VOTE: Demainer for immediately bandwagonning
newbie 2060: creatures, game ofer
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No. Endless dark hasn't said anything, so I don't any kind of read on him. We are in the random voting section of the game rn, and you joining a vote seemed as good of a reason as any lolIn post 10, Demainer wrote:Are you trying to defend endlessdark?- Lukewarm
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VOTE: whemestar
Only person I have gotten scum vibes from. His "voting for the same thing is something we don't want" while simultaneously joining a wagon felt off to me lol.
Btw, today is my husbands birthday, so I probably won't check this forum again until in the morning. Promise to be more after that tho- Lukewarm
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For me, it wasn't that he was contradicting himself. It just felt like he was contributing to an early wagon, while leaving a backdoor way to be able to say on day 2 "come on guys, IIn post 65, Egix96 wrote:Is Wheme simply being voted for making an apparent self-contradiction in his first post? Personally, I'm not finding that to be an issue, on a "scum would be more careful about contradicting themselves" level.toldyou not to keep voting for this guy."
Admittedly its not a ton to go on, but its day 1, and its the strongest read I have so far.
Thanks, we had a really good day yesterday!In post 44, Clasko wrote:Whoops! Also, off-topic, but:
Hope it's a good one~In post 36, Lukewarm wrote:Btw, today is my husbands birthday, so I probably won't check this forum again until in the morning. Promise to be more after that tho- Lukewarm
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My scumreads are Whemestar, Ivyeo and Clasko.
I explained my reasoning for Whemestar earlier.
Ivyeo does not seem to be contributing much to the conversation, and what they are sending is very wishy-washy. Their messages so far have been a vote, a quick unvote, and then this one:
They just seem like they are being overly cautious, which I feel is more likely with a scum then a town.In post 56, Ivyeo wrote:Whilst I do see the scummyness in Wheme's posts, I'm not sure we want to cut Day 1 discussion to right here.
Clasko hardly said anything until someone questioned it, then he town-read whemestar (my biggest scum vibes) because
And I don't understand the logic. Why would deducing that they are not BOTH scum automatically mean that neither one is?In post 86, Clasko wrote:their argument feels cyclical and non-scripted = less chance to be W v. W
I am town reading Demainer using Clasko's logic. It does not seem like a scum v scum conversation, and I think that whemestar is the more likely scum of the pair.- Lukewarm
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Yes its page 5 (well 6 now), but we are also on the 6th irl day for our in game Day 1. Maybe I am just not accustomed to the pacing of games on this site, but it feels like we are approaching the point where we just have to pick someone. Like there is only so much info we can really gain in day 1 until we force someone to claim, no?In post 112, WhemeStar wrote:I don’t like how you are set on me being the flip on page 5
I am getting pretty antsy for us to l-1 someone just so we can gain new info. Force someone to claim their role, then decide if we want to actually hammer the person based on what they claim. I mean if we wait to much longer, then if we L-1 someone, and decide we shouldn't hammer them, we won't even have long to form a new wagon.
I am not necessarily saying that I think it needs to be you, I would be happy for us to L-1 anyone on my scumread list tbh, so for now, I am gonna be on the biggest wagon between Whemestar, Ivyeo and Clasko.
VOTE: Ivyeo because I have sat on the Whemestar wagon for a while, and the Ivyeo wagon is the same size, so might as well mix it up lol- Lukewarm
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No, I do not want multiple people to claim their roles, but I do think that it is important that we vote someone before the day is over, but there are quite a few steps to get us from here to there.In post 139, Demainer wrote:I don't understand why we need role claims so early in the game, it's only going to hurt town? Unless there are special mechanics in this setup I'm not aware of.
First we L-1 the person we most suspect to be scum, at which point that person (and only that person), should claim their role. Then we either hammer that person, or if their claim causes us to rethink the vote, we have to target someone else.
To me (and again, it might just be a different pacing on this site then what I am used to) it seems like we have hit a point where we are just treading water, and at some point we need to pick a direction to go. I don't want us to tread water so long that we don't have time to go through all of the steps, especially if we decide to rethink the vote.- Lukewarm
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In post 141, Egix96 wrote: Those three names can't all be scum at once, so Luke, do you think any of them are particularly more likely to be scum than the others?
My first preference was Whemestar, which is why I had a vote against him for the last 4 days, but it feels like that wagon was not gaining any steam.In post 142, Ivyeo wrote: Do you not have preferences between the three of us? Your post makes it seem as though you just want to eliminate someone rather than anyone in specific, and you gave the three names that town appears to be most willing to eliminate right now.
I feel like a no-lynch day 1 is more detrimental to town then a mislynch would be, due the the deprivation of information. So, if I cannot convince the rest of town to L-1 Whemestar, I would settle for one of the others.- Lukewarm
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You might be reading a bit of impatience as summiness to be honest.In post 139, Demainer wrote: Not getting town vibes from that recent post.
In the past, I have played Mafia in a Discord server, and I hardly ever saw day 1 last longer then 3 days IRL, and never longer then 4. Here we are on day 6 irl and there is no sign of anyone reaching L-1 any time soon lol
This is my first game on this site, which is why I keep saying it might just be difference in pace between sites.- Lukewarm
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If we do something today, we will have plenty of time. My concern was more if we didn't start moving towards an L-1 today.In post 147, Ivyeo wrote: We still have 3 days, is that not enough time to retread the vote? You act as though we're on last day. You also still haven't answered if you have a preference between the two current wagons.
If we take like 8 days to get one person to L-1, I would be concerned only having 2 days to rebuild a whole wagon from scratch. We seem like a slow moving lobby lol.- Lukewarm
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You know, this somehow makes me think you are less likely to be scum. Which is weird because, I scum read you at first for being wishy-washy, but now I am going to town read you for the same thing lol. When you voted Whemestar, I was surprised to see someone who previously seemed wishy washy, to suddenly commit and agree with me.In post 148, Ivyeo wrote:UNVOTE:
Actually on second thought, I want to hear more form Luke here first before placing my vote
But then you unvoted, so your wishy-washy-ness is at least consistent
I think I'm actually removing you from my list of scum reads, and I'm down to Whemestar and Clasko. Those two would actually work as a pair, with Clasko's logic that confused me actually being an attempt to pull suspicion off of Whemestar.- Lukewarm
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In post 179, Demainer wrote:
What would be the point of forcing claims right now?In post 174, endlessdark wrote:
What are you guys talking about? Lukewarm's post is sensible. The person we're eliminating obviously has to claim and it's useful information for the town. There's no getting around this and it's not a scummy thing to push the town into action a bit.In post 139, Demainer wrote:I don't understand why we need role claims so early in the game, it's only going to hurt town? Unless there are special mechanics in this setup I'm not aware of.
Not getting town vibes from that recent post.
Everyone is going to claim vanilla except for the two power roles. How does that help town at all?
Town is more likely to win if we lynch someone day 1 compared to a no-lynch, even if its a mislynch. So I am speaking with the mindset thatis getting lynched today. If that is happening, we should give that person a chance to claim, no?someone
I am unsure what you are trying to say. Do you think that nolynch is a reasonable choice? Do think that we should not give someone a chance to claim before we hammer? I am just confused how you imagine the day playing out, without 1 person claiming their role.- Lukewarm
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Now you are just putting words in my mouth, I never said we should just push multiple people to L-1 to get claims.In post 182, Demainer wrote:This sounds like you were advocating for pushing other players to E-1 and forcing them to claim, rather than simply giving a chance to the then E-1 target to claim.
Even in the quote you bolded and underlined, I outlined a course of action where we get exactly one person to L-1, they claim, and then we discuss whether or not to hammer. So most likely one person claims today, and at max 2 if we decide not to hammer the first person. I feel that I have been pretty clear on that tbh.- Lukewarm
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In post 190, Saudade wrote:Does no one else share my feelings of icky against Dem??
I've been back and forth on him to be honest. Something about his posts have been pinging me asoff, but I have been back and forth between it being scuminess or him being new.
Right now, I think that I am most leaning towards it being Clasko, and that earlier in the conversation when he was trying to clear Whemestar and Deaminer (because he did not think they were W v W) he was trying to steer the conversation away from his partner. I am not sure which one that is, but I had been leaning more towards Whemestar.- Lukewarm
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...
I am not really happy with any of Ahri's posts. They have not said anything substantial, and half of their messages are memeing about being scum.
So I feel like there are two possibilities, they are scum trying to hide behind the meme of it all, or they are a town player that is not actually contributing to finding the mafia...
I am actually leaning more towards them being an unhelpful town, but either way, I don't like it...- Lukewarm
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@Mod I am a little unsure about the dead line after reading your last update. It said you were adding 24 hours, but the countdown is still pointing to the day ending in 3 hours. I don't want to mess up just because I don't understand the timer
If they day ends in 3 hours, I would like to hammer Whemestar now, because I'm off to bed and will not be back on before the dead line
VOTE: timer dependent, whemestar
If we still have 27 hours, then :
WhemeStar I am prepared to hammer when I log on tomorrow, so go ahead and claim your role.- Lukewarm
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UNVOTE:
In post 253, Lukewarm wrote: WhemeStar I am prepared to hammer when I log on tomorrow, so go ahead and claim your role.- Lukewarm
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I unvoted from you, so you are not longer at e-1In post 270, Ahri wrote: hey newer players i'll probably post a full death message upon 5 hours but if you're planning on hammering me b4 then just type smth like
INTENT TO HAMMER
When I logged on today, both whemestar and ahri were at e-1, but no one else has stated an intent to hammer. This leads me to believe that one of the two of you is most likely actually scum (and that person's partner is already targeting the other person).In post 269, WhemeStar wrote:
I’m confusedIn post 268, Lukewarm wrote:UNVOTE:
In post 253, Lukewarm wrote: WhemeStar I am prepared to hammer when I log on tomorrow, so go ahead and claim your role.
Are you still planning on hammering me?
I am not as confident as you can possibly be on day 1, that either you or Ahri are scum (and that their partner is already on the other person's wagon).
And if I am comparing the two of you, I am more suspicious of you. So I INTEND TO HAMMER you today.- Lukewarm
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Whemestar, if you really are town, I'm sorry, but out of you and Ahri I am still most suspicious of you, and I don't think there is time for us to change directions anymore to anyone else.
I have plans IRL, so I won't be back on until after the deadline, so I am going to go ahead and Hammer
VOTE: Whemestar- Lukewarm
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that post didn't age well at allIn post 271, Lukewarm wrote: I am now as confident as you can possibly be on day 1, that either you or Ahri are scum
But that leaves me really confused as to why they would have targeted Ahri.- Lukewarm
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How does that incriminate the people on Ahri's wagon?In post 287, Clasko wrote:... Hunting for PR, or an attempt to incriminate the people on Ahri's wagon, perhaps?- Lukewarm
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I don't think I expressed my opinion as well as I could have in that post.In post 298, Egix96 wrote: However, what I don't get is why you TR someone using logic you don't understand - especially since the stance you took here is... not the best look.
There were two points in Clasko's post:
-The conversation between Wheme and Demainer did not look like a scum v scum conversation
-therefore both of them were town
I read his comment, and I agreed with the first point, it did not seem like a scum v scum conversation (which turns out was true) But I disagreed with / did not understand why we would then jump to saying both were town.
So I took the part I agreed with, and re-evaluated with the lens of "it is not both demainer AND whemestar." After reading back I thought Wheme seemed more suspicious, and moved forward trying to think who Wheme's partner could be.
But now that Wheme flipped town, that logic no longer protects Demainer. So I voted him lol
Tldr; I did not think it could be BOTH Wheme and Demainer, and since I was more suspicious of Wheme that would indicate that it was not Demainer. But the moment Wheme flipped town, that opened Demainer back up for suspicion.- Lukewarm
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Okay, I read the thread back from the beginning, and here are my reads for everyone in the game, in order from most maf lean to most town lean. I was honestly really back and forth on which to place at the top between these two, so I will say they are tied at the top.
Scum leans:
Clasko / Demainer
Neutral reads, could go either way:
Ivyeo
Saudade
Town lean:
Endlessdark
Strong town lean:
Egix96
Me (obviously lol)- Lukewarm
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In post 309, Demainer wrote: No one voted for her because they thought she was scum. Everyone made it clear that it was a vote for inactivity. And some even townread her for not posting.
Instead of continuing on a tangent and avoiding the discussion today, why not actually share your thoughts on other people?
Analyzing the mafia kill from the night before is definitely a valid topic for discussion, not sure what you're going on about tbh. - I feel like Ahri being killed off by scum (and flipping vanilla town) was better for town then if the scum had just shot randomly. Which does make me curious why they targeted her.
Spoiler:
That I can agree with. So I looked back, and am trying to analyze why they would have targeted Ahri, and these are my theories.In post 308, Egix96 wrote:It's either 0 IQ or 200 IQ.
1) They thought she was a power role
Spoiler:
2) They were both on the Wheme's wagon.
Spoiler:
I have no way to know what logic they actually used, but for me, this is a +1 on my mafia scale for everyone on Wheme's wagon. That is not enough to change anyone's tier for me, so my prior tier (306), and my vote on demainer still stands.- Lukewarm
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He was probably referencing 86 where Clasko town read both wheme and demainer, something that I pointed out did not make sense to me (he has later tried to clear this up). During Day 1, it seemed like Clasko was using faulty logic to clear both Wheme and Demainer, which in turn made me suspicious that he was covering for his partner. From my pov, it can still be that Clasko was trying to cover for Demainer.In post 315, Egix96 wrote:
Which post was the "slip"? I thought I would notice it when I finished re-reading, but I didn't.In post 303, Demainer wrote:Clasko: I went into the D1 flip thinking he was lockscum, but now I've re-iso'd him he comes off as town. It's only a lean though. His "slip" on me and Wheme does not read scum to me now, and his D2 activity has been giving me good vibes as well, I see someone trying to figure things out rather than trying to force town into a conclusion.
But from Demainer's point of view he would have no reason to be suspicious of Clasko for clearing both of them, because he would now know that both were clear after Wheme flipped town.- Lukewarm
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Uhhhh. That is not really true at all. Limited posting can very much indicate that someone is scum because they are scared they might slip up if they post too much. And I have seen people meme being scum, while actually being scum, as a way to avoid being voted out. I was really on the fence on Ahri's alignment. Just because you (apparently) held no suspicion towards her, does not mean that no one else did.In post 316, Demainer wrote: And Ahri was selected as the scum kill because she was largely ignored in the thread, no one had any "reason" to take her out. We can't get anything from her death/flip.
I definitely gained information when she flipped. So your certainty that we gained nothing when Ahri flipped makes me even more suspicious of you, because scum would have already known her alignment.
And you trying to talk people out of analyzing the mafia's night kill isn't helping that perception either.- Lukewarm
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Here is where you first called talking about Ahri being targeted as a "tangent"In post 320, Demainer wrote:
Please point to where I've asked someone to stop analyzing mafia's night kill last night.In post 318, Lukewarm wrote:And you trying to talk people out of analyzing the mafia's night kill isn't helping that perception either.In post 309, Demainer wrote: No one voted for her because they thought she was scum. Everyone made it clear that it was a vote for inactivity. And some even townread her for not posting.
Instead of continuing on a tangent and avoiding the discussion today, why not actually share your thoughts on other people?- Lukewarm
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I have done a full ISO for you Demainer, and I cannot find a single post that does not rub me the wrong way tbh.
Post 10 - combative over a RVS vote on you
Post 52, post 55 A lot of posts pushing on Wheme, including accusing him of being defensive at e-1 (when you were defensive / combative after a single vote landed on you). And a weird line about a vote not actually happening day 1
Post 139, post 179, post 181, post 182 These all felt like you were purposefully misunderstanding me. Like even after I clarified, and multiple other players commented that they understood what I was saying.
And now that I am reading back through after our most recent interactions today, where you repeatedly have said "no one was suspicious of Ahri," a couple of posts stood out to me:
209where I said I was worried Ahri could be scum
and 183 where YOU said Ahri "gave you bad vibes."
And today you keep trying to insist that Ahri being targeted by the mafia was bad for the town, despite many people saying that it seemed like a poor decision from the mafia. Almost like you are trying to defend your own decision.- Lukewarm
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I also feel like I want to address 303 Like, i think this one has earned its own post.
I did not catch this at first, because Wheme+Clasko was my read day 1. But right now, when I am ISOing you I spotted it. You never once actually said that you suspected that combination on Day 1. You pushed Wheme pretty hard, but you never said you thought he was partnered with Clasko.In post 303, Demainer wrote:If you're scumreading me for apologizing to Wheme, then so be it, it's your choice. I was convinced our scum team was Wheme + Clasko, but with Wheme flipping town I've gone back to the drawing board and re-iso'd everyone.
...
Clasko: I went into the D1 flip thinking he was lockscum, but now I've re-iso'd him he comes off as town. It's only a lean though. His "slip" on me and Wheme does not read scum to me now, and his D2 activity has been giving me good vibes as well, I see someone trying to figure things out rather than trying to force town into a conclusion.
In 99 Endlessdark said he suspected Wheme+Clasko. In 152 I said I was supicious of Wheme+Clasko.
But you, you never said that that was your suspicion. Not even to agree with me or endless dark.
So now I am supposed to believe that you were "convinced" it was him, but you never once said it, even to agree with multiple other people saying it. And the first time you ever thought to share that suspicion was in a post that you tried to CLEAR Clasko.
I'm not buying it. The more I read over all of the messages, and reread them, the more I am convincing myself that it is Demainer + Clasko. So I think it is going to take a power role giving me more information to go off of or a major slip up to change my mind at this point.
VOTE: Demainer- Lukewarm
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hmmm. I'm not sure what I am supposed to take from this this tbh. Is being high supposed to indicate more likely to be town? or of being scum? or neither?In post 332, Bell wrote:Caught up.
People that care but might be good scum:
Lukewarm.
Egix.
People that don't seem to care in order of enthusiasm.
Endless dark
Demainer
Ivymeo.
Clasko
I am also unsure how you came up with your ranking, specifically why you have Demainer so low, when according to the activity overview, Demainer has the most posts of any living player (at 44).
Would you care to elaborate?- Lukewarm
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Ivyeo, I would love to hear more from you as wellIn post 331, Ivyeo wrote:Imma just reread the whole game and give some thoughts, I feel a bit lost right now- Lukewarm
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Yay! People are talking!
(Well except Clasko)
.... I honestly don't understand how you can mention every single person except me and Clasko. How are you clearing Clasko so strongly? It just doesn't make sense. You read Ivy as scum because they were not posting much, but then Clasko has posted the least of everyone, and he is one of you strongest town reads?In post 340, Demainer wrote:With Saudade and endless both disappearing and not posting for a while, it's a bit difficult to figure out the last scum. I can see Egix and Saudade being w/w with Ivyeo.
And I outlined a lot of issues I have had in your posts, and you are completely ignoring everything I said? lol
Does Saudade's vote transfer to Bell until they unvote? If so, Demainer is at e-1 now.In post 341, Ivyeo wrote: VOTE: Demainer
I'll also try to rereread for a read (god awful sentece) on the others tomorrow, for now it's 5am and I haven't slept aaaaaaaaa- Lukewarm
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I would not say that I have been tunneling on Demainer, at least not until recently lol. Day 1, I was juggling a lot of suspicions. But since Day2 has started, the conversation has been largely dead and I have read, and re-read, and re-read the Day 1 chat. And he is my strongest read by far, with multiple posts that felt anti-town. I'd even like to point you to my statement here:In post 344, Clasko wrote:Luke- I'm getting very bad vibes from this man. I don't see someone who is weighing all of the options of who Mafia is at all, and is instead just going all-out on Demainer. Admittedly he has reason to, some of which I agree with and some I do not, and whilst I liked the fact he made a read list, this was counter-balanced by not giving reasonings for any of the placements, outside of the top two, which he has explained elsewhere. His gameplay is good (driving forward, reviving a sluggish game), but I'm going to err on the side of him being a good mafia player who happened to roll Mafia here:
VOTE: Lukewarm
The chat was dead, and I had read all of the messages many times over, and I felt like there was nothing else for me to gain from re-reading anymore. So it was gonna take some new info for me to do anything else lol.In post 326, Lukewarm wrote:So I think it is going to take a power role giving me more information to go off of or a major slip up to change my mind at this point]
But luckily, we just got some new info to work with!
This changes everything on how I would approach the game moving forward!In post 343, Clasko wrote: I am a Town Cop - I investigated Egix96 last night, and he is confirmed Town. Dunno if this is the correct play, but here we are.
Two possible Mafia in these five, provided I don't get CC'd:
So the first thing we need to do is see if anyone is gonna counter claim. And remember, there is a limited combination of abilities in this set up. The only way Clasko can be a cop is if we are in a Cop+Doctor or a Solo Cop set up.
So if you have any power other then Doctor (Cop, Jailkeeper, Tracker, Friendly Neighbor, or a Mason) then you can counter claim against him. If you are a Doctor, please do not reveal yourself.- Lukewarm
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I really think that we should wait to see if there is a counter claim, before we vote based on Clasko's information.
Speaking of which UNVOTE:- Lukewarm
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Okay, I have been thinking about the two possibilities,
1)Clasko is fake claiming
If someone counter claims Clasko, then I am leaning towards if being Clasko + Demainer, but I will need to see who counter claims to really form a hard opinion.
2)Clasko is the cop
That clears Clasko and Egix.
Leaving: - Bell - Demainer - Endlessdark slot - Ivyeo - Me
If no one counter claims Clasko, I am less pressed on it being Demainer, because a good portion of my suspicion of him came from Demainer and Clasko both appearing to clear / pull suspicion off of one another. Those worries would be assuaged.
To me, that would indicate that there is 0 to 1 scum between Demainer and Ivy. I do not see Demainer and Ivy being a pair, they have both voted the other, and in Demainer's case at least, it was done before there would be a need for scum to bus one another.
That would mean that there must be 1 to 2 scum between Bell and Endless dark (from my PoV, I don't need to consider me as an option lol) Before this analysis, I had Saudede listed higher on my scum/town scale, but now I am looking back under the assumption that at least one of Saudede or Endlessdark were scum. I noticed that Saudede made it clear that he did not think it was Ahri or Wheme on Day 1, and tried to push the vote towards Demainer. This kinda makes me a bit less suspicious of him seeing as how both Ahri and Wheme did in fact flip town. That narrows the gap, so I now have him and endless at about the same place for me.
So now I am looking back at Bell/Saudede's posts and Endless's posts based on the assumption that one of them is bad, and with that in mind the possible pairs from my PoV mind are:
- Clasko + Demainer (if Clasko is CC)
Endlessdark+ almost anyone Like I could see him paired with Ivy/Demainer/orSaudede
SaudedeBell + Ivy
Endlessdarkhave not yet chimed in- Lukewarm
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At this point, enough people have commented without anyone counter claiming Clasko, that I am going to trust his claim.
That means Clasko and Egix are 100% clear, and I know I am clear, so our two scum are found somewhere in the mix of :
- Demainer, Ivy, and out new friends Bell and fferyllt.
I think the mafia teams that make the most sense to me are
-Bell + Ivy
-fferylly + Ivy
-fferylly + demainer
I am going to do a break down of how I am imaging the different possibilities playing out
Spoiler:
Therefore, I think that our best option moving forward would be to target either Ivy or fferylly today (sorry, I know you just got here)
This logic all hinges on people agreeing that those are the three possible pairs of course, but for now I think I am going to say
VOTE: Ivy- Lukewarm
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While either choice would work logically, I am much more leaning towards voting out Ivy today. I mean you have generated more discussions in the like 3 hours you have been in the game, then Ivy has generated in the whole of Day 2. Regardless of your alignment, keeping you in the game seems more likely to keep the thread from dying lolIn post 367, fferyllt wrote:
I don't totally hate the possibility of being mis-elimed as long as I get plenty of time (e.g., a good sized chunk of this 48 hour extension) to analyze the available (sparse-ish) data and interact with the player list. But, I'll probably get pretty snarky if it does happen.In post 364, Lukewarm wrote:Therefore, I think that our best option moving forward would be to target either Ivy or fferylly today (sorry, I know you just got here)
Even though I am no longer advocating we vote you out, I still gotta say, there is something about your posts that just feel...In post 368, Demainer wrote: I am quite certain on Ahri being an anti-spew kill, not a pr hunt. But, in either case, whether it's for antispew or pr, neither option is obvious to a newbie. There are more obvious targets in the thread, like Luke, who was both active and widely tr, or an se. Killing a newbie who has barely posted anything at all isn't something I'd expect from a 2x newbie team.
With Egix cleared by Clasko, that leaves saudade. while i see endless being on the team as well as it seems like he has some experience with this as well, I'm leaning most towards saudade/ivyeo.off... to me lol- Lukewarm
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Hmmm. Much to think about. My issue is that the people I am most suspicious of, I can not imagine being a team. When I read through the ISOs, Ivy and Demainer both feel very scummy to me, but Demainer came out the gate on Day 2 pushing Ivy. So that tells me that I am definitely wrong on (at least) one of my scum reads. Now I feel like I am second guessing myself.
fferyllt has been posting a lot, which I really appreciate because I did not like how slow this thread has been moving, but I know that does not make her town.
Before she replaced in, Egix, a confirmed town, made post 346 where he said her slot must be scum from his PoV (along side either demainer or ivy). So if she replaced in as scum, and that was the current game state, she would need to talk a lot and lead the town a bit in order to shift that suspicion away from her slot. Her post 369 pinged me a little bit, that she may be trying to lead the conversation to clear suspicion off of herself. Demainer/Ivy really does not make sense as a pair to me, but she still put that out there. Feels like a "let me suggest pairs that do not include me" instead of "lets find the most suspicious pair." If she had placed in as town, I feel like it is more make more sense to focus in on Bell being the scum member paired with Demainer/Ivy.
So I am leaning towards fferyllt being scum.
I looked back at both Ivy and Demainer's iso, to compare their comments before and after Bell and fferlly replaced in, so see if there was a change in their posts based on them gaining a new scum partner. Ivy's post seemed consistent. Still minimal, and non-committal. Which is bad, but it did not feel like she had a new partner trying to give her advice. Demainer's posts on the other hand... they feel the same after bell replaced in, but starting after fferyllt joined do feel a bit different tome. And post 426 feels more like it is designed to keep the two of them being paired together rather then trying to help scum/town read fferllt.
So I am leaning towards the scum team being fferyllt + Demainer
UNVOTE: Ivy- Lukewarm
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VOTE: fferyllt
They have posted so much information/analysis, and then their final conclusion was
Which I honestly cannot understand how a town could come to either one of those final conclusions. Either way, you have to assume that one of the scum players came into day 2 ready to bus their partner for no reason. Either Demainer bussing Ivy or me bussing Demainer. Your final pairs make 0 sense to me as town, so I am therefore left to assume that you are scum who was put into a hard position (you replaced into a slot that was already under fire from a confirmed town).In post 449, fferyllt wrote:So, my theories are: {Demainer, Ivy}, {Demainer, Lukewarm} which leads to me voting Demainer today.
This also feels to me like an attempt to reverse phycology the group into not killing you, but I actually agree with this sentence.In post 471, fferyllt wrote:you're a small but significant part of my feeling that miseliming me today is better for town than me being alive,
Even if we are wrong (although I don't think we are), I think that sets us up to win (referring back to my post 364- Lukewarm
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My issue is not that you are suspicious of me (although I don't fully understand your logic to do so) but the fact that you paired me with Demainer.
Using the same logic you used with egix and with Demainer, I know this isn't true because my role pm said otherwise, so you are currently scumreading town.In post 480, fferyllt wrote: You-Luke - strongest likelihood. Your Ivy vote makes sense and your me-discredits make sense
So either you are scum and making accusations that are not logical because you are trying to manipulate the thread. Or you have some kind of logic that (is wrong) and has not been explained well to the thread.
So if you want me to consider that you might be a mistaken town and not scum, you gotta make your conclusion make some sort of logical sense.
Looking at my iso, starting with post 294 and especially (306 / 325 / 326).
If you think me + Demainer are the most likely pair, why would I have said those things?
Do you think I was bussing him? Why would I need to bus him so early and aggressively?
Do you think I was distancing? Do you think I would be able to walk back posts 325/326 at any point?- Lukewarm
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I asked if you thought I could walk back posts 325 and 326, you quoted back 294.In post 495, fferyllt wrote:
Do I think you could back away from this post?In post 489, Lukewarm wrote: Do you think I was distancing? Do you think I would be able to walk back posts 325/326 at any point?
Your first post of day 2? Yes, I do, though I think inexperienced scum would be reluctant to bus like that. It's a strange thing about scum vs town votes. Scum tend to worry about what it will look like if they change their minds. Town just takes in the data, and if the data points them in a different direction, they change direction. I used to describe the difference as being hedgy vs being waffly.
Your vote isn't hedgy, and that's an argument against my solve.
I meant this
This is where the game state was when I made that postIn post 326, Lukewarm wrote:I'm not buying it. The more I read over all of the messages, and reread them, the more I am convincing myself that it is Demainer + Clasko. So I think it is going to take a power role giving me more information to go off of or a major slip up to change my mind at this point.
VOTE: Demainer
Egix: Voted Ivy
Demainer: Voted Ivy
Endlessdark: No vote
Clasko: No vote
Ivy: No Vote
Saudede: Voted Demainer, but then had requested to be replaced. So where his replacement would go was uncertain.
Other then me, there was only one person voting against Demainer, and that person was getting ready to leave the game. If I were partnered with Demainer, why would have I have put so much effort in to building a case against him (Posts 325 and 326 if he were my partner? I mean I did a full iso of him, and pointed outmany, manyposts against him. Why would I have bussed him there?
I cannot come up with a reason, therefore I cannot understand your conclusion that me+demainer is the most likely scum pair in your PoV. It makes no sense to me from a town PoV.
But from a scum PoV, you could be trying to get Demainer voted out. He flips scum. You get to say "see I was right" and try to steer the conversation again tomorrow. Or alternatively, you fail to push out Demainer, and YOU get voted out. That leaves Demainer able to claim "see the scum tried really hard to push me out yesterday"
I cannot find a logical way for a town to make the conclusion that you made. I can come up with a logical explanation why a scum would push this particular pair. Therefore, I am left to conclude that you are scum.- Lukewarm
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What does it mean to be "openwolfing"?In post 507, Demainer wrote:I can see luke openwolfing if it's a goon pair game. Brave play, but possible.
At this point, I am really most interested in getting Egix and Clasko's opinions. So hopefully they check in soon lol- Lukewarm
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@fferyllt You say this, but you still are ignoring the question I have asked you about how you came to your conclusion. In your mind, how does it make sense for me and demainer to be scum, AND for me to have made post 325 + 326 in the game state that they were made. What is the thought process that you have used to allow those two things to co-exist in your read?In post 523, fferyllt wrote:I don't care nearly as much about your read of me as I do about reading you correctly.
@everyone I was actually thinking about this, why would fferyllt (as scum) make the pair Me+Demainer?. If I am right, and the team is ff + Demainer, and they were trying to come up with a plan of who to push while bussing demainer, then their options were : [Demainer+Ivy] [Demainer+Bell] [Demainer + me]In post 523, fferyllt wrote:It's certainly an uphill battle to push you and if I were scum, my flip would spew you insanely town.
Who every is place into the mafia accusation would come across as town once ff flipped scum. I have been widely town read by nearly every player (except Clasko for some reason), but Ivy and Bell have both been discussed as possible scum. So ff could have chosen me so that both Bell and Ivy would be under suspicion moving into Day 3.
Honestly fferyllt, you seem like a good/experienced player. So I analyzed how your play could help lead to a town win (and could not find it) then analyzed how your play could lead to a scum win, and this is the scenario I found:
Spoiler:
So if you are scum paired with demainer, accusing Me+Demainer has a logical reason behind it.- Lukewarm
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Oh my god. Reading the "whilst" thread made me feel physically sick to my stomach. I am going to pretend I did not read it, because the only way my brain wants to interpret it would mean that Clasko is scum, and our real town power role just did not counter claim him. I don't see a way that I can productively work towards a win if thats the case, so I am just going to ignore it, but I am actually nauseous right now. The worst possible outcome of this game would be for us to lose because our actual PR just didn't counter claim a scumIn post 532, fferyllt wrote:Put "whilst" in the thread search box at the top of the page and let me know if something catches your eye.
I am actually amazed that you were able to catch the weirdness of its usage while just reading through. That is mighty impressive.
Everyone else, for your own sanity, I would recommend you not actually search the thread for "whilst" lol- Lukewarm
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What vote are you suggesting I am against?In post 540, Bell wrote:Oh, Luke's against it now. Huh.
I currently think that the mafia pair is ff + demainer. Of the two, I think that ff is the one more capable of leading town's votes astray on subsequent days, therefore my preferred vote is ff.
If that wagon does not seem like it will pass, I think that a miselim on Ivy would still lead to a town win (see post 364), but I think a miselim on you could lead to a 50/50 situation in the future. If I cannot convince people to join me against the ff / demainer pair, I am willing to hammer Ivy right before the deadline if necessary.- Lukewarm
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I am not using any whilst logic moving forward, but this is what my brain jumped to when I first read the thread:In post 545, fferyllt wrote:
Sounds like you didn't see the thing that made me curious. And in fact the Clasko uses didn't stand out to me because I think his posting times fit a time zone where "whilst" is much more common than mine.In post 541, Lukewarm wrote:
Oh my god. Reading the "whilst" thread made me feel physically sick to my stomach. I am going to pretend I did not read it, because the only way my brain wants to interpret it would mean that Clasko is scum, and our real town power role just did not counter claim him. I don't see a way that I can productively work towards a win if thats the case, so I am just going to ignore it, but I am actually nauseous right now. The worst possible outcome of this game would be for us to lose because our actual PR just didn't counter claim a scumIn post 532, fferyllt wrote:Put "whilst" in the thread search box at the top of the page and let me know if something catches your eye.
I am actually amazed that you were able to catch the weirdness of its usage while just reading through. That is mighty impressive.
Everyone else, for your own sanity, I would recommend you not actually search the thread for "whilst" lol
Ivy's apparent timezone kinda fits too.
Demainer's apparent timezone possibilities doesn't appear to, but they only use the word once, I think. Maybe the sprinklings of whilst in this game are contagious? I sometimes temporarily pick up words I don't usually use due to people using them around me.
Whilst is not a word that is commonly used. But here are two people saying it repeatedly (clasko + ivy), and not only were they both using it, they were using it in very similar situations. Because it seems like a word people don't generally use, my brain said "this is a word that clasko really uses, and Ivyeo is picking it up from the mafia chat" or possibly vice versa.
But your timezone explanation makes much more sense lol- Lukewarm
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If you really are town, why are you avoiding answering my questions when I have been asked you to explain your read?In post 554, fferyllt wrote:And I think finding out that I'm town before elo is pro-town-wincon, so I'm not against being miselimed.
If I were scum with demainer, why would I have made posts 325 and 326 in the game state that those posts were made? If you cannot explain it, doesn't that break the me+demainer pair? You keep saying that you are going to flip town, and then we should look at your reads. If that is what is going to happen, shouldn't you work through the apparent contradiction here?
Of course me asking you this this many times will mean nothing when you flip scum- Lukewarm
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I can agree with this readIn post 573, Clasko wrote:then maybe there's two in Luke/Demain/FF.
I feel like you might have scum read me because I listed my most suspicious pair as Demainer+you. Which at the time, I was most supicious of demainer and you made the most sense as their partner. We have a lot more info to go off of now tho, so my opinion has changed to demainer+ff.
If you are suspicious of me, which of demainer or ff do you think I could be paired with?- Lukewarm
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If you think there is 2 between ff/demainer/me, and you don't think I would be paired with demainer, does that make ff your prefered vote?In post 580, Clasko wrote:
Not at all. It was very much in line with your D1 approach where you were suspicious of me over trying to protect WhemeStar, so I saw sense in you thinking similarly with me and Demainer. Even though I knew it held no water (because I knew I was town in both instances), I understood your rationale.In post 577, Lukewarm wrote:I feel like you might have scum read me because I listed my most suspicious pair as Demainer+you. Which at the time, I was most supicious of demainer and you made the most sense as their partner. We have a lot more info to go off of now tho, so my opinion has changed to demainer+ff.
If you are suspicious of me, which of demainer or ff do you think I could be paired with?
On the face of it, FF is the more likely pair. I can't see you bussing Demainer here early D2.
Bednowkthx.
That would leave it either being ff+me or ff+demainer, right?- Lukewarm
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Okay, this is my final take before we hit the dead line. Egix and Clasko are clear, and I after my most recent read through, I have joined the camp that Ivy is almost certainly town (there is actually one specific post that flipped my opinion, but I think I am going to hold on to that until tomorrow. She is not currently in the hot seat anyways). I am no longer willing to vote against Ivy. A mid elm on them was logically acceptable in an earlier post, when I was not in consideration for being scum, but Clasko and ff (and to a lesser extent, demainer) have all put my name out there.
That means that the 2 scum must be found in Me, fferyllt, demainer, and bell.
The possible pairings are: {Me+fferyllt} {Me+Demainer} {Me+Bell} {fferyllt+demainer} {fferyllt+bell} {demainer+bell}
I think that a couple of those should be able to be eliminated due to bussing too early day 1/2
{Me+Demainer} {demainer+bell}
Spoiler:
So now we are down to {Me+fferyllt} {Me+Bell} {fferyllt+demainer} {fferyllt+bell}
Let's analyze a vote for fferyllt.
Let's analyze a vote for demainer
And if we were to vote Bell
Finally, let's analyze a vote for me
From my PoV, the only dangerous choice to end today on is Bell. I think that the safest from all PoVs should be FF. I think that Demainer is a safe vote, because I am sure that he will flip scum, but I would understand Egix or Clasko being wary of this. I think I am an acceptable mis elim.
All that being said, I will not vote for bell, ivy, clasko, or egix.
My preference for the rest of us are as follows ff>demainer>me, and will hammer any one of these wagons at the last minute if needed.- Lukewarm
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In post 354, schadd_ wrote:fferylt replaces endlessdark. the day will end in (expired on 2021-04-17 12:00:00)- Lukewarm
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I meant I will stay on your wagon, but am willing to hammer either demainer or myself if needed lolIn post 613, fferyllt wrote:you can't hammer me! - Lukewarm
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