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[Frogsterking]

Heyyy page 3.

RVS VOTE: callforjudgement as a call for peace

[Frogsterking]

(PEDIT: re #58)

Why do you care about whether we're cultured, as opposed to whether we're scum? This is a Mafia game, not a classics exam. (Also, #4 doesn't have a single correct answer; Assyria no longer exists and its capital changed over time.)

There's only one town-indicative reason I can think of to make a post like #44, and if it were the actual reason, I'd expect you to have mentioned it.

As for your previous comment: I know I post a lot of text sometimes, but I'm trying to convince people to play in a more town-sided way. In the current metagame, town wins quite easily when townies put in effort, scum win quite easily when they don't. There are a lot of players out there (some of them in this game; hi Not_Mafia!) who are good players when they put their minds to it, but more commonly just end up passively floating through the game and eventually making everyone impossible to read.

I therefore see trying to persuade people to get their brains into gear as important, as I'm unlikely to win otherwise.

PEDIT re #59: I believe we're out of RVS as soon as anyone posts anything that can be scumhunted from. We were out of RVS

before

my two posts, not

because of

them. That's why I didn't cast a random vote, and why I don't expect any more random voting in this game.

(added bold)

The bolded comment was intended to be a town slip (as was the post pretty much) but I'm here to make the case it's actually NAI.

If judgement is unable to persuade people to get their brains in gear he's unlikely to win as town or mafia, because he's unable to persuade people. He even said "...as

I'm

unlikely to win otherwise", as though he's scum and the cognitive dissonance of saying "town is unlikely to win otherwise" was too great.

[Frogsterking]

prodge to post when i'm sober

Lame excuse.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Nosferatu

I'm not buying the sobriety excuse because I'm town and posting anyway right now. Nosferatu's post seems a little lurky and overconcerned. Like he thinks he can get away with it for an ML or two.

COJ seems overly concerned with Not_Mafia. I feel like he would be able to think more critically if he stopped mentioning Not_Mafia.

COJ and Not_Mafia nominated themselves for town leader and town "anti-town" and seem well suited for their roles respectively.

WaltertheDunce10 seems like he likes Twitter or LinkedIn or both.

[Frogsterking]

Nosferatu seems like he's trying to lurk and be overreactive and get town read for it by being hipster. Like Nosferatu is saying to himself "I have two or three other scum buddies, it's D1, nothing really to do, let me just throw this out there."

[Frogsterking]

I feel like Nosferatu if he flipped town would just post some filler there instead of explaining that he couldn't post filler because he's drunk.

Like you really think a guy who took the time to upload an animated avatar of some movie star consuming a cigar or joint or whatever the fuck that is would feel too self-aware to post some filler because he's been drinking?

[Frogsterking]

I feel like Nosferatu if he flipped town would just post some filler there instead of explaining that he couldn't post filler because he's drunk.

Like you really think a guy who took the time to upload an animated avatar of some movie star consuming a cigar or joint or whatever the fuck that is would feel too self-aware to post some filler because he's been drinking?

what are you even saying bro
which one of us was drinking last night lmao

prodge to post when i'm sober

im posting for the mod not you doofus

By the end of page 3 I will have caught 1 scum.

Proceed.

Nope. By the end of day 1 no one will have caught scum. Never happened before, it isnt going to change here

Wdym by “no one will have caught scum”

I find day 1s fairly useless, way too much noise and people being too clever. no one has got any info to go on and day one is just random....excepting scum never get lynched.

thats cause you suck at the game

VOTE: Walter

RQS should be permabannable

finally some quality content

VOTE: walter

Very strong

FoS on Nosferatu for the active lurking and silent BW in the posts above + immediate attempt to create a counter BW from the players below:

@Frogsterking: I’m wondering why you’re so hostile towards Nosferatu? What say ye?

For now: VOTE: Frogsterking

oh,
Because I thought the memes and bruhs were not as helpful overall.
But asking qs is more helpful than nothing.
pedit
slight on sou
Very slight on sj but could just be her posting style.
Just a lot of nulls right now due to people like nm or people who have not been on.

You're right that asking questions is more helpful than nothing but what was done could so easily have been done as scum too. 142 and 147 are NAI.

Can you explain the slight scumreads?

For Sj it it the bait posts and posts like 91 that don;t solve but say look scummy.
is that an actual claim sj in 216?
Alright for sou, it is the progression from 79 where he will go back and reread and then 117 where he agrees with a post but does not offer any solving or anything at all.

I have to say that I read frog as scum now.
I find 150 to be really weird case to make this late, now maybe that was when he online next. but it seems kinda wifomy.
But then his most recent posts put nomafia as town antitown???
I read that slot as null.
But the case on nosferatu seems forced and an overread into a slot that has not been on.
VOTE: Frogster

VOTE: Nosferatu

I'm not buying the sobriety excuse because I'm town and posting anyway right now. Nosferatu's post seems a little lurky and overconcerned. Like he thinks he can get away with it for an ML or two.

COJ seems overly concerned with Not_Mafia. I feel like he would be able to think more critically if he stopped mentioning Not_Mafia.

COJ and Not_Mafia nominated themselves for town leader and town "anti-town" and seem well suited for their roles respectively.

WaltertheDunce10 seems like he likes Twitter or LinkedIn or both.

Nosferatu seems like he's trying to lurk and be overreactive and get town read for it by being hipster. Like Nosferatu is saying to himself "I have two or three other scum buddies, it's D1, nothing really to do, let me just throw this out there."

I feel like Nosferatu if he flipped town would just post some filler there instead of explaining that he couldn't post filler because he's drunk.

Like you really think a guy who took the time to upload an animated avatar of some movie star consuming a cigar or joint or whatever the fuck that is would feel too self-aware to post some filler because he's been drinking?

Tbh this vote feels like a pretty bad excuse for a vote. And the reaction feels forced.

VOTE: Frogsterking

Wouldn't call active lurking + silent BW + immediate counter BW from three other players a null slot or bad excuse for a vote.

[Frogsterking]

Also odd that Foster should be upset with active lurking given they have one of the lowest post counts.

Not really. Active lurking and low post count don't have much in common. Ripped straight from the Mafiascum wiki:
https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... ve_Lurking

"Active Lurking, also referred to as Fluffposting or Fillering, is the act of posting (thus differentiating it from ordinary Lurking), but the material posted is irrelevant or otherwise useless for scumhunting.

Examples of active lurking include posts made only of taunts, excuses for not posting, incoherent gibberish that will lead people to suspect that you do not have the Internet savvy to play Mafia, general bland agreement with whatever is going on, prod dodges, and so forth. For the less couth readers, this is frequently called "bullshitting" in MeatWorld.

This tactic is employed by scum who wish to appear more active than they actually are; either for the scum who has no comment on the current matter but does not want to seem like they are lurking, or for the lurker who wants to paint themselves as slightly better than some other lurker.

The effectiveness of this tactic is quite impressive if players are not specifically looking for it. It is a common Town mistake to wish for the elimination of people they violently disagree with over the people who post whatever they can to stay on the periphery. However, Towns nowadays are often aware of this behaviour and will consider it a major scumtell."

(And #266, which Italiano posted while I was writing that, says pretty much the same thing in using many fewer words. This makes me suspect that Italiano is town, having come to the same conclusion as me independently from the same evidence.)

This line of thinking is a mistake in my opinion.

@Frogsterking: Do you view Nosferatu as significantly scummier than sordros? If so, what's the difference between the two slots?

Yes. Here are the top four differences:

#1 Experience

It's easy to see sordros is new to the format of the game. Here is his first post in the spoilers below:

Spoiler:

I know a few players in the playerlist (SJReaver, Frogsterking, & Walter)

I don’t know the others, but this is for everyone...

1. What is your mafia experience?
2. What is your play style strength(s)? Weakness(es)? Do you know?
3. In your opinion, what is the most important thing to look for while scumhunting? While townreading?

I’ll go first.

• - This is my 5th game game onsite, however, I have been playing the wolf/village variation of the game on a forum called WeBL since about 2006. I’m still learning how to play the game on this platform; trying to get the terms down and all that; still learning the roles and alignment s and slots and all that, so by mafia standards I’m still a noob.
  - I’d have to say my strength is the ability to townread players. Because of my overall experience I am right on village/town reads probably about 80-85% of the time all time. It’s obviously not that high on here, but still fairly high enough, I’d say about 55%. My weakness is scumhunting. A large part of this is my overthinking. Many times I’ve talked myself out of scumreads or finding wolves because of this. No matter how much I’ve tried to alleviate this flaw it keeps biting me in the butt, so I figured I’d focus on my strength and try to keep strengthening that.
  - I think looking for inconsistencies and either passiveness or aggressiveness given the context. When I townread, it’s mainly gut sometimes as I can’t point to something specific, but I’d say I look for a player being disagreeable and/or a player who has his own thoughts and mind and doesn’t go with the crowd.

Look forward to your answers.

Hello fellows!
I like this way to get things going.

I’ve played mafia here for a while a long time ago and played werewolf/mafia here and there over the years.
I don’t think I’m introspective enough to know my real strengths and weaknesses, but I guess I’m kind of good at paying attention to detail when I have enough time and spotting inconsistencies, which I think is the best way to hunt mafia scum.
I get a townie vibe from people who participate and keeps things clear, without inconsistencies. Problem is a good mafia player will strive to achieve just that.
That’s what keeps things interesting for this game I guess.

Peace!

#2 Intent

Because of difference #1, Experience, it's difficult to discern whether sordros's lack of presence is due to difficulty keeping up with the pace of the game or a desire to hide something. Contrast this with Nosferatu whose intent to not contribute is very purposeful in the spoilers below:

Spoiler:

prodge to post when i'm sober

im posting for the mod not you doofus

I recognize tour cote has valid criticism of my gameplay so far.
Nm nosferatu
Any fucking reads?

thats a lil personal dont u think?

#3 Openness

Despite the lack of presence, in contrast to Nosferatu's evasiveness in the examples above, it's easy to find examples of sordros participating in the discussion in some way. In addition to sordros's intro post in the spoilers under #1, more examples of sordros providing unsolicited input into the discussion in the spoilers below:

Spoiler:

We don't know anything about the set-up?

No idea how many mafia there are, if there are more than two factions? No idea what roles people might have?

This is weird. I don't like it.

Here's some better questions guys:

1) What do you like most about cinderblocks

2) What is your favorite concrete color mix?

3) When was the first time a cinder block changed your life?

4) What is the capital of Assyria?

5) Do you believe the Church and gospel of Jesus Christ have been restored through the Prophet Joseph Smith?

1. They are solid.
2. Grayish
3. When it smashed my toes
4. Assur?
5. More input required to compute

Wow. At this point in time you are suspicious of the labeled RVS?
I guess I’d think it depends on the bandwidth each player has to invest on this but honestly I don’t get any clear read from what I’ve read so far. I’d consider random voting still valid. Let me go back and review the posts...

More from me tomorrow

What happens when someone fluffposts a lot is that the thread ends up expanding quickly and making the useful content harder to find; then people end up dreading having to catch up (and get frustrated at the "thread has been bumped" indicators), stop reading for a while, their eyes glaze over and they stop scumhunting. Then scum win. Reducing the number of posts like that (even if you simply just combine them) makes it easier for players to get into the game, and makes people generally easier to read.

Oh I can definitely agree to that. Too much volume makes it harder for me to catch-up and easier for smart scum to hide between the lines.

#4 Attention

Sordoros's attention seems to be on group discussions and thoughts and feelings of other players. If he's not interested in opening new lines of discussions, he's at least interested in continuing existing ones. He also seems to avoid discussions containing filler. This is in contrast with Nosferatu whose attention is on filler and shutting down lines of discussion (especially shutting down lines regarding scum tells and/or himself):

Spoiler:

Wouldn't call active lurking + silent BW + immediate counter BW from three other players a null slot or bad excuse for a vote.

u unironically sat down at ur computer and said that u didnt believe that i would post sober bc the person in my avatar was smoking LMAO

he posted too many questions its not that deep

he posted too many questions its not that deep

Oh I see so nothing.

idk why u were looking for something where there is none

By the end of page 3 I will have caught 1 scum.

Proceed.

Nope. By the end of day 1 no one will have caught scum. Never happened before, it isnt going to change here

Wdym by “no one will have caught scum”

I find day 1s fairly useless, way too much noise and people being too clever. no one has got any info to go on and day one is just random....excepting scum never get lynched.

thats cause you suck at the game

VOTE: Walter

RQS should be permabannable

finally some quality content

Final Notes:

There was one post from sordoros I thought could be a scum tell because of its potential to be gloating:

Spoiler:

By the end of page 3 I will have caught 1 scum.

Proceed.

Awesome! Looking forward to that!

I also thought Nosferatu's reaction to my FoS was terrible in addition to his silent BW in the spoilers below:

Spoiler:

I feel like Nosferatu if he flipped town would just post some filler there instead of explaining that he couldn't post filler because he's drunk.

Like you really think a guy who took the time to upload an animated avatar of some movie star consuming a cigar or joint or whatever the fuck that is would feel too self-aware to post some filler because he's been drinking?

what are you even saying bro
which one of us was drinking last night lmao

wait until sober to post*

VOTE: walter

Overall sordoros appears closer to new-neutral than new-scum from my point of view while Nosferatu straight up deserves a BW.

[Frogsterking]

am i getting punk'd lmao?

u accused me of active lurking on like my 2nd or 3rd post lmao?

did prodging become AI while i was away im starting to get lost in the sauce rn

VOTE: Nosferatu VOTE: Nosferatu

[Frogsterking]

Well at the very least he’s an unhelpful pointless townie
VOTE: Nosferatu

ok now i know somethings up bro you're not telling me you actually read that incoherent ramble and just said "well ya know hes not doing much"

WHAT

I also thought Nosferatu's reaction to my FoS was terrible in addition to his silent BW in the spoilers below:

I feel like Nosferatu if he flipped town would just post some filler there instead of explaining that he couldn't post filler because he's drunk.

Like you really think a guy who took the time to upload an animated avatar of some movie star consuming a cigar or joint or whatever the fuck that is would feel too self-aware to post some filler because he's been drinking?

what are you even saying bro
which one of us was drinking last night lmao

wait until sober to post*

VOTE: walter

Overall sordoros appears closer to new-neutral than new-scum from my point of view while Nosferatu straight up deserves a BW.

#1

he didnt even say what he didnt like bro

#2

what the fuck is a silent bandwagon, a naked vote?

#3

he literally quoted a correction you can't even tell what im talking about

this is like performance art

(added numbers and bold)

#1

I just made a massive post detailing exactly what I didn't like.

#2

Yes where I refer to a silent BW it means hopping on the BW with a naked vote.

#3

This is true, I did leave a quote out on accident. Unfortunately (for you) having them both together doesn't help too much with the comprehension anyway. Here they both are:

Wouldn't call active lurking + silent BW + immediate counter BW from three other players a null slot or bad excuse for a vote.

u unironically sat down at ur computer and said that u didnt believe that i would post sober bc the person in my avatar was smoking LMAO

wait until sober to post*

I think it's interesting you became image-conscious enough to self-correct your post above immediately after the pressure on you started. From my point of view the self-preservation escalates here:

I think Frog is probably town

also moving my vote somewhere more useful
VOTE: Walter

why do you think its more useful there???

Now that Nosferatu's been called out (and read my post thoroughly enough to point out the missing quote) he finally asks his first open-ended question of the day.

I'd also like to point out that Nosferatu uses ATE constantly as a defense with comments like "srsly bro u think that lmao."

[Frogsterking]

hes literally babbling and you're eating it up LMFAO did you even open the spoilers???

An example of Nosferatu's ATE in the quote above.

[Frogsterking]

Charmander just shot up to FoS #2 for his terrible defense of Nosferatu. Arguably it makes him even scummier than Nosferatu.

[Frogsterking]

ItalianoVD
callforjudgement

Gamma Emerald
BananaCucho
SJReaver

Not_Mafia
geraintm
Raya36
Frogsterking

Nosferatu

RCEnigma
sordros

WaltertheDunce10

also
VOTE: geraintm
it's not strong but the thing I called out earlier is the first thing in a while that's actively pinged me

If these are actually town reads then this list is terrible as well.

[Frogsterking]

Charmander just shot up to FoS #2 for his terrible defense of Nosferatu. Arguably it makes him even scummier than Nosferatu.

ItalianoVD
callforjudgement

Gamma Emerald
BananaCucho
SJReaver

Not_Mafia
geraintm
Raya36
Frogsterking

Nosferatu

RCEnigma
sordros

WaltertheDunce10

also
VOTE: geraintm
it's not strong but the thing I called out earlier is the first thing in a while that's actively pinged me

If these are actually town reads then this list is terrible as well.

I’ll be sure to take your words into consideration, Mr. Thinks A Single Prodge Means Active Lurking

Sarcasm..

A weak-minded tool to control weak-minded people

[Frogsterking]

At the moment I'm feeling like this is a four-scum setup.

[Frogsterking]

Frog, if nos is town, what are your scumreads?

It's difficult to imagine, I would start with Banana and Gamma for the strange townreads.

[Frogsterking]

@Frogsterking: I’m wondering why you’re so hostile towards Nosferatu? What say ye?

For now: VOTE: Frogsterking

I'm not sure why initially but now I feel pretty platinum about it.

Okay so what’s happening with 334 What’s a spoiler chat?

Aight I think Frog is scum and it looks like the interaction between him and Nosferatu is scum theatre. Frog’s reason is weak and forced. Nosferatu’s reaction to that weak forced case also seems weak and forced. That’s why my vote is there and will probably stay there. You voting for yourself is never a good idea imo.

I’m feeling a little off about callforjudgment. Very townie. Very beautiful and perfect posts. The best posts in the history of our country. You’ve never seen posts like these before. So beautiful.

Townies

Walter
SJReaver
Banana
RCEnigma
Raya
Not_Mafia

Scum

Frogsterking
Nosferatu
callforjudgment

Null and/or no read

sordros
Gamma
geraintm

I have to look back over Gamma and geraintm to get a better read. Still no idea what Sordros is doing here.

Interesting. A lot of assumptions but definitely exciting. I would probably do this as scum if I ever got the chance.

[Frogsterking]

Charmander just shot up to FoS #2 for his terrible defense of Nosferatu. Arguably it makes him even scummier than Nosferatu.

ItalianoVD
callforjudgement

Gamma Emerald
BananaCucho
SJReaver

Not_Mafia
geraintm
Raya36
Frogsterking

Nosferatu

RCEnigma
sordros

WaltertheDunce10

also
VOTE: geraintm
it's not strong but the thing I called out earlier is the first thing in a while that's actively pinged me

If these are actually town reads then this list is terrible as well.

I’ll be sure to take your words into consideration, Mr. Thinks A Single Prodge Means Active Lurking

Sarcasm..

A weak-minded tool to control weak-minded people

The fool sits upon his tower of false gold, looking down on those he believe to be beneath him, when it is he who is the lowest, having bought a sham.

Touche.

[Frogsterking]

hmm
I am not sure about it being hard to imagine, but I think for you the possibility of nos being town is far fetched. from 488.
Not sure I agree that sarcasm is weak.

Frog, Could you elaborate on why you think there are 4 scum?

Agreed with gerain on italiano's post on frog.
K, Gerain, you are saying it is how you play D1s.
497 seems towny, but then there seems to be a self-counscious statement with 'Have I explained myself well enough."
At least that is how I see it.
Weird though we get a scum then a fan post and before that Nm with a vote on a person who just replaced in.

(added bold)

I feel like no one looks very townie and from what little I know about the range this setup could be there are probably three or four scum. If the setup is balanced so that there are four scum against extra prs for town that could explain the general lack of towniness.

[Frogsterking]

I called CFJ COJ in this post and I think it's still easy to understand so I will leave the typo in and try to fix for future posts.

I had issues with the formatting so my comments and their accompanying quotes are in non-chronological order. Nothing I said was that long or complex so again I will leave it how it is and try to correct in future ISOs.

Overall I think the RCE slot is town because there is some complexity to the scum play if it's scum play and there were several posts I think could have just been outright omitted from a scum perspective. I think it would be nice for town if this read is correct because RCE made some good points and seems to pay attention to details.

The town read is weak though because the position was really not that difficult to play from scum so far and because of the attention to detail you would expect the scum play to be fairly consistent.

Because that sort of post is more scummy from someone who has a lower post count. It doesn't matter much if one individual post is being guarded/defensive if the rest of the ISO is giving away information. It does matter if the majority of a player's posts are being cagey and the rest of the ISO isn't there.

Don't bullshit a bullshitter. Which posts were SJR giving away information pre post 50? Much less by post 27.

I think that this early timing was very strong and may have caught COJ off-guard.

@Mod

VC has inaccurate votes on Raya.

Fixed, and added "CFJ" as a nickname.

-gb

This is a good catch, shows RCE is paying attention to the votecount and leads me to believe he is conscientious, so values goal progression and organization.

But I only know one person that has voted scum for sure.

?

I see not mafia is being their normal day 1 self too

It's Raya, literally the only person to vote scum for sure this game.

VOTE: CFJ

Stop pissing off the mafia.

Like JayZ said "it was all good just a week ago".

Some filler. I feel like RCE was biding a little time before the COJ vote who he's suspected for a couple hundred posts by this point.

RCE How do you feel about Raya's vote on COJ?

Instead, you look at what people post, and think "why is this person posting about X? why is this person not posting about Y, when they apparently had the time to post about X?" Then you work out what reads a player must have in order for their actions to make sense, and if their apparent reads don't match their stated reads, perhaps there's scum there.

Mostly to see if my I initial read on your slot was accurate.

I can agree on the above and this is ironically pretty close to what brought me to that read.

Then the long and short is you scumread multiple sjr posts but not 27 because it's not indicative if the slot has other scum indicative posts.

But it also is indicative if that same post is made by a slot that has other scum indicative posts...but less of them.

From your pov.

I was really surprised at just how bad COJ looked in these early interactions while going through this ISO. I feel like it may have just been different communication styles that caused the conflict initially and COJ did not respond well. I view the COJ BW as much more credible after going through this ISO.

By the end of page 3 I will have caught 1 scum.

Proceed.

Nope. By the end of day 1 no one will have caught scum. Never happened before, it isnt going to change here

What if I told you I've already caught 2?

I believe here he is referring to SJReaver and COJ. And will at some point soon change his mind about SJReaver.

VOTE: Nosferatu let's dance

1. What is your mafia experience?
2. What is your play style strength(s)? Weakness(es)? Do you know?
3. In your opinion, what is the most important thing to look for while scumhunting? While townreading?

1. Every game that has or will ever exist.

2. Strengths? Physical, I will bench press all of you.
Weakness?.........weakness????

3. Most important to look for scum when scum hunting I would think. I don't townread anyone ever so that's not relevant.

Takes pride in masculine qualities, plays with bravura, is skeptical and disagreeable. Assertive communicator. I'm guessing conservative politically because there are also early signs of conscientiousness.

The first player who caught my attention was SJReaver (newbie greeting tell in #13), but they've done it before as town (Newbie 2020).

Can we add this to the list of fallacies or scrub it from the wiki? This isn't a thing.

I think it should be rewritten as an NAI tell that the slot is a newbie. I feel like it's possible there is something to it but it would require a multivariate analysis.

I'd imagine it could also be indicative of a formal communication style.

By the end of page 3 I will have caught 1 scum.

Proceed.

Lots of bravura.

By the end of page 3 I will have caught 1 scum.

Proceed.

Nope. By the end of day 1 no one will have caught scum. Never happened before, it isnt going to change here

What if I told you I've already caught 2?

More bravura.

NM might be town lol.

Why?

I'm with it VOTE: SJReaper

Surely it couldn’t have been this easy?

It was actually even easier than that tbh. As I'll explain in my tell all book later this day phase.

Bravura etc.

I'm starting to read comments about posting big comments later as a town tell.

Frog is probably town. That's a wild wild take.

I like this post because I'm Frog.

It's also congruent that RCE, an assertive communicator who posts a bunch of bravura early on, immediately townreads me after playing with bravura and communicating assertively while under counter-pressure.

I think my problem with this game is all of the surface level accusations that are surely to go nowhere. Some of them might even be on scum! But I only know one person that has voted scum for sure.

Nos I think you reducing Frogs case down to unintelligible babble is disingenuous at best. But the strong reaction to a weak case concerning.

What's more concerning is your attention being directed at frog and not the following votes on a wagon that you should recognize doesn't hold much weight.

What's up man talk to me, what's got you bothered?

This post marked a turning point IMO and seems more contemplative. I think RCE was beginning to question his reads here.

What's more concerning is your attention being directed at frog and not the following votes on a wagon that you should recognize doesn't hold much weight.

IM VOTING someone on a wagon that doesn't hold much weight like what the fuck am i reading

The voters on YOUR WAGON.

I think this is a good catch and a sign that RCE is paying attention to the wording. It's also a post that seems perfectly acceptable to omit as scum, especially in a scum vs scum scenario.

hmm
I am not sure about it being hard to imagine, but I think for you the possibility of nos being town is far fetched. from 488.
Not sure I agree that sarcasm is weak.

Frog, Could you elaborate on why you think there are 4 scum?

Agreed with gerain on italiano's post on frog.
K, Gerain, you are saying it is how you play D1s.
497 seems towny, but then there seems to be a self-counscious statement with 'Have I explained myself well enough."
At least that is how I see it.
Weird though we get a scum then a fan post and before that Nm with a vote on a person who just replaced in.

(added bold)

I feel like no one looks very townie and from what little I know about the range this setup could be there are probably three or four scum. If the setup is balanced so that there are four scum against extra prs for town that could explain the general lack of towniness.

I would have preferred this not be explained. But +1.

I think this is congruent with the change in tone over the course of D1. Contrast this for example with the earlier post:

We don't know anything about the set-up?

No idea how many mafia there are, if there are more than two factions? No idea what roles people might have?

This is weird. I don't like it.

Assume the setup is 10-3.

If we Lynch 3 mafia and the game doesn't end. Panic.

I think RCE ended up with too many srs. And changed his mind about one of the early 2 srs (Reaver.) I think these things are indicative of someone who is playing with incomplete information and therefore a town tell.

Weird though we get a scum then a fan post and before that Nm with a vote on a person who just replaced in

What does this even mean?

I think he was referring to the activity around the Taylor Swift slot, that he or someone else thought the slot was scummy, possibly referring to the earlier suspicion on the soro guy in the same slot, then you remarked you were a fan of either the player or the name or the slot being replaced, then NM voted the slot. For some reason Walter found this activity notable.

I'd also like Walter to elaborate on this.

I still don't get this. raya has voted for not mafia, callforjudgement and walter. are you saying you are 100% sure scum is within those 3? as you follow with a vote for callforjudgement, I assume this is what you meant.

Nope, Walter could be scum sure. NM town. 1 scum within cfj.

I think it's congruent for RCE to be pushing on COJ who has a very analytical communication style. I can't really imagine these two cracking open some beers together.

Gamma what if I told you that you aren't the scum I've found but you are one of the slots I'm scumreading at the moment?

I feel like he probably didn't feel very threatened by this statement because it appears you are scumreading many slots.

...and I don't believe nos/frog to be partners.

Why not? Could you be wrong there?

I could be wrong about everything I've said here. But it would be silly of me to think I am.

Sharp answer.

[Frogsterking]

By the way guys at this point in time I have three serious scum reads and I'll disclose them another time. I also have one other very weak town read I'll ISO now.

[Frogsterking]

Did you know? part 1: geraintm's vote on Not_Mafia was his RVS vote (#29). It hasn't changed since.

Did you know? part 2: Although the fact in the previous paragraph would be a horrible scumtell coming from almost anyone, it is

not

a scumtell coming from geraintm. In Mini Normal 2153 (where geraintm was VT), geraintm made an RVS vote in that game's #62, and didn't unvote or place another vote until that game's #1377, almost 11 votecounts into that game's day 2 (despite having moderate scumreads elsewhere in many parts of day 1). So I think any tells on geraintm based on bizarre voting behaviour are invalid. (geraintm sometimes moves his vote sooner, but only upon having a very strong read, which he normally doesn't D1.)

day 1 I am nothing but shade. you know it will take a lot on day 1 for me to actually vote someone.

Did you know? part 3: geraintm seems to use the same RVS gimmick every game. This might produce interesting scumhunting information if this fact were generally known (because posting at the critical post count is, in effect, volunteering to be D1 Hated when geraintm is playing). However, I think it's highly likely that the playerlist as a whole was unaware of geraintm's tendency to breadcrumb the algorithm by which he'll subsequently cast his first vote, meaning that it's effectively random (weighted by posting frequency) and provably unmanipulatable

(possibly even to the extent of bypassing the rules on provable randomness?).

Perhaps if geraintm outright stated "I will vote for the person who posts #22 [or whatever] for the entirety of day 1, check my meta, I do this every game", the gimmick would produce more interesting information for scumhunting purposes; as it is, it's basically just a method of playing that's anti-town, but repeated so consistently that it isn't a scumtell for geraintm in particular.

VOTE: Tayl0r Swift

(added bold)

Thank you. That actually helps a lot for understanding geraintm.

What are you referring to in the part I bolded though?

[Frogsterking]

Weird though we get a scum then a fan post and before that Nm with a vote on a person who just replaced in

What does this even mean?

I was noting the mixed reactions by people.
The main thing that stuck out to me was italiano's meme and scum post.
It is really weird to have a take based on last slot so quickly in my opinion.

The one thing that has me worried though is the lack of a voting block.
You'd think there would be a second wagon, instead it is cfj and everyone else.
Kinda has me suspicious but if this keeps up this reminds of something, but site rules.
The 4 scum being explained is good.

I feel like you have good things to say and you say them in a way that's like abstract art which often makes them difficult or impossible to understand.

Now that I know you write that way though it's making me appreciate both your observations and the way you write them more.

[Frogsterking]

Did you know? part 1: geraintm's vote on Not_Mafia was his RVS vote (#29). It hasn't changed since.

Did you know? part 2: Although the fact in the previous paragraph would be a horrible scumtell coming from almost anyone, it is

not

a scumtell coming from geraintm. In Mini Normal 2153 (where geraintm was VT), geraintm made an RVS vote in that game's #62, and didn't unvote or place another vote until that game's #1377, almost 11 votecounts into that game's day 2 (despite having moderate scumreads elsewhere in many parts of day 1). So I think any tells on geraintm based on bizarre voting behaviour are invalid. (geraintm sometimes moves his vote sooner, but only upon having a very strong read, which he normally doesn't D1.)

day 1 I am nothing but shade. you know it will take a lot on day 1 for me to actually vote someone.

Did you know? part 3: geraintm seems to use the same RVS gimmick every game. This might produce interesting scumhunting information if this fact were generally known (because posting at the critical post count is, in effect, volunteering to be D1 Hated when geraintm is playing). However, I think it's highly likely that the playerlist as a whole was unaware of geraintm's tendency to breadcrumb the algorithm by which he'll subsequently cast his first vote, meaning that it's effectively random (weighted by posting frequency) and provably unmanipulatable (possibly even to the extent of bypassing the rules on provable randomness?). Perhaps if geraintm outright stated "I will vote for the person who posts #22 [or whatever] for the entirety of day 1, check my meta, I do this every game", the gimmick would produce more interesting information for scumhunting purposes; as it is, it's basically just a method of playing that's anti-town, but repeated so consistently that it isn't a scumtell for geraintm in particular.

VOTE: Tayl0r Swift

Can you do a Did you know? on Gamma?

[Frogsterking]

I'm a Day PT Cop, BananaCucho has a PT

VOTE: BananaCucho

Good choice.

VOTE: BananaCucho

[Frogsterking]

I'm down for a Nosferatu or Banana lynch. I also scumread the CFJ slot because of his early interactions, I'm more interested in lynching the Nosferatu or Banana slots D1 though because CFJ's scumplay seems more helpful.

I have a weak townread on RCE and I never finished my ISO on the SJReaver slot but I have a weak townread there as well.

[Frogsterking]

Helpful scumplay is still scumplay
Why do you think it’s worth keeping active scum alive?

Explain to me how we will lynch three players on D1 and I will.

[Frogsterking]

There are three things I wanted to say this afternoon.

#1

I realized I have a feeling that Raya is scum, however, I believe the feeling is caused by the implicit bias of her current avatar which is a wolf, and because of the mafia-like game Werewolves I associate wolf with scum. I view this feeling as NAI and the behavior of the Raya slot as a whole as null because I haven't seen her do anything which would imply to me her alignment is one way or the other.

#2:

In the posts below, I believe I'm beginning to understand what geraintm is referring to. If I'm correct, geraintm is saying he doesn't like it when I or others post an opinion without an explanation or a call to action because it enables scum to formulate their plan ahead of time.

My Taylor vote was a joke but now it’s serious

You have no explanation, but the vote is serious?
This is why you are so infuriating

By the way guys at this point in time I have three serious scum reads and I'll disclose them another time. I also have one other very weak town read I'll ISO now.

I wish people would stop being so cryptic. If you have an opinion then say, don't save them for later when they can be tailored to the game state. That is just potentially scummy...

This leads me to believe that, because of his experience and his choices to play in the way that he does, as well as the meta information quoted in #3 of this post, geraintm is an extremely proactive, defensive and risk averse player who prefers to remain a null slot during the course of the game, and because he has played this way consistently this game I'm reading him as null unless he changes his behavior.

#3

In the same spirit of being proactive and risk averse I'll point out a reason why I believe CFJ is scum ahead of time even though there's no real impetus for me to do so.

In the same post written about geraintm which was helpful in understanding his motivation there's something extremely odd I noticed:

Did you know? part 1: geraintm's vote on Not_Mafia was his RVS vote (#29). It hasn't changed since.

Did you know? part 2: Although the fact in the previous paragraph would be a horrible scumtell coming from almost anyone, it is

not

a scumtell coming from geraintm. In Mini Normal 2153 (where geraintm was VT), geraintm made an RVS vote in that game's #62, and didn't unvote or place another vote until that game's #1377, almost 11 votecounts into that game's day 2 (despite having moderate scumreads elsewhere in many parts of day 1). So I think any tells on geraintm based on bizarre voting behaviour are invalid. (geraintm sometimes moves his vote sooner, but only upon having a very strong read, which he normally doesn't D1.)

day 1 I am nothing but shade. you know it will take a lot on day 1 for me to actually vote someone.

Did you know? part 3: geraintm seems to use the same RVS gimmick every game. This might produce interesting scumhunting information if this fact were generally known (because posting at the critical post count is, in effect, volunteering to be D1 Hated when geraintm is playing). However, I think it's highly likely that the playerlist as a whole was unaware of geraintm's tendency to breadcrumb the algorithm by which he'll subsequently cast his first vote, meaning that it's effectively random (weighted by posting frequency) and provably unmanipulatable (possibly even to the extent of bypassing the rules on provable randomness?). Perhaps if geraintm outright stated "I will vote for the person who posts #22 [or whatever] for the entirety of day 1, check my meta, I do this every game", the gimmick would produce more interesting information for scumhunting purposes; as it is, it's basically just a method of playing that's anti-town, but repeated so consistently that it isn't a scumtell for geraintm in particular.

VOTE: Tayl0r Swift

Did you see anything odd?

I did: the subject of the post, the player geraintm, is not matched with the element that increases the win condition of the game we are playing; the vote at the end, which is on a different player Tayl0r. This seems odd because normally when we vote a player the subject of the post is in some way attached to that player.

It appears as though CFJ is using a specific lying strategy: providing too much information.

[Frogsterking]

I don't have much new to add except that I'm tempted to do an ISO on the Walter slot because his alignment seems to be a point of contention.

Looker replaced into a slot I had a slight town read on and shelly replaced into a slot I was scum reading and on first glance neither has done anything yet that looks alignment indicative to me.

[Frogsterking]

Also I do think that Nosferatu's recent posts are much more pro town, so at this point while I'm still skeptical of Nosferatu I'm happiest with where my vote is currently at because of my earlier read on Banana.

my current solve is enigma shelly and nos.

Who is enigma?

[Frogsterking]

Also I do think that Nosferatu's recent posts are much more pro town, so at this point while I'm still skeptical of Nosferatu I'm happiest with where my vote is currently at because of my earlier read on Banana.

my current solve is enigma shelly and nos.

Who is enigma?

RCEnigma?

Oh shit I've been reading it as RCE nigma this whole time, like he's into sports or radios or something.

[Frogsterking]

Can flashwagon Walter please, italiano is a vig kill not a lynch

I'd be more likely to consider joining your wagon if I understood why you scum read him.

[Frogsterking]

Can flashwagon Walter please, italiano is a vig kill not a lynch

I'd be more likely to consider joining your wagon if I understood why you scum read him.

His posts

What about his posts?

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: geraintm

thoughts on frogster

had a strong red on nosferatu earyl game, loads of long posts.
then switched and said gamma and banana were...but not the associated long posts with evidence.

back to long log posts on rc enimgma

528 - vague post hinting at scum but not disclosing any actual reads

weird read on CFJ about them being scum, but not wanting to lynch. instead focussing on nosferatu and banana

662 - raya is now scum

734 - wants to look at walter in case they are scum (and later asks permission from not mafia to join that wagon)

overall, they are throwing a lot of scum reads around. sticks with them but quickly moves onto the next shiny thing. not impressed

(tryng to go trough these in order of number of posts)

This post is wrong. For example, in your description of 734 you talk about post 745 and post 760, incorrectly stating that I ask Not Mafia permission to join his wagon, when you can see for yourself in 745 and 753 that I'm asking him to explain his read on Walter, not permission to join his wagon.

The conclusion at the end about me throwing a lot of scum reads around and then moving onto the next shiny thing looks a lot like you, except you don't throw scum reads, you just throw shade. 769 reminded me of this other relatively recent post:

huh?

The unvote didn't alert me. The uptight entrance of "reading" did. The tone to me was almost like reading the thread was a burden to them.

this feels bollocks

Strange entrance by looker but that is one post.
I love reading.
655, is just really weird in that it sorta shows like cfj said a lack of reading/ disengagement.

nope, going to call you out too. nothing about looker's post was odd

frog's post 662 - I don't get this. feels a load of hot air, no real substance

Nosferatu - your posts stink.
you tag raya as scummy - twive, and don't go anywhere with that thought.
random vote on the banana slot
random vote on shelly

how bored are you? are you just randomly interacting with this game? I see no content from you at all. be better

at italiano - I don't get why you single out Not mafia as being ok>

has ayone played with call for judgement before? are their very earnest posts typical? do they normally post like this as town/hide when scum?

oof yeah i really wanna lynch in cfj, shelly, enigma, or walter. like really really. they cant all be scum but this is some serious opportunism, id be surprised if there arent at least 2 scum in there maybe even all three if walter is scum.

don't like posts like this. caling out a third of the game and saying there is likely to be a scum in there...well duh. it feels like a post they can circle back later to to say "look, I always thought they were scum"

i still feel like cfj will be easy to evaluate after some flips, but is a bit messy today. i am suspicious, but dont want to lynch there today. that said, VOTE: shelly

i dont think its in town's best interest to discuss my vote movement at this time, but im happy to discuss the merits of a vote on shelly or the merits of a vote on walter. im guessing raya will understand what i mean based on past mind-melding at the very least.

nope you don't get to do this. you don't get to say "we aren't allowed to talk about my very cryptic post". why are so many people in this game being like this??

It looks like you're throwing shade in my direction without reading or understanding my posts.

Most of your reads are just vague descriptions that don't always match the content of the post. It looks like you're lazy scum not bothering to fill in the details about your reads.

[Frogsterking]

@ frogster

Can flashwagon Walter please, italiano is a vig kill not a lynch

I'd be more likely to consider joining your wagon if I understood why you scum read him.

#1

This is blatantly a post where you are trying to get someone else to make the case for you to join their wagon. you might not like the way I phrased it "asking for permission" but is the type of post people use where they want to move their vote to another wagon, cant justify it themselves so want to get someone else to write something so they can go "oh yeah, good point, I didn't see it that way, I will join you"

#2

you say I have said you throw a lot of scum reads around but you deny this

VOTE: Nosferatu
.

There was one post from sordoros I thought could be a scum tell because of its potential to be gloating:

Charmander just shot up to FoS #2 for his terrible defense of Nosferatu. Arguably it makes him even scummier than Nosferatu.

Frog, if nos is town, what are your scumreads?

It's difficult to imagine, I would start with Banana and Gamma for the strange townreads.

By the way guys at this point in time I have three serious scum reads and I'll disclose them another time. I also have one other very weak town read I'll ISO now.

VOTE: BananaCucho

I'm down for a Nosferatu or Banana lynch. I also scumread the CFJ slot because of his early interactions

There are three things I wanted to say this afternoon.

#1

I realized I have a feeling that Raya is scum

b]#3[/b] In the same spirit of being proactive and risk averse I'll point out a reason why I believe CFJ is scum

I don't have much new to add except that I'm tempted to do an ISO on the Walter slot because his alignment seems to be a point of contention.

Looker replaced into a slot I had a slight town read on and shelly replaced into a slot I was scum reading and on first glance neither has done anything yet that looks alignment indicative to me.

^^ to me looks like wants to see Walter as potential scum and shelly is scum

and you now vote for me.

for you to deny that you throw a lot of scum reads around and are constantly moving onto new targets is laughable.

but go ahead, explain how I haven't understood your posts...

#1

I've actually been leaning town on Walter if anything, I was interested in sorting Not Mafia with that question more so than Walter.

#2

Yeah I see a few scum reads mainly on CFJ, Nosferatu, Banana, and some mentions of Gamma and Raya as well. Banana and shelly are the same slot. That's a few scum reads and a couple scum leans or mentions. Recently I saw Nosferatu's posts as more townie and

[Frogsterking]

@ frogster

Can flashwagon Walter please, italiano is a vig kill not a lynch

I'd be more likely to consider joining your wagon if I understood why you scum read him.

#1

This is blatantly a post where you are trying to get someone else to make the case for you to join their wagon. you might not like the way I phrased it "asking for permission" but is the type of post people use where they want to move their vote to another wagon, cant justify it themselves so want to get someone else to write something so they can go "oh yeah, good point, I didn't see it that way, I will join you"

#2

you say I have said you throw a lot of scum reads around but you deny this

VOTE: Nosferatu
.

There was one post from sordoros I thought could be a scum tell because of its potential to be gloating:

Charmander just shot up to FoS #2 for his terrible defense of Nosferatu. Arguably it makes him even scummier than Nosferatu.

Frog, if nos is town, what are your scumreads?

It's difficult to imagine, I would start with Banana and Gamma for the strange townreads.

By the way guys at this point in time I have three serious scum reads and I'll disclose them another time. I also have one other very weak town read I'll ISO now.

VOTE: BananaCucho

I'm down for a Nosferatu or Banana lynch. I also scumread the CFJ slot because of his early interactions

There are three things I wanted to say this afternoon.

#1

I realized I have a feeling that Raya is scum

b]#3[/b] In the same spirit of being proactive and risk averse I'll point out a reason why I believe CFJ is scum

I don't have much new to add except that I'm tempted to do an ISO on the Walter slot because his alignment seems to be a point of contention.

Looker replaced into a slot I had a slight town read on and shelly replaced into a slot I was scum reading and on first glance neither has done anything yet that looks alignment indicative to me.

^^ to me looks like wants to see Walter as potential scum and shelly is scum

and you now vote for me.

#3

for you to deny that you throw a lot of scum reads around and are constantly moving onto new targets is laughable.

but go ahead, explain how I haven't understood your posts...

#1

I've actually been leaning town on Walter if anything, I was interested in sorting Not Mafia with that question more so than Walter.

#2

Yeah I see a few consistent scum reads mainly on CFJ, Nosferatu, Banana, and some mentions of Gamma and Raya as well. Banana and shelly are the same slot, not two different reads. That's a few scum reads, a couple town leans (possibly three if I include Walter) and a couple scum leans or mentions. Recently I saw Nosferatu's posts as more townie and

Sorry, I hit submit or something on accident while I was typing 779 in response to your post 774. Here's the rest of it:

#2

...and for D1 with 13 players that's a pretty normal range especially in a lobby like this where there are multiple players that are difficult to sort.

#3

I think this is a pretty superficial assessment. Another name for this behavior is scum hunting. If you're going to continue giving superficial or straight up inaccurate assessments and throw shade in my direction I'm very happy to leave my vote on you for D1, especially since you haven't done anything townie yet either.

I have more to say this.

[Frogsterking]

There are three things I wanted to say this afternoon.

#1

I realized I have a feeling that Raya is scum, however, I believe the feeling is caused by the implicit bias of her current avatar which is a wolf, and because of the mafia-like game Werewolves I associate wolf with scum. I view this feeling as NAI and the behavior of the Raya slot as a whole as null because I haven't seen her do anything which would imply to me her alignment is one way or the other.

#2:

In the posts below, I believe I'm beginning to understand what geraintm is referring to. If I'm correct, geraintm is saying he doesn't like it when I or others post an opinion without an explanation or a call to action because it enables scum to formulate their plan ahead of time.

My Taylor vote was a joke but now it’s serious

You have no explanation, but the vote is serious?
This is why you are so infuriating

By the way guys at this point in time I have three serious scum reads and I'll disclose them another time. I also have one other very weak town read I'll ISO now.

I wish people would stop being so cryptic. If you have an opinion then say, don't save them for later when they can be tailored to the game state. That is just potentially scummy...

This leads me to believe that, because of his experience and his choices to play in the way that he does, as well as the meta information quoted in #3 of this post, geraintm is an extremely proactive, defensive and risk averse player who prefers to remain a null slot during the course of the game, and because he has played this way consistently this game I'm reading him as null unless he changes his behavior.

#3

In the same spirit of being proactive and risk averse I'll point out a reason why I believe CFJ is scum ahead of time even though there's no real impetus for me to do so.

In the same post written about geraintm which was helpful in understanding his motivation there's something extremely odd I noticed:

Did you know? part 1: geraintm's vote on Not_Mafia was his RVS vote (#29). It hasn't changed since.

Did you know? part 2: Although the fact in the previous paragraph would be a horrible scumtell coming from almost anyone, it is

not

a scumtell coming from geraintm. In Mini Normal 2153 (where geraintm was VT), geraintm made an RVS vote in that game's #62, and didn't unvote or place another vote until that game's #1377, almost 11 votecounts into that game's day 2 (despite having moderate scumreads elsewhere in many parts of day 1). So I think any tells on geraintm based on bizarre voting behaviour are invalid. (geraintm sometimes moves his vote sooner, but only upon having a very strong read, which he normally doesn't D1.)

day 1 I am nothing but shade. you know it will take a lot on day 1 for me to actually vote someone.

Did you know? part 3: geraintm seems to use the same RVS gimmick every game. This might produce interesting scumhunting information if this fact were generally known (because posting at the critical post count is, in effect, volunteering to be D1 Hated when geraintm is playing). However, I think it's highly likely that the playerlist as a whole was unaware of geraintm's tendency to breadcrumb the algorithm by which he'll subsequently cast his first vote, meaning that it's effectively random (weighted by posting frequency) and provably unmanipulatable (possibly even to the extent of bypassing the rules on provable randomness?). Perhaps if geraintm outright stated "I will vote for the person who posts #22 [or whatever] for the entirety of day 1, check my meta, I do this every game", the gimmick would produce more interesting information for scumhunting purposes; as it is, it's basically just a method of playing that's anti-town, but repeated so consistently that it isn't a scumtell for geraintm in particular.

VOTE: Tayl0r Swift

Did you see anything odd?

I did: the subject of the post, the player geraintm, is not matched with the element that increases the win condition of the game we are playing; the vote at the end, which is on a different player Tayl0r. This seems odd because normally when we vote a player the subject of the post is in some way attached to that player.

It appears as though CFJ is using a specific lying strategy: providing too much information.

huh?

The unvote didn't alert me. The uptight entrance of "reading" did. The tone to me was almost like reading the thread was a burden to them.

this feels bollocks

Strange entrance by looker but that is one post.
I love reading.
655, is just really weird in that it sorta shows like cfj said a lack of reading/ disengagement.

nope, going to call you out too. nothing about looker's post was odd

frog's post 662 - I don't get this. feels a load of hot air, no real substance

Nosferatu - your posts stink.
you tag raya as scummy - twive, and don't go anywhere with that thought.
random vote on the banana slot
random vote on shelly

how bored are you? are you just randomly interacting with this game? I see no content from you at all. be better

at italiano - I don't get why you single out Not mafia as being ok>

has ayone played with call for judgement before? are their very earnest posts typical? do they normally post like this as town/hide when scum?

oof yeah i really wanna lynch in cfj, shelly, enigma, or walter. like really really. they cant all be scum but this is some serious opportunism, id be surprised if there arent at least 2 scum in there maybe even all three if walter is scum.

don't like posts like this. caling out a third of the game and saying there is likely to be a scum in there...well duh. it feels like a post they can circle back later to to say "look, I always thought they were scum"

i still feel like cfj will be easy to evaluate after some flips, but is a bit messy today. i am suspicious, but dont want to lynch there today. that said, VOTE: shelly

i dont think its in town's best interest to discuss my vote movement at this time, but im happy to discuss the merits of a vote on shelly or the merits of a vote on walter. im guessing raya will understand what i mean based on past mind-melding at the very least.

nope you don't get to do this. you don't get to say "we aren't allowed to talk about my very cryptic post". why are so many people in this game being like this??

You didn't understand my motivation here in this post, and also gave it a superficial assessment. Assuming that you're town then I need to be able to understand you or establish some kind of common ground or we won't be able to discuss anything. Especially since you're playing in a way that makes you a very null read.

Your response makes it appear as though my thoughts about what you were trying to say were way off-base, and you offered no additional follow-up.

My thought process is that you're a dedicated null player that appears to be skim reading my posts or unable to understand them, are resisting my attempts to understand you, are shading my attempts at scum hunting, and I will BW you now on D1 to make my life easier.

You asked for more examples or evidence of how you're not reading or understanding my posts so here's another one:

thoughts on frogster

had a strong red on nosferatu earyl game, loads of long posts.
then switched and said gamma and banana were...but not the associated long posts with evidence.

back to long log posts on rc enimgma

528 - vague post hinting at scum but not disclosing any actual reads

weird read on CFJ about them being scum, but not wanting to lynch. instead focussing on nosferatu and banana

662 - raya is now scum

734 - wants to look at walter in case they are scum (and later asks permission from not mafia to join that wagon)

overall, they are throwing a lot of scum reads around. sticks with them but quickly moves onto the next shiny thing. not impressed

(tryng to go trough these in order of number of posts)

In #1 of 662 there was more to that paragraph than "Raya is scum now." I believe that you just read the first line and glazed over the rest.

In the post I quoted above, in all the areas you complained about long posts, I also believe you did not even read those same posts at all, since you were even able to provide a summary of them here. If I supply an explanation for a read, you say the post is too long and you skip it, if I don't, you say that I don't supply explanations for my reads. That's shading and could even be a scum motivation coming from you.

[Frogsterking]

In your ISO in 769 you

*weren't

able to provide a summary of my posts which you complained were long, and were clearly skimming and making incorrect statements about the shorter posts you did read.

[Frogsterking]

Have I provided enough examples that you're unable to understand my posts geraintm, or would you like more? And would you like me to sort them for you chronologically or in order of significance?

[Frogsterking]

Also I do think that Nosferatu's recent posts are much more pro town, so at this point while I'm still skeptical of Nosferatu I'm happiest with where my vote is currently at because of my earlier read on Banana.

Have you gained any new reads/insight into the shelly/Banana slot since #488? That's quite an old read, so I'm wondering if anything's happened since to confirm your view or to make you re-evaluate (especially as your read on Gamma, in the same post, seems to have evolved somewhat).

I have not seen anything I felt was AI from the Banana/shelly slot since Banana's town read on Nosferatu which I believed was inauthentic. The idea that my read on Nosferatu has evolved and I'm more open to his being town just makes that moment look even worse for the Banana/shelly slot imo.

You're also very correct that my read on Gamma has evolved somewhat, I did not share because it went in a circle and I wasn't sure if my observations would be helpful. I currently view the slot as null with a slight scum lean if anything, mainly because I believe his play would be very simple to execute from a scum pov.

I noted that his pushes on other players this game seem impotent, like here:

Helpful scumplay is still scumplay
Why do you think it’s worth keeping active scum alive?

Helpful scumplay is still scumplay
Why do you think it’s worth keeping active scum alive?

Explain to me how we will lynch three players on D1 and I will.

We won’t. Now explain how anything scum does isn’t going to be in service of an agenda on the macro level

I believe if his intention here were to push me for scum hunting purposes this was pretty weak and easy to fake on his part (and subsequently on mine), he could have at least anticipated my first response in 620 and come up with something better. I don't think the idea of having a priority of elimination is beyond Gamma's grasp.

[Frogsterking]

@cfj

I had a question for you as well, when you were doing meta on geraintm was there any difference in his attitude toward the other players between alignment? Namely is what I'm observing about his skim-reading and shade toward me this game consistent with his behavior in the past as town and/or scum?

[Frogsterking]

• I'm surprised there's not more consolidation of wagons before deadline.

---

VOTE: geraintm

If geraintm is scum, what purpose do you feel his vote on Not_Mafia serves? Do you feel it's a vanity? Is it distancing? Do you feel it's so that he doesn't have to jump on the bigger Italiano wagon?

Check the meta CFJ did, I believe geraintm always votes semi-randomly D1.

[Frogsterking]

I think we have the best chance of policy lynching geraintm or Banana/shelly because less people are also town reading them than CFJ, Italiano or Walter. I'm personally willing to switch from the geraintm to the Banana/shelly slot and I believe I've seen at least a couple others say they're willing to as well.

Even though there are a lot of BWs, I still feel it's not a lot to uh, keep track, of.

[Frogsterking]

I'm not sure how I feel about NM on D1.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: shelly

Okay let's end of day gogo between

geraintm

or

Banana/shelly

my first pick is shelly and I'll switch back to geraintm if necessary.

[Frogsterking]

Okay then, looks like the main options might include

Walter

, though based on the pool everyone has said they're okay with voting Banana/shelly definitely seems the most viable BW, I trink.

[Frogsterking]

I'm still feeling strong about the shelly wagon. I'm tempted to do an ISO on Walter, depending on how long this deadline is going to be in place. Still a town lean for me.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: CFJ

He tried to pull the BW off shelly yesterday.

[Frogsterking]

Less than four hours to go. Where is everyone?

@Looker: I don't think there's time to build a geraintm wagon at this point, with only two votes on it; you posted recently, please move if you're online. I would prefer you to move onto Walter; however, if you think that Walter is town and/or shelly is scum, and place the fifth vote on the shelly wagon as a consequence, then I'll provide the sixth vote on the shelly wagon in 1½-2 hours from now in order to avoid hitting deadline.

shelly is posting elsewhere (e.g. in url=[https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12108322]this completed game[/url], about 40 minutes ago). Hopefully she turns up here soon.

That's… a really awkward time to pause deadline at, because it means I (and everyone else) have to check the thread every 2 hours or so for the rest of the Day in order to move to a consensus wagon to avoid deadline, and that could happen at any random time of day. I can't reasonably be online constantly.

I'm wondering whether showing lack of interest in this game in particular (shelly has apparently forgotten about it while signing up for new games elsewhere) is a towntell for shelly (even though it would be a scumtell for many players). Her first game here was as scum (flying solo from N1 onwards) and she apparently really enjoyed it. (She also has a list of completed and current games in her signature, and this one isn't listed.)

[Frogsterking]

I will hammer whichever wagon hits E-1 first as soon as it hits E-1 no questions asked. Claims out if ya got em.

this post never comes from town

ur so cracked

honestly ill switch to shellyc

VOTE: shellyc

i town read this slot but i really don't like who's on the walter wagon with me

I'm tempted to town read Nosferatu for the end of day switch here.

[Frogsterking]

I can’t say I expected that execute flip, or that kill
Maybe I need to reset?

I'm scum reading this comment.

[Frogsterking]

I don't believe that the wagon was scum driven. I believe it wasn't intended by scum.

The TFN neighborhood thing makes sense given the theory I floated yesterday about the setup being a 9-4, with more prs to come for town. I'm actually imagining this setup now as a series of two-person town neighborhoods vs four scum. Maybe one neighborhood is one town one scum.

In my current view of the game CFJ is angry because he believes shelly lost the game for scum, and given it's a traditional 10-3 setup, I believe there were no scum on the shelly wagon, and one on each of the others:

Gamma on the geraintm wagon, CFJ on Walter wagon and shelly on her own Italiano wagon.

Given a 9-4 I think there was a single scum on the shelly wagon, and my first guess is tayl0r. She doesn't seem very happy that a mafia got lynched D1 + a VT died, and she seems a little anxious for town cred.

[Frogsterking]

And I appreciate that a lot. It's going to come up eventually, but I am the Friendly town neighbor and I share a neighborhood with Walter.

Do you have the ability to confirm yourself to people overnight?

If so, who did you confirm yourself to last night?

ok italiano. its time for you and walter to explain why you were so confident in each other yesterday. i dont like your entrance to today, and while i covered for you yesterday i think you owe an explanation to everyone for what you crumbed yesterday.

And I appreciate that a lot. It's going to come up eventually, but I am the Friendly town neighbor and I share a neighborhood with Walter.

and did the mod confirm to you that walter is town?

This is true
Me and italiano are in a neighborhood

ok but do you know each other's roles? because a scum-town neighborhood is definitely a thing

I'm reading panic here.

[Frogsterking]

Panic from both the tayl0r and CFJ slots.

[Frogsterking]

I'm very curious what power roles scum have available to them in a normal setup. Does anyone mind giving a brief summary of the current normal setup meta on the scum side?

[Frogsterking]

Player List:
ItalianoVD claims hood
callforjudgement claims no hood
Gamma Emerald
Looker
geraintm
Raya36 claims no hood
Frogsterking claims no hood
Nosferatu
RCEnigma
Tayl0r Swift
WaltertheDunce10 claims hood

[Frogsterking]

Panic from both the tayl0r and CFJ slots.

what sort of panic do you think im in? what exactly do you think is causing me to panic?

I don't know the type or cause of what I'm perceiving to be panic, it's just how I would describe the tone of your posts. I'd expect town to be somewhat relieved or even emboldened over the results of the previous night and day alone. Then fmpov Italiano brings even more good news for town with his claim and I didn't read a positive emotional response from you then either.

If there was a scum on the shelly wagon, which I don't believe is necessarily true, based on your D2 opening I think you're the most likely.

At this point in time if the setup is 10-3 I believe the scumteam is Gamma, CFJ and shelly, if the setup is 9-4 I would add you to that list.

[Frogsterking]

Player List:

ItalianoVD claims hood
WaltertheDunce10 claims hood

Gamma Emerald
Tayl0r Swift
Looker
geraintm
RCEnigma
Nosferatu

Raya36 claims no hood
Frogsterking claims no hood
callforjudgement claims no hood

[Frogsterking]

I missed geraintm's claim:

Player List:

ItalianoVD claims hood
WaltertheDunce10 claims hood

Gamma Emerald
Tayl0r Swift
Looker
RCEnigma
Nosferatu

geraintm claims no hood
Raya36 claims no hood
Frogsterking claims no hood
callforjudgement claims no hood

[Frogsterking]

Also I read the rules about setup creation last night and was unclear about setup flavor and roles allowed:

Based on the flavor of the setup and the multi-action rule, providing scum have some special power to offset the power of the friendly town neighborhood instead of being a 9-4, I'd expect arsonist to be a reasonable consideration, providing flavor is allowed to be some kind of clue (making the setup a true "cinder" "block"). However I was unclear if the flavor was allowed to be related to the setup in this way or even if arsonist was allowed in normals.

[Frogsterking]

Arsonist is not a possible role in a Normal. The list of roles which are allowed is on the wiki, at Normal Game. Any roles that aren't listed there cannot be in the setup.

The flavour is not supposed to be related to the setup. (In most Normals, the flavour is designed by the moderator, but the setup is designed by someone else. According to #0, the setup for this one was designed by the backup moderator.)

A Friendly Neighbour Neighbour (with no confirmation about the alignment of their neighbour) isn't all

that

powerful, not to the extent that scum would need unusual powers to offset it. You could put another two roles of equivalent power into the same setup, against a three-Goon team, and the resulting setup would only be slightly townsided.

Fair enough.

[Frogsterking]

For what it's worth I'm null reading the fake-claim and I already lightly townread the RCE slot and I will continue to do so.

I'm also null reading that tayl0r and RCE assumed I was in a neighborhood because I can see how one would do that from my posts.

I'd actually believed that RCE and Nos might be in a neighborhood, along with pretty much anyone else. I wasn't trying to imply that I was in one myself. I also theorized the setup is a 9-4 and there is potentially an arsonist in the setup so comparatively I don't think my theory the setup was a series of neighborhoods was really all that out there.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Gamma

I feel like scum are lying low today. Most of the active posters look townie. The two largest wagons don't look very promising, especially the RCE wagon looks quite bad.

I'm going to consolidate my baby wagon with Italiano's baby wagon. Gamma seems like a strong choice, behaviorally very easy for scum to hide in that slot, lots of weak pushes without using his vote very much, a one-dimensional mildly sarcastic + angry tone in almost all of his interactions, and he was off wagon yesterday.

[Frogsterking]

After rereading Frogster (and thinking about the nightkill somewhat), I think that Frogsterking is town. Not_Mafia's play was, whilst not actually scummy, very anti-town (and Frogster picked up on that). So I'm pretty sure that Frogster would consider Not_Mafia's presence an asset to scum, and there's pretty much no way that a hypothetically scum Frogster would make that kill. (Sometimes scum make non-obvious kills for WIFOM purposes, but I don't think that a hypothetically scum Frogster would expect town to reason "Not_Mafia dead → Frogster town", so this would only be useful for WIFOM if he had a buddy point it out, and this hasn't happened.)

I was townreading Frogster anyway, though, even before the nightkill (his reads are bad but that doesn't make him scum).

---

Also, @

Not_Mafia

, just in case you're reading this from the dead thread:

Can flashwagon Walter please, italiano is a vig kill not a lynch

Even D1, some players were picking up on the possibility that Italiano was a confirmable power role (I saw Mason as a possibility, but thought that scum was a stronger possibility, and of course if Italiano was on the point of elimination as a Mason he would be able to claim out of it so that was no reason not to push him). He was, in fact, a confirmable power role. Those players are the worst possible slots to vig because if you wagon them and they claim, now you can let them confirm themself overnight and you get a second town-controlled kill; but if you nightkill them as town, then they don't get a chance to demonstrate why you're wrong about them. (This is especially important because players who are confirmable as town tend to put less effort into showing themselves as town through their dayplay!)

I'll be hopeful that you have a good explanation for this postgame. If it was just pure trolling, then you were playing quite heavily against your win condition.

"Cinderblock", a mafia short story by Frogserking.

______________

D1

Frogster: *Pushes hard for BW on shelly, now confirmed mafia goon.*

CFJ: *Tries hard to pull BW off of shelly, now confirmed mafia goon.*

D2

CFJ: "I reread Frogster and his reads are bad, he seems town tho hurr hurrr."

______________

VOTE: CFJ

[Frogsterking]

@

Frogsterking

: Have you forgotten your screenfuls-long posts on Nosferatu? #255 and #288.

By comparison, you did basically nothing to push shelly. You had a mild scumread in #488 and didn't make any cases for a stronger read all Day (and admitted as much in #784). The only actual pushing you did was #854, very late in the Day (it's after the deadline freeze had occurred).

You're currently posting as though you had a super-strong read on shelly throughout, but your day 1 posts don't match that very well.

"Cinderblock", a mafia short story by Frogserking, V2.

______________

D1

Frogster: *Pushes moderately for a BW on shelly, now confirmed mafia goon.*

CFJ: *Tries hard to pull BW off of shelly, now confirmed mafia goon.*

D2

CFJ: "I reread Frogster and his reads are bad, he seems town tho hurr hurrr."

______________

VOTE: CFJ

[Frogsterking]

@

Frogsterking

:

Have you forgotten your screenfuls-long posts on Nosferatu? #255 and #288.

By comparison, you did basically nothing to push shelly. You had a mild scumread in #488 and didn't make any cases for a stronger read all Day (and admitted as much in #784). The only actual pushing you did was #854, very late in the Day (it's after the deadline freeze had occurred).

You're currently posting as though you had a super-strong read on shelly throughout, but your day 1 posts don't match that very well.

"Cinderblock", a mafia short story by Frogserking, V2.

______________

D1

Frogster: *Pushes moderately for a BW on shelly, now confirmed mafia goon.*

CFJ: *Tries hard to pull BW off of shelly, now confirmed mafia goon.*

D2

CFJ: "I reread Frogster and his reads are bad, he seems town tho hurr hurrr."

______________

VOTE: CFJ

Also: did I miss something here--

when was Nosferatu confirmed to be town?

Looks like a scum slip to me. How are you able to argue with confidence that my reads are inaccurate when the only confirmed read was right? Seems like you could only do that if you already know the alignment of the other players.

[Frogsterking]

After rereading Frogster (and thinking about the nightkill somewhat), I think that Frogsterking is town. Not_Mafia's play was, whilst not actually scummy, very anti-town (and Frogster picked up on that). So I'm pretty sure that Frogster would consider Not_Mafia's presence an asset to scum, and there's pretty much no way that a hypothetically scum Frogster would make that kill. (Sometimes scum make non-obvious kills for WIFOM purposes, but I don't think that a hypothetically scum Frogster would expect town to reason "Not_Mafia dead → Frogster town", so this would only be useful for WIFOM if he had a buddy point it out, and this hasn't happened.)

I was townreading Frogster anyway, though, even before the nightkill (his reads are bad but that doesn't make him scum).

---

Also, @

Not_Mafia

, just in case you're reading this from the dead thread:

Can flashwagon Walter please, italiano is a vig kill not a lynch

Even D1, some players were picking up on the possibility that Italiano was a confirmable power role (I saw Mason as a possibility, but thought that scum was a stronger possibility, and of course if Italiano was on the point of elimination as a Mason he would be able to claim out of it so that was no reason not to push him). He was, in fact, a confirmable power role. Those players are the worst possible slots to vig because if you wagon them and they claim, now you can let them confirm themself overnight and you get a second town-controlled kill; but if you nightkill them as town, then they don't get a chance to demonstrate why you're wrong about them. (This is especially important because players who are confirmable as town tend to put less effort into showing themselves as town through their dayplay!)

I'll be hopeful that you have a good explanation for this postgame. If it was just pure trolling, then you were playing quite heavily against your win condition.

Given that it had the opposite of the desired effect, I probably should explain this post.

The Not_Mafia kill N1 was outright bizarre, and combined with the surprising shelly flip D1, left me very confused as to what was going on; it felt like scum were intentionally trolling rather than trying to play normally (why doesn't scum shelly turn up and crossvote Walter? why kill the least useful townie in the game?) One explanation that neatly explains those two events is for Walter to be scum, but it doesn't seem to fit well with the rest of the gamestate.

As such, I was wondering whether the N_M kill was a vig kill rather than a scum kill (with the scum kill having been somehow prevented). I generally prefer to choose players who are being widely scumread as vig targets, but many players prefer to "policy vig" useless or lurky townies, and N_M really stands out as a vig kill when chosen on that basis.

I also suspected that the most likely Vigilante was Frogsterking (who was one of the players most strongly concerned with the N_M slot, and #809 looks like a breadcrumb to help town deduce Frogster's actions post-flip), leading to a townread (Vigilantes can't be scum), and a lot of alarm, because

I'm the Vigilante's top scumread

, which bodes pretty badly for N2. So I posted #1002 in an attempt to send a signal that would be picked up by a hypothetical vig Frogster, saying in effect "I think you made the kill last night, I was townreading you anyway but am townreading you more strongly because of it", hoping that he would realise that I was town as a consequence (if I'm vigreading someone and I'm scum, I could just shoot them and nobody would figure out it was me who had vigread them; although I only formed the vigread on D2, if I were hypothetically scum I would have the information to do this N1). I also included, in the same post, a discussion of vigilantes in order to clarify what the signal was about. Unfortunately, this sort of signal has to be quite subtle to stop scum pickign up on it.

Instead, Frogsterking started tunnelling me, which is not the reaction I expected and is pretty harmful to the gamestate. (It also rather increases the chance that I'm wrong about him being a Vigilante.)

Huh?

[Frogsterking]

Gamma starting to town tell now in recent posts leaves me with a solid scum read on the CFJ slot.

[Frogsterking]

Gamma starting to town tell now in recent posts leaves me with a solid scum read on the CFJ slot.

Based on process of elimination.

[Frogsterking]

Gamma starting to town tell now in recent posts leaves me with a solid scum read on the CFJ slot.

But you unvoted Gamma and for cfj before Gamma even said anything.

Yes I preferred CFJ over Gamma even before Gamma started town telling. CFJ's townread on me today looked very inauthentic.

[Frogsterking]

@Frogsterking: look at what Gamma has said about cfj in 1031 from the perspective that cfj is scum. Feels good right?

Now look at it from the perspective that cfj is town. Do you get the same good feeling?

On its own in 1031 Gamma looks poor from the perspective that CFJ is town, Gamma coming back though in 1034 is solid because he's correct I was already pushing CFJ for reasons unrelated to anything CFJ is talking about. Gamma's subsequent tie-in with the controversy over the SJR/Looker slot I'm also reading as townie attempts to solve.

I'm reading the Gamma slot as null now instead of null leaning scum.

[Frogsterking]

Why are we revealing the extent of power town has available to them and who has it for the scum?

[Frogsterking]

It's not like you're discussing the mechanics of the setup, it's just laying out the options for the night kill.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: CFJ again

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: CFJ again

why is this scummy rather than anti-town?

I agree it's anti-town rather than scummy.

There are other reasons why I consider CFJ to be scummy, in short: he tried to pull the BW off of a confirmed scum player, he seemed frustrated after the scum player got lynched, and he posted an inauthentic looking town read on me in 1002.

If CFJ is supposed to be anti-town then I've been reading the slot wrong all game.

Posts like this toward the beginning of D1 caused me to read CFJ as pro-town (at least in communication, if not in decision-making) from the very beginning:

(PEDIT: re #58)

Why do you care about whether we're cultured, as opposed to whether we're scum? This is a Mafia game, not a classics exam. (Also, #4 doesn't have a single correct answer; Assyria no longer exists and its capital changed over time.)

There's only one town-indicative reason I can think of to make a post like #44, and if it were the actual reason, I'd expect you to have mentioned it.

As for your previous comment: I know I post a lot of text sometimes, but I'm trying to convince people to play in a more town-sided way. In the current metagame, town wins quite easily when townies put in effort, scum win quite easily when they don't. There are a lot of players out there (some of them in this game; hi Not_Mafia!) who are good players when they put their minds to it, but more commonly just end up passively floating through the game and eventually making everyone impossible to read. I therefore see trying to persuade people to get their brains into gear as important, as I'm unlikely to win otherwise.


PEDIT re #59: I believe we're out of RVS as soon as anyone posts anything that can be scumhunted from. We were out of RVS

before

my two posts, not

because of

them. That's why I didn't cast a random vote, and why I don't expect any more random voting in this game.

For a slot that approached the game as pro-town I'm seeing increasingly anti-town play from CFJ. This makes sense from a scum!CFJ perspective as he's now on D2 down one partner and failed to hit a PR N1 and still doesn't even know exactly what town has available to them (shelly failed to role phish before her death which I believe caused his frustration with her inactivity.)

For the reasons above, I'm reading these actions as aggressive scum play rather than merely anti-town because the progression of the game hasn't allowed CFJ to play pro-town because he would likely lose.

[Frogsterking]

@CFJ

I believe you are persuasive and playing against town in this game and you have no chance of persuading me otherwise. If you successfully BW another player who flips scum or are innoed by a PR then I will consider changing my mind. Because of this, if you're town, you may as well just scum hunt instead of trying to change my mind.

I will try to elaborate why I interpret 1002 the way I do based on your questions here:

There are other reasons why I consider CFJ to be scummy, in short: he tried to pull the BW off of a confirmed scum player, he seemed frustrated after the scum player got lynched, and he posted an inauthentic looking town read on me in 1002.

I was frustrated with the scumflip D1. Obviously it's very helpful in terms of our win condition, but on the flipside of that, it doesn't make any sense (and nor does the nightkill). OK, so one scum was apparently unaware that this game was happening, which increases the chance that scum simply couldn't control the D1 voting (alternatively, one scum was intentionally avoiding the game, but that makes less sense rather than more). But even so, how often does it happen that scum end up getting voted out D1, when there's a viable counterwagon and many/most of the players on the wagon don't even think they're scum?

To me, scumhunting/townhunting is all about trying to figure out what everyone else is thinking. In a situation like this, I have no idea at all what scum were thinking, and that makes it very hard to work out what I should be looking for.


@

Frogster

: in terms of the "inauthentic townread", I've explained where my townread came from. Is there part of my reasoning that you specifically think can't/doesn't come from town? If so, which? I'm concerned that you think the read is inauthentic because you think I'm scum, rather than vice versa.

If I walked into a store and you tried to sell me your townread and 1002 was the pitch, I would say no and walk away. It's a behavioral read. It's like not knowing why one actor is bad versus another actor is good. Some people have more of an ear for that type of thing, others need to study it for a while and then they can tell.

I don't know if town!CFJ would townread me or not, maybe town!CFJ would townread me for similar reasons, I simply don't believe town!CFJ wrote 1002. I could be wrong, and I'm very confident that I could be wrong, enough so to give it a number (albeit non-scientific and for fun): 30% 1002 could be written by town!CFJ in the timespan and context it was posted.

It reminded me of this moment from D1:

Am I the only one that thinks that is townreading Nos? I don't understand the scumreads on him and the votes on him feel opportunistic at best

Am I the only one that thinks that is townreading Nos? I don't understand the scumreads on him and the votes on him feel opportunistic at best

Could you explain why? I’m open to see things differently.

Tone feels town, I have also done the exact same thing as town multiple times myself in the past.

Mainly, I don't see the play here from a scum POV. Especially with the self vote. I understand the "AtE" argument but it feels like suboptimal play, he could just attempt to brush off the criticism as scum instead of going ham like this and self voting

I read posts like these and it shoots whoever to the top of my scum list. I believe posts like these are a sign that banana is not a very skilled liar, which is a part of his charm, and his charm was the reason he was being town read.

I feel the same way about 1002, I feel it's a sign you're not a skilled liar, and instead of relying on charm to not get lynched (like banana) you're relying on being persuasive. The difference between you and banana here is that you were already at the top of my scum list, and you knew it, and the townread was on me, hence my pushing much more adamantly for you.

And I disagree about your feelings of D1 lynches, it has more to do with the players who roll scum than it does with the player making the reads. If the scum team makes mistakes and the other players call them out, they will get lynched. If the scum team doesn't make mistakes or doesn't get called out they will probably not get lynched. If the scum team doesn't make mistakes, doesn't get called out, and are very coordinated with each other, there is an even less likely chance they will get lynched.

In this case it appears that at least one player made a mistake and got called out, and the scum team may not be very coordinated either, though we don't know that yet. I don't believe this is an unreasonable outcome of D1.

[Frogsterking]

Another question is and I’m not well versed in this site’s meta, but is towncred the only thought process behind bussing? Like just because it doesn’t make sense does it mean we disregard it?

I +1 this question because I'm not very familiar with this site's meta, especially currently, and bussing seems like something that varies a lot between metas.

[Frogsterking]

I’m gonna go finish my ISO’s but before I do I wanna say this: there are two things on the table that is concerning for the town imo

1) My claim and
2) The shelly wagon

I think if we can figure out what’s going on with this shelly wagon then I will be okay revealing my night’s actions and answering any other questions, but to me my claim is insignificant at the moment and instead of harping on it we should try to figure out what’s going on.

I agree with these two and I would also add RCE's fake claim to the list.

[Frogsterking]

My most recent thoughts were that Raya is scum and Looker is leaning town.

[Frogsterking]

Votecount 1.FINAL

shellyc(7)

~ Tayl0r Swift(48), Frogsterking(47), ItalianoVD(69), WaltertheDunce10(75), Nosferatu(85), RCEnigma(67), geraintm(74)

-- HAMMER

WaltertheDunce10(3)

~ Raya36(60), Not_Mafia(29), callforjudgement(70)

geraintm(2)

~ Gamma Emerald(82), Looker(56)

ItalianoVD(1)

~ shellyc(70)


Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-06 11:18:30)

Of the 4 remaining offwagon slots, coming into the day I had sjreaver/looker as the most likely town in that grouping. But lookers reasoning and timing on gerain is a lot less natural than gammas in general + a couple of town indicators in their iso puts gamma up there for now.

Looker has been on a downward trajectory since repping in but I don't know if that's necessarily scummy or if it's just him wanting to be contrarian.

Yeah I feel that. I rationalized this with the idea that Looker is an unorthodox player, similar to the player he replaced, SJReaver, and is attempting to scumhunt/gamesolve by his own means, and kept Looker as a townlean.

[Frogsterking]

Okay so I want to give my thoughts on all the ISO’s I’ve done in connection with the banana/shelly slot. First:

UNVOTE: callforjudgment

Of course I will be referring to 1145 & 1170. I placed them in thread as reference for not only myself, but for the town as well. Not sure if anyone else has read them both and has come up with their own theories/opinions, but that was the purpose. I have a lot to get into, so this is the first post of many.

There were a lot of mentions to the banana/shelly slot; everyone in the playerlist mentioned the slot at least once. However when it came to actual interactions (speaking directly to the slot) I grouped them like so:

~ interactions for the sake of having interactions; no follow up
~ interactions to get a read; sort the slot, answer questions, push, etc.
~ no interactions at all

Now those who fit the first category are (Taylor, Looker, RCEnigma). Those who fit the second category are (Walter, myself, Raya, Nosferatu, geraintm, gamma, callforjudgment) Those in the last category is (Frogsterking)

I also did an iso on the banana/shelly slot and noticed something: In 82 Banana sort of gives callforjudgment a pass for his long post and doesn’t scumread him. In 691 shellyc said she saw a town mindset from call.

Why was this slot the only one that saw callforjudgment as possible town, while pretty much everyone else saw him as scummy or scumread him? Now I don’t know about Banana, but Shelly has precedence for bussing her partner and I don’t see her buddying up at all. Although the slot didn’t actually vote for call I think if call was scum I believe both Banana and shelly would have either distanced or bussed or at the very least placed him down as a scumread, should he flip (given he was getting heat for some time). This makes me think that callforjudgment is actually town.

I think you're underestimating shelly, she does more random things than you expect.

[Frogsterking]

I view Raya and CFJ as the enemy, and CFJ must be eliminated first because he's the loudest and most active.

[Frogsterking]

Raya if you scum read CFJ why not join his wagon? You've commented multiple times now you view him as scummy.

[Frogsterking]

Anyone come to a similar conclusion about callforjudgment in 1275? Or am I off in this?

That’s not really part of my read on him at all

My heart and my gut say to townread cfj, but my head is telling me the few bits of potentially scummy behavior from him are worth pursuing
So I’d vote him around deadline but I’d rather listen to my gut vs. my head

This post looks like horse crap. Shoot Gamma up to FoS #2.

Raya it's your insistence on voting Walter that make me read you as scum or stubborn townie.

[Frogsterking]

@Frogsterking: Could you tell me why you went after geraintm so hard for suspecting you on Day 1, but did not even look Banana’s way when he voted for you in 218. I would think you would have said something to Banana, especially given how hard you did interact with geraintm for 769.

I was on tilt that morning.

[Frogsterking]

@Frogsterking: Could you tell me why you went after geraintm so hard for suspecting you on Day 1, but did not even look Banana’s way when he voted for you in 218. I would think you would have said something to Banana, especially given how hard you did interact with geraintm for 769.

I was on tilt that morning.

Okay, I guess I should say why DIDN’T you go after Banana the same way you did geraintm?

Banana didn't put me on tilt.

[Frogsterking]

@Looker

Why did you choose the name Looker for your account?

I thought it could be a play on words for "Lurker" for an alt or be a reference to seeing the truth and game solving in a bravura way.

[Frogsterking]

Or both.

[Frogsterking]

Anyone come to a similar conclusion about callforjudgment in 1275? Or am I off in this?

That’s not really part of my read on him at all

My heart and my gut say to townread cfj, but my head is telling me the few bits of potentially scummy behavior from him are worth pursuing
So I’d vote him around deadline but I’d rather listen to my gut vs. my head

This post looks like horse crap. Shoot Gamma up to FoS #2.

Raya it's your insistence on voting Walter that make me read you as scum or stubborn townie.

scum or stubborn townie isnt much of a read. like what are the odds that someone is either scum or town? pretty sure its 95% or so in this setup. why should we think scum rather than town? my PoE is now raya, cfj, and froggy

Sometimes townies will just tunnel on one particular player for an entire game, sometimes scum will imitate this behavior because it's easy to hide in and convenient for them. I believe she's doing one or the other, which makes her an OK lynch.

Also, I wasn't aware any third parties are possible in this setup.

[Frogsterking]

I think Looker harbors resentment toward himself which is why he keeps self-voting.

[Frogsterking]

I think Looker harbors resentment toward himself which is why he keeps self-voting.

Is that AI for you Frog?

No.

[Frogsterking]

I think NM was killed because scum thought he was a pr since he didn't say that much.

[Frogsterking]

Scum should kill Italiano

Can flashwagon Walter please, italiano is a vig kill not a lynch

Have you changed your mind about #105? If not, why do you want the scum and a hypothetical vig to aim at the same target?

I think this was the birth of CFJ's bizarre post earlier where he thought I was vig.

I think it's a result of overly-literal overthinking and a very suspicious temperament.

I think CFJ was suspicious that NM was literally softing vig here then over-thought it, and that's why NM was the night kill.

[Frogsterking]

CFJ also may just have been role phishing me earlier as well.

[Frogsterking]

Here's what I just thought of:

NM being killed was difficult to understand, the best theories I saw were floated earlier by RCE and Nosferatu, that it was a pr hunt, and that it was too difficult to understand, respectively.

I just came to a realization which builds off of BOTH of these theories.

CFJ made these two posts as part of a chain pain post earlier in D2:

After rereading Frogster (and thinking about the nightkill somewhat), I think that Frogsterking is town. Not_Mafia's play was, whilst not actually scummy, very anti-town (and Frogster picked up on that). So I'm pretty sure that Frogster would consider Not_Mafia's presence an asset to scum, and there's pretty much no way that a hypothetically scum Frogster would make that kill. (Sometimes scum make non-obvious kills for WIFOM purposes, but I don't think that a hypothetically scum Frogster would expect town to reason "Not_Mafia dead → Frogster town", so this would only be useful for WIFOM if he had a buddy point it out, and this hasn't happened.)

I was townreading Frogster anyway, though, even before the nightkill (his reads are bad but that doesn't make him scum).

---

Also, @

Not_Mafia

, just in case you're reading this from the dead thread:

Can flashwagon Walter please, italiano is a vig kill not a lynch

Even D1, some players were picking up on the possibility that Italiano was a confirmable power role (I saw Mason as a possibility, but thought that scum was a stronger possibility, and of course if Italiano was on the point of elimination as a Mason he would be able to claim out of it so that was no reason not to push him). He was, in fact, a confirmable power role. Those players are the worst possible slots to vig because if you wagon them and they claim, now you can let them confirm themself overnight and you get a second town-controlled kill; but if you nightkill them as town, then they don't get a chance to demonstrate why you're wrong about them. (This is especially important because players who are confirmable as town tend to put less effort into showing themselves as town through their dayplay!)

I'll be hopeful that you have a good explanation for this postgame. If it was just pure trolling, then you were playing quite heavily against your win condition.

After rereading Frogster (and thinking about the nightkill somewhat), I think that Frogsterking is town. Not_Mafia's play was, whilst not actually scummy, very anti-town (and Frogster picked up on that). So I'm pretty sure that Frogster would consider Not_Mafia's presence an asset to scum, and there's pretty much no way that a hypothetically scum Frogster would make that kill. (Sometimes scum make non-obvious kills for WIFOM purposes, but I don't think that a hypothetically scum Frogster would expect town to reason "Not_Mafia dead → Frogster town", so this would only be useful for WIFOM if he had a buddy point it out, and this hasn't happened.)

I was townreading Frogster anyway, though, even before the nightkill (his reads are bad but that doesn't make him scum).

---

Also, @

Not_Mafia

, just in case you're reading this from the dead thread:

Can flashwagon Walter please, italiano is a vig kill not a lynch

Even D1, some players were picking up on the possibility that Italiano was a confirmable power role (I saw Mason as a possibility, but thought that scum was a stronger possibility, and of course if Italiano was on the point of elimination as a Mason he would be able to claim out of it so that was no reason not to push him). He was, in fact, a confirmable power role. Those players are the worst possible slots to vig because if you wagon them and they claim, now you can let them confirm themself overnight and you get a second town-controlled kill; but if you nightkill them as town, then they don't get a chance to demonstrate why you're wrong about them. (This is especially important because players who are confirmable as town tend to put less effort into showing themselves as town through their dayplay!)

I'll be hopeful that you have a good explanation for this postgame. If it was just pure trolling, then you were playing quite heavily against your win condition.

Given that it had the opposite of the desired effect, I probably should explain this post.

The Not_Mafia kill N1 was outright bizarre, and combined with the surprising shelly flip D1, left me very confused as to what was going on; it felt like scum were intentionally trolling rather than trying to play normally (why doesn't scum shelly turn up and crossvote Walter? why kill the least useful townie in the game?) One explanation that neatly explains those two events is for Walter to be scum, but it doesn't seem to fit well with the rest of the gamestate.

As such, I was wondering whether the N_M kill was a vig kill rather than a scum kill (with the scum kill having been somehow prevented). I generally prefer to choose players who are being widely scumread as vig targets, but many players prefer to "policy vig" useless or lurky townies, and N_M really stands out as a vig kill when chosen on that basis.

I also suspected that the most likely Vigilante was Frogsterking (who was one of the players most strongly concerned with the N_M slot, and #809 looks like a breadcrumb to help town deduce Frogster's actions post-flip), leading to a townread (Vigilantes can't be scum), and a lot of alarm, because

I'm the Vigilante's top scumread

, which bodes pretty badly for N2. So I posted #1002 in an attempt to send a signal that would be picked up by a hypothetical vig Frogster, saying in effect "I think you made the kill last night, I was townreading you anyway but am townreading you more strongly because of it", hoping that he would realise that I was town as a consequence (if I'm vigreading someone and I'm scum, I could just shoot them and nobody would figure out it was me who had vigread them; although I only formed the vigread on D2, if I were hypothetically scum I would have the information to do this N1). I also included, in the same post, a discussion of vigilantes in order to clarify what the signal was about. Unfortunately, this sort of signal has to be quite subtle to stop scum pickign up on it.

Instead, Frogsterking started tunnelling me, which is not the reaction I expected and is pretty harmful to the gamestate. (It also rather increases the chance that I'm wrong about him being a Vigilante.)

I found these posts by CFJ earlier very puzzling. Why a vig? What is all this?

Which reminded me of how I felt about the NM kill. Then I remembered someone else had brought up the idea of vig on D1, it's just that CFJ was the only one who took it seriously:

Scum should kill Italiano

Can flashwagon Walter please, italiano is a vig kill not a lynch

Have you changed your mind about #105? If not, why do you want the scum and a hypothetical vig to aim at the same target?

I believe CFJ is both very in-depth and very literal, which is why the rest of us have difficulty reading his posts. I believe he's also an extremely suspicious temperament. So CFJ analyzed in great depth what he views as "NM's claim", took an overly literal interpretation as he has done frequently in this game, and decided to kill NM because he was very suspicious (which he is of most things) that NM was indeed vigilante.

I believe the idea in CFJ's post of there being a vig was very surprising because we didn't take NM's comment about a vig very seriously. However, ONE OF US did: CFJ.

I believe killing NM was also safe from CFJ's eyes because the most obvious one to gain from the night kill was Walter, not CFJ, since NM was a member of Walter's bandwagon.

Therefore I believe the most rational explanation for the NM kill is that it was a pr hunt and it was for a bizarre reason, it's because CFJ took NM's vig claim more seriously than we did.

[Frogsterking]

lets do an exercise: everyone post your gun to head scumteam of two people with one extra person who might be scum for me please. this could potentially provide very interesting data.

I think I've come full circle to my early D2 reads, Gamma + CFJ, except I feel much more strongly about them now than I did earlier.

My third choice would be Raya, especially in a situation where CFJ flipped town.

If Gamma flipped town, I think it could be pretty much anyone + CFJ.

[Frogsterking]

Okay so I want to give my thoughts on all the ISO’s I’ve done in connection with the banana/shelly slot. First:

UNVOTE: callforjudgment

Of course I will be referring to 1145 & 1170. I placed them in thread as reference for not only myself, but for the town as well. Not sure if anyone else has read them both and has come up with their own theories/opinions, but that was the purpose. I have a lot to get into, so this is the first post of many.

There were a lot of mentions to the banana/shelly slot; everyone in the playerlist mentioned the slot at least once. However when it came to actual interactions (speaking directly to the slot) I grouped them like so:

~ interactions for the sake of having interactions; no follow up
~ interactions to get a read; sort the slot, answer questions, push, etc.
~ no interactions at all

Now those who fit the first category are (Taylor, Looker, RCEnigma). Those who fit the second category are (Walter, myself, Raya, Nosferatu, geraintm, gamma, callforjudgment) Those in the last category is (Frogsterking)

I also did an iso on the banana/shelly slot and noticed something: In 82 Banana sort of gives callforjudgment a pass for his long post and doesn’t scumread him. In 691 shellyc said she saw a town mindset from call.

Why was this slot the only one that saw callforjudgment as possible town, while pretty much everyone else saw him as scummy or scumread him? Now I don’t know about Banana, but Shelly has precedence for bussing her partner and I don’t see her buddying up at all. Although the slot didn’t actually vote for call I think if call was scum I believe both Banana and shelly would have either distanced or bussed or at the very least placed him down as a scumread, should he flip (given he was getting heat for some time). This makes me think that callforjudgment is actually town.

I've also been getting that feeling from cfj in general too. Maybe a bit biased but why defend me and start a counter wagon when I'd be an easy miselim and not many questions would be asked. He even kinda set it up by saying he was worried about me trying to buddy him. Doesn't make much sense as scum.

"...why defend me and start a counter wagon when I'd be an easy miselim and not many questions would be asked."

To drag out the conflict as a distraction while he phishes for

every

pr, then pocket you (in case someone else is lynched) or collect town cred for "defending" you in case you do get lynched.

[Frogsterking]

Okay so I want to give my thoughts on all the ISO’s I’ve done in connection with the banana/shelly slot. First:

UNVOTE: callforjudgment

Of course I will be referring to 1145 & 1170. I placed them in thread as reference for not only myself, but for the town as well. Not sure if anyone else has read them both and has come up with their own theories/opinions, but that was the purpose. I have a lot to get into, so this is the first post of many.

There were a lot of mentions to the banana/shelly slot; everyone in the playerlist mentioned the slot at least once. However when it came to actual interactions (speaking directly to the slot) I grouped them like so:

~ interactions for the sake of having interactions; no follow up
~ interactions to get a read; sort the slot, answer questions, push, etc.
~ no interactions at all

Now those who fit the first category are (Taylor, Looker, RCEnigma). Those who fit the second category are (Walter, myself, Raya, Nosferatu, geraintm, gamma, callforjudgment) Those in the last category is (Frogsterking)

I also did an iso on the banana/shelly slot and noticed something: In 82 Banana sort of gives callforjudgment a pass for his long post and doesn’t scumread him. In 691 shellyc said she saw a town mindset from call.

Why was this slot the only one that saw callforjudgment as possible town, while pretty much everyone else saw him as scummy or scumread him? Now I don’t know about Banana, but Shelly has precedence for bussing her partner and I don’t see her buddying up at all. Although the slot didn’t actually vote for call I think if call was scum I believe both Banana and shelly would have either distanced or bussed or at the very least placed him down as a scumread, should he flip (given he was getting heat for some time). This makes me think that callforjudgment is actually town.

I think Shelly and CFJ probably ego-clashed which broke down the communication in the PT chat. I think CFJ probably posts a bunch of analysis in there looking for the pr, then edits it slightly and copy pastes it to the main thread as "scum hunting", explaining some of his unusual interest in the player list and strangely constructed posts.

Banana didn't want to have to listen to that or follow CFJ's instructions, so he replaced out, then Shelly replaced in and she and CFJ tried to boss each other in the mafia thread, resulting in Shelly losing interest in the main thread, because she felt like winning wouldn't be all about her.

[Frogsterking]

@

Frogsterking

: As scum, it's nearly always correct to do PR-hunting at Night (rereading the thread), while you're looking at the kill. It would be a bad idea for scum to post pages of rolefishing analysis in a daytalk thread because they couldn't make use of that information immediately, and it would mean that they weren't being focused on the game.

Spoiler:

As far as I can tell, you've never drawn scum (there are two games you were in whose records are incomplete due to a site crash, you might have been scum in those), so you might not be used to what a scum PT typically looks like. It is very rare for them to be anything like you're imagining they might be, though. If you're interested, here's a scum QT in which I was scum, in a mechanically complex game where roles were quite important, and it

still

doesn't look anything like you're imagining; there's very little bouncing ideas off of each other, and much more statements along the lines of "this is what I've figured out so far". In less mechanically complex games like Normals, there's rarely much rolefishing going on at all, it's more like "I think this person might be a power role", and even then it's usually a backup plan for if there's nobody you want to kill based on reads or WIFOM purposes. Besides, scum don't have the information to effectively work out the details of the setup on Night 1; trying to find associative tells pre-flip is hard enough, trying to solve complex balance-logic puzzles with no power role flips is even harder, and D1/N1 is just too early to effectively pull it off. So any early game PR-hunting is effectively done on the basis of "I think this player is acting abnormally scummy, but they aren't on our scumteam, maybe they're a power role".

I also don't think I've done any prompting of people to claim roles this game? I have been pushing Italiano to reveal his target, but he already has a claimed role, so that isn't revealing any additional information that's useful for scum (rather, it's trying to reveal information useful for town, by exposing a fakeclaim and aiding us in scumhunting the person he targeted).


(As a side note, Not_Mafia has been known to misuse power roles in the past, but softing vig would be an incredibly big mistake for an actual vig to make – there's no town benefit at all, and it runs the risk that scum pick up on the soft and kill you, or that town realise you're acting oddly and vote for you – so it's unlikely that an experienced player would even consider the possibility. #799 wasn't an attempt to determine if Not_Mafia had a role, it was an attempt to goad him into making a post other than his usual intentionally useless posts.)

Yes and from your posts D2 it appears as though you did perform this night analysis and you came to the conclusion NM might be a vig. I don't believe any of the other players came to a similar conclusion about NM. Therefore I FoS you for the night kill.

[Frogsterking]

I think so as well.

[Frogsterking]

@ frogster

Can flashwagon Walter please, italiano is a vig kill not a lynch

I'd be more likely to consider joining your wagon if I understood why you scum read him.

This is blatantly a post where you are trying to get someone else to make the case for you to join their wagon. you might not like the way I phrased it "asking for permission" but is the type of post people use where they want to move their vote to another wagon, cant justify it themselves so want to get someone else to write something so they can go "oh yeah, good point, I didn't see it that way, I will join you"

I read this as Frogster trying to get Not_Mafia to play more actively / less cryptically. If it had succeeded (and it was unlikely to do so), that might have been beneficial to scum (assuming Walter town) by giving an easy excuse to join the Walter wagon, but there are more obvious benefits to town in terms of reading both players. So I don't think #745 is particularly scummy.

This post is strange as well and stands out after the night kill and the bandwagon discussion today.

CFJ believes NM's play was "cryptic" which can be a synonym for secretive.

Then get this:

Out of all things CFJ could comment about he says that in a hypothetical scenario where Walter is town, provoking NM into playing less cryptically may be beneficial to scum by giving an easier excuse for them to join the Walter wagon.

How is that the first example you post when you don't even read Walter as town? And what would NM reveal that would provide an easy excuse for others to join the Walter wagon?

Town!CFJ this makes little sense, scum!CFJ who believes NM softed vig seems more likely.

From the hypothetical scenario he jumped to, it appears as though CFJ knows both NM and Walter are town, or at least suspected it heavily, and he is suspicious that NM is a vig or otherwise something valuable to town.

So in trying to offer "guidance" to geraintm on how to interpret my posts, he suggests that my attempt to get NM to open up may be detrimental to town because it will reveal that NM is the vig adding fuel to the Walter bandwagon which is ultimately TvT.

[Frogsterking]

Also, VOTE: CFJ, I hope your play matches up to your role and setup design skills

If you think the scumteam might be CFJ + Gamma, then that means this would need to be a distancing vote. Let's follow it and see where it goes.

You can grow watermelons in them
Anything that I can grow a watermelon in
When I learned I could grow watermelons in them
Assur
I have faith in God, but I don’t have faith in religion.

5.
No.
Here I developed some even better questions!
1. Is it okay to put rotting produce into an uncooked stead as a filler?
What is the cinderblock you would like most as a pet?
Are pineapples good on pizzas?

VOTE: Walther
Now you’re just wasting time and space with this

Huh.. 2 posts later..

There the CFJ vote went. Never to return again.

Is cfj seriously being wagoned for being “too towny”?

Defending him now.

Like, the random trivia on geraint + rhetoric vaguely painting geraint as town + unexplained vote on Tay + the fact he was on geraint before then makes that looks extremely suspicious

Distancing. Spoilers: this shade will not go anywhere.

Helpful scumplay is still scumplay
Why do you think it’s worth keeping active scum alive?

Helpful scumplay is still scumplay
Why do you think it’s worth keeping active scum alive?

Explain to me how we will lynch three players on D1 and I will.

We won’t. Now explain how anything scum does isn’t going to be in service of an agenda on the macro level

More shading CFJ here just for the sake of shading; ie distancing. I know, now it looks like it's potentially going somewhere, but remember: this was the scumteam Shelly flaked on it, so it's likely they weren't a fan of bussing.

With that said, RCEnigma seems pretty likely as an Italiano partner, and is also pretty likely scum if Italiano is town (even if Italiano thinks he has a good reason to wanting to increase the general confusion and antagonism surrounding the game at the moment, RCEnigma doesn't really). My main reservation against joining that wagon is that I don't much like the wagon that's there at the moment – I would have expected it to dissipate upon realising that RCEnigma has a tendency to do stupid and ill-advised gambits as town, but it didn't (in particular, the fact that Raya is still there is something of a point against Raya, as she doesn't seem to have a scumread for independent reasons). I guess I'm starting to see where the Raya wagon has come from.

This position strikes me as mildly convenient, and also a sort of hilltop positioning (where cfj is poised to progress this read in any direction)

More shading/distancing. Again, it seems like this is going somewhere, but watch later:

Anyone come to a similar conclusion about callforjudgment in 1275? Or am I off in this?

That’s not really part of my read on him at all

My heart and my gut say to townread cfj, but my head is telling me the few bits of potentially scummy behavior from him are worth pursuing
So I’d vote him around deadline but I’d rather listen to my gut vs. my head

This is where all the shading/distancing bring us, a very passionate, heart-wrenching town read?

Conclusion: Gamma is against CFJ except for when the vote counts, and when he is there he's expecting to be town read for it.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Gamma

Gamma's normally quite a mechanically minded player, so this should be the sort of gamestate he thrives in, yet he hasn't posted much toDay. I'm interested in hearing more from the slot (and I don't think my RCEnigma vote serves much of a purpose any more).

If you believe in a Gamma + CFJ then that means that this would need to be an empty distancing vote or the beginning of a bus.

@

Frogsterking

: Have you forgotten your screenfuls-long posts on Nosferatu? #255 and #288.

By comparison, you did basically nothing to push shelly. You had a mild scumread in #488 and didn't make any cases for a stronger read all Day (and admitted as much in #784). The only actual pushing you did was #854, very late in the Day (it's after the deadline freeze had occurred).

You're currently posting as though you had a super-strong read on shelly throughout, but your day 1 posts don't match that very well.

Oh hey..it's all these posts again. What about that vote on Gamma?

Pretty sure I had the MOST posts D1, so this is a bad take.

For what it's worth, my memory of your D1 play is that you had a high postcount but also hadn't done anything particularly noticeable or game-progressing; my thoughts were often along the lines of "Gamma Emerald feels like a lurker, how did the postcount get so high"? It may be because a large proportion of your posts (not all of them, but many of them) are obvious comments that could have been made by anyone and/or didn't related to the main themes that were going on at the time, so it's hard to remember that you specifically were the person who made them.

As such, I don't think "Gamma Emerald is a lurker" is a useful conclusion to draw, but I also don't think it's useful to conclude anything from the fact that someone does think you're a lurker. A playstyle that includes lots of very short posts, many of which are generic, is naturally going to lead players to forget that you've done much in the game.

Huh. CFJ is actually defending Gamma now during his own push on Gamma.

Why has Looker not expressed a read on me all D2 (even if they'd prefer to vote elsewhere)? Moving to Frogster, especially when the conversation's been mostly about me recently, is a surprise; I would expect Looker to be defending me if they had a townread, and voting me otherwise.

VOTE: Looker

The "push" on Gamma ends here, after beginning with a vote on Gamma, bringing up the Shelly wagon, the night kill, his theory I am vig and night killed NM, defending Gamma, it concludes by joining Gamma's bandwagon on Looker, making CFJ's Gamma vote appear to be a completely empty distancing vote.

[Frogsterking]

V/LA over the weekend

(I finally have shit to do! )

---

• Gamma says I called myself scum, but I didn't. I offered an alternate interpretation of shelly's actions for Tayl0r Swift.
  
• Are the remaining scum Gamma and Frogsterking? Is this like a game show? Do I get a prize for guessing right?
  (Yeah, lol, an NK!)

VOTE: Frogsterking shelly, Italiano, and WaltertheDunce are the only people who have voted you. Could shelly have been distancing

Looker initiates.

Why has Looker not expressed a read on me all D2 (even if they'd prefer to vote elsewhere)? Moving to Frogster, especially when the conversation's been mostly about me recently, is a surprise; I would expect Looker to be defending me if they had a townread, and voting me otherwise.

VOTE: Looker

CFJ gets rid of the empty Gamma vote.

who are you

And only one person is voting you - you don't seem to be a point of contention

But mostly, who are you and why should I care?

Is Frogsterking your scum PR or something? Am I hot or am I cold? There's reasons to push me for both.

Interesting. Begs for attention, then does nothing with it. Got it.

Looker attempts to heavily provoke CFJ.

I'm pushing you mostly because a) my vote on Gamma isn't doing much any more, with the game stalling (the Gamma wagon produced some good content but is unlikely to generate more), and b) you seem really disconnected with what's going on in the game more generally. In particular, I'd expect the self-vote in #994 to be more likely to come from scum than town; it doesn't make any sense to do intentionally as either alignment, but it seems more likely that scum would do it by mistake (as they aren't normally as invested in any particular read as a typical townie is; scum are more likely to forget who they're suspicious of than townies are).

On a more general note, do you normally consider defending players to be scummy behaviour in general? (I'm trying to understand your read on Raya.)


PEDIT: It takes me a while to write posts. (And I've been receiving quite enough / too much attention recently, which is why I was surprised that you apparently hadn't noticed at all.)

After being provoked by Looker, CFJ responds that the Gamma wagon did indeed produce good content, but for an unstated reason is unlikely to produce more, hence the vote switch.

This seems odd to me, because I'm not seeing where CFJ applied pressure to Gamma, or where Gamma produced such content, it just looked like an empty distancing vote to me.

[Frogsterking]

@Raya: Your responses to my questions seem very townie looking at face value. I can’t know if this is your meta or not. Why do you feel it was okay to sacrifice shelly?

@callforjudgment: Why did you kill Not_Mafia?

@Frogsterking: Why did you not interact with the Banana/shelly slot the entire Day 1? And why was banana/shelly the better sacrifice than your other partner?

Because we didn't have anything that the other wanted.

[Frogsterking]

@

Frogsterking

: As scum, it's nearly always correct to do PR-hunting at Night (rereading the thread), while you're looking at the kill. It would be a bad idea for scum to post pages of rolefishing analysis in a daytalk thread because they couldn't make use of that information immediately, and it would mean that they weren't being focused on the game.

As far as I can tell, you've never drawn scum (there are two games you were in whose records are incomplete due to a site crash, you might have been scum in those), so you might not be used to what a scum PT typically looks like. It is very rare for them to be anything like you're imagining they might be, though. If you're interested, here's a scum QT in which I was scum, in a mechanically complex game where roles were quite important, and it

still

doesn't look anything like you're imagining; there's very little bouncing ideas off of each other, and much more statements along the lines of "this is what I've figured out so far". In less mechanically complex games like Normals, there's rarely much rolefishing going on at all, it's more like "I think this person might be a power role", and even then it's usually a backup plan for if there's nobody you want to kill based on reads or WIFOM purposes. Besides, scum don't have the information to effectively work out the details of the setup on Night 1; trying to find associative tells pre-flip is hard enough, trying to solve complex balance-logic puzzles with no power role flips is even harder, and D1/N1 is just too early to effectively pull it off. So any early game PR-hunting is effectively done on the basis of "I think this player is acting abnormally scummy, but they aren't on our scumteam, maybe they're a power role".

I also don't think I've done any prompting of people to claim roles this game? I have been pushing Italiano to reveal his target, but he already has a claimed role, so that isn't revealing any additional information that's useful for scum (rather, it's trying to reveal information useful for town, by exposing a fakeclaim and aiding us in scumhunting the person he targeted).


(As a side note, Not_Mafia has been known to misuse power roles in the past, but softing vig would be an incredibly big mistake for an actual vig to make – there's no town benefit at all, and it runs the risk that scum pick up on the soft and kill you, or that town realise you're acting oddly and vote for you – so it's unlikely that an experienced player would even consider the possibility. #799 wasn't an attempt to determine if Not_Mafia had a role, it was an attempt to goad him into making a post other than his usual intentionally useless posts.)

Out of all things CFJ could comment about he says that in a hypothetical scenario where Walter is town, provoking NM into playing less cryptically may be beneficial to scum by giving an easier excuse for them to join the Walter wagon.

How is that the first example you post when you don't even read Walter as town? And what would NM reveal that would provide an easy excuse for others to join the Walter wagon?

Did you miss #774 in the middle of your quote? geraintm thought that #745 was scummy because it might be scum trying to find an excuse to vote Walter. I thought that that was possible, but wasn't the most likely explanation (in that there were obvious benefits to town too).

There's a difference between having a scumread on someone, and not even considering the possibility that they're town. I didn't have a strong scumread on Walter; and even if I did, I would be open to considering the possibility that he was town (especially when looking at a hypothetical scumread on someone else – in which there would be fewer other scum in the setup – or when trying to reason with someone and trying to explain to them why their reasoning was wrong, a situation in which I need to use their reads rather than mine).

In this case, I thought that the reasoning behind geraint's scumread on you was incorrect. geraint's read was based around a hypothetical in which Walter was town, so I started from the same starting point as he did, and explained that although how the post was consistent with you as scum, there were also obvious pro-town reasons why you might have made it, and therefore this wasn't evidence that you were scum. You seem to be taking geraint's argument for you as scum, falsely attributing it to me, and then claiming that clearly I have secret knowledge that Walter is town or otherwise I wouldn't have made it. Don't you see how utterly illogical this is?

I don't think I've ever seen people use reasoning quite this bad unless they're really deep in a tunnel. Please, step back, and try to evaluate your reads more objectively rather than getting caught up in emotion. I fear you've constructed some really elaborate, complex, unlikely and probably even internally inconsistent scenario in your mind by starting with an incorrect assumption that I'm scum, drawing tenuous conclusions from that, taking them as fact, drawing more tenuous conclusions from that, and so on. (I've been there myself; I've been known to tunnel as town on occasion, and it's really helpful if someone catches what I'm doing and points it out to me.) When you're this deep into a tunnel, the assumptions you're reasoning off have essentially no connection to reality, so your conclusions don't either. That means that, in addition to being wrong on me, they aren't going to be useful for scumhunting anyone else either.

I view both of these posts as the long and anguished cries of an injured wolf, filling our afternoon sky.

[Frogsterking]

RAAAAGGGGGGAAAAHHHHHH!!

[Frogsterking]

without not mafia im losing my motivation to play

does anyone want to fake claim a result?

We could play Simon Says

[Frogsterking]

I was going to be a smartass and ask if you'd like some cheese with all of that wine..

then I realized you already had the cheese too.

[Frogsterking]

I was going to be a smartass and ask if you'd like some cheese with all of that wine..

then I realized you already had the cheese too.

I don't believe what CFJ is saying, I think CFJ wants Italiano to keep voting me and is realizing the more he tells Italiano to trust me the more suspicious Italiano becomes.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Frogsterking

VOTE: Frogsterking

I can't possibly see Frogsterking acting this way if he knows I'm town. Tunnelling may not be all that hard to fake, but this sort of utterly illogical tunnelling, based on a fantasy gamestate that makes no sense and exists only in Frogsterking's mind, is almost impossible to fake; I don't think it's possible to get your mind into that place if you have proof from your role PM that you're wrong. Frogsterking's behaviour is very anti-town (in that it doesn't actually help with finding anyone else as scum, and doesn't help Frogsterking get sensible reads either, and means that Frogsterking will probably end up losing the game by voting for the wrong player near late-game due to having no understanding of the actual gamestate). But it isn't something that I think can come from scum.

As a consequence, I'm seeing Frogsterking as pretty much certain town, and other players should be seeing Frogsterking as "town unless CFJ is scum, and probably still town even then".

I'm trying to explain to Italiano why Frogsterking is almost certainly town (and thus his vote will be more useful elsewhere).

The above was what I intended to quote in the post below:

I was going to be a smartass and ask if you'd like some cheese with all of that wine..

then I realized you already had the cheese too.

I don't believe what CFJ is saying, I think CFJ wants Italiano to keep voting me and is realizing the more he tells Italiano to trust me the more suspicious Italiano becomes.

[Frogsterking]

@Frogsterking: Could you tell me why you went after geraintm so hard for suspecting you on Day 1, but did not even look Banana’s way when he voted for you in 218. I would think you would have said something to Banana, especially given how hard you did interact with geraintm for 769.

VOTE: Frogsterking

Because being voted is not universally emotionally triggering for me, Banana may have voted for me but he did not trigger me, geraintm did without voting me, probably because I was stressed that particular morning for other reasons and geraintm is very blunt. It was not that geraintm suspected me or voted me that was triggering, it was the way he framed my actions.

By comparison my scum read on Banana was not particularly emotionally charged and it appears you read this as a buss. I believe your observation that the interactions were different is accurate, however I don't believe they are AI.

[Frogsterking]

Okay so what’s happening with 334 What’s a spoiler chat?

Aight I think Frog is scum and it looks like the interaction between him and Nosferatu is scum theatre. Frog’s reason is weak and forced. Nosferatu’s reaction to that weak forced case also seems weak and forced. That’s why my vote is there and will probably stay there. You voting for yourself is never a good idea imo.

I’m feeling a little off about callforjudgment. Very townie. Very beautiful and perfect posts. The best posts in the history of our country. You’ve never seen posts like these before. So beautiful.

Townies

Walter
SJReaver
Banana
RCEnigma
Raya
Not_Mafia

Scum

Frogsterking
Nosferatu
callforjudgment

Null and/or no read

sordros
Gamma
geraintm

I have to look back over Gamma and geraintm to get a better read. Still no idea what Sordros is doing here.

@Frogsterking: Could you tell me why you went after geraintm so hard for suspecting you on Day 1, but did not even look Banana’s way when he voted for you in 218. I would think you would have said something to Banana, especially given how hard you did interact with geraintm for 769.

I was on tilt that morning.

Okay, I guess I should say why DIDN’T you go after Banana the same way you did geraintm?

@Raya: Your responses to my questions seem very townie looking at face value. I can’t know if this is your meta or not. Why do you feel it was okay to sacrifice shelly?

@callforjudgment: Why did you kill Not_Mafia?

@Frogsterking: Why did you not interact with the Banana/shelly slot the entire Day 1? And why was banana/shelly the better sacrifice than your other partner?

I'm wondering if you're trying to put a range on my scum behavior, for example at first on D1 you think I might interact with my partner a lot, so you suspect me + Nos, then you internalize that this behavior is not algnmemt indicative for me. Now on D2 you look for people I've not interacted with very much instead, so you suspect me + Banana.

[Frogsterking]

Yes Raya and Italiano are both motivated by fear of being incorrect.

Italiano is more specific in that his fear is in being incorrect about his scum reads, which is causing him to double take his reads continuously. Raya also appears to fear being incorrect about her scum read on Walter, with the opposite reaction of doubling down under pressure.

Raya, the issue I have with your slot is that you're not only absent from the game, you also appear significantly guarded in your thoughts and feelings. Being busy explains the absence but not necessarily the guardedness.

I think appearing guarded in this lobby is quite a feat, because I don't think this is the most trusting group of people in the world.

[Frogsterking]

I believe Raya has maybe played with some other players here before?

[Frogsterking]

How is Enigma on 3

I believe geraintm is not counting the self-vote.

[Frogsterking]

I believe Raya has maybe played with some other players here before?

Yes I've played with a few people on the list before

Does that happen to be the players you're voting with?

[Frogsterking]

I'm not defending Frogster to get towncred on myself. In fact, I knew when I made the post that I might get scumread for it. I don't care, though; this looks like the sort of game that will get solved by PoE, and being able to remove one player from the PoE will be helpful for that, even if they are being worse than useless at the moment.

I don't believe Frogster (or anyone else) is capable of faking Frogster's play this game when scum. That sort of violent self-destructive tunnelling is just not something someone can do without truly believing in it. (I appreciate that this argument is more convincing to me than it is to other people, because a hypothetical scum!Frogster could truly believe that a hypothetical scum!me is scum. But if you have an argument that needs me to be scum to be correct, it makes more sense to focus on me first.)

I think it's very unlikely that this setup is 9:4. (This is partially due to reviewer meta. Talking only about completed games only because I don't know the setup of ongoing games and can't talk about them anyway, the last time mastina reviewed a 9:4, there was a lot of discussion in the review thread about whether the game could be Normal; this ended up dominating discussion, and mastina accidentally entirely forgot to do a balance review. The game turned out to be very scumsided (it would have been scumsided even as a 10:3), mastina got called out on it in the Normal Review Group forums, and apologised. Given what happened last time, I think that it's basically impossible that she makes such a mistake again, and it's almost impossible to cram enough roles into a 9:4 with a normal day/night cycle to balance it,

especially

if you're letting the scum multitask by default). Incidentally, in the very unlikely situation that the setup

is

9:4, this almost guarantees that Walter is scum because otherwise it would have been almost trivially easy for scum to redirect the day 1 deadline wagon without looking overly suspicious.

The last 9-4 I was in had a like 8 person neighborhood, a traitor, a cop, an IC, a babysitter, and an informed goon. Scum won easily and that was with elimming traitor day 1.

That sounds unbalanced. Surely there can be a way to balance a 9-4.

I believe Raya has maybe played with some other players here before?

Yes I've played with a few people on the list before

Does that happen to be the players you're voting with?

Just RCE I believe?

Err before you ask I don't have any kind of meta read on Raya and I generally tend to scumread them.

I also don't have a meta read on RCE

Okay thank you, that's what I was wondering.

[Frogsterking]

I'm fine with a CFJ or Gamma BW.

[Frogsterking]

That sounds unbalanced. Surely there can be a way to balance a 9-4.

There is. Make the setup 10-3.

I was thinking a vig, a couple different investigatives, a watcher or a doctor or both, additionally some kind of alternative pr like a day messager, vs a role blocker and three goons. Something like that.

[Frogsterking]

Also I feel like it's getting close to time for Raya to claim.

[Frogsterking]

That sounds unbalanced. Surely there can be a way to balance a 9-4.

There is. Make the setup 10-3.

I was thinking a vig, a couple different investigatives, a watcher or a doctor or both, additionally some kind of alternative pr like a day messager, vs a role blocker and three goons. Something like that.

You can create a setup that's win/loss balanced along those lines, but it'd be no fun to play. Either you get saved by the power roles and town wins, or you don't and scum wins. A VT would have very little influence over how the game went.

I was thinking that as well.

To be fun and balanced the best try seems no VTs, 4-5 power roles, 4-5 unusual and impactful town roles (like the day messager), vs a power scum and three goons.

[Frogsterking]

Also I read through that 9-4 game and I can see how it left a bad taste in everyone's mouth.

[Frogsterking]

Also I feel like it's getting close to time for Raya to claim.

you arent even on the wagon and it isnt at L-1....

You are correct.

[Frogsterking]

I also don't have a meta read on RCE

I believe Raya has maybe played with some other players here before?

Yes I've played with a few people on the list before

Does that happen to be the players you're voting with?

Just RCE I believe?

Err before you ask I don't have any kind of meta read on Raya and I generally tend to scumread them.

Thank you both for answering this.

[Frogsterking]

What do you think is going to happen over the course of the next 48 hours?

[Frogsterking]

For one thing, I believe a flash wagon on CFJ or Gamma is more likely than a flash wagon on RCE, because at least a few players have listed CFJ or Gamma as a compromise lynch. I'm personally willing to vote either one. If you're goal is to make it through D2 without getting to L-1, like it seems based on the statement you just said, then changing your vote to either of those players is a good place to start.

Second, I'm not willing to vote any of the players that were on-wagon D1, including your current vote, until I've seen flips or reports showing otherwise because I believe the shelly wagon was town driven. If you want to survive, much more get through today without getting to L-1, then I suggest you vote someone who was off-wagon that is being scumread by other players.

[Frogsterking]

lets do an exercise: everyone post your gun to head scumteam of two people with one extra person who might be scum for me please. this could potentially provide very interesting data.

looking at {raya, gamma} rn

maybe {cfj} but im starting to turn around on him for no real reason in particular

For the excercise,
I would go with raya + CFJ. if CFJ is town then look at gamma/ looker/italiano.

i think cfj will be an extremely high-info lunch. but i think raya is by far the most likely to be scum, so id still prefer to lunch there. we can dine on cfj tomorrow.

For the record, between the two (Raya and CFJ) I am more willing to vote for CFJ than Raya.

@Raya

The above indicate to me that you're only option to make it through D2 without reaching l-1 and claiming is probably a CFJ flash wagon, but maybe a Gamma flash wagon as well. Like I said I will vote for either.

The RCE wagon has been a passionate and vocal minority but still a minority.

[Frogsterking]

@Frogsterking: On the subject of "town driven" – which specific players do you think were

driving

the shelly wagon, as opposed to being merely

on

it?

That is a good question, if I recall correctly there was a quick trio of votes very late in the day: myself, Walter and Italiano, I would say that trio "drove" the wagon. I town read Walter and Italiano and am confirmed town to myself of course, so I believe the shelly wagon was town-driven.

Then tayl0r slid on after a short delay I think, then at the last minute geraintm, Nos and RCE voted creating the hammer. I am lightly town reading these slots that were also on-wagon as well, though I wouldn't describe them as "driving" the wagon as much as making sure it went through. I believe this second group was mainly voting on this wagon because they trusted the slots that were already on it more so than the Walter wagon and wanted to ensure a lynch went through.

[Frogsterking]

What do you think is going to happen over the course of the next 48 hours?

maybe youll stop blatantly rolefishing or youll be the one at L-2?

If there is going to be an end-of-day fiasco I think it's better to instigate it with 48 hours to sort it out rather than 4 hours and 3/4 of the players MIA.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Gamma I'm going to go ahead and adjust my vote here but I will move it back to CFJ in a heartbeat. I believe CFJ is open wolfing, Gamma is coasting. Raya is my third choice for likely scum flip but still light years away from these two.

[Frogsterking]

@Frogsterking: On the subject of "town driven" – which specific players do you think were

driving

the shelly wagon, as opposed to being merely

on

it?

That is a good question, if I recall correctly there was a quick trio of votes very late in the day: myself, Walter and Italiano, I would say that trio "drove" the wagon. I town read Walter and Italiano and am confirmed town to myself of course, so I believe the shelly wagon was town-driven.

Then tayl0r slid on after a short delay I think, then at the last minute geraintm, Nos and RCE voted creating the hammer. I am lightly town reading these slots that were also on-wagon as well, though I wouldn't describe them as "driving" the wagon as much as making sure it went through. I believe this second group was mainly voting on this wagon because they trusted the slots that were already on it more so than the Walter wagon and wanted to ensure a lynch went through.

actually i was the first on the wagon and pushed for other people to join

Then I would say only you drove the wagon, Italiano+Walter+my votes later solidified the wagon, and geraintm+Nos+RCE ensured the wagon went through.

i do not like frogsters recent posts.

I also do not like your recent posts.

[Frogsterking]

@Raya: Your responses to my questions seem very townie looking at face value. I can’t know if this is your meta or not. Why do you feel it was okay to sacrifice shelly?

I feel like from my perspective I usually come across quite townie when I actually try as town. I wish I could give this game that effort right now. As scum I tend to be pretty obvious, I come across as unnatural and it's easy to see through my plans. Of course scum always feel like their scummy so maybe I'm not as bad at scum as I think?

Without knowing how you actually play as both alignments it’s hard to know what you mean by “obvious” and “unnatural”. What differences are there or can be seen when you are “trying as town” as opposed to not trying?

I don't remember saying I was okay with sacrificing Shelly but there was a lot of suspicion on that slot so even if I read it as town I'd have been fine with the elimination. I did consistently read her as scummy-appearing town. It's still interesting how easy that elimination went through when there wasn't much of a push.

It may go against the grain, but I like this response. I was asking Raya this question as if she was scum sacrificing her scumbuddy and she answered it oblivious to the reasoning behind the question. If you are faking this response Raya, then kudos to you.

Yes Raya and Italiano are both motivated by fear of being incorrect.

Italiano is more specific in that his fear is in being incorrect about his scum reads, which is causing him to double take his reads continuously. Raya also appears to fear being incorrect about her scum read on Walter, with the opposite reaction of doubling down under pressure.

Raya, the issue I have with your slot is that you're not only absent from the game, you also appear significantly guarded in your thoughts and feelings. Being busy explains the absence but not necessarily the guardedness.

I think appearing guarded in this lobby is quite a feat, because I don't think this is the most trusting group of people in the world.

Fear of being incorrect is not it at all. I could be wrong, but that doesn’t motivate my actions. The evidence of the shelly wagon and the interactions everyone had with that slot is pretty telling. Shelly is a confirmed flip so I want to use that information as the foundation for where I go. I don’t want to speculate, because I don’t have to.

Your solve is less accurate now than it was at the beginning of D2 fmpov. If the cause was not emotional then I'd guess you made a logical error during your analysis of the shelly flip.

[Frogsterking]

@Frogsterking: On the subject of "town driven" – which specific players do you think were

driving

the shelly wagon, as opposed to being merely

on

it?

That is a good question, if I recall correctly there was a quick trio of votes very late in the day: myself, Walter and Italiano, I would say that trio "drove" the wagon. I town read Walter and Italiano and am confirmed town to myself of course, so I believe the shelly wagon was town-driven.

Then tayl0r slid on after a short delay I think, then at the last minute geraintm, Nos and RCE voted creating the hammer. I am lightly town reading these slots that were also on-wagon as well, though I wouldn't describe them as "driving" the wagon as much as making sure it went through. I believe this second group was mainly voting on this wagon because they trusted the slots that were already on it more so than the Walter wagon and wanted to ensure a lynch went through.

My own view on this:

• Tayl0r started the wagon. She was consistent in having shelly as scum, and implied she wanted other people to vote the slot. She never once explained the reasoning behind the scumread (except an oblique reference in #690 which was mostly a refusal to explain), which may have made other people reluctant to join.
  
• Frogster/Italiano/Walter joined the shelly wagon in quick succession, effectively killing any chance that the geraint wagon would take off. I don't think this is particularly town-indicative for Walter, because he voted for both the plausible counterwagons to his (shelly and geraint) at around that time, and made it clear that he would switch back to geraint if needed. Unless geraint is scum, it is somewhat somewhat town-indicative for Frogster and Italiano (especially Frogster, who was quite vocal in stating that this was likely to be the best compromise).
  
  @
  Italiano
  /
  Walter
  : Did you discuss #820/#821 in your neighbour PT prior to voting? If so, what were you talking about?
  
• Looker joined the geraint wagon
  after
  it pretty much had no chance of going through.
  
• If not for the mod intervention in #833, shelly would almost certainly have been hammered as a consequence of me and RCEnigma changing vote (I had already promised to change my vote to avoid deadline expiring at a time between 9 and 39 minutes from that post, and RCEnigma had already promised to hammer if I did so).
  
• Instead, Nosferatu moved onto the shelly wagon. Not_Mafia asked geraint to revote it, and geraint did so. RCEnigma moved to shelly in between, making geraint's vote the hammer.

I think the shelly wagon was primarily PoE. I think that Frogster and Italiano are largely responsible for saving geraint (without knowing what was going on in Italiano/Walter's neighbourhood, it's unclear how much credit to give each of these two parties), that Nosferatu and Not_Mafia are largely responsible for the choice of shelly over Walter (a little strange because Not_Mafia's words were pushing Walter over shelly), and that Tayl0r is the primary reason why shelly was even seen as a valid compromise wagon in the first place.

In retrospect, it's also quite plausible that the reason the shelly wagon went through is that it was an "unexpected" wagon that grew very quickly, while one of the scum had flaked, giving scum less opportunity to interfere with it.

Purely based on the immediate circumstances surrounding the end-of-D1 wagons (rather than looking at the rest of the game), it looks like the most potential scope for scum on the shelly wagon are Tayl0r (who, although fairly active in general, was apparently offline at the critical moment and would have had huge trouble leaving the wagon convincingly at #839), Walter (who may well have just been following Italiano and made it clear that he'd move back to the geraint counterwagon), RCEnigma (whose strategy was, in effect, committing to only push a wagon over the line if it was likely to go through anyway, which is quite plausible for scum who is planning to bus if necessary but doesn't want to have to), and geraint (clearly willing to push either the Walter or shelly wagon). Meanwhile, Looker just looks bad from all this, especially if Walter turns out to be scum in addition to shelly. This analysis makes it very likely that Nosferatu is town. (I have a townread on Nosferatu anyway, but this reinforces it). It also makes me feel somewhat better about Italiano, who had probably the best opportunity of anyone to get Walter or geraint eliminated D1 rather than shelly (a simple "I'm neighbours with Walter and think he's scummy in the PT" would likely be enough to push a Walter wagon over the line, whilst being hard to disprove). Italiano's recent play has also been much more townish than his play earlier in the game (although he still needs to confirm his night action).

The above analysis got me thinking about Looker again, and I'd rather be voting for a slot that hasn't done much townish and has been flying under the radar (even if it hasn't done much that's particularly scummy), rather than a slot I'm conflicted about. VOTE: Looker

I have many issues with this post, my first is that you said Italiano's recent play has been townish, and his recent play has been to vote me (after you claimed to hold a nearly conf-town behavioral read on me) and to post analysis of the shelly wagon very different from your own.

I also feel like you are shading tayl0r in this post and it makes me wonder if it's because she is softing pr.

I think the points you make in between these scummier ones seem solid, which causes me to suspect you're lying.

[Frogsterking]

In fact this post seems to be shading many of my town reads.

[Frogsterking]

@Frogsterking: On the subject of "town driven" – which specific players do you think were

driving

the shelly wagon, as opposed to being merely

on

it?

That is a good question, if I recall correctly there was a quick trio of votes very late in the day: myself, Walter and Italiano, I would say that trio "drove" the wagon. I town read Walter and Italiano and am confirmed town to myself of course, so I believe the shelly wagon was town-driven.

Then tayl0r slid on after a short delay I think, then at the last minute geraintm, Nos and RCE voted creating the hammer. I am lightly town reading these slots that were also on-wagon as well, though I wouldn't describe them as "driving" the wagon as much as making sure it went through. I believe this second group was mainly voting on this wagon because they trusted the slots that were already on it more so than the Walter wagon and wanted to ensure a lynch went through.

actually i was the first on the wagon and pushed for other people to join

This is true. And I think wanting the credit of a scumflip is nai imo, but taking her iso/interaction(s) into account and despite my earlier reservations, I’m gonna assume Taylor is towntelling here.

• Frogster/Italiano/Walter joined the shelly wagon in quick succession, effectively killing any chance that the geraint wagon would take off.

I was the leading wagon at the time (729). In 789 you, Walter, and Geraintm were tied at two votes. Shelly was at one vote because Frogster had switched to geraintm. Not sure how much momentum there potentially was for geraintm to become the leading wagon.

@

Italiano

/

Walter

: Did you discuss #820/#821 in your neighbour PT prior to voting? If so, what were you talking about?

No we didn’t discuss anything about the vote; it happened pretty organically. We’ve talked about a lot of stuff in there.

Walter (who may well have just been following Italiano and made it clear that he'd move back to the geraint counterwagon)

I must have missed it, but where did Walter make it clear that he’d move back to geraintm?

Meanwhile, Looker just looks bad from all this

How? Why?

Italiano's recent play has also been much more townish than his play earlier in the game (although he still needs to confirm his night action).

I will reveal my night action confirmation upon twilight. I feel as though I might be the nightkill, so I’ll get all my final thoughts out then. If I knew that I would survive the night then I’d just wait until Day 3 to reveal both night revelations and possibly clinch the game (along with the other potential town prs) through PoE, but I claimed pr and while the tfnn can’t directly hurt the scum team ultimately they need it gone.

The above analysis got me thinking about Looker again, and I'd rather be voting for a slot that hasn't done much townish and has been flying under the radar (even if it hasn't done much that's particularly scummy), rather than a slot I'm conflicted about. VOTE: Looker

Do you town or scumread Gamma?

@Raya: Your responses to my questions seem very townie looking at face value. I can’t know if this is your meta or not. Why do you feel it was okay to sacrifice shelly?

I feel like from my perspective I usually come across quite townie when I actually try as town. I wish I could give this game that effort right now. As scum I tend to be pretty obvious, I come across as unnatural and it's easy to see through my plans. Of course scum always feel like their scummy so maybe I'm not as bad at scum as I think?

Without knowing how you actually play as both alignments it’s hard to know what you mean by “obvious” and “unnatural”. What differences are there or can be seen when you are “trying as town” as opposed to not trying?

I don't remember saying I was okay with sacrificing Shelly but there was a lot of suspicion on that slot so even if I read it as town I'd have been fine with the elimination. I did consistently read her as scummy-appearing town. It's still interesting how easy that elimination went through when there wasn't much of a push.

It may go against the grain, but I like this response. I was asking Raya this question as if she was scum sacrificing her scumbuddy and she answered it oblivious to the reasoning behind the question. If you are faking this response Raya, then kudos to you.

Yes Raya and Italiano are both motivated by fear of being incorrect.

Italiano is more specific in that his fear is in being incorrect about his scum reads, which is causing him to double take his reads continuously. Raya also appears to fear being incorrect about her scum read on Walter, with the opposite reaction of doubling down under pressure.

Raya, the issue I have with your slot is that you're not only absent from the game, you also appear significantly guarded in your thoughts and feelings. Being busy explains the absence but not necessarily the guardedness.

I think appearing guarded in this lobby is quite a feat, because I don't think this is the most trusting group of people in the world.

Fear of being incorrect is not it at all. I could be wrong, but that doesn’t motivate my actions. The evidence of the shelly wagon and the interactions everyone had with that slot is pretty telling. Shelly is a confirmed flip so I want to use that information as the foundation for where I go. I don’t want to speculate, because I don’t have to.

Your solve is less accurate now than it was at the beginning of D2 fmpov. If the cause was not emotional then I'd guess you made a logical error during your analysis of the shelly flip.

How so?

Because fmpov I know you're vote is incorrect and you weren't voting me before your analysis, so if the change wasn't an emotionally charged one I'm assuming it's a logical error.

I didn't notice anything wrong with your logic in general while reading through your posts the first time aside from that I disagreed with your initial assumption (the shelly lynch was a buss/scum driven) so that could be one. I can't remember any statistics I read on the likelihood of a D1 bus.

A second possible point of error could be assuming my lack of interactions with banana/shelly is an associative scum tell. I believe this might be speculative about my scum play, and if not, I don't know how likely a lack of interactions with a vote target holds up as a scum tell, especially on D1 w/ 13 players, or as an indicator a bus is happening, where I imagine it might be less likely.

And a third possible point of error is that I do believe you're speculating about my scum play at least a little bit (that I like to bus) because you suspected me of bussing for a nearly-opposite associative tell on D1. It's been a long time since I rolled scum in any medium of the game so I don't really know how my gameplay would change, in general though I would discourage bussing, I don't think it usually does anything, and I preferred to be the one being bussed because I enjoyed open-wolfing.

[Frogsterking]

Interesting contradction in Frogster's ISO that I noticed while writing my previous post:

Gamma starting to town tell now in recent posts leaves me with a solid scum read on the CFJ slot.

After being provoked by Looker, CFJ responds that the Gamma wagon did indeed produce good content, but for an unstated reason is unlikely to produce more, hence the vote switch.

This seems odd to me, because I'm not seeing where CFJ applied pressure to Gamma, or where Gamma produced such content, it just looked like an empty distancing vote to me.

(For context, "Gamma wagon" starts at #1019, and was pretty much over by #1060 when it became clear that Frogster preferred me over gamma today, meaning that there was no more pressure coming from the Frogster slot; Gamma hadn't posted since #1053.)

So in other words, Frogster picked up towntells from Gamma while I was voting for him. He subsequently claims that my vote must have been distancing rather than genuine, on the basis that I'd claimed to have picked up good content from Gamma while I was voting for him. And the reason that the Gamma wagon was unlikely to produce more content was that Frogster killed it! (#1060, #1062).

(I think the reason for this contradiction is the same as the reason for the other failures of logic I've pointed out from Frogster: that Frogster has decided to scumread me, initially as PoE, then deciding that pretty much everything he reads is compatible with me as scum and is interpreting everything in that light, getting confirmation bias, and ignoring his own prior reads and the context as a consequence.)

That's not a contradiction. He made some bad looking posts, then some posts I liked, then bad posts again, and overall I read the slot as scum.

[Frogsterking]

If anyone is curious what CFJ is doing right now I have a link that describes it:
https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... tichora%29

In summary, you spam up the thread to mess with the town information flow and shade as many townies as possible, without much regard to getting scum read by the other players, in fact often you plan to finish it with a bus. This is how I believe CFJ has been approaching the game.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: CFJ

[Frogsterking]

could i ask people to give me the benefit of the doubt on raya here? im not an investigative with a guilty on raya or anything, but i do have a very strong gutread. this doesnt feel like town!raya after reading over a few games. this doesnt feel like town!raya based on raya's own description. a few people are trying to get counterwagons going. none of the people i scumread are voting raya.

I will vote her once it's clear a wagon on Gamma or CFJ will be impossible.

[Frogsterking]

That's not a contradiction. He made some bad looking posts, then some posts I liked, then bad posts again, and overall I read the slot as scum.

The contradiction is "I'm not seeing […] where Gamma produced such content", versus you explicitly stating at the time that Gamma was producing such content. Or in other words, you're assuming that you saw something townish from Gamma's posts, but that I couldn't possibly have seen something townish from the same posts.

Who cares?

[Frogsterking]

What do you think is going to happen over the course of the next 48 hours?

maybe youll stop blatantly rolefishing or youll be the one at L-2?

yep, it is a bad look for frogster.
they have the appearance of someone who has their vote placed no where useful, but want to be on a lynch but can't work out an easy way to get there. and then list 3 different places (raya, gamma and CFJ) where they are already starting to think about going.

will saythat raya is acting either very cool or very disinterested about their status as leading wagon

VOTE: Gamma I'm going to go ahead and adjust my vote here but I will move it back to CFJ in a heartbeat. I believe CFJ is open wolfing, Gamma is coasting. Raya is my third choice for likely scum flip but still light years away from these two.

oh look, frogster moves their vote...to someone with no other votes?

CFJ post 1469 - man, another long analysis. it ends up with looker, but I am too dim to follow how it got there...

I will reveal my night action confirmation upon twilight.

please don't do this. you cannot be sure there will be a long enough twilight for you to be awake or post or anything. people have been asking all day for you to come clean and now saying you are going to wait until a time that might not exist is just... what happens if you miss your opportunity and we end up in Day 3 with you still being able to wait on your claim?

Also I feel like it's getting close to time for Raya to claim.

you arent even on the wagon and it isnt at L-1....

I said something similar a few days ago. I didn't say claim, I just said that the day seems to be drifting towards their lynch and they should probably try and alter the course if they didn't want to get killed.

Don't think you hassled me over my post though :/

Is it Frogster fishing or do you think he actually intends to hammer

oh, I am 99% sure they have no intention to hammer and want a claim.

You're wrong, Looker was correct.

[Frogsterking]

What do you think is going to happen over the course of the next 48 hours?

maybe youll stop blatantly rolefishing or youll be the one at L-2?

yep, it is a bad look for frogster.
they have the appearance of someone who has their vote placed no where useful, but want to be on a lynch but can't work out an easy way to get there. and then list 3 different places (raya, gamma and CFJ) where they are already starting to think about going.

will saythat raya is acting either very cool or very disinterested about their status as leading wagon

VOTE: Gamma I'm going to go ahead and adjust my vote here but I will move it back to CFJ in a heartbeat. I believe CFJ is open wolfing, Gamma is coasting. Raya is my third choice for likely scum flip but still light years away from these two.

oh look, frogster moves their vote...to someone with no other votes?

CFJ post 1469 - man, another long analysis. it ends up with looker, but I am too dim to follow how it got there...

I will reveal my night action confirmation upon twilight.

please don't do this. you cannot be sure there will be a long enough twilight for you to be awake or post or anything. people have been asking all day for you to come clean and now saying you are going to wait until a time that might not exist is just... what happens if you miss your opportunity and we end up in Day 3 with you still being able to wait on your claim?

Also I feel like it's getting close to time for Raya to claim.

you arent even on the wagon and it isnt at L-1....

I said something similar a few days ago. I didn't say claim, I just said that the day seems to be drifting towards their lynch and they should probably try and alter the course if they didn't want to get killed.

Don't think you hassled me over my post though :/

Is it Frogster fishing or do you think he actually intends to hammer

oh, I am 99% sure they have no intention to hammer and want a claim.

You were correct at the beginning when you said I can't work out an easy way to get the votes where I want them, and I'm willing to lynch Raya because she's next in my PoE, however it's been pretty clear there are two places I want my vote.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: CFJ

why are you on another vanity wagon now?

CFJ is not a vanity wagon, there are a couple players who said they prefer CFJ over Raya, and I believe the CFJ wagon is game-ending.

[Frogsterking]

could i ask people to give me the benefit of the doubt on raya here? im not an investigative with a guilty on raya or anything, but i do have a very strong gutread. this doesnt feel like town!raya after reading over a few games. this doesnt feel like town!raya based on raya's own description. a few people are trying to get counterwagons going. none of the people i scumread are voting raya.

I will vote her once it's clear a wagon on Gamma or CFJ will be impossible.

[Frogsterking]

could i ask people to give me the benefit of the doubt on raya here? im not an investigative with a guilty on raya or anything, but i do have a very strong gutread. this doesnt feel like town!raya after reading over a few games. this doesnt feel like town!raya based on raya's own description. a few people are trying to get counterwagons going. none of the people i scumread are voting raya.

I will vote her once it's clear a wagon on Gamma or CFJ will be impossible.

[Frogsterking]

could i ask people to give me the benefit of the doubt on raya here? im not an investigative with a guilty on raya or anything, but i do have a very strong gutread. this doesnt feel like town!raya after reading over a few games. this doesnt feel like town!raya based on raya's own description. a few people are trying to get counterwagons going. none of the people i scumread are voting raya.

I will vote her once it's clear a wagon on Gamma or CFJ will be impossible.

[Frogsterking]

CFJ or Gamma tomorrow guys..

[Frogsterking]

Alright my reads right now I have geraintm, Italiano and Walter as town.

Gamma, Nosferatu and Looker I'm very unsure.

RCE and CFJ both as scum reads.

The changes are mainly based on the ending of D2 and the choice of the N2 kill. I reread D2 multiple times (not D1) and it wasn't super helpful.

[Frogsterking]

For what it's worth, I also have quite a strong scumread on Looker at this point. #1384 looks pretty bad after the Raya flip, in addition to #802…#825 looking bad after the shelly flip.

If the remaining scum aren't RCEnigma + Looker, I think Gamma and geraintm are the next most likely possibilities, but have no particular reason to think that either of them are scum.

As do your own actions around the shelly flip discussed yesterday and your post 1493 around the Raya flip:

could i ask people to give me the benefit of the doubt on raya here? im not an investigative with a guilty on raya or anything, but i do have a very strong gutread. this doesnt feel like town!raya after reading over a few games. this doesnt feel like town!raya based on raya's own description. a few people are trying to get counterwagons going. none of the people i scumread are voting raya.

If your read is that strong, I'm willing to sheep it, even though I don't have a scumread on Raya myself (especially as my current scumreads aren't all that strong).

VOTE: Raya

[Frogsterking]

On Day 1, my reads were wrong and Tayl0r's were right.

On Day 2, we'd reached a deadlock, and my reads weren't all that strong. So I was interested in sheeping players who I believed to be town and had strong reads. I held off on voting Raya for as long as I did primarily because I wasn't sure whether Nosferatu's and Tayl0r's votes were just weak PoE votes or strongly held reads.

I previously explained this in #1274.

And how is this excuse different from Looker's?

[Frogsterking]

Or in other words, if Looker makes the same excuse, why should I believe you over him?

[Frogsterking]

As far as I'm concerned I've voted scum correctly both days now while you have done the opposite. There is no similarity the way you're framing it. You're trying to use AtE to guilt me into second guessing myself.

After Raya's claim I was heavily expecting Raya to flip town and would only have hammered her to prevent a nolynch. I believe Raya should have claimed much earlier than she did.

I've never seen a town!player be as convinced as you are that another player who is tunneling them is town. It's unbelievable play.

You say that I'm /italic still /italic holding a scum read on you as though continuing to vote townies will earn you a town read for some reason.

If the goal of your post was to change my mind then it was unsuccessful.

[Frogsterking]

I will read your posts explaining how your excuses are any better than something Looker could say after I get some sleep.

[Frogsterking]

As far as I'm concerned I've voted scum correctly both days now while you have done the opposite. There is no similarity the way you're framing it.

You're trying to use AtE to guilt me into second guessing myself.

#1

Hmm. Is it working?

After Raya's claim I was heavily expecting Raya to flip town

and would only have hammered her to prevent a nolynch.

#2

A nolynch? You really believe that a nolynch was a real possibility? And something about the bolded doesn’t seem right. I’ll have to look back and see why I feel that way.

I believe Raya should have claimed much earlier than she did.

#3

Huh? Why should she have claimed before getting to L-1?

#1

Nope.

#2

Not really.

#3

Because she'd been the main bandwagon for almost two weeks and wasn't really doing anything to change that. If she'd claimed with a couple days left (and not L-1) it may have prevented her from getting quick hammered and allowed another BW to form.

[Frogsterking]

If Taylor's report failed because of a mafia role blocker then why did Italiano's night action go through? That makes me think there is a role cop or some other kind of maf pr.

[Frogsterking]

And Taylor's report failed because of an inno.

[Frogsterking]

RCEnigma cant really be scum - hes claiming a guilty on someone (at this point given people's PT claims). for RCE to be scum it would require him to be sacrificing himself in at best a 1-for-1 trade. thats a pretty bad play as scum, especially at this stage in the game where scum is already down a goon and town is only down a VT.

as for gerain, i was skeptical yesterday but i feel that gerains posts today have basically towntold. i think it would be worthwhile for everyone to re-read day 1 or at least shelly's posts to see what can be gleaned.

i guess im ready to VOTE: looker
this slot was my second scumread yesterday after shelly and has done nothing to change that.

im happy to claim at some point but i dont think theres any reason for me to full claim right now. ill say that my role is interesting given enigma's role.

Perhaps an inno on geraintm.

[Frogsterking]

I checked the wiki and it didn't indicate that an inno report would return as failed.

My second thought as to how her report would fail is that she targeted Not_Mafia, so her action failed because the night sequence went mafia kill > investigate > (report failed.) I don't know if this is how it works though.

The wiki also indicated that CFJ was the first known user to create a setup using Traffic Analyst (which PT cop is a variation of), and CFJ has mentioned Gamma is a strong mechanical player, so I would expect them to have something to say about the report failure and what possibilities may cause that. I'd also like another player who has knowledge of setup mechanics to weigh in (perhaps RCE?) in case both CFJ and Gamma are scum.

Finally, it's important to consider that tayl0r may have been bluffing about her report, that's exactly what I would have done had I decided to out for some reason.

If the most likely way tayl0r's report could have returned as "failed" was a role block, that indicates to me we are dealing with both a role cop and a role block, and on N1 the mafia role copped another town pr, which was the target of their block last night. I believe this because otherwise it makes no sense to me that they would allow Italiano another use of his ability.

[Frogsterking]

I also have a possible meta scum tell on CFJ. It's such a dumb tell and it would require reading so many of his games to verify I'm going to hold off on it for a bit.

[Frogsterking]

Would ascetic return "no result" or "failed" or are they considered synonymous?

[Frogsterking]

Happy to be alive, I gotta say. I expected to be killed, but kinda wouldn’t be surprised if I didn’t and here we are.

I fully expected you to be killed too.

I’m guessing that because I was confirmed tfn and Taylor was unconfirmed, better to get rid of her in hopes of hitting a more powered role.

@italiano - why are your reads on looker and enigma so different to everyone else's?

Well I strongly townread SJReaver and even though Looker has played strangely, I don’t think it’s scum play. I’ve townread RC for a while now and the hammer of Raya didn’t make me think scum (although, that seems to be the consensus). Also his fakeclaim has been shown to be his meta and is not ai.

Here are my full reads:

TOWN

geraintm

- For almost all of Day 1 and part of Day 2 I could not get a read on geraintm. Never scumread him, but couldn’t hone in a solid read. As I started to see more of his reasoning and thoughts regarding events in the gamestate and when my own interactions with him increased I began feeling better about him. Geraintm has been the ghost vote/wagon since Day 1. Coincidentally along with Looker, it’s been Gamma, callforjudgment, and Frogster.

85%

Nosferatu

- After thinking Frog and Nos were possible scum partners earlier in the day I read Nosferatu as town late in the day for seemingly backing me up when I was going after callforjudgment even though I was the leading wagon at the time. I was hoping he was town by sending him my tfn message. I know it doesn’t make sense for scum!Nos to deny receiving the message, meaning it could be faked, but based on the late Day 1 response to my wagon along with the Day 2 posting, I’m thinking pretty strongly town here.

90%

Walter

- My strongest townread out of everyone. Nothing more needs to be said here.

100%

RCEnigma

- The two things RC is being scumread for I think are NAI and other than those two things I have not seen anyone say anything that could actually be considered scummy. I’ve pretty much townread RC since late Day 1 and as I said there hasn’t been anything I have found through his ISO that I could say would be worth voting him for.

85%

Looker

- SJReaver claimed she was scum. CFJ claimed that he thought her action was more likely to come from scum then town, although his sample size was only three (174). I disagreed then and I still do. I have only seen/experienced veteran, highly experienced players claim wolf while actually being wolf and that’s only been like 5 times maybe, which is also not a strong sample size. The other times I have seen it (much more often than 5) has been from regular villager or power role villager (seer, Angel, etc.). All in all I think no matter what alignment you are it’s simply a reaction test. Anyway, I’m saying all that to say:

~While it’s possible, I think/thought it was highly unlikely for scum!SJReaver to comfortably claim scum while being scum, especially being a new player.

~SJReaver as scum would not come after me as town because town!SJReaver knows I go hard after who I think is scum and would not risk getting tunneled. I don’t think 90, 91, and 92 comes from scum!SJReaver.

I don’t really have to say anything about Looker since it’s the same slot. I haven’t seen anything that has made me think otherwise on the slot. Though I was annoyed in 1312 it wasn’t a scumread.

85%

SCUM

Frogster

- I started to allude to my suspicion of Frogster in 1308. I wasn’t satisfied with the answers in 1314 and 1321. I perceived them as brush off answers. Then in 1322 changes the subject to pointlessly question Looker about his username. Again in 1366, I tried to get some type of response/reaction out of him and was again met with sarcasm (1369). And thus the reason for the vote in 1385. 1403 was an elaboration of 1385. I was ready to engage with him and understand what his thoughts were, but it seemed like he had/has something to hide so I’m good with voting him out and why he’s in my lynchpool.

90%

Gamma

- I’ve scumread Gamma since Day 2. Wasn’t able to really get a good read on him Day 1 as I forgot he was in the game although he was a top 3 poster. I think he might have been second in posting iirc. Posting that much and not being memorable had me scratching my head. After doing an iso on him Day 2 he seemed very much like a possible scum slot. I said this in 943 and then reiterated again in 1010 when I voted for him. I don’t see any changes to this read.

90%

CFJ

- I’ve been pretty suspicious of call from the beginning. His framing of events have had me scratching my head constantly. Not sure why he frames things the way he does. Sometimes in a weird way, sometimes outright false.

No one caught it but my read of callforjudgment in 381 was a parody of Trump’s description of everything being beautiful even though it’s not (read it again in Trump’s voice). Although it was delivered as a joke, it was a true read of how I thought his posts were too perfect. Townies post and do things that look scummy all the time. Call’s post were just too perfect and to me that seemed like he was trying too hard. Since Day 1, it’s been an up and down rollercoaster when trying to read him. Recently (mid-late Day 2) he has looked more town with his responses and interactions, but then he does something (1493) or says something (1589) that pushes him right back into my scumpool. I do admit, however, that callforjudgment is more of a PoE read than an actual scumread at the moment.

55%

I see what happened yesterday, there was a miscommunication in the tone of my posts because we are communicating through written word. The tone of my posts in my responses 1314, 1321, and 1369 was not sarcastic, I meant them literally. There wasn't a conscious choice to not interact with Banana D1 on my end and probably his as well, and I probably would never have noticed had you not pointed it out. Because of this there is no way to answer the questions you asked, the best I can do is answer in a general sense.

[Frogsterking]

Are you saying you think scum!Nosferatu and scum!RCEnima would be voting together? As partners?

i have frogster there too, and i think i have them coming off worse from my looking over the votes. RCenigma is my second, nosferatu i guess third but i think there should be a clear gap between rcenigma and nos.

I'm still trying to understand what exactly you thought was suspicious end of day 2. Do you care to elaborate?

[Frogsterking]

Happy to be alive, I gotta say. I expected to be killed, but kinda wouldn’t be surprised if I didn’t and here we are.

I fully expected you to be killed too.

I’m guessing that because I was confirmed tfn and Taylor was unconfirmed, better to get rid of her in hopes of hitting a more powered role.

@italiano - why are your reads on looker and enigma so different to everyone else's?

Well I strongly townread SJReaver and even though Looker has played strangely, I don’t think it’s scum play. I’ve townread RC for a while now and the hammer of Raya didn’t make me think scum (although, that seems to be the consensus). Also his fakeclaim has been shown to be his meta and is not ai.

Here are my full reads:

TOWN

geraintm

- For almost all of Day 1 and part of Day 2 I could not get a read on geraintm. Never scumread him, but couldn’t hone in a solid read. As I started to see more of his reasoning and thoughts regarding events in the gamestate and when my own interactions with him increased I began feeling better about him. Geraintm has been the ghost vote/wagon since Day 1. Coincidentally along with Looker, it’s been Gamma, callforjudgment, and Frogster.

85%

Nosferatu

- After thinking Frog and Nos were possible scum partners earlier in the day I read Nosferatu as town late in the day for seemingly backing me up when I was going after callforjudgment even though I was the leading wagon at the time. I was hoping he was town by sending him my tfn message. I know it doesn’t make sense for scum!Nos to deny receiving the message, meaning it could be faked, but based on the late Day 1 response to my wagon along with the Day 2 posting, I’m thinking pretty strongly town here.

90%

Walter

- My strongest townread out of everyone. Nothing more needs to be said here.

100%

RCEnigma

- The two things RC is being scumread for I think are NAI and other than those two things I have not seen anyone say anything that could actually be considered scummy. I’ve pretty much townread RC since late Day 1 and as I said there hasn’t been anything I have found through his ISO that I could say would be worth voting him for.

85%

Looker

- SJReaver claimed she was scum. CFJ claimed that he thought her action was more likely to come from scum then town, although his sample size was only three (174). I disagreed then and I still do. I have only seen/experienced veteran, highly experienced players claim wolf while actually being wolf and that’s only been like 5 times maybe, which is also not a strong sample size. The other times I have seen it (much more often than 5) has been from regular villager or power role villager (seer, Angel, etc.). All in all I think no matter what alignment you are it’s simply a reaction test. Anyway, I’m saying all that to say:

~While it’s possible, I think/thought it was highly unlikely for scum!SJReaver to comfortably claim scum while being scum, especially being a new player.

~SJReaver as scum would not come after me as town because town!SJReaver knows I go hard after who I think is scum and would not risk getting tunneled. I don’t think 90, 91, and 92 comes from scum!SJReaver.

I don’t really have to say anything about Looker since it’s the same slot. I haven’t seen anything that has made me think otherwise on the slot. Though I was annoyed in 1312 it wasn’t a scumread.

85%

SCUM

Frogster

- I started to allude to my suspicion of Frogster in 1308. I wasn’t satisfied with the answers in 1314 and 1321. I perceived them as brush off answers. Then in 1322 changes the subject to pointlessly question Looker about his username. Again in 1366, I tried to get some type of response/reaction out of him and was again met with sarcasm (1369). And thus the reason for the vote in 1385. 1403 was an elaboration of 1385. I was ready to engage with him and understand what his thoughts were, but it seemed like he had/has something to hide so I’m good with voting him out and why he’s in my lynchpool.

90%

Gamma

- I’ve scumread Gamma since Day 2. Wasn’t able to really get a good read on him Day 1 as I forgot he was in the game although he was a top 3 poster. I think he might have been second in posting iirc. Posting that much and not being memorable had me scratching my head. After doing an iso on him Day 2 he seemed very much like a possible scum slot. I said this in 943 and then reiterated again in 1010 when I voted for him. I don’t see any changes to this read.

90%

CFJ

- I’ve been pretty suspicious of call from the beginning. His framing of events have had me scratching my head constantly. Not sure why he frames things the way he does. Sometimes in a weird way, sometimes outright false.

No one caught it but my read of callforjudgment in 381 was a parody of Trump’s description of everything being beautiful even though it’s not (read it again in Trump’s voice). Although it was delivered as a joke, it was a true read of how I thought his posts were too perfect. Townies post and do things that look scummy all the time. Call’s post were just too perfect and to me that seemed like he was trying too hard. Since Day 1, it’s been an up and down rollercoaster when trying to read him. Recently (mid-late Day 2) he has looked more town with his responses and interactions, but then he does something (1493) or says something (1589) that pushes him right back into my scumpool. I do admit, however, that callforjudgment is more of a PoE read than an actual scumread at the moment.

55%

I see what happened yesterday, there was a miscommunication in the tone of my posts because we are communicating through written word. The tone of my posts in my responses 1314, 1321, and 1369 was not sarcastic, I meant them literally. There wasn't a conscious choice to not interact with Banana D1 on my end and probably his as well, and I probably would never have noticed had you not pointed it out. Because of this there is no way to answer the questions you asked, the best I can do is answer in a general sense.

I have more to say about this actually.

I believe that you were correct in your intuition that I had something to hide (at least in the sense that I was being closed.)

I think that I did originally say more in 1314, a couple of paragraphs actually, and it was very difficult to write because I was trying to explain why I never did something that I'd never thought about before, involving another player I know very little about. Then I looked up at your question and realized that it may have been awkward to answer because you made it that way and were trolling me, but I could not tell for sure.
"I don't have to qualify myself to this guy!" I thought and I highlighted+backspaced what I had written and attempted to summarize it in the shortest way possible.

When you kept pushing the question I felt slightly more confident that you were trolling, but still could not tell for sure, so I continued my approach, believing it to be successful, and did what I wanted instead (trying to understand Looker's motivations.)

When you voted me shortly after I assumed it was for a different reason based on your earlier analysis of the shelly wagon and the questions had been an effect of that reason and not the cause.

The approach that I was using was not irony or sarcasm (which I try to avoid), it was laconic. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laconic_phrase
Laconic phrases and ironic/sarcastic ones have some similarities in that they can both be used to deflate an attacking argument you feel is unsound, I feel laconic replies are attempting to do so by still offering insight without giving ground, while sarcastic/ironic replies are more so concerned with undermining the attacker and have little to offer in and of themselves.

PEdit:

Okay, so everything I just said was correct...

[Frogsterking]

Are you saying you think scum!Nosferatu and scum!RCEnima would be voting together? As partners?

i have frogster there too, and i think i have them coming off worse from my looking over the votes. RCenigma is my second, nosferatu i guess third but i think there should be a clear gap between rcenigma and nos.

I'm still trying to understand what exactly you thought was suspicious end of day 2. Do you care to elaborate?

I see what happened yesterday, there was a miscommunication in the tone of my posts because we are communicating through written word. The tone of my posts in my responses 1314, 1321, and 1369 was not sarcastic, I meant them literally. There wasn't a conscious choice to not interact with Banana D1 on my end and probably his as well, and I probably would never have noticed had you not pointed it out. Because of this there is no way to answer the questions you asked, the best I can do is answer in a general sense.

Nice try. I don’t think that’s what happened at all. I don’t think you had a legitimate answer for not interacting with that slot. Had you just come out and said so, I’m sure I would have probably given you the benefit of the doubt.

As I said, I was only somewhat suspicious, but I wasn’t scumreading you. I was just trying to figure it out so I wanted to engage, however, from your responses my perception was that you didn’t want to engage. (i.e. you have/had something to hide). Even after multiple attempts. 1366 was an assumptive question to you to see how you’d respond and still nothing. Then as Taylor and geraintm began pointing out other things about your play late in day 2, it just kept solidifying my suspicions.

Are you saying you think scum!Nosferatu and scum!RCEnima would be voting together? As partners?

i have frogster there too, and i think i have them coming off worse from my looking over the votes. RCenigma is my second, nosferatu i guess third but i think there should be a clear gap between rcenigma and nos.

I guess I’m asking you a hypothetical. Do you think both scumpartners would be on both wagons together back to back days like that? How likely do you think that is?

You may feel some comfort that there was indeed something there end of day because both tayl0r and geraintm think they saw something, however, if you were to ask both of them what that was, their answers will be completely different contradict each other's.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: CFJ

[Frogsterking]

I know this is insane, but I'm actually speculating on an Italiano + CFJ team right now, and there is a very clear reason why.

[Frogsterking]

If Taylor's report failed because of a mafia role blocker then why did Italiano's night action go through? That makes me think there is a role cop or some other kind of maf pr.

Wdym her report failed?

Here:

i guess i can also add that my night action last night failed.

I just realized my Italiano + CFJ theory does not make sense because Nosferatu confirmed Italiano sent out a message N1. So I think it's unlikely there is a mafia role blocker:

Normal games have to be very careful to distinguish the "failed from being blocked" case from the "succeeded but got an innocent" case; the two possible results need to be worded in such a way that you can't fail to tell them apart. The use of the word "failed" implies that something interfered with the action.

Sometimes modifiers can interfere with an action, but Tayl0r didn't have one. That means that Tayl0r got roleblocked, and/or tried to investigate an Ascetic or commuting player, and/or tried to investigate a rolestopped player. (Wiki links: Roleblocker, Ascetic, Commuter, Rolestopper.) I don't think there are any other effects that can stop an action made by an unmodified player in a Normal. Note that merely having one of those actions available one night doesn't necessarily mean a player can use it over and over; things like Odd-Night roles are common in Normals. (However, for some reason moderators have a tendency to either give most roles modifiers or to give no roles modifiers; having seen an unmodified power role flip, that reduces the chance that whatever blocked Tayl0r is limited in use.)

Killing a player's target wouldn't cause her action to fail. It would produce correct information (although it wouldn't be particularly useful).

So tayl0r either targeted an ascetic, got role blocked, targeted a commuting player, or tried to investigate a rolestopped player. I have a new theory now.

I received a Friendly Neighbour's PM last night (and I'm pretty sure I read it correctly).

Italiano is Town.

Happy to be alive, I gotta say. I expected to be killed, but kinda wouldn’t be surprised if I didn’t and here we are. I’m guessing the night kill happened for two reasons:

1) The scum were more scared of Taylor’s ability than mine or
2) I was off in my scumreads/not a threat to them right now.

I think we need to hit scum today and I think we can/will, but I’m pissed! Why’d we take out all the women in this town?

Italiano was neither role blocked nor night killed, so it appears less likely to me that there is a mafia role blocker.

That leaves ascetic, rolestopper, and commuter.

This reminded me that when RCE claimed yesterday, tayl0r actually asked RCE if he was ascetic, leading me to now suspect RCE was tayl0r's N1 target:

RCEnigma are you ascetic or do you have any other modifiers?

ok and im back to having enigma as scum. you outed me as PR and there were better ways of getting everyone to claim whether they were in a PT. you also didnt answer the question about whether you are ascetic. VOTE: enigma

my solve is definitely enigma and looker, but raya is the third in the PoE.

Therefore in answer to geraintm's earlier question here about hints as to tayl0r's n1 result:

Entering the day, going to catch up as best I can

Tayl0r Swift has been killed last night! She was a

Spoiler:

town pt cop

First, did anyone see any hints of any results they got?

Spoiler:

I received a Friendly Neighbour's PM last night (and I'm pretty sure I read it correctly).

Italiano is Town.

you didn't want to hold off on the claim like yesterday?

VOTE: gamma

I think you ended day 2 with it between RCEnigma and gamma, any reason you jumped hard on gamma?

Happy to be alive, I gotta say. I expected to be killed, but kinda wouldn’t be surprised if I didn’t and here we are.

I fully expected you to be killed too.

@italiano - why are your reads on looker and enigma so different to everyone else's?

1589 - i'll have to read that more later.

So, trying to look at votes over the past 2 days to see what I can make of things.
Day 1, the lynch went through with
Frogster
Me
italiano - assume town
Nosferatu
RCEnigma
TAylor < dead town
Walter - assume town

Day 2 went through with

CFJ
Looker
Nosferatu
RCEnimga
Taylor < dead town
Walter - assume town

the people on both lynches were
Nosferatu
RCEnigma
(TAylor)
Walter - assume town

[as an aside, Gamma was on neither, rest on 1 or dead]

SO, I have italiano in my town pile.
I have walter in my strong town pile

I ended Day 2 with Frogster as the person I would likely have been voting for, RCenigma as someone I didn't care for at all and their hammer just stank.

this leaves me considering Frogster - for being on the shelly lynch and their suspicious activity end of day 2
Nosferatu - on both lynches
RCenigma - on both lynches and the horrible lynch and everything else

as my top 3 suspicions.
Do people agree with that? I am generally a player watches what goes on and follows actions, and these are the people who have caused me to be suspicious.

She asked RCE twice if his role was ascetic, I think that's a pretty good hint. I think she also scum read RCE at the end of D1.

PEdit:

Bada-bing bada-boo

[Frogsterking]

And an idea that prompted for me: Frogster, what is your read on Gamma?

Null leaning town now because of his decreasing activity in the game in comparison to the other players as it progresses. I don't believe I've ever in my life seen a scum player drop in activity level as a game progressed compared to the townies (granted most of my games were livechat which might be different.)

Spoiler:

CFJ is going to:

a) not-subtly imply that something I did was scummy, while still maintaining he is completely convinced that I am town.
b) attempt to get ANOTHER townie lynched.
c) both.

[Frogsterking]

I did n't realize myy meds are wearing off so so my posts are becoming less focused, the point of 1632 is that RCE was Taylor's N1 target because she asked him multiple times if he was ascetic after her report failed and she was suspicious of him end of D1.

[Frogsterking]

CFJ is bussing RCE

[Frogsterking]

(PEDIT: re #1637)

Confirming players is beneficial to town. But letting scum know which players are confirmable is beneficial to scum (as they will know they can kill them, rather than an unconfirmed player).

Is the player in question me or RCEnigma? If not, then assuming you are correct, then the only way scum can hide the knowledge of who the confirmed player is will be to nightkill me (as I'll be able to reveal the same information tomorrow rather than toDay, or if I'm run up and forced into a claim). I think town would get a bigger benefit from scum nightkilling me (rather than a more generally townread player) than it would from a player who is unlikely to be eliminated anyway becoming publicly confirmed.

Huh

[Frogsterking]

(PEDIT: re #1637)

Confirming players is beneficial to town. But letting scum know which players are confirmable is beneficial to scum (as they will know they can kill them, rather than an unconfirmed player).

Is the player in question me or RCEnigma? If not, then assuming you are correct, then the only way scum can hide the knowledge of who the confirmed player is will be to nightkill me (as I'll be able to reveal the same information tomorrow rather than toDay, or if I'm run up and forced into a claim). I think town would get a bigger benefit from scum nightkilling me (rather than a more generally townread player) than it would from a player who is unlikely to be eliminated anyway becoming publicly confirmed.

Huh

..wait I got it. I feel obliged to point out that CFJ may be stalling because he is scum and will fail the mechanical test (if I understand what Gamma is doing at all.) I also believe CFJ could attempt to pass the mechanical test today at no cost to town because we already have an outed pr to eat the night kill.

[Frogsterking]

Happy to be alive, I gotta say. I expected to be killed, but kinda wouldn’t be surprised if I didn’t and here we are.

I fully expected you to be killed too.

I’m guessing that because I was confirmed tfn and Taylor was unconfirmed, better to get rid of her in hopes of hitting a more powered role.

@italiano - why are your reads on looker and enigma so different to everyone else's?

Well I strongly townread SJReaver and even though Looker has played strangely, I don’t think it’s scum play. I’ve townread RC for a while now and the hammer of Raya didn’t make me think scum (although, that seems to be the consensus). Also his fakeclaim has been shown to be his meta and is not ai.

Here are my full reads:

TOWN

geraintm

- For almost all of Day 1 and part of Day 2 I could not get a read on geraintm. Never scumread him, but couldn’t hone in a solid read. As I started to see more of his reasoning and thoughts regarding events in the gamestate and when my own interactions with him increased I began feeling better about him. Geraintm has been the ghost vote/wagon since Day 1. Coincidentally along with Looker, it’s been Gamma, callforjudgment, and Frogster.

85%

Nosferatu

- After thinking Frog and Nos were possible scum partners earlier in the day I read Nosferatu as town late in the day for seemingly backing me up when I was going after callforjudgment even though I was the leading wagon at the time. I was hoping he was town by sending him my tfn message. I know it doesn’t make sense for scum!Nos to deny receiving the message, meaning it could be faked, but based on the late Day 1 response to my wagon along with the Day 2 posting, I’m thinking pretty strongly town here.

90%

Walter

- My strongest townread out of everyone. Nothing more needs to be said here.

100%

RCEnigma

- The two things RC is being scumread for I think are NAI and other than those two things I have not seen anyone say anything that could actually be considered scummy. I’ve pretty much townread RC since late Day 1 and as I said there hasn’t been anything I have found through his ISO that I could say would be worth voting him for.

85%

Looker

- SJReaver claimed she was scum. CFJ claimed that he thought her action was more likely to come from scum then town, although his sample size was only three (174). I disagreed then and I still do. I have only seen/experienced veteran, highly experienced players claim wolf while actually being wolf and that’s only been like 5 times maybe, which is also not a strong sample size. The other times I have seen it (much more often than 5) has been from regular villager or power role villager (seer, Angel, etc.). All in all I think no matter what alignment you are it’s simply a reaction test. Anyway, I’m saying all that to say:

~While it’s possible, I think/thought it was highly unlikely for scum!SJReaver to comfortably claim scum while being scum, especially being a new player.

~SJReaver as scum would not come after me as town because town!SJReaver knows I go hard after who I think is scum and would not risk getting tunneled. I don’t think 90, 91, and 92 comes from scum!SJReaver.

I don’t really have to say anything about Looker since it’s the same slot. I haven’t seen anything that has made me think otherwise on the slot. Though I was annoyed in 1312 it wasn’t a scumread.

85%

SCUM

Frogster

- I started to allude to my suspicion of Frogster in 1308. I wasn’t satisfied with the answers in 1314 and 1321. I perceived them as brush off answers. Then in 1322 changes the subject to pointlessly question Looker about his username. Again in 1366, I tried to get some type of response/reaction out of him and was again met with sarcasm (1369). And thus the reason for the vote in 1385. 1403 was an elaboration of 1385. I was ready to engage with him and understand what his thoughts were, but it seemed like he had/has something to hide so I’m good with voting him out and why he’s in my lynchpool.

90%

Gamma

- I’ve scumread Gamma since Day 2. Wasn’t able to really get a good read on him Day 1 as I forgot he was in the game although he was a top 3 poster. I think he might have been second in posting iirc. Posting that much and not being memorable had me scratching my head. After doing an iso on him Day 2 he seemed very much like a possible scum slot. I said this in 943 and then reiterated again in 1010 when I voted for him. I don’t see any changes to this read.

90%

CFJ

- I’ve been pretty suspicious of call from the beginning. His framing of events have had me scratching my head constantly. Not sure why he frames things the way he does. Sometimes in a weird way, sometimes outright false.

No one caught it but my read of callforjudgment in 381 was a parody of Trump’s description of everything being beautiful even though it’s not (read it again in Trump’s voice). Although it was delivered as a joke, it was a true read of how I thought his posts were too perfect. Townies post and do things that look scummy all the time. Call’s post were just too perfect and to me that seemed like he was trying too hard. Since Day 1, it’s been an up and down rollercoaster when trying to read him. Recently (mid-late Day 2) he has looked more town with his responses and interactions, but then he does something (1493) or says something (1589) that pushes him right back into my scumpool. I do admit, however, that callforjudgment is more of a PoE read than an actual scumread at the moment.

55%

I believe you were left alive because both of your scum reads are wrong by the way.

[Frogsterking]

The 90% ones.

[Frogsterking]

• Raya had better things to do.

---

VOTE: Raya

Don't @ me.

I feel the logical thing would be to eliminate RCEnigma today. VOTE: RCEnigma

lol Italiano he confirmed it
I agree with nos we launch rce for d3

Are you going to follow-up with this?

---

• CFJ is right - I picked geraintm over shelly D1
  • I had no idea who was scum.
• I wonder if CFJ would put this much effort into posts as either alignment. I'm willing to help him kill off RCE.
  
• There's a difference between survivalism/poor play and being scummy. I'm free to criticize either.

Among Us is taking up most of my time - it's mafiascum on steroids.

The stupid comes at you twice as fast lol

Well it appears heavily commercialized.

[Frogsterking]

Hmm..

[Frogsterking]

I don't think a mass claim is best yet.

[Frogsterking]

Ooh, an idea that could explain Gamma's actions…

@

Gamma

: Did you receive

Italiano's

Friendly Neighbour PM Night 2? That would explain your actions here; you would naturally assume that I'd fakeclaimed to receive Italiano's PM for some reason, and would be hoping to catch me in a contradiction (in this scenario, you'd be lying about the "confirms a player as town" reason for pressuring me in order to reduce the chance I caught on). The question in this scenario would be intended as a subtle way to check for a second Friendly Neighbour (with you forgetting that Nosferatu would be able to counterclaim a "no" answer and thus it would reveal the existence of a second Friendly Neighbour in the case that I was town).

I thought of two more possibilities.

[Frogsterking]

@Frogster: It seems like you’re grasping for straws at this point. CFJ is my scum partner now? Well then Nosferatu would have to be scum too since he confirmed my night action huh?

CFJ is now getting a full townread from me. CFJ, you do not have to say anything about anything and I commend you for being a cool guy.



My guess is someone tried to roleblock me while killing Taylor and was surprised that the tfn still was able to get through.

I'm grasping for straws like you're blind as a bat.

[Frogsterking]

Going on VC's alone I'd probably go CFJ today. For CFJ to be town AND have banana NOT position themselves on wagon would require an sjreaver + nos team.

Since we know for sure at the height of the CFJ wagon (E-2) Banana was off wagon and Raya had expressed CFJ as a top scumread while vote parking elsewhere. It wouldn't have taken much for scum to push that wagon through.

This seems reasonable, what happened to this train of thought?

@

Frogsterking

: Have you forgotten your screenfuls-long posts on Nosferatu? #255 and #288.

By comparison, you did basically nothing to push shelly. You had a mild scumread in #488 and didn't make any cases for a stronger read all Day (and admitted as much in #784). The only actual pushing you did was #854, very late in the Day (it's after the deadline freeze had occurred).

You're currently posting as though you had a super-strong read on shelly throughout, but your day 1 posts don't match that very well.

I believe this is an instance CFJ showed he was working with too much information. How does he

know

that Nos is town in this situation? Even if you have good reasons for a near-conftown read on Nos early D2, how can you be so certain of the alignment of multiple unflipped players to offset my reads which have already flipped correctly?

I gave too much slack here on D2 to his response:

Nosferatu isn't confirmed town. He is very likely town, though, especially given that a) he was the person who decided the D1 elimination and b) he should be an easy slot for scum to push given the general playstyle, and yet we haven't seen serious pushes on it from anyone since early Day 1 (such slots are nearly always town in practice).

c)

Also, this is what I mean by your reads being bad; in this game, you've already shown a tendency to jump to conclusions and then stick to them / overblow them even when they don't make much sense, like you did on Nosferatu. Even if he does somehow turn out to be scum, your read on him will

still

have been a bad one, because it wasn't convincing to anyone else.

There are three arguments in this post, with the second paragraph being the third argument. I'll touch on each briefly here:

a) Nosferatu didn't decide the D1 lynch, and even if he did, how did you know it wasn't a bus?

b) This argument doesn't make any sense, he had already been pushed for this very reason once this game, and Banana, a flipped scum, defended Nos, so clearly mafia have more than one way to approach a game state that contains players like Nos.

c) The second paragraph here is a redirection which isn't addressing the scum tell you exhibited at all. My ability to persuade other players to lynch Nosferatu has nothing to do with your knowledge that Nosferatu is town. And even if it did, being able to persuade other players to lynch someone is different than having good reads.

During this point in time you infer that I'm town with bad reads, when the only flipped townie, Not_Mafia, I did not FoS. So there are two issues that you never addressed D2:

1) How were you so certain of the alignment of enough unflipped players to come to the conclusion I had bad reads in the first place,

2) How the fuck do you then come to the conclusion that I'm

town

because of this?

It gets worse though, because now there have been two lynches, the first lynch where you voted a probable townie and tried to pull the vote off a confirmed scum, and the second lynch where you voted a now-confirmed townie where the second highest leading bandwagon is a now-probable scum. This second lynch mind you came AFTER derailing discussion by "defending" Raya for like what, a week? Only to quietly hop on her BW end of day like it was the most obvious progression from your slot.

And now you are "magically" just here with the outted pr left alive from yesterday who town reads you??

[Frogsterking]

I know this is insane, but I'm actually speculating on an Italiano + CFJ team right now, and there is a very clear reason why.

this was the bit j meant to say wasn't clear to ne

Yeah I was having a bit of a brain poop moment. In the moment I didn't understand how Italiano was able to get a FN off and forgot Nos had already confirmed him.

[Frogsterking]

I think we really need to look at this again. Is RCE scummier than Gamma?

hmm that is a good point.
Ill unvote for now.
VOTE: unvote

Votecount 3.2

Gamma Emerald(3)

~ Nosferatu(7), ItalianoVD(11), callforjudgement(30)

RCEnigma(2)

~ Looker(1), geraintm(10)

callforjudgement(2)

~ Frogsterking(34), Gamma Emerald(8)


Not Voting (2): RCEnigma(2), WaltertheDunce10(4)

With 9 alive it takes 5 to eliminate.

Day 3 deadline is in (expired on 2020-10-07 19:26:08)

UNVOTE: CFJ

There are 11 days to go, I'm faded, this upcoming week I will be staying in Michigan, the land of legal dispensaries, and there are methods of scum hunting which are actually useful we have not applied yet.

[Frogsterking]

I think we really need to look at this again. Is RCE scummier than Gamma?

hmm that is a good point.
Ill unvote for now.
VOTE: unvote

Votecount 3.2

Gamma Emerald(3)

~ Nosferatu(7), ItalianoVD(11), callforjudgement(30)

RCEnigma(2)

~ Looker(1), geraintm(10)

callforjudgement(2)

~ Frogsterking(34), Gamma Emerald(8)
What would those be?


Not Voting (2): RCEnigma(2), WaltertheDunce10(4)

With 9 alive it takes 5 to eliminate.

Day 3 deadline is in (expired on 2020-10-07 19:26:08)

UNVOTE: CFJ

There are 11 days to go, I'm faded, this upcoming week I will be staying in Michigan, the land of legal dispensaries, and there are methods of scum hunting which are actually useful we have not applied yet.

In roughly but not strictly chronological order:

1. Meta for behavior of both alignments for each living player, to establish a baseline from which tells can be drawn. Must be done ASAP.
2. Self-reported psychometric analysis for each living player, placing us on the continuum of each category of OCEAN. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_ ... ity_traits If anyone is not familiar with the big five traits I can provide clarification for each one.
3. Self-reported answers to: a) How often we lie each day, b) Who we tend to lie to (strangers, acquaintances, family, etc.), c) Our lifetime experience playing mafia or related "social deduction" games.
4. Our self-reported beliefs and motivations during several key moments in the game, decided by our PR, in reverse chronological order.
5. Meta for behavior that appears in only one alignment for each player, or "signs" or "tells" of an alignment.
6. Analysis of the reads of every dead player.
7. Analysis of the interactions of every dead player.
8. Overall analysis of the choice of the night kill.
9. Analysis of

all

bandwagons that have occured (aka "VCA".)

Executing this plan will require all players to comply with answering the questions in steps 2, 3, and 4, and the pr to decide which moments are considered key for step 4. This means that even if a player disagrees with this approach or is choosing to lurk, they will still be able to comply with the plan in only a single post, as long as they answer the questions in 2, 3 and 4.

In order to finish each step with the appropriate depth and breadth to be effective and avoid overwhelming influence from maf in the given time frame (11 days), completing steps 1 and 5-9 will require at least four different players to participate. I will volunteer to participate.

There is also more meta information available on my playstyle I will volunteer: on epicmafia.com, after registering and searching for an account named AngryFrog, under "Recent Games" you will be able to skim read how I approach both alignments during every stage of the game, albeit a different medium of mafia, it will be more helpful than my history here which is sparse.

In addition, I will post an annotated list of references tomorrow morning or evening, which provide some evidence and/or instruction and/or inspiration on these steps I've suggested.

[Frogsterking]

K, don't know why my quote up there has no words but k.

It showed up in the middle.

[Frogsterking]

K, don't know why my quote up there has no words but k.

It showed up in the middle.

Underneath the votecount, you said "and what might those be?" or something along those lines.

[Frogsterking]

I don’t know why I’m up so stinking early but I am.

Alcohol causes us to wake up earlier.

[Frogsterking]

Sure, I’ll indulge you. We have plenty of time.

Great:

Spoiler:

I think we really need to look at this again. Is RCE scummier than Gamma?

hmm that is a good point.
Ill unvote for now.
VOTE: unvote

Votecount 3.2

Gamma Emerald(3)

~ Nosferatu(7), ItalianoVD(11), callforjudgement(30)

RCEnigma(2)

~ Looker(1), geraintm(10)

callforjudgement(2)

~ Frogsterking(34), Gamma Emerald(8)
What would those be?


Not Voting (2): RCEnigma(2), WaltertheDunce10(4)

With 9 alive it takes 5 to eliminate.

Day 3 deadline is in (expired on 2020-10-07 19:26:08)

UNVOTE: CFJ

There are 11 days to go, I'm faded, this upcoming week I will be staying in Michigan, the land of legal dispensaries, and there are methods of scum hunting which are actually useful we have not applied yet.

In roughly but not strictly chronological order:

1. Meta for behavior of both alignments for each living player, to establish a baseline from which tells can be drawn. Must be done ASAP.
2. Self-reported psychometric analysis for each living player, placing us on the continuum of each category of OCEAN. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_ ... ity_traits If anyone is not familiar with the big five traits I can provide clarification for each one.
3. Self-reported answers to: a) How often we lie each day, b) Who we tend to lie to (strangers, acquaintances, family, etc.), c) Our lifetime experience playing mafia or related "social deduction" games.

4. Our self-reported beliefs and motivations during several key moments in the game, decided by our PR, in reverse chronological order.

Spoiler:

5. Meta for behavior that appears in only one alignment for each player, or "signs" or "tells" of an alignment.
6. Analysis of the reads of every dead player.
7. Analysis of the interactions of every dead player.
8. Overall analysis of the choice of the night kill.
9. Analysis of

all

bandwagons that have occured (aka "VCA".)

Executing this plan will require all players to comply with answering the questions in steps 2, 3, and 4, and the pr to decide which moments are considered key for step 4. This means that even if a player disagrees with this approach or is choosing to lurk, they will still be able to comply with the plan in only a single post, as long as they answer the questions in 2, 3 and 4.

In order to finish each step with the appropriate depth and breadth to be effective and avoid overwhelming influence from maf in the given time frame (11 days), completing steps 1 and 5-9 will require at least four different players to participate. I will volunteer to participate.

There is also more meta information available on my playstyle I will volunteer: on epicmafia.com, after registering and searching for an account named AngryFrog, under "Recent Games" you will be able to skim read how I approach both alignments during every stage of the game, albeit a different medium of mafia, it will be more helpful than my history here which is sparse.

In addition, I will post an annotated list of references tomorrow morning or evening, which provide some evidence and/or instruction and/or inspiration on these steps I've suggested.

Please choose the key moments for players to describe for our reverse-narratives in step 4.

Then I can combine steps 2-4 into a survey which can be answered in a single post in 5 to 10 minutes. That way while we establish the baseline meta for each living player in step 1, the playerlist can respond to the survey.

[Frogsterking]

I think we all need to drink some tea and calm down.

[Frogsterking]

Yes I would 100% recommend not hammering Gamma.

[Frogsterking]

Hammer outside of Gamma today, and figure out a way to confirm/deny his role.

[Frogsterking]

Hammer outside of Gamma today, and figure out a way to confirm/deny his role.

Really?
Who would you suggest?

He's a tracker so confirm him somehow.

[Frogsterking]

The playerlist is getting smaller so tracker will have higher chances of hitting a guilty. Especially being a a tracker that is already outted, he can just share his guilty with the rest of town and get the scum lynched. That means he should draw either the night kill or the role block.

[Frogsterking]

If he's scum then he will have to continue to make up reports tomorrow which might make it more obvious to lynch him. If he's town then his report will be useful.

[Frogsterking]

I think we should have looked at the bandwagons that have formed most recently

[Frogsterking]

I think we should have looked at the bandwagons that have formed most recently

I think if we look at the bandwagons that have formed on D3 there will be someone who seems like a decent lynch that isn't a power role claim.

[Frogsterking]

@frogster you aren't voting anyone right now, you aren't pushing a lych, you just don't want gamma killed. you seem like you are trying switch the trolley to a different track

Calm dude it's okay we will get them..

we can talk about our choices..

[Frogsterking]

Walter for real how much have you suspected that Italiano is scum in this game?

[Frogsterking]

I'm a VT Walter confirmed to me N1

[Frogsterking]

Ooh, an idea that could explain Gamma's actions…

@

Gamma

: Did you receive

Italiano's

Friendly Neighbour PM Night 2? That would explain your actions here; you would naturally assume that I'd fakeclaimed to receive Italiano's PM for some reason, and would be hoping to catch me in a contradiction (in this scenario, you'd be lying about the "confirms a player as town" reason for pressuring me in order to reduce the chance I caught on). The question in this scenario would be intended as a subtle way to check for a second Friendly Neighbour (with you forgetting that Nosferatu would be able to counterclaim a "no" answer and thus it would reveal the existence of a second Friendly Neighbour in the case that I was town).

I thought of two more possibilities.

Given that Gamma has flipped now, and as a consequence answering this question won't leak any information: what were the other possibilities?

Gamma could be a motion tracker

Gamma could be a watcher