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Post Post #105 (isolation #0) » Fri Dec 18, 2020 4:08 pm

Post by Grendel »

Going off the roster I know Gamma, NoPower, and Galron. I think I played with bug spray at some point?

Anyways, I look forward to spending the upcoming weeks playing with you all.

Ill be reading the thread later tonight!
but why?

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Post Post #118 (isolation #1) » Fri Dec 18, 2020 8:38 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 9, Frogsterking wrote:Hey guys I'm working on a better game start than RVS, my working title is "Standard Survey Start" or SSS. Let me know if you want try it. Everyone has to know what their OCEAN profile is.
DO you normally try to find more eccentric ways to open your games?

How likely do you think you are to get decent reads from what you are doing?

-/-/-/-/-

O 85%
C 17%
E 40%
A 87.5%
N 87.5%

When was the first time you played mafia and do you remember if you liked it?
First game was back 2015, it stressed me out, but somehow i grew more invloved with mafia over time. I guess I enjoyed it. Otherwise i wouldnt be here today.

2. Why are you playing this current game of mafia now?
For fun.

3. What is your favorite mafia-like game now? (including games like Among Us and Secret Hitler)
I dont like most other HRPGs. I like long form games more so then short term games.

4. How many people would you say you interact with offline on a typical day?
I work in retail, so quite a few.

5. How many people would you say you interact with online on a typical day?
Depends. Somedays just a couple. Other days it can be a dozen or so.

6. How often do you tell stories?
I like telling stories in situations where I think they will be entertaining for others.

7. Do you think that lying is ever OK?
Yes, i think there are moments where lying can be for the greater good.

8. Do you lie more often online than offline?
Probably? But its usally more due to carelessness then intentionally being deceitful

9. How good are you at lying?
Better then the average person I reckon.

10. Would you rather talk to someone in-person or online?
online, because it involves less required attention in most cases.
but why?

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Post Post #119 (isolation #2) » Fri Dec 18, 2020 8:54 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 55, Frogsterking wrote:VOTE: LunarMartian

Right now my main scum reads are LunarMartian and NoPowerOverMe.

Between these two I find LunarMartian the most sketch.

Everyone else I read as town so far.
No power scum due to Lunar MArtian voting him in an informed looking manner?

Your back and forth w/ No power imo clearly demonstrates that he is acting in character, not really doing anyhting A.i.

I do think in a vaccum that scum are most likely to crap on an opener like yours if it seems unpopular with the rest of the roster. However i think beyond the pool of a few players, most were game to play along. Which might dissuade scum from trying to push (I know you said it wasnt RQS, but im gonna call it that for the sake cpnveince) your RQS as scummy.

-/-/-/-/-

OutWorlder looks like he could be scum for making a passing non-contributive commet about taking personality tests. At least more scummy then those actully voting Frogsetr
but why?

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Post Post #120 (isolation #3) » Fri Dec 18, 2020 8:57 pm

Post by Grendel »

*@Froggester*

You have meta on Bug Spray? or are you making assumptions on how they approach this situation as scum based on what they personality seems to be?
but why?

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Post Post #121 (isolation #4) » Fri Dec 18, 2020 9:07 pm

Post by Grendel »

Froggester reminds me of when i was much more eccentric and motivated as a player several years ago. I liked doing this kinda early game phscyo-analisis stuff as town. Unfortunately, outside of a few niche tells I dont think i saw much success with it. Granted, Im not that great a player. Maybe Froggser knows whats up.

I guess im leaning town on Frongking since he seems to really beiveile hes doing whats right for town. I cant say hard yes tho
-/-/-/-/-

IM surprized how quickly Gamma took Froggester in with oopen arms since Gamma has tmk more experince using RQS as scum then using it as town. I feel like he'd be more wary of what Frgking was doing. :/
but why?

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Post Post #122 (isolation #5) » Fri Dec 18, 2020 9:11 pm

Post by Grendel »

Trendell looking bad. All posts are about RQS, or are not game related.

Looks like snugg scum sliding by in the early game
but why?

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Post Post #123 (isolation #6) » Fri Dec 18, 2020 9:28 pm

Post by Grendel »

Mongeral, Luca, and Ameile aslo fall into the same boat of sliding through early game as Trendal. Thier only content being about RQS. They obviously cant all be scum, but i would be surprized if it contained nothing but town.

-/-/-/-

Galroen looks ok, he can be town.

Lunar Martian is non-ai RVS and nothing else.

-/-/-/-/-
In post 106, NoPowerOverMe wrote:I always get confused between Galron and Grendel
We both joined this game just to confuse you with our similar sounding names. It was allllll part of the plan!
but why?

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Post Post #124 (isolation #7) » Fri Dec 18, 2020 9:36 pm

Post by Grendel »

I like the idea of forming a town core, but i feel its too early to form one I'd personally be sadisfied with. I think Galreon is my top TR and thats like.... gut mostly.

VOTE: Trendell

Im happy to vote anybody whose only content so far is there RQS answers
but why?

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Post Post #125 (isolation #8) » Fri Dec 18, 2020 9:42 pm

Post by Grendel »

I have the day off tomarrow so i should be able to check in pretty regularly. This seems to be a pretty thoughtful, laid back, roster composition, so i should enjoy this game quite a bit. GN :)
but why?

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Post Post #126 (isolation #9) » Fri Dec 18, 2020 9:56 pm

Post by Grendel »

Whoops i thought i was going to bed lol
In post 98, Galron wrote:NPOM is making sense. That should probably ping me, but it seems okay.
this gives me town vibes. Paranoia is generally townie
In post 100, Galron wrote:
In post 16, Gamma Emerald wrote:By the way I think for Day 1 I want to try to townblock and have a group of voices I trust to bounce ideas off of
I'm not getting anything out of the personality testing. I think we should go back to this.
Pro-active townie reaction to what he feels isnt great early game strat. Has no motivation as scum to disrupt Frossterking's thought process outside of niche situations were Frogking was correctly onto one or more scum. Situations i find not more liekly then random atm. Lastly I think he as scum would greatly prefer to aggress Frogking dierctly in favor of diverting activity inthread elsewhere.
but why?

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Post Post #129 (isolation #10) » Sat Dec 19, 2020 7:52 am

Post by Grendel »

RE: Lunar's vote on NoPOwer, I dont necessarily think that its it comes from an informed perspective. I was restating what i believed you were saying. it just looks like an RVS vote to me.

NO Power I think thrives mostly on one-on-one confrontation and isnt very vocal about reads outside of the players hes actively clashing with. He might have some reads outside of this that he hasnt felt inclined to share.

THank you for clarifying on your BugSpray read.
but why?

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Post Post #130 (isolation #11) » Sat Dec 19, 2020 8:00 am

Post by Grendel »

In post 127, Gamma Emerald wrote:
In post 121, Grendel wrote:Froggester reminds me of when i was much more eccentric and motivated as a player several years ago. I liked doing this kinda early game phscyo-analisis stuff as town. Unfortunately, outside of a few niche tells I dont think i saw much success with it. Granted, Im not that great a player. Maybe Froggser knows whats up.

I guess im leaning town on Frongking since he seems to really beiveile hes doing whats right for town. I cant say hard yes tho
-/-/-/-/-

IM surprized how quickly Gamma took Froggester in with oopen arms since Gamma has tmk more experince using RQS as scum then using it as town. I feel like he'd be more wary of what Frgking was doing. :/
Frogster seemed to be trying to do it like you seem to do it, so I had a good vibe from it. In addition the RQS being more frequent from scum!me is really just dumb luck, most of the time I have the idea to do it well before I get my role PM iirc. I have actually suppressed myself doing it in some games where I rolled scum because some people just call RQS a full on scumtell so I want to spite the haters.
I guess I gave you the ammunition's required in the same post I quoted to answer my question to you. :lol:
but why?

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Post Post #131 (isolation #12) » Sat Dec 19, 2020 8:12 am

Post by Grendel »

@ALL


If we're going to form an early game town bloc then i think it would be beneficial for everybody who hasnt done so to submit thier top town reads. So that we can have a better consensus.

I know i like Galreon for mine, and probably Frogking. I'd like to get a couple more over the course of the next several days.
but why?

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Post Post #156 (isolation #13) » Sat Dec 19, 2020 6:14 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 136, Trendall wrote:
In post 134, Amélie wrote:I am very intrigued by this player as I have never seen someone approach a game of mafia in this way.
I can tell you now that it's not a very good approach.
But what do you think No Power's alignment is?
but why?

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Post Post #157 (isolation #14) » Sat Dec 19, 2020 6:23 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 139, Amélie wrote:Currently I am thinking that a possible scum team could look something like NoPowerOverMe/Galron/Grendel.
This is solely based on their interactions and assuming that one is scum and trying to connect the dots after that. I am not confident but I'd like to say this for future reference for myself.
What interactions have us 3 had that point to use being scum together FYPOV?

-/-/-/-/-

*@Frogking*
Spoiler:
In post 141, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 10, Gamma Emerald wrote:I’m curious to see what that is
How does it differ from RQS?
In post 61, Gamma Emerald wrote:
In post 42, Frogsterking wrote:Instead of being random the questions are based on things that will give us information for the rest of the game. My ideas are just theories but I can link to actual evidence to support my inclusions of these questions.
This is like, the real point of doing RQS outside of being an RVS substitute
So like, in essence I don’t feel like your thing differs from RQS in anything but name.
It will be different from RQS because I will keep the questions and the process the same as I can and collect metrics on the results. Then I can do a multivariate analysis on player behavior in-game with an OCEAN-based psychographic and see if anything more causal and clear can be found. There's another example of something similar I already found that did multivariate analysis between linguistics and alignment to see if a player's syntax changes. The information from my new idea with the SSS will be useful even after it's released because most players won't read it all the way through. If anything clear is found it will be useful even if you're playing in a game without the SSS because you can probably roughly figure out the other players OCEANS anyway. So unlike RQS it would be useful to anyone who knows about it even if they're not in a game with it, and also would have some additional advantages to taking this approach in-game if players decided to use it. If players decided they wanted to use it there would be a thread with very clear instructions explaining the steps of the SSS and it would be kept as brief and engaging as possible.


Have you ever talked to Mastina about ideal roles in group discussion?

I have a feeling the two of you would like to exchange mafia theory around the subject.

-/-/-/-
In post 149, Luca Blight wrote:You’re misquoting him a bit there, though. He said he wouldn’t be satisfied with it right now as it’s so early, but he likes the idea of it and stated his own top TR, so I don’t think it’s questionable to then push ahead towards the possibility of a townbloc.

I’m busy on weekends so I’ll get further into this game from Tomorrow.
Ill hold you too that. :P
but why?

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Post Post #158 (isolation #15) » Sat Dec 19, 2020 6:26 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 152, OutWorldER wrote:i generally think town blocs are an EoD/mid-late game thing and I don't like to people attempting to form them super early in the day because it leaves a lot of room for error and when done wrong it gives scum good ability to warlock the game

it's part of why I generally don't form a lot of TR's early in the game

regardless I did misread Grendel there so

UNVOTE:

mostly just biding my time at the moment, don't have a super good place to park my vote.
Consider consolidating onto an existing wagon to help propel the game state forward.

Thats what i do if i dont have any serous reads.
but why?

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Post Post #159 (isolation #16) » Sat Dec 19, 2020 6:38 pm

Post by Grendel »

*@No Power*


You said you're familiar with OutWorlder's scum game, Are you also familiar with their town game? and do you think enough has happened that you can out a read there?

-/-/-/-

*@Trendal*


Im voting you. What are your thoughts on that? Also, who do you suspect right now?
but why?

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Post Post #167 (isolation #17) » Sat Dec 19, 2020 7:19 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 160, Galron wrote:
In post 137, Amélie wrote:
In post 98, Galron wrote:NPOM is making sense. That should probably ping me, but it seems okay.
I don't quite understand where this is coming from.
This is the first npom game we've had where I haven't wanted to meet him by this point.
how many games have you played with him?

this is my 2nd game with the both of you.
but why?

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Post Post #169 (isolation #18) » Sat Dec 19, 2020 7:32 pm

Post by Grendel »

Although I understand why some players dislike some of your mannerisms I personally think you're fine to play with.

THanks for answering my question w/ regards to Outworlder.

-/-/-/-

I think that having competing wagons on Trendel and Amelie would be rad cool.
but why?

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Post Post #200 (isolation #19) » Sun Dec 20, 2020 8:20 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 172, Frogsterking wrote:I just did a couple quick read-throughs and I saw that momrangal pointed out there is high neuroticism in the group as well so there will be more needless abstraction and self-consciousness.

Everyone that is posting actively looks pretty town to me aside from NoPowerOverMe. I saw that momrangal pointed out NoPowerOverMe's behavior is likely NAI because it's motivated by his disagreeableness, and I agree, the reason I suspect him more than the others is that I believe he will play the same way as scum, whereas the other active posters are less likely to be approaching the game in this way simply because they don't have the experience lying because outside of mafia and they're not really motivated to practice lying or get very many opportunities to practice it because they aren't extraverted or disagreeable. Obviously they could still be very good at lying in general or have practiced it for this specific purpose (lying in a mini-normal on mafiascum) it's just less likely when you think about what motivated their behavior in the past leading up to this game, so for that reason I FoS NoPowerOverMe alone in the active posters.

Players that don't have the desire or the experience to practice lying are going to need to construct some sort of persona for themselves, lie low for much of the game, or replace out. The persona they create is going to need to gel with people that are open, agreeable, and neurotic.

The conclusion of my conjecture is that at least 2/3 of the scum are in the low-activity pool or mid-activity pool already, and in the case that one scum is in the high-activity pool that scum is NoPowerOverMe because his temperament gives him more motivation and opportunity to practice lying in his day to day life, so it makes more sense he would elect to adopt this same approach rolling scum in this game.
I feel like you are opperating under the assumption that there has to be at least one scum actively participating in thread. I understand how/why you think that but im critical of the approtch here becuase its basically forming mutally exclusive relationships based off inthread activity levels, which is not something i've seen be necessarily true. At least not quantifiably.

Have you had much success doing this before?
but why?

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Post Post #201 (isolation #20) » Sun Dec 20, 2020 8:35 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 179, Trendall wrote:
In post 159, Grendel wrote:Im voting you. What are your thoughts on that?
It was only a vote to do with activity levels so it didn't interest me very much.
Thats not exactly all to it tho. I think thus far you haven't done anything meaningful content wise. Activity isn't the same thing as Content.
In post 186, Trendall wrote:
In post 184, Frogsterking wrote:; and you believe when dealing with incomplete information we're forced to rely on intuition or abductive reasoning because there is no other alternative.
I don't believe this at all. I believe that this is going to be a very long game.
What is the best way to push the game state forward from your pov atm? Is it something you can do on your own?
In post 199, Trendall wrote:I swear I don't understand like half the words people are saying this game.
What words do you want definitions for?

Lastly, if Bug Spray is just a RVS vote then consider joining one of the forming wagons.
but why?

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Post Post #202 (isolation #21) » Sun Dec 20, 2020 8:57 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 190, Momrangal wrote:
In post 123, Grendel wrote:Mongeral, Luca, and Ameile aslo fall into the same boat of sliding through early game as Trendal. Thier only content being about RQS.
Then why are you picking on just trendel?

Also, what else are you expecting? The RQS suggested by frog was a breath of fresh air but at this point the game was open for less than 24 hours. There are two potential leads out of the random stage at this point. This was your only moment to get a string of posts out, with your only post being "I will post later tonight" so...
Becuase they were the first person i noticed in that pool of players. In fact i would have most likely consolidated onto Ameile if my Trendel vote maintained its status as a vanity.

I may have been over eager since i have had some experience using RQS in the past. i typically find scum more likely to lurk after submitting responses to the questions until somebody else gets the game out of the "random" phase. Usally because they both dont know how to move out of that stage naturally, and dont have the motivation to try. I reckon if i did it over agian i'd wait another 24~48 hours to see if things pick up more. Tho based on content so far it seems that the "only answered Frogkings queastions then dipped" group have still yet to make a developmental posts that look town to me.
but why?

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Post Post #203 (isolation #22) » Sun Dec 20, 2020 9:02 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 195, NoPowerOverMe wrote:I'm not okay with yeeting Frog.

I think his logic is faulty but I don't see it coming from a scum perspective. I could see his process becoming more pro town as more information is available.
In post 196, Momrangal wrote:Not sure I could see scum defending his biggest scumreader in that nature, especially when he disagrees with the inherent nature of it
I do agree with this
but why?

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Post Post #205 (isolation #23) » Sun Dec 20, 2020 9:09 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 191, Galron wrote:
In post 177, Frogsterking wrote:The assumptions I'm running on are that 3/3 scum are all in the low activity end, because they aren't sure how to lie yet and are reacting to their own lies
Scum have no need to lie early game in general.

Low activity posters reacting to their own lies? If they're not posting they're not lying.

Your implication that the low activity posters are inexperienced at scum is dreadfully faulty and supported by nothing.

Your assumptions and early posting are vapid attempts at intellectual prowess that seemed to be designed to mislead. I think you're likely scum.
I usally dont see scum publicly taking over the conversation in this manner. When i do its usually somebody already known for being bossy/possessive on meta. I dont know if the latter is true in Frogkings place due this being my first game with him.
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Post Post #206 (isolation #24) » Sun Dec 20, 2020 9:18 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 204, Luca Blight wrote:VOTE: Amélie

This is my strongest suspicion at the moment.

don't really add much to the situation.

is another example of saying something without really saying anything. It's the kind of thing I could see scum saying just for content's sake. I also agree with Gamma's in response to this.

I completely disagree with her reads here, and it generally seems a lazy attempt at a solve to link all the supposed 'townbloc' as being the scum team.
For curiosities sake i would also like to hear what you think of Trendal, and Mommrangal. :)

-/-/-/-/-

Its gotten late on my end. Seeya tomarrow

I'm looking forward to bug Spray, and hopefully gambling pigs catch up.
but why?

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Post Post #248 (isolation #25) » Mon Dec 21, 2020 7:53 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 207, Gamma Emerald wrote:
In post 202, Grendel wrote:. i typically find scum more likely to lurk after submitting responses to the questions until somebody else gets the game out of the "random" phase. Usally because they both dont know how to move out of that stage naturally, and dont have the motivation to try.
I think this is a good evaluation of the idea behind it, at least for the short term “reading people directly off of responses” tactic

Btw about the activity read discussion, I think any scumteam worth their salt would have someone trying to get their foot in the door if the {Gamma, Grendel, Galron, NPOM, frogster} set is all-town
Amelie’s attack on the block kinda feels that way.
In post 240, Gamma Emerald wrote:I think Amelie’s recent effort seems decent.
VOTE: bugspray
Let’s whack some weeds, shall we?
Im inclined to agree with the first post after seeing her more recent posts. not sure why you are seeing her as decent (town?) currently.
but why?

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Post Post #249 (isolation #26) » Mon Dec 21, 2020 8:01 pm

Post by Grendel »

I've clearly explained that was more then just pushing "low activity" slots, im not sure if Amélie is missing that reasoning, or is ignoring it.

*@amelie*

You are ESL right? do you rely on translation software, or are you pretty fluent on your own?

Not asking it to be rude or anything. I've played with folks before who relied heavily on translation software before, and sometimes that caused us to talk over each other's heads.
but why?

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Post Post #250 (isolation #27) » Mon Dec 21, 2020 8:07 pm

Post by Grendel »

I've kinda ignored Bug's Pray becuase I figured a Town!Frogking could sort that slot. I'd say that Im fine with that slot being flipped, but theres a lot of slots i feel that way about, which is concerning.
but why?

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Post Post #252 (isolation #28) » Mon Dec 21, 2020 8:20 pm

Post by Grendel »

Luca Blight posts look good on the surface but I dont feel comfortable trying to phase his alignemnt thus far. I guess he's null, and I will keep an eye on him.

-/-/-/-/-/-

Pre-edit

If you have had success reading Bugs Pray previously is it possible that they might be wary of you as scum?

Are they normally iffy activity wise? I only play a portion of a game with them previously and i recall them not saying much.
but why?

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Post Post #262 (isolation #29) » Tue Dec 22, 2020 8:06 am

Post by Grendel »

In post 255, Lunar Martian wrote:
In post 250, Grendel wrote:I've kinda ignored Bug's Pray becuase I figured a Town!Frogking could sort that slot. I'd say that Im fine with that slot being flipped, but theres a lot of slots i feel that way about, which is concerning.
I think this post most likely comes from Mafia justifying a willingness to kill anyone over Town being unsure.
Its not uncommon for me to give up on finding scum D1 and just be willing to vote anybody not in my TR's as the day goes on. D1 has its uses, but its the hardest day for finding scum. Knowing that can be demotivating. :/

what are some of your other reads so far?
but why?

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Post Post #263 (isolation #30) » Tue Dec 22, 2020 8:12 am

Post by Grendel »

In post 260, OutWorldER wrote:really damn slow game, not sure to attribute that to holidays or other reasons. It feels somewhat weird to me because Frogster definitely tried to establish themselves as a town leader figure and yet the game-state has stalled out with no actual pushes or wagons being decided upon. I'm starting to feel better about Frogster because of that since if he were scum I'd think he'd be propped up more by his team and his votes sheeped.
I guess it could be roster composition + holidays?

a lot of the players on the roster strike me as having lower then average posting rates in other games. Though I haven't done the resrech to back this theory up.
but why?

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Post Post #344 (isolation #31) » Wed Dec 23, 2020 3:59 pm

Post by Grendel »

*@gamma*

Isnt Trendel an older player then us? Wheres this stuff about them being newer coming from?
but why?

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Post Post #352 (isolation #32) » Wed Dec 23, 2020 8:56 pm

Post by Grendel »

Im beginning to come to the similar conclusion about Amelie as bug's Pray, and Luca has. She just seems like an inexperienced, but aggressive, player in general. I usally see that in new town moreso then new scum. I feel comfortable saying she is more likely town then random.

In the moment it seemed like she was spearheading the heck out of the town bloc that was forming. Thinking about it, she would make that play as both alignments since she obviously doesn't trust me, and/or NoPower. Tho i guess she trusts Nopower now.

-/-/-/-/-

Bugs isnt doing a lot for me right now. Im pretty content to sheep there.

Like most compelling thing i can say is that its weird for scum to openly spec on unannounced neighbors/masons.

I also dont really understand the formation of his town read on me. Feels like they are trying to fake a soul read or something. :/

-/-/-/-/-

TOWN

Galron
Frogsterking
NoPowerOverMe

Amélie

Gamma Emerald
Luca Blight
Momrangal
-----(okay flipping any of these guys)------
AGamblingPig
Lunar Martian

bugspray
OutWorldER
Trendall
SCUM


From Gamma to Lunar Martian I'd classify as all being null reads. the distinction is that I think that Gamma, Luca, and Momrangal are providing information that will make sorting them easier down the line. Whereas Pig, and Lunar, have yet to do anything Ai, or provide content i could revaluate later.

I cant say i hard scum read anybody in my scum pile. Its more a "these are the least Town looking" players on the roster.
but why?

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Post Post #354 (isolation #33) » Wed Dec 23, 2020 9:10 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 306, Amélie wrote:Town: Frogsterking, Gamma Emerald, Galron, bugspray
Not confident town: Momrangal
Null: OutWorldER, Lunar Martian, Trendall, AGamblingPig
Scum: Grendel, NoPowerOverMe, Luca Blight

This is a full list with everyone in the game.
This list is really contrary to what/where popular opinion is.

If im alive in the mid to late game and all the "null" reads in her list end up being town then Im gonna grant Amelie conf!town status. It'd be bonkers for a scum!Amelie to keep all the town players under the most pressure as just null reads, and hone in on players whole are more town read in general. This is more a note to myself for later. It can be dismissed if there is scum in her null reads.

-/-/-/-/-

Pre-edit

Ahhh, im sorry. I didnt mean to fudge your pronouns Bug Spray. :(
but why?

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Post Post #356 (isolation #34) » Wed Dec 23, 2020 9:21 pm

Post by Grendel »

Ameile had a bad experience in her newbie where she played like this and it got her flipped early in the game.

I'd think that she'd reconsidered her approach if she rolled scum this game?

Whereas town she'd not care so much about playing in a way thats confrontational if she thinks it'll help her slove the game
but why?

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Post Post #358 (isolation #35) » Wed Dec 23, 2020 9:25 pm

Post by Grendel »

I mean i get that there are "shellyRCs" out there that are 100% ready to play assertively despite relative newness to the scene, (shes not exactly new anymore). But not many new players feel comfortable doing that as scum.

pre-edit, i agree with that. Amilie is the one you want to convince lol
but why?

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Post Post #426 (isolation #36) » Fri Dec 25, 2020 9:59 am

Post by Grendel »

In post 423, Frogsterking wrote:I think a D1 cross between NPOM and LunarMartian and Trendall looks pretty nice right now.
What are your current thoughts on Bugspray?

If you favor Lunarmartian over Bugspray then you probably need to sell that.

-/-/-/-

I Really dont understand the Nopower wagon.
but why?

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Post Post #427 (isolation #37) » Fri Dec 25, 2020 10:06 am

Post by Grendel »

I do think having three competitive wagons going into EoD is really useful. I'd also really like to get a player into claiming territory before we reach the final 72 hours of this day phase. THat way we have time to analyze claims, and theres not a mad rush to CFD onto a new wagon if the first person to claim has a confirmable town power role.
but why?

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Post Post #430 (isolation #38) » Fri Dec 25, 2020 10:23 am

Post by Grendel »

yeah 3 days and 18 hours should be plenty of time to do that.

@Galeron & Lunar Martian


Consider repurposing your votes for one of the wagons with 2+ votes please

-/-/-/-/-

@No Power


I agree that your wagon isnt clean, but i dont think the whole team would have all been on you over the course of the day. At least one, maybe two, would've hung back. I think Amilie is ambitious town, and one or two scum in (BugSpray/Lunar/OutWorlder) are taking advantage of that. I think im leaning just one right now since I dont think scum usally vote together.
but why?

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Post Post #434 (isolation #39) » Fri Dec 25, 2020 10:41 am

Post by Grendel »

@Lunar


what's your current read of NoPower?
but why?

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Post Post #440 (isolation #40) » Fri Dec 25, 2020 5:24 pm

Post by Grendel »

Lunar is struggling a great deal at conveying thoughts in a way that indicates they is genuinely trying to solve the game.

Im not sure if this is AI just yet, but it certinly makes them harder to read in the time being.
but why?

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Post Post #483 (isolation #41) » Sat Dec 26, 2020 5:36 pm

Post by Grendel »

hmmm... i was definitely considering the idea of Lunar just being nervous newer town that cant put words together under pressure. However revisiting his posts now i just feel like it very easliy comes from new scum that cant explain their pushes inthread. wheather is because the underlying motives are scummy, or if they cant fake content to blend in.

-/-/-/-

Bug Spray i've cooled on a bit. Mostly because their paranoia of Scum!Luca is something I've been feeling more throughout the day as well. Also usally dont see scum make such a passive diversion when they are already getting heavily scrutinized.

-/-/-/-/-

Trendel is still probably my strongest gut scum read, but i dont have to energy to really make anything happen there. It bothers me that Trendel has done net little today and yet their wagon never went past 2 votes tmk. I think claiming "this wagon has no traction therefore scum" is an overrated sentiment that i've been trying to move away from lately, but thats sorta how I feel about Trendel. :/

Also, Outerworld is scum lean still I guess. Im not sure about joining a wagon with Trendel/Momrangel tho.
but why?

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Post Post #486 (isolation #42) » Sat Dec 26, 2020 5:41 pm

Post by Grendel »

*thinking face*

VOTE: Lunar Martian

-/-/-/-/-/-

Pre-edit--- Im less concerned about how Bug's Pray adderessing thier own wagon then I am about Bug's thoughts on other players. I feel like I only see a few developed reads from them, and idk what else is going on in their brain.
but why?

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Post Post #487 (isolation #43) » Sat Dec 26, 2020 5:56 pm

Post by Grendel »

@BugSpray


Would a heroic
Town!Bugspray
let a poor vulnerable town be eaten alive by bugs?!

Image

I want to hear your thoughts on more players BugSpray. Help me out?
but why?

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Post Post #488 (isolation #44) » Sat Dec 26, 2020 5:59 pm

Post by Grendel »

@NoPower


Requoting this incase you missed it. Im curious who you think it is as well.
In post 475, Luca Blight wrote:
In post 444, NoPowerOverMe wrote:If I were a betting person my guess would be 4 out of 5 are town.
I’m just curious, who in the townbloc do you think is most likely to be scum?
but why?

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Post Post #492 (isolation #45) » Sat Dec 26, 2020 6:15 pm

Post by Grendel »

What is making me paranoid of Luca personally is that I feel that he's playing very similarly to how i approach games normally (going so far as to also reinforce some things i find to be optimal play). It almost feels like its a long term effort to buddy me, or perhaps incriminate me if he were to flip later?

It is bit left field, and maybe even egocentric. But its certainly a thing i do feel.

-/-/-/-/-

Pre-edit Ahh, I see. Thanks No Power.

I think hes town tho :(
but why?

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Post Post #493 (isolation #46) » Sat Dec 26, 2020 6:17 pm

Post by Grendel »

Gamma is the one i think i trust least out of that group. He's challenging to get a read on in general.
but why?

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Post Post #496 (isolation #47) » Sat Dec 26, 2020 6:23 pm

Post by Grendel »

Gamma is a player i probably have the longest experience with. But my attempts to meta/gut read him have been pretty bad over the years.

Amelie i do think i TR about as much as Galreon atm
but why?

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Post Post #584 (isolation #48) » Mon Dec 28, 2020 2:32 pm

Post by Grendel »

Lunar should claim.

Lunar should not be flipped w/o them claiming first. Only situation they should be flipped w/o a cliam is if they claim stall until there isnt time to rally a new wagon. We still have enough time to do that atm.
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Post Post #592 (isolation #49) » Mon Dec 28, 2020 5:03 pm

Post by Grendel »

I forgot AGP is in this roster tbh :0
but why?

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Post Post #593 (isolation #50) » Mon Dec 28, 2020 5:15 pm

Post by Grendel »

@lunarMartian


Can i get a binary reads list, (ei just names, dont worry about explanations right away), for the whole roster?

Im sorry you are not enjoying yourself. If you want to talk to me I'll be up several more hours EST time, and Ill try to keep an eye on the thread in between other things.

I stand by the play to make if you have a confirmable town pr, (Innocent child, a killing role, day ablity,etc) is to just out it now. That way we'll have more time to hunt real scum before EoD. But thats your MO I guess.
but why?

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Post Post #596 (isolation #51) » Mon Dec 28, 2020 5:37 pm

Post by Grendel »

Spoiler:
In post 460, Lunar Martian wrote:
In post 437, Luca Blight wrote:There’s no reason or analysis behind any of your points.

What happened to Gamma or I being scum?

Why do you prefer a Trendall elim to Bugs? Do you TR Bugs?
I thought either you or Gamma was scum based on the way you both were trying to paint bugspray as scum for really odd reasons. Now I'm thinking you are scum and just latching onto Gamma's strange push.

I don't really know if bugs is Town, but I don't think Trendall is aorn. I still don't understand why people are voting bugs and no one has even attempted to explain it afaict.
In post 399, Lunar Martian wrote:I think Amelie is town. I really have no idea about bugspray, their posts are hard for me to parse. I'm willing to vote there potentially, but don't see a strong reason to atm.

VOTE: OutWorldER
In post 436, Lunar Martian wrote:
In post 434, Grendel wrote:
@Lunar


what's your current read of NoPower?
I don't trust the "Townblock". I think there's probably at least one Mafia in there. Everyone is pushing this narrative that Mafia wants NoPower dead, and I don't see that. But I don't suspect NoPower much beyond that. I don't understand the bugspray votes either, but could join on Trendall maybe?

I mostly think Town is way off-base and Mafia is sitting and laughing at us.
In post 255, Lunar Martian wrote:
In post 250, Grendel wrote:I've kinda ignored Bug's Pray becuase I figured a Town!Frogking could sort that slot. I'd say that Im fine with that slot being flipped, but theres a lot of slots i feel that way about, which is concerning.
I think this post most likely comes from Mafia justifying a willingness to kill anyone over Town being unsure.
In post 529, Lunar Martian wrote:My aims are finding the Mafia. OWER is a fine vote. I think Luca is better. There's plenty of time. I don't like that you're trying to blatantly manipulate my vote into being on one of the popular trains.


-/-/-/-

LM PoV:

Town: Amelie
Null: Bugs Spray, No Power, Trendell
????: Gamma, FroggesterKing, Galreon, Momrangel, AgamblingPig
Mafia: Luca, Grendel, OWER

^is the above where you are at?

Can you break down your reads I placed in the "???" category?
but why?

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Post Post #607 (isolation #52) » Mon Dec 28, 2020 5:46 pm

Post by Grendel »

Thank you. Can you tell me more about your Gamma TR.

Like how you came to it.

-/-/-/-

Pre-edit, this was @Lunar
but why?

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Post Post #618 (isolation #53) » Mon Dec 28, 2020 5:57 pm

Post by Grendel »

I dont this this 1v1 between Lunar and Luca is heppful for ethier party. If both of you are town then maybe chill out for a minute.

-/-/-/--/

Lunar did you see the question I asked you about Gamma?
but why?

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Post Post #636 (isolation #54) » Mon Dec 28, 2020 6:07 pm

Post by Grendel »

UNVOTE:

Im willing to take flack if Lunar ends up flipping scum. I am wary of a world where Lunar is a rude town PR given his abrasiveness to claiming.

I'll probably revote once i do some thinking.
but why?

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Post Post #638 (isolation #55) » Mon Dec 28, 2020 6:10 pm

Post by Grendel »

*@all currently here*

Do you think that Luca is a player that 1v1's town as scum here in this context?

I think most scum hammers more more like a "swoop" then a "slow burn" (as Gamma called it)
but why?

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Post Post #642 (isolation #56) » Mon Dec 28, 2020 6:13 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 635, Lunar Martian wrote:
In post 634, NoPowerOverMe wrote:
In post 630, Lunar Martian wrote:
In post 619, NoPowerOverMe wrote:Lunas lack of town hunting is pinging me big time.
I realize they aren't all Mafia. But why is it an issue that I don't have exactly the right number of people pinged as Mafia on Day 1?
It's an issue that your more interested in discrediting your wagon than finding town or scum.
Well my hand has been forced. People are attacking me, so everyone is talking about whether I'm Mafia. I don't see how I can really be expected to talk about why other people are Mafia when every post I make one person or another pops up to say I'm ignoring a question. You're being very slimy right now.
Dont worry about denfending yourself for the time being. Just talk about about other players on the roster.

Do you think NoPower being "slimy" as you put it, is AI choice on his part?
but why?

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Post Post #646 (isolation #57) » Mon Dec 28, 2020 6:18 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 624, Lunar Martian wrote:
In post 618, Grendel wrote:I dont this this 1v1 between Lunar and Luca is heppful for ethier party. If both of you are town then maybe chill out for a minute.

-/-/-/--/

Lunar did you see the question I asked you about Gamma?
I think the way Gamma approached me and moving votes was probably genuine. It seems like Gamma came under fire for their actions and responded in ways that were genuine. The movement seems to come from trying to solve the game rather than trying to blend in.
I was suspecting your reasoning to be tied more to to commet you made about "one of Luca/Gamma are scum this page". but these look like decently thought out reasons as well.

In a world where Town!Luca is tunneling you where would you look for scum next?
but why?

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Post Post #659 (isolation #58) » Mon Dec 28, 2020 6:26 pm

Post by Grendel »

I get you're tilted by Lunar's behavoir, Luca. Maybe call it a night and come back tomarrow when you're refreshed.

RN if you're both town I think this 1v1 is just wasting space inthread.
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Post Post #662 (isolation #59) » Mon Dec 28, 2020 6:29 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 658, Lunar Martian wrote:
In post 656, NoPowerOverMe wrote:I don't like that you won't stop talking about yourself.
I don't like that you won't stop talking about me.
How about we talk about someone else for a while?
Yes! lol lets do this!

Defense is weaker than information gathering
but why?

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Post Post #666 (isolation #60) » Mon Dec 28, 2020 6:32 pm

Post by Grendel »

i feel v ignored lol
but why?

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Post Post #671 (isolation #61) » Mon Dec 28, 2020 6:38 pm

Post by Grendel »

*@Lunar*
In post 646, Grendel wrote:
In post 624, Lunar Martian wrote:
In post 618, Grendel wrote:I dont this this 1v1 between Lunar and Luca is heppful for ethier party. If both of you are town then maybe chill out for a minute.

-/-/-/--/

Lunar did you see the question I asked you about Gamma?
I think the way Gamma approached me and moving votes was probably genuine. It seems like Gamma came under fire for their actions and responded in ways that were genuine. The movement seems to come from trying to solve the game rather than trying to blend in.
I was suspecting your reasoning to be tied more to to commet you made about "one of Luca/Gamma are scum this page". but these look like decently thought out reasons as well.

In a world where Town!Luca is tunneling you where would you look for scum next?
*@All*
In post 638, Grendel wrote:*@all currently here*

Do you think that Luca is a player that 1v1's town as scum here in this context?

I think most scum hammers more more like a "swoop" then a "slow burn" (as Gamma called it)
but why?

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Post Post #672 (isolation #62) » Mon Dec 28, 2020 6:40 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 670, Luca Blight wrote:
In post 666, Grendel wrote:i feel v ignored lol

I’ll look over your points when the dust has settled on this.

I haven’t had time to meditate recently and am getting riled up easily as a result. I’ll take a break, apologies for this 1v1 I’ve contributed to.
Thank you. :)
but why?

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Post Post #676 (isolation #63) » Mon Dec 28, 2020 6:47 pm

Post by Grendel »

I think of the players active in this engagement Nopower actually looks worse then the rest via him negging Lunar from the sidling's. I dont think its beyond his town game to do something like this as he loves messing with people and giving out lots of witty comebacks as a signiture part of his style. (I wanted to do a trademark symbol over "witty comebacks" but idk how lol)

Gamma looks pretty good in his approtch to all this and i feel he came to a similar conclusion I had come to before I fully came to it.

Luca looks frustrated. I think the question is if its more liekly to come from town or scum. I WANT to say it comes from town but im not sure yet. I need to think more on it. (Hence me asking)

Lunar Im still sorting rn

It would be great if all are town but idk just.
but why?

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Post Post #681 (isolation #64) » Mon Dec 28, 2020 6:53 pm

Post by Grendel »

*@Lunar*

How positive are you that Luca is scum?

Like if you had to assign a percent % of confidence

-/-/-/-/

oh heythanks gamma XD
but why?

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Post Post #682 (isolation #65) » Mon Dec 28, 2020 6:55 pm

Post by Grendel »

@Gamma

you looks really town to me rn. How likely do you think Lunar/NoPow/Luca?I are all town?

If you had to assign scum who do you think it is?
but why?

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Post Post #683 (isolation #66) » Mon Dec 28, 2020 7:02 pm

Post by Grendel »

the more i think about the more i feel like Luca could have, (as scum), acted really offended and hammer before Gamma came out and unvoted. Like Luca, and Lunar where going back and forth a couple hours. That plenty of time to justify a rage hammer. So this means Luca is probably town here. Good Good.
but why?

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Post Post #687 (isolation #67) » Mon Dec 28, 2020 7:15 pm

Post by Grendel »

I have to get some rest soon. I'll try to swing by in the morning before I go to work. There's a very good chance that im getting nk'd tonight if Luca vs Lunar is TvT. Historically I've found that Scum are afraid of townies that are willing to actively break up TvTs inthread.

Thanks Gamma. I think I still am more willing to believe No power is town then i am Lunar. But rn Lunar martian is squarely null for me as I can see them doing some as these things as obtuse/indignant town.

VOTE: Trendell place holder while I think about Bugs, and Lunar
but why?

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Post Post #776 (isolation #68) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:06 pm

Post by Grendel »

Im not cuaght up yet, but i probably approve any and all Trendall votes.
but why?

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Post Post #779 (isolation #69) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 7:00 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 710, Luca Blight wrote:Well I’m happy with the two main wagons, anyway. I’m pretty sure Bugs is scum, I could see a world where Lunar is Town as some of their interactions during the 1v1 felt a bit townie on a tonal level. Their interactions with Bugs really throws me off, though.

It’s quite possible Scum!Bugs has deliberately tried to make that look like a bus so that when it flips green it muddies the water a bit. The way Bugs suddenly went so hard on Lunar out of nowhere almost seems too obvious to be a real bus.
This is a really interesting idea.

Out of curiosity is Bug spray a very creative player?

A move like that usually comes from more experimental/creative players.

I read through your points on Lunar and I get what you are saying but i dont know if i agree exactly.

-/-/-/-/-
In post 717, Amélie wrote:
In post 676, Grendel wrote:I think of the players active in this engagement Nopower actually looks worse then the rest via him negging Lunar from the sidling's. I dont think its beyond his town game to do something like this as he loves messing with people and giving out lots of witty comebacks as a signiture part of his style. (I wanted to do a trademark symbol over "witty comebacks" but idk how lol)

Gamma looks pretty good in his approtch to all this and i feel he came to a similar conclusion I had come to before I fully came to it.

Luca looks frustrated. I think the question is if its more liekly to come from town or scum. I WANT to say it comes from town but im not sure yet. I need to think more on it. (Hence me asking)

Lunar Im still sorting rn

It would be great if all are town but idk just.
I feel like this is either a huge play style clash or you are scum. I hate nearly every post you post.
I'd say you're allergic to me lol. If you can think of a reason every single post a player makes is scummy then you're trying very hard to make the player in question look scummy in your mind. If this is where it stands then im not sure if theres much point in me engaging you this game.

You asked about why I said "if you're both town then chill out" w/regards to the Lunar Vs Luca thing. Its a means of discouraging self-destructive town tendencies, its a net neutral as far as telling scum it i think? "if you're both town" just appeals to a player's better nature in general. I use the phrase pretty regularly in most games i play.

-/-/-/-/-
In post 722, Amélie wrote:
In post 721, Frogsterking wrote:I'm interested in what you make of the pig and outworldER slots, Amelie. I know there is not as much to go on; but can you extract any information on their alignment?
AGamblingPig seems to really like narrating events is what I gather from that
.
OutWorldER confuses me.

The answer to your question is no I really don't have any idea how to read these two players.
That interesting b/c the whole "keeping up with the game, and summarizing whats happening" is a crutch i leaned in hard on when i was inexperienced scum. Players are less liekly to turn on you when you say mostly uncontroversial things as a newer player in site meta. I will have to read AGambling Pigs posts agian as I dont recall them v well.

-/-/-/-/-
In post 723, OutWorldER wrote:What do you find confusing about me?
Beetlejuice ;)
but why?

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Post Post #780 (isolation #70) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 7:04 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 730, Frogsterking wrote:https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... _Detection

I posted this earlier but it may have gotten lost in my walls of text.

This is a research study analyzing this website using machine learning by a student or professor at Stanford. One thing that they found was that scum are more likely to replace out. This is consistent with my own experiences on this website.

Not only is a gamblingpig flip more likely because of the replace out, but I townread the majority of the active players, and what little gamblingpig posted is scum telling. It seems the general consensus is that things are going pretty well for town already, and it makes more sense that scum would fail to get a player into the town block or be given any kind of voice if they're already playing D1 down a player.

I would love to NOT get a pro scum replacement to pop in here, calmly review the gamestate, and find the best way to mess things up. I'm fine with gamblingpig not being executed until the replacement appears, but I believe the BW should be started before and not after.

My theory on gamblingpig also aligns with your theory on the bug and lunar interactions, because their interactions make even more sense to me if their 3rd partner voted Lunar and then immediately went MIA.
"Quick lets flip this inactive slot before we get a replacement!" Froggking looking really town if AGB slot turns out to be mafia.
In post 739, Frogsterking wrote:
@Grendel
Doesn't this quote below imply lunar and ER are less likely to be partners or am I misunderstanding the theory?
In post 734, Lunar Martian wrote:Based on interactions on this page I don't think that OutWorldER and Frog are both Mafia. I'm leaning towards Frog being Mafia and Out being Town.
Ahhh, can you elaborate on the theory? I feel like i missed/forgot something.

-/-/-/-/-
In post 745, Frogsterking wrote:Amelie might be scum Gamma
I think i stand by my original Ameile TR.

how have i been gaslighting?
but why?

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Post Post #781 (isolation #71) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 7:07 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 778, Luca Blight wrote:Trendall seems a very negative player generally. I have no idea how to read them, but there’s a few players I’d rather eliminate before them. I agree with Galron that one of Bugs/Lunar needs to go today.

I’ll check Bugs’ more recent meta to see if there’s anything relevant.
Im happy to vote bugs.

It be nice to have enough votes on Trendel so we can a counterwagon on another slot Im scum reading.

Im pretty over the Lunar Wagon rn
but why?

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Post Post #782 (isolation #72) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 7:13 pm

Post by Grendel »

Lunar standing in the face of death and actively tempting Luca to hammer runs contrary to how survivalistic most scum are. It would be safer in that situation to just go ahead and (fake)claim and hope for the best as scum. Lunar actively spiting on that notion and aggressing the players active in that point of time is pretty inline with town behavior.

in short i think Lunar is more likely town then scum.
but why?

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Post Post #783 (isolation #73) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 7:22 pm

Post by Grendel »

Yeah... AGambling pig looks bad.

ORAM dosent really look any better. I feel like since he was actively following the game before sub-in he'd have more impactful things to say in his op? Also seems pretty nervous tonally in his opener.
but why?

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Post Post #784 (isolation #74) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 7:25 pm

Post by Grendel »

Not really sure about the idea of flipping ORAM today since its so low info tho.
but why?

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Post Post #787 (isolation #75) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 7:32 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 785, NoPowerOverMe wrote:That's a fair point but there's a lot more towny players than him.
Yes, there are several players I feel more confidant calling town then Lunar. I also have several players I think are scumier overall.
but why?

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Post Post #814 (isolation #76) » Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:37 am

Post by Grendel »

that sounds hilarious ngl
but why?

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Post Post #819 (isolation #77) » Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:10 am

Post by Grendel »

In post 801, Frogsterking wrote:
My earlier question was related to something you said in this game about scum choosing not to associate with partners that are doing well.
Are you talking about when i said that only one scum was on the No Power wagon?

I didnt see anything else similar to what you thought i was saying.
but why?

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Post Post #822 (isolation #78) » Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:28 am

Post by Grendel »

In post 815, Frogsterking wrote: Similar story but not quite the same. Grendel IS in his mid 20s so his conscientiousness may have increased over time, which Amelie will subconsciously perceive as a propensity for authoritarianism and because she is following her emotions she will act with hostility.
Even more, I think that kind of like Gamma and his slight inclination for Order, Grendel is built to incorporate some Cautiousness alongside his Openness. I think Grendel chooses his words carefully. Therefore it makes sense that Amelie would experience hostility toward Grendel on some level because of his Cautiousness especially since that is actually a valid scum tell in many instances.



____________

Ref http://www.personal.psu.edu/faculty/j/5 ... tions.html
Yeah, I'd say one or more players call me out as being too cautious in about every game i've played in these days. I also agree that Amilie is predisposed to wanna scum read me in most instances based off play style alone. I feel thats obvious since she made a point of saying how every post i make looks scum motivated to her. Which is why i've not really seen her reads on my slot as a meaningful way to sort her.
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Post Post #825 (isolation #79) » Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:41 am

Post by Grendel »

Lets get bugspray into claiming territory.

VOTE: BugSpray

I would prefer a trendell/ORAM/Outworlder counter wagon to bugs. Lunar is more likely town then those three

-/-/-/-

pre-edit

wasnt Trendel Lunar's stronger scum read over all?

Lunar also plays like they want to keep the day phase going long as possible. Which means avoiding consolidating on a weaker scum read. I think thats sub optimal play since we're in the last 48 hours, and this isnt exactly a poppin' town. I do, however, know a lot of players that avoid compromise like its the plague, so the action isnt inherintly AI.

I think you said something about Lunar being scum with OWER for choosing the smaller Trendell wagon. Im not sure about that. But Ill keep it in mind if one of them end up being scum.
but why?

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Post Post #835 (isolation #80) » Wed Dec 30, 2020 3:46 pm

Post by Grendel »

At E-2 and about a day and a half left BugSpray should strongly consider cliaming and dropping their legacy reads when they come back.
but why?

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Post Post #836 (isolation #81) » Wed Dec 30, 2020 3:51 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 829, Gamma Emerald wrote:Something about the number of people calling bugspray second best makes them seem more likely scum. Not because buddies are trying to push townies rather than bus, but because generally the way to avoid getting limmed as scum is not to be ultra-town but to just not be the scummiest in the room.
I agree with this

-/-/-/-/-
In post 830, ORAM wrote:Quick post: replace "pretty obvious scum" with "scum who does things that will obviously get them to be widely scumread."

And make no mistake: I am a
very
nervous person.
I will do my best to keep that in mind in future.

-/-/-/--
In post 834, Frogsterking wrote:M y head is pounding I'm going to go to bed. I can't remember I was trying to say something.
Im very lucky that my "hangovers" manifest mostly as me just being extra sleepy. Hope you rest well.
but why?

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Post Post #896 (isolation #82) » Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:21 pm

Post by Grendel »

I can buy the neighbor claim. I agree with Amilie that scum would try to fake claim something that makes townies less likely to shrug thier shoulders and flip the claimee. Something strongly protown. Back-up neighbor is not a role I would say fits that bill.

Even If its a fake claim then down the road we'll eventually realize that there is no Neighborhood, OR mafia are put in a position where they all have to claim neighbors with eachother.

It dosnt mean Bugs is conf!town since historically speaking neighborhoods are net neutral as far as alignment distribution goes, (Unless current MS meta is different from a couple years ago) SO Bugs can be trueful about the cliam but still scum.
but why?

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Post Post #897 (isolation #83) » Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:24 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 885, bugspray wrote: could just be bluffing but would suck if we rekt a rolecop who could at least prove i'm telling the truth or even a regular cop who can clear me for d2
Yeah i was getting some PR vibes from Lunar too the other day
but why?

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Post Post #898 (isolation #84) » Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:24 pm

Post by Grendel »

Hmmm... thinking

UNVOTE:
but why?

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Post Post #899 (isolation #85) » Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:34 pm

Post by Grendel »

*@Bugspray*

you factually know that Galleon, and Nopom are neighbors? or was that a guess just to crumb your role?
but why?

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Post Post #902 (isolation #86) » Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:39 pm

Post by Grendel »

VOTE: ORAM

Sure, I'll help you out.

-/-/-

pre-edit No i havent really noticed that there before
but why?

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Post Post #972 (isolation #87) » Sun Jan 03, 2021 4:47 pm

Post by Grendel »

Did Amélie crumb who she was gonna visit last night? (I sincerely doubt mafia intentionally chose to target her)

Bug spray, who else is in the neighbor hood?
but why?

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Post Post #974 (isolation #88) » Sun Jan 03, 2021 4:49 pm

Post by Grendel »

*@ALL*

Looking over yesterday I'd love some GtH reads on Luca, Momrangul, and Trendel from anybody available to do so
but why?

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Post Post #980 (isolation #89) » Sun Jan 03, 2021 4:55 pm

Post by Grendel »

Thanks, i think this info could be very useful if they agree.

Also, Did Amilie out or hint her role in the neighborhood?
but why?

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Post Post #981 (isolation #90) » Sun Jan 03, 2021 5:01 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 977, Luca Blight wrote:
In post 849, Amélie wrote:Town: bugspray, Momrangal, ORAM
Null: OutWorldER, Lunar Martian, Trendall, Frogsterking, NoPowerOverMe, Galron
Scum: Gamma Emerald, Luca Blight, Lunar Martian, Grendel
My guess would be she targeted Frogster.
Hmm...

I guess Frogster was the most town looking player in general by EoD last night. So Amiele could resolve if Frog was town that he would be hit. That is a decent bet.
but why?

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Post Post #982 (isolation #91) » Sun Jan 03, 2021 5:04 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 974, Grendel wrote:*@ALL*

Looking over yesterday I'd love some GtH reads on Luca, Momrangul, and Trendel from anybody available to do so
Im reposting this near page top so that its less likely to be over looked.

Also thanks Lunar
but why?

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Post Post #1034 (isolation #92) » Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:46 am

Post by Grendel »

In post 983, bugspray wrote:there's info on the hood that im reluctant to share publicly because if scum isn't in it it would be good for them to know
Well... Ok then
but why?

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Post Post #1035 (isolation #93) » Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:54 am

Post by Grendel »

In post 1027, Luca Blight wrote:I hadn't really found him suspicious at all, though. It's pretty much the opposite as his posts look decent for the most part, but like he's actively trying to look as Townie as possible.
I feel similarly about you tbh

You went into detail on your trendell read.can you do the same on your Momrangul read?
but why?

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Post Post #1074 (isolation #94) » Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:13 pm

Post by Grendel »

hmmm

VOTE: Momrangel
but why?

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Post Post #1076 (isolation #95) » Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:19 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 1073, Gamma Emerald wrote:
In post 1069, Luca Blight wrote:I looked through the mini normal archives and the only game that had two backups of the same role was a game that had two backup IC's, but no actual IC, so not really comparable to this game.

There have been four members of the hood in total now, right? It would be highly unusual if they were all Town.
I’m not entirely enthused by this mindset regarding the hood
Imo neighborhoods shouldn’t be used as a PoE subset where someone
has to be
scum in it
Is this why you didn't have much of a reaction to Bug claiming the same role as you yesterday?
but why?

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Post Post #1079 (isolation #96) » Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:35 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 1060, bugspray wrote:gamma was added to the hood at the same time as me and claims to be backup
there is a claimed town investigative role (which one is unclear) that claims to have a green light on npom
I really wish you hadnt outted the info about an investigative in the nieghborhood. Knowing who is in the hood would've helpped me slove the game i think. But now you cant do that without narrowing the PoE for scum hunting town prs significantly. Even if scum are in neighborhood they would be flightly about killing other neighbor prs if they knew it wasnt public knowledge. I dont want to be rude, but this could've been done much better. -.-;

Whats your read on Momrangual?

-/-/-/-

Bugs i still town lean. IM just annoyed is all.

-/-/-/-

Pre-edit

Im thinking a lot of things. Most of which im not ready to talk about since they dont feel "right" to me. If that makes sense.
but why?

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Post Post #1081 (isolation #97) » Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:41 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 1038, Luca Blight wrote:
@Grendel
: Momrangal is one of the slots I fully intend on reviewing today.
Will you be looking at her soon?
but why?

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Post Post #1083 (isolation #98) » Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:45 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 1080, Gamma Emerald wrote:
In post 1076, Grendel wrote:
In post 1073, Gamma Emerald wrote:
In post 1069, Luca Blight wrote:I looked through the mini normal archives and the only game that had two backups of the same role was a game that had two backup IC's, but no actual IC, so not really comparable to this game.

There have been four members of the hood in total now, right? It would be highly unusual if they were all Town.
I’m not entirely enthused by this mindset regarding the hood
Imo neighborhoods shouldn’t be used as a PoE subset where someone
has to be
scum in it
Is this why you didn't have much of a reaction to Bug claiming the same role as you yesterday?
Yeah
Plus there is Mini 1838 as a strong reminder that town can have duplicate roles
Haha is that the one with double aseptic townies? I thought about that too when i saw the the double back-up neighbors.

Man i played like crap that game.
Luca Blight wrote:Yes, I'm just doing some online work and I'll get to it after I'm finished.
Thank you
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Post Post #1084 (isolation #99) » Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:49 pm

Post by Grendel »

*@Anybody who knows*

What is George Bailey's mod meta? Does he favor mindgame-y set ups?
but why?

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Post Post #1143 (isolation #100) » Tue Jan 05, 2021 5:14 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 1139, Frogsterking wrote:

@Grendel[/b] Do you trust the entire town bloc?
I trust you, Gamma, and Nopom.

Luca i have concerns about. Galeron i forgot why i was town reading which isnt a good sign.
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Post Post #1144 (isolation #101) » Tue Jan 05, 2021 5:16 pm

Post by Grendel »

I stand by my hunch that ameilie wasn't the intended nk target.
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Post Post #1145 (isolation #102) » Tue Jan 05, 2021 5:19 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 1141, Momrangal wrote:Prodded

Told mod via PM I'm V/la.

Don't know what is going on
How much longer until your v/la is over? I was wanting to hear your thoughts on the gamestate today.

In particular your thoughts on Trendel, OutWorlder, Luca, and also thoughts surrounding EoD1.
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Post Post #1162 (isolation #103) » Wed Jan 06, 2021 7:10 am

Post by Grendel »

In post 1150, Luca Blight wrote:
@Grendel
: Why do you TR Bugs?
I'm inclined to believe that the neighborhood is all town. I'll explain more when i get i get off work later.

-/-/-/-/-

*@Frogstrking*

Its rare that I see a live chainsaw defense. Im not really suspecting Gamma as scum. Lunar pushing a wagon I was overtly interested in yesterday, (trendell), is interesting tho.
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Post Post #1273 (isolation #104) » Thu Jan 07, 2021 3:18 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 1255, Frogsterking wrote:
In post 1254, Trendall wrote:Lmao wow. I'm not mafia.
It's okay, I don't think there is any way for you guys to win anymore, I already have a guilty on Bugs and I'm investigating Momrangal tonight, I think you should just surrender if that's a possibility.
Dont worry about investigating Momrangal. I checked her last night and shes mafia.
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Post Post #1274 (isolation #105) » Thu Jan 07, 2021 3:25 pm

Post by Grendel »

TOWN: Frogsterking, Outworlder, Gamma, NoPom,
PROB TOWN: Galreon, Luca

null or scum lean: Trendel, Lunar,

SCUM: Momrangual, Bugs
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Post Post #1275 (isolation #106) » Thu Jan 07, 2021 3:31 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 1256, Frogsterking wrote:Game is over good job town, thank you for helping me straighten out my reads Luca, and good meta call on Bugs.
Sorry i wasnt more help today. I kept waiting to see what direction Momrangual was going so i could form reads accordingly, and i wasnt super focuased on other things lol
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Post Post #1278 (isolation #107) » Thu Jan 07, 2021 3:36 pm

Post by Grendel »

but yeah, this looks really close to an auto-win. If last scum is trendel or lunar they should just concede. :P

-/-/-/--

pre-edit

Trendel over Lunar I guess?
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Post Post #1279 (isolation #108) » Thu Jan 07, 2021 3:45 pm

Post by Grendel »

I guess they were 3 town aligned investigative this game? (or was Frogster king the one in the hood, and the Nopom town result was a bluff?)

I was given a more unreliable investigative. Maybe everybody was given unreliable/challenging investigative if there are 3 town aligned roles.

Im really curious what power scum had this set-up.
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Post Post #1283 (isolation #109) » Thu Jan 07, 2021 4:05 pm

Post by Grendel »

Mommrangual scum clears Outworlder as town as that was her most aggressive push. Outworlder push was there to save Scum!bugs from a flip. IDK what other's reasons. She also had some movement towards gamma when she got cuaght up today, meanwhile was looking past some reads she had on plays at EoD. Which could def be a pivot away from having to risk flipping bugs/lunar/trendall today. I'd say Trendel definitely looks worse via associates b/c despite being in Momrang's PoE pool most of D1 she always seemed to prioritize other slots.

bugs and Mommrangual D1 interactions did look pretty bad. But I had a silly pet theory about the neighborhood b/c i didnt realize that the back ups were picked via rng. I thought that the Mod being a more "Mindgamey" character would have this large hood all town to screw with peoples heads. XD

Lucia looks more town now that i consider how hard he was bussing meanwhile Momrangul was trying to shift the D1 Bugs wagon elsewhere. Seems like a clash that a team who are fimilar with each other are less likely to have. Its not impossible, but its definitely unlikely.
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Post Post #1284 (isolation #110) » Thu Jan 07, 2021 4:06 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 1282, NoPowerOverMe wrote:I'm willing to speculate that Trendell is scum more than anyone in the townblock being mafia.
yea I agree
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Post Post #1287 (isolation #111) » Thu Jan 07, 2021 4:14 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 1281, Frogsterking wrote:I think we can wait to speculate on you and any town PRs until we know what the scum power have and confirm it's auto win (like one way of balancing three investigative could be to run a 3 scum 1 traitor setup).
should we coordinate our targets tonight?
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Post Post #1289 (isolation #112) » Thu Jan 07, 2021 4:20 pm

Post by Grendel »

I'd like to visit Trendel.

Bugs was already guilted right?
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Post Post #1294 (isolation #113) » Thu Jan 07, 2021 4:41 pm

Post by Grendel »

Sounds Good!

-/-//-/-/-

man, if i hadnt gotten cold feet on bugs D1 maybe this could've been a straight up perfect town game! I havent had one of those in a Loooong time.
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Post Post #1300 (isolation #114) » Thu Jan 07, 2021 5:26 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 1295, Luca Blight wrote:Nice work.

So I guess your whole ‘Luca, Trendall, Momrangal’ thing was just a cover for the fact you wanted associative info from Momrangal, Grendel?

I haven’t done any analysis yet so maybe I’ve missed something, but I think Galron could still be scum?
Yes! I figured including more then one person would make what i was doing less blatant. I recognize i didnt say a lot about my sus on Momrangual yesterday, and i was worried if i came into today guns blazing at momrangual it could be Obvi to scum that I had a red check on her. Which they could use to bus/distance premature to me publicly outing. It would muddy the waters a great deal if that occurred.

-/-/-/-/-

*@Frogster*

Froster, im actually a pretty intuitive player in a lot of situations. Out of my interest in "playstyle types", and "roles in discussion" I've tried out lots of different methods in engaging games, and I tend to try and morph into whats most useful at that moment. Granted im by no means a particularly skillful player. I just happened to have a PR this game that could confirm my suspicions. Most games I am bad at garnering strong conviction behind my scum reads.

I think that your application of "OCEAN" in early game turned out much more effective in winning the game then its ever been for me when I've tried "RQS" reaction testing in the past. I'd reckon that you are the better player between us. X)
but why?

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Post Post #1364 (isolation #115) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 3:41 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 1362, joqiza wrote:Okay well based on a quick skim of the past 8 or so completed Mini N's it looks like 3 scum is the default, and scum don't usually get any other kind of killing power thing so I'm going to be going off the working assumptions of:
- 3 scum
- 3 ML's (I would consider a town killing role using their shot as one of those ML's)

If these are dangerous assumptions to make please correct me. The balance seems very different from my home site EpicMafia tbh, I've only played one 13p before on there and it had 3 scum but the scum had a couple roles that could double-kill so we only had 2 ML's in the end. 3 ML's is kind of based.

Starting my rr right... now. Will update you all on my thoughts soon. :nerd: Great to be here playing w/ you all! I'm excited!!!! First ever Mini Normal I've played on this site!!!! HYPE!!!
yes 3 scum is typical for a mini-normal on MS.

also welcome to the game. :)
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Post Post #1365 (isolation #116) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 3:43 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 1358, Trendall wrote:I do not care about who the mafia are any more I'm honestly just going to replace out, I have better things to do.
Sorry you feel that way.

can we get legacy reads before you do?
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Post Post #1366 (isolation #117) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 3:45 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 1354, Momrangal wrote:Why the fuck would I target OWER as scum. I'm not going to be scared of that slot possessing a power role in this game. Like I said, scum clearly have bigger fish to fry.

Conversely, the fact that OWER didn't move makes me beleive that I was wrong about my read on him.

The only plausible "guilty" that Grendel would have on my slot was that I went somewhere and it's pretty annoying that he automatically assumed scum, instead town PR and outting a PR in the process
Sorry Momrangel but you're scum here.
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Post Post #1367 (isolation #118) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 3:51 pm

Post by Grendel »

*@Frogsterking*

you shouldn't have dropped the gambit today. Now Im going to be the NK. D:

I do agree that bugs reaction to your fake guilty was pretty awful.
but why?

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Post Post #1376 (isolation #119) » Fri Jan 08, 2021 5:39 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 1371, Galron wrote:Starting to suspect a Grendel/Luca team.
i mean... I outted a mafia. So... im probably getting night killed tonight lol.
Galron wrote:Who first brought up the idea that Amelie wasn't the NK target? I've seen it from Frogster and Luca. I think at least one other person. In my experience it's rare that the shot is deflected elsewhere. I don't know how this theory got started, but I'm suspicious.


It was me.

Amelie was a BG. The whole purpose of her role is taking the NK for somebody else. If there where a situation where a player would be an unintended target of a NK it would be the BG covering the intended target. Plus how does Amelie even make sense as an intended NK given her postion in the gamestate? Conf!scum Momrangual was one of Amilie's strongest Town reads.
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Post Post #1519 (isolation #120) » Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:31 pm

Post by Grendel »

Heres my single allowed "bah" post lol.

I had fun, but i am sad i died. This was a cool roster. I hope to catch most of ya'll in future games. GLHF
:)
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Post Post #2328 (isolation #121) » Mon Feb 15, 2021 6:54 am

Post by Grendel »

What a great over all town performance!

Pleasure playing with you all!
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Post Post #2341 (isolation #122) » Mon Feb 15, 2021 4:40 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 2339, GeorgeBailey wrote:I'm glad we could all watch part of this movie at Vote count pace.


Here's a recap:

Spoiler:
Image
immaculate
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Post Post #2352 (isolation #123) » Fri Feb 19, 2021 4:54 pm

Post by Grendel »

In post 2349, Momrangal wrote:I've decided.

If we roll scum together one more time, the mafia gods must have already decided that we are to be partners forever
Im very fortunate in that i never had a streak of randing scum in multiple games at once. That would burn me out as well haha.

Bineg scum can get tiring.

-/-/-

Im looking forward to unrealsesd PTs as well
but why?

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