Mini 2206 - Deja Vu: Perpetual MELO IV - END!

[Kismet]

Hi!

I've never played this setup but it seems like E-2 is the new E-1 here -- opportunities for scum to quickhammer and sac that person at night giving no chance at an elim on that member means that we should tread lightly in that regard.

[Kismet]

Vote: Not_Mafia

Seems like a foregone conclusion anyways.

Not_Mafia is a slot I flip when we're up 2-0 or when interactions make it more likely. I don't know why you'd want to start there.

[Kismet]

if we just do this early on and he's town and we flip him we just let scum jettison their weakest player, and if he's scum and we flip him we just lose our strongest player

i mean, to be fair, those things are going to happen no matter who we flip. I'd rather just flip people are just going to more likely emit their alignment early in the game

[Kismet]

I've played w/ the majority of this plist, including you, and if this alt isn't burned by page 20 i'll be very surprised.

[Kismet]

'ugh might as well just do it and get it over with

I'm not convinced of that interpretation at this time

[Kismet]

I'm not hectic.

[Kismet]

'ugh might as well just do it and get it over with

I'm not convinced of that interpretation at this time

even if I were I'd still ask: why is that more likely scum motivated?

[Kismet]

i think that makes us the clodpoles

[Kismet]

but it's the first thing i saw that could potentially be worth a real vote

i'm not trying to get to strength of conviction here, i'm more just asking "if this is a scum play, what is nacho actually trying to do w/ it" because at first glance it just seems like something you don't understand or agree with

[Kismet]

trying to get an easy flip without too much discussion if possible to get to night faster

ultimately i think this take is reasonable.

My issue is that it's a bit overly simplistic/naive (how we get from Nacho's singular vote to a D1 elim (with the assumption that that's what he's even trying to do here) on N_M w/o further action on Nacho's part is something I have trouble believing would actually happen)

I'm not going to overreact about it due to where it happened in the game (p1) and what you were upgrading from (rvs) and i think that fact is important to consider for overall Trajectory

[Kismet]

If you're an alt, then your 5 is a lie??

what

[Kismet]

I like skitt as well I think

I can see this and I like the tone in 48 overall, even if I've been grilling her before now.
Would be curious to as to any insight on that read, as I think it's one of high priority

[Kismet]

also i have another guess for u!

feel free i just don't want to monopolize the game w/ that
(which i believe is the exact thing i said the last time i decided to play on an alt)

[Kismet]

You said on your post 5 that you never played in this setup but you're an alt, right? If so, then you may actually played in this setup before just not from this current account?

I mean the fact that you have to take me at my word doesn't mean I'm lying. I've really not played this setup.

[Kismet]

I mean if something better comes up I'm all for it but as for right now we know that we're taking an L on Not_Mafia if town eventually (maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but eventually) - if he's mafia then we have one shot and one shot only to kill him and that's right this second.

We literally don't even have to kill him to win. I'm having a hard time seeing where you're going with this.

[Kismet]

If he's scum we only have one day to get a sweet point out of him.

Why? I can easily see n_m being a either a 2-0 hedge flip or a last second hail mary to try to save the game (although that probably wouldn't be my move in most cases but I can't predict the future)

why is he only elimmable d1?

p-edit: if some of these questions aren't being asked in good faith (i.e. trying to use them to bait reactions rather than meaning them in earnest then fair enough, but otherwise I don't really see what makes his viability so temporally dependent)

p-p-edit: eh.

[Kismet]

This is a convoluted play if Salsa is scum here.

The chances of Not_Mafia being scum and us having to hit him today rise.

????????????????????????????

[Kismet]

Nacho

like unless you're confident that he's easier to finagle a point out of than other people in the playerlist
I don't understand what any of this song and dance is about

[Kismet]

Wrt to salsa i think he's saying he's getting town glimmers from her

i know I just don't see that from that line of questioning from salsa, it seems not something that anyone could reasonably expect to push me on and therefore pretty null

[Kismet]

hard tunnels get potentially interesting in this kind of setup because scum are inclined to do them, win that day, and just peace out of the game the next day after the flip makes them look horrible

i think we should be insisting that people take a fairly breadth-first approach to the game.

[Kismet]

I kinda want you to shoot your guess shot
maybe, just maybe, we can do something good together this game

[Kismet]

Notsci please @ me when you're also townreading salsa

while you're doing that i'm curious as to what you think of how Bulge opened

[Kismet]

(that's to noddy, not nacho)

[Kismet]

In my heart of hearts I want to believe that Infinity, VFT and I have all found each other early; Infinity is probably the closest thing I have to a proper townread atm, and I generally like how skitter is approaching the nacho read overall.

I'm not willing to sell Nacho down the river at this point; I don't like the angle he's chosen to open with but I don't think it has a lot of staying power as a place to sit on a mislim. It's possible that 101 is happening I guess but like I'm never gonna get to that w/o n_m at least showing up for the game. I have a tendency to scumread nacho early from days of yore, but the stuff w/ Salsa is giving me a little pause in that he's possibly trying to latch on to the tonal things he things he can read in some of the people reacting to what he's doing, and you can see that w/ Salsa here.

very eager to see how noddy/bulge resolve themselves; both chose to kind of signal each other in their first posts and I'm curious to see where that goes.

I have some thoughts on Mena but I think it's too early in the game to really do much w/ it yet based on the content I've seen from that slot.

I like the vote on L&G and am going to go there too; mostly just cause I wanna be somewhere, iso is pretty vapid, and the phrasing of 109 just irks me vs a more reasonable "who are you scumreading atm"
VOTE: L&G

[Kismet]

Lilith has my favorite response to my push, notscience my least favorite. The scum motivation that Lilith presented makes more sense than what skitter did and it feels more like she's trying to figure me out whereas skitter it's more "what Nacho is doing is bad" versus "what Nacho is doing is likely to be coming from scum". With regards to notscience I don't understand why giving Not mafia space is important to start reading him and I don't like that he didn't try to read me or my push in any way.

Vote: notscience

I do think it's worth noting that 10 is the only post you'd made by the time noddy posted anything he did this game and I think to call what you'd done by that point a "push" is a bit much.

[Kismet]

to engage noddy at all is probably +town for nacho though imo

ESPECIALLY if noddy is scum

p-edit: mmmmm hmmmmmm

[Kismet]

I think noddy is a (generally) very easy to read chap; I feel like Nacho also thinks this and in a game where it's possible to essentially "rescue" buddies from being elimed the last thing I would wanting to be doing is to put that team member under a microscope as soon as humanly possible.

(This could be taken to say that noddy doesn't play scum well; this is not what I'm trying to imply here, and god knows I'm not the sort of person to be throwing that kinda stone anyway, but this is my attempt to explain my thought process)

[Kismet]

1)why do you think I voted bulge
2)what exactly do you think is readable in his reaction

1) Outside of a generic "to elicit some kind of readable reaction" I don't really have anything profound on that front
2) 24 felt like a minor dodge of 13

[Kismet]

gamblers fallacy says bc I drew town he has to be scum

I mean you obvously don't really believe this so can you speak about what you mean more plainly?

[Kismet]

I mean I basically agree and was more waiting to see how that relationship developed than i was to throw down about it now

what were you trying to get at in 131?

[Kismet]

right back atcha (you're one of the few people in this list i've not played w/ Infinity)

p-edit: yeah, i'm not exactly hiding here lol

[Kismet]

If it’s my first pick you’re probably my strongest townread!

yeah, uh, you're probably on the right track lol

[Kismet]

i think it's skitter's turn to try next

[Kismet]

As I said earlier, if we're up 2-0 and we're struggling to find a third and he's alive, we should have that convo.

I consider this similar to like an at-bat in baseball; if you get ahead in the count, either as a batter or pitcher, you have the unique opportunity to make a conservative play w/ some guaranteed value in it akin to not swinging at a 3-0 pitch and seeing if the pitcher will screw up themselves.

[Kismet]

Also: is it bad that i'm kinda townreading everyone who posted on the prior page?

I need something substantive from DC before I go anywhere near a townread on that slot; this n_m insistence is just really easy to talk theory about

[Kismet]

I'm reading him more for being frustrated abt it than the his actual stance if that makes sense

It does, and I get that's a personal experience read for you and am endeavoring to take it into account

[Kismet]

My experience is that Not Mafia tends to lurk a lot, doesn't tend to scumhunt nor contribute in a significant way to the point where he basically doesn't play the game.

Nacho,

people generally 'get' this part of your point, and either agree or are at least sympathetic to it although this is a ymmv experience from game to game

i think at least where you're losing me is that you seem to be saying that scum getting the opportunity to safehouse (i'm going to use this term to refer to a scum reverse nk) n_m is like a huge value play for them, to the point that we need to scorched earth the shit out of that slot to ensure that they don't have the opportunity to do this, even if he is town.

and i just don't understand the significance of that play in particular. if he's town and we mislim him we're down 1-0, same as mislimming anyone else. and yes, in the 'anyone else' case, scum now has the opportunity to safehouse n_m. why is it such a +++scum move to do that? i think if you can elaborate on that we might get to a spot of more mutual understanding

[Kismet]

I wasn’t pissed at you I was just a bit frustrated that EVERYONE was shooting it down

bc I have no baseline or any idea of who it is and that inherently makes me slightly +sus unless it’s hectic (which it apparently isn’t)

I’m not SRing them, I just feel uneasy with the slot

-Mena

not thrilled with this progression in that, uncharitably, i want to interpret it as:

mena: "hey skitter, are you up for me chipping away at that kismet townread?"
skitter: NO SALE
mena: <darn, better change tack on that and make it more just general paranoia about the fact that i don't know who i'm dealing with>

which like isn't a terrible angle in and of itself, but two things: 1) dunno why you single me out there if your read just boils down to "dunno spooky alt", and 2) you've taken the whole "i've tried nothing and am out of ideas" approach to reading me so far

[Kismet]

only that’s not what happened? I wanted to know why skitt was TRing you bc you’re evidently experienced but I have no idea what your scumgame is like from a range of like FL to kerset

I singled you out bc u were the only one I didn’t get from skitt’s pov (infinity isn’t town either yet, but skitt generally slaps a read on her earlier than I will)

And like yeh, no shit I haven’t tried reading u yet, hence why i was surprised to see skitt professing a TR on a v unknown quality in a game where there’s like, reasonable incentive for scum to TR each other

i'm aware i'm spinning this a bit because i think that might be the potential reason for scum to approach from that angle.

i wasn't really considering the point of you trying to force skitter to legitimize her read on me, and that's fair.

overall, i have a decent amount of content out there and i guess i am expecting at least some engagement on it though, but if your primary focus is on skitter at this point in time rather than me with that progression, that really does change my interpretation of your trajectory and i don't mind it as much.

[Kismet]

if there's one thing i don't like about cakez so far is progression on VFT

you come in a slot you're supposedly very wary of ("you always snow me", etc.)
but like outside of 241 (are you calling lilith's 101 scummy there? can't tell) you've got virtually no progression or focus on the slot and then they're just in your "don't like" pool because ????

i get being paranoid of strong scum but that's not the vibe i'm getting here.

[Kismet]

Nacho reacted pretty much how I'd expect him to as scum here
town!Nacho would reach out before immediately diving for an attack I think

based on what prior art in particular here?

i briefly looked at popcorn because i know that was a recent TvT game you both had but so much of early game was tammy i kinda gave up on making any useful conclusion from it.

[Kismet]

Popcorn yeah. Nacho reached out too; it wasn't just Tammy. Very similar situation where I opened SRing the slot.

also thinking about this more:
popcorn is a game where you literally can't vote people
it just would not have occurred to me to even try to use that as a basis for a comparison, much less come to the conclusion you came to pretty much on the fly

[Kismet]

and it's reminiscent of tenet + the normal.

+1 to this for me so far, although i do think you have it in you to beastmode as scum and as such am not all the way there yet, but your engagement after nacho went after you early seemed forceful and legitimate and such are the things day 2 passes are made from

[Kismet]

was to noddy, yeah realized after the fact that would be confusing

[Kismet]

wasn't my two I mentioned earlier.

ok i have to ask who was the other guess

[Kismet]

cabd. i think like unwnd > prism > maybe peta

i'm actually pretty flattered being compared w/ any of these really

[Kismet]

muffin

this is inside joke hilarious actually

[Kismet]

i think in Theory i could be muffin but in Praxis we don't sound anything alike

[Kismet]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=85994 some salsa scum meta (do not read on sepia)

possibly not the only reason i linked that game just now you tell me

don't feel like i'd be able to meta her w/ any kind of confidence; and she played pretty well in this game only kinda just getting inched out of a win at the very end

i'm a little worried about the giant pass nacho is willing to give and i liked noddy's reaction to nacho's pushing it his way

[Kismet]

ultimately this was always less about salsa and more about nacho to me in that i think her bringing up 5 is just nothing rather than the First Wednesday of the Month Town Tornado Siren Testing Drill he's saying it is

but, she might be town, and sometimes nacho just has these tonal reads that just fucking click.

[Kismet]

not feeling very good about this game

would you indulge me as to why?

[Kismet]

I don't generally consider that to be a scum correlative behavior really

for me i'm more just trying to see the evolution of the nacho stance
i feel like being able to vote does make a difference as this was not really an action open to him in that game but ok, i acknowledge your interpretation of nacho's demeanor toward you

i'm still trying to make up my mind and trying to see where your head is overall; attitudewise stuff like 337 i can see coming from frustrated town which is why i engaged

[Kismet]

trying to make a habit of doing more listening and less judging early and letting the town just town themselves to me and seeing if that works better than some previous recent disasters i've been involved with

[Kismet]

UNVOTE:

[Kismet]

kind of gross post
seems like someone who felt like they had to post "content" and threw something out

I actually had the same general sentiments, even if the post is not very detailed.
I guess I object to the sensationalist "gross" modifier on it.

[Kismet]

(1) :rolleyes:

is this a rolleyes because you think you got a nonanswer here (the answer made sense to me)
or is it a rolleyes because you think you should be higher?

[Kismet]

mena how does skitter look to you in the 13-14 range?

[Kismet]

I actually had the same general sentiments, even if the post is not very detailed.
I guess I object to the sensationalist "gross" modifier on it.

realize i'm not necessarily being clear here -

i had the same sentiments as leaf did about skitter/N_M,

and not the same opinion that you're expressing here

[Kismet]

By virtue of being unreadable NM is pretty good at the latter

I think this is a really concise summary of why the entire initial premise from Nacho didn't click with me.

Also, happy birthday!

[Kismet]

You don't get to play with nice Nacho after you drove me to wanting to gouge my eyeballs out with a McFlurry spoon in Popcorn Mafia. I will not be putting myself through that hell again, and if you want to play the same game that you played with us last time, I won't be only person having a bad time.

This is a little concerning because it's the sort of thing I see from scum trying to show their fangs early to get someone to back off or put them off balance, and not a thing town do to try to figure out what the person attacking them actually is

I had a very similar interaction w/ muffin in a game a long time ago and he turned out to be scum for it.

that's not to say that that everyone plays the same here, but i don't get what you're trying to do here if town, especially since popcorn eventually ended in y'all mostly backing off each other.

[Kismet]

that said tonally nacho is hitting the right "annoyed" notes with the "cabd school of reading nacho" stuff so i don't fucking know, but i think the tone stuff is the first thing i throw out the window when the going gets tough later

[Kismet]

The 13-14 range? Not following

page 13-14

[Kismet]

I would also love to hear thoughts on my point that I think scum are bus!disincentivised unless in a lot of trouble, and the fact that there seems to be no appetite for NM is therefore +scum

I think it's a fundamentally weak point because it requires that scum came into the game in this headspace and you have no way of testing that assertion
it also relies partially on the alignments of the people pushing n_m so it's something to maybe come back to d2+ at best for me
and mostly....there's just no need to use this as a crutch in lieu of like....getting reads and shit like normal which i kiiiiiiinda feel you've been doing the whole game

[Kismet]

I think people also value their scumreads more highly than they should - case in point, you scumreading me here.

=/

[Kismet]

VFT and kismet are towny, so is salsa somewhat. I forget who else was defending NM

i'm not advocating doing anything except just trying to take a holistic approach to the game. I don't have a read on n_m yet.

[Kismet]

in a game like this where multiple scum are 100% going to flip at some point, generating interactions between most slots early seems like it should be at a premium. and so far most of the content has been around someone who basically hasn't posted

[Kismet]

VOTE: DC

i am, at this point, sufficiently tweaked out by DC having a post count that is the size of mine with basically nothing worth a shit other than "notscience is posting so i guess he's town" and a whole bunch of n_m theorytalk in it

[Kismet]

Muffin also brings the fangs out when he's frustrated as town, or directs vitriol at people when they clearly aren't going to listen to them any other way.

this seems unrelated to what i'm talking about. i'm aware he gets mean for other reasons.

[Kismet]

nacho i'm trying to believe but you're making it very hard

cakez came at you and you just aggressively postured at him in a way that doesn't make me confident you're trying to figure his alignment out.

[Kismet]

What are your current reads?

i'll get to this later when i'm not playing in the moment

[Kismet]

nacho i'm trying to believe but you're making it very hard

cakez came at you and you just aggressively postured at him in a way that doesn't make me confident you're trying to figure his alignment out.

If you don't see how my approach to Cakez will help me read him then I'm not really sure what to tell you other than if I do something you don't understand it does not make me a better scum candidate.

this would work a lot better if you just said what you mean to say instead of expressing incredulity at every turn

[Kismet]

Explain how (1) my post count is relevant here (2) my being hesitant on TRs is scummy (3) how my engagement with infinity, cakez, you, and vote on leafy/glacey is “N_M” theory talk and not sorting?

it's relevant from a signal/noise ratio - you're here often, but any time you're here i don't see a lot of analysis on anything but n_m and that worries me because it's a really easy thing to talk about because ultimately it boils down to a philosophy and not anything related to alignments this game
i never said being hesistant on TRs is scummy, i just don't see the process or many even attempts at conclusions yet

[Kismet]

Seems hella convenient that you’re sussing me when I’m like the only one who hasn’t been happy to rubberstamp you as town, kismet!

why is that convenient exactly? i don't expect everyone in the game to townread me (esp a game w/ 5 scum in it who ostensibly want to win)

[Kismet]

like is that really your argument? "shit i got that 10 out of 11 townreads (or somewhere in that vein), but fuck, DANGER ZONE, better play defense"

[Kismet]

Have we played together before on your main

barely and i was scum anyway

[Kismet]

That doesn’t mean I’m not forming reads and I have like no idea what u mean by “you can’t see the process”

i mean i can't. before you posted that read list i had no idea how you felt about anything or how you were attempting to get there. it's why i tried to engage you about skitter - i liked the content in the p13-14 range and i wanted to see if you felt the same, but i feel like you're retreating into the safe place of just talking theory about why getting rid of n_m is good or bad and i that is worrying to me.

[Kismet]

jesus noddy how many people in 2181 that were scum could i possibly be besides ffery who i'm obviously not, unwnd who i said i'm not, or.....

[Kismet]

Oh it’s bork

yes.

and this is kismet:

Spoiler:

[Kismet]

I asked you what you meant by 13–14 and if you answered I didn’t see it

i clarified that i meant 13-14 were pages

[Kismet]

Nacho i'm trying to figure out a way to engage you that's going to be productive. let me think on it a bit but i'm not trying to antagonize you here.

p-edit: that's helpful and yeah it's hard to see how you've been playing (or feeling) behind the scenes in a lot of those hydra games because you've generally been the less active partner

[Kismet]

u need me to explain later

no. based on conversations we've had in the past both in and out of game this is basically what i expected from you the minute i was outed, no matter what your alignment is this game.

[Kismet]

Notsci — town
Nacho

VFT — lean town
Infinity

BHL — null
Salsa
NM
Bulge

Kismet — lean scum
Cakez
Leafy/glacey

i mean i basically feel like i have to ask "why" on every name here other than noddy and anything in your null range, although i guess your "why" on me so far is that i'm OMGUSing you for not explicitly townreading me before that point

which is, by the way, an ass reason

[Kismet]

i do get some vibes of GIF hanging me out to try in illicit from ol' leafy here but eh, i'd probably have been annoyed with that if i'd been town there too

[Kismet]

whereas with nacho’s readslist you just had this shot of divine insight as to why every name was in the position it was?

did i ever say this?
am i calling nacho town?

i see some progressions from nacho just in short term memory w/o having to look at the thread on vft, l&g, noddy, cakez. that's not to say i completely understand or agree w/ them all, but that's a harder problem to solve.

[Kismet]

(1) :rolleyes:

is this a rolleyes because you think you got a nonanswer here (the answer made sense to me)
or is it a rolleyes because you think you should be higher?

nonanswer,

I agree with like, whoever it was that said I haven’t been particularly towny yet

I’m gonna let ydrasse do the obvtowning for our slot probably

-Mena

Nacho why are we so low in your reads

-Mena

meanwhile in cogdis land (that i expect to get picked apart semantically for mentioning)

[Kismet]

nacho i think the convo for later for us is vft because that is likely to be where we have the most difference of opinion so far. i need to reread skitter's posts from today before i commit to that read as it was like 7:30am when i did initially, but i was very much a fan and her content is not all just centered around you.

[Kismet]

infinity is still hard town to me from body of work and this page even has good reasons for that on it:

513 is the sort of gut post i might make off 511 hoping to gutshot a town attitude. even more strong if l&g does turn out to be town.

[Kismet]

i don't really think that changes the overall theme of the point but thanks for clarifying

[Kismet]

i still like 511

[Kismet]

that’s not my point, my point is that you apparently had no problem with there not being an explanation tacked onto every read when nacho did it but when I did it needed to be pointed out

cause and effect. i don't care about whether the readlists have explanations inline, i was showing that i look at it and i don't have really any idea why most of those are where they are, because you haven't been doing anything that i see that is leading you to those conclusions.

that isn't how i feel about nacho, but let's also not make this about nacho, please. i'll sort nacho as the opportunity presents itself, i have vectors/reads to engage him on (as i now do for you as well, but your progression on me so far is the most suspect thing in that list so here we are), and i hate the "whataboutism" you're exhibiting with the assumption that i have no issues with what nacho is doing, something that i feel is not justifiably extracted from my play, as a vehicle to make my issues with you seem less reasonable.

[Kismet]

What are your current reads?

--bank it
Infinity

--looks good enough
vft
noddy

------- d2 pass threshold

-- conflicted, likely high level of variance w/ several rereads by me / events in game due to activity level
cakez
nacho

-- conflicted, unlikely to vary much unless activity level improves
l&g

-- major issues
dc



----------
---------- not on the same axis
-- no real read
not_mafia
mara
salsa
bulge


i obviously want to get more people above that line and at least out of the "no real read" group. I'm taking points on salsa under advisement - i've never experienced her as town before -- but i think what i said early applies - the bar is too low for me to feel comfortable with.

[Kismet]

You can finally see my towniness

felt good on reread.

but again, there's not much here.

[Kismet]

on some level that's akin to me telling ffery in warehouse 13 that she didn't have to worry about me that game

[Kismet]

Thanks!

Mena is always concerned with how people read him and I think it might actually be towny

on some level i think i need to responsibly outsource that read to you/skitter so if we get to a point where you're yelling at me that i'm wrong, i am listening.
but just so far i'm just waiting for something from mena other than mechanics talk or potshots at me based on what i think are pretty bad pretenses

[Kismet]

treating me with bad faith

(pseudo-olive-branch-mode-on)
I want to examine this in particular - can you just briefly explain what this clause in particular means to you? It struck a bit of a different chord than the other stuff

[Kismet]

567 hitting the right notes w/ me

[Kismet]

i do a lot better in the moment i think than going back to read things

you're not obligated to catch up on everything if playing in the moment is a better way for you to get reads / show your alignment

[Kismet]

Nacho also can you talk about what led you up to voting L&G? i know you remarked that they had some empty questioning early, but it looked like 347 had a couple points where you were leaning the other way (?) and i'm not sure what happened between that and your vote.

[Kismet]

but I think ydrasse is slightly +town in the last few pages

don't really agree so far, and trying not to be tunnely, but i think Ydrasse was dragged kicking and screaming into the "fun-zone" instead of wanting to be there organically and is exhibiting the most bare minimum levels of Ydrassity in order not to get speed elimed

[Kismet]

Yeah, meant to address that last night and never got to it, but my answer is pretty similar to skitter's:

Leafeon and Glaceon (beeboy, Mistyx hydra)
Salsabil Faria
Kismet
Infinity 324
Venus Fly Trap (skitter30, lilith2013 hydra)
notscience

it's probably the top two names here, but i think that can be inferred from the reads lists i've given so far (although maybe i'm getting some scum-designated-miselim vibes from the l&g wagon but i'm not confident enough in my reads yet to really go down that path). is there anything deeper you're trying to get at here to have posted the question in such a way?

[Kismet]

I think The Bulge is town

if there's anything that bothers me about bulge is that he's very obviously been reading but he's chosen to only engage about one thing in particular and that thing is an unflipped association (infinity/l&g) which i'm worried the grounds aren't particularly solid on.

I realize he has Qs for me about infinity which i should responsibly reexamine my read while answering, but that will probably come tonight.

[Kismet]

re: notscience. i think everything scum-ns does is typically just lacking a layer of temerity, even if it's sometimes analytic in nature, it doesn't break the barriers of someone being legitimately confident in engaging with the thread or its occupants.

685 i think solidly clears that bar for me. NS might be the only player on site i'd be so confident in here, but i just continue not to worry about him, even if he's not been omnipresent.

[Kismet]

I’ve gotta go pick up my glasses I might be around after

i hope so, i could use more of you this game

[Kismet]

I think a lot of my trepidation around nacho revolves around my history of scumreading him and him never ever being scum (still to this day don't recall a T-bork S-nacho table)

i'm basically trying to search in my heart of hearts to see if 458 comes from town and see if his incredulity is because i am not getting him there or if he's just pushing me away.

The point i was trying to make in the post at the beginning of that chain was that he goes in w/ cakez and makes a big deal about how he's going to make the game miserable for cakez if his attitude continues, which isn't a sentiment i expect from someone unsure of why cakez is doing what he's doing, and i don't know if nacho legitimately missed the point i was trying to make and thought i was saying "his push was unwarranted" or is just trying to be obtuse about it.

the thing that gives me pause is that nacho and i have interacted this way in the past, although admittedly not recently.

I just don't have a lot of confidence in my ability to read him overall.

[Kismet]

I don't think this is fair
He has engaged me on some things for one

maybe, although i don't think in any kind of real in-depth way.
my opportunism alarm is going off though.

[Kismet]

With some more rereading and reflection:

Nacho really started this kerfuffle w/ cakez w/ 289 after Cakez expressed a read that i would summarize as "I can't grasp a townie mindset to this trajectory, so i am inclined to scumread it" in 246 / 271 which i mean, obviously isn't what town nacho should want but really isn't aggressive or seemingly unwilling to be convinced especially considering how early in the game it happened.

295 is purely a reaction to 289

345 seems disingenuous when viewed in that light. Whereas if I were town and made 289, i wouldn't have expected anyone to take that lying down, no matter what their alignment is, and 295, while possibly unhelpful from a gamesolving standpoint, should be kinda expected and not deserving of the grandstanding against cakez that nacho did in 345

[Kismet]

i'm kind of a sucker for posts like 713 too

i at least don't recall any nuance to cakez demeanor in W13 like during his pooky scumread

like iso cakez in that game, there is literally no semblance of reevaluation to suggest that pooky might not be scum for literally any reason ever whereas already he seems to be thinking this through even without much pressure from others

[Kismet]

kinda think that the differences between 500 and 522 can *potentially* be explained w/ hydra dissonance.
i have no way of proving this but i think it weakens the argument that l&g v infinity is any kind of planned read switcheroo

[Kismet]

kinda think that the differences between 500 and 522 can *potentially* be explained w/ hydra dissonance.
i have no way of proving this but i think it weakens the argument that l&g v infinity is any kind of planned read switcheroo

EBWOP: 523, not 522

[Kismet]

i kinda agree w/ cakez; he was on the mislim list in illicit until he got cleared, but it was mostly activity related than bad content

[Kismet]

on phone but 744 745 aint doin it for me

[Kismet]

I meant about vft

[Kismet]

Why do you think i am incapable of coming around on you?

[Kismet]

Not that you're incapable. Just feels like a game where I'm getting mislynched or will be fighting for my life the entire game.

but that's...not what you just said

i don't know. i'm going away for a bit.

i'm still plooked and i don't know how to get unplooked.

i don't get the trying to win an argument vibe from skitter at all. she's very explanation-y and not very argue-y.

[Kismet]

When you mislynch me, just treat my reads as vengeful popcorn style.

why? you're fiip flopping all over the place (which is fine!) but i don't see a universe where you, being aware that you're doing that, also says "but also sheep this"

[Kismet]

noddy what are you looking for in particular atm?

[Kismet]

skitter is near lock to me at this point i can just feel tenet skitter breathing down our necks right now

p-edit: heh

[Kismet]

Open question, what’s my biggest weakness as town?

oh you're asking me to answer this

[Kismet]

nacho knocking over your noraa push?

[Kismet]

i think most players are at least a little weak to ate.

[Kismet]

i don't see a reasonable universe where he can push either me or you
he tried skitter and we didn't bite on it
he tried cakez - i'm not banking cakez yet but yeah

infinity is the only thing we need to re-eval but i still think town by play

[Kismet]

i've met nacho IRL on multiple occasions and he's a cool cat, so skitter i think you're reading that at least partially correctly.

[Kismet]

skitter all you get for 832 is me fucking fighting anybody who tries to kill you this game

[Kismet]

Bork do you think this setup incentivizes bussing or keeping your buddies alive

i go back to my at-bat analogy. if you get behind in the count but are sufficiently able to predict the moves the opponent is going to do long-term, you can get away with a win doing whatever you want.

in that sense it's not really that different than any other game; it just ends quicker.

the advantage scum over another setup is that they have more voice than normal.
the advantage town is, frankly, something i don't need to share right now because if scum isn't thinking about subverting that already then i don't need them to start.

[Kismet]

A certain someone owes me a catch-up wall

he really fuckin does

[Kismet]

(duh)

[Kismet]

updated reads here i guess:

noddy
vft

----

infinity

cakez

l&g

^ group is all subject to re-eval tomorrow (including infinity, and those are pretty separate tiers hence the spacing, but i am squicked enough by the people pushing l&g that i have lost any interest in that wagon)
infinity hasn't really moved much but a lot of other stuff has moved around infinity, including vft and noddy who are in my "haha no" bucket

----- d2 pass line

no-shows (salsa, nm, mara)

bulge

nacho
dc

[Kismet]

it's literally in the post

[Kismet]

VOTE: nacho

[Kismet]

youre forgetting someone in your townreads aha...

- ydra

kismet is also town

[Kismet]

ffery can be town too for those rockin' pagetops.

except that one above. that's mine.

[Kismet]

Bork I’m very glad we are finally both town together.

tenet didn't quite scratch that itch did it

[Kismet]

I'm glad that we're all town together too.
I'm sad that y'all won't see it until you kill me.

don't know what to say man
as usual if i'm wrong you have the requisite mea culpa, and i'll own the bad read.

[Kismet]

holding vft to the same level as notsci and infinity is also silly - yes vft is town but those two left their scumranges a long long time ago and skitter hasn't done anything that absurdly town

this post just seems designed to manipulate me. it serves no purpose other than to screw with me. you're basically saying "you're right, but you could be _super_ right and i'm gonna take this piss out of you for it"

[Kismet]

every post i make after accepting a day 1 mislynch will also be tinged with a small undertone of spite but i don't feel that's unreasonable for someone in my unique position

that is your prerogative if town, agreed.

[Kismet]

high info flips imo are a better way to play this setup than pure PoE, although obviously there is a balance here to try to find the right amount of % likelihood to be scum and useful interactions

I still believe what i said earlier: the not_mafias of this game can be ignored for now.

find people likely to be scum for play.

the town people not posting desperately need to make themselves known. i don't want to go into d3 with nobody dead but lurkfucks, regardless of what the score is.

[Kismet]

its why eliming hypothetical town!n_m day 1 is literally like the worst case scenario. scum just flips one of their own lurkers next and we're nowhere

[Kismet]

that said i don't mind shining light on mara atm

[Kismet]

I like Skitter's opening vote on me

i feel like you said the opposite in 118

[Kismet]

also i basically don't know what you're even doing right now

[Kismet]

That's all you got out of that wall?

did i say that? it stuck out at me as inconsistent w/ your previous positions

[Kismet]

just wondering what that vft wall was apropos of.

It almost seems to me like you think if you just over-effort you'll clear some kind of "ok he's town" bar.

I'd rather some others get in here and the high volumes can interact w the low volumes when they do.

[Kismet]

maybe that's unfair of me.

[Kismet]

you didn't say it, but i don't think it's an unfair assumption to make whenever i post a wall and someone reacts to exactly one thing.

i already agree that vft is town.

but again you lambasted me for having them in the top tier of reads along ns last night and then you come out with this basically glowing endorsement and i just don't know what to think other than this is just the WIFOM olympics at this point for later

[Kismet]

but again you lambasted me for having them in the top tier of reads along ns last night and then you come out with this basically glowing endorsement and i just don't know what to think other than this is just the WIFOM olympics at this point for later

eh i retract this. there's some mixed stuff in there.

[Kismet]

ok i went into that wall with the idea that you were going to talk them up for purposes of trying to confuse me later. rereading while on a call i missed the mark on the intent and i apologize. I don't mind what you're doing.

[Kismet]

bulge just looks utterly nothing like illicit bulge so far.

i'm not saying he's definitely scum for that, but he's not getting into the thick of it with anyone, or being cheeky, or, as infinity says, asking clarifying questions to establish context, which was an absolutely hallmark of his play in illicit.

just sterilized analysis

[Kismet]

honestly the more i reread it it just looks like a scumcatchup

none of the conclusions have really been given their due diligence. a lot of "hasn't really giving me a of alignment indicative stuff buuuuuuuut gonna let em slide" should read as town "hasn't really given a lot of alignment indicative stuff

and i'm fucking worried about it

" esp considering strength of townreads (not strong except for me maybe?)

don't know what the point on nacho is about being/not being part of the solve and i think if that were salient he'd have more to say about it in relation to his other reads.

The infinity points look a little obtuse, esp wrt 454 and 645

[Kismet]

i'm charitably reading not having anything bad to say about me as an endorsement

[Kismet]

also i feel like the beeboy stuff is overblown by everybody.

beeboy hasn't been really present on site in a bit, isn't active outside of this game right now, and there could be a fucking myriad of other reasons for that.

[Kismet]

read bulge catchup and tell me what you think please.

[Kismet]

i don't get why he does this as scum?

you don't?

it's to

not die

[Kismet]

this isn't a reason to scumread him, but to say you can't see the motivation behind it as scum seems daft

[Kismet]

Nacho I am at least extremely heartened by the fact that if you are town are reads are so close together that I don't have a huge issue sheeping the majority of what you have.

[Kismet]

i think infinity is town

i think nm actively avoiding creating content and catching zero heat for it makes him very likely scum

~leaf

I'm increasingly sympathetic to this take but still, not right this second

[Kismet]

I'm feeling naked after reading the 350 (I need to change my town/scum gameplay but really don't know how )

gutwise reads very good to me

anyway glad to have you back salsa

[Kismet]

skitter does mena have a history of kinda "taking his ball and going home" / getting really acerbic as scum at all? i kinda saw it early in 2181 as town before he got replaced.

I ask because p44 struck a better note tonally than a lot of his early game stuff and I guess I'm not entirely sure he gets like that as scum in a spot where he's a pretty universally weak scumread but not under a ton of active pressure

[Kismet]

Actually, kismet is town, your slot is kinda gross for your other head, cakez, salsa, leafy are all probably scum

what pings you about lilith in particular?

[Kismet]

Mena if you're town we're just like seeing the game completely topsy turvy and I want to figure out how we can get past that. I'm not claiming that I know everything here but I'm just having a lot of trouble getting to where you are based on what you've given out so far

[Kismet]

Why do you think nacho is scum?

there's a lot in my iso about this but to hit the high points:

1) the biggest issue was the early engage on cakez, which felt like a move designed to emotionally manipulate cakez rather than read him, and the level of "i'm fed up with your shit" didn't seem like a legitimate reaction to what cakez had actually done at that point
2) the VFT shift seemed completely out of left field and didn't seem like legitimate paranoia at the time for me, just "I reread one post from lilith and decided they're town now" and I personally didn't see why that post in particular got them from strong scum to weak town read.
(Incidentally you and nacho are both ignoring skitter to read lilith, but seem to have come to completely opposite conclusions. If she's really the easier to read one, uh, I'm not seeing it here. Skitter looks town.
3) I still hatehatehatehate 871, and I explain in 882 why
4) I guess I'm really wary of the AtE in 887+ as it just sounds like to me someone really trying to be upset but like not actually upset.


what it's explicitly NOT about is the engagement on not_mafia (as I mentioned in 117) during the early points of the game, which I found to be oblique but am not scumreading. There's a lot of room for philosophical differences about how to approach this game.

I'm certainly open to talking about why you think he's town at this point in the game.

Maybe asking me about shit in the first place might have been a good place to start

I feel like I spent the majority of the early game doing this rather than attacking, but like even if you're town and I'm completely wrong on you I'm not going to apologize for being wrong. This is what we do to solve the game.
I'm doing my best not to make this a toxic interaction. You're a good player and I want you to be town and I feel like you have the ability to show it if that's legitimately what you are.

[Kismet]

Bork the comparison to 2181, his stuff there was because he was mad he couldn’t sub in his main so I wouldn’t call it ai in a meta sense

when i typed that i specifically recalled (haven't double checked this) him and pooky like getting into it early in the game before any of that shit happened

[Kismet]

double checking i think that recollection was accurate, see posts surrounding: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12371254

[Kismet]

well it's the _other_ slot i felt bad about my interactions w/ in tenet.

i would welcome any meaningful contributions that you have about why nacho's town, as i am acknowledging the wide error bars that my reads on him generally have.

[Kismet]

also did you have any other significant reads as you were following along?

[Kismet]

like can someone give me a brief summary of why they're scumreading him?

i have one not a page prior to this

i was actually scumreading the hell out of kismet before he outed for reasons that are probably not good in hindsight

so you're comfortable enough w/ my meta to have shook that off?
either way can you indulge me on your early game read on me? because i think i had a lot of meaningful interaction w/ nacho early game and i want to know how your read on nacho fits into that

[Kismet]

it strikes me that a lot of the mental state i'm trying to get you to dredge up is a mental state you'd have had prior to receiving your role pm and therefore a terrible way to read you.

I'd actually just prefer if you told me what your reads currently are and why

[Kismet]

so you're comfortable enough w/ my meta to have shook that off?
either way can you indulge me on your early game read on me? because i think i had a lot of meaningful interaction w/ nacho early game and i want to know how your read on nacho fits into that

no lmao

i'm just choosing to defer that read to others because i don't think i have a clue

i hated your first post, after that the approach was, like, trying to come across as even handed but with words that were empty, in general i think defending n_m in this setup is +scum, first line of 117 felt pocket-y, and your vote on my slot is kind of not good reasons for a scumread even on page 5 (why is a badly phrased question scummy?)

really i'm trying to put a bunch of words here to what boils down to "gut"

thanks for answering. i'm going to give you room to get up to speed.

[Kismet]

fwiw, peta read me wrong up until his death in 2181 and was basically paranoid of my/ffery's slot (i think any mutual trust we'd established at that point had kind of broken down) in tenet up until his miselim, so if he'd have written me off here immediately on meta (which would be different than actually checking my meta and drawing a conclusion) i'd probably be in a worse spot here.

[Kismet]

nacho feeling like he's playing survivor and not mafia

[Kismet]

Bork beeboy lurked into a replace out in your game don’t you let up on the gas at all.

i'm aware, and that might be a legitimate flip conversation at this point, although i was hoping it wasn't and peta was going to come in here and town the fuck out of it. this game made a lot more since w/ that slot town than with it scum.

if nacho is scum he's just, probably since about page 30, trying to do his best to win via WIFOMing interactions with the rest of his team, and if he flips scum you better believe i'm going to ignore everything he's posted since that point.

[Kismet]

Bork he’s been half assed distancing for the last half of the day. How does this not make sense that nacho would bus a weaker buddy and try to coast on the towncred after the people who can argue him down are dead.

dueling scum wagons is just something i have a hard time accepting without a really good reason, and maybe that reason is scumteam of lurkfucks, but that was my initial pause on the l&d situation to begin with, and that my townreads were on nacho instead

(prism are you out there somewhere)

[Kismet]

i am leaving myself open to the possibility that i am massively wrong about shit, especially on the scum side of the spectrum.
because not doing that is generally what loses me games.

that said, I haven't seen anything that is convincing me that the way i'm viewing the game is wrong.
whereas in tenet peta tried to do this w/ me about spiffeh and i didn't listen
and skitter tried to do it multiple times about various people and i didn't listen

overall, I'm trying to take this one flip at a time, and yes, I think there's a lot of potential credence to what you're saying.

just trying not to ruin myself w/ hubris this time.

[Kismet]

(btw bork, love sentinels, nice alt. do you play the digital version at all?)

hell yeah, was hoping someone would get this ref, although it is indeed also my cat's name

CHARDIZZO on steam although i haven't played in a few years at this point

[Kismet]

you know what pisses me off nacho?

i post stuff like 868 which asserts that i don't want to be on l&g because my townreads are elsewhere and i'm unnerved by the people on the wagon

i actually think that's a pretty good reason to change a read, but you posted 873. fine whatever. agree to disagree philosophically maybe.

but then you post 1264 where you basically give up on what i feel is a very viable push on someone you scumread just because a player you like now occupies the slot despite the fact that he hasn't done shitall (and again have explicitly given me shit for not scumreading earlier in the game) and i again have no idea what you're doing except trying to screw with people

[Kismet]

Maybe scum is just letting it happen because they're chuckling at the carnival of lunacy currently dancing its way through the thread.

letting what happen? you getting miselimed and us rolling through the scumteam afterward because outside of you we essentially converged on who is scum?

do we still kill peta tomorrow if you flip town?

[Kismet]

failure to understand and failure to listen are two different things

UNVOTE:

We have a week and I'd like to reengage a lot of the playerlist (even Nacho) from a legitimately reset position. My feelings haven't really changed as of now.

Nacho I would like just kind of an updated list from you at this point if you would, esp wrt my 1271

I don't feel like I can reliably tell the difference between this being a scum alliance to save nacho and two people who are desperately trying to tell me that i am wrong.

[Kismet]

That makes me a sad panda

Have we not been over beeboy scum meta Bork

I would like to do this my way for the moment. A lot of games I've been in have been lost because I've not been pliable enough with my view of the game early on.

[Kismet]

despite the “townbloc” voting it.

ftfy

who are you actually scumreading in (me, noddy, infinity, vfp) rather than just saying haven't left their range yet

because I think it's important that if you think this bloc is doomed that you effectively illustrate why that is to those of us in it who are reading the game wrong

[Kismet]

I think he’s been very openly trying to manipulate us for most of the day

Noddy, I get it.

I'm trying to be a little more respectful to mena / peta here than i might be in another game, because if they're town, well, i'm basically doing what i was doing w/ skitter in tenet.

[Kismet]

I'm coming around at least a little on DC.

That's a lot of what is motivating my reassess here.

[Kismet]

For the record maras near 95% scum with that and her not voting nacho when she had a scumread there is sketchy

yeah, honestly i'm here too

[Kismet]

not sure why 'toxic' is hte right word here, or who exactly is pocketing me, but ok

based on his previous posts I assume he means that noddy is doing the pocketing

but like, no

[Kismet]

Vote: Momrangal

Knew it was too good to be true wrt Cakez. Is okay.

?

[Kismet]

I can wait.

[Kismet]

You say you realize you're tunnelling but you haven't showed any signs of reconsidering. Why are you so adamant against even talking about NM?

which reads in particular is he wrong on?

what is your current feeling about nacho?

[Kismet]

This makes no sense. Even if nacho is scum, town doesn't need a total scum wipe to win

this goes both ways - if nm is scum, he doesn't necessarily need to be flipped either.

I guess my Q is why do you think he's the mostly likely person out of the whole playerlist to flip scum right now?

that just seems a weird feeling for anyone to have about not_mafia in D1 of any game

[Kismet]

I think you're dropping you're read on venus hydra too early and pushing a town elimination especially if NM is scum Here.

i initially read this as you scumreading nacho but i think i just misinterpreted it at this point

[Kismet]

Pedit: that's a post to Nacho though?

yeah, sounded as if you were calling him out.

hence my agreement w/ noddy's 1398

i think your vote on n_m looks considerably better if that's not what's happening though

overall, yes, i get that a lot of shit is happening around nacho, but I'd like you to be a little clearer w/ what you mean there. Do you still scumread infinity and vft?

[Kismet]

re: hammering. Let's please pump the breaks. I want to hear peta's meta reasoning for nacho town in detail and I want nacho's updated reads before anything else happens.

I agree w/ infinity about nm - mara your premise only really works if hypothetical nm-partners go and see nacho's early pressure as a legitimate threat.

which i don't really think was ever the case for anyone

[Kismet]

The theory can easily be tested through a NM flip but nobody wants to even think about it

i'm just worried about the value proposition we get here if we're wrong. It's like the best gamestate possible for scum to flip town-nm on d1.

that said, his utter sandbagging, which i find more egregious than even usual, means we probably should flip him at some point

[Kismet]

like i feel like most people's opinions on n_m early game are likely philosophical in nature and therefore rather less likely than normal to be AI

or at least I am not a good enough reader to tell the difference

[Kismet]

I think “nacho clear if notmaf is scum” is literally the entire reason that it was done in the first place.

that strategy is less effective than normal due to the setup, imo.

[Kismet]

i am still interested in what you have to say.

[Kismet]

Do you think it's unlikely for town!cho to make the push to see reactions?

Not at all; and as I've said a couple times (117, 1212) it's not something i'm really reading him either way on.

do you think it's something _only_ town!cho would do? otherwise i don't understand your inquiry

[Kismet]

If town gave you an opening to remove one of the strongest town players and defend one of your own, you wouldn't take it? Its low risk high reward unless someone spotted it

i am having trouble w/ this explanation because it presupposes that nacho is town and nm is scum and this is the explanation behind it given you allow for those things. This is generally the problem I have with chainsawing arguments: they are inherently circular and cannot be really given that much credence until others in the equation flip.

After thinking about it I think I see what you're saying at least with VFT, and I think if nacho were to be town and nm were to be scum (and only at that point) this might get me to reconsider VFT, as I think 17 is something that fits the description of what you're talking about.

Even so I'm not sure I could get to VFT-scum from just that.

(But Nacho-town is going to get me to reset in a big way anyway.)

noddy/infinity i don't really feel like engaged in the way you are describing.

Noddy didn't really go after nacho until nacho voted him
infinity posted 99 which I think is a reasonable take

[Kismet]

I think we are reaching toward the denouement of day 1 where I go into fucking stupid paranoia land

I want the weirdness of peta/dc/nacho/vft to resolve itself.

VFT is mostly in that list due to Nacho interactions (that i may throw out if he flips scum) and also because i can't get anyone to express really a good read one way or the other and while that slot is 100% not for going anywhere near today (and in fact the hurt lillith stuff is contributing to my townread there) like there's a fuckton of people in this list w/ experience w that slot and I of all people have been its strongest defenders.

mom i could go either way on; her content isn't terrible there's just not much of it.

[Kismet]

also i don't have a great reason to townread cakez at this point he was just kinda ok midgame. I'm not thrilled with the exact manner of hop on nacho but i can see town-him sheeping here i guess. meh.

[Kismet]

legit probably like salsa at this point so there's that.

[Kismet]

i think my main point here is i want someone awesome to take the wheel that i can rely upon

because if it's just me: i will find a way to fuck this up. i promise.

[Kismet]

the more i reread mara the less interested i am in that flip

she's paranoid and pointing that paranoia at seemingly everyone