Open 804: Popcorn Mafia Redux [Game Over!]

[RLotus]

hi

[RLotus]

Duchess town

[RLotus]

I had a thought, maybe it could be smart to do a democracy system on the first shot? Like, have the votes actually matter so that we can gather information. Otherwise, we are really relying on people to keep giving their thoughts in order to make any association reads, and even then it's not that dangerous for mafia to "bus" their partners because they don't have to substantiate their reads.

On the other hand, maybe that is dangerous since the mafia have a significant portion of votes to begin with.

[RLotus]

RLotus. Do you have any thoughts on any other players so far?

Norfolk was a bit strange as others seemed to picked up on. I think in general having resistance to being shot is scummy. Well town shouldn't be trying to be shot, but like I'm not worried about getting shot at this point if you get what I mean. If that is a strong scum indicator for him in particular idk.

A side note, I think town lurkers are going to be a detriment to us in this set up. I mean they already are in normal games, but at least in normal games lurkers' votes tell a story. But in this the votes don't really matter. Same thing with NM really.

[RLotus]

Norfolk's posting just seemed excessively LAMIST to me

Really? I think saying that you don't want the gun is scummy as opposed to towny, on the surface.

Whemstar who is asking to be shot is LAMIST in my mind.

[RLotus]

Duchess town

Why do you townread #28? I am getting scum vibes from it.

They seem to have town's interest in mind

[RLotus]

he still wont be shooting dunn if he doesn't get the gun

[RLotus]

After this point town gets to choose all the gunbearers (unless godfather is hit)

How does town choose gunbearer? Am I missing something here

by shooting

[RLotus]

I'm liking what I'm seeing from Mush, his convictions are very strong and seem authentic.

I don't mind WhemeStar anymore, I think his reactions to the pressure was fine. Nothing very AI was said, but a small townlean for him for having towny vibes.

A couple people said they didn't like STT's post, but I thought it was very towny. His perspective just seems to be lining up with how I'm seeing the game. Firstly he mentions how suspicious it was when Norfolk went quiet (easy observation to make at this point, sure). Then he said he liked mush's effort but didn't like his reasoning on whemestar, which I agree. He arrived that whemestar is towny, albeit for different reason than me, but I agree. Also I had the same thought about why people shouldn't be reading dunn town. Dunn's reaction to this calling it shade was a little weird, so slight town points to Imperium for pointing that out. Overall, I think this is a town perspective.

To me Norfolk looks like he is overcompensating for something he did that he knows looks scummy on the surface, so I agree with both of you if that makes any sense. I also agree that Whemestar's eager attitude looks like an act to me.

At first I did think Duchess was towny, but after wheme said the stuff about how Duchess' post was fluffy I kinda saw what he was saying. But, this post is really what freaked me out with them. He directly sheeped the reads I was having at the time which makes them seem disingenuous. Along with the fact that he had all the opportunity to give a read about norfolk but waited until others explained their read of him. With his read on whemestar, I think he was jumping the gun in calling it an act. All he had said at that point was "shoot me" and some nullish things. While saying that you want to be shot is LAMISTy, I don't see how you can come to the conclusion that it is an act based just on that. How Duchess so quickly jumped on that looked very scummy to me. And the way he has focused on Whemestar makes it seem like they are diverting attention away from Norfolk. This association might be a reach, but it feels strange to me anyway.

Duchess + Norfolk is my best guess right now, not supremely confident in that, but yeah. Duchess being the scummier of the two imo.

VOTE: Duchess

[RLotus]

I haven't seen anyone but you and Wheme talk about Duchess posting fluff. I'm seeing the opposite there. You'll need to explain how it's fluffy.

I'm mainly referring to their first post about how everyone should vote. It looks meant to appear as if they are invested in the game without actually committing to any reads. In hindsight it looks even worse given that he supposedly reads norfolk scummy yet didn't bother giving a read on him even though every post that norfolk made between the start of the game and when Duchess called him scummy were posted before Duchess' "fluffy" post.

Also, it's not even ten pages and 48 hours in and you're making associative reads? PUBLIC associative reads, no less? I'm also gonna need you to explain /that/ for me.

Well, it mainly comes from a general vibe I'm getting about the gamestate. It seems to me that several people are pushing onto Norfolk and naturally scum are trying to push into a different direction. Duchess' seemingly disingenuous push onto Wheme fits the bill. Again, I can very well be wrong, it's a preliminary read. But, there does seem to be something strange going on in that area.

[RLotus]

I have thoughts about this half too, but I'm going to save the nitty-gritty details while I watch how others react. I'll summarize vaguely like so: I believe someone could believe this, and I believe you think you believe it, but I don't believe you /actually/ believe it. I smell doubt.

Yes I convey doubt when I give that read because there is no solid information at this point and it is very hard to be confident in a read this early, but it is the best lead I've got at this point.

I see what you mean about not having substance in their very first post, but it is indeed fluff. Read it how you will.

[RLotus]

Unwnd, cakez and not mafia because we’ve played together before

Do I get an A?

You don't have even an inkling on who may be town?

[RLotus]

Mush, whemestar, and STT

[RLotus]

@Lotus- why wheme?

@wheme- why unwnd?

His reactions to Mush's pressure were composed and reasonable. And he seems to be in opposition with Duchess who I think is scum.

[RLotus]

I think if I shoot duchess I die

She flips red though

I honestly had the same thought just now

[RLotus]

Well that's not a strong read but it seems like unwnd may be bussing

[RLotus]

What makes you think it’s a bus?

Why is unwnd scum?

unwnd is completely null to me. I just find it strange how quickly they came up with that.

[RLotus]

Got it.

My question is wondering if I’m misunderstanding the mechanics. I’ll reread.

If we shoot the godfather the gunbearer also dies

[RLotus]

ok maybe im wrong idk

[RLotus]

I think finding out Norfolk's allignment would help quite a bit

[RLotus]

What would flipping Norfolk clear up lotus?

There has been a lot of conversation around Norfolk so seeing his alignment would help solve

[RLotus]

Why STT?

his analysis of the game seemed to come from a town prespective

[RLotus]

I mean in any case he’s either nervous scum or nervous town, and I thought it was odd that everyone just kinda landed on obvious nervous scum, so there’s either people looking for an easy push or there are bussers about.

exactly

[RLotus]

Norfolk Boy has made 4 posts and Whemestar has 46, so your last point about diverting attention definitely does not apply to me. If there is anything diverting attention away from Norfolk, it is Norfolk's own lurking.

Yeah I had a rethink about that and take that part back, Norfolk indeed has just not been saying anything.

I do still think there is some funny stuff going on between you and Norfolk tho

[RLotus]

Can you explain why agreeing with you is scummy behaviour?

Agreeing with me is not explicitly scummy no. But the way you did it made it seem like you were jumping onto others' reads instead of forming your own opinions.

As for my opinion of Whemestar, did you disagree at the time? This was the third page of the game, so of course I will not make any convictions or accusations as strong as those I hope to be capable of making later in the game.

Yeah, I disagreed. Whemestar hadn't said enough in my opinion to warrant the read you gave on him about putting up an act.

[RLotus]

You said he was being LAMIST. That explicitly implies some kind of an act or show or desire to be seen.

To your first point, and to a great deal of the assumptions you made when you voted me, I say that is simply not how the game of mafia works. If everyone ignored everyone else's opinions except to argue, there would be no consensus. If everyone only ever posted about their own original thoughts, there would be no discussion. You have yet to explain why my behaviour in that scenario was scummy, and the post where you voted me reads to me like justification for scumreading me you found after the fact.

I'll explain what I meant with the first part. Sircakez called what Norfolk was saying about not wanting to be shot LAMIST. I pointed out that I don't really think that it is LAMIST, but something like what Whemestar was saying about wanting to be shot is LAMIST. Essentially, I'm saying that the "default" thing for town to say is that they want to be shot and the "default" thing for scum to say is they don't want to be shot. Not that Whemestar was necessarily scummy but that sort of thing is what I consider LAMIST in this setup.

For the second part: Ok but you haven't given

any

original thoughts. And, it wasn't apart of any discussion. You framed your reads as if they were your original thoughts, when in reality they were half hearted reads on the back of observations others had made. I don't see how this is a good defense for the things I pointed out about you.

RLotus. How often do you see players of either alignment committing to any reads in their first post?

Not usually. I never said or thought that you were committed to your reads, if that is what you are implying.

[RLotus]

In regards to the 3 players to save question,right now i'd only save Not Mafia, because I love him. There's no pro town evidence from anyone other than Netflix at the moment.

do you have any scum reads?

[RLotus]

I don't like this one bit. Cakez seems way too concerned about how his reads are perceived, like he doesn't want to risk knocking over something he has carefully constructed.

Another read on the back of mush.

I don't understand what the next step is in this line of thinking. This response was very quick, but I fail to see how it connects to your conclusion.

Another vague/half hearted read in an attempt to OMGUS. It really just looks like you are pushing where is convenient as opposed to having your own convictions.

[RLotus]

What would flipping Norfolk clear up lotus?

There has been a lot of conversation around Norfolk so seeing his alignment would help solve

This is a bad response.

Give me specifics - what would flipping Norfolk solve? If a lot of people suspect someone them flipping town just means that people were wrong. Are there people you think Norfolk can't be aligned with? Are there pushes that you are more likely to double back on if Norfolk flips town?

Mmmm, I'm not really sure specifically who looks better/worse. I said this because there is definitely something strange going on with how people are reading Norfolk. To me, it seems like he is being bussed because of the little resistance he is getting on reads on him. Or, scum are chasing an easy miss. I believe you said you thought this earlier as well. I guess I would tend to believe the people who are very openly pushing hard on him would be bussing so they can get the credit. While people who say they find Norfolk scummy but aren't adamant about him being shot more likely want the missed shot.

[RLotus]

Town: Mush, Imperium, Whemestar, STT
Shoot Immediately: Duchess

[RLotus]

I really want to see Rock talk more.

[RLotus]

RLotus. You say I am scummy for saying Whemestar's early play was an act. You yourself said he was being LAMIST. These are the same thing. Please explain yourself.

I just explained this to you

[RLotus]

I have absolutely given original thoughts. If someone has a similar thought to me, I would not simply state my own opinion without trying to collaborate or brainstorm with that person. But to say that I have not given any original thoughts when you are the one who seems to have the biggest problem with them is a scummy push.

Virtually everything you have contributed have been questioning without stating any opinions, or piggybacking on other people's push

[RLotus]

You do not believe this push. What you are saying does not make sense.

another empty read

[RLotus]

Where did Mush talk about that post or present any of the same specific thoughts regarding it? I'd like you to show me please.

He did not mention that post in particular but he said that he scum reads cakez. And then you come in to give a generic uninspired read about cakez, like how you did with every scum read you have given, well except the one on me.

That is not a read at all, I am obviously prompting you to explain yourself. I would still like an explanation as to why unwnd's entry gave you the idea that I am the Godfather?

I explained it to netflix when they questioned me about it. It is like you aren't actually trying to evaluate the things I've said but trying to push back on me to defend yourself.

[RLotus]

You are missing what I am saying. I saw your explanation. I am not near satisfied. Read my words. You called him LAMIST. I called it an act. These are the same thing. This makes me scummy, and it makes you...?

These are not the same thing at all. I said that the things that he said are what I would consider LAMIST, but not that he had scummy intentions behind them or that he is being deceitful in some way. You said that he is specifically saying these things as if he is faking something. I seriously doubt that you can't see a difference after I already explained.

[RLotus]

my apologies

[RLotus]

Mush
Imperium
WhemeStar
STT
unwnd = Dunn
Rockhopper = NM
SirCakez
Norfolk
Duchess

[RLotus]

I wouldn't mind a Norfolk shot

...

[RLotus]

My rack and stack is basically useless at this point so I won't be partaking in your game either D:

boringg

[RLotus]

I wouldn't mind a Norfolk shot

...

Feel free to read our page-long exchange with Cakez.
Or any of our posts, really.

I thought your whole thing was that you dont read Norfolk one way or the other really, but are against him being shot because you are using other people's reads of him to solve them. I guess I misunderstood all that.

And you also seemed to disagree with me that solving Norfolk gives us a lot of information.

[RLotus]

Fair enough. I do find it humorous that you and Cakez had this big long fight over each other's reads on Norfolk, but at the end of the day both of you want him shot.

[RLotus]

She didn't mention that post, so you are pushing me on my original thoughts, correct?

You said this was a read "on the back of mush". Now you are doubling back and claiming it's still scummy that we both scumread him despite having different reasons, all while claiming that I am piggybacking people's reads without contributing anything of my own? It's like Imperium said, you can't have your cake and eat it too. There are so many logical holes in your read of me that I struggle to see it coming from an honest approach to the game, and rather from a tactical positioning against a potential town leader.

My point isn't that you can't make up generic reads about the people you supposedly think are scummy, because that is what I am saying you are doing. Same thing you did with WhemeStar and Norfolk. You saw that other people are scum reading them, add in your fluff, and frame it as your original thought (I previously said this is what you are doing). That is what is scummy.

The reason I am falling deeper and deeper in the Duchess is scum hole is because you are being disingenuous with your responses to me. Instead of engaging with the core of my arguments against you, you are focusing on finding "loopholes" or verbal trip ups in my case against you. For example, why is it that every scum read you give comes directly after someone else gives a read of that person? Can you expand on your reads more so that they don't seem like half hearted one liners with the purpose of piling onto someone else's read?

[RLotus]

I think there could be a scum in Duchess v Lotus but honestly their posts are so blah to me I just can't get a grasp on it at all.

There’s a part of me concerned about some theater there. Nacho doesn’t quite like the way lotus is pushing there.

What about the way im pushing?

[RLotus]

Now it's looking like a non-zero chance Norfolk is getting shot here. If he flips red then you can say you were never actually defending him. If he flips town then you can say you were correct with your defense and go after the people you were shading in the wall. Regardless of outcome, it sets you up for the future. And it doesn't feel like a genuine opinion, but an out.

If Imperium is scum, why do they need to look good regardless of the outcome, since they would know the outcome of course?

[RLotus]

I kinda like the spunk that Norfolk showed in that last burst of posts

[RLotus]

Oh boy this is going to be a lengthy argument.

[RLotus]

It's not my shot but I'd probably kill duchess here

me too

[RLotus]

that's exciting

[RLotus]

Not immediately no

[RLotus]

unfortunately I am town

[RLotus]

we are in elo yes?

[RLotus]

nevermind they only get to kill if i hit a goon

[RLotus]

Yes I'm going to take my time don't worry

[RLotus]

norfolk why are you okay with being shot here if your reads are generally terrible, you'd have to make a shot that is potentially game-ending

My reads are generally terrible. I always believe in them, though and i'd do my best. Plus, it'd sort my alignment and narrow down people's scum pools.

Honestly, read what Not Mafia did to me in Large 231 and how I read it. That game is still ongoing, but the part i'm referencing is long since over.

If I shoot you and then you miss your shot we lose.

[RLotus]

hey lotus did you read my stuff on STT bc i'm a rly good scumhunter and i think i caught scum

Yeah I read it, why do you think the reads list thing makes him scum?

[RLotus]

Don't you think he would just attack the TvT dichotomy if he is scum? I don't recall any indication that Norfolk wants to shoot Cakez unless I missed it.

Not that I agree with him or disagree with you, playing devil's advocate here.

[RLotus]

I also have no idea why people liked his Mush meta read - that was a bunch of hot garbage and I can break it down via wall if such a thing would be useful to you.

If you don't mind yeah. I thought his analysis of her play was accurate, but maybe not AI like he says.

[RLotus]

Don't you think he would just attack the TvT dichotomy if he is scum?

I don't get what you mean here.
I think he's setting up SvT dichotomies between Norfolk/Cakes/me, not TvT dichotomies.

I thought your presumption was Cakez was town, and him and you have a dichotomy. But I don't see any indication that Norfolk is interested in shooting you or Cakez.

[RLotus]

I see what you're saying.

[RLotus]

I won’t be shooting for a while

[RLotus]

unwnd, can you explain your read on Cakez? I believe you said it was primarily meta that makes you town read him. I read through a couple of his town games and I don't see anything jumping out at me. What specifically in his meta?

[RLotus]

I think I have a solve that I am pleased with.

[RLotus]

Can everyone give me their stack rank?

[RLotus]

Can everyone give me their stack rank?

i've had literally a day in this game and my reads are still shifting dramatically, i have some people i

really

want to question before i want to commit to anything

Ok I'm not shooting for some time still do your thing

[RLotus]

I think scum are trying to direct my shot to someone who will shoot the gf. I see three instances of this if my theory is correct, one of which is not well hidden whatsoever. And one instance has been doubled back on because I made it clear it won't work.

I'm being vague I know but I wonder if anyone will see what I see to maybe reaffirm me. My reads/shot isn't locked in whatsoever btw I am flip flopping a lot.

[RLotus]

Maybe there are no TvT dichotomies atm? Idk, it would make sense for them to do that as well.

[RLotus]

Dunn, what would you say your most preferred shot/shots are at the moment?

[RLotus]

Imperium, I think your scumread of petapan relies a lot on BoP. I really liked your reasoning on why you are probably not with norfolk, but it is quite elborate and not the conclusion I would have come to on my own, let alone someone just beginning to soak up the game.

[RLotus]

And with the egging on me being shot thing, I can see why people are drawing that conclusion. The little interaction we had about my push on Duchess was very minor and easy to gloss over.

[RLotus]

I'm pretty much ready to shoot tbh, I keep coming back to the same scumreads. I'll dump all my thoughts first.

[RLotus]

Ok, I will hold off until tomorrow then

[RLotus]

Lotus before you shoot I think it might be a good idea if you say who so people can voice any last thoughts

Because I think Netflix shooting you has shown itself to be a mistake for the game long term and we might have avoided that if they had something and not just YOLOed it out

Surprise I'm going to shoot Duchess

[RLotus]

It's clear to me that the scumteam went into bus Duchess mode because of the wave of momentum Duchess scum reads were getting.

And, the fact that everyone was heavy handed on Norfolk and saying virtually nothing about NM is a sign that he is mafia too.

I kept getting stuck on SirCakez being mafia given how suddenly he started scumreading Duchess, it looked like they were trying to distance from each other. But I guess WhemeStar and Norfolk make more sense, because WhemeStar, Duchess, and NM all expressed scumreads on Cakez. Cakez is the proverbial line in the sand, I suppose.

I feel kind of bad being served a 5 piece on a platter by Nacho. Part of me wants to give him the gun, but that seems reckless.

[RLotus]

If Duchess ends up being town, I think it is something like unwnd/SirCakez/NM +2 (Dunn and STT maybe?)

[RLotus]

Who do you think I want to shoot?

not_mafia or unwnd?

I really don't know who you want to shoot lol

Not mafia is such a weak shot suggestion
And I'm pretty sure unwnd is not SRed by anyone
(Don't respond to this this is just thoughts as I'm reading)

This post kind of makes me see the potential in SirCakez + NM, because Cakez was vocal about wanting both Norfolk/Rockhopper for weakish reasonys even though NM should go in that lurker category as well.

I really do think Cakez is town. The argumentative process he gets in with people is at such a slight that I can't imagine he wouldn't at least be self-aware as scum. The lack of care in that department makes me think he's a townie who is just strongly defiant, getting into a back+forth like Imperium because of his beliefs. Even the minor squabble with Duchess/MUSH as well. I struggle to see ulterior motive with pushing the issue so incessantly that Tammycho breaks out THIS TEXT and tells him to stop misrepping. I mean, at that point..what have you exactly won? What does Cakez gain as scum to keep pushing and pushing and pushing at this point.

I had this same observation, but my conclusion that he is gf in the world Duchess is town, and trying to antagonize his "scumreads" to getting shot, not fearing being shot himself.

[RLotus]

Mush and Imperium are lock town in my eyes

[RLotus]

unwnd I really think is mafia if Duchess is town, because he popped in with what he called quickdraw scum reads on Duchess and Norfolk (even though he had elaborate reasons for both). If Duchess is town, this was such an opportunistic read to push, given the dichotomy between us and the fact we are likely to shoot each other.

[RLotus]

Dunn can be mafia with anyone really. He isn't putting any effort into solving. His only conviction is on Norfolk and imo this is the absolute worst time to resolve that slot, making him shoot in e-lo. Looks a bit better if norfolk is mafia I suppose. Dunn is quite null to me.

[RLotus]

I'm scanning through your Day 1 posting, Lotus. Talk to me about Wheme. NOTE: I don't want you to reread, I want your detailed thoughts there at this exact moment without reflecting on the past.

I did meta on him and he does seem to act the way he is acting when he is town. If Duchess is town, I think WhemeStar is town because he has called SirCakez, NM, and unwnd scum, which pretty much lines up with my reasoning. He does however fit the mold of scum trying to bus Duchess because I made it pretty obvious that I wanted to shoot Duchess before I got the gun.

[RLotus]

Frankly, I think the world with Duchess being scum makes more sense, because I would expect some of the scum to be calling them town in order to get credit, rather than trying to bury them, if Duchess is town. Another interpretation is that the scum are provoking me to shoot town Duchess, which is a bit of the feeling I got with SirCakez initially.

[RLotus]

I'm shooting Duchess and not changing my mind. I'll shoot after Nacho is able to give his full thoughts.

[RLotus]

Ehhh I am having second thoughts scratch that about not changing my mind sorry

[RLotus]

If you end up just deciding on Duchess all over again I swear I'm gonna be /so/ mad.

Lol I tend to be wishy washy so I might

[RLotus]

I'm quite happy with that
I can't get off how Duchess immediately began attacking me it just didn't seem like a town thought progression at all

They had precedence to do that thought, they tried to call you scummy day 1. Your attack on them is where I see a lack of progression.

[RLotus]

I'm quite happy with that
I can't get off how Duchess immediately began attacking me it just didn't seem like a town thought progression at all

They had precedence to do that thought, they tried to call you scummy day 1. Your attack on them is where I see a lack of progression.

meh I don't want to go back through this I've already said my thoughts on this
I said more than once that I couldn't read Duchess v Lotus day 1 so Lotus town flip made it way easier to sort Duchess

Why couldn't it have been TvT?

[RLotus]

I think a smart place to look right now would be before Netflix took their shot. If there is evidence of somebody other than me trying to urge the shot towards Lotus, that could mean they were trying to set up a double misfire from the beginning.

Yeah that is the prespective you should have, does anyone come to mind for you?

[RLotus]

Yeah. That makes me wonder why you haven't been pushing on unwnd?

[RLotus]

I have been flip flopping between shooting you and unwnd, I feel like either shot cracks the game open

[RLotus]

This is not an avenue I thought to explore until Cakez brought it up. It's possible that I didn't see it because I myself am "part of the equation" so to speak, but I don't really have an answer for you besides that I simply didn't see it, and that unwnd/some of ABR's posts have given me townpings.

I think you and SirCakez are also opposite alignments, so I can't be too critical of that.

[RLotus]

Lotus would be an interesting shot, the reason I wanted to kill Duchess was actually to resolve my thought on Lotus and the potential of bussing

As for my reasoning

Very "giving" start in terms of information. Lot of conjecture-based tone. The way I described it to myself is that her sentences were hand-picked. I don't like it at face value because I don't expect town to process their words so carefully, especially not this damn early. Her reads are all pretty safe in a vacuum as well (such as her saying Wheme is faking the whole 'i wanna be shot' deal). That actually remains to be her strongest read I could pick up on if I think about it, which is pretty bare. I might've agreed with it 9 pages ago but Wheme has displayed a bit of individuality besides the whole shoot me shoot me deal by now.

It just seems weird to me that unwnd had reasoning to scumread Duchess, but then says he actually wanted to shoot Duchess to resolve me.

[RLotus]

It did kind of seem like he was egging it on to me.

[RLotus]

That was just entertaining what Netflix was talking about at the time. I try not to look too far into associative but it's always in the back of my mind lol

So egging it on haha

[RLotus]

To clarify, you also think both Norfolk and Not_mafia are scum, right?

Not Mafia yes, Norfolk I don't really have a strong read on, but I think is a somewhat likely partner to Duchess.

Also is it a good time to reveal what you meant by scum trying to push you into shooting a town who would then shoot the GF? Who was that? I wanna make sure I'm not missing what you're seeing here.

My thought at the time is that lots of people were swaying me into shooting Duchess who would then shoot SirCakez who I believed to be the gf based on his antagonistic play. Also, unwnd wanting to shoot WhemeStar who wanted to shoot SirCakez.

I've realized that scum are more likely just bussing Duchess.

[RLotus]

Gigantic snowstorm + additional stuff at work = 14 hour day with a 2 hour commute. I know that I'm now treading on broken promise territory so I am sorry that I unexpectedly got my ass kicked so hard.

I'd love to be given one more day to do my thing but understandable if the itchy trigger finger slips.

Sure I am in no hurry

[RLotus]

In post 1271, RLotus wrote:
If Duchess ends up being town, I think it is something like unwnd/SirCakez/NM +2 (Dunn and STT maybe?)


I've been calling Duchess town though... and this read seems inconsistent with your stance in 1266, so what gives?

I was trying to evaluate the world where Duchess is scum and the world Duchess is town since I'm probably maybe shooting there. Hopefully that's helpful if they do end up being town.

In post 1277, RLotus wrote:
Dunn can be mafia with anyone really. He isn't putting any effort into solving. His only conviction is on Norfolk and imo this is the absolute worst time to resolve that slot, making him shoot in e-lo. Looks a bit better if norfolk is mafia I suppose. Dunn is quite null to me.


I have more reads than just Norfolk, though... have you not been paying attention?

You haven't given any reads since mid day 1 other than Norfolk and calling unwnd scummy. What are your reads?

[RLotus]

I believed to be the gf based on his antagonistic play

I'm just curious about this because I intentionally try not to play antagonistically. It kind of ended up happening this game anyways because Imperium kept yelling at me but what makes you think this otherwise?

The way I was seeing it was that you and Imperium kept dragging each other back into the fight, same thing with Duchess.

[RLotus]

I didn't WANT to restart the fight per se but when I see scummy things I like to call them out and then Imperium always felt the need to rebut everything and that just fired things back up.

Yeah I don't know for sure what your intentions actually were, I'm just saying it would make sense for a gf to maneuver like this. Entirely possible that this happened to town as well.

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yes, i replaced into a scum slot and decided to get into a 1v1 with a widelytownread player, IN POPCORN MAFIA, because i'm a fucking idiot who loves throwing games

How would you have known he was going to push back on you so hard?

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to be clear i'm not advocating imperium get shot right now, i would shoot norfolk before them every time and only consider them after a norfolk red flip, but that's my little paranoid theory right now

In post 1212, Imperium wrote:
So quite frankly wouldn’t you want us shot first?

no, i'm not goin to push for you to get shot first. it's a tinfoil. not a hard scumread. jesus christ

I'm not saying I have the conviction about you that Imperium does, still awaiting what they have to say. Although, this does kind of look like you wanting to throw shade at them while staying out of the way of their shot, if they get the gun. It lines up with how you say you would be playing scum tbf.

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My feeling while it was happening was that there was an effort by scum to get cakez shot to get him to shoot us for the win.

Yeah this is kinda what I'm thinking too and SirCakez said something similar I think. That is, if Nacho is right about his solve. Duchess, Norfolk, NM, and WhemeStar have all been pointing at SirCakez today. I assumed that is where he is getting that solve from but I see it has more to do with peta.

At first SirCakez being such a big center of focus made me think he is gf, but you guys are making a lot of sense.

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With unwnd, I did also think the way he is sitting back is scummy, but after reading a couple of his scum games and a couple of his town games, I think this is town play? It seems he is more reactionary and kind of point out the weird things that happen and let his opinions develop on his own. As scum, he likes to appear as if he is actively hunting scum, often chasing down his reads. I realize that he might have a different approach as scum in this setup.

I never played with unwnd before so correct me if I'm wrong.

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My scum read of Imperium hasn't changed much, but now they've also tied their fate with petapan's. If Petapan flips town I'm certain imperium is scum. If Imperium flips scum I think petapan is confirmed town.

Why do you think they can't both be town?

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but for real it actually pisses me off when people hold me to some absurd standard, e.g. PYP X/Y I/M, where i had a meltdown when someone asked me why i hadn't caught scum and wound up in a pathetic tunnel as a result: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=84707

frankly in most of those games i feel my play was somewhere between mediocre and dosghit

was gonna try to throw together a readlist but not really in the mood anymore

I think Imperium is the only one scumreading you atm, you don't have to be so defeated. I'd be interested in a reads list still if you get around to it.

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Under the presumption that both Imperium (who I read town) and SirCakez (who I'm kinda sorta starting to read town) are town, surely

some

of the scumteam would want to influence a shot on one of those slots. Since I had Imperium #2 town and SirCakez #3 scum on my reads list yesterday, it seems logical that trying for SirCakez would be the play.

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Now, yeah. WIFOM applies. I'm not saying the world being posited is IMPOSSIBLE. I'm more just saying that I don't see many other /solid/ arguments for the non-Duchess slots being actually scum (so far it's been all "lurkers suck" and "bad reads"), and that it's an awfully huge gamble for the scumteam to make no matter WHAT their perception of the game state and their goal was. And that makes me think that something is wrong, that there is active misdirection going on.

Yeah, absolutely fair. I don't plan on going rambo, we will see as the game evolves.

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Imperium's AtE towards me has gotten so strong that I honestly wonder if they would be pulling this as scum

What is Imperium doing locking themselves into all these 1v1s then?

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Yeah I'll just shoot soon. I was hoping to see what Imperium has to say, but I'm not shooting petapan now anyway.

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Shoot Duchess

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ggs it was fun