Newbie 2057: Mars! - End!

[Kazyan]

Spaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaace!

VOTE: WhemeStar, for being several hundred light years away, probably.

[Kazyan]

Look at Skitter eating that poor townie.

(Ugh, now I want ice cream. I've been trying to cut down on sweets.)

[Kazyan]

We are 100% dead serious until RVS ends, obviously. Also apparently we're doing hyperposting again

[Kazyan]

I think it went as far as it

could

have gone, since I think you got to E-2, and you never put someone at E-1 unless you actually want them dead. (That's within lolhammer radius)

[Kazyan]

Hello, Skitter!

I was kind of an aggressive jerk in my last game, so I'm going to try to be friendly in this one and, like, actually listen to people instead of going "YOU'RE ADVISING ME, THEREFORE SCUMREAD".

Thanks for being an IC, Pooky! I don't have any questions right now, but will spring them if I come up with any.

[Kazyan]

pooky it makes me a wee bit worried that you're a scum-magical-bear who wanted to see if he could quicklim me before i showed up

I'm not getting any scum pings off Pooky, for what it's worth.

I vaguely doubt that SAMCRO is scum playing dumb, either; it would be bold to do that.

[Kazyan]

i want to know if i didn't show up shortly would you have actually pushed me to a lim!
(and i think you probably know where i'm going with this .... and had to have known where i'd be going with this ...)

I feel like a scum!Skitter would have been more heavy-handed with this insinuation instead of adding that last clause, so you get a townlean.

Also, I'm trying not to declare any scumreads or anything until much much later in the game, because I'm trash at scumhunting.

[Kazyan]

it's a pooky specific read tbf
i'm not convinced it *makes* him scum per se but like i am a little paranoid that scum-him might try to do that

(we've played a lot of games together before)

Okay, then!

I don't know enough about this situation to form an opinion on it.

[Kazyan]

Yeah, Wheme is clearly just doing RVS on top of Pooky's starting gimmick, which I think is NAI.

Welcome, CreativeName!

[Kazyan]

You said you were starting a random voting stage, but then voted someone for two actually-relevant reasons. Can you expand on your playstyle, there? 'Cuz I don't want to rush a Day 1 elim just to get a flip.

[Kazyan]

also definitely don't rush an elim, which is why I warned that I was putting pooky at E-2, but definitely I want to see as many people as possible voting or putting forward candidates for the vote as it's one of the best ways to read a player

That works.

...so, uh. VOTE: CreativeName, actually, if we're putting out candidates; 59's tone feels manufactured and it's look-at-me-I'm-so-town in my eyes. Other posts are laying it on thick with the basic Mafia theory.

This isn't a heavy scumread or anything--you're just the person I'm least confident about being town right now.

[Kazyan]

You're in the right place if you want people to talk more, then, because you're gonna see hyperposting--oh god, the hyperposting. It's better than lurking, though. If I had to guess right-the-heck-now, I'd say one of the scum is lurking and the other isn't.

I would have thought that power roles were the scum's second most useful tool, but yeah, "silence" is a good answer, followed by "indecision".

[Kazyan]

I can see

why

you're townreading CN, since he does portray a drivenness to play the game correctly, even if my gut feels that it's a LAMIST performance instead of actual towning. I don't think you're his scumbuddy or anything, if that's what you're getting at.

[Kazyan]

I do like people townreading me but I also have paranoia of thinking people are trying to pocket me, it's a double edged blade of are you genuine town townreading me or are you trying to make me vote with you at some point in the future so you and your scumbuddy(s) can win

I felt this feel so very feely in my last game.

Bleh, I'm not doing very well at this "save your scumleans for later" thing. We haven't even gotten everyone to post yet.

[Kazyan]

Oh, no, I'm absolutely awful at scumhunting; I'm just saying what my gut tells me, which has historically been wrong. In my first game, I went into a 5-person ELo an one Innocent Child, so 2/3 of the unconfirmed people were scum, and I tunneled on the one that was town. In my second game, I ended up getting a strong scumread on a person who was just a VT, while pushing back against the leading wagon...which was a wagon on an actual scum. Mafia is hard.

It's too early for a list on my end because not everyone has posted, but: I have Skitter and SAMCRO as townleans, WhemeStar as a null, Pooky as a null (but I low-key have nervous energy about a big poster), and everyone else is getting side-eye.

[Kazyan]

* she

Ok, can you point to an interaction that feels forced?

And why do you think i'm pocketing creative (i.e. vs just stating a townread on him)?

~

@kazyen wasnt particularly worried that you may have thought i was partnered with creative - it was more that if someone votes someone just after someone else said they townreaf them, i'd usually expect some kind of 'i disagree with the townread cuz xyz' and was wondering what you thought of it

(I think i wrote that confusingly, if you dont get what i'm saying lmk and i'll try to reword)

I think I get what you're saying. I might have responded with a "disagree because X" statement if your post had stated a reasoning behind the townread--that might be why T3 got suspicious. As it stood, I didn't give it more than like one second of thought because I was busy with Creative.

[Kazyan]

I would prefer to not talk about it until later

Why is that?

I would prefer to not talk about it until later

Looking like a doofus is a great way to not get nightkilled, but it doesn't help us find scum. Or town, for that matter.

Possible 1 active 1 inactive scum team, I have seen it before where a single scum does all the legwork while the inactive scum(s) get picked off, the best way to figure it out is to kill the active one as it forces the inactive/lurker to appear and defend themselves

I figure the same distribution. UNVOTE: CreativeName, since I'm not longer getting LAMIST vibes. Off the top of your head, if you're correct, who do you think the active scum would be?

i have a lot of experience with him (usually tvt, once or twice him s i think, i don't htink i've ever been s)
this is the first time he's done this sort of thing, it's making a little worried he's trying to like ~broadly discredit~ me, esp as he's still doing it (and not much else)

Do other players normally commit funposting as scum? i.e. is this kind of thing alignment-indicative in general?

[Kazyan]

If we split players into 2 groups based on activity

Active:
Me - Creative
You - Kazyan
Skitter
Wheme
Pooky

Inactive/low activity
Megan
T3
Griff
SAMCRO

Possibly my 2 most likely from active grouping is either Pooky or Wheme, I'd possibly order it from most to least as Pooky, Wheme, Kazyan, Skitter, Me

As for IA because of the nature of inactivity it makes players harder to read however from what i read of T3 they'd be less likely to be scum compared to some of the others, due to maybe some of them possibly lurking

I understand the Pooky read, but for a different reason: Up until now, Pooky's posts felt content-free rather than that he was trying to sort people. I really disagree that the Skitter wagon was scummy. Not trying to sort people might be, though.

[Kazyan]

Yeah, I'm really not vibing with an RVS meme-wagon being objectionable, during a period where there aren't actually enough players to hammer anyone, rather than the post contents.

This argument does not feel TvT.

[Kazyan]

Well, that moved fast. I was doing P-edit after P-edit.

[Kazyan]

Okay, I looked over Creative's and SAMCRO's ISOs, and there's a couple of posts that I don't like in Creative's. I'm kinda worried that this is confirmation bias from the Pooky/Creative "this is not TvT" vibe, but it's what I found out during the night phase.

The fact that you appear out of no where after we discussed your inactivity and then vote me and give a reason as if you have been following the game is a good indicator and example of lurking, also why is it wrong to divide the players by activity, we have had many hours. possible SAM x Pooky scumteam, seems to defend pooky with a meta comment "but I think this is probably something he does a lot" that states they haven't really interacted before or at all

question for you, where have you been all day, you've had plenty of time to chime in with your reads and opinions why now? did you see me say I may sleep and thought you could get a sly votr in while I couldn't defend myself? Well i decided to be a goblin of no sleep and it's a good thing I did

Also on another note it appears everyone has at least said something so it looks like no one will be replaced, or at least not for now

There's this super aggressive post, but then it gets clawed back just a few posts later:

i will speed hammer pooky if there is another vote on him so we can get creative after when pooky inevitably flips town

I get either scum vibes or mason vibes from this, it's way too early to call flips like this so this is scum trying to make us not eliminate their partner, or a mason who knows pooky is town due to them being their partner, 3rd option is pooky is town and SAMCRO is pushing for a second miselm after a first one

I feel like this kind of hedging is scum try to overcorrect for pushing too hard. Like, if Creative were town, I think he would continue to go hard on SAMCRO instead of doing this, since SAMCRO is basically confirmed scum at that point.

VOTE: Creative

[Kazyan]

Like I know that's weak, but I looked at the hammer order and the only question is "was SAMCRO being genuine in putting Pooky at E-1", and the answer is "I don't know", so I've learned nothing even though that's the Pooky hammer episode is the biggest piece of information about where scum is in this game. I mean I guess T3 is confirmed now, so I could take a look at that again? I don't actually know anything about wagonomics and the only things I've learned how to do are to get salty at posts and look through ISOs, which, spoiler alert, hasn't worked in any of my games so far.

How do you analyze a wagon?

[Kazyan]

By analyzing a wagon, we try to look at the motivations someone may have had for joining it, and try to determine if said motivations are more likely to come from town or scum

We know t3 flipped town, so if we're looking for potentjal scum on the wagon, we have to look at the remaining living slots

Okay, so...

WhemeStar, CreativeName, GriffNotGraph, SAMCRO,

T3

WhemeStar just parked his vote there and wasn't around during the hammer blowup. He could be scum, but given Creative's reads, I feel like it's more likely that he's just lazy!town and an easy miselim. If Creative flips town, we might have to revisit him.

CreativeName jumped on the wagon because of his accusations about Pooky, which were, like I said, weird. The reasons that Creative voted for Pooky are the very things that SAMCRO is discussing right now.

Griff is...interesting. He said he jumped on because of that's what everyone else was doing. Adding to the pile while feigning ignorance kinda reminds me of Mini Normal 2187. 2ndchosen1 rolled scum as his very first game of forum Mafia, and played the "ignore me, am smooth brain" card all the way until a scum victory. That being said, I get the feeling that the quick E-1+lolhammer caught Creative off-guard and that he didn't really want to be on the wagon when hammertime came? If that's true and Creative flips as scum today, then Griff is town and SAMCRO is town.

As for SAMCRO, it's like Pooky said. You don't put someone on E-1 just to prove a point, unless you're convinced that the person you're voting is scum. So SAMCRO is either very confident or is, himself, scum.

This is good, actually. It means that if we flip Creative and he's scum, then we have two almost-confirmed townies. And if we flip SAMCRO and he's scum, I think we basically win in that case too because, well, you'll see. So I'm willing to switch to SAMCRO if we have to do that to secure an elimination. Like, either way, if we eliminate scum today, we're an inch from winning and we just have to pick one.

[Kazyan]

Yeah I think I'm gaining confidence in the SAMCRO option. I'm not gonna put him at E-1 yet because I don't want a scumbuddy to hammer and for us to get a repeat of Day 1 with still little to go off from anyone, but UNVOTE: Creative for now. Finger of suspicion at SAMCRO.

[Kazyan]

i think this guy is being fake helpful

I think thats pretty bold considering we just started this game.

I don't think I like this post.

???

What's wrong with it?

[Kazyan]

WhemeStar, I don't understand how you think. What makes it so obvious that SAMCRO is confident town?

[Kazyan]

I can agree with him about creative

Scum aren’t so confident in fake reads that he will vote someone else just to get his point across.

Why do you scumread him?

What Pooky said just made a lot of sense to me. I just don't think it's so unreasonable that Charge Into Glorious Battle is a scum strategy in the newbie queue. I'm not sure what to tell you beyond that.

[Kazyan]

You're the SE, I suppose.

@Skitter

, when you get back from V/LA: Does newbscum charge forth with accusations like this?

[Kazyan]

Welcome back.

It's kinda hard for me to have gut/tone reads on people who don't post. I feel like until Griff and/or Megan start to post--or get replaced--we're just sitting her twiddling our thumbs. Wheme and SAMCRO don't like Creative, while the rest of us don't like SAMCRO. And we need 4 to eliminate, so, uh. I'm gonna look at my watch, sigh, and tap my foot impatiently; anyone wanna join me?

This also make sit hard for me to have a readlist. Normally I wait until a little later than most to present a readslist, but we're in an awkward spot where two people don't post and we're trying to figure out whether Creative or SAMCRO (probably SAMCRO) are scum, so I can only really talk about Skitter and Wheme--who I think I have already shared my reads on.

[Kazyan]

@WhemeStar
@Kazyan

do you agree to get creative and skitter once i am elimmed? i wont ping the other two cuz they might be replaced apparently

I can agree to vote Creative if you flip town today. No promises on Skitter.

[Kazyan]

SAMCRO is a Mars god confirmed

[Kazyan]

So while we're waiting, let's have a stupid question. What toppings do you guys like on your pizzas? I usually order a jalapeno and bacon combination, but they won't deliver to Mars

[Kazyan]

I know I keep complaining, but it's low-key stupid and frustrating that we have the identity of one scum pretty tightly narrowed-down, but that we don't have the wherewithal to eliminate someone right now. Everything is fine if I'm right about SAMCRO, but...

[Kazyan]

Welcome, Seeds!

[Kazyan]

Thanks for the review, Seeds! (Is "Seeds" okay, or do you prefer a different shortform name?)

Your towncase on SAMCRO is illuminating, specifically the townslip implication in #213. I think it's because I've been hype about one of the scum slots being narrowed down to either Creative or SAMCRO in my eyes, so I was seeing everything they said as suspicious. I don't get to have such a level of confidence this early in a game, usually. That might actually be why you're scared of me; I wasn't picking up on town signals, which is just plain bad play from me.

I also have a sense that there may be resistance to my push Skitter seems like a player that others will be intimidated from voting especially on day 2 but in my experience when you are town you have to vote with courage and can't just default to easy votes and my read of the game rn is Skitter scum. I may be TRing a mafia at present tbh but its okay. I just get a sinking feeling that voting between creative and samcro right now is exactly how town loses this game and I want to see Skitter flip scum and then go giggling off into the night .

So skitter, did you kill T3 last night because you PR read them or because they sussed you and would have defended against your shit push on Samcro? What's up?

Voting Skitter is a hot take, but I can see how you got it, given your scumcase on her. I still think Skitter is town, but it's just a gut feeling from posts like #207, not based on any actual evidence or anything.

If we're talking about voting with courage, though...you've pointed out SAMCRO's town slip, so I gotta VOTE: CreativeName. I'm still scumreading him from the Pooky event, and he retaliated on SAMCRO's accusation with great prejudice; this is why I think at least one of them must be scum.

[Kazyan]

Mod, six pomegranate seeds voted for Skitter.

[Kazyan]

Its ok kazayan. You can call me seeds! I admit you could be right that creative is scum, but I'd rather vote skimmer first. Idk maybe we'll just have to agree to disagree. If you agree that SAM is probably town doesn't post 207 look scummy to you? But I admit skimmer later backed off a little bit when SAM said he would get everyone to agree to go creative -> Skimmer.

You know what, yeah. The way you put it, the actual

intent

of that post is scummy, even if the

wording

looked towny to me. Good eye. This must be why my gutreads suck--I'm not considering the reasons why people do the things they do, rather than their language.

At the moment, my solve is either Creative/Skitter or Creative/Seeds (your review masterposts looked kinda town, but I can see how they'd align with an agenda). That said, this is suddenly a lot of heat that is being pointed at Skitter, so if she flips town, I'm gonna be unhappy with how this narrative was built.

[Kazyan]

You want to vote skitter, but it sounds like you know skitter is flipping town... " so if she flips town, I'm gonna be unhappy with how this narrative was built."
Do you have an actual reason you're sus of skitter, or are you going to blame someone else if we vote out town!skitter?? I'm kinda sus of you right now, not gonna lie


VOTE: no one

That's fair suspicion; I was cagey in my response. To clarify, my finger of suspicion is pointed at Skitter because Seeds provided me with a good scumcase on her: she's trying to kick out what I now see as a strong townread, and a Creative/Skitter team is completely consistent with both players' actions through this game. Logically, a vote against Skitter makes sense. But on the other hand, it doesn't make nearly as much sense as a Creative vote. I'm like 80% sure Creative is Mafia at this point, and the chance of finding the other scum in a pool of four others (excluding SAMCRO) is a lot slimmer. This is where I differ from Seeds: whereas he has a bad feeling that voting within Creatve/SAMCRO is how town loses, I see that if a Mafia member

is

in there, wouldn't they want to deflect as much heat as possible?

[Kazyan]

Wait, crap lmao we didn't have a single vote outside of the SAMCRO/Creative deadlock up until you guys came in. Mafia can't be trying to deflect. Damn, now that I put my thoughts into words, I realize that I'm freaking out over nothing

[Kazyan]

Your towncase on SAMCRO is illuminating, specifically the townslip implication in #213

213 is not a townslip and i'm not sure why it's being read that way

i'm not sure why you're not really taking into account hte possibility that ... he's just lying about forgetting about the game?

I'm reading it that way because, well, what else could it be? It seems really out-there as a lie, to me. If anyone is aware of examples of scum using a similar townslip, though, I'll completely concede the point.

[Kazyan]

These chained late-night solving-attempt posts are incredibly towny. I can see the depth of thought in your mindset in considering all of the outcomes.

[Kazyan]

If y'all are still going to scumread Seeds for this, I officially don't understand what scumminess even is

[Kazyan]

I feel like if Creative is somehow town maybe that would make Kazyan a deep wolf. He said he would play conciliatory in the beginning which seems kinda a maf thing to say. Town normally seems more abrassive. He seems a little conciliatory in the way he said oh wait I didn't notice that town slip wow I was not picking up on town vibes no wonder you are afraid of me. But I dont want to SR people for being nice and I thought Kazyan's reactions to Creative's somewhat reach of reads early game pinged town. Maybe there is exactly one mafia between creative and kazyan just from the way kazyan has pushed creative throughout the game. If creative were to flip blue maybe I'd reconsider my Kazyan read.

By the way, you're not the only one who tears their hair out when trying to get into my head. It's not like I'm an enigma, but I've never been an easy person to intuitively understand, and I think that translates onto a forum as well.

If Creative somehow flipped town, it would be downright irresponsible

not

to immediately scumread me at that point, since I've been the one yelling about him the most.

[Kazyan]

Ok, I see that there's been some major distrust of the way I've played today. You might not want answers from me about that, but I have them.

My "north star" for this game has been the argument between Creative and SAMCRO. I saw SAMCRO go into attack mode and I saw Creative blow up in retaliation, and this whole time, I've remained completely convinced that there must be scum between the two of them due to the veracity of that attack. Therefore, my whole objective for day 2 has been to figure out which of the two are scum. I narrowed down two players that each have a ~50% chance of being Mafia, thus leaving everyone else at a 25% chance, which meant that I didn't care about anyone else--thus the lack of commentary elsewhere. You can

not

take that blowup argument into two rounds of ELo, because unless the town is seriously on top of their game and both peripheral townies take the proper side of the argument, that's just a loss condition. What you

can

do is flip one side of Creative/SAMCRO to try your better 50% odds, and then if they're not scum, vote off the other. Even if you're wrong on your first guess, the ELo you arrive at only requires the correct town deduction instead of two. To me, there was no way that flipping either Creative or SAMCRO wasn't optimal play, unless I could somehow catch the other scum in a pool of twice as many people, which I was really not ready to do. I have a 0% success rate at scumhunting so far.

(The problem with the above plan is that you have to walk up to everyone and say "hey, I'm totally prepared to hammer either of them; I don't care which, lolol". But I can't say that, or everyone turns on me and we lose a townie, which, as I just went over, means that we lose. So I decided to play with that plan, without telling anybody what the plan was. Surprise--that looks super scummy. I'm not great at peforming my towniness, because I care more about getting mafia eliminated than surviving. I gathered a lot of suspicion in Mini Normal 2187 and in Newbie 2054 for this exact problem, and it's recurring. But now I

have

to care about not getting eliminated, because see above.)

What happened next was people splitting down the middle between Creative and SAMCRO--which was bad for two reasons. First, it mant that if a miselimination was had outside of Creative and SAMCRO, there's nothing that Mafia has left to worry about except for an incriminating tracker result. Second, it meant that we didn't even have the votepower to come to a conclusions--two people were MAI.

Once I realized that Whemestar couldn't break the tie no matter who he voted, I kinda started to lose interest, tuned out the peripheral arguments, and eventually started talking about stuff like pizza toppings. No one made any progress on deciding anything, and even the deadline timer froze. I've stopped posting so much because I stopped seeing much of a point.

Thankfully, we got Seeds next. Suddenly we get a strong towncase on SAMCRO from someone who towns very towningly, and provides a new perspective.

I would like for us to come to some kind of consensus on voting. I will admit, forthright now, that I am willing to hammer SAMCRO or to keep my vote parked on Creative, so that we can get both of them eliminated and actually put the game into a winnable state. You can do with that opinion what you want. I very much do not want an elimination on Seeds, Andante, Whemestar, Kazyan, or Skitter. The heat the Seeds has been taking, in particular, is unwarranted.

[Kazyan]

Welp. I'm suddenly feeling a lot better about my scumhunting ability. I formally declare that I'm VT, and thus don't counterclaim Creative.

I do not have a solve, per se, but several possibilities. I have two of each, so this doesn't really help, but I'm inclined to believe Creative--his cagey play makes sense in light of his claim, though that's probably me just empathizing too much with someone else who was also hiding something. I also have sort of a policy that holds over from Among Us, where all else being equal, I believe the person who makes the accusation rather than the counter-accusation.

Possible scum pairings with Creative, with reasonable ones highlighted:

Creative/Andante: Very unlikely, given that if this is true, Andante spent all this time trying to build me up as the miselim and also attacking Creative, bu then Creative kneecaps the entire effort.
Creative/Seeds: Seeds is not scum. Pumping out this much analysis, this quickly, as off-the-cuff reactions to people's comments and exhibiting this much depth of thought...it strikes me as almost impossible for scum to fake.

Creative/Whemestar

: Idk, I could see this interaction as scripted scum theater to take the heat off Whemestar? But it would be throwing away a lot just to defend a partner. This is a weaker possibility.

Creative/Skitter

: I could see Skitter faking this reaction, but it's a hard sell to them immediately take control as the town leader of the discussion opposite Seeds. but maybe that makes sense for Skitter in isolation.

Possible scum pairings with SAMCRO, with reasonable ones highlighted:

SAMCRO/Andante

: Kneecapping issue no longer applies.
SAMCRO/Seeds: Seeds is not scum. See above.

SAMCRO/Whemestar

: It makes perfect sense to try to kill Creative and defend one's partner.
SAMCRO/Skitter: Skitter would be bussing SAMCRO pretty hard here. Not likely to me.

Wheme, Kazayan if you TR me please vote SAMCRO. You're outted scum otherwise

Grumble grumble I want the hammer grumble grumble. VOTE: SAMCRO

[Kazyan]

I dont think we need gthe replacement because sam ultimately will aleays get flipped but i want to get andente's formal cc

Kaz, thanks for that analysis. Which pairing do you think is most likely?

SAMCRO/Whemestar or Creative/Whemestar.

"there's nothing that Mafia has left to worry about except for an incriminating tracker result" this isn't a slip right? I honestly kind of forget what FN is thats the one that confirm itself as town to people it visits right? Maybe it's not a slip then. Lol, just a thought.

Friendly Neighbor tells someone you're town, yeah. I don't see how that's a townslip but I'm reassured if you think so lol

By the way, it's "Kazyan". Six letters, with only two As.

[Kazyan]

fferylt, your countdown appears to be off by 1 hour. No big deal.

I was considering Creative/Andante, because of the "1 active, 1 inactive" thing that Creative kept bringing up. That could have been the actual Refuge In Audacity he was talking about--telling the game his entire plan. But I guess now I can take off the tinfoil hat, there.

I'm pretty nervous about a possible Creative/Skitter team, since they've aligned for the whole game. However, I'm willing to put all my chips on Creative/Whemestar. Go look over post #581. There's this clear "look what you made me do" implication from Creative that I don't like; this looks to me like a gambit to give Whemestar a giant pile of towncred so that he's the one who survives ELo. I can't

rule out

that Creative and Skitter planned that to put the scummy-spotlight on Whemestar and get him out of Creative's hair, but that seems less likely to me than just trying to save one's partner.

[Kazyan]

Is it bad that I just want to sheep whatever Seeds's final conclusion is? I give him like a 2% chance of being a deepwolf, tops.

[Kazyan]

I'm praying your not mafia man because I'm literally never going to vote you LOL. Please be town Kaz I'll be so sad if you aren't.

Literally thinking the same thing about you tbh

[Gamesolve omitted for brevity]

I think I open this day by asking Kazyan does he see scum as more hard aligning or more distancing usually? Because that to me is the crux of the game - skitter hard aligning with creative I read town, wheme distancing from creative I read scum.

Uhhhhhhhhhh that's a hard question, because it's so meta-dependent. I guess in Mini Normal 2187, we lost due to some masterful distancing by unwnd and 2ndchosen1, so my one (1) datapoint makes me think that distancing is more likely in the meta? But when I play Among Us and roll Impostor, I tend to hard-defend my partner. That game is really short and people can't go back and relisten to voice chat, though, so it probably doesn't apply. Either way, both Whemestar and Skitter are SEs, so I figure they're more likely to follow the meta.

I guess Skitter bringing up the "I'm really good at distancing" point could be a way to diffuse suspicion of a Creative/Skitter pair, but like you said, scum don't want to talk about their scumgame.

[Kazyan]

If you're relying on me to get an idea of how scum normally play, uh, this is only my third game and I still don't really know. I've spectated the Iceland game, but that seems like exceptional nontypical play

[Kazyan]

Like in my second game, Newbie 2054, the scum were instantly destroyed, And in Mini Normal 2187, that wasn't a newbie game. The scumteam was really good there. In retrospect, I don't see any scum that hard-align in any of my games of the Iceland game, so I have to conclude that distancing is more likely.

[Kazyan]

I get the sinking feeling that if we're narrowing down the suspect pool to Skitter and Whemestar, I'm going to wake up tomorrow with you dead and the whole game will come down to whether I'm right about Whemestar. I know I got Creative right so I

should

have this, but I'm scared

[Kazyan]

Yeah, Creative brought up that he had experience in a non-forum setting really early in the game, way before you swapped in.

Skitter, who do you think is Creative's partner?

[Kazyan]

I was hoping that I'd get an answer like "definitely Seeds" so I could sort you as town--because, like, scum!Skitter wins if she can form a townblock against Whemestar here, but this also makes sense for town!Skitter :/

[Kazyan]

No claim. Still VT.

Speaking of that hammer, do we think Whemestar was trying to cut off conversation, or nah?

[Kazyan]

Okay my huge paragraph was a joke skitter I'm tracker and I saw you visit Andante

gg you tried

Seeds for the sake of my sanity I need you to clarify if you're joking or not

[Kazyan]

Thinking back on Skitter, if she's going for a hard-alignment strategy, she's been doing it for literally the entire game. I'm not sure if scum can play counter to their own playstyle consistently for that long, even SEs.

[Kazyan]

Whemestar has been awfully quiet

[Kazyan]

Is there a towncase on Whemestar? We have one for Skitter now, so I want to see if we can come up with a town reason for Whemestar's behavior. If not, then I say we just lock that in as our solve and hope to god we're right.

[Kazyan]

For completed games where Skitter is scum, the most recent one on Skitter's wiki page is Mini 2049.

[Kazyan]

Do we think that Skitter would go this far out of her way to explain that what she's doing right now is consistent with her scumgame? I still can't see through WIFOM very well.

[Kazyan]

I don't think I'm gonna change my mind on you at this point, Skitter. We just had like 6 new pieces of town evidence for you in a row, and this just...

I mean, it's Creative/Whemestar. And if I'm wrong, you deserve the win.

[Kazyan]

Regarding Whemestar, I feel like appeal to emotion like that is the last refuge of caught scum.

[Kazyan]

idk I guess it could be townie from the "you didn't listen to me and now you're going to lose" perspective

[Kazyan]

Process of Elimination: we have a bunch of town evidence for Skitter, and I don't think this much analysis comes out of scum!Seeds. Your content, meanwhile, is sparse.

[Kazyan]

Am I just tunneling? Whemestar, if you're not scum, who is?

[Kazyan]

The Andante kill doesn't have an obvious cause to me. Maybe it's that Andante's reads were a wildcard? They didn't say anything after the tracker claim.

[Kazyan]

Yeah, the narratives that Wheme is trying to tell aren't fitting together. He did pressure Creative on Day 2, but he wasn't all that present, and his arguments were basically "this post is scum" over and over again--performative, but lacking in substance. And even if we somehow had a crystal ball that told us you would be the nightkill regardless of what happens, you're the one leading this entire discussion. I'm pretty sure that you could talk us into eliminating Skitter on Day 4 rather than Wheme even if you were the only one convinced.

[Kazyan]

Logically? I can't see a way that Creative isn't scum. His explanation of the town!gambit is missing at least one step--I can't follow his reasoning. Town!Creative would have known there was a chance that his gambit would just lose the entire game in one fell swoop, too, and thus not done it.

Emotionally? Well, I've never been right when scumhunting before, so...

[Kazyan]

Like, the degree of certainty that Creative expressed in SAMCRO being scum is not indicative of the uninformed town mindset.

[Kazyan]

Day phases last a very long time on this site. This is actually on the low end of day phase length, believe it or not.

[Kazyan]

I'm still here and paying attention: I just don't have comments until we hear from Skitter.

[Kazyan]

I could see Wheme trying to pocket me. He gave me that NAI defense a while back, but this would be a pretty weak/subtle way of doing it, if so.

[Kazyan]

Re: Andante kill: I was taking some heat yesterday, so it's totally possible that Wheme (or Skitter?) shot Andante in order to set me up. You said that most people didn't do nightkill analysis like you do, so framing someone with a nightkill would be more viable with you around. They couldn't have known that everyone would finally figure out that I'm town after the SAMCRO flip.

[Kazyan]

In the posts the Skitter has highlighted, I do think it's +town for Whemestar, but the waffling is pretty laconic. I notice that it doesn't have the same emotional intensity as "am I being trolled", but I have no idea what that means. Thoughts?

Sorry for not being as 100% here right now as you two; I've just got a whole bunch of other non-Mafia tabs open.

[Kazyan]

I'll ask Kaz whether Skitter feels town here.

What Skitter is telling us is that, despite everyone agreeing in the miselim, she wants to go through every single interaction and make sure the solve fits. We also know she's not just stalling for time to get a no-elim day, because she explicitly brought up not losing track of Creative. So, yeah, this is town. But again, with Seeds and Skitter being very town, I keep bringing myself back to Whemestar because he's the only other option.

With his being so hard to read and laconic, I get the feeling that his posts are just...kind of random, maybe? That may be why it's so hard to produce a narrative for Whemestar, if he's just reacting in-the-moment. Maybe we can't figure out what his plans are if he doesn't have a plan.

[Kazyan]

*miselim assuming scum!Skitter. See, this is why I don't hyperpost very much; I use imprecise wording.

[Kazyan]

It's good you think she's town. I think trying hard is not very alignment indicative - it would seem more sus for skitter to just show up at night and say "well I think this is basically over let's quick hammer!" than to do what she's doing now.

But I think the reasons I want to TR skitter is that creative brought up the idea he is a mason with her d1, that Creative posted an illegal incomplete ISO when it feels like he could have asked her for one if he was in a mafia chat with her (maybe this is a bit NAI if he just posted without asking), and I think most of all Andante is now confirmed town and she said that Skitter and I were TvT. I think the andante night kill supports the skitter town case as well and I lived for scumming you kaz and skitter, although I had revealed to skitter how I interpret night kills and that technically can be a gambit to get me to TR scum skitter. These seem like real reasons to me.

I'll think about it more tomorrow.

Regarding paragraph 1, that seems kinda WIFOMy? I still don't know how to evaluate that. It seems within Skitter's scumrange.

Regarding paragraph 2, I do think that's a valid +town argument for Skitter. Creative could have posted without asking, since he had a high post volume, but merely eliminating that asking-of possibility make Skitter townier from a Bayesian probability perspective.

Regarding paragraph 3, good night.

[Kazyan]

So my Q: to skitter and even Kaz can way in too. You felt that SAMCRO’s confidence/bravado was fake. What do you feel about Whemestar’s confidence in 537 or 577? Does that feel like real confidence to you. Because according to whemestar one of the principal reasons is 562 because he thinks Creative softed PR in 94. Does 94 even read like a PR soft to you? Does it even feel genuine that wheme made this PR read based on this post? I’ll be honest that post seems like the random ramblings of a VT. What kind of tracker says “hey - maybe I’m a mason LOL.” You even said yourself in a prior post that the breadcrumb wasn’t even there. Does wheme seem genuine in making this PR read or does it seemed planned to you.

Wheme's confidence reeks of being informed, but I could honestly see those posts being made by a townie. NAI, I guess?

Regarding PR softing...if just bringing up the possibility of power roles existing is something that you can consider breadcrumbing, then we'd all go stark raving mad from any discussion of strategy. "Someone mentioned the possiblity of masons in a game where masons are well-understood to be a possiblity, ergo masons in this game!" is...a position that I'm not even willing to take seriously.

[Kazyan]

idk I guess it could be townie from the "you didn't listen to me and now you're going to lose" perspective

Oh I thought this comment was about creative on initial read lol. rip.

Yeah, it's about Whemestar; Creative is just doing what any caught scum would do IMO.

Regarding paragraph 3, good night.

Kaz, I'll be honest it scared me a little when you didn't reassure me you were town yesterday in this quote lol. But it's okay, I will review you logs tomorow. Good night.

If you need to be reassured and feel actual fear, you might be too emotionally invested in this game, tbh. After re-reviewing my ISO, you'll have officially analyzed this game to death.

Even newbie games on this site can last for over a month, which is part of why I'm not writing an essay every day about the possibilities here. It may be healthier for you to take this more slowly.

[Kazyan]

You can read this as scum wheme needs the pocket on Kaz at this point because it appears I am too far gone and he's not willing to consider a kaz scum case or rule it out.

If this is town wheme I guess he just makes reads early and then never doubts or double checks things and just rides with it. If he's town though I love when people ask me questions and I get to explain my thoughts. Wheme's responses or just like "94" "no" "im confused i said 94 already what more do you want."

Tbh everyone needs the pocket on me right now. You're probably the nightkill tonight, so the remaining mafia (likely Whemestar) has to pocket me to get a miselim tomorrow, and the town (likely Skitter) has to pocket me to get a correct elimination. Whemestar can't kill me without you putting two and two together, and Whemestar can't kill Skitter because that would destroy his only viable miselim.

[Kazyan]

Oh, sorry. Yeah, that was over-the-line and I apologize. You do you.

[Kazyan]

Yeah, I'm just sitting around now. I've made up my mind about voting Whemestar tomorrow, so I'm waiting until we're ready.

[Kazyan]

If you wanna hammer, I'll do the E-1 here and let you make that decision. VOTE: CreativeName

[Kazyan]

man this feels icky to me

I'm bored.

[Kazyan]

encouraging me to hammer is meh

Hammer him. Do it. Hammer. This is me explicitly telling you, Skitter, without even caring anymore, to please just hammer already, because I want to go back to playing the game. I made my decision 4 and a half days ago, which is the last decision I get to make in this game, and every re-analysis we do just keeps saying "yep, it's Whemestar". But we continue rechecking and re-rechecking. And then we're going to have a night phase that people probably won't agree to shorten, and only

then

will I get to cast my vote for Whemestar (unless there's a clown-universe where he is both town and the nightkill, in which case I have to choose between you and Seeds). That's, what a week of waiting?

Kaz do you have any last minute reads/thoughts you want to post

Besides the above, no.

[Kazyan]

At the moment, my solve is either Creative/Skitter or Creative/Seeds (your review masterposts looked kinda town, but I can see how they'd align with an agenda). That said, this is suddenly a lot of heat that is being pointed at Skitter, so if she flips town, I'm gonna be unhappy with how this narrative was built.

Kaz why werent you thinking about wheme here? Or, alternatively, why is wheme currently more likely than either myself or seeds?

Why Skitter is town:

What Skitter is telling us is that, despite everyone agreeing in the miselim, she wants to go through every single interaction and make sure the solve fits. We also know she's not just stalling for time to get a no-elim day, because she explicitly brought up not losing track of Creative. So, yeah, this is town.

Why Seeds is town:

Seeds is not scum. Pumping out this much analysis, this quickly, as off-the-cuff reactions to people's comments and exhibiting this much depth of thought...it strikes me as almost impossible for scum to fake.

[Kazyan]

You're probably the nightkill tonight, so the remaining mafia (likely Whemestar) has to pocket me to get a miselim tomorrow, and the town (likely Skitter) has to pocket me to get a correct elimination. Whemestar can't kill me without you putting two and two together, and Whemestar can't kill Skitter because that would destroy his only viable miselim.

Why so you think you hold hammer tomorrow

I do think I'm the deciding vote tomorrow, yeah.

[Kazyan]

O hai.

Also: why so you suddenly feel a lot better about your scumhunting ability here? I noticed as i'm reading your that you have a consistent underlying of creative that you never really push - you vote him, sure, but you hop off shortly thereafter. You did this about three times up until this point, voting him without really pushing him or trying to gain traction, and shortly thereafter hopping off

Reading now this pattern looks partner-y to me: lightly pushing a buddy, but never to a flip

And since just before the above quote creative claimed pr, and you'd been saying for most of the game up until this ppint that you scumread him, i donf follow why you're now saying you feel good abt your scumhunting ability? If creative's claim had been true, you would have been wrong to scumread him, no?

I wrote a wall about this. What you see as failure to commit to bussing a buddy is really me being indecisive between two options, Creative and SAMCRO. (This excludes the initial vote-and-unvote from me breaking RVS. I don't know what to tell you about that one, besides that it's what it looks like on face value: I caught a whiff of LAMIST, but then Creative adjusted his tone, so I started doing other things.)

I get the sinking feeling that if we're narrowing down the suspect pool to Skitter and Whemestar, I'm going to wake up tomorrow with you dead and the whole game will come down to whether I'm right about Whemestar. I know I got Creative right so I

should

have this, but I'm scared

Where did this read scumread even come from? It almost popped out of nowhere midday2

It came from here, when I reviewed all of the pairings and found that Whemestar was a possibility based on the events of the game. There are several posts of mine after that, and before the one you're quoting, in which I bring up Whemestar. I thought I shared my thought process on that.

Both of the answers you're demanding of me are in the ISO you reviewed, in close proximity to the things you're claiming don't make sense. This leads me to believe you don't believe the explanations I've given and want me to give new ones, which is a bummer, because I'm not going to bother with a lie that better fits a narrative when I've already told the truth.

Are there other questions for me to answer?

[Kazyan]

all I gotta say is means scum doesn’t want creativentonfakenclaim tracker and I don’t grt why you would ever think we are partners I’ve scumread him all game and now that I know I’m right I’m so confident in my rewds but it kind of tilts me that I’m getting scum read for them.

I really don’t know how scum anymore I’m just confident in creative scum

Also, this is scum. Let's be real, here: if you're asked to choose between Skitter, Seeds, and Kazyan as scum, but say you have "no idea", you're not coming at this from a town perspective.

Skitter is confirmed town. She is the only one holding up the Let's Just Kill Whemestar push, and Creative is at E-1. Scum!Skitter's win condition requires two posts, here: make up some crap about being convinced by Seeds's arguments, hammer Creative, nightkill Kazyan (or Seeds; doesn't matter which), and in Day 4, just wait for Seeds (or Kazyan) to vote town!Whemestar like they say they're going to do, followed by hammering. Scum!Skitter has a button labeled "press to win game" and is not pressing it. Scum!Skitter does not exist.

Seeds, meanwhile, is almost certainly town due to hyper-solving, but I didn't have to tell you that.

If Whemestar were actually town, he would have realized at least one of those things. One is cerebral, and one you can determine intuitively. But he knows neither--because he's just floundering scum.

[Kazyan]

Skitter is confirmed town. She is the only one holding up the Let's Just Kill Whemestar push, and Creative is at E-1. Scum!Skitter's win condition requires two posts, here: make up some crap about being convinced by Seeds's arguments, hammer Creative, nightkill Kazyan (or Seeds; doesn't matter which), and in Day 4, just wait for Seeds (or Kazyan) to vote town!Whemestar like they say they're going to do, followed by hammering. Scum!Skitter has a button labeled "press to win game" and is not pressing it. Scum!Skitter does not exist.

While I'm at it, this actually applies to Scum!Seeds and Scum!Kazyan, too.

If Seeds is scum, Creative could self-hammer, and then Seeds could shoot Skitter and win the game with me via eliminating town!Whemestar.

If Kazyan is scum, Creative could self-hammer, and then I could shoot Skitter and win the game with Seeds via eliminating town!Whemestar.

See? But this makes no sense for a Whemestar partner: Creative and Whemestar would want this to run as long as possible in order to have as much time for doubt as possible. And it's

working

. The only possible partner that makes sense with the lack of a self-hammer is, in fact, Whemestar. Q.E.D.. Game solved. Hammer him already.

[Kazyan]

If I have to make a single extra post in this game that isn't just a naked Whemestar vote on Day 4, I'm going to be annoyed.

[Kazyan]

If I have to make a single extra post in this game that isn't just a naked Whemestar vote on Day 4, I'm going to be annoyed.

I have no idea why you would take this attitude as town you should be willing to talk to you TRs and try to get them to vote the way you think is correct.

This

I

What? Seriously? I just saw Skitter question me on answers that were right there in my ISO, adjacent to the things she was questioning me about, and then you continue speculating about me as Mafia when I just gave you a game-mechanical reason that it has to be Whemestar. To be blunt, why should I continue talking to my townreads if they're not going to read my posts? Why should I bother filling out the forms in triplicate when I've already filled out the same forms with the same content twice before?

I won't be entertaining any further questions on this. Make a decision or don't.

[Kazyan]

The gambit won't tell you anything tbh. As town, I want to hammer scum (and I'm confident in my logic), and as scum, I would want to hammer town.

[Kazyan]

♫ There's a starman waiting in the sky
He'd like to come and meet us
But he thinks he'd blow our minds
There's a starman waiting in the sky
He's told us not to blow it
'Cause he knows it's all worthwhile ♫

[Kazyan]

Skitter, you had me scared when you kept floating the idea of Creative as town. Accepting Creative as town would have made us lose, and I was cutting my options pretty close.

I still think my scumgame needs work--we only won because of a lucky shot on Night 1 and Creative's claim. But overall, it was cool.

[Kazyan]

Seeds, you were excellent. We could not have won if you were here from the beginning, period.

[Kazyan]

One thing that I don't think I mentioned in the scum PT is the final time I waffled away from Creative. When he claimed--and after Whemestar talked me out of counterclaiming--I knew that we had to take Creative's side and eliminate SAMCRO, even if it meant both scum being on the wagon. Ergo, I pretended to believe the tracker claim. I really was being shady.

Regarding the forum not being for you, Seeds, it's totally understandable. The day phases here are longer than my preference, too.

[Kazyan]

Whemestar was a good partner. He listened to recommendations, he pushed Creative into making that claim, he saved my bacon from Andante, and he let me spend the entirety of Day 3 bussing him.