Open 798 | PYPX/Y+I/M | Game Over!

[TheGoldenParadox]

how are we at 15 pages i swear i didn't get the daystart pm that long ago

the entire lilith wagon feels manufactured and VOTE: penguinpower is pinging me especially hard, as is hoopla for what boils down to opportunistic wagon hopping.

[TheGoldenParadox]

the 240 interaction was quite bad, especially considering pp had voted Lilith previously for similar reasons. their entire lillith/uncrowned/lillith jump feels so weird to me, and there's very little actual content in his posts, beyond his shitposts.

[TheGoldenParadox]

inb4 scumteam is lilith/penguin/hoopla

liking skitter and uncrowned quite a bit

[TheGoldenParadox]

liked her interactions in the game so far, especially w/ penguin - felt very much like the goal there was accurate sorting

[TheGoldenParadox]

do u actually think it was an early bus wagon lol

please respond

talking to me? no, not particularly - i scumread penguin and hoopla, lillith is probably town.

[TheGoldenParadox]

i think JV is town, because it seems like their wagon started as a town-driven CW to lillith before hoopla jumped onto it.

[TheGoldenParadox]

go ahead, deathtunnel me. it'll do nothing but convince me even more that you're scum

there's no logic here from penguin, just a blatant attempt to fill up the thread with "tgp bad."

[TheGoldenParadox]

i think JV is town, because it seems like their wagon started as a town-driven CW to lillith before hoopla jumped onto it.

sorry, let me rephrase this with some more clarity. basically, i think JV's wagon began with town (lillith and petapan) and i think hoopla is scum that jumped on it. because hoopla put a vote down there, it makes me townlean on JV.

[TheGoldenParadox]

jackson wagon was hot and new
lillith wagon was an rvs wagon based essentially solely on the fact that they were first in the PL

penguin you can call my takes bad but calling me scum for them is a terrible take yourself

[TheGoldenParadox]

and i kind of expect town!you to have good takes so the fact that you're attacking me (mislim bait) for pushing your interactions, especially your wagon hopping and hoopla interactions, feels really off to me

[TheGoldenParadox]

what?

[TheGoldenParadox]

apologies town driven cw is probably the worst way i could have worded it ever

a new wagon started by town that scum!hoopla jumped on

[TheGoldenParadox]

quack? duckie we're nowhere CLOSE to a pagetop

[TheGoldenParadox]

oh lmao i'm stupid ~

[TheGoldenParadox]

TGP:

sorry, let me rephrase this with some more clarity. basically, i think JV's wagon began with town (lillith and petapan) and i think hoopla is scum that jumped on it. because hoopla put a vote down there, it makes me townlean on JV.

Why was Hoopla's vote jump scummy?

It wasn't directly that scummy (outside of the fact that i believe wagon hopping like that is inherently slightly more likely to come from scum trying to find a miselimination to join) but i was pinged by the subsequent Penguin interaction with that.

[TheGoldenParadox]

i wouldn't call myself a noob, but i came back from a hiatus fairly recently and i'd consider myself fairly mediocre at the game.

[TheGoldenParadox]

oh okay

i gave jv townpoints for the wagon bc i don't see scum!hoopla bussing their partner in that way

[TheGoldenParadox]

clearly, tw doesn't want me to be wagoned, because he just loves me so much

[TheGoldenParadox]

oh okay

i gave jv townpoints for the wagon bc i don't see scum!hoopla bussing their partner in that way

This might be a silly question, but if you're so convinced hoopla is scum that you're townreading jv off of apparently anti-partner-y associatives ... why are voting penguin again?

Also i think you're townreads of lilith and peta are unfounded

penguin is far more scummy than hoopla, and after reevaluating my read on JV it's more of a townlean than a townread.

[TheGoldenParadox]

Indirectly scumreading Hoopla but nowhere in this ISO is it made clear why Hoopla would be a scumread.

it's in his first post? "opportunistic wagon hopping". strong noob vibes.

Eh, fair enough. I'm used to much more though it is extremely early still.
I'm certain TGP has been in enough games to not be considered in that category. I'm just not sure I have a strong meta handle yet.

it's whatever category you want to put "person who gets concerned by early game wagon hopping"

here you go:

UNVOTE:
VOTE: penguinpower

rats.

looks like i hitched my wagon to the wrong horse.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: lilith

I wasn't really meaning super long ones. Just the paragraph ones, where it's more than a sentence.

that is such a weird comment to make about skitter when almost all her posts are one-liners. there's literally only one of her posts that is 4+ sentences long.

why pick out her?

especially when there --

*sorry, splitting up this post because it's getting pretty long.

1/2

2/2

continued:

especially when there are half a dozen other players who have posted with an amount of verbosity. not to mention me, who has actually posted a couple of walls.

i agree with peta. i simply don't buy this is genuine town thought.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: jacksonvirgo

here you go (there are no hoopla posts in between these by the way, they're adjacent in her ISO.
for context - she begins with an rvs vote on Lilith that leaves a bad taste in my mouth because while it could be harmless it also could be scum seeing if they can chain miseliminations. then a completely naked and seemingly random vote on penguin after a skitter-penguin interaction with no other context, followed by her next post being a. weird and opportunistic vote on Lilith after that wagon picks up. finally, with two sarcastic posts, she discredits and votes JV for something that really doesn't look that AI, picking up on a JV wagon forming. Yeah, this is opportunistic wagon hopping. Enough of it is NAI that Hoopla is a moderate scumlean as opposed to my PP scumread.

...ish. I'm quite reserved with my vote, especially on day 1, but it has less to do with surety and more that I see early votes as causing more problems than they solve. Also I'm afraid of making decisions.

We literally just played together, was I not like that in that game?

yes, we were. and i was shocked to discover it took you beyond page 50 to lay down your first vote.

i am fascinated by the stoic observers afraid to jump in the waters.

a handy tip: when in doubt, don't be afraid to sheep ol' hoopla.

this also felt weird to me. like, sheep hoopla on what? you've laid down a couple naked votes and another couple votes where you've basically sheeped other people.

[TheGoldenParadox]

and after reevaluating my read on JV it's more of a townlean than a townread

How do you feel about JV's posts independent of wagons?

they're... fine. a slight townlean because the points they're making haven't been great but don't jump out as scum motivated.

[TheGoldenParadox]

Yeah, this is opportunistic wagon hopping.

Is it opportunistic if JV is scum?

i mean, yes? it's opportunistic either way because it takes advantage of wagons forming and jumps on them with little to no attempted solving or town motivated reasoning.

[TheGoldenParadox]

you're not gonna convince me to scumread hoopla for naked voting

naked voting is fine, but look at the context those naked votes are being placed in.

[TheGoldenParadox]

to clarify, and give better reasons for my reads since a lot of people have been questioning/attacking my posting: I strongly think Penguin is scum because of his interactions with other players in the game, as well as reasons I cannot talk about because of ongoing games.

she also tricked me into attacking a fellow member of the 4 bracket!

I also, separately, read Hoopla as scum because of her vote hopping and what looks to be a very opportunistic mindset where the goal is miselimination rather than scum hunting and finding town, and in that regard, the above quote is really bad - you shouldn't be "tricked" into attacking people unless your reads aren't actually genuine.

Finally, I think the probability of them being scum

together

is extremely high to the point where if i'm right on hoopla, penguin is almost guaranteed scum. this is due to three reasons - first, Penguin's interaction with Hoopla in 240 as well as Hoopla's ignoring of Penguin. second, they both chose the number 4. which leads into the third reason:

hoopla has done a TON of work this game convincing people that there's max one scum in the 4s. if there is one scum, and she's town, then eliminating randomly in the 4s (1/3) has a better chance of hitting scum than eliminating randomly in the rest of the PL (1/5).

sure, there might be 0 scum, but the especially problematic part is that she COMPLETELY ignores the 4s for reads purposes. thus, i think the scumteam including penguin and hoopla is extremely likely, and I also think that that third member of the scumteam ISN'T a 4 (because having 2 members as 4s and 1 member outside that group seems most reasonable from a scum!hoopla perspective). i would wager that this is a scum gambit that backfired because both me and JV also chose 4, therefore catapulting the two to the bottom of the draft pick instead of somewhere around the middle where they otherwise would be.

VOTE: hoopla thinking about it more, not only am i inclined to believe hoopla is strongly scum from the above, i also believe that Hoopla flipping red absolutely condemns Penguin whereas the opposite is not necessarily the case, and so this is a better elimination for today.

[TheGoldenParadox]

Their answer is in the same post

i also believe that Hoopla flipping red absolutely condemns Penguin whereas the opposite is not necessarily the case, and so this is a better elimination for today.

That's not an answer. It's just two unrelated statements, the second of which does not follow from the first.

If it is true that you are definitely scum if Hoopla is (something which I don't follow at all, but I'm discussing the logic here and not the premises), then you have a strictly higher chance of being scum than Hoopla does, and you flipping town also clears Hoopla, so it seems far better to execute you in that case.

i guess you're right, I didn't think that through, and maybe the penguin!scum if hoopla!scum was misguided and a bad conclusion to draw from my argument. hoopla (imho) is more dangerous as scum than penguin is, i think hoopla is a more accepted wagon for others (due to a reason for my penguin read i cannot talk about), and i want more time for penguin to post before i'm confident in my read on him, so i'm keeping my vote on hoopla.

[TheGoldenParadox]

hoopla, what are your reads on me, pp, and JV?

[TheGoldenParadox]

hoopla, what are your reads on me, pp, and JV?

give me your reads on davesaz, dunnstral, infinity and something_smart first.

townleaning on Infinity because i think he's making valid and helpful points and his mindset seems to be solvey, with genuine attempts to find town and scum. i don't think i have any chance at successfully reading SS because he's a very mechanical player and my reads on those are generally quite bad - if i had to give a read, extremely light townlean. dave is slightly weird because they seem to be focusing on me to a greater extent than they should be, and null on dunnstral because i don't have enough from them yet.

[TheGoldenParadox]

not gonna weight my reads by draft position.

this seems like something you should reconsider - draft position is an important and publically available piece of information. you can bet scum is going to use it, so why shouldn't we?

[TheGoldenParadox]

@tw want to permanently extend deadlines to 14 days for us

[TheGoldenParadox]

rude ! but okay.

[TheGoldenParadox]

i hate the lillith wagon and we should not force probably the most powerful pr to claim d1 what the hell

[TheGoldenParadox]

like as a pressure wagon sure whatever it was bad but they've been placed at l-1 this is patently ridiculous why are we doing this

[TheGoldenParadox]

like, a lot of the names and their placement on the list are

fine

but the posts that are supposedly evidence toward these things strike me as not really telling, and are often short fairly non-AI posts (because those were the easiset to read?). this list feels like it was assembled by a random number generator, meant to impress with its size but not really having believable underlying reasoning. don't like this catchup post at all, don't see town making it, if people still have scruples about voting lilith this would be my second choice for a vote

i don't really agree with this (especially if it's characteristic for dgb), and i think the real AI of the posts linked is closer to dgb's
interpretation than yours but this entire post looks very town motivated to me

[TheGoldenParadox]

I mean scum already knows she’s a powerful PR

and we already know that too, so why are we wagoning her

the scum are already informed of their own roles as well as another thing no one picked and publicizing lillith's role seems like it helps scum

we already know lillith is a powerful pr. for purposes of actually eliminating her, what about her claim helps town?

[TheGoldenParadox]

Actually town doesn’t have a tracker right?

this looks like an (actual) scumslip?

Because in my mind it's all part of the same vibe but I guess i didnt explain it sufficiently so i'm trying to again in a different wat

skitter can you link some posts this game that give you the impression that lilith doesn't want to post and explain why you think that?

Later tonight, ya, dont wanna do this on my phone

I mean scum already knows she’s a powerful PR

and we already know that too, so why are we wagoning her

the scum are already informed of their own roles as well as another thing no one picked and publicizing lillith's role seems like it helps scum

we already know lillith is a powerful pr. for purposes of actually eliminating her, what about her claim helps town?

Heya what do u think of my alignment?

i think town. i don't think scum pushes lillith like you did, so townread on you.

[TheGoldenParadox]

like, a lot of the names and their placement on the list are

fine

but the posts that are supposedly evidence toward these things strike me as not really telling, and are often short fairly non-AI posts (because those were the easiset to read?). this list feels like it was assembled by a random number generator, meant to impress with its size but not really having believable underlying reasoning. don't like this catchup post at all, don't see town making it, if people still have scruples about voting lilith this would be my second choice for a vote

i don't really agree with this (especially if it's characteristic for dgb), and i think the real AI of the posts linked is closer to dgb's
interpretation than yours but this entire post looks very town motivated to me

town motivated

how

you analyze her post and make points in a way that resonates with me, even if i disagree with many of those points. the "random number generator" line is a bold-seeming one that looks like town to me.

[TheGoldenParadox]

Actually town doesn’t have a tracker right? Honestly I feel like skitter is confident enough that we maybe just lim lilith here. But I think we should talk about it more.

PEdit: you didn’t need to put it to L-1 though?

Town could have a tracker unless there has been a JK claim I've missed.

The E-1 was a calculated risk. I thought the potential reward in reactions and discussion outweighed the risk.

Sorry, town is unlikely* to have a tracker cause I think JK is a significantly better role.

oh, maybe not a scumslip. huh.

[TheGoldenParadox]

yeah ngl this game needs more shitposting

[TheGoldenParadox]

hey penguin

teach me the ways of shitposting pls

[TheGoldenParadox]

it's so funny that you're talking about your own slot, one that you got the role pm for, as "++town for you"
"

[TheGoldenParadox]

I think where we're at now is something like

skitt -- oblig
S_S, uncrowned -- strong town
PP, hoopla, peta -- town
dave
TGP, JV -- null
lil, DGB -- scumlean
dunn -- scum
infinity -- obvscum

how is this influenced by the draft positions, if at all?

[TheGoldenParadox]

VOTE: DGB ok

I think hoopla is scum, it really isn’t a sheep I’ve been pushing that one for a while? Davesaz is also pretty scummy. Honestly I’m proud of how many scumreads I have, I usually have none on d1

Oh I was just wondering if you had questions for me but ok

I do think my style involves putting a lot of info into the thread, and following my gut as for what to make of it. Which does mean a lot of questions don't lead anywhere right away but

I enjoyed haunted village a lot since murdercat was in the game and scum was easier to find, it was the kind of game that was conducive to effort. This game everyone is so good and has meta reasons to read everyone else so it's like what do I do

terrible posting
menal you've sold me VOTE: infinity

like menal's point was good but infinity's response to it was hardscum

[TheGoldenParadox]

as a fairly major corollary: I think there is quite likely a scum in (lil, DGB) and I know I've already mentioned this but want to reiterate -- if there isn't AND if infinity flips scum, I think skitter's scum equity goes through the roof

I'm really having a hard time seeing why scum-skitter would go into turbo murder mode on town-lilith if she is known for being able to read lilith super accurately. As I mentioned earlier I think skitter's scum equity is a lot higher if lilith is scum, though still fairly low.

agree that skitter's probably town, but does scum-skitter go into turbo murder mode on scumpartner-lillith on d1 especially if everyone knows skitter can read lillith accurately and therefore lillith is likely to be elimmed on that word?
idk, feels like it's more likely that scum-skitter uses that knowledge that she's able to read lillith to eliminate town!lillith

[TheGoldenParadox]

it's mostly the incongruence of skitter defending a slot I think is VERY scummy whenever anyone has raised that when I would expect her to be calling the things out that I'm seeing and not defusing pressure there

honestly i didn't even consider infinity!scum until their response to your case on them

[TheGoldenParadox]

How would you feel about slapping a vote down there TGP?

already did see 1111

[TheGoldenParadox]

i think menal has a reputation for lolclaiming.

also, from SS's stats, 3/16 PYP games have not had the cop slot at all. Consider that.

[TheGoldenParadox]

VOTE: dgb
VOTE: dunnstral

what?

[TheGoldenParadox]

this probably isn't the time to start a dunnstral wagon. i'm fine eliminating in {infinity, hoopla, dgb}, but we can't no-elim.

or can we (?) idk but isn't this game at evens or something and odds are better?

[TheGoldenParadox]

she’s always gonna be a liability

Lilith and Golden Paradox have fewer posts than the mod but OK

i

always

have fewer posts than the mod. it doesn't mean i haven't put a lot of content out. your play the last two pages has seemed very weird to me.

that being said, i don't buy dgb scum, and considering that i don't think she'd lie about being such a good townplayer, i'm not on board with eliminating her d1 under any circumstances. like come on, this is just a "eliminate the least charismatic player" (not an attack on you dgb, just that you have written off this game to an extent) and i don't buy this wagon at all. my vote will stay on infinity, and y'all should join me.

[TheGoldenParadox]

Oh there we go again with the "everything's fake" and not believing your lying eyes. You're gaslighting yourself.

Anyhoo it looks like I'm hammered.

I was town and choose PGO because I expected to be NK'd.

Adios amigos

VOTE: dgb

dgb, did you GET pgo?

[TheGoldenParadox]

VOTE: dgb

sorry. no one else above you in the draft took vig, you chose the vig slot, and then took PGO? don't believe it, sorry

[TheGoldenParadox]

like even in the remote parallel universe where this happened, pgo is negative utility or very very close to it, so i'm fine eliminating this pgo claim.

[TheGoldenParadox]

no, i think it was l-1?

[TheGoldenParadox]

really sorry that this game was such a poor experience for you dgb :/

[TheGoldenParadox]

VOTE: hoopla

there is confirmed no scum 1-shot vig, so we should absolutely avoid shooting at the top of the draft.

[TheGoldenParadox]

sorry, i meant limming/executing. there is no scum 1-shot vigilante, so we should avoid limming at the top of the draft because that would be hitting PRs which are a lot more important for town than scum.

[TheGoldenParadox]

my hoopla/pp theory is looking very likely.

[TheGoldenParadox]

the 240 interaction was quite bad, especially considering pp had voted Lilith previously for similar reasons. their entire lillith/uncrowned/lillith jump feels so weird to me, and there's very little actual content in his posts, beyond his shitposts.

lol

Nothing to that ridiculous statement?

Late quack

Like I’m about to tunnel tgp.

Lol tgp is bad.

this is penguin's posting after i started pushing him this game.

I'd like to point out that Micc only reinforced the idea, which was originally... mine.

i think both you and micc are town for it.

gf hunting is probably a terrible idea atm - once we get a guilty we can actually go from there, shooting in the pool of innos is a no.

brass town (shooting murdercat was stupid and i should chemically castrate you but town nonetheless)
petapan town (hypo copping)

micc probably town as well

as is pokerface because they have clear analysis and information
we already know t-bone and zor are town or gf

echo is almost def town/gf because they can shoot

so that leaves us with maybe a godfather in the above plus 3 goons in {esurio,

toogeloo

, pp, ds}

i'm fine with either echo or brass shooting within that pool

lol - what bad posts. you believe what you say or you're just trying to control the narrative?

kill: TheGoldenParadox

this is penguin's posting in =12256792]bad idea mafia when i copslipped very hard. notice the similarity?

[TheGoldenParadox]

hope you and your loved ones are okay jv :/

[TheGoldenParadox]

hmm

okay, I don't think scum is exactly (skitt, lilith, infinity) but I do think there's at least one scum in there and I think quite conceivably two

I really don't like skitter's entry into today (where she's pushing for me but not really going into any detail and calling lil (one of her top SRs yesterday) out as doing good posting for her completely unsubstantiated vote on me, esp when she was happy to call DGB's vote on lili as a likely distancing vote yesterday

infinity seems to be rapidly changing his tone on me and is probably still scum (went from trying to appease me yesterday to immediately jumping onto me today with a kind of half arsed justification)

so I guess I'm leaning like (skitt, infinity, ...) rn only I'm not sure

the hoopla/JV hop ons also... weren't good

don't like how your scumreads are all people likely to be prs sorry that's gross

[TheGoldenParadox]

@Mena

Both you and TGP were both "set" on Infinity and then dropped that idea for a wagon that neither of you seemed invested in at all. in fact, TGP even went as far as to say that they're "not on board with eliminating her (DGB) under any circumstances" on D1 and that they "doesn't buy the wagon" but yet decided to drop that whole mentality because she... made a claim? A claim that wasn't countered? A claim that would've been real dumb to fake considering the setup?

It just makes no sense to me.

You also behaved similarly

pgo is a negative utility role which easily explains an extra nightkill on a pr
so if lillith and someone else died n1, it could have easily been explained away as a pgo shot when it was actually a scumvig shot
basically dgb could have been scum vig which would have been great, and if not, losing a pgo isn't too bad and confirms the lack of scum 1-shot vig

[TheGoldenParadox]

VOTE: menal

i'm good with this elim today.

[TheGoldenParadox]

I just have a real icky feeling about TGP in general tbh

The whole part where they default to Hoopla and then gets on a wagon once one has picked up looks like an attempt to show active voting/hunting although Hoopla hasn't been at the forefront of the game in what feels like forever at this point, like probably 40 pages ago or more?

But then when we have these crucial moments (DGB and Mena now, I'd say) they have almost nothing to say other than getting on the wagon?

there

is

nothing to say
my vote on dgb was because flipping a claimed pgo is protown not only because pgo is negative util but because it removes the possibility of a scum 1-shot vig being in the game so it didn't matter if dgb was a star player because mechanically their slot was proscum even if their claim was true (which it was)

my vote on mena is also mechanical because of lillith's claim

on the off chance mena flips town infinity is probably scum

i was voting hoopla because she is incredibly unlikely to be a PR and therefore a much better lim than anyone in the top half of the draft i have cased her ya know

[TheGoldenParadox]

I'm not sure TGP/Infinity would be together judging by TGP's posting about how everyone should get off the DGB wagon and go after Infinity on D1.

But then again... they ended up going back on that decision almost immediately which is why I'm sussing them in the first place so it could be a possibility.

because dgb claimed pgo lol

[TheGoldenParadox]

this probably isn't the time to start a dunnstral wagon. i'm fine eliminating in {infinity, hoopla, dgb}, but we can't no-elim.

or can we (?) idk but isn't this game at evens or something and odds are better?

she’s always gonna be a liability

Lilith and Golden Paradox have fewer posts than the mod but OK

i

always

have fewer posts than the mod. it doesn't mean i haven't put a lot of content out. your play the last two pages has seemed very weird to me.

that being said, i don't buy dgb scum, and considering that i don't think she'd lie about being such a good townplayer, i'm not on board with eliminating her d1 under any circumstances. like come on, this is just a "eliminate the least charismatic player" (not an attack on you dgb, just that you have written off this game to an extent) and i don't buy this wagon at all. my vote will stay on infinity, and y'all should join me.

Oh there we go again with the "everything's fake" and not believing your lying eyes. You're gaslighting yourself.

Anyhoo it looks like I'm hammered.

I was town and choose PGO because I expected to be NK'd.

Adios amigos

VOTE: dgb

dgb, did you GET pgo?

VOTE: dgb

sorry. no one else above you in the draft took vig, you chose the vig slot, and then took PGO? don't believe it, sorry

VOTE: menal

These were all back to back in their ISO. This does not look natural at all.

i'm good with this elim today.

This also looks real bad, especially considering TGP's play has consisted of "Let's lynch Hoopla" who, as I said, hasn't been the focus of the game in terms of being pressured or wagon since I want to say roughly page 20-30.

The lack of willingness to engage with the wagons, only to jump on at the most opportunistic moment with no comments on either slot (DGB and now Mena) can't be ignored.

This doesn't seem like townplay to me. Even when TGP has been "against" the wagon, they've barely spoken about it and have only either voted someone else or voted on the wagon. There's no other interaction here. No information seeking or real attempts at reads outside of Hoopla

Also forgot to mention but assuming I'm right on this TGP thing, Daves is most likely town.

ineteresting on how you call my votes opportunistic
they're very simply mechanically-driven votes

also by "any circumstances" i meant "any reasonable circumstances" to me, dgb claiming PGO was almost as unexpected as if she outright claimed scum
anyways why would she even take that slot if she hated vig and knew pgo was basically negative utility

[TheGoldenParadox]

my vote on mena is also mechanical because of lillith's claim

wow, that's convenient!

so convenient! a player who is guaranteed to be a power role claimed jailkeeper on a slot that is incredibly unlikely to be nightkilled, and no nightkills occured.

[TheGoldenParadox]

I feel like the not wanting to vote out PRs thing is kinda NAI? its LAMISTy and can come from either alignment imo

Their casing on Hoopla does look decent but I do have an issue with it - it's mainly based around game theory and the draft. They've done nothing to progress that read since making it based on Hoopla's play outside of the whole 4s thing that was all talked about during the beginning of the game. I feel like she's posted enough to where, if you were STILL scumreading her (which I assume TGP does considering they voted her now on D2?) you'd think there'd be more substance to it by now.

i don't expect my reads in this game to be great it's filled with players who are much better than i am
but i do think that i can look at someone's play and look at their position in the draft and what they have said to arrive at a reasonable conclusion
hoopla is scum
and i've used a lot of hoopla's actual posting especially her interaction with PP it wasn't JUST the fours thing lol

[TheGoldenParadox]

my vote on mena is also mechanical because of lillith's claim

wow, that's convenient!

so convenient! a player who is guaranteed to be a power role claimed jailkeeper on a slot that is incredibly unlikely to be nightkilled, and no nightkills occured.

why am I so unlikely to be a NK, TGP

you've played with me

am I not a threat to scum?

you are a threat to scum
but a large portion of this playerlist is a threat to scum, including people who are far more likely to be actual powerroles come on

[TheGoldenParadox]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

I also just played with TGP and this is what I mean when I say they feel totally different here

i mean, weird times and all.

[TheGoldenParadox]

do you think there are 2 scum in the 4's, TGP?

yes absolutely

those two scum are pp and hoopla

[TheGoldenParadox]

you are a threat to scum
but a large portion of this playerlist is a threat to scum, including people who are far more likely to be actual powerroles come on

none of those people hardclaimed cop tho

and also, why is it implausible that either (1) scum!infinity freaked out and wanted me dead after D1 or (2) that the doc got a save on uncrowned/skitt on the same night I was JK'd?

i mean i don't think it's likely that you're actually a cop
and don't you commonly lolclaim

[TheGoldenParadox]

so scum... intentionally nuke their chances of having good PRs... allowing them to be caught or eliminated by town having a BOUNTY of PRs... for some WIFOM... that evaporates in usefulness the second one of them gets caught/tracked/whatever, or they just get PoE'd? that's what you're saying you think scum did in the draft phase?

there aren't that many PRs that are incredibly powerful for scum in any case, and i think hoopla pp and you would that gamble

it explains why dgb got the vig slot

it explains them choosing informed instead of multitasking

it explains hoopla's weird interactions with PP and her entire 4s thing

the scumteam is hoopla penguin and menal

[TheGoldenParadox]

you are a threat to scum
but a large portion of this playerlist is a threat to scum, including people who are far more likely to be actual powerroles come on

none of those people hardclaimed cop tho

and also, why is it implausible that either (1) scum!infinity freaked out and wanted me dead after D1 or (2) that the doc got a save on uncrowned/skitt on the same night I was JK'd?

i mean i don't think it's likely that you're actually a cop
and don't you commonly lolclaim

why should scum think that's unlikely tho

especially when there's a game very recently where a player toward the bottom end of the draft rolled cop

and I do, yes, but I also make my real claims look like lolclaims sometimes to fuck with scum

because you're near the bottom of the draft and cop is a commonly taken role
yes i know you do (our last game) but hypothetically if you were town, scum wouldn't know that

[TheGoldenParadox]

best bird?

[TheGoldenParadox]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

I also just played with TGP and this is what I mean when I say they feel totally different here

i'm going over this and they read decently similarly? what are you seeing this game that's so different?

I think they were significantly more pro-active, less tunnel-y and more focused on sorting the PL in general, had a much more light-hearted tone, and were very interested in working with me

I also really hated their vote on me and the way they made it

i was super interested in working with you d1. i'm voting you because there's essentially a guilty on you, and you've claimed vt so it's not like we're losing a town pr.
it just makes no sense to me that you would be nked n1 over players who would be nked n1 for their strength AND are far more likely to be prs.

[TheGoldenParadox]

menal you're pinging me so hard as town

[TheGoldenParadox]

the problem is like
you're so good of a scumplayer i don't trust my own reads over the strong mechanical evidence that you're scum

[TheGoldenParadox]

it just makes no sense to me that you would be nked n1 over players who would be nked n1 for their strength AND are far more likely to be prs.

you're at once arguing that he's god-tier and also arguing that other people woudl be n1'd before him because they're stronger than him?

i said he's good enough at scum to give me strong townpings, not that he's god-tier
other people would be n1'ed before him because they're similarly strong players and far more likely to be prs
this is much simpler than you're making it out to be

[TheGoldenParadox]

I think JV is much more likely than TGP to be scum pretending to be town stuck in a tunnel. For example, 1912 feels like a town "aha" moment. JV has tunneled peta from super early on giving very little focus to other slots, and when they did, it was often on NAI stuff. I don't think town tunnels based on an early d1 response to a joke, and 593 didn't feel like a "heh I'm gonna catch you with this" post.

VOTE: JV

this is absolutely terrible

the problem is like
you're so good of a scumplayer i don't trust my own reads over the strong mechanical evidence that you're scum

As a very mechanically-inclined player, I would say there's mild mechanical evidence that he's scum, not strong mechanical evidence.

hm okay ss i'll take your word on this
2042 was terrible and mena is town spewing very hard right now so i'll VOTE: infinity
the explanation that he tried to shoot town!mena is reasonable

[TheGoldenParadox]

skitter is town
i'll buy that mena is town
infinity is probably scum which implies that petapan is town because they're the only two on the jv wagon

[TheGoldenParadox]

I'm super easy to read if you are good at reading me.

i think (?) i fall into this category

nah, sorry

?

I mean, I don't think I'm

awful

* at reading you but it's never easy, and I can't think of anyone who can consistently distinguish between your towngame and scumgame

*not saying I'm good

think she meant she's good at reading penguin, not that she's super easy to read if you're good at reading her but i might be wrong

[TheGoldenParadox]

this is absolutely terrible

Why?

like i'm not sure how to describe it? reading that post pinged me

[TheGoldenParadox]

skitter skitter skitter
would you like to join me on infinity it's a much better wagon

[TheGoldenParadox]

what do you think about peta if TGP!scum?

and can you explain the "a whole bunch" thing? why do you think a lot of them would jump on for the quick/easy elim?

i don't raelly have any thoughts/associatives between tgp/peta. i don't think that scum!tgp affects my read there

and ... why wouldn't they? esp. after a quasi-guilty? easy lim to hop on, loads of momentum, easy to slip on (cough tgp cough)

I guess I'm just trying to see it fypov

this is exactly the sort of thing where I personally wouldn't want to hop on as scum bc I think it would look bad after I flipped. so I guess I'm trying to see why you think scum would get enough of a free pass for the mechanical thing (especially as that wasn't made explicit until I already had like 5 votes I think?) to risk the exposure after my town flip. does that make sense? and then it's slightly troubling to me that with my current reads, if they're right, it would mean basically the entire scumteam decided to jump on me

I just think peta has been like soft TRing TGP all game and is only kinda voting him now that he's under a lot of pressure. basically, what you said about DGB's lili vote on D1 I think applies to peta's TGP vote here. if TGP flips scum, I don't think peta should get any credit for it and should be looked at carefully tomorrow, even tho I also like him for town on a gut sorta level

peta has been defending me for a while and naked switched to me right now
it's not a good vote obviously but i tr them for that switch

[TheGoldenParadox]

the problem is like
you're so good of a scumplayer i don't trust my own reads over the strong mechanical evidence that you're scum

@tgp where does this impression of him come from ????

i swear i answered this did it not post

i worded it wrong what i meant to say is that from my skimming of his scumgames + his self description which seems pretty accurate mena seems like he's good enough at townspewing as scum to fool me
which isn't exactly the highest bar but w/e

[TheGoldenParadox]

skitter skitter skitter
would you like to join me on infinity it's a much better wagon

no? what makes you think i would

their posting yesterday was bad
their posting today isn't great
my wagon is terrible i promise i'm just lhf

[TheGoldenParadox]

i'm town because my interactions and progressions don't make sense for scum
like. imo the biggest difference between town and scum is the fact that town is completely in the dark whereas scum knows the alignment of every player in the game
and my posting whatever you think of my reads and my reasoning make a lot more sense from someone who's uninformed than someone who knows the alignment of every player in the game

[TheGoldenParadox]

the problem is like
you're so good of a scumplayer i don't trust my own reads over the strong mechanical evidence that you're scum

@tgp where does this impression of him come from ????

i don't understand how voting infinity is opportunistic on my part when i could have voted dgb easily then (which i did, but after the unexpected and scummy claim)

mena made an extremely strong point - infinity up till that point had been a basic, default townread that had barely been called into question when his posts had genuinely been scummy
infinity seems to me like they're informed. at no point to me have they felt actually genuine; slightly above null for a point, but i never really townread infinity.

i genuinely do not know how to explain how infinity's posting pings me but it does

do i really look like scum seeing where they can fit onto a mislim? dgb was essentially a guaranteed lim, and if i were scum i would just hard defend her instead of being on that lim
i've explained my mena progression several times

[TheGoldenParadox]

no

[TheGoldenParadox]

That's not why I'm scumreading him though? I'm scumreading him for how he's interacted with wagons.

Thinking that EVERY scum sits on the fence or tries to go under the radar would end up with town losing a lot of games. A game I remember vividly involving Flavor Leaf had him being the most aggressive player in the lobby, with the most "hot takes" and polarizing actions... and he was scum. It's not a one size fits all type of thing.

flavor leaf won the don corleone scummy and is probably the best scumplayer on this site today.
how- how do you say "people who do x are likely to be scummy, tgp is doing the opposite of x, but tgp is still scum because i saw

flavor fucking leaf

do the opposite of x too"
like i feel like you're confbiased into thinking i'm scum and refuse to see the other side
i'm pretty lhf and my wagon interaction has been fairly typical of town!me but i haven't been opportunistic nor have i joined wagons in a way that benefits scum
the dgb wagon was probably going to go through with or without my vote
my vote could not have really affected the menal wagon either with its placement
like i'm really struggling to see how you look at my votes and see scum motivation please relook at them

[TheGoldenParadox]

TheGoldenParadox

, please try to explain what's bad about infinity's posts to you

unvote for now and i will

[TheGoldenParadox]

like at this point chances are i'll probably be hammered without intent so i'm not going to waste time formulating a real infinity case unless i'm no longer at l-1

[TheGoldenParadox]

thanks. give me half an hour or so, i should have a case done by then.

[TheGoldenParadox]

Pretty sure scum!lilith chooses 1-shot vig and uses it night 1.

1s vigi is paired with 1s pgo ... which dgb flipped

So barring an odd WIFOM play, the top couple slots in the draft are probably town.

this seems like intentionally bad reasoning, and it looks scum-indicative to me. Because dgb was below every unique number that was picked, it seems like a stretch to say that:
1. it would be an odd wifom play to not take the 1-shot vig as scum
2. this only applies to the top couple slots in the draft

while i understand the possible reasoning that the top couple of slots in the draft would be more confident in getting 1-shot vig as scum, it's not a particularly coveted town role and is not incredibly likely to be picked by town. thus, this reasoning seems like it falls apart pretty quickly when attempting to make both of those arguments together.

VOTE: hoopla

there is confirmed no scum 1-shot vig, so we should absolutely avoid shooting at the top of the draft.

We certainly should avoid shooting the top of the draft

Oh shit...the pt. Wrong thread.

Lol you think a post with a vote in it was meant for the scum pt?

also... a bit weird. like penguin is an (obviously) quite shitposty player, and this post seems like... something i wouldn't expect from town.

There's an amount of pride that goes with reads you have before replacing in, you clearly seemed like you had caught me, you were

so sure

and then I make an effort post and you're like ehh sort later without even reading it?

while this alone isn't terrible, it's made a lot worse by the fact that infinity does... essentially the same thing back to menal. even though this post itself isn't that scum indicative, it calls out menal in a way that i particularly agree with and doesn't seem to be made in good faith.

UNVOTE:

Mena is too earnest. Need to rethink

Still think the 1-shot vig thing makes lilith pretty likely to be town

I think a doc save might be what's going on

this is bad, not only because of the stretched mechanical reasoning about lillith but because of the reevaluation of mena. infinity had recently pointed out that in a recent game he had seen confirmed scum pretend like they were earnestly game solving, and i feel like this flip on menal without a massive change in menal's tone and posting style at that point (just the amount of it) was fairly scummy.

I think JV is much more likely than TGP to be scum pretending to be town stuck in a tunnel. For example, 1912 feels like a town "aha" moment. JV has tunneled peta from super early on giving very little focus to other slots, and when they did, it was often on NAI stuff. I don't think town tunnels based on an early d1 response to a joke, and 593 didn't feel like a "heh I'm gonna catch you with this" post.

VOTE: JV

this gut pinged me, so i'm going to try to explain it. infinity has pointed out themselves that they try to just focus on slots that specifically ping them (they said 3-4 was good, which it seems like JV has), and strikes me as a good enough player to know that tunnels aren't usually indicative of scumplay,

especially

when they're on what seems like thin reasoning.
none of this reasoning is bad, per se. but it pings me more as coming from someone who knows alignments than not.

If the entire plan was to make a bunch of opportunistic votes and use "I'm LHF" as a defense, why does 2104 sound so nervous? It doesn't add up for me

Not really. I like to focus on a few slots at a time because I can get overwhelmed if I try to focus on everyone at once (this is one of the realizations that made me feel better about hoopla fwiw). But 3-4 slots for directed attention is a good sweetspot imo.

this is a good post in isolation, but the fact that infinity has called others out for doing similar things (notably JV) is problematic.

The problem is that your case isn't very convincing to me because I don't see flip-flopping and weak reasoning as scumtells in the general case. I try to match emotion and tone to players' behavior to see whether more sense as town vs. scum, and here it feels like it matches up much better if TGP is town.

people who sit on the fence, go under the radar, or make attempts to be unpolarizing are the ones who are likely to be scum

TGP has been the total opposite of this.

Besides that I give up trying to explain my townread.

finally, Infinity's defense of me is bad. it feels very much that they KNOW i am town and are attempting to invent fairly thin reasoning to defend me for the towncred when they know i'll flip town. it's an argument that relies on the knowledge that i am town, but the actual arguments that are being made (that flip-flopping and weak reasoning aren't scumtells and i'm doing the opposite of sitting on the fence or going under the radar, implying me being town) don't seem like genuine, good-faith town arguments.

[TheGoldenParadox]

uhh my scumpool is like {infinity, hoopla, penguin, dunn, dave} in that order

[TheGoldenParadox]

we're waiting for you to unvote because i'm town and join me on infinity

or hoopla

[TheGoldenParadox]

thanks can't believe that was three years ago

[TheGoldenParadox]

get infinity tomorrow

[TheGoldenParadox]

or at least genuinely evaluate my case on them after i flip green please

[TheGoldenParadox]

oh i'm a vt

[TheGoldenParadox]

I'm inclined to believe there's no scum on it

actually i think i agree with you on this

[TheGoldenParadox]

let me think on if i should answer it

[TheGoldenParadox]

the answer is *probably* yes but i need a bit to think

[TheGoldenParadox]

What information are we keeping from scum if they dont claim it

The fact that someone above TGP in the draft took a role from the pair that they requested. Scum could infer that this is likely, but they don't know for sure.

[TheGoldenParadox]

okay

i picked cop

[TheGoldenParadox]

no infinity seems too earnest to be scum fuck

[TheGoldenParadox]

no lmao

i'm getting limmed and i'm trying to get the best possible reads so y'all can have something to look back to

[TheGoldenParadox]

okay yeah

i'm confident in hoopla being scum

[TheGoldenParadox]

not confident in infinity anymore goddamn it

menal is a black box and i refuse to try to read that

[TheGoldenParadox]

UNVOTE:

Mena is too earnest. Need to rethink

Still think the 1-shot vig thing makes lilith pretty likely to be town

I think a doc save might be what's going on

i feel like this flip on menal without a massive change in menal's tone and posting style at that point (just the amount of it) was fairly scummy.

Lol am I getting trolled

yeah no exactly
i'm getting hammered, probably soon
my read on you was bad

[TheGoldenParadox]

VOTE: dunn

[TheGoldenParadox]

this is green

powerlim dunn tomorrow

[TheGoldenParadox]

and then get hoopla because she's so scummy it's scary

[TheGoldenParadox]

like the 4s thing is terrible

[TheGoldenParadox]

this is green

powerlim dunn tomorrow

You're the one who came at me.

don't care if it counts VOTE: dunn that hammer was a scumclaim

[TheGoldenParadox]

i regret not tunneling hoopla harder