Newbie 2062: The Hubble Telescope - End!

[Demainer]

Ivy is scum, I know it.

VOTE: Ivyeo

[Demainer]

Why do you think my vote is rvs?

[Demainer]

Alright FFery who is my teamate, make sure not to fall for their trick and actually be last to double bluff them
Oh no! meant to send that in scumchat, guess we're outed :c

Do you really have to ask me what I don't like about this? That reaction feels weird to me lmao "oh.. haha yeah, I'm totally not scum"

idk, I'll have to see how it compares to future stuff said

This, and her first post. Town has nothing to hide, nothing to fear, why add an unnecessary /s to make sure no one misinterprets the post?

Admittedly, it's not much to go on, but this is something I'm much more certain about than anything else so far.

[Demainer]

Ivy is lean town for me if Demainer is scum. Other than that, I'm not sure about Ivy.

So apart from fossing everyone, do you have anything real to offer?

[Demainer]

This, and her first post. Town has nothing to hide, nothing to fear, why add an unnecessary /s to make sure no one misinterprets the post?

You're not the first person who has said this. This applies even to real life privacy vs surveillance issues.

The mentality is wrong. If you are innocent, you still should fear appearing guilty, especially in a gane like mafia. Going "I'm innocent haha if you got an issue vote me and find out bitches!" Is not really appropriate for town to have.

Imagine the most skilled player of mafia possible, are they equally careful to towntell as either alignment or only careful as scum?

The answer is equal.

What does privacy and surveillance have anything to do with fm?

Self-conscious posting is def ai, weird analogies are not going to change that.

[Demainer]

The "most skilled player" argument is meaningless, if a perfect player ever existed, everything would be nai for that person. The whole reason why we're here is because no one is perfect, I have no idea why this is even being raised as a defense.

[Demainer]

VOTE: Clasko
It's impossible to be Pr twice in a row
/s

Also, I skipped over this, how dare you >:c
c;

I understood that reference lol

/giggle

[Demainer]

64 was not good

I'm getting villagery feels from the same post.

[Demainer]

It feels like a genuine list of reads, not forced at all.

orctin's reaction to rat also feels villagery to me.

[Demainer]

Town:RM
Lean town: Rathe, Ivy
Null: Clasko
Lean scum: orctin, Andante
Scum: Dem

Are you going to explain your sr on me, or are you just going to vomit reads without doing anything?

[Demainer]

Ivy is lean town for me if Demainer is scum. Other than that, I'm not sure about Ivy.

Town:RM
Lean town: Rathe, Ivy
Null: Clasko
Lean scum: orctin, Andante
Scum: Dem

Some questions for you, T3:

1. Why do you townread Ivy? You say "if Demainer is scum" but I don't see the correlation.
2. Where does JacksonVirgo place?

What do you think of jack and t3?

[Demainer]

Interesting start to the game and quite an active day 1 but i think a lot of that came from Rational's stirring.

Honestly right now the most questionable on seems to be T3
Andante got caught up by Rational's early post so not really sure there
Ivyeo seems to be active but basically making simple post to appear participating with town without doing much to offend
Rathe - Similar - to Ivyeo
Jack - hasn't posted much except early
Clasko - good cover for that scum laying low but probably town
Demainer - still never explained that Ivy is scum vote post

If i was to guess - one of Rathe-Jack-Clasko-Ivy is scum
the other is with the rest of us (present company excluded)

I've already thoroughly explained my position on ivy, she's posting exactly like her scum game last time. "I've been reading the thread", "I'm busy", "I've been rereading", and not posting anything of substance at all. It's a self-conscious play at this point.

[Demainer]

andante's post makes me feel good, their reads so far mostly align with my position as well, with the exception of ivy.

[Demainer]

clasko's posting doesn't give me good vibes at all, in the last game he was quick to move the game forward with prelim leans and reads, his iso so far is a lot weaker.

[Demainer]

VOTE: Clasko
It's impossible to be Pr twice in a row
/s

Also, I skipped over this, how dare you >:c
c;

I think this is a subtle reference to the previous game (read ivy's iso).

[Demainer]

i dont know u n demainer seem to know better about him

My only reference point is the last game where I played with clasko and ivy (2060), if you go through both their isos in that game, then you'll know just as much about them as I do now.

[Demainer]

ivy's noncommittal posting so far almost exactly mirrors her deliberate attempt not to say anything in the last game, knowing that everyone will tr her anyway. ivy's scum

[Demainer]

What do you think of jack and t3?

I'm naturally aware of SE's, but I think JV's posting thoughts that aren't just 'gut', and he could have let RM's town read on him slide, but he instead challenged it which looks good in my eyes. I feel scum are more likely to accept the read. Town lean.

T3, I was initially happy with - I got good feels from him going through the 2060 to get a feel for how you post, but he isn't responding well to pressure rn. I'm in a similar boat to RM in that I would like him to explain his reads.
For the record I don't mind he hard-reads someone this early. His reasoning was a bit iffy but at least he commited to it and I know where he stands, on the face of it. Null.

This and the previous post in response to andante feel slightly forced, but I largely agree with the reads.

What makes me uncomfortable is that it seems like everyone is gravitating towards consensus reads when it's still very early in the game, which is not giving me good vibes at all.

[Demainer]

Demainer is a strong meta scumread. Rational coming in with reads and contributing feels like town, I would see early scum as more cautious plus the reaction to the mason thing.
Rathe feels like town thought streaming. Ivy is mainly a lean town because of the Demainer interaction.
orctin almost feels like he is posting just for the sake of posting. Andante has had a terrible reaction to the pressure put on her.

Please, based on the one game I've played here where I was a villager, eli5 how you have a strong meta sr on me. My brain is not big enough to handle this.

[Demainer]

I'm getting a town lean on rational after isoing him. His posts have been consistent, and he's fleshed out thought process quite clearly which gives me the feeling he's here to figure things out instead of forcing things on people. It could be a strong scumplay, but the sheer volume of his posts and the tone is giving me town feels.

[Demainer]

In fact, I think rational is my strongest town lean atm.

[Demainer]

Honestly Day 1 is always a Crapshoot - and odds are against town with any day 1 vote cause it's just to easy to basically have 2 townies facing off against each other which i am starting to wonder if that's what is happening with Rational and Andante. At which case then need to think about who's really egging the two sides on - there's your scummie

I would need to read back to look that way at the last few pages, as busy at work so do it later, but i would suspect your best scum target isn't one of them, but someone on the side wanting to keep attention there.

Vote: NoVote

I don't like this post. orctin is pushing the newbie angle really hard here, "d1 always a crapshoot", "2 townies facing off against each other", there's no progression compared to his insinuation in the previous post that one of andante/rational is scum, and he doesn't even attempt to explain his change in reads. Feels pockety and fillery.

[Demainer]

Reading rathe's posts feels like saudade all over again. I want to say lean town, but this has to be null for me.

[Demainer]

i am starting to think u r maybe town rational but i dont know rly

I'm interested in this read. Why do you think rational is town?

[Demainer]

ivy can try preserving her universal tr status by not posting anything just like last time, but I'm not fooled.

[Demainer]

ivy can try preserving her universal tr status by not posting anything just like last time, but I'm not fooled.

Knowing Ivy's scum game, is it really likely she repeats it, knowing we're both in the game this time around? I think anyone with a grasp of mafia wouldn't do this.

There's an element of truth in this, but ivy has already shown her ability to subvert "traditional" mafia play.

Everyone was saying literally the same thing last time, "there's no way scum ivy can be playing like this", twtbaw. They were wrong.

[Demainer]

289 gives me good vibes. There's quite a few things to like about this post, especially the depth of analysis that was missing in her previous game as scum. It's not strongly ai, since it could simply be an attempt to improve her scum game, but some of the reads in that post don't feel forced like her reads last time, where she was clearly pushing an agenda with a defined conclusion.

[Demainer]

UNVOTE:

[Demainer]

whatever, I'm claiming, I'm the doctor, I'm literally dead tonight, so go find scum. thanks. I'm actually getting annoyed by the nonstop pushing on me from you

Umm why?

[Demainer]

andante is reading slightly town to me, so I may be biased in this analysis. I'm inclined to believe her claim.

9 possible setups here:

Roleblocker - Cop/Doctor, Jailkeeper/Tracker, Mason/Mason
Rolecop - Tracker/Friendly Neighbor, Jailkeeper/Friendly Neighbor, Tracker/Doctor
Goon - Cop, Jailkeeper, Mason/Mason

The only roles that interact with Doctor are Cop (Roleblocker) and Tracker (Rolecop). Jailkeeper, Mason, Friendly Neighbor all don't interact with Doctor.

Roleblocker - Jailkeeper/Tracker, Mason/Mason
Rolecop - Tracker/Friendly Neighbor, Jailkeeper/Friendly Neighbor
Goon - Jailkeeper, Mason/Mason

On top of that, there's 2 setups involving a real Doctor: Cop/Doctor, Tracker/Doctor.

So, in 8 out of 9 setups, a fake Doctor claim will result in a cc, which leads to the fake claimer being elimed.

andante was nowhere near being elimed at this point, she was not universally sred, so the only reason for a fake claim is a gambit.

But it's also unlikely that scum would fake claim Doctor to goad the real power roles to out themselves as a d1 gambit, because in 4/8 situations where Doctor will be countered, the pr cc comes from a Mason or a Friendly Neighbor, which are hardly of any use to identify.

Roleblocker - Mason/Mason
Rolecop - Tracker/Friendly Neighbor, Jailkeeper/Friendly Neighbor
Goon - Mason/Mason

Outing the Mason is pointless, because scum need to bring the game to lylo to have a chance at faking Mason, which means before lylo is reached, as long as the other Mason claims, they immediately become conftown. Friendly Neighbor is not a meaningful role to out either, since in both cases where the role is outed, there is another pr more powerful than Friendly Neighbor in play (in the Jailkeeper's case, the Friendly Neighbor can avoid nk). So, this is not likely either.

In 2/8 situations, a Doctor fake claim will lead to the real Doctor cc, which is very useful for scum.

In 2/8 situations, the fake claim will lead to a Jailkeeper cc, which is useful for scum, but also incredibly dangerous. The remaining scum could be blocked at night before the scumteam have a chance to take out the Jailkeeper, leading to a complete rout.

So, claiming Doctor to just out a pr is not helpful at all, definitely not at the cost of losing scum. Only 2/8 scenarios definitively benefit scum here.

If scum were at a point where they needed to fake a pr, and did it as a gambit, there are better options. Claiming Friendly Neighbor would be better, because it only results in a cc 7/9 of the time, and 3/7 of the time the cc involves Cop or Doctor, both of which are amazing roles for scum to identify, as opposed to Jailkeeper or Mason or Friendly Neighbor. Claiming Tracker would be good as well, because only 7/9 situations result in cc, and 2/7 involve Cop claim, which is good, and further 3/7 involve Tracker, which is also good. Tracker and Friendly Neighbor make much more sense for a scum fake claim, compared to Doctor.

I don't see scum losing one of its own on d1 for the sake of it, it makes it much harder, for no probable benefit.

[Demainer]

Jammer Andante. Andante should townread how hard I am ohshing and offering to vote me off tomorrow. As Scum I'd want to night kill her, even if Cop would catch me it's safer to force Cop not to investigate outside me and potentially have a win D2.

I am telling you this. If Andante flips Doc, you vote me Day 2.

I'm still convinced that you're town, and I strongly urge you to rethink this. Even disregarding my town lean on andante, just think whether rational scum would fake claim doctor. It's not likely at all, could be a possible play if we have a newbie/newbie scumteam, but andante was nowhere near the pressure needed to claim. Scum are laughing their asses off right now at this shitshow, and watching this on the sidelines and pretending like nothing's happening.

VOTE: orctin

[Demainer]

I need to amend the analysis a bit, since scum can narrow down setup possibilities to 3 instead of 9.

If scum have a roleblocker, then fake claiming friendly neighbor reduces the chance of cc to 2/3. 1/2 cc scenarios involve cop/doctor cc. Cop claim is not good because doctor is in play, so scum can't kill cop anyway. Doctor claim is good. The other scenario involves mason, which is not good. So, only one part of one scenario leads to a good result gambit-wise. Claiming doctor will lead to cc 3/3, meaning it's a suicide mission. 1/3 scenarios involve doctor cc, which is good. 1/3 leads to jailkeeper cc, which is meh. 1/3 leads to mason, which is not good. So, 1/3 scenarios make sense gambit-wise. Overall, friendly neighbor makes the most sense for a fake claim here, unless scumteam adamantly want to make it a gambit, which is not useful at all in either case.

If scum have a rolecop, then fake claiming tracker leads to 2/3 chance of cc. Both scenarios involve tracker cc, which is good for scum. Claiming doctor leads to cc 3/3, and 1/3 involve doctor cc. 2/3 leads to friendly neighbor. Not good, whether it's for hiding, or for a gambit.

If scum have goon-goon, then faking either friendly neighbor or tracker will lead to 2/3 chance of cc, 1/2 from cop, 1/2 from mason. So, not good, but also not too bad from a gambit standpoint. Claiming doctor is suicide, 3/3 chance of cc, 1/3 from cop, 1/3 from jailkeeper, 1/3 from mason. Not good at all.

So, claiming doctor only slightly makes sense if scum want to go for a risky gambit play, and have a roleblocker. If scum have rolecop or goon/goon, then faking doctor makes no sense at all, unless they have no idea what they're doing.

[Demainer]

If orctin is v/la, then

VOTE: clasko

[Demainer]

Andante as scum would absolutely have motive to fake their role as an important PR there, especially the defensive one.

This is insane. If a scum dies D1, scum almost always loses. Why would they risk this instead of using it as a last-resort when pushed to E-1.


Honest question

ok yes

[Demainer]

From her perspective this is completely optimal to do as scum. She is running an extreme gambit here, hoping because she CCs before she's E-1 it makes her claimore believable.

please check my post, it's not optimal at all

[Demainer]

You can't be this stupid, seriously

y would a doctor ever claim

i agree, town doc should never claim in that situation, but scum fakeclaim is even less likely because there's better fakes out there.

[Demainer]

we definitely have at least 1 scum in clasko t3 orc ivy.

[Demainer]

i don't think insisting on voting out the doc alone is ai, just like claiming doc doesn't make much sense in that situation whether it's real or fake. in fact, it would make more sense for scum to avoid elimming the doc for town cred.

it might be slightly scummier because rational was leading the way for the most part, so scum wouldn't have to openwolf alone. i can easily see t3 and rathe blaming rational tomorrow for misleading them, then forcing another miselim.

but i don't think both of them are scum. which is why we definitely have 1 scum in the quiet players.

[Demainer]

rathe is hard to read. still null on him. some of the points he made were a bit disingenuous, it's clear that they're wrong, but he still pushes them. but again, i don't see this as ai, since scum se wouldn't want to deliberately make themselves look bad either. suboptimal plays are nai.

t3 is the scummier of the two, he hasn't made any real attempt at pushing things, and comes off as a bit fake. i did like his push earlier, scum would probably have been much more cautious, and simply have sit on the sidelines instead of actively shitstirring. but his position on the doc claim, while he's offered one at least, does not give me town vibes.

if there was a scum in rathe/t3, i would lean towards t3.

[Demainer]

From her perspective this is completely optimal to do as scum. She is running an extreme gambit here, hoping because she CCs before she's E-1 it makes her claimore believable.

please check my post, it's not optimal at all

It is if she thinks she's being voted off anyway and doesn't care to towntell and risk her partner going down first.

which she was not. she could be, but it's not likely at all.

[Demainer]

i can see two newbies getting scared and immediately fakeclaiming in a panic. possible? yes. likely? no.

which is why, if we have a cc available, please claim.

as explained above, a fake doctor claim must involve a cc in all 9 scenarios, so if there is one, the pr must claim.

[Demainer]

it outs the setup for scum, not the prs. they still need to hunt for pr

[Demainer]

If there's no CC O guess it's 2-goon setup and she hit the jackpot with Town's response.

As explained earlier, Goon/Goon means doctor will be cced in every possible situation. They know this. The only possibility where the scumteam decides to fakeclaim doc is if we have a newbie/newbie scumteam that panicked early on with the constant pushing, and is trying to get out of the current situation with an early bus. Which means the most likely partner is probably also either rathe or rational. rational wouldn't make sense because he was the one who created this entire situation in the first place, necessitating the doc claim, which leaves rathe. rathe wouldn't make sense either because an se would know better than to tell their scummate to fakeclaim when it's not even close to e-1. So, on this alone, andante can't possibly be faking it, since no one has partner equity with andante if she's faking it.

[Demainer]

2-goon setup is 2/3 probability of nobody CCing Doc eben when demanded to... It's perfect fakeclaim.

can you expand on this?

i really can't understand the point you're trying to make here.

[Demainer]

T3-Rathe-Jackson-Andante-Rational

The 2 scummies are most likely of these 5

The Doc claim - I can understand it from both sides, Andante seems to a person who doesn't do a lot of arguing in the way this day has gone, and i see a point of frustration for her (and sadly this is why a lot of new people dont stick with mafia cause these types or arguments happen a lot, and are part of the game) - Taking this into consideration - if my read on Andante is correct - then even as scum i dont think she would fake claim doctor, she would just say "fuck it, i'm scum, eliminate me so i get having to deal with rational" - So i actually think she's telling the truth - If she's not then she made a hell of a play for someone that "appears frustrated easy"

I would love to eliminate Rational - just cause i disapprove of the playstyle, you can be argumentative and aggressive, but he takes it to a whole nother level it seems, that's why i original voted for him, cause this is more a bully playstyle than anything - sorry but just my thoughts. But does that make him scum, I'm still unsure of him cause he totally could be.

T3-Rathe-Jackson - so i need to look at these 3 - right now i'm betting there is a scum in here - and might be the better play - we eliminate one of them - scum can decide to eliminate Rational tonight just to make the game thread less aggressive (and we probably would all shoot him if we could, lets be honest) - and we carry on the next day

This reasoning is really weird, why would you base our elim today on who scum will kill tonight? Not town at all.

[Demainer]

Reading back Rathe's immediate vote on Andante after her Doctor claim is concerning - i think at this point even if Rathe isn't eliminated Day 1 scum will have hard time not night killing them the coming night - it was too quick a reaction to not do so, which if true would make Andante scum. It's the only logic to Rathe's quick vote i can see.

I mean even a scum player should have a pause to the claim instead of the quick vote.

Lampshading to the max, you know you slipped in the previous post, and now you're covering it up by doubling down.

[Demainer]

VOTE: orctin

[Demainer]

Hardleaning scum on orc now, he enjoys the chaos in the thread and is simply fueling the flames. Entire iso is just nonstop fossing everyone and constantly changing positions, the reasoning is forced and directed more by the conclusions rather than actual logic. He quite literally insinuated that one of andante/rational was scum when that was convenient, then immediately in the next post, changes tack and says both of them are town and anyone "egging them on" is scum. His latest reads change has absolutely no progression, they are all based more on the thread environment than actual thoughts, there's no real attempt to make sense of the game.

[Demainer]

orc, what do you think of ivy, rathe, claskoslot

[Demainer]

Yes.

Anyway, let's see where this goes then.
VOTE: T3

@T3

full reads?

Town: Andante
Lean town: JV, VFP, Demainer
Null: orctin
Lean scum: Rational, Ivy
Scum: Rathe

You spent the entire day saying I'm scum based on meta, and now I'm lean town?

[Demainer]

orc, what do you think of ivy, rathe, claskoslot

I dont understand his vote on Andante - i noted that a little earlier - he made an almost immediate reaction vote to the Doc claim - as if he knows something but wont say what and will most likely get killed tonight to bury whatever it is - the way he voted makes me second guess Andante's alignment - To me he just needs to come out with a proper reason for that vote - explain whats' up and lets deal with it - i understand the game here everyone whats to keep hidden what they are to not allow scum to find the pr's but i think that cat's out of the bag now to be honest.

Ivy - she's cute but minimal post/play it seems to me

Clasko/VFP - VFP just joined - he's making a good catchup attempt to get into the game as he just replaced a player so i cant really fault him for anything yet - needs more time

It's to early for me to decide where to put Ivy and VFP at this time - I would lean to waiting for some deaths and starting to put the pieces together better once we actually have more information and something to look at - their play today, Votes, and who flips what will help provide that.

These reads don't feel genuine to me at all, you started the game headstrong with much more confident reads and pushing players you thought were scum, but now the chaos earlier in the day has subsided, you're all over the place. Your case on t3 is artificial, you haven't made any attempt at pushing them despite them being your strongest sr, enough for a vote, and all you've done is jumped on the wagon without doing anything more while you're on it.

If you really thought t3 was scum, you'd be pushing them much harder right now.

[Demainer]

@Demainer

T3 read?

t3 leaned town to me at sod, they were willing to speak their mind to the point of antagonizing other players (including myself), which I don't see coming from newbie scum. When others pointed out they were acting scum, they didn't back down in the thread and continued to post the same way, which is a strong town indicator to me. Newbie scum would just hide and make themselves more agreeable when confronted (similar to what orc is doing now, after a big entrance).

But his play has fallen a bit since andante's claim, he's been sheeping for the most part and the progressions in some of his reads are weak. So ironically, I'm scumleaning him for similar reasons to why I townleaned him in the first place, but this is mostly because the thread has changed, and t3's response does not give me town vibes. I don't see the aggressive t3 that I liked back at sod. Still townleaning him for the most part, but very close to null.

[Demainer]

Demainer, i didnt jump the wagon, i started it if you check the votes. If he flips turn, ill be the first person everyone blames. And took him till 4 votes up to try to fight against it.

But i do love how your distraction from t3 is to come after me.

This reads like you already know t3 will flip town.

You may have been the first to vote up t3, but you weren't the first to fos him, which is the main point here. You rehashed the same things everyone had already said earlier in the thread, and slapped a vote on it.