games have town executions because no town has perfect read accuracy, especially on D1 when we have no information from the mechanics yet (aside from Icon coming out).In post 1104, Radical Rat wrote:Misclowns are much more dangerous than a sub-optimal inspection in this set upShame on a martyr claiming friends
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Of course it's not! I would never fail to share reads by ACCIDENTIn post 1108, Not Known 15 wrote:And that is something town simply doesn`t forget.Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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It had better be, otherwise this setup is so scumsided it isn't worth playing.In post 1109, Menalque wrote:I have a question about the mechanics, namely: is it actually net beneficial to have investigations or not?
And I think it is. The assumption is that scumhunting will be more effective than daughter hunting.Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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Scum do not benefit more than us.
Right now, assuming random executions and random guessing, we have a 21% chance of executing two scum in five tries, and scum have an 8% chance of guessing the daughter. That gives us an EV of 20%.
If we clear 5 townies, we would then have a 42% chance of executing two scum in five tries, while scum would have a 13% chance of guessing the daughter. That gives us an EV of 37%.
(I could calculate the numbers for other sizes but the point is the same.)Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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Do these exist? I think that if scum NK15 has left very few associative tells.In post 1171, username wrote:a boatload of tells linking them to they partnerShame on a martyr claiming friends
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- Joined: November 17, 2015
- Pronoun: He
- Location: Rochester, New York
really really bad takeIn post 1269, Alisae wrote:you only needed to counterclaim if you were 100% on NK15 being scum.Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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- Location: Rochester, New York
I think it stopped working when I stopped trying to read you lol.In post 1373, GuiltyLion wrote:I used to have a surefire tell on S_S where if he scumread me he was town, but that stopped working as of late when he townread me as scumShame on a martyr claiming friends
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- Location: Rochester, New York
I mean there is absolutely zero reason not toIn post 1405, GuiltyLion wrote:am I missing something? I don't see why confirming himself there mattersShame on a martyr claiming friends
From either perspective of &- Something_Smart
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- Posts: 22616
- Joined: November 17, 2015
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- Location: Rochester, New York
NoIn post 1414, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Last day's lynch was ass. Can we do better today?Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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- Posts: 22616
- Joined: November 17, 2015
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- Location: Rochester, New York
Inb4 this is a PA softIn post 1415, Radical Rat wrote:Okay, absolutely bonkers idea here, buuuut
Iconeum/NK15/notscience scumteam.Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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- Location: Rochester, New York
I mean if NK is town. It's not exactly GL's logic just I don't see why scum-Moment would not defend town-NK like that.Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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- Posts: 22616
- Joined: November 17, 2015
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- Location: Rochester, New York
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