Questionable Balcony

[fferyllt]

I haven't done any mod meta. Hoping there are experts on Fakegod games.

Syr. please please be town!

I want to talk about the ill-fated dethy in Death's Diner.

I had a crazy idea last night that there might be more than one dethy in this game because I saw something about neighborhood

s

in one of the PMs.

[fferyllt]

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Dethy

[fferyllt]

In the game I mentioned, iirc the scumteam didn't know there was a dethy. But one of the scum team acted strangely enough around a dethy member (Broseidon) that we thought the scum team did know about it. He was day 1 elimed.

I kinda want to out the dethy because a neighborhood this size trying to sort itself out causes all kinds of weird shit in the game thread.

Since that was a Rift game and both rift heads are in this dethy, I think maybe we can help sort out if that's a good idea or not.

[fferyllt]

welp!

[fferyllt]

I'm also wondering if there's more than one dethy neighborhood because "neighborhoods" freakin scared me.

[fferyllt]

In death's diner the dethy was like a game within a game, and it really warped the shape of the rest of the game because there were 5 players acting weird about it in the game thread.

[fferyllt]

Death's Diner: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=56&t=30226

[fferyllt]

There's a whole strategy to figuring out sanities (and rolecop) in dethys but I'm not sure how far we can get through that process given we're embedded in a game where night kills are going to happen.

The dethy in death's diner got outed partway though day 1, and they did start the strategy, but by the time they had figured out at least some sanities, most of the dethy was dead. (Metal Sonic got himself modkilled which was fun).

I wouldn't necessarily expect it in this game, but Death's Diner had a Chocolate Mafia and a Chocolate Town, who could rolesteal/vanillaize, and Metal Sonic was vanillaized by scum which prompted the post that got him modkilled.

So, anyway, I'd expect there to be roles in this game that can obstruct our ability to sort ourselves out, which is why I kinda feel like it will be better to let town in on our existence before too much time passes. I've been madly crumbing at Cabd pushing him to roleclaim to me, and I think I got an answer (which may or may not be on the up and up!).

Anyway.

I like that Bell reached out to me. I need to think about if and how I respond to his secret code request.

I want to be at least somewhat open in here. We have a traitor who may or may not be able to talk to the scum team, so we can't do as much brainstorming as I'd like. But, 4 of us are town and we should be able to leverage that.

[fferyllt]

I'm haven't but I'm gonna. maybe not tonight, depending on when I hard crash. Very short on sleep today. Insomnia is hell.

There is a dethy strategy in the wiki. And the dethy did some of their planning in the game thread, and also posted their results there. The thing is, if, say we settle on all investigating a particular player, we can't calibrate our sanities until that player dies. So we either want to pick someone who is likely to die n1 (hopefully none of us!) or someone likely to be lynched on day 2.

If we can keep that part of whatever we do confined to this neighborhood, then we might get some useful info fairly soon.

If we do decide to out today, then hopefully just one of us needs to do that. We can hold whoever that is accountable to representing whatever we want known to the game thread.

I will try to search out fakegod-game traitors if not tonight, tomorrow morning.

I'm also going to PM him and just straight up ask if the traitor in the dethy conforms to the normal rules for traitor or not. Someone else should send a pm, so there's confirmation I don't lie.

I wasn't planning to do a lot of heavy lifting in this game. :/ I wanted to just sit in the game thread and try to figure out players I'm confident I can read. And get a neighborhood with strong townread, because those are always great to have.

I agree about the effect of neighborhoods (plural and/or big) on game health. A nice little neighborhood that grows out of an in-thread masonry can be awesome, though!

[fferyllt]

I actually asked FakeGod about the traitor when I got my role PM; he told me I don't know if the traitor follows the normal ruleset as given by that link on the wiki. I do worry about the traitor having a talk connection to the mafia, but there's little we can do about it if they do. That's why I requested we wait on outing the dethy immediately; once we turn that corner we can't go back. If ya'll think that's the thing to do then I'm okay with it I just wanted to be sure it was the thing we wanted to do before burning that bridge.

Personally I think we can sort the dethy (there's plenty of analysis around it on the wiki) and at the very least we can figure out who the traitorous bastard among us is and wind up with 4 ICs.

How long will that take? And what are the chances all 5 of us survive long enough to figure out which of our reads are reliable?

I'm ok with keeping it quiet for now.

[fferyllt]

Ahem, somewhat overexcited.

I think it's possible to sort the cops out if we get two sets of results. At the very least we'll narrow it down to naive/paranoid. It's entirely possible we don't get that long to fuck around with it, and it sounds like you know more about dethys than I can be bothered to research right now anyways. Whatchu think?

Just what I remember from Death's Diner, and they had to do some of their work out in the open with scum and everybody looking over their shoulders.

I guess my thoughts are that as long as we can be productive in here and not implode the way that game worked out, then let's do our thing. If it gets messy in here or if our neighborhood gets messy out in the thread, then I'll personally blow this shindig wide open and get the help of the rest of town in figuring this shit out.

[fferyllt]

You remember Bro reaching out to you because he thought you'd get the reference to a game you two had played?

That's when we waded in and started stomping people who were running him up.

[fferyllt]

You remember Bro reaching out to you because he thought you'd get the reference to a game you two had played?

That's when we waded in and started stomping people who were running him up.

Truthfully? No.

Maybe I am an infomancer.

[fferyllt]

Mine?

[fferyllt]

Sigh. Ffery, was I ever this shiny and new?

Nah we were born cynical.

[fferyllt]

My question is, Taylor, why did you feel the need to bring that up and further crumb? I know why ffery did it. I don't know why you did it, and I particularly don't know why you felt the need to throw the traitor bit in there, especially after we'd agreed (three of us have, anyways) that bringing up the dethy aint a thing we wanna do yet.

it doesnt reveal the dethy at all, and when i saw the crumb i assumed we should all crumb. i kinda feel like revealing the dethy is a better play here, but ill defer to you all since im new. i think the risk is low and the info revealed is small but the reward is very high.

It does if you're clever, and ffery beat Cabd over the head with it. He ain't stupid most days. And what bothers me about your crumb is the traitor bit. Why did you crumb the traitor specifically? What's the very high reward?

completely removing 5 people from todays lunchbox and then having an almost guaranteed lunch day 3 or 4, after which you have 4 ICs. if i overplayed im sorry, i didnt realize it would be so obvious to cabd?

You'd be amazed how much info Cabd and I have exchanged. If he's not lying, I know quite a bit about his role.

[fferyllt]

and you dont think ffery and cabd is S-S without daytalk passing messages?

Why would the neighborhoods have daytalk and the scum team not?

[fferyllt]

Most of the crumbing is coming from Cabd, aside from a couple of questions I've asked him and the initial crumb which he may not get since he has no reason to think there's a dethy in this game afaik. It's there for future reference, though I doubt it will be needed.

Tammy and Syr, heads together, can probably decipher at least 80% of what's passed between Cabd and me, if not more.

What are your thoughts about Jake the Wolfie?

[fferyllt]

I'm a retiree back after 2 years of not playing mafia. The FGO game was my first post-hiatus. I've never played with him. Was hoping you had.

Do I already have meta homework? This sucks.

[fferyllt]

I've got nothing to add.

Do you have an opinion about the topic of the day? Do you think it's better to work through stuff here? Go public pretty soon? Something else?

[fferyllt]

Your thoughts, ffery?

I like Taylor's paranoia. So yeah, right now he'd be my guess. I don't think Tammy has hit unreproducible town notes, but I like her energy so far.

It's really early days, though.

[fferyllt]

FoS ffery for ignoring my question in the main thread

That was a serious question? Lemme go answer it then!

[fferyllt]

Your thoughts, ffery?

I like Taylor's paranoia. So yeah, right now he'd be my guess. I don't think Tammy has hit unreproducible town notes, but I like her energy so far.

It's really early days, though.

he being jake here?

Yah. I'm not ready to lock that in as a read, though. We were bouncing off walls by the time he showed up and that's not an easy way to enter a neighborhood.

[fferyllt]

Your thoughts, ffery?

I like Taylor's paranoia. So yeah, right now he'd be my guess. I don't think Tammy has hit unreproducible town notes, but I like her energy so far.

It's really early days, though.

I like this thought on me. Anything stronger would have me bouncing off a paranoia wall right about now. I suspect nacho is probably the only person who’d be able to identify an unreoroducible town behavior and even then we’re he in the game maybe not.

I will say though that I’m not the same player I was, and hope to never be parts of that player again, so if you’re looking for the tells people used to look for and try to get out of me, that’s probably and hopefully not gonna happen.

The part that hasn’t changed for me toooo much is the way I process the game and the people in it. If you’re looking for things in that vein, then you’ll probably see that once my wheels start turning. I mean I hope.

I pretty much never go into a game wanting to get those kinds of tells out of you. Sometimes it happens, and vice versa in terms of provoking the kinds of tells that Empire reads me by, but I don't feel like either one of us sets out to play that way. Paranoia, irritability, misunderstandings, etc. That shit happens.

Hopefully not in this game!

[fferyllt]

Should we all vote as an entire block?

Let's each vote as our spirits move us.

[fferyllt]

That was an FGO reference!

[fferyllt]

I don't know Sir Cakez well. Pretty sure this is the first game I've played with him, but I helped Brassherald out modding a couple games when he needed a few days off, and Sir Cakez was scum in one of those games. His posts felt so shallow in that game compared to here. This is way too unresearched to be a full-on meta-read, but I think he's town.

Have any of you played with him?

[fferyllt]

Send help. I can't stop crumbing. It's like 7 years worth of pent up crumbing are all happening in one game.

[fferyllt]

He did ask me if I'm in a neighborhood with syry.

[fferyllt]

Yeah, it was last night.

[fferyllt]

That wasn't to him, and unless he's REALLY on the ball (or is in a dethy of his own if my paranoid pregame vision is real) I doubt that registered. It was just a general crumb out there for future reference. Not that I expect we wouldn't be believed without a crumb, if we decide the dethy needs to be outed.

[fferyllt]

169 means something specific but that ain't it.

I'd just tell you, but you know, traitor in the dethy.

[fferyllt]

pretty sure Jake is our traitor

[fferyllt]

I just really didn't like his posts from this morning. It's not a meta thing.

I feel like it shouldn't be pursued this game day, but on the other hand I'd love to have a masonry more than I'd love to sort out who's the sane and who's the insane cop.

[fferyllt]

Yeah. By the end of day 1, after leading the katsuki wagon, I thought our megahood was all town. Then we died on N1.

This is not the same. Also, whether he's town or scum if he gets pressured enough the dethy will revealed. That's what happened in Death's Diner. The traitor started pushing him in the dethy QT, and the 3 other town bought in enough that he was getting run up. That's how of any of us, town or scum would react.

I'd have a hard time seeing the dethy as a pro-town organization if I were being run up by my neighbors, and I'd expect my flip to mean the next day the dethy would scumhunt itself even harder. At which point I'd probably see more town utility in knowing this huge piece of the game design.

[fferyllt]

I was trying to tease Cabd into revealing if they were implicitly scum and if they knew of a traitor.

This will never work on a player like Cabd.

But, he'll probably speculate a great deal about your post. And he's probably going to ask me about you, which will be fun!

The only thing that might save you from that kind of scrutiny is his current fixation on Bell.

[fferyllt]

I mean, you guys already think I'm probably the scum here, so it's not like I'm going to ask for help.

I don't plan to push you in the game thread today. As long as the dethy has a chance to work as an actual dethy, that won't change.

Also, I could be wrong about you.

[fferyllt]

Which reminds me: How are we going to figure out who is
what?

Five investigations on the same player yield 5 results:

paranoid cop - always guilty
naive cop - always inno
insane cop - opposite of alignment
sane cop - actual alignment
rolecop - makes something up.

There will be 3 results that are the same, and one of those three is the traitor-rolecop. We go from 5 with the potential of being a traitor to 3.

If we also get a flip, then we start to narrow down which cop is sane and which is insane. (this would not happen in a game consisting only in a dethy).

lather, rinse, repeat and we eventually have enough data to solve the dethy. Meanwhile the game goes on, which impacts what we learn and potentially how many of us are still here to figure things out.

[fferyllt]

What are you trying to learn from his thoughts on Syr?

pedit mindmeld!

[fferyllt]

I'd like to hear more about what your thoughts were.

[fferyllt]

someday I will get through an entire mafia game without a meta dive.

it is not this day.

[fferyllt]

I have a feeling it's going to be more gricks. lots more gricks.

[fferyllt]

but hey if our damn elf quits being all leroy jenkins every time we find a secret alcove, I'll take the gricks.

[fferyllt]

I need some advice. I'm hoping to not have to go there, but I dunno. Jake, your play leaves you pretty vulnerable to elim.

If the Jake noise picks up speed I'm going to want to snuff it out.

I'm thinking that I'll state that I have reason to believe he'll be mechanically sorted fairly quickly and I would prefer that to eliming him.

If I do it smartly, I think I'll probably get some protection on N1, or that scum might assume I will.

Thoughts?

If this picks up steam, the alternative is to just go ahead and out the dethy and go for a dwindling masonry. I don't think there's a way that Jake gets run up and the dethy doesn't get exposed.

Maybe as an initial slow-it-down I announce I've got some jake games I want to meta later tonight.

[fferyllt]

that early looks kinda town for the paranoia in the neighborhood has worn off

Not sure what you mean by this?

[fferyllt]

Question me?

I remember a moment of "Syry isn't townreading me omg" in the FGO game. It was a false alarm, but still! Nothing you've posted at me in this game has given me that kind of startle. Did I miss something?

[fferyllt]

I feel ultra shitty this game. No scumreads, bunch of town leans, nobody's figured out I'm fucking town yet. Except ffery. Like seriously the fuck am I even doing here

I hope this is just a mood

I felt like this a lot during FGO. Buncha townreads shading off into POE land after we elimed Archer. The game firmed up eventually.

[fferyllt]

No. I said I'd feel dumb if he's right about Bell.

And I would.

Very dumb.

[fferyllt]

I'd be townbinning you a lot harder if I didn't want you getting nk'd!

I think Cabd's kinda smudging his read of me for similar reasons.

[fferyllt]

Pooky has stolen my heart with that line about the greatest team of shitposters ever assembled.

[fferyllt]

I did too, but that put a big smile on my face. I've been wanting to slow down and talk to him but the game really rushes along.

[fferyllt]

jake im fine with duking it out with you, but for at least today lets do it in this thread please. ive been pulling my punches on you (as in not even throwing them) in the main thread.

This.

It's probably going to give me a bad case of hives defending a ~scumread~ today so please don't dig yourselves deep holes.

[fferyllt]

And I'm not.

I don't think this is a good idea, but I kinda like that you're bucking the trend here.

[fferyllt]

halfway through my reread of the game and I'm liking Tayl0r less and Jake more.

My head hurts.

[fferyllt]

FGO was a cohort-ish game that wasn't all that cohorty. I assumed I didn't know the majority of players. certainly didn't recognize some of them.

[fferyllt]

Got a little side tracked from sleep by looking a bit back at diamond sentinel in cyberpunk. Gonna look back at it tomorrow.

Ffery what do you think balance looks like here?

We have 17 players which I would normally assume 4, but I can’t imagine that it would be 3 plus a traitor, so is it possible 4 plus traitor?

I’m asking mostly because I was looking at the playerlist to see if there was someone I was forgetting and if there was anyone I’m actively suspicious of. And I was noticing that I have some townish pings for a lot.

Anyway hopefully gonna fall asleep now and hopefully reread tomorrow.

Kinda think it’s just Taylor here? Don’t know if it just annoyance with the approach

I think 3 plus traitor(s?) may be about right. Depends on the number and sizes of neighborhoods.

With 3 old timers in this neighborhood, there's a fair amount of sortable content about us that is happening here and not in the game thread. And I think that's affecting the health of the town to some degree. Which is starting to make me feeling like blowing the lid off in the not too distant future might be good for town health.

I have thoughts about some other neighborhood compositions based on the in-thread content. There has to be an incentive for not claiming those hood(s?), too, or I feel like they'd be starting to trickle into the game publicly.

I wish this were a safe place to air out my thoughts on the game design and the game thread undercurrents, but this is the world we live in.

[fferyllt]

I feel like if someone from this neighborhood is on the chopping block today, then we need to out it so that the whole town can take into account the dethy composition, and think about who could be a traitor, not a generic scum player.

Once one of us flips, it's public knowledge there's a dethy anyway.

[fferyllt]

So I didn't do a fine tooth comb thing with those games you linked Syr but I did my usual textual body language thing.

Despite the VC his play here reads and feels more like his town game than his most recent scum game.

The first newbie game is just different from everything else and probably not much to get from it.

I can go into more detail here if you want it, but I was already feeling kinda town on him.

In the game thread, I want Cabd to go first. Just from a post he made asking Jake a question early today, I'm pretty sure he read the games and I think he also leans town.

[fferyllt]

Yeah, I'm feeling pretty sad because I love playing with bell, but he's not looking real town here.

His questions to me that weren't just "o...kay?" all pointed at cabd and to a MUUUUUCH lesser extent you.

[fferyllt]

a full night's sleep sounds amazing!

[fferyllt]

I know it's a toss-up whether building a quotewall is easier or harder to process than a bunch of links. But, when you're asking questions about or replying to the posts it's a hell of a lot easier to follow along with quotes rather than links.

Tammy probably disagrees!

[fferyllt]

I think I was working on mine before he did a reformatted post. I quoted my part of the post and added post tags myself, and then used the post preview to navigate to them.

[fferyllt]

Yeah, I'm feeling pretty sad because I love playing with bell, but he's not looking real town here.

His questions to me that weren't just "o...kay?" all pointed at cabd and to a MUUUUUCH lesser extent you.

Yeah it feels like an attempt to play into your Cabd paranoia except he doesn't know you and Cabd already have each other as pretty solid town
He probably isn't bothering with me because he knows you already have me as locktown and he remembers FGO

There are moments when bell looks okay. His style feels natural enough, but there's no substance.

I don't know how much I can express how much I hated with a fire of a thousand suns that I hated that catch up post.

Yeah I read about 3/4 of it but it was legit terrible and I feel like a copy of it should be posted on the wiki under "How not to post as scum"

Even if he's town that damn thing was a monstrosity and hard to read

I'm not sure he's trying to play into my paranoia so much as he's trying to sort Cabd and is ticked off a little because he wasn't around to steer the reads list interaction between us. He thinks Cabd could tailor his list to either agree with or push against mine and therefore reinforce or cast doubt on my reads.

That's something I do if I'm trusting him for town and also feeling like his grasp of the game is better than mine in a particular moment or wrt a particular player. And that's my choice and my decision.

I guess that's what's bothering me a little. I feel like Bell is trying to be a puppeteer, and use me as a way to get a read on Cabd by shaping my play to draw Cabd out, if that makes sense. Maybe he's not actually trying to do that, and my sensors are malfunctioning.

I'm playing up my caginess about Cabd a little while at the same time trying to work with him and that could be causing some whiplash. I should probably drop the caginess. We're past that stage for now.

[fferyllt]

Or, Bell isn't trying to get a read on Cabd, but trying to drive a wedge between us and keep us from working together effectively.

Hmm

[fferyllt]

He does take odd (to me) angles sometimes, Syr. His unhappiness with how I approached sharing reads lists was so freakin transparent that I have a really hard time seeing that come from scum-Bell.

I think he has concerns that he might not be able to catch scum-Cabd? Maybe I'm misremembering that.

[fferyllt]

I have stuff to say once this is a masonry!

Time to blow the lid off?

[fferyllt]

Now for the deafening silence

[fferyllt]

If you're town then your play both in this neighborhood and in the game thread has been awful, speaking of disrespectful. Especially here.

If you're the traitor, and I feel very sure you are, you could have had 3 players who have become influential in the game working hard to prevent your elim today. That was a missed opportunity for you, but I'm ok with it!

[fferyllt]

my nahdia read is mostly "where the fuck is nahdia?" They aren't totally ignoring the game, but I feel like they're interacting with such a tiny slice of it, if that makes sense.

That may have been the most limp scumread anyone has ever expressed about me. And then practically zero follow-up. I've posted shittons from which they could have either built a case, decided I'm town or thrown up their hands and asked "wtf is this??"

They did none of that.

[fferyllt]

So, I'm going to revise my protection request and say that if Tayl0r flips town, then don't protect me.

My reasoning:
- me outing the dethy could be construed as (and maybe is!) anti-town.
- scum probably won't want to zorch me for that reason (and maybe thinking I could be the traitor)
- Except when I get into paranoid freakout mode (which I've been keeping strictly internal), you and Tammy are my conftown mason buddies and I want you both alive day 2. I don't think a scumteam in its right mind would shoot Jake tonight.

[fferyllt]

Damn I want my masonry.

[fferyllt]

No. Eavesdropper role isn't bastard.

[fferyllt]

The day 1 elim is where the perfect, the merely good, and the beginning of a terrible ride to hell collide as probabilities.

Which is why I'm usually so paralyzed as day 1 winds down.

[fferyllt]

I feel so let down.

[fferyllt]

FUCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

MASONS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[fferyllt]

JAKE! <3 Welcome to not-elimed-land!

[fferyllt]

OK!

Cabd is in a neighborhood, I'm pretty sure. I think s_s and maybe midwaybear are also in it, despite midwaybear saying he's lonely or w/e.

He confused me a little with that popsicle sticks thing. It sounds like he might also be a neighborizer of some sort. Which is why I say "pretty sure"

At one point I thought he was crumbing vig at me, but now I think I'm wrong about that.

the dreaming thing harks back to a Ceph game. I'll link it in a bit.

[fferyllt]

the dreaming thing was sort of like a semi-commute, but if scum also commuted that night they could kill one of the dreamers.

Most of town with the dreaming ability were smart enough to STAY THE FUCK AWAKE at night.

[fferyllt]

Cabd is a loveriser ffery

I'm pretty sure that hood he's in is a mess of them

Possibly millers too

Yeah likely. Or maybe a weak neighborizer.

[fferyllt]

Cabd is a loveriser ffery

I'm pretty sure that hood he's in is a mess of them

Possibly millers too

BTW this is a fucking awesome reason to have outed the dethy!

[fferyllt]

How about those shitty 2012s?

I remember the days when shitty 2012s/13s were shitty because we were a cocky bunch of newbs with delusions of grandeur

[fferyllt]

Let's make sure we're allowed to self-cop.

If not we can chain-cop each other.

[fferyllt]

Guys I am so proud of us! We've already done about 500% better than the Death's Diner dethy did. By the time the traitor was eliminated in that game, the cops were already pretty decimated. We got neither the advantage of a fuckton of masons nor the advantage of even a single bank-it cop result.

[fferyllt]

You started the ball rolling with your vote, so the timing was all you.

[fferyllt]

If I'm dead tomorrow please tell s_s how much I love this post.

Subject: Smoke-Filled Antechamber [Night 1]

That was probably intentional.

i can actually see taylor doing that because she's a massive shitposting troll

i find it less likely she does it when she's an actual traitor

y'all need to shut up, I was obviously trying to get Tayl0r to clarify without letting her know what I was looking for.

Okay Tayl0r if it wasn't an accident why did you do it then?

[fferyllt]

It's a perfect paraphrase of "Stop stomping through my line of questioning with your hobnail boots".

[fferyllt]

I think we should keep it in the masonry.

Thinking about Cabd's crumbs, I think his loverize is reflexive.

[fferyllt]

I'll target Jake because damn that guy is soooooo scum!

[fferyllt]

Though. Is it bastard if someone gets access to a neighborhood but the occupants aren't told?

I feel like this would be a really unfair design. The dethy clears itself of the traitor and get an invisible eavesdropper instead?

Maybe that's a thing someone would design but I don't think I'm going to worry about it being a possibility.

[fferyllt]

He does take odd (to me) angles sometimes, Syr.

His unhappiness with how I approached sharing reads lists was so freakin transparent that I have a really hard time seeing that come from scum-Bell.

I think he has concerns that he might not be able to catch scum-Cabd? Maybe I'm misremembering that.

I saw the one liner to you and one liner to himself regarding this in his catchup post. Unless you've got other sources I'm missing I think the bolded is a significant overstatement

I'm not sure how to put this. I do read a lot into the tone of posts, especially by people I have experience with. In a lot of my interactions with Bell-Avenger in FGO I felt like I was being weighed in the balance. And when he thought he'd found something potentially scummy he pounced. I remember his reaction when he thought he'd found a disconnect between my feeling like I might not be in the game all that much longer and my bookmarking posts for future reference so I could find them again after the game ended. There was just so much intensity in his phrasing.

It wasn't suspicion, but I felt a lot of intensity in the phrasing about why my going first to talk about reads was not optimal in terms of reading Cabd via his readslist.

[fferyllt]

I'm not sure I want to save him right now.

Have you reread the thread from page 63 where we outed the dethy through to the end?

I've read through it a couple times tonight trying to figure out how I feel about how people reacted.

Gamma just doing his Mastina-style catchup where he replies to one post after another from several pages back and payed no attention to what was happening in real time kinda bugs me. I'm going to want to see similar behavior as town in situations where a wagon was about to go through

Pooky veeerrrrryyyyy slowly went from "town trolling" to "ok yeah, scum", but didn't change his vote. I'm not sure this was scummy?

midwaybear didn't seem very cool with the wagon at first, and didn't interact directly with Taylor at all.

Diamond was similar. argued with me about whether Tayl0r was more scummy than Jake. And then just kinda popped up and voted once the tipping point had been reached.

I liked how petapan, bulge and s_s interacted with us. bulge didn't really interact with tayl0r, seemed more concerned about determining if the dethy was a real thing and that the other 4 members would be for sure confirmed town, and why Tammy was worried about a second traitor. Buuuut, if he's scum and knew there was a likelihood that the people he was squinting at were going to be confirmed town shortly that seems like an odd direction to push.

I'm really confused by Bell. How proactive was he during the mr toads wild ride phase? Did he seem to be observational and floating along?

Cabd, given it's Cabd with all the footnotes and caveats, looked town as fuck to me.

[fferyllt]

I'm really confused by Bell. How proactive was he during the mr toads wild ride phase? Did he seem to be observational and floating along?

Rereading, I feel like he did go after Tayl0r proactively

[fferyllt]

If I'm alive tomorrow the first thing I'm going to ask cabd about is his Gamma read, and hit him with the mastina catchup if he says town.

If I'm dead, please do that for me.

[fferyllt]

Is this Cabd not believing it's a dethy?

Subject: Smoke-Filled Antechamber [Night 1]

is there reason to believe there might be a traitor and a fullscum in that group, rather than having a 4 person masonry as soon as the dethy resolves? anyone can answer but im maiy asking i guess from a 1) balance pov and 2) WWFGD

>0% chance, highly doubt a giant masonry is gonna go down.

I think it's not understanding what a dethy is. He changed his tune.

[fferyllt]

Subject: Smoke-Filled Antechamber [Night 1]

Deathy plox aim elsewhere to calibrate kthnx.

Why do you think he suggested this?

I think he crumbed that he's a reflexive loverizer to Syr. He'd already crumbed loverizer at me (the Andy stuff), and I misinterpreted.

[fferyllt]

I saw it more as "you" being someone who targets him.

and "people" maybe being a prescribed list of potential loverees (his neighborhood?)

Or maybe dreamwalkers (someone with night action) are the potential loverees?

[fferyllt]

anyway, dreamwalker felt like a really strong warn-off to me.

[fferyllt]

Oh also Bell going to take a nap mid end of day wagon looks hella sus too

why would scum-Bell announce that?

[fferyllt]

I'm picturing that scum-bell would be pissed af that tayl0r screwed up this bad. His interactions with Tayl0r don't feel that way.

otoh he might have been the elim had the day gone otherwise, though petapan I think had the 2nd most votes at the time. Bell was getting tunneled by Cabd, though, who already had most of the cohort convinced to vote Bell?

[fferyllt]

and by cohort I mean fgo-related, not 2012/2013.

It's blowing me away to be treated like an old fart in this game!

[fferyllt]

Subject: Smoke-Filled Antechamber [Night 1]

VoteCount 1.10

petapan [1] - Tammy

Gamma Emerald [1] - Jake The Wolfie
Nahdia [1] - Alisae

Tayl0r Swift [9] - SirCakez, Gamma Emerald, fferyllt, Cabd, Something_Smart, midwaybear, Syryana, DiamondSentinel, petapan [Execute]

petapan [2] - PookyTheMagicalBear, Bell

PookyTheMagicalBear [1] - Nahdia

Not Voting [2]

- The Bulge, Tayl0r Swift

With 17 alive it takes 9 votes to be executed.

Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2020-10-16 20:35:31)

It was this way for several vcs. I let it ride to see if anyone else noticed or cared.

[fferyllt]

I'm not sold on Diamond Sentinal town, especially given he kept pushing Jake after the dethy was outed and we'd all come out agreeing Tayl0r was scum.

[fferyllt]

That's about where I am.

I got pissed when DS asked me about reads on lower content players, and not the ones I was interacting with, and then Cakez called my "protoreads" scummy and then doing nothing else. I was going to bash him in the head about that but then he said it wasn't a big enough ping to go after me and asked me about yeast price fixing cartels instead!

[fferyllt]

Why would EITHER Bell?

And which is more likely to be the Bell we're dealing with?

If I'm alive, I'll probably come out voting either Bell or Gamma to start with.

Maybe some serious pressure will break the glass on wherever Bell's storing his towniness. Maybe pressure not doing that will make me considerably more comfortable about eliming him than I am right now.

[fferyllt]

Bell's been on the back foot most of this game and even finding out the dethy was about to confirm 2 of his favorite players as town didn't seem to entice him much

I'm still laughing at how he tied our iso questions together and said you were being pretty but not much else by page 40 and that I'd done fuck-all by then.

[fferyllt]

Also.

This game is

SO

FAR

OFF

from my usual town meta (if usual even applies after not playing for years) that I'm going to have some really shitty town games until people calibrate what's my norm.

Including me. I need to calibrate that, too!

[fferyllt]

Yeah, Nahdia's on my short list too.

I need a grpscum flip before I feel comfortable trying to teamsolve.

[fferyllt]

That is the face of an Andy who gives absolutely not one fuck.

[fferyllt]

Beautiful phrasing <3

Do you think there might be value in having Jake target Cabd at some point?

Too early to say. I think you mentioned miller, and that could be a reason to warn us off if I'm wrong about him not having complete control of what happens to his loverize.

One in-masonry read will jumpstart this thanks to the Great Purge.

One out read of a scumread even if we don't get a flip quickly would still potentially pinpoint which of our results change. Results that change are either the sane or insane cop. Results that are identical to night 1 reads are townreads.

Does that make sense?

[fferyllt]

Beautiful phrasing <3

Do you think there might be value in having Jake target Cabd at some point?

Too early to say. I think you mentioned miller, and that could be a reason to warn us off if I'm wrong about him not having complete control of what happens to his loverize.

One in-masonry read will jumpstart this thanks to the Great Purge.

One out read of a scumread even if we don't get a flip quickly would still potentially pinpoint which of our results change. Results that change are either the sane or insane cop. Results that are identical to night 1 reads are townreads.

Does that make sense?

The great purge <3

Yes, and I perfectly agree. I was actually suggesting Jake investigate Cabd at some point for other reasons. It may be in our best interest to tie Jake to Cabd as a lover.

Based on how Cabd described it, he's the officiant, not the betrothed. So Jake might be tied to some other player altogether.

[fferyllt]

I love that disagreements and different interpretations of stuff here doesn't tweak my paranoia. We're just solving up in here and it's amazing!

[fferyllt]

Hey jake!

Who are you going to cop?

ffery --> Jake
Tammy --> Syr
Syr --> Tammy
Jake --> ??

Doesn't really matter who, we are all the same alignment. Just want to document it.

Someone should probably announce tomorrow that we did inside-the-neighborhood investigations tonight, but do NOT mention what the specific results were. We don't want to help scum figure out which of us are useful cops.

[fferyllt]

I'm obsessively rereading.

This made me laugh

People scumreading me probably don't realize that the gatekeeper of hell herself has endorsed me getting to Day three before everything breaks down.

[fferyllt]

Subject: Smoke-Filled Antechamber [Night 1]

Only 19 pages left...

Shhhh Cabd. I am basking. Do you hear that? That’s the sound of people playing mafia.

I like this, too.

[fferyllt]

FFery's Day 2 Agenda

• Investigate s_s's reads list format. Ask Cabd if he usually formats them this way. I don't remember seeing anything like this the last time I meta'd him.
  
• Gamma Emerald's mastina style catchup during mr toad's wild ride. He made one post where it seemed he was aware that the day could end abruptly. Why didn't he engage with that? Why was a post-by-post catchup more important?
  
• What was Diamond Sentinel doing once he realized he wasn't going to convince players to focus on Jake instead of Tayl0r?
  
• Get a discussion going on whether anything else pinged from page 63 onward?
  
• Current other players of interest: Bell (more to come), Nahdia, Alisae

Players of Interest

• Bell - so much cagier around me than I think is warranted in this game. He seems super-concerned about his ability to recognize scum-Cabd. WHY? (also, learn to bullet)
  
• Nadhia - The spoiler about their shitty week in the argument with petapan got me right in the feels. But, I still have issues about their lack of (or extremely hands-off level of) engagement
  
• Alisae - could just be me not paying attention but I feel like he's been pretty uninvolved beyond that huge go at Jake early on.

Cabd's huge neighborhood

possible composition: some of s_s, midway bear, gamma, alisae, peta? (throwing him in because it would explain Cabd not poking at him much)

I expect him to out what's going on with his neighborhood/role pretty quickly on day 2 since he said our dethy needed to resolve first. Push him on this if it doesn't happen, but if he says it's premature I'd take him at his word unless he really starts throwing his weight around in the event I'm dead. I feel like I've kinda been low-key keeping him from running the game if that's what he wanted to do. OTOH I don't think he was trying to shut me down at all (nor I him) or try to spin narratives for me, and I feel like he'd do at least a little of that if he's scum.

Also planning to set up an "apologies here" booth regarding the pushback on some of my reads.

[fferyllt]

One more thing I meant to add: I recommend not telling the game anything about the sanities we figure out about ourselves. Just out guilties/innos once we have them.

[fferyllt]

What seemed off about s_s reads list?

The format. I don't really have an issue with the reads, themselves. Though I thought it was interesting that he had tayl0r as scum but had the rest of the dethy as mild townreads. It makes sense on the face of it, I guess, but given how much he was pushing tayl0r it seemed to me he could have taken more of a stance on the rest of us.

I don't remember seeing him format a reads list this way in the games I meta'd. From what I saw, he generally leaves out nulls and just posts about who he's townreading and who he's scumreading. Cabd mentioned a new s_s meta tell during this game, though, so he's done more recent meta-ing than I have.

[fferyllt]

Should we all target the same person N2 or different people? I'm leaning same person but could be swayed.

I think we should all target the same player on N2 for calibration purposes, but I'm probably not thinking deeply enough. Maybe there's a good argument for spreading out? the naive and paranoid should continue to get results like they did n1. the insane and sane could get different results if they investigate scum.

[fferyllt]

Who bells the cat?

Subject: Smoke-Filled Antechamber [Night 1]

Is that accurate FF?

Subject: Smoke-Filled Antechamber [Night 1]

Is that accurate FF?

Specifically what are you asking if it's accurate?

Subject: Smoke-Filled Antechamber [Night 1]

Is that accurate FF?

Specifically what are you asking if it's accurate?

17.6% or 23.5% outside versus 20% inside.
What's the rationale behind each player's approach inside of the QT versus out of it?

This is an example of the sorts of disconnects I keep having with bell. He refers back to a post without context and I can't tell if it's my most recent post or something earlier, or if it's a reference to a post I didn't make. In this case I think he asking me if his post about the dethy composition was accurate, and then he went off on an analysis of whether the odds of hitting scum were better, generically, by eliming within the dethy versus outside of it.

Maybe it's a me issue? I had no idea that he was trying to confirm something we'd already posted about what a dethy is.

-----------------------

I'm going through Bell posts in the time remaining. With this one, I want some help calibrating if the communication problem is on my end and not his. I'll hopefully not post a lot of random shit in here until I've composed a wall.

Or would random shit be preferable to a wall? Might be easier to respond to if you have comments?

[fferyllt]

Tammy, I think you called this out earlier.

Subject: Smoke-Filled Antechamber [Night 1]

Why do people keep thinking I say things if I don't expect a response to it.

Subject: Smoke-Filled Antechamber [Night 1]

I will literally never get anything done this game if I answer every question posed to me.

These two posts hit the thread within 5 minutes of each other.

Beyond the contradiction itself, why does scum-Bell allow himself to post this.

It fits the confused, distracted, maybe real life is kicking his butt Bell that we seem to be playing with here, Why isn't his self-censor is at least a little online if he is scum?

[fferyllt]

Subject: Smoke-Filled Antechamber [Night 1]

It's explicitly not just for me, otherwise I wouldn't have posted it.

who asked for a votecount?

No one.

Oh yeah thats right, no one asked.
But yet you felt like the gamestate needed a votecount for who god knows what reason?
Sounds like you're tryin to look town > actually being town dude.

Then why isn't your vote on me?

becuase I was waiting for your reaction
tbh the reaction I was expecting if ur town was to just double down on it so I wasn't expecting this.
I'll have to think about what this reaction tells me later

VOTE: alisae

Bonk

Subject: Smoke-Filled Antechamber [Night 1]

VOTE: Bell
Why?

Because something something Sword of Damocles something something.

Over whose head does the sword dangle? Contextually, Alisae, but the metaphor doesn't really fit? Maybe: Alisae is pressuring Jake (e.g., the ruler's cruelty that leads to uneasy heads under crowns), but when e admittedly doesn't get the reaction e thought would signify town, e shows mercy? and that's something town-Alisae would not do?

halp!

[fferyllt]

maybe you're right about the drugs! Re midway's reaction to Bell's Alisae vote, he says this:

Subject: Smoke-Filled Antechamber [Night 1]

Read eir post.

Seems fine with me

That’s cool. Why doesn’t it bother you that they expected town you to respond like this but you responded like this instead and therefore
?

This reads like he thinks Alisae attacked midway, not Jake. Midway and alisae did go back and forth on Alisae's Jake push, but midway was the aggressive one in that convo, not Alisae.

[fferyllt]

Subject: Smoke-Filled Antechamber [Night 1]

This lack of genuine conversation just makes it hard to find a solid tell on people.

Not everyone has been roleplaying and doing stuff like that
Any thoughts on the dynamic between Cabd, fferylt, Tammy, and Syryana or is it similarly unreadable to you like the roleplay? Also, let me know what you think about SirCakez

You said you expected midwaybear to double down as town but when he didn’t you said you had to think about what it meant instead.

@midway talk to me, why’re you a grumpy bear?

I'm so fucking confused. Maybe that earlier post was correctly addressed to midway.

It was a little after this that Bell voted midway bear, and shortly after that Cabd woke up and voted Bell, but contextually the dream may have happened before the midway vote.

So it's the Bell posts up to this point that triggered Cabd. Talking about his class, offering to townbloc with me and then not following up in any way, going after alisae and midway, being super-confusing, etc.

[fferyllt]

but contextually the dream may have happened before the midway vote.

This isn't quite right. The dream may have happened before Cabd saw and processed the midway vote.

[fferyllt]

Off the topic of Bell, but I IMMEDIATELY thought back to this post when Gamma started his mastina-style catchup.

Subject: Smoke-Filled Antechamber [Night 1]

I already regret joining this game. I gave FakeGod my word I’d stay in this, I will hunt down every single one of you who makes this harder than it has to be.

[fferyllt]

lol snap. If I didn't have mod confirmation I would have called that a HUGE thinking what I'm thinking when I'm thinking it tell.

[fferyllt]

It is interesting that midway picked us 3 plus Cabd to focus on, yeah*. Was DS already on Jake's case? I think he was. Which would basically be the whole dethy minus the traitor.

*I thought at the time that this was a neighborhood with Cabd tell. Because we should have been reasonably high on Cabd's sort priority.

It was more pronounced with DS, but we kinda did warp the game a little. It's what I meant by large neighborhoods where a big chunk of the player list is interacting outside the game has an impact on the shape of the main game thread.

(I think I actually may have coined the phrase/concept of the 2013 cohort. By mid-2013 I was starting to think of us as a gaggle of graduate students starting their masters programs in the same department at the same time.)

[fferyllt]

I haven't gone completely through the thread on Bell and probably won't finish that before day 2 starts.

This is where I'm at and what I'd want to do if I were in the game.

1. See how he enters the game thread and if he's making more sense (or I'm reading more sense) in his posts and stances
2. Before too long (enough to see if he's still really off kilter, talk to Bell about what's been going on in his head during day 1, using some of the posts I've pulled up, with the idea of deciding whether the best course of action is to yeet him or giving him some day 2 to dig himself out (possibly both!)
3. Develop a useful read
4. Gauge Cabd's approach/reaction to bell/reaction to me for a sanity check.

Right now, I feel like it's about 50-50 whether he's a mis-elim or not based on his own play. In a player list of 11 non-confirmed players the chances of him flipping scum are 1 in 7 or 8 (e.g., taking out my strong-ish townreads from the remainder).

[fferyllt]

I was feeling kinda like petapan hadn't interacted with me much on day 1, and it's because he hasn't. But apparently he had me as town? Certainly by the time he and Cabd were comparing notes on reads. Maybe before then.

Anyway, he's not a townbloc-ing sort of player, at least with semi-randos.

His willingness to interact with someone he's not scumreading (Cabd) is one of the reasons why I think there miiiiiiggghhht be a neighborhood connection. otoh he's joked around a bit with you as well, Syr. Maybe I haven't been all that friendly.

[fferyllt]

I think I've been approachable, but not all that great at approaching every player, myself (too focused on the dethy and trying to absorb all the stuff Cabd was trying to tell me). I think I was actually more approachable in the FGO game (but also unknown/unrecognized to most of the player list). But I've been pretty srsbsns and "gotta effort" due to our roles.

[fferyllt]

divide and conquer is also a thing!

[fferyllt]

Ask bell whose head the sword was dangling over!

[fferyllt]

Fuck.

Syr </3

[fferyllt]

Jake's mafia guys. We got a problem!

I'm either paranoid or insane. But we all knew that.

[fferyllt]

So you got an inno result?

[fferyllt]

We're not saying what ANY of us got back tonight and not speculating on Syr's sanity in the game thread.

[fferyllt]

Do we want to explain that we know via the modpost that there are one of each of the sanities?

I think it would be ok not to answer that question definitively for now.

[fferyllt]

yeah. I like his list.

I'm starting to feel paranoid about cabd.

[fferyllt]

Paranoia alert downgraded to background noise.

[fferyllt]

Tammy, I know you want to take a slow approach to developing reads, so I don't want to pressure you at all in the game thread. Please tell me here if you don't want to get into it in the game thread, if you think the solve is problematic or if we're being way too complacent about the game have 2 masonries plus the dethy.

[fferyllt]

I like what's happening in the game thread with Cabd and me not posting.

[fferyllt]

Bell asked about mass claim, so he may have some sort of role.

Cabd/Something_Special are miller/lovers/novice vig, so N2 is the first chance they get to vig someone.

My strong townreads are: petapan, sir cakez.

I had midway bear in this tier because I thought Cabd had him so high in his reads list because midway was also in that neighborhood. But he's not.

since the lovers both die, I'm counting them as 1 player each for figuring out how good our solve has to be.

By that notation right now, we have 5 masons, and I have 2 strong town reads, leaving 8 unsorted players 3 of which are scum.

[fferyllt]

What do you think about Nahdia? (My autocorrect sucks and keeps changing the spelling of their name)

I haven't gone to read back, but their not knowing about the dethy felt somewhat genuine in the moment when I read it. Not sure if they're one for attempting dumbtelling as scum. I'll have to see how I feel about it when I reread from start of day.

It does feel like Diamond Sentinel is focusing on names given to him and that feels just wrong. Day one he kept talking about us after midway asked him if he was having trouble reading us, and then I asked him about Nahdia and he's started to focus there. It's entirely possible this is coincidence! His scumhunting is super shallow, but I don't really expect too much more depth from him. Doesn't make him town though.

I like Nadhia's day 2 content a lot better than day 1.

Does it seem at all odd that Nahdia focused on both of us on day 1, but didn't seem to care about the two players we were interacting with in odd ways? Or at least I was. Cabd and Syr.

[fferyllt]

Bulge still doesn't have any readable content.

I still like the way he went about getting info about the dethy, though maybe that makes sense for scum to do, also.

I believe him about real life issues keeping him from getting into the game. There's a certain level of lurking that can work out for a scum player, but he's gone way below that. Which leaves me worried about content.

I mean, I could try what I did with DS? Reach out directly and ask how he's coming along with reads. -- I'll do this.

Yeah, it's awesome not having to be paranoid in here!

[fferyllt]

(NY 169 Cabd was a mason lol. I know think? that he wasn't crumbing that and that the the 169/167 referenced NY games, but I chuckled.)

I brought up "169 reasons why your town", which has been his way of declaring masonries/my way of asking if he's confirmed town. He replied with the pizza comment, and I thought that was a vig crumb based on the same game. I was right! I didn't really get the 167 reference aside from "probably something about NY167". But, one of the outstanding features of that game was Ceph's play as a vig. He has a very recognizable (to me, anyway) vig game.

[fferyllt]

No problem.

I'm sitting here happily absorbing your thoughts!

[fferyllt]

...in what sense?

Is this their answer for what they think of DS?

I don't think they responded to DS' scum read of them. Is that different from the way they responded to pressure day one?

They reacted very differently from peta's pressure. But, town or scum, I'd react very differently to pressure from those two players.

[fferyllt]

Do you disagree with my thoughts that sir cakez and petapan seem town?

[fferyllt]

I'm not sure why I phrased that as disagree rather than agree!

[fferyllt]

Oh, I thought so too re Cabd being a millerizer/neighborizer. And then the loverizer crumb happened. I think his non-metaphor crumbs for the most part were to set other players off the trail.

[fferyllt]

he claimed now, so yeah.

Syr bought it. I was just kinda...why'd you say that out loud, but ok?

[fferyllt]

You know right after i made that post that i didn't think cakez was as town as everyone else did; that didn't feel right. or him being scum doesn't feel quite right rather.

I don't share cabd's concern? with cakez misunderstanding that cabd wasn't a millerizer neighborizer. Yes, i skimmed yesterday but i also did read cabd's mason claim and conflated the two.

i do agree that petapan seems town. i do like his work with trying out pairs and who seems likely to fit together; it's something that i can't quite do because my brain doesn't work in that way, but i've seen regfan and others do things like that with good results (and some poor results)

i mean i think in team relations, but my process is weird because my brain is weird.

I did actually kinda like him sorta suspecting me or not exactly town reading me day one. maybe a little arms crossed huff that he reads gamma's tone and lost town but was unable to read my tone at all, but i actually did not expect him to be able to town read me easily. So the suspicion i expected to come and it seemed to come at a really natural time when i kinda think it should have come.

Does that make sense?

Yeah, it does.

[fferyllt]

Hey Jake! wanna come talk about reads and stuff?

[fferyllt]

Why would he super bus Taylor as scum?

Why do you assume that he knew taylor was scum? That's not how traitors work normally.

Is this a towntell?

[fferyllt]

Is it odd that the whole player list takes three masonries/7 living masons at face value? (granted, we had to make ours a masonry)

[fferyllt]

It is a little!

I mean I keep thinking about things and how it seems consistent with their claims, but I don't post about that a lot. I guess people might be doing something similar?

I'm not sure what the possible town tell was in there. I still don't understand his hostility in that one post. But I was thinking about how he was saying that he doesn't actually have strong reads but he acts as if he does because it's the only way to get anything done in mafia. If he is trying to explain gut reads or be surer on a read than he feels, that would account for some reads logic not making sense and him feeling a bit performative overall.

I'm not sure about it as a towntell at all, but it seemed oblivious of what a huge traitor crumb tayl0r dropped early on. Yeah, it's there and it's been pointed out multiple times, but it just seems like a perspective that wouldn't come from scum.

But, I tend to focus on little mindset things like this and they don't always pan out. They're more accurate with less experienced, less tricky players.

[fferyllt]

I now also believe that Diamond Sentinel is on drugs.

QFT.

It's like I want him to be scum because holy shit, but my gut believes he's off the rails, in the weeds town.

[fferyllt]

I have done so much in-the-house pacing since late August. For a while there the only outdoor walking I did was the bare minimum I could get away with before my pup disowned me.

[fferyllt]

I feel the same about Bulge. I think it's legit to scumhunt in the people pushing him, but I also think he's a legit target (and therefore attractive to scum if he's town) due to his activity and his narrow focus

[fferyllt]

Gamma just bugs me. it's hat to explain why.

This post, for instance.

I actually think {Bell, Gamma, Peta} as a team makes a lot of sense and I feel like they all have very similar reads to each other

Why do I hard defend my theoretical buddies here rather than bus at least one, especially Bell who has been SRed out of the gate with no sign of a turnaround there

It reads as "your reason for scumreading me is a logical fallacy". There is no menu of things that scum always/never do. He repudiates the team, but it doesn't make him town.

[fferyllt]

Jake, what's your Gamma read? Do you know him well as a mafia player?

[fferyllt]

Not townreading him. his town traitor joke set me off a little, and his lack of oomph on day 2 set me off a little more.

[fferyllt]

My current thoughts on how to cop N2.

I want to pick one of the 7 players not in masonries for our group-investigate.

We know what an investigation on town looks like. If we get the same result as investigating ourselves, then we have a semi-confirmed town. There's a possibility of a godfather in the mix but that seems like a complete nerf of the dethy when we've already got 2 millers in the mix.

If we get a different result than inno-inno-guilty (or whatever it is if we lose another dethy cop overnight). then we know we've hit scum. It doesn't matter which of us got the different result, just that it's different.

[fferyllt]

If it had been a crumb, it would have been about a thousand times more elegant than tayl0r's.

You remind me how odd I thought it was that nobody followed up and tried to make me answer Alisae's question, especially since Gamma was one of the three who in-thread voiced suspicion of me.

[fferyllt]

my brain is total mush and I have another contract meeting tomorrow.

wondering how a nahdia, bulge, midwaybear solve feels

i do kinda want to go with peta's certainty on bulge

Want to throw that into the game thread? Or is ok for me to, crediting you?

[fferyllt]

I went through tayl0rs iso looking for patterns that stood out as different, and subtracting the convos with conftown, her posts to Bell and Bulge stand out as basically empty. She had much more content-ful posts with midway, ds and peta.

And she didn't mention Nahdia at all.

[fferyllt]

I think it means they're less likely scum, maybe? Though I scumread midway for his activity fall-off. I don't think Tayl0r would have called out his semi-contradictory stuff regarding a neighborhood.

[fferyllt]

I'm still kinda meh on bulge, but that may be more me not knowing how to read him than anything he's doing.

I had this vague idea that he plays with his cards close to his chest, and I don't think that's happening here, possibly because of getting pushed so hard by peta?

[fferyllt]

i'll laugh if the scum team is like ds, bell and gamma and they decided their shtick was to be really confusing all game.

Reading this made me laugh.

[fferyllt]

Not stupid!

This feels similar to the way Nahdia pushed back at petapan late day 1.

It feels almost like how I sometimes react to pushes when I'm town. "That's necessarily a town thing to do/town mindset/town whatever because I'm town and it's what I did!" I have a feeling I should ego-search "necessarily" sometime and see just how many scummy things I've justified as town because I was town! Probably half of them are in hydra posts, though so meh.

[fferyllt]

Yeah I don't see it either. But, I'm not townreading him either so not really invested in fighting this.

If you want to try and get some energy up for a Nahdia wagon, I'll help.

Same on DS.

Unpleasant game persona, and I'm trying not to ding him hard for it.

[fferyllt]

awwww sounds so cute!

I'll ask cabd to either give us a pool or tell us his pool, whichever he prefers.

[fferyllt]

I feel like he's going to be a mis-elim, but I hope I'm wrong.

I really don't like Cakez' recent posts, but I guess they're justified? AFAICT I'm the only "conftown" not happy with this wagon.

[fferyllt]

I guess I'll go vote.

[fferyllt]

You sound like per-caffienated me!

[fferyllt]

Tammy are you ready to end this day? I expected Bulge to return by now. :/

[fferyllt]

I dunno? maybe give it a little? convo amongst the non-confirmed is great! It's why I've wanted to lower my voice and impact this game day.

[fferyllt]

Yeah.

I'd consider voting nahdia. I really don't think Bulge is scum.

[fferyllt]

be still my beating heart!

[fferyllt]

Why have we never been masons before?!?

[fferyllt]

You're being scummoned...

Jake, too.

[fferyllt]

that's fine with me.

midway is casting asparagus at the "conftown".

[fferyllt]

We weren't masons on day 1. We had to make our masonry.

[fferyllt]

I'm not really scumreading him. he's not conftown. If there is scum on the Gamma wagon he's it. But, I don't think there's scum on the gamma wagon.

I'm acknowledging that I'm not infallible. I could be wrong about Bulge. He's not my strongest townread at all. Gamma and Nahdia both bug me more than he does.

[fferyllt]

It's just really weird to me that no conftown are on the Bulge wagon, and I wonder if having that additional channel of info -- how the non-conftown are reading each other is the reason why, or if the wagon has a significant scum presence.

As things stand, the Gamma wagon, if he's town, is not going to tell us shit.

[fferyllt]

I'm going to put a paraphrase of this into the game thread.

[fferyllt]

If we're wrong, we're wrong. At least we'll have more data. tayl0rs flip was annoying in that regard.

poor petapan. so close, and yet so far.

[fferyllt]

I'm thinking about voting bulge.

I hate gamma's 3933, though. It feels slimy and I didn't unvote him for his AtE.

[fferyllt]

We've got 8 hours.

ugh.

[fferyllt]

Not one bit surprised about that flip.

thoughts about who to target tonight?

[fferyllt]

Cabd said his pool is {gamma, peta} if bulge town and {midway, nahdia} if bulge scum.

So theoretically midway/nahdia ok? I wish midway was in the vig-pool and I want to avoid him just in case.

I'd kinda like to target bell or cakez. Would really just like to put bell to bed one way or another and not stress about his rocky game start.

Thoughts?

[fferyllt]

Yeah I was thing calibrate on bell/ diamond sentinel something like that. The people that are just difficult to read and could end up mislynches down the road?

I don’t know what to think about peta with the way he seems to be really trying to figure out/give nahdia a pass but painted everything bulge did as scummy. I get that people confirm bias at times, but the reasoning he gave about bulges readslist was so weak. I just don’t get it. Maybe they’re all town, but it just feels wrong. And it’s not about being wrong, it’s just a lack of feeling like he was actually reading bulge.

I don’t know something just feels off about arguing that nahdia is probably town because they didn’t hammer bulge when they could have while ignoring the incredibly smarmy way they did end up on the bulge wagon.

I feel bad I lost my nerve on nahdia and that I have this stupid insane dentist anxiety which literally leaves me useless after.

I wish I had town reads in that pool I felt good about.

Expecting cabd’s shot to be blocked and at least one of the lover pairs to die though

Same, unless the two players he picked based on town-bulge are both town.

He's locked there because of us. We're locked elsewhere because of him.

This may be our one chance to get an investigation. I wish we could use it on petapan. It would be awesome to know for sure he's town if he is. And it's critical to know he's scum if he is.

Hopefully, whichever of us dies next isn't a useful cop!

I asked Fakegod to PM Jake and let him know we're in the night phase. He said "sure".

I'd rather investigate Bell than DS. DS remaining in the lim-pool feels like a healthy thing for the game. If Bell's town, I think he'll come through and get more solvey. I feel like his day 2 was a big improvement over day 1, but he's still struggling a little.

[fferyllt]

I know.

:/

How do you feel about investigating Bell tonight, given that Cabd and S_S will be targeting either Gamma or peta for a night kill?

[fferyllt]

Aaaaaah nobody's talking!

[fferyllt]

Another option?

One of you is naive and the other is sane. I think it makes sense for you two to target the same person. If one of you gets a guilty result, that person is scum and you know who who is the sane cop.

Me targeting the same player as you two doesn't provide new information about that player. I could pick someone else and if my result changes, then we know I'm insane and the player is scum. If my result doesn't change, then I'm still in question as to sanity.

The upside is that we could possibly get two useful investigations tonight.

What do you think?

[fferyllt]

Do you want us to target bell? If we both come back into on bell, it won’t resolve our sanity but it will resolve bell.

Yep! That sounds perfect.

Who do you think I should target?

[fferyllt]

Who are we relatively sure won’t get shot tonight?

Oh maybe sir cakez?

I need to think. I want to maximize the chance of getting a not-like-the-last-time result if I'm insane. :/

[fferyllt]

Cabd said his pool is {gamma, peta} if bulge town and {midway, nahdia} if bulge scum.

So theoretically midway/nahdia ok? I wish midway was in the vig-pool and I want to avoid him just in case.

I'd kinda like to target bell or cakez. Would really just like to put bell to bed one way or another and not stress about his rocky game start.

Thoughts?

I worry a little that Cabd might shoot midway, or that's who I'd want to investigate.

What do you think about the argument that scum-nahdia would have hammered bulge? I think that argument was predicated on bulge being scum.

[fferyllt]

Maybe it's more important for me to calibrate than to try to catch scum? I just feel like I'm probably the next to die just because I'm more active in the game thread.

[fferyllt]

I'll investigate Cakez unless I wake up in the middle of the night and decide I should target midway.

I feel like midway doesn't make it to exlo. Cakez might.