Micro 1010: Divide and Conquer: Round 2 - Game Over!

[Vanderscamp]

FIRST

[Vanderscamp]

I don't think Ole Gunnar Weebskjær would voluntarily put himself in a neighbourhood with me

Why?

[Vanderscamp]

Ok, i'm on a keyboard finally.
So my first nuanced thought is that it would be weird for Bingle to put himself in the 3P hood as scum when he was put in it as town in the last game and saw how bad it went for Skitter. I feel like Bingle would see himself as a much better player than me or N_M so for him to put himself in there seems really bold. N_M however, might feasibly do it for the memes.
But whatever i think we should eliminate in the 6P hood. Because then we can win in day 1 just like the last time Divide and Conquered was hosted.

I still maintain that it's marginally better to kill into the small pool first, but more important is just to vote the person we think is most likely scum.

But it's imo definitely wrong to want to prefer killing into the big pool, we will win just as easily by killing the scummiest player in the big pool and being right on D4 as we will on D1.

[Vanderscamp]

My gut reaction to this set up, is that it makes more sense to eliminate from the 3 person neighborhood, unless someone from the 6 person neighborhood really stands out as a scum read.

We did the math last game on killing into the different pools and there was something like a 4% increase in win rate by going small pool first, practically I think it is even better because it ensures one mafia dead at some point in the game, which I think is a lot more valuable than the zero value that an assumption of random killing attributes to it.

But last game the scummiest person was the scum in the big pool and we just killed them D1 for an easy game.

[Vanderscamp]

I am curious why some people are suggesting to vote from the 6 person neighborhood instead? Is it just for the chance at a Day 1 endgame win? Or am I missing some other benefit to voting there.

In the previous generation of the game that ran on this site (Which i was in),
scum argued for the very same and it was the one in the 6p hood doing it. We eventually eliminated him and we won the game on D1 because everyone towned it up in the game hard while he couldn't keep up, but even though he was scum, what he said was correct.

I'd say it was more that he scummed it up pretty hard!

[Vanderscamp]

Tinfoil theory, Bingle knows i absolutely hate N_M's guts and therefore put is in the same hood so we would destroy each other.

How serious is this comment?
Is it actually a well-known thing that you hate him?

[Vanderscamp]

I think I believe the stuff Norwegian is saying about what he would do as scum regarding the hoods

[Vanderscamp]

I have reconsidered, and I think I am on now leaning towards voting from within the 6 player neighborhood now.

I think I have come to the conclusion that shooting in the 6p neighborhood is better even if we miss Day 1

If we hit the 6p mafia:
Day 1 - Town wins automatically
Day 2 - Town gains 2 confirmed town for Day 3

If we hit the 3p mafia
Day 1 - Town gains 1 Confirmed town for Day 2
Day 2 - Town gains nothing

There is just a much higher reward for hunting within the 6p Mafia

I think that the mafia put Norwee+N_M in the 3 person group because they knew it would lead to conflict, and put a lot of noise in the thread. And that strategy appears to be paying off, because they are doing exactly that. But that still leaves the question of whether you did it, and the 2 town players are falling for it, or if one of them did it as scum, and is egging on the other.

I am a little surprised at the amount of posts coming form Not_Mafia, in my expereince with him he has been a lot more sparse. In our last game he made 63 posts spread out over 30 days, and then in this game he is at 29 posts in like 6 hours, and that was also a game that had both Norwee and Not_Mafia in it...

So I am a bit suspicious that this is that "one of them did it as scum, and is egging on the other"

So of the three of you, I think it might actually be Not_Mafia... but he is such a hard person to read, by design, and it seems like his reputation has resulted in him almost having a site wide immunity from Day 1 eliminations.

So I am kind of glad we are not voting in the 3 player neighborhood today.

I really dislike the last line (and not just because I dislike the notion of refusing to vote into the 3p pool)

I also think n_m is the scummiest person in the small pool so far for a pretty similar reason, I'm pretty sure he's posted more times so far this game than in the entire game we just played together, and if I thought he was tabled from contention today I would be very far from kind of glad about it.

[Vanderscamp]

I have reconsidered, and I think I am on now leaning towards voting from within the 6 player neighborhood now.

I think I have come to the conclusion that shooting in the 6p neighborhood is better even if we miss Day 1

If we hit the 6p mafia:
Day 1 - Town wins automatically
Day 2 - Town gains 2 confirmed town for Day 3

If we hit the 3p mafia
Day 1 - Town gains 1 Confirmed town for Day 2
Day 2 - Town gains nothing

There is just a much higher reward for hunting within the 6p Mafia

If we vote wrong the mafia kill likely lands in the group of 6, making it easier to figure out

I actually agree that getting out the 3-person hood mafia today makes the game harder than miseliming in the 6 person hood

Going to try to not respond to every single one of these but this stance is absurd

[Vanderscamp]

VOTE: Vanderscamp

I see you were online after the game started, come play

Sorry, was at work, freeish for the next several hours.

[Vanderscamp]

VOTE: not_mafia

I have lukewarm leaning scum and Norwegian leaning town.

[Vanderscamp]

I have reconsidered, and I think I am on now leaning towards voting from within the 6 player neighborhood now.

I think I have come to the conclusion that shooting in the 6p neighborhood is better even if we miss Day 1

If we hit the 6p mafia:
Day 1 - Town wins automatically
Day 2 - Town gains 2 confirmed town for Day 3

If we hit the 3p mafia
Day 1 - Town gains 1 Confirmed town for Day 2
Day 2 - Town gains nothing

There is just a much higher reward for hunting within the 6p Mafia

If we vote wrong the mafia kill likely lands in the group of 6, making it easier to figure out

I actually agree that getting out the 3-person hood mafia today makes the game harder than miseliming in the 6 person hood

Going to try to not respond to every single one of these but this stance is absurd

Why?

Because miskilling D1 almost always does not make the game easier than killing correctly.

I think the point you are trying to make is that killing into the big pool first, missing, and getting another NK in there makes solving that pool easier, but I don't think that is close to worth the value of not having to solve the small pool first.
The small pool scum is NOT someone we can just freely guarantee being able to kill if we kill aggressively into the big pool and do badly.

[Vanderscamp]

My gut reaction to this set up, is that it makes more sense to eliminate from the 3 person neighborhood, unless someone from the 6 person neighborhood really stands out as a scum read.

We did the math last game on killing into the different pools and there was something like a 4% increase in win rate by going small pool first, practically I think it is even better because it ensures one mafia dead at some point in the game, which I think is a lot more valuable than the zero value that an assumption of random killing attributes to it.

But last game the scummiest person was the scum in the big pool and we just killed them D1 for an easy game.

So I looked back at the last game.

It is interesting that you site back that the math was done in the last game, without acknowledging that Bingle was the one that did the math, and that he was town that game, and that he also concluded that it was still better to shoot in the 6P pool.

I have been informed by a monkey that I should treat Bingle's mechanical talk as gospel, regardless of his alignment, but here I can clearly see that ConfirmedTown Bingle made the case that shooting from the 6P pool first is the better strategy.

IIRC Bingle did some initial math which was very wrong, I went back and corrected the math and we both agreed that the correct numbers were something along the lines of 41% town win rate vs 45% town win rate by killing into big pool first and little pool first respectively.
From a math standpoint it's definitely better to kill into the small pool first, bingle and some other people made some arguments about why killing into the big pool first was better that I don't agree with since I think they mostly make assumptions about things being good that are actually neutral.

I don't mind killing into the big pool first if the scummiest person in the game is there but I will advocate very strongly for not avoiding killing into the small pool today just because it is the small pool.

[Vanderscamp]

I also think n_m is the scummiest person in the small pool so far for a pretty similar reason, I'm pretty sure he's posted more times so far this game than in the entire game we just played together, and if I thought he was tabled from contention today I would be very far from kind of glad about it.

I have lukewarm leaning scum and Norwegian leaning town.

do u have any fresh takes

No, I think this game has been fairly boring so far

[Vanderscamp]

I really dislike the last line (and not just because I dislike the notion of refusing to vote into the 3p pool)

I also think n_m is the scummiest person in the small pool so far for a pretty similar reason, I'm pretty sure he's posted more times so far this game than in the entire game we just played together, and if I thought he was tabled from contention today I would be very far from kind of glad about it.

can you be explicit/clarify for me your thought process here:

are you saying that you think Lukewarm is scum with N_M, and is cheekily using the "vote in the 6pool" logic to distance from his buddy while claiming he's glad he doesn't actually have to vote there? Do you really think that's a likely comment to come from scum!Lukewarm paired with scum!N_M - I think scum are usually pretty self-conscious about talking about their buddy, I generally don't think they're likely to say "I'm glad I don't have to vote there today". If he's going to distance from his buddy, why would he not take a more strong stance? what scum agenda did his post actually serve here?

I find the alternate explanation - that town!Lukewarm feels N_M is a hard slot to effectively sort and is somewhat relieved he doesn't have to correctly evaluate him today - to be a lot more natural and likely. It kinda feels to me like you found a convenient reason to shade Lukewarm ("he says he's 'kind of glad' he might not vote his scumread, that doesn't sound like a townie thing to say!!") rather than you're actually thinking about how and whether his posts indicate his alignment. Not to mention the odds of a NM/Lukewarm team are generally low in a vacuum, so tying them together in this way is always going to be specious reasoning.

My scum read on lukewarm isn't dependent on n_m's alignment, I read it as scummy regardless of whether or not n_m is scum.
I think if anything it's less likely that they are together from what lukewarm said, because I agree it would be fairly obvious, but I don't feel as strongly about the associative reads from that.

[Vanderscamp]

as an addendum to the above, I could vibe with your sentiment more if you are saying the comment from Lukewarm is scummy in the town!N_M world. But given that you're voting NM and claimed him as your strongest scumread, I don't see how that comment from Lukewarm pings you as partner-y. I would think it's better evidence for potential T-S alignment than shared S-S alignment.

Me independently reading n_m as scummy won't make me change my reads on other players in the thread because of that, it's very possible I'm wrong on n_m.

[Vanderscamp]

oh lmao you're right, I read that the setup was Mountainous and assumed that meant no NKs for some reason

fully disregard that point then

@N_M do you think this is a staged towntell or genuine?

I know you're not asking me but I think this is fairly likely to be genuine, but also possible to be coming from a scum who genuinely didn't realize this.

[Vanderscamp]

VOTE: Marcistar
This feels the most likely to be scum cumulatively when looking at both worlds.

i agree

explain please.. what makes me most likely

Why do you agree?

[Vanderscamp]

Oh and "not really townie" is a fancy shorthand way of saying that literally nothing you’ve said is something i think you couldn’t say as scum.

oh smhsmh u shouldve just said that.
lmk if u want me to vote myself

tbh im just waiting for juicier gossip

VOTE: marcistar

This is very awkward

[Vanderscamp]

I’m extremely bad at reading Dunnstral. If you can explain how he thinks and plays as scum, and why he wouldn’t be bold like that, feel free to enlighten me.

Dunn likes to low effort as both alignments ime. Calling out a partner as sus while voting one of the other people in the pool is something that is going to inevitably look bad and without the context of the last game it isn't a safe assumption we'll solve in the 6p first.

Is Dunn capable of being bold like that? Sure. Would Dunn actually draw late game attention to himself for a throwaway RVS vote? I don't think so, when he very much prefers to take the back seat and passively manipulate the thread.

I don't like or understand this.

Why do you think Dunn is being bold?
Because I don't think a throwaway RVS vote is being bold in any way, and I haven't seen anything from him that contradicts him taking the back seat and passively manipulating.

Additionally, he wasn't directly calling n_m sus, he was just speculating on why he was in the pool. It might have been indirect but even if it was, it's not like a super bold statement to make.

[Vanderscamp]

Vanderscamp's ISO doesn't lend itself well to being allied with N_M imo. Ping me if you disagree.

I disagree with this, I called out in 160 some weird reasoning he's using to scumread both Lukewarm and N_M, and I suspect it may be that scum!Vanderscamp with scum!N_M trying to paint a false associative between town!Lukewarm and his buddy.

p-edit: @nEE I don't really see why he couldn't post that as scum, even if he knew it was true already. It could be a question to make him look uninformed, and it's also entirely possible N_M didn't mention you at all in pregame scum chat.

Probably clarified this already but my reasoning for scumreading lukewarm and n_m are not the same.

[Vanderscamp]

Vanderscamp's ISO doesn't lend itself well to being allied with N_M imo. Ping me if you disagree.

I disagree with this, I called out in 160 some weird reasoning he's using to scumread both Lukewarm and N_M, and I suspect it may be that scum!Vanderscamp with scum!N_M trying to paint a false associative between town!Lukewarm and his buddy.

p-edit: @nEE I don't really see why he couldn't post that as scum, even if he knew it was true already. It could be a question to make him look uninformed, and it's also entirely possible N_M didn't mention you at all in pregame scum chat.

In general, it means "This post is something I find noteworthy in a way I'm not entirely sure I want to share yet but would like other people to pay attention to." but thinking about this further I don't actually see a drawback to bringing this up.

Your argument for N_M not being partnered with Scamp applies equally well to yourself, but you phrased it in a way to avoid that entirely which leaves me inclined to think you might yourself be aligned with scamp and looking to passively clear him.

I don't like this either since it's pretty easily explained by nor being town and not thinking about the perspective about me being scum with him.

[Vanderscamp]

The reason I say that is because if we correctly eliminate in the 3 person pool today, the next 2 nightkills are going to be the other 2 in that pool

If we eliminate in the 6p pool today, and start from the 3p pool tomorrow, I think we have better odds, including if they take the 3p pool down to 2

The important thing is that if we lynch correctly into the 3p pool, we have an extra kill we can use and about a 56% chance of winning from there.
If we miskill into the big pool first and then start aiming for the small pool first we get three shots into essentially a pool of three and a pool of what will be either three or four, but needing to find two scum, which is definitely not better.
I can math it out, but hopefully it's clear?

[Vanderscamp]

I think bingle is now more scummy than n_m for the stuff I quoted.
I like a lot what Norwegian is saying.

I also think nor_GL is a scum team that absolutely does not exist because of what nor is saying about GL, I don't think nor would be calling GL confirmed town from what GL said if they were scum together.

[Vanderscamp]

do you think marcistar is scummier than bingle?

Probably, fairly close

[Vanderscamp]

VOTE: Marcistar
This feels the most likely to be scum cumulatively when looking at both worlds.

i agree

explain please.. what makes me most likely

Why do you agree?

am i meant to explain why im most likely scum..? bro idk how to do that
i guess... just because i am... is that a fine answer?

I don't mind killing into the big pool first if the scummiest person in the game is there but I will advocate very strongly for not avoiding killing into the small pool today just because it is the small pool.

So i'm the scummiest person here? aww damn hurts hard bro

I'd like a little more detail about why you think that's the case.

[Vanderscamp]

VOTE: Marcistar
This feels the most likely to be scum cumulatively when looking at both worlds.

i agree

explain please.. what makes me most likely

Why do you agree?

wait, I missed this first go around, did you actually take 191 as a serious comment? Like are you saying you genuinely believe marcistar 'agrees' she's the most likely to be scum, moment before asking Norwee what he meant?

I wasn't sure, the answer I got makes me think it was more likely serious but still not sure.

[Vanderscamp]

Marci the people in this lobby seem to take everything people say seriously. Not allowed to joke about being scummy in here

Spoiler:

Or they will elim you

nah i dont mind being sused, where i usually play im always sus no matter what i do so i just vibe with it

I'd like a little more detail about why you think that's the case.

Yes, I'll answer I'm scum because i've been joking around and not pushing for anything in particular. There's nothing really worthwhile for me to push, so me not really making any pushes at all is really sus. As well, one of the people who've seen my game as scum is saying i'm sus, so I am, since other people can pick up on my personality as scum way better than I can. I've been told before from where I play offsite that as scum, i'm very inactive and usually just think of short term, so that'll probably show up as well

wait, I missed this first go around, did you actually take 191 as a serious comment? Like are you saying you genuinely believe marcistar 'agrees' she's the most likely to be scum, moment before asking Norwee what he meant?

tbh he seems serious, so i just looked at myself from a tiny bit of a different pov i guess.

I'm guessing this is partially serious and partially a joke?

I'd be pretty interested to know how you would read yourself in this spot.

[Vanderscamp]

I think Marci's response has been pretty awkward, regardless of whether or not it was a joke.

[Vanderscamp]

Bingle can you talk about what I asked you about Dunn?

[Vanderscamp]

NM being in the group of 3 is an anomoly. Is it because the deep scum is in the pool of 6 and NM is the other scum, or because they want to miselim NM in the smaller group?

VOTE: Bingle

This has serious reasoning on 1/3 of the small pool and a vote on a different 1/3 of the small pool.

If N_M flips scum, Dunn looks weird for having posted it and there's nothing to gain from having posted it. There's really nothing more that can be elaborated on there. Either you agree with the thought or you don't.

I very much disagree, I'm pretty neutral on the post but I actively dislike your analysis of it.

Dunn is not being bold here or giving serious reasoning, he is giving empty speculation without ever actually coming to a conclusion about it. I think this kind of analysis is super easy for scum to give because it sounds gamesolvey, but it doesn't actually take a stance or anything or advance the game. And the motivation to post it as scum is to sound like you are game solving when you actually aren't.
I don't think it's bold and I don't think it's serious reasoning, and what you said earlier about him calling one person scum in the pool and voting another person from the pool is not correct.

[Vanderscamp]

VOTE: bingle

[Vanderscamp]

So they thing I was thinking about, is that imo, the scum team would have put the scum they felt could comfortable dodge a day 1 elim into the 6p neighborhood, because that is an instant lose condition. This is Marci's first game outside of the Newbie cue, and there are 3 people in this game that just saw her scum game. It just seems like a needlessly dangerous choice to put scum!marci into the 6P team.

Norwee and Bingle both have played in this set up before, and would be aware of that danger, and both started the game by pushing for a vote in the 6P pool. Not_Mafia on the other hand, came in pushing for the Day 1 elim to be in the 3P pool, so there is a chance that he thought the better Day 1 elim dodger should go in the 3P pool if he expected town to start there. But then he just agreed with the growing suspicion on Marci.

The validity of this probably depends on how well Marci did as scum in that game, if Marci did worse than average or at least was not confident this is likely a good reason to townread Marci.

Thoughts from people who played in the scumMarci game?

[Vanderscamp]

Can everyone in the 6p hood share their read on Marcistar too? Because N_M and Bingle’s reads on her are 50/50 contaminated from my POV.

Outside of what lukewarm said, scummy, I don't like the fact that she is very willing to comment on anything to do with her but basically nothing about anyone else or the rest of the game.

[Vanderscamp]

I got nothing at all out of the bingle/hopkirk exchange

[Vanderscamp]

You mean the stuff about Marci, right?

I feel like it's pretty likely that if lukewarm joined this game to encourage Marci to step out of the newbie queue (which I have no reason at all to doubt) then he's probably going to be buddying up with her as any combination of alignments. Was going to say it didn't feel like a S/S interaction from them before I remembered that isn't possible anyway.

I have a mild scum read on the defensiveness of the first paragraph of 317.

[Vanderscamp]

So they thing I was thinking about, is that imo, the scum team would have put the scum they felt could comfortable dodge a day 1 elim into the 6p neighborhood, because that is an instant lose condition. This is Marci's first game outside of the Newbie cue, and there are 3 people in this game that just saw her scum game. It just seems like a needlessly dangerous choice to put scum!marci into the 6P team.

Norwee and Bingle both have played in this set up before, and would be aware of that danger, and both started the game by pushing for a vote in the 6P pool. Not_Mafia on the other hand, came in pushing for the Day 1 elim to be in the 3P pool, so there is a chance that he thought the better Day 1 elim dodger should go in the 3P pool if he expected town to start there. But then he just agreed with the growing suspicion on Marci.

The validity of this probably depends on how well Marci did as scum in that game, if Marci did worse than average or at least was not confident this is likely a good reason to townread Marci.

Thoughts from people who played in the scumMarci game?

Personally, I think Marci did a great job, but she does not seem confident in her ability as scum. Like I read through her Mafia Chat post game, and she is constantly apologizing to her partner(s) about not being any good. Calling herself "the worst scum ever" and saying that if they lose it will be all her fault. And there were messages like this throughout the entire game, and her partner(s) constantly assuring her she is doing great.

In conclusion, she is way better then she thinks, but I don't think she would put herself in a position to potentially auto-lose for her team.

Ok, this is good enough for me

[Vanderscamp]

Idk, I'm still happy voting bingle for what was a pretty weird analysis of Dunn's post

[Vanderscamp]

Okay, if we are all going to start town reading Marci, can we talk about how weird it is that Norwee would push her here?

Like he has the added benefit of having seen her play, so there is no "she uses emojis, so I can't trust her" - which is 100% something people have scumread her for lol

Do you think she's obviously different from last game?

Because that's the thing that would make it weird, I also think she sounds scummy so I don't mind it

[Vanderscamp]

Hop, why do you think Marci's town?

[Vanderscamp]

Hopefully here in several hours

[Vanderscamp]

Okay, if we are all going to start town reading Marci, can we talk about how weird it is that Norwee would push her here?

Like he has the added benefit of having seen her play, so there is no "she uses emojis, so I can't trust her" - which is 100% something people have scumread her for lol

Do you think she's obviously different from last game?

Because that's the thing that would make it weird, I also think she sounds scummy so I don't mind it

Imo, she was a lot more active and asking more questions. I get the feeling that she feels a lot of pressure as scum to "not let her partner down", so tries a lot harder in that role. In our last game, she was TR by almost everyone pretty early in Day 1

Norwee had her as his #1 town read as of post 67, and he kept her as a town read even when he was sitting in the Ghost Chat. And post game said

Sorry everyone, my reads were awful this game. I usually am not that bad, but Marcistar's style is one that just didn't ping me as scummy at all... Well played to them.

But if Norwegian got totally fooled by her last game, why would it be weird that he is hesitant to townread her again this game?

[Vanderscamp]

can you give us a readslist Luke?

Looking at the 6p neighborhood

TR - Marci / Guilty Lion
TL -
Null - Vander / Hopkirk
SL - Dunn
SR -

Still trying to get a better feel on Vander and Hop before I try any kind of push on Dunn.

Really dislike the last line
You shouldn't need to get a better feel on anyone before pushing someone

[Vanderscamp]

Re: the hopkirk/lukewarm case:

I think lukewarm's initial response was not great until page 18 where he stepped it up and responded pretty townily.
I like his confidence that he is right about this, especially stuff like the line about "I'm done arguing this and if I get voted out I get voted out"

I also don't agree with hopkirk that he has not been pushing the game forward this game.

[Vanderscamp]

I reread Vanderscamp, not feeling like voting there

I don't want to vote for Marci or Guiltylion either

So for me it's Luke or hopkirk in the 6

VOTE: Hopkirk

Do you have anything else?

[Vanderscamp]

442 is an interesting post.
I feel like it’s more likely to come from town tbh. But i haven’t liked their other "cases" recently on me/Hopkirk.
I’ll need to give this some more time. UNVOTE:

This is how I feel, I like Luke's latest defence of this stuff while disliking what he said previously

[Vanderscamp]

I reread Vanderscamp, not feeling like voting there

why the hell is everyone townreading Vanderscamp this game?? I really can't remember a single post or comment he's made that has made me feel like he's earnestly game solving. I'm going to re-ISO him again after I respond to the posts we've had but I'm also asking myself this: if town!Vander, why am I the only person who has even looked his direction? Who is scum in either pool who's keeping Vander on the table as a potential mis-elimination today?

I don't agree that everyone has been townreading me?...

[Vanderscamp]

I feel like it's pretty likely that if lukewarm joined this game to encourage Marci to step out of the newbie queue (which I have no reason at all to doubt) then he's probably going to be buddying up with her as any combination of alignments.

Was going to say it didn't feel like a S/S interaction from them before I remembered that isn't possible anyway

.

I'm mulling over this comment on reread... I feel it's less likely town would forget who is in which pool and which interactions can or can't be S/S. I've had my fair share of poorly thought out comments/takes this game, but certainly the entire game I've been

constantly

paying attention to interactions cross-pool and keeping in mind potential scum candidates of each pool. I'm skeptical town!Vanders wouldn't really be aware that Marci/Luke can't be scum together 300+ posts into the game.

VOTE: Vanderscamp

I am aware, which is why I mentioned it.
I would be okay with this reason if I had actually forgotten what the pools were and then corrected it in some other post, but this feels like an extremely bad reason to scumread me since I am doing what you're saying I didn't.
I independently read their interactions as not scum together, and then I thought about what the pools were and realized that that didn't matter anyway.

[Vanderscamp]

I feel like it's pretty likely that if lukewarm joined this game to encourage Marci to step out of the newbie queue (which I have no reason at all to doubt) then he's probably going to be buddying up with her as any combination of alignments.

Was going to say it didn't feel like a S/S interaction from them before I remembered that isn't possible anyway

.

I'm mulling over this comment on reread... I feel it's less likely town would forget who is in which pool and which interactions can or can't be S/S. I've had my fair share of poorly thought out comments/takes this game, but certainly the entire game I've been

constantly

paying attention to interactions cross-pool and keeping in mind potential scum candidates of each pool. I'm skeptical town!Vanders wouldn't really be aware that Marci/Luke can't be scum together 300+ posts into the game.

VOTE: Vanderscamp

is this the only point you have on him?

No.

I already called out that 147 combined with 150 looks like fake reasoning to me - he's giving reasons to scumread both N_M and Lukewarm but not paying any attention as to whether those scumreads made sense together.

I didn't feel like his vote on you had any conviction or intent to solve.

The strongest/most meaningful content he's posted has been about Bingle, his questionable reasoning about both the Dunn & Norway slots, but it's rather easy for me to imagine that content being either a) scum!Vanders jumping on a townie making illogical/reachy assertions without justifying why those assertions indicate

scum

alignment or b) scum!Vanders distancing/bussing a buddy!Bingle. He's also just holistically been pretty inactive this game, he hasn't bothered to fight harder against the thread consensus to eliminate in the 6p despite his strongest SR being Bingle, and he hasn't taken a lead or a stake in substantially building nor defusing any wagons.

Given that it's D1 and he's played pretty careful, I don't have any surefire scumtells to nail him on, but the overall profile of his posting and votes this game vibes very much to me like scum treading water and trying to let town eat itself up in the meantime.

This feels extremely disingenuous


I've responded to your case about 147 and 150 already, can you respond to what I said about it?
I independently read both n_m and lukewarm as scummy for different reasons. I marginally agree with your reasoning that they are less likely to be together, but I don't think it's impossible for them to be together, and I'm not going to not read something I think is scummy as scummy because someone else who I read as scummy is having an interaction with them that makes them less likely s/s. I would much rather read someone based on how I'm actually reading them than conditional reads of players I don't know the alignment of that may be wrong anyway. Do you disagree?

Re: bingle it is pretty obvious why the stuff I said about him is actively scummy rather than just null. From what people have said, Bingle is obvious a pretty veteran player and if he has obviously crap takes about posts, I'm not willing to give him the benefit of the doubt about and think that he is potentially just a bad townie who would not know any better since he clearly isn't.

It's also ridiculous to say that I haven't pushed harder against killing into the big pool, I have probably said more than any other player in this game about which pool is better to kill into

[Vanderscamp]

Ok, i'm on a keyboard finally.
So my first nuanced thought is that it would be weird for Bingle to put himself in the 3P hood as scum when he was put in it as town in the last game and saw how bad it went for Skitter. I feel like Bingle would see himself as a much better player than me or N_M so for him to put himself in there seems really bold. N_M however, might feasibly do it for the memes.
But whatever i think we should eliminate in the 6P hood. Because then we can win in day 1 just like the last time Divide and Conquered was hosted.

I still maintain that it's marginally better to kill into the small pool first, but more important is just to vote the person we think is most likely scum.

But it's imo definitely wrong to want to prefer killing into the big pool, we will win just as easily by killing the scummiest player in the big pool and being right on D4 as we will on D1.

[Vanderscamp]

My gut reaction to this set up, is that it makes more sense to eliminate from the 3 person neighborhood, unless someone from the 6 person neighborhood really stands out as a scum read.

We did the math last game on killing into the different pools and there was something like a 4% increase in win rate by going small pool first, practically I think it is even better because it ensures one mafia dead at some point in the game, which I think is a lot more valuable than the zero value that an assumption of random killing attributes to it.

But last game the scummiest person was the scum in the big pool and we just killed them D1 for an easy game.

[Vanderscamp]

My gut reaction to this set up, is that it makes more sense to eliminate from the 3 person neighborhood, unless someone from the 6 person neighborhood really stands out as a scum read.

We did the math last game on killing into the different pools and there was something like a 4% increase in win rate by going small pool first, practically I think it is even better because it ensures one mafia dead at some point in the game, which I think is a lot more valuable than the zero value that an assumption of random killing attributes to it.

But last game the scummiest person was the scum in the big pool and we just killed them D1 for an easy game.

I have reconsidered, and I think I am on now leaning towards voting from within the 6 player neighborhood now.

I think I have come to the conclusion that shooting in the 6p neighborhood is better even if we miss Day 1

If we hit the 6p mafia:
Day 1 - Town wins automatically
Day 2 - Town gains 2 confirmed town for Day 3

If we hit the 3p mafia
Day 1 - Town gains 1 Confirmed town for Day 2
Day 2 - Town gains nothing

There is just a much higher reward for hunting within the 6p Mafia

If we vote wrong the mafia kill likely lands in the group of 6, making it easier to figure out

I actually agree that getting out the 3-person hood mafia today makes the game harder than miseliming in the 6 person hood

Going to try to not respond to every single one of these but this stance is absurd

[Vanderscamp]

My gut reaction to this set up, is that it makes more sense to eliminate from the 3 person neighborhood, unless someone from the 6 person neighborhood really stands out as a scum read.

We did the math last game on killing into the different pools and there was something like a 4% increase in win rate by going small pool first, practically I think it is even better because it ensures one mafia dead at some point in the game, which I think is a lot more valuable than the zero value that an assumption of random killing attributes to it.

But last game the scummiest person was the scum in the big pool and we just killed them D1 for an easy game.

I have reconsidered, and I think I am on now leaning towards voting from within the 6 player neighborhood now.

I think I have come to the conclusion that shooting in the 6p neighborhood is better even if we miss Day 1

If we hit the 6p mafia:
Day 1 - Town wins automatically
Day 2 - Town gains 2 confirmed town for Day 3

If we hit the 3p mafia
Day 1 - Town gains 1 Confirmed town for Day 2
Day 2 - Town gains nothing

There is just a much higher reward for hunting within the 6p Mafia

If we vote wrong the mafia kill likely lands in the group of 6, making it easier to figure out

I actually agree that getting out the 3-person hood mafia today makes the game harder than miseliming in the 6 person hood

Going to try to not respond to every single one of these but this stance is absurd

I have reconsidered, and I think I am on now leaning towards voting from within the 6 player neighborhood now.

I think I have come to the conclusion that shooting in the 6p neighborhood is better even if we miss Day 1

If we hit the 6p mafia:
Day 1 - Town wins automatically
Day 2 - Town gains 2 confirmed town for Day 3

If we hit the 3p mafia
Day 1 - Town gains 1 Confirmed town for Day 2
Day 2 - Town gains nothing

There is just a much higher reward for hunting within the 6p Mafia

If we vote wrong the mafia kill likely lands in the group of 6, making it easier to figure out

I actually agree that getting out the 3-person hood mafia today makes the game harder than miseliming in the 6 person hood

Going to try to not respond to every single one of these but this stance is absurd

Why?

Because miskilling D1 almost always does not make the game easier than killing correctly.

I think the point you are trying to make is that killing into the big pool first, missing, and getting another NK in there makes solving that pool easier, but I don't think that is close to worth the value of not having to solve the small pool first.
The small pool scum is NOT someone we can just freely guarantee being able to kill if we kill aggressively into the big pool and do badly.

[Vanderscamp]

My gut reaction to this set up, is that it makes more sense to eliminate from the 3 person neighborhood, unless someone from the 6 person neighborhood really stands out as a scum read.

We did the math last game on killing into the different pools and there was something like a 4% increase in win rate by going small pool first, practically I think it is even better because it ensures one mafia dead at some point in the game, which I think is a lot more valuable than the zero value that an assumption of random killing attributes to it.

But last game the scummiest person was the scum in the big pool and we just killed them D1 for an easy game.

I have reconsidered, and I think I am on now leaning towards voting from within the 6 player neighborhood now.

I think I have come to the conclusion that shooting in the 6p neighborhood is better even if we miss Day 1

If we hit the 6p mafia:
Day 1 - Town wins automatically
Day 2 - Town gains 2 confirmed town for Day 3

If we hit the 3p mafia
Day 1 - Town gains 1 Confirmed town for Day 2
Day 2 - Town gains nothing

There is just a much higher reward for hunting within the 6p Mafia

If we vote wrong the mafia kill likely lands in the group of 6, making it easier to figure out

I actually agree that getting out the 3-person hood mafia today makes the game harder than miseliming in the 6 person hood

Going to try to not respond to every single one of these but this stance is absurd

I have reconsidered, and I think I am on now leaning towards voting from within the 6 player neighborhood now.

I think I have come to the conclusion that shooting in the 6p neighborhood is better even if we miss Day 1

If we hit the 6p mafia:
Day 1 - Town wins automatically
Day 2 - Town gains 2 confirmed town for Day 3

If we hit the 3p mafia
Day 1 - Town gains 1 Confirmed town for Day 2
Day 2 - Town gains nothing

There is just a much higher reward for hunting within the 6p Mafia

If we vote wrong the mafia kill likely lands in the group of 6, making it easier to figure out

I actually agree that getting out the 3-person hood mafia today makes the game harder than miseliming in the 6 person hood

Going to try to not respond to every single one of these but this stance is absurd

Why?

Because miskilling D1 almost always does not make the game easier than killing correctly.

I think the point you are trying to make is that killing into the big pool first, missing, and getting another NK in there makes solving that pool easier, but I don't think that is close to worth the value of not having to solve the small pool first.
The small pool scum is NOT someone we can just freely guarantee being able to kill if we kill aggressively into the big pool and do badly.

My gut reaction to this set up, is that it makes more sense to eliminate from the 3 person neighborhood, unless someone from the 6 person neighborhood really stands out as a scum read.

We did the math last game on killing into the different pools and there was something like a 4% increase in win rate by going small pool first, practically I think it is even better because it ensures one mafia dead at some point in the game, which I think is a lot more valuable than the zero value that an assumption of random killing attributes to it.

But last game the scummiest person was the scum in the big pool and we just killed them D1 for an easy game.

So I looked back at the last game.

It is interesting that you site back that the math was done in the last game, without acknowledging that Bingle was the one that did the math, and that he was town that game, and that he also concluded that it was still better to shoot in the 6P pool.

I have been informed by a monkey that I should treat Bingle's mechanical talk as gospel, regardless of his alignment, but here I can clearly see that ConfirmedTown Bingle made the case that shooting from the 6P pool first is the better strategy.

IIRC Bingle did some initial math which was very wrong, I went back and corrected the math and we both agreed that the correct numbers were something along the lines of 41% town win rate vs 45% town win rate by killing into big pool first and little pool first respectively.
From a math standpoint it's definitely better to kill into the small pool first, bingle and some other people made some arguments about why killing into the big pool first was better that I don't agree with since I think they mostly make assumptions about things being good that are actually neutral.

I don't mind killing into the big pool first if the scummiest person in the game is there but I will advocate very strongly for not avoiding killing into the small pool today just because it is the small pool.

[Vanderscamp]

My gut reaction to this set up, is that it makes more sense to eliminate from the 3 person neighborhood, unless someone from the 6 person neighborhood really stands out as a scum read.

We did the math last game on killing into the different pools and there was something like a 4% increase in win rate by going small pool first, practically I think it is even better because it ensures one mafia dead at some point in the game, which I think is a lot more valuable than the zero value that an assumption of random killing attributes to it.

But last game the scummiest person was the scum in the big pool and we just killed them D1 for an easy game.

I have reconsidered, and I think I am on now leaning towards voting from within the 6 player neighborhood now.

I think I have come to the conclusion that shooting in the 6p neighborhood is better even if we miss Day 1

If we hit the 6p mafia:
Day 1 - Town wins automatically
Day 2 - Town gains 2 confirmed town for Day 3

If we hit the 3p mafia
Day 1 - Town gains 1 Confirmed town for Day 2
Day 2 - Town gains nothing

There is just a much higher reward for hunting within the 6p Mafia

If we vote wrong the mafia kill likely lands in the group of 6, making it easier to figure out

I actually agree that getting out the 3-person hood mafia today makes the game harder than miseliming in the 6 person hood

Going to try to not respond to every single one of these but this stance is absurd

I have reconsidered, and I think I am on now leaning towards voting from within the 6 player neighborhood now.

I think I have come to the conclusion that shooting in the 6p neighborhood is better even if we miss Day 1

If we hit the 6p mafia:
Day 1 - Town wins automatically
Day 2 - Town gains 2 confirmed town for Day 3

If we hit the 3p mafia
Day 1 - Town gains 1 Confirmed town for Day 2
Day 2 - Town gains nothing

There is just a much higher reward for hunting within the 6p Mafia

If we vote wrong the mafia kill likely lands in the group of 6, making it easier to figure out

I actually agree that getting out the 3-person hood mafia today makes the game harder than miseliming in the 6 person hood

Going to try to not respond to every single one of these but this stance is absurd

Why?

Because miskilling D1 almost always does not make the game easier than killing correctly.

I think the point you are trying to make is that killing into the big pool first, missing, and getting another NK in there makes solving that pool easier, but I don't think that is close to worth the value of not having to solve the small pool first.
The small pool scum is NOT someone we can just freely guarantee being able to kill if we kill aggressively into the big pool and do badly.

My gut reaction to this set up, is that it makes more sense to eliminate from the 3 person neighborhood, unless someone from the 6 person neighborhood really stands out as a scum read.

We did the math last game on killing into the different pools and there was something like a 4% increase in win rate by going small pool first, practically I think it is even better because it ensures one mafia dead at some point in the game, which I think is a lot more valuable than the zero value that an assumption of random killing attributes to it.

But last game the scummiest person was the scum in the big pool and we just killed them D1 for an easy game.

So I looked back at the last game.

It is interesting that you site back that the math was done in the last game, without acknowledging that Bingle was the one that did the math, and that he was town that game, and that he also concluded that it was still better to shoot in the 6P pool.

I have been informed by a monkey that I should treat Bingle's mechanical talk as gospel, regardless of his alignment, but here I can clearly see that ConfirmedTown Bingle made the case that shooting from the 6P pool first is the better strategy.

IIRC Bingle did some initial math which was very wrong, I went back and corrected the math and we both agreed that the correct numbers were something along the lines of 41% town win rate vs 45% town win rate by killing into big pool first and little pool first respectively.
From a math standpoint it's definitely better to kill into the small pool first, bingle and some other people made some arguments about why killing into the big pool first was better that I don't agree with since I think they mostly make assumptions about things being good that are actually neutral.

I don't mind killing into the big pool first if the scummiest person in the game is there but I will advocate very strongly for not avoiding killing into the small pool today just because it is the small pool.

The reason I say that is because if we correctly eliminate in the 3 person pool today, the next 2 nightkills are going to be the other 2 in that pool

If we eliminate in the 6p pool today, and start from the 3p pool tomorrow, I think we have better odds, including if they take the 3p pool down to 2

The important thing is that if we lynch correctly into the 3p pool, we have an extra kill we can use and about a 56% chance of winning from there.
If we miskill into the big pool first and then start aiming for the small pool first we get three shots into essentially a pool of three and a pool of what will be either three or four, but needing to find two scum, which is definitely not better.
I can math it out, but hopefully it's clear?

[Vanderscamp]

I'm happy to keep spamming the thread about killing into the small pool not being a non-viable option, I like talking about this stuff, but given there were three votes on bingle for a while it didn't seem like the entire thread was actively averse to it.

[Vanderscamp]

I'll hammer Scamp if he hits E-1 on the premise we turbolim Hop then Norwee after.

Why would you hammer me if you're pretty sure it's hop/Norwegian?

[Vanderscamp]

I reread Vanderscamp, not feeling like voting there

I don't want to vote for Marci or Guiltylion either

So for me it's Luke or hopkirk in the 6

VOTE: Hopkirk

Do you have anything else?

Yeah: I'm ready to proceed to an elimination

Do you have anything alignment related?

[Vanderscamp]

Of the small pool I think Norwegian is towny and bingle and n_m are both scummy.

I strongly dislike bingle saying he's willing to hammer me, last game (where we were both town) he had a strong town read on me, I think GL's reasons on me here are decently worse than the cases made against me last game (with the exception of pooky's) and I don't believe he'd randomly be happy to hammer me here on the assumption that we're somehow going to kill a couple people that there is not a lot of strong consensus towards.

I would kill Dunn pretty happily in the big pool because of the complete lack of content, I read Marci as town from the meta about which pool she would be in despite reading her content as scummy.
I think I like lukewarm now, I'm null on hopkirk and I dislike GL pretty much exclusively because of his reasons for wanting to kill me.

[Vanderscamp]

And like Marcistar said, apparently Bingle thought it was a 50/50% chance either N_M or me could be scum with Hopkirk, his pet scumread. But now he is 100% sure it’s me and Hopkirk to the extent he will quickhammer someone he townreads just to eliminate us? Thst’s some scummy garbage.
VOTE: Bingle

I agree with this

I'd like to hear what bingle thinks is different about me this game vs last game which would justify him being willing to hammer me here.

[Vanderscamp]

Anyway, i'm kinda tired of seeing comments about how changing my votes is scummy when that's probably the most town indicative thing you'd find about my play if you knew anything about my general playstyle as both alignments.

I think in general, changing votes and being uncertain is a town indicator

[Vanderscamp]

I am also struggling to figure out your mindset for pushing Marci earlier. Like you did not even do it because you scum read her

Going through ISO's with GL conf!town, soul townread on Lukewarm, and Bingle putting paranoia on Hopkirk we're left with this in a Bingle!scum world.
Bingle -> {Dunnstral}{Marcistar}{Vanderscamp}
Most emphasis on Marcistar and Vanderscamp i think.

Assuming N_M scum we're left with:

Dunnstral
Hopkirk
marcistar

Vanderscamp's ISO doesn't lend itself well to being allied with N_M imo. Ping me if you disagree.

VOTE: Marcistar
This feels the most likely to be scum cumulatively when looking at both worlds.

Like your vote on her, that almost led to her being pushed out Day 1, came simply because she was on both lists (even though you also had Dunn on both lists), and that does not feel like a genuine reason someone pushes Marci out given your conversation with her where you talked her into playing this game with you.

Spoiler:

can u come play with me somewhere else im too shy to go alone without knowing anyone ;-;

If you want, you can sign up to one of the games i'm already signed up for.
I'm going to play in this micro 9 player setup:
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 5&start=64

The 9 player micro i posted is really easy to understand.

I quite honestly expected all 3 of us to be buddying a bit, especially for the first half of Day 1, seeing as how you and I both were trying to help her branch out. But instead, your approach to her was try and push her out over a very weak PoE.

Like, if you had come out with a strong scum case on her, I would have understood. But your exact reasoning boiled down to "well, Marci is on both lists" when Dunn was sitting there on both lists too. Which makes me think that you were mostly thinking "which of these would be easier to push out atm?"

I think I am more convinced in my scum read on you then I am in my scum read on Hopkirk

VOTE: Norwee

I think Norwegian is the towniest of the people in the small pool, I think bingle has done several scummy things for the reasons Norwegian and I talked about recently, and n_m is playing very differently from his recent town game I played with him.

[Vanderscamp]

And like Marcistar said, apparently Bingle thought it was a 50/50% chance either N_M or me could be scum with Hopkirk, his pet scumread. But now he is 100% sure it’s me and Hopkirk to the extent he will quickhammer someone he townreads just to eliminate us? Thst’s some scummy garbage.
VOTE: Bingle

I agree with this

I'd like to hear what bingle thinks is different about me this game vs last game which would justify him being willing to hammer me here.

I’m townreading all of Dunn/Marci/GL/Luke. People are aggressively ignoring how obvscum norwee and hopkirk are.

If I have to lim you to get norwee/hopkirk, so be it.

The first line is fine, the second line is not.
How do you think that would help you kill them?

[Vanderscamp]

What I mean is: first sentence and third sentence

[Vanderscamp]

Does anyone have a read on dunnstral? It's hard to sort with this little content.

@dunn - you've seen my last two scumgames from the town side and the scumside. You're scumreading me?

Scummy for lack of game solving, would happily kill there

[Vanderscamp]

if he flips town i will gladly take the elimination tommorow. Just give me this one thing.

I think this is very towny from nor

[Vanderscamp]

I'll hammer Scamp if he hits E-1 on the premise we turbolim Hop then Norwee after.

Daily reminder of how scummy this fucking post is.

I also still agree with this

[Vanderscamp]

oh yeah, Jingle's alleged convinction is incredibly out of line with what's reasonable. i'm not super confident on Luke because this can easily be Scum!Bingle throwing shade at me/norway with the intent of letting a Luke wagon go through today then plan to shade me/norway from it. Scum!Bingle doesn't need to care about openwolfing when he's not at a realistic risk of us voting him on account of the setup/stated desires to vote in the 6p pool

I'll hammer Scamp if he hits E-1 on the premise we turbolim Hop then Norwee after.

Would you agree to a vote on you given the same premise?

we all know we're voting in the 6p pool so this question is pointless

Ok, let's talk then about why we all know we're voting into the 6p pool.

Why is that?
Because the math that bingle and I worked out last game on which pool gives us better odds, assuming random killing, gives voting into the small pool first a pretty non-negligible 10% (as a ratio) winrate increase of killing into the big pool first.
No one is arguing with that math.
To make up for that, there has to be a good reason to vote into the big pool first, but i think a lot of the reasons given both this game and last game are things that don't change whether you actually vote into the big pool first or not.
The only one I remember recently was the thing someone said that was obviously wrong about our odds of winning being smaller with a scum flip in the small pool vs a miskill in the big pool.
Additionally I think there is some real value in guaranteeing a scum flip before losing, which killing into the small pool first guarantees but the big pool first does not.

[Vanderscamp]

I'll hammer Scamp if he hits E-1 on the premise we turbolim Hop then Norwee after.

Would you agree to a vote on you given the same premise?

Yes.

Okay. Here is what I am thinking. Bingle is (from what I can tell from other games) an extremely good scum hunter. Like multiple people in other games looking at his scum reads like they are gospel. And here, he is either scum, or he is 100% convinced he has found the scum.

I am no longer willing to consider any vote outside of [Norwee, Hopkirk, Bingle], and if we vote Bingle and he is town, then we immediately follow through on his Hopkirk read.

No, because I'm not going to blindly sheep someone's read just because they're a good player.

I don't mind killing hopkirk, especially if bingle flips town, but I think if bingle is town n_m is much more likely to be scum than Norwegian, I'm strongly against sheeping that one just for the sake of it.

[Vanderscamp]

I'll hammer Scamp if he hits E-1 on the premise we turbolim Hop then Norwee after.

Would you agree to a vote on you given the same premise?

Yes.

Okay. Here is what I am thinking. Bingle is (from what I can tell from other games) an extremely good scum hunter. Like multiple people in other games looking at his scum reads like they are gospel. And here, he is either scum, or he is 100% convinced he has found the scum.

I am no longer willing to consider any vote outside of [Norwee, Hopkirk, Bingle], and if we vote Bingle and he is town, then we immediately follow through on his Hopkirk read.

This is also a very scummy take

[Vanderscamp]

Here are a few things I want to point out about Hopkirk

Hopkirk accused Bingle of chainsaw defending me, when I don't think he could have genuinely thought that.

Bingle has been pushing on Hopkirk for a while, and Hopkirk knows that.
Hopkirk interacted with Bingle's read on him in posts 301 302 307 308 and 325. So he knew Bingle was pushing on him, even called it a shitpush

Then hopkirk made a case against me starting at post 372.

Then Hopkirk accused Bingle of chainsaw defending me in 415.


Also, this feels wrong too

Spoiler:

also full disclosure i uh... asked whether you thought you were playing differently before looking back through your games. it's a pretty fun question to ask people

^ 'want it more'/level of effort they'll put in as an alignment. i'm guessing you'll give it a 0/10 if you do a slang review here too

lukewarm seems really really different to all of his other games. what's up with that luke?

Because when he asked me if I thought I was playing differently, he did not just ask. He accused me of playing really really differently, then doubled down with a case. To then say that that came without ever looking back over my games seems wrong.


But again. Does anyone think that Hopkirk and Bingle could be TvT? Because I don't. Like, one of them has to be scum imo. So I feel like everyone should switch their vote to one of them.

Why do you think they can't be T vs T?
I don't think they are but I don't see why it's impossible either.

[Vanderscamp]

I'll hammer Scamp if he hits E-1 on the premise we turbolim Hop then Norwee after.

Daily reminder of how scummy this fucking post is.

I also still agree with this

Also, how does it make any sense for Bingle to argue in favour of eliminating some random person that has nothing to do with me/Hopkirk, and then they'll somehow believe it is going to make the others believe it to be more likely that me/Hopkirk is a team? Since when does "town" THINK this?

Yep, it doesn't

I'm on board

[Vanderscamp]

like that was a self-hammer since you made the vote knowing that NM was going to vote you. if this flips town then i'm pissed and you've lost the respect i had for you as a player before this. the amount of self-hammers i see from town ruining a good half of my games is pissing me off.

I think given scum bingle this was a very towny comment from hopkirk btw

[Vanderscamp]

I also think given scum bingle the stuff lukewarm was saying about flipping bingle to confirm the validity of his reads if he's town is towny

[Vanderscamp]

I really don't think Lukewarm is likely, all the twilight posting would be hard to do in real time knowing Bingle scumflip was imminent, including posts in our hood between thread lock and flip.

I posted this in our hood and Vander ignored it in favor of not posting at all over the entirety of the night phase, here it is for your viewing pleasure N_M:

I think Vanders' progression on Bingle is quite awkward

in 230 he votes marcistar, despite the fact that he claimed to believe we should eliminate in the 3p. (I still maintain that despite posting a handful of times about eliminating in the 3p, Vanderscamp did not seem to actually care about eliminating in the 3p, especially when most players had suggested that we shouldn't).

He then quotes Bingle posts from prior to 230, in his 231 and 233 he quotes Bingle's 212 and 219, then concludes in 235 that he thinks Bingle is scummier than N_M and that he thinks nEE is town. If that's the case, given that he thinks 3p was a better odds to hit scum and he's townreading one of the 3p, why was he voting elsewhere? I called this out in my post 236 and got a very short 238 in reply, which I didn't sense Vanders genuinely believed given that he spent more time discussing Bingle than marcistar.

Then the progression from question -> I don't like your answer -> vote (in 255, 262, 263) feels like where the decision to bus comes in. Despite scumreading and voting (!) Bingle, Vanders claims he got "nothing" out of Bingle v Hopkirk in 329 - I feel a townie who was voting Bingle as their primary SR there would have had more to say.

I also still agree with my own 469 and I don't think Vanderscamp understood my point nor addressed it in a satisfying way. My point wasn't that he wasn't aware of the pools once he posted, my point was "I was gonna say it's not S-S until I remembered [emphasis mine] it couldn't be" betrays a lack of critical thought or care about the pools when analyzing interactions. I haven't once forgotten who was in which pool this game, because it's centrally important to determining who scum is. Vanders post implied that he did, which I find hard to believe coming from town.

I also think Bingle's openwolf 477 may have been meant to scare us away from a Vander wagon.

I'm not reading the neighbourhood chat, sorry.

I don't think it's a thing that you really believe this though?...

I voted Marci because my stance, which I've mentioned several times already, is that it's better to kill your top scum read rather than vote into a specific pool, but it is definitely wrong to want to not kill into the small pool for the sake of it, which I brought up basically every time someone indicated that that's what they wanted to do. I've also mentioned several times that in the other iteration of this, my top scum (correctly) was actually in the big pool and I voted there.

I also don't know how else I can respond to 469?
I did display "critical thought and care" about pool interactions because I saw and interaction and then I did think about whether it was possible and then came to the conclusion that it wasn't.
Maybe me saying I forgot implied I was sitting on that read for like an hour or something? What happened was that I looked at an interaction, had a conclusion about it, instantly thought more about it, and then realized it wasn't a thing. A pretty good example of something similar is when you're catching up with the thread after a flip, you get a read on something a dead player said, and then you realize they're dead.

[Vanderscamp]

VOTE: guiltylion

You said last time you had to concede some of the points you were making that I responded to, which points were you actually conceding?
Because this is basically all stuff I've already responded to.
I can sort of believe that you can have trouble with my thing about the s/s thing since I may have phrased it pretty badly, but I don't believe that you can be reading my posts and then making the argument that me voting Marci is scummy in good faith, especially since you asked me the relevant question of who I scumread more between Marci and bingle.

[Vanderscamp]

Overall, I like a lot of your reasoning about Vanderscamp, but this one really give me pause.

I also think Bingle's openwolf 477 may have been meant to scare us away from a Vander wagon.

Because, like when he made 477, You+Marci were alraedy voting for Vanderscamp, and I was so obviously trapped in his pocket, he should have know there was a chance I would follow his lead there. That puts Vanders at e-2, which is often equivalent to e-1 in a game with Not_Mafia. So, if I had followed through with his suggestion, the he would have immediately been put into the position of needing in to ante up or back out of his "I will vote Vanderscamp if we then vote Hopkirk"

For 477 to save Vanderscamp, Bingle would have had to assume I was going to climb out of his pocket at that moment. But from the nice and cozy comfort of his pocket, I saw it was "extreme confidence in his scum read" instead of "openwolfing." So 477 came awfully close to either getting Vanders voted out (GL, Marci, Me, Bingle, Not_Mafia is an Elimination) or essentially a scum partner claim by forcing Bingle to backtrack 477 the moment I follow him and vote Vanders.

This is a good point, if anyone else had voted me at the point where bingle had made the comment, if we're scum partners he is essentially outing that fact since he wouldn't be able to vote me there.

[Vanderscamp]

VOTE: vanderscamp

Why?

[Vanderscamp]

I'm a million percent not buying that you don't believe that town!me could see you as scummy here. You are only pushing me because I'm pushing you and you feel forced to 1v1 me to discredit me.

The point of 469 is that it should not have ever crossed your mind that marci/Luke COULD have been S-S in the first place

I thought I should be the most obvious town in the big pool coming into the day today, that obviously isn't true since you and hopkirk are both voting me.

I specifically don't like you thinking the Marci vote is suspicious, I think that is much scummier than your s-s thing.

Why do you think it's scummy that I voted Marci? Because your reasons are all things that are not only wrong, but I explained why they're wrong both at the start of the game and when you made this case on me last time.
I find it hard to believe that you can actually make this case against me in good faith because of this.

You said earlier that you were conceding some of the points you made against me.
Which points were those?

[Vanderscamp]

I'm not reading the neighbourhood chat, sorry.

shouldn't you be concerned about what scum might be posting in there?

No?...

I didn't read the other chat last game at all either.

[Vanderscamp]

I normally don't like to do protracted 1v1s so don't expect me to engage with every point but I'll give you a bit of an olive branch here

I thought I should be the most obvious town in the big pool coming into the day today, that obviously isn't true since you and hopkirk are both voting me.

I specifically don't like you thinking the Marci vote is suspicious, I think that is much scummier than your s-s thing.

Why do you think it's scummy that I voted Marci? Because your reasons are all things that are not only wrong, but I explained why they're wrong both at the start of the game and when you made this case on me last time.
I find it hard to believe that you can actually make this case against me in good faith because of this.

You said earlier that you were conceding some of the points you made against me.
Which points were those?

a) first off, the idea that you would be most obvious town is frankly absurd to me. In what ways do you think you should be cleared after D1? Serious question, I'm not trying to be snarky why should a neutral observer see you as locktown?

b) It's not scummy that you voted Marci, what I am saying is scummy is how toothless it was. All you said via why she was scum was calling her awkward, you spent far more of your words on Bingle than her, and you switched to Bingle almost immediately. To me, your Marci vote looks more like a floaty convenient vote rather than one you genuinely believed in,

that

is why I see it as scummy.

c) It's mainly 495, it's fair of you to say that we did actually have a decent sized Bingle wagon and personally all of your posts feel vaguely robotic to me so I may be underrating the seriousness of your belief in eliminating in the 3p over the 6p. Especially given that you did also say you weren't opposed to eliminating in the 6p and were more arguing from the point of voting our top scumreads.

as for your most recent post, if you are town you should absolutely be reading the hood. How otherwise are we to discern between scum making excuses for not posting there? Can you really say you're giving this game your best effort if you're categorically ignoring information that may help you sort people?

A) I don't think the bingle kill would have happened without me.
I was continually calling out the stuff he was saying that made no sense, and I was essentially the only person who was defending killing into the 3p pool, I was speaking up to argue that killing there is not a bad idea when people were suggesting it was. Not possible for you to know since you've never played with me but I generally avoid bussing, I've commented on this on other games on this site.

B) I thought they were both fairly scummy and iirc didn't feel super strongly about either. When I thought bingle became more scummy I voted him. If your reasoning was that the vote was toothless, why were you talking about the different pools and which of them I was voting into?

C) I don't care if scum posts there or not, there's no reason to post anything of value in that hood that we can't post in the thread instead.

[Vanderscamp]

I'm interested to know why you voted in the first place

[Vanderscamp]

A) I don't think the bingle kill would have happened without me.
I was continually calling out the stuff he was saying that made no sense, and I was essentially the only person who was defending killing into the 3p pool, I was speaking up to argue that killing there is not a bad idea when people were suggesting it was. Not possible for you to know since you've never played with me but I generally avoid bussing, I've commented on this on other games on this site.

Ok, but you understand that the nature of this setup encourages the 6p scum to look as good as possible on the 3p scum's flip, correct? If I were scum I'd certainly be pushing my buddy to make myself look town on his/her flip, especially once it was clear they were getting suspicion.

Can you also link me to those comments?

B) I thought they were both fairly scummy and iirc didn't feel super strongly about either. When I thought bingle became more scummy I voted him. If your reasoning was that the vote was toothless, why were you talking about the different pools and which of them I was voting into?

Because from where I'm sitting:
- You made an argument about why eliminating in the 3p should not be disregarded and if anything was actually slightly better odds to hit scum
- You gave plenty of reasons for suspecting Bingle and had nEE down as a townread
- You instead voted in the 6p for reasons I saw as comparatively much weaker, which seems incongruent with both of the above

C) I don't care if scum posts there or not, there's no reason to post anything of value in that hood that we can't post in the thread instead.

My point is that town should be scumhunting in both threads, and you ignoring me in the hood overnight feels more likely to be scum ignoring conflict/posting until they have to, rather than town just completely ignoring game relevant content.

I don't think that the 3p scum is anything close to a lost cause in this setup given the number of people who are happy to kill into the big pool first.
I also pushed bingle before he got suspicion iirc

Here's what I think is the most recent comment
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12738362

You may think my case against Marci was weaker than my bingle case, that's fine!
Eventually I did too when bingle didn't respond very well to what I had to say about him.
I don't think I was on Marci particularly long during the period when I scumread both of them because I remember voting bingle when he did react badly to what I had to say.


And I don't actually agree that town should be scumhunting in both threads.
Why is the neighborhood chat worth scumhunting in, how is it not just strictly worse than posting in the thread?
What benefit is there to a chat that potentially gets relayed to 100% of the scum and a fraction of the town?

But luckily you don't need to take my word for it that I believe this, you can look at the past game of this where I also did not read the neighborhood chat.

[Vanderscamp]

I'm interested to know why you voted in the first place

Do you think Hopkirk is scum after yesterday? Otherwise this is a completely useless question.

No, I don't think he is 0% to be scum though.

[Vanderscamp]

marci, do you disagree with any of my reasons for townreading those 4 players above?

I get why I might be suspicious or a POE scum candidate from a neutral view of the game, I'm trying not to get salty about it, but I think anyone townreading Vander is giving him way too much credit for play that profiles to me as the most scummy of the remaining players. It's clear the dude knows how to write townie sounding posts/arguments regardless of his alignment, but I think scum in this setup is more likely to wind up scumreading/voting their 3p buddy because they have no shot if they're linked together. It's also important to note that Bingle didn't push on Vander in any substantive way other than threatening to hammer him if he got to E-1.

Vander has also been absent for large stretches of the game, gave a weak (and in my mind, implausible) reason for not reading/responding to anything in the hood, and just doesn't feel interested in solving this game. His push on me effectively amounts to "I don't think you're scumreading me in good faith", and I think an honest townie in his shoes would have to recognize he's a viable scum candidate, especially if they share townreads on some of the other players.

It's not just about me being a viable scum candidate, it's the reasoning for your reads.

You're talking now about your reason for suspecting my Marci vote being that you think my case on bingle was better than my case on Marci, and therefore I should have been voting bingle (despite the fact that you asked me this question at the time and I said I thought Marci was more scummy but that I wasn't sure) but for most of the game you have been trying to phrase it as it not making sense that I would vote into the 6p pool at all, given what I said about voting into the 3p pool. It took about three responses from me detailing why that stance from you is garbage before you dropped that line, but you haven't acknowledged that at all, you've just pivoted your case on my Marci vote to something different but still "bad" about my vote.
This is why I don't think your case on me is genuine, I'm getting no sense at all of you reevaluating me in any way. There's a difference between saying my posts have sounded scummy or whatever, which would be a wrong read but would at least be a reasonable perspective, and saying shit like me not posting in the neighborhood chat being scummy and the 6p pool vote being scummy when these are things that are obviously objectively wrong from glancing at the other game of this roleset that I played AND have been explained to you why they're wrong many times.

[Vanderscamp]

Assuming N_M scum we're left with:

Dunnstral
Hopkirk
marcistar

Vanderscamp's ISO doesn't lend itself well to being allied with N_M imo. Ping me if you disagree.

I don't think Dunn opens the way he did if he's scum with N_M. Too blatant.

I’m extremely bad at reading Dunnstral. If you can explain how he thinks and plays as scum, and why he wouldn’t be bold like that, feel free to enlighten me.

Dunn likes to low effort as both alignments ime. Calling out a partner as sus while voting one of the other people in the pool is something that is going to inevitably look bad and without the context of the last game it isn't a safe assumption we'll solve in the 6p first.

Is Dunn capable of being bold like that? Sure. Would Dunn actually draw late game attention to himself for a throwaway RVS vote? I don't think so, when he very much prefers to take the back seat and passively manipulate the thread.

NM being in the group of 3 is an anomoly. Is it because the deep scum is in the pool of 6 and NM is the other scum, or because they want to miselim NM in the smaller group?

VOTE: Bingle

This has serious reasoning on 1/3 of the small pool and a vote on a different 1/3 of the small pool.

If N_M flips scum, Dunn looks weird for having posted it and there's nothing to gain from having posted it. There's really nothing more that can be elaborated on there. Either you agree with the thought or you don't.

To his credit, Vanderscamp himself called this out as pretty bizarre/awkward reasoning to conclude a town!Dunn on a scum!N_M. The question is if scum!Bingle is more likely to dress up a fake anti-associative TR like this on a buddy or a townie.

In my mind, and especially in this set up where Bingle has to assume a serious risk of going down early this game, scum don't want to fake reasons to townread their buddies this way, especially if their buddy isn't playing hard to be read as obvious town. I think it's generally more likely he didn't want conflict with Dunn or to dress up a fake scumread, and so instead he backwards justified a townread on town, while maybe giving himself an angle to push Dunn if N_M flipped town.

I obviously agree that this is a very awkward read, I don't agree that they can't be scum together from this
I think scum are in general more likely to give more genuine sounding reads on town they know are town, and less genuine sounding reads on scum they know are not town, and this is pretty obviously not a genuine read.
Last game I'm pretty sure both scum never pushed each other and gave fairly weak reasons to justify that.

[Vanderscamp]

did bingle also not push on anyone else..? or was it only vanderscamp?

on this, I should clarify - I don't think Bingle's associatives with Vanderscamp are damning in and of themselves, or that they only apply to Vander (he treated me much the same way, ignoring giving a substantial defense or a push). Rather I just mean to note that you can't clear Vander in the way you can clear Hopkirk. Bingle also hard defended Marci/Lukewarm to defuse their wagons which makes me think they're less likely buddies as well.

How is bingle diffusing the wagon of someone in the 6p pool an indication of being town?

I'm not evaluating bingle's actions under the assumption that he knew he was dying since I don't think it was obvious at all that we were going to kill into the small pool.

[Vanderscamp]

one last point on why I don't find Vanders' scumread on me genuine - he says I'm pushing him in bad faith, but who else does he think I *should* be pushing? If he's town and absent any other major scumreads (which is currently a fair assumption IMO given that he hasn't really pushed anyone else since his Bingle vote mid D1), how does he conclude that I'm scum solely on the basis of me pushing him? If he's not scumreading anyone else, who else would he expect me to push? He's already stated Hopkirk/Luke town on Bingle scumflip and that he TRs Marci on the basis of pool spec.

So from his point of view, the only possible scum are me and Dunn, and he's calling me scum (as opposed to Dunn) solely because he can't imagine that a town!me would scumread him. Terrible reasoning and I have to think he's better than that as town

Firstly I don't think at all the the "only possible scum" are you and Dunn.
I do think your townread on Dunn is poor, but even if I didn't, I've said already that I don't scumread you because you think I'm scum, I think hopkirk is still probably town even though he voted me. I think you're scummy because I don't think you believe your reasons for pushing on me, which has nothing to do with how I think you should be reading anyone else in the game.

[Vanderscamp]

I'm gonna keep 1v1ing I guess cause none of y'all else want to post I suppose

I don't think that the 3p scum is anything close to a lost cause in this setup given the number of people who are happy to kill into the big pool first.
I also pushed bingle before he got suspicion iirc

This is a pretty fundamental disagreement between us I think. If we had mis-elimmed in the big pool, I'm pretty sure the correct call after that would be to lim (up to) twice in the small pool to at least take a 66% chance of hitting scum with a F5 as worst case scenario. So in my mind, scum team is playing this entire game around losing the 3p scum member, even prior to gamestart in how they divide the pools.

Do you disagree with me on that? This ^ has been centrally driving how I've been evaluating players the entire game.

Here's what I think is the most recent comment
viewtopic.php?p=12738362#p12738362

I notice here you said:

I do bus occasionally, I actually bussed a couple of partners in a recent game, but when I do this I do it because I think the cred is worth it.

And now here in this game, your first and primary defense for why you should be seen as town is arguing that you are the reason that Bingle got eliminated. I think the cred for bussing in this setup, where (as I just said) you can presume 3p scum is very likely going to go down, is absolutely better than having awkward associations with your buddy.

You may think my case against Marci was weaker than my bingle case, that's fine!
Eventually I did too when bingle didn't respond very well to what I had to say about him.
I don't think I was on Marci particularly long during the period when I scumread both of them because I remember voting bingle when he did react badly to what I had to say.

Again you're twisting my words here - it's not solely that your case against Marci was weak, it's that your case against Marci was weak

combined with

the fact that you had said you had reads in the 3p and argued previously that 3p limming was mathematically comparable/better to limming in 6p.

And I don't actually agree that town should be scumhunting in both threads.
Why is the neighborhood chat worth scumhunting in, how is it not just strictly worse than posting in the thread?
What benefit is there to a chat that potentially gets relayed to 100% of the scum and a fraction of the town?

But luckily you don't need to take my word for it that I believe this, you can look at the past game of this where I also did not read the neighborhood chat.

Because scum is posting in the neighborhood and if you're concerned that I am scum it's odd that you don't bother to respond (let alone READ) at all to how I could be manipulating people in there. I checked your activity over the night phase and saw that while you hadn't posted site wide during the night phase, you had signed into the site around 10 hours before thread open. My belief is that a townie should at least be somewhat interested in what's been discussed in the hood after the Bingle flip. It's fair that you never posted in the hood in the past game, but I would say that:

a) this game has a pretty fundamental difference in that the main thread was locked after the D1 elim (which never occurred in the last game) and
b) it's still bad/anti-town play to not post in there and express your thoughts on discussion in the game, at bare minimum it's not transparent and a reason to be suspicious. Everyone else has posted in there.

I don't understand how you get to that conclusion in your first paragraph.
If we miskill into the big pool, and then twice into the small pool (although I have no idea why it would become correct to then and only then kill into the small pool) scum wins as soon as the small pool scum becomes outed.

As said I don't think the 3p scum is dead if the meta is to kill into the big pool, there is also a pretty large middle ground between awkward interactions and pushing bingle as hard as I did.

I'm not twisting your words, your analysis of me voting Marci just doesn't make any sense.
I obviously had reads on the 3p pool, last game I also had reads on the 3p pool and I still chose to vote into the 6p pool because I am just interested in voting my top scum.
It's possible you genuinely somehow don't understand my progression so I'll outline it again:

1) I develop a scumread on Marci
2) I vote Marci
3) I develop a scumread on bingle that is weaker than my scumread on bingle
4) not very long after I vote Marci, bingle responds poorly to a question I ask him about my scumread on him
5) bingle becomes a stronger scumread than Marci
6) I vote bingle


What step of that process doesn't make sense?




I also don't give a shit about what you think bad town play is.
You have yet to give me a single reason why the neighborhood chat is not strictly worse than posting in the thread.
It is not a thing that it is less transparent for me to be posting my thoughts here where everyone can see them vs posting in a chat that all of the scum and only some of the town can read.

[Vanderscamp]

for most of the game you have been trying to phrase it as it not making sense that I would vote into the 6p pool at all, given what I said about voting into the 3p pool

That's not really true, maybe I happened to phrase it that way at the start of my case today on D2 but it should be clear from my question on D1 that I've suspected this on the basis of me not understanding why your vote didn't align with the reads you gave. The fact that you had indicated that you disagreed with the thread notion of limming 6p first is just the cherry on top

Is this a troll?

[Vanderscamp]

Specifically the last sentence

[Vanderscamp]

I really don't think Lukewarm is likely, all the twilight posting would be hard to do in real time knowing Bingle scumflip was imminent, including posts in our hood between thread lock and flip.

I posted this in our hood and Vander ignored it in favor of not posting at all over the entirety of the night phase, here it is for your viewing pleasure N_M:

I think Vanders' progression on Bingle is quite awkward

in 230 he votes marcistar, despite the fact that he claimed to believe we should eliminate in the 3p. (I still maintain that despite posting a handful of times about eliminating in the 3p, Vanderscamp did not seem to actually care about eliminating in the 3p, especially when most players had suggested that we shouldn't).

He then quotes Bingle posts from prior to 230, in his 231 and 233 he quotes Bingle's 212 and 219, then concludes in 235 that he thinks Bingle is scummier than N_M and that he thinks nEE is town. If that's the case, given that he thinks 3p was a better odds to hit scum and he's townreading one of the 3p, why was he voting elsewhere? I called this out in my post 236 and got a very short 238 in reply, which I didn't sense Vanders genuinely believed given that he spent more time discussing Bingle than marcistar.

Then the progression from question -> I don't like your answer -> vote (in 255, 262, 263) feels like where the decision to bus comes in. Despite scumreading and voting (!) Bingle, Vanders claims he got "nothing" out of Bingle v Hopkirk in 329 - I feel a townie who was voting Bingle as their primary SR there would have had more to say.

I also still agree with my own 469 and I don't think Vanderscamp understood my point nor addressed it in a satisfying way. My point wasn't that he wasn't aware of the pools once he posted, my point was "I was gonna say it's not S-S until I remembered [emphasis mine] it couldn't be" betrays a lack of critical thought or care about the pools when analyzing interactions. I haven't once forgotten who was in which pool this game, because it's centrally important to determining who scum is. Vanders post implied that he did, which I find hard to believe coming from town.

I also think Bingle's openwolf 477 may have been meant to scare us away from a Vander wagon.

This is responding to the first half of what you said

[Vanderscamp]

A) I don't think the bingle kill would have happened without me.
I was continually calling out the stuff he was saying that made no sense, and I was essentially the only person who was defending killing into the 3p pool, I was speaking up to argue that killing there is not a bad idea when people were suggesting it was. Not possible for you to know since you've never played with me but I generally avoid bussing, I've commented on this on other games on this site.

Ok, but you understand that the nature of this setup encourages the 6p scum to look as good as possible on the 3p scum's flip, correct? If I were scum I'd certainly be pushing my buddy to make myself look town on his/her flip, especially once it was clear they were getting suspicion.

Can you also link me to those comments?

B) I thought they were both fairly scummy and iirc didn't feel super strongly about either. When I thought bingle became more scummy I voted him. If your reasoning was that the vote was toothless, why were you talking about the different pools and which of them I was voting into?

Because from where I'm sitting:
- You made an argument about why eliminating in the 3p should not be disregarded and if anything was actually slightly better odds to hit scum
- You gave plenty of reasons for suspecting Bingle and had nEE down as a townread
- You instead voted in the 6p for reasons I saw as comparatively much weaker, which seems incongruent with both of the above

C) I don't care if scum posts there or not, there's no reason to post anything of value in that hood that we can't post in the thread instead.

My point is that town should be scumhunting in both threads, and you ignoring me in the hood overnight feels more likely to be scum ignoring conflict/posting until they have to, rather than town just completely ignoring game relevant content.

Here you are still talking about voting into the different pools

[Vanderscamp]

There's a difference between saying my posts have sounded scummy or whatever, which would be a wrong read but would at least be a reasonable perspective, and saying shit like me not posting in the neighborhood chat being scummy and the 6p pool vote being scummy when these are things that are obviously objectively wrong from glancing at the other game of this roleset that I played AND have been explained to you why they're wrong many times.

I think you're scummy because I don't think you believe your reasons for pushing on me, which has nothing to do with how I think you should be reading anyone else in the game.

All you've discussed in your defense is why you think my reasons for scumreading you are wrong. It's quite a leap to then argue that this means I must not believe in them. Do you have any reasons for thinking I don't

believe

in my scumread on you, even if you (obviously) disagree with points I'm making? Which points specifically do you think a town!me would not believe in?

I've already said this multiple times

[Vanderscamp]

I think scum are in general more likely to give more genuine sounding reads on town they know are town, and less genuine sounding reads on scum they know are not town, and this is pretty obviously not a genuine read.
Last game I'm pretty sure both scum never pushed each other and gave fairly weak reasons to justify that.

We agree the read on Dunn isn't genuine but I think if scum!Bingle is making a disingenuous read on scum!Dunn he's going to be more careful about how blatantly disingenuous it would look on his flip. We actually have this is evidence of how Bingle thinks, because that's what he was trying to argue a scum!Dunn paired with scum!N_M

wasn't trying to do

.

Also, last game scum autolost on D1, so that seems to indicate they played the game poorly, don't ya think?

Not that it particularly matters, but I think Pooky played quite poorly and the other scum played fine and was dragged down by his partner.

Do you think bingle played well this game?
Because unless you do, why are you asking me that question?

[Vanderscamp]

How is bingle diffusing the wagon of someone in the 6p pool an indication of being town?

Same philosophy as in my other replies to you here -

given that scum know scum!Bingle in this game is more likely than the average scum player in an average setup to be eliminated

, I believe it's less likely he'd stick his neck out for a buddy in an obvious way unless he absolutely needed to. Maybe Lukewarm was getting close to that point, which is why I'm not completely clearing him as town, but Marci wasn't. Combined with independent reasons to TR each player, it makes the altogether odds that scum!Bingle is paired with either of them fairly low IMO, in my experience scum will often position themselves against early popular wagons to try to give them things to argue about and feel like they're sorting - you can get a fair amount of D1 towncred from defending actual town. As I also said earlier, it looks more to me like a pocket on Lukewarm.

Sure, but you can use the same logic as you are using about last game:
Last game, whoever the 3p scum was (I don't remember his name) did not do a very efficient job of diffusing the Pooky wagon, he just waffled on it and remained neutral and ultimately town decided pooky was very scummy and we killed him and won.
Why wouldn't bingle adjust to this failure and then decide to try harder to prevent a D1 autoloss?

Fwiw I don't think you are actually scummy from these bingle-dependent arguments because they make some sense and I see where you're coming from, I just don't really agree with the conclusions and think you're putting way too much weight on wifom.

[Vanderscamp]

but for most of the game you have been trying to phrase it as it not making sense that I would vote into the 6p pool at all

In fact, this is actually a pretty significant misrep the more I think about it and I have the receipts:

do you think marcistar is scummier than bingle?

Here's what I posted when I first felt it was suspicious that Vander gave a bunch of reasons for suspecting Bingle but voted marcistar instead. It's clear that I find it weird that he's voting marcistar

as opposed to Bingle

, said nothing about the pools.

Here's where I start really reiterating a push/case on him:

The strongest/most meaningful content he's posted has been about Bingle, his questionable reasoning about both the Dunn & Norway slots, but it's rather easy for me to imagine that content being either a) scum!Vanders jumping on a townie making illogical/reachy assertions without justifying why those assertions indicate

scum

alignment or b) scum!Vanders distancing/bussing a buddy!Bingle. He's also just holistically been pretty inactive this game, he hasn't bothered to fight harder against the thread consensus to eliminate in the 6p despite his strongest SR being Bingle, and he hasn't taken a lead or a stake in substantially building nor defusing any wagons.

Note that I've said nothing about Vander's attitude about the pools prior to this post. Now look at what I am saying - what's weird is that "he hasn't bothered to fight harder against thread consensus to eliminate in the 6p

DESPITE HIS STRONGEST SR BEING BINGLE

". Again, referring to the fact that his posts are all centered around Bingle being scummy to him, having reasons to suspect Bingle.

But look at how Vander twists the argument in his reply to defend himself:

It's also ridiculous to say that

I haven't pushed harder against killing into the big pool

, I have probably said more than any other player in this game about which pool is better to kill into

He drops the most important part of my point ("Bingle is your strongest SR, why were you a)voting Marcistar and b)not trying to get people to lim Bingle instead") and shifts the entire discussion to instead being about how he argued for limming in the 3p in the general sense. It's a misrep to make my argument different than what it was.

On D2, I did phrase it poorly:

in 230 he votes marcistar, despite the fact that he claimed to believe we should eliminate in the 3p. (I still maintain that despite posting a handful of times about eliminating in the 3p, Vanderscamp did not seem to actually care about eliminating in the 3p, especially when most players had suggested that we shouldn't).

I have a bit of mea cupla on this one, it does read less focused on the oddness of his votes/play regarding who he wants to eliminate, and more about the general 6p/3p discussion. But even here, you can see what I'm trying to say despite the poor phrasing - I'm saying he "did not seem to care about eliminating in the 3p" because of my prior memory that he gave reasons to scumread Bingle yet voted marcistar, and then when he did switch to Bingle he disappeared for quite a long time IRL and came back and barely pushed it (SEE 329).

But now suddenly, this amounts to Vander saying that "most of the game" I've been phrasing it as not making sense about voting in 6p? Nuh uh. What didn't make sense was voting marcistar, specifically after giving reasons why your vote should have been on Bingle. The secondary point is that you can't use the argument about us limming in the 6p as a defense, because you already have a well-documented belief that voting in the 3p was fine.

I stopped reading after the first line of this, hopefully you can agree from the parts of your posts I bolded several posts ago that it is not a misrep to say that you were saying it was suspicious that I voted into the 6p pool at all.
You did do it a little less than I had remembered but you were still clearly doing it.

[Vanderscamp]

Firstly I don't think at all the the "only possible scum" are you and Dunn.

also on this,

I'm not seeing why town!Vander would feel the need to disagree with this. In his own words:

I read Marci as town from the meta about which pool she would be in despite reading her content as scummy.
I think I like lukewarm now,

like that was a self-hammer since you made the vote knowing that NM was going to vote you. if this flips town then i'm pissed and you've lost the respect i had for you as a player before this. the amount of self-hammers i see from town ruining a good half of my games is pissing me off.

I think given scum bingle this was a very towny comment from hopkirk btw

I also think given scum bingle the stuff lukewarm was saying about flipping bingle to confirm the validity of his reads if he's town is towny

Because, very obviously, I don't think it's impossible that my town reads are wrong.

[Vanderscamp]

you can't just townread people when it's convenient to townread them but then say you're not looking at the other players by POE. If they're town they're town and you should be willing to put your foot in the ground there. I would say I'm literally never voting Hopkirk or marcistar this game at this point, doesn't feel like you'd commit to the same?

I'm not saying I'm not looking at other players by PoE, I'm saying it's not impossible that people outside the PoE are scum.

And no, I won't commit to that.
Particularly Marci who I still think does not read as towny in any way, the only reason I am townreading her is the meta of the pool stuff which I do believe is probably accurate.
I'd be very surprised if I vote hopkirk this game but he is not lock clear either.

[Vanderscamp]

He has repeatedly brought up the fact that Vanderscamp voted Marci as a reason to scum read him, which also seems off to me. The main issue here, is that this is exactly how Vanders handled the first game. He made the same argument about the math of voting in each pool, made the same conclusion that it was really just best to vote for the scummiest person regardless of pool, then he voted in the 6p pool. - So why is GL taking this to be scum indicative
-Also, at the time multiple people said that marci seemed scummy, including 2 people with experience with scum!marci (both of which have been confirmed town, so scum reading Marci at that point in the day was clearly not a scum only trait)

Because Vander gave NO good reasons for scumreading Marci, and plenty of good reasons to scumread Bingle! Then he votes Marci and I've not understood why the entire game. See 236.

I still think my reasons to scumread Marci were good atm despite thinking she is probably town.
She was here and actively declining to provide real content and she gave a response to something that I don't remember that read as pretty awkward that I still think reads as awkward.

[Vanderscamp]

He has repeatedly brought up the fact that Vanderscamp voted Marci as a reason to scum read him, which also seems off to me. The main issue here, is that this is exactly how Vanders handled the first game. He made the same argument about the math of voting in each pool, made the same conclusion that it was really just best to vote for the scummiest person regardless of pool, then he voted in the 6p pool. - So why is GL taking this to be scum indicative
-Also, at the time multiple people said that marci seemed scummy, including 2 people with experience with scum!marci (both of which have been confirmed town, so scum reading Marci at that point in the day was clearly not a scum only trait)

Because Vander gave NO good reasons for scumreading Marci, and plenty of good reasons to scumread Bingle! Then he votes Marci and I've not understood why the entire game. See 236.

Here's where I start really reiterating a push/case on him:

The strongest/most meaningful content he's posted has been about Bingle, his questionable reasoning about both the Dunn & Norway slots, but it's rather easy for me to imagine that content being either a) scum!Vanders jumping on a townie making illogical/reachy assertions without justifying why those assertions indicate

scum

alignment or b) scum!Vanders distancing/bussing a buddy!Bingle. He's also just holistically been pretty inactive this game, he hasn't bothered to fight harder against the thread consensus to eliminate in the 6p despite his strongest SR being Bingle, and he hasn't taken a lead or a stake in substantially building nor defusing any wagons.

Note that I've said nothing about Vander's attitude about the pools prior to this post. Now look at what I am saying - what's weird is that "he hasn't bothered to fight harder against thread consensus to eliminate in the 6p

DESPITE HIS STRONGEST SR BEING BINGLE

". Again, referring to the fact that his posts are all centered around Bingle being scummy to him, having reasons to suspect Bingle.

But look at how Vander twists the argument in his reply to defend himself:

It's also ridiculous to say that

I haven't pushed harder against killing into the big pool

, I have probably said more than any other player in this game about which pool is better to kill into

He drops the most important part of my point ("Bingle is your strongest SR, why were you a)voting Marcistar and b)not trying to get people to lim Bingle instead") and shifts the entire discussion to instead being about how he argued for limming in the 3p in the general sense. It's a misrep to make my argument different than what it was.

Also, very much dislike this post. He is accusing Vanders of twisting the argument, but then makes an argument that is fundamentally not true.

He says "Bingle is your strongest SR, why were you a)voting Marcistar and b)not trying to get people to lim Bingle instead"

When Vanders voted Marci, he had not once said that anything Bingle had done was scummy. So where is this idea coming from?

He votes Marci in post 230. In post 238 he says that Marci is scummier then Bingle, followed by 4 posts in a row (in his ISO) where he presses on his Marci scum read (post 239, post 243, post 244, post 249.

Then he asks Bingle a question, and really does not like his answer (post 262) and immediately moves his vote to Bingle (post 263).

But for some reason, Guilty Lion keeps saying that he scum read Bingle over Marci, and I just do not see that in his ISO at all

I guess I should have read this, because you're right in that it's complete crap

At NO POINT did I ever have my vote on Marci when bingle was my top scumread.

If by saying this GL is trying to say my strongest scumread in his opinion, sure, but that's an extremely misleading way to phrase that

[Vanderscamp]

It is

incontrovertible fact

that in the sequence of posts from 229 to 235, Vanderscamp votes Marci for very poor/shitty reasons, and meanwhile gives solid to great reasons to scumread Bingle. I have not once bought this game that his vote on Marcistar was because he

genuinely

thought she was

more likely

to flip red than Bingle,

especially once you take the pools into account

, which we KNOW Vander wanted to do. That is the clearest summation of this point that I can give, and what my case has been the entire game.

If you thought that my reasons against bingle were solid to great, why did you not mention that fact at any point before he flipped scum?

[Vanderscamp]

I don't believe his Marci vote was genuine, the fact that it lasted less than 12 hours is just further evidence for that point.

I am hunting to make a scum case on him, because I think he is scum! I've already sorted Hopkirk/Marci to my utmost satisfaction, and I'm comfortable thinking you are green enough for today and likely would still bet the game on you being town. So that leaves me with Dunn/Vander, and people are just blindly townreading Vander and I need to put a massive dent in it because I am going to be pissed if he skates to endgame with how little scumhunting he's done and his passive vote history he's built over this entire game.

How the fuck is me not leaving my vote on Marci for a long time after I made my case on bingle and he reacted badly further evidence for the point???
what the hell length of time would not be "further evidence" given my Marci scum read happened before the bingle one?

[Vanderscamp]

there's some takes from vanders in the last days i didn't really like but i am too tired to reread properly
Luke is openwolfing super hard and i want that to flip scum but am not sure if it did. need to look back at d1 a looooot more there
i think GL went up a bit but i need to reread d1
dunn isn't posting

we're at the point where 1 correct TR from the pool should be the POE win which is nice. idk why people are trying to take this quickly. we have what, 2 week deadlines at a guess? i don't see any reason not to drag this out for up to 40 days. that way even if scum win they still

suffer

Why is he openwolfing?
Because I agree with basically everything he has said the last day, although I'm probably pretty biased because it's him shitting on the case against me

[Vanderscamp]

This is what town!Bingle said in the last game:

I think Pooky/Infinity thinks that Pooky is the stronger scumplayer.

I think that Pooky/skitter thinks that both of them are strong enough to duck an elim.

Basically, I think the scum in the 6p is someone that has a higher opinion of their own scumgame than infinity or someone confident that they can get multiple miselims in that pool. I don't think a scumteam containing Vanders is confident that they can pull of multiple eliminations in that pool given the sum total of 3 completed games in the last three years Vanders has under his belt and the fact that he would definitely have a partner who could tell him that.

I'll be back to finish my thoughts in a while.

which is actually kinda funny given my read on Vanders in this game, but it definitely shows he's of the opinion that 6p scum would likely be stronger than 3p scum. There's a few posts earlier in his ISO (which don't quote quite as succinctly as this one) where he makes similar reads about 6p scum needing to be confident to duck a few eliminations. Does he reverse that belief for this game after he rolls scum? Frankly I don't know if anyone in this lobby could claim a stronger scumgame than Bingle based on past experience other than myself/Hopkirk/Dunn, but I know it's not me and I still strongly doubt Bingle-Hopkirk was S-S

Pretty interested to know how this affects your read of me

[Vanderscamp]

Pretty interested to know how this affects your read of me

I actually do think it lowers your scum equity somewhat and I'll use this as an opportunity to give you another olive branch, because I'm really not interested in continuing to relitigate the same points against you and your same defenses against them.

You keep making claims that I don't believe in my scumread on you, I think it should be pretty evident that I do. I've also explained several times why I'm townreading Hopkirk, marcistar, and Lukewarm to the point where I have no interest in voting them unless it got to literally F3 and I had to rethink the whole game. So that leaves me with two candidates left and I find your play to be altogether scummier than Dunn's, and it also looks to me like if you are scum, you are trying a lot harder to

win the game

than a hypothetical scum!Dunn is.

If you are town, and you were to know for a fact that I am town, who would you be looking at here? Because from where I'm sitting Bingle and marci were your only real scumreads yesterday, you haven't committed to any other scumreads today besides arguing with me saying I must be scum because you don't like my case on you, and yet you won't even commit to solid townreads elsewhere to help yourself POE. Part of my goal is to make sure you can't possibly avoid my potential flip today with any semblance of town credit because I see scum!you as the biggest potential threat in this game and I've played very hard to try to ensure that scum!you won't win. If you're really town and I'm flipped today you should have no shot to live through endgame and that means effectively one more chance to identify scum. and I really don't see you caring about that at all, it has felt to me like your priority is to win a 1v1 and survive today.

Ok, sure.

My ranking would be
Hopkirk
Marci
Lukewarm
Dunn

Marci and lukewarm are fairly close.

I think the people who look the best from their interactions with Bingle yesterday are Hopkirk and Lukewarm.
I think they both said pretty genuine-sounding things at EoD yesterday that are pretty unlikely to come from being partners with bingle. Marci was the only person other than myself and the small pool who actually voted bingle at EoD, which is good but not clearing, but better than Dunn. I think hopkirk has sounded much better than lukewarm overall, because there have been a bunch of things lukewarm has said that I've thought have been suspicious that I've commented on, but with hopkirk there really haven't been. I think lukewarm has also sounded pretty towny at times, namely his bingle posts at eod and a stretch of posts where he was responding to someone's (hopkirk's?) case against him. I think Dunn has done essentially nothing towny for the entire game and he'd pretty easily be my top scum of those four. I also think Marci has not actually sounded towny at pretty much any point this game but I do put a lot of weight in the pool meta stuff given how much bingle cared about it last game.

[Vanderscamp]

basically what I need is an explanation of who is Bingle's partner if it's not you. I really can't see Hopkirk at all. Marcistar would be an incredibly brave choice to put in the 6p. Lukewarm felt to me genuinely uninformed about Bingle's alignment and I think Bingle worked to pocket Lukewarm rather than save a buddy. So if it's not you then it's Dunn, and maybe we're eating ourselves up and ignoring the low WIM scum just coasting, but you haven't seemed interested in looking there at all and it's not clear to me why, especially given how cagey you've generally been with townreads.

I haven't been interested because I think you are scummier than Dunn.
Even if I am wrong and I'm misjudging you it should be pretty clear that that's the reason.

[Vanderscamp]

Is this a troll?

also, this is a really thoughtless response/accusation

like, if I'm scum, then these would be the best arguments that I believe I can make, and I would believe that pushing them will get you flipped without making me more likely to be flipped once you are miseliminated.

if I'm town, even if you think I'm bad/dumb town, then it's a genuine push and I'm not trolling.

in either universe, there's not really any world where I'm trolling. so what exactly are you suggesting here? You're just insulting me to discredit my arguments to try to make yourself look better, instead of actually sussing out whether you think it's AI or explaining why scum!me is making these points or even why they are wrong

and this is not an invitation to keep arguing with me, cause I don't think it's productive at this point

I thought it was pretty likely you weren't trolling, I just had no intention of trying to explain yet again that I was not against the notion of killing into the 6p pool.

[Vanderscamp]

We need to reach some form of consensus

you can't just say this while not putting any opinions down

100% agree

I'd be ok with killing dunn today

[Vanderscamp]

I don't know what to do to help improve town's chances if no one is really engaging with me other than Vander. Lukewarm do you really not find any of my points against him convincing at all?

Can you walk me through how you think scum in the 6p should play this game, especially if you don't see Vanders as scummy? You were thinking on D1 about how Bingle's play didn't make sense pushing eliminations off of marcistar and yourself, yet it doesn't feel like I can get you to think at all about how Vanders' play makes sense attempting to solidify towncred from scumreading and ultimately bussing his buddy. The fact that he said today that he "pushed Bingle hard" (do you agree that he did?) is also evidence for this. It's why I think he has far more scum equity than Dunn, Dunn isn't trying to survive at all or set himself up to endgame.

It's funny you say this; this last part was exactly my read on Pooky last game for the first half of the game (it was wrong)

[Vanderscamp]

I actually really don't like this point. Because in the context of the post, he was actively examing the interactions between me and marci, and running through the possibilities of that interaction, and then dismissed the possibility of s/s himself. The fact that he never suggested it in the thread makes me not suspicious for him over this. Once again, I see no reason to TR him for this, but it does not strike me as suspicious

I think I just wanna clarify this point, otherwise I find your post fair enough.

The argument I'm making is that he should have

already known

just from thinking about the game and playing from a town perspective, that marci/Luke cannot be a S-S interaction. I think it's far less likely that a townie wouldn't already have this in mind when reading two players in the same pool talking to each other. I'm basing this on my own mindset playing the game - once I internalized who was in each pool at gamestart, I have been intentionally reading every interaction across-pool with potential associatives in mind, and within-pool differently specifically

because

they could only be T-T or T-S. I even mentioned this in one of my own posts 273.

So when he says,

Was going to say it didn't feel like a S/S interaction from them before I

remembered

that isn't possible anyway.

it registers on my bullshit radar. A townie should not have 'forgotten' that it was impossible. I can't grok or empathize with that at all.

To me, this feels like scum making things up to simulate a fictional thought process. I don't buy it as an authentic one. I find it remarkably hard to imagine that town!Vanderscamp was reading conversation between two players in the same pool and not already aware that it cannot be a S-S interaction.

Have you at any point this game "forgotten" who was in each pool and who could or couldn't be potentially aligned?

I gave what I feel is an equivalent example earlier:
Imagine you're getting caught up with the thread after a flip, and you read a post by a dead player.
You gain a read on something that player said, and then you realize that that player is actually dead.
I've done this both when I was fully aware at the start of the post that that player was dead, and also when I wasn't.
I might have phrased it poorly but that was the sentiment I was trying to convey.

Do you think that that example is different somehow, or is this something that has never happened to you?

[Vanderscamp]

I just don't understand why scum!Dunn would be playing so lackadaisically, it's been a long time since I've seen scum!Dunn and I think the past few times I did play with him as scum he was in a hydra, but this is just super lazy play if he is scum here. Do you all think he really just says he's "unsure" about Bingle (in my convo with him in the hood) and nothing more if he's buddies?

I do think in a vacuum, Dunn or Hopkirk would be most likely 6p scum with Bingle 3p scum by pool-spec, and I still think Hopkirk is locktown. But that's about the best point I would have for scum!Dunn, and I'm always gonna be more paranoid about the players that seem like they're explicitly trying to stay alive

Why is he just saying he's unsure on bingle not indicative of them being partners?
I don't understand that read at all.

[Vanderscamp]

Do you think that that example is different somehow, or is this something that has never happened to you?

yah I don't know if I've ever read posts without checking and knowing who has been flipped already, when I'm playing as either alignment. so I guess I just don't empathize with you here

I'm talking about the situations where you do know who died, but as you're reading a post of a dead player you temporarily forget this fact and get a read on what you're looking at because you're thinking more about the content of what you're reading.

[Vanderscamp]

This is by no means a slam-dunk scum tell but I also did notice in his past scumgame, he made a very similar post to one he made in this game:

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12647731

I'm not getting anything from the flea/mena discussion

Also of importance is that Mena was his scumbuddy here.

What do we see in this game?

I got nothing at all out of the bingle/hopkirk exchange

have not found a similar post in his town ISOs yet, claiming to receive nothing useful out of other players arguing/discussing, but I haven't done a full deep dive.

I'm absolutely certain I have said this as town on this site.
When you say you haven't done a full deep dive, does that mean you haven't looked at all?

[Vanderscamp]

but this is just super lazy play if he is scum here. Do you all think he really just says he's "unsure" about Bingle (in my convo with him in the hood) and nothing more if he's buddies?

I do think in a vacuum, Dunn or Hopkirk would be most likely 6p scum with Bingle 3p scum by pool-spec, and I still think Hopkirk is locktown. But that's about the best point I would have for scum!Dunn, and I'm always gonna be more paranoid about the players that seem like they're explicitly trying to stay alive

im not really sure if dunnstrals scum but i want him to come carry or else ill keep worrying about him


848 im so confused.. do u think he would do that when hes done it before.. wouldnt that be too obvious?

VOTE: vanderscamp
i think this is the one ill feel bestest about but im not 100% confident sadly

I really do not like your middle line (the one defending me)

[Vanderscamp]

damn I didn't know there was a book out there on scum!GL meta, though I don't think any of it is wrong haha

I think you gave a decent case for town!Vanders, given that I really can't seem to get any traction with either you or Luke on this read makes me think my perspective is probably biased/tunneled from my unique position of knowing my own alignment while being off wagon, suspecting that scum would be more likely bussing than not in this setup especially given how D1 ended with both NM/nEE pushing Bingle. The point about not tactically giving himself outs I think is the best one and definitely something I have been undervaluing. The weakest aspect of my case/read is that it relies a lot on an assumption that Vanders played most of D1 around a plan to bus Bingle, but I still do feel his ISO really doesn't have any notable towniness to me in it and so the case for town is almost solely because he voted Bingle - even Vander has basically said as much. Since you looked at some of his past games, do you share any of my feeling that he comes across more solve-y in his town games?

I also think Dunn just feels like the easy compromise elimination at any point this game, so I'm both not really worried about scum!Dunn winning here and makes me think he's the easiest miselimination for scum today if town.

p-edit: cause I don't like joking without answering and at the time I thought Bingle's questioning towards where the bit about nEE meta came from was fair. You have to remember I didn't know who was scum/town between you, like that was always going to feel immensely more obvious in your shoes, and so I was trying to weigh how things look given a town!Bingle

- Hectic is amazing, so when i saw he subbed in and started giving reasons to sus you i'd have to be an idiot not to scour through the thread and gather up meta that's going to be better than anything i'd get on a skim
- i haven't actually read your case on vanders. this is part of why i didn't post yesterday and wanted to wait until i could look a little more in depth at it tbh, i looked and thought 'i'd need to read that all very closely to sort either/both of Vanders/GL from it and i'm not up for that atm'. i should be able to get to it shortly unless i get too tired
- i haven't read the other games in all that much depth. from what i've skimmed/have read i've seen towngames with very high WIM (last iterating of DiC notably) compared to something like this (https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... ct[]=20412) which feels lower WIM. don't think i currently have a good enough picture to conclude for definite on it.
btw on the bussing thing, vanders votes Menal (partner) relatively early on in their scumgame then backs off to a TR which definitely reads as different to the double down here, but also vanders is technically going to be aware of that and it's not as bad statwise as i initially assumed. if we assume one of me/Marci is never getting voted then it's still 40-50% that scum wins after a bus. Just need to survive a vote in a pool of 5 then 4 then 3 (comes out at 40% win and Bingle isn't guaranteed to die from that).

I think I've only been scum once on this site but consistently on my main other site that I play on I very much don't like bussing and pretty rarely do it.
I know I've talked about it in other games on this site, but I can link you stuff on the other site that will help confirm this.
Not saying it's 100% impossible for me to be with bingle here but if you want to think I'm scum here you need to argue that this would be a big deviation from my typical scum game because it is absolutely not true that this game would be consistent with it.

[Vanderscamp]

I can't remember ever faking a townslip, no. I just read through the occurrences of "townslip" in my post history and didn't find anything in Maf PTs or anything reminding me of past townslips of mine as either alignment. Honestly I'd say I'm generally a bit too proud to try to fake townslips for towncred, I feel more embarrassed about my lack of awareness about the setup more than anything

I do like this, it sounds genuine

[Vanderscamp]

I think I would kill Marci before Luke now btw

I don't get any sense of her putting any effort into analysis

[Vanderscamp]

My kill list is GL/Dunn/Marci

[Vanderscamp]

I think I like VOTE: Dunn

[Vanderscamp]

Why is he just saying he's unsure on bingle not indicative of them being partners?
I don't understand that read at all.

I just try to operate from an assumption that scum are going to be playing with intention and trying to win, and so when he just barely gives a comment on his hypothetical buddy when that buddy may be flipped strikes me as fundamentally bad/sub-optimal play, and therefore less likely to be scum

I think it's fair to question that at this point though, I might be making too many assumptions about what scum!Dunn would or wouldn't do. I'm gonna try to find time today to look through a few of his recent past scumgames, cause this is crossing the line into "play so uninspired you can't assume it comes from town either" territory at this point

I had the same read on the 6p scum last game, that they were just not trying at all to appear good, and that they would put in more effort if they actually were scum and there was pressure on them to do well in the big pool.
That read turned out to be wrong, obviously not the case that that read's never going to be right but I doubt the "pressure of being in the 6p pool" would apply to Dunn if it didn't apply to pooky.

[Vanderscamp]

IMO the wishy-washyness I'm seeing from Marci right now feels like scum

VOTE: marcistar

am iactually wishy washy-

My problem with your posts is not just the wishy washiness, I'm just not seeing any kind of real progressions or towny thought process coming from basically anything you're saying.

Like, the thing GL posted earlier when he noticed I said something this game that I said in a recent scum game and you asked "wouldn't that be too obvious?"

The fact that it was a pretty random comment that is not generally super memorable means that it is pretty clearly not "too obvious" if it did happen to be an actual tell from me, at least not something that anyone would discover unless they were pretty carefully ISOing me.

[Vanderscamp]

Your last post

fair enough

VOTE: Dunn

--- ---

I think I would kill Marci before Luke now btw

I don't get any sense of her putting any effort into analysis

well this is prob true but what specifically gives this?
im not

just

sheeping or anything, im voting people im comfortable with voting (idk if this makes sense but; i think im sheeping, but im not just doing it nobrainingly)

idk if im right about voting you, it might be a bit too unfair. you make me frustrated alot vanderscamp (so i might actually be a bit blinded), i cant tell 100% if its intentional, but my heads telling me its probably not. maybe its just i dont like how you keep calling me awkward, im really just doing this all naturally and not forcing anything at all, maybe we're just completely different people who dont see the same way. but even after that, i still wouldn't change my vote, because i like guiltylions reasoning
ur hard to read and scary

Spoiler:

the vote on u, i feel best about (which is why ill stick to it) the reason why this game is so hard for me is because i can see what other people are doing and it doesnt look all that scummy imo.. cant say the same for u sadly

-
i would probably have the very most biased opinion in this situation, but i just dont like ur suses rn.. like just standing back and looking at it and its but idk if what im seeing is dumb

--- ---

bros i cut my own hair imma cry

I'm sorry I'm making you frustrated, hopefully it should be pretty clear that it's not intentional on my part!

Can you talk more about what parts of GL's reasoning you like?
Because it is pretty easy to just say that, this is pretty much exactly what I'm talking about, you're not really saying anything about me or anyone else that is not either a sheep or just a blanket statement about whether someone is scummy or not.

[Vanderscamp]

sorry for less activity the past day or so - I should have a bit more time for the next few hours to play and chat in real time if anyone else is around. I did look through some of Dunn's recent scum and towngames but frankly I didn't spot any patterns that stood out to me or things that might help solve him in this game.

Overall, my latest feelings are:

- I have not wanted to admit it but I am wavering a bit in my confidence of the scumread of Vanders, I'm not sure if that's more due to waiting it out and just getting cold feet or due to both Lukewarm and Hopkirk pouring some water on the flames of that read. I still think he's best bet for scum by POE and my general philosophy of how scum is likely to play, as well as me still being stuck on the awkward "I remembered Marci/Luke can't be S-S" phrasing, but I'm like maybe 50% sure instead of 70-80%. I'm also a bit flummoxed that my response to Hopkirk about townslips was the thing that apparently changed his mind on me, but I can honestly see that coming from either alignment so I couldn't draw any AI conclusions from it, though I do think it's odd for his read to swing so drastically off of just that.

- Since I'm less sure of the Vander read I won't exactly cry today if Dunn is eliminated instead, but I still just don't really see a good reason to think he's scum other than him not really playing very hard. Like if Dunn is scum, you have to believe he didn't try to gain any towncred from scumreading/distancing/pushing Bingle, nor did he try especially hard to protect him, and you have to believe he's happy to give flippant low-effort posts in thread even when most players are casting suspicion his way. It's possible but it just doesn't feel like The One True Answer to me.

- I do see the wishy-washiness in marcistar's posting today that's being called out, the progression from being less trusting of me in 844 to sheeping me in 849 is a bit stilted. I intend to look over her newbie scum game that others mentioned previously as when I skimmed it a week or two ago I thought she played with more agenda there than she did here. I do weigh N_M's vote seriously, and I think if there's scum in the blind spot it'd be her, because I've grown more confident in town!Luke given some of his play today, and Hopkirk is still nigh conftown.

I do think my phrasing of the s/s thing was poor, but hopefully you understand the point that I was trying to convey with it.

You're still on my kill list but I don't think Dunn has been towny in any way and I think you have independently done more towny things than Dunn (as well as more scummy things) and the stuff about the townslips did sound pretty genuine so I'm willing to consider that my read on you is biased because I hate your accusation on me.

I'd kill you before Marci but Marci before luke or hopkirk, I still don't have a reason to doubt the bingle neighborhood analysis that looks good for Marci but the other two have actually sounded towny to me, while Marci has really not.

[Vanderscamp]

Here in a bit

[Vanderscamp]

Sorry, this weekend has been very busy.

I still think Dunn is the scummiest person, I think this progression is very weird and likely just sheeping the recent Marci scumreads

I reread Vanderscamp, not feeling like voting there

I don't want to vote for Marci or Guiltylion either

So for me it's Luke or hopkirk in the 6

VOTE: Hopkirk

IMO the wishy-washyness I'm seeing from Marci right now feels like scum

VOTE: marcistar

If it is not marci then I don't really know

[Vanderscamp]

@Vanders - can you towncase luke since i think you had him as your 2nd strongest TR

Yeah, I think his eod reactions around bingle were very towny.
I think his response to the extended accusation against him seemed pretty genuine too.

I think you and lukewarm both had much better interactions with Bingle than GL and Marci, who imo really have very little going for them regarding their in thread interactions with bingle, so I'd kill them both and feel pretty happy about it.

My biggest reason to not kill those two would be if I decided that GL was too towny, I do think he has seemed pretty towny once I took a step back from just looking at him push on me nonstop because he's putting in a lot more effort than I think would be necessary as scum on someone who I don't think is the most obvious push for him either. I could still be overestimating how good I look from pushing bingle but I think he could have easily just gone against Dunn instead.

I want to kill VOTE: marci because I think she has not been towny pretty much at any point this entire game, apart from her vote on bingle which did not come with a ton of associated pressure, and the logic about the pool setups on bingle's behalf, I don't have any reasons to think she's town and I don't think there's any way I would not use one of our two kills on her.

[Vanderscamp]

I think it's extremely likely I die here given who's currently voting me, if I do die I'd kill Marci in final three but I don't feel super confident on that.

Please make everyone who kills me here actually justify their reason for voting me, I still think I should be pretty obviously town given how hard I pushed on bingle D1. I think there's no chance he would have actually died without me both pushing on him as scummy and pushing back on the notion of killing into the small pool being a bad idea.
GL said something earlier about me being in a bad spot when I was pushing bingle but I was pushing both of these things before I got any votes D1. It's imo not good enough to vote me here as a sheep, we have two kills and I don't think I should be one of them.
I know I'm alienating the two people who are not currently voting me by saying this but I don't think my bingle push is worth less than anything Marci or GL have done this game.

[Vanderscamp]

maaaan I haaaate this gamestate

all three of {marci, vanders, GL} are gonna say/have said to elim the other two and it's really hard for me to tell whether marci/vanders are being disingenuous here because it's exactly what they likely would be saying as either alignment, and I'm struggling to figure out a way to solve in the two because it's a solo scum remaining and neither is notably poor as scum from what I can tell.

I do think Vanders' associatives with Bingle's are better than marci's, the main reason I was locked on him D2 is because I think his were almost

too

good and therefore more likely to be manufactured. But at the same time I can't help but feel marci was certainly more reluctant to vote Bingle, and Bingle also seemed more willing to vote Vanders than marci.

it gives me this uneasy feeling that something is terribly wrong with this game

I definitely think there's a nonzero chance that either Luke or hopkirk is scum, I don't think either of them is lock town.
I just played a game with hopkirk where a lot of the thread was pretty scummy, and hopkirk was sort of chilling and being aggressively null the entire time, but never really on anyone's radar because there were scummier people, so it wouldn't blow my mind if something similar is happening.

I do think this game is different because in that game he really had no good reactions regarding his partner (I'm not including his vote as a "good interaction") whereas here he does.

Since I do think you are towny I'm more happy with a "vote Marci and then evaluate" plan than just wanting to kill you both in either order, I'd be pretty unhappy with killing you today even if I somehow knew I wouldn't get killed tomorrow because Marci is someone who I don't feel super good about being scum, but she's just given me really no reason to actually read anything she's done this game as towny so it's going to be pretty hard to not kill her in a final three.

[Vanderscamp]

At work atm but should be kind of present

[Vanderscamp]

i'm sleeping now, can anyone case Marci as town or scum overnight to add to my thoughts?

I'll do both


I thought Marci was town because I think bingle believes strongly in the pool analysis and I'm not sure he would have wanted to put Marci in the big pool.
I think Marci is scummy because it's D3 and this is basically the only reason I have for reading her as town.
I think a lot of her reads don't have any obvious thought progression behind them, even though I really disagree with what GL was saying regarding me I could at least understand afterwards how he came to those conclusions, with Marci I don't see any reasoning that is obviously coming from a town mindset

[Vanderscamp]

maaaan I haaaate this gamestate

all three of {marci, vanders, GL} are gonna say/have said to elim the other two and it's really hard for me to tell whether marci/vanders are being disingenuous here because it's exactly what they likely would be saying as either alignment, and I'm struggling to figure out a way to solve in the two because it's a solo scum remaining and neither is notably poor as scum from what I can tell.

I do think Vanders' associatives with Bingle's are better than marci's, the main reason I was locked on him D2 is because I think his were almost

too

good and therefore more likely to be manufactured. But at the same time I can't help but feel marci was certainly more reluctant to vote Bingle, and Bingle also seemed more willing to vote Vanders than marci.

it gives me this uneasy feeling that something is terribly wrong with this game

I definitely think there's a nonzero chance that either Luke or hopkirk is scum, I don't think either of them is lock town.
I just played a game with hopkirk where a lot of the thread was pretty scummy, and hopkirk was sort of chilling and being aggressively null the entire time, but never really on anyone's radar because there were scummier people, so it wouldn't blow my mind if something similar is happening.

I do think this game is different because in that game he really had no good reactions regarding his partner (I'm not including his vote as a "good interaction") whereas here he does.

Since I do think you are towny I'm more happy with a "vote Marci and then evaluate" plan than just wanting to kill you both in either order, I'd be pretty unhappy with killing you today even if I somehow knew I wouldn't get killed tomorrow because Marci is someone who I don't feel super good about being scum, but she's just given me really no reason to actually read anything she's done this game as towny so it's going to be pretty hard to not kill her in a final three.

Curious about this. You say that neither me or hopkirk are "lock town," but that GL is towny?

How would you rank the 3 of us?

Hopkirk
Luke
GL
Marci


GL increasing in towniness generally over the last few irl days

[Vanderscamp]

@Vanders

Spoiler:

maaaan I haaaate this gamestate

all three of {marci, vanders, GL} are gonna say/have said to elim the other two and it's really hard for me to tell whether marci/vanders are being disingenuous here because it's exactly what they likely would be saying as either alignment, and I'm struggling to figure out a way to solve in the two because it's a solo scum remaining and neither is notably poor as scum from what I can tell.

I do think Vanders' associatives with Bingle's are better than marci's, the main reason I was locked on him D2 is because I think his were almost

too

good and therefore more likely to be manufactured. But at the same time I can't help but feel marci was certainly more reluctant to vote Bingle, and Bingle also seemed more willing to vote Vanders than marci.

it gives me this uneasy feeling that something is terribly wrong with this game

I definitely think there's a nonzero chance that either Luke or hopkirk is scum, I don't think either of them is lock town.
I just played a game with hopkirk where a lot of the thread was pretty scummy, and hopkirk was sort of chilling and being aggressively null the entire time, but never really on anyone's radar because there were scummier people, so it wouldn't blow my mind if something similar is happening.

I do think this game is different because in that game he really had no good reactions regarding his partner (I'm not including his vote as a "good interaction") whereas here he does.

Since I do think you are towny I'm more happy with a "vote Marci and then evaluate" plan than just wanting to kill you both in either order, I'd be pretty unhappy with killing you today even if I somehow knew I wouldn't get killed tomorrow because Marci is someone who I don't feel super good about being scum, but she's just given me really no reason to actually read anything she's done this game as towny so it's going to be pretty hard to not kill her in a final three.

Curious about this. You say that neither me or hopkirk are "lock town," but that GL is towny?

How would you rank the 3 of us?

Yeah, saw this but could not respond until now

[Vanderscamp]

I do think GL is towny, I have reasons to suspect everyone luke and below but I think overall there are more and better reasons to townread GL and above than to scumread them

Marci's the only player I think is more likely than baseline to be scum here

[Vanderscamp]

I really feel like Marci trying to talk me out of suspecting Hopkirk seems town (same for GL btw, but to a lesser extent).

Spoiler:

i dont really think hes scum, the way hes been replying doesnt feel like it to me.

I think that this post was designed to ensure that his push on Hopkirk never went through

(thinking emoji here)
i like ur points sis, but i dont agree with a hopkirk sus

It was a fake push designed to fail, so that everyone would townbin hopkirk (which everyone did).

thats not why i've been townreading hopkirk but alright

I think that one of us absolutely needs to go. Me and you both making it to Elo sounds like a nightmare for town tbh.

i think u rlly need to like... do sumn else for a bit and come back with a fresher pair of eyes.
if ur both town this will lead to failure probs.

like the failure state for town!marci has to be that she gets eliminated and the wrong one in Vanders/GL gets eliminated, right? I don't think either scum!GL or scum!Vanders have put themselves in a position to capitalize on Lukewarm-Hop TvT

hes gonna tunnel on him and i dont want that

Also, can you drop your hopkirk town case in here before the new day starts?

I forget where exactly I started thinking it, but I realized that his replies didn't really seem off.. like when i took a step back and just looked at how he interacted with other people, it seemed like hes a townie (if im understanding him and his style right..) its like a vibe read but more advanced than my viberead i had on dunnstral

Spoiler:

in the main thread
-even tho i don't quite understand the post 307 doesn't really seem like it has any bad intentions, and it just seems like townie questioning something.
-325
-356 his thingy on u seems genuine (like he wants to solve u)
-372, thats alot of work he put in there.. i don't think scum would've done that.

This all screamed "townie who does not want to lose because Luke tunnels" to me.

And then I compare that to Vanders over here, leaving the door open for Day 4 with a

I definitely think there's a nonzero chance that either Luke or hopkirk is scum, I don't think either of them is lock town.
I just played a game with hopkirk where a lot of the thread was pretty scummy, and hopkirk was sort of chilling and being aggressively null the entire time, but never really on anyone's radar because there were scummier people, so it wouldn't blow my mind if something similar is happening.

Which looks much more like someone who is making it look like he could reasonably side with me Day 4 when I tunnel Hopkirk.

I don't expect a final three of you me and hopkirk.
Do you?
And if I was in it I would vote you over him.

[Vanderscamp]

Idk what happened with that quote but my response was

I don't expect a final three of you me and hopkirk.
Do you?
And if I was in one I'd vote you over him.

[Vanderscamp]

I also find that quote interesting given that he has hopkirk higher on his townie list then I am

Hopkirk
Luke
GL
Marci

Like, why is he leaving so much "but maybe this could actually be hopkirk" behind in his iso, if hopkirk really is his strongest TR, unless it is to fall back on it and egg me on to tunnel Hopkirk tomorrow?

What do you mean so much? The only time I talked about hopkirk being scum recently I explained why I think he's different from the game I just played with him when he was scum.
But I also don't think hopkirk is lock town and I'm not going to pretend otherwise.

[Vanderscamp]

I don't expect a final three of you me and hopkirk.
Do you?
And if I was in it I would vote you over him.

If we vote for Marci today (which is what you were pushing for) then that is the exact line up I expect for tomorrow.

Ok, I don't.

[Vanderscamp]

I don't expect a final three of you me and hopkirk.
Do you?
And if I was in one I'd vote you over him.

But I also don't think hopkirk is lock town and I'm not going to pretend otherwise.

This feels contradictory to me.

You have me and hopkirk as your top two town reads, and if you were in a 3 man elo with me and hopkirk, you are confidently saying that you would be voting me there.

But then you are also saying that hopkirk is not "lock town" and "it wouldn't blow your mind if" he is the scum here.

What does it mean for someone to be "lock town" if not that you would not vote them in any 3 man elo combination?

Lock town to me means someone who has a zero or close to zero chance of being scum.
Hopkirk is my top town but not lock town.
Norwegian would have been close to if not lock town to me if he were in the big pool after his D1 and especially his interactions with bingle.

[Vanderscamp]

I would just like to point out that I made a case against Hopkirk, and I made a big show of it. It became a big topic of discussion in the thread.

Hopkirk commented and told me I was wrong.
Marci commented and told me I was wrong.
Guilty Lion commented and told me I was wrong.
Not_Mafia lightly commentated on reading it and made it clear that he did not believe it.
Dunn died before he could comment on it

and I am still salty about that

And then there is Vanders. He has not mentioned it once. Even when asked to talk about me post 1037.

And not only did he not comment on it directly, he left a short comment about not being surprised if Hopkirk were the scum this game.

Literally every player in the game seems to be trying to keep me from tunneling Hopkirk except Vanders.

I checked to see what you're talking about and I haven't read it.
I haven't caught up with the last few pages of this game, I'm trying to respond to current stuff instead.
I'm pretty sure you're misquoting my thoughts on hopkirk because it's definitely not true that I wouldn't be surprised if he were scum.

[Vanderscamp]

I'm pretty sure you're misquoting my thoughts on hopkirk because it's definitely not true that I wouldn't be surprised if he were scum.

This is what I was referring to

I definitely think there's a nonzero chance that either Luke or hopkirk is scum, I don't think either of them is lock town.
I just played a game with hopkirk where a lot of the thread was pretty scummy, and hopkirk was sort of chilling and being aggressively null the entire time, but never really on anyone's radar because there were scummier people,

so it wouldn't blow my mind if something similar is happening.

Sure, but in that same post I explain why I don't think it's the case that he is scum.

I don't understand what you're expecting?
Do you think that hopkirk should be above suspicion? Because obviously you don't think that and I don't either.
It's like in the game I just played, Loki talked about there being "mechanically confirmed" scum in certain groups of people, because they were the scummiest people in the thread. I agreed with him that his list of scum was a group of the scummiest players in the game, but then he said some shit about "if one of these other guys has fooled me they're playing an amazing game," which I immediately pushed back on because what he was saying was nonsense, the people in that "towny" group weren't scummy, but they weren't towny either, they were just much less scummy than the other group of people.
I got scumread in that game too by a lot of people for pushing against the notion that we should treat those people (including specifically hopkirk, who did end up being scum) as above suspicion. Not saying my lack of reading your case against him is somehow towny, but if no one other than you is on board with killing hopkirk, then why is it towny for anyone to be pushing against something that is obviously not happening?
But I don't care whether you think I'm being scummy by leaving my options open or whatever, I don't think hopkirk or anyone else here is lock town and I don't think it's either pro-town or towny in practice to treat people who are very unlikely to get lynched as if they're somehow above suspicion. The only person this game who should have been objectively above suspicion from how they've played is imo Norway. Literally no one in this entire game who is still alive, other than me, has any kind of interaction with bingle that makes them obviously not aligned, I think Marci is the only person who even voted him at eod. I think hopkirk's interactions with him are the best of you four which is the major part of why he is my top town.
I'll read your case when I get around to reading it and I'll comment on it then.

[Vanderscamp]

I'll caveat that actually, I do think what hopkirk had to say about bingle before bingle died did seem very genuine.
There was nothing hopkirk did in the entire previous game with his scum partner that was any kind of genuine reaction, his entire reason for surviving and almost winning essentially came down to not being scummy and hard pocketing Loki.
I also think what you (luke) said regarding bingle is also very towny!
It's just pretty annoying for me that I'm out of my scum range but no one else here actually knows that and somehow everyone is happy including me in their two kills.

[Vanderscamp]

Yep that's fair.

[Vanderscamp]

It's just pretty annoying for me that I'm out of my scum range but no one else here actually knows that and somehow everyone is happy including me in their two kills.

Sorry if this feels like I'm beating a dead horse, but what would you say is outside of your scum range this game?

My push on bingle.
No one here has played with me much so it's fair for you to discount that, but it's true and I can link quotes from other people that can confirm that what I'm saying is true.

I generally don't like to bus as scum so for me to do it there has to be a pretty good reason, more than just for the cred.
I'm 100% sure that the bingle kill would not have happened without what I did, and I was pushing him before he had a lot of traction.

[Vanderscamp]

i feel like i can see a good reason not for it to be everyone except Marci here

-GL- The made multiple townslips + hasn't faked townslips is pretty strong. Bingle's self vote makes less sense with GL than with Marci/Vanders.
-Vanders- best d1 voting + push on Bingle was early enough that i think it does conflict with the meta stuff. Especially since his frustration recently about being out of his scum range seems genuine.
-Luke- genuine emotional pings in a number of places, including around Bingle's death. Trying to start a 1v1 with me is super weird and town indicative. Feels hard pocketed by Bingle d1/I don't get the kind of stuff I'd expect Bingle to say to coach a newish partner in their posting.

Marci was pretty widely TR d1 and I can see Bingle thinking she can carry it from there + she's the only partner who couldn't consider switching to voting me. I can absolutely see a plan where Marci/Bingle d1 plan to compromise pivot onto Vanders towards the end of day, followed by continued pushing of me vs Bingle the next day. Marci being the good cop on the hop wagon opposed to Bingle's bad cop push of it is also positioning that makes sense compared to a partner just sitting back. I can see Marci/Bingle having Marci against the Hop push so that if Bingle forces it through d1 then a Bingle flip the next day wouldn't implicate her. I can see Bingle realizing I was going to vote him + Notmafia/Norway/Vanders were and being worried that someone else could switch before Marci did and wanted to cover the base with the hammer. TR then flying under the radar d2 makes sense as well post flip especially with a GL vs Vanders 1v1.

I'm struggling to see Bingle's plan otherwise, especially one that he'd be willing to self vote for there, and I'm struggling to see anything that jumps out as a reason not to vote Marci like i do for a lot of people

Completely agree with the reasoning on lukewarm btw

I'm generally not putting a ton of weight on bungle's self vote, there's a chance that what you're saying is correct but I think it's also possible the reasoning (regardless of his partner) was just that he thought it would make him look towny

[Vanderscamp]

if we had voted you > Dunn, assuming you are town, that would still put us in F3. How would that be better than eliminating you today?

becauses im confusing u guys way more

Marci was pretty widely TR d1 and I can see Bingle thinking she can carry it from there + she's the only partner who couldn't consider switching to voting me. I can absolutely see a plan where Marci/Bingle d1 plan to compromise pivot onto Vanders towards the end of day, followed by continued pushing of me vs Bingle the next day. Marci being the good cop on the hop wagon opposed to Bingle's bad cop push of it is also positioning that makes sense compared to a partner just sitting back. I can see Marci/Bingle having Marci against the Hop push so that if Bingle forces it through d1 then a Bingle flip the next day wouldn't implicate her. I can see Bingle realizing I was going to vote him + Notmafia/Norway/Vanders were and being worried that someone else could switch before Marci did and wanted to cover the base with the hammer. TR then flying under the radar d2 makes sense as well post flip especially with a GL vs Vanders 1v1.

I'm struggling to see Bingle's plan otherwise, especially one that he'd be willing to self vote for there, and I'm struggling to see anything that jumps out as a reason not to vote Marci like i do for a lot of people

fair enough but obviously if this was the plan then its doing very bad since ive kinda been sused alot last day phase!!
i wont try talking you out of this if this is what you truly believe, theres some "why would i do x if i was scum" that i could bring up, but thats pretty meaningless. i've barely done much this game, so i do deserve to be the elim : D tho i know im town, i know im only bad to be kept around : - ( i hope everyone will be very confident in where they wanna look next day phase tho : )

Spoiler:

VOTE: not_mafia

I have lukewarm leaning scum and Norwegian leaning town.

Oh and "not really townie" is a fancy shorthand way of saying that literally nothing you’ve said is something i think you couldn’t say as scum.

oh smhsmh u shouldve just said that.
lmk if u want me to vote myself

tbh im just waiting for juicier gossip

VOTE: marcistar

This is very awkward

VOTE: bingle

VOTE: guiltylion

You said last time you had to concede some of the points you were making that I responded to, which points were you actually conceding?
Because this is basically all stuff I've already responded to.
I can sort of believe that you can have trouble with my thing about the s/s thing since I may have phrased it pretty badly, but I don't believe that you can be reading my posts and then making the argument that me voting Marci is scummy in good faith, especially since you asked me the relevant question of who I scumread more between Marci and bingle.

@Vanders - can you towncase luke since i think you had him as your 2nd strongest TR

Yeah, I think his eod reactions around bingle were very towny.
I think his response to the extended accusation against him seemed pretty genuine too.

I think you and lukewarm both had much better interactions with Bingle than GL and Marci, who imo really have very little going for them regarding their in thread interactions with bingle, so I'd kill them both and feel pretty happy about it.

My biggest reason to not kill those two would be if I decided that GL was too towny, I do think he has seemed pretty towny once I took a step back from just looking at him push on me nonstop because he's putting in a lot more effort than I think would be necessary as scum on someone who I don't think is the most obvious push for him either. I could still be overestimating how good I look from pushing bingle but I think he could have easily just gone against Dunn instead.

I want to kill VOTE: marci because I think she has not been towny pretty much at any point this entire game, apart from her vote on bingle which did not come with a ton of associated pressure, and the logic about the pool setups on bingle's behalf, I don't have any reasons to think she's town and I don't think there's any way I would not use one of our two kills on her.

Spoiler:

VOTE: Bingle

Also i will be referencing this game a lot since it's like almost the same playerlist too. So please commit it to memory if you already haven't.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=86273

I've read through a bit of this game and I better see the arguments now for limming in the 6 pool, thanks for linking it

VOTE: Lukewarm

VOTE: Vanderscamp

I see you were online after the game started, come play

Still trying to get a better feel on Vander and Hop before I try any kind of push on Dunn.

Why do you need to have a better read on other players before pushing your scumread? I find that generally anti-town, town should always be making pushes and generating pressure

And what actions have you been taking to get a better feel of them?

VOTE: Lukewarm

I feel like it's pretty likely that if lukewarm joined this game to encourage Marci to step out of the newbie queue (which I have no reason at all to doubt) then he's probably going to be buddying up with her as any combination of alignments.

Was going to say it didn't feel like a S/S interaction from them before I remembered that isn't possible anyway

.

I'm mulling over this comment on reread... I feel it's less likely town would forget who is in which pool and which interactions can or can't be S/S. I've had my fair share of poorly thought out comments/takes this game, but certainly the entire game I've been

constantly

paying attention to interactions cross-pool and keeping in mind potential scum candidates of each pool. I'm skeptical town!Vanders wouldn't really be aware that Marci/Luke can't be scum together 300+ posts into the game.

VOTE: Vanderscamp

VOTE: Vanderscamp

pagetop vote for justice
remember to turn back to previous page to read my case

yeah 893 is also a great point

UNVOTE:

I'm tired and don't have time to lay out the explanation of things in marci's ISO I didn't like on reread but I can post that tomorrow. Want to get Hopkirk thoughts but I'm starting to feel pretty good about a Marci elim. I changed my own mind with the reasoning I posted earlier today about the number of townies who would have to be wrong at this stage for Vander to be scum

931 does feel pretty town overall though, I think

VOTE: Dunnstral

I'd be interested to hear why you wouldn't have played this way as scum

I love this stuff

[Vanderscamp]

I also find Vanders' attitude towards me today to be more townie - admitting that he can see reasons to townread me doesn't really serve him any benefit as scum when he would know he needs to lim me after marci, I think it's more likely to be a genuine belief of his.

Yeah I think I said this earlier but I think you're more likely than baseline to be town at this point because I do think your passion for wanting to kill me felt genuine

[Vanderscamp]

Vanders (please dont take this the wrong way but) if I had to describe your presence in the thread in one word, I would describe it as "forgettable."

For some reason, it just feels like your posts and pushes just are not particularly memorable. Like you keep saying that you were key to pushing out Bingle, but when I think back to Day 1, that is not something that stood out in my memory. I think of Hopkirk's 1v1 with Bingle, I think of Norwee and Not_Mafia's pushes on him, and I think of me organizing the "everyone vote for either hopkirk or Bingle." And then I look back at your iso, and I am like "huh, I guess Vanders did have a scum read on Bingle kinda early"

And now that I am like looking into it, it is very strange to me because when I look at the activity overview, of the living players, you are the second highest post count after me. But even though you are making a lot of posts, you are not making the kind of posts that draw attention I guess?

And I am not sure if that is just how you play the game normally, regardless of alignment, or if it is because you are being overly cautious with your posts because you are scum.

I am pretty sure that before I could stake the game on your alignment, I would to do a deep meta dive on you to figure that out, so I really hope that we don't both end up at Elo

Spoiler:

I think at this point, I really am just hoping that if we get it wrong today, that I am the night kill

Yeah I get this a decent amount, I think there's always an element of thinking that what I'm thinking about the game is coming across in the thread as obviously as it is in my mind when it really isn't.
I think it was the second most recent game I played where I thought this guy Robert was super obviously scum and I crushed him D1, when I was looking back on what I had actually said in a final three I had done a good job of trying to make sure we were killing him but nothing close to what I actually thought I had said.

To use you as a corollary for this, and I say this with no offence intended, but I could not have given less of a shit about you telling us to vote for either hopkirk or bingle, and I'm not sure it actually impacted anyone else's decision either. I do think it's towny that you were saying it, but ultimately not very impactful. But I'm sure because you were doing it and it's easier to look at your own perspective vs everyone else's it feels like it would have been something that was pretty relevant.

[Vanderscamp]

I'm convinced marci is the best elimination today and most likely scum.

im not scum but okay!!!! lets do whats best for town!!

I'd be interested to hear why you wouldn't have played this way as scum

I love this stuff

because its not what i would do as scum. the biggest reason is that i would've tried a bit more to change my play from last game, because last game i ultimately lost it for my team theres other reasons as well, but idk how to word them exactly

Why do you think you've played the same as last game?
Because that wasn't really the impression I was getting from people from that game

[Vanderscamp]

I think GL is probably the scum, I'm going to reread when I have time, until then I'm going to try to stay current.

[Vanderscamp]

Wrt to Vanders, I wish I had something to start conversation with you today, but I'm not sure I do yet. In a vacuum I think I'm still leaning towards you being scum over Hopkirk, but I intend to do a lot of evaluating and playing today I'm not gonna rush to put a vote down. I think the biggest things I have to weigh on your alignment don't really have to do with your posts or thought processes specifically and are more gamestate related (does Bingle make an empty threat to hammer you, or does Bingle push a scum buddy Hopkirk all the way up to almost being eliminated)

Happy to talk about this stuff, I think this is probably helpful to talk about for whichever of you is town.
Firstly, I think the interactions bingle and hopkirk had are pretty big points in favor of hopkirk being town, so I'm not going to try to argue with you that what bingle did regarding me is more obviously not s/s than what he did with hopkirk, I think there's a decent chance that the correct answer to your question is actually that hopkirk is town and is actually more town from it.

I think bingle threatening to hammer me should be pretty clearing for me though.
Obviously in a world where I'm scum with bingle, his threat to hammer me is not actually a real one because if he does so he loses instantly.
But even if the threat isn't real, the risk is still real, since if anyone votes me at that point, it's an instant loss since bingle is essentially outing me as his scum partner by refusing to hammer me.
I actually did consider the idea that bingle was planning on not hammering me at that point if I did get another vote, with the intention of trying to make me an autolynch at the cost of his own life (which almost definitely would have worked), but I think this is ultimately pretty unlikely since I don't think he was obviously getting killed at that point in the day and that trade would not have been worth it.

[Vanderscamp]

Thinking a bit more right now, I do think I have mostly good reasons to vote Vanders and not as good reasons to vote Hopkirk. I still think Bingle's play with Hopkirk is really unlikely to be theater and props to both of them if it was. I still think a lot of the small bits and pings in Vander's ISO that I've called out or focused on throughout the game together hint at a scum mindset. And I do think it's likely that Bingle's threats to hammer Vander and then self-vote instead were actions to protect Vander as they ensured that he wasn't eliminated on D1.

I don't have a lot of especially great reasons to townread Vander other than he vaguely sounds pretty town when he's playing (outside of the aforementioned pings/yellow flags), and that he did vote and get Bingle eliminated on D1. For most of D2 and D3 I also felt that his repeated claims that his bussing/voting Bingle should be town-clearing were more likely genuine than not. However, these reasons don't feel quite as strong to me when I weigh them against the fact that Vanders is clearly a very experienced mafia player (as I pointed out earlier he's claimed to play over 500+ games of mafia!) - which means none of these town tells are outside the range of a capable scum player who went into this game with a plan to distance from/bus their buddy, in a setup that incentivizes it, and milk as much towncred as possible from doing so.

It's also just hard for me to walk away from pride/vanity that I've had this read since D1 and haven't gotten to see Vanders flipped, frankly

The main reason I want to think/talk things through and get a sense of both of your mindsets right now is out of respect to Lukewarm's Hopkirk read and out of general care for F3 and needing to be open to re-evaluating. But gun to my head I vote Vanders here, so maybe Vanders if you're town we start with why Bingle/Hopkirk is S-S theater and not scum pushing town.

I'm going to iso bingle and hopkirk and try to answer that question as best I can.

The biggest thing in favor of that being theatre is that IIRC, there wasn't anything in any of their arguing that I thought was a super obviously not s/s interaction based on the content of what they were actually saying to each other. I could be wrong about this, I seem to remember someone saying (I think it was actually you) that they were obviously not s/s and I recall not particularly agreeing, but I also didn't have any read at all to think they were s/s and there wasn't any reason to think they were.
I still think that it's not obvious that the scum team was relying on bingle getting eliminated at some point in the game, especially with bingle having played last game, I think scum would have expected to eliminate in the 6p first, which instantly makes it impossible to for us to ensure a 3p scum death, especially if we aim into the big pool the next day and miss again.

[Vanderscamp]

I can also relitigate a lot of my D2 case against Vanders, I think it holds up especially with Dunn/Marci confirmed town now. To restate the main points:

- Mid D1, Vanders voted Marci for being 'awkward', then spent most of his next few posts giving reasons to scumread/suspect Bingle. I thought the reasoning for his Marci vote was a lot weaker than the reasoning he had to scumread Bingle, so the fact that he was voting Marci and not Bingle stood out as odd. Especially since he also claimed a strong TR on Norway at the same time, which would make Bingle/N_M a 50/50 proposition at that point. And he cannot explain this with a defense of 'better to eliminate in 6p rather than 3p' because he specifically said he would rather vote his strongest read than vote based on the pool. I think a lot of the D2 discussion focussed too much on this last point rather than the fact that his Marci vote was not justified to the degree that his Bingle read was, in part because Vanders steered the discussion more on the pool argument instead of acknowledging that the Marci vote had weaker reasons than his Bingle read (without vote)

- Vanders at one point claimed to forget that Luke/Marci were both in the 6p. I think that's more likely to be scum pretending to have a thought process rather than a real one - no one else in this game ever 'forgot' who was in which pool.

- Vanders claimed that he didn't read the neighborhood chat when I pointed out he didn't respond to me in there. He then shifted the discussion to "there's no value to posting in there", which again steered the conversation away from the

actual

point which is that even if you don't believe in

posting

in the hood as town, you should still be

reading

it. I call this out in more detail in 749.

- Vanders vote and push back on me throughout D2 seemed more focussed on discrediting my perspective and the argument rather than genuinely thinking I was scum. He gave no reasons for why I was scum outside of ones centered around me not 'believing' my case because my case was bad - but someone as experienced as Vanders should know that townies genuinely push faulty tunnels all the time.

If either of you think it's going to be helpful, I'll respond to this stuff.

[Vanderscamp]

Sorry, posting so I don't get fined

Extremely busy atm

[Vanderscamp]

Sorry, I should be more here in 10 hours or so

[Vanderscamp]

Sorry, I should be more here in 10 hours or so

Yeah, sorry

I've been unexpectedly busy, hopefully tomorrow is actually the day I can at least be here.
Happy to answer any questions from either of you

[Vanderscamp]

this inactivity does not bode well

I'm still thinking it's like 70% Vander 30% Hopkirk but I'd really love to talk with both of you today and also have opportunity to satisfyingly town case myself if there are hangups on my alignment that I can try to explain or talk about

I'm happy for you to towncase yourself, I do have hang ups with your alignment, my biggest issue is that most of what I think you're town for (tone and effort) is stuff that I think is fakeable from a competent scum.

[Vanderscamp]

Tomorrow for me meaning 10 hours from now btw

[Vanderscamp]

A QUICK TANGENT FROM THE WALL OF GL REPLYING TO HOPKIRK AND TOWN-CASING HIMSELF FOR A QUESTION FOR VANDERS

@Vanders,

On reread, I noticed this interaction which I had completely forgotten about:

Does jingle = bingle?

Does jingle = bingle?

Publicly so. Jingle is for modding and is my main account. I played TM there as an anomaly. Bingle is my game account, so that I can have a dedicated ego search/bookmarks for the games I'm playing in.

i remember seeing you quite a lot then. i assumed you were someone else

If Hopkirk and Bingle are a team, then this would almost have to be completely faked and Hopkirk would be aware of who Jingle was from pregame chat.
Do you think that is a) possible and b) likely? Cause this is the sort of thing that I actually would say is almost completely clearing for Hopkirk, I don't think most scum players are likely to premeditate and fake this kind of interaction.

Possible, sure, but definitely not likely.
It's a pretty pointless interaction to try and fake, the only reason would be to try and gain cred from it being a weird reaction, but I'm pretty sure hopkirk hasn't at any point tried to bring it up, it would be a super next level play if he's banking on the fact that one of us will bring it up after all this time.

[Vanderscamp]

Have you done any meta on Vanders?

This makes me sad cause it feels like you haven't been paying close attention to my posts I meta'd Vanders on D2 - I didn't find anything I would say was extremely indicative because he only has one completed scum game IIRC, but I read over that game as well as a few of his town games to try to see if I could pick up on differences in his vibe or his play. Here's where I posted as I was doing that:

I'm skimmin' Vanders' past games and continuing to feel validated in this scumread, his towngames feel more involved and insightful than what he's given us here (and what he's contributed D2 has really only ever been under direct fire from me). He also clearly has extensive mafia history, claiming 500-600 games played, which removes any poolspec concerns about Bingle putting a 'newbie' in 6p.

As long as he gets flipped at some point this game I think we win. Y'all can ignore me and vote myself or Dunn instead today but I don't see myself wanting to vote elsewhere, and I will expect you to atone for bad votes and sheep my read if I'm flipped first. Do not let him live through any F3.

This is by no means a slam-dunk scum tell but I also did notice in his past scumgame, he made a very similar post to one he made in this game:

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12647731

I'm not getting anything from the flea/mena discussion

Also of importance is that Mena was his scumbuddy here.

What do we see in this game?

I got nothing at all out of the bingle/hopkirk exchange

have not found a similar post in his town ISOs yet, claiming to receive nothing useful out of other players arguing/discussing, but I haven't done a full deep dive.

I'll admit I have not since felt as confident as I did when I originally posted 847 - and I've been slowly talking myself back into that confidence, I think I'm pretty much ready to vote Vanders with a little more discussion today - but I suggest you meta him again and see how you feel his involvement and analysis in his town games compares to his effort here, especially regarding any vote or push outside of his D1 Bingle scumread.

I also again would like to highlight that this is a lot of effort for me to fake as scum. If I were scum, I would

know

that Vanders is town and that meta'ing him would be an exercise in trying to prove something that isn't true.

I certainly would not have been able to plan that I would find a post from his scum game that is nearly identical to a post that he gave in this game, that is simply something I could not engineer or expect to use against him without having read his scum game in close detail - which I would have had no reason to do as scum.

I also found that comment about his mafia experience from one of his town games which should serve as proof that I specifically was not only looking at his scum game in order to try to bullshit a fake case against him, but rather reading all his completed games to try to look for patterns or differences in play.

I'm pretty certain I've said that as both alignments?
I can try and look this up if either of you care, but I'm pretty sure I'll be able to find a post where I say something to that effect in a town game on this site. So any post I make that is similar to anything I've said in a scum game is something you can plan to find if there's no requirement that it isn't also something I say as town.

[Vanderscamp]

my biggest issue is that most of what I think you're town for (tone and effort) is stuff that I think is fakeable from a competent scum.

The last thing I want to do is reply to this with a brief summary of my effort in my past few completed scum games to show that it simply does not match the effort I have put into this game, but that will have to wait as my partner is about to get home and I need to take a break from this for now. I'll bring it tomorrow

No problem

My intent is to probably vote you unless you blow me away, I haven't really seen anything from you that has made me change my mind about you two, if anything what you have been posting is convincing me more that hopkirk is town.

[Vanderscamp]

VOTE: guiltylion
Sorry if this is wrong, but I just don't see myself not voting here.
You've done more today to convince me that hopkirk is town than yourself.

[Vanderscamp]

i saw what you mentioned about the last game not having a night phase, and went to check and vanders did post a little in his 2p hood in the game i just played with him as town. vanders, have you got any backup for your 'not reading hoods'

The previous run of this game.

In that game there is a slight difference in that you're posting in a hood that is not literally guaranteed to contain a scum, but iirc my contributions in that hood were basically telling whatever my neighbour's name was (I don't remember) that I wasn't interested in discussing anything meaningful in that hood. That hood also turned out to be far worse than useless because my hood partner was trying to do shit like set really weird traps for me in the hood and then lost their mind when I didn't react the way they wanted.

[Vanderscamp]

Good news!

Happy to answer any other questions you have to me after I get through with the ones from last page

[Vanderscamp]

@Vanders - can you give an example of any times where you have bussed early? i'm interested in seeing the stuff you offered where people are commenting about a long history of not bussing as well

i'm not going to be able to get through meta reading from other games tonight, that's likely/is going to be a Friday evening thing

vanders hit L1 i think twice in the last couple of games so i don't agree you were the only one pushing him, you also said just now that i was pushing him more than you during a bunch of that time

frankly Hopkirk I'm really disappointed you don't see me as town here in comparison. It's a large part of why I still think you might be scum. It's also bullshit you tried to suggest it could be scummy I didn't post in the hood over the last night phase when Lukewarm didn't either and flipped town

I wanted this LYLO to be me deciding between you two (probably unreasonable, I know , but it's what would have been my preferred outcome) and instead it feels like I am primarily defending myself against both of your slots whenever either of you pop in, and neither of you are even really trying to pressure the other.

I also just don't get how you progress on me Hopkirk. It's like you think I'm more suspicious because I gave up on Vander and went along with everyone else's desired eliminations, when you were more strongly scumreading him than me on D2/D3. Like it feels like you pivot to scumreading me whenever I try to either get you to see scum!Vander or to see me as clearly town, and I don't really know what would have been better or more productive for me to do here, like you are just motivated to continue to keep scumreading me despite any tactic I try to help you solve correctly - assuming you are town

the two biggest reasons that i started
- Vanders' Bingle vote- this is the reason i unvoted vanders several times
- At the end of yesterday (then today) you were considering me in a way that felt out of line with what i'd expect. it feels so weird you'd be saying you 100% commit to never voting me & spend days pushing vanders then still act like you're deciding both end of day yesterday then for ages today. i'd have expected town!you to vote vanders out of the gate, but you highlighted prenight that you were no longer sure in a way that felt weird

the lack of you saying stuff overnight is different to Luke because he ended yesterday by explicitly saying he didn't want to give reads if he died.

also something i'll clarify with a couple of quotes on the topic of overnight posting in one sec

Bussing someone as early and hard as my bingle push, I think literally never in years / hundreds of games.
The reason for that is that I found I win more easily without bussing, and I think almost every meta does not "respect" bussing enough to make it anything other than -ev in almost all situations. Especially in metas where I don't have a reputation already as a non-busser, like this site or when I play on mafia universe, when I'm town and successfully push scum early it's still an uphill battle a lot of the time to not get killed because people generally seem to just expect bussing.

There was a pretty recent game where I did start bussing on D2 after trying hard (and failing) to defend a scum partner of mine who ended up getting killed D1, the reasoning there was because I looked like total shit and was obviously not making it to endgame and wanted to prop up someone who could actually win an endgame.

I think the only time I can remember actually pushing a partner to any real extent on D1 in the last several years was about four years ago, when a scum partner entered the chat with a line that was something like "well sorry guys, you're stuck with me, hope you guys can win after I inevitably die early" and proceeded to try in the game even less than that line implies she was going to. Even then I'm not sure I ever actually voted her, just called her scum and tried to discourage the null reads on her and stuff. I also remember not getting any cred at all for it because it was so obvious that she was a sinking ship that "even I" would have pushed on her in that situation (which was obviously true)

Re: the quotes that confirm my meta, I can quote you a bunch of examples tomorrow.

[Vanderscamp]

Also, Vanders was hesitant to vote Bingle first, that's what the whole deal with him shading Bingle but then voting Marci was about and what first made me suspicious. Reread his whole sequence of posts in the 230s-250s somewherethat I called out several times throughout this game. I think after that sequence he realized he wasn't distancing hard enough to be believable and voted Bingle, and then after nEE and NM started suspecting Bingle he got stuck voting there. Backing off afterwards would have looked even worse.

I wasn't hesitant to vote bingle, I thought Marci was being quite scummy and when bingle responded to my accusation against him, he responded pretty poorly, and that was the point when he became more scummy to me than marci and so I voted him.
As soon as he became my top scum read I voted him.
What does "not distancing hard enough to be believable" even mean?

[Vanderscamp]

Vanders pushes GL a lot less than i'd expect from someone who thinks GL is reading him in bad faith around the 700-900 area

also, that's the only reason he really gave for pushing me. At no point has he tried to explain why my interactions with Bingle (or any other non-Vanders slot) are scum-motivated. If he knew that I was scum, especially at the point of voting me today in F3, it should be easier for him to be bringing forward some of those arguments. Instead, even today he just takes the angle that I have convinced him that you are town

I don't think your interactions with bingle are super scum-indicative, you just have essentially nothing at all from your interactions with bingle that are points in your favor.
I don't think you ever voted him at any point, despite apparently (having said this the next day) that my case on bingle early D1 was so convincing that it's extremely strange that I did not immediately vote him over Marci, who had imo objectively been playing in a pretty scummy manner.

[Vanderscamp]

Finding some examples of other games to corroborate my meta, here's some quotes from one where I voted for an evil D1 and then again on D2 in a roleset where not all evils were knowledgeable of all other evils, and it was alignment reveal only.
At this point it was mid-D2 and the player below is eliminating the worlds in which I'm evil and knowledgable of the evil we killed D1 (and I actually pushed on that evil less than I pushed on Bingle this game)

https://www.boardgamegeek.com/thread/23 ... 0#33843560

A few things, I find it entertaining and possibly informative for future games that WWH never answered this question:

WWH, if you were evil in this game, what role would you be?

Also WWH pushed Vanders pretty hard so I think it's less likely that V is evil now.

I think I'd go with egburr or beren if I had to point a finger at someone who might be evil right now.

I also agree that Apple is moving more into my "okay this is just how Apple plays, he's not actually evil" category.

I think Applejack is shiny right now.

Vander is not an evil who was knowledgeable of WWHunter. If WWHunter was a wolf, Vander is not the co wolf. If WWHunter was sorc, Vander is not a wolf. If WWHunter was the Cub, Vander can be any evil role.

Overall, I'd say Vander is less likely to be evil because we can rule out some pairings. But his WWHunter vote means nothing along certain other co-evil pairings.

I somewhat think Vander might be good because I think evil Vander claims a GS role if he thinks he's getting lynched. I'll have to go back and read LC again to see whether this read holds up to how the sequence exactly went down.

Below is the next day after I voted for another evil.
I am the quote in italics, and the other player in bold (same player as before, who has played 94 games with me) is confirming that I am essentially cleared barring the worlds where I didn't know the evils.
(We were both good this game)

I wish BG would out who they saved. Unless wolves WIFOM'd and NK'd last night or forgot to place a kill.

I think seer claiming is more relevant, what if BG saved me for example?
It shouldn't affect the game at all, since it's not possible for hunter/egburr/vanderscamp to be an evil combination of any kind, and there's no reason to lynch or view me anyway.

Because you were the counter to WWH on D1 and egburr voted you?

Because Vander voted for WWHunter, and then absolutely was a driving force on Ed the next day.

If we don't put a Sorc in WWhunter/Ed, it's pretty difficult to reconcile Vander's play with him being a wolf/cub. Based on his past history as evil where he doesn't really bus.


But even beyond the mechanical, Vander wanted to kill 2 evils out of 2. Would you say he's bussing pretty hard? Or he's an evil with terrible reads?

I think the far simpler explanation is that he's a townsperson who has been killing evils.

This is on D4, talking about how I am essentially cleared for nothing other than my pushes on the evils (I was saved from NK on N2 but this information was not publicly known until D4).

I find it a somewhat baffling NK unless wolves had a strong BG/GS read on her.


I think the xandryyte kill makes superficial sense even outside a BG hunt if wolves know that Apprentice Seer is probably promoting (or real seer is alive) and that xandryyte is good. Since the stated plan seemed to be to view her.

It especially makes sense if Kortemaki was the real Seer. Evil knows that since they know he's not Sorc. They have no idea who is going to promote. So, they kill the person they believe is going to be viewed to deny us a clear.

That all makes sense.


But what I don't get is why not kill Vander instead. He was never getting lynched in this game imo, just based on strongly lynching two 'wolves'. Even assume the BG doesn't clear him for being NKd N2, he's unlynchable. And if BG does claim, he's lock clear.

And more importantly, he's a 100% safe NK, because I can't repeat protection targets on consecutive nights.



So I don't really see how xandryyte is a superior NK to Vander unless wolves believed that xandryyte was the BG. That's my ultimate conclusion. They had a GS read on her. If you strongly think she's the BG

and

is going to be the Seer view, she's a great NK.

Summing it up - I think there's probably one wolf left, and that wolf thought xandryyte was BG.

[Vanderscamp]

This is from a game where it was D5 or so and the player below is talking about me having put wolves in my lynch list should be clearing.
I'm the quote in italics, the player and I were both good and she has 78 games with me.

So, two Evils in me, Dejo, Vander, Apple, Rorab (pending cvb not being Cultist, but lol)

My Good read of Rorab is still going pretty strong, so I'll keep that up. Obvs not me.

So 2/3 of Dejo, Apple and Vander.

Benes/cvb/Nets/Paper/Samool/Smug/TWM

Now that's a great lynch list.
My town circle this game is Vanderscamp/apple/dejo/majai/rorab/dubs but I don't feel good about that one at all, I'm guessing it's better than a literal random town circle but maybe not by that much.

Vander's Evil pool here (from my POV, and assuming Good Benes) has 4 Goods in it, but also Evil Wolf Paper, and Evil Wolf Samool/TWM. And Vander did that weird flip of his read of Benes and Net, although I guess he could have been getting ahead of the storm, seeing it coming that people would see them as Good.

I don't think so though. I don't think Vander lists two co-Wolves in his Evil list (Wolf Paper and a guaranteed Wolf in Samool/TWM/Benes).

So my Evil team here is Apple, Dejo, TWM (outside chance of Benes).

I'm pretty settled on this and I think we win if we kill those 4 people in that order

I think that post of Vander's that I've quoted is pretty clearing of him, tbh, but I'm willing to listen to arguments why it shouldn't be.

The same player as above is defending me here against an evil (evil player in bold)
Also worth noting that in the second of this player's posts, she mentions that even if my partner looks pretty bad I still have a pretty high chance of defending them.

How anti-bussing is Vanders? People keep saying that, but if he's a wolf here, his voting record is probably mostly auxes that he wouldn't have known about, so that's not what I would call bussing. He's arguing he wouldn't even give evil reads of his co-wolves, but that's not a pattern I've ever noticed before.

He named every single Evil candidate other than Apple in his pool of Evils, possible that Apple is a Wolf, but then he still heavily pushed for Paper to die.

Paper was claimed and universally thought to be evil, it'd be pretty weird if he wasn't in the list. Two of the others are auxes that Vanders wouldn't have known. So basically you're saying he wouldn't put the second over his co-wolves in his evil pool no matter what felt realistic?

That's only if you think Apple was a Wolf. In my experience, Vander wouldn't go hard in bussing and would in fact argue for Paper as Good or probable Good.

Why is it only if I think Apple is a wolf? (I don't think Apple was a wolf.)

Then from your POV, Vander listed both of his co-wolves in his Evil pool, which I think is extremely unlikely for Vander in this style of game.

Benes - I think at the very least he either argues to punt on killing both the Oranges and almost certainly doesn't go all in on killing Paper.

I dunno, I just don't think I've ever seen Vander Wolf like this. And yes, you can always play against type to fool people, but in this game, that's literally only worked on me, so *shrug*?

[Vanderscamp]

https://www.boardgamegeek.com/thread/23 ... 6#33897286 for a link to that game

[Vanderscamp]

This one is not an obvious yield but essentially two players who have a lot of experience with me and were both good (the one in bold the same one in the first example) were characterising my style for pretty much the entire game in terms of reading me on how accurate my pushes have been.
In this game I was one of two evils alongside a player WerewolfHunter (WH) who was generally suspicious who I never really pushed on, I was pushing pretty hard on a player named BigRed, and I was defending Sloth (the italic player) and Mytherva.

Decent post.

I can definitely see red as evil, I also think evil red basically clears you and vanders so I'm willing to go there.

Why would I push you as evil myth? Please explain that.

You've been read as good since d1 by what feels like a majority of the village. I'd have doused you because early game would suggest you'd be hard to mislynch.

You keep saying my perspective is off but that's mostly due to you not reading what I'm saying.

The perspective being off is less so about the vote on me and more so about other things.

In one post you listed Vanders in 2 of your top evil teams. In one of the next posts you said he’s very likely good.

In one post you voted WWH and then the next you responded with a goo eye to Puavo’s WWH vote.

You’ve said Puavo is very likely evil but you keep suggesting that me/WWH is the evil team.

Things just don’t really add up

Lol ok. You're clearly not reading what I'm saying.

I've explored quite a few worlds trying to see what makes sense. On a pure standalone read, I think ortho and vanders are good. I think ortho is more likely good than vanders, and if you or WWH flipped evil I would almost assuredly want to lynch vanders next.

I don't understand why it's confusing that I think there are lot of evil people. WW is not a black and white game or it'd be easily solved as good every game. I think Puavo has seemed evil, but then when I see a person voting somebody else I think could be evil it makes me step back and go "huh".

I'm currently voting hunter because I think she is SINGLEHANDEDLY the most evil person in the thread right now. I also think she can be wolves with more people than bigred. If she flips evil, then I'll narrow my worldview and see who it makes sense for her to be evil with.

My perspective isn't confusing. It's that I'm a freaking villager so I have to keep an open mind. I think I've explained that multiple times but it doesn't feel like you're reading everythign I'm saying which is yet another reason why you seem evil.

I thought dusk was now but it’s in an hour.

Are we set on a jeremiah kill today? I feel that it’d be the best option.

It seems pretty likely that jerimiah is going to die. In the happy world where the village is coming together well, he's probably evil, too.

So when I flip good, what would that tell us?
If I were to flip evil, what would that tell us? Myth seems to think it's exactly me and pauvo. What do you think?

I don't feel good about jerimiah/Puavo. I have never been as gung-ho about Puavo being evil as others have been.

Part of the reason (aside from thinking your chances of evil being high) why I think you are a good kill today is that Vander and Sloth are evils who eschew bussing for the post part. They push mislynches, usually pretty strongly. This is a game where the main direct validation of anyone's alignment is only going to come from the daykills. Putting reads aside, the 4 people whose alignment it would be most helpful for me to know are you, Puavo, Sloth and Vander.

Sloth looks pretty bad to me if you are good. Part of the reason I continue to think you're evil is your reaction to Sloth, good reading him the way you have. That's a classic evil!Sloth mislynch push if you are evil imo, and your reaction seems more like an evil trying to pacify a good who is suspecting him.

I would rather VOTE: before bed, whom I think has done essentially nothing good in this game.

Mytherva, you might be right about all your individual Vander posts. He seems more good than Sloth fwiw. But I think if Vander shows up on D3 and his main evil read is a guy you're pretty convinced is good, his other main evil read was a guy who flipped good, and there've been no correct daykills all game, that's a pretty bad sign for his alignment! But I think you're putting a lot of effort into your analysis, and fair play.

Link to the game:
https://www.boardgamegeek.com/thread/2498153

[Vanderscamp]

I can find more if you're keen

[Vanderscamp]

that was the point when he became more scummy to me than marci and so I voted him.
As soon as he became my top scum read I voted him.

This is the lie! This is what I've been saying all game. Saying Marci was a bigger scumread than Bingle makes no sense, looking at everything you posted. You said Marci was awkward. Awkward is awkward, it isn't necessarily scum, and everyone knows that.

At the same time, you gave a bunch of solid reasons to suspect Bingle. Good reasons! Much better than "he's awkward". Yet you voted Marcistar instead.

On top of this, in the same series of posts you said you had nEE down as a solid townread. So from your point of view, Bingle should be roughly a 50% proposition already, on top of all the points you had against him.

It's a lie to say you had a stronger scumread on Marci. Nothing in your posts demonstrated that, and from a pure probability standpoint it doesn't make sense either.

I didn't "vote Marcistar instead," I voted Marci for the reasons I scumread her, then I started to scumread bingle, and I asked him about it, and when he responded poorly I instantly voted him.
I've maintained many times that we should just be voting the person we think is scummiest, and at the time that was Marci. You asked me at the time which of them I thought was scummier before bingle responded and I said it was close but probably Marci.

and you liking my reasons for scumreading Marci less than my reasons for scumreading bingle doesn't mean that I agree with you which case was better. I was not calling Marci awkward in a NAI sense, I was calling her awkward in a scummy sense. It's super hypocritical of you to have started talking about this stuff only starting on D2 after bingle died, instead of D1 when it was actually happening (and you even asked me about it) because for you to say the stuff you're saying now about it on d1, it means you have to commit to thinking my case on bingle was great, which you pretty obviously didn't want to do.

[Vanderscamp]

I don't think you ever voted him at any point, despite apparently (having said this the next day) that my case on bingle early D1 was so convincing that it's extremely strange that I did not immediately vote him over Marci,

This is a misrep. Just because I thought they were good reasons to suspect Bingle, does not mean I was convinced by them. I wasn't even convinced limming in the 3p was the right move.

What I thought was that

you

should be voting Bingle given the points you were making against him in the thread. Your thought process did not match your vote.

I wasn't convinced by them either, that's why I asked bingle for clarification and when he responded poorly I voted him.
How is it supposed to be a thing that I should have been convinced by the reasoning but you didn't need to be?
Nothing I was saying was dependent on my alignment.

[Vanderscamp]

Limited access today, will hammer tomorrow at some point

@vanders - when you say the 'scummiest slot' how much are you factoring in prior probability of a slot being scum (1/3 or 1/2 for small pool with 0/1 strong townreads Vs 1/5 for the bigger pool).

trying to factor that in but more to try and calculate the deviation from the base % (which is what I mean by scummiest) than overall scum %.
If I only cared about overall scum % then I wouldn't be as indifferent to which pool to kill into.

[Vanderscamp]

I was talking about it on D1 - I literally asked you a question about it in 236 and then referred to it again later in 472 when I said I didn't think your Marci vote had any conviction or intent to solve.

Further, you are misrepresenting things when you try to frame this a matter of it being about either of us being "convinced" by the points about Bingle. What I'm calling out is an inconsistency in your attitude and your vote. Townes generally vote who they feel is most likely to be scum, unless they're doing wagonomic compromising with other players to get an elimination through. That's not what happens early D1 though. I pay attention to why people vote who they are voting and it usually stands out to me when they give more reasons for voting somewhere else, yet they don't.

And of course naturally that's only going to stand out more strongly to me after the player you were shading but not voting later flips scum! It started off as a ping/light suspicion amidst a bunch of inherent noise. On D2 after we had Bingle's flip, obviously it's going to stand out more clearly. This is basic mafia play, and there's no "hyppcrisy" there

I was talking about it on D1 - I literally asked you a question about it in 236 and then referred to it again later in 472 when I said I didn't think your Marci vote had any conviction or intent to solve.

Further, you are misrepresenting things when you try to frame this a matter of it being about either of us being "convinced" by the points about Bingle. What I'm calling out is an inconsistency in your attitude and your vote. Townes generally vote who they feel is most likely to be scum, unless they're doing wagonomic compromising with other players to get an elimination through. That's not what happens early D1 though. I pay attention to why people vote who they are voting and it usually stands out to me when they give more reasons for voting somewhere else, yet they don't.

And of course naturally that's only going to stand out more strongly to me after the player you were shading but not voting later flips scum! It started off as a ping/light suspicion amidst a bunch of inherent noise. On D2 after we had Bingle's flip, obviously it's going to stand out more clearly. This is basic mafia play, and there's no "hyppcrisy" there

What you're saying would be fair if it were true that I was shading but not voting bingle.
You are making a massive deal over the half a day or whatever it was where I didn't vote bingle because I had a stronger scumread on someone else, like it's supposed to be evidence of me being afraid to vote bingle.
You can't simultaneously argue that I came into the game deciding to bus my partner hard for basically no reason (I was pushing and voting on him before either me or bingle was under any real suspicion) and also argue that I was afraid to vote him.
additionally, I don't give a shit what you think I should have thought based on my own cases against people, especially when you never at any point followed through with a vote on bingle. Obviously in hindsight my case on bingle was right and the one on Marci wasn't, if I had that knowledge at the time then I would not have been voting Marci. But you're just trying to downplay my Marci read as if it was supposed to be some kind of policy accusation or something when I have consistently throughout pretty much the entire game said that I think marci has been playing in a very scummy way. When you were "setting a trap" for me by asking me why I'm not happy to just never vote Marci for the rest of the game or whatever I shat on that notion as well, I reiterated that despite me believing the pool analysis from what bingle do made Marci likely town, I still thought she was scummy and that was basically the only reason I actually had to townread her.

[Vanderscamp]

'To me, this feels like scum making things up to simulate a fictional thought process. I don't buy it as an authentic one. I find it remarkably hard to imagine that town!Vanderscamp was reading conversation between two players in the same pool and not already aware that it cannot be a S-S interaction. '

would scum think 'forgetting the pools' sounds like a townslip? given your assumption that it was fake immediately does scum!vanders/scum!bingle discuss this and decide it makes vanders sound townie? i feel like your read of this comment was somewhat intense

Sorry I think I forgot to reply to this

The thing is I don't think Vanders was trying to do anything especially manipulative or crafty with that post, I just couldn't grok a world where town posts it. Again, ask yourself did you ever forget who was in which pool? Were you always informing your reads by the information available to us through the 1 scum in each pool nature of the setup?

It was just really really really difficult for me to imagine town just straight up forgetting that Marci/Luke was never SvS. It's "forgetting" foundational information that should have been driving his analysis of every interaction between slots in this game.

I didn't forget, I feel like the only issue with my post was the phrasing of it which was bad.
I clarified the phrasing to a point where it's pretty clear I did not forget, but you have basically not responded to my actual explanation of it, just trying to paint the meaning of the phrasing of what I said as scummy.

[Vanderscamp]

Can confirm I'm scum, GG all

WP GL especially for being on my case for pretty much the entire game

[Vanderscamp]

FWIW bussing bingle like this really was as big a meta deviation for me as I was saying it was, it was partly wanting to try different stuff on a different site (and for the most part disliking the result I got), but most of the reason being that I really didn't think bingle would actually die, I thought the overwhelming sentiment to kill into the big pool first would make him safe for D1.

[Vanderscamp]

@Bingle - When you made that post, how did you expect the thread to respond to it?

My guess is that it was a very carefully calculated risk where he figured that I was very unlikely to actually get another vote, especially with that comment.

[Vanderscamp]

I think this game is balanced and deserves to be considered for Approved status btw, but would like to see if anyone else has strong thoughts before bringing it to Isis. (Or rather, I'm bringing it to Isis and would like to give other people to voice their concerns should they wish to do so.)

Yeah, definitely seemed balanced to me both times.