Mini Normal 2185 | EFoBBBiO | Game Over!

[Frogsterking]

Hey guys I'm working on a better game start than RVS, my working title is "Standard Survey Start" or SSS. Let me know if you want try it. Everyone has to know what their OCEAN profile is.

[Frogsterking]

I agree that personality tests are pseudoscience however statistics is not and the OCEAN has statistical evidence for its constructs. OCEAN was created by an algorithm using computer science and the results were then interpreted by psychologists, it was not created the other way around where a psychologist makes up a personality test and then pretends he has evidence for his metrics.

OCEAN is more useful if we can get everyone to take it and it will affect how individuals approach the scum role. HOW it affects us is up for debate, and this is the unproven part of my construct, not the reasoning to include an accurate OCEAN in specific over other metrics.

OCEAN is so well established that a simple search on google

scholar

will make it clear that there is no longer a debate about the evidence behind the OCEAN metric. This is why I did not bother to link to evidence for the OCEAN test because it's like arguing that the earth is flat. You can see that it's a psychological construct but one of very few that have extensive statistical evidence, and it's existence is not really up to debate in general, only some specifics of how it affects us and the extent to which it can be applied.

That doesn't mean my ideas will work of course; only that they're worth trying and I'm at least credible enough to put effort into it.

The best part is that it is easy; in addition to posting an OCEAN test we can all look for, you answer the ten questions at the bottom of this post.





Obviously I did not link to my sources until everyone had completed the survey. I didn't want to make it explicitly obvious WHY this start would be better than a RQS until after we answered it. My sources will make the reasoning and evidence behind this start so clear it might influence what some of you say.

I’m curious to see what that is
How does it differ from RQS?

Instead of being random the questions are based on things that will give us information for the rest of the game. My ideas are just theories but I can link to actual evidence to support my inclusions of these questions.

Btw I don’t know if I feel good taking any OCEAN profile tests that I’m finding online
Can you link a good safe one frog?

No and it might be difficult. I will look if enough are interested.

Found one to give percentages.


Wonder where this goes

OK where did u find this?

The rest of the Standard Survey Start involves answering these 10 questions after posting your OCEAN:

• 1. When was the first time you played mafia and do you remember if you liked it?
  2. Why are you playing this current game of mafia now?
  3. What is your favorite mafia-like game now? (including games like Among Us and Secret Hitler)
  
  4. How many people would you say you interact with offline on a typical day?
  5. How many people would you say you interact with online on a typical day?
  6. How often do you tell stories?
  7. Do you think that lying is ever OK?
  8. Do you lie more often online than offline?
  9. How good are you at lying?
  10. Would you rather talk to someone in-person or online?

[Frogsterking]

Good idea; do you believe it's okay to increase the list to 11 items or do you think I should remove one to keep it at 10?

[Frogsterking]

Even if you don't fill them out, your comments are giving me the information I was looking for anyway.

I know that you're extraverted and disagreeable and that it's usually an effective method for you to argue because you can wear others down over time, but with me you'll just be wasting your energy.

It would be better to cooperate so that you can find out what it is that I'm looking for. Otherwise you will not have access to the information I do and you will be at a disadvantage, especially if you're scum.

[Frogsterking]

What I'm most interested in right now guy with Bowie avatar, is if you're resisting my theory because you're conservative (and higher in conscientiousness) and you just resist change in general or if you're simply resisting it because you're running on instinct and picking a fight with the first person who catches your attention.

The David Bowie avatar makes me suspect you are higher in openness than you are in conscientiousness, but not as high as you are in extraversion and disagreeableness, so you're mainly just picking a fight with me in order to demonstrate you have some kind of social value and are barely reading anyone's posts besides your own.

[Frogsterking]

Every time I do an OCEAN test or indeed any psychometric tests I get different results, but it seems that I become more and more well balanced over the years

Extraversion - 56%
Agreeableness - 51%
Conscientiousness - 33%
Openness - 59%
Neuroticism - 57%

In reality I am just 100% neuroticism and nothing else, but they never quite ask the right questions.

VOTE: Bugspray

Thank you for filling it out. Where did you find this?

I'm also curious if you're a part of a death metal band..

[Frogsterking]

Wow thank you for cooperating Trendall, I'm curious if you've ever been part of a death metal band or other band?

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: LunarMartian

Right now my main scum reads are LunarMartian and NoPowerOverMe.

Between these two I find LunarMartian the most sketch.

Everyone else I read as town so far.

[Frogsterking]

[quote="In [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12435057]
Everyone else I read as town so far.

Why am I town?

[/quote]

You seem genuine and are trying to scum hunt a realistic amount. You don't seem like much of an actor or lawyer so I find the way you're scumhunting more AI because I don't believe you're scumgame looks very similar to your towngame.

[Frogsterking]

In addition to appearing genuine you strike me as impulsive.

[Frogsterking]

I don't think your tendency to equate personality traits with scumminess is productive.

I don't like the lack of insight here, I think NoPowerOverMe is smart and picking this fight for a reason. I believe that even if NoPowerOverMe were town and just couldn't follow what I'm saying he would be able to communicate his thoughts with more clarity because communication is his strength (and listening is his weakness.) He's acting like both communicating and listening are his weaknesses, but really he's good at communicating and is being evasive at certain moments by pretending to miss the point or by being unspecific about his thoughts.

By the way I have drawn town 9 out of 10 times and that sucks because I love playing as scum.

Something feels off about this post.

VOTE: NoPowerOverMe

I think Lunar Martian noticed something was off about NoPowerOverMe's post because they're super-conscious of being partners because it's new. Similar to my opinion of NoPowerOverMe's evasiveness and lack of clarity I find Lunar's description here about what he was thinking to be evasive in a way that also has a lot of potential to be AI.

[Frogsterking]

Personality test are always the worst part of a hiring process when you submit an application for work

Nice, a truism.

[Frogsterking]

I agree with Grendel's analysis in general, and my own top scum reads are still the Bowie guy and LunarMartian.

I suggest be extra weary of buddying and sheeping this game, as well as scum being creative but making odd errors, and scum are most likely to be in a combination of something like 90% MOST SCUMMY and 10% MOST TOWN on your reads list.

We have a lot of high openness and low conscientiousness so there are a lot of artsy and creative people in here. I think that means we will have a lot of original ideas and not a lot of rereading and checking the details. Also there will be a general distrust of authority because one of the sub traits of openness is to straight up dislike authority.

We also have a lot of agreeable players which is less common for a mafia game and something we should use to our advantage. One of the main weaknesses of high agreeable is the lack of skepticism, because agreeable people are mainly motivated for others to cooperate with, so they're more likely to look for reasons to join shakey alliances. I hope this will be balanced by the high openness and distrust of authority of the group, so that there is still some sense of skepticism.

The big differences between any two players to me are that we have players who are very low and very high in neuroticism and we have players who are very low and very high in agreeableness. I suspect we may have very introverted and very extraverted players as well.

Obviously if a bunch of players replace out all of the above will change.

VOTE: LunarMartian

Right now my main scum reads are LunarMartian and NoPowerOverMe.

Between these two I find LunarMartian the most sketch.

Everyone else I read as town so far.

1.

Wait. Is your default to read as town and go from there?

And how is this:

By the way I have drawn town 9 out of 10 times and that sucks because I love playing as scum.

Something feels off about this post.

VOTE: NoPowerOverMe

2.

scummy?

1.

NO, if I'm playing in a game and I get a lot of town reads I take that as a sign to move forward more aggressively because it's a sign my reads may be very accurate in that given situation.

If I have a lot of scum reads I slow down, because it's evidence that whatever conclusions I'm working from are incorrect.

In this given game I got a lot of town reads and two scum reads so I'm more willing to go all in on my ideas. In this game I have more townreads than usual so I'm more willing to take a risk on my ideas.

2.

He's waiting to give an opinion. There was a reason he found that post scummy and he's either unaware of why that was or he's waiting to give an opinion or both.

Hey guys I'm working on a better game start than RVS, my working title is "Standard Survey Start" or SSS. Let me know if you want try it. Everyone has to know what their OCEAN profile is.

3.

DO you normally try to find more eccentric ways to open your games?

4.

How likely do you think you are to get decent reads from what you are doing?

-/-/-/-/-

O 85%
C 17%
E 40%
A 87.5%
N 87.5%

When was the first time you played mafia and do you remember if you liked it?
First game was back 2015, it stressed me out, but somehow i grew more invloved with mafia over time. I guess I enjoyed it. Otherwise i wouldnt be here today.

2. Why are you playing this current game of mafia now?
For fun.

3. What is your favorite mafia-like game now? (including games like Among Us and Secret Hitler)
I dont like most other HRPGs. I like long form games more so then short term games.

4. How many people would you say you interact with offline on a typical day?
I work in retail, so quite a few.

5. How many people would you say you interact with online on a typical day?
Depends. Somedays just a couple. Other days it can be a dozen or so.

6. How often do you tell stories?
I like telling stories in situations where I think they will be entertaining for others.

7. Do you think that lying is ever OK?
Yes, i think there are moments where lying can be for the greater good.

8. Do you lie more often online than offline?
Probably? But its usally more due to carelessness then intentionally being deceitful

9. How good are you at lying?
Better then the average person I reckon.

10. Would you rather talk to someone in-person or online?
online, because it involves less required attention in most cases.

3.

Yes and No, Yes if I had a lot of eccentric ideas I believed would work then I would try to use them every game, usually though I end up with ideas which are either eccentric OR effective but not both, so No I don't usually start my games like that unless I've got the right idea.

4.

I think in this game I'm very likely to get decent reads from starting this way, but I'm not sure if it's because of my idea or because of the player list. One thing my idea did do successfully already is give me a decent overview of the player list and I think that's helpful right now.

VOTE: LunarMartian

Right now my main scum reads are LunarMartian and NoPowerOverMe.

Between these two I find LunarMartian the most sketch.

Everyone else I read as town so far.

5.

No power scum due to Lunar MArtian voting him in an informed looking manner?

Your back and forth w/ No power imo clearly demonstrates that he is acting in character, not really doing anyhting A.i.

I do think in a vaccum that scum are most likely to crap on an opener like yours if it seems unpopular with the rest of the roster. However i think beyond the pool of a few players, most were game to play along. Which might dissuade scum from trying to push (I know you said it wasnt RQS, but im gonna call it that for the sake cpnveince) your RQS as scummy.

-/-/-/-/-

OutWorlder looks like he could be scum for making a passing non-contributive commet about taking personality tests. At least more scummy then those actully voting Frogsetr

5.

The fact that he's implied to be voting in an informed manner and he provides no new information indicates to me that he's concealing something.

*@Froggester*

6.

You have meta on Bug Spray? or are you making assumptions on how they approach this situation as scum based on what they personality seems to be?

6.

Yes bugspray was in a couple games I read through for completely unrelated reasons.

[Frogsterking]

I’m curious to see what that is
How does it differ from RQS?

Instead of being random the questions are based on things that will give us information for the rest of the game. My ideas are just theories but I can link to actual evidence to support my inclusions of these questions.

This is like, the real point of doing RQS outside of being an RVS substitute
So like, in essence I don’t feel like your thing differs from RQS in anything but name.

It will be different from RQS because I will keep the questions and the process the same as I can and collect metrics on the results. Then I can do a multivariate analysis on player behavior in-game with an OCEAN-based psychographic and see if anything more causal and clear can be found. There's another example of something similar I already found that did multivariate analysis between linguistics and alignment to see if a player's syntax changes. The information from my new idea with the SSS will be useful even after it's released because most players won't read it all the way through. If anything clear is found it will be useful even if you're playing in a game without the SSS because you can probably roughly figure out the other players OCEANS anyway. So unlike RQS it would be useful to anyone who knows about it even if they're not in a game with it, and also would have some additional advantages to taking this approach in-game if players decided to use it. If players decided they wanted to use it there would be a thread with very clear instructions explaining the steps of the SSS and it would be kept as brief and engaging as possible.

OK where did u find this?

You seem to ask this to everyone that has done it at this point, but you’ve indicated you want the OCEAN profile to be done

before

the other questions. Why are you getting like this at people doing things in the order you want?

It seems like making sure it's done in a specific order is a good way to keep the results more accurate.

[Frogsterking]

I just did a couple quick read-throughs and I saw that momrangal pointed out there is high neuroticism in the group as well so there will be more needless abstraction and self-consciousness.

Everyone that is posting actively looks pretty town to me aside from NoPowerOverMe. I saw that momrangal pointed out NoPowerOverMe's behavior is likely NAI because it's motivated by his disagreeableness, and I agree, the reason I suspect him more than the others is that I believe he will play the same way as scum, whereas the other active posters are less likely to be approaching the game in this way simply because they don't have the experience lying because outside of mafia and they're not really motivated to practice lying or get very many opportunities to practice it because they aren't extraverted or disagreeable. Obviously they could still be very good at lying in general or have practiced it for this specific purpose (lying in a mini-normal on mafiascum) it's just less likely when you think about what motivated their behavior in the past leading up to this game, so for that reason I FoS NoPowerOverMe alone in the active posters.

Players that don't have the desire or the experience to practice lying are going to need to construct some sort of persona for themselves, lie low for much of the game, or replace out. The persona they create is going to need to gel with people that are open, agreeable, and neurotic.

The conclusion of my conjecture is that at least 2/3 of the scum are in the low-activity pool or mid-activity pool already, and in the case that one scum is in the high-activity pool that scum is NoPowerOverMe because his temperament gives him more motivation and opportunity to practice lying in his day to day life, so it makes more sense he would elect to adopt this same approach rolling scum in this game.

@Grendel I did talk to mastina by PM already about her thoughts on VCA as well as post-game, in-thread about the effect of short and fast time limits on games. In the same thread CFJ talked to her about the affect of uncommon power roles like Alien on game balance so that post-game chat might be interesting to you if you're into that sort of thing. https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12226642

I'm leaving my vote on LunarMartian until the slot does anything to motivate me to move it or to prevent a NoLim. I can also be persuaded to join a BW on NoPowerOverMe.

[Frogsterking]

Not very good scum either, lolhammered town.

By the way I have drawn town 9 out of 10 times and that sucks because I love playing as scum.

You talk about rolling scum early on for no reason twice, and imply that you're a strong scum player, also implying you're a more skilled liar and better able to manipulate the other players.

Lying and manipulation, like anything, take practice.

Players that are extraverted and disagreeable have more opportunities to lie because they're motivate to speak to more people overall in their life and to be competitive with them; some individuals with this temperament (not all) are inclined to do so because it enables them to make better use of social capital which suits the strategy of extraversion, and it enables them to have more resources at the expense of another which suits the strategy of disagreeableness.

The other players who are posting actively are more agreeable than you are, so even if they have the opportunities to practice lying online or offline, it's unlikely they would take full advantage of those opportunities to practice. The other active posters also have not boasted about their ability to lie or manipulate other players, so it seems to be something they don't value intrinsically, whereas it's clear that you value the ability to do so and have expressed a desire to do so, therefore I believe your activity levels are not going to drop after you roll scum, because it gives you an ability to demonstrate what you've learned.

[Frogsterking]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9pby8L3aIww

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lU12jRizCw0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_koZCcoiHE

For anyone who prefers to read rather than watch, this creator cites all of his sources (which are from actual academic and professional research) in the video summary. Despite being academic and statistical in nature they are very accessible and easy to understand but it may take some time to absorb the full implications of the research gathered here.

https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/fo ... University

Some of the topics in the link above such as the guides to "Open Wolfing" and "Power Wolfing", combined with the academic research through the youtube links above, will give you insight into how an individual who believes in their ability to lie, is extraverted and disagreeable will approach the game as scum compared to pretty much any other type of player.

[Frogsterking]

High activity: 30+ Gamma and NoPowerOverMe
Mid activity: 10-20 Grendel, Frogsterking, Galron, Amelie
low activity: 0-9 bugspray, AGamblingPig, Momrangal, Trendall, LunarMartian, Outworlder, Lucas

The assumptions I'm running on are that 3/3 scum are all in the low activity end, because they aren't sure how to lie yet and are reacting to their own lies emotionally, with the exception of NoPowerOverMe who is the opposite and actually motivated to engage in lying for personal and in-game reasons.

LunarMartian didn't get enough time to get used to lying so he's choosing to abstain his early presence.

I'm interested in anything else you guys can glean from the low activity posters that might help to differentiate their alignments from one another.

[Frogsterking]

I suggest instead of forming a concrete town block we make a pseudo one and begin posting reasons to narrow down the lynch from these players:

NoPowerOverMe, bugspray, AGamblingPig, Momrangal, Trendall, LunarMartian, Outworlder, Lucas

I've felt "pings" to trust all of the players here except NoPower and Lunar. I believe very strongly our chances of winning this game go up by lynching from this list and that the statistics and psychographics will lead us further and faster than our pings.

After we've narrowed down the lynch I believe it will be easier to form a town block, that's why I suggest postponing on the town block discussion.

[Frogsterking]

the statistics and psychographics will lead us further and faster than our pings.

If it suits ur vocab better I can say "Inductive reasoning will lead us further and faster than relying on our intuition alone."

[Frogsterking]

That's not to do with 'suiting my vocab better' though. With 'inductive reasoning' you can throw out all the statistics and psychometric tests.

That's not to do with 'suiting my vocab better' though. With 'inductive reasoning' you can throw out all the statistics and psychometric tests.

Well, statistics are formed using specific data points which are then analyzed to form general principles, which is the exact definition of inductive reasoning. So if you believe inductive reasoning is valid in the first place then you should look for a way to apply statistics. Psychometrics (at least the version I'm suggesting, OCEAN) are based at least in part on statistics, in OCEAN's case it's based completely on statistics in the first place and was created by a machine. The fact you claim to believe in inductive reasoning and suggest my theory can be "thrown out" BECAUSE of it is not congruent on your part. Maybe what you really believe in is deductive reasoning; and you believe when dealing with incomplete information we're forced to rely on intuition or abductive reasoning because there is no other alternative.

[Frogsterking]

; and you believe when dealing with incomplete information we're forced to rely on intuition or abductive reasoning because there is no other alternative.

I don't believe this at all. I believe that this is going to be a very long game.

Fair enough. Good point.

There's a difference between being a strong scum player and enjoying it. I've only drawn scum once and I lost. What makes you think I am good scum and how does that pertain to this game?

Your methodology needs a lot of work. I feel you have desire to be town leader except you don't realize town are supposed to collaborate.

K.

[Frogsterking]

Yeah Trendall is starting to look too much like an archetype recently and I'm going to have to FoS Trendall along with LunarMartian and NPOM (assuming at least one maf slipped into the mid-range or high-activity-posters pool). If NPOM is town and there are three maf from the low-activity pool, and Amelie is included in that group because of the recent timing of the majority of her posts, I'm not sure who my third pick would be alongside Trendall and LunarMartian.

[Frogsterking]

@Gamma @Grendel Is there any other game state that can be done on D1 that will make it easier for you to scum hunt in or that you have experience with in the past or both?

At this point I'm coasting a little bit and townreading Gamma and Grendel and then all the other high-range posters through proxy, minus NPOM who for my own reason I scum read provided there was one scum that made it into the town block.

[Frogsterking]

To me it's looking like scum were in the initial low-activity group after all.

[Frogsterking]

I'm not really sure how to read Amelie.

[Frogsterking]

Lunar you may want to complete my SSS it might save you D1 if you're town. If you're scum you may not want to complete it though.

[Frogsterking]

https://www.truity.com/test/big-five-personality-test It looks like this version became the go-to for this iteration of the survey.

Something else that I think should be included in the SSS is some kind of follow up test or contest to increase engagement and prevent D1 from stalling. I think the goal of the start overall is to a) increase chances as much as possible of getting a D1 scum lynch and b) make the entire game as difficult for scum and as easy for town as possible.

[Frogsterking]

Trendall is scum.

[Frogsterking]

I think a D1 cross between NPOM and LunarMartian and Trendall looks pretty nice right now.

[Frogsterking]

Ok, I was just making sure that the claim was bs like I thought it was.

The only people that have an issue with it are those outside the block.

Who are the five people in it?

Me
Galron
Grendal
Frog
Gamma

Frog is still pushing you as scum here, but I do agree. The pushes against you are not only crappy as fuck but they are targeted at the largest voice within the block and someone who, if left alive could win us the game

I’m surprised you don’t think the intensity of the NPOM wagon could be due to the fact that scum have been heavily wagoned themselves. To me it looks like a deliberate counter-wagon.

This is how it's starting to appear to me as well.

[Frogsterking]

It looks like sorting Luca correctly is the most efficient path to a D1 scum lynch because most of the serious contenders to a D1 lynch are beginning to revolve around Luca.

[Frogsterking]

Town: Frogsterking, Galron, bugspray, NoPowerOverMe
Null: OutWorldER, Lunar Martian, Trendall, AGamblingPig, Grendel,
Scum: Gamma Emerald, Luca Blight, Momrangal

I'm actually considering lifting Luca Blight because of his interactions with my scum reads being a good look but I'm going to hold off on that for a bit.

I'm going to need some time to put my thoughts together on this post.

[Frogsterking]

im very scared of Luca because I can't read him and remember him rolling scum one time and believing he looked exactly like town!Luca and trying to elim me at any time is usually not very controversial (meta me if you're into that) and neither is wanting to elim lunar which makes me very

npim here is reminding me increasingly of town!formerfish

I’ve hard townread you every time you’ve been Town, including in the game I was scum, because when you’re Town you’re obviously Town. The only time I’ve previously SR you was when you were indeed scum, and you played in the same way you’re doing here.

Can you think of any other explanations for bugs behavior this game other than a scum flip?

[Frogsterking]

Luca is town.

[Frogsterking]

I'm going to evaluate Amelie and bugs now.

My instinct now is that we're dealing with an extremely disorganized scum team.

[Frogsterking]

Amelie is also town.

[Frogsterking]

Frogster why is your ocean test better than rvs and why didn't you link us all the same one and also post your results? NPOM and Galren might be beside one another in this wagon and I'm here to back them up

This is the post that made me gut read bugs as town at the beginning of the game. I believe it appeared town to me because I took his question as an

implication

he was thinking about scum hunting. The rest of his posts since then have looked pretty weak.

At this point I'm the most open to eliminating Lunar. Before the end of D1 I would like to see what can be done about sorting the remaining slots.

Right now I've got
Townbloc:
Gamma, Grendel, Galron, NPOM, myself
Town:
Luca, Amelie, momrangal
Null:
Trendall
Scum:
Lunar and some combination of the last few

[Frogsterking]

I'm feeling Momrangals push from a few pages ago on the outworldER guy.

Lunar and outworldER are my top picks right now.

I guess I'm still sorting bugs, and I subconsciously moved Trendall from a scum read to a neutral read in my last list.

[Frogsterking]

im very scared of Luca because I can't read him and remember him rolling scum one time and believing he looked exactly like town!Luca and trying to elim me at any time is usually not very controversial (meta me if you're into that) and neither is wanting to elim lunar which makes me very

npim here is reminding me increasingly of town!formerfish

I’ve hard townread you every time you’ve been Town, including in the game I was scum, because when you’re Town you’re obviously Town. The only time I’ve previously SR you was when you were indeed scum, and you played in the same way you’re doing here.

Can you think of any other explanations for bugs behavior this game other than a scum flip?

No, they’ve displayed nothing of their Town behavior this game, and their reaction to my push feels as though they don’t quite know how to react to it, as though they know they’ve been caught.

I’ve had a lot of success meta reading certain players this way in the past. I was wrong on one occasion, although that was a bit of a unique situation.

Is this early post consistent with what you would expect from his scum game?

Frogster why is your ocean test better than rvs and why didn't you link us all the same one and also post your results? NPOM and Galren might be beside one another in this wagon and I'm here to back them up

If he's scum then this post threw me a little bit.

[Frogsterking]

Sorry bugs for not using they/them I'll try to not mess up again.

[Frogsterking]

im very scared of Luca because I can't read him and remember him rolling scum one time and believing he looked exactly like town!Luca and trying to elim me at any time is usually not very controversial (meta me if you're into that) and neither is wanting to elim lunar which makes me very

npim here is reminding me increasingly of town!formerfish

I’ve hard townread you every time you’ve been Town, including in the game I was scum, because when you’re Town you’re obviously Town. The only time I’ve previously SR you was when you were indeed scum, and you played in the same way you’re doing here.

Can you think of any other explanations for bugs behavior this game other than a scum flip?

No, they’ve displayed nothing of their Town behavior this game, and their reaction to my push feels as though they don’t quite know how to react to it, as though they know they’ve been caught.

I’ve had a lot of success meta reading certain players this way in the past. I was wrong on one occasion, although that was a bit of a unique situation.

I don't know how to react to it, but not because I've been caught. I don't know how to react to it because you are pushing me for a bunch of bullshit that makes no sense. Since it doesn't make sense there's not much for me to say.

Who do you think has made the most and the least sense this game, Lunar?

[Frogsterking]

You know Luca I was thinking about your case and I actually don't believe the meta change is AI, I think Lunar did better in the Newbie game because he was only in one game and the other players were new.

[Frogsterking]

Luca I agree with your analysis on the bugs and Lunar interactions.

My current solve is gamblingpig, Lunar and bugs.

[Frogsterking]

It's very urgent and important that we BW the pig slot. I need your help.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: agamblingpig

First 5 pages.

WAY TOO MUCH PERSONALITY TEST BS.

NPOM

and

Gamma

at each other's throats for some reason.

Pages 6-10

Outworlder

jumping on a town leaning

grendel

is weird. but it doesn't last long.

Grendel

wagon starts to build. Not particularly sure why.

frogster

acting pro-town on page 8. several good analysis posts.

200 from

Grendel

is a good point about scum not necessarily participating heavily in the thread.

Amelie and Luca

come in strong with quality posting. like what they are adding.

PAGE 11-16

pAGE 12 is nonsese. Nothing of note form anyone.

Tow reads
Frogster
Amelie
Grendel

Sketchy

Lunar
mom

I'm gonna keep my vote where it is for now. But I'm also gonna go back and ISO the two top wagons to see if I can get a read on either of them.

I believe the gamblingpig slot is scum and he chose to focus on the town players during his analysis, which I bolded in the quote.

I believe he chose to scum read one town and one scum which I also bolded in the quote. I currently believe Lunar is the scum. If Lunar flips town and pig flips scum then I will probably FoS momrangal based on this analysis.

My current solve is bugs + Lunar + pig.

[Frogsterking]

I'm interested in what you make of the pig and outworldER slots, Amelie. I know there is not as much to go on; but can you extract any information on their alignment?

[Frogsterking]

outworldER can you say something now that only a townie would say?

[Frogsterking]

lol, seems kinda townie.

[Frogsterking]

I believe we will win if we BW AGamblingPig right now.

[Frogsterking]

https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... _Detection

I posted this earlier but it may have gotten lost in my walls of text.

This is a research study analyzing this website using machine learning by a student or professor at Stanford. One thing that they found was that scum are more likely to replace out. This is consistent with my own experiences on this website.

Not only is a gamblingpig flip more likely because of the replace out, but I townread the majority of the active players, and what little gamblingpig posted is scum telling. It seems the general consensus is that things are going pretty well for town already, and it makes more sense that scum would fail to get a player into the town block or be given any kind of voice if they're already playing D1 down a player.

I would love to NOT get a pro scum replacement to pop in here, calmly review the gamestate, and find the best way to mess things up. I'm fine with gamblingpig not being executed until the replacement appears, but I believe the BW should be started before and not after.

My theory on gamblingpig also aligns with your theory on the bug and lunar interactions, because their interactions make even more sense to me if their 3rd partner voted Lunar and then immediately went MIA.

[Frogsterking]

NPOM do you have any particular insight into outworldER's alignment?

[Frogsterking]

Strange timing but I'll reply in a bit. On the phone right now.

I also found the timing strange.

[Frogsterking]

These comments are from another game I played in that are relevant here:

A bit, but the fact you unvoted then put down reading. I probably would have flipped those two around.
As I also noted it was only one post of yours.
Has anything popped out to you in your reading so far?
Also, Looker, in an earlier post I noted the lack of a big wagon, now that has changed since I made it but

it reminded me of

bugspray D1

. Do you think that could be the case here?

So Buspray,

That was a person in 2145 who on D1 was being scumread a lot and had consistent votes on.

He was later elimed and was a pr.

The situation has changed and were different, but at the time I was thinking about that CFJ had been scumread through the phase consistently plus there was no real consistent cw. This no longer holds up due to the shift in gamestate. It was a reason for why I thought CFJ is town.
NM you are a pita to play with.
I must admit that my read on taylor has improved to a slight tr after a alight sr on her first posts. There seems to be better posts more recently.
A Nos, you said you felt cfj was gaslighting italiano then voted for him. Is there a reason for voting italiano then.

I believe flipping pig is actually safer than flipping Lunar or bugs.

[Frogsterking]

I get your point Frogster and agree with most of what you say there, but a few points:

1) a BW on a player being replaced discourages most players from replacing in, and probably means we’re more likely to get a highly skilled scum player.

2) a BW entirely formed on the replacement’s predecessor can pretty much be dismissed by the successor, especially when there’s so little content.

3) replacing out could be due to the time of year.

4) we have some decent leads already and can always address this slot later.

I agree this slot could well be scum, but I wouldn’t like to assume that already.

1) Ouch. I didn't realize replacements got to choose whether or not they wanted to replace into a particular game.

[Frogsterking]

@Grendel

Doesn't this quote below imply lunar and ER are less likely to be partners or am I misunderstanding the theory?

Based on interactions on this page I don't think that OutWorldER and Frog are both Mafia. I'm leaning towards Frog being Mafia and Out being Town.

[Frogsterking]

I'm never voting for a slot that's inactive. The odds of a replacement being Town are higher than Mafia, just because there are way more townsfolk. The odds are therefore higher that the replacement will help Town than that they will help Mafia.

I've noticed in the past that players who make me angry are more likely to be mafia and this is the first time I've felt anger in this game so I'm interpreting this post as being AI.

[Frogsterking]

UNVOTE:

My intuition is telling me too strongly now to return to the Lunar wagon. I think I made it clear where I stand on the pig slot.

VOTE: Lunar

[Frogsterking]

Amelie might be scum Gamma

[Frogsterking]

I was just working on a post pointing out how our intuition can manifest itself as anger, and Luca and I have both been triggered by Lunar.

I was about to point out that Amelie and Grendel have both been defending Lunar and arguably gaslighting.

Then I saw your post, and the fact that you're now being triggered by Amelie is a sign to me she needs to be resorted.

[Frogsterking]

And I’ve given Lunar every chance to engage with me, but when they just outright refuse to answer my questions while at the same time moaning that no-one is talking to them, then there’s nothing more I can do.

I get you're tilted by Lunar's behavoir, Luca. Maybe call it a night and come back tomarrow when you're refreshed.

RN if you're both town I think this 1v1 is just wasting space inthread.

This is the moment I was commenting on when I saw your post about Amelie, Gamma. Grendel's defense of Lunar here reminded me that Amelie has also been an adamant defender of Lunar.

[Frogsterking]

Are you open to executing Lunar instead of bugs today, NPOM?

[Frogsterking]

Lunar Martian

(4) ~

AGamblingPig

(5), Galron(26),

bugspray

(48), Frogsterking(61)

bugspray

(4) ~ NoPowerOverMe(120), Luca Blight(91), OutWorldER(18), Gamma Emerald(113)
NoPowerOverMe, OutWorldER, Trendall (5) ~ Grendel(68),

Lunar Martian

(49), Trendall(33), Momrangal(39), Amélie(66)

_________________________________________________________________________


The current BWs look like this after combining the three smaller wagons into one larger one and coloring in my scum reads.

[Frogsterking]

That's an interesting concept, since one of my shortcomings as a player is I sometimes let emotions get in the way of solving

I mean I believe that and maybe SOME of your emotions can also be used as a resource for solving. I started thinking this way after I combed through my last game which had you, charmander/shelly, and geraintm as the scum team. I noticed that Looker and I both had unusual anger reactions to geraintm after roughly a couple weeks of time each. I formed this theory based off that observation. I've also read somewhere that our intuitive voice is the childish voice inside our head but I don't remember where.

Solving systematically with a clear mind = deductive reasoning.

Solving based on our subconscious = intuition.

This is a 2 minute video from psychologist Jung that helped the concept click for me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9Fw-YpHoU8

I think Jung's ideas of sensing vs intuition (which the MBTI personality test is loosely based off of) manifest themselves in the OCEAN model as conscientiousness and openness, which have actually been found to have a negative correlation. Based on what I've learned so far I believe a high conscientiousness is better suited for deductive reasoning by temperament and high openness is better suited for intuition by temperament.

[Frogsterking]

By the way I think for Day 1 I want to try to townblock and have a group of voices I trust to bounce ideas off of

I'm not getting anything out of the personality testing. I think we should go back to this.

I consider this a clear stance of siding with NoPowerOverMe and I'm not sure how to word this but "weakening" Frogsterking and his unique approach to mafia. I'm not sure what to make of this at the moment and I'll have to continue thinking about it.

I’m not entirely a fan of this. I think Galron’s post was rather constructive, since rather than just downtalk frog’s idea, he also uplifted my own, so I think Galron has good motives rn. Also Galron seems to be limbaity from my last game with him, so I’d be wary of those pushing him.
VOTE: Amelie

. i typically find scum more likely to lurk after submitting responses to the questions until somebody else gets the game out of the "random" phase. Usally because they both dont know how to move out of that stage naturally, and dont have the motivation to try.

I think this is a good evaluation of the idea behind it, at least for the short term “reading people directly off of responses” tactic

Btw about the activity read discussion, I think any scumteam worth their salt would have someone trying to get their foot in the door if the {Gamma, Grendel, Galron, NPOM, frogster} set is all-town
Amelie’s attack on the block kinda feels that way.

I think Amelie’s recent effort seems decent.
VOTE: bugspray
Let’s whack some weeds, shall we?

Kinda been distracted, I noticed someone asked me a question, I’ll get to it today in a few hours most likely

Amelie's takes bother the crap out of me
Amelie what do you tend to look for when reading people? I asked you a similar question earlier but I don't recall an answer.

I acknowledge that but I feel like I might just be disliking her for having different methods to me

That's an interesting concept, since one of my shortcomings as a player is I sometimes let emotions get in the way of solving

Gamma do you think that your subconscious is telling you that Amelie is full of shit or not?

[Frogsterking]

@amelie are you a novelty account based off of the movie by the same name?

I was not aware there was a movie called Amélie. I am interested in taking a look at it sometime over break though.
I searched up an OCEAN test and my results were:
83% O
58% C
37.5% E
71% A
46% N

1. When was the first time you played mafia and do you remember if you liked it?

This is my second game of mafia and my first is ongoing.

2. Why are you playing this current game of mafia now?

I died in my first and had some extra time so I decided to sign up for another.

3. What is your favorite mafia-like game now? (including games like Among Us and Secret Hitler)

I don't play any other mafia like games.

4. How many people would you say you interact with offline on a typical day?

4-5.

5. How many people would you say you interact with online on a typical day?

Not counting the people I interact with offline, around 2-3.
Counting them, 6-8

6. How often do you tell stories?

Never.

7. Do you think that lying is ever OK?

I think there are times when it is fine but those times are pretty rare.

8. Do you lie more often online than offline?

Definitely yes.

9. How good are you at lying?

Not good.

10. Would you rather talk to someone in-person or online?

In person.

Here's her profile.

It's possible that she is attacking players who seem to have authority, that's a subtrait of Openness, a dislike of authority. That would also explain why she appears disagreeable rather than agreeable in this game.

[Frogsterking]

Based on her test and her behavior I believe Amelie is extraordinarily high in this subtrait of openness:

"Liberalism. Psychological liberalism refers to a readiness to challenge authority, convention, and traditional values. In its most extreme form, psychological liberalism can even represent outright hostility toward rules, sympathy for law-breakers, and love of ambiguity, chaos, and disorder. Psychological conservatives prefer the security and stability brought by conformity to tradition. Psychological liberalism and conservatism are not identical to political affiliation, but certainly incline individuals toward certain political parties. Your level of liberalism is $flev[18]. "

http://www.personal.psu.edu/faculty/j/5 ... tions.html

I seem to be thinking this alone wouldn't cause you distaste because you also seem very liberal, Gamma.

I'm looking at the second half of Amelie's questionnaire with a little twinkle in my eye now.

[Frogsterking]

@All

In a hypothetical scenario where both Lunar and Amelie are scum, does it make more or less sense to you that bugspray is the third???

[Frogsterking]

My current solves:

lunar/bugs/pig

lunar/bugs/Amelie

Unlikely alt theory based on pigs post and a hypothetical pig scum flip and Lunar town flip:

pigs/Momrangal/bugs

[Frogsterking]

To you, what is the probability that the townblock is 100% town?

lol

[Frogsterking]

ORAM looks scummy, Trendall is advocating an anti - town mindset.

@ORAM

Yes, yes, early RVS read > terrible reaction > unwillingness to engage > process of elimination > pisses me off.

[Frogsterking]

@Grendel

I believe that BOTH bugs and Lunar are temperamentally creative, perhaps even more than the rest of us, at the expense of having an organic ability to organize their ideas and produce consistent results over time.

I think they both have a particular kind of strategy where they back themselves into a corner and get underestimated then intuitively draw out some kind of way to save themselves.

My earlier question was related to something you said in this game about scum choosing not to associate with partners that are doing well.

[Frogsterking]

UNVOTE:

Was following this game before replacing in, so that's cool. Maybe I'm weird, but I don't think Lunar is especially likely to be scum. The wagon on them seems to be more motivated by them not getting along well with people here than by them being scummy. I don't see scum so blatantly drawing attention to themselves, especially if they have a nervous personality. I don't like the wagon either. Galron and Bugspray's votes both feel like "well here's a wagon, might as well vote it," and then there's frogster. I don't like how they've been convinced Lunar is scum since Lunar's first post and haven't wavered since, even as they reevaluate every other slot. It all feels like an inertia wagon.

I'm not

completely

sold on Bugspray being scum either, but I like their wagon comp a lot better. I think NPOM and Luca are town. Gamma too, with the caveat that I've read a lot of games he's been in and liked his posting regardless of alignment. OutWorldER is a big ??? because so few posts, but their vote here feels... fine? I kinda like it, but can't find the words to say why. My only doubts are because I get the feeling that the inconsistencies in their thought process and read progression might actually just be their personality.

Why the hell did this post take me like 2 hours to write, what the hell. I don't really have a strong impression on Grendel, Trendall, Mom, or Amélie, and will work on them next time.

@Luca (and anyone else with Bugs meta): Do you think bugs' scummy-looking behavior could be their personality, or am I off base?

@Frogster: Do you want me to do that OCEAN thing?

What do you think the odds are that Lunar is town with unusual temperament versus pretty obvious scum?

Also, can you walk me through the progression there? It's not super clear where and why they became your most consistent scumread.

I'm sure that others will find plenty to pick apart here; I feel compelled to point out that you're the only one calling Lunar pretty obvious scum and I'm not sure why you chose to make this question town-with-unusual-temperament vs pretty-obvious-scum, that's an unusual way to phrase the question and it's pretty obvious that you want to OMGUS me but can't make a case against me because there isn't one.

[Frogsterking]

I'm willing to hammer Lunar, ORAM, and bugs today in that order of preference. I'd be pretty stunned if there isn't at least one scum in this group and not very stunned at all if there are three.

Nulls I have are Trendall and OutworldER.

I townread everyone else. If one of my townreads is wrong my first pick would be Amelie as a proxy read off Gamma's intuition and my second pick would be NPOM because of his profile. There is also a weak associative tell I pointed out between the ORAM slot and Momrangal.

[Frogsterking]

I'm also going to nominate Luca to be accepted into the town block.

[Frogsterking]

I feel like this is either a huge play style clash or you are scum. I hate nearly every post you post.

Curious why frogster didn’t address this when bringing up that point about emotion before
Btw I think part of the problem with your posts Amelie is you put your thoughts behind the spoiler= tag so it’s harder to engage with.

Gamma your emotion toward Amelie is disgust and sensitivity to disgust is correlated with conscientiousness.

It seems like you're disgusted by what you view in her as chaotic and unproductive and she's revolting against what she sees in you as orderly and authoritarian.

Conscientiousness increases with age, especially throughout the early to late 20s, so it could be some kind of dynamic like the older liberal being disgusted with the younger liberal.

[Frogsterking]

Well it looks like you're both in your early 20s so scratch that theory out.

[Frogsterking]

@bugs

Do you believe it's accurate to say that you and Lunar have a similar approach?

@Gamma

Here it is:

In order to understand the friction you need to know that Conscientiousness and Openness have a negative correlation and are kind of like the concept of being left-brained and right-brained. Openness is like entrepreneur, artist, liberal and inventor people and Conscientiousness is like the banker, lawyer, manager and administrator people. And I'm not talking about a subtle correlation here; if you talk your friend who is an artist or trying to start a business into taking the OCEAN test they WILL be high in Openness and likely not Conscientiousness. Vice versa for the bankers and lawyers as well.

At their worst Openness creates mobs like the French Revolution or Detroit and Conscientiousness creates systematic genocide like Nazi Germany or Klux Klan. The sub trait of Liberalism experiences hostility toward signs of authoritarianism and the sub trait of Orderliness experiences disgust toward chaotic behavior.

Amelie, Grendel, and Gamma

are all high in openness as far as my eye can see which implies similarity in some or all of these sub facets below:

"Your score on Openness to Experience is high, indicating you enjoy novelty, variety, and change. You are curious, imaginative, and creative.
Openness Facets

Imagination. To imaginative individuals, the real world is often too plain and ordinary. High scorers on this scale use fantasy as a way of creating a richer, more interesting world. Low scorers are on this scale are more oriented to facts than fantasy. Your level of imagination is $flev[13].

Artistic Interests. High scorers on this scale love beauty, both in art and in nature. They become easily involved and absorbed in artistic and natural events. They are not necessarily artistically trained nor talented, although many will be. The defining features of this scale are interest in, and appreciation of natural and artificial beauty. Low scorers lack aesthetic sensitivity and interest in the arts. Your level of artistic interests is $flev[14].

Emotionality. Persons high on Emotionality have good access to and awareness of their own feelings. Low scorers are less aware of their feelings and tend not to express their emotions openly. Your level of emotionality is $flev[15].

Adventurousness. High scorers on adventurousness are eager to try new activities, travel to foreign lands, and experience different things. They find familiarity and routine boring, and will take a new route home just because it is different. Low scorers tend to feel uncomfortable with change and prefer familiar routines. Your level of adventurousness is $flev[16].

Intellect. Intellect and artistic interests are the two most important, central aspects of openness to experience. High scorers on Intellect love to play with ideas. They are open-minded to new and unusual ideas, and like to debate intellectual issues. They enjoy riddles, puzzles, and brain teasers. Low scorers on Intellect prefer dealing with either people or things rather than ideas. They regard intellectual exercises as a waste of time. Intellect should not be equated with intelligence. Intellect is an intellectual style, not an intellectual ability, although high scorers on Intellect score slightly higher than low-Intellect individuals on standardized intelligence tests. Your level of intellect is $flev[17].

Liberalism. Psychological liberalism refers to a readiness to challenge authority, convention, and traditional values. In its most extreme form, psychological liberalism can even represent outright hostility toward rules, sympathy for law-breakers, and love of ambiguity, chaos, and disorder. Psychological conservatives prefer the security and stability brought by conformity to tradition. Psychological liberalism and conservatism are not identical to political affiliation, but certainly incline individuals toward certain political parties. Your level of liberalism is $flev[18]. "


____________________


So where is the conflict coming from if we are all roughly alike in this way? I think the friction IS a result of temperament as well as what you guys are valuing.

Between Gamma and Amelie it's these facets:

(from Conscientiousness)
"Orderliness. Persons with high scores on orderliness are well-organized. They like to live according to routines and schedules. They keep lists and make plans. Low scorers tend to be disorganized and scattered. Your level of orderliness is $flev[26]. "

vs

(again from Openness)
"Emotionality. Persons high on Emotionality have good access to and awareness of their own feelings. Low scorers are less aware of their feelings and tend not to express their emotions openly. "

"Liberalism. Psychological liberalism refers to a readiness to challenge authority, convention, and traditional values. In its most extreme form, psychological liberalism can even represent outright hostility toward rules, sympathy for law-breakers, and love of ambiguity, chaos, and disorder. Psychological conservatives prefer the security and stability brought by conformity to tradition. Psychological liberalism and conservatism are not identical to political affiliation, but certainly incline individuals toward certain political parties."

Gamma and Amelie are both high in Emotionality but Gamma is putting effort into regulating his emotions whereas Amelie is using them as her primary scum hunting tool. Gamma is more orderly and is experiencing disgust toward Amelie's scattered reads and posts. Amelie is listening to her emotions which are informing her correctly that Gamma has a higher propensity for authoritarianism than her (though in the big picture Gamma is far from authoritarian) and is running with the hostility that this triggers as these feelings are her way of tracking scum. Gamma does not value his Emotionality for scum hunting and is also attempting to incorporate Order along with his Openness. Amelie values mostly her Emotionality for scum hunting and is either actively or passively attacking signs of Order as a result of her Liberalism.

Then Amelie and Grendel:

(from Conscientiousness again)
"Cautiousness. Cautiousness describes the disposition to think through possibilities before acting. High scorers on the Cautiousness scale take their time when making decisions. Low scorers often say or do first thing that comes to mind without deliberating alternatives and the probable consequences of those alternatives."

+

(same stuff from Openness)
"Liberalism. Psychological liberalism refers to a readiness to challenge authority, convention, and traditional values. In its most extreme form, psychological liberalism can even represent outright hostility toward rules, sympathy for law-breakers, and love of ambiguity, chaos, and disorder. Psychological conservatives prefer the security and stability brought by conformity to tradition. Psychological liberalism and conservatism are not identical to political affiliation, but certainly incline individuals toward certain political parties. "

"Emotionality. Persons high on Emotionality have good access to and awareness of their own feelings. Low scorers are less aware of their feelings and tend not to express their emotions openly."

Similar story but not quite the same. Grendel IS in his mid 20s so his conscientiousness may have increased over time, which Amelie will subconsciously perceive as a propensity for authoritarianism and because she is following her emotions she will act with hostility. Even more, I think that kind of like Gamma and his slight inclination for Order, Grendel is built to incorporate some Cautiousness alongside his Openness. I think Grendel chooses his words carefully. Therefore it makes sense that Amelie would experience hostility toward Grendel on some level because of his Cautiousness especially since that is actually a valid scum tell in many instances.


____________

Ref http://www.personal.psu.edu/faculty/j/5 ... tions.html

[Frogsterking]

Well it looks like you're both in your early 20s so scratch that theory out.

Replace chronological age with mafia age. There is an unnatural amount if irration and useage of energy trying to keep up with the newer generation of mafia

Including an irritation at you for dropping amelie down to null- maybe scum

You recently said you reviewed my posting and thought me town. Then soon after I moved you to my scum reads and this post followed.
Can you talk to me about how you are thinking?

That isn’t an accurate representation of the timeline
I feel like it’s hard to parse out what factors into your reads so they come across as baseless and random

Amelie is a bit disorganized but, she posts stream of thought posts in the attempt or organize and communicate her thoughts and ideas which I maintain is difficult for newer scum to do. It looks like to me that her mind is moving much faster than she is able to get down on paper and it does show that she is trying to solve a puzzle vs trying to manipulate the situation to make it look like she is solving a puzzle.

I drink too much but I wanted to say that after looking closely again at Amelie, Grendall, and Gamma this afternoon I felt more confident that they were town.

[Frogsterking]

M y head is pounding I'm going to go to bed. I can't remember I was trying to say something.

[Frogsterking]

Spoiler:

I'd say you're allergic to me lol. If you can think of a reason every single post a player makes is scummy then you're trying very hard to make the player in question look scummy in your mind.

If this is where it stands then im not sure if theres much point in me engaging you this game.

You asked about why I said "if you're both town then chill out" w/regards to the Lunar Vs Luca thing. Its a means of discouraging self-destructive town tendencies, its a net neutral as far as telling scum it i think? "if you're both town" just appeals to a player's better nature in general. I use the phrase pretty regularly in most games i play.

The bolded is what I find unsettling in this post. My Grendel scum read is definitely still there.

That interesting b/c the whole "keeping up with the game, and summarizing whats happening" is a crutch i leaned in hard on when i was inexperienced scum. Players are less liekly to turn on you when you say mostly uncontroversial things as a newer player in site meta. I will have to read AGambling Pigs posts agian as I dont recall them v well.

They had only 5 posts so I'm not sure it really meant much.

"Quick lets flip this inactive slot before we get a replacement!" Froggking looking really town if AGB slot turns out to be mafia.

This is a super bad way to describe this and makes Frogsterking look particularly bad if ORAM ever flips town. I dislike ORAM's posts but I dislike the way you are approaching them even more.

Not really sure about the idea of flipping ORAM today since its so low info tho.

This feels like you want it to happen later so Frogsterking can die right after.

I think Grendel is right to point out that ER has been inactive since pressure started to build on them. The pressure consequently dissipated, and they have remained inactive except a quick comment after being prodded.

Who is "ER"?

Lunar standing in the face of death and actively tempting Luca to hammer runs contrary to how survivalistic most scum are. It would be safer in that situation to just go ahead and (fake)claim and hope for the best as scum. Lunar actively spiting on that notion and aggressing the players active in that point of time is pretty inline with town behavior.

in short i think Lunar is more likely town then scum.

I get where you’re coming from, but I could also see that behavior coming from scum who know their time is up/are getting bussed.

I do think Bugs is the more likely scum of the two, and my recent meta-dive reinforces this belief.

I feel like if Bugspray was scum, they could just claim something really powerful and they'd be safe for the rest of this game. What they claimed doesn't match that description.

I'm willing to hammer Lunar, ORAM, and bugs today in that order of preference. I'd be pretty stunned if there isn't at least one scum in this group and not very stunned at all if there are three.

Nulls I have are Trendall and OutworldER.

I townread everyone else. If one of my townreads is wrong my first pick would be Amelie as a proxy read off Gamma's intuition and my second pick would be NPOM because of his profile. There is also a weak associative tell I pointed out between the ORAM slot and Momrangal.

I think I'm going to drop Frogsterking to a scum read. It feels to me like he is looking for the easy pushes.

I feel like this is either a huge play style clash or you are scum. I hate nearly every post you post.

Curious why frogster didn’t address this when bringing up that point about emotion before
Btw I think part of the problem with your posts Amelie is you put your thoughts behind the spoiler= tag so it’s harder to engage with.

If I did not put them in spoilers, people might complain about their length.

@NPOM and the other anti-s: still this personality stuff is bullshit?

I did not read that entire block of text. If Frogsterking can summarize it and make it shorter, I am willing to read it.

You recently said you reviewed my posting and thought me town. Then soon after I moved you to my scum reads and this post followed.
Can you talk to me about how you are thinking?

That isn’t an accurate representation of the timeline
I feel like it’s hard to parse out what factors into your reads so they come across as baseless and random

Amelie is a bit disorganized but, she posts stream of thought posts in the attempt or organize and communicate her thoughts and ideas which I maintain is difficult for newer scum to do. It looks like to me that her mind is moving much faster than she is able to get down on paper and it does show that she is trying to solve a puzzle vs trying to manipulate the situation to make it look like she is solving a puzzle.

I don't think scum defends me here and this is a very accusation representation of my play. I am very overwhelmed by the amount posted and am always catching up again and again. Momrangal moved back up to a townread.

yeah that kinda seems to be the case imo as well
your breakdown of me v. Amelie and grednel v. Amelie really made that click I think. It also covered my question towards you before of you you weren't factoring in Amelie's own distaste for Grendel, fwiw

I thought you just called Frogsterkings personality tests bullshit.

VOTE: bugspray

I'm not entirely confident on this but I'm going with the consensus

This is the worst vote on bugspray so far. Im dropping this to null.

For now, since the deadline is coming up and no one particularly agrees with my reads, I will compromise and

VOTE: Lunar Martian

Summary of my big post:

1) Big-picture wise Gamma, Grendel, and Amelie all have very intuitive personalities (Openness) that are roughly similar.

2) Gamma and Grendel are primarily applying logic while Amelie is primarily relying on her intuition.

3) Looking at sub traits, Gamma has a slight preference for Order which could become a target for Amelie who is going off her intuition because it naturally clashes with Openness. Grendel has a slight preference for Cautiousness which could also become a target for Amelie; both because it also clashes with Openness and because it can often be a scum tell.

While writing the post I understood Amelie's process more and felt confident again that Amelie is town. I believe Gamma had a similar experience.

Momrangal coming in with her second opinion, which included that my second-guessing of your alignment was a waste of energy and was making her irate, caused me to become more confident in my town read on Momrangal, ironically making the process worth it FMPOV.

[Frogsterking]

I think bugs claim is real and as Luca said, it doesn't mean that they're town 100%. I think there is a decent chance it will become obvious later.

I believe the lynch should be flipped onto Lunar or ORAM.

[Frogsterking]

Someone said earlier that bugs was a creative player. As a backup neigbor, what couldn't they come up with a better back-up fakeclaim?

i literally crumbed it very early from the MOMENT i sniffed who might be in the hood

I think what she's implying is good for you bugs because she's implying you're telling the truth or you would have been more creative.

[Frogsterking]

Someone said earlier that bugs was a creative player. As a backup neigbor, what couldn't they come up with a better back-up fakeclaim?

i literally crumbed it very early from the MOMENT i sniffed who might be in the hood

I think what she's implying is good for you bugs because she's implying you're telling the truth or you would have been more creative.

backup anything is a really bold fake claim because it has no real point other than to be the target of a rolecop/complex role if there is nothing to actually backup

maybe a backup miller could be conftown if a rolecop can read them because i don't think scum backup miller would pass nrg

Now you're arguing against yourself because you're saying saying it's exactly the kind of role you would make up.

[Frogsterking]

bugs come on, can you say something good about Lunar?

[Frogsterking]

Something about the number of people calling bugspray second best makes them seem more likely scum. Not because buddies are trying to push townies rather than bus, but because generally the way to avoid getting limmed as scum is not to be ultra-town but to just not be the scummiest in the room.

I'm seeing a lot of this second-hand interest in ORAM as well. Galreon, NPOM and I have expressed interest in a potential ORAM execution, or at least in Galreon's case he stated that ORAM was worth a closer look. I think ORAM might be second or third for Luca as well.

[Frogsterking]

There's a little voice inside my head that's talking me into hammering bugs.

[Frogsterking]

Lunar you have trouble focusing right?

[Frogsterking]

I feel like you're not bothering to read the other player's posts Lunar because you already know their alignment.

[Frogsterking]

@Amelie

In regards to 873 I definitely think you can get accurate scum reads and that personality clashes are not going to explain everything. For one thing, the things you pointed out about Grendel are very similar to ways I've been played in the past, and had you not posted 873 I wouldn't really have been aware of that as a possibility. If the town block is indeed all town or mostly town I'm expecting them to be dying first, so when Gamma suspected you might be full of shit I wanted to talk it out with him sooner rather later.

[Frogsterking]

k. So bugs is scum?

[Frogsterking]

I know I just smoked a bowl so I'm not convinced I saw what I just thought I saw.

[Frogsterking]

Wait. It's the opposite. bugs is town.

Sorry, I'm used to games with daytalk, so that change in rules means bugs just town told instead of scum told.

[Frogsterking]

I'm used to games that *DON'T have daytalk, so my instinct when I read bugs post was that they were outing the soft for their partner because they believed i was about to hammer them.

[Frogsterking]

NPOM what do you think about bugs more recent post?

[Frogsterking]

Okay Amelie what happened just now is this:

Most of my time playing in a mafia game was played in live chat and mafia couldn't talk to each other during the day. So right before a mafia died sometimes they would out their pr read if they had one. For a second I thought bugs had read my previous post about hammering them and was outting their pr read on Lunar Martian for their partner, before bugs got hammered.

Then several seconds after I posted I realized I was in a game with day talk, so the fact that bugs pointed that out was actually something scum WOULDN'T do because they could just tell it to their partner in day chat.

[Frogsterking]

UNVOTE:

Right so inside we all know what the right move is here:

VOTE: ORAM

[Frogsterking]

Heyyy look in the top left we have a "Search this topic..." that wasn't there before was it?

[Frogsterking]

I think it's new. I wonder whether it's a site update, or it's only something that's added into the topic once it reaches a certain amount of pages.

[Frogsterking]

I'm going to try searching "ORAM" and "agb" and "pig" and "AGamblingPig" and see what comes up.

[Frogsterking]

Okay, I only searched for ORAM in the top left so far: one of my biggest weaknesses as a mafia player is that I have a tendency to push eliminations on PRs. I think this is because I'm looking very very hard for someone who might be CONCEALING something, which does not mean always mean that player is scum.

With ORAM I especially don't think that's the case, because there is literally a study done at Stanford on this specific site that found replacements were 2% more likely to be scum. So the fact I scum read the AGamblingPig slot and ORAM is still credible though I may have been terribly wrong on my LunarMartian push.

There is a little bit of statistical evidence that ORAM is the best lynch, and I also strongly believe, as a behavioral scum hunter mainly, not a logical one, that ORAM is concealing something.

[Frogsterking]

As of:

Post #755 (ISO) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 4:53 pm

The slot ORAM replaced into, AGamblingPig, was leading the wagon onto Lunar Martian:

Lunar Martian(4) ~ AGamblingPig(5), Galron(26), bugspray(48), Frogsterking(61)

[Frogsterking]

"agb" and "pig" didn't bring up anything, so on a whim I tried searching "pigs" and a bunch of stuff came up. I found something important but forgot (I'm drinking again) so I'm going to try searching "pigs" again.

I found it, but it doesn't have anything to do with this particular execution (I think) so I'm going to put it into spoilers in case I get NK.

Spoiler:

OutWorld

ER

, why are you being out-of-character at 723 ?

[Frogsterking]

yeah bugspray is a behavioral player it's weird and stuff etc.

[Frogsterking]

this website's meta is really warped around a particular meta that's overly adapted to the format IMO.

Good for me!

[Frogsterking]

bugspray seems like a player I would like to see on the playerlist on epicmafia.com for example. On mafiascum.net maybe less so, but I have a relatively *high* belief right now that he is town so I'd be more likely to sheep him.

[Frogsterking]

bugspray seems like a player I would like to see on the playerlist on epicmafia.com for example. On mafiascum.net maybe less so, but I have a relatively *high* belief right now that

they are

town so I'd be more likely to sheep

THEM

.

I'm sorry I'm trying!

[Frogsterking]

this website's meta is really warped around a particular meta that's overly adapted to the format IMO.

Good for me!

don't you need to play a fuckton of irc games to get access to the em forums? seems kinda wack

I think EM had to deal with more hackers and stuff in their history than most other websites do, so sounds right. I never really became a fixture in their community but I almost won a trophy once.

I think it's new. I wonder whether it's a site update, or it's only something that's added into the topic once it reaches a certain amount of pages.

it's been around for a while

Does it not show up until a certain amount of pages?

[Frogsterking]

idk
maybe you just missed it? That or it takes time to show up for each person

That's kind of cool, like you get more perks once you reach a certain amount of posts.

[Frogsterking]

Momrangal I see what you mean and I will vote OutWorlderER tomorrow if it makes sense after we see the ORAM flip.

I understand that your logical so it's a tough sell but I believe the ORAM lynch has weird statistical reasons for being the optimal D1 lynch.

[Frogsterking]

@Gamma

I think it's important that you join the ORAM wagon because it will be a great chance to test the validity of the town block.

[Frogsterking]

@Gamma

I suspect it may be a scenario where the scummiest players were a combination of scum and prs and ORAM is so much more likely to be scum than a pr because AGamblingPig wouldn't have flaked if he rolled pr. On top of that both bugs and Lunar hinted very strongly they were pr, and AGamblingPig and even ORAM did not. If that wasn't enough, AGamblingPig was voting LunarMartian the whole time until ORAM came back and unvoted.

[Frogsterking]

A votecount would be nice.

I'm doing Lunar or Bugspray today. I'm still not sold on ORAM wagon.

Bugspray's claim is more likely to be scum, I think. I absolutely do not think a Town Backup Neighbor openly specs on neighbors.

Reviewing the evidence, I'm inclined to say Bugspray is a Traitor, actually. I thjnk his open spec on neighbors makes more sense from the perspective of a Traitor with info on Neighbors/Masons in the setup.

I think you're just not going to vote ORAM because he's your scum buddy.

[Frogsterking]

OutWorldER is so scum LMAO

[Frogsterking]

Look at OutWorldER's iso from the perspective that ORAM is scum, NPOM is town, and Momrangel is town.

[Frogsterking]

And OutWorldER is even advocating for bugspray now too who will probably flip town !!

There are already a few on ORAM, get ORAM today and OutWorldER tomorrow and track/inv Trendall. Any traitors in the town block can get flushed out by refusing to vote ORAM.

[Frogsterking]

And OutWorldER is even

*advocating

for bugspray now too who will probably flip town !!

There are already a few on ORAM, get ORAM today and OutWorldER tomorrow and track/inv Trendall. Any traitors in the town block can get flushed out by refusing to vote ORAM.

By

*advocating

for bugs I meant OutWorldER is advocating to EXECUTE bugspray who is some kind of crappy PR role for town. At other game-states during D1 OutWorldER can be observed lurking, gaslighting outspoken town players like Momrangal and NPOM, or defending scum like ORAM.

[Frogsterking]

And OutWorldER is even

*advocating

for bugspray now too who will probably flip town !!

There are already a few on ORAM, get ORAM today and OutWorldER tomorrow and track/inv Trendall. Any traitors in the town block can get flushed out by refusing to vote ORAM.

By

*advocating

for bugs I meant OutWorldER is advocating to EXECUTE bugspray who is some kind of crappy PR role for town. At other game-states during D1 OutWorldER can be observed lurking, gaslighting outspoken town players like Momrangal and NPOM, or defending scum like ORAM.

I don't like voting people based on 2% chances with an ISO I don't see any agenda/fault in.

*I also don't see where you get "he's my partner" from because why on earth would I go up to bat for a lurk fuck that wouldn't be helping me.

@bugs: my bad, apologies.

*Now the mysterious OutWorldER can be observed raging about his scum partner who he blames for his loss, because OutWorldER knows after ORAM is lynched and Trendall is investigated the game is most likely autoloss.

[Frogsterking]

gaslighting outspoken town players like Momrangal and NPOM

i don't think that word means what you think it means.

your also being a real dickhead right now. you are also dodging the actual points I'm making and making no effort to actually engage me in good faith.

No you're the dickhead because you're trying to kill all the town players.

And if I can define gaslighting will you vote ORAM?

[Frogsterking]

i'm a dick for pushing my reads, good to know.

*and the answer is no.

maybe if ORAM is the only wagon at E-1 and there's only like 3 hours remaining. But i'm more confident in Bugs/Lunar.

this is also the 2nd time I've noticed this game you've tried to bully people into doing what you want. The first time was with NPOM in 46. Not sure if it's AI for you because you seem incredibly sure of yourself to an almost insufferable degree.

*That's fine that was all I needed to know.

[Frogsterking]

It's at four I think but maybe more, it has Grendel, myself, Luca, and bugs. NPOM and Galreon have also expressed interest in voting ORAM.

[Frogsterking]

There's a little voice inside my head that's talking me into hammering bugs.

What personality type is it?

Yours?

[Frogsterking]

Hey guys (including ORAM) my bad on pushing for ORAM, I lobbied hard for that and it was wrong. Amelie was pretty sure he was town so I think there were things I missed (including listening to Amelie). I'm going to try to be more concise today and focus on the evidence and listen more.

VOTE: Trendall

Here's how I resorted the slots during the night, with my current stab at the scum team in the bottom three:

Town:

Entire original town block, Lucas, Momrangal, and bugspray

Null:

OutWorldER

Scum:

Lunar Martian, Trendall

[Frogsterking]

I'd join you on VOTE: Lunar Martian

VOTE: Lunar Martian

[Frogsterking]

I think D1 may have been an off-wagon day. I put your slot in null because I'm most open to re-evaluating you.

Can you elaborate any more on what appeared to be a fairly strong town read on ORAM, OutWorldER?

[Frogsterking]

@bugs

I think that you know the best way to handle the situation.

leading a shit-push against an

LHF

slot and then immediately opening the second day by pushing another

LHF

slot that protested that same wagon

yeah okay

VOTE: Frogsterking

I'm pretty confident on Frogster/Bugspray now, but I'm holding off on pushing them for the time being since I want them to share info from Amelie's hood, assuming their claim is real (if they get CC'd they're getting turbo-elimmed immediately though).

Can someone tell me what this acronym stands for? LHF?

Did Amélie crumb who she was gonna visit last night?

(I sincerely doubt mafia intentionally chose to target her)

Bug spray, who else is in the neighbor hood?

I disagree, I was worried that she was going to night killed, she was obv towning and killing her leaves a little bit of ambiguity about the sanctity of the town block. Makes me suspect Lunar more.

*@ALL*

Looking over yesterday I'd love some GtH reads on Luca, Momrangul, and Trendel from anybody available to do so

GtH: Luca town, Momrangul town, Trendel scum

Luca: Poses a huge a threat because of the possibility of being deep scum. Seems like he may have some acting or fine arts background because of his ability to portray mental states of mind from his town play while scum. I meta dove him and found some things that made me think he was town this game. For one thing, Luca is a bit of an anomaly because he actually posts MORE as scum. My interactions with him felt very townie. My instinct is to trust, and I think the susceptibility of his account to meta diving is a reason to want him in the end game.

Momrangul: I think that Momrangul may also pose a huge threat as deep scum. I picked up on a very clear intuitive signal when I first read her opening post, that she is tactical, and I've lost many games in the past because of players like this. My interactions with her felt very townie and she's town told clearly in multiple instances IMO. I think she's town.

Trendel: He hasn't managed to town tell a single time this game FMPOV. I guess there was a moment when he was being cooperative with Momrangul and voted OutWorldER, I'm curious whether Momrangul felt this was a townie interaction. He did say that he's all-neuroticism in his response to the SSS so maybe he is nervous. He's sort of playing the "Anti Town" archetype but doesn't seem like he's enjoying it very much. Posts just enough to not be the least active player. My instinct is that he's scum.

[Frogsterking]

I think D1 may have been an off-wagon day. I put your slot in null because I'm most open to re-evaluating you.

Can you elaborate any more on what appeared to be a fairly strong town read on ORAM, OutWorldER?

It was never a strong townread, or even a townread at all but the slot was blatant LHF that never said or did anything too egregious. I would've been open to limming it on future days had ORAM continued with that but at that time bugspray appeared far scummier with a clear mafia agenda visible in their posts. The fact that you dodged the points I made against them and blatantly approached me in bad faith at the end of the day only gives me further confidence in pushing you two.

I assume by "D1 may have been an off-wagon day" you mean you think scum were off-wagon? I'd like to hear your reasoning on that, or what you mean if that's not the case.

I'm not sure what LHF means, also, there were four reasons I townread bugs at the conclusion of D1:

a) Their claim seemed real.
b) They have a tendency to be miseliminated, especially as pr apparently. I knew this before I even played with bugs because another player mentioned it in an earlier game.
c) bugs pointed out Lunar's soft in-thread and (if it's real) if they were scum they would have shut up about it. It was a moment that was such a strong town tell it made me reconsider.
d) Amelie who I had just resorted as town had bugs as a strong townread.

Because of the soft pointed out in c) I was looking to D1 another player other than Lunar or bugs now, and my scum team at the time was Lunar/ORAM/bugs so it made sense through process of elimination.

I was very intentionally provoking you by approaching in bad faith because you're guarded and your slot is difficult to read and you did not take my test so I do not know if this is AI. I believed you might be raging about your scum partner when you called ORAM/agb a lurking fuck that would never help you. I also have seen scum use a very similar line about a lurker who was not their partner. Once you used that line, I had you as obv scum. During N1 I self-reflected and decided my read of you was not based on evidence, that's why I'm open to resorting your slot.

I believe scum may have been off-wagon because I don't think scum are anxious to jump onto a wagon that might cost them town cred. I think from scums point of view EoD1, if they do nothing, then either there's a nolim or a town gets lynched.

[Frogsterking]

I think D1 may have been an off-wagon day. I put your slot in null because I'm most open to re-evaluating you.

Can you elaborate any more on what appeared to be a fairly strong town read on ORAM, OutWorldER?

It was never a strong townread, or even a townread at all but the slot was blatant LHF that never said or did anything too egregious. I would've been open to limming it on future days had ORAM continued with that but at that time bugspray appeared far scummier with a clear mafia agenda visible in their posts. The fact that you dodged the points I made against them and blatantly approached me in bad faith at the end of the day only gives me further confidence in pushing you two.

I assume by "D1 may have been an off-wagon day" you mean you think scum were off-wagon? I'd like to hear your reasoning on that, or what you mean if that's not the case.

I guess what I'm getting at about the bad faith thing is that the intent was tactical and for sorting, not to shade you or for personal reasons.

[Frogsterking]

He did say that he's all-neuroticism in his response to the SSS so maybe he is nervous.

Maybe I just can't be bothered because I find your personality stuff unbearable to read. What would I be 'nervous' about sitting at home on my laptop posting on an online forum? I'm like, somebody who barely ever gets nervous, 'neuroticism' comes in a lot of different forms. But you've completely free associated away from your personality type results there and are just speculating, making wrong assumptions, completely using your own imagination while using the language of the personality tests to try and justify and give credence to the fact that all of these observations about people you're making are complete fantasies you're inventing in your own head which don't map onto reality in any significant way whatsoever. Which you've been doing all game and it's like...I can't tell you how this is just my least favourite thing.

There's been a thought in the back of my mind since the beginning that Frogster just threw out the OCEAN test shit to look smart and accumulate early TR's while being able to throw out a bunch of nonsense to justify his pushes. Securing that thought in my mind is that he himself never shared his results and didn't even link a test in the beginning, refusing to, for some reason. It all seems in very bad faith.

The only thing that stops me thinking that any of this is suspicious is that years and years back I used to spend a lot of time talking to people in personality type communities and so on online, and they literally all talk exactly like that, it's the weirdest thing. Which is why it's ironic that the player called me an 'archetype' somewhere earlier on in the game. Like you can think it's scummy behaviour, but it's identical to the behaviour of somebody who has discovered personality types for the first time and thinks they're the ultimate explanation for everything and are relevant in every situation involving people ever.

Because my point was like...why did they not get us to all do the same test if they were that serious about it? Why get different people to pick their own unverified internet tests which could throw up entirely different results? It all seems like it's not being done in good faith and the person's mafia, absolutely. But then go on to a personality type forum and talk to a couple of them and you see the same sorts of phenomena. This is just how people who have recently got into personality types are, like they don't think.

You sound like my dad after I beat him at chess lol.

[Frogsterking]

Bugs pointing out Lunar's TPR soft can go either way. I can see it as how you described it but your discarding the very real possibility of Mafia Traitor I brought up EoD1. I think there's a definite possibility of them pointing out targets in-thread, especially with them also pointing to Galron/NPOM openly. It's why I'm pretty sure Lunar is town, though I'll admit my reasoning for TRing him is mostly conjecture.

It's why I'm very wary of the Backup Neighbor claim. I could easily see a mod using that as a way to have a Traitor be "recruited" so to speak into the main mafia group.

I think that your theory makes sense and that sounds like a good setup. I wasn't really thinking about that possibility because bugs behavior afterword made me think they were town. Like if bugs got promoted to the town hood instead of the scum hood and they are traitor why not share what they learned here in-thread? I will keep your idea in the back of my mind because it sounds like a possibility.

There's been a thought in the back of my mind since the beginning that

Frogster just threw out the OCEAN test shit to look smart and accumulate early TR's

while being able to throw out a bunch of nonsense to justify his pushes. Securing that thought in my mind is that

he himself never shared his results and didn't even link a test in the beginning

, refusing to, for some reason. It all seems in very bad faith.

That and the wagon yesterday make-up why I'm voting him right now.

a) In a best-case scenario I expected to get TRed for it because it gave town more information to work with and eventually lead to a D1 scum lynch, and in a worst-case scenario I expected to get no engagement and eventually be lynched for it. I wasn't sure which way it would skew.

b) By the time I realized I hadn't posted my own results I wasn't sure if it was wanted. FMPOV when I see a player suggesting an RQS for example I'm not as interested in their own results because I felt like I learned about them from the questions they came up with. I can definitely answer it now if anyone would like.

[Frogsterking]

Trendall here is a link to the OCEAN community lol. https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=e ... odel&btnG=

Trendall in a nutshell:

Slating personality tests is really one of those 'world's most non-controversial opinions' things, where you'll get like ten people all agreeing with each other saying 'personality tests are so dumb!', as if each individual one thinks they're this lone minority voice crusading against the hordes of people who love personality tests. Then if you engage with them they'll tell you that people can't be put into boxes.

He did say that he's all-neuroticism in his response to the SSS so maybe he is nervous.

Maybe I just can't be bothered because I find your personality stuff unbearable to read. What would I be 'nervous' about sitting at home on my laptop posting on an online forum? I'm like, somebody who barely ever gets nervous, 'neuroticism' comes in a lot of different forms. But you've completely free associated away from your personality type results there and are just speculating, making wrong assumptions, completely using your own imagination while using the language of the personality tests to try and justify and give credence to the fact that all of these observations about people you're making are complete fantasies you're inventing in your own head which don't map onto reality in any significant way whatsoever. Which you've been doing all game and it's like...I can't tell you how this is just my least favourite thing.

[Frogsterking]

I love personality tests and all this sort of thing, I just think the way that you in particular are trying to apply them to this game is bad.

It sounds like your opinion is just the null hypothesis and you're providing some value here by being the devil's advocate, or as I said earlier the Anti-Town.

[Frogsterking]

@Trendall

Do you stand by your earlier evaluation of the Gamma slot back from this point in D1:

I think this page says either Gamma or Luca is Mafia.

I agree with this post and happy to get either of those players.

Actually not Luca necessarily, it's more that I'm happy to eliminate Gamma.

Okay. Would you like to say why?

Not particularly. Post #312 is the main reason but also just general vibes.

idk what's wrong with post 312 but w/e

Sry I'm trying to do like three things at once so haven't bothered to format this properly but check these two links for like, what I'm talking about here -

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12230155

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12298023

That's me in other games identifying some mafia people

[Frogsterking]

I can get behind a tentative game solve that returns bugs to the PoE with the entire scum team being within Lunar/bugs/OutWorldER/Trendall.

IF you believe the entire scum team is within this PoE, AND the vast majority of living town players agree with with this PoE,
THEN the scum team MUST disrupt the status quo in some way, AND right now is their best chance to do so, with an 8 to 3 town to scum ratio.

This is the clear scum motivation I'm seeing right now in OutWorldER's play that I'm not seeing in Trendall or bugs, even though I agree OutWorldER successfully dropped town tells EoD1 and so far on D2, I believe he could simply be attempting to fight his way out of the PoE. If this PoE is correct I don't see how scum!Trendall or scum!bugs are expecting to win the game playing today the way they have, unless they are expecting OutWorldER or some deep scum to carry them.

[Frogsterking]

I'm standing by my behavioral reads that scum are mostly or completely in Lunar/bugs/OutWorldER/Trendall, and that they're now attempting to dig themselves out of the priority of elimination. I think Lunar and OutWorldER are demonstrating this behavior the most clearly.

Lunar's surprising and compelling case on Trendall followed by Trendall's reaction is definitely my favorite thing I've seen all game, and made them both look worse IMO.

I didn't really read Gamma as scum at ALL yesterday but being traitor I could see more so.

[Frogsterking]

Grendel officially moved back down to scum. I just don't like what I'm seeing. Feel like this is a great way to try to pocket Lunar Martian. I just don't like it.

He was at L-1 with an intended hammer.

I asked you earlier, who do you even think is the scum that was commandeering that wagon?

Well it looks like you're both in your early 20s so scratch that theory out.

Replace chronological age with mafia age. There is an unnatural amount if irration and useage of energy trying to keep up with the newer generation of mafia

Including an irritation at you for dropping amelie down to null- maybe scum

VOTE: Trendall

I prefer OWER over Trendall especially if Lunar is scum here. The fact that he doesn't mind OWER and Trendall but votes Trendalls smaller wagon over OWERS larger wagon at the time (by a vote or two) feels like he's trying to push a CW to a possible partner only to leave himself open to bus him towards the end to reduce the association between the two of them.

Grendel, how do you feel about Lunar stating he doesn't mind offing OWER and Trendall yet choosing the smaller wagon betwen the two?

You recently said you reviewed my posting and thought me town. Then soon after I moved you to my scum reads and this post followed.
Can you talk to me about how you are thinking?

That isn’t an accurate representation of the timeline
I feel like it’s hard to parse out what factors into your reads so they come across as baseless and random

Amelie is a bit disorganized but, she posts stream of thought posts in the attempt or organize and communicate her thoughts and ideas which I maintain is difficult for newer scum to do. It looks like to me that her mind is moving much faster than she is able to get down on paper and it does show that she is trying to solve a puzzle vs trying to manipulate the situation to make it look like she is solving a puzzle.

I think Momrangal is town in these posts above because of her line of questioning on Amelie, breaking up the TvT, and what appear to be genuine solving attempts.

I think there are more reasons to believe Momrangal is town but this is enough for me at the moment. If she is scum then she is playing for VERY deep scum in my opinion because the quotes above are really furthering a town agenda.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: OutWorldER

First of all, I want to get this out of the way. I can feel his hot breath and cold sweat emanating from my laptop as he beats furiously to work his way out of the PoE. Also, most players do not enjoy playing scum and I can't find a semblance of joy in any of his posts.

Second of all, I remember that Luca had questions for me and if anyone else did you might need to @ me again because I think I missed it.

UNVOTE:

Im willing to take flack if Lunar ends up flipping scum. I am wary of a world where Lunar is a rude town PR given his abrasiveness to claiming.

I'll probably revote once i do some thinking.

Grendel already openly speculated that Lunar could be a town PR as well, so Bugs wasn't even the first to bring it up.

Would you consider this a townslip on Grendel's part as well, Frogster?

Wow I totally missed that Bugs wasn't the first to point this out.

I'm not sure if it's a townslip or not, there could be something major to draw from this post but I'm not really getting anything other than that it's consistent with other material I've seen from Grendel.

I have to get some rest soon. I'll try to swing by in the morning before I go to work.

There's a very good chance that im getting nk'd tonight if Luca vs Lunar is TvT. Historically I've found that Scum are afraid of townies that are willing to actively break up TvTs inthread.

The more I consider this the more I find it weird coming from a Town perspective.

@Frogster:

I'm interested in what you think about this too.

Yeah I found this weird too and I took a mental note of it to FoS him if he kept saying stuff like that. There was another weird comment too on a different entity (someone using meta to mirror his town play and get town read by him). I think Grendel may just be slightly weird in a thinking-outside-the-box way, and posting in a semi-stream of consciousness style, I'm not sure if it's AI.

Now, as a side affect (effect?) of taking that mental note about the TvT, I've been much more aware of the potential of TvTs this game, which as far as I know has been improving my reads. So it's possible Grendel thinks more than other players about TvTs because thinking that way has been helpful to him in the past.

I feel as though Grendel has put a lot of effort into looking Townie and solving, asking questions etc, but I don't see a lot of substance behind a lot of his questions, and most of his play has been on the safe side. Asking questions to the thread etc seems an easy way to look productive without actually doing much.

One of the reasons I TR him was because of the way he handled the argument between myself and Lunar, but the above quote again shows he was very aware of it being a townie thing to do.

You asked me about my read on Grendel a couple times as you were resorting the Grendel, Momrangal, and another slot, and it seems to me that you could benefit from reading my long post; post 815, if only to understand exactly how I'm sorting the Grendel slot and why, possibly also to shed some insight into your own observations on Grendel's behavior.

[Frogsterking]

Lunar's surprising and compelling case on Trendall

Which to reiterate is 'Trendall had a townread on me and is therefore mafia'

I'm standing by my behavioral reads that scum are mostly or completely in Lunar/bugs/OutWorldER/Trendall, and that they're now attempting to dig themselves out of the priority of elimination. I think Lunar and OutWorldER are demonstrating this behavior the most clearly.

Lunar's surprising and compelling case on Trendall followed by Trendall's reaction is definitely my favorite thing I've seen all game, and made them both look worse IMO.

I didn't really read Gamma as scum at ALL yesterday but being traitor I could see more so.

Why does LM’s case on Trendall make LM look worse?

[Frogsterking]

Frogster, does the fact Grendel was the first to point out that Lunar is a potential Town PR change your view on the supposed Bugs townslip?

Yes.

[Frogsterking]

Frogster, does the fact Grendel was the first to point out that Lunar is a potential Town PR change your view on the supposed Bugs townslip?

Frogster, does the fact Grendel was the first to point out that Lunar is a potential Town PR change your view on the supposed Bugs townslip?

Yes.

And it makes me consider that of the Lunar/bugs/OutWorldER/Trendall box, Trendall is the townie, which is the impetus for Lunar's case.

[Frogsterking]

Frogster, does the fact Grendel was the first to point out that Lunar is a potential Town PR change your view on the supposed Bugs townslip?

Frogster, does the fact Grendel was the first to point out that Lunar is a potential Town PR change your view on the supposed Bugs townslip?

Yes.

Frogster, does the fact Grendel was the first to point out that Lunar is a potential Town PR change your view on the supposed Bugs townslip?

Frogster, does the fact Grendel was the first to point out that Lunar is a potential Town PR change your view on the supposed Bugs townslip?

Yes.

And it makes me consider that of the Lunar/bugs/OutWorldER/Trendall box, Trendall is the townie, which is the impetus for Lunar's case.

Which makes me consider:

leading a shit-push against an

LHF slot

and then immediately opening the second day by pushing

another LHF slot that protested that same wagon

yeah okay

VOTE: Frogsterking

I'm pretty confident on Frogster/Bugspray now, but I'm holding off on pushing them for the time being since I want them to share info from Amelie's hood, assuming their claim is real (if they get CC'd they're getting turbo-elimmed immediately though).

Like when did OutWorldER start townreading Trendall? Why is he assuming Trendall is LHF instead of scum?

I could see OutWorldER being a scum PR trying to buss bugs here and Lunar is just trying to hang on as long as possible and set up a competing town wagon.

[Frogsterking]

I'm pretty ready to scum case OutWorldER based on his ISO alone and not taking into account any partner associative tells, I see a very distinct scum agenda from his iso as long as you assume both NPOM and I are town.

If you scum read by tone Luca, look at the unenthusiastic and mildly pissed off tone in all of OutWorldER's posts.

[Frogsterking]

I agree, and in Trendall's case it's in his meta to play this way, OutWorldER I'm not sure.

From my experience almost all town players will engage with me here in some way:

I think D1 may have been an off-wagon day. I put your slot in null because I'm most open to re-evaluating you.

Can you elaborate any more on what appeared to be a fairly strong town read on ORAM, OutWorldER?

It was never a strong townread, or even a townread at all but the slot was blatant LHF that never said or did anything too egregious. I would've been open to limming it on future days had ORAM continued with that but at that time bugspray appeared far scummier with a clear mafia agenda visible in their posts. The fact that you dodged the points I made against them and blatantly approached me in bad faith at the end of the day only gives me further confidence in pushing you two.

I assume by "D1 may have been an off-wagon day" you mean you think scum were off-wagon? I'd like to hear your reasoning on that, or what you mean if that's not the case.

I'm not sure what LHF means, also, there were four reasons I townread bugs at the conclusion of D1:

a) Their claim seemed real.
b) They have a tendency to be miseliminated, especially as pr apparently. I knew this before I even played with bugs because another player mentioned it in an earlier game.
c) bugs pointed out Lunar's soft in-thread and (if it's real) if they were scum they would have shut up about it. It was a moment that was such a strong town tell it made me reconsider.
d) Amelie who I had just resorted as town had bugs as a strong townread.

Because of the soft pointed out in c) I was looking to D1 another player other than Lunar or bugs now, and my scum team at the time was Lunar/ORAM/bugs so it made sense through process of elimination.

I was very intentionally provoking you by approaching in bad faith because you're guarded and your slot is difficult to read and you did not take my test so I do not know if this is AI. I believed you might be raging about your scum partner when you called ORAM/agb a lurking fuck that would never help you. I also have seen scum use a very similar line about a lurker who was not their partner. Once you used that line, I had you as obv scum. During N1 I self-reflected and decided my read of you was not based on evidence, that's why I'm open to resorting your slot.

I believe scum may have been off-wagon because I don't think scum are anxious to jump onto a wagon that might cost them town cred. I think from scums point of view EoD1, if they do nothing, then either there's a nolim or a town gets lynched.

I think D1 may have been an off-wagon day. I put your slot in null because I'm most open to re-evaluating you.

Can you elaborate any more on what appeared to be a fairly strong town read on ORAM, OutWorldER?

It was never a strong townread, or even a townread at all but the slot was blatant LHF that never said or did anything too egregious. I would've been open to limming it on future days had ORAM continued with that but at that time bugspray appeared far scummier with a clear mafia agenda visible in their posts. The fact that you dodged the points I made against them and blatantly approached me in bad faith at the end of the day only gives me further confidence in pushing you two.

I assume by "D1 may have been an off-wagon day" you mean you think scum were off-wagon? I'd like to hear your reasoning on that, or what you mean if that's not the case.

I guess what I'm getting at about the bad faith thing is that the intent was tactical and for sorting, not to shade you or for personal reasons.

Bugs pointing out Lunar's TPR soft can go either way. I can see it as how you described it but your discarding the very real possibility of Mafia Traitor I brought up EoD1. I think there's a definite possibility of them pointing out targets in-thread, especially with them also pointing to Galron/NPOM openly. It's why I'm pretty sure Lunar is town, though I'll admit my reasoning for TRing him is mostly conjecture.

It's why I'm very wary of the Backup Neighbor claim. I could easily see a mod using that as a way to have a Traitor be "recruited" so to speak into the main mafia group.

I think that your theory makes sense and that sounds like a good setup. I wasn't really thinking about that possibility because bugs behavior afterword made me think they were town. Like if bugs got promoted to the town hood instead of the scum hood and they are traitor why not share what they learned here in-thread? I will keep your idea in the back of my mind because it sounds like a possibility.

There's been a thought in the back of my mind since the beginning that

Frogster just threw out the OCEAN test shit to look smart and accumulate early TR's

while being able to throw out a bunch of nonsense to justify his pushes. Securing that thought in my mind is that

he himself never shared his results and didn't even link a test in the beginning

, refusing to, for some reason. It all seems in very bad faith.

That and the wagon yesterday make-up why I'm voting him right now.

a) In a best-case scenario I expected to get TRed for it because it gave town more information to work with and eventually lead to a D1 scum lynch, and in a worst-case scenario I expected to get no engagement and eventually be lynched for it. I wasn't sure which way it would skew.

b) By the time I realized I hadn't posted my own results I wasn't sure if it was wanted. FMPOV when I see a player suggesting an RQS for example I'm not as interested in their own results because I felt like I learned about them from the questions they came up with. I can definitely answer it now if anyone would like.

The fact that OutWorldER disengages and then later changes his vote but claims I'm still scum is either a scum or butt hurt townie in my opinion.

[Frogsterking]

Does scum choose to 1v1 you here rather than just kill you? Granted, it's possible Amelie might have taken a bullet for you, but I'm still not sure scum would approach it in this manner.

I'm much more used to passive scum players to be honest. Scum who have an active agenda and plan are pretty few and far between from my experience.

I'll stay open minded though if you want to do that scum case.

Interesting, I'm more used to teams with 1 scum that has an active agenda and tries to plan, at least in some capacity, while the others are either passive or try to follow.

And I'll stay open minded to OutWorldER being the town in Lunar/Bugs/OutWorldER/Trendall or that my PoE is wrong.

[Frogsterking]

Tunneling is real. I really see no reason to say he's scum based on that, I have to be honest.

With ORAM's flip in mind, I find Outworld's end of D1 posting Townie, and I like his push on Bugs and the traitor theory. 1007 is decent as well.

I could well understand why you wanted ORAM eliminated, and I could also understand Outworld's position. I usually dislike the term TvT, but I think this is a fine example of that.

Yeah I could definitely see me and OutWorldER being TvT.

Do you think it's probable that Lunar is bussing Trendall here?

[Frogsterking]

I get the feeling Lunar is Town based on their recent posts. You theorized earlier that Lunar's meta could be different from their previous town game due to this being their first time out of the Newbie queue, and their recent posts are much more in line from what I'd expect from Town!Lunar.

I'll go back and check though to make sure.

I think that explanation is likely part of the reason for Lunar's change in gameplay, both from meta and from D1 to D2, I don't believe it necessarily means they has to be Town!Lunar though. The strangeness of D1 could be explained by BOTH adjusting out of the Newbie queue and to first-time scum.

[Frogsterking]

I'm not really down to vote Momrangal so it looks like our views are mainly aligning on Bugs and Trendall, which is fine with me.

VOTE: Bugspray

[Frogsterking]

Lunar's surprising and compelling case on Trendall

Which to reiterate is 'Trendall had a townread on me and is therefore mafia'

I'm standing by my behavioral reads that scum are mostly or completely in Lunar/bugs/OutWorldER/Trendall, and that they're now attempting to dig themselves out of the priority of elimination. I think Lunar and OutWorldER are demonstrating this behavior the most clearly.

Lunar's surprising and compelling case on Trendall followed by Trendall's reaction is definitely my favorite thing I've seen all game, and made them both look worse IMO.

I didn't really read Gamma as scum at ALL yesterday but being traitor I could see more so.

Why does LM’s case on Trendall make LM look worse?

Okay, so? If you have an issue with that logic, then would the case really be that “compelling”? And in vice versa, why would something like that make LM scum even when the case is compelling?

In my mind it looked like Lunar was just trying to save themselves. It's possible I was just tunneling.

[Frogsterking]

Lunar's surprising and compelling case on Trendall

Which to reiterate is 'Trendall had a townread on me and is therefore mafia'

I'm standing by my behavioral reads that scum are mostly or completely in Lunar/bugs/OutWorldER/Trendall, and that they're now attempting to dig themselves out of the priority of elimination. I think Lunar and OutWorldER are demonstrating this behavior the most clearly.

Lunar's surprising and compelling case on Trendall followed by Trendall's reaction is definitely my favorite thing I've seen all game, and made them both look worse IMO.

I didn't really read Gamma as scum at ALL yesterday but being traitor I could see more so.

Why does LM’s case on Trendall make LM look worse?

Okay, so? If you have an issue with that logic, then would the case really be that “compelling”? And in vice versa, why would something like that make LM scum even when the case is compelling?

Lunar's surprising and compelling case on Trendall

Which to reiterate is 'Trendall had a townread on me and is therefore mafia'

I'm standing by my behavioral reads that scum are mostly or completely in Lunar/bugs/OutWorldER/Trendall, and that they're now attempting to dig themselves out of the priority of elimination. I think Lunar and OutWorldER are demonstrating this behavior the most clearly.

Lunar's surprising and compelling case on Trendall followed by Trendall's reaction is definitely my favorite thing I've seen all game, and made them both look worse IMO.

I didn't really read Gamma as scum at ALL yesterday but being traitor I could see more so.

Why does LM’s case on Trendall make LM look worse?

Okay, so? If you have an issue with that logic, then would the case really be that “compelling”? And in vice versa, why would something like that make LM scum even when the case is compelling?

In my mind it looked like Lunar was just trying to save themselves. It's possible I was just tunneling.

I think part of the reason I used the word compelling was because it was a coherent point that was well presented and because it was also surprising that made it compelling.

I think that Lunar could be scum or could not be, but I WAS tunneling and I'm trying to move away from doing that, and objectively they have started town telling on D2. Same with OutWorldER. Therefore, I'm moving toward a Bugs or Trendall execution today, because I believe my reasons for suspecting them are more objective.

[Frogsterking]

Frogster, does the fact Grendel was the first to point out that Lunar is a potential Town PR change your view on the supposed Bugs townslip?

Frogster, does the fact Grendel was the first to point out that Lunar is a potential Town PR change your view on the supposed Bugs townslip?

Yes.

And it makes me consider that of the Lunar/bugs/OutWorldER/Trendall box, Trendall is the townie, which is the impetus for Lunar's case.

Top tier logic over here: someone made a compelling case on someone I think is Mafie. Because the case is so compelling, they must be Town.

Lol.

I'm more confident in Trendall than in bugs, but if no one else is going to vote bugs today I'll switch. Could I ask everyone to give me a reason they don't want to vote Trendall though?

I'm down for either.

[Frogsterking]

I don't know if Amelie softed her target in the hood, but if she was the target of the NK, Grendel and Luca had the most to gain and Bugs and Momrangal had the most to lose.

[Frogsterking]

Bla Bla Bla I edited my post to TL;DR status so more players will read it. I'll default my vote back to Bugs or Trendall if nothing juicy happens D2.

Bugs was Amelie's most consistent living townread and the one she defended the hardest, and Momrangal was her most recent townread who had also just defended her.

UNVOTE: Bugspray

@All

Did Amelie share any thoughts about night actions from her previous game on this site?

@Bugspray@Gamma

Can you gather anything concrete about who she may have targeted last night or if potential scum in the hood chat may have been able to fish out the prs?

@Galron

Do you believe scum were on or off wagon yesterday?

@Grendel

Do you trust the entire town bloc?

@Momrangal

Do you believe Amelie was the target of the night kill or ate the bullet for someone else?

[Frogsterking]

@Grendel

: Why do you TR Bugs?

Possibly because he believes that NPOM, you, and I are town, and he believes Lunar and OutWorldER are attempting to take cover by aligning themselves behind you. Possibly he also believes that Gamma is scum, and Trendall may be an apathetic

[Frogsterking]

@Grendel

: Why do you TR Bugs?

@Grendel

: Why do you TR Bugs?

Possibly because he believes that NPOM, you, and I are town, and he believes Lunar and OutWorldER are attempting to take cover by aligning themselves behind you. Possibly he also believes that Gamma is scum, and Trendall may be an apathetic

(woops smacked submit somehow)

Possibly Galron also believes Gamma is scum and that Trendall may be an apathetic townie who is correctly FoSing Gamma and OutWorldER.

[Frogsterking]

@Grendel

: Why do you TR Bugs?

@Grendel

: Why do you TR Bugs?

Possibly because he believes that NPOM, you, and I are town, and he believes Lunar and OutWorldER are attempting to take cover by aligning themselves behind you. Possibly he also believes that Gamma is scum, and Trendall may be an apathetic

@Grendel

: Why do you TR Bugs?

@Grendel

: Why do you TR Bugs?

Possibly because he believes that NPOM, you, and I are town, and he believes Lunar and OutWorldER are attempting to take cover by aligning themselves behind you. Possibly he also believes that Gamma is scum, and Trendall may be an apathetic

(woops smacked submit somehow)

Possibly Galron also believes Gamma is scum and that Trendall may be an apathetic townie who is correctly FoSing Gamma and OutWorldER.

Like, OutWorldER and Lunar are both pretending to be okay with pushing Bugs to get on your good side and to set up another town lynch, but both are really trying to further their own agenda of setting up town players for future lynches, in this case myself (OutWorldER) and Trendall (Lunar).

[Frogsterking]

I also quotes the wrong player there, I meant to quote the post where you asked Galron why he TR Bugs and Trendall, not the post where you asked Grendel why he TR Bugs. I'm not sure why Grendel TR Bugs but I would like to know!

[Frogsterking]

Just to clarify I was inferring that GALRON believes NPOM, Luca, and I are town, and he may suspect Gamma, OutWorldER, and Lunar are the scum team, hence his town read on both Bugs and Trendall, who are being attacked by OutWorldER and Lunar, who may be using Luca's FoS on Bugs as a proxy to mount attacks on myself and Trendall, clearing Gamma's path to victory.

@Grendel

: Why do you TR Bugs?

@Grendel

: Why do you TR Bugs?

Possibly because he believes that NPOM, you, and I are town, and he believes Lunar and OutWorldER are attempting to take cover by aligning themselves behind you. Possibly he also believes that Gamma is scum, and Trendall may be an apathetic

(woops smacked submit somehow)

Possibly Galron also believes Gamma is scum and that Trendall may be an apathetic townie who is correctly FoSing Gamma and OutWorldER.

@Grendel

: Why do you TR Bugs?

@Grendel

: Why do you TR Bugs?

Possibly because he believes that NPOM, you, and I are town, and he believes Lunar and OutWorldER are attempting to take cover by aligning themselves behind you. Possibly he also believes that Gamma is scum, and Trendall may be an apathetic

@Grendel

: Why do you TR Bugs?

@Grendel

: Why do you TR Bugs?

Possibly because he believes that NPOM, you, and I are town, and he believes Lunar and OutWorldER are attempting to take cover by aligning themselves behind you. Possibly he also believes that Gamma is scum, and Trendall may be an apathetic

(woops smacked submit somehow)

Possibly Galron also believes Gamma is scum and that Trendall may be an apathetic townie who is correctly FoSing Gamma and OutWorldER.

Like, OutWorldER and Lunar are both pretending to be okay with pushing Bugs to get on your good side and to set up another town lynch, but both are really trying to further their own agenda of setting up town players for future lynches, in this case myself (OutWorldER) and Trendall (Lunar).

My posts above WERE NOT about Grendel's townread, they were about Galron's townread, and addressing these questions below:

I'm more confident in Trendall than in bugs, but if no one else is going to vote bugs today I'll switch. Could I ask everyone to give me a reason they don't want to vote Trendall though?

I think Trendell and Bugs are both town.

OK, why?

Good question.

I see no reason at all to believe Bugs is Town here. I compromised D1 but I'm reluctant to do so again when I'm very confident in my read. Bugs isn't playing like a Townie at all - they're playing like someone who knows their days are numbered and are trying to slip by under the radar for as long as possible.

I'm more confident in Trendall than in bugs, but if no one else is going to vote bugs today I'll switch. Could I ask everyone to give me a reason they don't want to vote Trendall though?

I think Trendell and Bugs are both town.

In this theory, the idea is for the scum team to first attempt to win together, by pushing Bugs, Trendall, then either myself or Momrangal, and failing that, to have Gamma win in the end game as deep scum with Grendel as his "mark".

[Frogsterking]

I'm going to try and show what might be a mutual chainsaw defense here (straight from the wiki).

@Grendel@Momrangal@NPOM

I am most curious to hear your perspectives on this theory, and

@Galron

I'm curious if this is what you were inferring behind the Trendall and Bugs town reads or if you have a completely different theory altogether.

Lunar's surprising and compelling case on Trendall

Which to reiterate is 'Trendall had a townread on me and is therefore mafia'

I'm standing by my behavioral reads that scum are mostly or completely in Lunar/bugs/OutWorldER/Trendall, and that they're now attempting to dig themselves out of the priority of elimination. I think Lunar and OutWorldER are demonstrating this behavior the most clearly.

Lunar's surprising and compelling case on Trendall followed by Trendall's reaction is definitely my favorite thing I've seen all game, and made them both look worse IMO.

I didn't really read Gamma as scum at ALL yesterday but being traitor I could see more so.

Why does LM’s case on Trendall make LM look worse?

Okay, so? If you have an issue with that logic, then would the case really be that “compelling”? And in vice versa, why would something like that make LM scum even when the case is compelling?

Gamma defending LM here (and himself in proxy) by attacking my logic.

Lunar Martian seems like town to me.

Actually I don't think either of these wagons now are any good.

I had a look at Lunar's ISO and I didn't find anything wrong with them really.

You know Luca I was thinking about your case and I actually don't believe the meta change is AI, I think Lunar did better in the Newbie game because he was only in one game and the other players were new.

And there are fewer players (9 instead of 13 makes a huge difference), there are different players, it's an open setup, the roles are more basic, it took place at a different time in their life.....

who is there to defend me? Trendall.

Lol I won't waste my time then. Let's all get this then because there was a fair amount of support for eliminating Lunar yesterday, so we can just like, get it done now.

VOTE: Lunar Martian

It's just odd, since Trendall seemed very confident

I did two posts about you I think. One said

"Lunar Martian seems like town to me"

and the other said

"I had a look at Lunar's ISO and I didn't find anything wrong with them really"

. If you want to interpret that as somebody who is 'very confident' then there's not a lot I can do about that.

You reckon I 'went out of my way' by typing those two sentences?

Like wow I had a town read on somebody

These are all the relevant posts.

@Trendall

Do you stand by your earlier evaluation of the Gamma slot back from this point in D1:

I think this page says either Gamma or Luca is Mafia.

I agree with this post and happy to get either of those players.

Actually not Luca necessarily, it's more that I'm happy to eliminate Gamma.

Okay. Would you like to say why?

Not particularly. Post #312 is the main reason but also just general vibes.

idk what's wrong with post 312 but w/e

Sry I'm trying to do like three things at once so haven't bothered to format this properly but check these two links for like, what I'm talking about here -

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12230155

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12298023

That's me in other games identifying some mafia people

Yeah sounds fair

The above quotes are Lunar Martian attacking Trendall, the only player to scum case Gamma, followed by Trendall's scum case. Lunar is perhaps attempting to use my own FoS on Trendall to hide behind both myself and Luca's reads on Trendall and Bugspray respectively.

[Frogsterking]

My theory is not based on intuition it's based on abductive reasoning, and I came up with it by drawing a graph which I can share. I have one more thing to say about this:

[Frogsterking]

Night Kill Analysis from a Gamma, Lunar, and OutWorldER scum team POV, part one: Amelie was directly targeted for the Night Kill.

Town: Frogsterking, Gamma Emerald, Galron, bugspray
Not confident town: Momrangal
Null: OutWorldER, Lunar Martian, Trendall, AGamblingPig
Scum: Grendel, NoPowerOverMe, Luca Blight

This is a full list with everyone in the game.

This is her reads list about halfway through the ISO. Things look sunny for Gamma here with Amelie.

VOTE: OWER

well, ok. Your alignment should be telling after this

Really dislike this right here.

There’s no reason or analysis behind any of your points.

What happened to Gamma or I being scum?

Why do you prefer a Trendall elim to Bugs? Do you TR Bugs?

I thought either you or Gamma was scum based on the way you both were trying to paint bugspray as scum for really odd reasons. Now I'm thinking you are scum and just latching onto Gamma's strange push.

I don't really know if bugs is Town, but I don't think Trendall is aorn. I still don't understand why people are voting bugs and no one has even attempted to explain it afaict.

Your last line is ironic. I’ve explained my Bugs SR way more than you’ve explained anything this game.

I said I’ve had success reading Bugs as both alignments in the past, and I can see based on their behavior this game, and for the reasons I outlined, that they are clearly scum!Bugs this game. Bugs themselves didn’t challenge my reasoning regarding this, so who are you to imply it isn’t valid?

It seems to me that all your reads have an agenda behind them; you’re not sorting in a natural way.

"I'm not scum. You are!"
My scum read on Luca definitely stands.

Ok, I was just making sure that the claim was bs like I thought it was.

The only people that have an issue with it are those outside the block.

Who are the five people in it?

Me
Galron
Grendal
Frog
Gamma

Frog is still pushing you as scum here, but I do agree. The pushes against you are not only crappy as fuck but they are targeted at the largest voice within the block and someone who, if left alive could win us the game

I’m surprised you don’t think the intensity of the NPOM wagon could be due to the fact that scum have been heavily wagoned themselves. To me it looks like a deliberate counter-wagon.

I quoted the wrong thing. But see the momrangal quote inside. It is really nasty if you ask me.

That is an interesting prospect, but not one I’m sure is worth fully entertaining rn. I myself have a hit-or-miss radar when it comes to wagonomics, but I’ll offer that I feel like I’m starting to hit more than miss these days.

Starting to dislike gamma. Im about to swap Gamma and NoPowerOverMe.

Gamma is the one i think i trust least out of that group. He's challenging to get a read on in general.

I do agree with this currently. I'll be lifting this to a null for a while.

I could see replacing Galron with Amelie if the rest of the bloc is up to it.

Didn't you think I was scum just like one day ago?

Amelie starts to dislike Gamma here, a little over halfway through her ISO, and proceeds to take a dump on the slot for the rest of D1 pretty much, over time putting together a fairly solid scum case against Gamma, for VERY similar things pointed out by Trendall.

Town: Frogsterking, Galron, bugspray, NoPowerOverMe
Null: OutWorldER, Lunar Martian, Trendall, AGamblingPig, Grendel,
Scum: Gamma Emerald, Luca Blight, Momrangal

I'm actually considering lifting Luca Blight because of his interactions with my scum reads being a good look but I'm going to hold off on that for a bit.

Amelie what is your general process for forming reads?

I don't honestly know. I think I'm too new for me to have an established way to sort. I just try to the best of my ability to find scum and that's it.

Frogster why is your ocean test better than rvs and why didn't you link us all the same one and also post your results? NPOM and Galren might be beside one another in this wagon and I'm here to back them up

This is the post that made me gut read bugs as town at the beginning of the game. I believe it appeared town to me because I took his question as an

implication

he was thinking about scum hunting. The rest of his posts since then have looked pretty weak.

At this point I'm the most open to eliminating Lunar. Before the end of D1 I would like to see what can be done about sorting the remaining slots.

Right now I've got
Townbloc:
Gamma, Grendel, Galron, NPOM, myself
Town:
Luca, Amelie, momrangal
Null:
Trendall
Scum:
Lunar and some combination of the last few

I hate your reads a decent amount. There are way too many town reads.

VOTE: lunar martian
Might as well

I hate this vote. You never really scum read Lunar Martian until recently.

Actually I don't think either of these wagons now are any good.

I agree. Both are in my nulls.

I"m good with executing Lunar Martian, especially after that last paranoid post where he though Luca was talking about him. That sounds like a caught (and not paranoid town) maf.

I have a null on Lunar Martian currently and am not really willing to vote them. On top of that this wagon built up way too fast. This is more fitting of the "scum trying hard to form a counterwagon" than NnoPowerOverMe's wagon.

sounds good VOTE: lunar martian
that's l-1

I hate this vote as well. I really dislike this wagon. It built up too fast and out of basically nowhere. I don't support it at all.

567 looks like it's coming from scum!luca who KNOWS that it's going to flip red and is trying to make it look like i'm the one who is actually going to bus

Disagree.

The last pages have been super annoying to read for me. I feel like everyone is being super scummy regarding this new wagon on Lunar.

Spoiler:

wdym site meta WIFOM?
Also Luca’s slow burn to hammering is intriguing.

I don't really see why you say this.
If Luca had immediately hammered, everyone would say its scummy for hammering that fast.
If Luca stalls, everyone says he's stalling and that stalling is scummy.
No matter what Luca does here, he's going to probably look bad assuming that Lunar Martian is town of course.

*@all currently here*

Do you think that Luca is a player that 1v1's town as scum here in this context?

I think most scum hammers more more like a "swoop" then a "slow burn" (as Gamma called it)

He never hammered. He just disappeared is all.

I think of the players active in this engagement Nopower actually looks worse then the rest via him negging Lunar from the sidling's. I dont think its beyond his town game to do something like this as he loves messing with people and giving out lots of witty comebacks as a signiture part of his style. (I wanted to do a trademark symbol over "witty comebacks" but idk how lol)

Gamma looks pretty good in his approtch to all this and i feel he came to a similar conclusion I had come to before I fully came to it.

Luca looks frustrated. I think the question is if its more liekly to come from town or scum. I WANT to say it comes from town but im not sure yet. I need to think more on it. (Hence me asking)

Lunar Im still sorting rn

It would be great if all are town but idk just.

I feel like this is either a huge play style clash or you are scum. I hate nearly every post you post.

the more i think about the more i feel like Luca could have, (as scum), acted really offended and hammer before Gamma came out and unvoted. Like Luca, and Lunar where going back and forth a couple hours. That plenty of time to justify a rage hammer. So this means Luca is probably town here. Good Good.

No. I don't agree and my scum team guess of Luca/Grendel is just solidifying more and more for me.

I think I'd like to go for Trendall or OutWorldER. Failing that, NoPower or Frog.

VOTE: Trendall

I thought your top scum read was Luca Blight?

Amelie calls Gamma out three times in a row

My current solve: Luca Blight, Momrangal, Grendel.

Mysteriously Gamma disappears from this solve, though it's clear she's not a fan of this slot, and has shown a willingness to rethink her position on Luca but not Gamma.

I think Luca and Grendel are both helpful to the scumteam in my theory because Luca is pushing Bugspray and Grendel can be the mark for Gamma. The fact that Amelie is more vocal overall about her position on Grendel and Luca, while calling Gamma out for things that could be potential scum tells, is a sign she could be a "safe" kill for Gamma because unless someone does Night Kill Analysis we will all be more likely to remember her position on Grendel and Luca but not on Gamma.

Amelie's takes bother the crap out of me
Amelie what do you tend to look for when reading people? I asked you a similar question earlier but I don't recall an answer.

You recently said you reviewed my posting and thought me town. Then soon after I moved you to my scum reads and this post followed.
Can you talk to me about how you are thinking?
I did answer the question and if you cannot find it, I can quote it for you later. I have to get to work in a few minutes.

I was just working on a post pointing out how our intuition can manifest itself as anger, and Luca and I have both been triggered by Lunar.

I was about to point out that Amelie and Grendel have both been defending Lunar and arguably gaslighting.

Then I saw your post, and the fact that you're now being triggered by Amelie is a sign to me she needs to be resorted.

I do not understand this thought process at all.

Based on her test and her behavior I believe Amelie is extraordinarily high in this subtrait of openness:

"Liberalism. Psychological liberalism refers to a readiness to challenge authority, convention, and traditional values. In its most extreme form, psychological liberalism can even represent outright hostility toward rules, sympathy for law-breakers, and love of ambiguity, chaos, and disorder. Psychological conservatives prefer the security and stability brought by conformity to tradition. Psychological liberalism and conservatism are not identical to political affiliation, but certainly incline individuals toward certain political parties. Your level of liberalism is $flev[18]. "

http://www.personal.psu.edu/faculty/j/5 ... tions.html

I seem to be thinking this alone wouldn't cause you distaste because you also seem very liberal, Gamma.

I'm looking at the second half of Amelie's questionnaire with a little twinkle in my eye now.

Why the twinkle? I'm quite curious.

I don't think game solving on Day 1 is all that helpful. It's more distracting than anything. Let's get an elimination and a night under our belts and then assess where we're at.

I do quite agree with this but my main reason is just because I don't agree so that's quite unfair of me.

UNVOTE:

Was following this game before replacing in, so that's cool. Maybe I'm weird, but I don't think Lunar is especially likely to be scum. The wagon on them seems to be more motivated by them not getting along well with people here than by them being scummy. I don't see scum so blatantly drawing attention to themselves, especially if they have a nervous personality. I don't like the wagon either. Galron and Bugspray's votes both feel like "well here's a wagon, might as well vote it," and then there's frogster. I don't like how they've been convinced Lunar is scum since Lunar's first post and haven't wavered since, even as they reevaluate every other slot. It all feels like an inertia wagon.

I'm not

completely

sold on Bugspray being scum either, but I like their wagon comp a lot better. I think NPOM and Luca are town. Gamma too, with the caveat that I've read a lot of games he's been in and liked his posting regardless of alignment. OutWorldER is a big ??? because so few posts, but their vote here feels... fine? I kinda like it, but can't find the words to say why. My only doubts are because I get the feeling that the inconsistencies in their thought process and read progression might actually just be their personality.

Why the hell did this post take me like 2 hours to write, what the hell. I don't really have a strong impression on Grendel, Trendall, Mom, or Amélie, and will work on them next time.

@Luca (and anyone else with Bugs meta): Do you think bugs' scummy-looking behavior could be their personality, or am I off base?

@Frogster: Do you want me to do that OCEAN thing? What do you think the odds are that Lunar is town with unusual temperament versus pretty obvious scum? Also, can you walk me through the progression there? It's not super clear where and why they became your most consistent scumread.

Wow, I really am not sure what to make of this post. I'll have to give it some time.

Alright, Im caught up and now I have to get ready for work.

Calls Gamma out for moving his reads list around in a way that could potentially be reactive to Amelie, preparing for her to push against him in the future.

Town: bugspray, Momrangal, ORAM
Null: OutWorldER, Lunar Martian, Trendall, Frogsterking, NoPowerOverMe, Galron
Scum: Gamma Emerald, Luca Blight, Lunar Martian, Grendel

At the end of the day Amelie does include Gamma in her reads list, along with Luca, Lunar (who she says is only there as a compromise, maybe why she included him twice as a null read) and Grendel.

For the reasons I said earlier, Amelie's FoS on Luca and Grendel could be problematic for a Lunar, OutWorldER, and Gamma scum team, because they can use Grendel as a mark for Gamma to win the three-way and use Luca's push against Bugs to survive another mislynch, perhaps even setting Luca up in the process.

The fact that she is also scum reading Gamma and town reads both Momrangal and Bugs, both potential targets for a mis lynch, makes her even more problematic.

Amelie even shows hesitation about her scumread on Grendel and Luca, but not Gamma. EoD she said in response to me she is considering her reads on Grendel to be a potential playstyle clash, and that it's literally "making her hesitate", and she does not say the same about Gamma. I pointed out earlier in this post where she considered lifting Luca because of his interactions with her other scum reads.

I did not include her reads on OutWorldER in this post, but she did not have warm feelings, similar to Lunar.

So she is basically doing the opposite of what a Gamma, Lunar, and OutWorldER scum team would want, she is mixed on both of the obvscum and demonstrates a willingness to compromise lynch at least one of them, she FoSes the deep scum, and FoSes two town players that may be useful to the scum team, but seems as though she may even hammer Gamma over them given the choice. Even more, she is town reading Momrangal and Bugspray,two big targets for a mislynch.

Therefore, from a Gamma, Lunar, and OutWorlder's perspective, Amelie is the perfect target for a night kill because she stands directly in their way and at first-glance her death is more incriminating of Grendel and Luca. It makes far more sense Gamma, Lunar, and OutWorldER would target her over me, since I could be another potential mark for Gamma in the three way, even bussing his partners if he needs to, and my death would obviously incriminate Lunar and OutWorldER and not really further either of their win conditions (winning with the whole scum team alive or winning with Gamma in the three-way.)

[Frogsterking]

Night Kill Analysis from a Gamma, OutWorldER, and Lunar POV part two: Galron was the target as the scum PR read and for his call to investigate OutWorldER EoD 1.

Not as much to say here, OutWorldER sees Galron's call to action for an OutWorldER investigation, someone says they think Galron is the investigator, they send in Galron as the Night Kill. Amelie looks in the hood chat, decides her town reads Momrangal and Bugspray are safe from the Night Kill, and decides to save the PR.

I think the key difference between who the NK target incriminates, is if you believe Amelie protected Galron then it mainly incriminates OutWorldER and any individuals who were in the hood chat D1, and does not really incriminate Lunar or Gamma as the partners. If you believe Amelie was the target of the NK then I believe it's mainly incriminating Gamma and lends credence to this theory as a whole. I think both Galron or Amelie being targeted are equally likely and I want to listen to everyone's opinions on this theory.

[Frogsterking]

Right now I see two competing theories:

1) Luca, OutWorldER and Lunar are town, Bugs is obvscum possibly along with Trendall and there are one or more deep scum.

2) Galron, Trendall and Bugs are town, Lunar and OutWorldER are obvscum and there is one deep scum who in this scenario I propose as Gamma.

[Frogsterking]

@Grendel

: Why do you TR Bugs?

I'm inclined to believe that the neighborhood is all town. I'll explain more when i get i get off work later.

-/-/-/-/-

*@Frogstrking*

Its rare that I see a live chainsaw defense. Im not really suspecting Gamma as scum. Lunar pushing a wagon I was overtly interested in yesterday, (trendell), is interesting tho.

You think that Lunar maybe is trying to hide behind you? Do you remember giving Lunar any signs yesterday you might be willing to cover them?

[Frogsterking]

I'm suspicious of the people who want to get rid of Bugs, who is a conduit to the hood, but not Gamma. It wasn't until recently that Gamma even shared anything from the hood, if I recall correctly.

So you townread Trendall because he hasn't voted Bugs yet?

[Frogsterking]

@Grendel

Do you get any tells from this interaction?

I don’t like calling it a recruit
That sounds like someone picked us out to join the hood, when it was just RNG that enabled that

Really? What's the randomness involved?

I looked through the mini normal archives and the only game that had two backups of the same role was a game that had two backup IC's, but no actual IC, so not really comparable to this game.

There have been four members of the hood in total now, right? It would be highly unusual if they were all Town.

I’m not entirely enthused by this mindset regarding the hood
Imo neighborhoods shouldn’t be used as a PoE subset where someone

has to be

scum in it

And yet it seems likely that someone is. You trying to encourage us not to think so makes me question you. A few Gamma posts recently have really made me question my thinking about Gamma.

I looked through the mini normal archives and the only game that had two backups of the same role was a game that had two backup IC's, but no actual IC, so not really comparable to this game.

There have been four members of the hood in total now, right? It would be highly unusual if they were all Town.

I’m not entirely enthused by this mindset regarding the hood
Imo neighborhoods shouldn’t be used as a PoE subset where someone

has to be

scum in it

And yet it seems likely that someone is. You trying to encourage us not to think so makes me question you. A few Gamma posts recently have really made me question my thinking about Gamma.

[Frogsterking]

@Frog so who do you think is scum?

IDK, I'm probably going to sheep Luca and vote Bugs.

[Frogsterking]

@Frog so who do you think is scum?

IDK, I'm probably going to sheep Luca and vote Bugs.

As long as the execution is within Lunar/Bugs/OutWorldER/Trendall today I think it's a good choice. I'm kind of just spinning my wheels here trying to think of something useful I can do. I guess I will sheep you onto Trendall because he's annoying and doesn't do anything and I'm curious what everyone else will do.

VOTE: Trendall

[Frogsterking]

I'm suspicious of the people who want to get rid of Bugs, who is a conduit to the hood, but not Gamma. It wasn't until recently that Gamma even shared anything from the hood, if I recall correctly.

so why the TR on Trendall then?

[Frogsterking]

the statistics and psychographics will lead us further and faster than our pings.

I guess I will sheep you onto Trendall because he's annoying and doesn't do anything

So it's going well then?

From your perspective it's not because you just talked me into executing you, unless that was your goal, in which case you're doing quite well.

[Frogsterking]

@Bugs Wagon

Can we consolidate wagons onto Trendall today to give the hood chat more time to sort Bugs?

[Frogsterking]

@Trendall @LunarMartian

( No one else allowed )

Right now I see two competing theories:

1) Luca, OutWorldER and Lunar are town, Bugs is obvscum possibly along with Trendall and there are one or more deep scum.

2) Galron, Trendall and Bugs are town, Lunar and OutWorldER are obvscum and there is one deep scum who in this scenario I propose as Gamma.

I don't see how in one possibility one person can be 'obvious' and in another possibility the same person can be town. And 'obvscum possibly' is like...

That's a strange thing to latch onto. Clearly it's two competing and mutually exclusive theories. Why are you trying to discredit Frogster so consistently?

I'm going to explain using Trendall's personality type, which he self-identifies as being "pure neuroticism", and then later specifies further as being low in the anxiety sub facet, both of which seem fairly accurate. Trendall's posts where he self-identifies these traits are in the spoilers below.

Spoiler:

Every time I do an OCEAN test or indeed any psychometric tests I get different results, but it seems that I become more and more well balanced over the years

Extraversion - 56%
Agreeableness - 51%
Conscientiousness - 33%
Openness - 59%
Neuroticism - 57%

In reality I am just 100% neuroticism and nothing else, but they never quite ask the right questions.

VOTE: Bugspray

He did say that he's all-neuroticism in his response to the SSS so maybe he is nervous.

Maybe I just can't be bothered because I find your personality stuff unbearable to read. What would I be 'nervous' about sitting at home on my laptop posting on an online forum? I'm like, somebody who barely ever gets nervous, 'neuroticism' comes in a lot of different forms. But you've completely free associated away from your personality type results there and are just speculating, making wrong assumptions, completely using your own imagination while using the language of the personality tests to try and justify and give credence to the fact that all of these observations about people you're making are complete fantasies you're inventing in your own head which don't map onto reality in any significant way whatsoever. Which you've been doing all game and it's like...I can't tell you how this is just my least favourite thing.

Here is the description of neuroticism from the source I used earlier, http://www.personal.psu.edu/faculty/j/5 ... tions.html :

High Neuroticism

Your score on Neuroticism is high, indicating that you are easily upset, even by what most people consider the normal demands of living. People consider you to be sensitive and emotional.
Neuroticism Facets

Anxiety. The "fight-or-flight" system of the brain of anxious individuals is too easily and too often engaged. Therefore, people who are high in anxiety often feel like something dangerous is about to happen. They may be afraid of specific situations or be just generally fearful. They feel tense, jittery, and nervous. Persons low in Anxiety are generally calm and fearless. Your level of anxiety is $flev[1].
Anger. Persons who score high in Anger feel enraged when things do not go their way. They are sensitive about being treated fairly and feel resentful and bitter when they feel they are being cheated. This scale measures the tendency to feel angry; whether or not the person expresses annoyance and hostility depends on the individual's level on Agreeableness. Low scorers do not get angry often or easily. Your level of anger is $flev[2].
Depression. This scale measures the tendency to feel sad, dejected, and discouraged. High scorers lack energy and have difficult initiating activities. Low scorers tend to be free from these depressive feelings. Your level of depression is $flev[3].
Self-Consciousness. Self-conscious individuals are sensitive about what others think of them. Their concern about rejection and ridicule cause them to feel shy and uncomfortable abound others. They are easily embarrassed and often feel ashamed. Their fears that others will criticize or make fun of them are exaggerated and unrealistic, but their awkwardness and discomfort may make these fears a self-fulfilling prophecy. Low scorers, in contrast, do not suffer from the mistaken impression that everyone is watching and judging them. They do not feel nervous in social situations. Your level or self-consciousness is $flev[4].
Immoderation. Immoderate individuals feel strong cravings and urges that they have difficulty resisting. They tend to be oriented toward short-term pleasures and rewards rather than long- term consequences. Low scorers do not experience strong, irresistible cravings and consequently do not find themselves tempted to overindulge. Your level of immoderation is $flev[5].
Vulnerability. High scorers on Vulnerability experience panic, confusion, and helplessness when under pressure or stress. Low scorers feel more poised, confident, and clear-thinking when stressed. Your level of vulnerability is $flev[6].

So basically by his own definition Trendall feels angry and/or depressed (since he clarified he's not anxious), is hyper sensitive to criticism, feels helpless and confused, and is unable to moderate his impulses. Notice the defensiveness here when you FoSed him:

who is there to defend me? Trendall.

Lol I won't waste my time then. Let's all get this then because there was a fair amount of support for eliminating Lunar yesterday, so we can just like, get it done now.

VOTE: Lunar Martian

What 'changing story'? Like where lmao. And where was I 'confident' in anything and where did I 'go to great effort' or whatever you said to defend you? You are just making stuff up.

I'd wager that these sub facets are working together here anti-synergistically, and that Trendall is lashing out against any threats he perceives by belittling them; and because of his inability to moderate his impulses (in this case the impulse to criticize), he's going too far now and drawing attention to himself, which requires more belittling because of the hyper sensitivity, which then draws more attention etc.

So the question is whether or not his behavior is AI. I think that it is. Take a second look at the second half of Trendall's questionnaire, the part on lying, and notice the evasiveness and qualifying in his answers:

Slating personality tests is really one of those 'world's most non-controversial opinions' things, where you'll get like ten people all agreeing with each other saying 'personality tests are so dumb!', as if each individual one thinks they're this lone minority voice crusading against the hordes of people who love personality tests. Then if you engage with them they'll tell you that people can't be put into boxes.

---

1. When was the first time you played mafia and do you remember if you liked it?

Years ago some of my friends invited me to play on a private message board, and I don't remember the game too well but I discovered this website and got fascinated by the game reading about the different roles and so on.

2. Why are you playing this current game of mafia now?

Cause I normally play the newbie games, but I joined a mini game a while back and found it really fun, so now I'm trying another one.

3. What is your favorite mafia-like game now? (including games like Among Us and Secret Hitler)

Nothing ever beats epicmafia

4. How many people would you say you interact with offline on a typical day?

There is really no such thing as a 'typical day' for me in terms of whom I interact with, but over the past few weeks it's gonna average out at like 3-4 per day.

5. How many people would you say you interact with online on a typical day?

Really wouldn't know

6. How often do you tell stories?

Not sure I understand the question

7. Do you think that lying is ever OK?

No

8. Do you lie more often online than offline?

Presumably offline, I'm not sure what I'd lie about online exactly or why

9. How good are you at lying?

I wouldn't know because it might be that people know that I'm lying to them and are being too polite to tell me. I generally just prefer to tell the truth, so I hardly get to practice. But I don't remember ever being caught in a situation that I couldn't immediately talk my way out of.

10. Would you rather talk to someone in-person or online?

In person, and then if we don't get to see each other in person v often then msg me constantly every day x

Trendall's stance on telling stories is "Not sure I understand the question", he's "not sure what I'd lie about online exactly or why", and he "wouldn't know" how good he is at lying and then qualifies himself.

I don't believe that Trendall doesn't know what a story is or that he's not sure what he'd lie about online, or that he "wouldn't know" if he can lie or not, since he signed up for a game of mafia.

Trendall says next he's been in loads of bands:

Wow thank you for cooperating Trendall, I'm curious if you've ever been part of a death metal band or other band?

Yeah I've been in loads of bands, not death metal though.

Story telling is a KEY ELEMENT OF MANY, MANY SONGS across pretty much any genre, so unless Trendall has been exclusively playing in Beethoven bands, so in addition to his mafia career I'm sure he understands what a story is and has been involved in the creation and telling of them at least somewhat regularly.

This makes it clear to me that Trendall CAN lie and has been making an effort to cover this up since his second post.

[Frogsterking]

@Frog so who do you think is scum?

Trendall.

[Frogsterking]

I sort of disagree with that analysis. I didn't understand the storytelling question either. We all tell stories and use metaphor unless (except some neuro atypical people). Even neuro atypical will recount memories, etc., which is a form of storytelling.

#1 What sort of stories do we tell is more relevant I think.

Questions 7-9 are more interesting. Pretty much everyone admits that noble lies are acceptable, except maybe Kantians. We all put on a persona somewhat when we go online, so it seems odd that he wouldn't know what to lie about. And I feel like everyone knows how good a liar they are, especially if they do sometimes lie. There's a bit of a disconnect between saying he never really lies but then also talking about how friends react to his lies.

To be clear Trendall, I'm not saying nor do I think that you're a bad person.

#2 I feel like this is treading dangerously close to making judgments about your character IRL, and I just want to say that despite talking about you lying, I don't think you're a bad person or anything. I tell plenty of lies. I'm only really talking about any of this in an effort to determine whether you're Mafia in this game.

#1

That's a great point and that would be a much better question.

#2

Same here, I don't think Trendall lies or does anything wrong IRL, and it was not my intention to attack him as a person, it was my intention to show how I believe he happens to be lying and attacking everything I say in this specific game, and there is probably a reason for it (scum flip).

[Frogsterking]

I'm sorry I got carried away there, to make sure it doesn't happen again when applying OCEAN in-game I think I will tone it down and exercise caution when talking about any of the extraversion, agreeableness, and especially neuroticism factors, because those factors can sometimes come with more personal, social, or cultural stigma attached.

[Frogsterking]

I'm suspicious of the people who want to get rid of Bugs, who is a conduit to the hood, but not Gamma. It wasn't until recently that Gamma even shared anything from the hood, if I recall correctly.

One last thing before I work on my chill for a little while, is that Bugs shared info with their ability much earlier, but Gamma did use his ability to help me first chance he got:

@All Did Amelie share any thoughts about night actions from her previous game on this site?

@Bugspray@Gamma Can you gather anything concrete about who she may have targeted last night or if potential scum in the hood chat may have been able to fish out the prs?

I may be able to answer these

Based on hood contents I’d figure Galron was the NK target
And if scum is in there they probably know 1 PR

[Frogsterking]

Yeah I really wish I had the time to discuss what I'm like in real life and how it relates to this mafia game. I'm sorry Frogsterking but the majority of that post isn't terribly accurate (you got the poor impulse control bit correct and that's basically it) and the disingenuous mental gymnastics of your trying to claim that I myself claimed those things about my own personality is like...I just have no idea what the fresh hell I just read to be honest. I'm not really interested in any of your criticisms of me on a personal level, you're presuming that the way that I choose to approach a mafia game is broadly representative of what my entire personality is like in real life, and it just isn't, I'm a character in a mafia game. On epicmafia years back I had different accounts and they all had different personalities like one was always cool and laid back, one was very talkative and frenetic and so on. I have no idea how to explain this and I have no objection to having a big conversation about how this relates to major insecurities I may have about myself or mental health issues I may have been diagnosed with and so on, but this is just a thing with me, I like screwing around with different online personas and one of the many reasons why I love this game is that it's a roleplaying game and I

in theory

should be able to just do that with the underlying understanding between all the players being that when you're in the game and just when you're online generally, you don't go about things the same as you do irl, so nothing in the way of a player being manipulative or critical or anything such as this necessarily reflects onto how they are as a person. To reiterate you're a character in a roleplaying game. When you start to focus too much on people's real life personalities, then it might not even be relevant for reasons such as this. But more importantly, the game basically turns into 'let's eliminate the person with the worst personality, who can win by attacking who's character the hardest?' which...I mean to be perfectly honest I'd probably prefer that as a game, but we signed up for a game of mafia so I don't think the real life stuff is useful.

This is the first post I’ve seen that makes me question the value of the personality stuff
I think the OCEAN test was legit, but the questionnaire seems like it might have been a crock of shit
Frogster I have to ask, why was Trendall the one you singled out among the responses?

I think his constant passive-aggression finally got to me, so I started tunneling on him, and I do genuinely think his responses to the second half are more suspicious, so it stuck out to me while I was reviewing his iso.

My goal with the questionnaire is to be built from the ground up which means I'm serious about incorporating suggestions like LunarMartian's "What KIND of stories do you tell?"

I don't believe I'm personally good at coming up with questions, I just think the idea has potential, and my end goal was to create a thread somewhere with a link to a good version of the OCEAN, the questionnaire (incorporating feedback from many players), and some statistics I've run on the questions like an ANOVA. So players would have the option to use it in games that I'm not even a part of compared to an RVS or an RQS.

Some ideas I have for the questionnaire are to include Y/N questions and Likert Scale questions because they're easy to analyze statistically. Another idea I have is for these short-response type questions based on some research I did this morning; have some more questions that are less relevant to the specific game as a control or a benchmark, and then have more questions that are relevant to the specific game, apparently among people who are both not used to lying and don't answer the control questions qualitatively (showing they're just being analytical in general) then the liars will become much more analytical when answering the relevant questions rather than the irrelevant questions. The best part is that theories like this can actually be tested now without being a genius or rich, using Python to do an anova between factors like sentiment analysis, alignment, OCEAN, and word count.

[Frogsterking]

I'm gonna take a step back for a day or two, wait for Grendel's explanation and for Bugs to contribute before I do my reassessment.

The three Gs seem pretty townie to me.

Also don't mind Frogster, he didn't mean anything by it and also isn't as good at reading people as he thinks. It's only a game with strange internet people. We don't know anything.

This is true, I'm not a licensed psychologist or anything, I've def gotten a lot of feedback on my ideas and taken my information from ones that are, but I myself am not, and I make more mistakes than a lot of professionals would, and am being experimental with this approach.

Despite everything else, I still feel pretty confident for other reasons that Trendall is Mafia, and Gamma's post there as well as a few others recently suggest that we are on the right track and Mafia is trying to organize to shift momentum.

In actuality I wasn’t looking too favorably on Trendall up until that post, but it caused a spark to change my mind and I’m thinking maybe Frogster is up to something.
VOTE: Frogsterking
I’m not too sure about this but it can’t hurt to kick up some dirt, eh?

This could just be a reaction to my earlier theory about Gamma being deep scum (which could be a reaction coming from both alignments), but I'm more inclined to view this as a town tell I think? I think kicking up dirt here is townie, and the change of vote a couple posts later looks more like a townie to me rather than someone who is burdened with TMI.

I also had just came across Frogs case against Gamma, it needs over night marination but I can see sense in that stance.



In regards to trendall vs OWER, It would be a weird bussing position to take when I had clear suspicions on both slots.

At that point in time, the only reason I can think of for trendall scum jumping on after me is he either knew OWER to be scum with him and maybe clearing him on that bus

Or

To set up mislynches.

OWER wasnt getting off and there were other easier mislynches to be had. It's just overall weird

Yes the things going on with the slots within the PoE are very strange and making me hesitate. It's pretty clear to me that the scum in this game are more than capable of throwing town tells when needed. On self-reflection I see OutWorldER's rage being more likely motivated by a brushed-off townie than a scum.

That doesn’t change that nothing about that tone seemed polite or respectful. I still think you were shading him.

Again given what Frogsterking wrote about me and tried to do there, Lunar was just trying to reassure me more than anything else, and any disrespect or impoliteness towards Frogsterking is absolutely deserved at this point. It makes no sense for Gamma to have an issue with Lunar 'not being polite or respectful', but no issue with Frogsterking for the same reason. Although Frogster's post was again, just a personal attack disguised as like a 'scientific rational analysis' of me under the guise of trying to figure out whether I'm mafia or not, so I guess Gamma just fell for that.

It's definitely your actions and whether or not those actions are motivated by alignment that I want to bring to the table. It's true I was annoyed with you when I wrote it so my big post was more negative and poorly directed than I want it to be now that I'm calmer, and I'm sorry for that.

[Frogsterking]

As like, some feedback, if the question were 'How do you tell stories?' I would have been able to work with that a lot better and would say something like 'I'm terrible with the details and I'll jump back and forth between different bits and forget things, so for me it's like I care less about the details of the story and it's more about like being engaging emotionally, being theatrical, making people laugh, not being boring and so on'.

I think "How do you tell stories?" and "What kind of stories do you tell?" from you and LM respectively sound like great questions.

[Frogsterking]

..It must have been pretty frustrating for the scum team when an entire town block was formed on page like 5, and then eventually sixth member Luca was proposed, and all six of these players were actually town. Then, one of the few town players in opposition to the town block, Amelie, ended up eating the kill instead of your obvious pr NK target. I'm not going to mis hammer on Lunar or OutWorldER anymore so if you three are over it, there's no shame in surrendering, I don't see any win condition for you.

[Frogsterking]

Lmao wow. I'm not mafia.

It's okay, I don't think there is any way for you guys to win anymore, I already have a guilty on Bugs and I'm investigating Momrangal tonight, I think you should just surrender if that's a possibility.

[Frogsterking]

Game is over good job town, thank you for helping me straighten out my reads Luca, and good meta call on Bugs.

[Frogsterking]

..It must have been pretty frustrating for the scum team when an entire town block was formed on page like 5, and then eventually sixth member Luca was proposed, and all six of these players were actually town. Then, one of the few town players in opposition to the town block, Amelie, ended up eating the kill instead of your obvious pr NK target. I'm not going to mis hammer on Lunar or OutWorldER anymore so if you three are over it, there's no shame in surrendering, I don't see any win condition for you.

Lmao wow. I'm not mafia.

It's okay, I don't think there is any way for you guys to win anymore, I already have a guilty on Bugs and I'm investigating Momrangal tonight, I think you should just surrender if that's a possibility.

Game is over good job town, thank you for helping me straighten out my reads Luca, and good meta call on Bugs.

Like I said no shame in surrendering, setup seems too townsided for whatever power the scum team got, town formed a massive town block early on, and you guys got screwed over by the N1 kill inadvertently hitting your main chance of turning town against the town block.

@Gamma @Luca @Galron @NPOM @Grendel @Lunar @OutWorldER

We're splitting our votes between three scum right now, can we speed this up a little bit and choose one? OutWorldER is on Bugs right now and he's V/LA and doesn't come on as much so we can switch to Bugs, IDK if Gamma, Grendel and I all switch now we can get a hammer tonight, or we can go on Momrangal first since Trendall hasn't taken his vote off yet, maybe that way will be faster.

[Frogsterking]

I think I want to hear more about this guilty you have

I found that as the psychologist bugs is capable of performing kills. I think the breadcrumb is self explanatory lol.

why do you wait so long to bring it up?

I hold reports to fish for reactions it's in my meta:

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12121204

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Bugspray

[Frogsterking]

There's a parallel universe somewhere where Frogsterking drew doctor in this game and we all had to fill out a health questionnaire at the start.

"Trendall's blood pressure is high. Mafia are more likely to have high blood pressure because they're nervous about..."

LMAO

Fuck it, let's go for it.

VOTE: bugspray

yeah I'd be a false positive since I just have anxiety irl

Gamma do you think Trendall is just going along with it or I made a mistake about Lunar/OutWorldER being mis hammers?

[Frogsterking]

Sorry, I'm not following a wagon that Trendall initiates.

Bugsprays reaction to being guiltied is literally to ask why it took me so long to bring it up...not like protest or anything...

Lmao wow. I'm not mafia.

It's okay, I don't think there is any way for you guys to win anymore, I already have a guilty on Bugs and I'm investigating Momrangal tonight, I think you should just surrender if that's a possibility.

why do you wait so long to bring it up?

[Frogsterking]

Game is over good job town, thank you for helping me straighten out my reads Luca, and good meta call on Bugs.

Sorry i wasnt more help today. I kept waiting to see what direction Momrangual was going so i could form reads accordingly, and i wasnt super focuased on other things lol

Lol. Do you think Trendall is the last one or Lunar?

[Frogsterking]

but yeah, this looks really close to an auto-win. If last scum is trendel or lunar they should just concede.

-/-/-/--

pre-edit

Trendel over Lunar I guess?

Yeah I think so, because I'm pretty sure the Normal version of the psychologist can get a guilty on players who are sending in the night kill, as long as they did not send in the previous one.

I thought this reaction looked pretty bad for Trendall:

Lmao wow. I'm not mafia.

But when he joined in I wasn't sure if he was just having fun and going along with it or it was Lunar after all.

[Frogsterking]

I think we can wait to speculate on you and any town PRs until we know what the scum power have and confirm it's auto win (like one way of balancing three investigative could be to run a 3 scum 1 traitor setup).

[Frogsterking]

As long as we chop off Mom/Bugs/Trendall I'm not concerned about the order, and I think Mom should go first for voting against the townblock.

VOTE: Momrangal

For the record I want to point out that Bug's reaction here is damning :

Lmao wow. I'm not mafia.

It's okay, I don't think there is any way for you guys to win anymore, I already have a guilty on Bugs and I'm investigating Momrangal tonight, I think you should just surrender if that's a possibility.

why do you wait so long to bring it up?

[Frogsterking]

I think we can wait to speculate on you and any town PRs until we know what the scum power have and confirm it's auto win (like one way of balancing three investigative could be to run a 3 scum 1 traitor setup).

should we coordinate our targets tonight?

It depends on how bad you think Bugs and Trendall's reactions were.. I suggest checking on Lunar as well and my response to Lunar in 1231 ..

[Frogsterking]

Where was Bugs guiltied?

I suggest checking my response to Lunar in 1231 .. to help understand the context. This is the guilty and Bug's and Trendall's reaction to the guilty:

..It must have been pretty frustrating for the scum team when an entire town block was formed on page like 5, and then eventually sixth member Luca was proposed, and all six of these players were actually town. Then, one of the few town players in opposition to the town block, Amelie, ended up eating the kill instead of your obvious pr NK target. I'm not going to mis hammer on Lunar or OutWorldER anymore so if you three are over it, there's no shame in surrendering, I don't see any win condition for you.

Lmao wow. I'm not mafia.

It's okay, I don't think there is any way for you guys to win anymore, I already have a guilty on Bugs and I'm investigating Momrangal tonight, I think you should just surrender if that's a possibility.

Lmao wow. I'm not mafia.

why do you wait so long to bring it up?

[Frogsterking]

I'd like to visit Trendel.

Bugs was already guilted right?

I will check Lunar then, because they were fairly suspected, maybe they did not send in the night kill yet in case of tracker.

[Frogsterking]

Mommrangual scum clears Outworlder as town as that was her most aggressive push. Outworlder push was there to save Scum!bugs from a flip. IDK what other's reasons. She also had some movement towards gamma when she got cuaght up today, meanwhile was looking past some reads she had on plays at EoD. Which could def be a pivot away from having to risk flipping bugs/lunar/trendall today. I'd say Trendel definitely looks worse via associates b/c despite being in Momrang's PoE pool most of D1 she always seemed to prioritize other slots.

bugs and Mommrangual D1 interactions did look pretty bad. But I had a silly pet theory about the neighborhood b/c i didnt realize that the back ups were picked via rng. I thought that the Mod being a more "Mindgamey" character would have this large hood all town to screw with peoples heads. XD

Lucia looks more town now that i consider how hard he was bussing meanwhile Momrangul was trying to shift the D1 Bugs wagon elsewhere. Seems like a clash that a team who are fimilar with each other are less likely to have. Its not impossible, but its definitely unlikely.

I think this read of Momrangal and analysis of her actions is very cool and looks like real detective work based on deductive reasoning.

My read on Momrangal was based on pinging hard while reading her intro post the first time for tactical followed by repeated major pings of this moderately deepscum player from another game.

I'm trying hard to be able to read the way you do because I'm always relying on meta or intuition and neither are always available.

[Frogsterking]

I think Trendall is probably just Town tbh.

I’m less sure about Lunar now. Lunar/Bugs was a team I had on D1, it’s possible they would then go on to try and distance.

I've felt too many times now that Lunar or Trendall are surely scum to make much sense between the two. I'm hoping that taking a break and reading through the associatives between Bugs and Momrangal will help, or failing that any of the PRs will get a report.

[Frogsterking]

Since we're doing a mass claim type deal I'm not really the psychologist, I was keeping the claim out there in the hopes of encouraging the scum team to give up and slip "because the setup is too townsided" and possibly eat the Night Kill. I saw that Momrangal, Trendall, and Bugs were all posting in the thread at the same time, and they were my current game solve, so I threw it out there as a fake claim to get reactions. Bugs had just said in their last post they were sleepy and playing catch up, so I thought they might be more inclined to believe the fake claim than not.

I figured Bugs reaction at least is a slam dunk for scum:

Lmao wow. I'm not mafia.

It's okay, I don't think there is any way for you guys to win anymore, I already have a guilty on Bugs and I'm investigating Momrangal tonight, I think you should just surrender if that's a possibility.

why do you wait so long to bring it up?

Like imagine the police have a sudden breakthrough in a murder case resulting in a surprising new suspect, and the police show up to the suspect's door to arrest them and the suspect greets them at the door like "Why do you wait so long to bring it up?"

I breadcrumbed my intent to fake claim psychologist in my response to Lunar in 1231 . I saw that players I scum read were sort of posting in the evening and players I town read were coming on later at night, so my idea was to throw the reaction test out in the evening and then try to soft to my town reads what was going on when they came on later, and dissuade anyone from revealing too much based on my claim if necessary, which you can see me doing here:

Spoiler:

I think we can wait to speculate on you and any town PRs until we know what the scum power have and confirm it's auto win (like one way of balancing three investigative could be to run a 3 scum 1 traitor setup).

Where was Bugs guiltied?

I suggest checking my response to Lunar in 1231 .. to help understand the context. This is the guilty and Bug's and Trendall's reaction to the guilty:

..It must have been pretty frustrating for the scum team when an entire town block was formed on page like 5, and then eventually sixth member Luca was proposed, and all six of these players were actually town. Then, one of the few town players in opposition to the town block, Amelie, ended up eating the kill instead of your obvious pr NK target. I'm not going to mis hammer on Lunar or OutWorldER anymore so if you three are over it, there's no shame in surrendering, I don't see any win condition for you.

Lmao wow. I'm not mafia.

It's okay, I don't think there is any way for you guys to win anymore, I already have a guilty on Bugs and I'm investigating Momrangal tonight, I think you should just surrender if that's a possibility.

Lmao wow. I'm not mafia.

why do you wait so long to bring it up?

I think we can wait to speculate on you and any town PRs until we know what the scum power have and confirm it's auto win (like one way of balancing three investigative could be to run a 3 scum 1 traitor setup).

should we coordinate our targets tonight?

It depends on how bad you think Bugs and Trendall's reactions were.. I suggest checking on Lunar as well and my response to Lunar in 1231 ..

I'm sure Bugs has been very solvey in the hood as it was probably their attempt to pocket the hood, knowing everyone else in there is town. I don't think Bugs throwing dirt at Galron is necessarily a town tell as in the main thread Grendel and Luca both mentioned some suspicion. I think Lunar is working the Trendall angle, Momrangal is working the Gamma angle, and Bugs is trying to work the Galron angle, all because one or more town players have mentioned a little bit of suspicion. Now Lunar is trying to double down on the Gamma angle with Momrangal, but I'll get to my scum cases for Momrangal and Lunar in my next post.

[Frogsterking]

W/e I don't think it will matter as long as you don't fall for whatever BS Bugs spun in the hood or Lunar's attempts to pocket and discredit us over the last few pages. I'm still writing my scum cases on Momrangal and Lunar.

You're also being dogmatic, by the way.

https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... erchief%29

#10, the first section, is about mislynches based off fake claiming.

[Frogsterking]

Based on what Galron said I think Lunar is most definitely scum and my initial reaction to Lunar's scum case on Trendall was correct, Lunar is scum and Trendall is town and Lunar is just trying to work their way out of the PoE. I'm also curious if Bugspray was genuinely attempting to scum hunt by questioning Galron or if Bugspray was just fishing around for PR reads.

Lunar

In the spoilers below you can see how Lunar is both attempting to push and pocket Trendall, and both discredit and pocket me at the same time, like they don't care as long as it helps them survive a little longer. You can also see Lunar appealing to both Trendall and I, as though Lunar knows we're both town and is trying to get us on their side, but also wants to leave us open to push, especially Trendall, who Lunar views as an easier target. You can see this happening below:

Spoiler:

That post doesn’t read as nice, it reads as condescending. “Strange internet people”? That sort of rhetoric serves no purpose than to aggress others. Why are the people strange to you??? And saying “his reads aren’t that great” is not a good look when he also suspects you.
VOTE: Lunar Martian
Nah fuck this. When I break it down that post is loaded with blatant discrediting.

I am one of those strange internet people. What are you talking about? Frogsters reads are probably OK, I just mean his psychoanalysis.

That doesn’t change that nothing about that tone seemed polite or respectful. I still think you were shading him.

OK. You're wrong. I was just saying something to cheer Trendall up a bit, it had nothing to do with the game. It really wasn't much of a dig at Frogster either.

That post doesn’t read as nice, it reads as condescending. “Strange internet people”? That sort of rhetoric serves no purpose than to aggress others. Why are the people strange to you??? And saying “his reads aren’t that great” is not a good look when he also suspects you.
VOTE: Lunar Martian
Nah fuck this. When I break it down that post is loaded with blatant discrediting.

I am one of those strange internet people. What are you talking about? Frogsters reads are probably OK, I just mean his psychoanalysis.

Also don't mind Frogster, he didn't mean anything by it and also isn't as good at reading people as he thinks. It's only a game with strange internet people. We don't know anything.

Okay if I change my vote again it’s going to this, this looks awful

Yeah being nice to people is really awful, how dare I.

I feel like every time Gamma posts I become more convinced that he's posting with some agenda rather than because he's trying to solve the game.

"Well then why are you voting for me then?! TRENDALL SLIPPED!"

were you lining up for roughly something like that to be your next post? be honest

No, if you re-evaluate now you can always unvote if you decide you think I'm town. I take that response to mean you do think it's more likely that I'm town though. People change their minds all the time.

I'm more confident in Trendall than in bugs, but if no one else is going to vote bugs today I'll switch. Could I ask everyone to give me a reason they don't want to vote Trendall though?

Frogster, I thought you were going to rethink and not just tunnel me anymore.

If you look at the shift in game state following my claim, which took the game state from "IDK who is town time to reassess" to "setup is townsided and there are multiple guilties" (which was followed up by Grendel's guilty by the time Lunar came on), and compare Lunar and Trendall's reactions, Trendall's reaction is like "yee-haw let's get 'em!!!" and Lunar's is like "I won't go down without a fight!!!"


You can see the difference in the spoilers below:

Lunar's reaction to the guilties (Lunar barely acknowledges them and keeps fighting a mute point to keep Gamma under contention):

Spoiler:

All the roles are created during the game creation process approved by the game reviewers and assigned randomly as far as I know.

So the notion that two people were randomly added to the neighborhood is wrong. They seemed to imply that the randomness made them more likely Town and a few people bought that.

I think all the Mafia are within Mom, Trendall, bugs, and Gamma. I guess I'll vote either person we have a guilty on today and tomorrow, and then I have a preference for Trendall over Gamma the following day.

Question though: how would a tracker have a guilty? Especially if Amelie wasn't the intended kill? Or was Amelie targeted by Mom?

Mommrangual scum clears Outworlder as town as that was her most aggressive push. Outworlder push was there to save Scum!bugs from a flip. IDK what other's reasons. She also had some movement towards gamma when she got cuaght up today, meanwhile was looking past some reads she had on plays at EoD. Which could def be a pivot away from having to risk flipping bugs/lunar/trendall today. I'd say Trendel definitely looks worse via associates b/c despite being in Momrang's PoE pool most of D1 she always seemed to prioritize other slots.

bugs and Mommrangual D1 interactions did look pretty bad. But I had a silly pet theory about the neighborhood b/c i didnt realize that the back ups were picked via rng. I thought that the Mod being a more "Mindgamey" character would have this large hood all town to screw with peoples heads. XD

Lucia looks more town now that i consider how hard he was bussing meanwhile Momrangul was trying to shift the D1 Bugs wagon elsewhere. Seems like a clash that a team who are fimilar with each other are less likely to have. Its not impossible, but its definitely unlikely.

Roles were assigned randomly to people, but I think each role was created and then assigned. Its not like roles were assigned and then a few people were randomly given backup neighbor. That's why the RNG thing is misleading and I don't trust Gamma for saying that. It's a really strange argument that doesn't make sense based on my understanding of the way games are created and approved. It's true that roles were given out randomly, but the alignment of each role is not random. The only random aspect is who has the role. Right?

Trendall (seems a lot more townie, reacts to the shift in game state then becomes excited):

Spoiler:

Lmao wow. I'm not mafia.

It's okay, I don't think there is any way for you guys to win anymore, I already have a guilty on Bugs and I'm investigating Momrangal tonight, I think you should just surrender if that's a possibility.

It's just so embarrassing to read this when I know you're not correct aaaaa

Looks like the neighbourhood ain't happy about that claim.

Fuck it, let's go for it.

VOTE: bugspray

_____________________________________

Momrangal

I think Momrangal's claim of motion detector is true, except she is a scum motion detector, and that is part of the power scum got. It makes sense she would investigate OutWorldER as a potential pr, and use her claim now as an attempt to pocket him. (ie OutWorldER: "That's right!! I really DIDN'T visit anyone!")

Momrangal builds off of Lunar's push against the town block and hood (specifically Gamma) without acknowledging Lunar, and instead acknowledges my out-there theory involving Gamma night killing Amelie and a mutual chainsaw defense between Gamma and Lunar (without really bringing up Lunar) :

Spoiler:

VOTE: gamma

I think here may be where I want to venture into the most .

I'm still wrapping my mind around the double chain saw, but I do think that, if Gamma is scum, then Bugs and Lunar are assuredly town. The more I think about it, the more I'm bothered by the fact that he was and is so non-chalant about there being two backup neighbors and dismissing the fact that one of them could be scum

I also had just came across Frogs case against Gamma, it needs over night marination but I can see sense in that stance.



In regards to trendall vs OWER, It would be a weird bussing position to take when I had clear suspicions on both slots.

At that point in time, the only reason I can think of for trendall scum jumping on after me is he either knew OWER to be scum with him and maybe clearing him on that bus

Or

To set up mislynches.

OWER wasnt getting off and there were other easier mislynches to be had. It's just overall weird

Momrangal displays some ideas here indicating she's thought about the night kill from the scum perspective already:

Spoiler:

@Momrangal Do you believe Amelie was the target of the night kill or ate the bullet for someone else?

Amelie was town af but she had a temperament that scum could use. She was pretty town, but it didn't seem like she could gather clout this game, nor did she really have the skills to get people to follow her.

Imo, multiple people were obvtown D1 and two of have potential to become town leaders going forward.

Similar to what I pointed out about Lunar's vagueness during the opening stage, it seems like on Momrangal's return from V/la she hasn't really slipped into character yet, and there is a vagueness to her ideas which she's attempting to cover by posting a lot of aphorisms and fluff and repeating what I've said (which furthers the scum team agenda against Gamma) :

Spoiler:

@mom - why would you vote someone who you thought was town?

I'm a lonely old woman

The question you should be asking is why everyone seemed to have missed that

Prodded

Told mod via PM I'm V/la.

Don't know what is going on

How much longer until your v/la is over? I was wanting to hear your thoughts on the gamestate today.

In particular your thoughts on Trendel, OutWorlder, Luca, and also thoughts surrounding EoD1.

Now, gonna take awhile to catch up but I agree with your haunch. There are bigger town fish to fry unless all the big fish are scum and I feel like a big fish so....

I don't see the progression here. One of the people pushing NPOM was Momrangal herself, who gave absolutely no reasoning at all for her vote. Also, one of these 'crappy' pushes against NPOM came from Bugs, who Momrangal seemingly doesn't want to suspect or pressurize.

Y'know

You totally missed the fact that I voted NPOM when I beleived NPOM to be town

GAIZE I BACK

I want to point out that both Momrangal and Bugs hopped on the ORAM wagon, and this was how Momrangal did:

Spoiler:

VOTE: ORAM

L-2

What's the count on ORAM

The last thing I want to point out was that Momrangal took advantage of the opportunity to pocket both Amelie and I at the same moment, which was very successful for her, at least until Amelie ate the night kill. This is when she pocketed both of us and when Amelie and I both decided to town read her:

Spoiler:

You recently said you reviewed my posting and thought me town. Then soon after I moved you to my scum reads and this post followed.
Can you talk to me about how you are thinking?

That isn’t an accurate representation of the timeline
I feel like it’s hard to parse out what factors into your reads so they come across as baseless and random

Amelie is a bit disorganized but, she posts stream of thought posts in the attempt or organize and communicate her thoughts and ideas which I maintain is difficult for newer scum to do. It looks like to me that her mind is moving much faster than she is able to get down on paper and it does show that she is trying to solve a puzzle vs trying to manipulate the situation to make it look like she is solving a puzzle.

Town: bugspray, Momrangal, ORAM
Null: OutWorldER, Lunar Martian, Trendall, Frogsterking, NoPowerOverMe, Galron
Scum: Gamma Emerald, Luca Blight, Lunar Martian, Grendel

Well it looks like you're both in your early 20s so scratch that theory out.

Replace chronological age with mafia age. There is an unnatural amount if irration and useage of energy trying to keep up with the newer generation of mafia

Including an irritation at you for dropping amelie down to null- maybe scum

I'd say you're allergic to me lol. If you can think of a reason every single post a player makes is scummy then you're trying very hard to make the player in question look scummy in your mind.

If this is where it stands then im not sure if theres much point in me engaging you this game.

You asked about why I said "if you're both town then chill out" w/regards to the Lunar Vs Luca thing. Its a means of discouraging self-destructive town tendencies, its a net neutral as far as telling scum it i think? "if you're both town" just appeals to a player's better nature in general. I use the phrase pretty regularly in most games i play.

The bolded is what I find unsettling in this post. My Grendel scum read is definitely still there.

That interesting b/c the whole "keeping up with the game, and summarizing whats happening" is a crutch i leaned in hard on when i was inexperienced scum. Players are less liekly to turn on you when you say mostly uncontroversial things as a newer player in site meta. I will have to read AGambling Pigs posts agian as I dont recall them v well.

They had only 5 posts so I'm not sure it really meant much.

"Quick lets flip this inactive slot before we get a replacement!" Froggking looking really town if AGB slot turns out to be mafia.

This is a super bad way to describe this and makes Frogsterking look particularly bad if ORAM ever flips town. I dislike ORAM's posts but I dislike the way you are approaching them even more.

Not really sure about the idea of flipping ORAM today since its so low info tho.

This feels like you want it to happen later so Frogsterking can die right after.

I think Grendel is right to point out that ER has been inactive since pressure started to build on them. The pressure consequently dissipated, and they have remained inactive except a quick comment after being prodded.

Who is "ER"?

Lunar standing in the face of death and actively tempting Luca to hammer runs contrary to how survivalistic most scum are. It would be safer in that situation to just go ahead and (fake)claim and hope for the best as scum. Lunar actively spiting on that notion and aggressing the players active in that point of time is pretty inline with town behavior.

in short i think Lunar is more likely town then scum.

I get where you’re coming from, but I could also see that behavior coming from scum who know their time is up/are getting bussed.

I do think Bugs is the more likely scum of the two, and my recent meta-dive reinforces this belief.

I feel like if Bugspray was scum, they could just claim something really powerful and they'd be safe for the rest of this game. What they claimed doesn't match that description.

I'm willing to hammer Lunar, ORAM, and bugs today in that order of preference. I'd be pretty stunned if there isn't at least one scum in this group and not very stunned at all if there are three.

Nulls I have are Trendall and OutworldER.

I townread everyone else. If one of my townreads is wrong my first pick would be Amelie as a proxy read off Gamma's intuition and my second pick would be NPOM because of his profile. There is also a weak associative tell I pointed out between the ORAM slot and Momrangal.

I think I'm going to drop Frogsterking to a scum read. It feels to me like he is looking for the easy pushes.

I feel like this is either a huge play style clash or you are scum. I hate nearly every post you post.

Curious why frogster didn’t address this when bringing up that point about emotion before
Btw I think part of the problem with your posts Amelie is you put your thoughts behind the spoiler= tag so it’s harder to engage with.

If I did not put them in spoilers, people might complain about their length.

@NPOM and the other anti-s: still this personality stuff is bullshit?

I did not read that entire block of text. If Frogsterking can summarize it and make it shorter, I am willing to read it.

You recently said you reviewed my posting and thought me town. Then soon after I moved you to my scum reads and this post followed.
Can you talk to me about how you are thinking?

That isn’t an accurate representation of the timeline
I feel like it’s hard to parse out what factors into your reads so they come across as baseless and random

Amelie is a bit disorganized but, she posts stream of thought posts in the attempt or organize and communicate her thoughts and ideas which I maintain is difficult for newer scum to do. It looks like to me that her mind is moving much faster than she is able to get down on paper and it does show that she is trying to solve a puzzle vs trying to manipulate the situation to make it look like she is solving a puzzle.

I don't think scum defends me here and this is a very accusation representation of my play. I am very overwhelmed by the amount posted and am always catching up again and again. Momrangal moved back up to a townread.

yeah that kinda seems to be the case imo as well
your breakdown of me v. Amelie and grednel v. Amelie really made that click I think. It also covered my question towards you before of you you weren't factoring in Amelie's own distaste for Grendel, fwiw

I thought you just called Frogsterkings personality tests bullshit.

VOTE: bugspray

I'm not entirely confident on this but I'm going with the consensus

This is the worst vote on bugspray so far. Im dropping this to null.

For now, since the deadline is coming up and no one particularly agrees with my reads, I will compromise and

VOTE: Lunar Martian

[Frogsterking]

I'm sure it's fascinating. Like you ppl are talking about the game as if it's solved mechanically, and I can't be bothered to look into what the arguments are so I'm just assuming that this is the case and that I've won this as I'm town. Makes no difference what I do at this point.

I think it depends on what you think of Bugs reaction to my fake guilty:

Lmao wow. I'm not mafia.

It's okay, I don't think there is any way for you guys to win anymore, I already have a guilty on Bugs and I'm investigating Momrangal tonight, I think you should just surrender if that's a possibility.

why do you wait so long to bring it up?

If you take Bugs reaction as a confession then I suspect the game is either mechanically solved or very close to it.

[Frogsterking]

I've also played thousands of games on EM and had similar experiences, and my takeaway was slightly different than yours, my takeaway was to never trust AtE and that if you play enough games you'll see every kind of reaction, but some reactions are really unlikely compared to others. I'd classify a real-time response to a guilty "why did it take you so long to out?" with 0 follow up as a confession, and that the player believed they'd been caught, and their main concern was that I wasted their time while they were pretending to town tell. If you're running a game with a player list there that is actually solid then I would expect to get the majority of the town behind me on that point and the remaining players to be likely scum, though even the scum might choose to bus at that point.

I agree with the point that reaction tests are usually bad and if you ran that same scenario like 500 times you'd eventually get a player who would react that way, so I don't think it's impossible that Bugs is town, it just seems EXTREMELY unlikely. Part of the reason I thought a reaction test would be useful is because I knew you, Bugs, and maybe Mom were reading the thread at that point and reaction tests are not in meta here so it would be more unexpected.

[Frogsterking]

I think that with me, because I've played thousands of games of this on epicmafia and see these sorts of arguments about how a person reacted all the time, it's like, I've seen it all. Like a person says something which is totally inconceivable in their position, and you eliminate them and they turn out to be town. Or someone reacts in a way that is just like, too good for it to be mafia or too inconceivable given the player's playstyle or whatever, and then bam they turn out to be mafia. And the amount of times that sorta thing happens racks up over a load of games, and then at that point it seems unwise to give too much credence to arguments about 'reactions', as they've proven to be unreliable a lot of times.

I've also played thousands of games on EM and had similar experiences, and my takeaway was slightly different than yours, my takeaway was to never trust AtE and that if you play enough games you'll see every kind of reaction, but some reactions are really unlikely compared to others. I'd classify a real-time response to a guilty "why did it take you so long to out?" with 0 follow up as a confession, and that the player believed they'd been caught, and their main concern was that I wasted their time while they were pretending to town tell. If you're running a game with a player list there that is actually solid then I would expect to get the majority of the town behind me on that point and the remaining players to be likely scum, though even the scum might choose to bus at that point.

I agree with the point that reaction tests are usually bad and if you ran that same scenario like 500 times you'd eventually get a player who would react that way, so I don't think it's impossible that Bugs is town, it just seems EXTREMELY unlikely. Part of the reason I thought a reaction test would be useful is because I knew you, Bugs, and maybe Mom were reading the thread at that point and reaction tests are not in meta here so it would be more unexpected.

On the topic of EM and reaction tests I want to add that I've spent somewhere between like, four to six thousand HOURS across different accounts playing EM since I was in high school, my #1 fav setup is Basic Variant with the godfather and two millers, and I'm worth several times more as a scum hunter on EM than I am here.