Mini Theme 2161: Undertale C Open - Chara's Folly
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Alright well my numbers differ from Hectic's (31% town win for 4 spare) but I still don't think it's optimal and I'm tired of typing a line of 50 fractions into Google that are probably wrong (45%+ w/r for four eliminations is almost certainly wrong) so I'm throwing my computer out the window and calling it a day for now.
someone call me when RVS is over I haven't played that phase in years
HURT: catboi deliberately misleading line is assigning intent that I don't really think is there- Prism
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Speaking of, that game was an excellent example of why the "it's easy to get townreads" assumption is kind of bogus. Without disrespect, Farkran essentially hardclaimed scum at one point (mad at being called bad scum, fine with everyone calling him bad town) but almost all of the town refused to budge on their concrete TR on him. Plus literally the entire game was wrong on you. One game isn't a huge sample size, but you get the idea.In post 130, Chara wrote:so i don't know if you remember the frustration of no flips until town finally fought Farkran.
Still took eons to get him voted, even among players that really should have known better because they were insistent on townreading the dumbest stuff.- Prism
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This attitude is really curious. Do you feel any of me, Hectic, or catboi are arguing EVs with scum intent? (ie. to push town into something scum wants)In post 175, Tayl0r Swift wrote:ill participate properly when you all decide what strategy we should do. im very much of the opinion that mech talk and EVs are pretty much NAI and using them to justify strategy is gonna let scum persuade us to do what they want more often than not. it seems to me that a fight day 1 and then sparing later days is a good idea, but i really havent thought about it that much
If you're worried that scum is going to use EVs to persuade the town in a certain direction, essentially recusing yourself from the conversation and leaving it to others to decide without you-and giving the scum voices that much more weight-seems counterproductive imo.- Prism
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I really want to hear more explanation on this. At this point, you've seen one of each of my games. What gives you this impression?In post 190, Hectic wrote:anyway, Prism town because he did the math and was accurate before catboi revealed his spreadsheets
he made the effort but showed no working or proof to try and make it look impressive or get any towncred from it- Prism
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I don't think you're understanding what's happening.
Me/catboi are inviting you to play the game. You seemed to think that mafia would be more inclined to push town in directions based off mech, so I invited you to utilize that approach to read me/Hectic/catboi.
After you declined to do that, catboi is now using a broader question that lets you explain how you want to play, who you're looking at, or any number of other things you want to talk about.
Declining both of these invitations with "I'll play when everyone else does" is a bit frustrating.- Prism
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I don't even know how I accidentally submitted that
Here are some starter questions:
-Hectic pushed for a spare whose EV is objectively terrible. Earlier, you seemed to think mafia will use EV trickery to push things to their advantage. How do you interpret this? He seemed to make a lot of less concrete arguments for it.
-A lot of people are townreading me/catboi just for trying the numbers. Do you agree with those, or think they're junk?
-Chara's been giving plenty of reads. How do you feel about them, or do you agree with those reads?
Literally the possibilities are endless here. The entire point of catboi's question was for you to explain what you're looking for orpresently thinking about the players, or at the very least invite you to think how the figurative sausage of reads get made rather than assume that someday they'll pop from thin air- Prism
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???????
#221 and multiple pages since you last checked in
If you don't feel like playing right now sure but this makes it seem like there's nothing for you to do until people come back- Prism
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Chara's actually coming off as a lot more proactive than I remember from Undertale 2.0. One of the big issues I had with their early (scum) game was preemptively hedging their thoughts and being a lot more subtle/offcolor with trying to ingratiate themselves. Some also really just didn't seem to follow. This one they're a lot more straightforward, and their flow and reads here are understandable to me. In Undertale 2.0, I repeatedly failed to understand their thought processes and really leaned heavily on two facts: 1) They played mediator in a TvT 2) They also scumread my deathtunnel target. I remember thinking their thought processes were beyond me really understanding without deep meta, which honestly probably sealed the game.
In comparison, I like this Chara.- Prism
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Yeah this vote is staying for a bit. I'd use "bad" over lackluster to describe his read on me given that Hectic saw a much, MUCH more open/friendly Prism as town and one that laid a million small traps like that as scum, even if he says he doesn't remember much. The pivot to Pooky is playing it super safe and objective with choosing what to push on.
Getting reads out of Pooky has value but I really think this is Hectic struggling to get his bearings, and not in a good way.- Prism
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Of the 4 games Elements was town and scumread you, how many were you also town?In post 324, Hectic wrote:
His approach on me this game is vastly different to how he's ever treated me. The last ~5 games I've played with him he's scumread me. He was town in 4 of those, and scum in 1. My last game with him is the one he was scum in, and in that he mentioned in the scumchat that he knew how to manipulate me by playing to his townmeta, and proceeded to scumread me as usual... the FOOL, that won't ever work on me again.
So, this is very new to me. He doesn't even have a reason to townread me, he's doing it in a memey "Hectic is always town" way. I think there's a chance he's polarising his approach from his last scumgame so that I think he's town here, but he's overdoing it.- Prism
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Your approach to Chara also really interests me. This post from Undertake 2.0 does a good job of explaining your read on Chara that game. They felt very natural to you, had strong tone, and their reads flowed decently. The most important part was they pushed you as a spare, though.
Townleaning Chara immediately for a line that is honestly trivial to fake is a really hard sell for me here. It begs the question what you're looking for in a scum Chara, which isn't in our best interest for you to answer just yet.
As town you just seem to be very eager to step right into the hole you did last time.- Prism
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Yep. The post I made was highlighting differences I noticed so far. They weren't really planned ahead of time: I just sat down a few minutes before I made that post and figured I should try to read you. The specific points that came up were direct responses to what I saw, rather than specific things I was looking for in advance. In other words, I didn't really need to sit around and wait to use them.In post 334, Chara wrote:
but you pretty much laid out your vision for scum Chara in your earlier post, didn't you? is there a reason you decided to play your hand already?In post 327, Prism wrote:Townleaning Chara immediately for a line that is honestly trivial to fake is a really hard sell for me here. It begs the question what you're looking for in a scum Chara, which isn't in our best interest for you to answer just yet.
I don't put a ton of faith in them and don't even expect to lean on them forever.
Spoiler: Additional, meta-specific notes that turn this into a giant wall- Prism
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I don't think I need a solid answer to "What isIn post 335, Chara wrote:Prism, i'm not feeling the same worries about Hectic as you are. you dislike his going after Pooky for objective reasons, but what would you have him do instead? scumread you?anapproach that townHectic likely takes?" to answer "Does townHectic likely takethisapproach?"
Prodding Pooky for content is plausible as town, and as I said it does have clear value. It's incredibly safe as scum because town has good reason to ask, and you're given a ton of flexibility no matter how Pooky responds. The circumstances surrounding it-coming in the middle of getting pressured by me for both content and activity-made me wonder: Is he playing it so safe because he's uncomfortable as scum and struggling to start the game off on the right foot?
That said, I definitely expected better reads from Hectic given what I saw in Undertale 2.0 and Flying Scumsman, both of which he was town in.
I'm confused as to what you're asking here. My point is that I expected him to take a very different approach to reading you than he did in the original. The problem is that to me he seemed to have doubled down on an approach that actively burned him: that line about adjusting to me sticks out, from my perspective, as one that people would describe as too natural to be scum.In post 335, Chara wrote:and your read on me, as well. certainly, it has more words to it than Hectic's, but it's only one game of comparison. i could buy the townread, but the juxtaposition of that read and your comparison to Hectic's read on me in Undertale S feels very... intentional?
i was scum there, so why would you expect him to read me the same way in the followup?- Prism
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Half the game is against sparing Day 1 while you're still refusing to out reads and calling for weird election-style minigames that look vaguely familiarIn post 343, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:There is more than one game happening at the moment
the sooner we focus on the correct game - the closer we will move to winning.
The sooner you play the game in front of you instead of trying to create the one in your imagination, the closer we are to winning.- Prism
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I actually missed 337 entirely, I was reading haphazardly and typing my responses on my phone in line at the Popeyes drive thru and thinking how absurd it was that I was still linking posts lmaoIn post 356, Chara wrote:Prism: just letting you know i've read your response and i'm thinking on it. regarding the end of 341, i'm assuming you read 337 and i no longer need to clarify what i was asking. you answered, regardless.
but i'm curious: are you going to now do a meta dive on me?
Meta depends on whether I think it's worth the time it takes me, but probably at some point- Prism
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You still going to be on this 60 pages in on Day 3 or is there a time limit on this refusal to play the game?In post 358, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:I actually think having a as narrow focus as possible is beneficial for getting to 4 town spares as it keeps the scum in the dark about who is being TR'd and who is being SR'd- Prism
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catboi's reads and general approach haven't really been angling for anything here, and he's really taking his time and letting things play out.
I hate that he's likely to be town, just not really the approach he should take for this game as scum imo. Only thing I didn't like was the early Hectic "deliberate" accusation, and that's really plausible for towncat too- Prism
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It depends a bit on who your partners would be but my instinct is that continuing to play things in the backseat/letting people develop without too many nudges from you will lead to a loss, the only one that's probably best to steer clear of would be my push on Hectic. If me/Chara are both town, letting us continue to be the strongest voices would be a disaster waiting to happen. I think a good counterpoint, briefly stated, would be that I don't actually have scum meta on you. It's very strange to know you extremely well in some ways and have complete gaps in others.In post 374, catboi wrote:
Er, what's the approach I "should" take?In post 371, Prism wrote:catboi's reads and general approach haven't really been angling for anything here, and he's really taking his time and letting things play out.
I hate that he's likely to be town, just not really the approach he should take for this game as scum imo. Only thing I didn't like was the early Hectic "deliberate" accusation, and that's really plausible for towncat too- Prism
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I thought about something similar on my nightly drive. I could see your priority being on other games. I don't buy the lazy and unmotivated theory as much.In post 399, catboi wrote:In post 378, Prism wrote:I thought you were calling me out for slacking on this game and I liked that but the more I read this the more I got weirded out and confused. Like, the idea I couldn't be lazy and unmotivated as mafia is...puzzling. This read on me doesn't make a lot of sense. (*´ω`*)- Prism
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I agree it's a leap. My angle comes from thinking through what a bad/good play is for someone who constantly takes stock of position. Whether we have the same idea for what is more likely to win is is yet to be seen.In post 401, Chara wrote:the first bit of 371isa strange read now that you point it out. Prism's townleaning your sitting back and letting things go this early in the game rings a little weird. Prism's extrapolating what your scum approach should be into what they think itwouldbe without scum meta on you is a leap, as is the thought that Prism seems to be unconsciously treating me as town. which isn't a bad thing, except it's Prism who has every reason to be very suspicious of me.
To be blunt, it's a lot of work with that pays off maybe half the time at best for a single slot. I have no reason to really rush it here. There's a reason I didn't do it in the first game: I love meta, but I have to suspect I'll find something useful. Otherwise, it's after I've exhausted all other options. I've already done a minor amount the first time I read you when I got the proactive idea and compared it to Undertale, a game I was already familiar with. Reading a game from scratch takes me a very, very long time: I average about a page of a game every 10-15 minutes.In post 401, Chara wrote:i also thought it strange how Prism replied to my question of if they would meta-dive me. that they would only do it if they had reason to believe it would be helpful. this is after stating in this game that their failure to meta me in the last Undertale lead to a loss.- Prism
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Yesterday I more wanted to take a break/give others a chance, but I'm pretty tired today since I'm in the process of fixing my sleep schedule. Not really down to read/think right now, will try to tomorrow, but some shorter notes before then. redtea really going to bat for me is +town imo.
catboi townreading me is probably never going to happen, more confused by his TR on Morning Tweet. I didn't really like their early game and I remember finding
I followed along in SIN and this is a similar but more confident redtea. This makes sense given the townwin that resulted and the paranoia that crept into their thinking at the end over the more straightforward obvscum.- Prism
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Like the shocking thing to catboi about my read on him to begin with was that I was willing to say "eh, fuck it I'll dart throw on gut" and not just leaving him null until the end of time
I also didn't want to nip the townreads on us for mech in the bud too early, I really wanted the content/reactions-and I think redtea's validates this-but now I'm fine saying I think we both out the strat here as scum as long as one of us is town
I remember thinking Pooky is fine, around the time of my last posts I was also skeptical of him overplaying the spare but I don't really think that's the case anymore
also want to hear more from cat about Hectic who I still scumread- Prism
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didn't finish the sentence lmaoIn post 551, Prism wrote:I didn't really like their early game and I remember finding the wall lackluster but I'll read it again later- Prism
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I just saw your review of me, I was already thinking I'd vote Hectic in 221, but I didn't want to put Hectic on guard before he answered my question. A couple of answers that I really didn't like later and it was time to ramp up the pressure/step on his neck if he's scum, no longer any reason to hold off.- Prism
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if you say so, but imo it seems to me like you realized you were reacting poorly and decided that the best way of handling it would just be to see if I'll latch onto someone else in time or wind up shouting in the windIn post 562, Hectic wrote:
not even trying to read me in return is the telling part of this imo- Prism
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Alright, I'll be in to catch up later tonight.
Before that:
1) Pooky-how are you feeling atm on Hectic? Ctrl+Fing your ISO it looks like you mentioned being confident in your ability to read him earlier but not having enough yet-has anything changed? Skimming I saw just the spare/fight scum/town Hec hypotheticals so sorry if this is a repeat
2) catboi-are you still scumreading Pooky? I felt he might be overplaying the spare angle at first, he was 2/3 in my scumpool, but after he got more vehement it became more of a coinflip to me. I haven't read his case on you yet. Without really knowing his meta, it seems possible for the heavy hitting out of left field to be a reliable tool in an experienced player's arsenal. But what do you think?
3) Chara-where are you at friend?- Prism
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This is really wack to me. At first I thought you forgetting was +town? But the more I think about this the weirder this is.In post 651, Hectic wrote:[trimmed of the content I'm not focusing on]
i think Morning is strongly town and we should be SPARING her today
HEAL: Morning Tweet
^^^^^^^^^^^^this is the play, pals
You haven't made the case for Morning town. You've said that you have a reliable towntell on them that you aren't going to out because it's too valuable. You haven't cited anything else that you would be willing to share.
There's no real attempt to get others to come around to Morning town and jump on this spare. The result is that this feels performative. I really don't like you this game.- Prism
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I didn't addressed this earlier because I thought it was selfexplanatory but the push on Elements for memeing that you're town after he misread you 4 games in a row was also extremely puzzling. I get overplaying the hand here but like ??? this was not even something you mentioned, the background you gave was not nearly sufficient and seemed to be willfully missing a super important point.- Prism
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I might be forced to compromise but until that point this vote is not moving. Terrible responses imo
"legitimately pushing for sparing me" is really tenuous, and "this is the play friends" with arrows highlighting ithe spare vote on Morning, with the mech as the framing leading up to it, suggests that it was more than "idk just getting mech thoughts out there"
Not thinking to either sell others on the townread, and not showing any thought as to how likely a Morning spare was/what other spares might be considered. Giant red flags to me.
Still phone posting for now, I really want to read Morning/Puppy/Tanner when I get to my computer in a few hours- Prism
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That's great. He also knows you're town 100% of the time as mafia.
I have seen literally zero redeeming play of his in my eyes. This is in stark contrast to the last two games I played with him, where in the first he was a universal townread who played very crisply, and the second was a universal TR who I took specific steps to mislead as scum, and I decided to shoot him since the chance of him getting voted was zero.
Reads are bad. Pushes are bad. Tone is bad. Progression is bad. Like ???- Prism
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My point isn't that he has zero reason to townread you. I'm sure even if he's scum he's got something waiting for that.
My point is that the entire way he approached sparing you was performative, because he wasn't trying to persuade others to come around (and there are probably many not-so-secretive towntells) and he did not seem to give thought to alternative spares
The "this is the play" highlighted by arrows suggests to me that the mech was a framing for the vote to spare you, rather than the vote being an lazy add-on to mechanical thinking that he claims
This is where my performative claim comes from. Zero interest in actually making the spare on you happen, just making his stance on you clear.
Aight, be back later- Prism
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I ISO'd MT first.
When I first read them awhile back, I didn't like how heavy on the WIFOM speculation a lot of their early posting was. 163 and 179 are good examples. I wasn't impressed with the wall, either. I thought the townreads were really lackluster-me/cat were mostly up there for our EV approaches, and given how many posts of mine MT found genuine in 235, I was confused by the order. Their read on Puppy seemed really weak based on tone, so seeing myself placed at #4 in their spare list on the following post was even more of a ??? moment given what I'd seen to that point.
The process in 690 and 702 seems legitimate though. I think it undersells how valuable giving reads are for the sake of giving reads is as scum, even without clear ulterior motive, but I can see the process clearly here and changing their mind about what direction to go in twice-both times in believable ways-at first made me want to townlock them. I think I'm townreading some dumb things in general, though, and am going to be more cautious.
At first, I read the bit about "Why would Hectic vote to spare me as scum?" and started having flashbacks to all the other times I've acted out "I have no mouth and I must scream" by Harlan Ellison. But I think I need to challenge myself to do more this game: I've taken a much more callous approach, but it is now clear to me with MT/Pooky being stronger than I thought that this game is not as easy as I thought it would be. I need to seriously interrogate these kinds of questions instead of dismissing them. And if I'm seriously going to try to get Hectic voted out, halfassed dismissal won't really cut it. I need toknowwhat his alignment is, notthinkit's something and take potshots at people who disagree.- Prism
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Prism Jack of All Trades
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- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 8597
- Joined: August 18, 2015
- Prism
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Prism Jack of All Trades
- Prism
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 8597
- Joined: August 18, 2015
- Prism
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Prism Jack of All Trades
- Prism
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 8597
- Joined: August 18, 2015
Lavender's wall is really lackluster. Virtually all of my posts are one-two sentences. As someone else pointed out, Chara's scum/townhunting completely took a backseat the last 10 or so pages. None of their thoughts on players have any depth to them.
It's possible this is an example of why depth on one/two players is better than breadth, but they haven't really seriously engaged with the questions people asked them. 431 is doing the bare minimum. There's so much more they could follow with these paths...and they don't. Their read on Tayl0r is also ?? since they similarly skimmed over mech talk even if they acknowledged it was good.
I tried reading Tanner, but for me he's pretty solidly null. A few days ago I would have leaned town by default but now I think that's sloppy garbage. All of his reads are pretty plausible as either alignment.
Tanner, who do you think would be your top choices outside of Lavender? I see you had a previous vote on Pooky. - Prism
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