newbie 2060: creatures, game ofer

[Demainer]

Mawnin everyone! Looking forward to this game

[Demainer]

Yeah, let's do this. VOTE: endlessdark

[Demainer]

Are you trying to defend endlessdark?

[Demainer]

Interesting dynamics, let's see what happens from here.

Admittedly though, Demain's reaction is a bit of a loaded question, since as far as I'm concerned it may as well be saying, "Are you scum with dark?" which obviously no one would admit to.

Well, all questions are loaded in some form or another, at least mine makes it clear that it's loaded.

Having said that, I wouldn't mind a response from Lukewarm.

[Demainer]

no triple hmmmmm?

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

[Demainer]

VOTE: WhemeStar for shying away from the vote.

[Demainer]

That post feels a bit scummy to me.

[Demainer]

The one right above mine, i.e. Wheme's second post. Too defensive.

[Demainer]

I'm sticking with my vote for now.

[Demainer]

endlessdark wasn't.

Would love to see the vote actually reaching majority, but that will probably never happen.

[Demainer]

So do you agree with me that you liked his posts

Enough to have a much scummier target to go for, yes.

[Demainer]

Why so?

That post was meant to be tongue-in-cheek, of course day won't end this early. My point was that

no one

would have the guts to dump the final vote on WhemeStar, so his E-1 argument was largely moot.

Unless early D1 majority votes are common here, in which case I stand corrected.

[Demainer]

So if you agree with me that you like his posts why did you not like my unvote?

You can misinterpret what I said in any way you want, but you won't bait me into saying something I don't agree with. I said I had a scummier target to go for (aka you, after you immediately unvoted once endlessdark appeared in the thread).

You still haven't convinced me that you're not scum.

[Demainer]

I said

Enough to have a much scummier target to go for, yes.

What does "much scummier" imply?

[Demainer]

(1) You were only the third vote on the endlessdark wagon, (2) you voted when it was clearly still RVS, and (3) how can you scumread someone who hadn't even posted yet when you voted for them?

[Demainer]

Whemestar's original post:

Hihi VOTE: endless dark

I like a wagon

L-2 btw. Which means 2 more votes is a hammer which is a flip. Something we don’t want currently.

[Demainer]

The whole defense just seems rather odd.

[Demainer]

the speed of this game

:doge:

Anything to say about the game? Any reads?

[Demainer]

I don't have strong reads either way on anyone apart from Whemestar, it'll likely remain that way until Wheme flips. For now it wouldn't hurt to get some discussion going so when Wheme does flip town or scum, we'll have info to go on based on today's activity.

[Demainer]

Tunnels are good when they take you to a new and fascinating destination. I'm excited.

[Demainer]

I'm undecided. They haven't posted much, but I don't disagree with what they're saying.

[Demainer]

Demainer can you answer post #40

You unvoted immediately after endlessdark made two posts that barely said anything. Scummy move

[Demainer]

And said this:

I don't have any scum pings from anyone yet and thats sad;/

[Demainer]

Obvious scum tactic to protect yourself after shying away from the vote

[Demainer]

I don't understand why we need role claims so early in the game, it's only going to hurt town? Unless there are special mechanics in this setup I'm not aware of.

Not getting town vibes from that recent post.

[Demainer]

I don't find it problematic that Lukewarm posted 3 scumreads instead of 2. If he's on the scum team, then of course he'll know there are two scum in the game, so why deliberately draw attention to himself by ignoring that? Unless he wanted to make a point that he did feel that 3 players were scum, which is NAI.

And no specific preference between 3 scumreads is still a lot better than no reads at all.

[Demainer]

I don't understand why we need role claims so early in the game, it's only going to hurt town? Unless there are special mechanics in this setup I'm not aware of.

Not getting town vibes from that recent post.

What are you guys talking about? Lukewarm's post is sensible. The person we're eliminating obviously has to claim and it's useful information for the town. There's no getting around this and it's not a scummy thing to push the town into action a bit.

What would be the point of forcing claims right now?

Everyone is going to claim vanilla except for the two power roles. How does that help town at all?

[Demainer]

Town is more likely to win if we lynch someone day 1 compared to a no-lynch, even if its a mislynch. So I am speaking with the mindset that

someone

is getting lynched today. If that is happening, we should give that person a chance to claim, no?

I am unsure what you are trying to say. Do you think that nolynch is a reasonable choice? Do think that we should not give someone a chance to claim before we hammer? I am just confused how you imagine the day playing out, without 1 person claiming their role.

That is not what you said. For reference (bolded and underlined for emphasis):

Yes its page 5 (well 6 now), but we are also on the 6th irl day for our in game Day 1. Maybe I am just not accustomed to the pacing of games on this site, but it feels like we are approaching the point where we just have to pick someone. Like there is only so much info we can really gain in day 1 until we force someone to claim, no?

I am getting pretty antsy for us to l-1 someone just so we can gain new info. Force someone to claim their role, then decide if we want to actually hammer the person based on what they claim. I mean if we wait to much longer, then if we L-1 someone, and decide we shouldn't hammer them, we won't even have long to form a new wagon.

I am not necessarily saying that I think it needs to be you, I would be happy for us to L-1 anyone on my scumread list tbh, so for now, I am gonna be on the biggest wagon between Whemestar, Ivyeo and Clasko.

VOTE: Ivyeo because I have sat on the Whemestar wagon for a while, and the Ivyeo wagon is the same size, so might as well mix it up lol

[Demainer]

This sounds like you were advocating for pushing other players to E-1 and forcing them to claim, rather than simply giving a chance to the then E-1 target to claim.

[Demainer]

Ivyeo and Ahri both give me bad vibes. They're posting very cautiously in the thread, Ahri hasn't said anything material at all, and Ivyeo seems to be creating an "I told you so" position to defend herself before WhemeStar's flip.

It does make me a bit less certain that Wheme is scum, because based on that, Ivyeo and Wheme can't be on the same team. But I'm sticking with my vote because I trust my gut feeling.

I feel that something is off about Clasko as well, but they've been active in the game posting reads and sharing their thoughts, so no strong thoughts on this one way or the other.

[Demainer]

What do you think about Dem, Ivyeo?
And what do you think about me, Ahri?

Dem is a lean scum for me. They were pushing pretty strong on Wheme, but their most recent post was them doubting their Wheme read, followed by silence as our votes still aren't coming to a majority. I'd like to hear where they want to go now whilst we're still not fully unified.

I haven't changed my vote, that should be a clear indicator of where I'm currently at.

[Demainer]

Also, I apologize to Wheme if I'm wrong with my vote. I can't really say I've seen something that makes me think you're genuinely helping the town. That doesn't necessarily make you maf, but it's more than what I have on others.

Do you think ahri is helping the town more than me then?

ahri not posting is not helping anyone, but I prefer to deal with concrete information based on threadplay rather than random guesswork. Inactivity is NAI. Also, everyone apart from ahri has been active today, so I don't see any reason to policy lynch for inactivity.

[Demainer]

Sorry for using the word, I mean eliminate.

[Demainer]

There is, and so far ahri's activity does not give me scum vibes. On the other hand, your posting has given me scum vibes, which I find much more compelling than mere inactivity.

[Demainer]

Why has my posting given you scum vibes

I've fleshed out my thoughts on this earlier, but onto your recent posting activity - you've been targeting multiple players in the thread the past few days, throwing everything at the wall and seeing what sticks. It feels like a desperate attempt at trying to get someone else eliminated, anyone, as long as it's not you. I would expect town to be much more methodical in this situation. Or better, to not care so much about being eliminated, since we're all cannon fodder anyway, and even a miselimination can give good info.

Not saying that I expect town to want to be eliminated, no one wants to be, but at least not desperate to the point of just going after anyone you can go after in the thread.

[Demainer]

I don't think it is, scum is obviously trying to avoid going after someone they have substantial interaction with in the thread.

The only notable thing about ahri is that she didn't engage in the thread at all, so the kill doesn't incriminate anyone. I'll need to read back the thread to check though.

And sorry Wheme for the misread, I know I can't bring you back to life but I'll try to avenge the elim.

[Demainer]

If you're scumreading me for apologizing to Wheme, then so be it, it's your choice. I was convinced our scum team was Wheme + Clasko, but with Wheme flipping town I've gone back to the drawing board and re-iso'd everyone.


Lukewarm: Wheme's flip hardspews Luke as town, this is the most certain read I have so far. It's possible that Luke went for an extended scum play, but I feel that's highly unlikely given the stage at which Luke spewed.

Clasko: I went into the D1 flip thinking he was lockscum, but now I've re-iso'd him he comes off as town. It's only a lean though. His "slip" on me and Wheme does not read scum to me now, and his D2 activity has been giving me good vibes as well, I see someone trying to figure things out rather than trying to force town into a conclusion.

Saudade: I can't read him. Most of the posts are one-liners, and in the ones that do offer some insight into his position on other players, it's mostly just vomiting reads without much of an explanation. Having said that, I do get the feeling that he's genuinely trying to get a read on other folks, and I don't see any kind of tmi posting (again, could just be that he's good at hiding it), so I'm very slightly leaning town here, though I'd be more comfortable with a null read.

endlessdark: Null for me. Not getting any scum pings here, but also not seeing any evidence that they're town.

Egix96: The only thing I have to say here is that he's gone after both of my current town reads/leans, and his reaction to Ahri's death seems forced. Lean scum for me.

Ivyeo: I'm hard leaning scum on this one, her entire D1 iso is essentially fossing everyone without truly committing to any sort of read (and when asked to provide them, hid behind the "I'm bad at it, don't want to lose us the game" excuse which hardly holds, you either have them or you don't). Her single D2 post does not read town to me either, at all. There was no way Ahri's death N1 was a "great kill", it was clearly an anti-spew play (which is also why I'm considering whether we have an SE in the scum team). Simply another post that doesn't contribute any sort of hard info on the game.

[Demainer]

VOTE: Ivyeo

[Demainer]

Ivyeo:\Her single D2 post does not read town to me either, at all. There was no way Ahri's death N1 was a "great kill", it was clearly an anti-spew play (which is also why I'm considering whether we have an SE in the scum team). Simply another post that doesn't contribute any sort of hard info on the game.

How was Ahri not a good kill for town? Not only was she a VT, but she was someone with plenty of suspicion on her.

No one voted for her because they thought she was scum. Everyone made it clear that it was a vote for inactivity. And some even townread her for not posting.

Instead of continuing on a tangent and avoiding the discussion today, why not actually share your thoughts on other people?

[Demainer]

Lukewarm: Wheme's flip hardspews Luke as town, this is the most certain read I have so far. It's possible that Luke went for an extended scum play, but I feel that's highly unlikely given the stage at which Luke spewed.

What does "spewed" mean, here? Can you, or someone, elaborate? I've never heard of that term in a Mafia game.

The identification of alignments based on posts in the thread, in its simplest sense. My point is that Lukewarm can be cleared as town based on the approach of his posts towards Wheme on D1.

And Ahri was selected as the scum kill because she was largely ignored in the thread, no one had any "reason" to take her out. We can't get anything from her death/flip.

[Demainer]

I'm trying to explain my thoughts on how scum approached the kill last night.

I don't think going after Ahri for the anti-spew was very successful, since it clears you as town (hence why I said you were hardspewed as town). But, it does limit the damage that can potentially be caused by killing someone with more posts in the thread.

[Demainer]

And you trying to talk people out of analyzing the mafia's night kill isn't helping that perception either.

Please point to where I've asked someone to stop analyzing mafia's night kill last night.

[Demainer]

For reference, here is the entirety of Ivyeo's activity today:

That's a great kill for town no?

How was Ahri not a good kill for town? Not only was she a VT, but she was someone with plenty of suspicion on her.

[Demainer]

Emphasis on "why not actually share your thoughts on other people".

There's not much I can say if you can't see that the three sentences Ivyeo's posted in 4 days somehow all relate to Ahri and nothing else. No reads on other players. No discussion on what we should do today. No discussion on Wheme. Just Ahri.

And nothing substantial either. It's literally "that's a great kill for town no", followed by "how was Ahri not a good kill for town", then a statement which is verifiably false, as no one said they scumread Ahri after voting for her.

I'm fairly sure I've shared more thoughts on Ahri's flip than Ivyeo has.

[Demainer]

Ivyeo is my strongest (and only) sr so far. I'm mainly just reading her posts for spew now.

[Demainer]

With Saudade and endless both disappearing and not posting for a while, it's a bit difficult to figure out the last scum. I can see Egix and Saudade being w/w with Ivyeo.

[Demainer]

Clasko claiming Town Cop... I need to re-iso everyone now /sad

I still want to believe that the scum team has an se, Ahri was the perfect nightkill

I don't see a dual newbie being bold enough to pull that off tbh

[Demainer]

I know this is confbias but Iyveo is seriously pinging me with that post.

It focuses entirely on me and Egix, and doesn't mention Saudade or endless at all.

[Demainer]

Whilst I agree that we have a wolf in the saudade/endless pair, we have one more elim until lylo, I'm still not decided at all on which of them is the wolf.

After a re-iso on saudade and endless, I can see them being w/w. I just find it difficult to wrap my head around ivyeo being a villager.

[Demainer]

Didn't you say you were going to share your thoughts on other players? After your last post focused entirely on me and Egix.

[Demainer]

In this game, Saudade doesn't interact with his scumbuds and doesn't vote them. He said he was playing differently from usual due to out of game reasons. He trolled quite a bit.

This game is similar - very little interaction, no vote on scumbuds.

This isn't a full meta dive because I'm mostly interested in just figuring out if Demainer/Saudade make sense as a scum team given Saudade's page 7.

My conclusion is they don't make a whole lot of sense as a team given Saudade's most recent scum games.

But I definitely don't townread Bell. :/

I might wind up meta-ing a few more games.

-----------------------

@Demainer

With Saudade and endless both disappearing and not posting for a while, it's a bit difficult to figure out the last scum. I can see Egix and Saudade being w/w with Ivyeo.

Can you explain why you think Saudade/Ivy make sense together?

I am quite certain on Ahri being an anti-spew kill, not a pr hunt. But, in either case, whether it's for antispew or pr, neither option is obvious to a newbie. There are more obvious targets in the thread, like Luke, who was both active and widely tr, or an se. Killing a newbie who has barely posted anything at all isn't something I'd expect from a 2x newbie team.

With Egix cleared by Clasko, that leaves saudade. while i see endless being on the team as well as it seems like he has some experience with this as well, I'm leaning most towards saudade/ivyeo.

My vote today is based on who I think has the highest probability of being scum. Is a saudade/endless team possible? Yes. But, i'm more convinced the scum team is ivyeo + saudade/endless.

[Demainer]

I don't think we should elim endless/ffery. I am interested in ffery's thoughts on ivy.

[Demainer]

Didn't you say you were going to share your thoughts on other players? After your last post focused entirely on me and Egix.

I mentioned my read on Luke at the start, and that's because I didn't really have anything to say on the others that hadn't been said already.

This just feels like antispew to me.

You said you'd reread the thread to get a read on other players, but now you're backing off.

[Demainer]

The main point here isn't whether what you say has already been said, if it has been, you can still say that you agree with what particular statements have been made by other players.

[Demainer]

To me it looks like he's running on autopilot, just pushing whoever and saying whatever. He is emotionally engaged, hence why Wheme seemed to think he was "tunneled" but I just think of him as like an NPC in marioparty on a stage where they just sort of run at you to try you knock you off the platform with 0 deviation or algorithmic pathing. Like an arrow.

I've been very clear about where my suspicion lies. Please quote which of my posts point to me "just pushing whoever and saying whatever".

[Demainer]

I don't see any obvious anti-tunneling measures in Demainer's posts. SE's usually have those when they're trying.

What do you mean by how do I feel?
They constructed a blameless vote and argued that they were being very consistent this game with almost no trace of irony in their posts. They're very green.

Your push against Egix is off, why did you feel the need to push at him? You'd read the game beforehand right?

So what do you think our scumteam is

[Demainer]

after multi isoing ivyeo and a few others, her posts are even scummier

[Demainer]

who's the second scum, is it bell or ff hmm.............

[Demainer]

Why are you not on a team with Ivy?

(Before any complaints, I know it's loaded, it's the whole point)

[Demainer]

That's not what I asked. Why do you think I should think that you're not on a team with ivy?

If necessary, it can involve an analysis of your own play.

[Demainer]

I'm a bit on/off here, though I try to check in as much as I can.

[Demainer]

How do you think a player like Ivy would have reacted to a scum partner coming in with a null-town read and then in the course of 4-5 hours, with no interaction, switching to a POE scumread?

What was your read of Endless?

I'm not sure how she would react to something like that if that were what's going on here.

There's a fatalism that's creeped into her day 2 play that I didn't really feel in her day 2.

I realize I'm not answering your question. It's just not how I think about a game, especially one like this. As town, my interactions are all necessarily Town vs (??) with an occasional exception.

It could be rehearsed (which is possible if there's an SE on the team), or it could be something else. That's why I'm asking the question.

endless didn't post nearly enough for me to form a hard opinion of his play, it can go either way, which is why I had him as null in my original post on alignments. I'm mostly using your activity as a substitute/indicator.

Ivy's inactivity could be fatalism, or deliberate.

[Demainer]

I would still like a response to my question.

Why are your interactions all necessarily town? That statement already assumes your interactions could potentially not be town, so why isn't that the case?

[Demainer]

Who do you think is on the team?

[Demainer]

I'm looking a lot harder at Lukewarm because if I'm right about Saudade and I'm right that there isn't an obvious partner for Ivy which decreases her scum equity, then Lukewarm is in the frame. If he's town, then I'm wrong about Ivy.

There's a missing piece of the puzzle if you're trying to figure out my reads. My Demainer townread has degraded and I'm considering him as scum.

Reading through Lukewarm's ISO, every stance and stance change is well telegraphed, and well thought out. And that alone actually pings on a non-surface level. Lukewarm is playing a cautious game. And that may be a personality thing but maybe not.

It reminds me a little of my first mafia game at MS. I drew scum in my first newbie. I had about 4 years of experience playing on other sites with much shorter game days, and I decided to play the game like I was a semi-experienced player who knew the lingo but had sort of naive ideas about scumhunting. My theories were solid (though not very imaginative) and my trajectories were flawlessly telegraphed. And the one big ping anyone mentioned the whole game was about a post I would have made as town without hesitation to deflect attention from an obvious PR. Anyway. That was a strategy I could only use once at MS and it worked great for that one game.

I don't usually look for "too perfect to be real" play in newbie games, but my other reads kind of force this issue.

The other possibility I entertained last night is that Demainer came into day 2 thinking that with 2 town deaths the scum team was somewhat exposed and mega-distancing was called for. This would explain how passive Ivy has been, maybe, if she's being bussed.

So, my theories are: {Demainer, Ivy}, {Demainer, Lukewarm} which leads to me voting Demainer today.

Barring PR data suggesting otherwise, I think Demainer has to be the elim tomorrow if y'all go elsewhere today.

There just has to be a conspiracy for everything.

I'm staying on ivy. ff pushing me and ivy w/w and luke as deepwolf reeks of desperation. It's literally the only way to justify not having ivy as the elim.

My guess is the scum team has a blocker and they can't risk having someone on the team die tonight. Not before they take out clasko.

[Demainer]

The progression case is not convincing at all.

[Demainer]

Who do you think is on the team?

Who do you think is, and why? You intimated you think it's Bell or me.

Which flip clarifies the most?

This is something I'm more willing to revisit tomorrow when ivy flips scum, hopefully a blocker so clasko has another night result.

ivy is my most certain read, i'm not going to go for either you or bell for the sake of getting "info", my objective is to clear scum first.

[Demainer]

who's the second scum, is it bell or ff hmm.............

Which of their predecessors do you think was more towny iyo?

My opinion of end/sau hasn't changed, I still find sau's posting slightly more positive. ff is not villagery at all, it's all a pseudoconspiracy trying to prevent ivy from being elimed so the scum team can both block the cop and nk someone else, probably the confirmed town egix. Tomorrow they can case bell/ivy w/w and luke dw again.

[Demainer]

Who do you think is on the team?

Who do you think is, and why? You intimated you think it's Bell or me.

Which flip clarifies the most?

This is something I'm more willing to revisit tomorrow when ivy flips scum, hopefully a blocker so clasko has another night result.

ivy is my most certain read, i'm not going to go for either you or bell for the sake of getting "info", my objective is to clear scum first.

One of the three of us is almost certainly today's elim. if you're town then Ivy's scum equity necessarily goes up. But, I don't know that. I have to extrapolate from the thread data.

Which three?

[Demainer]

who's the second scum, is it bell or ff hmm.............

Which of their predecessors do you think was more towny iyo?

My opinion of end/sau hasn't changed, I still find sau's posting slightly more positive. ff is not villagery at all, it's all a pseudoconspiracy trying to prevent ivy from being elimed so the scum team can both block the cop and nk someone else, probably the confirmed town egix. Tomorrow they can case bell/ivy w/w and luke dw again.

Have a look at my user title. trajectory is my thing and I made it a thing at MS. Some people fetishize VCA, which I'm never going to put much stock in unless it's a trajectory-based analysis of wagons. Which I hardly ever do, myself, because it's insanely intensive in most game settings.

Anyway I'm metaphorically giving you my strongest "math teacher staring down a rather long nose at your sad algebra attempt" look over your pseudoconspiracy characterization.

[quote="Demainer"
Which three?

Ivy, you and me.[/quote]

The progression is almost nonexistent. You spent most of the day distancing yourself from outright identifying someone as scum, keeping your options open. You mentioned in passing that you didn't like ivy's inactivity, but you completely skirted my question on why you couldn't be on a team w/ ivy.

Then, 180. Immediately jump onto me and luke/ivy scumteam for absolutely zero reason to justify the change in opinion, zero progression. The entire post is just about how luke is actually a dw, and I started a d2 bus on ivy because we were "exposed". Zero mention of your thoughts on ivy and why you think she is or isn't w/w with everyone else.

[Demainer]

This is the def of a pseudoconspiracy, it doesn't even feel like a genuine opinion on things, reading this I can feel that the last two sentences were written first before everything else.

[Demainer]

Everything in that post is just to justify the end result.

[Demainer]

My thoughts on the last few posts that aren't mine:

Demainer didn't jump at the opportunity to move to me, which lowers his already low-ish probability of being scum with Ivy.

Lukewarm did move to me, which increases the probability of Lukewarm being scum overall, which also increases {Lukewarm, Bell} probability, imo, which makes me sad because I really wanted to be correct about Saudade-town. Of course, The possibility of {Demeanor, Lukewarm} is still a somewhat indeterminate cloud of probability to me.

I'm in the interesting circumstance of being able to analyze my wagon pre-flip, and I'm going to use it to the fullest extent possible during the next few hours. And I want this info to be thought about tomorrow when more alignments are facts in evidence. quite possibly including my own!

You literally had me and ivy as the most probable scum team, said you were going to vote for me on that basis, and now I'm not scum with ivy?

And apparently, the probability was "already low-ish"?

Lampshade to the max.

[Demainer]

More lampshading.

I don't take issue with you suddenly thinking I'm not on a scumteam w/ ivy because of my "inaction" or whatever. It's the fact that you emphasized the probability was "

already

low-ish" that is the problem.

[Demainer]

Literally hours ago:

I'm looking a lot harder at Lukewarm because if I'm right about Saudade and I'm right that there isn't an obvious partner for Ivy which decreases her scum equity, then Lukewarm is in the frame. If he's town, then I'm wrong about Ivy.

There's a missing piece of the puzzle if you're trying to figure out my reads. My Demainer townread has degraded and I'm considering him as scum.

Reading through Lukewarm's ISO, every stance and stance change is well telegraphed, and well thought out. And that alone actually pings on a non-surface level. Lukewarm is playing a cautious game. And that may be a personality thing but maybe not.

It reminds me a little of my first mafia game at MS. I drew scum in my first newbie. I had about 4 years of experience playing on other sites with much shorter game days, and I decided to play the game like I was a semi-experienced player who knew the lingo but had sort of naive ideas about scumhunting. My theories were solid (though not very imaginative) and my trajectories were flawlessly telegraphed. And the one big ping anyone mentioned the whole game was about a post I would have made as town without hesitation to deflect attention from an obvious PR. Anyway. That was a strategy I could only use once at MS and it worked great for that one game.

I don't usually look for "too perfect to be real" play in newbie games, but my other reads kind of force this issue.

The other possibility I entertained last night is that Demainer came into day 2 thinking that with 2 town deaths the scum team was somewhat exposed and mega-distancing was called for. This would explain how passive Ivy has been, maybe, if she's being bussed.

So, my theories are: {Demainer, Ivy}, {Demainer, Lukewarm} which leads to me voting Demainer today.

Barring PR data suggesting otherwise, I think Demainer has to be the elim tomorrow if y'all go elsewhere today.

[Demainer]

Please explain how Dem/Ivy scum team is both the most likely possibility, and one you feel certain to the point of declaring you'd vote for me (but not actually doing it), and somehow also a low-ish possibility at the same time.

[Demainer]

Please explain how Dem/Ivy scum team is both the most likely possibility, and one you feel certain to the point of declaring you'd vote for me (but not actually doing it), and somehow also a low-ish possibility at the same time.

Once again, YOUR ACTIONS/INACTIONS have changed my read of you since last night. Sort-of-threatening to vote you was mostly to see how you'd react. I could have actually put that vote down, but I felt like it wasn't necessary to get a reaction from you.

But more importantly, I tend not to vote while I'm a viable elim candidate because it jostles my wagon and makes the movements harder to read. In this circumstance, I probably won't put a vote down except to prevent no-elim, unless (against my expectations) I cease to be a viable elim candidate.

Not buying that at all.

You're quite clearly trying to mischaracterize your earlier behavior and posts in the thread.

[Demainer]

This is mostly motte and bailey now, there's no real point of reference and it's just pure revisionism.

[Demainer]

Please explain how Dem/Ivy scum team is both the most likely possibility, and one you feel certain to the point of declaring you'd vote for me (but not actually doing it), and somehow also a low-ish possibility at the same time.

Once again, YOUR ACTIONS/INACTIONS have changed my read of you since last night. Sort-of-threatening to vote you was mostly to see how you'd react. I could have actually put that vote down, but I felt like it wasn't necessary to get a reaction from you.

But more importantly, I tend not to vote while I'm a viable elim candidate because it jostles my wagon and makes the movements harder to read. In this circumstance, I probably won't put a vote down except to prevent no-elim, unless (against my expectations) I cease to be a viable elim candidate.

You rely on your own meta to explain why you don't vote, but you can't explain why you're not w/w with ivy?

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

[Demainer]

I'm starting to reconsider my read on luke. His last few posts do not give me town vibes at all.

I also have second thoughts about the ahri spew.

[Demainer]

But, I don't find ivy/luke a likely pair at all. Feels weird.

[Demainer]

luke has been giving me good vibes in general for most of the game, but the last few posts are weird.

[Demainer]

If scum have paired goons, they can easily openwolf at this point. So the question is whether they have a blocker or not.

[Demainer]

Interactions don't seem rehearsed.

[Demainer]

If blocker, then ivy.

If not, then the options are much broader. I haven't considered sau pairings, and bell's limited activity (along with noncommittal posting) doesn't help.

[Demainer]

What do you mean?

[Demainer]

Please quote where I said ivy/ff is my solve.

[Demainer]

I can see luke openwolfing if it's a goon pair game. Brave play, but possible.

[Demainer]

As I said (or complained) earlier, there just has to be a conspiracy for everything.

[Demainer]

I still don't find it likely luke is scum, but he's no longer locktown for me.

[Demainer]

bellllllllllllllll where art thou

[Demainer]

Where's my vote? Or at least, where have I said my vote's going to be?

[Demainer]

There's a difference between reconsidering whether someone is scum, and outright claiming someone is a dw in a post that is markedly different from those before, and which clearly carries an agenda instead of genuinely sharing thoughts on things.

[Demainer]

Not only did you stuff the luke = dw thing in your post, you also forced the dem/ivy "exposed" bus which makes almost no sense, then you wrapped it all up with "dem has to be w/w with ivy/luke, so I'm voting him".

The only way that forms a coherent train of thought is if you've already arrived at the ending argument, and you're designing the rest of the post from that.

[Demainer]

Going through your iso, that post makes very little sense if I just stopped there, and didn't read your subsequent lampshade posts.

[Demainer]

Where's my vote? Or at least, where have I said my vote's going to be?

I'm not part of your solve? what the fuck have been doing all day?

Have I or have you?

[Demainer]

I can see luke openwolfing if it's a goon pair game. Brave play, but possible.

What does it mean to be "openwolfing"?

At this point, I am really most interested in getting Egix and Clasko's opinions. So hopefully they check in soon lol

Scum in control and just playing a powerful game in general.

[Demainer]

Where's my vote? Or at least, where have I said my vote's going to be?

I'm not part of your solve? what the fuck have been doing all day?

Have I or have you?

Sorry. What have you been doing all day? I feel like you've taken exception to every single post I've made, regardless of whether my read of you was moving townward or scumward. And those questions: why aren't I scum with Ivy, especially asking for meta reasons for it. I have about 10 very recent games on site that are here for you to peruse if you are actually interested in my meta.

But there's not time for that kind of meta-dig and I'm not particularly fretting about survival here. Surviving, especially as a problematic slot, which YOU HAVE BEEN PUSHING ALL DAY, isn't necessarily pro-town-wincon.

I thought our exchange was very nice.

The original question on ivy wasn't metabased, I was more interested in your analysis of end/your interactions with ivy in this game. Though for the most part all I got was lamist, so I suppose getting a metabased response is still better than nothing.

[Demainer]

Sau is the last piece of the puzzle for me, without some sort of read on that slot, there's too much uncertainty involved.

[Demainer]

My tone probably has more to do with my mood and energy levels irl. Sorry if I come off as insulting.

I'm not interested in an intentional miselim, it doesn't help anyone. If ivy somehow flips town, which I doubt, but if that's truly the case, then I definitely need to reconsider my position on luke.

For now, I feel ivy is the scummiest of everyone alive, and her flipping either town or scum will also give us good info on how to proceed.

[Demainer]

He could be bussing I guess, but Ivy seems the easy miselim. Nobody seems against it which makes me feel gross.

The vote count begs to differ.

[Demainer]

False dilemma.

[Demainer]

I'm interested to know what apparent timezone I'm in.

[Demainer]

3h left and I'm the consensus elim anyway, so I may as well post legacy reads.

[Demainer]

I may not be here eod, but I'll try.

[Demainer]

Sorry if I'm taking a bit of time to post my reads, irl is totally turned to shit for me rn ngl, so juggling several things at the same time. I am still trying to properly iso.

[Demainer]

Egix/Clasko: Confirmed town.
Ivy/ff: Ivy is scum, so I've spent of my time finding the partner. ff makes sense if there's a scumblocker, they have to avoid an elim today or it's def over for them. I can see ff having partner equity with ivy, ff has spent most of the day all over the place and not settling down on anyone in particular, most of it is just performative. This could be villagery behavior, but it could just as likely be scum misdirection. I also don't like the method with which she's going about her reads, it doesn't feel villagery to me at all, too forced.
Ivy/bell: I can see bell here too, but it's mostly just confbias. Same w/ end. But, this has to be the second most likely pair w/ ivy. I don't see much partner equity here, if bell is scum, it's much more likely with either ff or luke.
Ivy/luke: Nah.
Bell/luke: Possible goon pair play, but only because it makes sense in reverse.
Bell/ff: Didn't even think this was worth considering just based on sau/end, but now that both have been replaced, the replacement multi isos are interesting. If ivy flips town, ff is my next sr, I can totally see bell/ff pairing.
ff/luke: A lot of the interaction and accusations made by both of them make sense if this is the scumteam. And this is also one of the reasons why an ivy flip would be very helpful in determining alignments, even if she doesn't flip scum.
In short ivy - ff - luke - bell

Anyway I will be gone now. Please hammer.

I'm staying on ivy till the end, it's one of us tdome time.