Bad Idea III Scum PT

[Toogeloo]

I'm not likely to be shot early. I've been gone a bit, and I really don't have many adversaries on mafiascum. I could easily make due with being a goon since I think higher profiles will be scanned before me, and cops will likely have claimed before scanning me, assuming I'm not totally obvious.

I've a history of being an idiot savant as mafia aligned.

[Toogeloo]

Don't forget the setup is:
12 Town Dayvigs
2 Town Cops
3 Mafia Goons
1 Mafia Godfather

Claiming Cops seems a bit reckless for long term survivability unless you think you aren't going to be someone around for long term anyways. In which case, claiming Cop to out the other Cops might at least garner a win. Whoever is Godfather (currently Diamond) should be claiming Day Vig though.

[Toogeloo]

Anyways, we kill as a squad, so our CD is shared. No way TSQ would keep track of that.

I read it as each of us has our own day kill, not a shared day kill. If I day kill on Day 1, I cannot day kill for at least 24 hours into Day 2, however, any of you three can day kill immediately.

@Mod: Correct me if I am wrong.

[Toogeloo]

I popped in just on a lunch break. I don't usually play more than a couple hours a day at most, but if you need me at specific times, I can try to be around. I don't intend on posting in the game for the first hour, if it manages to even stay up that long (which it won't almost assuredly).

Also, heads up, I rarely play on Friday nights and Sundays at all. Friday night is family night, so my family and I are usually playing board games and watching movies. Sundays we try to keep our online devices off.

[Toogeloo]

You could just post...

"C-C-Combo Breaker!!!"

[Toogeloo]

It might get a laugh without being too suspect.

[Toogeloo]

I'm not up to date on people's alts. The only names I recognize as possible high priority are UT and TBone. The worst is the only other town aligned player I feel is likely to town tell early, even if they tend to be overly off in their reads. Everyone else I either don't recognize, or don't feel strongly about their play to know if they should be a considered an early threat.

[Toogeloo]

Day 2 will probably be the last time a day kill can be made without heavy suspicion, but I feel like people who do Day Kills that hit town are more likely to draw Cop Scans as well.

We have a 1-in-6 shot to kill a Cop tonight. So, if we are shooting blind for Cop, we could also just pick a target none of us are associated with that won't link to kill analysis.

[Toogeloo]

I defer to the group, but let Diamond weigh in before we commit.

[Toogeloo]

For Reference...

1. Untrod Tripod

2. Murdercat - Town Day Vig

4. D3f3nd3r
5. EchoVision
7. the worst
10. T-Bone
11. brassherald
12. Micc
13. PrivateI
14. Zoraster
15. petapan
16. -hugs-
17. PokerFace

[Toogeloo]

In that case, would you please edit my post and

italicize

Murdercat lol.

[Toogeloo]

ok, your post just came right after I posted something in bold, so I thought it was a "warning." lol.

[Toogeloo]

Do you have motivation to DV UT? I think it's best if we

don't

use our DVs at all until we need them.

Let town shoot itself in the foot for a bit.

Do we want to discuss any pros and cons for UT or worst for night kill?

[Toogeloo]

Ideally, our Day Vig shots are best saved for if one of us got cop scanned that person can immediately shoot the cop in reaction.

[Toogeloo]

I'm just thinking long term. My goal is to setup Diamond with the best shot at success should town be on their A game, cops are slow playing, and we are unlucky in our night kills.

[Toogeloo]

I have no preference. Our odds of hitting a cop are the same between UT and the worst. I never take personal actions against players, that concept seems foreign to me since a grudge could cost the team a valuable role. Of course that keeps me as a relevant nobody too with no infamy to speak of lol.

[Toogeloo]

Kill: Untrod Tripod

I think there's more consensus here. I do beg you all not to be anxious to fire a Day Vig each day. Having the ability to fire early mid to late game will be a boon.

[Toogeloo]

4. D3f3nd3r - brassherald
5. EchoVision - MurderCat
7. the worst - TBone
10. T-Bone -
12. Micc - PenguinPower
13. PrivateI - Zoraster
14. Zoraster -
15. petapan - brassherald
16. -hugs- - TBone
17. PokerFace - TBone

[Toogeloo]

WIFOM...
Worst said he had no town reads, so he may not be Cop either, but he also said to kill brassherald when he is night killed, which might be a preclaim to his next scan.

[Toogeloo]

I'll see you guys Monday.

[Toogeloo]

Yeah, I don't think he'd be a terrible shot.

Yesterday ended not too bad tbqh.

[Toogeloo]

PrivateI
D3F3ND3R
TBone
the worst

Those are my suggestions for night kill.

[Toogeloo]

It might be worth having a side screen with bolded Kill: <target> for myself, esurio, and Penguin in the event we get cop scanned, and then fill in the black with the Cop. Obviously, we won't all be on 24/7, but if we are found guilty, using our Vig to kill the Cop is the best solution instead of wasting a night kill on that Cop and being vigged ourselves, so if we have the opportunity to strike first on a scan result, we should take it.

[Toogeloo]

If Zoraster is a cop, he didn't claim a result from day 1, though maybe it was MC lol.

My #1 pick for Cop has been PrivateI.

[Toogeloo]

I'd almost say one of us just shoot someone at this point. I'm sorry, no one wants to engage, and I'm thinking if nothing happens after 24 hours from day start, I might just shoot zora myself as it will be an easy kill to walk away from.

[Toogeloo]

There isn't really a format example in the OP, so I'd think his format would count.

[Toogeloo]

Also... Kind of funny I claim inno on MurderCat day 2, MC gets shot. I claim inno on the worst day 3, the worst gets shot.

I should make a fuss about shooting my cop scans on day 4 or something lol.

[Toogeloo]

10. T-Bone -
13. PrivateI - Zoraster, TBone
14. Zoraster -
16. -hugs- - TBone
17. PokerFace - TBone, micc

Zora didn't give any indication of a scan in his one post. TBone had more posts but also didn't indicate a scan. -hugs- didn't get a post in on Day 3, so his only inno claim is on TBone. Killing any of these 3 and getting a Cop flip is the most rewarding, but also the bigger gamble. I'm more inclined to believe that a Cop would be trying to get their scans out as soon as possible so that if they die, they have the information present.

PokerFace doesn't strike me as Cop. He cast suspicion on Echo and myself for claiming a scan on MC on Day 2, but he didn't scan either of us that evening? He scanned Micc who was in agreement with suspecting Echo and I.

PrivateI is playing low key, but also scanning targets who might actually be a boon to town long term, and getting those scans out early.

My preference is to shoot PrivateI.

[Toogeloo]

-hugs- would be my second choice of shot, and possibly a good option for day kill if we can force a reason to do so.

[Toogeloo]

Yeah, I wish we had killed him Night 3, he was my #1 pick on Day 3, but it works out.

Golden Paradox replaced -hugs- and is my choice of next kill.

[Toogeloo]

Actually, hold on a hot minute. If he were Cop, I wonder if he would have restated -hugs- cop claims as well since the slot never made a day 3 inno claim.

T-Bone or zora could be holding all their results until a guilty.

[Toogeloo]

I just got in to say I would be busy tonight, as per my warning ahead of time. Seems like I missed something lol.

My only concern is that Penguin and I are probably linked now.

With the two real day night phase, the thread opens back up on Sunday, which I won't be online for. If we did just kill the Cop, and Penguin ends up getting vigged for it, we could argue that the Godfather has already been scanned and that was why Penguin felt brazen enough to fire and kill Paradox.

At any rate I'll check this topic tomorrow, but see you all Monday as well.

[Toogeloo]

Kill: T-Bone

We might find ourselves in a race to the finish. Any town who day vigs needs to go to low priority night kill. This game could end up going to who can shoot first after the 24 hour cooldown.

[Toogeloo]

Well, herald and Echo aren't actually cleared, neither is Micc though it could be argued he was the night 2 scan, which explains the heavy town read by paradox.

What's actually going to kill us is the 24 hour cooldown of the day vig. Since esurio and I can't shoot for 24 hours, Micc and Zora will probably shoot us first. Then it gets into cooldowns, and your shot on Paradox was extremely scummy, so you'll probably die quick.

What's likely to happen is Micc or Zora will make a kill tomorrow, our best case being zora kills Micc. We Kill Zora that night because all town will have shot, and then it's a 24 hour waiting game for either esurio or I to shoot (for more WIFOM).

Do I think that'll happen, probably not.

[Toogeloo]

It could also be spun that petapan shot the most useless (no offense Diamond) member of the scum team after the Cops were dead in order to get town cred.

Our biggest advantage is that town doesn't know the limitations of our shooting and might think last 3 scum are Micc, esurio, and Toogs.

[Toogeloo]

So if, by some way, you make it to endgame you could maybe use that argument, though I think most people would still kill the cop killer over the godfather killer lol.

[Toogeloo]

At some point, it will be figured out that goons can shoot. Our best play might be to speculate that goons can fire, but they can't fire on subsequent days, like Goon A fires Day 1, Goons B and C can't fire Day 2, but can on Day 3. They'd have the same 24 hour stipulation.

I'm just trying to spitball some ideas that might give us some outs. Smart people will have figured out that the scum team as a whole has a day vig instead of just the Godfather though, but still any WIFOM we could add to the pot might make things easier.

Considering we did everything right, and town shot themselves in the foot... like a lot... literally... this game might have ended up being a bit town sided still and a difficult climb from the beginning. Two Cops is hard to combat.

[Toogeloo]

Micc will kill one of us tomorrow.

The day after that will be a race to the 24h cooldown. Killing petapan is probably of high importance since they shoot quick. Echo might be a scary possibility too. It may be worth shooting petapan tonight even though I doubt zora shoots Micc tomorrow anyways.

I'll leave it to you guys. The crucial part of reaching parity will be the 24 cooldown shot though.

[Toogeloo]

My odds of being in places and making posts at specific times will probably be lower than you two.

[Toogeloo]

We only have to win one 24 hour race in the next 3 days, or have zora shoot Micc tomorrow. Esurio and I should avoid the topic for 24 hours or we might be pressed to shoot or 1v1 with Micc.

[Toogeloo]

Ok, yeah, if we don't win at parity, we're pretty much hosed. We'll be waiting on 48 hour and probably 72 hour cooldowns.

[Toogeloo]

kill: zoraster

[Toogeloo]

If we are going to have any shot at winning this, we need to ensure that whoever is last town alive has as long a Kill cooldown as us.

So killing zora ensures all town will have 24 hour cooldown when Micc shoots tomorrow. Then we kill petapan tomorrow night.

Next day, it's a race to 24 hours and we kill one of Micc or Echo and night kill the other.

[Toogeloo]

Honestly, I'm actually feeling better about our chances the more I look at the game. I don't think we lose this because we don't even need to race as long as we keep killing the lowest cooldown kill.

[Toogeloo]

I mean, just run through the numbers.

Micc kills one of us tomorrow.
-Micc, Echo, peta, 2xGoon
-We kill petapan

Doesn't matter who gets the kill in on the next day.
-If we get the kill in, we win that night with the night kill.
-if town gets the kill in, we kill the town didn't shoot. The other town has a 48 hour cooldown, we still have a 24 hour cooldown.

We kill the final day.

[Toogeloo]

So yeah... I don't think we can lose.

[Toogeloo]

I honestly think the best course of action is to not shoot at all until final day. No point in accidentally killing ourselves because we mistime a cooldown.

@MOD - I don't know if you saw my previous post, but there isn't any way scum can lose this. We can play it out, sure, but I think it might just be wasting time, tbqh.

No matter how each day goes, as long as we kill the Town player with the lowest cooldown, we will outlast them and win. I respect whatever decision is made, I just wanted to make you aware that scum can't lose this game.

[Toogeloo]

I wonder if we could/should ask town to surrender lol.

[Toogeloo]

I'll let Penguin and esurio come in and voice their opinions. But, I think if we are in agreement, one of us can explain in the game thread how town cannot win, and (pleasantly) ask for their surrender lol.

[Toogeloo]

We don't have to win any race. We win because the last town standing will have 48 hour cooldown while we have 24.

[Toogeloo]

Just remember to ALWAYS kill the town player with the lowest daykill cooldown. I just want to keep reinforcing this in the event I die before either of you.

Play through the scenarios, you'll see it work out.

[Toogeloo]

Micc hasn't shot. After he shoots, we are all 24 hours. Even if he shoots, we kill whoever at night (2 town, 2 scum remain).

Town kills us next day (assuming no race) after 24 hours, that player is now on 48 hour cooldown. The surviving scum kills the other town on 24 hour cooldown that night. 1 scum, 1 town remain. The scum has 24 hour cd, the town has 48.

[Toogeloo]

In the event Micc doesn't shoot, 24 hours pass and peta or Echo kills, they are now on 48 hour cooldown and the townie we keep.

[Toogeloo]

Anyways, I was thinking asking for a surrender by town would speed things along, but I'm more than willing to just drag things out for the next week as well.

[Toogeloo]

If we get a kill in before them, more power to us. But the important thing is that we only ever night kill the lowest cooldown player.

Don't forget you have to post at least once every 24 hours, so I figured I might as well post a suggestion of surrender.

[Toogeloo]

I didn't claim scum, but esurio and I should be be pretty much mechanically ruled into the scum role, so it doesn't matter.

[Toogeloo]

Less than 5 hours. If one of you is racing, go for the Micc daykill. If 0eta/echo kills first, just remember they are the person we take to the end.

[Toogeloo]

Lol.

Good kill too. I want to see the light in petapan's eyes go out after laughing at my suggestion of town surrendering.

[Toogeloo]

Happy Halloween.

I wantched The Thing, The Thing (prequel), and Halloween (1978 version) today. Left out a bowl of Chex Mix and Muddy Buddy packets at the end of the driveway, and they were all gone lol.