Newbie 2027 | Doggos | Town Win

[Mundivore]

UNVOTE: shellyc

Hey everyone, there's a lot of material for me to catchup on. Fortunately, I read through everything last night! I'm not going to provide any original analysis b/c the body of work is simply too overwhelming to pick from, but here are my reads after going over the whole thread.

Likely scum: PlusJOYED, Sirius.

Possibly scum: Sceptorous, Noraa

Possibly town: Echo, Frogster

Likely town: Shelly, 72

The case against PlusJOYED in the last few pages is really strong—mafia lying as doctor in order to get a lynch is about the dumbest thing you can do as scum. One free kill on a townie is usually not worth one free kill on scum in return. So either shelly is town and JOYED is scum, or it's just a bad play where shelly is scum and JOYED is town, and we take those.

I'm quite Sus of Sirius just because of behavior, running around like VI and then lurking about and changing vote to whoever seems like the next active lynch target just feels super scummy to me. The fact that Plus is scum and JOYED scumread them doesn't even make me think that they're less scummy. If I were scum and I saw my partner acting like that, I'd scumread them to hell and back. The way Sirius is acting is going to get them lynched eventually, and if I knew they were scum I'd want to get ahead of that. Then again, if Sirius were town then I'd also want to try to get the free lynch in. If shelly is doctor, that means we have either cop or tracker. I'd say Sirius is an excellent target for them tonight.

Mild sus of Noraa, but I can't do anything more than reiterate what others have said. Lurking is innately scummy, but honestly Sceptorous just seems AFK. Semi-sus of Echo, not wanting to be town-read just feels weird. Scum wants to be town-read, but

so does town.

I take it mostly as humor but still feels weird. Frogster always contributes cogent information, but contributes infrequently. Town lean but I'm not committed to it yet.

I'd be down to kill JOYED. I've seen enough that I'm confident he's scum. However, I'm not going to vote yet, I'm waiting until everyone's satisfied with the body of analysis and willing to kill.

[Mundivore]

Didn't really read the last page very well. Noraa is behaving super sus, moving Noraa up to "likely scum" in my reads.

[Mundivore]

Feel like JOYED/Sirius is a bit more likely than JOYED/Noraa. It'd be pretty audacious to honestly claim it was TvT as a calculated scum play, because TvT with these claims is clearly impossible. It's a lot more likely that Noraa is just actually and legitimately confused.

JOYED feeling even more obviously scum than before, fishing for town PRs. I'm tempted to throw my vote on now so there isn't any weird chicanery where the deadline passes and we don't get our scum kill. JOYED self-hammering is a real concern though. I'm just going to wait around because (a) we haven't heard from everyone yet after the counterclaim went down, and I think that still has value and (b) extending the day a bit gives our GM more time to work out that replacement. Think of it as my vote is on Plus, but with a delay.

[Mundivore]

@Noraa:

I'm just using Plus and JOYED to refer to the same person interchangeably and I haven't settled on a consistent shortening for his name.

[Mundivore]

Doesn't help that I couldn't remember Sirius' pronouns and so I went for 'they' as my pronoun for Sirius, which could be misconstrued as me using 'they' to refer to 'Plus and JOYED' as too separate people.

[Mundivore]

If I were to rephrase it, I'd say "The fact that Plus is scum and

he

scumread

Sirius

doesn't even make me think that

Sirius is

less scummy. If I were scum and I saw my partner acting like that, I'd scumread them to hell and back."

[Mundivore]

A town pr verifying me and damning shelly, will save us from eliming a townie here, which is the current trajectory. And if a pr counterclaims me and sides with shelly, when I flip green the game will be solved. Or vice versa.

Let's say you are town. You're trying to do what, get the Town Jailkeeper to claim? Sure, that stops us from eliminating town, but now the town have no real power roles. Scum kill the Jailkeeper and your power role does nothing since you confirm yourself town. I'd rather sacrifice the TFN to prove that shelly is scum than sacrifice the Jailkeeper to prove it.

Or maybe you're trying to get the Town Tracker to claim? That's the only other option, but it's a stupid option because Tracker/TFN and Tracker/Doctor are

both valid.

And even then, a tracker is

still better

than a TFN who has already confirmed themselves town.

Besides, it's such incredibly cocky scumplay to sacrifice a scum in order to kill a TFN in a game with a tracker or a jailkeeper lurking about. They'd be exposing themselves to

one

bad night being enough to end the game for them. No way shelly is fake-claiming here. And if she

is

then it's a misplay and we take those.

[Mundivore]

Redados replaces Sceptorus

Hold up then who did mundivore replace?

Nikaang.

[Mundivore]

Whoops, spelling.

Aaaannyways, Plus is superscum here. Definitely fishing to see if there's a jailkeeper IMO, b/c he's asking for a counterclaim which simply

doesn't work

if there's a tracker, but is still saying that a tracker claiming would prove his innocence.

[Mundivore]

Well, not so much fishing to see if there's a jailkeeper so much as fishing in general. Obv scum is obv.

[Mundivore]

Hold up, let's review this from scum position.

Scum know which column of D3 it is from the getgo. Knowing that, JOYED fakeclaims as TFN because it occurs in 2/3s of the games they could be in.

shelly CC's as doctor.

Now scum knows 100% which type of game they're in.

They know that the last PR is a tracker. That's why JOYED isn't saying a logical town thing ('if there's a Jailkeeper they can CC and prove me townie') and instead is saying that if there's a jailkeeper

or

a tracker then they can claim to prove that he's town. Because Plus is scum, plus knows there's a tracker, and so Plus is fishing for tracker.

Worst case scenario is that you fakeclaimed as TFN when you're really VT. And if that's the case, that's bad play and it's on you to die for it.

@Noraa

Because shelly claimed doctor. If we kill Plus and he's TFN, then there are no game types in the format which allow for both a Doctor and a TFN. (It's a pretty hard to beat combination: TFN claims Day 1, gets doctor protection the whole game while handing out proof-of-town receipts to anyone who doubts).

[Mundivore]

Check post 2 for a list of all possible games we could be in. This is why we know that either shelly or Plus is scum, and the other isn't.

[Mundivore]

Fuck.
I am the town friendly neighbor.

dude next game don't claim TFN as scum

I'm YOUR TOWN DOCTOR EVERYONE

no this isn't on him, this is on you
why would you request a claim from someone that you can't hammer
why would you request a claim from someone that I TOLD EVERYONE NOT TO HAMMER
why would you request a claim from someone when there's TWO SLOTS BEING REPLACED
WHY

on top of that;
why would you counterclaim as such an important PR on DAY 1 when there's so many things that tell you not to
i just don't understand

why wouldn't you just wait for n1 and when nobody says "i received a PM saying that he was town" then we rock that shit
why would you claim doc
even if it's false
why

UNVOTE:
i fully intend to vote for shelly after this shit show went down

IDK I think CC'ing as Doctor to get a 100% scum kill is pretty worth it. Doctor is worth more than a townie, but on average Doctor doesn't usually get to save anyone. Doctor can turn the game with their night action, but using your role (by way of counterclaim) to 100% prove scum is better than the usual ceiling you get out of the night role (when you save someone you prove that they're town and give town an extra day of discussion). Saving two people is probably better than getting one scum (two town confirms plus one extra town kill), but I'd say Doctors don't generally get to do that on average. If I were in shelly's position, I'd do the same.

[Mundivore]

Do the same as far as counterclaiming, that is. Asking for the claim in the first place was admittedly quite bold.

[Mundivore]

If y'all put Plus at E-1 he could self-hammer. I don't have any problems with him getting lim'd but I also do want to see 72 comment on this nonsense. Not too upset if we go for the hammer right now, but we've got a day and a bit so we aren't in a rush yet. I think we've seen enough people talk that it's pretty clear we aren't going to get a third PR claim so there's no real danger in waiting. I'm not going to plonk my vote down until we have like ~12 hours left or we finish hearing from people, whichever comes first.

That being said, there's waiting for 72's comment is basically the only reason we have to wait, and ultimately I don't think they'll get nightkilled. I won't read scum into anyone who wants to move to night yet.

Happy to see you redados, AFKs are no fun.

[Mundivore]

though truth be told, eliming a provable pr role is pretty dumb as town.

If we weren't to elim you or shelly, who would we elim?

[Mundivore]

The sole function of TFN is to be provably town. If you're telling the truth, then this is just action economy: eliming you is using that night action on every player in the game at once

((Dear god this is a joke please read it as such))

[Mundivore]

I'm actually leaning more towards sirius or froster. Froster feels kinda fake, following what people have been saying without really solving and Sirius is sirius. I'm null on 72o now atm

I could

maybe

get behind a sirius elim

if

we can agree to do it in a coordinated way.

Town agrees to nominate one person to receive TFN towny message. Shelly agrees to protect that person.

If towny nominee or Plus dies, shelly is lying and we kill.

If shelly dies, Plus is lying and we kill.

If something else happens, then we have the nominee say if they got the message or not.

If they did, shelly is lying or the nominee is lying. We kill shelly, and if shelly isn't scum then we're at worst 3 vs. 2 with a confirmed scum team of nominee + Plus and town wins the game. If shelly is scum, we're at worst at 4 vs. 1 with no confirmation.

If they didn't get message, then we kill plus and we're at worst at 4 vs. 1.

If nobody dies night 1, then scum is doubleplusstupid and PlusJOYED is lying.

That's a... decent set of outcomes. Killing scum that isn't plus on day one definitely wins the game for town.

I feel like this is more of a "bird in the hand" type of scenario, though. If we kill Plus now then we're at worst going to be at 4 vs. 1, which is more or less the same worst-case outcome we get by going with the above convoluted scheme that has so many more moving parts and points of failure. I feel like town is throwing by not limming plus here.

[Mundivore]

I feel like town is throwing by not limming plus here.

We'll lim Plus.

lol yeah I figured. Meant that in a hypothetical sense.

[Mundivore]

The sole function of TFN is to be provably town. If you're telling the truth, then this is just action economy: eliming you is using that night action on every player in the game at once

((Dear god this is a joke please read it as such))

Yeah there is a serious point in here that even if we're wrong about PLUS we did still get value out of the TFN role since it caused shelly to claim.

A one-shot cop is a pretty decent role. Especially if it hits scum. I would trade almost

any

town PR for a plain old mafia goon. The danger here isn't trading Doctor or TFN for scum, the danger is wasting the town elim.

[Mundivore]

I'm actually leaning more towards sirius or froster. Froster feels kinda fake, following what people have been saying without really solving and Sirius is sirius. I'm null on 72o now atm

I could

maybe

get behind a sirius elim

if

we can agree to do it in a coordinated way.

Town agrees to nominate one person to receive TFN towny message. Shelly agrees to protect that person.

If towny nominee or Plus dies, shelly is lying and we kill.

If shelly dies, Plus is lying and we kill.

If something else happens, then we have the nominee say if they got the message or not.

If they did, shelly is lying or the nominee is lying. We kill shelly, and if shelly isn't scum then we're at worst 3 vs. 2 with a confirmed scum team of nominee + Plus and town wins the game. If shelly is scum, we're at worst at 4 vs. 1 with no confirmation.

If they didn't get message, then we kill plus and we're at worst at 4 vs. 1.

If nobody dies night 1, then scum is doubleplusstupid and PlusJOYED is lying.

That's a... decent set of outcomes. Killing scum that isn't plus on day one definitely wins the game for town.

I feel like this is more of a "bird in the hand" type of scenario, though. If we kill Plus now then we're at worst going to be at 4 vs. 1, which is more or less the same worst-case outcome we get by going with the above convoluted scheme that has so many more moving parts and points of failure. I feel like town is throwing by not limming plus here.

LMAO. This is potentially a very strong plan. If we nominate the wrong player on accident and they lie, then after we mis lynch shelly it's 5-way lylo and the scum team is confirmed.

The prob is now everyone in this game knows about this plan and all the little tricks and stuff u put in so it will no longer work....

The only way this plan doesn't work is misexecution on the town's part: I already accounted for all the possible night actions scum could take.

The thing is, giving town's record this game, I think misexecution of the plan is likely enough that we shouldn't jump on it

[Mundivore]

Another reason not to go for this whole scheme of not killing Plus today is because our PR has some investigative power no matter how the game is set up. Tracker or Cop can both find scum, Jailkeeper can find scum but more slowly (while giving town more time), and those are the only options for second town PR.

We win on Day 2 with the scheme only when we correctly choose the non-shelly, non-Plus scum today, but we're also looking for them blind without any town-aligned night actions. If we go for unraveling the whole shelly vs. Plus scum tango first, then our PR has a decent chance of figuring out the second target outright without us ever having to do guesswork.

[Mundivore]

This whole mess is giving me a migraine. All this waffling is just going to shoot us in the foot.

I don't care if we eliminate shelly or if we eliminate Plus, but one of them has to go. It's a throw of tremendous proportions if we don't take our guaranteed one-for-one and go on. Town can only afford two missed eliminations. Are we really going to go for a

complete guess

Day 1 instead of the 50/50?

So obv. shelly + Plus are one town, one scum. Of the remaining:

I don't like Redados b/c I feel like he's trying to pocket me and b/c he gave no warning for the 'hammer' (fake hammer b/c everyone miscounted b/c of Echo's unvote)

I don't like Noraa b/c every time she posts it confuses me... very weird play, especially on insistence that shelly and plus might be two town.

I don't like Sirius b/c it seems like his primary goal is just to see people elimmed. Only shows up to defend case against person on chopping block and vote for new person.

I don't like Echo b/c he's rude af. Dude chill out. Nothing really AI about being rude but I don't like the way he plays. Raising people's hackles doesn't help you find scum, if anything it muddies the waters. I also don't like that he's open to a kill outside of the two entangled players. I'd rather kill shelly than not kill plus or shelly.

Frogster and 72 are my only town reads for now.

I like the idea of a Shelly+Sirius scumteam. Sirius earlywagons shelly and then hops to the first viable alternative feels like aggressive scum play where you vote your partner to divert attention from your connection early. I also like the idea of Noraa + Plus scumteam, it almost feels like Nora's been trying to divert things ever since Plus was put on the chopping block.

[Mundivore]

Some thoughts:

Scum know what column of game we're in. Scum shouldn't want to fake-claim a role that they know is in the game because of exactly this situation: they get counter-claimed and then one for one'd. With that in mind, TFN with no townies dead at night is a very bad fakeclaim. Scum knows which which column we're in. If we're in Column A or Column C, then there's only a one-in-three chance that you can make that claim without someone being able to counterclaim you. In Column A, the Tracker and the Jailkeeper in A2 can both be in the same game as the TFN. The Jailkeeper and the VT in B2 can also both be in the same game as a TFN. Otherwise, the town has at least one PR that can counterclaim you. If you're in Column B, it's actually impossible to avoid a counterclaim—either there's a Doctor (who can't be in the same game as a TFN) or there's a TFN (who can counter).

As dumb as the TFN fakeclaim is, it still makes

no

sense in comparison to a Doctor fake'd counterclaim. The

best realistic case

is that you trade in some scum 1-for-1. This is just really weird no matter who's scum here. (Beyond that, when no people have died, C1 is the only world in which scum can get away with a Doctor fakeclaim without eventually getting 1-for-1'd.)

I'm still leaning on Plus being scum. If shelly is scum, she's literally gone and thrown the game for her scum-mate. Creating this 1-for-1-at-worst scenario is pro-town, and so I choose to believe that shelly being town is most likely. Beyond that, we can't forget that Plus was fishing for PRs when it looked pretty certain he was going down. Shelly did too for some reason?? I'm not sure how to feel about it, but she only did it once while Plus' efforts were sustained. And I'm kind of done joking around here, I'm going to drop my vote of Plus before I go to bed tonight, this mess is getting ridiculous.

VOTE: PlusJOYED

Sirius I can't read you properly at all. My clowndar is reading 100% on you, and that's most of what I've got. I'd say it's like you contribute your scumreads by dartboard, but it's worse—you take votes that seems almost universally attempts at starting bandwagons. Everyone votes shelly early? Vote shelly. People start switching to Plus and you switch to Plus. Now things are heating up between which one to kill, and you spontaneously switch to the member which is neither of them who is considered sus by the most people. I agree that Noraa is fishy as fuck, but your play is frustrating.

We've got a scum kill, if not today then tomorrow.

Bird in the hand.

Don't go running off into the bushes, people.

[Mundivore]

Oh, btw I should mention that my vote puts Plus at... E-2, right? That seems right. Just take care not to accidentally hammer, or to accidentally 'hammer' again.

[Mundivore]

I'll be quite cheesed indeed if we don't get our day one elimination.

Also, I find it weird that Sirius saying that JOYED/Noraa scumteam is likely and then voting for Noraa rather than JOYED. There's a way to make sure town gets to use their elimination and this isn't it, feels like distraction tactics.

[Mundivore]

get it over with! pl0x.

[Mundivore]

VC DAY 1 FINAL

shellyc (3)

- PlusJOYED, Redados, EchoVision

PlusJOYED (5)

- shellyc, Mundivore, 72offsuit, Frogsterking, Noraa

Noraa (1)

- Sirius9121

Redados (1)

- Noraa

With 9 unfortunate souls alive, you need 5 votes to eliminate.

PlusJOYED has been eliminated!

Who was voting for Shelly? It was PlusJOYED, Redados, and EchoVision. I'm feeling like all those guys are town. In fact I am 100% without a doubt sure.

Who was not voting for Shelly? It was Mundivore, Shelly, 72offsuit, Frogsterking, Noraa, and Sirius9121. I feel like the scum lies in this set of players.

We can pack it up guys, I did it! I solved the game! I love voting analysis. Very useful.

lmao

Excellent deduction

Honestly, I'm just flabbergasted that Shelly did that. It feels very throw, I can't imagine a situation that outing yourself as scum day one is worth one miselimination...

VOTE: Mundivore

Here's to solidifying my FoS with a vote.

I feel that's a pretty reasonable suspicion to have, given the way I was pushing for a elim on a townie last round, but I'd appreciate it if you withdraw your vote until we take care of shelly. If one more townie votes, scum could quickhammer me, which I'd not be too happy with. And while in theory that would lead to town victory (since y'all would know who's who) this has already been a very weird game and I'd rather not risk it.

Would anyone have any complaints if I put down my vote on Shelly? I don't know how much we can glean from this day, and I'd like the ratio of townies to scum to improve before we spend too much time thinking—two scum votes are a lot more dangerous than one, especially when one of those scum votes is completely divulged of any responsibility to look town.

[Mundivore]

There were four sources I used for BW vs BW which is a part of a method for scum hunting called "Vote Count Analysis". The links below may not all work and might have to be copy + pasted into the web browser :

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... unting#VCA
https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... _VCA_Guide
https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=VCA

Also a discussion topic on the forums here:

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?t=70951

If you can't get these links to work (taking you to separate pages each) I'll do some more fanangling.

99% of my experience playing this game comes from a single website, EpicMafia (also the same website shelly is from) which is a live-chat format of this game, where vote count analysis is not commonly applied to this level of depth because behavioral scum tells are more reliable, so I'm learning about this topic as well.

The gist of it is that Nora's confusion/confliction about which side to hammer is a town tell and assuming shelly flips scum then Growlithe's refusal to take part is also a town tell. Had the hammer been town vs town then Growlithe's irreverant behavior would have been a scum tell instead because it's an indicator he knew result would not matter.

I'm not sure about Sirius' irreverence being a town tell in this case. Sirius seems to be irreverent kind of just period.

I actually thought about this game quite a bit during the night. I came to the conclusion that Mundivore is scum, and if not him then 72offsuit. I'm actually pleased with the night results as well, even though Echo died who was one of my strongest town reads, he was also my read for the PR, so the fact he flipped VT is a bit of silver lining for me. I think his death is also incriminating for Mundi, who Echo pushed yesterday.

I'd be curious to hear your cases for these scumreads, particularly on 72.

[Mundivore]

VOTE: Shellyc

Also, Shelly is at E-1, I think?

Would anyone have any complaints if I put down my vote on Shelly? I don't know how much we can glean from this day, and I'd like the ratio of townies to scum to improve before we spend too much time thinking—two scum votes are a lot more dangerous than one, especially when one of those scum votes is completely divulged of any responsibility to look town.

In retrospect, this kind of means 'intent to hammer' since we all know Shelly is scum. I don't intend to hammer yet, we should make sure everyone checks in at least once so that if anyone has good insights, we get to see them before night.

[Mundivore]

[Mundivore]

Alright I was thinking about how frog voted while I was eating and here's what I think now: Since plus is tfn, we are in column b of the chart thingie. That means that we have a mafia goon and a mafia roleblocker. Shelly outed scum d1. Imo that means she is a mafia goon. So I will, along with frog, attempt to find the mafia roleblocker. I would like to put some pressure on Mundivore for pushing me towards a plus lim. VOTE: Mundivore

I pressured you to make a kill because we had hours left on the deadline for a day and I didn't want to throw it away. Also, most of what you said here is totally nonrelevant? It's also not even correct, there's a rolecop, not a roleblocker. IDK why you're buddying up to Frog so hard, but it's making me all kinds of uncomfortable.

I'm still sus of you from Day 1, and this doesn't help your case. Scum bandwagon here could totally kill a townie. I don't agree with Frog's statement that your waffling is indicative of towniness—deliberating extra long to eventually end up on the townie side of a scum-versus-town vote-off feels extra scum to me, not less scum.

And I stg if I get hammered day 2 when we have confirmed scum I will personally call each of you a clown in the next game we play together (only once tho I won't hold a grudge)

VOTE: shellyc

because SOMEONE has to vote for the confirmed scum

[Mundivore]

@ Mundivore - who is scum?

Either Sirius or Noraa. Leaning towards Sirius because of bloodthirsty voting on Day 1.

[Mundivore]

I was just offering a possibility that 72 is the last scum bc I feel like specifically asking one person, especially one that barely just replaced in and hasn't talked much, is a bit ... strange

I mean, Mundivore has been in the game as long/longer than I have? And he replaced in on day one and it is now day three? And he hasn't talked much? I think that 72's observations/thoughts here are totally fair.

That'd be 'they' not 'he.' Please and thank you in advance.

Well but Mundivore hasn't talked much imo. Also just something I realized while looking back on day 2 was that Frog started the wagon on Mundivore. My lim pool(I think that's the correct term) for today is {Mundivore, 72}
are we supposed to use curly brackets or normal? {[{[?

My reasons: I was a lil sus of mundivore the day before which is why I jumped on that wagon. Then frog died so im now pretty sus. I think its possible scum did this purposefully knowing how people would react but for now, im seriously sus. 72 I have voted for multiple times actually. I used to be very sus of him for various reasons but that kinda died down as he got really inactive and frog and a few others expressed they had TRs on him. I think these are my lim pool cuz sirius and redados I am 99% sure aren't scum. then again my reads r often very wonky. But my reasons there are Redados seems to be trying pretty hard to solve for town. He had one post that said something like he was gonna get killed for one of his posts or something. That seemed town to me cuz scum wouldn't say that I don't think. Cuz scum might be like hm if I say that, people will expect that I will get nightkilled but then if I don't, peeps will be sus. idk or something like that. Sirius doesnt seem to be taking things very seriously but I feel like scum would def be taking things seriously. Anyways if anyone thinks my reads need more evidence to back them up, I can go get some but im seriously lazy so I would prefer not

I'm still weirded out that you jumped onto my wagon when shelly was confirmed scum. That's such a weird risk to take.

[Mundivore]

And actually, we can't just sit around all day doing nothing. So let's start with VOTE: Noraa.

1. I think there's even odds you're scum so I wouldn't be upset to see you go.

2. I want to see what people's reactions to this vote are.

[Mundivore]

I mean, Nikahang just voted for shelly over and over and never did anything else that game. It's possible for scum to do that, but it would be weird. I'd expect scum to do something more like Sirius did—lead with a vote on a scummate if it was a wagon, then hop to the freshest wagon. Sirius likes wagons so far, and in my experience that's a scum trait.

But my voting for you is not OMGUS. I've been sus of you since Day 1 lmao. I'm mostly voting just to see what happens, there are a couple of different reactions I'm interested in seeing.

Also, just gotta say, if I was scum:

1) I walk in and shelly has just made that crazy play. Why would I have pressured a kill on Plus so aggressively? It was probably completely unnecessary to get the kill (considering plus himself was angling for it) and ultimately got a lot more attention put on me. It's also debatable that it's

even better

for scum if I don't pressure you into making the kill and let you go the day without the kill happening. It puts the game into the same game-state (ultimately town still has wasted an elim, so scum still gets another night) except that now scum has more control over the outcome. Scum has more flexible options if there's no kill: they can NK plus to create the same game-state, we're currently in, or gamble on the set of possible night-actions to hope for a scenario where nobody receives Plus' night action to try to get shelly to live for another day

2) Frankly, the fact that the people who were NK'd were all people who FoS'd me at some point is NAI. I've seen scum try to use their NK's to frame people more often than I've seen them try to use them to eliminate critics. Think about it: the way scum wins is by getting them to waste their elims. There is no other victory condition for scum, that's just how the numbers play out. Every time town kills a townie, scum gets one more night. Every time town skips a vote and every other time after that, scum gets another night. Scum need three false elims to win in total.

Defensive NKs point a bunch of arrows towards you. It might reduce some day suspicion, but if someone notices, there's a decent chance the town tries to kill you. It puts you in the spotlight even if you successfully defend yourself in the daythread, and might force you to try to fakeclaim to stay alive, which often leads to a 50/50 which is quite bad for scum. Meanwhile, framing someone else with your NK's puts

them

in the spotlight, taking pressure off of you. It's especially effective if you don't draw attention to it, and see if someone else connects the dots to the person you're framing, although you can pull it out yourself to get the final miselim too. Basically, as scum, you don't want to be feeding townies lines that give them better odds of catching scum than elim'ing purely randomly, and playing often leads to that.

3) Let's say I am scum, and I am using my NK defensively. I'd rather kill 72 than Frogster: 72 also announced suspicion of me, and while Frogster FoS'd me Day 2, I seem to recall that he liked me Day 1. Not sure on that. Either way, 72 seems to have more of a proclivity towards tunneling on scum targets, and I was his sole scumread at that point. His initial suspicion of shelly was long and aggressive, and after the counterclaim nonsense he continued to think that Plus was scum. I think it's pretty clear that 72 and shelly can't have been scummates, so I definitely would have killed him night 2 if I hadn't on night 1.

I actually still think that the Sirius/shelly scumteam is a bit more plausible than the Noraa/shelly scumteam. I'm mostly just trying to get discussion rolling, and people tend to start replying when you vote for them. To that end,

VOTE: Sirius9121

What do you think about all this, huh?

[Mundivore]

Acknowledged and my apologies.

No hard feelings.

Then again Echo also had the purest townie energy ... ever so that might be the reason behind that maybe?

IMO Echo was limmed because he was basically conftown and he wasn't going to get mislimmed. I don't think we're really going to get info out of that.

Honestly, I feel like I really don't understand why Echo was so confirmed town? I feel like I missed something, could you give me a run down for future reference?

Okay, I'll bite. I think that 72offsuit has to be confirmed town. The reason for this is he was active when Shelly asked PLUSjoy to claim and when Shelly claimed doctor. I think that if 72 were scum, he would have told Shelly that that was an awful idea.

Mundivore was not active during this time, so I think it would still make sense for them to be Shelly's partner. It would also make sense for Noraa to be scum for the same reason since she is new and arguably would not have had the know-how to tell Shelly that it was a bad idea.

I think that one of Noraa's towntells has been her confusion and that if she were scum she would probably have a better idea of what's going on (like thinking there was a mafia roleblocker). However, in Newbie 2019 ShellyC pulled this same type of thing off perfectly; she tricked people into thinking she was noob!town when she actually had a better understanding of stuff than she let on.

I wish that the mafia hadn't killed the conftown people but I guess that's how the game works.

Sirius I go back and forth on.

Here are my preferred lims today in order:

1. Mundivore
2. Noraa
3. Sirius
4. 72
5. Redados

My list of preferred elims is pretty similar. I'd like to see myself lower on the list, and 72 below you, but other than that I'm happy with it. I'm 98% sure that scum is between Sirius and Noraa.

[Mundivore]

Actually, I'm happy with my vote where it was. VOTE: Noraa.

I think there's a good chance town has just won. Let me explain:

I'm the Tracker. Night 1, I followed Sirius. No action—unless shelly did both actions Night 1, which risks being totally shut down by a potential Jailer, then Sirius is town. Night 2, I followed Redados. No action, so Redados is conftown. By play, 72 is very likely town.

Scenario 1: Nobody counterclaims me. This makes me conftown. We kill Noraa. If that's somehow not right... well, we'll see. It's probably 72 in this case, I think it's more likely that 72 couldn't reign in a teammate than that scum would risk getting both their kill and their rolecop read eaten by a potential Jailer. However, I'm pretty sure it's Noraa at this point—I misremembered, and thought that my Night 1 action was on 72, not Sirius, hence my not getting to this sooner.

Scenario 2: I get counterclaimed. It's 50/50 between me and the person who counterclaims. We have room for one miselim, so we just kill both and Town wins 100% of the time.

I admit that this has a failure condition, but with three FoS's on me already, I think claiming now isn't too aggressive anyways. Worst case scenario still involves dodging me getting miselim'd—the only way town should kill me after this claim is if scum counter-claims.

[Mundivore]

I mean, Nikahang just voted for shelly over and over and never did anything else that game. It's possible for scum to do that, but it would be weird. I'd expect scum to do something more like Sirius did—lead with a vote on a scummate if it was a wagon, then hop to the freshest wagon. Sirius likes wagons so far, and in my experience that's a scum trait.

But my voting for you is not OMGUS. I've been sus of you since Day 1 lmao. I'm mostly voting just to see what happens, there are a couple of different reactions I'm interested in seeing.

Also, just gotta say, if I was scum:

1) I walk in and shelly has just made that crazy play. Why would I have pressured a kill on Plus so aggressively? It was probably completely unnecessary to get the kill (considering plus himself was angling for it) and ultimately got a lot more attention put on me. It's also debatable that it's

even better

for scum if I don't pressure you into making the kill and let you go the day without the kill happening. It puts the game into the same game-state (ultimately town still has wasted an elim, so scum still gets another night) except that now scum has more control over the outcome. Scum has more flexible options if there's no kill: they can NK plus to create the same game-state, we're currently in, or gamble on the set of possible night-actions to hope for a scenario where nobody receives Plus' night action to try to get shelly to live for another day

2) Frankly, the fact that the people who were NK'd were all people who FoS'd me at some point is NAI. I've seen scum try to use their NK's to frame people more often than I've seen them try to use them to eliminate critics. Think about it: the way scum wins is by getting them to waste their elims. There is no other victory condition for scum, that's just how the numbers play out. Every time town kills a townie, scum gets one more night. Every time town skips a vote and every other time after that, scum gets another night. Scum need three false elims to win in total.

Defensive NKs point a bunch of arrows towards you. It might reduce some day suspicion, but if someone notices, there's a decent chance the town tries to kill you. It puts you in the spotlight even if you successfully defend yourself in the daythread, and might force you to try to fakeclaim to stay alive, which often leads to a 50/50 which is quite bad for scum. Meanwhile, framing someone else with your NK's puts

them

in the spotlight, taking pressure off of you. It's especially effective if you don't draw attention to it, and see if someone else connects the dots to the person you're framing, although you can pull it out yourself to get the final miselim too. Basically, as scum, you don't want to be feeding townies lines that give them better odds of catching scum than elim'ing purely randomly, and playing often leads to that.

3) Let's say I am scum, and I am using my NK defensively. I'd rather kill 72 than Frogster: 72 also announced suspicion of me, and while Frogster FoS'd me Day 2, I seem to recall that he liked me Day 1. Not sure on that. Either way, 72 seems to have more of a proclivity towards tunneling on scum targets, and I was his sole scumread at that point. His initial suspicion of shelly was long and aggressive, and after the counterclaim nonsense he continued to think that Plus was scum. I think it's pretty clear that 72 and shelly can't have been scummates, so I definitely would have killed him night 2 if I hadn't on night 1.

I actually still think that the Sirius/shelly scumteam is a bit more plausible than the Noraa/shelly scumteam. I'm mostly just trying to get discussion rolling, and people tend to start replying when you vote for them. To that end,

VOTE: Sirius9121

What do you think about all this, huh?

This whole thing was low-key confusing to me. I have a hard time understanding where I fall into all this. I should prolly read it again and try to understand but dude nah right after this calc hw, I'm not feeling it. Can u like make it more obvious where I come into all this?

Mostly, I was defending myself. Didn't spend much time accusing you of anything. See the above post for the main reason that I'm sus of you.

[Mundivore]

I give up and if town loses, all I have to say is : y'all deserve it for mislimming thrice(plus, shelly, and whoever y'all lynch tmrw)

I mean, yeah, we would deserve it. Mislimming thrice is the only way that Town can lose, and the only way that scum can win.

Also, I agree with the logic that 72 is a lot more likely to be the scum than Sirius is. Sirius' voting was a bit fish Day1, but I can't see any scum taking a 50/50 of putting all their eggs in one basket. I feel like we deserve to lose to Scum!Sirius if he made such a ballsy move. Or if scum successfully read that I was tracker Day 1 (I made some slip-ups that I was worried gave me away).

Of course, if scum had read that I was tracker, they probably would have killed me, yeah? So I can get behind the 72 kill in general.

[Mundivore]

Well played everyone! GGs!

Noraa, you did really well for your first game. You walked the line really well between getting scum's goals fulfilled and playing the total noobie for AtE. I was actually willing to switch the lim to 72 for a moment at the end, there. The only thing you were doing that was making me suspicious was your sudden flashes of canniness—'breaking character' as it were.

Shelly, I spent a lot of time flaming your aggressive gameplan, but if you actually had been the Goon (rather than rolecop) and you had waited for like, one mislim? Honestly came out of left field. So out of left field that I was willing to hammer Plus

twice

over it... I need to keep aggressive play like that in mind for my future games.

Red, you were fun and a pretty fine townie, but you spent a lot more time justifying your kill on shelly than you had to. She was obvscum, and your plays on Day 2 (including especially that) made me sus enough of you that I tracked you rather than Noraa, who was my first guess. I kinda wanted to track Noraa every night, I should have gone with my gut on that one... I think that if I were VT, there was a decent chance we lost this game? Depends on who our alternate tracker was and how they played. So really, total counterfactual.

also great game-winning tracking and claiming by Mundivore! And great YOLOing by Sirius!

I have some questions.

@Noraa - did you not want to vote for PLUS/Shelly one day one because you didn't want to lim scum (goes against win condition) and you didn't want to lim town (because it doesn't get you town cred)?
@Mundivore, can you talk me through your voting motivations on day one?
@Sirius, can you talk me through your voting motivations on day one?

I'm excited to see the scum PT after Noraa releases

Day 1, I just thought there was no chance in hell that scum would make that bold of a play. Even though I was quite nearly convinced to switch to shelly, I thought there was no way scum!shelly would go that aggro. Shows what I know.

Also, I was still in a bit of a mindset from some previous mafia games I played with slightly different rules. The group I played with for a while didn't reveal the roles of NKs, which meant that skipping a vote was

much worse

than a mislim rather than only slightly worse on average like it is in this ruleset. So to me, it was

super

important that we got that elim, and we were running out of time, and I wasn't really thinking about the nature of TFN as a self-clearing role when I was heavily pushing b/c I was sleepy... I was worried we'd have a situation where we didn't get an elim and then were

still

fighting between shelly and Plus Day 2. A bit of a misplay to be so aggro on my part, but making myself look really scummy panned out quite well for me in the end, scum didn't really consider NK'ing me and wasted a lot of energy into trying to frame me. A fortunate misplay, I suppose?

[Mundivore]

im sad i got myself elimed as a pr but it's whatever

You still helped us kill scum! Getting one scum kill out of a PR is about the value town hopes to get, especially out of a weak PR like TFN. You would have died N1 even if we did figure out Shelly's weird play... but trading 1-for-1 with scum is v v v worth as TFN.

[Mundivore]

Like if town kills one scum with each PR then usually that's enough for town to win.

[Mundivore]

I think 72 would have hammered you, too. Pretty much all of town knew how the game was set up.