Musician Mafia: Guitarists GAME OVER

[davesaz]

Try not to siteflake.
What's the basis of that list?

[davesaz]

VOTE: Almost50

Help me, Almost50. You’re my only hope.

1- I am not Han Solo (more like Chewbacca, actually)
2- How am I supposed to help you if your after my head already?

That would be Obi-wan. I wonder if anyone noticed?

[davesaz]

A50 has dropped some minor towntells but has not dropped the major ones. That could mean it's too early for me to reliably read him.

[davesaz]

Pgo is not normal btw.

This is theme park and bastard.

Hmm, did I miss a warning about bastard? It's harder to see that when replacing in but suppose I'll do some background to be sure.

[davesaz]

Not enough to snap read drew or pisskop from their ISOs.

Pedit: not sure what baker level is, probably have to read it for myself. Thanks.

Pedit2: Hopefully I'll fix that fairly quick. Was relieved to get town pm...

[davesaz]

He doesn't say what that means, and I haven't played one. Guess I'll just have to take things as they come.

[davesaz]

Bambi Jay could be scum on iso read. Pressuring there to see what flavor the meltdown is might be fun.

To spend the time to actually read this in order or not is an excellent question. I can only attempt isoreads on less than half the playerlist.

[davesaz]

I don't think anything they [Leia] have done is alignment indicative.

I saw their early posts as evidence of scumhunting. It seemed like they were making saliently bad but superficially well-reasoned cases. My guess is that town would be more likely to notice that the cases were bad, because town are more motivated to actually evaluate if someone is scumhunting. This pattern kinda faded away as we got farther from their first posts, though.

Wanna unpack if this is a TR or SR please?
Also what does it mean about your TiphaneDeath read, if anything?

[davesaz]

Bambi Jay could be scum on iso read. Pressuring there to see what flavor the meltdown is might be fun.

To spend the time to actually read this in order or not is an excellent question. I can only attempt isoreads on less than half the playerlist.

I already flavor claimed Bobby Flay today. What more do you want from me?

Eh, the term flavor is overloaded here. Not that kind of flavor.
If I explain what I mean by flavor, you can tailor reactions accordingly.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Leia

I am done with the self importance.

I am curious about what was going through Titus's mind at the time of this vote.

During my speed reading of Titus I didn't have any trouble figuring out what it meant.
Do you want the outsider's view or wait for her to explain it herself? Or perhaps you can read some context clues.

[davesaz]

If you mean what you expect me to fake claim day 1 when I'm run up, then I guess you'll have too see.

Didn't you already fakeclaim?

[davesaz]

Trying to have reads on every slot in a 20+ person game D1 is kinda madness imo

The irony on this cuts so many different ways. I'm often castigated for having few concrete reads. I don't interpret A50 as saying he's trying to get a read on every slot -- I interpret it as wanting to be at something other than zero idea on more slots than currently. And when I jump on people for having no reads at all I'm treated as shading everyone. So hard to decide how I want to see this comment.

[davesaz]

Drawing a blank on who it is I've seen use those elaborate ascii art / extended emoji / whatever you call 'em.

[davesaz]

IKS- in my mind galron is just as scummy as some of that wagon.

I like this thought pattern.

[davesaz]

Dave, why is it you can't get a read on PK or myself when one has been decently active the whole game(me) and the other has provided content in a short time(PK).

Not a loaded question, generally curious.

Time since my previous post to that one is about 5 min, and I used the term snap read in the post for a reason. On a less technical level, I have very little on either of you for obvious tells and I didn't see clear enough resemblances to previous games to make a call.

[davesaz]

Next to pointless readlist

Would have been cool to have a reference to whose.

[davesaz]

I should stop hopping and make an actual contribution.

Do you think what you did before this wasn't actual contributions? if not, why not?

[davesaz]

Worse for wear = clothing that is worn a lot doesn't look as good as clothing that's brand new. Same goes for furniture, cars, etc. Items accumulate scratches, stains, etc.
In mafia it means looking worse aka scummier over time.

Beetle juice noted.

Spoiler:

Yeah I know that's not the right term. I don't feel like spelling it right now.

[davesaz]

I try to say more with fewer words.

It's practically impossible to follow what you're saying when looking at your posts in isolation because you almost never quote.

[davesaz]

My thought on the looker post was also WTF but I left it for a while to find out who else would feel that way.
I think Starbuck handling of the past few pages looks more town than scum.
I'm down for pushing Galron. It screams present but not accounted for.

VOTE: Galron

[davesaz]

In particular looker did a double shade and then a naked vote on someone else.
That the someone else happened to be me was coincidental, I would have noticed the post no matter who the participants are.

[davesaz]

Happy to be kinda in NPOM's town list.
Not so happy it's my predecessor who's on the list.

[davesaz]

(during my initial readthrough I paused and read his catch-up a couple of times)

Reminder that reading is effort and you can't always gauge a player's effort merely by their posting.
I for one consider that having two eyes and one virtual mouth means that I should read more than post.
The quality of what one does post is what matters. The catchup by Iecerint looked extremely genuine.

[davesaz]

Oh hey Titus dropped a weak scumtell.

[davesaz]

I think, but not sure, that Titus towntold. This offsets the previous thing I noted. It deserves some discussion between us.

[davesaz]

Oh hey Titus dropped a weak scumtell.

Oh rly?

You didn't ask what it was -- I think someone pointed this out already but in case you didn't notice that...
I think as scum you might have historically been a bit more aggressive in your reactions. I'm not sure if the reactive one was old you or new you.

Since you've posted again since then I guess I can move along to asking. Why didn't you notice I had replaced Leia? I could have sworn you posted around the same timeframe that I burst posted a bunch of snap impressions, but then you came back later with a "reads list" that still had Leia in it. The "scumtell" I was referring to was related to a theme game a few years ago where you feigned ignorance of what was going on as a way to appear non-threatening. I didn't pick up on it until after being eliminated but I did nail it in the dead thread before getting spoiled in.

[davesaz]

I think, but not sure, that Titus towntold. This offsets the previous thing I noted. It deserves some discussion between us.

Wait. Who is us?

You and me. You replied already.

[davesaz]

Only scum push for mod kills

I don't think it's as black and white as that.

[davesaz]

Only scum push for mod kills

I don't think it's as black and white as that.

You do realize I was referencing NPOM's statements there RIGHT???????

Like, everyone has acted like I was aying that as my own opinion when I legitimately fucking said something to the opposite effect already
Are you guys capable of reading beyond a fourth grade level?

Try doing what I did in this post once in a while, if you don't want to be misunderstood.

[davesaz]

I think chkflip is town off 1196.

[davesaz]

I think chkflip is town off 1196.

I don't care for it.

Then again, I don't care for angry men at all.

Liking it doesn't have any bearing on the read.
Fairly recent experience on how chkflip plays.

[davesaz]

But you're a player in this game, if you're town it shouldn't be a hassle to read your posts

I agree. Furthermore if you're town then your fellow townies should be able to get something useful from your posts.

[davesaz]

Am I allowed to get annoyed that people are continuing to care about Leia?

[davesaz]

Would you say the same thing about Titus? She did a 20 person reads list, too. I don't see you going as hard at her as you are at Iec.

Obviously my original statement about how valuable those lists are still stands, but Titus at least has been somewhat active in the thread, Iecerint popped in with a sparse bit of catch up and then posted that list.

I can't remember if I commented that my reading of Iecerint's catch up was that he seemed to spend a lot more time on reading than others were giving credit for.
I watched that catchup in real time and noticed that he was head down on the catchup and failing to notice my replies on material later than the catchup point. That implies a much higher degree of attention being spent than a quick read.

[davesaz]

I think chkflip is town off 1196.

I don't care for it.

Then again, I don't care for angry men at all.

Liking it doesn't have any bearing on the read.
Fairly recent experience on how chkflip plays.

I don't see how being angry = townread.

I know you have enough experience to know it's a meta read. Acting dumb about it is not a good look.

[davesaz]

Titus is town. Unsure of davesaz.

There aren't any mechanics things to argue about yet. The good news about that is that we're not showing Titus multiple angry people.

[davesaz]

I watched that catchup in real time and noticed that he was head down on the catchup and failing to notice my replies on material later than the catchup point. That implies a much higher degree of attention being spent than a quick read.

Titus is town. Unsure of davesaz.

Is his assessment of your catch-up accurate?

I'm talking about your catchup.

[davesaz]

And other things are wrong with your case too. Go back and reassess please.

If you're town and other people think you're scum, one of the things you should do is reassess what you're doing in the game.

[davesaz]

IKS has no completed games. That was fast. <_<

Is IKS an alt then.

I assumed so from the name, since you have to already be here to siteflake.

[davesaz]

My objection is that I don't feel that you're paying attention. You're not as on the ball as I've seen you in previous games.

Yes, this is what I noticed. It's kinda hard to know whether to use it as AI, it seems to me that her availability and attention level seem to fluctuate.

[davesaz]

And other things are wrong with your case too. Go back and reassess please.

If you're town and other people think you're scum, one of the things you should do is reassess what you're doing in the game.

Followup -- if there are people you have played with before and they should recognize your alignment and don't, that's different from people who haven't seen you before.

[davesaz]

And other things are wrong with your case too. Go back and reassess please.

If you're town and other people think you're scum, one of the things you should do is reassess what you're doing in the game.

Followup -- if there are people you have played with before and they should recognize your alignment and don't, that's different from people who haven't seen you before.

I'll ask you to restate this because I don't understand what you're getting at.

I'll give an example based on myself.
If someone who has played with me many times gets on my case for being fence-sitty, I tend to scumread them for that. I (almost) never go all-in on a read, so anyone who knows me should expect me to point out the evidence my read could be wrong. Someone who has never played with me and points this out could be town, so I have to go to the trouble of explaining how it's important for my positions to be nuanced so that after my elimination the remaining town will know how to interpret my posts. If they bother to remember to do that.

Turning this back to your case, you should have different expectations of how people treat you based on whether they have seen you before or not.

[davesaz]

ok NPOM, I'll do your homework for you.

#720. And then not much has changed since then.

piss- It is a noticeable Decisive Action, by two players who haven't done much in that realm before or since

'Cept nono didn't vote IKS, right?

what's happening

IKS is scum and you should be voting there.

And other things are wrong with your case too. Go back and reassess please.

I don't think you have done as much to refute 720 as you think you have. It certainly isn't obvious if I iso you and a2rudeboy together.

I'm reasonably certain that my vote wasn't really influenced by other people making cases. At this point I'd need to review because I don't remember that moment any more.

[davesaz]

Following up on my Galron vote:
When I read his ISO up to that point it's mostly just general game commentary or questions about why people are reading him. I don't see any real follow through or significant interest in figuring out alignments via his posts. And I don't see much change in his posting after that vote. Given no meta nor time to look it up it's possible there is a playstyle factor I'm unaware of, but lacking that my read boils down to "not scumhunting".

[davesaz]

On the chk defense of IKS, it does look like trying to discount the entire wagon as a “troll wagon” when that’s not the truth.

I interpret it more of a wake up call to do something better with the time we have, not so much a defense.

[davesaz]

For the record I would not object to shredding IKS, but I agree with chk on making each shred count as much as we can.

[davesaz]

In addition, short posts don't equate to a lack of content. Sometimes people need to take a look at what's not being said.

I agree that short vs. long isn't an intrinsic dividing line on content. Content or not is substantially about whether a post advances the game state in some way or not. A short post that shows your read or seeks information to form a read is content. A long post that offers no insight or information on how to read people in this game isn't.

I'm not sure how to interpret "what's not being said" in an online and asynchronous context like a forum. When in-person and you can see someone is present (not just physically but mentally) then silence can be interpreted, perhaps as agreement or no opinion. But in this format, silence can just as easily be interpreted as absence or not paying attention.

Linking back to the other parts of this post that I didn't quote, I saw what seemed to be a high ratio of short posts which didn't seem to advance the game state. You are correct to say that this is a generic statement. I started writing this post and took an interrupt so I'll have to come back to that. At this point it's likely been an hour so who knows how many new posts there might be.

[davesaz]

my bad then.

What were you doing such that you made the post that way?

I know what it looks like to me. Not gonna muddy since the actual answer could be different.

[davesaz]

UNVOTE:
I’m going fishing tomorrow. Yes Arizona has a few lakes. Won’t be back until evening.

[davesaz]

VOTE: IKS

[davesaz]

i dont think developer is normal role. its custom.

You have some experience right? Or am I thinking of someone else?

[davesaz]

Reviewer / backup is Boon for anyone who hadn't noticed.

[davesaz]

I was thinking of someone else.

[davesaz]

Final vote (timestamp according to UTC -7)
Mon Sep 28, 2020 3:54:27 am

[davesaz]

Looker Sat Sep 26, 2020 2:01:01 pm
NPOM Sun Sep 27, 2020 3:23:58 pm
me Sun Sep 27, 2020 12:24:58 pm (note: my previous day was VLA)
pisskop Sun Sep 27, 2020 10:56:44 am

[davesaz]

Timestamp of IKS's claim Sun Sep 27, 2020 3:00:09 pm

[davesaz]

Why would scum bus before a claim, especially when there was a seemingly valid counter to work with?
Possibly more importantly, what do you think about people who switched from NPOM vs. people who hadn't voted NPOM?

My thoughts: any new bussing (if any) is after claim, and probably not the first 1-2 after claim. Pre-claim bussing (if any) should be much earlier in the wagon before it got real, and people who had laid a foundation to not vote NPOM.

[davesaz]

Why would scum bus before a claim, especially when there was a seemingly valid counter to work with?
Possibly more importantly, what do you think about people who switched from NPOM vs. people who hadn't voted NPOM?

My thoughts: any new bussing (if any) is after claim, and probably not the first 1-2 after claim. Pre-claim bussing (if any) should be much earlier in the wagon before it got real, and people who had laid a foundation to not vote NPOM.

2nd person (from my PoE) to toss shade on my scum hunting.

noted.

I know my alignment. I also know the relative value of shallow vs. deep looks at a subject.
Shallow doesn't mean scummy, for the record. You do you, I'll do me.

[davesaz]

I'd honestly prefer if we start on the people leading the counterwagon instead. Considering someone like Goofball called for a Vig shot on people voting IKS, it felt more like there was a chainsaw defense and less bussing.

If there's anyone who looks like a chainsaw it's chk with the generic we're not eliminating this troll message.
I doubt it was that, because it's chk's nature to rage against policy, but I'm definitely keeping it in mind.

[davesaz]

I'm a little more curious about the DayVig making it through the night.
And the DayDoc saving scum.

Do you think those are real roles and not just fakeclaims?

[davesaz]

I'd honestly prefer if we start on the people leading the counterwagon instead. Considering someone like Goofball called for a Vig shot on people voting IKS, it felt more like there was a chainsaw defense and less bussing.

If there's anyone who looks like a chainsaw it's chk with the generic we're not eliminating this troll message.
I doubt it was that, because it's chk's nature to rage against policy, but I'm definitely keeping it in mind.

The part where I call bs if it is chk nature against policy then why npom in the end.

That's a good question. I would have to analyze whether chk really thought NPOM was policy.

[davesaz]

Obviously Drip will claim she didn't direct the titus kill but she probably did.

This sounds suspiciously like you thinking Titus wasn't the scum NK. To which I'd need to ask how you'd know that, or alternatively what do you mean?

[davesaz]

so you think the vig killed titus and the mafia killed was blocked or prevented somehow?

This is basically the question I asked in different words.

[davesaz]

No I think drip directed the mafia kill.

This could mean at least two things, one of which should logically result in you doing more with your post. Please clarify.

[davesaz]

Clarify how? Seems pretty clear to me.

If you think DGB is mafia directing the factional kill you should be voting her.
If you think DGB is town but mafia chose to kill in her list then there should be some followup from you.
I'm reading all the one sentence posts as evasive. Soon I won't care if someone "advises not shredding you" based on mysterious setup junk.

[davesaz]

Final vote (timestamp according to UTC -7)
Mon Sep 28, 2020 3:54:27 am

??? Are you trying to say something?

You have to use all the posts that have timestamps to follow it.

[davesaz]

Timestamp of IKS's claim Sun Sep 27, 2020 3:00:09 pm

what are you implying?

Now is not the time to make vague insinuations or provide publicly available information. Its time to make a case instead of float ideas.

Same answer as I gave A50, read all the posts that are related.

[davesaz]

Why would scum bus before a claim, especially when there was a seemingly valid counter to work with?
Possibly more importantly, what do you think about people who switched from NPOM vs. people who hadn't voted NPOM?

My thoughts: any new bussing (if any) is after claim, and probably not the first 1-2 after claim. Pre-claim bussing (if any) should be much earlier in the wagon before it got real, and people who had laid a foundation to not vote NPOM.

I disagree. Titus, for instance, was known to power-lynch partners and then ride the towncred. Ive done the same, tbh.

Nobody came in like thunder after the claim so we can pretty much rule that out. Context matters.

[davesaz]

Her outdated reads list means little though. It probably had something to do with her death, but I doubt she pegged the whole team or whatever.

I agree that if it was reads it will be from later posting and probably not from the readslist. I think I saw some signs that she was fishing with that list.
I wouldn't be too quick to rule out the low(er) information nature of her death.

[davesaz]

What were davesaz's timestamps for?

Notes to build 1734 from.

[davesaz]

VOTE: TiphaineDeath Why focus on the latter half of IKS's wagon instead of the earlier half? Why are we targeting IKS's wagon at all?

Does the vote go with the comment?

[davesaz]

Me having more posts than Bambi Jay after replacing in probably means there is something wrong, and I know it's not something wrong with me.

[davesaz]

Sorry read the post wrong.
VOTE: Looker

Figured as much but it would help to explain what you thought you saw.
In fact it would help to explain, generally speaking.

[davesaz]

Final vote (timestamp according to UTC -7)
Mon Sep 28, 2020 3:54:27 am

Looker Sat Sep 26, 2020 2:01:01 pm
NPOM Sun Sep 27, 2020 3:23:58 pm
me Sun Sep 27, 2020 12:24:58 pm (note: my previous day was VLA)
pisskop Sun Sep 27, 2020 10:56:44 am

Timestamp of IKS's claim Sun Sep 27, 2020 3:00:09 pm

Why would scum bus before a claim, especially when there was a seemingly valid counter to work with?
Possibly more importantly, what do you think about people who switched from NPOM vs. people who hadn't voted NPOM?

My thoughts: any new bussing (if any) is after claim, and probably not the first 1-2 after claim. Pre-claim bussing (if any) should be much earlier in the wagon before it got real, and people who had laid a foundation to not vote NPOM.

This IIoA is so LAMIST it's fucking painful.

You scum, bro?

The last sentence is analysis. Failed attempt at buzzword slinging noticed.

[davesaz]

EBWOP - last post that was quoted, 1734 is pure analysis.

[davesaz]

Ok. I'm not going to claim now I'm pretty sure I'm spewing green.

VOTE: NoPowerOverMe
Stays on until you post more than single lines. Put up or go home.

[davesaz]

Starting from mod posted VC's only, as I certainly don't have time to generate a complete flow. Timestamps are again UTC-7 my local time, you will see different times for the same posts according to your timezone.

Note: the commentary on changes between VC's is between them, so commentary precedes the VC it's about.

Starting point for this analysis:

Spoiler: vc

Wed Sep 23, 2020 4:04:06 pm
I Keep Siteflaking (7): NoPowerOverMe, Gamma Emerald, Doctor Drew, BrightEyedFish, TiphaineDeath, Almost50, WaltertheDunce10
Galron (4): Starbuck, davesaz, a2rudeboy, Bambi Jay
Doctor Drew (4): I Keep Siteflaking, chkflip, PookyTheMagicalBear, pisskop
WalterTheDunce10 (2): Galron, Looker
chkflip (1): DrippingGoofball
TiphaineDeath (1): Titus
NoPowerOverMe (1): Iecerint

Not Voting (1): Lavender

A big wagon on NPOM comes up over the next two days. IKS remains in the lead. WalterTheDunce10 leaves and Bambi Jay enters. It makes sense to look at reasons for all the people going onto NPOM. I know that Iecerint made a case, and that a lot of people said that case was their reason, but I have not paid much attention to exactly who. IKS importantly is not on NPOM.

Spoiler: VC

Fri Sep 25, 2020 2:18:32 pm
I Keep Siteflaking (7): NoPowerOverMe, Gamma Emerald, Doctor Drew, BrightEyedFish, TiphaineDeath, Almost50, Bambi Jay
NoPowerOverMe (6): Iecerint, Lavender, Starbuck, WaltertheDunce10, PookyTheMagicalBear, Galron
Doctor Drew (2): I Keep Siteflaking, chkflip
Lavender (2): a2rudeboy, Titus
Galron (1): davesaz
WalterTheDunce10 (1): Looker
chkflip (1): DrippingGoofball

Not Voting (1): pisskop

This gap is 1 day 7 hours or so, and personal note I was basically unavailable during this time on a fishing trip. I skimmed this gap and part of the next one up to my vote on Sunday.

NPOM wagon changes: PookyTheMagicalBear leaves, DGB joins, chkflip joins, pisskop joins
IKS wagon changes: NPOM leaves, Gamma leaves, Titus joins, looker joins.
Wagon leavers: PookyTheMagicalBear goes to pisskop, NPOM goes to pisskop. Interesting how both of the people being wagoned go to pisskop here.

Spoiler: VC

Sat Sep 26, 2020 9:38:24 pm
NoPowerOverMe (8): Iecerint, Lavender, Starbuck, WaltertheDunce10, Galron, DrippingGoofball, chkflip, pisskop
I Keep Siteflaking (7): Doctor Drew, BrightEyedFish, TiphaineDeath, Almost50, Bambi Jay, Titus, Looker
pisskop (4): NoPowerOverMe, I Keep Siteflaking, PookyTheMagicalBear, Gamma Emerald

Not Voting (2): davesaz, a2rudeboy

Time gap here is a little under a day. I was still gone over half of it.

IKS wagon changese: Drew leaves, A50 leaves, pisskop joins, I join after returning from fishing (

note: NPOM is in the lead at that point

), NPOM joins
NPOM wagon changes: Drew joins

Spoiler: VC

Sun Sep 27, 2020 8:57:58 pm
NoPowerOverMe (8): Iecerint, Lavender, Starbuck, WaltertheDunce10, Galron, DrippingGoofball, chkflip, Doctor Drew
I Keep Siteflaking (8): BrightEyedFish, TiphaineDeath, Bambi Jay, Titus, Looker, pisskop, davesaz, NoPowerOverMe
pisskop (3): I Keep Siteflaking, PookyTheMagicalBear, Gamma Emerald

Not Voting (2): a2rudeboy, Almost50

Changes: Gamma (from pisskop), Walter (from NPOM), and Starbuck (from NPOM) go on IKS.

Spoiler: VC

Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:49:03 am
SHREDDED I Keep Siteflaking (11): BrightEyedFish, TiphaineDeath, Bambi Jay, Titus, Looker, pisskop, davesaz, NoPowerOverMe, Gamma Emerald, WaltertheDunce10, Starbuck
NoPowerOverMe (6): Iecerint, Lavender, Galron, DrippingGoofball, chkflip, Doctor Drew
pisskop (2): I Keep Siteflaking, PookyTheMagicalBear

Not Voting (2): a2rudeboy, Almost50

Things I see in this data:

The last 3 voters on IKS moved over less than 12 hours from the end and 2/3 of them came from NPOM wagon. Deadline was early in the day for US timezones. I don't know where everyone lives so it's hard to draw any conclusion from timing.

Gamma apparently had an 8 vs 8 choice and could have chosen NPOM. I doubt Gamma is bussing from the time flow, but would need to examine the posts to go deeper on that.

Walter was on IKS much earlier, left and came back near the end. This is a potential scum pattern, in particular leaving the CW at the tipping point, which needs a deeper look at the reasons given for the votes.

The reason to look at Starbuck would be to investigate the idea of a hammer for town cred. Someone made a reference to getting up early being unlikely for scum who could let it go for a no-shred. It's 6am from my timezone but that's 9am for Eastern US and late in the day for Europe. I think it's a big conclusion jump to think getting up early has anything to do with it unless you know a particular player's timezone. At E-1 at deadline, writing is on the wall and it's a tradeoff between the pain of hammering vs. not being sure if anyone knows or will figure out you ran out the clock. I don't think we can rule out a bus here. On the flip side, it's a pretty towny move.

For the last 3, I think Gamma is unlikely to be bussing, Walter's pattern could be bussing based on having been on IKS early and coming back very late, and Starbuck's vote is actually NAI because either alignment would probably do the same in that situation.

I probably better wrap this up and come back with more in another post. It's 77 lines in notepad and that's with the paragraphs counting as one.

[davesaz]

The VCA strongly indicates that pisskop is not groupscum.
If NPOM is groupscum with a much stronger roles than IKS there are a bunch of people that become much more suspect. I'm one of them. If NPOM town those same people are almost cleared.

I want to take a closer look at BEF and DGB. Need to look in more depth on Walter's vote reasons (if any). Try to remember or find who pointed out getting up early.

[davesaz]

Where was the claim in this sequence

Timestamp of IKS's claim Sun Sep 27, 2020 3:00:09 pm
After my vote, about 20-30 minutes before NPOM's vote.

[davesaz]

I still think that limiting analysis to one end of the wagon is too narrow focused. I have only had time to do the back end so far but remain interested in looking at earlier votes too. The back end looked more interesting as a place to start because I noticed that the front half was already there and stayed very stable when the big switch from Galron, to NPOM, to pisskop, and back happened.

[davesaz]

Because I am generating a lot of content which is obviously protown but they are insisting that I am scummy and not considering town me. Plus they were on my wagon.

This post is at least two sentences (technically) but it's only one line.
Can you string some thoughts together to show that you're actually thinking and not just spewing stuff?

[davesaz]

As much as I'd like to think behavior can be modified by applying the right stimulus, it seems not.
I think NPOM has a good chnce of being scum, and we may end up there anyway, it's good to continue developments in other areas.

VOTE: Walter

[davesaz]

Unless you're referencing the deadline time?

I think you're right, I must have c/p that timestamp from the deadline.
I want to make it clear that I don't question what people say about their own timelines. I frequently post a narrative about my timeline and it's only fair to give the same respect that I expect.

[davesaz]

Big difference between scummy behavior and annoying behavior.

Though often they are one and the same.

[davesaz]

AoE seems more groupthink than individual.

That's a TLA that I'm not familiar with.

[davesaz]

Can I just refer to Drew goof and ice as the axis of evil?

DGB?? You really think DGB is Scum here?

By association, yes.

If you're referring to the "vig in these people" list I see how that's chainsaw by intimidation but don't see why scum would be so blatant. Unless you're saying we should go with the association anyway despite how unlikely scum would do it?

If there is a different association you have in mind, what do you mean?

[davesaz]

Galron said something that makes me want to look at BEF. Or at least look off.
You may ponder this note I made for myself and perhaps choose to also investigate.
You may not consider it shade.

[davesaz]

also, UNVOTE:

This unvote (from Lavendar) was when both wagons were in the 7-8 range with 1.5 days remaining.
Why did you stay on the sidelines from this point? I see you keeping close watch on the counts but not voting.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Looker

Fuck busywork posting.

Oh hey we agree on something. Plus, who puts "line" tags in their posts? Someone who cares more about post formats than having actual positions.
I'd happily put a djent in that if I weren't already voting likely scum.

[davesaz]

VOTE: NPOM

This is another naked vote, yes. But reading him gives me no town indication so losing him ain't that bad.

Making a comment about it makes it not naked.
Why are you worried about the appearance of a naked vote?

[davesaz]

I made a new toy, here is the output. Still very much a work in progress, just something I wanted to learn how to do for another reason...
Not totally sure it's working 100%, use this post at your own risk -- though if you notice an error please let me know in thread.
It does rely specifically on the vote/unvote tags so bolded votes would be missed.
Yeah, there are other vote counters. This one only needs python on my local machine.

player Almost50 current vote: UNVOTE: 1641
player davesaz current vote: VOTE: Walter 2032
player WaltertheDunce10 current vote: VOTE: iks 1713
player a2rudeboy current vote: VOTE: lavender 1829
player PookyTheMagicalBear current vote: VOTE: NPOM 1998
player TiphaineDeath current vote: VOTE: chk 2087
player Galron current vote: VOTE: walterthedunce 2103
player Doctor Drew current vote: VOTE: Lavendar 2147
player DrippingGoofball current vote: VOTE: NPOM 1418
player Starbuck current vote: VOTE: NPOM 2035
player BrightEyedFish current vote: VOTE: WaltertheDunce10 1876
player NoPowerOverMe current vote: VOTE: lavender 2128
player Iecerint current vote: VOTE: NPOM 1956
player Gamma Emerald current vote: VOTE: Lavender 2142
player Looker current vote: VOTE: NoPowerOverMe 2157
player chkflip current vote: VOTE: Looker 2070
player Bambi Jay current vote: VOTE: NPOM 2121
player pisskop current vote: VOTE: lavander 2143
player Lavender current vote: VOTE: NPOM 1228

Observations: Walter's, DGB's, and Lavender's votes are ancient. The same information could be manually massaged into an unofficial votecount.
Note: Day start 1719 (the program does not know when days start yet). Votes are not sorted yet.

VERY UNOFFICIAL

WaltertheDunce10(3): davesaz 2032, Galron 2103, BrightEyedFish 1876
Lavender(5): a2rudeboy 1829, Doctor Drew 2147, NoPowerOverMe 2128, Gamma Emerald 2142, pisskop 2143
NoPowerOverMe(5): PookyTheMagicalBear 1998, Starbuck 2035, Iecerint 1956, Looker 2157, Bambi Jay 2121
chkflip(1): TiphaineDeath 2087
Looker(1): chkflip 2070

Not Voting(4): Almost50 1641, WaltertheDunce10 1713, DrippingGoofball 1418, Lavender 1228

[davesaz]

So, to be clear, we're all just cool with Looker literally only shading those that've looked at him as scum with insults, not refuted anything brought to him, and the continued busywork posting?

We'd really rather lynch NPOM, Walter, or fucking Lavender?

Seems legit.

Nah, I'm not cool with it, and would vote there. Intertia...

[davesaz]

I have several times.

I don't think so, or at least it isn't terribly obvious.
Besides, you could do something simple like, do it again now.

[davesaz]

I didn't say all town were focusing on me, I said scum were focusing on me to avoid scumhunting.

Yet you steadfastly refuse to say who you think those scum are.
Names or it means nothing.

[davesaz]

I didn't say all town were focusing on me, I said scum were focusing on me to avoid scumhunting.

What makes you think they are on you compared to mine?

You too. If you think scum are voting you, give some names.
BTW I noticed something about your vote. Do you know what it is?

[davesaz]

Chk, are you familiar enough with Walter's and Lavender's scum game to say this is town, or is this more like it's their playstyle game which happens to be a LHF style and you're assuming it's town?

The approach I'm currently following on Walter is based on not having any evidence of scumhunting there. That approach has served me well for slots are are at least posting regularly. It has a blind spot for people who flake, and can give false positives on town who aggressively go that route as an attempt to "prove they're not scum" so I know it isn't foolproof, but it is serviceable.

[davesaz]

Once again being a fucking dickhead instead of actually, y'know, remotely attempting to refute anything I have to say.

This, again, isn't about the way you post.

It's about the way you don't fucking followup.

You know who else lacks any sort of follow-up?
Lavender. She posts a few times, and then vanishes until the next time someone summons her. That’s a straight-up scum posting method.

that's literally the only way she posts lol. maybe she's got better things going on IRL than the rest of us degenerates

Same question for you, do you know if this is regardless of alignment?
I think rather than look at the timing of posts, look at the content. Is she trying to make anything happen in the times she's here?

[davesaz]

Spoiler: @DGB

Thank you! How sweet. I'm 55!

Happy birthday! I don't have any cake pics unfortunately. Wow 3 50+'s in the same game, wonder how many more of us are around the site.

[davesaz]

Code: Select all

[post]2302[/post]

2302

[davesaz]

How you get any correlation out of that specific post is a complete mystery to me.

[davesaz]

chkflip doesn't like my responses, so he calls them handwaving. (If I spoke Spanish and he spoke English, would the fact that I'm not speaking English mean I'm not speaking?) Either way, I'm not handwaving.

If you make noises that the other person doesn't understand, you can be speaking but not communicating. If you do it on purpose knowing the other person won't understand, you're obfuscating which is scummy. It could also be that your responses are not on point to the things your responding to. Are you directly addressing the point, or talking around it?

I see you bringing up a bunch of things within the post I took the quote from, but I don't see much in the way of conclusions. What do those things mean in regards to alignments, and why?

[davesaz]

2 more

What's this mean?

[davesaz]

VOTE: Looker
Might as well put this to use in the meantime.

[davesaz]

I agree it's not a freakout.
I would like to avoid several pages of one liners over it.

[davesaz]

I didn't get anything extra when replacing in.

[davesaz]

You left out Pooky who actually posted it which would make 6, and 6 out of 21 would be quite the list. Not to mention IKS isn't in the list which would make 7. No way that post has anything to do with a full team, based on numbers alone. I don't mind the spirit of looking into it but let's not hallucinate ourselves into oblivion.

[davesaz]

If BEF suggested looking at it in the first place and he's in the list, what are you thinking?

[davesaz]

My junior year, senior ditch day was a Van Halen concert at Red Rocks.

[davesaz]

Oh wow, quite the accidental pagetop.

[davesaz]

Is the term band just in reference to the fact that group was also in that game or are you hinting something else

They're talking about 308.

[davesaz]

Spoiler:

Scum points for DGB, Lavender, Fish, Drew, and Dave.

So you're slaying it's fluff and not an actual faction?

The whole scenario seems very suspicious.

I'm not saying everyone in the band is scum or 3P. I'm saying it doesn't look like a pro town "faction" as a whole, and right now it looks scummier than town.

It wouldn't make sense to post your entire anti-town team in the main thread, after all.

I don't really get your point here?
I think it was just a joke as well with the Heal tags and all. 【・_・?】

It sounds to me like manufacturing paranoia, +1 scum point

Sounds to me like scum looking at all the top wagons being in their team and needing to do something, anything, to change the game state.

[davesaz]

@DGB + Dave, are you two saying the same thing or different things?

You didn't need to quote both, given mine quoted DGB's.
I think it's basically the same but mine is a little stronger. At least that's what was intended.

[davesaz]

It's garbage obviously.

It's also pretty obvious that NPOM failed to notice that it wasn't even you in the first place.

[davesaz]

I'm still ok with booting Looker today. And Walter slot is available too.
I don't remember who is defending Looker or why.
Still interested in seeing NPOM's remaining reads. Not opposed to eliminating there, not in a hurry to move over.
I have a couple candidates for manipulators but there's no sense in spooking them until I'm ready to strike.

[davesaz]

So. NPOM outta nowhere comes up with good content, spreading it out, causing people to pause their actions and wait for what has been promised (side note: Looker has also done this), And then he ramps back up to shithousery. Yeah, this slot is acting exactly how I thought it would.

Well, yeah. Sometimes things posted by scum are worthwhile anyway. You can thresh out the wifom and misdirection and what is left (or what is not left) becomes kernels of truth.
Plenty of days left and we just need to remember our focus and not get distracted by shinies that happen to pass by.

[davesaz]

I can say for sure if I was scum, I would never defend or soft defend CHK-scumbuddy because CHK would tell me to fuck off

Huh???

Which part did you not understand?

Spoiler: totally irrelevant

Pooky's post reminded me of a incident.
I was scum with RC one time, and said I had a null read on him. He bussed me into oblivion screaming that there's no way I could ever null read him.

[davesaz]

I’m not certain what is meant by “CHK-scumbuddy”

Pooky was saying that hypothetically he would not defend his scumbuddy chk because ...

[davesaz]

Same power or lack thereof.

Confusion Intensifies

I'm not having any trouble figuring out what it means...

[davesaz]

Hey Chk, if Looker is scum, you almost assuredly aren't, and vice-versa really. You cool with being tomorrow's lynch if looker flips red? Cause like, I still think you/pooky is more likely, but that is incompatible with looker, and if they flip red that would hardclear both of you to me, which would be very worth, so I am thinking of voting looker here. Whatcha' think?

you mean if looker flips town?

I think it would have helped understanding to have this question noticed and answered.

[davesaz]

I would much rather Looker actually quote the stuff being commented on. Having to click the link to connect it to the point being made is not cool. I think it's a scum tactic to keep people from verifying whether the observation is even valid.

[davesaz]

I won't be voting Looker but I won't oppose it as long as it's the leading wagon like this.

So hypothetically we fast forward 8 days plus time to replacement, we get a no-elim from you?

[davesaz]

So this is my first time hearing this 'WAP' song's lyrics.

I don't normally play the videos, made an exception for the one in my role PM.
Umm, it's NSFW. Didn't expect that. Good thing I'm working at home.

[davesaz]

davesaz is baffling. I don't see how I'm obfuscating when I'm providing links to everything, as opposed to wall-posting. Most of the bottom bullet points are the more irrelevant things to me anyway.

If they're irrelevant then why are you going to that much trouble to post them, with embedded links, instead of posting relevant stuff?

[davesaz]

davesaz either doesn't expect a claim or doesn't expect a claim to have any effect.

This comment is about me asking if (Gamma?) is going to no-shred if it gets to deadline.
You're thinking about it backwards. The whole point is getting near-shreds so that information can be obtained. Refusing to push to a near-shred until the only bail out option is a no-shred is bad. Two factors are in play in making wagons earlier rather than later -- gauging what people's real will-vote and wont-vote lists are, and leaving enough time for course corrections.

Beyond all that, it's an extreme reach to think I have any expectation regarding what may or may not be claimed and what may happen. I have no preconceived notions about what's going to happen.

[davesaz]

@NPOM, without saying what "that" is, you think scum don't know it?

[davesaz]

Is he just forever behind in our current game and it's NAI? That's what I'm leaning towards. I kinda get set in my ways when I feel like I'm forever in catch up mode.

He's always looks caught up by the time he makes the post and he seems to be catching a lot of events.

[davesaz]

I'm not bothered at all by BEF looking at my IKS vote.
I don't think being so shallow is especially towny, but I don't know if that's AI for BEF.

[davesaz]

Gamma, what's your read on Walter?

[davesaz]

I have had Walter kinda muted this whole time tbh, so I don’t have any opinion on him
But to get into cracktheorizing, a scumteam with Walter in it should be pitching a fit by now, so I think Walter is town via that

Earlier you said you didn't want to vote Looker. What changed your mind to vote now?

[davesaz]

I dont think its reasonable to claim VT early, unless you expect the game to be mega-powered.

By early to you mean before being shred-1?
Are you trying to suggest fake claiming non-vanilla to save yourself?

[davesaz]

Also @Gamma how significant do you think your most recent vote is?

[davesaz]

Also @Gamma how significant do you think your most recent vote is?

Significant in what sense? It’s definitely a marked turn of action for me.

So you're not aware it's a hammer?

[davesaz]

I kinda feel like Gamma's the type to know the VC and that was on purpose.
Makes me think if Looker is town then Walter slot could be scum. The momentum was definitely going to go that direction if it dragged on.
Unfortunately we're probably looking at an interminable night.

[davesaz]

Bambi Jay outs a dreaming god out of the blue. It's in character for both Bambi to out it and Baker/Boon to have the role in the setup. I'm on phone and not analyzing it on such a small screen and without easy quote editing.

In other news fish is dumb or scum. I'm not betting on scum.

[davesaz]

Bambi what does your role have to deal with wanting to not be active?

Well since I got atleast tonight having 3 things happen, I'll say stuff.

I'm making stuff happen the longer I'm alive. I'm appearantly Tosin Abasi, a guy good enough to Baker to literally get the role of Guitar God. Me praising Bobby Flay like a deity was me ironically going with the name.

I have a selection of names of abilities that I pick from that effect the game. Night one I did an ability called

Reverb

and night two was something called

Compressor

. If someone had something strange happen to them I'm probably the cause. I legit don't know the results, just the names.

Basically the longer I'm alive the more stuff happens to the game. So therefore I wanted to be quiet 2 nights to get at least 3 effects off. I can go up to night 8 actually since I got 8 of these things. They're all named after guitar pedals/effects.

I googled both, and I git results, but I don't know how to translate these into game mechanics!!

Reverb

Compressor

At first I thought Reverb may have a "Loud" effect, but I don't remember anyone claiming they were notified someone visited them on N1, so.. *Shrug*

I've been tied up for a couple days, and have not had time to equate the pedal effects listed in this quoted post nor the ones from the later post to mafia terms. I feel confident that I'll be able to channel some Baker/Boon to get at least a clue on some of them but it's likely to take a couple more days. Tomorrow we may visit a pumpkin patch and Saturday we may visit a wine festival. On Sunday I won't have a hangover because I'm the driver, instead I'll wish I could have tasted more wine.

[davesaz]

In other news fish is dumb or scum. I'm not betting on scum.

What is the point of this? Insecurity?

Derision.

[davesaz]

I don't think it was a roleblock. I got something else called Noise Gate which seems more for that. Compressor feels more like a lightning rod?

Anyway I'll list the 6 I got left.
Killswitch
Noise Gate
Phaser
Distortion
Delay
Tuner

Here's what sleepy me comes up with. Well rested me might be able to do better. If I hit the bottle after we get home on Saturday then you might see loosened up me.

I'd expect Killswitch to be a roleblock or rolestop. Or perhaps a protective. Probably not a kill.
Noise Gate might add a modifier like loyal or disloyal. Or it could be something completely different, I'm just tossing a dart on that one.
Delay seems pretty obvious, it probably causes an action to hit a night later than planned, or maybe during the day instead of night.
Tuner causes missed notes to land on pitch instead, or be shifted. Redirect maybe?

Phaser and distortion are going to take some deeper thought.

[davesaz]

Tuner causes missed notes to land on pitch instead, or be shifted. Redirect maybe?

On the View Askew Board, we used to have a role known as a Fortifier that would make someone's action unable to be fucked with.

I'd think more on those lines than a redirect.

That's good thinking. Strongwilled is the equivalent here, and it prevents redirection.

[davesaz]

Starbuck is the most town player in the game in my book

where the heck is this coming from?

Starbuck's posting. Though I would say "one of" as there are a few I'd put in that category.

[davesaz]

Hey, remember when Death scum slipped on D1 and then y'all forgot about it?

Yeah I just revisited that. That's cool.

I was looking through Siteflakes ISO and saw a Death vote. Lead me to the slip. Not sure I agree with it, just bringing it up. Seems noteworthy.

See also: "I'm NoT dOiNg ThE wOrK fOr YoU lOl"

Hey, remember when Death scum slipped on D1 and then y'all forgot about it?

Yeah I just revisited that. That's cool.

wait r you talking about 315

cuz that was dope

I don't really get this, someone want to help it make sense?

[davesaz]

I made references to policy vs. not policy earlier and nobody went apeshit. Why is this time different?

[davesaz]

I am not inspired by Iecerint's later game posting. I see some questions being asked but I don't see the reason for them.

[davesaz]

Anyway, the other thing I feel like demonstrates Walter’s towny solving drive is his attempts to analyze some of the IKS voter’s vote movements, but those posts are walls so I’ll spare the quoting of them, and if you can’t bother to find them yourself Ill just link the posts.

This was after I did the VCA that pointed to Walter and he was scrambling to dilute the water.

Would you like to refine your timeline?

[davesaz]

Anyway, the other thing I feel like demonstrates Walter’s towny solving drive is his attempts to analyze some of the IKS voter’s vote movements, but those posts are walls so I’ll spare the quoting of them, and if you can’t bother to find them yourself Ill just link the posts.

This was after I did the VCA that pointed to Walter and he was scrambling to dilute the water.

Would you like to refine your timeline?

My post: 1721
Walt's post: 1753

1721 was hardly what I'd call VCA.
1826 is the first thing you posted that can be called analysis.

[davesaz]

Aw, man. I didn't catcheded a scums, you guys. I'm fucking awful and Lavender and I used the fucking game thread to chat instead of a PT.



Once again acting like he's never had a wrong read in his fucking life.



We've literally conversed about how I'm more than willing to be wrong again.



Keep running that narrative, kid.

confidentsong.youtube



Fucking joke.

VOTE: chkflip
Shut the fuck up.

[davesaz]

UNVOTE:

Behavior modification probably won't work anyway.

Note to self: I wanted to check if Gamma + Walterslot makes sense. I also wanted to figure out if BEF is actually trying to find scum, or only trying to look like it.

Was NPOM providing reads only because pressured to do so? Did they make sense?

I don't know DGB well enough to meta. Or don't remember well enough.

Pedit: Unless it's affecting this game, kindly don't bring up personal-ish stuff from another game.

[davesaz]

I would be worried about any wagon with death and Drew on It.

Are you implicating yourself here?

How does your question flow from what you quoted?

[davesaz]

BEF- is it meta for you to sheep so much? I went back through your VC, and even though yes, you made a list of targets and have been working from that list.... at least three of your votes come within about 20-30 minutes of someone else voting that person.

I'm a team player. Sometimes I blindly sheep a tr if I have no real reads of my own but if I have similar views on a slot and someone expresses interested on pushing their then I have no problem following them.

Are the things separated by 'but' different here?

[davesaz]

I still would like to shred the Walt slot but I feel weird voting there again while the slot is vacant.

I guess it's time to truck on down the line to...

VOTE: Dave

What was the dave shit about? Genuinely don't remember.

Dave was my 2nd most likely to be scum on the IKS wagon, behind Walter.

Technically you didn't answer the question here. The question was about why, not what. (TBH I'm doing a little assuming here but I think it's a safe enough assumption)

[davesaz]

Unofficial but believed to be correct:

Galron voting TiphaineDeath3024
Gamma Emerald voting chkflip3374
DrippingGoofball voting TiphaineDeath3264
PookyTheMagicalBear voting Assemblerotws3354
Lavender not voting
Bambi Jay voting Assemblerotws3350
TiphaineDeath voting chkflip3377
Assemblerotws not voting

since day 1

BrightEyedFish voting DrippingGoofball3420
NoPowerOverMe voting DrippingGoofball3424
Almost50 voting DrippingGoofball3422
pisskop voting TiphaineDeath3289
Iecerint voting DrippingGoofball3030
Doctor Drew voting TiphaineDeath3236
Starbuck voting TiphaineDeath3202
a2rudeboy voting NoPowerOverMe3082
davesaz voting unvote3440
chkflip voting DrippingGoofball3464

[davesaz]

My Night 2 target needs to speak up please.

Couple things -- did you see what you expected to see? Is there reason to believe anyone would know what you're talking about?

[davesaz]

Oh that was like 400 posts ago. Holy shit dave catch up.

Nope, just looking at Galron's iso.

[davesaz]

My Night 2 target needs to speak up please.

Couple things -- did you see what you expected to see? Is there reason to believe anyone would know what you're talking about?

I saw enough to verify a theory.

Umm, that's nice. Are you ready to say what it is?

[davesaz]

Well friends, the night was uneventful kill wise.

Oops I missed this.

Hmm, that's either a townslip or a fake townslip.

[davesaz]

3469
He asked "What" in the question not "why" Also, I think my response would be a sufficient response even if was a Why question.

By calling it "shit" I think it was implied that he didn't think what you posted was sufficient. Hence a need to do more than reiterate.

[davesaz]

Well friends, the night was uneventful kill wise.

Oops I missed this.

Now I am getting hung up on semantics... the "kill wise" part is making me paranoid now. It could suggest that only "kills" were somehow blocked?

Surely you don't think a mod would reveal something like that, even in a Baker Bastard game?

[davesaz]

Yeah, we kinda knew it was a ghost.
Ghosts are still shreddable, and I think that's the best move.
VOTE: Assemblerotws

[davesaz]

I thought we had concluded that the band was a joke.

[davesaz]

which I laid out explicitly

I looked at your ISO and explicitly don't have a clue what you're talking about.

[davesaz]

Oldest player in the game

Spoiler: oh yeah?

I'll be 59 next month

[davesaz]

lmfao what a pagetop

[davesaz]

I literally said

It has

SOME

PARALLELS

Yeah, like this is something that anyone reasonable would take to be a claim. Or even related to being a claim.

[davesaz]

So, minus FIVE. We claim at minus five.

You're the one who started off blabbering about having a role.

[davesaz]

Galron hasn't been active at all this phase and that post just means they're also not reading. I feel like people should care about that.

That's blatantly untrue.

When I saw the chkflip post I initially thought the same thing.
There is a difference between posting stuff, and posting meaningful stuff.
Anyone can say I think this, I think that. What differentiates for me is when people say why they think things. If someone consistently fails to say why, it's a clue. From what I remember when I looked, Galron's posting falls into that category.

[davesaz]

Even after all the previous conversations, rude and dave both vote the Assemble/Walter slot after the mod's vote count on 143. I'm not surprised by rude's vote, but dave's. Anyone on a ghost wagon is suspect.

I explicitly disagree with the other big wagons. Given my only public weapon is my voice and vote, I chose to make use of my vote.
Gamma going to find a replacement can be viewed as altruistic, but it can also be viewed as scum desperation.
Was it Gamma who went out of his way to hammer without warning when the tide started to move from Looker to Walter?
Anyone defending Walter slot is extremely suspicious to me. The why was completely absent -- see my other post.

[davesaz]

A lot of distraction over something the mod will just take care of anyway, if it is a problem.
And right at a time when we've actually got a vacant slot, who has been inactive since D1, contributing.

I agree that jumping to conclusions about there being collusion is going too far.
I won't be convinced about contributions until it's sustained contributions.

[davesaz]

Current Reads-List

Hard Town: Pisskop/DGB/BEF/Gamma/A50
VI: NPOM
Very unsure: CHK/Galron/Dave(Dave feels Townie AF, but leia was scum and I am conflicted)
Scum: Starbuck/Grendel/Pooky
3P: Bambi

The main questions I have on this are BEF and Starbuck.
I find BEF's approach to be extremely superficial. Why do you accept that as town?
The Starbuck question is pretty much the opposite. I think of her as fairly analytical and inquisitive, that is to say not superficial. In someone who has depth to their posting I look for contradictions / misreps and an underlying agenda. I haven't noticed those types of things, what do you see?

I could see Bambi's role as 3p, and that idea gives me a different lens to use.

[davesaz]

(for the record: ISOng NPOM is frustrating as hell because he doesnt use quotes)

True. One potential reading of the d1 VCA requires me to keep NPOM in the PoE and this (probably unintentional) opaqueness is something I'd naturally tend to confbias into a scumread based on that PoE. I have to keep reminding myself that there is a NAI reason for it.

[davesaz]

Well, that was very weird. I looked through TD's ISO and specifically tracked the Starbuck progression, and it's basically not a progression. It resembles a garden hose with a high pressure nozzle, on full blast, and not being held down. I honestly don't know what to think about that.

Pedit: He's quite honest about it too. Still don't know what to think about it.

[davesaz]

I brought up Walter's off/on back when BEF started in on the back half of the wagon thing. Disappointed that my version was dismissed out of hand.

[davesaz]

NPOM- Explain to me how having a lurker remain in the game is beneficial to town. Maybe a town PR would lurk for a while to try and avoid the NK. But other than that, I can't really see much benefit.

Explain how having scum in the game is beneficial to town?

Deflection without answering, noted.

If you have a choice between someone you think is scum and a lurker, would you choose scum first?

[davesaz]

I looked at to Lav games and this is very much the same. She was town in both of those. I haven't looked yet at a scum game.

[davesaz]

Hi Dave!

Doing the VCA you didnt think NPOM looked like town counter to Flaker? Why not?

At that point in time they both looked scummy and I found it weird that semi-strong scum PR IKS's team wouldn't be able to swing a NPOM elimination if NPOM were town. It made it feel like they were both scum and the team ended up saving the one they thought might last longer in the game.

NPOM has looked better since that point. There is a claimed and plausible RL reason for the one-line posting style by NPOM that helped me see his content in a different light.

I plan to try to identify scum among the cheerleaders and/or blockers of the various D1 wagons. That will be an easier task once some more flips narrow down the people remaining to check.

Also,
UNVOTE:

[davesaz]

Code: Select all

[post]1915[/post]

1915

[davesaz]

Not at midnight+40.

Lav scum game was essentially the same. Which means disjointedness isn't going to cut it as a method to read her.

[davesaz]

I looked at to Lav games and this is very much the same. She was town in both of those. I haven't looked yet at a scum game.

Meta me please.

Wiki is up to date to assist you.

Not sure what I'd look for though. "Meta" for me is a general behavior trend which is either usual or unusual. In Lavender's case it was easy to check if she posts infrequently and has a lot of apologetic expressions and a lack of attention as both alignments. I haven't identified a behavior trend to check for you.

[davesaz]

Why would scum bus before a claim, especially when there was a seemingly valid counter to work with?
Possibly more importantly, what do you think about people who switched from NPOM vs. people who hadn't voted NPOM?

My thoughts: any new bussing (if any) is after claim, and probably not the first 1-2 after claim. Pre-claim bussing (if any) should be much earlier in the wagon before it got real, and people who had laid a foundation to not vote NPOM.

2nd person (from my PoE) to toss shade on my scum hunting.

noted.

I know my alignment. I also know the relative value of shallow vs. deep looks at a subject.
Shallow doesn't mean scummy, for the record. You do you, I'll do me.

@BEF reminder #1

[davesaz]

I'm not bothered at all by BEF looking at my IKS vote.
I don't think being so shallow is especially towny, but I don't know if that's AI for BEF.

Maybe I do have something to look at.

[davesaz]

Anyway, the other thing I feel like demonstrates Walter’s towny solving drive is his attempts to analyze some of the IKS voter’s vote movements, but those posts are walls so I’ll spare the quoting of them, and if you can’t bother to find them yourself Ill just link the posts.

This was after I did the VCA that pointed to Walter and he was scrambling to dilute the water.

Would you like to refine your timeline?

My post: 1721
Walt's post: 1753

1721 was hardly what I'd call VCA.
1826 is the first thing you posted that can be called analysis.

Maybe you missed this.

[davesaz]

Nope you're misrepresenting a "hey there might be a bus after the claim" as VCA.
That doesn't even come close.
I think it's scummy to focus on that and only that, taking apparently nothing else that is going on into consideration.

[davesaz]

You really don't get the point.
What you did isn't VCA.
Calling it VCA is the problem.
Get it yet?

[davesaz]

And you call my arguments "superficial".

I get that you don't want to work with me.

There is nothing superficial about pointing out where your approach to an event is lacking, in particular where you think something you have done has been highly impactful to what others do in response. Case in point the Walter timeline. You're acting like your first "VCA" post had an immediate effect on Walter. Several people questioned your method, not because they were worried by it, but because it was superficial. It did not have the impact you think it had.

And you're wrong to interpret this as not wanting to work with you. If I didn't want to work with you there would be no point in engaging at all.
I place a high value on correct reads that are based on looking at a particular issue from every angle. If you are town then your reads are more valuable if I know you're doing more than looking once and being stuck in that interpretation.

What I just did with Lavender is a prime example. The primary "case" against her is that she is active lurking because she is scum. It looks more like a play style and activity profile to me, so I checked past games. If she had been engaged and focused in town games but not in scum games then it would make sense to push the active lurking angle. It turns out that her town and scum games look the same, at least for that set of behaviors. Now the next thing to do is determine whether this information results in any adjustments in the game.

[davesaz]

Do you generally mock people you want to work with?

Generally speaking I'm not intending to mock people when I say they're going about something the wrong way.
Whether they feel I am is not something I generally pick up on.

[davesaz]

IKS who is scum?

Unless IKS is scum, his opinion is not worth more than yours or mine.

The logic on this is backwards.

[davesaz]

IKS who is scum?

Unless IKS is scum, his opinion is not worth more than yours or mine.

The logic on this is backwards.

Not necessarily, and it concerns me that you couldn't immediately see why.

If you're thinking all town opinions are equal D1 pre flip that isn't wrong per se.
The way it's stated, scum opinion would be worth more than town. The double negative messes things up.
Why would DGB use a double negative instead of the more straightforward "Even if he's town his opinion is not worth more than yours or mine"?

If IKS had been town his confirmed opinion is more useful than an unflipped town, provided it's correct.
A flipped scum's reads are also more useful than an unflipped town, since you can use them for partner detection.
DGB was essentially telling Titus not to ask for reads from someone who was likely to be eliminated.
It might mean foreknowledge that said reads could be incriminating.

[davesaz]

DGB - I can easily see you've been saying you scumread Iecerint for ages. Why this timing on making a case?

[davesaz]

Sorry Drew not Dave

Um yeah I was gonna ask what my last several hours of posts were.

[davesaz]

DGB - I can easily see you've been saying you scumread Iecerint for ages. Why this timing on making a case?

It took me a long time to make that case, Iecerint is not an amateur, making a case requires attention to detail and I didn't have the bloc of time to do it at the desktop.

I was hoping that people would pay more attention to him and see what I see on their own too, it wpuld have re-assured me that I am on the right track.

Thanks, did you build the posts and then start posting, or was it more in the moment?

[davesaz]

If Iecerint flips scum, I'd take a good hard look at both Grendel and davesaz, They are trying to undermine my case... without looking like they are undermining it. Throwing little pebbles from the sidelines and ducking, figuratively.

Nope, if Iecerint flips town then I'm looking at you. That's all there is to it. Please answer the question.

[davesaz]

Every time someone accuses me of shade they are scum.

[davesaz]

Being skeptical of a case from someone you scumread is a scumslip?
I don't think I have ever heard that one before.

[davesaz]

DGB decided to make her case after she started getting voted folks.

[davesaz]

What you said is nonsense.

[davesaz]

I can't frame anyone given I'm town, but go ahead and blabber on.

[davesaz]

I do not think DGB and Iecerint are both scum. I am more inclined to scumread DGB at this point.

why

Because Iecerint has IRL experience with DGB and he is scumreading her. Iecerint also seems to be gamesolving more than DGB, who is scumreading practically the whole playerbase and is super reactive to being wagoned.

Did you look at DGB's case?

[davesaz]

I actually like DGB's case more, and I don't disagree with "wanting to have time on a computer" by itself. The timing of when she had time is what's fishy.

[davesaz]

I do not think DGB and Iecerint are both scum. I am more inclined to scumread DGB at this point.

why

Because Iecerint has IRL experience with DGB and he is scumreading her. Iecerint also seems to be gamesolving more than DGB, who is scumreading practically the whole playerbase and is super reactive to being wagoned.

Did you look at DGB's case?

okay nah the resistance from dave and NPOM is gross

I wonder if your reply was written before or after you saw this question?

If you haven't noticed I'm very dialed in on "time".

[davesaz]

What's with the bizarre line of questioning?

DGB - I can easily see you've been saying you scumread Iecerint for ages. Why this timing on making a case?

Thanks, did you build the posts and then start posting, or was it more in the moment?

I believe the answer is that you did not pre-build all those posts. The amount of time between them is reasonable. The only time I've seen actual pre-built posts where it was AI, the player who did it fucked up and posted them back to back.

It would have been much more straightforward to just answer the question instead of casting shade on it. I value straightforward honesty a lot.

[davesaz]

I actually like DGB's case more, and I don't disagree with "wanting to have time on a computer" by itself. The timing of when she had time is what's fishy.

Don't you think I would have timed it

sooner

if it was "fishy?" I made the case

after

my wagon had frittered away.

Explain how my timing is fishy.

The last VC I saw before these events had you in 2nd (ish) and discussion has been favoring you as one of the contenders for elim.
With the low VC frequency in this game I'm not heavily aware of more granular events than that.

[davesaz]

I'm gonna lay down another conditional for you.

Ready?

If DGB is town then TD could be scum WKing DGB.