Micro 1003: Divide and Conquer - Game Over!

[Vanderscamp]

FIRST

[Vanderscamp]

Or bingle

Infinity prob!town unless she’s big brained it and is feeling brave

Can you explain this one if you haven't already?

[Vanderscamp]

Norwee i feel like u wouldn’t neighbourise me if u were scum

Given that you two are in the big group this seems pretty dubious

[Vanderscamp]

No face is pretty scummy but I'm pretty sure it's some kind of alt and I'm not sure how much of that accounts for that

[Vanderscamp]

guys

we r killing in the 6p hood today

because if we hit the scum in the 3p hood, the scum shoot one of the players in the 3p hood, and tomm we r back to trying to find the scum in the 6p hood.

but if we hit the scum in the 6p hood, the game is over and we win.

I feel like it's best to aim for the 3p hood until we hit mafia there, since we're guaranteed to be able to find the mafia in there at some point before we lose, and we get more info that way. It doesn't really matter that if we hit scum immediately there we win, since that's going to be true whether or not we spend some lynches in the 3p pool first.

[Vanderscamp]

killing the scum in the 3p hood doesn't actually get us closer to winning, we still have to find their partner even if we nail the scum, but if we find their partner the game is over.

This is very false since finding the scum in 3p obviously gets us closer to winning.
Finding the scum in 6p gets us closer to winning than 3p does, but that's balanced by being harder in the first place.

[Vanderscamp]

we should actually have the elim be decided by the 3p hood onto the 6p hood

because the scum in the 3p hood can't bus.

because if they bus the game is over

I don't like the idea of letting the lynch be dictated by a group of people that contains a large % of scum, especially since as you pointed out, the scum is unlikely to bus.
That just seems like a really efficient way to try and make sure we don't lynch scum.

[Vanderscamp]

no face is hard town btw

Why?

[Vanderscamp]

It's pretty surface level, tbh.

Of the players on this list, skitts and I are two of the people who are seen as particularly good at scum and skitts is literally the only person in the list who I would say is scary as town. Infinity putting herself in a neighborhood with both of us is pretty ballsy.

Ofc, skitts always scumreads townme.

It's also backwards. I'd totally have put a weak link into the little hood, because a weak link getting limmed in the big hood is game over for scum, and there's actually quite a bit of talent in this list, at least amongst those I recognize.

I think the strategy for this (if scum were thinking about it) is likely going to have been pretty player dependent.
I'd imagine if there's a scum here who is typically read very accurately by a town in this roleset, they would have been both put in the small neighborhood.
Is that true for any combo of you three?

[Vanderscamp]

It's pretty surface level, tbh.

Of the players on this list, skitts and I are two of the people who are seen as particularly good at scum and skitts is literally the only person in the list who I would say is scary as town. Infinity putting herself in a neighborhood with both of us is pretty ballsy.

Ofc, skitts always scumreads townme.

It's also backwards. I'd totally have put a weak link into the little hood, because a weak link getting limmed in the big hood is game over for scum, and there's actually quite a bit of talent in this list, at least amongst those I recognize.

I think the strategy for this (if scum were thinking about it) is likely going to have been pretty player dependent.
I'd imagine if there's a scum here who is typically read very accurately by a town in this roleset, they would have been both put in the small neighborhood.
Is that true for any combo of you three?

Maybe more importantly, is it true for any combo in the big group...
Because it would be extremely risky to put them both there I think.

[Vanderscamp]

we should actually have the elim be decided by the 3p hood onto the 6p hood

because the scum in the 3p hood can't bus.

because if they bus the game is over

I'm down to make this step 1, but we need to discuss afterwards.

Agreed that we're 100% killing in the big group today though.

I still don't understand this:
Can't we just lynch into the group of 3, potentially have NKs that make our decision into the group of 6, and then win just as easily by killing the scum in the group of six as we would have if we'd done it earlier?
I don't really care about how long the game goes, I'd just rather win.

[Vanderscamp]

if we kill the 6p scum d1 we win the game on the spot

if we kill the 3p scum d1 we do not win the game on the spot, we still have to go find the 6p scum.

Yes, but as I've said already, the chances of those two things happening are not equally likely, and maybe more importantly, if we kill the 6p scum immediately we win on the spot regardless of how many lynches we've spent up until that point in the 3p group.

[Vanderscamp]

we should actually have the elim be decided by the 3p hood onto the 6p hood

because the scum in the 3p hood can't bus.

because if they bus the game is over

I'm down to make this step 1, but we need to discuss afterwards.

Agreed that we're 100% killing in the big group today though.

I still don't understand this:
Can't we just lynch into the group of 3, potentially have NKs that make our decision into the group of 6, and then win just as easily by killing the scum in the group of six as we would have if we'd done it earlier?
I don't really care about how long the game goes, I'd just rather win.

Correctly limming in the pool of 3 D1 makes this a functionally a mountainous setup. It's not terrible, but it's also not great. OTOH, correctly limming in the big pool wins us the game. Also, limming in the big pool means scum is likely to shoot in the big pool. In the case that skitts is town, letting her have multiple phases to solve the game is a dangerous proposition. Similarly with me. Leaving both of us alive means that there is a decent chance that one of the two of us destroys the shit out of the gamestate, which is a risky proposition all around. If scum is going to shoot in the little group regardless, we want to force them to make that decision later. If we conftown people in the little group, doing so late game is inarguably the stronger move.

tl;dr -> Catching scum on D1 is less important than setting up a winnable XLO.

If your argument is "the two of us are better than the other players" I'm probably going to go with that if the rest of the thread confirms that the two of you are really that good, because I don't know well enough how true that is.

But I think it's very conceivable that we never get confirmed towns or scum NKs in the smaller group before losing the game, why do you expect this to happen if we initially kill into the large pool?

[Vanderscamp]

no face is hard town btw

Why?

said they were a communist in the neighborhood chat

Ok

I think he is obviously the least towny in an objective sense and if he doesn't improve I'd like to kill him.

[Vanderscamp]

In the case that skitts is town, letting her have multiple phases to solve the game is a dangerous proposition. Similarly with me.

This makes sense, you sold me

VOTE: vander my first FoS, he's playing like he did in underage gun control (idk his town meta though)

I think having this read is not scum indicative from infinity because I can understand why he thinks this.

You can have a look at my previous town games though, they're pretty similar, particularly early game.

[Vanderscamp]

It's more the reservedness I'm picking up from him alongside him screwing around.
But I don't feel very strongly about this being scum specifically.

[Vanderscamp]

Yeah, that's what I mean, if no face really is a gimmick alt then they could be anything.
I'd still policy lynch them given no improvement or better scum reads but wouldn't feel good about it.

[Vanderscamp]

If you're town you shouldn't be playing this game at all like underage gun control, we may have a 50+ page d1. There's not going to be a "no improvement or better scumreads"

I also doubt that.

In what way am I playing this game that is similar to that game that I should not be playing like?

[Vanderscamp]

You're talking in a way that's like "if the day ended now", when I don't think that's a useful mindset to have, a lot is going to happen on this day 1. You don't have to believe me

I believe a lot will happen, don't worry!
I'm mostly using it to explain my thoughts on the current gamestate.

[Vanderscamp]

You're talking in a way that's like "if the day ended now", when I don't think that's a useful mindset to have, a lot is going to happen on this day 1. You don't have to believe me

But I think it's very conceivable that we never get confirmed towns or scum NKs in the smaller group before losing the game, why do you expect this to happen if we initially kill into the large pool?

If we correctly elim in the small pool (1/3), we're looking at scum needing to miseliminate 3 times in the big pool to win. This is 5/6*4/5*2/3 for optimal play, or about 44%. Yes, scum wins a little bit less than half the time if we correctly eliminate in the small pool. 6:1 with a single IC is not a very strong position for town.

In any other case, scum should be shooting into the bigger pool tonight. As Pooky pointed out, the interactions are more telling when the big pool scum player is on the line than when the little pool scum player is on the line. Therefore, hitting the big pool scum player inevitably gives more information than hitting the small pool scum player.

I agree hitting the big pool scum player is much better, I don't think anyone is arguing that.
But it's also half as likely.

I personally think ensuring that we can kill one scum before we lose the game is more valuable than the other strategies, which is not the case if we aim into the big pool first.
But I mostly agree with whoever said earlier that we should probably just aim to kill the most suspicious player.

I REALLY don't like the idea of leaving the big pool lynch up to the small pool, I'll fight hard against that one.

[Vanderscamp]

I think pooky is likely town regardless of skitter's alignment.
If skitter is town then I buy the stuff about neighborizing her, and if not, they're probably not together from skitter agreeing that it's a thing.

[Vanderscamp]

I think skitter is so far the towniest of the small pool

[Vanderscamp]

but we're guaranteed at least a scum by flipping thru 3p, no?

going for 6p today means we *might* get a win today but otherwise we end up in a similar space tomorrow with a large hood and an unresolved 3p that if i'm counting right we won't be able to flip through, which by definition means mitigating the chances of netting one scum, if i'm counting this right

it kinda reminds me of coalition of whether we ought to be trying to win (getting the coalition day1) or whether we ought to try to mitigate the losses if we don't get the coalition day1 by getting a coalition that will at least be easier to sort through up failing, as those things aren't always necessarily the same thing.

but i think it's usually better here to net the guaranteed scum and then try to find the other scum in the 6p because while it's not as ~flashy~ it'll help our overall chances of winning

if we go thru the small pool we have

(1/3) We hit scum right away - we are playing 1-6 Mountainous with 1 IC rest of the way. (50% WR)

(1/3) We hit scum on 2nd try - we are playing 1-4 Mountainous rest of the way. (40% WR)

(1/3) We hit scum on last try - we are playing 1-2 Endgame (33% WR)

Overall WR -> 41.1%

if we go thru the big pool we have:

(1/6) we hit scum on first try -> game over

(1/4) we hit scum on second try -> we have 2 shots to elim 1 scum in three people (2/3) victory

We miss both times -> we have a (1/2) shot of hitting scum, then a (1/3) endgame if we hit correctly.

Overall WR -> 50%

Your math is wrong.
The top half is correct, but the chance of hitting scum on the second try is not 1/4, it's 5/6 x 1/4.

I don't know how you got 50% but the equation is
(1/6)x1
+ (5/6 x 1/4) x 2/3
+ (5/6 x 3/4) x 1/2 x 1/3

which is 40.97%.

Going for the big pool first is marginally worse but probably doesn't outweigh wanting to lynch whatever our strongest read is.

[Vanderscamp]

I have a permanent grudge against anyone I have correctly scumread in the past and failed to eliminate

Skitt get in here and fite me

VOTE: skitt

Ydrasse you're free for now

ok let's fite
- from your pov why is it me and not bingle
- do you understand how from *my* pov this looks to me like you entered the game trying to force a 1v1 with me
- aside note: if infinity is scum and taking this tactic i expect her partner to be less confident / the partner doesn't think they would be able to do the 3p (no offense to whoever that may be if that is indeed the case)

-If jingle is as strong as scum as you, it could be either one
-Sure, but I expect you to be TRing me once you read up (I think)

Why do you not think it can be skitt as scum who decides to scum read you?

[Vanderscamp]

they're probably not together from skitter agreeing that it's a thing.

Eh. skitter trying to deny that it's a thing doesn't work. Too many people in the lobby know better.

Ok, good to know

[Vanderscamp]

Pooky's math is off. EV for little pool elims until scum with optimal nightkills is ~40%, EV for big pool elims until scum with optimal nightkills is ~44%. More importantly, actually hitting scum in the big pool leaves us in a much better place to find the remaining scum from a subjective standpoint, and the only way we lose by looking there first is if the scum is literally the towniest player in that pool.

I think this is wrong too, walk me through how you got these numbers if you care to argue it

[Vanderscamp]

but we're guaranteed at least a scum by flipping thru 3p, no?

going for 6p today means we *might* get a win today but otherwise we end up in a similar space tomorrow with a large hood and an unresolved 3p that if i'm counting right we won't be able to flip through, which by definition means mitigating the chances of netting one scum, if i'm counting this right

it kinda reminds me of coalition of whether we ought to be trying to win (getting the coalition day1) or whether we ought to try to mitigate the losses if we don't get the coalition day1 by getting a coalition that will at least be easier to sort through up failing, as those things aren't always necessarily the same thing.

but i think it's usually better here to net the guaranteed scum and then try to find the other scum in the 6p because while it's not as ~flashy~ it'll help our overall chances of winning

if we go thru the small pool we have

(1/3) We hit scum right away - we are playing 1-6 Mountainous with 1 IC rest of the way. (50% WR)

(1/3) We hit scum on 2nd try - we are playing 1-4 Mountainous rest of the way. (40% WR)

(1/3) We hit scum on last try - we are playing 1-2 Endgame (33% WR)

Overall WR -> 41.1%

if we go thru the big pool we have:

(1/6) we hit scum on first try -> game over

(1/4) we hit scum on second try -> we have 2 shots to elim 1 scum in three people (2/3) victory

We miss both times -> we have a (1/2) shot of hitting scum, then a (1/3) endgame if we hit correctly.

Overall WR -> 50%

Your math is wrong.
The top half is correct, but the chance of hitting scum on the second try is not 1/4, it's 5/6 x 1/4.

I don't know how you got 50% but the equation is
(1/6)x1
+ (5/6 x 1/4) x 2/3
+ (5/6 x 3/4) x 1/2 x 1/3

which is 40.97%.

Going for the big pool first is marginally worse but probably doesn't outweigh wanting to lynch whatever our strongest read is.

I will say that I think in practice the math for this is kind of misleading (even though if I'm not wrong, which I'm pretty sure I'm not, it comes to the exact same conclusion that I've been advocating) because it assumes we're lynching randomly.
I'm pretty sure a fairly big part of the reason why lynching into the small pool first comes out ahead is because from a random kills POV, the fact that we force scum to NK into the big pool before solving there reduces our chance of miskilling in the big pool when we eventually do get there, but in practice I don't think this is as helpful since when scum just NK the towniest player in the big pool, we were not going to kill them anyway, so math assuming random lynching assumes this is a bigger deal than it will turn out to be in practice.

On the flip side of this, the math argument also doesn't care if a scum gets eliminated at any point in the game or the reads we would get from that.

[Vanderscamp]

Why do you not think it can be skitt as scum who decides to scum read you?

I'd think that it would be too hard for scum!her to justify, but maybe she can anyway. I'm not sure. I feel like I'm already kind of out of my scumrange though, and will get more so as the game goes on.

Why are you out of your scunrange?

[Vanderscamp]

I think this is wrong too, walk me through how you got these numbers if you care to argue it

Exhaustive analysis of the cases within the parameters. All of the possible townwins for littlepoolfirst, for instance, are

TTSS (.083)
TSS (.066)
TSTS (.07)
SS (.0556)
STS (.0556)
STTS (.074)

Which sums to 40.4%.

I assume you will take my word at this point, but analyzing setups is kinda my jam.

Most of those numbers look right but for TTSS I get 2/3 x 1/2 x 1 x 1/3 = 0.111
And for TSTS I get 2/3 x 1/2 x 4/5 x 1/3 = 0.0888

[Vanderscamp]

I think this is wrong too, walk me through how you got these numbers if you care to argue it

Exhaustive analysis of the cases within the parameters. All of the possible townwins for littlepoolfirst, for instance, are

TTSS (.083)
TSS (.066)
TSTS (.07)
SS (.0556)
STS (.0556)
STTS (.074)

Which sums to 40.4%.

I assume you will take my word at this point, but analyzing setups is kinda my jam.

Most of those numbers look right but for TTSS I get 2/3 x 1/2 x 1 x 1/3 = 0.111
And for TSTS I get 2/3 x 1/2 x 4/5 x 1/3 = 0.0888

This adds up to 45.1%, which is not what I got either, but I see where I went wrong (and I was wrong), it was assuming that Pooky's odds of winning for the various mountainous set ups were correct, but they are actually also wrong.

The chances of winning with small pool first are 45.1%, and big pool first is whatever I said earlier, 40.7% or something.
So that's actually a pretty decent difference.

[Vanderscamp]

Most of those numbers look right but for TTSS I get 2/3 x 1/2 x 1 x 1/3 = 0.111
And for TSTS I get 2/3 x 1/2 x 4/5 x 1/3 = 0.0888

I could look back, I suppose and see if I typo'd a calculation somewhere, but when we agree with the conclusion that the math says the two options are very similar and the subjective criteria is more important I'm not sure it's worth the distraction.

I have small pool first as over 4% better.
Not sure it does matter a huge amount but I think it's definitely wrong to say that big pool first is obviously correct.

[Vanderscamp]

Just checked scum's chances of winning going for the big pool first with all the possible combinations and it checks out, it's definitely 45% to win as town with small pool first and 41% to win with big pool first, the people who are saying big pool first is mathematically better are definitely wrong.
I don't agree that small pool scum can just afford to get eliminated, either, there's a pretty decent chance that we get to a point in the game after aiming for the big pool and missing twice that the small pool turns into the bigger pool.

[Vanderscamp]

I'm going to sleep

night infinity! we shall continue our bickering on the morrow

Pooky.

ok interesting take, why?

FMPOV: 50% of the time you are scum. You know that scum in the small pool cannot be the endgame scum, therefore your partner is likely high tier. I would wager a very significant portion of the time, Infinity's team would also be aware of this restriction. That implies that the scum in the other pool is someone who can be trusted to pull a game by themselves. Of the names I recognize, Pooky and Mena best fit that bill with an outside chance of HecticAlt. Mena/You doesn't look S/S. Pooky and you have a disproportionate likelihood of being grouped if unaligned.

All of that is circumstantial evidence that points to Pooky having a higher likelihood of being scum than anyone else. Also, if I flip PookyTown, you become significantly more likely to be town imo, which is helpful for solving the you/infinity 1v1 later.

Haven't read all of this but your second sentence is wrong.
There's nothing to stop scum in the small pool from being endgame scum if we're lynching into the big pool first.

[Vanderscamp]

-If jingle is as strong as scum as you, it could be either one
-Sure, but I expect you to be TRing me once you read up (I think)

- you aren't approaching this like it could be either one tho
- i don't think you're being townie for you
- maybe i missed it but did you answer this: which pool do you think it's optimal to flip in today?

-What do you mean "approaching this"? I voted you which is like the only indication that I suspected you more? And I didn't know jingle was a particularly good scum player at first so idk what you're on about
-You're very wrong and I don't believe you believe that
-Jingle convinced me that it's better for whichever of you is town to be alive for longer, so 6p I guess

I'd think that it would be too hard for scum!her to justify

Uh

Why

She's correctly read me 3 games in a row and I feel like she has a pretty good sense for how I play

Right but

If she’s in the 3p pool then she’s prob not expecting to survive long term

I guess? I'm not sure which pool scum expected us to lim in

I guess she dies before endgame anyway but it's nice to survive one lim in the 3p group, but it's not that sus for her until I flip town, so my thought process didn't make sense. Ok. This makes me more confident skitt is scum

This post is quite scummy

[Vanderscamp]

also is your argument for why conftowning people in the little group bad largely solely based on who's in it or ...
i'm kinda rambling as i think through this but let's say infinity is scum, we flip her today, say i die tonight. are you basically arguing that in that scenario we'd want town-you to be conftowned later so we shouldn't try to flip scum-infinity today ? or am i missing something. or if you die we'd want me to be conftowned later? either way we'd have a conftown through the end of day2, no? that's p good?

If we conftown players in the small pool D1, they're both dead before XLO. It's the same principle as keeping masons hidden as long as possible. Having conftown early is actually pretty useless comparitively.

Also, from a gamestate perspective, we're guaranteed to have at worst a 50/50 at 5p XLO if we go big pool first. I'm not going to say that the possibility of scum fearkilling one of us out of the little pool isn't a factor (it is) but even without it the flip of the bigpool scum IS more informative than the flip of the little pool scum.

From a gamestate perspective we're guaranteed a confirmed mafia at 5p XLO by doing small pool first so this is not a good reason.

[Vanderscamp]

Skitt also knows that I struggle under pressure as town generally, so the plan is to elim me d1 and then NK jingle

Even scummier, you are just posting nonsense

[Vanderscamp]

Why do you not think it can be skitt as scum who decides to scum read you?

I'd think that it would be too hard for scum!her to justify, but maybe she can anyway. I'm not sure. I feel like I'm already kind of out of my scumrange though, and will get more so as the game goes on.

Why are you out of your scunrange?

I'm way more decisive than scum!me would me, maybe pooky or mena can see it. I'm not self-aware enough to give a detailed answer to this but I believe it's true

I'd love to hear anyone corroborate this!

[Vanderscamp]

I guess it is slightly +scum for me bc yeh I prob wouldn’t wanna be in the same hood as you (I’d isolate strong players and bus the fuck out of my buddy D1 prob) if I were scum

I think it’s just not that meaningful bc I think a decent number of people here would, if they were scum, not want us in the same hood if we’re both town

i mean fair but that's what i thought when i saw that post
like i didn't say it makes you scum or that this configuration is impossible from town-you

i did have paranoid thoughts there tho

I mean honestly skitt if I role scum this game I probably just cry and then provided my partner is halfway competent I put myself in the 3p and try to enjoy being able to open wolf all game

I’m only scum here ever with infinity, and even then only if infinty’s

really

doubtful of her ability to bring home a win

This feels like an honest take from someone who is not scum

[Vanderscamp]

Norwegian, reads on the big pool?

[Vanderscamp]

Ok Hectic town.

Yeah I think that was a very reasonable analysis from no face.

[Vanderscamp]

Idk who I would want to kill in the group of 6.
Maybe yd?

[Vanderscamp]

Idk who I would want to kill in the group of 6.
Maybe yd?

i town try again

Great

[Vanderscamp]

Idk who I would want to kill in the group of 6.
Maybe yd?

i town try again

what game are you talking about ydrasse, i had no idea you’d ever played against vanders!scum

Neither!

[Vanderscamp]

I think vanders is playing similarly to UGC

I am!

Have you read any of my town games?

[Vanderscamp]

Why would it be weird for yd to be in the pool of 6?
Can someone explain that?

[Vanderscamp]

My defence of myself here is pretty easy, I think the two people scumreading me are the exact two people who just played with scumMe in UCG, and have not played or read any other games with me to realize that me sounding similar to that game is playstyle indicative and not alignment indicative.

[Vanderscamp]

Who do you actually think is scum in the small pool yd?

[Vanderscamp]

The main face for Infinity being mafia is because it's weird for mafia skitter or Bingle to put her in the group of 3 when she feels more like a group of 6 player, since she is more likely to be wrongfully eliminated by the other players when she is town, more often that players like Menalque or Pooky. Mafia needs to put all the players that can sometimes look like mafia as town in the group of 6 because that is the one that matters. This is why I think skitter is more likely to be town, because she could blend in well in the group of 6 so she only puts herself in group of 3 if she doesn't really want to play as mafia for too long.

I can see mafia Infinity putting herself with 2 strong players and coming out swinging. The words are possibly written.

Bingle seems to be playing quite safely, like he's in a safe :O

I have the opposite opinion, I think it would be weird for mafia infinity to put two strong players into the group of three.
Also, was it public knowledge that bingle was a strong player at the start of the game?
They're jingle's alt apparently, but was that already known?

And I don't agree that you don't want any easier mislynches in the small pool.
Why not just put a couple of hard to lynch players in the big pool and then NK them?
The pool of three is harder to survive in but it's not like getting mislynches there doesn't matter, which is my biggest issue with infinity being scum here if all this meta stuff is correct.

[Vanderscamp]

This feels like one night stand, I'm very far out of my scumrange but people feel like SRing me anyway

So now that you are "very far" out of your scumrange and not just probably, even if you are very not self aware, can you explain exactly why?

[Vanderscamp]

This feels like one night stand, I'm very far out of my scumrange but people feel like SRing me anyway

I think bingle is the scum of the small group

[Vanderscamp]

Sorry, not aiming to quote this stuff.

What's the method for preventing multiquotes?

[Vanderscamp]

Test

[Vanderscamp]

I'm wondering why scum!jingle put skitter in the 3p hood and then argued for a plan specifically involving wanting to keep skitt alive? He obviously was aware that skitt can be a threat, so it seems odd

In the future if someone doesn't like a PoE vote that I make, questioning my TRs is much more useful than questioning the vote itself

PEdit: ok but you're hectic

I think this is also a fairly unnecessary point to bring up if infinity is mafia

[Vanderscamp]

I’m not meta diving, i just remember.

Hm. What do you think about the fact that your characterization is not only 100% accurate, but actually the reason I lost in a game that I linked in the neighborhood that just so happens to have scum in it 100% of the time?

Was nor in that game?

[Vanderscamp]

I think infinity and skit are fairly towny in the small pool and bingle is null.

I don't feel very strongly about the big pool but I think mena and no face are likely town, and I think pooky is towny because I would expect scum in that pool to try harder to appear town, which I don't think pooky has done, he's been sort of blatantly not try hard.

I think bingle is likely to not be scum with Norwegian after the implication bingle made about Norwegian having access to the scum chat.
I think yd has not really done anything towny yet and is probably my kill.

[Vanderscamp]

No, Pooky was though. The tinfoil was that Nor's scumpartner could have shared the links with him. It's a pretty out there theory, and I liked Nor's casual dismissal of it though.

viewtopic.php?f=84&t=85019
viewtopic.php?f=84&t=84842

for reference.

The game nor quoted that he said was his reference for the read he gave, do you think that that game makes sense for him to have had that read?

[Vanderscamp]

im obvtown btw

Great, why?

[Vanderscamp]

im obvtown btw

Great, why?

read me iso

No, I want your take.

My take is that you're not at all obvtown.

[Vanderscamp]

You're also not letting new information affect your decision but have instead decided to go with the "bingle is trying to javelin-throw lose the game immediately on d1" interpretation of events...

No I'm not saying that at all D:

No Face isn't saying the Bingle and Pooky are a team read because of interactions

It just so happens that Pooky is my lowest read in the group of 6 and Bingle is my lowest read in the group of 3

yes I know this is what you will have to go with to get the people who susp bingle to vote me because otherwise they wouldn't be able to fit bingle scum into a pooky scum world

What?

[Vanderscamp]

im obvtown btw

Great, why?

read me iso

No, I want your take.

My take is that you're not at all obvtown.

you lack familiarity w me, but i'm fairly unable to play like this and keep pace as scum, takes longer, my logic is a lot worse and seen through, more frustration/ate probably, etc, no face pointed out that i quite simply do not Give a fuck, or didnt, but then i started having fun doing things so now i am, and now im town for everyone to see

i soulread no face as town, btw

he's using the same sort of thought processes/logic that he always does as town

Maybe I'm more hesitant to trust this than I should be. Have you correctly scumread him in the past?

PEdit: pooky I know you're friendly as both alignments but "friendly" isn't usually the only word I'd use to describe your play in a towngame. I know you have a big townrange though

uhhhhhh no, i haven't actually played w scum!him that i recall, but... i have a lot of familiarity with his town and there's a certain logic behind the way he thinks about things in games that i'm like... finding it very, very easy to trace back as "he would think this as town, i can see the ways hes connecting a to b"

even without having a scum comparison, i think i have enough faith in how i read his games that i don't need the comparison to be sure, idk, i might be getting blown out of the water but i don't think that i am because it just feels like his towngame, and i think that it's even more commendable with the slightly strange way that no face types, because despite that barrier i still find it like... easy, it's just easy to see

so ye

Ok, I buy it!

[Vanderscamp]

the goal of any scum player is to drive the agenda and replicate their town play into their scum game so that a player reading them can follow along to the conclusions they reach -> that's how a scum gets mis-elims in the first place.

You can tell this is what he is doing right now with his push on me. It's not alignment sorting - it's push to kill.

This is a pretty strange take

[Vanderscamp]

the essence of his push on me isn't "I scumread Pooky"

it's I town-read everyone else for ___, ____, ____, and _____

It leaves one person out of the equation, notably that's himself.

It's an effective strategy for pushing mis-elims on d1 because you create a coalition/support by handing out townreads to get people to help you, and you create a mutual target for everyone to go after.

It's also incredibly difficult for me to defend against because he's not actually scum-reading me for anything, so there's nothing for me to refute

then tomm after I'm flipped town he will "go back" to his townreads and "think" about where he went wrong.

But why can't he be town doing this and being wrong?

[Vanderscamp]

VANDERS NO DON'T USE AN EXCLAMATION MARK OR I'M GONNA SCUMREAD YOU NO.

Ok

[Vanderscamp]

can you explain why pooky's town to me?

You didn't like my reasoning that they would likely be in the 3p hood. Anyway I'd probably be voting pooky if I knew I wasn't hammering, cbf to check the votes

Vander's tone feels exactly the same as UGC to me lol but I'm leaning town there anyway

This is my biggest concern of yd (although I buy their logic about why they are obviously town), I don't think I sound very different from UGC and I think your and mena's reads on me kind of confirm that.

[Vanderscamp]

VOTE: Pooky because what they just said about no face's scum read on them really made no sense at all.
This should be E-1

[Vanderscamp]

Pooky if you want the reasons why I think you could be scum and have been on the back of No Face's mind:

In the last coalition game you played as town, you were really excited about the prospect of a day 1 win and actively pushed hard for it. But while doing this you were also outting lots of reads are trying to win the game by finding town and scum

In this game, you acted similarly about the big day 1 win but did nothing to help it like giving reads or finding town/scum. It's like you're going through the motions but not doing the fieldwork I saw you were eager to do in that coalition game

:/

Was this the one I was in?

I don't remember pooky being in that game at all, was it a different account?

[Vanderscamp]

He was in a hydra with Koba

Mystic Bears, it was a fun account

Idk how much of that was koba but that is a pretty bad sign for pooky's alignment this game

[Vanderscamp]

Like literally explain to me why pooky is scum

Substantiate any actual reason for it based on his play so far

I think his case against no face is extremely weird, it just feels like a retaliation.
I don't understand why pooky thinks no face has to be scum for POEing pooky as scum and not town with an incorrect PoE. There was a comment in there that was something like "notice how no face is leaving himself out of his own suspect list" or something like that that I thought was very scummy.

I think pooky has done very little to try to solve the game, I think the only thing pooky has going for him is that he is imo blatantly not trying to look good, but this is also different from mystic bears in the coalition game where that slot was pretty obviously town.

[Vanderscamp]

You're also not letting new information affect your decision but have instead decided to go with the "bingle is trying to javelin-throw lose the game immediately on d1" interpretation of events...

No I'm not saying that at all D:

No Face isn't saying the Bingle and Pooky are a team read because of interactions

It just so happens that Pooky is my lowest read in the group of 6 and Bingle is my lowest read in the group of 3

yes I know this is what you will have to go with to get the people who susp bingle to vote me because otherwise they wouldn't be able to fit bingle scum into a pooky scum world

This comment made no sense

[Vanderscamp]

the essence of his push on me isn't "I scumread Pooky"

it's I town-read everyone else for ___, ____, ____, and _____

It leaves one person out of the equation, notably that's himself.

It's an effective strategy for pushing mis-elims on d1 because you create a coalition/support by handing out townreads to get people to help you, and you create a mutual target for everyone to go after.

It's also incredibly difficult for me to defend against because he's not actually scum-reading me for anything, so there's nothing for me to refute

then tomm after I'm flipped town he will "go back" to his townreads and "think" about where he went wrong.

And this is all a fair analysis but as a reason for scum reading no face I think it makes no sense

[Vanderscamp]

In the worst timeline mena is scum defending pooky knowing he's about to go down

surely that isn't our world ....

It's mechanically not our world

[Vanderscamp]

Like literally explain to me why pooky is scum

Substantiate any actual reason for it based on his play so far

I think his case against no face is extremely weird, it just feels like a retaliation.
I don't understand why pooky thinks no face has to be scum for POEing pooky as scum and not town with an incorrect PoE. There was a comment in there that was something like "notice how no face is leaving himself out of his own suspect list" or something like that that I thought was very scummy.

I think pooky has done very little to try to solve the game, I think the only thing pooky has going for him is that he is imo blatantly not trying to look good, but this is also different from mystic bears in the coalition game where that slot was pretty obviously town.

Who cares? Like if pooky wanted to fabricate a case on no face to really push him as a mislim he’d prob just come up with actual solid reasons?

And pooky hardly ever does much to try and solve the game it’s why he’s an annoyingly difficult slot to solve, but that doesn’t actually make him scum, that’s just a feature of how he plays

If pooky is a player who doesn't solve games and frequently gives poor reasons for accusations, then sure, what you're saying is fair.

But I'm not reading someone giving bad reasons on a retaliated scum read as a reason to think they're town.

[Vanderscamp]

Mena: why has he been actively townier than other slots?

[Vanderscamp]

I have a reason for voting pooky though.
It's not enough to keep saying that I sound like that game if you have no town games of mine that you're comparing it to.

[Vanderscamp]

pooky, i basically feel the same way about you, am i scum for voting you? i don't feel like you've done anything this game that's towny, you gave us a ~plan~ but it doesn't feel like you've much done anything to facilitate that plan giving us good results

the plan says to let the 3 pool make the elim decision because of the constraints on the scum side and because the information generated would lead to a superior outcome even if we miss on d1.

But this is still a terrible plan, we are giving the decision to a pool that contains a high % of scum that is disincentivized to bus.
It is about the best way to guarantee we miskill today, and the "information" we get from it will likely be that the people in the small pool were wrong about the town we just killed.

[Vanderscamp]

Like literally explain to me why pooky is scum

Substantiate any actual reason for it based on his play so far

I think his case against no face is extremely weird, it just feels like a retaliation.
I don't understand why pooky thinks no face has to be scum for POEing pooky as scum and not town with an incorrect PoE. There was a comment in there that was something like "notice how no face is leaving himself out of his own suspect list" or something like that that I thought was very scummy.

I think pooky has done very little to try to solve the game, I think the only thing pooky has going for him is that he is imo blatantly not trying to look good, but this is also different from mystic bears in the coalition game where that slot was pretty obviously town.

Who cares? Like if pooky wanted to fabricate a case on no face to really push him as a mislim he’d prob just come up with actual solid reasons?

And pooky hardly ever does much to try and solve the game it’s why he’s an annoyingly difficult slot to solve, but that doesn’t actually make him scum, that’s just a feature of how he plays

If pooky is a player who doesn't solve games and frequently gives poor reasons for accusations, then sure, what you're saying is fair.

But I'm not reading someone giving bad reasons on a retaliated scum read as a reason to think they're town.

Yes, but he’s also decently accurate even if the stated reasoning isn’t there or is meh

And it’s not that I’m saying I have a locktown read on pooky

I’m saying this wagon is trash because there’s no reason to suspect pooky over multiple others in the 6p pool, and therefore the incredible ease with which he arrived at e-1 WITHOUT good reasons is a good reason to think now that he’s town

If he's scum he has only one partner, and it's contained in a pool of three people, of which iirc two are not voting him.
So why does that matter?

[Vanderscamp]

pooky, i basically feel the same way about you, am i scum for voting you? i don't feel like you've done anything this game that's towny, you gave us a ~plan~ but it doesn't feel like you've much done anything to facilitate that plan giving us good results

the plan says to let the 3 pool make the elim decision because of the constraints on the scum side and because the information generated would lead to a superior outcome even if we miss on d1.

But this is still a terrible plan, we are giving the decision to a pool that contains a high % of scum that is disincentivized to bus.
It is about the best way to guarantee we miskill today, and the "information" we get from it will likely be that the people in the small pool were wrong about the town we just killed.

we don't actually have to follow the plan if we don't like the result at the end.

it's more to take advantage of the fact that the scum in the 3pool can't bus due to game constraints to generate information.

But knowing that scum aren't bussing isn't useful when the end result is killing a town.

[Vanderscamp]

the scum in the 3pool can't bus

This isn’t true and is a bad assumption and lends itself to gambiting

i mean sure they could go very gambitty but I wanna push the scum to take risks in this kind of setup

Let’s just lim vanders and win automatically

I think we're approaching the point where your approach towards me is going from a towny perspective that makes sense, to you being way too confident on this while ignoring all of my many posts I make to you to implore you to try to find out if the things you don't like about me that are similar to last game are indicative of me being scum or just me as a player.
I don't even mind that you didn't like my pooky vote either.

[Vanderscamp]

Vanders is scummy for being like incredibly milquetoast and then exceedingly opportunistic and seems to be one of the slots that 2/3 of the bus-disincentivised pool is avoiding

Your last point is incredibly poor, anyone who is not being actively scumread by 2/3 people in that pool fulfills those conditions.

[Vanderscamp]

i know you're going to think this is like, an insane person's rambling but yes, i don't expect anyone else to understand what i'm seeing when i go like, there's a way he thinks about games that i can identify from over time that very much clicks for me as town/not town, and i'm going to feel dumb the day that comes that he's scum against me sure maybe, but like. i feel even then i'll probably have some pings that make me go ? from him and i literally have no pings right now, zero, he's town and he's town beyond the gimmick

The way he thinks about how to push an elimination as town is the same as how he thinks about how to push an elimination as scum. They are two sides of the same coin.

If it was different he would be caught as scum... The thought process doesn't change.

But if you think the way no face thinks about how to push an elimination as town and scum is the same, then why the fuck are you scumreading him for the way he is pushing to kill you?

[Vanderscamp]

I think yd's discussion about no face being town is very towny from yd

[Vanderscamp]

I haven't even pushed you until I gave you multiple chances to re-evaluate your push on me in the light of new information and seeing that you chose to ignore it each and every time I have no alternative but to see this as a scum motivated push to kill and not genuine in trying to sort me.

Can you talk about what exactly the new information is that should have made him reevaluate?

[Vanderscamp]

pretty sure van is just a wrong townie who is really sure he is right

I'm not sure at all that I'm right, I think there is a relatively high chance you are scum compared to baseline, but there's still a big margin for error.
Right now you are easily my top vote although I'd also be pretty happy voting bingle.

[Vanderscamp]

I haven't even pushed you until I gave you multiple chances to re-evaluate your push on me in the light of new information and seeing that you chose to ignore it each and every time I have no alternative but to see this as a scum motivated push to kill and not genuine in trying to sort me.

Can you talk about what exactly the new information is that should have made him reevaluate?

Bingle pushing me hard.

because he has bingle as his most likely scum in the 3 pool,

he knows bingle can't push me if I'm partnered with Bingle because if the scum in the 6pool flips then the game is over.

He decided to hand-wave the information to continue with his push instead of re-evaluating.

Alright, but even assuming that scum in the three pool are literally never going to bus in any way (something I don't believe), why can't he just be assuming that there is some chance he's wrong about bingle?

[Vanderscamp]

Like I had an early suspicion

Pooky turned it into me driving and pushing a miselim and attaching an agenda to it

and now we're here :@

I agree very much with this

It is an extremely strange characterisation of what you were doing

[Vanderscamp]

[quote="In post 850, PookyTheMagicalBear"]are you serious

did you not just play that mini with us where I hard defended the shit out of norwee-town?[/q]
I think pooky is even more mafia now

I think it is EXTREMELY scummy to say "well who could this player possibly have pushed on other than me?" and then try to use the above as a reason why no face wouldn't be inclined to push Norwegian, to nitpick at an answer to a question that is very obviously wrong.
Like, it should be extremely clear to everyone that pooky is not literally the only player in the pool of six that no face could have pushed on.

[Vanderscamp]

Sorry for that quote fail.

[Vanderscamp]

This has got to be one of the worst defences I have seen.
Everything pooky is saying is so confident but the reasons are really not there, none of what he is saying makes sense or justifies the attitude he's portraying.

[Vanderscamp]

Bingle pushing me hard.

because he has bingle as his most likely scum in the 3 pool,

he knows bingle can't push me if I'm partnered with Bingle because if the scum in the 6pool flips then the game is over.

He decided to hand-wave the information to continue with his push instead of re-evaluating.

To me SRing someone when rand is a 33% chance of them being scum means there's a 40% chance of being scum so I don't really get this argument

Infinity put yourself in a town player's shoes.

You're pushing Player X to be elimmed from 6Pool

The person you most believe to be scum from 3Pool decides to also hardpush Player X.

At that point do you double down on your push or do you re-evaluate where you are going?

Because remember the 3Pool scum can't actually bus the 6Pool scum, 6Pool scum flips, the game is over.

His reaction to Bingle pushing me was to just hand-wave it and continue on like nothing was happening.

That's not a town!no face reaction because town him would be re-evaling as the push goes on and he sees how much traction he gets.

Remember he called me/bingle a team even after bingle pushed me.


Furthermore think about what the scum in the 6pool does.

Let's say you flip red alignment, you put yourself in 6 pool, you're fairly sure the battle is going to be here, someone is going to get elimmed and you need it not to be you.

You need a pathway to push a mis-elim, you can't really afford to twiddle your fingers and like hope to chill right?

He began the game with a push not on an SR but on 4 TRs in the first couple of pages because there's nothing to refute when you push on POE and its got side effect of helping you pocket some townies along the way who can help you push.

Like if he wanted to actually sort my alignment, he'd have something he'd SR me that he'd want to talk about right?

like hey Pooky you posted ____ which is scummy, or Pooky I don't see why town you posts that.

Nah instead it's just I TR these 4 so you are scum by extension.

That's not something I can have a conversation with him about.

Even if he were to make some shit up about Pooky is scum because of ____, then at least we'd have something to talk about and that might help him sort my alignment.

Instead he's not

interested

in sorting my alignment - the goal of the push is to get a mis-elim.

and I'm sure after I flip town tommorrow he will have "re-evaluated his townreads" and decided ____ is actually the villain.

This is not the first time you've said this last line

You're saying if you die and no face realizes he was wrong he will reevaluate, this is super obvious but you're saying it like it's a bad thing

[Vanderscamp]

are you serious

did you not just play that mini with us where I hard defended the shit out of norwee-town?[/q]
I think pooky is even more mafia now

I think it is EXTREMELY scummy to say "well who could this player possibly have pushed on other than me?" and then try to use the above as a reason why no face wouldn't be inclined to push Norwegian, to nitpick at an answer to a question that is very obviously wrong.
Like, it should be extremely clear to everyone that pooky is not literally the only player in the pool of six that no face could have pushed on.

I'm saying he's literally seen me read norwee town correctly and defend norwee from a scum push so I'm pretty sure he would know he couldn't get away with pushing norwee-town in this game state...

Sure, but even if this is true, my problem with you saying it is that you are just nitpicking at an irrelevant question.

[Vanderscamp]

This is not the first time you've said this last line

You're saying if you die and no face realizes he was wrong he will reevaluate, this is super obvious but you're saying it like it's a bad thing

when I put "re-evaluate" in quotes, I'm being sarcastic.

What mean is scum no face will look for his next target and it's probably going to be you.

It very well could be!

But it's also not really relevant because no face of either alignment is wrong if you're town, and is going to evaluate either way.
You're explaining what no face is doing, and the progression, but I'm missing the parts that make you believe that he is actually scum from it.
I don't really buy the thing about no face not being allowed to go after you since bingle voted you as what I can gather is the only reason no face is scum for this.

[Vanderscamp]

I wouldn't think this is scum-indicative necessarily but it might be when I was getting on everyone's case about not TRing me. It's easier to just call me town there (esp when pooky has recent experience with scum!me that was very different from here)

PEdit: consistent reads across like 2 RL days isn't really scummy, PoE reads are also less likely to change than others

2 RL days when there's nothing going on in the game sure. but when your target is at E-1 and the person you think is most likely to be scum in the 3pool is voting for him don't you think you have to pump the brakes and think a bit considering how important the day 1 elimination is?

But when bingle saw that you were in E-1 he unvoted.

So doesn't that counter what you're saying?...

[Vanderscamp]

Not really?

Pooky is saying that No Face not reading into my willingness to eliminate Pooky as a possible argument for PookyTown presents itself as proof that No Face isn't actually attempting to read Pooky.

Me unvoting Pooky could mean that I could be scum with Pooky FYPOV, but that doesn't particularly detract from the argument that Pooky is making because at the time that No Face started pushing Pooky I was the biggest proponent of the elimination. Using my unvote to justify the behavior that came before my unvote is backwards logic, unless you also want to argue that NF knew I was going to unvote.

Hence, both Pooky and No Face are fairly scummy. In the world where Pooky is town, he raises some valid points about No Face. In the world where No Face is town, there is still circumstantial evidence that flipping Pooky is a strong play.

Does someone want to towncase Y for me? I'm a bit gunshy on townreading her based on a genuine attempt to gamesolve D1 for reasons I can't go into atm, and would be grateful for explanation.

No, because pooky is the one using the backwards logic in the first place.

When you voted pooky it was before he was at E-1, but pooky is using your willingness for him to be at E-1 as a reason why no face should consider.
But you are not very willing to keep pooky at E-1 as evidenced by your unvote when he got there, so what pooky is saying is just wrong.

[Vanderscamp]

I think it might be pooky and bingle.

[Vanderscamp]

I think it might be pooky and bingle.

I really don't like Bingle for agreeing with Pooky's reasoning that I'm scummy for not reevaluating that one of my scumreads happens to be voting the other. I've been pushed for this as town before and I've never understood it, I just treat my reads independently, and no, Bingle voting for Pooky while I'm sus of both is not going to magically make me less suspicious of Pooky. Yes, it means they are less likely to be aligned if Bingle commits to that vote/push but before that, distancing is a thing, and even if I think Bingle/Pooky aren't aligned, what do I do? I townread 4 others in that and Pooky is nullscum, I don't just randomly go and scumread one of my townreads. I just really don't understand that scumread/reason at all but maybe Pooky and I just think differently

What I really don't like is Bingle agreeing with that assessment though (_(

I agree, I think your stance has consistently made sense and I don't like pooky for going after it, and I don't like bingle for his non commitment about it.

[Vanderscamp]

Maybe I should vote for Bingle then :!

I'm happy to vote for bingle, I still maintain that killing into the small pool is totally fine, if not better.

[Vanderscamp]

But you are not very willing to keep pooky at E-1 as evidenced by your unvote when he got there, so what pooky is saying is just wrong.

Do you think we should end the day right now?

I'd rather end the day with a Pooky kill now than not do so and risk someone I'm less happy killing getting lynched.

[Vanderscamp]

Do you not understand that if Bingle and I were team-scum and if I were to flip scum he would just lose there and the distancing would be worth not a thing?

I'm not sure if this is referring to me, but I understand that point.

I don't think scum are going to refuse to vote their partners at any point, because that's very obvious.
Bingle has just clearly implied that he's against early majorities, and he is almost certainly not the only one.

I think scum bussing at random points in the day (especially prior to unvoting their partner when they actually reach E-1) is extremely possible since I think scum can expect their partners to often not get randomly majjed without warning.

[Vanderscamp]

I'm functionally the exact opposite. I'd rather have a suboptimal elimination and enough content to analyze later on, and I think your stance is an inherently silly one.

Also, I'm fully confident in my ability to force through a Pooky elim if I decide that's what I really want.

The vast majority of games I've played online have days much shorter than they tend to on this site, so we probably have different ideas of what it means to have enough content.

Obviously I'd prefer more content to less content, and I'm a pretty big believer in generally playing conservatively and not majjing people before they have a chance to claim etc, but I also think there is very clear value to having a full day of tallies that actually could mean something, including the chance of an occasional shorter day, than having a meta where everyone knows that votes that get made before like one irl day before deadline are all completely meaningless because no one is willing to maj anyone. That's my version of risking suboptimal eliminations to maximise content, and I am not even a big believer in voting analysis.

But especially in this set, like, I just want the best lynch.
If we kill the scum in the big pool, we autowin the game regardless of how much content we have.
Given the opportunity, I would happily hammer pooky right now.

[Vanderscamp]

What do you expect me to do, demand to only vote people in the small pool?

I still do think it's mechanically best to do so but there are very clearly a bunch of people who are pretty strongly against it.
I have argued for it quite a bit, I would argue harder if I felt that it is mechanically worse than I think it is, but I've also said in other posts that you have neglected to quote that ultimately what I want to do is vote for the person I think is most likely to be evil, which is you.
I think the pool of three is objectively better but I think you are the most evil of any pool (possibly not when adjusted for the differing base scum percentages)

[Vanderscamp]

For clarification: I would argue harder to lynch into the small pool if I felt that lynching into the big pool is mechanically worse than I think it is.
I think it is worse but not horrible, and potentially fine if we have reads to justify it.

[Vanderscamp]

no I'm asking you when you changed your mind on which pool was best to elim in.

In case I need to clarify this more:
I've always thought that lynching into the small pool first is going to be slightly better, and then I did the math and realized that it was better than I thought it was, 41% vs 45% which is far from nothing.
I don't think many of the arguments about lynching into the big pool first are sound. For example, it doesn't matter that small pool scum is not able to bus their partner in the big pool, since if we kill the big pool scum at a point in the game where that is true, we don't need that info since we have won anyway. Another argument that I think is bad is the idea that killing scum in the big pool immediately winning the game is a relevant point. If our reads on the big pool are good enough that that will happen today, it's pretty likely that we are still able to lynch that scum immediately later in the game no matter how many lynches we've spent up until that point in the small pool, and we won't risk a loss even if we completely fail in the small pool.


From a practical standpoint we don't have random reads so we don't need to play entirely by math, and unless there is a serious advantage to one option, we should kill our top evil read. I think up until I started scum reading you my preferred lynch was infinity, who I have since flipped on.
I think we should kill into the small pool if it's a close decision between two separate scum reads in different pools.


Additionally, the fact that there have been many people who are vocal about lynching into the big pool first means that if I think I'm not killing you here and I'm just going to get my preferred kill in the small pool after this, I might as well have my head in the sand because that is fairly clearly not the way this village is going.
I think I've spent a very large amount of time already talking about this, maybe more than anyone else in the game, to a point where it's counterproductive.


I think what you are doing here is trying to find reasons to suspect me.
I don't think anyone else in the game finds it odd that I'm not just dying on that hill and point blank refusing to vote anyone who isn't in the small pool.

[Vanderscamp]

I'd pour you some tea and tell you a story about a Plumber and his favorite teddy bear and at the end of it you would be convinced I could do no harm.

Who do you think it is in the 6-group if this is a TvT? v:

I think its between Ydra and Vand if this is TvT, lean towards Vander - they're both very vehemently on your side, which is kinda how I think scum would play if they had a TvT fight in the thread to hide in.

Don't think Mena would WK me here cuz he's in the elim pool and it's just way easier for him to just lol-hammer me,

pretty sure van is just a wrong townie who is really sure he is right

What changed?

[Vanderscamp]

What changed?

your line about it being better to elim in the 6 pool made me remember your argument with me about the three pool in the beginning of the game and I think it's convenient that you changed your mind about what the best mech play is now that you have a target close to elim.

I really, REALLY don't believe you think this, especially since in my 2000 word explanation to you about it I've never once said that it's better to kill into the big pool.

[Vanderscamp]

You're talking in a way that's like "if the day ended now", when I don't think that's a useful mindset to have, a lot is going to happen on this day 1. You don't have to believe me

But I think it's very conceivable that we never get confirmed towns or scum NKs in the smaller group before losing the game, why do you expect this to happen if we initially kill into the large pool?

If we correctly elim in the small pool (1/3), we're looking at scum needing to miseliminate 3 times in the big pool to win. This is 5/6*4/5*2/3 for optimal play, or about 44%. Yes, scum wins a little bit less than half the time if we correctly eliminate in the small pool. 6:1 with a single IC is not a very strong position for town.

In any other case, scum should be shooting into the bigger pool tonight. As Pooky pointed out, the interactions are more telling when the big pool scum player is on the line than when the little pool scum player is on the line. Therefore, hitting the big pool scum player inevitably gives more information than hitting the small pool scum player.

I agree hitting the big pool scum player is much better, I don't think anyone is arguing that.
But it's also half as likely.

I personally think ensuring that we can kill one scum before we lose the game is more valuable than the other strategies, which is not the case if we aim into the big pool first.

But I mostly agree with whoever said earlier that we should probably just aim to kill the most suspicious player.

I REALLY don't like the idea of leaving the big pool lynch up to the small pool, I'll fight hard against that one.

[Vanderscamp]

but we're guaranteed at least a scum by flipping thru 3p, no?

going for 6p today means we *might* get a win today but otherwise we end up in a similar space tomorrow with a large hood and an unresolved 3p that if i'm counting right we won't be able to flip through, which by definition means mitigating the chances of netting one scum, if i'm counting this right

it kinda reminds me of coalition of whether we ought to be trying to win (getting the coalition day1) or whether we ought to try to mitigate the losses if we don't get the coalition day1 by getting a coalition that will at least be easier to sort through up failing, as those things aren't always necessarily the same thing.

but i think it's usually better here to net the guaranteed scum and then try to find the other scum in the 6p because while it's not as ~flashy~ it'll help our overall chances of winning

if we go thru the small pool we have

(1/3) We hit scum right away - we are playing 1-6 Mountainous with 1 IC rest of the way. (50% WR)

(1/3) We hit scum on 2nd try - we are playing 1-4 Mountainous rest of the way. (40% WR)

(1/3) We hit scum on last try - we are playing 1-2 Endgame (33% WR)

Overall WR -> 41.1%

if we go thru the big pool we have:

(1/6) we hit scum on first try -> game over

(1/4) we hit scum on second try -> we have 2 shots to elim 1 scum in three people (2/3) victory

We miss both times -> we have a (1/2) shot of hitting scum, then a (1/3) endgame if we hit correctly.

Overall WR -> 50%

Your math is wrong.
The top half is correct, but the chance of hitting scum on the second try is not 1/4, it's 5/6 x 1/4.

I don't know how you got 50% but the equation is
(1/6)x1
+ (5/6 x 1/4) x 2/3
+ (5/6 x 3/4) x 1/2 x 1/3

which is 40.97%.

Going for the big pool first is marginally worse but probably doesn't outweigh wanting to lynch whatever our strongest read is.

[Vanderscamp]

I said that stuff well before pushing on you.


So you have flipped from being "pretty sure I was a wrong townie who is really sure he is right" (which was also an incorrect take fwiw since I was not really sure at the time) to thinking I am the most scummy person outside of no face, because you (incorrectly) think that i have changed my opinion on which scum pool is better to lynch into, because you think that I am likely to just ignore the fact that no one (iirc) is voting a single person in the small pool and would just tunnel only wanting to kill into the small pool despite it being very unlikely that that's going to happen.

[Vanderscamp]

My heart wants me to stop believing in it but my head still thinks Pooky is scum T.T

What I just said, and the thing nor just posted, is why I suspect pooky.

His reasoning for his thoughts are either absent, or if they are not absent, are not believeable reasons for thinking the things he says he does.

[Vanderscamp]

I really, REALLY don't believe you think this, especially since in my 2000 word explanation to you about it I've never once said that it's better to kill into the big pool.

the way I read your push for my elim because "if you hit in the big pool you win the game and don't need info" made me feel like you were not only advocating for an elim in the 6 pool but you were also saying its fine to do it quickly - which is a convenient take given the game state.

Did you read any of my posts where I respond directly to you about what exactly I think about what pool we should be lynching into?
This is a genuine question.

[Vanderscamp]

But especially in this set, like, I just want the best lynch.
If we kill the scum in the big pool, we autowin the game regardless of how much content we have.
Given the opportunity, I would happily hammer pooky right now.

This is you pushing for a quick-hammer on me today.

You say one of the big reasons for this is because we won't need information if I flip scum because the game will be over.

This statement is objectively true but I know I'm not flipping scum so you kind of will need information and it's not good to rush this.

From an uninformed town perspective without knowledge of my alignment which is what you should have, you don't know whether the elim target is scum or town, so you want more information anyway.

I agree, more information is better than less information.

And I talked about this in the rest of my post, I'm not willing to live in a meta where the entire day contains no information because people are unwilling to ever lynch anyone early (idk if this should even count as early) and scum are aware of this.

I'm not sure how to really respond to this?
Yes, if I knew you were town, I would not want to quick hammer you.
I do want to quick hammer you because I think you are mafia and I would rather lynch the people I suspect.

This is why I'm your 2nd top scum now?

[Vanderscamp]

Did you read any of my posts where I respond directly to you about what exactly I think about what pool we should be lynching into?
This is a genuine question.

are you talking about where you say we should always elim whoever is the most suspicious?

No, I mean the posts earlier when you ask me which pool I think is best to lynch into and then I give you very detailed answers (before the part where you incorrectly state what my answer was)

[Vanderscamp]

Basically everything you are talking about now, I clarified on page 41 (starting from about #1001 if your pages are different)

[Vanderscamp]

we are not even 2 days into a 14 day deadline why are you trying to push a quick hammer?

Ok, that is pretty early.
I wasn't aware of how long we had or even really how long we have been playing.



So here's my question to you: if it is so absurdly early to lynch someone, why should no case have needed to re evaluate you and bingle being together from bingle expressing suspicion onto you and voting you? Because he can very easily change his mind and unvote, which is for the most part what has actually happened.

[Vanderscamp]

Do you think quick elims can't possibly happen?


When a town player votes and that wagon gathers steam esp from people they suspect and in a ruleset where bussing results in auto-lose how does a town player not re-evaluate at that point?

I think no case has given a pretty satisfactory answer to this question.....

[Vanderscamp]

Pooky’s making it out like it’s an very aggressive push from No Face, when it’s not. And that seems a bit disingenious from Pooky.

Norwee how dead do I have to be before it's considered aggressive?

If you got lynched does that make Mena's "push on you" aggressive too?

[Vanderscamp]

You can tell this is what he is doing right now with his push on me. It's not alignment sorting - it's push to kill.

This really isn't true :<

Pooky’s making it out like it’s an very aggressive push from No Face, when it’s not. And that seems a bit disingenious from Pooky.

I think a huge amount of what he's saying is disingenuous!

[Vanderscamp]

It seems very very obvious to me, even more so than before, that this player pool can reasonably expect there to be a <5% chance that any of the votes up until now are going to lead to an early majority.

I don't expect my E-1 vote to come across as exceptionally towny to everyone, but if my vote is getting the reaction that it did, what the hell kind of reaction can we expect from an early hammer?

From what people have said it seems like this player list is not exactly loaded with wild cards, so I have the very strong opinion that scum have had no reason at all to be afraid to bus at this stage of the game as hard as they wan without basically any fear of repercussion

Does anyone disagree with this?
Because I'm just very confused why people think that any of the voting or pushes so far mean anything at all in terms of eliminating scum combinations considering how meaningless it seems to be in this meta.

[Vanderscamp]

The downside is that if you change your mind later it might look suspicious.

Do you think that this player pool is comprised of people who are not competent enough to figure out how to re evaluate on people without sounding suspicious?
Or, better yet, do you think there's a single person in this player pool who is bad enough at scum to not be able to do that?

[Vanderscamp]

I think especially considering how much everybody talked about bussing being impossible in this set, any scum who thinks they're capable of it is much more tempted than they otherwise would be to distance from their partner, knowing that it's very unlikely to amount to anything and it will pay dividends later.
This is a wifom assumption, but I think it's pretty clear that scum should at least not be less incentivized to have bussed so far, two days into a 14 day D1, unless I am severely misreading the meta of this site.

And if bussing has happened so far this game it obviously has already paid dividends given what a large % of players have been saying.

[Vanderscamp]

If I ruled out a scumteam pair due solely to bussing and the player in the 3p changes their mind, you bet that pair will shoot to the top of my list.

Will it, though?

Because Bingle did essentially exactly this with Pooky, and even though Pooky's reasoning while under pressure has been atrocious, multiple people are talking about how the Pooky wagon was too easy and there was too little resistance to it from the 3p group.

[Vanderscamp]

Pooky’s making it out like it’s an very aggressive push from No Face, when it’s not. And that seems a bit disingenious from Pooky.

Norwee how dead do I have to be before it's considered aggressive?

No matter how I wrap my head around it, I can't take this line as good faith from Pooky

Everyone has an early suspicion and vote, yes scum need mislaunches, but town also vote whoever they most suspect at any given time. He's somehow managed to characterize my PoE vote with nor reasons attached and not soemthing I tried to push at all as "aggressive, intent to kill, driving a miselim"

I never started properly reading and pushing him as scum

until

he was scumreading me for those absurd reasons

and then there's the Bingle thing which I really don't want to talk about again...

#.#

I think there's no question that line is not in good faith, the question is whether pooky is town and is just saying this stuff defensively or not.
But him getting killed or not obviously doesn't change how strong your initial push was.

[Vanderscamp]

are you serious

did you not just play that mini with us where I hard defended the shit out of norwee-town?[/q]
I think pooky is even more mafia now

I think it is EXTREMELY scummy to say "well who could this player possibly have pushed on other than me?" and then try to use the above as a reason why no face wouldn't be inclined to push Norwegian, to nitpick at an answer to a question that is very obviously wrong.
Like, it should be extremely clear to everyone that pooky is not literally the only player in the pool of six that no face could have pushed on.

What? Sorry, i don't understand why this makes you think Pooky is even more mafia? Although my focus is ebbing. It's been a long day for me.

My reason was that Pooky's original statement was something along the lines of pooky being the only person no face could reasonably have pushed.
I think that statement is pretty clearly not true, and what I really didn't like was when someone gave an answer of other people no face could have pushed, pooky committed to it harder by trying to argue against the answer.

[Vanderscamp]

I'm functionally the exact opposite. I'd rather have a suboptimal elimination and enough content to analyze later on, and I think your stance is an inherently silly one.

Also, I'm fully confident in my ability to force through a Pooky elim if I decide that's what I really want.

The vast majority of games I've played online have days much shorter than they tend to on this site, so we probably have different ideas of what it means to have enough content.

Obviously I'd prefer more content to less content, and I'm a pretty big believer in generally playing conservatively and not majjing people before they have a chance to claim etc, but I also think there is very clear value to having a full day of tallies that actually could mean something, including the chance of an occasional shorter day, than having a meta where everyone knows that votes that get made before like one irl day before deadline are all completely meaningless because no one is willing to maj anyone. That's my version of risking suboptimal eliminations to maximise content, and I am not even a big believer in voting analysis.

But especially in this set, like, I just want the best lynch.
If we kill the scum in the big pool, we autowin the game regardless of how much content we have.
Given the opportunity, I would happily hammer pooky right now.

This just feels like filler.

It's not filler, I'm responding to being asked about it.

[Vanderscamp]

Ydrasse, Mena, Pooky, No Face have all felt town.
Vandercamp's felt fake. He was so obviously town to me in the previous game we had, here his posts seem artificial and constructed.

I think if Norwegian is scum pushing a mislynch on me, he would definitely say that I'm acting different to last game where I was town with him, but I think he'd be less likely to strengthen his own read on me by saying that he thought I was obviously town in that game because it just looks worse for him when I flip.

[Vanderscamp]

like the way I think about votes in the early game, you're going for two things

1) Reactions
2) Kills

If you vote and start talking to them, you're looking for a certain reaction to help you solve their slot

If you vote and you don't talk to them and just twiddle your thumbs while they get closer to elim - you're voting to kill them.

I find scum tend to vote early, then never read-progress as the wagon builds, then when it goes thru early and a kill happens, they don't have accountability issues on the next day.

For example I was elimmed d1 recently in a newbie game, the scum was the first person who voted me and he never came back to talk to me, I got quick-elimmed and he ended up winning fairly quickly.

I would argue that no case has been talking to you, do you disagree?
And the progression has not been the one you thought it would be, but no case is now more convinced you're mafia than before you started talking.

So why is this not towny?

[Vanderscamp]

I feel like Vandercamp's been avoiding talking about my read on him, and it's concerning me. I wanted to vibe with him as usual, but it's like he's just not there. In body yes, but his spirit is gone.

I'm responding to the specifics but a lot of what you say is stuff like "the light is out compared to last game" which is pretty hard to respond to.

[Vanderscamp]

Going thru the votes/players on it:
Nor - dont remember his vote or like anything he's said

I wasn't on it.

oh maybe that's why i don't remember your vote then
who was the other vote

ydrasse jingle no face infinty (e1) vander (e1)

or was infinity only e2 and i'm misremembering it as two e1 votes
i feel like someone unvoted in between

IIRC infinity voted at E-1 and then unvoted immediately.

[Vanderscamp]

i'm finding this no face / pooky thing to be kinda boring and circular. i think they're most likely tvt tbh

I'm not getting a ton out of their recent posts.

What I'm still confused by is the reactions to it.
With the exception of bingle, who is hedging, basically everyone seems to be agreeing that what no case is saying is extremely reasonable and what pooky is saying is not.
But I've highlighted several examples of what I feel are things that it seems very unlikely that a town would actually believe, things like pooky saying that no face had no options other than to have pushed on pooky (and then digging deeper into that stance by talking about how he's great at defending townNor), him swapping me from "pretty sure town" to most likely mafia after no case for the reason that I'm not unwilling to vote outside of the small pool, and the post "when I get lynched is it still not aggressive?" which caused me to feel sick IRL.

I think at best, pooky is a town who has just lost his mind after being called a PoE kill by someone, but I think it's a lot more likely that these extremely strange arguments from someone who apparently enjoys 1 vs 1ing people as scum are not being made in good faith.

[Vanderscamp]

VOTE: vanders

What part of my pooky arguments do you disagree on?

[Vanderscamp]

There's a bit to respond to there but it blows my mind how I could be considered flipbait and not pooky, given what each of us has said this game

[Vanderscamp]

@infinity/vander:
my mind is very like gamestate-oriented more than mechanics-oriented and the way they're arguing and how people are interacting with it kinda feels tvt to me - the pooky wagon grew super fast (and from my pov at least i know it's scum fueled because both jingle and infinity were on it) and once mena punctured it the tvt became a Giant Thing that's just kinda ~there~ but other than like vander nobody's really engaging with it and neither side is gaining traction - if it were tvs i imagine that the t half would be going somewhere but, like, that's not really happening. scum are just kinda content to let it be a thing that's taking up space but dont' really doing anything abt it otherwise

if there's scum in the pair i think it's more likely hectic than pooky but i wouldn't feel very good betting on either rn, at least part of which is that i dont' think i've had a very good grasp on what's been going on; my apologies for being absent but i think that all of my extra vla stuff is over for now

@mena: i haven't the foggiest idea what the thought process was behind the 3p and i can't imagine why i'd make this group either. i also will not vote vander today and i dont know why you're scumreading him. he's literally flipbait and doesn't really have a scumpartner imo

I guess the thing I most want to respond to is your thoughts on how the wagon formed.

Bingle said pooky was his top scum and voted him, but then immediately unvoted him when the wagon hit E-1.
Do you think that is inconsistent with them being partners? Because I expect scum to be fairly likely to have bussed early in this set given what everyone was saying, and I have trouble believing bingle believes the stuff he is saying about Pooky's responses to no case being valid.
Like, even in the world where I am super super wrong and pooky is town and no case is scum, pooky is obviously correct about no case's intentions, but even then there has been a bunch of what pooky has been saying about the situation that is still definitely not correct.

I also think infinity voted pooky only briefly, but I think infinity is town so I'm not as worried about this.


I'm also not sure why when the fact that momentum on both candidates has died down dramatically since the momentum has been increasing is a sign of it being town on town. Sure, if it was t vs s, mafia are sort of incentivized to push the t, but aren't they also incentivized to not solve it at all?
Why wouldn't they want to flip pooky (or no case) and make the other one (and me if pooky is flipped) look really bad?

[Vanderscamp]

What's panic room?

[Vanderscamp]

There's a bit to respond to there but it blows my mind how I could be considered flipbait and not pooky, given what each of us has said this game

i mean no offense! <3 but in this pl a lot of people know each other and are considered hard pushes and you are one of the people who are, like, not and i townread you so i think that i need to quash these as they come up cuz otherwise if you're town i'd bet good money that you're gonna end up as a misflip

this isn't an indictment on your play or anything so much as i think that compared to everyone else you're gonna be easier to get flipped
~

I guess the thing I most want to respond to is your thoughts on how the wagon formed.

Bingle said pooky was his top scum and voted him, but then immediately unvoted him when the wagon hit E-1.
Do you think that is inconsistent with them being partners? Because I expect scum to be fairly likely to have bussed early in this set given what everyone was saying, and I have trouble believing bingle believes the stuff he is saying about Pooky's responses to no case being valid.
Like, even in the world where I am super super wrong and pooky is town and no case is scum, pooky is obviously correct about no case's intentions, but even then there has been a bunch of what pooky has been saying about the situation that is still definitely not correct.

I also think infinity voted pooky only briefly, but I think infinity is town so I'm not as worried about this.


I'm also not sure why when the fact that momentum on both candidates has died down dramatically since the momentum has been increasing is a sign of it being town on town. Sure, if it was t vs s, mafia are sort of incentivized to push the t, but aren't they also incentivized to not solve it at all?
Why wouldn't they want to flip pooky (or no case) and make the other one (and me if pooky is flipped) look really bad?

wrt bingle i mean, like, ig but if pooky really is scum:
- he's gonna look super super super bad if pooky ever flips and there was a fair amt of momentum towards that happening
- to sort of compound that if scum his entire plan seems to be trying to find scum in the 6p. if he's partnered with pooky that means he's gone into this game having some sort of narrative for how he'd interact with scum-pooky and how he'd be pushing him; or to say it another way no matter who his partner is he's going to be having some sort of idea for how he'd interact with his partner. starting a wagon on a partner and then unvoting is just kind of inelegant and doesn't really match the narrative that scum-bingle would be trying to cultivate and quite honestly he's better than that

also if scum is likely to be bussing why would he even unvote >.>
wrt momentum dying see what i wrote to ydrasse above but, like, what do you think scum are doing rn ?

My guess if bingle and pooky are scum, which is the most likely team for me atm, is that bingle planned to bus pooky, didn't expect pooky to react so poorly and was genuinely afraid that pooky would be killed and the game would be over, so he felt the need to unvote and take a neutral stance to not be obvious either way.

It's not like he went super hard against pooky earlier, he just called him his top scum and then voted on him.
I think it's very conceivable that he expected pooky to flip at some point this game and was planning on pointing to that interaction as something that would exclude them from being partners (and if this is the case, I think it's pretty clear that it would very likely have been successful, even with his unvote it is still an uphill battle to convince people that it's a viable team)



What do I think scum is doing right now?
I don't know, if either pooky or no case is mafia I would not expect scum to be hard pushing or hard defending either the town or scum in that scenario, for fairly clear reasons, I would expect them to be waffling and showing no real interest in solving it, and you and bingle, who are my top two scum reads in the small pool, are both doing that.

I'm not saying that the interaction between pooky and no case is obviously t vs s or anything but I think if anything it points that way and certainly not the reverse.
There doesn't seem to be any scum in the 6p pool who is capitalising on this t vs t fight, the only people who really qualify are myself and yd, who I think are the two most likely town people in the big pool.


Additionally I don't care as much about any of this as I do about just reading what no case and pooky have to say.
I think Pooky is very obviously suspicious and unless it's super obvious that this is t vs t somehow, which it isn't to me, that outweighs the semi-wifom about how evils are going to interact with each other.

[Vanderscamp]

Btw Pook, i didn’t read up to now so i don’t know if you’ve changed your stance over the course of today. But do you think you would still have scumread No Face if his PoE reads singled out someone else other than you? Or is it largely based on you thinking you should be read as town up to that point?

This was a good question and I'm sad pooky didn't really answer it.

[Vanderscamp]

i mean no offense! <3 but in this pl a lot of people know each other and are considered hard pushes and you are one of the people who are, like, not and i townread you so i think that i need to quash these as they come up cuz otherwise if you're town i'd bet good money that you're gonna end up as a misflip

Is this why you think Vander is flipbait? Because i’ve played one game with him, and an certain amount of other players seem to have done the same.

I don't really disagree!

If we're both here, do you want to talk more about why you think I'm suspicious?

[Vanderscamp]

GG guys, WP

I really really felt Pooky was scum from the point where I voted him so I basically had one agenda from that point on
Really glad he did turn out to be scum, otherwise I would have looked and felt very foolish hahaha