Mini Normal 2154 - Endgame
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Not going to go through this work, why not just tell us what happened lol? Also why do you think meta is sufficient to explain this away while inexperience is not?In post 59, osuka wrote:For all of you who find truths posts so far deeply jarring, I suggest you look at one of his other normals on here because he somehow made it alive for several days and there’s a lot of very puzzling things about how he played that game
Also glad you've solved the game before 100 posts redtea- superbowl9
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Nah you were great bugspray <3
Also I'm not fully looking through a game I'm not playing, but I did peek over at Truth's game and was surprised to find that you were in it osuka (along with looker and licketyquick). Do you think the claim is AI? Did you talk about why claiming D1 is bad, and was there any justification for why the fakeclaim was made?
I'm confused as to Truth would know to fakeclaim mason and reference buddies and crumbing, yet not know enough to fakeclaim D1 - kind of lends credibility to the off-site stuff imo.- superbowl9
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Can I press you for reads? You seemed more... verbose last game (yes we are in RVS and you replaced into a near solve as a PR, but still)In post 96, Dunnstral wrote:Why are people pressing LQ for reads?- superbowl9
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Inclined to agree with this take but have been wrong on my last 2 "anti-town but no scum motive" type reads, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯In post 133, Psyche wrote:seems a pretty straightforward player by nature. can't find an interpretation of these posts that squares w/ a scum win conditon, especially in light of the account's meta. your suspicion by comparison seems hard to interpret. suppose the player's lying about where they played mafia: what does their choice to tell that lie have to do with their alignment? i see that the behavior'a odd, but i don't see anyone drawing connections between the slot's odd behavior and the slot's win condition.
At the end of the day if Truth's willing to claim on the first post how much can we really analyze their mindset lol?- superbowl9
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Okay you're town for nowIn post 163, Dunnstral wrote:I found nothing wrong with redtea's posts, and Truth looks like guillotinebait. bugspray looks opportunistic trying to push the two of them as scum- superbowl9
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ToTIn post 169, bugspray wrote:superbol9
When I say dunnstral is "towned for now" I mean that I am townreading him now, and have marked it in my head as a read to revisit at some point.
It's on purpose to an extent. I think the bugspray wagon has been productive in the pressure it has produced so far, even if I'm still somewhat null on bugspray if that makes sense. I don't townread them, so taking my vote off the wagon just because it was RVS would do more harm than good imo (also why I questioned Gypyx for taking his vote off).In post 171, redtea wrote:The question I have is if he kept his RVS vote on purpose.- superbowl9
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Welcome looker!In post 201, Looker wrote:If you're town, we use your wagon as PoE. I also like assessing the votes on competing wagons, i.e. you and bugspray.
1 billion % disagree with this though - you should not wagon a player you think has good town chances just for POE. You already know from last game that I don't like VCA as it is misleading and easily manipulable but throwing up a counterwagon on whoever just because it makes VCA easier seems like losing strategy regardless.- superbowl9
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Scumping from this - scum are more likely to be hyperaware of lacking areas in their playIn post 202, WaltertheDunce10 wrote:
Yes, because it seems to me that it is pretty clear why people are voting for me.In post 200, Gypyx wrote:Yeah, but you're saying it like it makes them a lesser townie, have i misunderstood that part?- superbowl9
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bugspray what type of commital, "high-hanging fruit" posts would you like to see from someone during RVS? Because the one person who really went commital imo (Redtea's 61) you called wolfy.
To me it just seems like you're just attacking opportunistically.- superbowl9
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Gypyx I still don't get your case on Walter (at that point in the game). He's "noncommital" and lurky sure, but there are others who would match this description as well. Was Walter just the first one to cross off the list, or did he say something specifically that flagged you?In post 185, Gypyx wrote:Well, he sticks to doing non-commiting posts that don't really mean anything new / push the game foward,- superbowl9
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Yeah I interpret wolfy as like aggressive, but some ppl seem to be using it to mean scum.In post 221, bugspray wrote:
i'm rpetty sure the definition of wolfy i use is different from everyone else to mean "hunting" and then people say its bad and thats probably informed me having weird reads for a long timeIn post 218, superbowl9 wrote:bugspray what type of commital, "high-hanging fruit" posts would you like to see from someone during RVS? Because the one person who really went commital imo (Redtea's 61) you called wolfy.
To me it just seems like you're just attacking opportunistically.
the fact that your vote on me for a non-random reason indicates we are no longer in RVS
Arguing about the semantics of RVS is not really my aim here, but I will say that I view RVS as the period where you poke around at other players until you find something worth pushing, which was still the case for me before 170.
I'm the 5th person you switched your vote to in the first 7 pages, I'm just not quite sure what your goal is in target switching so much. You not addressing that part of my post doesn't help paint you in a good light.- superbowl9
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Same plsIn post 283, WaltertheDunce10 wrote:Bugspray, I would still like an answer to my question.- superbowl9
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I think psych-osuka has a good probability of having at least 1 town.
The whole thing seems very OMGUSy to me and Osuka being more reactionary than chernoblyl definitely contributed to that. I think that's just his style though - I read it as Psych kind of offhandedly started prodding him and got caught up in the OMGUS, it doesn't seem very SVS or manufactured to me.
Pedit WALTER STOP STEALING MY POSTS- superbowl9
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Just based on votes, I think that someone else is you dudeIn post 434, Psyche wrote:I don't feel confident enough in my townread to oppose [bugspray's]lynchelim, but I still believe we all should try harder to use our time to generate content to find andlynchelim someone more positively scummy- superbowl9
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Where I am on the game right now:
Firstly I don't think it would be beneficial for us to let the bugspray wagon fall apart so close to deadline - we're just going to scramble to find someone to elim and end up elimming bugspray later anyways. Why waste a future day with more bugspray to just hastily scramble to elim today? (Psyche and bugspray equity noted here 434)
There's a few people who I want more from/are on my to push list when this long af bugspray wagon actually ends, including Nash, Overkill, Dunn, and Looker. I think Psyche/osuka has been at the forefront for a little too long (again supporting my idea that this isn't staged SvS), and that because of this some people have been slipping under the radar - that's where I'm going to try to focus D2.
I think I forgot to mention this but if bugspray does flip scum gypyx's 147 and 346 look very opportunistic.
Even though Psyche tried to townbloc himself (as the second largest wagon LMAO), I think the most deservedly town by far is redtea - they've been aggressive from the jump which I just see as way too bold for scum to try and pull off.
I've also been getting just a gut suspicious feeling from Walter's posts ever since they actually started producing content, that's something I will read back over and hopefully explore D2 as well.
Lastly it would really help to have lickety back - he was actually one of the more productive players while he was posting. Lickety if you see this come back pls :'(- superbowl9
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Even if this isn't what dunnstral meant, I would also like to know what is actually going on with your 413 lol.In post 415, Looker wrote:
What is this question mark meant to accomplish?In post 414, Dunnstral wrote:?
You said a lot of things as if they don't need justification, but I think all of those do.
1. I just made a case why we should hammer bugspray, but it's definitely too early for a naked hammer request like that - maybe if it was < 1 day left that would be fine
2. Why are you telling us what to do with no explanation lol? Besides the fact that everyone is going to ignore this, I don't even think this is a good plan. What was your objective here - did you actually think everyone would see this and just drop what their plans were to follow what you said (Okay maybe truth)?- superbowl9
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There are great reasons to policy elim - or weight negatively - poor yet NAI play.In post 424, Psyche wrote:the more i think about it, the more it seems that the reason i haven't felt much affinity for the bugspray wagon is that i've seen so many townies get lynched for not being productive, coherent players. it's not really an alignment-indicative behavior on its own (scum have plenty of interest in being productive/coherent), but for some reason people on mafiascum.net just eat that shit up. everywhere i look in fact i just see half-assed justifications for voting them like what looker's decided is enough to justify a hammer.
maybe when i look closely at bugspray i'll see something stronger than that weaksauce but so far it's just a void why is it just a void
If a player is lurking, lazy, and just not helpful to town, it can be a good idea to get rid of them earlier in the game so that they don't cause distractions and waste time and energy later on during the game.
Another separate discussion is punishing players for bad play - if poor play isn't viewed as elimable your site gets more and more poor play in its games, overall reducing town EV and the quality of games.
There are exceptions to the rule and obviously you don't want to eliminate town if possible, but to say that poor play is NAI and should thus not be weighted in an evaluation of whether to elim is just incorrect. To say that a site is worse for holding people to a higher standard of play is also not a great opinion.- superbowl9
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Forced how? How would this be a scumslip?In post 483, bugspray wrote:
this explanation seems pretty forcedIn post 480, superbowl9 wrote:I'll buy the bugspray claim, seems like osuka is our best option - he will give us good information at the very least
VOTE: osuka
scumslip?- superbowl9
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Obviously, did I say we should try to elim town in my post? I said there's good reason to weight anti-town behavior or policy elim itIn post 486, Psyche wrote:We should be trying to lynch scum, not town whose playstyles we don't like. Period.- superbowl9
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Not at all true it's definitely more nuancedIn post 490, Psyche wrote:Eliminating people for reasons besides being scummy is more or less the same thing- superbowl9
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The crumb and as osuka said odd specificity helped, obviously it's not a 100% clear but I'm not really too keen on elimming a claimed PR D1 without exploring any other options.In post 491, Psyche wrote:People's reactions to bugspray's claim doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Being a ninja roleblocker doesn't exactly clear you, even if you crumb it. How did the claim affect your actual reads?- superbowl9
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Are you saying 478 was a reaction test?? Because I highly doubt thatIn post 495, WaltertheDunce10 wrote:I want to see how bugspray would react to not being at hammer phase.
He just followed my vote along which seems scummy- superbowl9
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I doubt (really i just dont believe it at all) because Walter is just coming off of confirming that this role is normal and includes reasoning alongside it - if you were reaction testing firstly why wait until that exact timing and secondly why include reasoning bugspray could cling to that would dampen the RT? Why not just near naked vote and see what happens? Also what is walter trying to test here? We know bugspray is willing to do anything to survive already, why RT that? Lastly from what I’ve seen from walter they don’t seem like the type of player to be thinking about planning out RTs - they do seem like the type of player to just retroactively say oh yeah that was a RT because they think it’s convenient.- superbowl9
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Looker
I don't usually naked vote but some of your posts had pinged me and I was going V/LA, so I figured it would be the perfect time to see how you'd react to a vote with no case! I would characterize your reaction as paranoid, which isn't a good look. I will give you the case you so desire now
You seem to just have dropped my 451, then bring it back in 621 with a complete mischaracterization. Let's address this. You made a post essentially telling town what to do (413), I say "why are you baselessly telling town what to do - how is that helpful in any way" (451), then you come back 200 posts later and say "aha! you agreed with my reads in that post, so why were you clowning it???"(621)
Instead of using my post as evidence in a case against me,can you go back and answer my 451? The point of that post was not to degrade you, or to disagree with the players you want to sort, it was to figure out what was going through your head when you made 413, which I am still confused about.
More stuff wrong with your 621 - you point to 449 as though I am trying to bring attention away from psyche/osuka now that psyche is cleared, but psyche wasn't cleared until 454. I also don't know why you said I thought I would be alive D2 for this:
All of that is really just misinformation that you've pushed though, and I'm really not inclined to view that as AI by itself. What I have been scumreading from you is your reasoning. You pushed a counterwagon for VCA stuff in 201, but abandoned that (admittedly very bad) idea 2 posts later to hop on the main wagon for the day (conveniently right after bugspray's crumb might I add?) To me this shows that the principle behind your votes has been quite weak.In post 449, superbowl9 wrote:that's something I will read back over andhopefullyexplore D2 as well.
Another ping for me is the paranoia in your recent posts - you seem quite anxious for a case on you that you can shut down and have been OMGUSy (which you also think is scum indicative LOL). This will make more sense when I get to dunnstral, but you both are like two sides of the same coin to me: you both pop in here and there and provide some guarded content, but dunn reads quite confident and goal-oriented with his, while you feel almost jumpy and lacking in distinct motivations with yours. I like my vote on you right now.
P.S. - Another post coming soon with other game thoughts, so I probably wont respond to stuff from this until that one's out. After that though I should be able to jump back into stuff.- superbowl9
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Didn't really want to comment on the pronoun stuff/get political, but I think although it is kind of a dick move to call someone out for it, looker does have a point that bugspray could have just used the pronoun stuff to distract the conversation from their alignment. Again, do I think that bugspray actually did this or that bugspray shouldn't be talking about pronouns because they're irrelevant? Absolutely not. But I do think that that's an opinion that someone might hold, so to lol it off seems incorrect to me.In post 795, Nepenthes wrote:Tbh id be surprised if looker flipped scum, they spent most of the leadup to bugsprays execution calling the pronoun insistence a scum strat (like lol)
Now off to write pt. 2- superbowl9
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Didn't really want to comment on the pronoun stuff/get political, but I think although it is kind of a dick move to call someone out for it, looker does have a point that bugspray could have just used the pronoun stuff to distract the conversation from their alignment. Again, do I think that bugspray actually did this or that bugspray shouldn't be talking about pronouns because they're irrelevant? Absolutely not. But I do think that that's an opinion that someone might hold, so to lol it off seems incorrect to me.In post 795, Nepenthes wrote:Tbh id be surprised if looker flipped scum, they spent most of the leadup to bugsprays execution calling the pronoun insistence a scum strat (like lol)
Now off to write pt. 2- superbowl9
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Truth, the worst, and dunn
TW, you have been great since you came in. I do think, however, that you are focusing on the wrong things, and since your word is having a lot of sway (with walter even sheeping you), I think we should stop wasting time with discussion that's not going to bring us anywhere.
Firstly, this Truth wagon. I think it's fine if we want to policy elim Truth,but we're having the wrong discussions about this slot. We should not be talking about the reasoning behind their actions, and whether a certain post is scummy or towny. How are you going to accurately analyze the mindset of someone who claims D1, calls for others to claim for clarity, blindly sheeps, etc. etc. etc. To say that anyone can evaluate Truth's alignment using normal metrics I think would be foolish.
This leaves us with two options fmpov. One is to policy elim Truth ASAP. The other is to essentially treat Truth as a non-factor and ignore them until a decisive tell manifests or until we absolutely have to address them (2 town v 1 scum or some such scenario). I think there's a case for both sides, but if we want to policy elim we need to do it asap or it's just turned into our second scenario, except now we've wasted time and let scum fly under the radar as we have meaninglessly debated Truth. I was under the impression that we had decided to go with the second option Day 1, but if we want to reevaluate that's fine (although a little suspiciously looks like saving an easy ML till D2). Let's just have the discussion we should be having instead of a useless one that only seems productive.
On dunnstral - I said I would stuff him in town and re-evaluate D2, and he's continued to come off very towny to me since then. I find myself nodding my head at each of his posts (i understand that statement is extemely memeable), as they are accurate, help move the gamestate forwards, and just make sense from a town mindset. Granted a lot of this is contextual, so it's kind of hard to make a succinct case here without going into more detail about the context of certain posts/mindset stuff. I think that this is what a lot of the replaces who came in and started pushing him are missing tho - I think the worst kind of admits this by saying the case was clickbaity.
At the end of the day Dunn comes off as very "sit back and analyze" to me as opposed to "sit back and let other people do the work". It's easy to target that type of playstyle since he's not churning out towny content, but I think if you poke him you will see for yourself that he's thinking about stuff and not just sitting in the back picking off MLs. I also get that I haven't really provided hard evidence here, so if you want me to go into more details on these specifics lmk and I can give you a couple of his interactions that townpinged me.
Other stuff
Also don't understand the redtea case, I just don't see scum coming out swinging like he did and providing such specific early reads and theories, seems wayyyy more likely to be confident town having fun with the game than 8d chess scum to me.
Although the worst faked the gypyx result (-.-) I do like his reaction to being "conftown", it seemed very natural to me in the context of his behavior in our games together. As long as that content promise comes thru I have no major complaints with that slot.
I think my to watch list for now is Titus/chkflip/looker/osuka, particularly annoying is chkflip, as I was pretty solidly null on Nash and he seems quite competent, so it will probably be hard to get a read for a while. Can you just play worse please?
Osuka seems like another interesting slot for me that I will/have been having a tough time reading, but I they're on the to do list for now because I don't want to reread through his iso today. That is probably coming up soon tho, so watch out buddy- superbowl9
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Like can you just do something so bad I know what your alignment is
Or you can just tell me but you have to pinky promise not to lie- superbowl9
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I think the equity of elimming Truth has dropped a lot since we elimed elsewhere D1. That being said I think it will only to continue to fall (and maybe spike back up if they are one of the last ones standing), so if we wanted to do it it's now or never. That being said I think both looker and titus are better options for us today.- superbowl9
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Oh man not again ToTIn post 857, the worst wrote:soupbowl- superbowl9
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Not really at all lol, you're the only one I've heard in any of my games telling town to do something instead ofIn post 871, Looker wrote:This whole game is just 'telling town what to do' so I don't see why my Post 413 would be so weird. I was going V/LA and wanted to post my thoughts, as opposed to superbowl who went V/LA and voted baselessly (or "nakedly").
It was also very obvious that I suspected bugspray, hence the call for hammer, and Psyche/Osuka, hence the call for sorting. The overlooked players I mentioned after that, superbowl also mentioned (with the exception of redtea for some reason), so I don't see what would "confuse" him about that.suggestingtown do something. It read very weird to me. Still not at all sure why you keep saying that I had the same reads as you except redtea? I'm pretty sure I've explained all of my reads at this point so not sure why you are pointing out where we do/don't overlap as though it's interesting or confusing at all. Either way this is kind of irrelevant, you just seem to be weirdly misrepping a lot of stuff to me.- superbowl9
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This is what I'm talking about with the misreps, you do something completely abnormal and weird and then twist it as though it's a perfectly normal action. Like you're not wrong lol, but that's not really what is being talked about here...In post 898, Looker wrote:Why would I count anybody out?- superbowl9
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This is a reeeeeeeallly bad post. You're the second one to vote just because "counterwagons lol" and then jump righhht back on once the other wagon picks up steam. VERY ironically your logic in this post applies exactly to your actions, which are giving steam to this truth wagon (which is starting to look more and more just like an easy ML option to me).In post 905, Titus wrote:I'm debating getting off the Looker wagon and onto Truth. For Truth to be town, then both ICs must be agency captured. The looker wagon gaining steam raises concerns. Particularly of a chkflip + Truth team.
If Looker is scum, it makes things more likely that Truth is scum as well. I can't see scum diverting from Truth onto Looker in an S v S setup.
VOTE: Truth
Also very tired of ppl using POE and shaky situational logic to justify hopping around to whichever slot is convenient for them (Looker using standoff POEs, Titus here, the worst). Do yall just not have reads?- superbowl9
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You're literally doing the thing that I have issue with
I'm saying people have been exploiting this type of situational analysis (poor phrasing here, idk how to express it maybe like data-driven stuff? I hope you get me) to steer their votes into comfortable locations.
So yes, while I don't have a problem with the Truth wagon (although I think we are STILL not having the right discourse about it as I highlighted in my truth post), I do have a problem with the way that people are justifying their truth votes.- superbowl9
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Did I ever say don't use POE at all lol? I'm saying when you use POE or some other such metric as your only justification for a vote or a read that's not good enough
Also that's not even PoE, those are people I want to observe for gameplay reasons (Titus because overkill was playing scummy, you and osuka because you've been hard to get out of null, and looker I made a post on). - superbowl9
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