Open 789: Two-Fold 2d3 [Game Over]

[Marashu]

Stealing post 1? VOTE: Menalque because he was clearly tryharding before getting a role PM.

[Marashu]

hi smile

This pings me.

[Marashu]

VOTE: Almost50

Hey marashu, you're mafia or werewolf this time?

With any luck, both of them will fall for the gambler's fallacy and NK me, effectively reducing NKs by 1.

Please god tell me that this entire PL is not on US time

Not in the US, but sharing a time zone with them.

[Marashu]

VOTE: Almost50

Hey marashu, you're mafia or werewolf this time?

With any luck, both of them will fall for the gambler's fallacy and NK me, effectively reducing NKs by 1.

I assume youre just playing along with Gypyx's joke but if not why do you think mafia/werewolf would target the other faction this early?

Partly - it makes sense to me that scum would try to take each other down so they could control the game state, Prisoner's dilemma style. They could hunt PRs, but risk being picked off if the other team isn't doing that.

Considering they just spent 2 pages circle-jerking, I'm not sold.
That and I'm somehow at 5 out of 4, which is an issue.

vote: TripleHaven

Also teacher and marashu, with one of Dann or Menalque, not sure which since they're both spamming banter rn.

Mind explaining the read on teacher and myself?

VOTE: TripleHaven

I didn't like the way she came in (and I remember hearing a stat that new scum have a higher tendency to say a greeting in their first post). Haven't really felt anything towny since.

[Marashu]

Not in the US, but sharing a time zone with them.

Oh cool, north or south?

I missed this earlier. North.

Imma briefly step out of thread to give it a chance to breathe

I’m also interested in what the other slots who have been uninvolved in this are thinking, but those three are like those I’m most interested in hearing from

I'm thinking it's exhausing, first of all. But then when I try to make my way through it, here's where I'm standing. I don't really like how Mena came to his conclusion initially (I have my own thoughts on it that I am willing to share after the game concludes if people are still interested), but it got pressure going so I don't mind that. Hiraki's post 167 felt really, really defensive to me. I think it's more common for town to get really defensive that way than scum, from the games I've played in. The one thing that's keeping me from saying that it was a town post is that he was shading Mena right at the end of that post.

I want to review Dann's posts in the morning. I am too tired for this. But I'm not really liking how teacher is being so moderate on the subject, though that may be because of how toxic the last game I was in with him was.

Also I'm willing to let Marashu off the hook for the time being.
And Dann is trying to steal my shtick and it's very unbecoming.

What have I done that changed your mind? In fact, I don't think I ever got an answer for you to explain your thoughts on teacher, either.

pedit - oh, it looks like I missed the post right before (224). But I'd still like to hear dramonic's thoughts on teach and what has changed.

[Marashu]

Ugh, sorry, V/LA for probably the next day or so. I keep having complications with some oral surgery that was done 2 weeks ago.

[Marashu]

Why would you think that Dram, who is scummy, would give out correct reads?

I wouldn’t? But like I don’t see why he, regardless of alignment, would expect anyone to listen to him if he’s just asserting things?

Do you think scum would be scumhunting given that this is multiball? Or would they try to conceal their reads of the other team to force more town-exile?

I don't know how to read Hiraki. Does that make Hiraki null? I could just as easily see Hiraki as difficult town or as scum.

I agree with a lot of what dram has said, but I think I feel more strongly that teacher is scum than Dann is scum.

But what are the odds of rolling scum twice in a row?

I also think that Mena would have done more distancing between himself and Haven, so that team doesn't feel quite right either.

Unless I missed something, the order of getting rid of a scum team also matters. If we exile mafia D1 and werewolf D2, and there's no crossfire, then we can only have 1 mis-exile before being in a 2:1:1 scenario. (9:2:2 - 7:1:2 - 5:1:1 - 2:1:1) It's a lot more comfortable if we wipe out a team first. But on the other hand, what are the odds of scum always hitting 2 different town targets every night?

Other assorted reads and notes: I didn't mind Dunn's intro back on the first day, but unfortunately that's all we have from Dunn to work with.
teacher is voting Mena but is at least implying in 413 that Hiraki is anti-town. This is weird to me. @teach are you standing by your rvs vote?
I've got a slight TL on Testarossa - I'm not feeling any agenda behind these posts.
327 is what sold me on town!dram
I'm not really a fan of meta-diving, so I'm not going to be digging this up, but I feel like Mena's been looking at meta a lot this game, moreso than the one other game I played with Mena.

VOTE: teacher

[Marashu]

I feel like Mena's been looking at meta a lot this game, moreso than the one other game I played with Mena.

Hi marashu, where do you think I’ve been looking a lot at meta this game?

Your initial read on Hiraki was meta, but because that has been redacted so is this one. 394 has you looking at meta to invalidate reads. I thought I remembered more, but the only other case is with teacher, which teacher brought up first. So I take it back - I remember being surprised at 394 and also remembered your read on Hiraki, which is probably why I felt that way.

PEdit - @Gamma, 271

[Marashu]

Gamma, why isn't it towny to sort down to a known number of scum?

[Marashu]

I agree with a lot of what dram has said, but I think I feel more strongly that teacher is scum than Dann is scum.

Originally I felt we were getting similar vibes regarding teacher in the beginning with his moderate attitude, at least from your first bigger post. I am rather leaning town there atm, what is it that makes you scumreading teacher?

And yeah, what does it mean to you that Mena seems more meta focussed here? (although I think a lot of it was just site meta talk) Do you think it's alignment-indicative in comparision to your last game with him?

His posts feel pretty dispassionate, like he's trying to be a mediator to appear engaged. By this I mean he's not really taking any hard stances unless called on. 221 is where I started getting scum vibes. 380 doesn't come from a town mindset, in my opinion, and I haven't really seen anything that's getting me to see this slot as town.

I was wrong about Mena being more meta focused. The couple instances I mentioned in 512 just left a strong impression. As for it being AI, I thought it was kinda scummy, especially trying to dismiss dram's reads not because they stand up within context of this game but because of factors outside of the game. So I guess it's more what he was trying to do with the meta rather than the focus itself that I found suspect.

[Marashu]

Mara, I’m trying to explain why I think dram is so wrong if town. Fmpov (knowing I’m town) dram has been pushing conftown, and three of my top townreads. My explanations for that are either (1) he’s scum (2) he’s incompetent (3) something else.

I started to come round to him not being scum after talking to Dann about it, which meant he’s either incompetent or something else is at play. He’s certainly overconfident and abrasive, but neither of those things necessarily implies incompetence. I know it’s a factor (I can pull posts if you like) that players returning to the site often struggle to perform as they once did because the meta *has* changed. That’s a fact, not my opinion. You can find multiple people talking about how it’s changed and to an extent in what ways if you look at what people who have been around through the transition say.

So given that why is it scummy for me to be using meta to explain why I think dram has his reads ass-backwards instead as opposed to the natural response for town!me after coming round to a position of dram!town?

Hm, ok. Yeah. That makes sense.

[Marashu]

A bunch of work meetings - expect a reply in about 2h

[Marashu]

Way overconfident scumread on me from way too little information. I don’t think it’s plausible that he had a scumread that strong based on what I’d posted.

I've seen this more from town than scum, though.

When asked to justify it, he said that it was because I’d given a “forced” readslist. When it was pointed out that this was a joke and that that had already been explained, he doubled down on it being “forced” and that it “wasn’t funny”.

The fact that it was a joke was apparent to me, but because I never played with him before I thought it wasn't apparent to him. Also didn't feel like a hard push.

Proceeded to try to dismiss the scumreads on his slot with a load of AtE and lolcatting.

I can see what you're getting at here, and this might be why I was having a hard time reading him.

Doesn’t seem to have any organic reads on the rest of the PL which is in stark contrast to his recent completed game here where he had a full readslist in by post 135 and was also just tonally completely different in how he entered the game and engaged with the other players, showing much more good faith and interest in cooperation.

[/quote]
I had to ISO him on to review this point. The thing I really don't get is why town!Hiraki would shift the vote over to TH here, or rather, I kinda do get why town!Hiraki does this but I don't know why town!Hiraki doesn't pursue what I see. I can see why scum!Hiraki would go for TH. And I mean, he's definitely been engaging with the PL, but mostly to say a) Mena is scum, or b) he is not scum.

I still prefer teach for D1, but I'm open for Hiraki (and I think I prefer Hiraki over TH right this moment).

Also, @Mena it would be helpful to me if you answer my question in 415 about your take on scum play in multiball.

[Marashu]

His posts feel pretty dispassionate, like he's trying to be a mediator to appear engaged. By this I mean he's not really taking any hard stances unless called on. 221 is where I started getting scum vibes. 380 doesn't come from a town mindset, in my opinion,

Let's chat.

1. What made the game unfun was toxicity in past games, and Im naturally conflict resistant (hence the job), so I get the mediator thing. But why is that anti-town?

2. Presuming your answer is that Im not really taking any hard stances, Id say I have more pronounced reads than like 1/2 the PL. Ive expressed views on Mena, Hiraki, Umlaut, Dram, DannFlor, and Dunn -- the last four without being expressly called to do so. Do you disagree? For what its worth, Im also a townlean on Testa and a null-scum on you, but having trouble sorting out your low-content from VCA and otherwise.

3. Why doesnt 380 come from a town mindset? That comment makes like no sense to me.

His posts feel pretty dispassionate, like he's trying to be a mediator to appear engaged. By this I mean he's not really taking any hard stances unless called on. 221 is where I started getting scum vibes. 380 doesn't come from a town mindset, in my opinion, and I haven't really seen anything that's getting me to see this slot as town.

Whats scummy in 221 and why is teacher playing as a mediator scummy to you?

Also, what about 380 makes you say it doesn’t come from a town mindset?

1) Fair. I tend to avoid conflict where I can so I can understand this. In this case it comes across as scummy because it looks like a way to work from the sidelines. 221 to me felt like you were trying to appeal to Hiraki so you could look like you are making efforts to understand while standing at the sideline without needing to commit, and that it didn't really matter what Hiraki would say in response. (To be very clear, it's the first half of 221 that I think is scummy) But now that I'm looking, I see that you followed up on that very point in 294, and it could just be that you were trying to prevent this game from degrading into the last one I was in with you (I honestly don't blame you for leaving, so no worries on that front).

2) I know where you stand on Mena and Hiraki and Dram. I think I understand where you stand with Dann (you felt resonance with him during your questioning of Hiraki, causing a TR)? Your read on Umlaut I feel is a bit vague, as it wasn't a strong TL and has weakened since (but Umlaut is out now so hopefully Bell will be more readable?) I can tell your stance on Dunn because of your vote, but your reasoning is vague - is this because you want to try to engage with someone who is not engaging, like your stance in 733? Or did you notice anything scummy in what Dunn has posted?

3) This one's easy for me to answer. I don't get why drawing attention to a potential PR is in town's best interest, if someone behaves a certain way as town PR.

[Marashu]

UNVOTE:

I've been missing too many points, and my reads are out of date. I'm going to give this game a thorough re-read in the morning and sort out where my head is at.

[Marashu]

"I think I've read enough. I'm much closer to understanding the votes attracted to me. What an awful decision, to possess this body. Oh well."

But more importantly to help those of us who are still evaluating you, would you say you are closer to understanding the evil in the town?

[Marashu]

(I've re-read the thread, now I'm just digesting it)

[Marashu]

VOTE: Bell - I'm getting some town pings, but I'm also getting some scum pings from this slot. I want pressure here to help sort. I don't know if it's because he's V/LA until Monday, but a lot of his posts feel like fluff and don't really contribute anything. Also not a fan of his intent to park a vote on Hiraki and not move it for the rest of D1.

[Marashu]

VOTE: Bell - I'm getting some town pings, but I'm also getting some scum pings from this slot. I want pressure here to help sort. I don't know if it's because he's V/LA until Monday, but a lot of his posts feel like fluff and don't really contribute anything. Also not a fan of his intent to park a vote on Hiraki and not move it for the rest of D1.

Jake turned his focus away from the marvelous word artist that was Hiraki, to the small-spoken Marashu.

"My, this post feels like you are uncertain about your vote. Sir Marashu, could you elaborate on anything that you see as evil or good from Sir Bell?"

I can in roughly an hour. Until then, can you please address 927?

[Marashu]

"My, this post feels like you are uncertain about your vote. Sir Marashu, could you elaborate on anything that you see as evil or good from Sir Bell?"

You're right that I'm uncertain, and I'm hoping that pressure will make it more clear. So here are my reasons for why it's unclear:
I've had a general gut scum ping that I cannot explain right now since he entered the game. But besides that, the following are posts that I find are needlessly clarifying, fluff, or don't really contribute anything besides showing that they are participating in the current discussion:
748
756, 757, and to a lesser extend 760
764
786
834
835
853
860
869
878
882
890, 892 (these posts don't make sense to me in their context)
896, 898 - relevant to discussion with Mena but immaterial
903
907

I also don't like the inflexibility displayed in 879

The town feelings I get from this slot come from:
(as Umlaut) - 197 and 200, and a general towny feel from Umlaut
Trying to read game state in 752
865 largely in relation to 939
The transition from 752 to 768 is plausible
883

[Marashu]

None of those links work.


Hi Marashu, why are you leading with “I want to pressure Bell to see if he’s town or not”
To everyone? Including me.

Ugh. So some of them have whitespace after the number, which breaks the links. The ones where the underline doesn't stretch past the number should work.

As for why, because I'm declaring my intention.

[Marashu]

And why are you declaring your intention?

Both so people can see my thought process and to air it out to help me evaluate it, in case there is something I'm either overlooking or reading too deeply into.

Take it as a request to direct your attention there so I can see if i’m off base with my read of him then.

How is this different than what I said?

And not blind. I actually think Maru is definitely within his scum register (though I’m not sure he has a town register)

So you should at least be somewhat aware that my town game would be underdeveloped compared to my scum game.

VOTE: Bell - I'm getting some town pings, but I'm also getting some scum pings from this slot. I want pressure here to help sort. I don't know if it's because he's V/LA until Monday, but a lot of his posts feel like fluff and don't really contribute anything. Also not a fan of his intent to park a vote on Hiraki and not move it for the rest of D1.

What is your read on Hiraki? I don't really see a definitive stance by you on him

I'm curious why you'd be bothered by a vote on someone you haven't really sorted yet

Hiraki's tough to read, but my impressions are the AtE does not really sit well with me. That said, I really agree with 925. It could be SvS (different teams - I don't think they're the same team) or maybe it isn't, but it at the very least was more helpful to town than I feel Jake has been.

Basically, I saw that we had a week left. I had a slot that I was having a hard time with. I was choosing to use that time to try and work out that slot. If we'd rather try to end the day early and use the flip to get information, then that's also worthwhile.

VOTE: Jake - E-1

[Marashu]

If we'd rather try to end the day early and use the flip to get information, then that's also worthwhile.

What informationdo you think we're going to get out of the flip that's worth ending the day early?

See:

well like, ur alignment would show bro, so we'd know if you were town or scum

So besides the advantage of knowing whether we hit scum or not (and I do think there's a decent chance of this slot flipping scum), having a wagon to analyze, and NKs, because this is multiball if we can end the day before the scum teams have things sorted, doesn't that mean there's a better chance they hit the other team rather than town? I remember hearing that it's usually to town's benefit to have a shorter D1, and 2 of the 3 games where I lost as scum had D1 end early, if I recall correctly. I'd imagine that especially applies in multiball.

Marashu, did you work anything out about Bell?

Leaning town a bit more than I was before. I think his posts have been a bit better over the last couple days.

yeah but then we'd like, not have jake's alignment and that seems like a pretty big disadvantage, idk

"What advantage would executing me give you, that you would not get from executing Penguin? You may not get my true self, but you'll get Penguin's. Why is mine more important than theirs?"

You're a bit more likely to be lying about your innocence. That said, Gypyx wasn't terribly towny in those few posts, and PP's sheep onto me didn't look terribly good either, so there's also a fair chance of hitting scum there.

I see, what do you think of the votes on you?

I don't see my stance as terribly scummy, so the speed at which it filled is a bit confusing. If it is a counterwagon to get attention away from Jake and if Jake is scum, then it could be that one of {Dannflor, teacher, PenguinPower, Menalque} is scumbuddy with Jake. Slightly less likely is, if the other scum team suspects Jake and they want to keep Jake around, they could also be trying to manipulate it. I'm not getting that feel from Dann or Mena. I also don't think teacher would manipulate this counter-wagon just to bus his partner with intent to hammer - if scum, I don't currently think Jake and teacher are on the same team. PP feels like the most suspicious vote and slot on me if there is scum on the wagon.

Not feeling the Marashu wagon too much, but at least I would be interested in him explaining his transition from teacher away after rereading the game and what information he is hoping to see in a Jake flip. (alignment aside)

Looking at alignment aside is tough, because the information differs depending on alignment. If he flips scum, then at least one person knew that he would flip scum and we'd be able to look for associations. If town, we get a good wagon to examine.

@teach I think Jake is at E-2 so I don't think a hammer is happening without help.

[Marashu]

porque no los dos?

I had to google this. :V

I agree with Dann that the lack of survivalism speaks a bit in Jake's favour. He is basically just rolling over.

However I am still not seeing anything that is changing my mind here objectively. Even after the replacement the slot looks pretty self-concerned, asking questions that aren't really leading anywhere to and no real attempts at sorting people (besides maybe Mena?). Was kind of hoping for more here.

I agree hard with this. He just keeps coming in, calling me and someone else, depending on the temperature I guess, scum and then going away. How do you honestly defend that slot? Because doing nothing isn't scummy? I've done this game before too. I don't get how I'm the one being called out for AtE when Jake is literally just coming in and moping about doing his witty ERP thing and then leaving.

Multiple people have asked him for reasons why he thinks myself and others are scum. They're still not here. The above just proves that he has no intentions of going further than stating something.

The quoted part sounds like defending Jake as town. You hard agree with it, but the tone from what you follow up with makes it sound like you're accusing them of at the very least being unhelpful town if not scum. So do you hard agree with the stance but have a different conclusion? Or do you think this is scum indicative?

See:

In post 1219, Menalque wrote:
well like, ur alignment would show bro, so we'd know if you were town or scum

So besides the advantage of knowing whether we hit scum or not (and I do think there's a decent chance of this slot flipping scum), having a wagon to analyze, and NKs, because this is multiball if we can end the day before the scum teams have things sorted, doesn't that mean there's a better chance they hit the other team rather than town? I remember hearing that it's usually to town's benefit to have a shorter D1, and 2 of the 3 games where I lost as scum had D1 end early, if I recall correctly. I'd imagine that especially applies in multiball.

u realise I was being entirely facetious when I wrote that, yes?

I think it looks kinda of bad for mara that he's trying to use something I wrote that was fundamentally a joke/obviously a terrible reason to support his vote here

Saved me the trouble of needing to write out the obvious part of my answer and go on to the rest of my reasoning, though.

UNVOTE:

I've been missing too many points, and my reads are out of date. I'm going to give this game a thorough re-read in the morning and sort out where my head is at.

I guess like

I think posts like this come from scum a lot. like they feel like they need to justify their absence a lot more than town normally do who like, if they have time to check in more typically use that time to do what sorting they can instead of just apologising

That's not an apology for absence. It's an apology for being wrong on too many counts. Like, I'd cite a post, and when I go back to defend my stance, re-reading the source came across as different from the first time, so I'd need to change my position. I had also not really assessed some slots (Umlaut/Bell, Gypyx, A50, Testarossa) so my reads being out of date was especially true for these slots. "Missing" is referring to accuracy in this post.

[Marashu]

I agree that if we weren't serious about eliminating Jake then we shouldn't have forced the claim. But I don't see how that stance leads to trying to start a push on teacher 75% of the way into D1. Why, specifically, don't you want the elim? All I know about your views on that slot is that you didn't think TH was all that scummy. There's a fair chance teacher is scum, but I also think there's a good chance that Jake is scum, and if we're wrong, then the scum teams have less to work with on N1.

[Marashu]

I don't think you're clear, but I also don't think you're the worst offender, and there are better places for me to be placing my focus. At the very least, I no longer think that your early position in the Mena/Hiraki discussion was scummy.

[Marashu]

So youre basing "there's a fair chance teacher is scum" on.....what, exactly?

Gut, mostly.

I don't think you're clear, but I also don't think you're the worst offender, and there are better places for me to be placing my focus. At the very least, I no longer think that your early position in the Mena/Hiraki discussion was scummy.

Well, who are you looking at?

I think Jake's a good wagon. Besides that, I spent time looking at Hiraki; that slot's starting to grow on me. I'm also looking at PP and Dunn. I keep looking at teach, but I think it's reaching the point where I need to stop; every time I start to suspect him of something new, I'll check back later and see that I'm being extra paranoid. The latest case was the intent to hammer. I was weirded out by that turn, but just today I noticed that he had stated a SL on that slot slightly earlier.

I seriously keep forgetting that Testarossa is in this game; I don't think I'm giving her slot the attention I should be.

[Marashu]

There’s always a benefit to fake claiming as scum to out a PR if you’re going down but equally a lot of players just don’t like the pressure of 1v1ing a PR or think it won’t be believable and so they claim VT, and then that can work sometimes due to WIFOM due to it being optimal to claim PR

What hiraki said is also valid as to why it’s somewhat +EV to just stick to eliminating that person after they claim VT

I lost a game not too long ago with marashu scum because I thought scum!him would claim PR and wifom’d myself off to flip a VT D1 instead

VT can be a decent fakeclaim if there's another wagon and you think you can talk your way out of the elim. My take on it is, it's a claim that doesn't really make being scum more or less likely, but following through on the elim benefits town in that it gives the anti-town factions less to work on (protecting PRs both from claiming and reducing scum process of elimination)

As for the game Mena mentioned, I only really won because I had an awesome partner - I was the D2 elim. Mena swapped out of that game late D1 as well, though - I know I'm not supposed to speculate, but I hope it's not something I said. :/

[Marashu]

3 pages in, obligatory gut reads: triplehaven likely town, menalque prob town (that feels wrong to say on a couple levels) Hiraki antitown, dannflor antitown but maybe not the same team. Dramonic not aligned with Hiraki... So maybe town.

I don't know where you're at in your catch-up, but would you mind explaining the Dann read?

[Marashu]

You want me to give my guess?

I can guess your guess, but I'd like to hear it from RCE first.

[Marashu]

Re: game state - Scum may be happy, but they may also be waiting for the other team to make a move? Also, there was a pretty big change in the sudden wagon to A50 (which I don't really understand - @Bell, you gave your reasons earlier. Did the conversation between Mena and A50 shape any of that, or is that an independent read?)

After this build-up, I'm hoping the "Chemist thing" lives up to its hype.

[Marashu]

Err assuming you're town as well then scum just... Don't want to lynch town today?

That's what I'm getting out of that. Also conflicts with the sentiment scum is content with the gamestate, what do you think of that stance A50?

What I get out of it is scum doesn't want to eliminate Jake. If Jake is scum, then it stands to reason his partner doesn't want to eliminate him. If Jake is town, it could be that scum just wants another claim. They might also be suspecting that Jake is part of the other scum team and don't want him removed yet, because scum don't know whether someone is town or part of the other scum team.

As for scum being content with the gamestate, I propose something different: 7/13 players have swapped out. It is very likely that at least one scum player has swapped out. I think it's possible that there's scum in a member who replaced in, who doesn't yet fully understand the game state and doesn't want to disrupt it for fear of standing out.

[Marashu]

You say clouded view. I say different perspective. I think town would be trying to look for a fresh take, and some of the people who have repped in have indeed done that.

[Marashu]

I'm Seer. Bell is werewolf.

VOTE: Bell

[Marashu]

Only half way mena. I kind of agree with Dann here.
Initial read has haven as townish again.
You seem like a carbon copy of all the games i’ve played with you.
I think this is a corner scum game. But I don’t think i’ve Seen you take pot shots there yet, why?

I checked him because it looked like he was softing my role here. It's why I said I had gutpings about him, but then I laid off when I realized if I pushed too hard, they might realize why and target me instead.

[Marashu]

I really don't think dramonic or teacher or Hiraki are Jake's partner.

[Marashu]

Aw. I wasn't.

Then count it up to caught for the wrong reasons.

[Marashu]

FWIW if you hadn't done that one specific thing, I was going to be checking Dannflor

[Marashu]

I wish yall could feel like I felt when we got the Jake flip.
I've got thoughts, but ill wait for everyone to chime in in case we have guiltoes
Edit: what teach said minus all the math

I honestly was hoping that Jake was werewolf so I'd be looking for his partner, so that the info I got wouldn't end up being us needing to find the other mafia but still getting 2 NK's tonight. I wish you could feel like I felt when D2 started.

[Marashu]

For what it’s worth, I’m pretty sure this game is about as near auto as it can get without actually being so. We don’t have any public set up information yet, but at 8:1:1 we have essentially two mis-eliminations, and those miseliminations are considerably less likely because

• theres a 60% chance (49/81) that 4 of those 8 are PRs who won’t be counterclaimed if they are run up.
  
• a 90% (77/81) chance that at least 3 are, and
  
• in all cases, including the remaining 10% of only two PRs, there is a substantial likelihood that the PRs can clear other towns.

I have some additional setup thoughts, but want to sleep on them before trying to write them out.

I don't think it's auto yet, but we're in a good place. We're getting scum again today. Worst case on D3 will be 7:1.

[Marashu]

What's the Bell wagon about?

The Bell wagon is about I'm Seer, I investigated Bell, and got guilty.

[Marashu]

Mass claim should happen tomorrow

I agree. Let's give mafia fewer targets and leave them guessing until D3, unless we have another guilty. There's value in waiting for everyone to chime in, but Bell is our Elim today.

[Marashu]

I think I see what you're saying, but depending on the setup, it might be more beneficial to scum for that to come out now. In the case of RB, they can NK one anti-mafia role and RB the other. In the case of goon, if it's a lone cop or lone jailkeeper, then they can claim a role that matches that setup (this can be mitigated by either of these roles claiming last). Even if we have 2 investigative roles that target the same person, that's 3 cleared town. If it's only one investigative role, then no coordination is necessary.

[Marashu]

@mod - If everyone agrees, could we have a fast N2?

[Marashu]

Unfortunate. He probably cleared someone who wasn't in his D2 suspect list on N1.

Massclaim?

[Marashu]

So last scum must be in {Hiraki, Almost50, Chemist1422} assuming no CC's, and not 2 goons with dramonic hardbussing partner right out the gate.

[Marashu]

Sorry, I'm still trying to process all this. If dram is retracting his doc claim and we are in column C, then that also means that the 2 people cleared by teach are not clear, correct? I want to make sure I'm not missing anything on that point.

[Marashu]

Decent chance this is right, but if it's wrong, could we look at chkflip/PP tomorrow?

[Marashu]

Right now I think I'm more partial to PP over chkflip - I wasn't a fan of gypyx, and I feel like the interaction between Jake and PP earlier vs how PP tries to maneuver away later is suspicious. But I'm also really having second thoughts about dram (which is annoying because dram was my top TR D1). The stunt to get rid of wifom? It really didn't.

No one said he knew that. We (myself and teacher) said it was bad play. STILL, it could not have come from Scum because if we were not in column C he would have been CC'd and eliminating both would have lost him the game. Now if he was the remaining Goon then he knew he wouldn't be CC'd, but then he would NOT have retracted the claim.

I don't agree with your conclusion that he wouldn't retract the statement. He did it after speculation started of being in Column C and it being a fakeclaim, so after a couple misexiles, I think it would have been tested, especially when I take the bullet instead of dram. With the retraction, it removes the target and justifies why dram would be alive later. And, like, right now the other mafia doesn't really need to do anything with the WIFOM that dram introduced. I can see how the gambit comes from town, but I also see how it comes from scum, and that's the problem. And I feel like the WIFOM will remain until we can resolve that slot, unless we actually catch the last scum.

[Marashu]

I'm pretty tired and should probably wait until morning to post this, but whatever. From what I understand, town!dram doesn't know the setup, therefore doesn't know if there is a PR. He claims doc to force a massclaim, with the intent to rescind his claim if someone CCs him. He also made the CC with the expectation that the table 2 PR would be Guardian and not Auditor. With a column A/B the hope was we'd have more info when he backs down, depending on what the PR brings to the table. In column C the move just brings to light that it's column C. But Dram, in this narrative what would the difference be between backing down because a real PR CC'd you and backing down because scum CC'd you?

The hole here is that the info he'd get is WIFOM to us because it would only a complete picture from his point of view, which he would have as mafia anyway.

[Marashu]

Hm. I just re-read Gamma's posts. There is some weird progression there - going from saying Mena townslipped to shading Mena in like 30 minutes, only really interacting with Jake to comment on grammar and format...

Also, I know each game is different, but in my last game where I was scum with PP, he really didn't help me as much as he helped steer away from jake in this game. I think I'm now more in favour of chkflip over PP. I think I would like to hear PP's thoughts on Dram and chkflip, though.

I'm suspicious of how easily we got to a {chkflip/PP} solve. But I also want to stay in Dunn's suspect list.

[Marashu]

you do not have my vote on a chkflip lynch FYI

Where's your head at, then?

[Marashu]

I re-read A50's ISO and that slot doesn't make sense to me as TH/Jake's partner. Likewise, after re-evaluating, I disagree with dram's play but I'm still landing in town!dram.

I was of the same opinion as dram, but now I am second guessing myself and am considering Hiraki! His "solve" is most bizarre that it makes more sense if he is sly scum. He knows it's quite unlikely that I/dram get eliminated today. The point of him declaring us two as his solve would be to wash his hands off from the miselimination about to happen on either Chk/PP, so that he appears like the one person smart enough to realize it was a miselimination, AND to guarantee the 4-players ME-Lo has all "other" surviving players pointing fingers at each other and never suspecting him.

Ok, but with the gamestate the way it is, why would agreeing with chk/PP bring suspicion onto Hiraki? Likewise, why is standing out like this not drawing attention and raising suspicions?

@Hiraki, why would Mena's ISO influence PP being scum? Mena's slot was town.

[Marashu]

Hadn't realized it'd been two days.

Someone fucking do something.

You said you were re-evaluating. What did you come up with?

[Marashu]

Let's say we're wrong today. 4 people left on D5 (I'm just gonna go out on a limb and say I won't be seeing D5). If scum!Hiraki, isn't it in his best interest if 2/3 of the town have a solve that doesn't include him? It just takes 2 people being wrong for scum to win in that case.

Or is this a case where, if 2 people are universally scumread, including by each other, then it's more likely that this cohesion is manipulated, and town should be looking elsewhere?

[Marashu]

No, after re-reading Jake's ISO I really don't see a case where Hiraki is Jake's partner. My POE right now has landed back into {PP, chkflip}. Jake and PP were defending each other quite a bit D1.

Jake never directly interacted with the chkflip slot, and only mentioned the slot a) saying it was null, and on the same line as (and after) Dunn in 1380, and b) putting gamma on the town side of null in the final read list where he was just scumreading anyone voting for him. TH also never directly interacted with Gamma. Gamma, in turn, tries to discredit and does a chainsaw defense against dram who is making a case for eliminating TH (481->525->528->538->545). Jake never interacted with chkflip because of when chkflip joined in so these associations are all with players who have subbed out, making it tougher to read. As Dunn pointed out, there is a bit of strange progression near the end.

On chkflip himself, 1893 feels like bragging. 1989 feels like fearmongering. I don't really like either of these from town!chkflip.

[Marashu]

Mar, lining up lynches is a scum tell y/n?

Depends on the context. In previous games I, as scum, have seen others, as town, do it and get called out for it. I can see why it can be a scumtell - only scum know if there will be a next day or not - but it's a fine line between lining up for an elimination and asserting a solve. Also, isn't pushing for no elim tomorrow the same deal?

If it helps with people's reads you're more than welcome to knock me off. We don't need too many questionables in limlo.

LAMIST

Ok, but with the gamestate the way it is, why would agreeing with chk/PP bring suspicion onto Hiraki? Likewise, why is standing out like this not drawing attention and raising suspicions?

I don't fully get the question (or rather.. I'm not sure I do, so please rephrase it if this is not what you're asking).

Q: Why would agreeing with chk/PP bring suspicion onto Hiraki?

A: I didn't say he was agreeing with them (and he is not, because -to my understanding- PP has Chk/Hiraki over A50/dram in his solve, and chk has PP/dram over A50/Hiraki). What i am saying is Hiraki -maybe- knows both PP/Chk are Town (because HE is the remaining Goon), and by declaring me/dram as his solve he is absolving himself of the miselimination about to fall on either of Chk/PP. he shoots you tonight and tomorrow he continues his push on me?dram while the survivor of Chk/PP pushes for dram/Hiraki; respectively. I should be on said survivor and so should dram (at least that's how it looked like back then), so he has a chance to quick!hammer once both I and dram had voted.

Sorry, I was unclear. Why would Hiraki agreeing with a {chk/PP} solve make him suspicious?

Q: Why is standing out like this not drawing attention and raising suspicions?

A: I am assuming you're asking about my changed stance?? If so, because I only considered Hiraki as a consequence to his odd PoE. I clearly had him down as Town earlier.

Why would Hiraki making a move against the {chk/PP} solve instead of sheeping it not draw attention?

PP also brought to attention the fact Hiraki also was against the Chemist Elimination. From my own PoV it was the Elimination that would end the game on the spot. I didn't even pay much attention to analyzing anything else at the time because i thought the game was over, so -in retrospect- it was an odd stance too.

I am not saying Hiraki is 100% Scum here (I always struggle to read him properly) but I am now thinking he very well could be.

Ok, fair. But I'm also having a hard time seeing Hiraki/Jake as a team, and think that other slots are more suspicious.

I just noticed, @PP could you explain your progression from 1927 to 2034? It looks like Chkflip made it to the top of your list when you sheeped onto the wagon, but you backed off to rethink when pressure on that wagon disappeared. You also sheeped the Chemist wagon, so it's interesting that you're shading Hiraki for that. I guess what I'm asking is, I would like to know how you reached chkflip, why you reconsidered, and where you're at right now.

I keep changing my mind between PP and chkflip. Like, by association chkflip seems way more likely, but then I notice something PP did that seems off (like above).

VOTE: chkflip

To be honest, I was thinking of how the game would go if we're wrong and town chooses no elim on D5. At first I figured it was riskier to chance a fast elim, but now that I think about it, the POE that it would offer is pretty good.

[Marashu]

UNVOTE:

2081 looks pretty good.

I don't have time to ISO right now, but I was TR'ing A50 pretty hard on D1 because of his wanting to protect townreads. That felt relatable. Then someone (Mena? I don't remember who; if it's important I can look it up this evening) pointed out that he did that as scum previously to not need to offer town reads. At the time I dismissed it because every game has different circumstances. I'll re-read A50's ISO tonight.

I would like to hear from PP (hopefully more than just a hammer).

[Marashu]

I can hammer before deadline, but just a couple things.

- I think it's strange that A50 isn't trying to push anyone else.
- Can someone explain why A50>PP?

[Marashu]

I really don't think it's A50. His interactions with TH didn't feel SvS (especially around the post 433 to 459 mark). His desire to hide townreads felt townie to me, and his conclusion in 1661 I think is sound. Jake placed the entire WW team in his townreads - I know he didn't know they were werewolf at the time, but from the way he was doing his "reads" they at least weren't voting for him. I don't think the A50 counterwagon was a case of 2 scum wagons.

Maybe I have blinders on, but if A50 flips green, please spend time re-evaluating PP, because I'm not hearing any good reasons why PP is town but from my point of view it feels like nobody's really entertaining scum!PP.

Because it's more likely that my town read is just wrong, VOTE: A50. Trusting town if this goes to another day.

[Marashu]

So my town read WAS wrong. Go figure.

GG all. Well played Mafia and Werewolves - I was sure A50 was town and was just worried about deadline more than anything.

Thanks for modding @TemporalLich

[Marashu]

By the by, Jake, I really liked your gimmick. It's unfortunate you subbed into a slot that was pretty strongly scumread before you arrived.

[Marashu]

Also, Bell, maybe I did read it wrong and you weren't trying to set up a soft claim, but I do know there was no way I'd be able to pin you as scum without a guilty verdict, so great job with that. Like, if not for that I wouldn't have even suspected you.

[Marashu]

Yeah, I just read the dead thread. Looks like the dead at least thought it was pretty clearly A50.

[Marashu]

Also, I was so excited to finally roll town I left the message with my role PM open in its own tab pretty much the entire game (I had a hard time believing it was right until I received my N1 results)

[Marashu]

I also wanted to crumb D1 but got too excited, messed it up, and then just abandoned the whole thing.

[Marashu]

How did both scum teams recognize Dunn as an investigative role? If it was post 1, to me that felt like he was pretending.

[Marashu]

I was wondering if that would happen - weak confirmed town is better to keep around than a strong town player.

[Marashu]

Now that the game's over, I can say that I didn't really think Crush switching out was alignment-indicative. It took some time for the game to fill up, so my take on it was that Crush forgot about this game, and by the time it started Crush couldn't commit to it.

[Marashu]

Faction PTs were an interesting read. But now I'm feeling kinda glad that I didn't push Bell too hard D1.

[Marashu]

Faction PTs were an interesting read. But now I'm feeling kinda glad that I didn't push Bell too hard D1.

Why?

I'm not sure who's a threat to me.
Marashu isn't a threat to me from my POV, not yet anyway.

This leaves me nervous of Teacher, A50, maybe Penguin.

I wasn't getting roleblocked, but it might have made me more of an NK target