Newbie 2023 - Hedgehogs - Day 3

[Ouroel]

AFK tracker

VOTES

Bellaphant - not science
notscience - the bulge
Clarity - Andrevmb
WaltertheDunce - clarity
Andrevmb - me

HAVE NOT VOTED YET:

happiJS
jankofan
the bulge

VOTE: happiJS

Probability estimations:

mafia + roles are most likely

happiJS
jankofan
the bulge

[Ouroel]

oh there is a second page already

[Ouroel]

Gawd damnit im used to salem meta where AFK hunting works 100% of the time.

welp there goes all my tricks

[Ouroel]

man i remember the good times. while playing a town killing role, i can claim town cop and vote someone up instantly and his reaction will tell me EXACTLY if he is town or mafia. then either town lynches him and goes "wait WTF" or I get lynched and reported.

good times.

[Ouroel]

favourite role has always been TKs in salem, that way if they end up not lynching I will just shoot him and he will turn out to be Godfather/Mafia member/whatever. then Town was always like "WTF this troll was right"

honestly, the only thing different about this game would be the vastly lowered number of power roles. i guess that creates an atmosphere of suspense around power roles, but then I don't feel bad exposing them in salem cause power roles and mafia behaviour overlaps a lot over there. i guess the replace feature would probably help, and I don't know if this is operating on a higher ELO than Salem and their savant towns.

it's the weirdest thing ever. in ToS the optimal strat (for winning one game) is to be as obnoxious and abrasive as a town killing (esp. town jailor, who has an execute) and just shoot the guy when he makes ONE mistake. It gets you reported though.

[Ouroel]

Sometimes finding a pr is useful, but the priority is finding someone from their reads and interactions. Im.also weird and like to read pages backwards, as it's easier to see any weird jumps of logic/interactions/reads.

Welp, you won't like me then. I'm clinically insane and relies entirely on gut feeling to lynch guys.

[Ouroel]

wow this game is 5 site SEs, 1 pretty experienced MS newb and 3 players with decent offsite experience

hardly really a newbie, eh?

My offsite experience is basically trolling in Town of Salem and somehow finding all mafia while being an asshat, works 70% of the time. Then I get banned for being too anti-PC.

[Ouroel]

Pretty much h the only read I have is a townread on clarity

with stupid max. townie games, a townread indicates scum assuming a new/other meta/metagame player. Esp this early with 0 concrete data, only personalities. Clarity's probably too good to be true.
VOTE: Clarity
Also, good to see people finally not being AFK. Too bad I can't do the good ol' D1 fake jester cause of daystart D:

[Ouroel]

*can indicate

[Ouroel]

I'm the guy who plays vig and just go BLAM BLAM n2 and oops there's no more maf.

There's actually a ludicrously overpowered Jailor strat in Salem called the "Super Abrasive Jailor", where you insult the guy you jail with the absolute worst of words and then hold the EXE over his head if he don't post role and will. EZ win and EZ getting banned after carrying the game.

That was before Salem became a pay-to-play game though.

There's also the "Pretend Jester to Ward Off Maf" strat. You claim to be town cop/witch/whatever, zoom in on one target (you gotta choose well. Usually it's the AFKers who don't talk much) and then you demand role/will/everything. He will feel extra flustered. If he don't post role/will instantly, he's 90% evil. Then you shove him to the chopping block. Always attack never defend.

you think he's scummy? I don't get that vibe at all

I'm scummy in the traditional sense of the word, IRL am the guy who would piss off all sides of the political spectrum in the USA AND trigger everyone I talk to.

but how's your scumgame?

You do the exact same, but you must get Serial Killer n1. Claim he's mafia though.

[Ouroel]

Ouroel, you've talked a lot about your god-like ability to rxn test as TK in ToS but how's your scumgame?

I once won as Serial Killer by quite literally claiming Serial Killer on day 1 and saying that I will help town and that I will destroy the Mafia and the witch.

That's how ludicrous ToS is.

[Ouroel]

BTW we best keep clarity votes at 3, 2 before lethal. There's no trial in this game, which is honestly super damaging to my strat. There's exactly 2 more mafia. Any more votes for Clarity can and should be treated as Mafia trying to complete bandwagon.

[Ouroel]

not quickhammer. slow and steady hammer excused by being a new player etc etc. people have reaction times as long as 2 days here. lots of time for maf to make some stupid discussion before hammering.

[Ouroel]

Pretty much h the only read I have is a townread on clarity

with stupid max. townie games, a townread indicates scum assuming a new/other meta/metagame player. Esp this early with 0 concrete data, only personalities. Clarity's probably too good to be true.
VOTE: Clarity
Also, good to see people finally not being AFK. Too bad I can't do the good ol' D1 fake jester cause of daystart D:

Why not vote ns for the bad read, rather than clarity for having a fan?

Cause it's not a "bad read" per se...i mean, how do I explain - it's like some guy defending that nice lady over on the street that just happens to hide her evil nature by being nice...it's not a bad read, for a normie. I'm not a normie. We all know that most people are normies, who, when they see a nice woman giving matzo, they think they are nice people. I'm the guy who would immediately assume that the matzos are baked with children blood or something...I don't trust these kinda fakes, and this world, well, it has lots of fakes, you know. There are people whose entire lives are lived out being some kinda super-nice fakes, like those K-Pop idols and and all the other idols out there. When I see Japan, I don't see a "nice anime country". I see the nest of demons spawned out of Remphan's unholy orifice, spewing degenerate, corrupting media masked by their "nice" attitudes. I don't trust others, but I fully understand that there are people who would trust most things. I don't, though, but I understand that others do.

[Ouroel]

The townreads on Clarity were formed from the same premises, so joining the Clarity wagon over another is a progression that does not compute.

Mathematically, there is absolutely no reason to join a wagon over another, on D1, assuming full fakes. People can alter their posting frequencies, their tones, etc. Maf can take into account whatever they want. Due to low power role percentage, it becomes a cyclical meta game of rock-paper-scissors of people trying to metagame each other out.

But clarity's our only lead for now, and it's nice to see her talk.

[Ouroel]

I think spidey is town

I have absolutely no idea what to think of Nash. He follows almost perfect progression while simultaneously not being an SE. Working from the assumption that Nash is an experienced player, I am inclined to think that either he is mafia, or mafia will immediately put a nice bullet in his head the next night. He's way too good at the game. He actually plays it, which is more than can be said for most people.

Get a nice doctor for him, or jail him, or whatever. Keep him safe.

[Ouroel]

And then Nash, either accidentally or purposefully, tries to detract from his own skill by posting stuff like this:

Join me on IV guys, you will be rewarded with cat gifs

It's forced AF. I know you wanna play town-carry jester claim, but this is just bad town-carry jester.

[Ouroel]

I will say IV the thought has crossed my mind this ploy might just be Our’s way to escape the center of attention and get ignored

Jester-Jitsu 101 - Always act scummy AND hang scum, AS both town AND mafia. That way maf don't shoot you and town ignores you, AND you get your whatever target lynched as well. Modulating tone and such is important, though.

I play the exact same way every game as Town and Mafia and also Cereal Witch Killer. Good times in Town of Salem. Same strategy regardless of what side you are on.

[Ouroel]

You’ll probably find yourself on the bad end of multiple mislynches and vig shots that way but I digress

Part of the fun, part of the fun.

[Ouroel]

>not waiting for clarity to wake up first before switching vote

10/10 gameplay right there

[Ouroel]

Clarity's probably too good to be true.

What makes you say that? Can't I just be an experienced(ish) player who knows what she's doing... kind of... occasionally...

Your demeanor.

BTW we best keep clarity votes at 3, 2 before lethal. There's no trial in this game, which is honestly super damaging to my strat. There's exactly 2 more mafia. Any more votes for Clarity can and should be treated as Mafia trying to complete bandwagon.

I'm not getting lynched today. Anyway, if there's 2 mafia off me, wouldn't that make me town? Aren't you also assuming everyone on me is town?

On the off-chance that you are town.

[Ouroel]

EDIT: This is day 1. Assuming everyone on someone in a wagon against Clarity being "town" is honestly stupid, especially considering the fact that we have no power role information as of today, AND the fact that lynching someone within 1 discussion cycle is honestly stupid.

At this point I will demand role/will but then this isn't Salem and Vanilla Townie is the go-to claim, so role/will achieves literally nothing.

We have 2 mafia, 9 people to interrogate. Two power roles. We only have 4 lynches, assuming all fails. Since we don't have limits to number of trials, we should honestly cycle through everyone and at least interrogate 2 people before nightfall. Day lasts forever here, guys. Go use the entire Day 1.

If this was Town of Salem, as a fake cop, I would immediately claim that my target was framed and move on.

[Ouroel]

clarity is obvtown and none of the votes on her make sense

obvtown is literally the best reason to wagon.

[Ouroel]

otherwise you will be stuck in a psychological rut without a good wagon to clear it.

happened too many times for me to count

[Ouroel]

no, as in the town literally refuses to wagon someone cause of "being confirmed town"

[Ouroel]

Eh, I've had games where town thinks a literal Witch is town enough to warrant never lynching.

[Ouroel]

witch is neutral investigative who wins with evil. gets exact role.

[Ouroel]

witch is basically a free mafia member despite being technically neutral, though.

[Ouroel]

Eh, i've been confirmed town as mafia before

[Ouroel]

>Andresvmb, Nash, The Bulge, WaltertheDunce10 voted in

welp

Andresvmb and Nash seem fine, next on list is bulge

VOTE: bulge

[Ouroel]

I guess townpoints to andres? he could’ve just not pointed it out

>Not pointing it out
>Skipping out on free townpoints as maf

10/10 maf gameplan right there

[Ouroel]

Man the more I think about it, the more likely Clarity is to be mafia

VOTE: Clarity

Like there are all these people actually playing the game, then there is Clarity who did absolutely nothing

[Ouroel]

I esp. like IV/Nash/Walter. Their reads are nice and shows a level of information expected from town. Like they don't have weird insider information or anything like that.

[Ouroel]

On the other hand, there are some like Bellaphant who would casually waste precious day wagon time by unvoting. By unvoting, you are wasting your precious 7 day since you aren't wagoning, and thus interrogating someone.

[Ouroel]

I'm leaning towards Clarity/Bellaphant or maybe Clarity/Bulge mafia, mainly because both Bulge and Bellaphant are both low-analysis players but Clarity is just outright no-analysis.

[Ouroel]

I think you’re tunneling too hard and bella/bulge is a viable team or IV subbed in there imo

funny, i always tunnel fully and absolutely

[Ouroel]

I am less engaged than I should be: our and IV are just the types of posters I find hard to engage with.

A little too underengaged honestly. I too find IV/Nash especially hard to make judgements on, but I still at least try to.

but ns's reaction to me and convo with the bulge on this page (considering the last interaction they had where na thought tb was scum, and I've missed what changed)

You completely missed Bulge's conspicuous lack of engagement on his first post-wagon post?

[Ouroel]

we are all experienced enough to understand that activity and forming semi coherent reads “advances the game” and looks good so it feels like scum!us should be able to do that too and have at least as much incentive to do so

It's a lot harder to fake advance game as scum than it is to do so as town. Mainly because you have more information.

Town can literally say whatever the hell they want and it will feel genuine.

[Ouroel]

Alr, here's my "normal game town isn't stupid" reads:

IV: leaning scum
NS: leaning town
Bulge: leaning scum
Clarity: neutral
Nash: leaning scum
Walter: leaning scum
AndresVmb: leaning scum
Bellaphant: leaning scum

and here is my "this is a regular game of town of salem" reads:

Maf are Nash/Clarity

Game throwers who just made their free salem account are IV/Bulge/Bellaphant

Good town is notscience

Dumb town is literally everyone else

[Ouroel]

Reasoning: Nash/Clarity are basically how I would play if I was a mafia player in Town of Salem. Being the only competent town players in the game, period.

IV/Bulge/Bellaphant are absolutely notorious for having ultra-low information density in their posts. IV is especially notorious for that.

notscience is SE and my instincts would tell me that she isn't actually maf.

rest of you act like those town people who wagon then guilty someone the moment you hear "I AM SHERIFF X IS MAFIA!!!!!!!!!"

[Ouroel]

[quote="In [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12038175]I really don't like this post - the 'what you're supposed to do' part feels really shady to me, and the whole wifomish "here's what I'll do if I'm scum" thing feels off - why would you go into this detail as town?[/quote]
because he is new player seeking to metagame a notoriously hard to metagame game.

[Ouroel]

like when I look at IV's post, he almost never do the tearing down. he just shows his approval, or spills out his gut feelings. it's almost as if he is just completely disinterested....

but then again it's most likely normal new player behaviour.

sigh, the curse of daystart

[Ouroel]

The real problem is that my reads have a 40% chance to be wrong due to this low-information space that is known as a D1 newbie game. I'm thinking we should wagon Bulge or something
VOTE: bulge

[Ouroel]

a wagon is a wagon, and this entire town feels super scum to me. 7 days on the clock so might as well do a good wagon

[Ouroel]

Ok, so why presenting it as a new idea, was the first half of my question.

it's not new, but we have 7 days left and 7 more to interrogate. The faster we get to T-2 the faster we can pressure people.

[Ouroel]

Agrreed on the ouroel point
I agree, plus I think scum our would have scum chat to work out the meta instead of the game thread.
It is his attempt to understand how to read a different meta from tos.

>using scum thread for anything
>giving up on the psychological bonus that is convincing yourself that you are town
10/10 guys

[Ouroel]

NS, can you tell me the difference between your towngame and scumgame?

Ask bulge he’s one of those people that usually reads me pretty well

Typically activity levels and engagement. My only game since I’ve been back was picking a fight with kuribo.

Honestly, if you look at Bulge and look at his posts, you get the impression that he isn't really making an attempt to sus out maf. As of now, he has posted one-liners and jokes, and had not went all-out on the investigations.

We literally have 10 pages of posts and you are telling me that an SE can't find enough evidence to get someone?

I would have expected notscience's level of activity from you, honestly.

[Ouroel]

what's camping

[Ouroel]

>giving up on the psychological bonus that is convincing yourself that you are town

can you show me how to convince myself I'm town when I'm scum? if only I could do that I would be

scumread even more because apparently my towngame is scummier

towny all the time

you read role then you forget it after you sent the PM

[Ouroel]

so if NS says something that I think is dumb/forced for town!NS to think I should scumread him for it?

do you agree that in general scum!NS feels less engaged/lurky? would scum NS have such high activity and engage us this game as he's doing now?

what's your NS read this game?

1). Yes. Good tip regardless.
2). Scum typically lurks at either extremes of activity.
3). Town

I cant read ouriel right now. early on I thought he has to be town as scum isn't that...open, but his approach to wagons is off putting, as is his wanting to pressure -everyome- , which could be convenient for scum.

Scum stands more to lose from pressuring everyone. Unless you are relying on cop, pressuring is literally the only way to get information in the game. Also, relying on cop is stupid.

But lately I have been putting myself into shit positions on later days by giving out townreads with too low of a threshhold because it's hard for me to psychologically backtrack against an earlier townread I made. Then I just confuse myself on D2/D3 because I've townread everyone still alive to some degree

This is why I scumread everybody.

[Ouroel]

Tin foil hat theory - scum!Clarity found it hard to engage with the thread, so activity was a towntell for a fakeread off the top of her head.

The slot needs more pressure.

Clarity is about 3rd on my list now. It's a bit like the type of thing where we should literally tell the cop to go investigate or something, if this is salem

[Ouroel]

@ Ouroel
What changed in your mind from214 to 233 and 239 ?
Why is town now dumb from who you think is town then all town feel scummy?

Working from different assumptions of skill level. If this was high tier you would all be on the chopping block. If this is low tier half the game are trolls and the other half are no activity leavers and there is notscience who actually plays the damn game.

Good to see you actually playing the game. think you might be town.

[Ouroel]

and trolls are more town than no activity leavers

[Ouroel]

-Knowing that activity/engagement is a general towntell and thing you lack is one thing. ACTUALLY fixing it and ACTUALLY generating content quickly, coherently, and genuinely engaging based on that self-reflection knowledge is hard; harder for some than others. Like I know this is one thing that my scumgame lacks a lot (I also just suck at scum), but it doesn't mean that scum!me can just deliver the same confidence and "say whatever's on my mind" verbiage as town!me.
-So this is why I was curious of this and I don't think it's a bad question. If NS is sick enough to be aware of this meta AND bridge it effectively then that tells me a lot, and it also tells me a lot if he's like me and can't. Obviously Clarity hasn't flipped yet but let's just say she flipped scum; I think Nash's "theory" about scum!Clarity knowing about this activity/engagement towntell but actually finding it very difficult to genuinely interact shows parallels to what we're talking about.

That...actually explains a lot. Like why half your posts are weirdly laid back.

[Ouroel]

Being laid back is indicative of Scum because?

because town usually rush to find maf and are eager.

[Ouroel]

Why do you believe it is too early to have a hard stance?

It's D1. Personalities can be faked, lynches cannot.

[Ouroel]

Played town of Salem and was absolutely terrible at it.

Don't worry fam, the optimal strat is in ToS is being an antisemite and using your uber hitler powers to sus out mafia while spewing your antisemitism at them as jailior, then getting banned after carrying town as game-thrower.

[Ouroel]

i honestly can't tell what is what anymore. if this was salem I would rely entirely on guy who died n1 to see who is sus

e.g. if nash does not die he is maf, if notscience does not die then she is most likely maf, etc. etc.