Open 808: The Council Has Spoken

[Lukewarm]

Hello everyone

I'm gonna start working my way through the backlog, and then try to put some update post on where I'm feeling about the game state as I work through.

[Lukewarm]

I have never replaced into a game before, so not sure the best way to post as I read through. I decided on making periodic posts as I read through the game, with my reads at that point in the game. These reads will likely change as I get closer to being caught up, and even then I won't have done any ISOs (did not realize how much work replacing in was )

Here is my reads from Start of Game, to Day 1 council being formed (page 18). I had a note pad open as I scrolled through, and here are my notes next to each players names

T-Bone
Post 146 - I do not like this from a strategic standpoint. This feels like a bad strategy for town, but a good strategy for Mafia. But I don't think Mafia would blatantly say that lol. Null (maybe slight town) read
Generally slightly mixed feelings for them moving forward. They seem to be harping on Mozamis for a reason I don't agree with (like he seemed mad that they asked for his reads?), but that could stand out to me because this is my slot haha. Then they pressure Enchant pretty hard into giving out his reads, which has a town feel to it.
Currently at very slight town Lean

Almost50
Post 39 - this feels like a post that is purposefully trying to throw suspicion on someone who is clearly memeing mafia. Scum lean
Post 39 - This whole post felt very forced. The heeing and hawing, building up to a read list - all in the same post. Do not like.
Currently Scum Lean

Enchant
Post 39 Strong effort to come up with a winning strategy, and to convince other people to follow it. Town Lean
Post 324 Page 13, no reads...
Post 326 And here they are lol
I do not like that he was so hesitant to give out his reads, but he gives a decent reason behind it (Post412), and over all seems to be activly trying to keep town working towards a winning strategy
Currently Town Lean

Yessiree
The only note I jotted down for him is "bad vibes" lol
I will have to look at him closer moving forward / when I start doing ISOs

Artemiana
I did not write down the specific post, but: good vibes combating, imo, faulty logic.
Followed by: less good vibes
And finally: Good vibes are back.
Town lean

Nono
I got all the way to the council forming, without taking a single note on them. That is not a good look tbh
Scum lean

Mozamis
I was generally ignoring any analysis on my own slot, because I know I am town, but Post 138 has them confidently clearing two players that I have listed as scum leans currently

Battle Mage
After reading the set up, I thought the town should be careful with their heal votes, then he not only advocates for people to start putting votes out there, but he also scum reads people for being hesitant. I made a note of this, and then it kept coming up. Scum lean
Post 69 starts a lot of comments about a supposed scumslip, that does not look like a scum slip to me at all. When I am writing posts to other players, trying to help them see something from a new PoV , I always approach it as if they are town otherwise, I would start a lot of posts with "if you are town, then___". I have felt like that part can be assumed lol. They really doubled down on this too, bringing it up multiple times. Scum lean
I got to this point with a scum lean on them, but every single player (including my slot) town read them. I will have to give them a second look as I go forward and when I ISO them

Raya
Posts 114 and 119, Actively trying to optimize the council mechanic. town lean
Lots of good vibes reading through, but she has an exchange with Enchant that irked me a bit. Specifically the back and forth over Enchants read on Yessiree starting with Enchant post 326.
Mostly good vibes, but one exchange I did not like, still leaves them with a small town lean

I have more notes on interactions, but this is what made it to my reads notes.

Jumping back in, wish me luck!

[Lukewarm]

Hmm. formatting is not as clear as I would have liked. Next posts will add bullet points, so that the lines dont run together.

[Lukewarm]

I planned on working through to the end of Day 2, but I just gotta take a break. Here are my notes on the End of Day 1. I will post my Day 2 analysis once I manage to reach the end of the day.

We voted out scum day 1! That definitely makes a town win easier.

So looking back over Almost50's ISO:

• He started his heal vote as: [Moz, T-Bone, Almost 50]
  
• When he was told that he should not vote for himself, and changed it to [Moz, T-Bone, Yessiree] and held that stance for the entire rest of the day.
  
• When the council was almost settled, he pushed to get either Battle Mage or Atremiana off of the council, and replaced with one of his three.
  
• I think it is safe to assume he wanted a scum on the Council, so I feel like we should all be suspicious of Moz (me lol), Tbone, Yessiree, and this move hard skews both Artemiana and Battle mage as town imo

Almost50's Wagon

• Raya was the first person to vote Almost50, and is wishy washy on the vote, even says that Almost50 isnt her perfered vote. This vote is early enough that she would not have a reason to think it would pass especially with her not making a good case against him
  
• Nono, same as Raya. Early on the wagon, and very noncommittal to the read.
  
• Artemiana I almost want to give her full credit for getting Almost50 voted out, she build the case and convinced others to vote against him. Strong Town lean for that
  
• BattleMage put almost 50 at e-1 when there was still time to work towards moving the vote to Nono or Yessiree. A vote on either one of them would have tied them with Almost 50, meaning he could have at least tried to save Almost50 with very little effort. Strong town lean for that
  
• Enchant's quick hammer on Almost50, pretty much clears him

Battlemage, Artemiana, Enchant

all pretty much cleared at this point. Almost50 tried to pull both Battlemage and Artemiana off of the council, and then Artemiana and Battlemage were instrumental in getting him voted off. Enchant with the quick hammer

Yessiree, TBone

pretty suspicious are my primary suspects. I am most leaning towards Yessiree as Almost50's partner at this point. because they were the sub in when he had to remove himself, ie his heal votes was [pocket attempt on Moz, pocket attempt on Tbone, Scum] the whole time, it just started as himself, and then he swapped in his partner. It could be TBone, but he would have had to have been pretty ballsy to put both scum in his suggestion originally. So imo, Yessiree>TBone

Looking back over Tbone + Yessiree votes

T-bone never suggested a single council line up that did not include himself, which is not a good look.

Yessiree never voted for any combination at all until after it was established that everyone was going to choose one person other then themselves.

Neither one was on the Almost50 wagon either

Neither one voted for Almost50 to be on the council, but also, neither one voted for a full set up that did not include themselves, and also neither one voted for almost50, the scum reads on this are kind of a tie imo

So final reads at the end of Day 1:

• Battle Mage, Artemiana, Enchant
  
  
  Raya
  Nono
  
  
  Tbone
  Yessiree

[Lukewarm]

Welcome Lukewarm!

Looking forward to the rest of your analysis. Just a quick hint for you. You should check who already flipped to save yourself some work

hmm. I thought it would be good to give people an idea of my read progression throughout, and thought that would be tainted if I already knew the flips.

Maybe it didn't matter, but I am up to page 32 doing this way, so I don't know how much it would save me to switch over at this point.

[Lukewarm]

Okay, Day 2 analysis time!

Spoiler:

• As of post 599, every post I read from Tbon is coming accross as scum tbh. Leaning a bit more towards him over yes atm.
  
• Post 602 interesting arguement, not sure how to take it yet, but making a note to look back here later. / Post 622, raya dismantles the arguement a bit, applying same logic to BM
  
• Post 604, once again, completely disagreeing with my own slot. Almost suggested pulling Arte or BM off of the council before he had any reason to think he was going to be the elim that day. So this "manipulation once I flip red" logic really does not make sense to me
  
• Post 622 Raya looking a bit more town, Tbone definitly lower then Yes imo.
  
• General Comment: There seems to be a lot of talk about the RESULT of Almost50's request, TBone replacing Artemiana, without concidering his full request. See post 424. Almost requests either BM or Artemiana (town points for both, not just Art who actually got removed) and then replace them with one of Moz/Tbone/Yessiree (scum points for all three, not just Tbone)
  
• Post 633 Did not help with any reads, but made me laugh
  
• General Comment on Nono: I am still struggling to get a read on this guy, but his read in post 650 does not feel good to me.
  
• Post 660The level of hubris on this guy
  
• General Comment: I am getting bad vibes from T-Bone again , but I think its the tone of all of this posts, which might come down to personality not alignment. He is inching back up to yessiree.
  
• And then he is turning that perception back around a bit with Post 674
  
• Post 706 I think Battle Mage just clears TBone quite a bit in my mind with this post - "Tbone was advocating for himself to be tracked at one stage" and he was also advocating for there to be no doctor used. If he wanted himself to be tracked, he should have wanted the doctor ability to be used so he would have had some cover. If Tbone is tracked, and the council protected no one, and no one died, then his whole plan would have done nothing to clear himself? So his master plan was to use the council abilities to not clear himself at all?
  
• Post 711 - Still hard leaning towards Yes, but I agree that nono is an option to consider if yes flips town
  
• Post 720 - I am not liking how had BM is doubling down on "T-bone's plan is clearly bad" I can see the pros of not using the doctor ability. But I am also pretty sure BM is town... This might explain some of my earlier scum pings from him, he is just really brash with opinions that I don't agree with lol
  
• General Comment: There is a LOT of back and forth between BM and Tbone. With Raya trying to mediate. Like pages and pages of this. If I am right that Yessiree is scum, this very much played out in his favor.
  
• (Side note, I think not using the doctor ability was the better choice, but I think it was smart to track yessiree. Feels like they both had half the answer, but neither were willing to compromise / see the pros of the other person)
  
• General Comment: If it wasn't for almost50's plays on day 1, I would be very suspicious of Battle Mage, but as is, I think he is very loudly, and confidently, 3rd wolfing)
  
• General Comment: A lot of players appear to be sitting back, and letting the two of them duke it out. Raya and Moz are both chiming in, but there are an awful lot of people not trying to salvage the thread, which is overall beneficial for scum, because they can fade from the forefront of suspicion.
  
• General Comment: I have just had a thought about Almost50's play. I said him suggesting to pull one of BM / Art off of the wagon, but not Raya, is a mildly bad look for Raya tbh, but then them trying to mediate between BM and TBone is a good look. Much to consider if Yessiree ever flips town.
  
• Post 798 Yessiree makes a post that makes it clear that he understands the benefits of no-killing night 1, followed immediately by saying "that never crossed my mind before Day 2 started" Much suspicion.
  
• Post 816 My predecessor with the hot takes. /s
  
• General Comment: Raya has multiple posts saying that Nono and Almost were having too many anti-partner interactions, but everything they quoted was very non-committal. Could easily be read as distancing, because they never try to convince other people to follow their reads. Keeping Nono yellow for now.
  
• Post 877 Do not like this post. Enchant has already said he will hammer tbone before the dead line, but wants more time to talk, and then this feels like yessiree is trying to push enchant into hammering early.
  
• Post 887 Enchant reads my mind

IMO opinion, this was an entire day of TvT bickering, with Yessiree really riding under the Radar, and even getting some town cred for no apparent reason.

• Artemiana, Enchant
  Battle Mage
  
  
  Raya
  Nono
  
  
  Yessiree

[Lukewarm]

Enchant being killed should point to scum on the council. There's no way scum is bold, (or dumb) enough to target a council member when they know neither the tracker nor the doctor target

Unless you are the scum, and you can pretty confidently assume you are not going to be tracked 2 days in a row.

[Lukewarm]

I did my homework and re-read Tbone vs BM, especially #710, and I find BM's reasoning for pushing TBone to be disingenuous. The kill last night also reinforces scum!BM imo.

can you talk me through both points?

It's late for me, so can't type a lot right now. But the gist of it is that your premise for pushing TBone is flawed from the beginning - it started from a misrepresentation of his motivation behind his choice of council actions and you continued down that path. In retrospect I shouldn't have skimmed because I would've caught onto it but I just didn't feel like reading walls at the time

As for the second point, I've already explained above. Killing a council member from outside the council is inconceivable, and since you, Arte, and Enchant were the council last night.

There was none of this coming from Yessiree on Day 2. Seems like he let that tvt arguement result in one town miselim, and then tried to turn it into a second one.

[Lukewarm]

Okay, I am up to date.

Nono is full cleared by the council.
Artemiana and

Battle Mage

T3 are almost full cleared in my mind, given Almost50 trying to get either of them off the council, and then the two of them pushing Almost50 out of the game.


That just leaves me, Yessiree, Raya.

I think Raya is the least suspicious of the 3. They were on the N1 councll, and could have easily gotten a kill in. Then on Day2 they were the only player trying to mediate BM and Tbone, where a scum player could have just sat back and let town tear itself apart.

IMO, everything lines up for Yessiree to be scum. He was not on the Almost50 wagon. There was no kill the night he was tracked. He was 3rd on the TBone wagon, stayed there until it passed, then started Day 2 by immediately saying BattleMage's logic for pushing TBone was bad. He could have safely assumed he was not going to be tracked two days in a row, so a night 2 kill would have been safe for him.

I know that

Moz

I am town, but tbh, it is hard to build a solid case for it. I disagreed with so many of the stances moz took . Light case being, they were the only person other then Raya chiming in during the Battle Mage v Tbone argument, and they kept insisting it was TvT. Scum Moz would have wanted the consensus to end on SvT.


Overall, I think that the best choice would be for us to vote out Yessiree, or if people are more suspicious of me, lets go ahead and vote me out, and then everyone vote Yes tomorrow. I think that the worst possible plan is to let us get to a 1v3 with both me and Yessiree alive, because I would be the easiest target for Scum-Yessiree to push town towards, and Yessiree would be the easiest target for scum-me to push town towards.

VOTE: Yessiree
HEAL: Artemiana, T3, Nono

[Lukewarm]

I don't see why scum yessiree would no kill though. I do agree with most of what you're saying about everything else.

There's multiple pros to no-killing last night.
1 - it makes an even number, which is theoretically pro-scum, by making it harder to get an elimination (5 needed to reach consensus in 8p versus 4 needed in 7p), and also maximizes the elim pool.
2 - it denies the council PR utility. In a no-kill scenario, doctor is useless (no one needed to protect), and tracker can never generate ICs

[Lukewarm]

If you read through the start of day 2, a lot of players mention No-Kill-ing being a good strategy on night 1. Especially for anyone off of Almost50s wagon, because they were the ones likely to be tracked. At then end of Day 1, I would have guessed that either Moz or Yes were being tracked, which would have made a kill from either of us dangerous.

IMO, is it more likely that the mafia no-killed N1, or that on N1 happened to try to kill the same person that the the Council targeted to protect? When the mafia had 7 targets and the Council had 8. Assuming both were shot out randomly, that is a 1.4% chance of them landing on the same target.

And this is why TBone was correct that using the Doctor ability was a bad strategy. People are assuming Yess is town because he did not move when he was tracked, but because the doctor was in place, it does not actually clear him at all.

[Lukewarm]

When the mafia had 7 targets and the Council had 8. Assuming both were shot out randomly, that is a 1.4% chance of them landing on the same target.

hmmmm it has been a while since I was in a statistics course, so I think I did this math wrong. That is the odds that they both targetted exactly BattleMage specifically, not the odds that they both hit the same target overall.

Math is hard, and I don't really want to figure out the right way to calculate that. So I'll update it to:

When the mafia had 7 targets and the Council had 8. Assuming both were shot out randomly,

there is not a great chance

of them landing on the same target.

[Lukewarm]

Lukewarm is the best Elim if we go to night, then it the doc/track thing from N1 can be entertained

I get this tbh. My own way of reading the game up to when I replaced in narrowed it down to either Yessiree or Moz. But I know I am town, so just leaves
Yessiree from my PoV.

I would prefer we eliminate yessiree today, but I am okay with an elimination on me, so long as everyone keeps Yessiree in the forefront of the scum hunt moving forwards. I'm gonna leave my vote on Yessiree until we get a bit closer to the deadline, but will self-hammer if needed for us to avoid a no-elim today.

[Lukewarm]

I still think we should vote mozamis today for strange interactions wih A50.
Unless scum no killed I'm conftown. Nono is track cleared. Arte is very towny
HEAL: T3, nono, Arte

Okay, I am up to date.

Nono is full cleared by the council.
Artemiana and

Battle Mage

T3 are almost full cleared in my mind, given Almost50 trying to get either of them off the council, and then the two of them pushing Almost50 out of the game.


That just leaves me, Yessiree, Raya.

I think Raya is the least suspicious of the 3. They were on the N1 councll, and could have easily gotten a kill in. Then on Day2 they were the only player trying to mediate BM and Tbone, where a scum player could have just sat back and let town tear itself apart.

IMO, everything lines up for Yessiree to be scum. He was not on the Almost50 wagon. There was no kill the night he was tracked. He was 3rd on the TBone wagon, stayed there until it passed, then started Day 2 by immediately saying BattleMage's logic for pushing TBone was bad. He could have safely assumed he was not going to be tracked two days in a row, so a night 2 kill would have been safe for him.

I know that

Moz

I am town, but tbh, it is hard to build a solid case for it. I disagreed with so many of the stances moz took . Light case being, they were the only person other then Raya chiming in during the Battle Mage v Tbone argument, and they kept insisting it was TvT. Scum Moz would have wanted the consensus to end on SvT.


Overall, I think that the best choice would be for us to vote out Yessiree, or if people are more suspicious of me, lets go ahead and vote me out, and then everyone vote Yes tomorrow. I think that the worst possible plan is to let us get to a 1v3 with both me and Yessiree alive, because I would be the easiest target for Scum-Yessiree to push town towards, and Yessiree would be the easiest target for scum-me to push town towards.

VOTE: Yessiree
HEAL: Artemiana, T3, Nono

Well that was one of my original council options and who I wanted elimed the most so I'm happy with that

HEAL: nono, art, T3

If you read through the start of day 2, a lot of players mention No-Kill-ing being a good strategy on night 1. Especially for anyone off of Almost50s wagon, because they were the ones likely to be tracked. At then end of Day 1, I would have guessed that either Moz or Yes were being tracked, which would have made a kill from either of us dangerous.

IMO, is it more likely that the mafia no-killed N1, or that on N1 happened to try to kill the same person that the the Council targeted to protect? When the mafia had 7 targets and the Council had 8. Assuming both were shot out randomly, that is a 1.4% chance of them landing on the same target.

And this is why TBone was correct that using the Doctor ability was a bad strategy. People are assuming Yess is town because he did not move when he was tracked, but because the doctor was in place, it does not actually clear him at all.

Oh, that makes sense. HEAL: T3, nono, arte
UNVOTE: Lukewarm

That's hammer I think.

Wait, is that a hammer? You quoted T3 twice, so it may just be 3 votes, and we need 4 to hammer.

[Lukewarm]

I am going to go through and point a few things I noticed about Yessiree, to leave for posterity assuming I am voted off today:

I think killing T-Bone is... Bad decision. {snip}

you've been charmed by T-Bone's powerful charisma. Strong players will make you feel awful for trying to eliminate them, this much is given, and this is probably what you're going through now

As for your plan, seems ridiculous at first glance, but I get it somewhat after giving it some thought

This is one of Yessiree's final posts of Day 2. Fully convinced that T-Bone is the correct vote, no sign of doubt on BM's logic, and even pressuring other people to hammer the vote

I did my homework and re-read Tbone vs BM, especially #710, and I find BM's reasoning for pushing TBone to be disingenuous. The kill last night also reinforces scum!BM imo.

And then his entrance into day 3. Immediately trying to to capitalize on the BM v TBone discussion to push a scum-BM narrative.

Is it just yessiree and that whole T-Bone and BM thing was actually TvT? And if that's wrong then we just go for BM next. I still think by A50 interaction moz is semi-clear. And Art too.

And what if you're wrong on both me and BM? It's 1:5 now, elimming me + night kill makes it 1:3, which will already be MyLo (...MeLo? MILO?)

Kinda sounds like you want me to be too suspicious/worried to vote you now...

I'm not 100% sure BM is scum, and obviously I know I'm town. So why don't you reconsider this plan of yours for a second.

But then Raya did not bite on the BM=scum line, and suggested instead that we vote Yes today followed by BM tomorrow. And Yessiree changed his tune, and started suggesting a no vote

HEAL: nono, arte, yessiree

VOTE: no lim

[Lukewarm]

I also noticed that he has been trying to steer town away from considering him. Subtly here:

Enchant being killed should point to scum on the council. There's no way scum is bold, (or dumb) enough to target a council member when they know neither the tracker nor the doctor target

By claiming that the scum must be on the council, without a good reason to back it up. Scum must know that they cannot no kill forever, so must weigh the chance that they are going to be tracked. The council obviously knows they are not being tracked, but any player who was scum and not under heavy suspicion at the end of Day 2 would have felt emboldened to kill Night 2.

From my PoV:
Night 1 scum was worried they would be tracked, so they no killed. That would heavily skew towards people no on Almost50's wagon, so Yessiree or Moz. All other players could have been reasonably confident they were not going to be tracked

Night 2 scum did not think they were going to be tracked. Nono seemed to be the consensus on Day 2 that he was most suspicious, most other player could have been reasonably confident they were not going to be tracked. Doubly so for Yessiree, after being tracked N1, I think it was a safe bet he was not going to be tracked two nights in a row.

I still think we should vote mozamis today for strange interactions wih A50.
Unless scum no killed I'm conftown. Nono is track cleared. Arte is very towny
HEAL: T3, nono, Arte

And once people replaced in, he tried to make sure he was getting the town cred from the Night 1 track, even through his track does not actually clear him because no one died.

[Lukewarm]

I like the council I'm on.

I don't think I'll be back before deadline so just in case: VOTE: yessiree

Hmm. If he is not going to be back before the deadline, he probably should have voted for me. That would have given me the ability to self hammer if no one else (outside of artemiana and t3) check in before the dead line :/

Now in order for us to get an elimination today, we are reliant on either other people checking in, or both Artemiana and T3 switching their votes to Yessiree.

[Lukewarm]

That puts Yessiree at e-1

[Lukewarm]

And hello? Why are we elimming? Why are we elimming when there are even number of players? Especially when council isn't even hammered yet?

I am against a no-elim today. Even through we are on an even number, we can go back to an odd number if the mafia no-kills again or if the doctor ability is successful.

I would prefer a miselim on me over a no elim tbh.

[Lukewarm]

I don't understand why luke is pushing me with this much confidence. Like, if you're town, what if you're wrong? Me flipping green here is gonna implicate you, and 2 mislims is gonna cost the game.

I think I have explained my logic pretty clearly, no?

Nono has been track cleared.
I think day 1 nearly full clears Artemeiana and

BattleMage

T3.
So from my PoV, that just leaves you or Raya, and Raya built a lot of town cred imo.

So by PoE, that just leaves you. Now I may be wrong, but by far, you have the strongest case against you, so youre the vote I am pushing. If I am the elim today, or if you are the elim and somehow flip town, then I am hopeful that the council info can give us more to go on tomorrow. But with what we have atm, I am not seeing a strong case being built against anyone else.

[Lukewarm]

@Yessiree, please vote for me, so that I can self hammer if I need to!

[Lukewarm]

And this is why TBone was correct that using the Doctor ability was a bad strategy. People are assuming Yess is town because he did not move when he was tracked, but because the doctor was in place, it does not actually clear him at all

What is this? Can someone help me understand this? Is he implying that mafia shot the doc target, so the tracked person, that took no action shouldn't be cleared????

I am saying that the track target cannot be cleared, because there is no way for us to know if the doc ability stopped the mafia kill, or if the mafia choose to no kill. Imo, I find it more likely that the mafia no killed, then the council (a 1 in 8) and the mafia (a 1 in 7) chose the same person. That is just not very likely.

So I am approaching my analysis under the belief that the mafia no killed night 1, and therefore you being tracked neither clears not implicates you.

[Lukewarm]

So I am approaching my analysis under the belief that the mafia no killed night 1, and therefore you being tracked neither clears

nor

implicates you.

[Lukewarm]

@Yessiree, please vote for me, so that I can self hammer if I need to!

I think keeping both you and I in the game is a very bad move for town, and will help scum a lot. if you put a vote on to me, I will self hammer right at the dead line, assuming that enough people don't log on in time for either your wagon or mine to go through before then

[Lukewarm]

Why are we eliminating yesus over Moz slot

I think it is because Raya was already more suspicious of Yes then of Moz before I replaced in? And then T3 followed them.

I am perfectly willing to self hammer at the last min if Yess will put a vote on me, but I am asking you to do the opposite and hammer Yess if he does not log back on in time or just does not vote me. I think a no-elim is a really bad move.

[Lukewarm]

@mod, can we get a VC please?

[Lukewarm]

@Yes, I think the PoE really brings it down to you or me, so I really think one of us needs to die today, and then let the council info clear/incriminate the other.

[Lukewarm]

NoElim is very bad.

Right now we are at 1:6, so we have 1 miselim. If we vote one of the two of us, and then the council tracks the other, it will force the scum to either no kill, which will give us an extra miselim OR they will have to kill, giving which ever one of us that lived a full clear. Either way, that is really good for town.

[Lukewarm]

@mod, has Nono been prodded? IT has been nearly 5 full days since they have posted. Can the countdown timer be stopped, if they need to be replaced out?

[Lukewarm]

Well it looks like we are going without an elim today, unless the mod holds everything and replaces out Nono

[Lukewarm]

Ugh. Well, I tried my best

Council should probably track either me or yes, and then not use the doctor ability

[Lukewarm]

But then Raya did not bite on the BM=scum line, and suggested instead that we vote Yes today followed by BM tomorrow. And Yessiree changed his tune, and started suggesting a no vote

Can't believe I missed this one earlier. It's not our fault the guy who's supposed to engage with us today kinda just dipped you know? It would've definitely cleared some stuff up between BM Raya and me, but it never happened. And speaking of Raya, what are you even scumreading me for? This is slothful

My problem is everyone is playing very town-like. I'm not even scumreading anyone in my pool. I just think by interactions you make the most sense as scum

hmmmmm. Very much do not like this. Leaving your vote on the wagon that was less likely to pass, and then showing up literally minutes after the timer finished. Voting me off would have been the much smarter play here then not eliminating anyone.

[Lukewarm]

I am just going to hold out hope that the mod will replace out nono, and give us another chance at getting a vote passed. I mean our fully cleared town did not once cast a vote for the elimination

[Lukewarm]

@Yes, I think the PoE really brings it down to you or me, so I really think one of us needs to die today, and then let the council info clear/incriminate the other.

Poe is a double edged sword. Especially when you start off on the wrong foot.

My point was that the logical poe brings it down to you and me, BUT we had a clear path towards dealing with the suspicion on BOTH of us, without losing the game.

If we kill one of us today, then that person is gone. And then tonight, the council could track the other one. At that point, either the mafia would kill, and completely clear that person, or they would no kill which would buy us an extra miselim before we lose. Literally, either outcome is beneficial for town. It lets us deal with the PoE candidates AND still have a kill left if the PoE had somehow been bamboozled.

Like the only possible outcomes were clearing the most suspicious player left (you or me) OR gaining another free elimination before ELo

By not voting one of us off, then (if by some miracle neither one of us are the scum) then the council cannot clear both of us, and one of us is going to be left to be the scapegoat for the real mafia.

[Lukewarm]

@Yessiree, please vote for me, so that I can self hammer if I need to!

I'm not gonna vote you so you cannot do specifically that. Also don't self hammer as any alignment.

I am generally a strong believer in not voting for yourself, UNLESS the alternative is a no-elim, which is ofter worse for the town then a mis-elim

[Lukewarm]

@Yessiree, please vote for me, so that I can self hammer if I need to!

I'm not gonna vote you so you cannot do specifically that. Also don't self hammer as any alignment.

I am generally a strong believer in not voting for yourself, UNLESS the alternative is a no-elim, which is ofter worse for the town then a mis-elim

The issue with that is the basis that we are gonna lim me next if we are wrong about you. So from my pov that's obviously a failed plan from the start.

Except that is not how it should have played out.

If we voted me, then the council would track you. If the mafia kills, then you are 100% cleared. If the mafia no-kills, then we gained an extra free elimination. Yes, you would go into tomorrow undersuspicion, BUT we would have an extra miselim before we lost.

As is, we are going to go into tomorrow with me pushing pretty hard for you, so youre still under suspicion, but now we have not gained a free elimination.

[Lukewarm]

@Yes, I think the PoE really brings it down to you or me, so I really think one of us needs to die today, and then let the council info clear/incriminate the other.

Poe is a double edged sword. Especially when you start off on the wrong foot.

My point was that the logical poe brings it down to you and me, BUT we had a clear path towards dealing with the suspicion on BOTH of us, without losing the game.

If we kill one of us today, then that person is gone. And then tonight, the council could track the other one. At that point, either the mafia would kill, and completely clear that person, or they would no kill which would buy us an extra miselim before we lose. Literally, either outcome is beneficial for town. It lets us deal with the PoE candidates AND still have a kill left if the PoE had somehow been bamboozled.

Like the only possible outcomes were clearing the most suspicious player left (you or me) OR gaining another free elimination before ELo

By not voting one of us off, then (if by some miracle neither one of us are the scum) then the council cannot clear both of us, and one of us is going to be left to be the scapegoat for the real mafia.

If you are not mafia, mafia just no kills again to solidify your elim next day. Gaining 2 mislims for free, and we are right back to another round of Poe. We no-lim here to let council do its magic. I had a plan if I got on the council but obviously that can't happen now.

You are either scum, or you are really playing into their hands. Slowing down the game helps the mafia, because the town loses all abilities after tonight. It is much better to force their hand while we have abilities, then to just wait out the clock until we have lost all of our own abilities.

[Lukewarm]

I am strongly getting the impression that you are valuing you personally not getting voted out over the town winning this game. Which obviously does not help me stop thinking you are scum...

[Lukewarm]

...

We don't gain any free lims by elimming today. How is this so hard to understand? You get the same number of lims in a 1v5 and 1v6, sans any night action shenanigans.

And yes mafia can NK a conftown but we also generate one more conftown in the process, while also narrowing down the Poe.

Literally the elimination today would have been the free miselimination...

My point was that if we kill one of us, and the other is tracked, then EITHER, the mafia kills, and we enter MElo with both of the two of us no longer under suspicion, OR the mafia no kills because they do not want to clear us, and we gain an extra miselim.

D3: 1:6 -> miselim -> 1:5 .....

[

Lukewarm

+ Yessiree] under suspicion

N3: 1:5 ->Night kill -> 1:4 .....

[

Lukewarm

+

Yessiree

] under suspicion

D4: MElo

[We enter MElo, without either of us under suspicion]

We have 1 miselim

D3: 1:6 -> miselim -> 1:5 .....

[

Lukewarm

+ Yessiree] under suspicion

N3: 1:5 -> No NK -> 1:5 ......

[

Lukewarm

+ Yessiree] under suspicion

D4: 1:5 -> miselim -> 1:4 .....

[

Lukewarm

+

Yessiree

] under suspicion

N4: 1:4 -> Night Kill -> 1:3
D5: Elo

[We enter Elo without either of us under suspicion]

We have 2 miselim

Either way, we can deal with the PoE on both of us before we are out of miselim

If the vote does not pass from today (which I am still unclear on), then

D3: 1:6 -> noelim -> 1:6 .....

[Lukewarm + Yessiree] under suspicion

N3: 1:6 -> No NK -> 1:6 .....

[Lukewarm + Yessiree] under suspicion

D4: 1:6 -> Miselim -> 1:5 .....

[

Lukewarm

+ Yessiree] under suspicion

N4: 1:5 -> Night kill -> 1:4 (no one is cleared because we no longer have any abilities)
D5: MElo

[We enter MeEo, with one of us still alive, and under suspicion, so the mafia can use us as a scapegoat]

Let's say we elim me, mafia kills nono, you are track cleared going into 1v4. I don't trust you enough or anyone else to find the last scum between the remaining players. At the same time, I don't think elimming you wins the game for town, so if one of Arte/BM/Raya is cleared, I also don't trust them enough to find the last scum either.

1) if you had voted for me, then YOU would have been the one who would have been cleared, so you would not have had to rely on anyone else
2) I actually hate this mindset going into this game.

I play this game, assuming everyone is just as good as I am, so the best path forward is the path that gives the town the maximum amount of information to town, regardless of whether that leaves me at ELo or not. From what I am reading from you, you are willing to deprive the town of information if that means you get to live? That is very much anti-town...

Of course, seeing as how I am pretty sure you are scum, good on you for depriving town of information.

[Lukewarm]

You're saying the poe is between you and me like it's a matter of fact. Who decided it? You? Me? Raya and her "interaction clears"? Half the playerlist that's barely participating?

But you're right, I should've voted for you. I didn't because I hated voting someone who's openly claiming that he's gonna vote himself. So I admit that's my mistake. Chalk it up to Sunday late night 3 am panic posting.

I think I have been pretty clear on how I did my PoE

Nono is tracker cleared
Arte and T3

BM

are basically cleaer imo because of Day 1. Almost50 tried to get both of them off the council, and then the two of them pushed out almost 50 in response.

I then openly admit that I just really town read Raya.

That just leaves me and you.

Why would I build my strategy around BM having possibly bussed Almost50, for seemingly no reason, on Day 1, when you are right here looking so scummy?

So when I saw an opportunity for us to gain definitive information on both me and you before we entered ELo, I pushed for that hard. Either the PoE is right, and we find the scum between the two of us, OR someone slipped through the PoE (like BM bussing Almost50 Day 1 for some reason) and we would know that we needed to consider things like that.

[Lukewarm]

And I've been saying that the poe is wrong, the poe is wrong, to you and to Raya, multiple times. Reconsider, no one listens. So here we are.

Nono is the only clear. No one else is cleared. Clearing Arte and T3 over something A50 did is a reading into wifom and, quite frankly, playing into A50's hands, if this is something scum planned, because no way A50 expected to be elimmed that quickly on day 1. If A50 survived and one of Arte or T3 ever flips red, he can carry that cred all the way to LiLo. You openly admitting you TR Raya is still a read, it does not constitute a clear in any way, but even I admit if she can steer clear of so many player's poe she is playing a good scum game.

When you see an opportunity for town to gain information moving forward, I see mistakes and stubbornness to re-evaluate.

Okay, I saw a way for us to see the official roles of "the person I am most suspicious of" and "the person arte is most suspicious of" before we hit Elo.

But what does your plan give us? Nothing. If we no elim, and then the mafia no kill, we gain absolutely no information, and now we are right back where we started, except we no longer have any abilities.

So now, what I am seeing is you depriving the town of information...

[Lukewarm]

Like my slot was the most suspicious slot for both T3 and for Artemiana

Deadline in a day.
This might be an oversimplification but unless we all got played by Raya it's basically autowin.
VOTE: Lukewarm
Lukewarm hasn't been particularly scummy but the previous player in the slot was really bad.

As it stands raya is a paranoia push. It's all makes sense for the game to end after Moza dies and if not then we'll go down that road then

And your slot is the most suspicious for me and Raya

Is it just yessiree and that whole T-Bone and BM thing was actually TvT? And if that's wrong then we just go for BM next. I still think by A50 interaction moz is semi-clear. And Art too.

And I came up with a plan where we could get both of those alignments revealed before Elo. If any one was right, then congrats, we win. If every single player in the lobby was wrong, then its probably a good thing for us to know that for sure before ELo. I cannot understand why town would be so opposed to that plan.

[Lukewarm]

sorry, will check later today,, mod away, interest low, will hammer if needed
i like yessir, tbh, think raya is wolf

VOTE: raya for emphasis
thoughts??

The deadline passed 24 hours ago.

Yeah, the deadline passed with no-elim, but then Arte passed what would be a hammer vote, but too late.

[Lukewarm]

You think no-lim was my plan and blame me for the nolim How many votes were in play? You're seriously gonna blame my lone vote for nolim when you guys failed to get a majority on neither council nor elim before the deadline. You think your plan is so great that it'll solve the game, so why didn't you vote yourself if you're so inclined?

How many votes were in play? Raya was locked onto your slot, and arte was locked on to mine. Me and T3 were active and on right up to the deadline, and could have switched to either wagon.


Raya or Arte switching their votes was enough for us to push the votes through - which I pointed out to both of them.
A single vote from you on me was enough for us to pass a wagon on me - which I pointed out to you as well.

But then as the deadline approached, no one was on, no Arte, Raya, Yessiree, or Nono. Any one of those people being on could have let us pass a vote. I think this thread being dead is gonna be the reason town has a chance of losing this game

Your plan is taking a copout, it's passing off responsibility to other people instead of taking matter into your own hands. That's why I don't endorse it. That said, I can see why you think it's a good plan, because you replaced into a scummy slot, and you obviously can't speak for your pred. Not me, I've been here the whole time can speak for myself thank you very much.

If you had voted for me, then my plan would have been eliminate me, tracker clear you. How much more power could you have asked for to try and "take matters into your own hands" I was trying to set you up to be the full cleared town leader tomorrow, where you could have then pushed for your agenda. But then you passed on that. Almost like you don't think you could have gotten full cleared by the plan...

[Lukewarm]

I am ready to immediately vote Yessiree, and the only reason I am waiting, is to hear council results

[Lukewarm]

VOTE: Yessiree

[Lukewarm]

Raya did not go anywhere.

Oh well that doesn't help me that much

I'm going to come back later and try to figure this out

That helps me quite a bit. Raya was the nagging worry in the back of my head. Like, my plan yesterday was to get both me and yessiree out, and still have that last shot if Raya was really pulling one over on me. But now I don't even have to worry about that

[Lukewarm]

If it is not Yes, then it is T3. I am pretty confident we just win with a Yessiree vote, but if by some chance I am wrong, that leaves exactly T3 as a possibility.


Nono + Raya36 are track cleared, and if we vote yessiree today, that just leaves T3. I am pretty sure it is not him, based on Day 1, but if somehow yessiree flips green, he's all that is left

So, from my PoV, I think we win no matter what at this point

[Lukewarm]

A50 pushed very hard to get me off the council, while tring moz. I'm not sure if I'm ready to tr that slot yet.

I tried so freaking hard to get myself voted out yesterday, and you still think I could be the scum

Regardless, I'm pretty sure its just Yessiree

[Lukewarm]

I have a question for the council. Was the protection used, and if so, who was it used on?

[Lukewarm]

If the answer is Nono, then I might need to rethink my position on T3, but if it is anyone else or it was unused, then I'm sticking to Yessiree

[Lukewarm]

might as well say,, art insisted we use no-protect, so we did

what do you think that says? looks like off-council scum,, although it's possible t3 scum set it up to look that way,, art was a good kill
looked through raya's post, and agree, almost seems too closely tied to mozami, i think,, don't know about other two, but we don't have to know

To me, it says that the scum is more likely to be Yessiree over T3.

The obvious choice for T3 would have been to target you in order to avoid having 2 clear town players today. He could have done so without too much worry of it drawing attention to himself, because everyone, on the council or off, already knew you were clear.

Yessiree on the other hand, would have had to choose a target that he did not think would be being protected. Not being on the council, he would not be sure if you were being protected or not.

Both of these choices have some big WIFOM energy to them to be fair though. So there is a chance that the it was a T3, big-brain, WIFOM choice to kill Arte over you, but I am happy to stick with Yessiree today.

[Lukewarm]

Why would I kill off Arte who is more likely to vote lukewarm over me?

If I'm scum I'd kill Raya who's fixated on SRing me and TRing lukewarm, that leaves nono, arte, and myself which is enough to vote out luke

I don't know man. Maybe to remind to never go against a Sicilian when death is on the line, but who can really say.

From my pov, it is either you or T3, and we have two votes. The way you handled Day 3 has me leaning much more strongly towards it being you. T3 was on, leading up to the deadline, right there with me trying to get a vote through. And you seemed to be trying your damnedest to keep town from doing anything productive. So it seems to me that voting you today is my best bet to end this game without having to go to day 5.

Raya and nono, if you guys disagree I will switch my vote, but yes is my preference for the day.

[Lukewarm]

yessir is so good xD gonna be honest, gut says it's not yessir, i want to believe him,, still thinking,, objectively speaking mozami is the least towny,, has always been,, gut wants so save one of the other two
changing mind,, raya, are you sure?

I am having a hard time following this post. Are you suggesting we switch the vote to me?

I cannot make any defense for what Moz was doing, because I honestly disagreed with almost every read and push they put into this thread. I just ask that you look back over how I have handled this game before you settle on that vote. I tried really hard to make it so that we could vote out all 3 of me+yessiree+one more. Like I presented the plan, explained how we could deal with 3 different possible scum, and even offered to be the first to go.

Overall, I think that the best choice would be for us to vote out Yessiree, or if people are more suspicious of me, lets go ahead and vote me out, and then everyone vote Yes tomorrow. I think that the worst possible plan is to let us get to a 1v3 with both me and Yessiree alive, because I would be the easiest target for Scum-Yessiree to push town towards, and Yessiree would be the easiest target for scum-me to push town towards.

VOTE: Yessiree
HEAL: Artemiana, T3, Nono

Then was concerned that Raya wasn't voting me

I like the council I'm on.

I don't think I'll be back before deadline so just in case: VOTE: yessiree

Hmm. If he is not going to be back before the deadline, he probably should have voted for me. That would have given me the ability to self hammer if no one else (outside of artemiana and t3) check in before the dead line :/

Now in order for us to get an elimination today, we are reliant on either other people checking in, or both Artemiana and T3 switching their votes to Yessiree.

And tried to get yessiree to vote me as well.

@Yessiree, please vote for me, so that I can self hammer if I need to!

I have never in my life tried so hard to get myself voted out (which I still think would have set town up for a win btw). And then half the lobby just refused to vote for me. But that ship has sailed with Day 3.

Spoiler:

If you do still decide to vote me out today, please vote yessiree tomorrow.

[Lukewarm]

i like yessir x) just gut

raya, what do you think about yessir killing art, and d1 no kill/no death/"yessir did not go anywhere result?"

VOTE: t3

unsure, as of yet, but feel like we shouldn't save mage slot,, for t-bone

p-edit: let's get it today)

Nono, how sure are you?

[Lukewarm]

Like, you say youre unsure, but you are also trying to sway Raya to follow you.

[Lukewarm]

Tbh I'm still not sure on Lukewarm. His entrance was tony... meh idk.

Ey! I'm walkin here!

[Lukewarm]

UNVOTE:

I'll look at that thing you mentioned either on my lunch or after work, Nono

I'd be willing to go T3 today as long as yessiree is next if we're wrong

omg. This day has moved so slow, without much happening. If this is the direction we are going anyways, lets get it over with

VOTE: T3

[Lukewarm]

I believe T3 is hammered already by luke.

@yessiree, did we win?

[Lukewarm]

I believe T3 is hammered already by luke.

@yessiree, did we win?

Yes, if you're not scum

[Lukewarm]

I believe T3 is hammered already by luke.

@yessiree, did we win?

Yes, if you're not scum

[Lukewarm]

Agreed. Out of luke and yessir yessir is looling much more scummy right now.

honestly feels like yessir is trying to wriggle out of automatic loss

To me it basically feels like yessir is trying to get out of autoloss... I realy don't know.

Oops, got prodded.
So Lukewarm thn yessr? Wht order.

Tbh I'm still not sure on Lukewarm. His entrance was tony... meh idk.

This series of posts from T3 made me suspicious.

Like he seemed to have a clear preference to Yessiree, but then came back and it was gone without explanation. Which made me feel like his reads on me/yessiree were not genuine.

But then I felt like I could not put that into the thread, because then people might think I was trying to setup for a miselim on T3 tomorrow.

So I hammered without making it seem like I was suspicious of him

[Lukewarm]

But that was well played overall T3. I feel like you came close to pulling the back from a terrible start, given a scum was voted out Day 1.

[Lukewarm]

And thanks Isis for being out step-mod <3