Newbie 2019 | Beans In Places | Redados's Pokeball PT

[Redados]

WIFOM

Spoiler: 0 - An example

If you are unfamiliar with WIFOM or meta levels, which I doubt many here are, this is for you!

To illustrate a WIFOM scenario, here is an example using the common scenario of a scum player providing a read on a fellow scum member - each number represents a meta level a person can operate on.

• lvl 0 - Town read your partner in an attempt to keep them alive
  lvl 1 - Scum read your partner, anticipating that others will think you were operating from level 0. Thus, if you flip scum, your buddy will be cleared, as scum wants to townread their partner on the 0th level meta.
  lvl 2 - Town read your partner, anticipating that people would think you would want to distance from your partner by scum reading them using level 1 logic.
  lvl 3 - Scum read your partner, anticipating people thinking you are operating from level 2

And so on....

You can see that in this example, all even (or odd) meta levels lead to the same outcomes - this happens with binary scenarios (i.e. the wine can be placed in front of either you or me), but gets more complicated with non-binary choices, such as rock-paper-scissors.

Actually Important Stuff

A last area of note is that every action taken by any player is *technically* within the framework of WIFOM. It is, however, quite pedantic and useless to say that level 0 play or argumentation exists within some WIFOM framework, hence why WIFOM only has a place when higher levels of meta are brought into play/discussion. The only useful place lvl 0 has in WIFOM discussions is as an alternative to a proposed higher level argument or strategy.

I am posting this because for the purpose of this analysis, I am going to be referring to the levels of WIFOM.

Assuming 100% Level Zero

, anyone who voted for Word321 is town. The two people that did not vote for Word321 are scum candidates.

Pre-cleared:

GeniusGamer
SJReaver

Town:
T-Bone
Redados
ItalianoVD
ShellyC

Scum candidates:
MiniMegabyte
Porkens

Assuming level 0

the two options for remaining scum are Porkens and MiniMegabyte. Porkens did not vote for Word321. However, they did post during twilight that they were waiting to hear a response from Word. This is pretty normal behavior; before elimination it is good form to wait for the player to flip or make a defense. It is sketchy to hammer without hearing a response. Because of this, I don't think that Porkens' lack of a vote was incredibly incriminating. Also, if Porkens were scum, then at level 0 they would not say what they did during Twilight. If they knew that Word321 was scum, they would have known those words would make them look bad.

MiniMegabyte hopped on Friday night (my time), unvoted GG, said that they would catch up later, and then they never did. They also said that they were not home. Again, I also don't think that this is particularly incriminating in itself.

Let's go into the level 1 options for WIFOM.

T-Bone - T-Bone parked his vote on Micc/Word321 in the first post. Then, he kept it the WHOLE day. He also kept pushing the slot pretty consistently. For this to be WIFOM level one... man. I really doubt it. It would have been very easy for T-Bone to have hopped onto the GeniusGamer or ShellyC wagons and arouse zero suspicion. If this doesn't completely clear him... I think it comes pretty close unless I'm missing something.

Redados - Before I changed my vote, SJReaver had declared intent to hammer on ShellyC. My action singlehandedly meant that Word321 was eliminated instead of ShellyC. If I were scum, I would have just sat there and done nothing for the next hour and let ShellyC be lynched. This could be super next-level WIFOM but I hope you guys see that in combination with how I've been playing, this looks very good for me. I was very very relieved when I saw that Word321 was mafia. That was a weight off my chest.

ItalianoVD - Italiano hammered before Word321 had a chance to respond. This would have looked really scummy if Word hadn't been scum. But he was. So on level 0, this looks really good for Italiano. Some level 1 possibilities - maybe Italiano and Word were daytalking and Word told Italiano to hammer him. They both would have known that it would have looked really good for Italiano.

ShellyC - ShellyC's vote doesn't actually tell us anything. Her vote was a vote of self-preservation to the other leading wagon. Sure, at level zero she wouldn't have voted for the other mafia but it's not too much of a stretch to imagine her at level one here.

--

Above are the possibilities. Below are my actual opinions and thoughts.

--

I think that me, T-Bone, and Italiano are town (obviously I know that SJReaver and GeniusGamer are town too).
I think that the scum lies within Porkens, MiniMegabyte, and ShellyC.
I think that Porkens' play was at level 0 and that everything was above board (although I want to go back and look at their interactions with GeniusGamer).
I was moved by ShellyC's posts when she was at E-1, enough to change my vote off of her. I stand by that.
I think that MiniMegabyte is the last member of the mafia.

Read list:

Redados
T-Bone
ItalianoVF
SJReaver
GeniusGamer

Porkens
ShellyC
MiniMegabyte

VOTE: MiniMegabyte

[Redados]

Newbie 2014:

As a note trying to find a "meta" in mafia is one of the worst ideas ever imo. For very new players it's a good idea but I've seen countless games get loss because (x) plays town this way, or (y) is scum that way. Anyone with half a brain cell would tend to work their gameplay around and attempt to use that

This seems like an overreaction to me overall. Why not address the accusation head on, instead of discrediting the line of inquiry? I’m not going to get into the meta of meta right now, but I’ll just say this: The Meta is Real.

Newbie 2019 post 365:

"Lots of people say they do it I personally don’t have the patience for it"

-

These don't inherently contradict each other but they're still pretty different nonetheless...

[Redados]

Porkens was town but he was killed night one. Plus Day One was unnaturally short. I learned nothing from that game other than that town!Porkens plays the same as current Porkens initially in this Newbie game vs that newbie game.

[Redados]

I'm reading Newbie 2016. Porkens replaced in at like L-1. His speech patterns are different. He's saying cookie and demerit and it feels like a different tone than what he's doing in the current game. That being said, he's still doing questions and reads like he is in the current game. It's cool to see Porkens with their back against the wall!

[Redados]

WIFOM

Spoiler: 0 - An example

If you are unfamiliar with WIFOM or meta levels, which I doubt many here are, this is for you!

To illustrate a WIFOM scenario, here is an example using the common scenario of a scum player providing a read on a fellow scum member - each number represents a meta level a person can operate on.

• lvl 0 - Town read your partner in an attempt to keep them alive
  lvl 1 - Scum read your partner, anticipating that others will think you were operating from level 0. Thus, if you flip scum, your buddy will be cleared, as scum wants to townread their partner on the 0th level meta.
  lvl 2 - Town read your partner, anticipating that people would think you would want to distance from your partner by scum reading them using level 1 logic.
  lvl 3 - Scum read your partner, anticipating people thinking you are operating from level 2

And so on....

You can see that in this example, all even (or odd) meta levels lead to the same outcomes - this happens with binary scenarios (i.e. the wine can be placed in front of either you or me), but gets more complicated with non-binary choices, such as rock-paper-scissors.

Actually Important Stuff

A last area of note is that every action taken by any player is *technically* within the framework of WIFOM. It is, however, quite pedantic and useless to say that level 0 play or argumentation exists within some WIFOM framework, hence why WIFOM only has a place when higher levels of meta are brought into play/discussion. The only useful place lvl 0 has in WIFOM discussions is as an alternative to a proposed higher level argument or strategy.

I am posting this because for the purpose of this analysis, I am going to be referring to the levels of WIFOM.

Assuming 100% Level Zero

, anyone who voted for Word321 is town. The two people that did not vote for Word321 are scum candidates.

Pre-cleared:

GeniusGamer
SJReaver

Town:
T-Bone
Redados
ItalianoVD
ShellyC

Scum candidates:
MiniMegabyte
Porkens

Assuming level 0

the two options for remaining scum are Porkens and MiniMegabyte. Porkens did not vote for Word321. However, they did post during twilight that they were waiting to hear a response from Word. This is pretty normal behavior; before elimination it is good form to wait for the player to flip or make a defense. It is sketchy to hammer without hearing a response. Because of this, I don't think that Porkens' lack of a vote was incredibly incriminating. Also, if Porkens were scum, then at level 0 they would not say what they did during Twilight. If they knew that Word321 was scum, they would have known those words would make them look bad.

MiniMegabyte hopped on Friday night (my time), unvoted GG, said that they would catch up later, and then they never did. They also said that they were not home. Again, I also don't think that this is particularly incriminating in itself.

Let's go into the level 1 options for WIFOM.

T-Bone - T-Bone parked his vote on Micc/Word321 in the first post. Then, he kept it the WHOLE day. He also kept pushing the slot pretty consistently. For this to be WIFOM level one... man. I really doubt it. It would have been very easy for T-Bone to have hopped onto the GeniusGamer or ShellyC wagons and arouse zero suspicion. If this doesn't completely clear him... I think it comes pretty close unless I'm missing something.

Redados - Before I changed my vote, SJReaver had declared intent to hammer on ShellyC. My action singlehandedly meant that Word321 was eliminated instead of ShellyC. If I were scum, I would have just sat there and done nothing for the next hour and let ShellyC be lynched. This could be super next-level WIFOM but I hope you guys see that in combination with how I've been playing, this looks very good for me. I was very very relieved when I saw that Word321 was mafia. That was a weight off my chest.

ItalianoVD - Italiano hammered before Word321 had a chance to respond. This would have looked really scummy if Word hadn't been scum. But he was. So on level 0, this looks really good for Italiano. Some level 1 possibilities - maybe Italiano and Word were daytalking and Word told Italiano to hammer him. They both would have known that it would have looked really good for Italiano. Also, it was pretty inevitable here that Word was going to get eliminated. So maybe this move doesn't clear Italiano after all?

ShellyC - ShellyC's vote doesn't actually tell us anything. Her vote was a vote of self-preservation to the other leading wagon. Sure, at level zero she wouldn't have voted for the other mafia but it's not too much of a stretch to imagine her at level one here.

--

Above are the possibilities. Below are my actual opinions and thoughts.

--

I think that me, T-Bone, and Italiano are town (obviously I know that SJReaver and GeniusGamer are town too).
I think that the scum lies within Porkens, MiniMegabyte, and ShellyC.
I think that Porkens' play was at level 0 and that everything was above board (although I want to go back and look at their interactions with GeniusGamer).
I was moved by ShellyC's posts when she was at E-1, enough to change my vote off of her. I stand by that.
I think that MiniMegabyte is the last member of the mafia.

Read list:

Redados
T-Bone
ItalianoVF
SJReaver
GeniusGamer

Porkens
ShellyC
MiniMegabyte

VOTE: MiniMegabyte

[Redados]

Still in Newbie 2016. Porkens saying "This is a good post." Just like this game! I don't know Porkens' alignment yet. It feels = current Porkens though.

5. Meta is real.
6. Play to the game you are in, but always keep the NEXT game in mind too.

Porkens got limmed and gave the above advice.

HE WAS A VANILLA TOWNIE

I continue to learn nothing. If I had to guess Porken's current alignment based off of meta, I would guess town.

[Redados]

I am reading Porkens' Micro 943 (Treestump Game). Porkens is scum in this game. So far, he is playing much less aggressively.

Meta Analysis of Porkens (Post 337):

"I was curious if Pork doing a "Oh no pls dont kill me im town" thing is AI for him

Pork scumgames
.viewtopic.php?f=54&t=77441 - Survived to end (Basically just calls people scum and votes sometimes)
viewtopic.php?f=54&t=77242 - Survived to end (Does basically nothing but vote people, tell ppl to not lurk, tell people to vote for X. Check post 2772, his scumbuddy says "Dude you're getting lynched if i ever see u play like this again.)
viewtopic.php?f=54&t=77310 - Lynched D1 (Mostly just jokes around, doesn't scumhunt. Selfhammers)
Pork towngames
.viewtopic.php?f=84&t=79600 - Lynched D1 (tunnels one person until 164. pleas for his life in 231, uses the words "I am town". as he dies, he wishes for town to lynch one particular player)
viewtopic.php?f=84&t=79728 Killed N1 (interestingly enough he calls people town at the beginning instead of scum He unvotes and switches around a lot. Giving up in 748?)

So regardless of alignment he usually accuses people of being scum pretty confidently. If i had to make a distinction, i'd say he comes across as more confident in the scum games in general. He does more accusations and votes in them, in the town games i want to say he has a bit more uncertainty

In the one town game where he gets lynched d1 that I found, he does pull the "please no im town" card, although he didn't vote someone in that post"

What's funny is that Porkens is scum this game

[Redados]

Naked early reads seems like a Town!Porkens kind of thing to do, according to Conspire/Cosmic. But Porkens didn't really do anything but just question in push in current game.

Porkens and his partner did mafia theater where they went at each other a bit.

Porkens didn't really scumhunt as scum.

Interesting Porkens quote from post #949:
"Some of you may think I’m scum. This is natural - often I am misread as scum because of my posting style. I do most of my thinking in my head, rather than in the thread, and find it combersome to explain myself in words. I don’t consider how what I say makes me look. I suspect that contributes to me being misread, as well as my avatar, which, through experimentation and observation, I have learned is a significant factor."

[Redados]

I'm town-tunneling pretty hard on Italiano. If he is scum, it will blow my mind. Not sure I can force my brain to go in that direction.

[Redados]

We should have known Micc was scum by how he spelled "manner" in post 234

[Redados]

ItalianoVD's avatar bothers me lol

[Redados]

Mini might be ropebait.

[Redados]

Shelly says in 261:

"When looking at ISO, Porkens' only comment on Micc has been how he's been playing in a "protown" way. He doesn't even include Micc in his reads. For an SE, this is quite an overlook. This could be a potential partnership."

[Redados]

Shelly's post 262 is a point towards her if she was scum with Micc. It was either geniune or Micc wrote it, imo

Post 293:

Micc -
32 - feels ItalianoVD’s posting is harmful
234 - comments on how Shelly’s pushed haven’t been useful, comments on N0bleNoob possibly being scum, comments on Mini misrepresenting her contributions to the game, says ItalianoVD feels town, says he doesn’t feel that Redados’ push was justified, says GeniusGamer was not really memorable, says that T-Bone’s actions don’t seem town-like.

If we read these at level zero, that means that ShellyC, NobleNoob, Redaos, GeniusGamer, and T-Bone are cleared.
It means that Italiano could be town.
He doesn't say anything about Mini or Porkens

[Redados]

Shelly 277 - gives scumread on Micc
ItalianoVD 129 - says Micc seemed like town
Porkens - 208 - says Micc seemed town-like
T-Bone 264 & 291 - thinks Micc is mafia

Before post 293 did not give opinion on Micc:
NobleNoob
MiniMegabyte
Redados
GeniusGamer

[Redados]

I'm excited to post some of these thoughts in the main thread!!! Night is over but no mod post yet I must admit that I am refreshing the thread over and over!

[Redados]

Post 389 by SJReaver was amazing. Just gold. If he dies then RIP

[Redados]

I'm excited to post some of these thoughts in the main thread!!! Night is over but no mod post yet I must admit that I am refreshing the thread over and over!

One bean two bean three bean four has been posting and I'm just hitting refresh over and over again!!!!

[Redados]

ItalianoVD, if you happen to read this after the game, please change your avatar to be stationary lol

[Redados]

"Meta is trash" according to T-Bone. I don't expect to read the games and then deduce Italiano's alignment. I hope to just get some extra information and hopefully share it with everyone so we can make an informed decision.

Site meta on WeBL is totally different, now I see why Italiano voted for me after I posted a reads list like three hours into the game. There were like no reads lists on day one of Italiano's scum game.

Scum!Italiano hedged his bets, "I could be wrong but..." "even if he is a villager I'm still happy with my voting choice" etc

He is known as a good player on the forum.

Scum!Italiano actively pushed for a mislynch on Day 1.

[Redados]

What a weird meta. The roleplaying and the language style is so strange. It's definitely different than mafiascum.

[Redados]

Meta is so different that I'm not sure that I can learn anything by reading these games.

[Redados]

One comment someone else made: "when hes a wolf he doesnt try to make enemies and tries to uncle tom his way thru by making everyone his buddy". From reading both linked games I'm not 100% sure if I agree.

Another comment, "I've always been 50/50 about italiano in every game I've played, he's always the same regardless of role, very hard to read, always worth a seer check"

Italiano is a completely different poster on WeBL vs MS.

In fairness, here's my most recent completed game (lol): https://pokegym.net/community/index.php ... 4/page-131

Italiano - your day three gambit LOL town!Italiano fakeclaimed seer and then immediately led a successful lim on the real seer lmao and then DIDN'T GET IMMEDIATELY LIMMED lmao. I'm literally chuckling

[Redados]

"Meta is trash" according to T-Bone. I don't expect to read the games and then deduce Italiano's alignment. I hope to just get some extra information and hopefully share it with everyone so we can make an informed decision.

Site meta on WeBL is totally different, now I see why Italiano voted for me after I posted a reads list like three hours into the game. There were like no reads lists on day one of Italiano's scum game.

Scum!Italiano hedged his bets, "I could be wrong but..." "even if he is a villager I'm still happy with my voting choice" etc

He is known as a good player on the forum.

Scum!Italiano actively pushed for a mislynch on Day 1.

What a weird meta. The roleplaying and the language style is so strange. It's definitely different than mafiascum. The meta is so different that I'm not sure that I can learn anything by reading these games.

One comment someone else made: "when hes a wolf he doesnt try to make enemies and tries to uncle tom his way thru by making everyone his buddy". From reading both linked games I'm not 100% sure if I agree.

Another comment, "I've always been 50/50 about italiano in every game I've played, he's always the same regardless of role, very hard to read, always worth a seer check"

Italiano is a completely different poster on WeBL vs MS.

In fairness, here's my most recent completed game (lol): https://pokegym.net/community/index.php ... 4/page-131

Italiano - your day three gambit LOL town!Italiano fakeclaimed seer and then immediately led a successful lim on the real seer lmao and then DIDN'T GET IMMEDIATELY LIMMED lmao. I'm literally chuckling

I'm done reading the games. AWFUL gambit Italiano hahahaha. Geez. I'm feeling Italiano as town but can't point to a specific thing that makes me feel that way.