Mini Theme 2161: Undertale C Open - Chara's Folly

[catboi]

ﾉ◕ヮ◕)ﾉ:･ﾟ KAWAII WAVE!!:„ø¤º°¨ ¨°º¤KEEP THE KAWAII GOING ¸„ø¤º°¨ ¨°º¤øº LETS GO KAWAII !¤¤º°¨¨°º¤øº¤ø„¸¸ø¤º°¨„ ø¤º°¨¨°ºL-E-T-S GO!„ø¤º°¨ ¨°º¤LET'S GO KAWAII !¸„ø¤º°¨¨°º¤øºL-E-T-S GO!¤¤º°¨ ¨°¤øº¤ø„¸¸ø¤º°¨LET'S GO KAWAII :„ø¤º°¨¨°º¤KEEP THE WAVE GOING •ᴥ•¸„ø¤º

HURT: Prism

[catboi]

first.
HEAL: Chara

what could POSSIBLY go wrong?

༼ つ ◕_◕ ༽つ HEAL: Chara

[catboi]

I really don't want to punch EVs but if no one else will I'll do it later. Probably going to push for 4 spare again.

Wave acknowledged. I'm tired and will be in tomorrow.

the custom tags are neato.

Sorry to break the fun but
i read the setup going in. Somehow I was very confident. I am no longer confident.
Is the purpose of fighting only for info? Is 0 or 4 spares the ideal??

I have thoughts but don't want to out just yet

[catboi]

i also Have Thoughs, we should do genocide.

hi!! they say you can't lynch a puppy, but can you Fight a puppy?

(　´_ﾉ` ) Well yes, genocide route is obviously superior and pacifism sucks eggs in this version of the setup, I was just hoping we might get more info by not immediately settling on a path and seeing who people wanted to spare

[catboi]

HURT: Puppy

[catboi]

(￣▽￣)ノ 0 spares is better EXCEPT for the specific instance we reach 5p with 2 mafia alive, at which point sparing someone gives 2 reveals and a guaranteed 33% chance of town winning (whereas normally in that situation it would be 2/5*1/2 = 20%)

I could post the math if anyone demands I show my work (I ran the numbers pregame and am very grateful to have rolled town here) but really just want to move on from this as fast as possible~

[catboi]

yeah, that's what i was thinking, but haven't ran the numbers because lazy.

wanna talk to me about your vote on puppy?

o(^・x・^)o Didn't like the immediate townread on you for a post that looked null to me and the big pile of questions looked like posturing

[catboi]

HURT: Hectic

Deliberately deceptive.

[catboi]

Alright well my numbers differ from Hectic's (31% town win for 4 spare) but I still don't think it's optimal and I'm tired of typing a line of 50 fractions into Google that are probably wrong (45%+ w/r for four eliminations is almost certainly wrong) so I'm throwing my computer out the window and calling it a day for now.

someone call me when RVS is over I haven't played that phase in years

HURT: catboi deliberately misleading line is assigning intent that I don't really think is there

No, that's right, it's 31% EV, literally worse than the EV you'd have if we mis-executed 3 times in a row. It's pre-emptively shooting yourself in the foot. Genocide route EV is 47%, and it goes higher if you factor in the ability to spare in a 3v2 endgame scenario, above 50%

I was going to do a fancy table showing all the math but that would take way too much time so instead I'm just gonna post from my excel sheet, feel free to check my work

Pacifism Route:

Genocide Route:

(you might have to open the images in a new tab - forum is resizing them so they're harder to read

arguments about finding town being easier than finding scum are mostly fallacious arguments to probabilty, people just guess town more accurately because most people are town, and this willfully ignores the fact that scum are going to kill people off and you have to be near-perfect in your townreads to win via pacifism. arguments about chara associatives feel willfully disingenuous (you get the same associatives from a day 1 elimination without risk of an instant loss - scum don't want to bus chara)

[catboi]

｜。｀＞Д＜｜ Playing pro-scum isn't my idea of fun.

[catboi]

townhunting is powerful, better than scumhunting imo, but we can townhunt inside the fight framework too. even if it's not as fun as doing somtehing different by sparing ( )

I shouldn't townread someone just for a strategy post but this makes me want to

[catboi]

All I got is: The quick estimate Pooky gave I do no give out town points for (regardless ty for your contribution) and the ones who went the extra mile (catboi, Prism). Maf wouldn't fuckin bother, or think to, anyway. Esp. with how "focusing on game mechanics" is looked at.

（ΦωΦ）For the record, I ran those numbers pregame and you should absolutely not townread effort in that vein, but the difference in EV is so significant that I wouldn't have bothered outing it as mafia because I'd be torpedoing my own team's chances

[catboi]

7 pages in and that's your reasoning for a vote?

[catboi]

o(〃＾▽＾〃)o It's ok Lavender, just help me find the bad guys

[catboi]

you've been all "we must fight" "fighting is the only path" and now you're asking about spares

Yes

so your tune has changed....

No

Lmfao

[catboi]

Also correct me if I'm wrong but was there not a conclusion that taking the neutral route is the least useful @taylorswift

I'm going to reiterate @everyone is neutral route (combined spare/fight)

not the worst possible route?

Don't want to drag this down too much further, but there is one, very specific case in which neutral is better, as I think I've said: if you get to 5p with 2 mafia still alive, you can spare someone, whoever you want (preferably your strongest read), and you get 2 free investigations, guaranteed, and town has a 1/3 shot of winning the game which isn't bad.

catboi I don't really scumread you and will probably move my vote soon, I think you can guess at my opinion of some of the last 2/3 pages but we should circle back later imo

໒( ͡ᵔ ▾ ͡ᵔ )७ Sure thing, buddy.

i just kind of like that "trust in the heart of the cards" "i assert i am obvtown" vibe. maybe that's kind of weak? i like that he's voting to self-heal (im doing that too, i think it's the obvious play but scum wouldn't be bold enough to do) but i guess i also want to see if he has anyone he wants to spare now that i think about it

I think he's entirely capable of that as scum and is willing to adapt to a game environment if necessary.

each day only one contestant "nominates" themselves to be judged by the collective town - placing his fate in the hands of his peers.

He shall write a long post detailing why he is worthy of being spared and healed.

Then all players will vote on this person's candidacy - either heal or hurt and the day will end with his healing or hurting.

so only those of us with the most pure of hearts should try this

Are we supposed to reward people for their ability to write posts towncasing themselves? ｢(ﾟ<ﾟ)ﾞ??

[catboi]

nah but im mostly skimming the mech talk. im here to play mafia, and when you all are ready to do that let me know. unfortunately im not gonna be able to force myself to care about mech talk when its this mathematical. if the mechanics are simple and qualitative discussions are possible im here. but if you all wanna crunch numbers ill pass. i do enough number crunching outside this game already.

චᆽච Okay, lemme ask: how do you plan to get reads? what do you expect your process to be for playing mafia this game?

[catboi]

@Elements:

In your last Undertale setup game, as town you came out arguing hard against people wanting to go a pacifism route and argued about the downsides it had with regard to the lack of flips from voting. What's different now?

[catboi]

I'm not good with Day 1s ah~
In the End We're Doing 1-3 Spares it Seems? (*o*)?

.( ̵˃﹏˂̵ ) Are you a baddie this game, Lavender?

[catboi]

Nifty hat. Well, don't mind me, just going to be opportunist scum parking on you knowing you won't really respond for three days.

Meh, the mopiness is

annoying

but I don't know that it's

scummy

and now that I take off the rage-goggles, even though we disagree on our approaches he seems to be making attempts to legitimately evaluate people

@Elements:

In your last Undertale setup game, as town you came out arguing hard against people wanting to go a pacifism route and argued about the downsides it had with regard to the lack of flips from voting. What's different now?

The vast majority of posts have just been about sparing. Only the one saying me, hectic, and pooky should be spared was pacifism indicative.
I also like to think I have matured as a player since then and my play style has changed. But that's self meta so feel free to ignore it

Ah, I misunderstood you. Still seems rather cavalier to have just casually suggested sparing 3 people so early on.

i didn't think i'd ever have the urge to vig 1/3rd of the players in a given game, but it's actually happened.

Well, 25% of the players in the game right now are scum, but it's probably not all the non-contributors. It's never that easy...usually.


m(*- -*)m Still haven't had time to put in a proper reading of the game, apologies. Hope to get to that soon~

[catboi]

Meh, the mopiness is annoying but I don't know that it's scummy and now that I take off the rage-goggles, even though we disagree on our approaches he seems to be making attempts to legitimately evaluate people

I just disagreed vehemently with the things you were arguing, is all. I'm over it now, though.

[catboi]

what if... the scumteam was... exactly taylor/lavender/pooky .. aha ha, just kidding.. unless.. ?

pooky and lavender have decent chance, taylor being standoffish in an antagonistic way is mayyybe town? lavender probably doesn't know how to fake it and pooky is riding the spare thing way too hard

[catboi]

catboi's reads and general approach haven't really been angling for anything here, and he's really taking his time and letting things play out.

I hate that he's likely to be town, just not really the approach he should take for this game as scum imo. Only thing I didn't like was the early Hectic "deliberate" accusation, and that's really plausible for towncat too

Er, what's the approach I "should" take?

[catboi]

catboi's reads and general approach haven't really been angling for anything here, and he's really taking his time and letting things play out.

I hate that he's likely to be town, just not really the approach he should take for this game as scum imo. Only thing I didn't like was the early Hectic "deliberate" accusation, and that's really plausible for towncat too

Er, what's the approach I "should" take?

It depends a bit on who your partners would be but my instinct is that continuing to play things in the backseat/letting people develop without too many nudges from you will lead to a loss, the only one that's probably best to steer clear of would be my push on Hectic. If me/Chara are both town, letting us continue to be the strongest voices would be a disaster waiting to happen. I think a good counterpoint, briefly stated, would be that I don't actually have scum meta on you. It's very strange to know you extremely well in some ways and have complete gaps in others.

I thought you were calling me out for slacking on this game and I liked that but the more I read this the more I got weirded out and confused. Like, the idea I couldn't be lazy and unmotivated as mafia is...puzzling. This read on me doesn't make a lot of sense. (*´ω｀*)

catboi, I'm not seeing these "attempts to legitimately evaluate people" anywhere before you made this post. Could you point me to some examples?

190 shows him making some kind of reads. the logic on prism is fairly iffy, though. 302 is a read of some kind. 311 pressuring pooky is reasonable? like I had been thinking similarly, he just said it before me. 316 as the explanation for the vote-flip makes sense? little moment of indecisiveness that is maybe townie. Yeah, I kind of crapped out that read, it's not as strong as I thought but it at least shows an attempt?

Now that I can give the game my attention, gonna stay up trying to eval until I end up falling asleep, let's see how it goes~

[catboi]

190 shows him making some kind of reads. the logic on prism is fairly iffy, though. 302 is a read of some kind. 311 pressuring pooky is reasonable? like I had been thinking similarly, he just said it before me. 316 as the explanation for the vote-flip makes sense? little moment of indecisiveness that is maybe townie. Yeah, I kind of crapped out that read, it's not as strong as I thought but it at least shows an attempt?

too sloppy to remember to include post links, edit by way of post

[catboi]

(^-x-^*) so, reviewing the thread, starting from the shortest ISO because I am lazy:

Lavender:

already said I think there's a chance she could just be scum who doesn't know how to fake it. I actually really dislike the tone of 373. However, I feel as though she'd be a waste of a vote today. evaluate on day 2.

Tayl0r Swift:

the sequence from 71 and 79 to 172 bothers me, actually, now that I look at it - the turn from casual mechanics talk and "hey guys spare me" to complaining when things turned to serious strategy talk feels a little like someone who was trying to skate by but got turned off once they realized things weren't going to be so easy. Tone in later posts is oppositional which is maybe slightly town but that early sequence is kind of offputting

Morning Tweet:

More surprisingly mech-heavy start that I'd remembered. 179 suggests "surely at least one scum bothers [talking mechanics]" but I'm not sure she goes anywhere with this idea. 181 is an awkward response to taylor. Not sure I like the vote on elements in 230. Reads are just kind of tilted toward the more serious-ish players which is maybe a little surfacey? but I guess I could understand the inclination. Hard to get a handle here.

Tanner:

226 is a pretty good post. His annoyance at inactivity is townish. I'd say I lean town on him but want to see more.

Elements:

Did you know Elements has 33 posts in this game? I was surprised. hard to glean much of anything from them. I actually kind of like 97? It's a strategy post so I should maybe fade it a little because it could be made by someone of either alignment, but it looks like an honest evaluation where he looks at fighting and doesn't see the upside given the similarity of outcomes (it's incorrect, though - if you fight chara the game becomes 7v2 white flag which is incredibly good chances for town.)


Probably going to fall asleep soon but my gut-level take is that I was having a hard time getting a sense for redtea from his early posts, but his more recent posts look very town and are very much reminding me of our recent town game together so that is a very good sign (also in that game he was suspected early for being awkward/fillery before becoming more town, so hey, consistency)

[catboi]

A better way to state my stance is this: I'm fine townleaning catboi because I think the way he's playing is a losing game if he's scum, and totally fine if he's town.

f a i r

[catboi]

Kinda don't want to fully catch up or look at MT's reads until I'm finished on my own to not taint my own assessment.

redtea:

I like the point he makes in 183 about mafia leaving mech discussions open-ended. Does it actually say anything about his alignment? Maybe not. Misunderstands Hectic in 266 but I think the way he's trying to correct a point he thinks Hectic made doesn't feel malicious. Idk if that makes any sense. I do like that he questioned me on Hectic in 382 rather than just letting that sit. 384 just reminds me a ton of our last game, where he was arguing a counter to LHF pushes, and is just laying out an analysis here the feels very sound? I'm not even sure that I suspect hectic, I just like the way redtea is making his points here. Also 398 made me laugh.

puppy:

39 actually kind of pinged me hard when he made it? Just this big pile of setup questions out in the open to start things off, that triggered my gut along with the early snap townread of Tanner in 48 for a post I didn't feel was particularly telling. Tone of 62 actually kind of funny/good, though? Light assessment. I don't really like 139 though. The comment of "good vibes" from pooky just is way weird and I don't care for him asserting he's town this way. Main suspicion just sheeping onto Chara's Elements vote in 155/161 besides that doesn't have much else. Response to Hectic's questioning in 213 reads a tad overdefensive? Really very buddy-buddy in 234. I definitely do not townread CLAP. In fact the ISO mostly recharged my early gut-level suspicion.

pooky:

Fuck if I know. 387 bothers me a little because, like, if hectic is good as scum how does following the spare route actually help? His whole game here of just trying to push toward the spare route while offering nothing else is certainly suspect.

Prism and Chara are probably going to be harder to read. Should try to reassess hectic as well although he hasn't said much new since I last read him Have kind of, thoughts on how I want to proceed but want to try to get a big-picture view of the game in which is something I haven't done in a loooong time

[catboi]

Prism:

Hectic callout in 221 makes sense, not sure the townread of Prism made a lot of sense, although the vote on him in 284 is...weird? Like he says he's not feeling up to playing and that earns a scumread? Aggression in 289 feels a little unnatural but eh. Evaluation of Chara in 296 is not something I'm sure I understand, but feels like real thoughts. Maybe. 320 over the read makes sense, and I really like 327, just the contrasting of a post from a past game with this one.

re: 341 "Is [Hectic] playing it so safe because he's uncomfortable as scum and struggling to start the game off on the right foot?" doesn't seem to fit with Hectic as scum? At least from the word of other people in this game. But the bit about expecting better reads is fair.

Read on me in 371 still kinda weird to me, the "I hate that he's likely to be town" is an odd thing to say.

Overall summary is that while I can see where Prism's aggro-tunnel on Hectic is coming from, and it looks townish? I think it's well within his range as scum? He's had a fairly narrow focus this game as well which makes me concerned. I want him to be town though. Hopefully he'll give me reason to put him there soon.

Chara:

long ISO where I find a lot less to read off than I'd hoped? I'm severely bad at trusting people this game. The point on elements in 160

is

, at least, a good sort of observation even if I don't think I liked the way puppy latched onto it. 297 is kind of skeevy in tone? I agree with elements on that one. After that, I..don't know? It find myself a bit muddled as to where their thoughts lie and didn't find any posts that screamed out to me as a good take or being really townie? I swear to god I'm not just being lazy, I'm just kind of ??? on Chara

Now to actually catchup on everything since my

last

catchup

[catboi]

puppy:

39 actually kind of pinged me hard when he made it? Just this big pile of setup questions out in the open to start things off, that triggered my gut along with the early snap townread of Tanner in 48 for a post I didn't feel was particularly telling. Tone of 62 actually kind of funny/good, though? Light assessment. I don't really like 139 though. The comment of "good vibes" from pooky just is way weird and I don't care for him asserting he's town this way. Main suspicion just sheeping onto Chara's Elements vote in 155/161 besides that doesn't have much else. Response to Hectic's questioning in 213 reads a tad overdefensive? Really very buddy-buddy in 234. I definitely do not townread CLAP. In fact the ISO mostly recharged my early gut-level suspicion.

but i did read this! it's always fun to read gossip about yourself. fyi my elements vote is semi-serious now, it's more than sheeping chara (actually i think she made the point first and technically i voted first?) anyways, i think i have a decent reason for voting elements if you want to hear it (you want to hear it don't you squidward)

Sure, hit me.

[catboi]

Reading MT's notes and already Lol I'm like way on the opposite end of the fence regarding puppy. But yet...I like what she has going on here? the lack of composition reminds me of how I jot things down without regards to a composed narrative and I think it's got good analysis in there. I would maybe not be as super trusting of some of her townreads as she is, but I like what I see from her and in a game where I'm starved for townreads, I think she's a good one to trust.

[catboi]

Lavender:
already said I think there's a chance she could just be scum who doesn't know how to fake it. I actually really dislike the tone of 373. However, I feel as though she'd be a waste of a vote today. evaluate on day 2.

why would she be a waste of a vote on day one? do you think it's gonna get *easier* to evaluate a nothing slot on day two?

have a theory that she might open up some if she's town or at least give us more to work with if not.

[catboi]

Effort for me is NAI, bordering on slightly scummy. I have made a giant reads note post at least one time as scum in both my scum games this year, whereas I do it maybe 1/2 - 2/3rds the time as town. sometimes as town i just say fuck it and follow my heart without doing heavy backtrack reading

I have heard of the fabled scum notedump from you, but I noticed in the example I could find those notes were heavy on the play-by-play but here your notes trend mostly toward analysis.

pooky:
Fuck if I know. 387 bothers me a little because, like, if hectic is good as scum how does following the spare route actually help? His whole game here of just trying to push toward the spare route while offering nothing else is certainly suspect.

A) when we are scum-hunting - we must hunt down all the scum to win.

B) If we r going for 4 spare-win, we r trying to hit 4 townies with spares.

In one scenario (A) if hectic is scum and we fail to deal with him - we lose.

in scenario (B) if hectic is scum but we hit 4 town-spares -it won't matter that hectic is scum.

Why are you assuming he wouldn't get spared, though? This doesn't follow at all unless you'd have a large number of players you're more confident a town than hectic and I don't feel that impression here.

[catboi]

In all seriousness, hadn't decided on who I actually wanted to vote.

The more I think about it, the more I think I'm with you on pooky.

HURT: PookyTheMagicalBear

[catboi]

also i was thinking about spares again. i forgot why we gave up on them. i know it's unlikely that we'll spare correctly 4 times in a row, but is the 4 spare ending really that bad? say there's one scum in finale, wouldn't that be pretty good odds with strong town players? or would paranoia + no flips be too much to overcome?

The 4 spare ending is pretty bad if you miss once, yeah? What you're missing is that town then has to select

another

person to be spared of the remaining 4, not pick the lone mafia among them, and then if they get that right, take a blind guess at the mafia among 4 people. 1 in 4 is really hard! by comparison on the fight route you can get a 1/2, 1/3 endgame at worst. But there's also another factor.

I guess the best way to explain this is, to win the spare route outright, you technically need to correctly townread 7 players (4 spares + the three mafia NKs). Technically, to win the fight route, you need to do the same - you have 5 eliminations, tops, so that leaves 7 people you can't eliminate. BUT with the fight route, you get the benefit of flips immediately that you can draw conclusions from, including chara if we end up missing on day 1. It also creates an endgame scenario where it's virtually impossible to deepwolf.

I've never been one to townblock, and I don't think I can win the game on day 1 by identifying 7 townies, but I'd like to try to assemble something, maybe get 5 people. If it's bad we'll probably learn right away from the chara flip.

[catboi]

re: lavender's 431:
am i the only one who sees just how many things are wrong with this post?
~ while i know i didn't make it explicit, i think i've made it pretty clear so far that i'm begging certain people to talk about dayplay-related things, and the fact that lavender answers my question going "oh most of the pages so far are mech" is just?? not to mention that that's blatantly false, since there had been plenty of non-mech discussion so far?
~ the next line is again, a non-stance on pooky, and calling the 4 spare route fun?? (while in the last paragraph they wrote how they think they have a better understand of the game because of the mech talk?)
~ when asked who'd they fight if they had to, they chose taylor, because mech-talk is apparently not nothing in their opinion, but in the next line they hurt the backup-mod?

No, you're right, I didn't like her "ask me questions so I have something to talk about" and the more I read that post, the more I hate it. That first paragraph is such a non-statement, and the comment on taylor at the end is really bad, that looks like a really manufactured fos, like, dislikes mechanics talk = must not be townie? it looks like a read from someone who doesn't know how to fake it, yeah.

[catboi]

Okay I'm proposing an alliance between me, Tanner, Morning Tweet, and redtea. Just need to find one more person there I'm comfy with.

[catboi]

is this theory based on experience...?

No, I just had a little observation of her games and had a really crackpot theory of "she's probably not chara so leave her be for now", not that exclusively chara hunting is a smart thing to do, just that I don't need to worry about her poofing the game with no content. I also felt like if she is town, mis-eliminating her would get us basically nothing. That post you just mentioned was scummy enough that I'm no longer concerned with that and would happily vote her today, as much as it would pain me to do so ( ◞᷄દ◟᷅ )

oh hey look a serious wagon for once?
HURT: pooky

IYO, does this look like coalition pooky? Because it feels like a similar approach.

[catboi]

Prism, if you care for it, Your Nightmare just concluded. Hectic won this as scum. i caught him day 1 but wasn't confident enough to get him eliminated and then got killed.
it'll certainly effect my own approach this game, and as it's fairly short i thought i'd mention it to you.

(●´ω｀●)ゞ Have to ask: what do

you

think of him this game?

IYO, does this look like coalition pooky? Because it feels like a similar approach.

i don't know, actually? wasn't he like... giving reads and trying to be townread in coalition? how does it feel like a similar approach?

and to make it clear, i'm not saying "he's not trying to be townread" = "town"

Just, the overall chummy hey guys let's have fun and pick the town attitude, the lack of real

serious

commentary or attempting to sort people. Honestly his whole last couple page of posting makes my skin crawl.

i think what I was thinking of was how Pooky points out our odds go up immensely if days 1 and 2 are slamdunk townread winners guaranteed. I guess i can find it somewhat more believable that he believes in his plan, if that makes sense.

I was also going to say I liked his "I always do this every game with mechanics, I always try to break the setup" but on other pass ehh maybe not as much i dont think its AI

You know the funny thing though? We fight mafia on day 1, our odds also drastically go up, to the point it's not even worth comparing. I want to get this thing in the bag as early as possible.

okay catboi how did I get in here and not Prism. That isn't a thing that happens.
For real though, did you like, forget them?

I'll go ahead and make it clear here that my reads of that list is [town, neutral, town-lean]. Not trying to kick Tanner out or anything; for all Intents and Purposes I may as well consider him an ally, as I wouldn't fight him today and he doesn't seem to have the formidable-scary-maf reputation Chara does.

(.=^・ェ・^=) You feel like an easier read than Prism. I have one recent forum game with you, you feel similar this game and you haven't rolled scum in a long time. Prism I do not have recent forum game experience with, only a handful of chat games, and I think he's capable of strong scum play. The bar for him to clear for being a strong townread is higher than it is for you. He's not quite there yet.

[catboi]

also want to hear more from cat about Hectic who I still scumread

This is pending an answer from Chara with regard to the question I asked about Hectic, sorry. I understand your misgivings, though.

[catboi]

]
Sure, hit me.

Okay!

It started with Chara's observation in 160 that elements is talking about sparing, but isn't really looking for spares. Like, he still isn't, btw, he's just sort of moved on since everyone is over sparing. But where's the passion, does he look like he's trying to town hunt at all?

Ok that was old stuff but then there's my argument (?) With him around 196. He sort of decides that my asking about spares is scummy. Uh...? He doesn't posit why this is scummy, he just asserts that I'm "changing my tune" and after a respectable distance he parks his vote on me (and hasn't done anything with it?)

Maybe this is weak but it's only D1 and I'm fine with this read and would wagon him for it

He had an issue with you agreeing that fighting today was correct but then humoring hectic about who he would spare, I believe. I don't terribly want to answer for him but if that's what he was saying I see why he said it. Definitely disengaged but I suspect he's a strange player in terms of playstyle?

Hectic - Town
Elements - Town
Chara - null
Prism - town
PookyTheMagicalBear - chara
catboi - town
Morning Tweet - town
Tayl0r Swift - eh
Lavender - who?
redtea - eh
Tanner - scum
CantLynchAPuppy - scum

I am amused and delighted that your scumreads are primarily the people who suspect you.

[catboi]

I just saw your review of me, I was already thinking I'd vote Hectic in 221, but I didn't want to put Hectic on guard before he answered my question. A couple of answers that I really didn't like later and it was time to ramp up the pressure/step on his neck if he's scum, no longer any reason to hold off.

I respect the process.

[catboi]

I bet Chara and Tanner and prolly several ppl have made that point every 5 seconds but here I am rehashing it in the vain hopes it makes it clear to Pooky that we're taking the game on the path to murder and destruction and he needs to hop on board for now whether he agrees with it or not

alright if you want my super spicy guess on who the scum-team is.

I'd have to say:

Spoiler: Don't Click This!

Chara - Elements
Goon - Catboi
Goon - Tayl0rSwift

꒰*⑅˃̶͈ ৺˂̶͈⑅꒱੭ु⁾⁾·° This team loses the game literally 100% of the time based on the way I have played today alone, Lmao

one of them should be pooky
one of them should be me
one of them should be hectic

btw this post is why i think elements is chara.

he very conveniently puts himself in the middle of the order - he can't be last because he'd die on D3 - so it's a sneaky middle of the pack insert - he doesn't put himself first because he's a very sneaky chara.

Ah, the 400 post later callout. cunning genius elements suggests he get spared 2nd as chara, brilliant


I see pooky has changed his tune and started spouting BS when he finally faced real pressure, who could have seen that coming? (me)

[catboi]

I would probably not fight puppy today, I find some little things from him slightly townish now~ (=^‥^=)

[catboi]

no, it's a fair question because hectic was talking about sparing but hadn't suggested anyone he'd wanted to spare. it's the same idea chara used to scumread elements that i sheeped onto. (no offense but did you actually read my posts lol)

I guess that's fair. I had kinda taken it more as humoring him in an even-handed way rather than asking him in an attempt to evaluate him but I guess I was wrong! Does it make elements scummy? Idk if he's trying to be cheap or just thinking on a level beyond us.

What I do know is the exchange between you two still make me laugh out loud.

[catboi]

I see pooky has changed his tune and started spouting BS when he finally faced real pressure, who could have seen that coming? (me)

just lol

i flip town, you flip tomm ok?

Sure but you won't~ ω(=＾・＾=)ω

[catboi]

I also didn't want to nip the townreads on us for mech in the bud too early, I really wanted the content/reactions-and I think redtea's validates this-but now I'm fine saying I think we both out the strat here as scum as long as one of us is town

Lol, probably. Although I don't know that I'd go to the extent of arguing that I would.

lol

my style is to ask questions and try to do it in a neutral way, because i like seeing how people respond when you don't cue them exactly how you want them to respond. like, if you warn someone "im probing you" before you probe them you get a different response than if you don't. fyi. i think some people misread me when i do this

also i wanted hectic to elaborate more than he did. i still feel like he shoudl feel townier than he does, so i'm kind of null on the slot. (maybe it's just the posting gimmick? i admit the pictures do get me to at least read what he says)

I recall talking with a friend over your alignment in a game we were spectating. He was extremely confident you were town while you were basically a coinflip to me. I will accept that it is possible your style is just one that is difficult for me to read.

As for Hectic, I feel comfortable enough now to say he has said things I like, as well as some I do not like. I do not have a definite conclusion on him, but I would say my misgivings are relatively minor right now.

[catboi]

I see that pooky made A Post, but I suspect he is just trying to push back and bury me in WIM, which is about in line with my expectation. Still catching up, will respond to his earlier question but I am not going to bog the game down in tedium.

[catboi]

like it's trivial to calculate the pure-probability odds of each path. but we're not playing a game to roll dice - this is a social interaction game.

And how did you attempt to generate social interactions prior to the point I started attacking you?

[catboi]

Not Chara's venge means we do need to eliminate another scum before then, though.

someone asked what my read on Hectic was the last time i checked the thread: it's a hesitant TR. but i believe i can read him better than that.

I had asked you about this. More specifically, it was in reference to the recently completed game you had with him where he was scum and you had read him correctly. You provided a link to the game as a reference but made no comparison between how his play felt in that game vs how his play feels in this one. It struck me as strange not to make a comment that was actually bothering to sort him.

[catboi]

like it's trivial to calculate the pure-probability odds of each path. but we're not playing a game to roll dice - this is a social interaction game.

And how did you attempt to generate social interactions prior to the point I started attacking you?

Can you please state your case against me ?

Largely that there was just no interest from you at all in seriously attempting to sort anyone. It's not the chosen route in the setup but how you approached posting about it. Too tired to do more.

[catboi]

I see pooky has changed his tune and started spouting BS when he finally faced real pressure, who could have seen that coming? (me)

Could you expand on this post?

What exactly did I post that you consider to be "BS"?

Mainly the way that moment I start placing you under actual pressure for the first time in the game, you push back, call me scum, attempt to discredit me, attack elements for listing you as chara in 543544 while engaging in absurd reasoning that he must be chara because he listed himself second, something apparently only worth pointing out 400 posts later. Additionally, you claim right there that "If you take the time to think about how a chara would actually be behaving on D1 if the town is heavy against 4-spare, you'd either see less posting, distancing or some kind of weird in between - it would be nearly suicidal stupid to openly buddy a scum goon to the chara." But then, your "super spicy guess" as to who the scumteam is in 521 was me/taylor/elements, two players I have defended to an extent from other players who suspected them. There's no consistency of thought process here and if you were town I'd expect you to be applying the same reasoning to your own reads.

i mean, define productive. imo getting people onto the highest EV path is productive. getting everyone to start talking reads is productive, because i will have a very hard time caring about this game if there's 3 people ~doing nothing~. am i succeeding in what i'm doing? debateable.

you know it probably would've been way easier to get AI-reads on the scum team if we had at least pretended to be down with the 4-spare strategy for a few days to give the incentive for scum to try to get a chara-spare win rather than just being like hell no there's no way we r giving chara a chance to win early.

And then, in this post here you talk about drawing out from people who they want to spare, but it's not like you talked about it in any meaningful way of trying to get those reads from people - you engaged in the whole buddy-buddy good times love in our hearts posting style I've already talked about, avoided trying to rustle anyone, and proposed a silly speech-giving game rather than acting in a way that would get anyone to do anything meaningfully alignment indicative.

For the record, I had considered drawing things out at the start of the game in this fashion, but the moment the discussion turned to strategy of what to do, I had to move to immediately kill it under the weight of my excel spreadsheet and stop the discussion. Prolonged strategic discussions are an incredibly pro-scum environment, because they can contribute and share their honest opinion without doing anything revealing of their alignment. Everything everyone says is essentially null. There is no scumhunting that goes on in a lengthy discussion about strategy, but people can argue for pages and pages while killing any ability to get reads. It went longer in this game than I'd like, even, but I think ultimately I was successful in moving the game past discussions of how to play the setup, to discussions of how the game as constituted by the current playerlist. I think that's undeniably protown.

[catboi]

Deadline closer than I thought, trying to get on track, have a read I've been sitting on that I want to get out. Might do a ~readlist~, something I haven't done in ages. ˚✧₊⁎( ˘ω˘ )⁎⁺˳✧༚

[catboi]

That's great. He also knows you're town 100% of the time as mafia.

I have seen literally zero redeeming play of his in my eyes. This is in stark contrast to the last two games I played with him, where in the first he was a universal townread who played very crisply, and the second was a universal TR who I took specific steps to mislead as scum, and I decided to shoot him since the chance of him getting voted was zero.

Reads are bad. Pushes are bad. Tone is bad. Progression is bad. Like ???

I will admit that every time he outs a reason for townreading someone this game, it makes my skin absolutely crawl. That, without a doubt, is the thing that bothers me the most from him. However, I am not sure he would play in a way that draws attention to himself so strongly by knowingly going against the grain now? He has also done a tell I consider to be slightly town indicative. It's not something I want to get into too deep, though. ( ^..^)ﾉ

[catboi]

, attack elements for listing you as chara in 543544 while engaging in absurd reasoning that he must be chara because he listed himself second, something apparently only worth pointing out 400 posts later.

I put elements as chara b4 he put me as chara so your chain of causality is wrong on the observable facts alone.

My error, that's what I get for reading backwards, I got my timeline confused - Regardless, that is less important than the part where you critique elements's team guess while failing to apply that reasoning to your own reads.

[catboi]

I dunno

he hasn't done enough yet for me to use my soul read yet.

I'm worried he might be avoiding me :>

How is it that he was "avoiding" you when he placed a hurt vote on you and directly questioned you on if you had any reads? (;￢＿￢)

[catboi]

I think that's undeniably protown.

ok you posted a spreadsheet and said we should do this fight thing.

But have you really put much actual effort into sorting my alignment this game? Your vote is on me but what have you done to determine my alignment and how have you done it?

If I put a vote on someone I am saying "This person is suspicious" and drawing attention to them. If I was a bit vague with my initial posts, I don't think it was hard to infer why I felt you were suspect. My vote also got you to stop fucking around and produce actual content, so in that regard I'd consider it a rousing success.

[catboi]

I dunno

he hasn't done enough yet for me to use my soul read yet.

I'm worried he might be avoiding me :>

How is it that he was "avoiding" you when he placed a hurt vote on you and directly questioned you on if you had any reads? (;￢＿￢)

because it felt like a not very serious hurt vote. There was not much substance or additional follow-through.

Me saying "the more I think about it, the more I think I'm with you" comes off pretty serious, I thought. But, whatever. I definitely did not communicate clearly at that point in time. If I step outside of my own head for a minute, I think I can see why someone would be bothered by the way I worded that vote post.

Let's make a deal: I still do not trust you. However, I do not think the town is going to want to FIGHT either of us today. I've other reads I'm more interested on elaborating on at this point in time. In order to avoid drowning the thread in an endless back and forth that no one actually wants to read, I am proposing a truce where we stop arguing with each other for now. Deal?

[catboi]

my Spicy Hot Take(tm) of the night is that lavender (confidering how difficult they seem to be to wagon) is chara who's trying to leave out the fewest associates possible for after they flip. this may or may not be the sleep deprevation mixed with unhealthy tunnelling speaking. i'll decide in the morning.
HURT: lavender

This is definitely looking plausible at this point in time. I would be perfectly willing to fight Lavender at this point in time. I would say she is the player in this game I suspect the second most. (the first I will be explaining shortly).

[catboi]

Me saying "the more I think about it, the more I think I'm with you" comes off pretty serious, I thought. But, whatever. I definitely did not communicate clearly at that point in time. If I step outside of my own head for a minute, I think I can see why someone would be bothered by the way I worded that vote post.

yes, and I thought it was pretty strange you took his vote that seriously - I'd love to know why you thought it was a good idea - I'm trying to see your thought process because I want to figure out if you are coming at me because you actually suspect me or if you are scum trying to push a ML.

That's why I am asking you for "why" you believed that post made a good case for Pooky being scum.

I actually suspected you, yes. I felt as though you were deliberately avoiding engagement with the thread, and hectic called you out on not having a single read. I felt like the gimmickry was a front, that if you played the part of the goofy fun man people would just wind up drawn to other targets and ignoring you because "why would he do that as scum?". You showed no sign of seriously sorting anyone's alignment, and at that point in time, that was good enough for my day 1 vote.

(the past few days I have been unable to respond properly because I've been busy IRL and haven't been able to properly catch up to the thread which is why I've not really been able to respond to you directly).

[catboi]

lol

my style is to ask questions and try to do it in a neutral way, because i like seeing how people respond when you don't cue them exactly how you want them to respond. like, if you warn someone "im probing you" before you probe them you get a different response than if you don't. fyi. i think some people misread me when i do this

also i wanted hectic to elaborate more than he did. i still feel like he shoudl feel townier than he does, so i'm kind of null on the slot. (maybe it's just the posting gimmick? i admit the pictures do get me to at least read what he says)

I recall talking with a friend over your alignment in a game we were spectating. He was extremely confident you were town while you were basically a coinflip to me. I will accept that it is possible your style is just one that is difficult for me to read.

As for Hectic, I feel comfortable enough now to say he has said things I like, as well as some I do not like. I do not have a definite conclusion on him, but I would say my misgivings are relatively minor right now.

now i have to know more! you can't tell me that people are gossipping about me and not tell me more. what game was it? why did you not think i was town? do i have my own fanclub? im actually pretty pleased with my games on this account so far, ive made it to endgame in all of them and won all my town games. (There was one scum game but i dont really count that because i subbed into a scumteam where i was the only scum left, which makes me extra curious to get a sense of how you read me)

Mafia of Revelations, after Day 1- for the record, I ultimately did decide you were town, it was just one of my lowest confidence reads.

[catboi]

anyways, based on what vibes / reads im hearing from people here's my take on what wagons are viable, fwiw:

* pooky
* elements
* * hectic
* taylor

catboi seems to have divided people 50-50 but with more leaning town, same with me i think? (not sure why tbh.) there hasn't been as much wagon development today as im used to with all the spare talk, so the options look a little weird. there's also probably some room to fight someone who hasn't made much of an impression (i might put lavender and prism in this category, though prism has posted enough so maybe i'm making that up? maybe redtea? idk).

also apropos of nothing i want to talk to morning tweet and chara a little more, i had some productive convos with them early on and haven't lately.

Strongly feel that redtea is town and Prism is trending that way as well. (also wouldn't fight Prism day 1 unless he overtly scumslipped and even then I might keep him around for laughs).

[catboi]

2) catboi-are you still scumreading Pooky? I felt he might be overplaying the spare angle at first, he was 2/3 in my scumpool, but after he got more vehement it became more of a coinflip to me. I haven't read his case on you yet. Without really knowing his meta, it seems possible for the heavy hitting out of left field to be a reliable tool in an experienced player's arsenal. But what do you think?

I will admit, I am feeling little pangs of doubt right now. as I said earlier, when I step outside my own headspace, where my motivations are perfectly clear and lucid to me, I can see why he'd be bothered with the way I've said things. Still, I think a tool in his arsenal is to fight back hard and intimidate people, get them to back down. I more or less expected him to flip the switch and get serious when I accused him. I still have a harrd time some of the arguments he is making are genuine thoughts.

[catboi]

Okay, moving on from pooky arguments, hopefully.

Is no one else bothered by how User Chara's recent posts are all information over analysis? 487 503 509 517 520 585 586 590

The closest they come to actual content is an unsupported "hesitant TR" on Hectic, and only because they've been questioned on their read of him. What bugged me about that was the fact they offered a link to a recent scumgame of Hectic's in 380, without drawing any conclusions from it themselves. I would say a lot of User Chara's posting falls into the category of "background noise". This person is my strongest scumread at this point in time.


HURT: Chara

[catboi]

(●´ω｀●)ゞ tayl0r, do you mind explaining why exactly it is that you scumread me?

[catboi]

I know but she had just posted so I was hoping she'd see mine and answer (๑•́‧̫•̀๑)

[catboi]

(๑•̆૩•̆) I am not sure how I feel about that answer.

[catboi]

i dunno! at the time i didnt like that catboi wont lay off pooky. pooky feels like lhf and kinda obvtown. but catboi overall i think is just overeager town.

How is pooky low hanging fruit, and what makes him obvtown?

[catboi]

I'm glad I didn't do a readslist last night because it was likely going to be toppled by the last few pages anyway

[catboi]

hmm i reread the iso and im not sure what i was seeing. its possible that the avatar just set me off? on rereading youre more null-town

i dunno! at the time i didnt like that catboi wont lay off pooky. pooky feels like lhf and kinda obvtown. but catboi overall i think is just overeager town.

feels pretty underwhelming. reads badly

I agree entirely, actually. In particular her backing down from her scumread on me is bothersome - Id have awarded her some credit if she'd stuck to her guns but having thought about it the immediate retreat doesn't suggest a sincere belief.

2) catboi-are you still scumreading Pooky? I felt he might be overplaying the spare angle at first, he was 2/3 in my scumpool, but after he got more vehement it became more of a coinflip to me. I haven't read his case on you yet. Without really knowing his meta, it seems possible for the heavy hitting out of left field to be a reliable tool in an experienced player's arsenal. But what do you think?

I will admit, I am feeling little pangs of doubt right now. as I said earlier, when I step outside my own headspace, where my motivations are perfectly clear and lucid to me, I can see why he'd be bothered with the way I've said things. Still, I think a tool in his arsenal is to fight back hard and intimidate people, get them to back down. I more or less expected him to flip the switch and get serious when I accused him. I still have a harrd time some of the arguments he is making are genuine thoughts.

This is kind of weird to me - if you haven't sorted my slot to a level of conviction you are comfortable with, why break off and continue to throw shade about my thoughts?

If you think something I am saying is untrue or scummy - please call it out so we can address it. I've presented plenty of thoughts on your interaction with me so far this game and why I find it scummy. If you can go back to your mind-frame at that point and show me what I'm missing and why it is a pro-town frame of mind you are approaching me with, that's better for me as well.

I guess I had just not wanted to keep being hyperfocused on you and clogging the thread with a 1v1. Off the top of my head I didn't like you insisting you'd been engaged when a significant portion of of your content in the game was shitposts (sorry that this is not that kind of game). I'll try to go back and explain myself to you if I have time.

Strongly feel that redtea is town

Can you explain this read please? This is one of the players I've been feeling susp of, esp when I called him out and he didn't have an answer - and he still hasn't presented one today.

I said his play here matches up with my recent game experience with him. I was suspicious of him in that game early because his posts were stylistically awkward but in time he revealed himself to be very earnest and I think 594/595 show him really trying to analyze the game. I don't necessarily hold him being stymied by you asking him for an explanation against him.

[catboi]

Lavender is a little bit improved after her wall post because, at least it's something? Taylor stock dropping. Starting to feel differently about pooky, even. Need to read Chara now that they have posted actual content.

[catboi]

Starting to feel differently about pooky, even.

To elaborate somewhat: the way he is interacting with me no longer feels like it is coming across with malign intent. The way he's talking about stuff feels like he's attempting a conversation rather than pushing talking points.

[catboi]

Chara posting actual content makes me like them and being behind at least explains the active lurking. I am back to the drawing board, yet again.

[catboi]

Lavender's wall is really lackluster. Virtually all of my posts are one-two sentences.

My survey of her suggests that is just how she is and not to expect much more, you're just going to have to work with what you get

catboi-you seemed unwilling to respond to the giant Pooky post for fear of tedium. You did directly answer some questions, and seemed to reluctantly draw up a truce, but I'm bothered that you don't seem to have

thought

about that post even if you chose not to really engage with it publicly. It's extremely enlightening imo, and the case can be made for it both ways depending on how harshly you judge the first few sections.

To be blunt, the amount of hoops you've jumped through to apologize for Hectic while still trying to appear sympathetic to me bother me a lot.

#682 is really stretching it. Every read he's given makes your skin crawl. Him taking a public stand as scum is not unexpected considering the last time he played it safe he got completely grilled-and sparing MT knowing it won't happen is playing it safe in its own way. #614

exists

. #392 is its own adventure and was the first time the word "apologist" came to mind. Liking his reads, then rereading them and going eh these are iffy, and most of them making your skin crawl is just a really wack progression to me.

I can see you flipping scum for these interactions

regardless of what Hectic is

which is so bizarre.

My not responding to pooky was, in part, because I disliked prolonged back-and-forths when I am town, as I feel they rarely lead to anything useful, and in part because I was just not able to read the thread properly at the time, which is why my responses to have been honestly somewhat incoherent - I'd see a thing, respond to it, and remember I hadn't read a couple pages before that and have to go back. I'll try to look at it anyway when I get time, but I feel like it shouldn't be a priority right now.

You are probably right with regard to my read on Hectic. The first time I gave a statement on him in 392, it was a lazy read. The second time in 614, I was guarded because I was suspicious of User Chara and how they made that completely neutral post about his recent scumgame and wanted them to answer before I said anything. I wanted to see if they had any conclusions to draw before I have my own. I guess when I made 682 I had figured he was getting more heat for making a spare vote than he actually did. I hindsight I gave him too much credit there. To go into detail: the reasoning for all his townreads has been incredibly shallow, a trend I noticed in common with his recent micro. Still, he was a lot moe proactive in that game, and I had entertained the possibility of him simply having an off game as town rather than being mafia. I had also felt that him pressuring pooky about not having reads was more likely to be town - in general when someone scumreadsuspects the players they are familiar with (after all, they are soul masons), it tends to be more likely to come from town - as mafia most people will just try to keep their friends on their side and not push them, as town they want to be seen as not giving them a free pass. That was what I thought at the time, now he says, no, I didn't really suspect him, I was just voting him to pressure him, and so that tell is suddenly much less valid than I thought it was. Does that make my thinking clear? At the time, he had said something things I consider suspect, but I saw some points in his favor, and there were other targets I wanted to pursue at the time, people that were more straightforwardly scummy to me.

Last night, I was suspicious of User Chara (really thought I had something novel there!), Lavender, and Pooky, and since then they've all given me reasons to doubt myself. I think now Hectic is lower in my estimation (I say, as he makes an interesting post about lavender), and taylor has also taken a step back with her recent posting. Beyond them the picture for me is kind of unclear. I need to check something on redtea with regard to the lack of vote movement.

[catboi]

Feels a bit late imo catboi but I guess you don't work on my schedule. Should also be a clear next place to look based off of what you've said.

What feels late, exactly? Not sure what this is referring to you since I wasn't directly addressing anything you said in my string of posts.

[catboi]

2) catboi-are you still scumreading Pooky? I felt he might be overplaying the spare angle at first, he was 2/3 in my scumpool, but after he got more vehement it became more of a coinflip to me. I haven't read his case on you yet. Without really knowing his meta, it seems possible for the heavy hitting out of left field to be a reliable tool in an experienced player's arsenal. But what do you think?

I will admit, I am feeling little pangs of doubt right now. as I said earlier, when I step outside my own headspace, where my motivations are perfectly clear and lucid to me, I can see why he'd be bothered with the way I've said things. Still, I think a tool in his arsenal is to fight back hard and intimidate people, get them to back down. I more or less expected him to flip the switch and get serious when I accused him. I still have a harrd time some of the arguments he is making are genuine thoughts.

I forgot this post existed while reviewing whoops.

I can kind of see the difficulty here but you seem to have engaged primarily with the easiest thing to me, which is the tinfoil about the wording so ??? idk this truce is lackluster. I also was bothered by you taking credit for getting Pooky to do something even if it's literally true. All of us have tried: it's that you were scummy enough to him to respond to and push on. This really shouldn't be a badge of pride.

I'm not sure anyone else tried particularly hard? Like everyone else would just ask him something or say "well why would he do this as mafia" but in general give him a wide berth, I tried going after him directly.

to be honest, i kind of like Taylor's going from calling Hectic her top scumread to almost completely losing the read when directly asked about it. kind of a mood, kind of feels like she's posting without thinking about it much which is a net +town.

I'm not sure I understand this reasoning at all. Why is not thinking +town rather than showing a lack of legitimate scumhunting process?

[catboi]

Crossfire looks pretty similar to this game even though I'm skeptical of the walllread interpretation. Kind of a shame since skimming through other earlier games they had much stronger townplay (Baseball)

IDK how much stock I put into the scum sample given the calendar year but we have no other record so I mean

Slot definitely has the potential to be a trap vote.

Back to sleep now

pedit: pooky not having malign intent, would have liked to see it in reaction to 610, will read bigger post when I wake up again

Agreed on lavender, her posting style seems to have evolved significantly over that time period so I'm not sure anything conclusive can be drawn from it. I actually note that her reads in the scumgame weren't confident, she had 5 of them as null and the others were "leans", it was a very hedged list. If anything there was a smidge more confidence in her reads list as town, although to be fair the context in gamestate for those lists are very different.

sleep tight BB~ ❣⃛(❛ั◡˜๑)

[catboi]

goddamit now hectic looks town, what am I doing this game

review of redtea shows he moves his vote very little as town, true of his recent game and our older games so I'm not as worried about that.

HURT: Tayl0r Swift

Sometimes the easy vote is the correct one? As I've said her recent posts do not please me at all and the opinions look tossed-off rather than being reinforced by any real thinking, however invisible it is to us.

p-edit:

What I mean by "confidence" is the way she presents the read. There's no umming or erring in her scumgame. If it's a townlean, it's a townlean. If it's a nullread, it's a nullread. In her towngame, she'll be shifting around while explaining the read.

like I said, think this is entirely a stylistic shift rather than an alignment indicative one, as her posting since 2019 has become more, well...bubbly.

[catboi]

HURT: hectic sorry

I still want elements but I'm willing to give that slot a ment to change my mind now that there's been a sub. Hectic is my next best bet. Maybe I need to work on some wcumreads, I mostly have townreads

(,Ծ_Ծ,) Actually, thinking on it, the "sorry" here raises a flag for me.

[catboi]

Hey cat, I really appreciate you tackling all of my questions and giving really thorough answers. Most of them make sense to me, even though the Hectic progression/attitude around Pooky bother me a bit (I was actually biased in the credit thing; me feeling the same way about the gimmick+pushing him for content meant I didn't really think about the fact I never pushed him inthread. Something about this still seems off to me, though.)

You seem to have trended towards me being town. Is there anything you specifically want me to look at/talk to you about?

This game presents a unique challenge for us in a lot of ways. I suspect all of these 4 things are true: 1) Despite nearly identical backgrounds, we think of mafia in very different ways 2) We both expect slightly too much from the other as town 3) Deep down we both think we're the better player 4) We literally have no meta despite 1-3, unless you've already specced some of my games

Not sure there's anything immediate on my mind, unfortunately. Wish there was something that sprang to mind.

1) is likely pretty true. 2) is not necessarily true on my end - I just give anyone I respect a long time before I will comfortably read them as town. It's probably true that your expectations of me are too high, but I also would say I'm playing below what I can do. I've had to commute several times this week and that basically kills my ability to read a game properly and post. 3) Despite my play this game trending toward being individualistic with me trying to find a novel read or angle, I am actually not feeling terribly confident right now and realized I'm probably better off working off others 4) Nah, I haven't seriously spectated any of your games. Probably would prefer to judge just off what's going on in this one, anyway.

It's also curious to me that your mind doesn't immediately turn towards reviewing the stronger scum players when the previous top candidates get nixed in your eyes (Lavender/Hectic)

This was somewhat what I did when I turned my attention to Chara, because it stood out to me that they was getting a pass for their early game and had turned to not really saying much at all and engaging in safe play. When I went away from that again I got a bit lost and haven't fully reassessed.

Chara posting actual content makes me like them and being behind at least explains the active lurking. I am back to the drawing board, yet again.

is it enough just to post content? i can do this much as scum, too.

No, not just that it was content, obviously, but they made reads and evaluations, their analysis seemed

fine

and not overtly scummy, so I couldn't really continue to pressure them for active lurking. Is it possible to hang back as scum and then do the occasional big serious of catchup posts to look town? Absolutely. I can't say it's enshrined them as a town read but it lowered my suspicion for the moment and I'm basically in "wait and see" mode on them.

[catboi]

I'm not sure I understand this reasoning at all. Why is not thinking +town rather than showing a lack of legitimate scumhunting process?

a fair question, kitty. can i call you kitty?

i find scum would be more likely to have some sort of justification in mind when giving a read, and when called on it would say something besides admitting they actually have nothing. that, and scum's tendency to think through their posts more deeply than town.
it does depend on the player, but perhaps i was too quick to remove her from the list of players i wanted to poke.

Sure, nya~ (^人^)

I'm not sure scum would always have justification in mind when faking a read - when someone is really raw, then faking reasoning becomes incredibly difficult. When you do not have an idea of how to scumhunt as town, imitating that process is entirely a bridge too far. And so I see her tossing out occasional opinions, but when she is questioned on them I'm not sure her responses give the impression there is something behind what she says, that there's a backbone to her opinions. I would give credit if I felt there was some degree of earnest conviction to what she said but the fact she immediately walked things back when asked about them seems not great.

[catboi]

I'm not feeling terribly confident either FWIW. Asking myself "Is this

really

town for each of my gutreads has me very disappointed and feeling like I forgot how to play the game entirely.

Actually I didn't really go very indepth on redtea, just very cursory. My previous post elaborated a bit but my read is almost entirely based off of me reading along with SIN. This game is very recent, featured strong townplay from cat that helped seal the game, and had redtea playing okay. Their biggest issue was probably a combination of lack of confidence in their scumreads and paranoia of their townreads.

catboi's "wait and see" approach this game stylistically is very similar to his approach in SIN. I think it's super natural for redtea to townread it (even though I don't), and the increased confidence/proactivity lines up really well with the takeaways from SIN. They also watched me flake without literally posting a single thing in that game as scum.

I actually don't feel I played particularly great that game, I succumbed to a lot of the paranoid conspiracy theorizing that has been my downfall frequently recently and mostly got bailed out by mechanics. My main strength that game was being read as obvtown fairly quickly (which, granted, is not nothing, but I always want to do better), but it would have gone a lot smoother if I'd been more willing to listen to others on their reads.

[catboi]

No, not just that it was content, obviously, but they made reads and evaluations, their analysis seemed fine and not overtly scummy, so I couldn't really continue to pressure them for active lurking. Is it possible to hang back as scum and then do the occasional big serious of catchup posts to look town? Absolutely. I can't say it's enshrined them as a town read but it lowered my suspicion for the moment and I'm basically in "wait and see" mode on them.

why does this reply sound like you were talking to someone else instead of me, Chara? :>

Lmao, I saw your reply in a p-edit, added it to the post to answer it, and thought it was Prism continuing to question me because I didn't look closely enough and didn't see an avatar to associate with the post ¯\(◉‿◉)/¯

[catboi]

i caught myself townreading kitty just because i like them. i have been compromised.
but also, i do like the reply to "Prism" and how it continues with the approach catboi has been taking this game, but i think i'd like it more if he wanted to engage with the actual analysis in some way.

i feel like we're all a bit without direction, which would be fine if not for the deadline approaching. who decided to go ahead and vote Taylor? i think i have to townread them. was it kitty?

I was...just having the conversation with you about why I find them scummy rather than just nooby? Like, yeah.

Also, I will be signing off for the night to clear my mind so if anyone asks me anything else, I won't be around to answer.

[catboi]

Prism's read list had a set of takes that I think come from town.
His read on MT although consistent of him saying a bunch of MT traits and calling them scum indicative.
I also really liked that read in particular.

To some degree I want to town read MT for Hectic's "Top secret meta read", since good players tend to not say that without a real reason to do so.
But I also think I could probably read her on my own since I am fairly experienced playing with her, and she did perceive herself to be scum in one game even if she was town and could have thought it was multiball.

I originally wanted to question Hectic because I never heard of this tell before!!! But the 3 games that the 3 of us touched were 2 games modded by hectic and 1 modded by MT.
For the amount I've played with both Hectic and MT I am genuinely suprised this is the first time the 3 of us have played together. I don't want to count the dance game since it was an anon game.

I haven't thought about the setup yet, but can I be punished for sparing town and hurting scum?
I don't even thinking only sparing is that bad because finding 4 confident town reads isn't actually the hardest thing the world. (I do not believe it calling for 5 matters since you gain an elim in that pool anyway.)

Zero sounds like a misplay due to the nature of finding town reads just being easier then finding scum reads.


So basically my mentality is spare at least 1 town, after that who cares even if we literally spare 4 town.

Just wondering: what parts of the thread have you read?

[catboi]

2) Catboi

I find it strange that he would pursue the path of attacking me and claim that he expected me to bury him in a giant wall and then back off the way he did.

If this is what you expect me to do when you attack then why would you even attack in the first place if you were just going to walk away? The behavior is strange and I'm not sure if it is AI.

I am weak. But really, it was a combination of not quite being able to keep pace with the game for a few days and the feeling of "is this really the direction I want to go in?" and I kind of lost conviction somewhere along the way.

[catboi]

like post 535 he says I'm chara but his heal is on me and he doesn't hurt me - he only unheals me in like post 639. it feels like a reactionary read-list to my read-list where I call him Chara.

That was kind of exactly what I figured it was, given that his other significant scumreads were people who scumread him. I tend to see that trait as somewhat more likely to come from town, though. May be biased from the one old game of his on an Undertale setup that I skimmed to see how he approached the strategy where he had a "this person must be scum for misreading me because i dont believe he would be this bad" spat fairly early on.

[catboi]

Yeah...there was a fair bit of time in between him saying to spare you and calling you chara, so it's not like reads can't change in that time, but of course he didn't say anything about it so who knows. Wish I'd actually asked him, that was a mistake. In hindsight it

could

have been him latching on to me after I'd slightly defended him to mirror my scumread at the time. Idk. (^._.^)ﾉ

[catboi]

is there an unhurt tag?

[unhurt]hectic[/unhurt]

guess not

HURT: no one

im around now, skimmed the last few pages but nothing really jumps out at me.feeling a little lost now? still feel like my townreads are ok, anybody has anything they want me to say / answer i'm around now

｢(ﾟﾍﾟ) Why the unvote?

kind of amusing that everybody else is noticing the same things i said about elements except now also scumreading me for them (?). lmao. beeboy doesn't ping me the same way but he also hasn'd said anything yet so i kinda want to talk to him. also maybe chara and catboi. and didn't redtea have something he wanted to ask me or was that oo long ago

Starting to feel in a funny way that the elements slot has been controversial enough that flipping there wouldn't be too bad regardless of the result because we could read offhow people approached it. Also beeboy's entry posts weren't great.

On another note, I probably shouldn't dedicate too much time to this game before deadline. I've got an interview to prepare for on Monday and I'm tired of living life spamming League of Legends in my computer chair, surrounded by an ocean of McDonald's bags, so I really want to prepare for it.

I'm trying to think of people I'd be fine voting before then. I think Hectic deserves more of a shot/more time to review...but also I don't really have any other scumreads

period

. I'm fine lurker lynching Lavender. I wonder what the EV difference is for 1 correct spare/1 incorrect fight just because qualitatively I feel a lot better about my chances sparing, but I really doubt we go that route and it'd be pretty halfassed.

At some point yesterday I realized I don't really think I've seen much from Tanner on the more active players in the game. That leaves a lot to be desired.

I think my preference would be something like Hectic->beeboy->Lavender->Others, maybe Tanner/Tayl0r? I really have no opinion on Puppy and I'd rather leave catboi for a bit.

The EV for a correct spare day 1 is nearly identical to a misfight day 1. Put it this way: given to option, if I was 1 vote away from both being able to spare or fight myself, I would self-hammer the fight. I think the information we get from the flips (of both the fight target and Vengeful Chara) is far more valuable and that's going to help people get their bearings a lot more on day 2.

Hectic makes me keep having doubts but I'm in a mode where maybe I'm just being bad and I'd sheep you if that's where you really want to go. I need to compile my thoughts into a list of people I don't want to kill today.

[catboi]

Also beeboy's entry posts weren't great.

Once again finding myself dropping a thought fragment without explaining, so let me elaborate: he tossed off some comments on very recent pages with reads on prism/mt/hectic that are fairly weak, but asked about setup strategy in 836 when that was a discussion that quickly came to dominate the game in the first handful of pages. So he's looking around at recent pages trying to find something to comment on but hasn't read the start of the game, which is at a minimum completely terrible process, but likely just someone who is looking to make comment on

something

to appear contributive.

feeling like it doesn't matter who we flip, because if we flip town we get the chara anyways. so we should flip a slot that is hard for us to resolve. feeling like that isn't hectic rn, also my reason for voting there wasn't really there, im not really sure who i scumread except for elements (was scumread? do scumread? not sure.)

any thoughts about who u'd like to see flip catboi? lavendar is an ok answer but not very revealing imo, maybe taylor? i don't know about redtea but that slot hasn't given me much to work with yet. not sure what i think about prism either, if only because prism hasn't been around at the same time as me iirc so i don't feel strongly either way

Lol, I was just coming around to the exact thought that it's best to flip a hard to resolve slot. Maybe you are town.

I'm still okay with voting taylor but need to review her recent reads again, beeboy trending down for reasons stated above. Meh on lavender. redtea I still think is town although I wish he'd be more proactive. I think by nature he's more of a follower than a leader but I wish he'd pick someone to follow here.

[catboi]

Morning Tweet actually kind of meh on a reread of last 30 or so posts. Don't know that I townread there anymore.

Trying to read Chara's catchup again to find something to comment on and...I'm not sure there is something I really want to talk about. Actually, one thing

@Chara:

in 728 you say you found tweet's posting towny, but why did you like 416? Just because she said she'd spare you?

[catboi]

Okay. That was kind of a lame qusetion but I really like your answer. ('')

[catboi]

Okay. That was kind of a lame qusetion but I really like your answer. ('')

...that makes me want to ask my own lame question. why do you like my answer?

It was a very...thorough explanation? It showed a depth of thought beyond what I was expecting for a fairly simple query. By all means, ask me a lame question! <(*ΦωΦ*)>

[catboi]

Lol, I feel silly... (=ｘェｘ=)

Stick a bunch of fight votes on me if I don't play tomorrow before what a standard eastern time supper would be.

HURT: beeboy

[catboi]

Reads right now are something like

town: tanner, prism, chara, redtea
null: puppy, pooky, hectic, lavender, tweet
scum: beeboy, taylor

which is pretty meh. I think from conversing wuithem chara feels town, both the little thing we had earlie and the way they had that read of taylor, I disagree with them, explain my reasoning, and they went back and re-evaluated. Everyone in the null list I could take a guess on one way or the other if I really had to but don't feel strongly there on any.

[catboi]

Can people elaborate on why they think Hectic will be a harder slot to resolve than beeboy? I'm really not opposed to fighting beeboy, but this assumption that Hectic will be an easier read later puzzles me.

Cat, why are me/Tanner up there?

>_> Would you accept if I said "gut"? ...I assume not. But I see you both as consistently scumhunting and reading critically, really

looking

at what people say, you know? It's not a hard tell of a single post but just a general feeling spread across your entire posting.

[catboi]

When I looked back at you last night you didn't appear to be coasting. Your critique of hectic around lavender was sensible. I had an issue with how he evaluated her but didn't take it as far as you did. One of those things where it muddles my feelings on him because I read his stuff and gut says town but then you guys come in and say stuff that makes sense as to why he's suspect. へ‿(ツ)‿ㄏ

[catboi]

That doesn't work, fyi, you need to use the hurt tags and hurt the mod or no one

[catboi]

Σ(-᷅_-᷄๑) trying to figure out who would actually make sense as being teamed with the elements slot and it's, like...lavender, taylor, redtea, or

I guess

Prism and that's it. Hrm.

[catboi]

Ugh, dunno what to do right now. orz

I know you're unsure about everyone in this game, but if you had to pick one person in this game you're most sure of, good or bad, who would you choose and why?

[catboi]

Σ(-᷅_-᷄๑) trying to figure out who would actually make sense as being teamed with the elements slot and it's, like...lavender, taylor, redtea, or

I guess

Prism and that's it. Hrm.

I don't think scum can reasonably defend Ele here without looking very bad down the line for whenever that slot flips.

Well I'm more trying to look at the picture of how the day progressed and who seems unlikely to be paired with elements. If I could cross a couple more of those names out I'd say well he can't be paired with anyone, but as it is, not enough to do that.

Cat read makes no sense past the "gut" point

Maybe I should just...not fucking try to explain things anymore??

[catboi]

like I don't REALLY want to go back and cite specific posts and say what I liked to justify thinking you're town that just seems like a huge waste of time

[catboi]

To be clear, cat, I'm not expecting you to make a giant towncase for me citing specific posts or progressions. I know it's tedious and annoying, and it's part of why I rarely actually ask (which drives me up the wall, because I get my best reads in how others react to me imo)

But when you phrase it in such a way that makes it seem like you're townreading me for

reading the game

rather than in the choices I'm making, that's going to make me skeptical every time.

I don't know how to evaluate the choices you are making because I don't know what anyone's alignment is so the most I've got is ~vibes~

[catboi]

To be clear, cat, I'm not expecting you to make a giant towncase for me citing specific posts or progressions. I know it's tedious and annoying, and it's part of why I rarely actually ask (which drives me up the wall, because I get my best reads in how others react to me imo)

But when you phrase it in such a way that makes it seem like you're townreading me for

reading the game

rather than in the choices I'm making, that's going to make me skeptical every time.

I don't know how to evaluate the choices you are making because I don't know what anyone's alignment is so the most I've got is ~vibes~

But no, it's not reading the game and I feel like acting like that's what I'm saying isn't fair? You seem to be critically evaluating people's posts. For where things are right now, that's the best I have.

[catboi]

HURT: tayor

I missed that swap when I was looking back earlier.

[catboi]

I get that I'm being a bit harsh but this seems fake to me. You know exactly what I mean, and are really going out of your way to use taking offense to get me to accept an explanation we both know says absolutely nothing about my alignment.

It's okay to not have an idea of actually AI things, and winging it on gut is totally valid, but going "But [these known Prism nulltells] are the best I have!" and "Maybe I shouldn't even explain at all!' pouting feels really disingenuous

disingenuous to what purpose? To avoid justifying a townread on you? Like what the fuck? ( ≧Д≦)

[catboi]

Well it's not like there's a lot else to talk about but it feels more like you're just trying to browbeat me here for being inarticulate

[catboi]

Because the way you're going about it feels more like you're just trying to score points on me rather than figure out if I actually believe that read

[catboi]

Because the way you're going about it feels more like you're just trying to score points on me rather than figure out if I actually believe that read

???

dude can you really not understand why I found that read sketchy

you literally can explain with specific posts anytime you want to, you said it was tedious and I hate making people wallcase me for townreads as my game history will clearly show

I don't think it's rocket science that I was confused why the concrete things you listed had anything to do with my alignment, the bar for me that was initially high was suddenly on the floor or nonexistent

Going "but it's all I have!" is fine? But from my perspective this seems to be like predicting the weather based off a coin you flip. You might not know what does work, but it feels like you should know that those stated reasons don't

This isn't about the gut part, which is again prima facie valid

It's not that the bar suddenly became lower but just that as the day went on I started to get a better feeling off you. It's just not a thing off a singular hard towntell but just persistently seeming to scumhunt.

and I guess skepticism is understandable but the way you're going about it doesn't feel like you want to communicate with me.

[catboi]

w/e now it just feels like you're setting me up

[catboi]

It does not feel like that is what he is doing

[catboi]

oh wait, last night i thought that taylor readslist said "beeboy hasn't done anything to make me

scum

read that slot", before she voted it, but she actually said the opposite, i thought that was being straight-up inconsistent but it's actually perfectly consistent

HURT: Prism

sticking my vote here for when we inevitably misfight

[catboi]

For me, I'm trying to strike a balance between interrogating your reads without being a nuisance asking to be towncased. The way you're describing this-setting you up/not actually interested in what you are-makes me think that you expect me to have fully interrogated you further if I really found it sketchy. I immediately stated exactly what my issue was, and instead of correcting it, being like "yeah w/e", or expounding on it you played the offended/indignant card. This bothered me - I think it's really clear that the concrete reasons you listed are ??? applied to me - and has made me question if the offense is genuine. This interests me a lot more than a quotewall of why the reads I've given are town.

There's a scum motivation early to AtE to drop a pressure from your bad reads, but the only reason I see why you would double down on this as scum is feeling that you have to for appearances (Vote on Tayl0r if I'm setting you up would be pretty ???)

Can you lay out more explicitly why my approach here is not town/how exactly my approach is not trying to figure out your alignment?

feels like you're trying to ding me no matter what I say when I was trying to explain a gutread. and when I'm trying to explain myself over and over to someone I think is town and keep getting shot down it means I'm probably just wrong about that person

It's also just bizarre that I've made my stance clear, asked no questions beyond a rhetorical one hoping you'd understand why I was/am skeptical and we could leave it at that, only for you to get more defensive+accusatory in a spiraling cycle. I'm not setting you up by doing this. Like maybe I'm intentionally baiting you into being defensive but I have repeatedly tried to disagree and call it a day.

It doesn't feel like the kind of thing you go "okay agree to disagree" on unless you're just shelving it to use as ammo later down the line

[catboi]

I mean good for you I guess

[catboi]

yeah catboi is town imo, as scum I'm pretty sure he just keeps up the offended act/continues to argue with me

reaction is a lot more resigned to either being either wrong entirely or being right but actively baited

I don't know how it is you have some portrait in mind of what I

would

do as scum here

[catboi]

While spiritually I would love to just leave my vote on Prism until the end of the day, the dead air around the beeboy wagon suddenly bothers me.

HURT: Lavender

Something of a shot in the dark.

[catboi]

kitty: what do you mean by the dead air around the beeboy wagon, and why does that make Lavender better?

By dead air, I mean the fact that everyone seems to be quietly accepting of it happening and not a lot is being said. The tell, as I've heard it offsite, is "dead air, dead villager". Is Lavender better? It's basically a dart throw at this point (although I didn't want to admit that). The prospect is someone who might be readable vs someone who isn't and hasn't said anything particularly town (and had one post that was not great, as I recall).

[catboi]

Right, 431 was the post from Lavender that wasn't very good, as originally pointed out by Tanner

[catboi]

I do not find that confidence natural-sounding

[catboi]

I really want redtea to come around.

He's in replacement territory

[catboi]

HURT: beeboy

[catboi]

F-1, btw

I don't really feel great on this or the game in general. Hoping maybe the flips cause a refocusing but actually feel kind of grim, tbh. •(◐﹏◐)•

[catboi]

Meh, wouldn't be the first time I've been bad

[catboi]

You're not gonna troll me, sorry

[catboi]

(っ- ‸ – ς) sorry everyone...love you all anyway