Mini Normal 2199: Baseball (Over)

[UNOwen]

Hello everyone.

VOTE: Jim Hawkins

[UNOwen]

Want to hear from Owen

Always a good sign.

[UNOwen]

UNVOTE: Jim Hawkins
VOTE: mozamis

So scum in the rest.
I'll keep my vote on Zulfy for now, see how he responds to the pressure.
But let's remain vigilant to the very likely fact that scum haven't posted/have barely posted yet.

How does an empty vote add pressure?

[UNOwen]

I like my vote, don't like the pivot from mozamis.

I'm TRing Elsa, Zulfy, & Kitty

What's the Kitty townread about?

[UNOwen]

The declaring that RVS was over post was towny imo

Fair enough. Why were you voting Norwegian?

[UNOwen]

Dynamics

Fair enough.

Trust:
DkKoba
Zulfy
flow trap

Dunno:
esotericzoomer
Rathe
Artemiana
Elsa
Not_Mafia

Don't Trust:
mozamis
Jim Hawkins
KittyTacky

[UNOwen]

@DkKoba - How close am I?

[UNOwen]

Koba skips question, so sad.

norwegian?

Dunno.

[UNOwen]

why don't we get some more votes on UNowen?
I refuse to be lured to his desert island

Invitations to obscure islands should always be accepted, nothing bad can come from them.

[UNOwen]

Q's for Kitty:
- Why are you on my don't trust list?
- Why am I on your town list?

[UNOwen]

How are they supposed to answer this?

Maybe it would be better worded as why he thinks he's on my don't trust list (though that's a fairly obvious interpretation).

[UNOwen]

If I shaded you for no reason, would you think that was a town thing to do?

[UNOwen]

Would I? No, because that isn't a town thing to do. Presumably you'd agree?

[UNOwen]

So the point of the question is that I said I didn't trust Kitty without explanation, but still made it into his town group. So I assume he thinks there was a reason.

[UNOwen]

So the point of the question is that I said I didn't trust Kitty without explanation, but still made it into his town group. So I assume he thinks there was a reason.

Reads aren't mutual?

Reads don't have to be mutual, though usually I have difficulty trusting someone if I don't have a clue what their line of thought looks like.

N_M was trolling but I do think that most town players (especially new ones) will take a skeptical view of anyone who shades them for no reason, not call them town after only nine posts. Considering that Kitty didn't agree with me about Jim and moz either, I can't understand why he would trust me from that. Something similar happened the last game I played, where I pushed someone expecting to be suspected for my approach but instead received town read that I couldn't understand. And indeed in the end they turned out to be scum.

[UNOwen]

so can someone who isnt not_mafia run me through the mozamis wagon?

Initial posts looked off, pressure zulfy but already setting up a switch of focus to low content players. There's something incoherent about that, you can hardly pressure someone if you're already announcing you're not likely to keep the vote there. Then the reaction to his wagon was to immediately attempt to redirect attention to low/no content slots, which to me was a knee-jerk response to pressure. The latest switch to the Jim wagon is more of the same, though admittedly I'm now wondering if a player as experienced as moz would be this blatantly opportunistic if they were actually scum.

[UNOwen]

You might distrust me because I am slightly inactive I suppose. I have been a bit busy as of recent, I want to post more later though. That's the only reason I can think of. The rest of your posts seemed townie.

Inactivity wasn't the reason, it was the trailing of a reads list which bothered me. The thread at that point was very fluffy, it's unlikely that any reads you could have would be involved. Announcing you were going to put together a reads list in advance seemed like the kind of thing newbie scum that was concerned about appearing to contribute might do. As for the town read: which posts and how?

[UNOwen]

@Jim - did you have a similar difficulty getting involved in your previous games?

[UNOwen]

I don't think moz is taking the easy path because it's the easy path, I can get where they are coming from when they say a lot of the active side seems town

In general I think assuming scum aren't capable of playing active and well is a bad and scummy approach, though some town do take it. My biggest issue is that moz's focus went from this:

To remind myself of the names, scum in:
Esoter
Arte
Kittytacky
Rathe
UNowen
Zulfy
JImhawkins
Yyota

to this:

Since gut/experience is telling me scum is most likely in the lurkers/semi lurkers, scum team is probably in:
Rathe, Unowen,Jimhawkins, Yyota.
Seems harsh to hunt yyota withut him posting. So we would be wise to focus on those three. And since there is a mini wagon on UNowen, choo choo!

VOTE: UNowen

After he got some votes. There was an explanation for zoomer being removed but otherwise it's gone from a list with some ambition to sort through a scum pool, to a list of just as Rathe pointed out the easiest slots to target in the game. I haven't seen moz making an effort to sort through this pool, so it looks to be just driven by convenience.

[UNOwen]

Yo Kitty, I believe you missed my question.

Yes, and I got wagoned day1 as well. Granted, the wagon ended up providing a lot of good info.

What are your current opinions on the game?

[UNOwen]

Yeah I missed it. My current opinions are that town seems somewhat competent, trolling aside. Elsa and Artemiana are my two main sus, I'm more inclined to hang Arte though. Anything more? Well we can't really speculate on the setup until someone dies. Can't think of much more. Unsure who the third scum could be.

Thanks, but that question was for Jim. I'd like you to answer 413.

[UNOwen]

There was a ton of weird but friendly banter for the first few pages, and then everyone made up their minds to start wagoning the remaining folks they didn't know. I'm a little frustrated that the people who have asked me to post more are now like, "no, not like that. you're still scum."

Possibly because you keep posting like this. Have you played with Elsa before? Your first post was pretty assertive with your read, where did that energy go?

[UNOwen]

UNVOTE: mozamis

[UNOwen]

UNVOTE: mozamis

???

Might be tunneled. The interaction with N_M seemed genuine, I think that scum probably just seethes in the pt instead of advocating a policy execution there.

[UNOwen]

VOTE: KittyTacky

I believe Kitty when he says he isn't an alt, it's not unlikely that someone who has familiarized themselves with the mafia wiki before making an account would appear more experienced than they actually are. And making an account years ago, flaking almost immediately and then returning to be accused of lying about my experience happened to me (although I was scum in that case so while I wasn't lying maybe Arte has a point about posturing).

But tbh that's the reason I suspect him, his posts feel very artificial to me as though he's read a "how to fool town" guide and he's sticking to it rigidly. It seems unnatural. Like I think if Kitty genuinely has a gut scum read on Elsa they challenge moz about it in 489 instead of just saying that he's off the wagon. And I really don't see how he got a town read on me from my first nine posts. Sure I gave a read list but he disagreed with all my suspicions and I think someone who has been reading mafia games for months would know that scum faking a read list without giving reasoning is completely possible.

[UNOwen]

KittyTacky - But I can see why Arte is tunneling....Kitty got caught trying to be both newb and seasoned, which is confusing and a minus. They give reads and opinions, which is a plus. But that comment about having an extra vote waiting in the wings to hammer was super sus.

VOTE: Kitty They are all over the place and contradicting themselves in their own explanations.

I'd guess this is scum realising he's sinking and getting in some distancing, because there's no reason Jim couldn't have made comments like these at any other time previously.

[UNOwen]

N_M is a town lean and appears to be giving the game thought even though we're mostly seeing joking. Not interested in any policy execution.

[UNOwen]

Well, I'd rather go Jim then

I'm down to wagon Jim, but want to see how Kitty responds to my vote.

[UNOwen]

Objection! It was a tonal read. I consider myself pretty decent at those.

What's your Jim read?

UNVOTE: KittyTacky
VOTE: Jim Hawkins

[UNOwen]

Who on my wagon do you think might actually be scum?

Shouldn't you be asking yourself this question?

[UNOwen]

@Elsa - why are you voting Anya?
@Norwegian - why are you voting Rathe?

[UNOwen]

I don't really see the argument against Anya, pushing for an execution quickly only has a scum motive if scum is vulnerable to a deadline scramble. But considering the game state it looks like if that happened Jim would have been the compromise anyway, so why would Anya!scum feel pressure?

[UNOwen]

But considering the game state it looks like if that happened Jim would have been the compromise anyway, so why would Anya!scum feel pressure?

Anya's posting on these pages feels very scummy. It reads to me as scum trying to tone down suspicion on them and secure a mislim.

Ehh. I see she's being defensive, but from an aggressive player I'm not sure how AI that is. The second point is what I don't get, we were meandering towards a Jim execution - how does that make scum panic if he's town?

[UNOwen]

Jim execution is fine by me, I wasn't going to be changing my vote.

[UNOwen]

Arte is a strange kill.

I feel like if he was scum he would gladly welcome this fight between me/Anya and support one side over the other.

What's the logic here?

[UNOwen]

Guess there might be one more outside this IG. But I sus Elsa, Norwe, Moz currently. It's past midnight here, will post more tomorrow.

Why the Moz/Norwegian suspicion?

[UNOwen]

look at how norwegian didn't even vote me until dkkoba did and he knew for sure there was support

at first he was hesitant probably because flow said to leave us two for today and he didn't want to commit

Think this is a fair point and what I was getting at with the question he ignored. I don't see the logic of saying that scum would "gladly welcome" the Anya/Norwegian fight while also believing in Anya!scum.

[UNOwen]

I was considering that from a perspective of Flow not being a likely partner to Anya.

So you're saying that you think a scum partner for Anya would be playing into the conflict between you two as the focus today instead of distracting from it?

[UNOwen]

That is what it would mean, yes.
Do you have reasons to suspect Flow Trap would be scum distancing here?

No I think flow trap is town regardless of Anya's alignment.
My issue was that "gladly welcome" sounded like you were describing scum looking at a TvT conflict, not a SvT conflict.

[UNOwen]

do people thinking this conflict is Town v wolf actually mean you'll flip Norwegian tomorrow?

Where is your confidence that Norwegian is scum coming from?

[UNOwen]

Anya what's your read on Kitty?

[UNOwen]

Thanks.

Sometimes town players can talk themselves into tunnels but having read back I agree with Norwegian that you're coming from a place of deciding to tunnel him, there hasn't been any interest in attempting to see him as anything other than scum. The read escalates from "most suspicious reaction to my vote" (which didn't sound like a very strong suspicion) to "kill Norwegian" because he dismissed your initial push without comment. But I think this is consistent with him thinking your aggression was NAI so not very compellingly scummy. Most of the other points you mentioned came after you were already pushing for his execution so don't stand up as an explanation for your certainty.

[UNOwen]

owen hasnt had an agenda all game. hence scum. could they blend anymore lol

Compared to your agenda of killing town?
VOTE: mozamis

[UNOwen]

Norwe - the late Arte already explained my reasons

You agree with Arte's meta explanation for Norwegian scum?

[UNOwen]

W

[UNOwen]

Would vote Anya over Norwegian but I don't find the cases against either very strong. Anya is at least being slightly disingenuous about her approach to Norwegian (scum read confidence was overstated, then became more confident because Norwegian took her at her word for the strength of the read which sounds like circular logic). I'm not convinced this necessarily means anything from an aggressive player though.

Moz is just scum chancing it.

[UNOwen]

Actually a pretty good point.
How can you "agree" to a meta scum read?
(And how would Kitty even know if Artemisia’s meta read is accurate, and much more importantly. Who they even are?

You see? This is the helpful content from me that Kitty was talking about.

[UNOwen]

Kitty: Arte explained why I suspect Norwegian
Me: Arte's reasoning was meta?
Kitty: I swear there were non-meta things
Kitty: also I'm roleblocker

Claim is interesting but doesn't explain why Kitty is voting Norwegian. It's fine if he misremembered but I'd still like to know what the non-meta point was which he thought Arte had explained, because otherwise what is the Norwegian suspicion about?

[UNOwen]

see the way you're posting right now Owen feels like you're a presenter putting on a show for the audience

why wouldn't you just ask Norwegian that directly instead of talk about him like he's some distant actor?

Do you mean Kitty? I already asked him directly.

[UNOwen]

Elsa isn't a town read but more because I trust other players more than because I think he's done anything suspicious. He plays like a bystander but when he posts there's nothing I take issue with. I'm presuming he'll take a more proactive role as the game progresses and get easier to read then. Re: the Jim "hammer". I disagree with Koba that it was scummy. Maybe from their perspective where they were confident Jim was town, but as far as I was concerned Jim had a pretty decent chance of flipping scum and was going to be the inevitable compromise anyway. Putting some urgency into the game isn't a bad thing.

Moz is worthy of votes.

[UNOwen]

why'd you like Owen again?

Better question is why you don't?

[UNOwen]

Think I misremembered then?

Yes probably. But what were

your

reasons for suspecting Norwegian?

[UNOwen]

Elsa is only at four votes by my count, so we aren't getting a flip anytime soon.

[UNOwen]

Oh right. Well if that was a thing then I don't think it would have fooled anyone.

[UNOwen]

VOTE: Elsa Jay

Elsa wagon is now at five votes.

[UNOwen]

Day 3 of waiting for Kitty to explain why he suspects Norwegian.

[UNOwen]

I trust Anya and her claim.
I believe Elsa's claim but don't trust him.

UNVOTE: Elsa
VOTE: mozamis

[UNOwen]

I think moz is scum, but idk about Norwegian.

[UNOwen]

Sorry I missed this.

Norwe is just... oddly scummy to me. Their posts seem like filler IMHO to throw off suspicion. I'm bad at objective reads, I'm more of a tonal guy.

Thanks.
My current theory of the game is that your earlier read list was bang on and that the solve is just moz/Elsa/Norwegian.

[UNOwen]

No thanks to NotMaf putting me there. You also would've hammered me if I didn't kindly ask Kitty to unvote me to be safe.

Pretty sure I deserve the credit for putting you at E-1.

Don't agree at all with this Anya push from N_M/Norwegian.

[UNOwen]

You don't see the difference between a role that find VTs and a role that finds PRs?

How is this a meaningful distinction?

[UNOwen]

They both do the same thing though?

[UNOwen]

I thought powerless goons counted as vanillas? So it would check a plain goon as a vanilla, making it unreliable.

I'm not sure which role you are referring to here, but that's the point. A vanilla cop finds PRs not alignments and it sounds like Anya's role does the same thing in a roundabout way, so N_M's argument that it has to be a scum role doesn't make sense.

[UNOwen]

Second time N_M has hammered while I'm typing a post.

[UNOwen]

It's good though, I think this is a red flip.

Claim situation is looking messy and will need another look tomorrow but I still think the circumstance of Anya's claim makes her the most likely to be town.

[UNOwen]

Why invite a potential 1v1 with Elsa though? Even if she guessed a different modifier she couldn't have known that Elsa wouldn't take the view that there's only one true MD.

[UNOwen]

Mass claim is the way to go at this point. I propose zoomer starts.

There goes another PR... this game is a PR-claim-and-death-fest.

Seems like it's only the PRs who don't claim that are dying.

[UNOwen]

I don't trust Elsa but agree with flow trap, we should not be rushing things today.

[UNOwen]

I think Anya should decide who claims next btw.

[UNOwen]

Why.

She's PR cop.

[UNOwen]

yes and they should be announcing their result on me - i claimed in a specific way for a reason to test claims

Oh yeah she probably should have targeted you then, or will need to explain why she didn't.

[UNOwen]

Elsa might be scum vanilla cop, but I'm confident he has the role he's claiming. Nothing about his play would make sense otherwise.

[UNOwen]

VOTE: unown

lets try this rq - wanna explain why you're so under the radar?

It's just how I roll. Though on this day specifically I wanted to let the claims play out before anything else.

Elsa/Norwegian/zoomer was my theory heading into today and it's still my theory now but I'm not sure yet if I actually believe it or if I'm just working backwards from Elsa scum. The only thing that's changed between day 2 and now is that I've replaced moz with zoomer, which doesn't feel like a particularly good sign.

[UNOwen]

Koba's VT claim was expected. Don't think the plan would have yielded much even if it worked, don't think it's even remotely AI. There will need to be a much better justification for them being scum than that, because to me their motivation to solve is far higher and more scattershot than any scum would bother pretending.

[UNOwen]

flow trap claims next.

[UNOwen]

How was it expected? I really don't see the point in doing all of that hoobla to confirm their supposed PR role just to reveal surprise, they were VT all along.

Was expected by me at least. Too many PR claims in play, if Koba was an investigative I'd have expected them to more strongly push to solve Elsa/Anya yesterday. I agree there's not much point to the gambit but the most reasonable justification is that they were VT bluffing to test the claims, because otherwise the plan would be even more pointless.

[UNOwen]

DK's softclaim counts as a claim by the way.

I blocked DK. They implied they'd be able to confirm it.

N2: RBing a non-claimer who I read as a VT.

:/

[UNOwen]

Would like Elsa to explain why he believes N_M is unlikely to be a goon.

[UNOwen]

Yeah if either of the two is scum here the other goes next.

Kitty is sus and would be my top pick for scum if we're in an Elsa town world, but I really don't see Koba scum.

[UNOwen]

I literally said I ignore PR claims?

When?

[UNOwen]

im not focusing on who claimed what unless it egregiously doesnt fit in the setup

Sure, I was just explaining why I thought you were bluffing. If you said this during day 2 and I missed it then I guess my reasoning was wrong, but the conclusion that your gambit isn't AI stays the same.

[UNOwen]

"They" was referring to whatever other role would be able to confirm. Sorry if this was ambiguous.

So 2008 was intended to read: "I blocked DK. They implied 'someone else' would be able to confirm it.".

[UNOwen]

Who've you been visiting flow trap?

[UNOwen]

Would like Elsa to explain why he believes N_M is unlikely to be a goon.

[UNOwen]

? Because when he plays it's not to far off of his trolly meta.

Is this a meta town read?

If you've listened to me before I said I think scum has 2 PR and 1 goon. Granted after tonight they probably have all the info they need but for atleast the first 2 nights the goon probably did the kill while the other 2 investigated the town.

This means I don't think there's multitask on by the way. But if a scum flips with that then I'll reconsider my reads on you and NotMaf.

Yeah this is logical if we assume that one scum can't use night action and kill (I guess that's what you mean by multitask), but why are we assuming that?

[UNOwen]

Well global multitask on is non-normal still so they have to have the modifier itself. And while normally I think they would have it in this case with me around along with a Personal Tracker being unable to track a Mafia kill it's safe to say they don't got it.

Personal tracker being able to track standard mafia night action but not kill from same player seems plausible to me? Even then though, since neither you or Anya were blocked/killed if you are town scum must've believed they could play around your night actions. So a mafia PR killing so that the goon gets a chance at being "cleared" would make sense (especially since it was clear we were heading for a massclaim anyway). Setup speculation is not something I'm great at so maybe this is obvious but it seems like you're stacking too many assumptions to be confident.

Why did you out that you were a PR in the first place?

[UNOwen]

Well first it was because everyone was on you Owen.

They weren't though? The only player actually pushing me as scum was mozamis, and he wasn't even voting me. It's good to defend someone you have a clear on but I didn't think I was even close to being in danger when you intervened.

[UNOwen]

It was more a preventing measure to also focus solving on other slots. Then I just outted and helped me in directing the game.

Besides, for some reason after I did that Kitty claimed Roleblocker and pushed me up. So yeah I dunno what else I would've done there but I think I made the right call.

Wouldn't it have been helpful to solving to allow a wagon to potentially form on me and see how other players interact with it? Then you'd only need to out if it looked like I was actually going to be executed.

[UNOwen]

This is a reasonable way to defend someone you have a clear on without outing:

I wanna say Moz but that's me playing favorites. Owen so far doesn't seem to have an agenda so I'll trust him for now.

This is a claim:

Also, I encourage we go for someone besides Owen today. Call it a hunch.

There were no votes against me at the time of the second post, it doesn't make sense for Elsa to out. One explanation is that it had less to do with removing me from the suspect pool and more to do with these posts from flow trap:

Spoiler:

"The" tracker or "a" tracker?

I actually have reason to believe Elsa is town (albeit conditional), but I can't say yet

Is it too early for Elsa to Claim?

So Elsa thought flow trap had a track result against him, and decided that by hinting at a result he could both gain flow traps trust and position himself as an ambiguous town PR going forward. I think town Elsa is more likely to continue to keep his PR hidden until it's actually necessary to claim.

But then I might just be completely wrong and making connections that don't exist. That is possible.

[UNOwen]

If I thought Flow was a tracker who tracked me then I wouldn't have worried at all cuz they only would've seen me visit you? I'd have no reason to panic.

It's more along the fact after Flow called me out for staying quiet that I got more proactive in my plays.

Wouldn't mean that you panicked, just that you saw they were pressing for a claim and used it as an opportunity to position yourself better.

[UNOwen]

I'm content with Norwegian being the execution today.

[UNOwen]

:/

[UNOwen]

Not much happening today so far.

Pretty settled now on Elsa/Norwegian/zoomer. Maybe N_M instead of zoomer, but Elsa/Norwegian scum clears everyone else I think. Feels like a good solve.

[UNOwen]

Hopefully if eso is town their replacement can give us a fresh perspective from their slot.

Yeah, that slot is the shakiest so it will be useful to see how the replacement approaches things.

Eso is shifty to me but like. Town shifty. He doesn't read to me like scum.

It's mainly PoE. Elsa/flow didn't look coordinated, Norwegian/Anya makes no sense, Koba is a town read regardless and I doubt you bus both your partners this hard.

That leaves N_M and zoomer. Between them I tend to think that the N_M/Norwegian push against Anya was a little too blatant for them both to be scum and there are a few things in the zoomer/Elsa dynamic which makes me think they're aligned. Though I guess with how little content there has been from N_M it wouldn't be a surprise if there aren't obvious links to potential scum partners.

Which is assuming Elsa/Norwegian are both scum of course but that feels pretty safe now.

[UNOwen]

ow
I'm fine with executing Norwegian before we've got a replacement, but don't mind waiting either. It doesn't make much difference.

[UNOwen]

Thanks for replacing in samantha.

its valiant that you really want to save norwee - but your world view coming into this game is so messed up and completely ignored the points made against norwee that i can't trust it

Yup.

[UNOwen]

gg all.
Shame things went wonky towards the end, but I don't think scum were ever going to win once Norwegian flipped anyway (tbh I was surprised Elsa made it past day 4).

+1 to the thanks for wrapping it up implosion.