Mini Normal 2190 | Baby Animals | Game Over

[clidd]

Hey Bugspray, good to see you again.

I was going to have a break tbh, but then a voice told me to come (and here I am).

What do we have about claims/mechanics so far?

Besides my own role, of course.

[clidd]

Your readlist is not very intuitive, Gerain.

Which part of these votes is suggestive to you?

It seems to me that you are more filling space in your posts with lIoA content than drawing an AI conclusion from it that really makes sense to you.

pedit: So I'll probably die then, meh.

Thanks anyways.

[clidd]

I'll take a look at the game to see if I can get any reads.

Let me use the deadline, btw.

[clidd]

I'm still doing my stuff in this game, so feel free to talk to each other and etc.

Just don't hammer anyone in the meantime.

@Thanks for the extension.

[clidd]

Gera, what makes you think that someone who voted more on slots that were town is scum instead of town with bad reads?

[clidd]

Scum can buss and town can be wrong and suspect town.

How do you differentiate?

[clidd]

Town don't have information about who is town/scum and can be wrong.

Scum knows who is town/scum and can decide if buss is going to happen or not.

[clidd]

It is not necessarily mandatory for scum to always vote on town, but where it is advantageous according to the gamestate.

Your argument is that scum votes more on slots that are town than scum, but town can do that too.

[clidd]

My problem is not with your way of thinking, but with the fact that your reasoning seems false/easy to emulate as scum.

You are not looking at the reasons that each slot used to scumread/townread player x or y and if that makes them likely scum or town, but in the number of votes and the period in which it occurred, something that in isolation is NAI without the support of individual impressions but that you treat as absolute.

[clidd]

Your approach seems fictitious and there is nothing substantial in what you are saying that will help me understand whether you are coming from a town or a scum mentality, except the point where you are not really reflecting me as someone who is genuinely putting cognitive effort to solve.

[clidd]

What do you think about Egix?

[clidd]

Hum, what reflected you as towny from him?

[clidd]

Ok, and what makes you think that Flea is scum?

[clidd]

Alright, thanks.

[clidd]

gerain I have voted cook, your entire post is predicated on a lie
VOTE: gerain that mgiht be yeet1

Bugspray, did anything change in your view of Gera after the last sequence of posts?

[clidd]

You're doing nothing to try and advance the game state gerain, you're just quite happy chilling.

If you want a case on me, go make one. It's as simple as that. Doesn't matter how bad it is, be productive.

If PoE is your case on me, that's amazing.

Simply because

I can pull a much better scumcase on myself

Gerain and Egix possibly don't have equity together, but you know something, I'm going to OMGUS and come back later.

VOTE: Egix

Simply because 1)I'm still inside my PoE. 2)I disagree with your reads, especially on Lotus who sits just outside my PoE. 3) I think you know something I don't.

I would like to see what you're seeing on Egix when you get back, Flea.

[clidd]

My solve rn depends on my impression of {Bug, Egix and Flea}.

Gera can be solved by PoE according to the conclusion of the set above ^

RLotus and Jim are town.

[clidd]

gerain's argument about vote coutns relies on the assumption that people will behave in a predictable way in general and i don't think that applies here because of how erratic mafiascum users are compared to the general population and also i consider any scumhunting strategy based on math without some kind of strong feeling not even has to be rigourous or even semi rigours proof but like i just do not buy the argument but i believe it's overall nai.
this late into the game i would expect town!gerain to be townier and would be willing to put my vote between {gerain,flea}

@mod can we get a vc?[/vote]

What's your take on Egix?

[clidd]

My solve rn depends on my impression of {Bug, Egix and Flea}.

If it came down to these three, I would vote for them in this order: Flea, Egix, Bug.

Do you think Gera is more towny than these three?

What's your individual view of each one?

[clidd]

gerain's argument about vote coutns relies on the assumption that people will behave in a predictable way in general and i don't think that applies here because of how erratic mafiascum users are compared to the general population and also i consider any scumhunting strategy based on math without some kind of strong feeling not even has to be rigourous or even semi rigours proof

but like i just do not buy the argument but i believe it's overall nai.

this late into the game i would expect town!gerain to be townier and would be willing to put my vote between {gerain,flea}

@mod can we get a vc?[/vote]

So why vote him for it?

Where's your solve, Egix?

Why are you voting Flea?

[clidd]

Trying to go through everyone's reads to make sense of it

Clidd has
Rlotus/jim hawkins town
Bugspray/Egic/Flea scum
me lean scum

Rlotus has
Clidd/Jim Hawkins/Egix as town
me as lean scum
Flea/Bugspray scum

Bugspray is weird

Has me and Flea as scum
Egix lean scum
but also in 1726 has Flea as town

Jim Hawkins has

Flea, Egix, Bugspray as scum
and voted me

Flea
Rlotus as town
Jim hawkins as null
me as scum
voted for egix

Egix

has Jim hawkins and clidd as town
Rlotus lean town
me lean scum
bugspray and flea as scum

If anyone wants to correct my readings of people's opinions, then please do.

I am going to VOTE: Bugspray
i think Rlotus could have switched to me today if they had really wanted to and get an elimination, but they have held off. bugspray seems inconsistent in their posts today, i've never liked their vote history

Don't you think that RLotus was towny besides his vote?

I don't get it why you're using these reasons as AI. Scum can unvote too, not just town. Considering that you're a LHF (if you're town),scum didn't even need to push you today, as long as they keep you around to ELO and then push you there for the win.

Your reasoning feels very fake, but I intend to check your slot by PoE, as I mentioned before.

[clidd]

We have 24 hours guys, don't forget to post.

[clidd]

i actually had Rlotus as lean scum from their voting. why going through today was important and neseccary. i think Rlotus as scum could have pushed a successful elimination of me today (and i know i am not a top priority for scum, but i am 90% sure scum would have settled for an easy elimination of me to get to 5 players/2 scum).

Spoiler:

Vote Count 4.5

Flea The Magician (2):

Egix96, RLotus

E-2

Geraintm (2):

Jim Hawkins, Bugspray

E-2

Egix96 (1):

Flea The Magician

Not Voting (3):

nopointinactingup, geraintm, Bugspray

With 7 alive it takes 4 to eliminate

Day Four Ends In:

(expired on 2021-02-14 06:13:00)

this is the bit where i think scum Rlotus could have got me eliminated. i had 2 votes on me and Flea has been itching to vote me. Rlotus, if they were scum, i think could have easily fabricated a case against me.

please don't focus too much on my methods (which you have done today), just see if where i end up and if it makes sense.
i am trying to be as clear about my thinking as i can, i am not trying to misrepresent my logic at all. if you really want to get into it i can try and explain myself better, but we are (maybe) getting close to deadline and wasting time arguing how i am arriving at decisions isn't too helpful i dont think. but that's just my view.

Ok, but you still not answered me about the point of you not looking for other evidence, besides the vote, to assist in your read about RLotus.

And again, scum does not necessarily have the priority of eliminating you today, since you are an LHF that can be pushed on elo (or persuaded). The game is not over today, we still have another day or two depending on what happens today, so scum can act in the long term and not necessarily in the short term (which would be, in this context, not pushing you today).

I'm not focusing on your methods, my point is that I did not visualize any line of thought of you that would allow me to have the impression that you were town, as the angles you are approaching can be detailed regardless of your alignment, as voting position/timing is easy to speculate. What I wanted is for you to deepen your reasons, explaining what exactly you think about each player, in the sense of ''I liked a and b for reason c'' or ''I didn't like x and y for reason z'', so I can have a better understanding if you are coming from a scum perspective, or from a town perspective.

[clidd]

I put it here but I'll try and put it in some more detail:

- Hawkins is likely town due to interactions with Cook, since I can't really see someone whom I'm seeing as needing to depend on partners (due to Hawkins having little thread presence) to bus the scum roleblocker on Day 1. (See my note on 822 in 1564)

- Lotus is town for having fairly good interactions with Cook overall, also I have town feels from posts such as 712, 528.

- Geraint I feel has good tone in his general posting - might not sound like a lot, I know, but I do feel like he has been posting in a very genuine manner. Examples: 860, 992.

- bugspray had good early interactions with Cook, but since then has pushed hard against a few slots which are either now dead town, or ones I believe to be town.

- For Flea, I mainly don't have as much in favour of fae being town as I do for the rest, though I do think that posts such as 829, 1007 were scummy.

Thanks.

Conceptually speaking, I find it scummy how you are playing, in the sense that I feel you have an agenda of where your progression will go and justifications for questions that have not yet been asked (which would make sense if you were scum trying to simulate consistently a progression of reads), but I believe this may be a personal paranoia of mine.

I wanted to elim you today tbh, as I believe that you are a deepwolf, but I can't ignore slots like Flea and Gera rn. So consider yourself lucky (if you're scum) or just relieved (if you're town).

[clidd]

- For Flea, I mainly don't have as much in favour of fae being town as I do for the rest, though I do think that posts such as 829, 1007 were scummy.

You funny.

Not a good reaction.

[clidd]

Geraintm has just voted for both RLotus and Bugspray, neither of which had any other votes at the time. It almost reads like diversion to see if a wagon will pick up. The only other wagon this could be diverting from would be Flea.

VOTE: Flea The Magician
You are at E-1. Say what you need to.

Hum. Idk if scum!Gera desviaria atenção desse jeito. Seria um jeito horrível imo.

But I do agree that they're both scummy.

[clidd]

Geraintm has just voted for both RLotus and Bugspray, neither of which had any other votes at the time. It almost reads like diversion to see if a wagon will pick up. The only other wagon this could be diverting from would be Flea.

VOTE: Flea The Magician
You are at E-1. Say what you need to.

Hum. Idk if scum!Gera desviaria atenção desse jeito. Seria um jeito horrível imo.

But I do agree that they're both scummy.

Idk if scum!Gera would divert attention like that. It would be a horrible way of doing imo*

[clidd]

Geraintm has just voted for both RLotus and Bugspray, neither of which had any other votes at the time. It almost reads like diversion to see if a wagon will pick up. The only other wagon this could be diverting from would be Flea.

VOTE: Flea The Magician
You are at E-1. Say what you need to.

oh, i am very willful with my votes and vote my way. they aren't distraction votes, just what i think i should be doing.

[clidd]

Hammer away, my reads have been shit hot this game.

Solve is in Geraintm(>90%), Egix(>95%) and RLotus(>70%).

RLotus is town.

Egix and Gera can be scum but only if you're town, and you didn't actually show up that you're town yet.

[clidd]

VOTE: Gerain

Seeing as we're at the wire.

So you have Egix as higher but decided to vote Gera?

Why not try to push Egix, who should be more dangerous in your pov?

[clidd]

Well, I don't see a reason to pivot from the main wagon rn.

Unless Flea begins to townspew.

[clidd]

Flea, you have 4 hours.

After that I'll hammer.

[clidd]

[clidd]

I'm waiting for a flip, not sure if I buy Flea as town yet

But, with a townflip, Egix is very likely scum imo.

[clidd]

Who do you think makes more sense as Egix's partner?

[clidd]

Ok, thanks.

I'll keep your impressions in mind

[clidd]

Gera, again, your approach to the game is strange.

In the sense that the logic of your scumhunting is questionable and, as I have already commented more than once, it is very easy for you to be scum with the current instance.

There is a chance for you to be town acting sporadically, but you're not making it easy to read you.

I'm not going to accept the ''too scummy to be scum''. Townspew/towntell or you'll get eliminated eventually.

[clidd]

Egix + geraintm is the most sensible team if Flea is really town. Egix scum still doesn't feel right to me tho.

Egix is ​​a deepwolf and players of this nature will always look towny in one way or another.

So it's normal that it doesn't feel right, but I'm pretty sure that he's scum.

[clidd]

The only counter to my scum!Egix theory was Flea, considering that I see them as T|S.

So with Flea gone (and a townflip), scum!Egix is much more likely than town!Egix.

Just by looking at the gamestate you can say that the last two scums aren't the powerwolf kind, they're likely deepwolf/lurkers.

Not sure yet on who is the second scum, but I'm confident that Egix is ​​the deepwolf that is stagnating the game.

[clidd]

There is a lot of agenda on his posts and a progression that seems too organized to be real.

Almost as if he is thinking of answers to possible future questions, rather than answering in an organic posting flow.

He needs to think about how he will respond, react, where and when he will go to x read.

[clidd]

Spoiler:

bugspray

Leaning town on vibes from posts such as 37, 71, second line of 235, 335, 529.

423 does feel like unwarranted shade but it's minor.

Andres

117, 120, 121

"But I’m not completely hating it so I’m staying put for now."

"Easy there. I’m not hating it because nothing else has grabbed my attention just yet and having a wagon at least allows for some commentary."

"Alright Cook fine I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt for now."

These feel like filler lines that scum use when they don't have real thoughts but still have to give some sort of semblance that they do.

155 - Very slight town vibes.

182 - If Esooaslot/nopoint are t/t this is bad.

218 - Another townvibey post, a bit more strong than 155 this time.

391, 393 - Eh? Why throw some subtle shade at Hawkins in the latter post, considering you had a favourable opinion of him in the former?

396 - There's a small part of me that wants to yell "make up your damn mind!" at this.

457 - Really surprising that Andres progressed from 391 to this in the space of <2 hours.

Slight scum lean overall.

geraint

267 - "some people i've not played with before in this game taking up a high percentage of posts but it aint helping me get anywhere with the game" - Very minor town vibes from this.

582 - I don't disagree, but this statement feels very generic.

666 - This seems ~fine, not sure what could've pinged bugspray about it.

Null-town so far but I'm hoping to see more.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Andresvmb

Until I can get to doing more of these.

nopointinactingup

Not seeing a lot of AI stuff from this player so far. Apart from pushing on Cook, does not show a lot in the way of reads until his latest post, save for maybe "I do agree on the take on Lotus" (500). Would say scum at a GTH level, but I kinda wanna let him develop since his playstyle seems a bit similar to my own.

Zuko

363 - Minor T vibes from "don't hold me to that" part.

504 - Liking that he holds off from joining the Hawkins wagon to collect his thoughts rather than jumping straight in.

ISO contains more posts than I was expecting; I don't really find the rest to be noteworthy but still, slight town lean.

========== N1 Re-read ==========

37, 38 - +town for bugspray - I don't think it likely that scum would call attention to 34 that soon.

42 - +town for andres.

71 - I'm feeling tempted to just lock in bugspray as town and never look back. Okay, that might be a small exaggeration, but still.

87 - TMI-s bugspray as town. Someone who didn't know their alignment wouldn't regard a mod question as AI.

108 - Koba prob town from this.

117 - This kinda feels like scum PT talk slightly adapted to be safe to post in the game thread.

118 - OTOH, the tone of Cook's response does feel like he is talking to town.

122 - Not an interaction involving Cook, but still, I wanna imagine Esooa wouldn't say this if she were actually scum.

145 - Not sure how Koba arrived at this conclusion, but still, noting it for reference.

146 - Oh you.

199 - Slight +town for andres. Only slight since there's still a chance this was just a sloppy distancing attempt.

257 - I presume that this is referring to 87.

270, 279 - +town for Esooa, due to the policy elim angle.

275 - Koba +town for wanting Cook to elaborate on reads. 282 solidifies this.

284 - "at first i thought andres was scum but then he said something somewhere that I'll dig up in a moment that like reversed all of that" - Huh, not entirely sure what to make of that line but still feel like having a note of it here.

308 - "cook- he has been quite awkward with his posting, but perhaps that is just how he posts, null for now" - Minor non-s/s vibes from this.

312 - +town for tris.

340 - Considering that the main wagon at the time was on scum, the timing of this post is... yeah.

383 - Polaris slot +town slightly for opportunistic timing of vote.

417 - "Slight Lean Town [...] Cook" - Oof er okay. I'm noting that there were a total of five players in the tiers below.

447 -> 450 - Irritation towards Cook mayyybe not s/s?

455 - Okay maybe not. Andres scum, Jim town?

473, 474 - Occam's razor says that nopoint is just town here.

484 - +town for tris again.

510 - Potentially partnery post.

513 - I don't think it likely that partner!Zuko would be the only name in the "Town" tier.

528 - "Cook has been quite awkward as has been pointed out many times. Not sure if that is just how he plays as town, but still a reasonable chance we just hit scum there. This is where my vote is going if it is between Jim and Cook." - +town for Lotus.

553 - "My interpretation is I think scum want to get out the only voice who was somewhat verbally opposed to their agenda of eliminating Cook" - Hmm not sure about this one.

604 - This vote is probably not s/s given the context.

635 - +town for questioning the inclusion of Cook in town core.

663 - "Your level of confidence on FB and now Cook is starting to freak me out. I don't think either FB or Cook have acted in a way that is obvtown. To me it seems like you are seeing someone do something towny and jumping the gun and overreacting." - I was going to note this as +town for sentence #2, but seeing as this also throws shade at Koba I'm kinda hesitant.

696 - I'm unwilling to regard this vote as a point in andres's favour since "deadline soon" was a pretty bogus excuse anyway.

^^ Notes from N1 (up to page 30)

Where's your solve, Egix?

Why are you voting Flea?

I put it here but I'll try and put it in some more detail:

- Hawkins is likely town due to interactions with Cook, since I can't really see someone whom I'm seeing as needing to depend on partners (due to Hawkins having little thread presence) to bus the scum roleblocker on Day 1. (See my note on 822 in 1564)

- Lotus is town for having fairly good interactions with Cook overall, also I have town feels from posts such as 712, 528.

- Geraint I feel has good tone in his general posting - might not sound like a lot, I know, but I do feel like he has been posting in a very genuine manner. Examples: 860, 992.

- bugspray had good early interactions with Cook, but since then has pushed hard against a few slots which are either now dead town, or ones I believe to be town.

- For Flea, I mainly don't have as much in favour of fae being town as I do for the rest, though I do think that posts such as 829, 1007 were scummy.

Here, for example ^

[clidd]

But that is a matter for tomorrow, we are already in the night.

I expect good conduct from those who stay alive tomorrow.

Even if I'm not alive, btw, my thoughts will come to D5, one way or another, so I'm not worried about being killed.

pedit: Hello

[clidd]

Yeah, I know.

You must be like ''what?, he is right for the wrong reasons'', but it's fine.

[clidd]

And now you're ''Hum.. How I'm supposed to react here?''

[clidd]

Wifom exists, my friend.

But yeah, don't worry. I will do my reevaluation during the night and the next day I will be able to help.

[clidd]

Although you are very transparent as scum to me rn. Sorry.

[clidd]

Perhaps this conversation is unnecessary if Flea is bluffing about being town.

But I don't think fae would troll about something like that after being hammered, right?

[clidd]

[clidd]

It worked, you are alive, aren't you?

[clidd]

It worked, you are alive, aren't you?

I meant the argument works every time (it doesn't, that was sarcasm)

Look, if you're looking for deep wolves, look at someone like bugspray who only needed to fake some good-looking early interactions with Cook and they'd be set for the rest of the game.

Or (this is a big tinfoil tho) Hawkins for being the counter wagon.

Anyway, I'm off to get some sleep.

Ok, I wish you a good night.

[clidd]

I'm not sure what to tell you, Gera. Your play has been scummy so far but I don't think it's 100% scum!you, because town!you can be playing like that too.

Your role will be clear by PoE, as I don't have any idea how to read you.

[clidd]

In any case, we already have Egix as naked scum, so it shouldn't be hard to figure out the partner.