Smuggler's Port [Game Over]

[Umlaut]

First

VOTE: Titus

[Umlaut]

What's the best way to handle shipments? Should we spread out more or less evenly across them? Should we order the scummiest person to ship copper all on their own?

I mostly play normal games (and open games that might as well be normal) so if there's theory around this kind of mechanic I'm not familiar with it.

[Umlaut]

[Umlaut]

I'm pretty sure we're still allowed to say vote...

[Umlaut]

@mod

is it possible to have the shipping counts listed separately from the votes, so that it's easier to see how many people are shipping each item?

[Umlaut]

Inspect: Wheat

Fewest shippers = best inspection.

[Umlaut]

Also setup spec is a good way for scum to avoid scum hunting this has been my ted talk

Conversely, criticizing setup spec is low-hanging fruit and not really a reliable way to find scum.

[Umlaut]

Saw someone say username's no-execute suggestion more likely comes from town even if it's wrong, and I agree with that.

Kind of forgot everything else I read

Why did I join a large

[Umlaut]

Tomboy Daughter Reads

Maki Harukawa

- Classic Donnie is at it again. She's overcompensating here and trying to say she has nothing to fear if scum want to check her meta.

username

- He knows about the ToDa wincon but not this one? For most it'd be the other way around. Very daughterly.

Titus

- Look through her ISO. She hasn't even mentioned the Daughter once. She's terrified of talking about her because she

is

her.

-----------------

maxwell

- He agreed with my early strat of putting people we think are town on the checks to get clears. That's a terrible strat and outs Tommy, so he's never Tomboy here.

Hel

- She just seems so oblivious and lost, and she even said she wasn't ToDa. I don't think she'd lie if she was actually the Daughter.

why would you post this

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Not Known 15

People without avatars are scum

[Umlaut]

Yuck.

^

[Umlaut]

I suppose I should've been a bit more wordy. In my experience, RVS votes past the point where serious discussion has already began are a fairly reliable indicator of scum.

VOTE: Not Known 15

People without avatars are scum

His other posts do him no favors, but I imagine I'll elaborate more on that later on.

Kind of think I should acknowledge here that my vote isn't 100% random (though not really about the avatar and not because I have any sort of significant scumread on NK15; I don't have any sort of significant scumread on anyone yet)

[Umlaut]

Kind of like Menalque for town but can't really explain it

Kind of like GuiltyLion for town too

I'm definitely not going to actually read this game so my goal is to just get random town-pings which I then take as revealed truths and vote whoever is left.

[Umlaut]

Moment is, like.... the sort of player I would get town-pings from whether they were town or not (thinking of 151 in particular).

[Umlaut]

What anime is your avatar from, Umlaut? I might give it a watch.

[Umlaut]

Hel, tell me you're an alt and I've played with you before

(if you're not, just lie to me)

[Umlaut]

Execute Username

Overly serious replies to joke posts. Scum usually cannot detect humor. Ergo likely scum.

I will always and forever, regardless of alignment or even in MD, have nothing but contempt from the very bowels of the most ragefilled hell for "shitposting meta" in games

And I say that as someone who spent the last thirteen years playing a character

But you know, I'm trying to not pull my posts from that colostomy bag ridden, ragefilled hell, and that's why this entity exists in this vessel.

This is more of a redirect than a response; there is a difference between contemning shitposts and taking them seriously, or scumreading them. You are describing yourself as doing the first, but seem to be doing at least the second and possibly the third.

[Umlaut]

Obviously, old friend.

Ahhh. Message received.

[Umlaut]

I did have other things to contribute, but shit happened IRL and I forgot. I'll probably have to read the game again later tbh.

WOW ok

I honestly don't understand what problem you have with this?

[Umlaut]

Unvoting doesn't actually answer the question of what problem you have with it

[Umlaut]

I'm not trying to be perceived as town, I'm trying to give thoughts on how we should try to play the game. It's a unique setup with weird mechanics, it feels disingenuous to try to compare that to how I may have opened with you in traditional mafia formats. I can point to plenty of times I've played weird mechanics games where I've opened or spent time on mechanics talk. I also find it misreppy of you in general to assume that's me trying to make some kind of LAMIST play instead of just setup talk.

Fwiw, can confirm that I played a weird mechanics game with the Lion where he spent a good amount of time engaging in setup spec (really we all did in that game).

[Umlaut]

[Umlaut]

Can't take me yourself? Some tomboy daughter you are.

[Umlaut]

Okay so this is a fakegod setup which means there's slim to no chance of finding a breaking strategy


I'm usually the first to object to denying tribute to the blood gods on day one but what if we no-execute and send out shipments / shipment check And work off that on day 2?

Reduces our risk of outting / killing the tomboy on day one. There's no night kill, and then we have a jumping off point tomorrow.

If at end of Day 5, there are at least 2 Smugglers alive, then Smugglers win.

Disregard my last post, I'm illiterate

This actually feels kind of weird now that I’m thinking about it.
The actual first thought that came to my head was that he’s maybe baiting reactions.
I’m not sure who this is or if they would do this, but I definitely should NOT be going “townslip hur dur must be town”

It still looks pretty townslippy to me. But I confess I didn't fully understand the setup when the game started (which is kind of unusual for me but I've been getting lazier about that) and I didn't recall that either when I was trying to evaluate the plan.

[Umlaut]

For some reason I believe notscience genuinely didn't know who username was and I think he's probably town here.

[Umlaut]

(I say "for some reason" because, like, I figured it out eventually and I've never even played with kuribo before, just seen him around the site)

[Umlaut]

In that sentence I'm talking about notscience. Though I also still buy that the no-execute idea there is more likely to come from town

[Umlaut]

Also I may need to switch to an actual-photo avatar to offset Menalque's new animu one

[Umlaut]

Why does notscience not knowing who username was make notscience more towny rather than less towny?

It's not that

the fact of not knowing that

is a town tell, it's that lying about not knowing it would be a hard scum tell and I'm saying I don't think he did that

I guess that doesn't actually make him town, so make that the strictly logical 'and' in my post: I think he's telling the truth

and

independently of that I get the sense he's town, though I can't point to anything strongly justifying that.

[Umlaut]

I don’t really see anything that jumps as town to me in the ISO, but I think the way he tried to pressure username only to back off when he realised who it was/that it wasn’t gonna go as anticipated is scummy

This is much better reasoned than my own line of thinking (which is roughly "I read his posts and had an inexplicable mildly towny sensation") and I'll have to reconsider.

[Umlaut]

Well looks like some things happened.

UNVOTE: NK15

Catching up in a bit.

[Umlaut]

I really hate that claim (that big bold "

Enough

" is really lame) and how NK15 has basically excused himself from playing the game, but I may as well provisionally accept it since it gets confirmed tomorrow anyway.

Scattered thoughts:

• I think we all agree Menalque is town.
  
• I've decided Radical Rat is town as well; his gamesolving attempts seem to come from a town place (though also seem a bit like cat-herding; his plan in 460 requires close to unanimous agreement to be workable)
  
• I agree with the arguments that username tone-slipping so quickly is probably a towntell.
  
• notscience' vocal suspicion of the NK claim is weird and pings me
  
• I kind of agree with 493 but given the cat is out of the bag we have to make the best of it.
  
• I think there's a high probability there is at least one smuggler in those who haven't posted since NK15 outed. (Which is six players so that's not a hugely impressive deduction I guess)

VOTE: notscience

[Umlaut]

I have to think about it more. I'm worried that innoing half the players reduces cover for the TD too much; for example we could end up with a pool of 8 confirmed innos and then 7 players of whom three are smugglers and one is the TD. Given that this is the pool we're executing from this makes it very easy for them to narrow that down.

[Umlaut]

I have to think about it more. I'm worried that innoing half the players reduces cover for the TD too much; for example we could end up with a pool of 8 confirmed innos and then 7 players of whom three are smugglers and one is the TD. Given that this is the pool we're executing from this makes it very easy for them to narrow that down.

this was in response to 528

[Umlaut]

Actually I guess that's an edge case though, it's

prima facie

unlikely all the smugglers and the TD end up shipping the same thing.

[Umlaut]

If we do it randomly, though, then scum are presumed equally distributed across the two shipments and we expect that both shipments will probably have tea on them. So finding tea doesn't tell us anything we don't already expect, and not finding it is potentially disastrous for the reasons I outlined.

I need to think more.

[Umlaut]

Umlaut's posting is alo very lousy overall, boring waffling on the inspection check accomplishes nothing, and he's really excessively fluffy.

Gonna want you to substantiate that "excessively fluffy" read, pal.

IF NOTSCIENCE KNEW- If notscience knew I was kuribo, and I strongly feel he did, he intentionally (cited in C) accused me of being angry (cited A) and "fake rage" (cited B) when I was neither. He knowingly (cited 4) used a well-proven means of derailing my game (cited 2b) to drag the thread into unreadable chaos (cited 2a) and then backed off when I called him out.

IF NOTSCIENCE DIDN'T KNOW- If notscience didn't know, he STILL isn't town. He basically chose what he thought would be an easy lynch to try and bait (cited C), into raging in the thread even though the slot was not raging. (cited A). When he found out who I was (cited D), he realized he wasn't going to get me lynched (cited 3).

I think notscience's own claim is that when he found out who you were that made the raging NAI, because it's something that kuribo would do in general. What makes you think that's an implausible read?

(I will say for the record that 264 and 275 both looked angry to me at the time I read them. You may think there was no anger to be read into them because you know how you actually felt when you wrote them, but most people are going to read something like "contempt from the very bowels of the most ragefilled hell" and infer that you're filled with rage.)

[Umlaut]

i think this situation with the PA claiming early reminds me of a normal where two town neighbors fakeclaimed masons - while on paper it sounded good (drawing in the nk, which they did do), in practice it created enough confusion/"blockage" (especially given there was an actual mason pair...) it ended up being anti-town in the long run

I think I recall a normal like that myself!

How does this remind you of that, though (assuming you're talking about Menalque's 'claim' here)? Did you think he intended to be taken seriously, and did you think he expected you to go along with it?

[Umlaut]

Removing those posts you regard as useless (even though I don't agree on all of them) leaves me with 25 posts which puts me in the 50th percentile of posters, and that's counting everyone else's fluff while omitting mine. This is a completely bullshit reason for a scumread.

[Umlaut]

I disagree that 319, 321, 327 are fluff, for the record; I was hoping to get a better read on Alisae from the answer to 319, and give others a better read on GuiltyLion with 327.

[Umlaut]

@umlaut, why are you defending notty while on his wagon?

Because I'm interested in the possibility that I'm wrong? On reflection I think "because you're angry" is kind of a lame reason to scumread someone in the first place so I guess it doesn't matter that much but it's still a consideration.

My scumread of notscience is based on a combination of that read progression and my dislike of his claiming to disbelieve the PA claim and then, on questioning, saying he's not planning to do anything with that; if he actually believes it then he should think it's important enough to argue, and if he doesn't he shouldn't be shading him.

[Umlaut]

I don't know, I post things all the time as scum without a specific intent beyond producing content and being townread. I could make up a story where notscience is trying to accomplish something in particular but I don't think I need to do that to say this isn't a town play from him.

What even is your read on notscience? It's the only significant wagon in the game right now and you haven't weighed in on it.

[Umlaut]

Tentative scumteam guess: notscience/Hel/Moment.

I like those spicy reads.
In fact i don’t really like this slot. I think they’re trying to fake a "lolmeme" playstyle.

Vote Execute Hel

If Hel is who I believe she is (maybe someone can confirm this for me), lolmeme is NAI for her. That said I'm not feeling great about the slot either and it's hard to really put my finger on what's different about it. Can you try and say what exactly you find fake about the playstyle in this case?

@Hel

It would be helpful to get a readlist from you.

@GuiltyLion

Where did you go?

[Umlaut]

How does this remind you of that, though (assuming you're talking about Menalque's 'claim' here)? Did you think he intended to be taken seriously, and did you think he expected you to go along with it?

wrong assumption, i'm talking about nk15's claim. sounds good on paper, we can't accidentally run up the PA or execute the TD. at the time of writing that, i think i was reading titus's post that said the claim will get in the way of natural wagon formation/executions (or something along those lines), and i think it holds true somewhat even with the New And Improved plan.

Ah, I assumed you meant Menalque because that's the one that (1) happened at the very start of the game and (2) is definitely fake. I see what you mean about it getting in the way of letting people play the game normally.

Taking out all the fluff

So you admit to fluffposting?

This is ugly.
Everyone fluffposts, there's no reason not to admit to it, and there's nothing suspicious about admitting to it especially when it's as obvious as it is in Hel's case.

I feel like this interaction is non-partnery, said Mena, preparing himself for the inevitable post-game embarrassment

Agreed (assuming you mean the Norwegian-Hel interaction)

Frankly, I am concerned and this argument is garbage.

First, it's lamisty. Second, it ignores the fact scum may spam to hide things they don't want seen.

Really dislike this post. There is nothing LAMIST about that argument as far as I can see, and if you think Hel is trying to bury something she said under a mountain of fluff then you should find the thing instead of just suggesting that it might be there.

Also, why are you even voting notscience? All you said was "decent place to start"

VOTE: Titus

[Umlaut]

I confess to not having done much scumhunting, I've been pretty demotivated across the board.

This is mostly a prodge and a plan to try and read critically and get some ideas tomorrow. Still stand by the Titus vote but haven't read.

[Umlaut]

Uh yeah

VOTE: Not Known 15

Have to admit notscience's spicy take appears to have been dead-on.

[Umlaut]

What's the advantage to scum for getting shipmaster to claim? I can actually kinda believe NOt Known would take 7 seriously, and try and provide "cover".

But if he was doing that, why try and seize complete control? Not Known, don't you think shipmaster!Menalque would counterclaim you after you do something like that which is very beneficial to scum?

UNVOTE:

If NK15 actually believed Menalque's claim was likely to be a genuine slip-up, they would know Menalque couldn't actually hard-cc them because that outs the TD as well. From that perspective grabbing control like that reads as massively scummy.

[Umlaut]

In fact seeing how Menalque responded to that could be used by scum as a way to gauge whether Menalque's claim might have been serious (either a rules misunderstanding or some galaxy brain play). Menalque's immediate response to the NK15 claim doesn't really say actual-PA-struggling-to-find-the-right-reaction to me; I can't really explain this so you can just reread for yourself and see if you agree. In the alternate universe where Menalque was the real PA but had successfully played off that claim, scum could have won the game right then and there.

[Umlaut]

Umlaut what do you think of the people pushing you?

I'm reading up now and have that in mind. My kneejerk have-to-decide-now response is that maxwell is the worst of them but I'll have a more informed opinion about it in a bit.

[Umlaut]

GL's vote on me is frustrating but his process of choosing me over maxwell is pretty transparent and looks genuine to me. I think if he wants to vote me as scum in that situation he just does it and doesn't make a show of waffling back and forth and saying I look better than maxwell does only to vote me in his next post. If this is scum acting then bravo.

Alisae, it's like you're good at scum hunting, but at some point you townread scummy individuals for something completely pointless.

Waifu upick: You no longer hard scumread scum!Bitmap because he used caps lock in an argument with you.

Fusion mafia: You townread scum!me because i called you annoying and townread you at the same time and apparently you believed "scum can't do those things."

This game: You ease your scumreading of Datisi because you found a question mark in their posts...???

wow sounds like a towntell

Actually it really does. Given that Norwegian pointed this out and not Alisae I think I buy it as one unless someone can show me a scumgame where e did similar.

621 From Datisi is a bad post.

"scum may spam to hide things they don't want seen." in 631 from titus is a very silly notion but it probably means she's town.

Disagree on both points. Re. the first, it's a reasonable thing to ask. Re. the second, I don't see how that post makes Titus town at all.

I’m trying not to drown the thread too hard with my posting

You're too late for that.

What is the point of this?

I got someone lynched for saying some arbitrary phrase and I was a lyncher and I was just like “yeah that phrase is in my role pm and says there’s a scum with That I. Their role pm”

It was a good time.

Pedit
It’s okay my dude we all get that way sometimes

Something about the timing of this post bothers me. Like, Menalque and Alisae are getting into a discussion that is veering way off-topic and instead of trying to get reads from it or calm it down or bring them back to this game, notscience just sort of tries to join in here.

I think that in general scum plan things less than people think they do, but let's say that notscience did plan a push on username. If he were scum, why would he back down upon username giving his real identity? If notscience's plan was to push him for "faked anger", I don't think that the reveal of the identity would have changed anything. It makes more sense to me viewed as notscience realizing that the anger really isn't forced given the knowledge of username's true identity.

I feel like this is

Umlaut's calling this post "much better reasoned" does him no favors in my eyes, especially considering that this post is more of an assertion than a line of reasoning.

It was better reasoned than my own pretty much nonexistent reasoning.

Okay, new plan:

I am a new player and am new to mafia scum. I didn't enter the newbie queue because the players there looked intimidating. I have no meta to use and no baggage to carry. I am free with the wind.

Really don't like this post for some reason

Idk lol, but apparently I'm supposed to be deathtunneling him.

or this one; it feels like Hel is playing "maybe this vote is serious and maybe it isn't."

Disagree with Ico's read of RR on page 33; looks like RR has already responded to that though.

fun fact: i have 2 tabs open

1 for reading the game
and a 2nd for live interaction because i love to do that a LOT more then catching up

This is a good idea and I should do the same, given that there are at least two new pages since I started catching up.

Posting this now and continuing to read

[Umlaut]

Umlaut - real quick, what's your history with Titus

She was the IC in my very first newbie game MS (where I endgamed her ), and I've been in at least two and probably more completed games with her aside from that, as well as one other in progress. I was absent from the site for I think two years up until May this year, so all of that meta is kind of old.

Interestingly I have never seen her roll scum (though I seem to recall getting the impression she's a pretty good scum player).

[Umlaut]

I think that in general scum plan things less than people think they do, but let's say that notscience did plan a push on username. If he were scum, why would he back down upon username giving his real identity? If notscience's plan was to push him for "faked anger", I don't think that the reveal of the identity would have changed anything. It makes more sense to me viewed as notscience realizing that the anger really isn't forced given the knowledge of username's true identity.

I feel like this is

Like this is...?

Sorry. Like this is already adequately responded to by username's own accusation, that notscience backed down because he no longer believed username was an easy push after finding out his true identity. You are asking "why would he do this" when an explanation has already been proffered for why he would do this, and not actually saying that explanation is poor so much as glossing over it.

Also, please answer this question, which you ignored:

I think there's a high probability there is at least one smuggler in those who haven't posted since NK15 outed. (Which is six players so that's not a hugely impressive deduction I guess)

Why? Is there something causal about not posting since NK15 posted and being scum, or is this just a comment on the specific people who make up that group?

Ugh, I explicitly intended to answer this question when I initially saw it and then skipped over it when I was posting.

The point was that the smugglers would have to make up their mind how to react to the claim and particularly whether to just instantly profess belief in it or not, and I found it unlikely that all of them would pop right in and give their own opinions before the town did. This point doesn't really work though if NK15 is scum (which I believe he is) because presumably they would have planned this out at least to the extent of NK saying "hey I'm going to claim PA, cool?" and wouldn't have been caught completely off guard.

pedit

everyone stop posting for a second so I can, geez

[Umlaut]

@Moment - sorry I think you thought I was saying your question was weird, what I'm saying is Umlaut all 'people who haven't posted are scum' is and remains weird

That isn't what I said at all.

[Umlaut]

yeh Smart is convincing

NK15/Umlaut/Datisi

quote me on this postgame

Will do!

If NK15 is town then he’s misplayed hard. But i’m not really willing to take that chance.

He's literally a safe elimination (and in that sense it would be a mistake to not flip him or check him at some point) but also some of the scummiest players in the game (Datisi, Umlaut) are flocking to voting him like flies on rotting meat

Is this supposed to be an argument for not flipping NK15 today? Because it seems like it is but you aren't really trying that hard to defend him and seem to be saying you are fine with it despite criticizing the wagon.

[Umlaut]

That’s a really good point max, I didn’t consider that.

Okay.

So maybe I’m wrong about the worm? He was very quick to discredit my hot take earlier.

I have to say that hot take kind of looks like TMI in retrospect, honestly. So I guess I'm still discrediting it now.

Is this supposed to be an argument for not flipping NK15 today? Because it seems like it is but you aren't really trying that hard to defend him and seem to be saying you are fine with it despite criticizing the wagon.

I was ambivalent to it but have come around to the idea, independent of my reads on the people voting him.

Thanks for answering. So your model of the game right now is that Datisi and I are likely busing?

[Umlaut]

I especially love following orders from someone who got caught in a lie they made while trying to bark orders

Going to just QFT this before I go about analyzing or writing anything else

[Umlaut]

Trying to catch up now and it looks like everyone is talking mechanics.

There are a number of people who have already been spewed not-TD in the process of this discussion. In their case the damage is done. Why don't we just put all of them (or a subset of them) on the shipment to be inspected? Then we don't give scum any information they haven't already gotten, all we do is determine whether there's scum in that pool.

[Umlaut]

Want to also reiterate I am very much in favor of executing NK15 today, if only because it frees us from the need to play "which of these two wagons do we execute" games that leak information

[Umlaut]

I'm in the middle of writing another reply to you, Moment, but want to say that's just silly. There are two or three comments in this thread saying "STOP SPEWING YOURSELF NOT-TD" and that's what I'm responding to, so if you're looking for people keeping track of that there is no reason to start with me.

[Umlaut]

It's such wishful thinking to me to think that NK15 is scum. Either wishful thinking or pure laziness.

People just see "Oh, looks like he got caught fakeclaiming" and their brains stop thinking past that point. There can't be any more nuance, anyone who did that must be scum. Yes SS, I've already heard and responded to you talking about the scum motivation, you don't need to say it again. I feel as though you're making a failure of theory of mind – I don't think you're properly trying to think from NK15's perspective. I think his posts from the rest of this day strongly evidence the fact that he has pretty strong convictions in the setup that you're not considering when you think about motivation.

To anyone who says anything along the line of "well he'll always be a question mark so we have to deal with him", your mindset is truly flawed. There is nothing forcing your hand. Any sort of "obligation" you feel is completely constructed. Obviously you feel as though he's scum for what he's done, but my main point here is that that's just an

element

of a

read

, not any sort of obligation that something "must" happen. I say this because I think thinking along the lines of how someone "has to die anyways" is poison to thought. I have experienced it before where someone

agreed with me

on reasons to townread someone they thought had to die before endgame, and yet

still

they said "It doesn't matter anyways if I townread her, because she can't live to lylo".

There, just as it is here, I feel that once people had constructed in their head that someone could not live to the endgame, the relevance of reads on that player was out. Death eventually had to come, and specific arguments didn't really matter because of course she has to die anyways. I don't feel as though that mindset is germane to having a discussion or to winning the game.

This upsets me even further because NK15 is already among the least eloquent, least charismatic, most mislynched players on the entire site. If you're wondering why I keep making comments about making the same mistakes over and over, it's because I see the same players get lynched over and over by the same other players. Adding the situation with the PA on top of that is just too much. I was in the same situation as NK15 once upon a time, and I got out of it only through a grueling few days of

constant

argumentation

and

pushing a wagon on scum over myself. Of course NK15 was never going to get out of it. It just feels so unjust.


I wonder if some people even believe in the scumread themselves – truly believe, rather than just belief in belief. You're calling him a "douche" and getting really angry at him. What's the point of that if it was just a scum ploy to do whatever?

the one thing i was unsure about was how to handle these douches who thought it was smart to fake claim PA and try to fake-lead on town

This is an excellent post, and deserves a response.

I don't think that everyone who ever lies is scum. I do think that lying is almost always

anti-town

(outside of a few highly specialized scenarios which are usually too obvious to argue) and it seems like you agree on that, since you aren't defending NK15's actions as good, so we have a starting point there. And I agree that if I'm convinced despite the lies that someone is town I'm not going to vote to execute them just because we "have to." That said I am a strong proponent of launching all liars (into the sun) in the absence of overwhelming evidence that they are nonetheless innocent. I don't see any such overwhelming evidence in this case.

I think an important aspect of my read on NK15's claim, which is subjective and impossible for me to prove so you can just believe me or not, is that at the time I saw it I

didn't realize

the PA could confirm themselves. I sort of skimmed the rules for this game and missed a lot of the details like that, and so I only realized the role was confirmable when reading other responses to it. As such, I know it is possible to miss this and I think it's quite likely a smuggler!NK15 either didn't know or just wasn't thinking about that detail, and simply didn't realize the implications of fakeclaiming when he did.

Another aspect is the manner in which he carried out the claim: he didn't just say "I'm the PA, everyone else stop fakeclaiming" or something like that, he

tried to direct the course of the game

and specifically tried to set up a situation in which

we execute whomever he tells us to execute.

Others have made it clear how a plan like this impedes natural read formation and the only benefit is that it protects us from accidentally executing the TD, but if a non-PA is carrying it out

it doesn't even do that.

But if NK15 is a smuggler then it makes perfect sense as, if carried out, it would have pretty much guaranteed a green flip today and allowed him to direct an investigation onto town that might reveal the TD. I don't know if it's a good plan (he did get counterclaimed after all) but it's at least a plan I can imagine someone thinking is good for long enough to pull the trigger on it.

So this isn't a case where I'm saying "sure it makes more sense for this claim to come from town but I'm going to vote them anyway." I actually think on balance NK15 is the most likely scum out of anyone in the game and that's why I'm voting him. If you don't think that then I guess you shouldn't, but I believe you're trying too hard to come up with innocent explanations for something that doesn't really have one.

[Umlaut]

Moment, it is a common phenomenon in many games, of which I think Mafia is one, that good players more often lose because they think they have found an exception to the usual guidelines for good play and are mistaken, than because they followed those guidelines too closely.

[Umlaut]

I had a minor emergency come up this afternoon-evening and now it's 3am and I have to sleep. I'll engage with this game tomorrow.

[Umlaut]

Everone goes on linen

except for Datisi/Moment/notscience - they go to wheat

everyone is voting to inspect wheat

we are executing Maki

(really sorry to have to play like this, i tried my best not having to out but here we are)

ugh

I really think NK15 needs to flip and I don't understand why PA is calling the execution 100%, but not going to argue the point.

I'm already shipping linen and inspecting wheat, just doing a quick count before I vote Maki.

[Umlaut]

By my count:

• A majority of players are voting to inspect wheat, so that's going to happen
  
• A few players are still shipping copper but that doesn't really matter
  
• All of {Datisi, Moment, notscience} are shipping wheat as requested
  
• Also shipping wheat are {Hel, Menalque, Maki Harukawa} (but Maki doesn't really matter if we're executing them)

Going to wait for Hel and Menalque to move before voting. Weirdly enough Hel has posted and changed her inspection and vote but didn't change her shipment.

[Umlaut]

The fact that Maki is just submitting to this makes me not want to do it :/

Can we swap notscience and Maki here (execute notscience and inspect Maki), or something? I'm seeing the sentiment that it's anti-town to discuss these things but I don't see a way it can be.

[Umlaut]

Actually I don't even know if I want to execute notscience either, given he's one of the ones griping about this.

Siiiiigh

[Umlaut]

I'd rather not be executed thanks. And I really hate that we're not executing

or

investigating NK15

[Umlaut]

Menalque, how does your shipping wheat help with any of this? Is it just a protest vote?

[Umlaut]

All right, let's murder us a townie.

VOTE: Maki

Menalque, are you a red or a white wine man?

[Umlaut]

seongsrning

Quoting this miracle of a word for posterity

[Umlaut]

Oh yeah,

Maki is at L-1

[Umlaut]

or E-1, or X-1, whatever

Maki is almost murderized

[Umlaut]

username, are you saying you actually think Maki flips red?

[Umlaut]

This is the scummiest post I've ever read

And I literally lost team mafia 2020 because my partner accidentally scum slipped


In fact this is the scummiest post I've ever read including the times I've actually claimed scum

Hilariously, this is not the first time I've had someone say that about a post I made as town.

(Well, they didn't say they lost Team Mafia 2020, but you know what I mean)

[Umlaut]

GL, you're right actually, it's not or shouldn't be a strong source of towncred (though not a source of anti-towncred because I don't actually think "scum are

less

likely to pretend to be convinced in the value of the elimination").

I was just happy to see someone complaining about it and it made me have positive feelings toward them, I didn't think critically about how strong a tell it was.

[Umlaut]

WE GOT ONE. Hopefully this means people can calm down a little, end of day yesterday was really painful. We get to play mafia! Thank fuck.

ship wheat
Execute maki

Not executing nk is absolutely the wrong play but fuck it might as well hand the game over to scum

This isn't the post of someone who knows they're about to get guiltied.

This is a bad pool that I don't understand. Iconeum, I suggest you reconsider.

This is.

Vote: Moment

This is an excellent point. I was intending to vote notscience today if we found tea, but I need to think about it now. I did like a lot of Moment's posts yesterday but if I try to imagine him as scum I could sort of see him still being able to make those posts.

Going to think and read more before voting. If nothing else we don't want anyone getting executed before we have a good shipping and inspection plan.

[Umlaut]

Okay, absolutely bonkers idea here, buuuut

Iconeum/NK15/notscience scumteam.

I'm happy to entertain bonkers ideas, but I really can't imagine the PA not outing if this were the case.

[Umlaut]

hmm actually thinking about maxwell's post I guess notscience is never scum with nk (clearly) whereas if Moment is scum, he benefits regardless of nk's alignment bc if nk is scum he lives longer with Moment's defense and if nk is town he looks hella bad on a Moment scumflip combined with the fakeclaim and probably gets miseliminated anyway

If my hypothesis is correct that NK15 is scum who claimed PA without realizing the consequences, then I could easily see a scum!notscience deciding to throw them under the bus as quickly and definitely as possible on the assumption he's going down anyway. Is there a reason his play yesterday couldn't be explained in that way?

[Umlaut]

Going to be low-activity until Monday, btw, though that's short enough I shouldn't need to V/LA

[Umlaut]

Prodge
Kids wore me out this weekend
I'll play tomorrow

[Umlaut]

I started writing a catchup post earlier today then walked away and lost it, fml

Short version: I think NS is the scum on the shipment, Moment made himself look pretty town

Doing a real catchup sometime tonight

[Umlaut]

I think just letting Ico call the shipment is the safest option; either that or we build two mutually exclusive shipments, on copper and wheat, and let Ico direct the inspection votes onto one or the other. But haven't read whatever other mechanical ideas people have come up with so far

[Umlaut]

Also we

definitely

have to investigate NK15. If I could direct the investigation I'd say pair NK15 with a couple of others who are non-TD-spewed and check them all, then execute NK15 first if we hit tea (unless notscience flips green, then execute in the smaller pool)

[Umlaut]

Also we

definitely

have to investigate NK15.

Why?

I mean, mostly because I refuse to lose the game to a living NK15 who was caught in a lie midway through day 1.

[Umlaut]

Give me 1 good reason scum!NK chooses to lie and fake claim like that, and in the process has a high chance of comitting seppuku

As I said, I don't have a good reason but a bad reason could be that he just didn't understand the setup properly.

[Umlaut]

Also that whole line of argument is inherently self-defeating: if you're refusing to execute or even investigate him precisely because he fakeclaimed then you can't also say it's a bad scum play

[Umlaut]

I'd be happy with that pool actually. Kind of small if it comes up tea-free but not unworkably so.

[Umlaut]

Oh wait, I didn't notice want me in there too. Not too small then.

[Umlaut]

Also we

definitely

have to investigate NK15.

Why?

I mean, mostly because I refuse to lose the game to a living NK15 who was caught in a lie midway through day 1.

Are you aware that this is a purely emotional play?

It seems to me that if your goal is to minimize your chance of losing or maximize your chance of winning, choosing an investigation based off of today's lynch is the method to do that. That is to say, an investigation based off of the information gained from notscience's flip.

Yeah, as I phrased it it's purely emotional.

Maybe the thing to do would take the best single person to inspect given notscience flips green, and the best single person given he flips red, and put them together? But I think NK15 has to be at least one of those.

[Umlaut]

options on which I will not state my opinion publicly

as for my vote, at the moment I'm thinking notscience>moment>datisi

Why Moment over Datisi? (I think it's safe for you to talk about this at least)

[Umlaut]

If notscience flips red than his immediate disbelief of the NK15 claim seems a lot like TMI, which would imply NK15 is scum.

[Umlaut]

5 days left

please start reaffirming at least 2 brackets to invest

{NK15, EE, RR} (all known not TD)

I actually think RR is pretty town but it doesn't hurt to have him in there.

[Umlaut]

Is the convention just that we always inspect wheat?

INSPECT: Wheat[/v]

[Umlaut]

ugh

INSPECT: Wheat

[Umlaut]

what is everyone's thoughts about the size of Night 2 inspect?

3 seemed to be what most people are shooting for, but i saw menal opting for maybe 2

3 has better odds of catching scum, but with 2 we lessen the damage if we don't hit tea

Both of these are double-edged.

• 3 has better odds of catching scum, but lower payoff if we do.
  
• 2 may lessen the “damage” of a no-tea result, but having a number of players confirmed town is good anyway.

Given how scumsided this setup seems to be I think 2 may be the better option just because it has higher variance (in general, when you are losing a game, raising the variance is a good thing).

[Umlaut]

umlaut if you could pick 2, who would they be?

I guess {NK15, EE}, I don't really think RR has significant chances of being scum.

[Umlaut]

Don't need Icon's blessing.

...But I want it?

scum. Doesnt want to get a second guiltea and tries to escape it.

...if S_S is scum why would he want you, who are town, to be off the wheat shipment, narrowing the scum pool further? How does this escape anything from his perspective?

[Umlaut]

I'm swayed by the 3 pool > 2 pool argument from a math perspective and now that NK15 has openly claimed NotTD then we may as well throw him in the pool. Umlaut's 1856 again strikes me as someone who is more concerned with scoring points over logical/mechanics arguments instead of actually evaluating alignments, he's right about the flaws in NK15's reasoning but he's also at the same time ignoring the fact that there's really no scum!agenda in NK15 volunteering himself to be in the pool to begin with

Despite the tone, that was an actual question I was asking NK15 and was (and am) hoping for an answer to. Maybe that answer is just "derp, I wasn't thinking" but maybe there is some actual reasoning there and I was hoping to see what it was.

[Umlaut]

Is the shipment sorted yet? I see people voting so I assume it is.

[Umlaut]

VOTE: notscience

[Umlaut]

VoteCount 2.5

notscience

[9] - Menalque, username, Titus, Moment, Datisi, GuiltyLion,

NorwegianboyEE

, maxwell, Hel [LYNCH]

Moment [1] - Alisae
Datisi [1] -

notscience

Not Known 15 [1] -

Something_Smart

Not Voting [4]

-

Radical Rat

, Umlaut,

Iconeum

, Not Known 15

With 16 alive it takes 9 votes to be executed.

Well that was useless once I remembered we're playing "Everyone vote who Iconeum says" but I had already started doing it by then so here it is.

(Ali, hel)? Worth checking in (datisi, moment) again too probably because a false negative would fuck us hard here

We actually can get to that without wasting an investigation on two likely town. Today we should use today for three new people. That's because today is the last day for an autowin if we catch in three.

By this do you mean execute one and investigate two others? Just making sure I'm understanding correctly.

[Umlaut]

Spoiler: Colored day 1 vote counts from before Iconeum's claim

VC 1.1

Titus [1] - Umlaut

Iconeum

[2] -

Datisi

, Menalque
Umlaut [1] - Not Known 15
Alisae [1] - Titus

NorwegianboyEE

[1] - Hel

Not Voting [11] - Alisae,

Maki Harukawa

, username,

Moment

, GuiltyLion,

Something_Smart

, maxwell,

Iconeum

,

Radical Rat

,

notscience

,

NorwegianboyEE

VC 1.2

Titus [1] - Umlaut

Iconeum

[2] -

Datisi

, Menalque
Umlaut [1] - Not Known 15
Alisae [1] - Titus

NorwegianboyEE

[2] - Hel,

Moment

Datisi

[1] - GuiltyLion

Not Voting [9] - Alisae,

Maki Harukawa

, username,

Something_Smart

, maxwell,

Iconeum

,

Radical Rat

,

notscience

,

NorwegianboyEE

VC 1.3

Titus [3] - Umlaut, maxwell,

Maki Harukawa

Iconeum

[2] -

Datisi

, Menalque
Umlaut [1] - Not Known 15
Alisae [1] - Titus

NorwegianboyEE

[2] - Hel,

Moment

Datisi

[1] - GuiltyLion

Not Voting [7] - Alisae, username,

Something_Smart

,

Iconeum

,

Radical Rat

,

notscience

,

NorwegianboyEE

VC 1.4

Titus [3] - Umlaut, maxwell,

Maki Harukawa

Iconeum

[3] -

Datisi

, Menalque, Alisae
Umlaut [1] - Not Known 15

NorwegianboyEE

[2] - Hel,

Moment

Datisi

[1] - GuiltyLion
username [1] -

NorwegianboyEE

Not Voting [6] - username,

Something_Smart

,

Iconeum

,

Radical Rat

,

notscience

, Titus

VC 1.5

Titus [2] - maxwell,

notscience

Iconeum

[1] -

Datisi

Umlaut [1] - Not Known 15

NorwegianboyEE

[3] - Hel,

Moment

,

Maki Harukawa

Datisi

[2] - GuiltyLion, Alisae
username [1] -

NorwegianboyEE

Alisae [1] - Menalque
Hel [1] - username
Not Known 15 [1] - Umlaut

Not Voting [4] -

Something_Smart

,

Iconeum

,

Radical Rat

, Titus

VC 1.6

Titus [1] - maxwell

Iconeum

[1] -

Datisi

Umlaut [1] - Not Known 15

NorwegianboyEE

[3] - Hel,

Moment

,

Maki Harukawa

Datisi

[1] - GuiltyLion
username [1] -

NorwegianboyEE

Alisae [1] - Menalque
Not Known 15 [1] - Umlaut
Menalque [1] -

Radical Rat

notscience

[1] - username

Not Voting [5] -

Something_Smart

,

Iconeum

, Titus, Alisae,

notscience

VC 1.7

Titus [1] - maxwell

Iconeum

[1] -

Datisi

NorwegianboyEE

[2] - Hel,

Moment

Datisi

[1] - GuiltyLion
Not Known 15 [1] - Umlaut
Menalque [1] -

Maki Harukawa

notscience

[1] - username
maxwell [2] - Menalque,

NorwegianboyEE

Hel [1] -

Radical Rat

Not Voting [6] -

Something_Smart

,

Iconeum

, Titus, Alisae,

notscience

, Not Known 15

VC 1.8

Iconeum

[1] -

Datisi

NorwegianboyEE

[2] - Hel,

Moment

Datisi

[1] - GuiltyLion
Menalque [1] -

Maki Harukawa

notscience

[4] - username, Umlaut,

Radical Rat

, Titus
maxwell [1] - Menalque
Hel [1] -

NorwegianboyEE

Umlaut [1] - maxwell

Not Voting [5] -

Something_Smart

,

Iconeum

, Alisae,

notscience

, Not Known 15

VC 1.9

Iconeum

[1] -

Datisi

NorwegianboyEE

[2] - Hel,

Moment

Menalque [1] -

Maki Harukawa

notscience

[4] - username,

Radical Rat

, Titus, Menalque
Umlaut [4] - maxwell, Alisae,

NorwegianboyEE

, GuiltyLion
Titus [1] - Umlaut

Not Voting [4] -

Something_Smart

,

Iconeum

,

notscience

, Not Known 15

Spoiler: Colored day 1 vote counts from after Iconeum's claim but before it called the execution

VC 1.10

NorwegianboyEE

[1] - Hel
Menalque [1] -

Maki Harukawa

notscience

[3] -

Radical Rat

, Titus, Menalque
Umlaut [4] - maxwell, Alisae, GuiltyLion,

Moment

Not Known 15 [5] -

NorwegianboyEE

,

Datisi

, username,

notscience

, Umlaut

Not Voting [3] -

Something_Smart

,

Iconeum

, Not Known 15

VC 1.11

NorwegianboyEE

[1] - Hel

notscience

[3] -

Radical Rat

, Titus, Menalque
Umlaut [3] - maxwell, GuiltyLion,

Moment

Not Known 15 [6] -

NorwegianboyEE

,

Datisi

, username,

notscience

, Umlaut, Alisae

Not Voting [4] -

Something_Smart

,

Iconeum

, Not Known 15,

Maki Harukawa

VC 1.12

NorwegianboyEE [2] - Hel, Menalque
Umlaut [3] - maxwell, GuiltyLion,

Moment

Not Known 15 [7] -

NorwegianboyEE

,

Datisi

, username,

notscience

, Umlaut, Alisae, Titus

Not Voting [5] -

Something_Smart

,

Iconeum

, Not Known 15,

Maki Harukawa

,

Radical Rat

Spoiler: Colored day 1 vote counts from after Iconeum called the execution

VC 1.13

NorwegianboyEE

[1] - Menalque
Umlaut [2] - maxwell,

Moment

Not Known 15 [4] -

NorwegianboyEE

,

Datisi

, Umlaut, Alisae

notscience

[1] - username

Maki Harukawa

[5] - Hel, Titus,

Radical Rat

,

notscience

, GuiltyLion

Not Voting [4] -

Something_Smart

,

Iconeum

, Not Known 15,

Maki Harukawa

VC 1.14

Umlaut [2] - maxwell,

Moment

Not Known 15 [2] -

Datisi

,

notscience

notscience

[1] - username
Maki Harukawa [6] - Hel, Titus,

Radical Rat

, GuiltyLion, Menalque, Umlaut

Datisi

[1] -

NorwegianboyEE

Not Voting [5] -

Something_Smart

,

Iconeum

, Not Known 15, Maki Harukawa, Alisae

VC 1.15

Umlaut [1] -

Moment

Not Known 15 [2] -

Datisi

,

notscience

notscience

[1] - username
Maki Harukawa [9] - Hel, Titus,

Radical Rat

, GuiltyLion, Menalque, Umlaut,

Something_Smart

, maxwell, Not Known 15 [LYNCH]

Datisi

[1] -

NorwegianboyEE

Not Voting [3] -

Iconeum

,

Maki Harukawa

, Alisae

Simple conclusions:

• username is town (I already knew that)
  
• Titus and Menalque are either town or they were busing notscience hard (I already thought Menalque was town anyway but this is useful for Titus)
  
• One of Datisi or Alisae is likely scum (or me, but I'm not), since NK15 was a great wagon for scum to be on and there was probably more than just one (this is true even if NK15 is scum -- I would 100% powerbus in that scenario -- though I'm starting to come around a bit to the idea maybe he's town after all)

I'll leave the less simple conclusions to someone who actually knows how to VCA

*cough*Titus*cough*

No idea what the VC is and too lazy to check, so
HURT: Alisae

Not sure about inspections but I suppose just putting me and Datisi in an inspection pool would make sense. Maybe NK15 too to get both sides of that wagon.

[Umlaut]

Okay, so unless titus has a compelling reason for there being no scum on the umlaut wagon I think we can all get on board with icon choosing between (maxwell, ali) today, reinvestigating (datisi, moment, maybe nk15) then tomorrow we execute the other in (ali, maxwell) if it’s not GG and then N4 we invest GL if the game isn’t over by that point?

eh, I think the D3 plan for today is fine, but on D4 we need Ico again to decide the execution and the investigation

Well, we can go back to one of our earlier plans for communally deciding two or more executions and letting Icon choose between them. I don't want to leave it entirely up to Icon there and I imagine it doesn't really want that either.

I think your point is that playing "execute/investigate solely in known not-TDs" forever is too limiting which I do agree with and was about to post something similar.

pedit

oh you just said that basically.

[Umlaut]

Inspect: Wheat

Okay I literally

just

realized why finding tea in a pool of three guarantees we hit scum on or before Day 5 (because we can re-check one in case we misexectute on day 4 to be guaranteed to execute correctly on day 5). I wrote out a whole

thing

saying "am I the stupid one here for thinking three is one too many?" and it turns out yes, I am the stupid one.

So yes, I definitely agree we need one more in this inspection. Maxwell isn't a bad choice, neither is Hel.

[Umlaut]

(Maybe we should inspect copper today and have the three individuals ship copper, just to mix it up a

little

)

[Umlaut]

i have a strong preference to investigate datis + moment without adding anyone

Agree. We shouldn't be adding anyone on top of that for today.

The new investigates can wait until tomorrow.

Datisi, if GuiltyLion was an unnamed player, I would be townleaning his content.

This makes me want to investigate Hel even more.

And luckily she really wants to ship wheat, so that works out!

[Umlaut]

Actually this works well. Iconeum can decide whether we're putting Moment/Datisi onto wheat or onto copper, so it has a choice.

[Umlaut]

Still think we should be just investigating Datisi + Moment. Adding someone and then getting tea would be a really annoying result. We should check them both on their own at the free price of no tomboy daughter information given away.

Why would this be annoying?

• We learn one of A, B, or C is scum.
  
• We execute A, and investigate B again.
  
• If A was innocent, we execute B or C depending on how the last investigation went.
  
• We win (assuming TD wasn't among those three... which I do assume)

[Umlaut]

Are we decidedly flipping Maxwell first anyways? The basics of it are that I think Datisi is town but I couldn't say the same about Maxwell and I'd rather simply investigate a suspect alone than potentially be in a guilty pool with him.

this seems pretty janky

if Maxwell is scum then there's literally no harm in being in a pool with him, given the game state this town would probably execute Maxwell first on a guilTea result anyway?

this feels like survivalist logic to avoid being put in the pool more than rational thinking

Agreed with this. I noticed Moment has pretty much objected to every investigation that includes them and seems full of alternatives none of which include them.

[Umlaut]

If Moment refuses to comply then I think the correct course of action is to execute them and add Alisae to the pool.

[Umlaut]

Inspect: Copper

[Umlaut]

Alisae, can you get on copper please? It's your best shot at surviving the day and possibly even the game if you're town.

[Umlaut]

Alisae, can you get on copper please? It's your best shot at surviving the day and possibly even the game if you're town.

why would i want to survive the day if im town here? to get flipped on another day phase?

If Moment ends up walking the plank today (and flips blue) and then the investigation turns up tealess, we may be in rough shape but at least you get confirmed merchant and we don't have to flip you at all.

[Umlaut]

If we can get everyone to along with it we can also have everyone else ship e.g. wheat, and move Datisi/Maxwell/Moment to linen, since that's where Moment is already.

If Moment then moves their shipment elsewhere then we know they're actively resisting and can execute them without qualms.

[Umlaut]

How about a race?

Whichever of Alisae/Moment gets on the inspection ship first gets to live. The other is executed.

I endorse this plan

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Moment

[Umlaut]

I would say wtf about that inspection vote but it

would

be kind of funny if we conftown like 11 people at once (except for the part where we almost certainly lose because TD)

[Umlaut]

(Well, and the part where it doesn't happen because everyone outside the linen shipment is presumed not-TD anyway)

[Umlaut]

I'm actually sort of excited we're finally doing something that isn't directly by order of Iconeum.

[Umlaut]

Inspect: Linen

Maybe it's unfair of me, but I'm willing to give Hel's vote for linen a pass as just Hel being ridiculous, while being massively suspicious of this one.

[Umlaut]

I think we should just choose a lunch and a re-inspect from this pool and follow it with as little discussion as possible.

Inspect: Copper

First of {Maxwell, Datisi, Alisae} to ship copper gets to live today.

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Alisae

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Datisi

[Umlaut]

everyone should shut up and keep talk for post game btw

[Umlaut]

Hey guys, remember when I voted Titus day 1 and like three or four people called the vote terrible and said I was scum for it? Good times.

[Umlaut]

Thanks for saving my bacon, pa!

[Umlaut]

I don't normally get tilted by things that happen in games but the state of day 1 as of VC 1.9 (as FakeGod pointed out) was so stressful for me, thinking my play might singlehandedly lose us the game on Day 1, that I nearly replaced out from the pressure and I never really recovered my ability to play this game properly and just sort of phoned it in for the rest. Sorry I didn't contribute more but maybe you can understand how it happened.

[Umlaut]

The most "fun" part was my early scumread on notscience that people were

demanding I explain or else I was scum

and that I couldn't possibly explain because it stemmed from my knowing NK15 was fakeclaiming.

[Umlaut]

Yeah +1 I’m prodging until I get lynched or Icon big brain solves the game where no one wants to post because their opinions don’t matter

This post pretty funny in retrospect, given Icon did exactly that.