Death Curse

[UNOwen]

Hello everyone
VOTE: Noraa

Mechanics talk is going over my head so far

[UNOwen]

Ah yes, I knew that my vote against Noraa would lead to good things.
The wagon looks promising, Noraa's reaction to the pressure has indeed been flaily.
Adorable's vote was not great.

[UNOwen]

My top three scum reads are Noraa, Owen and Bell.

What's this all about?

[UNOwen]

I wish beetle juice tell worked.
*sips soda*

How you doin Owen?

I'm doing good.
Yourself?

[UNOwen]

@ unowen, not great. What’s your name a reference to?

"And Then There Were None"

[UNOwen]

UNOwen is here! Quick, get 'em!

UNOwen, I would like your opinions. All of them (that are relevant to the game). I would like them soon, because right now your slot is /content free/. Zero calories. No fat, sugar, artificial flavors, natural flavors. 100% empty.

I disagree my slot is content free. It has a juicy and filling Noraa scum read, I do not expect to vote elsewhere until she is cursed.
If there is something specific you'd like me to opine about, ask and I will provide.

[UNOwen]

UNO's not usually immediately obvtown but i've got confidence i can sort there, providing they give content

I would like to hear your thoughts on specifically Isis and Bell

Isis is mildly suspicious. I did not like the "give me vig" plan, I can believe someone who thinks they have found a high profile but town read scum wanting to take the shot. However, the reasoning provided was not very compelling, the main point being some meta behaviour that I don't know about but doesn't sound like the type of logic that would convince me. This makes the whole thing look like a performance. The retraction seemed to come about naturally though, I'm not sure that was the sort of thing that could be planned out.

Bell has out of game stuff going on it sounds like, so it seems that any read I make on him will be coloured by that. I will return to him later in the game.

[UNOwen]

ok why do you think the logic is weak because meta itself is quite compelling

This is the meta reason:

The iso doesn't matter. LLD doesn't want to interact with me whenever she's scum and she passed up an opportunity to interact with me. She's probably scum

If LLD scum always tries to avoid a player and they have enough experience together for this to be a thing, then it probably would have come up before and so LLD scum would know to play around it. It sounds like kind of a weak tell to try and take out the most proactive player and yourself over.

[UNOwen]

To get back to you, UNOwen, I think you could opine on /literally any slot except the universal punching bag/? I mean, you are taking /no stands/ here. I don't even expect your vote to move, I expect you to have anything at all to talk about with this 20 player game OTHER than the player that's been talked about to death.

Your slot is content free. Content. Free. You have taken no stand worth remarking on, you have chimed on on zero non-Noraa events of any sort, you have posted no reads that aren't the single easiest elimination/miselimination possible in this entire game. UNOwen, if I didn't know better I'd say you weren't playing this game at all, and that you're on the player list by mistake and using the opportunity to dunk on Noraa. /That isn't a compliment./

At some point I will have opinions that are more substantial and worth offering without request. But the game has just started, and it is going at a good pace, so I see no reason to rush.

[UNOwen]

UNO i would like these names arranged in order of town -> scum
shellyc
Mushagana
isis
pooky
LLD
hopkirk

Now I like this task.
LLD
MUSH
shellyc
Pooky
Hopkirk
Isis

[UNOwen]

It happened in a second game even though it was a pattern in the first, so that counterargument didn't matter to me.
Even assuming she's aware about it, why couldn't it be correct play to just do it anyway and get voted and end up an

eleventh

of the way to getting eliminated? It's unlikely to be compelling to other players.

Well two games experience certainly doesn't sound like enough to establish a pattern.
If you're playing with a player who has a scum tell on you that you can easily counter, then it is surely correct play to just do that?

[UNOwen]

insightful

why is mush that high though

Aggressive swinging reminds me of her town play when we played together. In that game I thought that her behaviour was very unlikely to be fake able by scum, it looks like she is on the same path. The Taylor read she has also calls back to that game, and I think it is honest based on how they interacted then.

[UNOwen]

Like sometimes when you are good at scum you realize "I need to do X thing and that one person will definitely scumread me for it but everyone else will townread me for it so it doesn't matter"

Why would LLD not engaging with you lead to everyone else town reading her though?
You have a point that scum might take the trade of being scumread by one to be townread by many, but it's not clear why you think that would be the equation at play here.

[UNOwen]

@Zdenek - But what's it all about?

[UNOwen]

I would like you to elaborate on hopkirk tho

Hopkirk asked about the specifics of what Noraa said in discord. I expect that this is one place where Noraa might be correct - as in she only mentioned Hectic as a mod being exciting or whatever and nothing about setup - but don't think it makes her reaction to the wagon any less scummy so Hopkirk investigating something that looked like a dead end pinged slightly.

[UNOwen]

I don't think I've ever mentioned it before.
I also knew LLD would not consider it valid no matter her role, and when you feel something is invalid you skew even more towards, just do the thing that one weird person doesn't like,

the games that aren't rigged are easier to beat

.

What does bolded mean?

I don't think you're solving, because the goalposts here should clearly be at "I believe Isis believes this" rather than "Isis is right to believe this", because "2 games isn't actually enough evidence" is a very good argument that in a disciplined scientific way it's flawed but it should be pretty obvious a human you don't know very well could be rather convinced from just a couple games.
VOTE: UNOWEN

That I think you are wrong to believe it is a separate question to whether I believe you believe it.

[UNOwen]

hectic is a rather boring mod

don't modkill me

an investigative mindset leans town though, it's not making something out of nothing, it's quite clearly a solving mindset

Right but if Noraa is correct that she did not mention setup in discord, does that make her more likely to be town?
It doesn't seem like a useful line of inquiry, because I already presumed she had not mentioned setup.

[UNOwen]

Do you believe I believe it, yet? Do you still scumread me?

The bolded was a metaphor saying that playerslots that will read you for more reasonable or rational bases are better to focus on. It's more likely there's a path to getting townread that you can find easier than random guessing

I believe you might believe it. You are still on the suspicious side of things, I have not got a firm opinion on you yet. It is inevitable that I will suspect town so this is not something I would have raised unless shelly asked specifically.

[UNOwen]

but I mean how would you know that confscu-I mean noraa is telling the truth

Would be a silly thing to lie about if LLD can directly contradict.

[UNOwen]

Laziness, and bolstering and attacking the wagon on Noraa in the same post.

You believe that Adorable = the wagon?

[UNOwen]

Yeah I got so fucking pissed that she used an outside influence against me. I literally just said I was excited to play a game that Hectic modded and she twisted that to somehow prove that there's no possible way I didn't read the OPs. Uno you have played with me before and you really think I'm scum here?

I'm afraid I do.

owen what are your reads atm?

Noraa scum.
Adorable scum.
Zdenek scum?

As earlier, if you want me to look at a specific player then I will.

[UNOwen]

These people, please read Hopkirk and give me a read. "Null" is not a read unless you can justify it real well, please. I want you to lean TOWN or SCUM essentially "would you kill Hopkirk?"

Yes I would kill Hopkirk, I can see him as scum. That is a low confidence suspicion though and would prefer cursing elsewhere for now.

[UNOwen]

Why uno?

The panicked response to the wagon building against you. Throwing together a read list and your catch up on previous posts looked like desperately trying to reset the game state to defuse the pressure. I recall you being flaily as scum in our first game together.

[UNOwen]

I don't understand this "Noraa as third cursed" plan. If there is a majority who thinks she is scum, then she should get the scroll first.

If Noraa is scum and chooses to "night kill" then fine, we will get another shot.
If Noraa is in fact town then we will be able to work with her to achieve a pro-town shot.
If Noraa is scum and we pick a different scum first, then they know their partner is going down third regardless so they still choose to "night kill" as they have no incentive to do otherwise.
If Noraa is town and we pick scum first, then the same logic holds - they know we are going to kill Noraa third, they "night kill" and let us kill Noraa.

If we pick town, then scum second, then scum "night kills" regardless of Noraa's alignment and we have to deal with Noraa next phase.

What am I missing?

[UNOwen]

she has already said this is not going to happen if she is town

I have enough respect for Noraa as a player to believe that if town she does not kill someone she thinks is town, regardless of what she is saying right now.

p-edit
we want scum to have the third scroll more then the first scroll
because we want to limit the number of kills scum gets to make and that is how we do it

But we most want scum to have first and third scroll, which allows them to get a kill no matter what order we choose in this phase.

[UNOwen]

what percentage of town do you think would actually work with the rest of town when choosing who to shoot
be honest

No-one is going to take instruction.
I am an optimist though, I think most town players would at least consult on who they will go for.

[UNOwen]

what she was saying about killing LLD was to justify her kill of LLD.

as soon as she saw we were going to un-wagon her and slot her at 3 instead, she was like NOOOO GIVE ME THE SCROLL.

Which further shows she is def-scum.

Yes I saw that, I do not think she has much chance of actually being town.
The problem is if we hit non-Noraa scum first then they can just kill LLD anyway, so what is the upside?

[UNOwen]

then do you think Taylor is scum here? she states that pooky is scum and LLD is town but very anti town so she will kill LLD.
This is in fact my exact reasoning(except I don't think pooky is scum) and I actually said that was why I was going to kill LLD before Taylor did. I believe LLD is likely to be town but she squashes all opinions that don't agree with hers and is overly confident and aggressive.

Similarly I do not think town Taylor would actually go through with killing someone she thinks is town.

[UNOwen]

I think I can see the argument on mechanics now, it is not about improving the best outcome but maximising town's control over who dies. Not sure I am convinced that it would actually work yet, I will look at it again tomorrow.

[UNOwen]

Nah, UNOwen, it improves town's chances. The values LLD put out are accurate: we kill scum once, twice, or not at all. There's only one possible world where we hit scum twice and only one possible world where we hit scum none. If we hit one scum every time we win before game over. So if we treat the middle player as conftown and work with them, there is no downside: we get to shape the final kill (because we hit town, maximizing chances of a hit on the third, which maximizes chances of hitting two scum if we were lucky with the first scroll-recipient) or we already hit scum (because only scum has no reason to work with us). The mechanics argument is good for improving best outcomes too, don't be too hard on it.

No I agree with that, treating 2nd scroll holder as town is fairly clearly the way to go.

My issue is specifically with the "let's kill Noraa but as the last in line" plan that has been proposed, or I guess more generally the "hit the scummiest player last" plan. What has been suggested is that by doing this we deny the scum the chance to choose a kill. It does not improve best outcome for this phase.

The best we can get is either:
Noraa!scum -> "night kill" -> scum
scum -> "night kill" -> Noraa!scum

In both scenarios we end up with two scum dead and one town player of scum choosing being killed.

Where I now see merit is that if we miss on the two non-Noraa shots, we at least have ensured that town (as an individual or collectively) has control over who dies. But this advantage is only gained if we concede that two town players are dead and I'm uneasy about playing to improve the worst case scenario. My instinct is that although it would be good to prevent scum killing who they choose, attempting to outplay the game in this way would be very difficult when we are the ones in the dark and it could very easily lead to disaster.

[UNOwen]

You really think Taylor is scum here? Taylor standing up for me I generally consider town indicative because she has no business getting herself in hot water for a random townie that's perfect limbait if she's scum. Y'all say the "she wouldn't do this as scum" argument is bad but it literally isn't. I cannot see a single reason for why scum!Taylor would pull this play out right here, right now.

Reread that conversation then tell me if you still think I said what you appear to think I said.

[UNOwen]

Yo Bell, why are you voting shelly?

(Also I missed that you actually followed up on the reference yesterday, yes it is a pretty cool pun)

[UNOwen]

scum do not have a nightkill

the only way to get a nightkill is to sacrifice one of their members
thus in here they will have to give more effort to shade consensus TRs so they can miselim them at some point

I know, that is why it is "night kill" instead of night kill. What I mean is a scum directed kill, which they can do if we catch scum first or second and they feel no pressure to remain pretending.

[UNOwen]

yeah

so I was referring to shady/discrediting reads towards consensus TRs
I found you

Oh right I thought you were replying to my post. Nevermind.

[UNOwen]

idk I feel UNO is a player who I cant reeeeally get a grip on

there are posts shading Pooky (who I TR)
there are bussing Noraa posts in that iso

I think town!UNO has that "wow" factor from what I've seen of them and I haven't got that yet

Is an awesome and probably undeserved description of my play. Do not worry, I have faith you will change your mind eventually.
I feel you are misreading my reply to MUSH if you think I was attempting to claim credit or whatever though, I was just joking about the fact that my ISO at that point was indeed lazy.

[UNOwen]

Upsides
IF Nora town - full picture of the situation reduces odds of misunderstanding
IF Nora scum - they can easily get caught out in a direct lie here
Either way - any interaction with Noraa helps inform our reads on the slot.
No downsides

Did you feel there was a misunderstanding from either Noraa or LLD?

[UNOwen]

Question for anyone: Is there an overwhelming majority of players who think Noraa is scum or is there just an overwhelming majority of players who think LLD is going to make sure Noraa dies soon so aren't putting in too much effort?

[UNOwen]

nah noraaaaaaaa's obvscum

No I totally agree she is scum, just wondering if that's widely believed still.

[UNOwen]

@Theta and Vaxkiller: 1426 is interested in what you think.

[UNOwen]

Behavioralism. She's scum reading whoever gives her a hard time and town reads whoever doesn't. Also, I voted her way before she voted me so I can't be omgusing her, when she's omgusing me, but she keeps forgetting that.

Who would be your next vote?

[UNOwen]

I'm not sure. There's kind of like, 4-6 people I want to vote RN.
Lapsa, The guy that just replaced out. Hopkirk. Zdenek. pooky.
Maginally Theta

Pedit: I knew you'd say something like that.

This is a good list. I will get back to you soon-ish on shelly, but I believe she is town here.

[UNOwen]

i do not want to read noraa at this point
but strictly speaking
i want to believe noraa is town
but she does suspicious stuff that makes me doubt that is actually the case

Please do?
Or if not, do the suspicious things you see override any desire for her to be town to make you think she is scum?

[UNOwen]

I wasnt even aware LLD was still trying to kill nora. I'll write this on my to do list.

Are you scum reading nora unowen?

I am yes.

[UNOwen]

tryhard taylor = scum-taylor

town taylor is a lurker who posts shitty dog pictures

How many games have you played with town Taylor?

[UNOwen]

1 completed?
can't talk about ongoing

Ok. I also have a completed game with town Taylor, and really don't think "lurker who posts shitty dog pictures" fairly characterizes her play.

[UNOwen]

254 this feels like it was premeditated
i mean seriously it feels like this exchange between noraa and adorable was planned out ahead of time
why is a self-proclaimed newbie attacking adorable and effectively daring them to vote themselves
and not attacking hopkirk who had placed a blank vote
or unowen who had an rvs vote

Yes exactly. Noraa is not a fool, if she fears that she has been caught and is 100% going down then I believe her instinct would be to perform some sort of distancing with one of her partners. The highlighting of the Adorable post was pretty strong considering the context of Noraa getting swarmed that was going on. "Theres so many questions that I get when I see this post that I am definitely SRing you for it. I think I'd actually like to place my vote here bc I want to put some pressure on you." sounds like a very calculated statement, not naturally worded at all. Noraa later follows up with declaring she would give the scroll to Adorable too. However at no point does Noraa reach out to other players to support the Adorable vote, which I think she would if town and convinced she had identified a clearly scummy player hopping on the wagon. That she has this reaction to Adorable but is apparently not alarmed about the way I have lazily sat on her wagon (unlike both shelly and taylor) has further suggested to me that something is up.

On Adorable, she is busy and it is not clear that she has completely caught up so perhaps there will be better information later. But the vote was awkward as anything, independent of Noraa's alignment. Noraa is right that the whole "I don't understand why Noraa is defensive?" was a scummy question to ask. The implication is clear but instead of just stating a suspicion and acting on it there is a smoke screen of questioning to build up to the vote. Then immediately in 277 the facade drops, Adorable thinks Noraa is sus and declares she would give the scroll to Noraa. This looks like scum attempting to find their way onto a wagon.

[UNOwen]

While Nora is doomed, I still feel its good to form an opinion. It helps others read you and your future reads. One of your reads was based on flip, which I assume now is a solid read too.

What is your read on Noraa atm?

[UNOwen]

If we are not doing Noraa first then I would lean more on Unowen is scum which was mentioned earlier. And also I wanted to add on #101 what Theta said are my thoughts exactly. On #680 it looked like Isis also had the same thoughts as me and Theta which makes me think Isis is also probably town with Theta. On #708 Unowen said Isis is suspicious and I would have assumed town Unowen would have picked up on what Theta was saying on #101 and would have also assumed Isis also picked up on this too and would have leaned town on Isis. This makes me think scum did not know town were asked to confirm that scum had daytalk.

Are you reviewing the game currently or in catch-up?

[UNOwen]

I agree with MURDERCAT on scroll sequencing.

[UNOwen]

I saw you say Noraa is scum and you also put me as scum. So from what you are saying it looked like you are accusing me for bussing Noraa. On your last sentence here you made I'm interpreting it as if it looks like you are town reading Noraa and you are saying scum is hopping on the town wagon. So which is it now?

I don't know how you read that post and think it is a Noraa town read. I think you are both scum.

[UNOwen]

Ok, someone explain how a scumkill be negated in this setup?

Are we presuming if we hit scum on the last round then it's negated?

Yes.

[UNOwen]

So effectively, we need to find two scums to end the day. Who is the consensus second? Have we been using HURT tags to indicate a preference?

There is no consensus second, and we have been doing nothing of that sort. It is expected that whichever town takes the scroll will not be listening to instruction, except for this phase where there appears to be consensus that Noraa should be one of the cursed.

[UNOwen]

Why wouldn't we want the town who takes the scroll to have direction?

Direction yes, instruction no.

[UNOwen]

Why? It's not like there's a mob doctor.

Because most people will want to have some degree of autonomy over their venge-kill.

[UNOwen]

idk
this post is actually town!AI and vibing with my own thoughts
adorable is not locktown but they're def not a good wagon

Shelly, do you honestly, sincerely, hand on heart, vibe with the thoughts expressed in 1549?

[UNOwen]

Noraa's read list was interesting enough, but she is very capable of high effort as scum in this situation. It's a bit mean if she is town but we are in a game state where there appears to actually be an overwhelming majority that thinks she is scum so I believe the best way forward is to clarify that at the first opportunity. Going through the process of cursing two players while this is hanging over the game does not seem a very smart idea.

Adorable's spiderweb accusation against me which connected together posts from three different players was pretty earnest, which could suggest newbtown. I think it will be possible to get a more solid read there as they post more.

[UNOwen]

I don't reeeaaaaaally vibe with hard TR theta because im having a townlean-ish there aorn but the rest of that looks good

Lolwat.
Talk me through it.

[UNOwen]

theta is a tone/gut read because the content is not mind-blowing in that iso

No talk me through 1549.

[UNOwen]

On this day and _____ that has ended except mod hasn't checked thread yet
so thats two scum games that I promised reads yet never really gave them a high efforted one like promised

Eh, my enduring memory from On This Day is that you kept swinging way after everyone had confirmed-scum you and in _______ you certainly did make a read list despite being done for, it is etched in my mind as about 20% of the reason I got paranoid at the end. I suppose they were not as substantial as this game though.

Q: Why did you think that I should not view you as scum in this game based on the games we have played (at the point you asked me)?

[UNOwen]

theta is a tone/gut read because the content is not mind-blowing in that iso

No talk me through 1549.

[UNOwen]

Commentary on that post and why you vibe with it.

[UNOwen]

Shelly my understanding of "vibing" is "thinking along the same lines"/"agreement" so are we having a misunderstanding here?

[UNOwen]

p-edit no we are not having a misunderstanding, I agree with the contents of that post

So you think that:
- Theta dropped a town tell by sharing info about town role PM that mafia may not know
- That Isis town read Theta solely because they picked up on this
- That a town player would pick up on these two things and think that suggests mafia did not know about the day-talk confirmation request and therefore conclude that Isis and Theta are town.
- That specifically I would make these connections and therefore not even be slightly suspicious of Isis

[UNOwen]

uno what is the point of asking me to follow up on something that i have made clear

I'm not clear how you can agree with that post.

[UNOwen]

Like think it is townie - yes
Actually follow the logic and agree with it - ????

[UNOwen]

that was not a town tell
the only reason i would even talk about it was because it was public information

I know it was not a town tell.

[UNOwen]

I think your reaction to it being talked about is a town tell though.

[UNOwen]

Like think it is townie - yes
Actually follow the logic and agree with it - ????

as i said before im not a great fan of spelling out all my trajectories and instead prefer to keep that to my notes pt

but i do follow the logic and im not sure how you aren't able to see that????

So you are saying that you noticed post 101 and thought it was a town tell.
You noticed that Isis town read Theta and assumed it was because of the town tell, and think that was itself a town tell of Isis
You think that at the point where I was mildly suspicious of Isis but not to the point of actually raising it I would have noticed these things and dismissed my suspicions of Isis because of it.
And that I would make all these connections but not have known that in the skellytrumpet post there is a sample role pm which disproves all of this theorising?

[UNOwen]

What shelly, plz respond?????

[UNOwen]

Like think it is townie - yes
Actually follow the logic and agree with it - ????

as i said before im not a great fan of spelling out all my trajectories and instead prefer to keep that to my notes pt

but i do follow the logic and im not sure how you aren't able to see that????

So you are saying that you noticed post 101 and thought it was a town tell.
You noticed that Isis town read Theta and assumed it was because of the town tell, and think that was itself a town tell of Isis
You think that at the point where I was mildly suspicious of Isis but not to the point of actually raising it I would have noticed these things and dismissed my suspicions of Isis because of it.
And that I would make all these connections but not have known that in the skellytrumpet post there is a sample role pm which disproves all of this theorising?

[UNOwen]

why does the sample role pm even matter towards all this logic

Why do you think post 101 was regarded by Adorable as a town tell?

[UNOwen]

I guess so but I don't see why my logic is bad? Like there is a good chance of T>S>T here.

Your logic gets stronger the bigger the chance of Noraa town.

[UNOwen]

Shellllyyyyyy.

[UNOwen]

Shellllyyyyyy.

[UNOwen]

So tell me Uno. On this day was bad right? I was widely SRed and went down really fast.
But then after 2 entire scum games, I went into So many bats and what happened? I was widely TRed. If it weren't for a weak fn targeting me, do you really think I would've died that fast? My playstyle got so much better and I literally fooled everyone to hell and back. You really think it would get twenty billion times worse this fast? I literally 100% of the time make it to endgame if I am scum unless someone guilties me. Does that really not say something about my scum game?

My town game is bullshit compared to my scum game. It is very obvious. Uno you should know. Plus this may be a bad argument but like ... you really think all three games you play with me I will be scum? No. I think you are just being paranoid like duppin. Sure, both games he SRed me in(that have finished), I was scum. But I absolutely think it was paranoia against me that resulted in those. My scum game gets me universally TRed. My town game gets me universally SRed. I think its very clear what's up.

Right, I'm glad that game has finished so we can talk about it properly. Yeah exactly, OTD you flailed around and I thought at the time "is this scummy or just Noraa?". Then the Bat game happened, your scum game had improved and I found myself thinking "there is less flailing going on here, so maybe this is town Noraa" and you were still scum. Then I saw you flailing, and thought that I'm not going to dismiss scummy things as just "______" things this time. Because it is true your play in Bats was much stronger, but also I now know that the person who was pressing you the most in that game was your own scum partner, so I'm not sure that is a relevant example. As far as my experience with you goes you have a 50% strong scum game record, it could be the second that was the outlier.

I have never seen you as town, why should I know?

[UNOwen]

because I specifically quoted things from a town game where I was tunneled day 1.

So not based on our previous games?

[UNOwen]

no one tunneled me in that game. I was universally TRed. That is my point. If I can get universally TRed, why would scum!me choose to go about a game in the way I did?

But you didn't choose how this game went?
Pooky called you out on a meta tell, then LLD swung hard at you. None of that was in your control.

[UNOwen]

LLD swung hard at me. Yeah. But like scum!me would likely just lay low for a bit and watch town tear itself up, come back and jump on a wagon.

That you say this doesn't help me.

Give me some meta of you as scum under pressure, if it exists.

[UNOwen]

I hyperposted the last two days but before that I was a semi lurker

I will review it at some point but if you did not receive too much flack early that still isn't really comparable to this game.

[UNOwen]

@Hopkirk - Do you enjoy kite flying?

[UNOwen]

I was at E-1 at one point but continued to just lurk until I found the perfect opportunity to direct attention elsewhere

A) 409 posts = semi-lurker, this is the difference between you and I
B) I skimmed around the areas you got put at E-1, the wagon pressure was much less intense
c) You posts

were

more controlled

I'm not entirely sure that was a productive use of my time.

I saw that you've got me as a town read from my ISO. In Bats I was pretty well tunneled all of day 1 but I still made a sincere effort to sort Redados, I have done nothing of the sort for you so far. Why are you cutting me so much slack here?

[UNOwen]

I was going to follow up to Bell with shelly. The point was (correct me if I'm wrong) that shelly has behaviour that depends on how people are reading her. My counterpoint was going to be that I don't recall this being a noticeable feature of her scum game. What I do recall is that she was hyper aggressive and acted as though she was constantly assessing the game. My read on her so far is that she has been more cautious, certainly no nonsense reaction tests or read list spamming. There was the super confident Noraa read but most of the game also had that so I wasn't troubled by it. However I'm beginning to wonder if I am naive in thinking I have a good handle of her game based on one experience. I think Bell made a point about shelly de-escalating but not actually reevaluating. She has done a similar thing with me now, earlier on she accused me of trying to claim credit for the Noraa wagon, I responded by saying that "juicy and filling" was not meant as a serious description of the five or so words I had given before then, she seemingly accepted that and said my response was slightly town AI, then later I see she has repeated the exact same claim with no hint she had even considered my response. So maybe there is a point here.

What's bothering me the most though is that I think she is talking utter rot about the Adorable post and has been slippery both times I attempted to get her to clarify. I would really like to see shelly actually engage with my questions here.

[UNOwen]

Be direct with your words or they aren't worth much.

Exactly.

[UNOwen]

Be direct with your words or they aren't worth much.

Exactly.

Or if that is not clear, I'm saying that if you are town you ought to substantiate your suspicion of me at some point instead of just asking if anyone is up for a wagon.

[UNOwen]

I'm up for four wagons here. I'm not really up for a vanity wagon with two days to go.

pedit - Strahd doesn't stand a chance.

You could always try making an argument?
I was waiting for your ISO so I had something to engage with, but if you're floating my death before doing that then some sort of justification of your thoughts would be good.

[UNOwen]

@UNO I don't get what you arent satisfied by my responses towards you wanting me to explain the Adorable post
Can you point me to what you want me to answer

Ok I know this is getting really pedantic now, but I want to follow your logic here.

First: Did you interpret 101 as a town tell from Theta when you first read it?
I presume you're claiming the answer is yes.

Second: Did you interpret Isis townreading Theta as suggesting she had picked up on the towntell?
I presume again the answer is yes.

Third: Did you then interpret that as Isis also towntelling?
I presume again the answer is yes.

Fourth: Do you think that the entire game except me thought this or is it just specifically me who is supposed to be the mind reader?
I presume just specifically me.

Fifth: Did you therefore think that it was suspicious that I did not make these connections and so dismissed any concern about Isis when I voiced the one mildly suspicious thing that I thought about her in response to you asking me on my thoughts?
I presume the answer is yes.

Sixth: Do you think that is an at all reasonable accusation and are you thinking I am aware or not aware of the sample role pm at any point?

[UNOwen]

Shelly did I miss your response to my last post?

[UNOwen]

VOTE: Lapsa
Will switch to Toogeloo if this doesn't look like a viable wagon when I log in tomorrow morning. But if we are deadline eliminating, I'd prefer to deal with the borderline trolling player who may well be scum than the probtown demob-happy self-voting panda (who I pretty much entirely sympathise with).

[UNOwen]

UNVOTE: Lapsa
VOTE: Toogeloo

Well I tried. Not interested in voting Taylor.

[UNOwen]

Will switch to Toogeloo if this doesn't look like a viable wagon when I log in tomorrow morning. But if we are deadline eliminating, I'd prefer to deal with the borderline trolling player who may well be scum than the probtown demob-happy self-voting panda (who I pretty much entirely sympathise with).

whoever that is trying to start wagons is being anti town
we have no time
we have no time at all

~30 hours from deadline.

Noraa
UNOwen
Bell

Lapsa

Vaxkiller

explanations when im off work

...

Yes, I am confident we can get enough votes on Taylor Swift to end the day.

I doubt we could get enough votes on Tayl0r Swift though

It's desperation day. Our time is limited. Toogeloo wagon is dead as well for some reason and scum are lurking so they get their pick

No.

Everyone change your votes to Taylor Swift.
Momentum will get us there.

boom lets try then
VOTE: Tayl0r Swift

~20 hours from deadline.

Quality stuff.

[UNOwen]

It was discussed and is a fair accusation to say I've been disengaged. But can you blame me? Less than a day until deadline and the vote count is a total horror show. Noraa became scum read by so many so fast that it looked like scum must have decided to bus en masse, and even the 2-3 players who thought she was town conceded that her death was inevitable. Sensible procedure in my mind is to get to the higher information game state and then reevaluate from there. Not here though: LeT's nOt v0Te fOr MoSt lIkEly sCuM. I'd say it was a scum tactic to poison the game state except practically the entire thread signed up for it. No problem with not wanting to vote Noraa because you think she is town, but it's a different story if you were scumreading her. Idk how anyone reads Noraa's posts since she returned from VLA and thinks "there's a town player willing to game throw by venge-killing obvtown!". The only possible reasoning is to stop scum from choosing a kill, which means we kill two town first and anyway assumes that Noraa is confirmed scum, which was never the case. This logic is so strange to me I've had a difficult time getting a grip on this game.

(P.S @Noraa - I assure you I don't hate anyone though )

[UNOwen]

FWIW I no longer believe Noraa is scum, not because I think effort posting is beyond her scum game but because shelly is being so disingenuous now that I think she must be scum herself and a Noraa/shelly team just isn't what's happening here.

[UNOwen]

VOTE: Lapsa

Will switch to Toogeloo if this doesn't look like a viable wagon when I log in tomorrow morning.

But if we are deadline eliminating, I'd prefer to deal with the borderline trolling player who may well be scum than the probtown demob-happy self-voting panda (who I pretty much entirely sympathise with).

[UNOwen]

Finally. I recommend cursing shelly for dodging 2151 1000000 times.

[UNOwen]

also, your post is a pretty big exaggeration. I'm not scum reading everyone who tunneled, nor did I say I was. I remember not liking the reactions of some of those around your voting.

Who were these players?

[UNOwen]

Who were these players?

Good question UNOwen, because Vax had no idea about Toogeloo when they were first voted and he decided to end the day pushing a Bell wagon.

[UNOwen]

MUSH's blitz list is fantastic, only requires slight amendment.

shellyc
Lapsa
Hopkirk
Pooky
Zdenek

[UNOwen]

Flea thinking I am scum because I am "proud" of bussing Noraa but somehow ending up voting for shelly and wanting both of us to flip before Noraa would make for a wonderful flow chart.

[UNOwen]

What motive does Adorable scum have to switch things up with a Vax scumread when she could just stick to her guns and go reasonably unchallenged?

[UNOwen]

do you think that's scummy? since flea isn't on Your List

I'd like to say that's pretty blatantly a false thought process so therefore scum, but under the world of "kill obvscum last" I'm not so sure.

My list is MUSH's list, I'm not attempting to solve the game with it. Think there is probably 2 scum within there atm, but flips on any of them would be good (except for Lapsa, who I have no reason to think is scum but may as well be killed sooner rather than later when we have less room for error).

[UNOwen]

UNO coming in and not addressing the vaxkiller things, 3456 is quite deflecty and I dislike that

I see the Vax thing. I highly doubt he had given me too much thought until he had to come up with another name for the Toog-list. This again should be scummy, but it's not clear if he is actually pretending to have a strong suspicion of me or is just throwing me in there because no one in particular trusts me.

[UNOwen]

What motive does Adorable scum have to switch things up with a Vax scumread when she could just stick to her guns and go reasonably unchallenged?

I suppose I don't see what's so special about Adorable's Vaxkiller read. It reads the same as all of her other scumreads to me.

Her earlier posts did not mention Vax/Isis suspicion at all, in fact the opposite. She could have just ignored that slot and replaced them with Flea or someone. Placing Vax as top scum read does not fit with the narrative of her posts, so it feels like a natural development.

[UNOwen]

Actually

Vaxkiller's play makes no sense. Earlier he randomly votes me and then says Bell is shading but still leaves his vote on me. On #2509 Vaxkiller said he's glad he voted you but he never voted you and he lied. Lapsa's vote switch on me when a wagon started to build on Toogeloo during my absence looked sus.

Do you no longer think Isis town reading Theta was a town-leaning thing to do?

[UNOwen]

do you think changing reads is scummy in of itself?

do you think townies should stick with their first read and never re-evaluate?

Do you think either of these things is characteristic of your town-play, scum-play or depends on the game?

[UNOwen]

Hey Unowen, you asked me several times to go through your stuff and you haven't commented on the place where I did that yet.

I feel that I did, in that I conceded I do not yet have great enthusiasm in this game. If I make it throuhg this phase and we have some flips I will hopefully be more engaged. That was more or less your main point and is something Noraa identified too. She has the correct interpretation that it is NAI, I only have one scum game but was ok in feigning pro-activity for that, although I continue to be a little concerned that she reached that conclusion based on our two games together. Since you asked though I will give it more attention.

So for UNOwen I could go through their iso quoting half their posts, but it's easier to get a sense of this if you read the whole thing. They have no meaningful presence in this game. I can't find one meaningful thing in the second half of their iso. It's all just hollow, shallow, 'I'm here and speaking' but it doesn't actually say anything. Nothing Unowen says advances the gamestate. It's commentary and random comments but it's not actually doing anything. I can't even tell what their reads are beyond the vaguest sense. Can't even see who they want to lethal and it doesn't feel like they care. General vibe is just a 'keeping the presence and flying under the radar while people get into conflicts and dodge the lethal.'

I wanted to curse Noraa, because the case was as strong as I've seen for day 1 and everyone (except 3(?)) was scum reading her. Her death was being pushed as inevitable for reasons I agreed with so making that happen would advance the game state more than any speculating under false assumptions that I could have offered.

So in these two posts Unowen is basically locked into the Noraa vote after making it in RVS. Tries to act both times as though their vote had any meaningful impact on the wagon and glosses over the actual cases on Noraa at this stage. Coasting nil effort and trying to let it build.

My vote came about before Noraa even posted. It clearly had no impact on the Noraa wagon.

In the above two posts, the below ones, and above ones you can see Unowen only does stuff when promopted. There's so many cases of 'if you want me to do x then ask' which doesn't give me any sense of proactivity/enthusiasm.

The reads also suck. Noraa read doesn't seem justified beyond consensus despite not engaging with the case in a way that they'd take flak for on a townflip. The other 3 reads (me at the time, Zor, Ador) are all just low activity players, unsubstantiated, and look like fishing for LHF.

Again fair. My reads were vague and basically non-existent. I thought we were about to enter a stage with much more information than usual this early in the game due to the massive Noraa push. I like to go one step at a time. Treating Noraa as confirmed scum and then scum hunting with that in mind is alien to me. Allowing other players to get away with that is also alien to me.

Fence sitty as hell. From this point on it's unclear how UNOwen reads Noraa outside of their vote staying on. Seems like trying to distance from the wagon while still wanting it to go through by doing nothing to get any other wagons gaining momentum and sitting on it until deadline forces it then tries to avoid any blame for it. Feeds into my overall read of scum lightposting and trying not to rock the gamestate.

I mean, I think the fact that I said the wagon should go through displays my attitude. I was reading Noraa as scum but was no longer sure and felt that since the majority agreed we should just flip her and reevaluate. It is never the aim to flip town, but if Noraa did so it would force many players in the game to review their perspective (shelly, Pooky, Toogeloo, Flea, Theta, Adorable, LLD) and offer much needed clarity on what was going on.

[UNOwen]

Town indicative from Adorable imo.

Yes I agree.

[UNOwen]

Shelly is pocketing fidget. Clear as day what's happening there. My brain just went *snip snip snip* byeeeee
And then UNO comes in and blah blah blah blah. My brain dont wanna read it this beautiful fine morning so sucks to suck, Im not reading it cuz I got other threads to check.

Wow rude. Back to one-liners then...

[UNOwen]

depends on the game and how much I reread

Ok because your solve is literally the one you came up with in 504, plus me who you've been suspecting from my first post, plus Lapsa for the sake of it. So the trajectories from your pt must look like a straight line.

Also 2151.

[UNOwen]

Also shelly, you have been convinced Noraa is scum from the get go but have done precisely zero to help get her killed, even as more and more players started wavering on that read. Instead just a Bell tunnel that went nowhere for 100 pages.

[UNOwen]

sorries:(
I'll .... maybe read it later.

Is fine, that post is only because Hopkirk wanted a response.

Of course shelly comes in to dishonestly accuse me of filling space even though I am literally just replying to someone and would not have bothered if they did not ask.

[UNOwen]

That reveal needed a drum roll.
My recommendation is again shelly for dodging 2151 1000001 times.

[UNOwen]

Adorable makes a good point about Fidget's meta being a bit muddled. She speaks as though she has a bit of experience with Adorable as both alignments and acknowledges that Adorable's reads are reactive in this game but claims to not be familiar enough to know if this is AI, but I would think even a couple of games experience would be enough to have an idea.

I don't really see a scum case for Fidget beyond that though, was not a fan of the way she positioned around a Noraa scum flip that she was willing to put in third but plenty of players did that. She seems rational and cautious otherwise which I don't find compellingly scummy behaviour.

[UNOwen]

We all see shelly making no attempt to convince Vax to pass the scroll to "practically confirmed scum" (or whatever hyperbole she was using) Noraa right?

[UNOwen]

Lol @ this blatant scum panic from shelly and possibly Hopkirk too.

[UNOwen]

Hectic in "So Many Bats":

Spoiler:

Hopkirk in this game:

Spoiler:

[UNOwen]

Not as good a kill as shelly, but a good kill none the less.

[UNOwen]

We're gonna get a lot of info out of a hopkirk flip and I have quite a few joint ISOs to do if he flips red. Vax, you think shelly and hopkirk have high partner equity?

Super high partner equity. If Hopkirk flips scum, shelly should be receiving the scroll posthaste.

[UNOwen]

Provisionally OK with cursing Fred.
Always OK with cursing shelly.

Yo Flea, updated reads on (Noraa, shellyc, Theta, Fred, UNOwen) with justifications?

[UNOwen]

Tayl0r's reads are trash too. But she ISO'd Theta and found that Theta had been townreading Toog all along. I trust she wouldn't lie about something so easily disproven. For me, that's work I don't need to do on Theta and makes Theta likely to be scum regardless of Tayl0r's alignment.

Taylor was not talking about Toogeloo, the only mention from Theta that I could find regarding alignment was that they were "generally suspicious".

for those who see theta suddenly in town after me just questioning theta and go ????
theta complaining that those people died pinged me, so i checked the iso. t

heta did townread them and went out of his way to stick up for them.

its not my most confident townbin ever, but im satisfied for now. im pretty confident that this game is solvedish. or at least that this is a winning PoE.

Please quote where you believe that happens.

[UNOwen]

UNOwen: Scum - I made a post previously and I stick to that.

That said, I don't believe in Nora/UNOwen as a duo.

!
You realise that your previous post was advancing the "UNO knows that Noraa will flip scum so is setting Adorable up as a partner" theory that Adorable suggested? And that your accusation was of me being "proud and knowing" about Noraa's alignment?

What from our interactions make us an unlikely scum team since then?

[UNOwen]

go to theta's iso, search for the names of those who flipped.

That's exactly what I did. And because that's exactly what I did, I may have missed something. What I did see was that Theta didn't want Hopkirk to die before Noraa but explicitly didn't town read them, and I could not find anything suggesting a Vaxkiller/Isis town read or that would qualify as sticking up for them.

[UNOwen]

Tayl0r’s right and dead town Isis/Vax also tr that slot.

Aren't you quoting the post that pinged Taylor in the first place?
I town lean Theta but Isis saying Theta's town is not the same as Theta saying Isis is town.

[UNOwen]

I don’t understand your point and I won’t even pretend to have read a majority of this game. Isis/Vax is dead town who tr Theta and Tayl0r also tr Isis and is also tr Theta. I can look through Tayl0r’s ISO where she hard trs Isis if you like?

No I know that. It's this bit which I am asking about:

for those who see theta suddenly in town after me just questioning theta and go ????
theta complaining that those people died pinged me, so i checked the iso.

theta did townread them and went out of his way to stick up for them.

its not my most confident townbin ever, but im satisfied for now. im pretty confident that this game is solvedish. or at least that this is a winning PoE.

[UNOwen]

She’s literally saying “it’s not my most confident townbin ever but [that she’s] satisfied for now” or am I missing something here?

Either you are or I am.

The point is that Taylor was exaggerating, unless I missed something which is possible but I guess unlikely now from the lack of response. It's debatable on Hopkirk (I interpreted 1797 as a rejection of a Hopkirk townread) but there's no mention or defense of a Vax town read.

Sadly, it's not as simple as "making stuff up = scum" but I still think it's worth calling out in case the response is AI.

[UNOwen]

UNOwen - total scumbucket here with no engagement unlike their towngame which was relatively solvey as the game went on, UNO has really dropped off a cliff, top priority today if i wasn't duelling with fidget.

Explain what you mean by this?

[UNOwen]

i believe I have made myself clear

what do you need me to explain?

How did I get relatively solvey as the game went on?

[UNOwen]

shelly my problem is that I would love it if you are scum, but there's a world where you are just way off the mark and town and since we had a complete fail the first day it's important to give that world a proper consideration.

You complain that I obsess over the Adorable post, but the reason I do is it illustrates exactly what is going on. A neutral observer who seriously considered the argument would quickly see that the logic does not stack up but instead you breezily "+1'd" the post and moved on. Whenever I attempted to get you to actually think about it you dodged the question, and then said I was scummy because I tried to get a response from you. That you didn't even see the relevance of the sample role PM proving that Theta was not town telling shows you weren't actually paying attention.

Same deal when you accused me of being anti-town for trying to get a Lapsa policy execution going so close to deadline (in retrospect would have been a much better move than what ended up happening but whatever) then went on to try and get a Taylor wagon in gear. You tried to excuse yourself by pointing out that you said you'd switch from Taylor if necessary, completely ignoring that I said exactly the same thing when I voted Lapsa. Clear double standards.

What I get from this is that you've been more concerned with making me look scummy than actually trying to find out if I am scum or not. The trouble is, it's been said a lot that you have a scummy town game so I'm not sure whether I'm right in thinking that this behaviour requires you to be scum.

[UNOwen]

Maybe I’m still not getting it then? because what I got out of it was that Tayl0r hards trs Isisi who hard tr Theta, so beyond that, I’m not following.

Taylor said she thought Theta complaining about the deaths of Vax and Hopkirk was suspicious. Presumably because complaining about someone's death after the fact is a way for scum to reposition themselves on the right side of an argument.

Taylor then said that she no longer found that suspicious, because when she searched Theta's ISO she found that Theta did in fact "town read and stick up for" both Vax and Hopkirk, showing that Theta was being consistent in her thoughts.

I then reviewed Theta's ISO. Hopkirk there's some leeway but it's clear to me that Theta did not "town read and stick up for" Vax at any point.

Therefore Taylor either misinterpreted something, I missed something or Taylor was lying about Theta town reading Vax.

[UNOwen]

Did she ever give any read on Isis?

I checked that as well, the only Isis read I saw was "can't read Isis" or something along those lines.

[UNOwen]

@Taylor
- Why is Fred town?
- What prompted 3573?

[UNOwen]

VOTE: Fred

[UNOwen]

Flea/shelly: "nonsense"
Me: "that's nonsense"
Flea/shelly: *crickets*

:/

[UNOwen]

what prompted that post was toog's list. if someone in those 5 was getting scrolled that was my preference. toog ignored me, we hit town.

Why was Theta your preference over me?

[UNOwen]

Reading enough of the Noraa wagon to see her reaction and conclude it is scummy but not developing a corresponding LLD town read (or at least lean) does not sound terribly likely.

[UNOwen]

dumb this sentence down. I do not comprehend.

It's difficult to imagine someone reading the argument between you and LLD and thinking "hmmm yes I agree Noraa is scum but idk about LLD".

[UNOwen]

We can hit 1 scum today and be okay so I don't hate going for Fred, but you'll see why the Pooky vote there makes me uneasy. I think what happened on D1 is scum waited until a wagon on a townie could be pushed without much effort and I'm worried that is what is happening today too with Fred.

Why does scum need to push a wagon at all?
You and Hopkirk pushed that wagon, everyone else was just along for the ride because it was approaching deadline and no-one wanted to do anything else. The only reason scum might have needed to join to push it over is if one of them was likely to be a fall back execution. Same situation probably applies today.

[UNOwen]

I think Pooky's disillusionment is real, don't want to scroll him.

[UNOwen]

i do not really see the case on fredrick myself

Who is scum that is not Adorable?

[UNOwen]

Well scum want to look like they are doing something, you can't just sit around all game.

Idk Lapsa got by without too much trouble.

[UNOwen]

I mean I did have an SR there so at least my logic is consistent

Not your top scum read though, there was no appetite for his demise. I'd say scum has every incentive to just find a tunnel and wait it out unless it looks like one of them is being lined up. If Pooky wanted to just sit on Taylor all day and then compromise at the last second, or watch as everyone else compromises at the last second then I doubt he would have taken too much flack for it.

[UNOwen]

Well if I'd been scrolled I was planning on shooting there. Anyway, is the point that Pooky decided to vote earlier so he is town?

The point is that lazily joining the Fred wagon is not very scummy, and that the scum didn't need to push the Toogeloo wagon either unless Taylor is actually scum (and probably not even then). I think the tone of his posts mean town though.

[UNOwen]

Taylor I gather you don't remember why after having me as scum and Theta as unsure for most of day 1 you decided you wanted Theta to get the scroll over me when Toog posted their list, before going back to Theta unsure me scum shortly after?

[UNOwen]

How many scum do you think are on toog? 0?

Probably 2-3.

[UNOwen]

If you had to guess, who do you think they are?

I'd guess shelly is scum. Titus/Theta might contain scum. I see your point that LLD will be worth revisiting going forward, so possibly her. Maybe also at a stretch Noraa still. Quite comfortable that MUSH/Bell/you are town.

[UNOwen]

Why?

Because otherwise you are claiming that LLD bussing Noraa is a credible idea? Even if we entertain that possibility, it's not the type of impression that someone gets unless there has first been further evidence to force them to reconsider.

How did you reach that conclusion?

I read his posts.

[UNOwen]

Reminder that Zdenek was low key scummy. The (admittedly few) comments he made before replacing out looked like keeping up appearances for the sake of his scum-buddies, not like a town player trying to get back into a game. Granted, this is pretty weak considering the thread clearly got away from him regardless of alignment but Fred has not come in with a great townie aura. He's challenging Bell in the sort of way that scum might do trying to score a technical win but completely missing the point as to motivation. If you are town replacing into a game and someone tries to get you executed then they are going to be a natural focus of your perspective. I've got an increasingly good feeling about this wagon.

Gloria's questioning of Taylor is good but if she is trying to frame Fidget as a scum partner of Fred, then that suggests he is about to flip scum.

[UNOwen]

I think Fred scum points to a fairly disorganised team which should in theory not be too difficult to defeat so I hope that's the case.

Why is that not a credible idea? What exactly is there that is making you eliminate that possibility? Shouldn't the answer when there is no evidence be "I don't know" and not "it's not happening"?

Perhaps if I was brutally rational/honest I might accept that I have no capability in reading posts and making judgements about tone, but I've not experienced enough failure yet to convince me to stop trying. This goes for your second point as well.

I see. However, I only do that if someone actually makes an argument that I am scum. In the case of Bell simply just marching in here and voting me without bothering to make an argument, I simply ignore that player because I don't think they would succeed in what they are doing because they have no reason to be suspecting me.

That's it though, if someone is voting you and you think they have no reason to do so then most people will notice that not simply ignore it. I see you've made a meta argument here, but since you already have the scroll you'll forgive me for not reading it.

[UNOwen]

Are you making the argument that Tayl0r is bussing Fred here?

Taylor claiming Fidget is "saying Fred is town" is only scum motivated if she's knows we will soon be looking for Fred's partner. Although Taylor's explanation of what she meant actually makes more sense here. Having thought about it I also doubt Fred would have called out Taylor for townreading him without a reason if they were buddies - that seems overly ungrateful.

[UNOwen]

Not an easy mode free win then.
Shelly thinks I am obvscum but will not try very hard to get me killed because she knows as soon as the scroll is in my hands it will be heading in her direction.

I'm not sure about shooting Adorable. I think the general OMGUS focus shows a fairly consistent perspective but from what she says Adorable has a meta of doing this which might mean she is playing it up here. Will be interesting to see how she responds to the HURT at least.

[UNOwen]

3. I trust town LLD to hit scum

Why?
The rest of your argument only works if we presume LLD isn't going to start playing again at some point, which I'm still expecting.

[UNOwen]

@Flea - If you are in a talkative mood, you could respond to 4253?

[UNOwen]

@Fidget - can you elaborate on the MUSH town read?

[UNOwen]

3. Lackluster content focusing on me "vibing with adora" which has been explained ten million times yet UNO continues to be obtuse and ignore my explanations. also ignores everything else happening in the thread.

Dodged ten million times.

[UNOwen]

So, shouldn’t you be tr Shelley based on this, now that Hopkirk flipped town?

Nope, Hopkirk scum would have guaranteed shelly scum for me, but I don't think shelly is scum just because of Hopkirk interactions so my scum read on her remains regardless of his town flip, even if it did weaken my confidence a bit.

[UNOwen]

Why is Shelley scum?

4302, her scum read of me is pure dishonesty. 4299 was the third strike, she skipped answering because if she did she would be forced to admit that I was most solvey in endgame and that really can't be compared to the current game state.

[UNOwen]

I was comparing to mini normal 2168

So was I.

[UNOwen]

This is an amazing interpretation of my post

Nora and Adorable aren't a dirty duo, same as you and nora aren't a dirty duo. I specifically said "There's a definite sense of pride and knowing in UNOwens posts about Noraa."

What you specifically said was:

I gotta agree with Adorable in #1301. There's a definite sense of pride and knowing in UNOwens posts about Noraa.

And what Adorable specifically said was:

I'm scum reading both Noraa and Unowen.

Unowen said Noraa's wagon looked promising and then randomly mentions my vote which looked like he knows something about Noraa's alignment. Sometimes scum will link a scum buddy to a town player and this was the vibe I was getting from Unowen.

[UNOwen]

Fixed your bold for you.

Way to try and twist my words

So Adorable was clearly suggesting that I knew Noraa was scum and that's why my post was linked her to Noraa, but I suppose when you said you agreed with Adorable you actually meant you completely disagreed.

Ok.

[UNOwen]

I'm glad that the value of a high information flip is now appreciated but it would have been even better if that happened before four players had been cursed. I have some doubts about Noraa/Taylor still, so not against cursing on those grounds.

I don't think Adorable is scum here. Or even if she is scum, then one of her partners is shelly. Basically shelly is still my recommendation.

[UNOwen]

*WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM*

All active obvtown would have shot shelly here right?

*WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM*

[UNOwen]

Presuming Fred is indeed scum (and it

is

unlikely he would curse LLD without a word otherwise) I agree that Adorable has good odds of being scum now. Thought she was town because of the cool reaction to the scroll threat, but Fred!scum means she would've known all along what was going to happen so it's not worth anything. Red Adorable flip would be useful for hard clearing Fidget and Theta too. Would be my second choice after shelly.

Fred/shelly/Adorable/DGB/???? <- maybe scum team is something like this.

[UNOwen]

Fred!scum wanted to scroll Noraa so decided to do it by proxy and gave it to inactive LLD instead of the already set up Adorable?
I don't believe it.

[UNOwen]

Most obvtown after Fred scum flip are Bell and MUSH (and MUSH was universally obvtown anyway). Why has Fred not passed the scroll to either of these players?

[UNOwen]

Actually yeah maybe Fidget after all, that "town read/no I'm not townreading them/well not anymore" stuff was quite weird.

[UNOwen]

My thinking is that they have less favorable scum reads

This is also my thinking.

@Gloria - no, I'm pretty sure he is scum.

[UNOwen]

Scum would never shoot adorable that was obviously a placeholder to make us think Fred was town while he waited for feedback from his scum friends

What is happening

The Titus theory is that this was an attempt to get Noraa killed. I'm saying, no this was an attempt to kill obvtown that isn't going to shoot back.

[UNOwen]

Town:
MUSH
Bell
MURDERCAT
Gloria ?
Taylor ?
Pooky ??
Noraa ????
Theta ????????

Dunno:
DGB
Titus
Flea

Good curse targets:
shelly
Adorable
Fidget

Obviously I don't believe all of the curse group are scum together. My thought was that Bell and MUSH both suspected shelly (MUSH recently, Bell less so) which meant neither was cursed so that shelly could dodge the scroll like she dodges my questions. But Gloria raises a good point that Fidget is a possibility here, both had mentioned suspecting her too. Between Fidget and Adorable, Fidget admittedly makes for a cleaner partner with Fred due to the confused "townread" and the lack of WIFOM necessary. Scum Fidget would mean shelly looks much better (and definitely clear Adorable) so I might not be giving the idea as much credence as I should because of that.

[UNOwen]

You are killing me solely off of how Fred interacted with me?

Well you're still not my preference of the three but pretty much yes that's why you're in the kill zone. Would be a weak town lean like Theta outside of that, mostly because I agree with your perspective of the game but I can't deny that Fred's awkwardness about how he was reading you looks bad. You're a decent explanation for the LLD kill if I'm wrong about shelly too.

[UNOwen]

Based on this and knowledge that I'm town I'm kind of plus town points for adorable for the Fred stuff

I don't get it?

[UNOwen]

Re: MUSH

This:

Spoiler:

Reminder that Shelly tried to start /two/ counterwagons. One was just as Fred was getting started, the other was at the stall point of the wagon.

What stops Shelly and Taylor from being wrong town though?

Nothing stops it. I've already been wrong once this game (Hopkirk -- I was fairly sure Toog was town but was feeling time pressure, and I needed to dig into Vax before I had an opinion, then that became irrelevant). No one is immune to being wrong, or we could pick that person to do all the science for the rest of us.

I would have thought that was self-evident, though, so I didn't say it. Also, what's the point? Confidence lets me get ahead of the game on a red flip, and honestly if we don't hit scum this pass I think we're in for a long, grueling, miserable late game loss anyway, so confidence also keeps my interest alive.

I do think that scum is in the townblocs and sitting pretty, though. I think Fred's wagon stalled and they had over-distanced from each other too hard to create a useful narrative for building a counterwagon in time. Hence being in the townblocs -- we have a lot of prominent players who don't like each other but get a ton of townreads from the outside. Lurkers could naked-vote a different wagon, or Adorable could do another pass at Noraa though I think that ship has sailed -- oh wait, Adorable DID do that, so sure, Adorable can be scum, whatever.

But this doesn't account well for many -- you have to presume most of the scum is in lurkslots (which makes yesterday look like a freak coincidence where we precisely miss the few scum in the category) or that most of the scum is in consensus scumreads (which is weird since it's mostly consensus town slots getting those out of trouble, e.g. me with Noraa) or that the scum has at least some presence in townblocs. Which means that our townreads are going to be covering for 2-4 scum.

IF I am right about that, we need to rely on scrolled town shooting from the hip and taking no direction in the process, because scum is inside the town decision loop and building our consensus for us. If we let town help direct scroll-passes, scum that has near-universal townreads gets to control where it lands, and we never hit two scum in a day.

It also means we need to start doing serious VCA, and paying close attention to the context of that VCA. Some examples, right?

Shelly looks awful here if Fred flips red, not because of her position in the vote-counts, but because she jumped on, off, back on, back off of the wagon (and I don't recall her getting back on at the end) and kept trying to get attention spotlighting her when she hopped off.
Adorable looks sorta bad here if Fred's red, because of the eleventh hour Noraa push long after everyone else has sort of ruled Noraa out (though I'm reconsidering for the reasons I'm going into here).
I and Bell (but more me) look pretty bad in a world where Fred flips green, because we were the /primary drivers/ of this wagon, especially me. I think this is less useful for overall sorting, because I do believe my reasons for the scumread were damned good, and it's the ...what, second time Bell has shown animation about a wagon? Maybe even first. Also the first day's scroll hits show that town can't find town very well here, which does also diminish the degree to which we look bad. Or I'm biased and will be eliminated afterwards, but as I said: confidence, etc.!

This:

Spoiler:

No aggressive resistance to it, Tayl0r. Lots of more or less passive resistance, though. Resistance doesn't always take the form of "STOP NOW OR ELSE".

Shelly trying to pull votes onto different wagons (twice), Adorable attempting to resurrect a long-dead wagon, Gloria requiring a knockdown case that tickled her specific reads, MURDERCAT initially trying to resist softly then realizing that maybe their reads suck, Pooky trying to put more attention on you and themselves while the wagon was at a lull point. Add in you and Fred, and yeah, that's way more players than there are scum, but keep in mind scum distancing as well here -- defending too directly ties players to their scumbuddies. In a case where that scumbuddy isn't likely to go down, it's fairly safe. But Fred's wagon was more of a when than an if: his predecessor was Maximum Scum and his play was scummy even by the unique standards you have to read him by.

So passive defense is more likely for scum in such a position, because if they defend too hard it guarantees town goes 2-for-1 instead of 1-for-2. The scum team wants nothing less than that, because that's the path to a town win at this state (where we've already gone one day without hitting scum).

And this:

Spoiler:

For me, Fidget, Fred coming up red makes you more likely to be scum. Mostly because for the first time this game, you jumped -- and you were the hammer vote.

It's a minor shift, but significant. I see a Fidget+Shelly+Fred world as more likely than a Fidget+any-combo-without-Fred one. That said, I have other places I'd want to check before you.

Were the quotes that I was thinking of. Didn't pay attention to the third quote until Gloria raised her concerns and I looked back to consider Fidget. It's possible that scum might've thought Fidget was in danger there because of that, but I'd still say the overall message is that shelly would be receiving the scroll if MUSH got it.

[UNOwen]

I think this is a kind of standard scum play of trying to throw shit around, it seems kinda newb scum to say this if I'm being honest. So I think consistent with that would be fred doing the same thing to adorable. It's not a deep read but just something I noticed.

Yeah I can see this perspective, going for the WIFOM play is kind of a bold strategy too.

If we are talking small things we've noticed though I'll point out that way back I had my eye on a potential Zdenek/Adorable team because of this interaction:

Ah yes, I knew that my vote against Noraa would lead to good things.
The wagon looks promising, Noraa's reaction to the pressure has indeed been flaily.
Adorable's vote was not great.

@Zdenek - But what's it all about?

Laziness, and bolstering and attacking the wagon on Noraa in the same post.

Laziness, and bolstering and attacking the wagon on Noraa in the same post.

You believe that Adorable = the wagon?

Zdenek never responded, but he was bothered by me calling out Adorable specifically but mischaracterises it as an attack on the whole wagon. Thought this might be scum wanting to make a point but avoid drawing attention to their buddy.

[UNOwen]

Theta is a decent shot in the Adorable town world, would expect scum to find a cozy tunnel to sit in and that matches how she has been playing for a while. I think she is town though, the "town tell that wasn't a town tell but AHA! I knew it wasn't a town tell" situation was a slight town tell for me. I can easily imagine a town player making that move and then patiently waiting until it gets brought up to reveal that Ta-da! they knew all along. It was a bit too awkward for scum to bother with IMO.

[UNOwen]

HURT: Fred

happy?
i think we can force taylor to get rid of fred slot if she's town, and scum!Taylor will be much more dangerous to town vs. scum!fred

good afternoon my fellows

Taylor scum with Fred still
shelly/Taylor is clearly not a team and really forced

firstly, I didn't derail the wagon at all, and it has been stated that I basically tried to drive the wagon throughout the day. If I wanted to derail I'd have made a case and asked my TRs to sheep me. I tried to PRESSURE, to shake things up.

secondly, why would I derail scum!fred (who looks worse) into scum!Taylor (who looks better than Fred)

Shelly is rewriting history right in front of our eyes. How could Taylor be forced to get rid of Fred if she does not receive the scroll first?

[UNOwen]

The good thing is that LLD put it into HURT tags not a vote, so perhaps she was waiting for Theta’s reaction? I expect her to still insist it’s Adorable, irrespective of her alignment. In terms of info, her flip is only useful if red and then only about Adorable but if she’s town, it tells us nothing about Adorable.

Did Fred/Zdeneck even have any interactions with Theta?

Nope, no interactions. Pretty much no interactions this phase at all, which is part of the reason my Theta read is so low confidence. Agreed that a green Theta flip would mean nothing for Adorable's alignment.

[UNOwen]

VOTE: shellyc
This surely doesn't need much discussing? Two bullets she has dodged, let's just give her the damn scroll and be done with it.

[UNOwen]

HURT: Fred

happy?
i think we can force taylor to get rid of fred slot if she's town, and scum!Taylor will be much more dangerous to town vs. scum!fred

good afternoon my fellows

Taylor scum with Fred still
shelly/Taylor is clearly not a team and really forced

firstly, I didn't derail the wagon at all, and it has been stated that I basically tried to drive the wagon throughout the day. If I wanted to derail I'd have made a case and asked my TRs to sheep me. I tried to PRESSURE, to shake things up.

secondly, why would I derail scum!fred (who looks worse) into scum!Taylor (who looks better than Fred)

Shelly is rewriting history right in front of our eyes. How could Taylor be forced to get rid of Fred if she does not receive the scroll first?

[UNOwen]

Can you explain it to me?

See above, she lied openly about trying to derail the Fred!scum wagon onto Taylor.
-Her belief that I am scum is totally insincere (4302). She actually cases me at one point (4989 + 4991) and it was really weak and I can't imagine shelly is actually 80% convinced I am scum based on that.
-All active obvtown had decent chance at cursing shelly last phase, but instead scum decided to pass the scroll to LLD -> probably because they thought she would hit town.
-She pretended throughout the entire first phase to be completely convinced that Noraa was scum, but lost interest in pushing there once the rest of the thread had changed its mind
-Shelly goes from low WIM, sounding pretty unenthusiastic when Bell suggests passing the scroll to her to "fucking hell I hate you" when she "thinks" she has been handed the scroll. Does not sound like a consistent attitude.

I feel that she is pretty obvious at this point.

[UNOwen]

I be happy. Btw atm I wanna yeet shelly to the sun just bc she scummy af. I also wanna yeet UNO to the sun for lurking big time yesterday during the scroll passing periods and alivening the moment a new day starts.

Shelly is either scum and will probably curse me in vengeance or town who is irretrievably tunneled so will curse me anyway. Either way I doubt you will have to worry about my alignment for long. I am ready for Valhalla.

[UNOwen]

Noraa has technically dodged two bullets (D1 wagon and LLD showing up). Would you be fine wagoning her too?

Nope.

[UNOwen]

1) Almost no one thinks a case against them is strong.

2) Forces an assumption that all active town thought shelly was the only pass. This is a wrong assumption because Murder had a "hot take" and I had yet to make up my mind at all. Attempting to force your argument to be more popular than it is sucks.

3) So she's supposed to stay pushing a scumread no one else is listening to? There's 4 scum left, not one.

4) That attitude of why care I am dead to I fucking hate you because I want to play is consistent.

1)
Shelly's case:
1. I claim credit for Noraa wagon with my vote that was made before Noraa even posted. Clearly serious.
2. Adorable call out was explained later in the thread, but why read the posts of someone you are convinced is scum?
3. I try to get her to respond. She dodges. Then says I am scummy for not letting her dodge.
4. Post was pretty clear that we should execute Noraa for information.

And then because shelly must've realised her case was rubbish she adds in 5. I am not very proactive.

2)
You do not qualify as obvtown.
3)
No that wasn't the reason given (3494).
4)
No it isn't. Defeatist, oh well can't be bothered does not go to "WAIT WTF" like that.

[UNOwen]

@Shelly and uno
How do you feel about a 1v1?

It probably is a 1v1 already, so sure.

[UNOwen]

I think the shelly!town world is incredibly unlikely now.

[UNOwen]

Then she's not throwing the scroll at you either way now is she?
She'll throw at me, or mush, or murder, or somebody else. But she's not throwing it at you.
Unless she's town and even then, there are probably better throws out there.

I guess I feel I would be obvtown in the case of shelly scum, but sure maybe I don't get cursed in that case. For town!shelly, I have tried to engage her many times, just get dishonesty so I don't imagine there is any way of fixing her read.

[UNOwen]

bad town players can make bad cases - my townlean on uno comes from VCA and I find his terrible case on shelly to be NAI.

I don't case good but I read decent. Shelly has been shifty and insincere throughout this game, she has been determined to interact with me in bad faith, I don't see how this can be coming from town.

As for the bussing argument, the only other time I have played against shelly she cost herself the game because she tried to go for a fake claim to end it quickly instead of just bussing her majorly suspected partner and relying on her own good position to close it out. I had trouble figuring out whether she was lying because I couldn't find a good scum motivation for the play. So I completely believe scum!shelly would have non-intuitive behaviour when a buddy is under suspicion.

[UNOwen]

Owno

I think this is my favourite abbreviation of my username I've seen.

Not much to add on shelly scum discussion, it is good that she is getting the scroll. That she did not flip yesterday means we may be about to face the problem of whether we just assume she is scum and aim for her partners on the third shot, or whether we play it safe and aim for the most likely scum in the town shelly world. Who she eventually chooses to curse will be instructive here. I agree with the point that scum shelly pretty well clears Taylor, shelly attempting to wagon Taylor instead of Fred yesterday makes no sense if all three are scum, since that would massively up the chances of S-T-S. Also just reviewing those posts again, lol @ the idea shelly thinks town!Taylor would be remotely leash-able.

[UNOwen]

Don't particularly want to speculate too much on shelly's most likely partner yet in case it influences how she scrolls.

Even outside of the shelly flip I think Taylor is town here. The interactions with Fred were too harsh from his end for me to imagine that being a doomed scum distancing from his partner. In particular the bit where he pressed Taylor for having poor reasons to be defending him, which is not so much "if I go down you look townie" instead "if I'm going down then you'll be next!". Also, her play around the Fred flip doesn't really have a coherent scum strategy - switching from "scum are trying to execute Fred" to "no longer town reading Fred" to "Fidget scum means Fred is town". I've seen town Taylor pull this sort of drastic turn based on wagon dynamics before, so I can well believe that was her thought process.

[UNOwen]

I feel the exact opposite and already explained my view that it seemed like he was calibrating off a scum buddy whilst distancing for your exact response.

Yeah, I know there's a risk that this is what he wanted me to think but there's only so far you can go down that rabbit hole.

Distancing is one thing but if your scum buddy is making an effort to defend you, exposing them for that seems to have a good chance of just bringing you both down. I don't think I believe Fred would be brave enough to take that gamble.

[UNOwen]

No-one hammered, Taylor was already voting shelly.

[UNOwen]

Does my doom approacheth?

[UNOwen]

When your town read by MUSH but she doesn't care about your opinions.

I'm content with scroll holder calling the shots, so long as no-one shows their hand until the pass is confirmed.

[UNOwen]

if shelly flips green, then what.

There would be dismay.

if shelly flips red, then what.

There will be joy.

I want to spend some time reviewing a couple of slots this evening before I respond to MUSH, but Taylor/Fidget/Flea are all likely to end up as town leans I think.

[UNOwen]

My shot would be DGB atm, but her read list has thrown me off a bit because I also feel that Titus has fair chance of flipping scum. Her contributions

are

a vast improvement on Lapsa, and the reason I was looking at her is purely based on a couple of shelly interactions, which feels ugly in a game this long but I suppose can't be helped when her predecessor barely existed.

a)

DGB probtown imo, tone doesnt sound forced and scum!DGB would probably gain info of scrolling in the scum PT and would sound less clueless than atm

This was a really lame reason to town read someone. DGB is experienced, I'm sure she is capable of pretending to be clueless when replacing in. Obv shelly was faking anyway, but what matters is that it seems really weird for scum to invent a reason to lift an easily executable slot out of PoE. There are a lot of town reads, and a fairly solid town core - easy picks such as Lapsa/DGB should be the scum life blood. It reminds me of my last game with shelly, where she came up with one reason to town read her low key teammate, and then used that as an excuse not to look at him right up until endgame.

b)

Why are so few players talking about how scummy Bell is?

i can get behind a bell!scum case, elaborate on this?

This was also pretty awkward. From what I remember (and it may be that when I look back I'll find I'm misremembering) shelly had abandoned the Bell scum tunnel by this point for quite a while, so why is she breaking character to entertain a newcomers read? For me it looked like she wanted some in thread interaction with her new partner but wanted it to be entirely neutral, hence her not challenging DGB on Bell!scum.

[UNOwen]

@Fidget

I present you with: some of my reads. composed while I'm space braining on my new meds

Taylor - TL, randomly defensive, seems to be sticking to guns. Smart enough to not create those specific associative tells imo.
Noraa - SL, can't forgive the over-defensiveness earlier and response to drilled, have considered play since and downgraded.
UNOwen - scum. Previous post details this somewhere.
Mush - Town - seems proactive
Lady - Town - want to see more from her, and hope she's well soon <3
Shelly - TL, slot doesn't sit well with me on interactions still but the response to the hurt seemed genuine to me.
MC - Not sure, overconfident in reads.
Pooky - SL, slot isn't sitting well with me, seems to be mostly shitposting and taunting.
Lapsa - SL, What the smeg even is this slot.
Theta - Null Seems rather middle of the road to me.
Fred - scum. Zden was lean, freds entrance was... well I had to triple check when they came in because it's like they were always here, and its 3 straight in at taylor.
Bell - TL. Reads well to me. Should probably go look at the points made against them at some point.
Fidget - Honestly, haven't been paying attention.
Gloria - See above.
Adorable - Forgot about them

Considering Titus/Flea, what do you make of this?

[UNOwen]

@Titus
I can assume that you missed the distinction between "active obvtown" and "active town" for the second point. Third and Fourth, I guess if you haven't been suspecting shelly and so following her posts too closely you probably would not have the same impression as I did. But:

-Her belief that I am scum is totally insincere (4302). She actually cases me at one point (4989 + 4991) and it was really weak and I can't imagine shelly is actually 80% convinced I am scum based on that.

1) Almost no one thinks a case against them is strong.

Did you read the posts I linked?
If so, did you disagree with the conclusions I made about them + why?

[UNOwen]

I want to spend some time reviewing a couple of slots this evening before I respond to MUSH, but Taylor/Fidget/Flea are all likely to end up as town leans I think.

Also this should be restated. All of Taylor/Fidget/Flea are likely to end up as town/town lean.

[UNOwen]

Based off of Shelley interactions? Is your theory that scum!Shelley never distances then? None of these are in my strong trs but I probably feel the best about Tayl0r.

Partly on shelly interactions I suppose. I don't think that shelly never distances but I'm not necessarily looking for scum that she has distanced from either.
Taylor I have explained based on Fred/shelly interaction, I feel confident this makes her town. Fidget I may be biased towards because she has been reading and paying attention
to my posts for a long time. In general I approve of her approach to solving the game, she is self critical and comes across as sincere. Hasn't been afraid to position herself in the PoE. Flea just seems too hostile in their brief interaction with me to be newb scum, I think they genuinely believed that I was misrepresenting them. The latter two reads are weak and will deserve review after more flips but for now that's where I am at.

[UNOwen]

ehm. I wuz expecting more than this....

With great expectations comes great disappointment.

[UNOwen]

Town:
Bell
Taylor
MURDERCAT
Gloria ??
Fidget ????
Noraa ????
Pooky ????
Flea ??????

Scum:
DGB
Adorable
Titus

Preference is DGB. The solve is probably not those three, so I'd guess there is scum in my town group. I am not ambitious enough to attempt to figure out who I am misreading there without first sorting out the scum group.

Adorable is in there still because shelly going to the defense of Adorable with "Noraa/Adorable is not s/s" (which I remember her repeating a few times) is a pretty scummy way to defend someone while leaving plenty of room to back out if necessary. I also may be falling for the WIFOM of Fred's fake out, but it just seemed like the kind of thing designed to push a scum buddy into the green zone. I had a slight town lean on her way back because the "A -> B" logic of her posts read as earnest and sincere, but she has a bit of experience behind her and I don't think that is too high a bar for her to fake.

[UNOwen]

How is Noraa still a question mark?

I have a very heavy bias towards the idea that I was right all along, so will probably keep the paranoia there until the very end of the game. I may also be holding an irrational grudge at the fact that when Vax had the scroll she suggested killing me for information but not shelly who she thought was scum. I do think she is town especially with her more recent posts, but there is still room for that to be wrong.

[UNOwen]

I just noticed, is Titus missing from that list?

Yeah that's what I was getting at. Does scum!Flea forget to include one of their partners in their read list? It seems kind of unlikely to me.