Townstumps Mafia (Endgame)

[mastina]

VOTE: nsg
Best town stump to select imo.

[mastina]

But i can be much more funny.

You're my second pick.

[mastina]

i'm of the opinion that townstumps are better used as people we want bulletproof rather than some kind of pre-emptive investigation, or choice for people we think will be hard to sort. i feel as though using it that way is more akin to choosing someone to just remove from the game rather than choosing a voice we want around for the entire game

^

As entertaining as N_M would be, he is not someone who gets the most out of being effectively bulletproof.

nsg, Norwegian, and jjh on the other hand... (jjh is my third choice behind nsg and Norwegian)

[mastina]

Another great combo is Weak Hider + Doctor
Hider claims d1 and announces his target before night, doctor stays hidden and protects the target.
Follow the cop.

Hiders can be roleblocked. Would need to be an ascetic weak hider with the doctor.

Also, a scum rolestopper/alien could interfere because by protecting a scumbuddy they cause the hide to fail.

Also, a scum strongman could interfere, too.

So not a broken combo.

I personally favor the likes of Loyal Announcing Loud Neighborizer. Closest thing a Normal has to a Masonizer. Can't get hard-guilties, isn't inherently cleared, but can wrack up hard innocents if given the opportunity, and has far better follow the cop energy with a doctor as the only counterplay scum have is roleblocker/jailkeeper/alien/strongman.

[mastina]

As tree stump, I can run the scumputer ALL GAME LONG!!!!!

For the record DGB you're not one of my top stump candidates purely because to put it simply, any competent stump I would trust to not place suspicion on you, forcing you to be a scum nightkill.

[mastina]

It's spelt epitome

Wait, epitome isn't pronounced 'epi-tome' with epitomy as 'epi-to-me'?

I thought they were two different words with similar meaning but different pronunciations/spelling......

[mastina]

VOTE: NorwegianboyEE > jjh > other stumps imo

[mastina]

mastina, why can't you give DGB a stump?

As tree stump, I can run the scumputer ALL GAME LONG!!!!!

For the record DGB you're not one of my top stump candidates purely because to put it simply, any competent stump I would trust to not place suspicion on you, forcing you to be a scum nightkill.

Basically I think DGB gets more mileage out of this game by being a player than as a 'stump.

My votes are for the players I think get more out of being a 'stump than out of being a player.

This is the same reason I'm not voting to stump a player like the Nancy/DKKoba hydra. I value them more as players than I do as a treestump as I legitimately genuinely think they have more agency with having a vote than they do with just their voice.

Similar for DGB. What good is the scumputer without the ability to back it with a vote?

Votes are a valuable tool, and while voice is also important, certain players get more out of their voice than their vote and certain players get more out of their vote to augment their voice.

nsg is a player who I think gets more out of her voice than her vote; NorwegianboyEE is a player who I think gets more out of a voice than a vote; jjh is a player who I think gets more out of his voice than his vote.

But Nancy and DKKoba (BOTH halves of the hydra), while their voice is fine with just their voice and doesn't

need

a vote, I see as being greatly augmented by the

pressure

of the vote. I legitimately genuinely think that lacking a vote is a huge nerf to both halves of the hydra in throwing their weight around. Yes, being conftown and yes being active and yes being skilled are all big boons, but the simple fact is, it's much easier to get people to follow you when you have a vote to back your statements.

And DGB is...well. A player that I don't think in the current age has the "pull" so to speak off of just its voice to get followers, whereas by backing its statements up with a vote, DGB can generate the pressure needed to get people to listen to it.

Essentially, treestumps act as advisors, but don't hold any truly real power over the direction of the town. The town should listen to them, but are not obligated to because the treestumps lack votes. Which means that any player you treestump, you lose the pressure on scum of. And the best 'stumps are the players who can generate that pressure purely off of their voice alone without needing to back it with a vote.

You have to keep in mind that the town has two universal tools to them, not just the one. If you give a player who draws strength from their vote no vote, then you're removing the reason their voice is so strong in the first place.

And while Nancy, DKKoba, and DGB would all be

decent

voices even without their vote, I don't think they'd be the

best

voices when lacking their vote. Votes are powerful tools that carry a lot of weight and pressure to them, and allow you tangible power that most people take for granted.

[mastina]

I prefer us or Norwee.

I prefer Norwee because again--while you'd be a

decent

treestump, I genuinely think that the loss of your slot's vote would make your slot lose a lot of its value to the town.

You and DKKoba are both pressure-heavy players. You're very aggressive. You're very aggro. You're very, so to speak, red-focused, where you go hard, you push hard, you are relentless, you are forces of nature. But these are all traits that lose potency if they aren't backed by the power of a vote, because a vote allows you to apply that pressure, to start wagons, to threaten an elimination.

If you're stumped, in order to get pressure, you need to convince other players to vote who you want to pressure, and time spent getting others to vote for the people you want is time not spent being aggro, more or less. Meaning you have to spend extra time and effort on convincing others because you can't do any of the legwork for yourselves, so to speak.

I value the power of voting for slots like you more than I value the power of having your voice be immortal because given your hydra's player's playstyles, I see a vote as a crucial part of the thing that makes you be a threat. Its absence wouldn't completely remove your influence, but it would neuter the impact of that influence.

[mastina]

but then that makes us vulnerable to the nightkill

Way I see it, feature not a flaw.

Players who are more valuable with votes than with immortal voices being forced to be nightkills means scum are forced into a box. There are obligatory, mandatory, nightkills that they MUST make, or else they automatically lose, which makes the game much easier for the town.

Players who are more valuable with voices that are left with votes aren't as mandatory of nightkills, but when killed give the scum more leeway, more freedom, more breathing room. They're not mandatory nightkills, but can be nightkilled. If they're nightkilled it gives the town comparatively less info because they weren't going to make the most out of their votes anyway, and if they're left alive they're not as big of a threat because their vote isn't their deadliest tool.

I genuinely believe that treestumping the players whose greatest tool is their vote is a mistake because forcing scum to nightkill these players is a net BOON to the town, as it limits scum's nightkills.

Limiting scum's pool of nightkills > leaving scum with flexibility in who to nightkill.

Also,

and I think I have learned how to case much better in recent times

You needing to case is again something I feel is a nerf to your natural playstyle. If you are, by your role, required to case because you lack a vote to apply the pressure, it's taking away from your natural ability to generate that pressure because it's forcing you to do something that isn't inherently generating pressure in the HOPES that after having done so you MIGHT generate pressure.

Guarantee of pressure thanks to having a vote > possibility of pressure after spending time doing something you're not innately good at.

[mastina]

Mastina so convincing my god.

I do that sometimes!

And yet, people always seem to be surprised.

[mastina]

A vote is not the deciding factor that mastina is claiming. Pressure is. An immortal town scumhunter with the ability to constantly influence votes is much more beneficial than a single vote that can be killed off.

And I am arguing that an immortal town scumhunter who lacks votes innately inherently has less ability to influence votes and generate pressure than a town scumhunter who has a vote, especially when that player is a pressure/high-aggro style player.

Constant influence might be constant, but it is something that generates a different aura. There is a big difference between influence without a vote and influence with a vote.

There is also a big difference between pressure with a vote and pressure without a vote.

I am also arguing that forcing scum to kill players whose votes are a threat is a feature not a flaw, and that treestumping said players is doing the scum a favor by removing the votes they would be most afraid of.

[mastina]

Give me a chance to prove myself come on guys

For the record, I respect Not_Mafia as a player and genuinely think he is a good scumhunter.

However he is also the exact type of player who is a good scumhunter in part thanks to his vote.

He does actually post content, but the majority of his threat comes from his vote.

Thus why he is a bad stump in my opinion. Not because he's a bad player (he's not, he's a good player), but because he's a bad treestump given his natural pressure.

[mastina]

DrippingGoofball is mod confirmed to be aligned with the

TOWN

.

Why Stump DGB when DGB will become conftown anyway?

VOTE: Not Known 15

VOTE: Not_Mafia

Town.

We're voting to euphemise people? Like, to make a euphemism of them?

That's what I got from the role PM too haha.

Town?


(Also gotta post this earlier than intended because for some reason my window for typing is fucked up.)

[mastina]

Have I won yet?

Well you've won a townread.

VOTE: House

I'm struggling to get a hard grasp on most of the players but jjh, Moongrass, and Not_Mafia as town I feel pretty good about; I've no such townpings on House, NK15, or really anyone else who has posted post-role-PMs, honestly.

So let's take a stab at a readslist here.

DrippingGoofball
jjh927
Not_Mafia
Moongrass

cyrus62/KorVex
Gamma Emerald
Titus
nomnomnom

Mia and Maya Fey (NancyDrew/DKKoba Hydra)
Free Money Free Tea
Not Known 15
House

Town, no read yet, lean south of null right now.

[mastina]

Are readlists usually produced this early for you mastina?

Yes, and I'm dead serious about this:

VOTE: Mia and Maya Fey

It's still possible that they are town for one simple reason. (A reason I'm not sharing right now.) But I actually legit think they're scum.

[mastina]

mastina, why am I scum?

I'm not sure you are, but you aren't feeling town to me and jjh was voting you and jjh is town here so it was the best vote I could think of.

It's also been literally years since we played together and I don't recall you being a player I could soulread even when we did play together. So I'm both a bit skeptical that I could read you well and even if I could I'm sure that ability has long since left me.

That said, I don't exactly have you as lockscum; there's a very good chance that if you're town it'll show through eventually.

It's just that right now I'm not seeing it.

[mastina]

mastina supposedly reads the nonposters as null... then has the nonposter hydra as scum.

A mastina readslist is never a mastina readslist unless it sorts nonposters in different locations.

But yes, in this case I actually

do

have a reason for placing Mia and Maya Fey that low.

mastina supposedly reads the nonposters as null... then has the nonposter hydra as scum.

Tbh I was scumreading hydra for not posting yet. I was expecting the thread to blow up with them in it.

In part because of this, yes.

[mastina]

VOTE: jjh
You need to relax my guy. We get it, you're showing you're scumhunting.

Then what are you doing?

For the record I actually think this is DKKoba as scum. I'm not sure, here, because I lack the extensive game history with DKKoba to tell; it's honestly the Nancy head that I have the ability to read better and sure, when Nancy shows up, I'll have a better grasp on the slot--if my read does a total 180, it'll be because Nancy shows herself to be town.

But off of what I've seen so far, I

think

that this is them as scum.

[mastina]

I hate over half of the posts koba has made

^
While hating posts doesn't make them inherently come from scum, in this case from Koba I think that what DKKoba is doing is actually, legitimately, genuinely, scum-indicative. There's a fair amount that I can unpack there for basically explaining why tho I feel like I should wait there until Nancy shows up. (Like I said, if the hydra is town I would expect Nancy to singlehandedly be able to 180 my read here. So, no need for me to go into detail about a scumread on DKKoba if Nancy convinces me that they are town. But if they aren't town, then I can explain why both heads feel like scum to me.)

[mastina]

i trust jjh on mastina more than i do anyone else in the game.

Just for the sake of full disclosure here; jjh is probably the best player here at reading me (Titus second best tho Titus has the tendency of OMGUSing me when I am suspicious of her which can dampen the accuracy there), buuuuuuuuuuuut, scumastina can and has pocketed jjh before. jjh and I usually have the dynamic of more or less assuming the other is town until given damn good reason to think otherwise, but even when giving sincere reads that aren't free passes, are naturally inclined to townread each other.

However, given that you are statistically more likely to be town than scum, statistically speaking, this "assume town until given damn good reason to otherwise, and if forced to give an actual non-assumed read, townreading them anyway" approach is disproportionately accurate since by the numbers we end up both town more often than not.

I'll just drop that scum think I'm an easy push in games because I am very aggressive and have an unorthodox playstyle.

It's very much not! I was looking forward to seeing the aggression from the playstyle.

The manifestation of how you are using the aggression is what leads me to believe you drew a red PM here.

So it's not the playstyle; it's what you are doing with said playstyle.

[mastina]

Why am I scum?

Strangely enough.

I actually think that this might make House town.

I'm not

sure

, but I THINK it's town from him. Not enough to locktown him but enough to move him out of scum for sure.

DrippingGoofball
jjh927
Moongrass

Not_Mafia

House

cyrus62/KorVex
Gamma Emerald
Titus
nomnomnom


Free Money Free Tea
Not Known 15
Mia and Maya Fey (NancyDrew/DKKoba Hydra)

Locktown, townread, lean town, null, various shades of south of null.

[mastina]

I'll be looking at this later. There's also a good chance I'll have to vla soon. I'll know more later this week.

Town. <3

Can you ellaborate what though is your thought process in this regard?

Can? Yes.

Will?

Not until after Nancy shows up and only if the scumread remains.

[mastina]

What am i doing with it?

Well in a sentence, tearing down townreads rather than building them up.

Aggression doesn't need to find scum to be useful; aggression is incredibly good at finding town, too, and helping to solidify players as being town. But aggression that is neither identifying scum nor building up town, aggression that is only tearing down town, is aggression that is at the very least, anti-town, and by a burden of proficiency in thinking you a competent player, I would assume that anti-town aggression that's tearing down town rather than identifying and building up town or identifying and ripping into scum, comes from you as scum.

[mastina]

do you have a scumgame i can look at?

Several. Most recently was DEFCON. Before that, Warehouse 13. Before that, MBOS I. You can go further back, too, with XP Mafia 2, Anime UPick 2 (where I made like...2-3 posts with the rest being all Alisae), Skyrim mod uPick, I can go further back than that, too, find more as well, I've had literally at this point prolly 100+ onsite scumgames, these are some of the most recent ones tho.

DrippingGoofball
jjh927
Moongrass

Titus
Not_Mafia

House

cyrus62/KorVex
Gamma Emerald
nomnomnom


Free Money Free Tea
Not Known 15
Mia and Maya Fey (NancyDrew/DKKoba Hydra)

Locktown, townread, lean town, null, various shades of south of null.

[mastina]

1:

MOD: V/LA until Sunday

. I got my second vaccine shot today; there's a high chance I get knocked out of commission for circa 48 hours. And then I have personal stuff circa Thursday/Friday. And Saturday is my day off. I won't be not posting but I might not be able to post as much and comment on as much as I want to.

Speaking of which,

2:
UNVOTE: Mia and Maya Fey
I explicitly have not read everything (I've read to circa page 35), and even if I had I need to reply to everything from page 24 onward, but I need to do this with commentary.

My Nancy scumdar is a bit haywire--towards her earlier posting, it looked flat, lifeless, forced, and fake, which would seem like scum...
...HOWEVER, the later Nancy posts that I saw actually looked like the town Nancy I know. Lots and lots and lots of posts in a short period of time that, more and more, look, more and more, like Nancy as town. The more Nancy posted, the more it looked town to me. That, aside from the fact that Nancy posted up that much of a storm in the first place. While scum-Nancy can post a lot short-term, it's not something sustainable, so the posting looks town.

I'm not sure which to trust, the earlier looking scum or the later town, BUT, gun to my head, if I were forced to choose between town or scum right now, I would choose that Nancy is town, thus the unvote.

I'd prefer for nsg to help recalibrate my Nancy scumdar tho to see what nsg thinks.

Now I've got more to read and a lot to respond to and I may or may not be able to but if I can, I will do so, hopefully right now, if I'm up to it.

[mastina]

I'm not super impressed with Gamma, rn.

I realize Gamma's content isn't beyond the capability of what Gamma can do as scum, but I am inclined to believe that this is still Gamma as town.

DrippingGoofball
jjh927
Moongrass

Gamma Emerald
House
Titus

Not_Mafia
Mia and Maya Fey (NancyDrew/DKKoba Hydra)

nomnomnom

cyrus62/KorVex

Free Money Free Tea
Not Known 15

This is where I more or less am at right now--jjh and Moongrass are the only two reads I'm locktowning, but I do feel good about Gamma and House right now, and to a lesser extent, Titus. Not_Mafia I mostly have as gut-town and Mia and Maya Fey are here, pending better reflection and ideally nsg thoughts on Nancy to see if nsg thinks that the later town-Nancy pings are correct. (If they are, Mia and Maya Fey shoot up to the conftown tier, but I do need time to reflect and for nsg to also give her thoughts.)

VOTE: Not Known 15

[mastina]

This reminds me...why were you bragging earlier about my ability to read you when you captured me in W13?

I don't recall any bragging; I said that in this playerlist, you are probably the second-best player at reading me, behind jjh. That's not a brag, that's just an objective fact. Second-best doesn't mean perfect; it means second best. Notably, the best player at reading me has also been snowed by scumastina so you also having been snowed doesn't mean you're not still the second-best at reading me.

Btw for the record: the scum-looking Nancy pings were immediate on this page, continuing into the next page.

The vibes later on are more ambiguous, more muddy, where I can see them as either alignment from Nancy. These muddier, either-alignment, areas are started around the next page. These could-be-either-alignment posts continue into the next page, but even already by that point are starting to look more town than scum.

By about this page, however, it progressively goes more and more into "this screams town-Nancy" range. The further and further it goes, the more and more it looks like town-Nancy. The train of thought present on that page and the following scream town-Nancy, and not only that, feel based in reasonable logic even aside from Nancy meta.

Speaking of addressing Nancy tho:

How can you possibly have a read on us when

I haven’t even posted yet

?

You answered your own question here, Nancy.

Town!you would have waited for me

I did! Sort-of.

I’d really love to know why anyone thinks I’m ever an easy D1 miselim candidate.

You're not!
There's one of two worlds.
EITHER:
1: You're town in which case you're not a D1 miselim candidate because you'll obvtown and become a mandatory nightkill,
OR:
2: You're scum in which case you can't be a miselim.

Those are the only two possible worlds to exist. And right now I'm inclined to think the former (town) over the latter.

Well she also put us at E-3 before I posted, so that’s really bad no matter how you look at it.

Well for a start, I was reading chronologically at the time and the post I voted you in took time for me to write up. As I was writing it, you had zero votes on you--from where I was at, I wasn't vote #4. I was vote #1.

But there's also the fact that I see no problem with wagoning a slot to a level that there is a wagon on them but an elimination can't happen in any way shape or form. It's good for content. I realize Not_Mafia is in the game so any L-1 is effectively a L-0, so every L-2 is effectively an L-1, but at L-3, even L-2, you were in no danger.

[mastina]

please tell me how you came up with your reads so fast

Skill.

Feels similar to animals upick 2, but with a hint of desperation to hear how I specifically am reading her

I would agree that the first two pages of Nancy's posts resemble the tone and overall content of Animals UPick 2, but the later posts don't resemble her play there at all imo.

854 is part of the reason I am voting for Not Known 15. It's hard to put into words what makes it a scum post, but the vote on Mia and Maya Fey while making what feels like an insincere complaint about spam especially directed towards a player not even guilty of it (jjh is not in fact the worst spammer in the thread), make it feel like a post just disproportionately likely to come from scum.

VOTE: fmft
This slot has been openwolfy and id like to shift attention here.

I actually agree with this and the dialog on the slot given previously.

If I wasn't voting NK15 I would be voting Free Money Free Tea.

I guess we could just assume they're really bad scum?

Or maybe I'm just an alt trying to troll all of you.

Whoever you're an alt of I would assume scum as I don't see any player as an alt playing this way as town on an alt.

[mastina]

Ah yes, Polar Bear Express hydra in PookyTheMagicalBear v Flavor Leaf.
(Nancy was scum)

I also reviewed that game.
I reviewed a bunch of Nancy games last night when I did my reading, that one and Animals UPick 2 included. I came to the conclusion that the early pages of Nancy's posts this game were similar, but that the later pages Nancy has shown in this game don't resemble either of those scumgames.

Which is to say, I think that this is Nancy as town overall. I

see

the similarity to the scumgame, but the more and more Nancy posts, the further and further away from the similarities she moves, the more and more she looks town.

I do want nsg to weigh in there tho to give her thoughts on the subject, because while I think Nancy is town here, I'm not so certain of it to move her to locktown yet.

[mastina]

Nancy has activity going for them, but their reaction to getting voted even after i told off other slots to get them to focus on other things has pinged me negatively tbh.

I might be mistaken on this but I feel that regardless of her alignment, Nancy would, with a wagon on her, especially by players she expects to be able to read her, have some amount of attention on this.

I think that the key difference isn't doing that, so much as it is, what she is doing

aside

from that. And/Or the

way

she does it. The way she focuses her attention and what she does aside from the focus there.

Both of those in this game feel different than what I've seen and would expect from scum-Nancy.

[mastina]

Idk why ppl are town reading cyrus. I'm not vibing with his posts

at all

.

^

FMFT & cyrus are the two I'm comfortable voting at this point.

Ditto but add in NK15 for me, too.

[mastina]

VOTE: jjh

For the record my read on Not_Mafia has thoroughly deteriorated.

[mastina]

DrippingGoofball
jjh927
Moongrass
House

Gamma Emerald
Titus

Mia and Maya Fey (NancyDrew/DKKoba Hydra)


nomnomnom

Not_Mafia
cyrus62/KorVex

Free Money Free Tea
Not Known 15

More or less where I'm at.
I'll take the leap of faith on House being town here.

So this is locktown townread think-town null possible scum scumread.

[mastina]

VOTE: jjh

For the record my read on Not_Mafia has thoroughly deteriorated.

why cuse he voted jh?

No, because I have seen what Not_Mafia as town looks like and this isn't looking like Not_Mafia as town. It's what he's doing (and not doing), not who he's voting.

But yes the vote is not a good one, either.

[mastina]

I'll take the leap of faith on House being town here.

A leap of faith would better describe him being a town read, not lock town.

No, he's already a townread--the leap of faith is promoting him to locktown.

[mastina]

VOTE: jjh

This is completely out of nowhere
Please explain

It is also a bad vote.
Please explain.

[mastina]

1:

MOD: V/LA until Sunday

. I got my second vaccine shot today; there's a high chance I get knocked out of commission for circa 48 hours. And then I have personal stuff circa Thursday/Friday. And Saturday is my day off. I won't be not posting but I might not be able to post as much and comment on as much as I want to.

MOD: As a reminder, this is a thing, especially today.

I have a rather accelerated heart rate right now as one of my symptoms from the second Moderna shot. It's thankfully not a medical emergency...but it IS something that anxiety would exemplify.

And games of mafia are...not kind on the heart, to say the least.

So I gotta take today off at minimum.

[mastina]

(As a reminder, I am still V/LA today and tomorrow. I did come online to post this thread, but I'm not actually lucid enough/have the time/focused enough/etc. to play mafia today. I almost forgot to post that thread. I was supposed to do it literally over 12 hours ago; I meant to do it when I woke up today, but I forgot, got distracted, figured I'd do it later, thought I needed to word it better, etc., and woe and behold, at 3 am a thread that was meant to have '2 weeks' in its title now has '13 days' in it because of it basically being almost a full day late. And that's for a thread that's actually

important

, one which I probably STILL handled sloppily, it's messy, it's not the thread I meant to make when I planned on making it yesterday, I just am that incompetent right now.)

(I promise that I'll get fully up to date on everything within 48 hours of Sunday. But I DO need the time off for personal stuff. I promise I can play the game and will play it just fine once I am back, butyeah. I have Very Important RL stuff going on and I hope you understand that.)

[mastina]

Vote Count 1.FINAL

Not Known 15 (7):

Free Money Free Tea, nomnomnom, Not_Mafia

Moongrass (1):

Gamma Emerald,

Free Money Free Tea (1):

Titus,

Mia and Maya Fey (1):

Not Known 15,

Titus (1):

jjh927,

Not Voting (2):

House, cyrus62,

For the record.

Given the complete lack of counterwagon at end of day.

Chances are astronomically high there was a scum busser.

And the names I left are my top candidates:

VOTE: Free Money Free Tea

Especially since of the names off the D1 wagon. Who would be scum? I don't think it's jjh or Titus; I don't think it's House; even cyrus, I can see as town. So if scum didn't bus, where are they?

In other words, scum bussed, and the three names I've left, FMFT, nomnom, and Not_Mafia, top my charts for being the prime bussers candidates.

[mastina]

nomnomnom would not answer his door after Night 1.

Er.

*ahem*

Vote Count 1.FINAL

Not Known 15 (7):

Free Money Free Tea, Not_Mafia

Moongrass (1):

Gamma Emerald,

Free Money Free Tea (1):

Titus,

Mia and Maya Fey (1):

Not Known 15,

Titus (1):

jjh927,

Not Voting (2):

House, cyrus62,

For the record.

Given the complete lack of counterwagon at end of day.

Chances are astronomically high there was a scum busser.

And the names I left are my top candidates:

VOTE: Free Money Free Tea

Especially since of the names off the D1 wagon. Who would be scum? I don't think it's jjh or Titus; I don't think it's House; even cyrus, I can see as town. So if scum didn't bus, where are they?

In other words, scum bussed, and the three names I've left, FMFT, and Not_Mafia, top my charts for being the prime bussers candidates.

[mastina]

Honestly, I don't see you living too MyLo anyway.

Honestly I don't see us getting to mylo anyway.

[mastina]

Killing nom is something I would have done as scum. Hammering NK is not. I would have gone all in on bussing NK from the start and I sure as hell would not have pushed the players I have generating as much content as there is because a low info, low profile day would've enabled me to coast to end game after bussing.

For the record this is one of the reasons I am clearing jjh.

jjh was one of the pushers on NK15, early, often, pretty hard.

He hopped OFF at the end of the day.

Scum that bus tend to commit to the bus; it's usually only town who hop off of a wagon on scum in the manner jjh did.

[mastina]

Mastina how strong is your townread of the hydra? I need someone to sanity check me there.

Weaker than ideal, almost included them in the initial list of possible bussers but then my gut told me not to and that they are town. For the time being, I'll trust that gut.

[mastina]

Jjh hopped off after it was inevitable.

Precisely!

What's the scum motive for hopping off of a wagon on scum after the wagon on scum is inevitable?

I can think of none, because as you yourself state, if the wagon was inevitable, leaving the wagon doesn't do a scum-jjh any good because there's no hope of saving NK15.

What's the town motive for hopping off of a wagon on scum after the wagon on scum is inevitable?

I can think of literally dozens of reasons. Among them what you said yourself: vanity, to make a point, still committed to the scum flip, etc. All traits I would expect to come from town.

[mastina]

I pretty clearly didn't pull the reason for voting nk out of my ass.

Agreed; you pulled it out of the scum PT.

[mastina]

So FMFT wagon anyone?

I mean that's where I'm voting, so.
Yes.

[mastina]

So is FMFT actually gonna try to play?
Cus right now they look the worst out of everyone but they’re hardly doing anything memorable.

I lowkey think the scumteam doesn't have anyone on it that wants to try and thus everyone who is trying is actually town this game.

[mastina]

No, meant confirmable, as in my role can be confirmed

While I'm skeptical of this as Not_Mafia doesn't look town by play to me and N_M's claim is all over the place, I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt here.

It's cute that you're trying to solve JJH but unless there's some extreme fuckery in the scum PR's this is an mechanical win from my POV.

I will also trust this.

If N_M is a town investigative that is conftowning me and Gamma, then that means possible scum would be:
Titus
cyrus62
jjh927
Mia and Maya Fey
House
Moongrass

Vote Count 1.01

Free Money Free Tea (4):

House, Not Known 15, nomnomnom, Moongrass,

Vote Count 1.03

Mia and Maya Fey (4):

jjh927, mastina, Not Known 15, Free Money Free Tea,

Vote Count 1.08

Not Known 15 (5):

mastina, jjh927, Moongrass, nomnomnom, DrippingGoofball,

jjh927 (4):

Mia and Maya Fey, Not_Mafia, Titus, cyrus62,

I would be incredibly comfortable calling jjh town here--I'm town, DGB is town, nomnomnom is flipped town, so the only possible busser on NK15 at this stage is Moongrass, meaning the wagon was largely town-driven. And while Not_Mafia if we're trusting him to be a town investigative would thus inherently be town, the rest of the jjh wagon doesn't look so good.

Vote Count 1.09

Not Known 15 (5):

mastina, nomnomnom, DrippingGoofball, House, Free Money Free Tea,

House's hop-on here could be a bus tho as the jjh wagon was waning and no wagon was replacing it. (The closest is the Moongrass wagon...which has two conftown players, per N_M's result, and the flipped scum.)

Vote Count 1.11

Not Known 15 (4):

mastina, Free Money Free Tea, cyrus62, Mia and Maya Fey,

cyrus and Mia/Maya Fey join the list of possible bussers imo.

Moongrass technically could be an early bussed-while-it-was-still-distancing-then-decided-to-rejoin-the-wagon-later, altho I would genuinely say that Moongrass looks town.

So we're guaranteed to have one busser--if Titus isn't scum, guaranteed to have two.

VOTE-wise, I would rank most likely scum busser to least likely scum busser as House > cyrus > Mia and Maya Fey > Moongrass > jjh

PLAY-wise, I would rank most likely scum to least likely scum as...honestly, not sure; House looks town, cyrus's earlygame sucked but later play looked town, Mia and Maya Fey had a dismal earlygame and their latest contributions are in line with that but their midgame looked pretty town; Moongrass has looked town to me the entire game; jjh has looked town to me the entire time; even Titus has had moments of townness.

Loosely speaking my most town to least town would be something like:
jjh

Moongrass

Mia and Maya Fey ~= cyrus ~= House

Titus

Can't vote Titus tho because that'd be L-1 on her with Not_Mafia not already voting her.

And I'd like to reiterate that I've not got good reads right now. Everyone not conftown has reason to be town, when two people are going to be scum.

[mastina]

Oh hey there's a wagon on Moongrass and Titus is no longer at L-2 which with N_M in the game would be L-1?

VOTE: Titus

That means I can safely do this then!

[mastina]

I'd kinda like to talk to Mastina, NSG, DGB, or either or both heads of the Feys right now, but I don't think any of them are here

I've been here and been reading offline, but I honestly don't have much to say.

I know I

should

.

That I should be reviewing the whole game, because everyone has reason to look town but two players must be scum and thus two of the players who look town, aren't, and that I should be trying to analyze over all of them to see which are the most likely to be genuinely town and which are the most likely to just be scum.

I know that's what I

should

be doing.

But all I have the energy to do is to keep up with the posts being made. I can theoretically interact with the posts being made...but most of the content being posted...isn't something that I really know how to interact with, how to make something tangible out of it.

Heck I almost skipped over replying to you here at all in the first place.

Her blog is in her signature, and it is worth being aware that over 'business as usual' Mastina's IRL state of mind will fluctuate.

When I am placing Mastina in early game, I take a look at the nature and frequency of the posting in her blog, noting that if she hasn't posted in a long while that is a bad sign. Her level of general motivation is a predictor for the level of motivation she can put into a mafia game. Town!Mastina has a higher level of motivation than scum!Mastina. Compare the level of effort with the expected level of effort based on the blog and you have an accurate Mastina read

Reasonably accurate, yes. It's not foolproof but I will confirm that this is a thing and that yes it is accurate enough.

You know what
VOTE: Cyrus

VOTE: cyrus

I will weigh in on this though.

Titus is scum with her scumbuddy House defending her ~= Titus is scum with a wrong-town-House defending her > Titus is town with a scum-House whiteknighting her for the towncred > both Titus and House are town.

That's what I currently feel like. I feel like the world where Titus and House are both town is the least likely world we live in, and that both of the two most likely worlds have Titus as scum. So I'm not moving my vote from there. Titus scum House scum, Titus scum House town, I'm not sure which but I think one of those two is the most likely right now (followed by Titus town House scum), meaning that I don't want Titus to escape the elimination today.

If it's Titus-House, gg easy I guess.
If it's Titus + someone else, it doesn't look like Moongrass is fairly likely. The most likely are cyrus or Mia+Maya Fey.
If it's House + someone else, it also doesn't look like Moongrass is fairly likely. The most likely would probably be cyrus but this is just guesswork.

Regardless, I feel like a Titus elimination is the best, followed by a House elimination, to give us an idea of what world we live in. Titus-scum, House-scum, or the worst case scenario of neither being scum. (In that world, I'd need to look at which 2-person combo was most likely in Moongrass, cyrus, and Mia+Maya Fey because they would legit be the only options. But I'd prefer to cross that bridge if and only if we came to it.)

[mastina]

I think Cyrus could be partners with anyone, actually

Usually that's a sign that they're partners with nobody.

I do not like the cyrus elimination compared to House/Titus eliminations.

It feels like you had Titus and to a lesser extent House dead to rights--I honestly thought your cyrus vote was baiting Titus, and that Titus took the bait, and that you were going to reveal that it was bait for Titus, because I was that sure you were on the right track with Titus's desperation as it were and that the sudden emergence and willingness on her end to spontaneously wagon cyrus was more proof of her being scum.

[mastina]

The problem is if we vote cyrus and he flips town, then we lim titus same thing and then me then it's a perfect scumgame.

We have ten alive.

If we eliminate Titus and she flips town, tomorrow we have 7-9 alive, average of 8. (7 if a town causes an extra death, 9 if town prevents a death, 8 if one mafia kill goes through.)

If we eliminate House and he flips town, on D5 we have 5-8 alive, average of 6 (8 if two deaths were prevented, 7 if only one death was prevented, 5 if a town caused an extra death, 6 by default if two mafia kills go through).

In this worst-case scenario, we have 2 eliminations for 3 suspects: you, cyrus, and Mia and Maya Fey. In this worst-case scenario, I quite like those odds. We're guaranteed to have at least two conftown alive at that point, possibly more, and it's possible Not_Mafia generates some extra results by this point in time.

I quite like those odds and I'm reasonably confident in my ability in a 6p mylo to sort 3 slots to find the most likely combos and least likely combos.


In contrast: if we eliminate cyrus and he flips town, tomorrow we have 7-9 alive, average of 8. (7 if a town causes an extra death, 9 if town prevents a death, 8 if one mafia kill goes through.)

We then can only eliminate a maximum of one in Titus/House.

If the one we eliminate also flips town, in mylo, we have the other alive and they are the default elimination--if they were town, then we lose.

Or even worse.

If we eliminate cyrus and then we for whatever reason eliminate, sayyy, Moongrass and both flip town.

We're then left in a 6p mylo with BOTH House AND Titus.

Regardless, I don't like these odds nearly as much.

So I prefer the Titus today House tomorrow, reassess if needed after that approach.

[mastina]

I’m half tempted to vote Cyrus because IMO depending on the flip it confirms/denies certain scenarios

cyrus is the worst flip specifically because of what jjh said:
cyrus could be scum with anyone.
If he's scum, it's nice that he flips scum sure but it doesn't narrow things down at all.
If he's town, it doesn't narrow things down at all because nobody is cleared from his townflip.

For the record, here's my breakdown of every possible scumteam:

Titus-cyrus: possible, albeit requiring that Titus is making a desperation bus against cyrus. As a result, not the most likely, but more likely than...
Titus-Moon: unlikely, given the way they have interacted.
Titus-Mia+Maya: definitely possible, as one of the two possibilities I see other than...
Titus-House: has actually astonishingly good logic for why this would be the team backed by both individuals' actions.
Titus-jjh: ahahahahaha

No.

cyrus-Moon: a possible team, admittedly, but not one I favor.
cyrus-Mia+Maya: also possible, but also not one I favor.
cyrus-House: if cyrus is scum, this is the team most likely, but I am doubting cyrus as scum and if this is the team I'd prefer we eliminate House first.
cyrus-jjh: ahahahahaha

No.

Mia+Maya-Moon: Okay this one's possible I guess but not exactly the most probable imo.
Mia+Maya-House: I doubt it. I don't have any concrete reason to doubt it other than gut but I have the doubt there regardless.
Mia+Maya-jjh: ahahahahaha

No.

House-Moon: Incredibly unlikely given their interactions imo.
House-jjh: ahahahahaha

No.

Moon-jjh: pretty much the only jjh team where the answer isn't a laugh with a no, in that it is the only one that is even

possible

. Key word being 'possible'. Not probable, not even plausible imo. It's like a .01%, as close to impossible as it can be without being labeled impossible.

Did I miss any?

'Cause if not.

I think you can see why I favor Titus > House > any other elimination here.

I can go into more details for these teams if you want me to break it down in more detail tho, but I think these teams are pretty self-evident.

[mastina]

Titus, you're missing that I think scum would have made the assumption that NM was a weak hider or similar based on how telegraphed his targets were, and so if they wanted to remove him they would need to go for his target

I'm targetting nomnomnomnom tonight

Makes you think, doesn't it?

Granted N_M made more 'targeting' posts after that, butstill, it's at least possible scum thought he was a hider on nom.

For the record--I would explicitly expect that to make Titus be scum here as the players most likely to try and kill the hider hide target are imo most to least, Titus > House > Mia+Maya > Moongrass I guess >>>>>>> cyrus >>>>>> jjh. (I would expect jjh to not do so.)

Granted, I feel the need to specify:

I am deliberately avoiding PR speculation. I obviously have my thoughts on the subject, but it is explicitly anti-town to engage in this line of reasoning by and large.

By that I mean:
It is okay to say, "I believe that *lengthy speculation* is what the scumteam believed, and the scumteam believing *lengthy speculation*, took these actions."
It's not okay to speculate "I believe *lengthy speculation* is what has happened here", to give the scumteam any hints, if that makes sense.

Speculating what the scumteam was probably thinking is good; speculating what probably happened is bad because it can help the scumteam and doesn't really give us anything we don't already have right now.

[mastina]

Scum would target Mastina for a nightkill because Not Mafia said he would target her and scum had all the same reason you have right now to suspect he is a weak hider

Also I am a NRG reviewer so I have a good understanding of what is Normal. (This game doesn't exactly apply for what'd be Balanced in a Normal, but if that were needed, I could give insight there, too, even tho I suspect it's less useful knowledge.)

Also, I can be an annoyingly persistent and stubborn voice of reason.

Also, I can actually be relied upon to do the deep delves into the most likely combos when push does come to shove, weighing the different possibilities and finding the ones that are most probable.

I wouldn't be surprised to be the nightkill if y'all flip cyrus and he ends up town, just as an insurance policy against me persuading you to make the actually better calls for the elimination.

[mastina]

You've read the recent pages and don't think that's town!Titus?

Everyone looks town to me, jjh. Titus included. I have to approach things from a more logical objective standpoint: two players who look like they are town, aren't actually town.

When it comes to two players that are looking town but aren't actually town, that means I have to look at what they are doing. The interactions between the slots, along with what their interactions are accomplishing. The normal "this looks like them as town" isn't good enough, because everyone looks like town to me with reasonably compelling reasons for that to be the case.

I can write a towncase on Titus and yes, Titus's more recent posting would be among it, sure.

But I can write a towncase on House.

I can write a towncase on cyrus.

I can write a towncase on Moongrass.

The hardest towncase to write would be Mia and Maya Fey surprisingly enough, but while I might have the most issue in writing a towncase for them, I also have the hardest time slotting them into most scumteams so in that sense there's a decent towncase for them, too.

Two players who I can write a towncase on because they look like town, aren't actually town and are scum.

And when it comes to looking at the deeper level at interactions and motives.

cyrus doesn't fit the scum profile nearly as well--specifically because he's, so to speak, n00bscum (not newbscum). I realize that you think he just looks like obvscum and that n00bscum that looks like obvscum would just be scum...but I actually don't think he DOES look like obvscum. There's actually a fair amount of nuance in his thought process and it feels like for cyrus to be scum, you both need to give him less credit than he deserves AND more credit than he deserves. I don't really have a way to explain that, unfortunately, but for cyrus to be scum it both feels like he must be literally the worst scum player and yet also literally be pulling off subtle nuanced scum plays that are of a much higher caliber and that you can't have him be both but for him to be scum requires him to be both.

It's not impossible for him to be scum, but it doesn't seem to fit nearly as well especially given overall interactions from other players.

Titus however, when you get past her play looking like town-Titus (which it does), and you look more into what she's doing and the motives for it, does fit as scum quite well. That's not a guarantee that she's scum, but she definitely fits as scum, especially since there's one thing from Titus that I'd expect to see from her if she were town that I'm not seeing. She seems unusually survivalistic and unusually not-fatalistic. Her content looks like her towngame, yes, but deeper down she doesn't feel town to me on a fundamental level.

House's early play looked quite town, but similarly, his later play looks less motivated by "solving the game" and more motivated by "okay I need to troubleshoot how to get to a workable endgame here". He still looks town by play, but the things he is doing look like they are motivated by being scum. It is possible that he is passionate town that is strongly opinionated, but to me he actually looks like he is trying to steer the gamestate in a direction where he has a chance to endgame, and is highly performative.

Moongrass just feels town on every level to me, almost as much as you do, jjh.

Mia and Maya Fey are surprisingly silent all things considered, which is a bit of a concern. But while it is a bit of a concern given the players involved should be more active and involved, it's less damning imo than it could be because while they're not being active, that also means they're not trying to steer the gamestate in a direction that gives scum a possible win.

I realize these are scattered, not satisfactory, notes on where I am right now but I really think that a Titus elimination into a House elimination gives us the best chance at winning here, because while everyone looks town by play, two players must be scum and when I look at the deeper levels, the players who have the highest chances of being scum who look town are Titus and House with the most realistic of scumteam combos between them.

[mastina]

You don't find Titus' recent posting town indicative?

I suppose I can say it this way: I find it town-indicative for Titus, but I find the posting of everyone to be town-indicative, so I have to look beyond what looks town indicative to delve into the possible scumteam combos and what the players are doing given the possible scumteam combos and what they hope to accomplish with their approach.

It's actually a bit of a return to my mastin2 days rather than my mastina days, but in this specific case, I actually felt it was necessary to, so to speak, regress towards that standard, again, because everyone looks town and yet two players by necessity aren't. Two players who to me, look to be town, cannot actually be town.

Trying to weigh surface-level feels for which players feel the most town, and then voting off the ones who feel the least town, just...doesn't feel like it's the way we win here. I genuinely feel the way to win is to look at all the players who look town, and then analyze their possible scumteams, eliminate the impossible pairs, and then judge off of the remaining possible pairs which are the ones which look the most likely to be true, off of what the players are doing rather than how they look when doing it.

My possible scumteam pairings are (not necessarily ordered most to least mind you):
Titus-House
House-cyrus
Titus-Mia+Maya
House-Mia+Maya
cyrus-Mia+Maya

Moongrass-cyrus (nothing eliminating them as a pair but I think Moongrass is town)
Moongrass-Mia+Maya (nothing eliminating them as a pair but I think Moongrass is town)

Titus-cyrus (almost impossible but not quite)

These are the only teams that I see as possible.

And if you look at the play of each individual in question keeping in mind that these are the only possible pairs.
I struggle to see cyrus as scum here in most cases; I see Titus and House both maneuvering in ways that feel like they are trying to shift the gamestate in a way that is more favorable to their chances of setting up a viable scum endgame. That doesn't mean cyrus can't be scum, and it doesn't mean Titus and House are for sure scum.

But I see Titus positioning in ways that feel like they are setting up for a chance to endgame, and I see House positioning in ways that feel like they are setting up for a chance to endgame, and I see cyrus as just being...cyrus. It's possible cyrus is a pawn of House (in which case, eliminate House first), it's possible that cyrus is just scum left on his own because Nancy and DKKoba don't care enough as scum with their scumbuddy dead on D1 and have abandoned cyrus. But while those are possible, it feels like the best options are House and Titus here.

[mastina]

Honestly I think it's pretty memes that the wagon includes all of me, Titus, Moon, and House

And that's not a concern to you...why?

If cyrus were scum, that would mean either his remaining scumbuddy was bussing bringing the game down to one scum with an investigative still around...

...Or that if cyrus were scum, his scumbuddy would necessarily be one of {Mia and Maya Fey, Moongrass} (the latter of which would be incredibly unlikely here imo).

I just don't think that cyrus is scum here.

And I'm sticking to that.

[mastina]

So we have scum PR fuckery happening. NK was an planned buss. N_M openly choreographing his every single move instead of crumbing, two awful back to back eliminations, not respecting the time left to deadline even though i’ve specifically asked for it, not eliming in my PoE at all, killing pne of my townreads.
Whew, that was a mouthful. But i had to get that rant out there.

Hey I argued my heart out against the cyrus elimination.

I SAID it was a bad idea.

I SAID I preferred Titus > House > literally any other elimination.

I'm rather miffed that nobody unvoted cyrus while I was catching up and very clearly stating my preference.

And House placing cyrus at L-1 was utterly unacceptable.

I very much want to vote one of Titus or House right now but I owe y'all the promised due diligence where I actually theorycraft and go over the possible combos.

[mastina]

Oh and Titus and House openly PR hunting in thread and exposing N_M as a hider for some reason? Where the fuck is the town motivation in that?

A good question!

One which I am tempted, very oh so much tempted, to back with a vote.

[mastina]

How come scum got two shots? Or is one something like a poisoner?

I’m just wondering how that goes with the normal-sequence design philosophy that this game purportedly was using

Yeah there's absolutely zero ways for scum to have a multikill in Normals, when this game did have what could literally only be a scum nightkill.

Either Jingle had a critical fail of research when looking into Normals given that there is no allowed scum role that would allow them to get two kills, or he diverged from the Normal roles when designing the scumteam's roles.

Either way I gotta admit I'm a bit disappointed--Jingle could've balanced the commute IC + weak hider combo without giving the scum a non-Normal role (meaning that if he did give scum a killing role that makes it not Normal, it was a poor design choice); Jingle should know that killing roles for scum are not Normal so if he thought "oh a vig is normal so scum having a 1x vig is Normal" then he had a critical research failure.

Basically, there's 100% a scum killing role of some sort, which is 100% not Normal, which is disappointing because the town roles aren't such that Jingle would NEED to diverge from Normal roles on the scumteam to balance them. Thus the disappointment in Jingle having done so.

[mastina]

I’ve wanted Titus dead since day 2.
When will it happen?

Honestly.

If nsg gave her blessing, I'd just #yolovote Titus right now.

Because yes.

I do as a matter of fact think it's Titus+House right now.

I owe the game due diligence but if both the treestumps were on the same page as me, I'd just be down to instavote, caution be damned.

[mastina]

The DGB kill > mastina is really bothering me. I'm not sure how ballsy the scum team are to leave mastina here with Titus given that mastina has been advocating a Titus lim for a couple of days here. Sure it could be wifom but it is a big gamble for low chance of return.

I mean.

Literally publicly confirmed town > player who is considered conftown but which could, theoretically, be not-conftown. (See also: Titus was saying yesterday I wasn't conftown in spite of Not_Mafia clearing me. Which is something that is kinda damning for Titus imo as Titus trying to open me up to potentially being a mislynch is a thing. Basically, Titus's suspicion on me is explanation enough for the lack of kill there.)

So me being alive isn't too shocking. It wouldn't have been surprising if I DID die, because of my strong preference for Titus/House and like a 90-95% chance there's a minimum of one scum there (even if it's not both of them, I don't think you're scum, Moongrass, but the 5-10% is the remaining where you are), but I understand why I am alive. Scum decided that killing literally conftown beyond all measure of doubt > killing conftown who could be shaded via occam's razor violations speculating about hypothetical scum PRs that COULD make the inno not be an inno.

[mastina]

(I'm sorry that I'm not analyzing things right now, it's literally 7 am, I need sleep. I wish I could say that I was doing prep work for the big Coming Out Day, but no, I was wasting it. Sorry. I will try to do better tomorrow, but I can't guarantee it.)

[mastina]

Mia and Maya Fey are obviously town.

I'm not AS sure of this but I am seeing more and more town in them, so I see where this is coming from and overall find myself agreeing.

I also am seeing Moongrass as town here.

There's also another contributing factor.

If either Mia and Maya Fey or Moongrass were scum, all they would need to do to win the game is to sheep me. Insist it is Titus+House, case them, commit to that being the pair, and be on my side, be my ally, try to sway me to their side. If either of them were scum they could just have done that and had a huge chance of winning, by winning over the other (Moongrass calling Mia and Maya Fey would be disproportionately effective because Nancy in particular is a sucker for townreading players who townread her; to a lesser extent, Mia and Maya Fey townreading Moongrass would likely win Moongrass over), and by having me on their side. Me + the other = guarantee of 3 votes at their disposal, and if Gamma backed me or them, that's 4. Enough to get an elimination through.

...Instead?

...Instead, Mia and Maya Fey and Moongrass are showing quite a lot of paranoia towards each other. This pretty much rules out them being scum-scum for sure, but also vastly increases the odds BOTH are town here.

[mastina]

The odds of Gamma being a fake clear are much slimmer than mastina. NM is a known troll. I don't see scum deducing he actually was a PR.

Btw I can shut down the line of paranoia thought with one sentence proving that I am conftown here but I am deliberately refraining from doing so just to see who buys into the paranoia and tries selling it as a potentially legit thing.

[mastina]

How do you feel about gamma?

Also town for similar but different reasons.

[mastina]

(Realistically speaking here: I am not voting anyone other than Titus or House here today. Gamma is conftown and even were he not, this is Gamma's towngame anyway so he's not scum. I don't see a world where both Moongrass and Mia+Maya Fey are scum; I don't see that as being the scumteam here. So realistically, there is a MINIMUM of one scum in House+Titus. It's still

possible

for one of them to be town, which is why I haven't placed my vote down because IF one is town, I need to make sure I am voting the one that is scum. It's a moot point if both are scum, obv, but IF one is town I need to make sure I vote the one that is scum.)

[mastina]

I townread mastina independently of the clear so I still believe she is town, and more than likely not, confirmed town.

Confirmed town is a mech clear. She's not.

I literally am mechanically cleared.

Not_Mafia investigated me with a Weak Hider N2.

People have pointed out that there are scum roles that could block a hider hiding behind scum saving them, but literally every single role that could block a weak hider hiding behind scum from death runs into the same problem. And that problem is why I am conftown, because there is no way to explain the problem AND me not being conftown. You can only explain one, or the other, and if you explain me as being not-conftown you're left with the glaring problem.

[mastina]

Not_Mafia crumbs visiting you.
Scum partner jailkeeps you.
Scum no kill.
Result: Fake clear on mastina.

Doesn't work that way. Weak Hider dies if they hide behind scum; jailkeeper doesn't stop the hider visit.

If Not_Mafia hid behind scum and scum targeted that scum with a jailkeeper, Not_Mafia still dies.

[mastina]

Jailkeeper does stop the hider visit. The mod literally confirmed this.

If the jailkeeper targeted Not_Mafia?

Sure!

A jailkeeper targeting Not_Mafia would stop Not_Mafia's visit.

If the jailkeeper targeted Not_Mafia's hide target?

Nope, Not_Mafia's hide still goes through.

But there's a problem with the theory of a mafia jailkeeper jailkeeping Not_Mafia.

[mastina]

What's the problem with a mafia roleblocker or jailkeeper targeting not_mafia?

If mafia used a roleblocker on Not_Mafia, why was there no kill N2? DGB couldn't have blocked it with a commute because the commuter was disabled after D1. And Not_Mafia is the only other player the scum could've killed that night. If scum roleblocked + killed Not_Mafia, Not_Mafia would've died, meaning they couldn't have roleblocked him.

If scum jailkept Not_Mafia, they would know not to kill him--so why didn't the scum kill someone else that night? They would know they couldn't kill Not_Mafia, sure, but why not kill Gamma the N1 clear? Why not kill DGB N2? The scum could've killed literally anyone N2. But there was a No Kill that night. If scum jailkept Not_Mafia they would know they needed to nightkill elsewhere, yet no nightkill exists.

You can explain me not being conftown by scum blocking or jailkeeping Not_Mafia.

You cannot explain why scum having blocked or jailkept Not_Mafia then decided to waste their nightkill by not killing anyone that night.

You can however explain the scum not nightkilling by the rule of Keep It Simple Stupid. Literally the simplest explanation for N2? Scum tried to directly nightkill Not_Mafia, but failed.

The simplest solution, dictated by Occam's Razor, is that Not_Mafia as a weak hider conftown'd me N2 and that scum tried to kill Not_Mafia.

The solution required for me to be scum requires the hypothetical and unproven existence of a scum blocking role (on top of the scum having a killing role, mind you! So a three-PR scumteam against a town with literally two PRs! Literally given scum more PRs than the town has!), who used it on Not_Mafia, and then for the scum for...some unspecified, mysterious reason that requires even more stretches in logic, requires you to invent some fabricated explanation, have no successful nightkill that night. Every proposed hypothetical here makes the theory more complex requiring more unproven aspects to it.

And frankly: if you were town you would know this.

VOTE: Titus

[mastina]

rolestopper also works to make the scum partner untargetable

Which still runs into the same problem; if I were rolestopped N2, then Not_Mafia's hider action would've failed...so where's the scum nightkill?

Rolestopper, roleblocker, jailkeeper, they all run into the exact same problem. You can't invent enough fabrications to justify that hypothetical scum role causing Not_Mafia's hide to fail AND explain the lack of kill from the scum that night.

[mastina]

Right, so if scum suspected NM was an investigator but not hider, they could have targeted him for a kill. The kill would fail because they targeted him while he hid behind mastina.

Yes. But this only works if Not_Mafia's hide was successful.

If Not_Mafia's hide was successful...I am conftown.

If Not_Mafia's hide was unsuccessful and mafia targeted him for a kill...he would have died N2.

He didn't die N2, ergo either his hide succeeded or he wasn't targeted by the mafia nightkill N2.
But there's no other option for the lack of N2 nightkill, which means the most likely scenario is that mafia tried to kill him N2.

The logic behind this is painfully self-evident.

[mastina]

Mastina, you're attempting to spin any suspicion on you as convoluted. You're smart enough, if you had deduced Not_Mafia was a weak role that him visiting you would result in you being outed as confscum. Doing a block and a no kill would create the opposite impression.

You're adding an extra thing that is not required.

Blocking Not_Mafia generates the clear in of itself. It doesn't require a no kill. Me just surviving is a clear enough. With Not_Mafia alive on D3 and me alive D3, Not_Mafia's weak hider generates the clear on me.

So there is no reason for me to no-kill.

Again.

You can't explain the no-kill with me as anything other than conftown.

[mastina]

Conveniently ignoring blocking mechanics.

Blocks don't work to block the weak half of the role but let the hider half go through.

I'm not the one ignoring how block mechanics work--the ones proposing I am scum are.

EITHER: Not_Mafia was blocked, in which case he was killable, OR:
Not_Mafia was not blocked, in which case his hide went through on me and he was unkillable.

In the former, I may not be conftown, but there is no explanation for the lack of the N2 kill.

In the latter, I am conftown and there is a perfect, occam's razor compliant, explanation for the lack of the N2 kill.

Those are the only two possible worlds.

One in which Not_Mafia didn't clear me but in which you have to invent some Occam's Razor violation for some contrived convoluted explanation for why there wasn't a N2 kill...

...And one in which Not_Mafia did clear me and the lack of kill was scum trying to directly kill Not_Mafia.

[mastina]

A voluntary no kill explains it, just like moongrass speculated.

A voluntary no-kill runs afoul of occam's razor though because it requires inventing a reason to no-kill.

Again, to reiterate:
In the hypothetical world where scumastina has a scumteam with a blocking role that blocks Not_Mafia's hide, Not_Mafia surviving to D3 is, in of itself, enough to falsely conftown scumastina.

You do not need a no-kill for that.

The blocking role, in of itself, generates that. Just by itself. Just alone. Just on its own, a blocking role on Not_Mafia would conftown scumastina N2.

So why no-kill?

What does the no-kill give?

It literally gives nothing more than what we already had.

It gives zero benefit but costs scum a nightkill, a nightkill they could use on conftown or widely townread players.

Requiring a scum no-kill N2 requires inventing extra motives. It requires inventing "scumastina planned in advance to make herself even more conftown by sacrificing her nightkill to make her even more conftown even though Not_Mafia living to D3 would in of itself conftown her, and she did this because she thought that her being conftown from hiding wasn't enough and came up with the no-kill plan specifically to elevate her to an even higher tier of conftown".

Aside from that being an occam's razor violation in of itself, that doesn't fit the modus operandi of scumastina in general. (For that matter, neither does the nom kill N1.) You're familiar enough with my scum methods to know that I maximize reward for the minimal risk and sacrificing the nightkill and roleblocking Not_Mafia is a double violation of that because roleblocking Not_Mafia is banking on him being a role he's not guaranteed to be and sacrificing the nightkill is sacrificing a resource, meaning that the proposed "block Not_Mafia, no-kill" required for me to be scum requires me to make a high-risk, high-reward play rather than just...a near-zero risk, basically just as high reward play of killing AND blocking.

After all, what if Not_Mafia were an ascetic weak hider? A block couldn't have stopped his hide on me then which means if I were scum and that were his role he'd still die, so if I was going down the next day it'd be better to have gotten an extra kill in the night before. That's the smartest play with the least risk and the most reward with a contingency plan built in.

Whereas blocking Not_Mafia and no-killing is a plan with high risk, not really a higher reward, and is putting all of my eggs in one basket with no fallback plan, nothing to help us if the plan goes wrong, if I miscalculated, if I made the wrong call.

And to reiterate: this is pretty damn self-evident. It doesn't take a genius to figure this out.

The simplest explanation for N2 is Not_Mafia, a weak hider, hid behind me, didn't die, cleared me as conftown, and scum tried to nightkill Not_Mafia but failed thanks to the hide.

Any other explanation is a violation of occam's razor requiring you add in extra steps that require extra justifications including ones which fly in the face of facts and established player metas and modus operandi.

[mastina]

I will reconsider when mastina does something townie.

I already have--I was on the D1 scum wagon and a huge proponent of it when I don't bus, aside from this being my town meta even aside from that, and the scum's nightkills don't match my scum modus operandi. (To reiterate: there is no realm in which I kill nomnom N1. I would shoot DGB, jjh, or similar.)

I'm not just mechanically conftown; I am town by play. But even were I NOT town by play. The mechanical conftown IS airtight because it being anything but runs BADLY afoul of occam's razor requiring you to invent extra steps to justify it.

The fact that you keep on trying to invent reasons for me to not be conftown when I am mechanically conftown is proof that you're scum because moonlogic be damned, you know to follow KISS and KISS dictates that I am town because there's no simpler theory than "scum tried to kill Not_Mafia N2 but failed because Not_Mafia hid behind mastina, conftowning her".

Literally any other theory isn't as simple because it requires the existence of hypothetical, unproven, roles that have zero evidence of existing, with a hypothetical, unproven, justification for a lack of N2 kill, which requires hypothetical, unproven, reasons that fly in the face of established meta.

[mastina]

That "simple" explanation, doesn't explain the reality in the thread. It doesn't explain why a savvy scumfuck would create more layers to townfirm themselves.

This is you continuing to violate occam's razor. The theory of "a savvy scumfuck would create more layers to townfirm themselves" is itself an extra step required--an extra justification required. An extra thing required for me to not be conftown. An extra layer you need to add to the fabrication. It's more steps to add. Not less.

Again, which is simpler?
Scum failed to kill Not_Mafia N2 while Not_Mafia hid behind me, conftowning me...
...Or scum chose to no-kill N2 while an unproven hypothetical blocking role blocked Not_Mafia because a savvy scumfuck wanted to create more layers to townfirm themselves, didn't mention these reasons until the possibility she wasn't conftown was brought up, and that she did this in spite of her not knowing Not_Mafia's role and her having herself proposed the idea of submitting an Ascetic Weak Hider which would ruin her plan if that was his role instead of just a more tame Weak Hider, putting all of her eggs into the basket gambling on it being the role in question and not something else, with her making a high risk gambit in spite of her traditionally as scum making low-risk plays?

Occam's Razor can easily just say scum were putting all their chips on confirming you as town. That's just as simple.

Scum putting all of their chips on confirming me as town isn't simple.

It's literally, "scum chose to no-kill N2 while an unproven hypothetical blocking role blocked Not_Mafia because a savvy scumfuck wanted to create more layers to townfirm themselves, didn't mention these reasons until the possibility she wasn't conftown was brought up, and that she did this in spite of her not knowing Not_Mafia's role and her having herself proposed the idea of submitting an Ascetic Weak Hider which would ruin her plan if that was his role instead of just a more tame Weak Hider, putting all of her eggs into the basket gambling on it being the role in question and not something else, with her making a high risk gambit in spite of her traditionally as scum making low-risk plays".

That's what is required for scum to be me and put chips on me being conftown. (Which, by the way, is something I never bank on because as scum I always bank on being the D1 elimination pretty much.)

[mastina]

Scum putting all of their chips on confirming me as town isn't simple.

To reiterate.

Scum putting all of their chips on falsely conftowning a scumastina requires:
The, completely unproven, existence of a scum blocking role--given we've confirmed scum have a killing role (via the two kills N3), and NK15 was an Informed Enabler, this would mean the scumteam in this game literally has more power roles than the town does. It requires Jingle literally giving scum the perfect tools to shut down the town roles completely in their entirety. Shut down the commuter IC, get a free kill there, and permanently block the hider until you have the opportunity to kill them and their target for a two-for-one special. It requires the town power roles to literally be useless to them and the scum to have a perfect counter to every aspect of them. It requires the town's PRs to have zero agency and the scum to have unlimited Agency.

The scumteam to correctly deduce that Not_Mafia is, exactly, a Weak Hider, and not for them to think he's an Ascetic Weak Hider (when that is the role I actually proposed! I literally proposed Ascetic Weak Hider, and an Ascetic Weak Hider would be immune to blocking roles while dieing if hiding behind scum and being immune to death otherwise, clearing town).

The scumteam, upon making that deduction, to deliberately sacrifice their nightkill.

The scumteam to include me.

The scumteam, in spite of including me, operating contrary to my years upon years of established patterns and plays as scum where they make none of the moves I make when I am scum and make entirely different plays.

Scum nightkilling Not_Mafia N2 and failing because Not_Mafia was hiding behind me, conftowning me, requires: literally just the facts we already have available. Not_Mafia being a weak hider, proven via the N3 flips, and the lack of a kill N2, given via the mod's end of N2.

One takes more steps than the other. One requires inventing more explanations than the other. One requires relying on unproven hypotheticals whereas the other relies on the available mechanical facts. One requires weaving a narrative; the other is self-evident.

[mastina]

mastina's sole focus today is proving herself as "mech clear" and tunnelling me and house.

This is a nice narrative and all but it ignores,
1: what I was doing prior to literally 24 hours ago, and,
2: why I am placing that focus on the mech clear in the first place--specifically, pointing out how if you were town you would know that the mech clear IS a mech clear, instead of spending time to deliberately try and invent every possible reason for it to not be one.

mastina's not talking about her reads.

I've done plenty of this. In fact you even acknowledge that!

mastina doesn't even consider Moongrass scum.

I couldn't have not considered Moongrass as scum without talking about my reads, now, could I? The simple fact is that I

have

talked about my reads:

Spoiler: Me talking about my reads

Moongrass technically could be an early bussed-while-it-was-still-distancing-then-decided-to-rejoin-the-wagon-later, altho I would genuinely say that Moongrass looks town.

So we're guaranteed to have one busser--if Titus isn't scum, guaranteed to have two.

VOTE-wise, I would rank most likely scum busser to least likely scum busser as House > cyrus > Mia and Maya Fey > Moongrass > jjh

PLAY-wise, I would rank most likely scum to least likely scum as...honestly, not sure; House looks town, cyrus's earlygame sucked but later play looked town, Mia and Maya Fey had a dismal earlygame and their latest contributions are in line with that but their midgame looked pretty town; Moongrass has looked town to me the entire game; jjh has looked town to me the entire time; even Titus has had moments of townness.

Loosely speaking my most town to least town would be something like:
jjh

Moongrass

Mia and Maya Fey ~= cyrus ~= House

Titus

And I'd like to reiterate that I've not got good reads right now. Everyone not conftown has reason to be town, when two people are going to be scum.

Oh hey there's a wagon on Moongrass and Titus is no longer at L-2 which with N_M in the game would be L-1?
VOTE: Titus
That means I can safely do this then!

Titus is scum with her scumbuddy House defending her ~= Titus is scum with a wrong-town-House defending her > Titus is town with a scum-House whiteknighting her for the towncred > both Titus and House are town.

That's what I currently feel like. I feel like the world where Titus and House are both town is the least likely world we live in, and that both of the two most likely worlds have Titus as scum. So I'm not moving my vote from there. Titus scum House scum, Titus scum House town, I'm not sure which but I think one of those two is the most likely right now (followed by Titus town House scum), meaning that I don't want Titus to escape the elimination today.

If it's Titus-House, gg easy I guess.
If it's Titus + someone else, it doesn't look like Moongrass is fairly likely. The most likely are cyrus or Mia+Maya Fey.
If it's House + someone else, it also doesn't look like Moongrass is fairly likely. The most likely would probably be cyrus but this is just guesswork.

Regardless, I feel like a Titus elimination is the best, followed by a House elimination, to give us an idea of what world we live in. Titus-scum, House-scum, or the worst case scenario of neither being scum. (In that world, I'd need to look at which 2-person combo was most likely in Moongrass, cyrus, and Mia+Maya Fey because they would legit be the only options. But I'd prefer to cross that bridge if and only if we came to it.)

I think Cyrus could be partners with anyone, actually

It feels like you had Titus and to a lesser extent House dead to rights--I honestly thought your cyrus vote was baiting Titus, and that Titus took the bait, and that you were going to reveal that it was bait for Titus, because I was that sure you were on the right track with Titus's desperation as it were and that the sudden emergence and willingness on her end to spontaneously wagon cyrus was more proof of her being scum.

For the record, here's my breakdown of every possible scumteam:

Titus-Moon: unlikely, given the way they have interacted.
Titus-Mia+Maya: definitely possible, as one of the two possibilities I see other than...
Titus-House: has actually astonishingly good logic for why this would be the team backed by both individuals' actions.

Mia+Maya-Moon: Okay this one's possible I guess but not exactly the most probable imo.
Mia+Maya-House: I doubt it. I don't have any concrete reason to doubt it other than gut but I have the doubt there regardless.

House-Moon: Incredibly unlikely given their interactions imo.

I can go into more details for these teams if you want me to break it down in more detail tho, but I think these teams are pretty self-evident.

Titus, you're missing that I think scum would have made the assumption that NM was a weak hider or similar based on how telegraphed his targets were, and so if they wanted to remove him they would need to go for his target

I'm targetting nomnomnomnom tonight

Makes you think, doesn't it?

Granted N_M made more 'targeting' posts after that, butstill, it's at least possible scum thought he was a hider on nom.

For the record--I would explicitly expect that to make Titus be scum here as the players most likely to try and kill the hider hide target are imo most to least, Titus > House > Mia+Maya > Moongrass I guess

Everyone looks town to me, jjh. Titus included. I have to approach things from a more logical objective standpoint: two players who look like they are town, aren't actually town.

When it comes to two players that are looking town but aren't actually town, that means I have to look at what they are doing. The interactions between the slots, along with what their interactions are accomplishing. The normal "this looks like them as town" isn't good enough, because everyone looks like town to me with reasonably compelling reasons for that to be the case.

I can write a towncase on Titus and yes, Titus's more recent posting would be among it, sure.

But I can write a towncase on House.

I can write a towncase on cyrus.

I can write a towncase on Moongrass.

The hardest towncase to write would be Mia and Maya Fey surprisingly enough, but while I might have the most issue in writing a towncase for them, I also have the hardest time slotting them into most scumteams so in that sense there's a decent towncase for them, too.

Two players who I can write a towncase on because they look like town, aren't actually town and are scum.

And when it comes to looking at the deeper level at interactions and motives.

Titus however, when you get past her play looking like town-Titus (which it does), and you look more into what she's doing and the motives for it, does fit as scum quite well. That's not a guarantee that she's scum, but she definitely fits as scum, especially since there's one thing from Titus that I'd expect to see from her if she were town that I'm not seeing. She seems unusually survivalistic and unusually not-fatalistic. Her content looks like her towngame, yes, but deeper down she doesn't feel town to me on a fundamental level.

House's early play looked quite town, but similarly, his later play looks less motivated by "solving the game" and more motivated by "okay I need to troubleshoot how to get to a workable endgame here". He still looks town by play, but the things he is doing look like they are motivated by being scum. It is possible that he is passionate town that is strongly opinionated, but to me he actually looks like he is trying to steer the gamestate in a direction where he has a chance to endgame, and is highly performative.

Moongrass just feels town on every level to me, almost as much as you do, jjh.

Mia and Maya Fey are surprisingly silent all things considered, which is a bit of a concern. But while it is a bit of a concern given the players involved should be more active and involved, it's less damning imo than it could be because while they're not being active, that also means they're not trying to steer the gamestate in a direction that gives scum a possible win.

I realize these are scattered, not satisfactory, notes on where I am right now but I really think that a Titus elimination into a House elimination gives us the best chance at winning here, because while everyone looks town by play, two players must be scum and when I look at the deeper levels, the players who have the highest chances of being scum who look town are Titus and House with the most realistic of scumteam combos between them.

[ I suppose I can say it this way: I find it town-indicative for Titus, but I find the posting of everyone to be town-indicative, so I have to look beyond what looks town indicative to delve into the possible scumteam combos and what the players are doing given the possible scumteam combos and what they hope to accomplish with their approach.

It's actually a bit of a return to my mastin2 days rather than my mastina days, but in this specific case, I actually felt it was necessary to, so to speak, regress towards that standard, again, because everyone looks town and yet two players by necessity aren't. Two players who to me, look to be town, cannot actually be town.

Trying to weigh surface-level feels for which players feel the most town, and then voting off the ones who feel the least town, just...doesn't feel like it's the way we win here. I genuinely feel the way to win is to look at all the players who look town, and then analyze their possible scumteams, eliminate the impossible pairs, and then judge off of the remaining possible pairs which are the ones which look the most likely to be true, off of what the players are doing rather than how they look when doing it.

My possible scumteam pairings are (not necessarily ordered most to least mind you):
Titus-House
Titus-Mia+Maya
House-Mia+Maya

Moongrass-Mia+Maya (nothing eliminating them as a pair but I think Moongrass is town)

These are the only teams that I see as possible.

And if you look at the play of each individual in question keeping in mind that these are the only possible pairs.
I see Titus and House both maneuvering in ways that feel like they are trying to shift the gamestate in a way that is more favorable to their chances of setting up a viable scum endgame. it doesn't mean Titus and House are for sure scum.

But I see Titus positioning in ways that feel like they are setting up for a chance to endgame, and I see House positioning in ways that feel like they are setting up for a chance to endgame. it feels like the best options are House and Titus here.

And House placing cyrus at L-1 was utterly unacceptable.

I very much want to vote one of Titus or House right now but I owe y'all the promised due diligence where I actually theorycraft and go over the possible combos.

Oh and Titus and House openly PR hunting in thread and exposing N_M as a hider for some reason? Where the fuck is the town motivation in that?

A good question!

One which I am tempted, very oh so much tempted, to back with a vote.

I’ve wanted Titus dead since day 2.
When will it happen?

Honestly.

If nsg gave her blessing, I'd just #yolovote Titus right now.

Because yes.

I do as a matter of fact think it's Titus+House right now.

I owe the game due diligence but if both the treestumps were on the same page as me, I'd just be down to instavote, caution be damned.

Mia and Maya Fey are obviously town.

I'm not AS sure of this but I am seeing more and more town in them, so I see where this is coming from and overall find myself agreeing.

I also am seeing Moongrass as town here.

There's also another contributing factor.

If either Mia and Maya Fey or Moongrass were scum, all they would need to do to win the game is to sheep me. Insist it is Titus+House, case them, commit to that being the pair, and be on my side, be my ally, try to sway me to their side. If either of them were scum they could just have done that and had a huge chance of winning, by winning over the other (Moongrass calling Mia and Maya Fey would be disproportionately effective because Nancy in particular is a sucker for townreading players who townread her; to a lesser extent, Mia and Maya Fey townreading Moongrass would likely win Moongrass over), and by having me on their side. Me + the other = guarantee of 3 votes at their disposal, and if Gamma backed me or them, that's 4. Enough to get an elimination through.

...Instead?

...Instead, Mia and Maya Fey and Moongrass are showing quite a lot of paranoia towards each other. This pretty much rules out them being scum-scum for sure, but also vastly increases the odds BOTH are town here.

I've not talked about my reads as much as I would like to, I admit. I've not done as much work as I would prefer to have done.

But I've got a lot on my plate right now so I am understandably? A bit...limited...in my contribution ability. I am doing the best I can given the circumstances.

[mastina]

@mastina can you please vote house

I'll risk it, sure.

VOTE: House

If the team involves Titus but not House this L-1 vote could cost us the game, but given how likely it is that it's House + Titus, I'm willing to take the L-1 risk.

[mastina]

Well I'm not scum; was Titus scum with someone else?

[mastina]

Well we were pretty fucked there regardless considering Gamma wasn't voting House and neither House nor Titus were scum and the main proposed alternative to them as scum was Moongrass. (Granted, if it

were

a battle of Moongrass vs. Mia+Maya Fey, I'd eliminate Mia+Maya Fey 100% of the time as my townread on Moongrass was much much stronger.)

I don't think I can claim full responsibility for the loss as it was pretty much a collective town effort imo in everyone having fucked up in some way shape or form, but I will take a rather large amount of the blame as having neither of my primary votes in mylo be scum is a big issue, and while my third choice behind them was scum, it was still a third choice that I didn't properly consider and put the time into properly going over.

Obviously, there was some concern about my RL situation contributing to my choice there but that's a pretty shitty excuse so I'll take the (appropriate amount--not ALL of it but a big fair share of it) blame for the L.

[mastina]

(I think an appropriate amount of blame on the loss for me is 40-60%ish. A big share of it, I did mess up pretty badly, but not exclusively on me.)

[mastina]

I will say tho:
I believe the setup was incredibly scumsided.

There is a DAMN good reason that scum killing roles (Vig, Vengeful, etc.) are, explicitly, banned from Normal Games and this game is proof of concept for exactly why that is the case. If you give scum an extra kill, you're literally asking for the scum to get a free win. Scum killing roles have a disproportionately high winrate; Jingle himself would know this considering that he ran a game with one and it was the freest scum win of my entire life.

Commuter IC might be unkillable conftown, but it is literally just one town player, who thanks to the scum being informed of the commuter and having a commuter enabler, they can shut down the conftown role and get a free uncontested kill there because the town had no roles beyond the treestump's submitted roles. So the scum's second role was incredibly strong, when their first role would've been enough to make the game arguably scumsided in of itself. I literally would call goonx2 + N3 strongman vig vs. town's roles this game, scumsided. No joke, that's how strong a scum vig is. The fact that the scum vig was there ON TOP of the commuter enabler is bad enough...

...But then you get the rolestopper which shuts down the town's only other role, and you see the direct consequence of it in this game, with scum falsely conftowned.

The scum could choose which member to eliminate D1 to remove the commute from the game, which makes it all the more strong. The scum could choose which member to make the rolestopper, so that they could protect the second-weakest scummate and be unlikely to be caught. The scum literally had more power in the game than the town did and the retirement power of a 1x doctor is, honestly, a bit of a joke especially given the scum's power roles were also a counter to that. (What if the doctor protected the strongman vig's target? A one-shot doctor, protecting the strongman vig's target. Think about that interaction and think, is that in any way shape or form fair for the town? Or fun for the town?)

All in all this setup? I'd give it like a 90-95% scum winrate. If you ran this setup 100 times, town could only win a small fraction of the games because the scum have more power roles than the town and their power roles provide a perfect counter towards the town's power roles and their killing role means the town has less eliminations than they should have.

But that having been said.

While this is an absurdly, ridiculously, beyond-all-reason scumsided setup...

...I would still say town can't blame the setup for the loss; we fucked up, and me personally I still take that 40-60% of the blame.

[mastina]

Oh apparently the vig wasn't strongman.

That drops it from 90-95% scumsided down to...

...Oh.

...89-92.5% scumsided or so.

This is effectively a mini.

In a Mini Normal, the expected number of town eliminations before lylo is 3. (This, regardless of a scum elimination. 13 - 2 = 11 D2. 11 = 2 = 9 D3. 9 - 2 = 7 D4. If no scum has been eliminated, this is lylo. If one scum has been eliminated, 7 - 2 = 5, still lylo even with a scum eliminated.)

A scum Vig automatically drops that down to two.

The town can only mislim twice before they are endgamed.

This is made even worse if the hider is killed.

13 - 2/3 = 10/11. 10/11 -2/3 = 8/9 8/9 - 3/4 = 5. You could end up with three scum alive to two town alive on N3.

I don't care how strong the town's roles are; having the town need to play literally perfect or else be fucked by the scum roles is never going to not be strong for the scum.

And that's just from the one scum vig.

Then you throw in the rolestopper--why wouldn't the scum rolestopper just park their rolestop on their non-commuter-enabler scumbuddy? Of course they would. So with them permanently protecting the scum vig, the scum vig would have total impunity. This, furthered by being able to select which scum got which role. You could give your highest deadweight member the commuter enabler and then let them live for however long. You protect your second-weakest member by parking the rolestopper on them, basically guaranteeing their safety with no guilty to be formed, ever.

All the while, the town's role which is explicitly a role that cannot get hard-innocents-beyond-any-question-of-innocence, whose one purpose in the game is to get a hard guilty, can't actually realistically get that hard guilty beyond sheer freak occurrence. The weak hider gets a guilty on the commuter-enabler? Scum benefit from this because they kill the weak hider and disable the commute from the IC and get a free kill in there. The weak hider targets the vig? False innocent there that gives scum a disproportionate advantage. The weak hider's only guilty that is a guilty is on the rolestopper...who, again, the scum can tailor to be the player least likely to be investigated.

The weak hider can still get utility from generating innocents which the town doesn't know are definite innocents if the town treats those innocents as innocents...but that works to the scum's advantage with a false innocent.

All in all the scum had a perfect counter to every town role, and then some.

The 1x doctor wasn't even an incentive for the treestumps to retire. You have one player, with one shot, at maybe preventing a kill, but in a game where scum have two kills on N3, can kill the hider, and saving the hider could actually generate a false innocent (due to the way a Normal hider works, a doctor protecting them would save them from hiding behind scum), meaning that the doctor could actually work

against

the town.

The town's roles have basically no synergy and the scum's roles synergize literally perfectly.

From a setup point of view, I do mean it; town could, statistically speaking, short of freak occurrences like a D1 elimination on the scum rolestopper, never win this game. It would legit take that level of freak occurrence for a town win. Literally eliminating the scum's rolestopper, when the scum have every tool to prevent exactly that, both from selecting which scum have which role and push come to shove, scum able to form a counterwagon. (Heck you could even theoretically just have your scum commuter-enabler blatantly claim scum if the scum rolestopper is being wagoned to guarantee the scum rolestopper doesn't die D1.) Something that could occur in a small fraction of games, the 7-11% range of them, but which statistically speaking they are almost never going to do.

Without the town taking out one of the scum's stronger roles in the first two days, they are never going to win this game. In any scenario where both the scum rolestopper and the scum vig live to see N3, I would rate scum's chances of winning the game at 99.99%. Basically impossible for the town.

But that said, again, still was a town loss, which I take a large amount of responsibility for. Even if I made the reasonable assessment that scum couldn't have a third power role that blocked the hider without the game being ludicrously scumsided when the scum did have a third power role that blocked the hider because it was ludicrously scumsided, meaning that Gamma was off the cards, still on me for not eliminating Mia + Maya Fey. Still something I take fault for and the town as a whole also failed to get rid of. (After all, it was 3/4 town votes in mylo on the mislim. Gamma didn't NEED to scumclaim.)

[mastina]

I was so disappointed at the cyrus lim lol, anyone that has ever played with cyrus should have seen town!cyrus here! Gah!

Hey, I hard-defended cyrus! I brought up very very strong very very valid points for cyrus being town!

It's not MY fault that SOMEONE decided to, knowing Not_Mafia was in the game, place cyrus to L-1. (Again, I can take 40-60% of the blame for the loss, but how D3 ended is definitely within the other 40-60% that was absolutely NOT my fault.)

[mastina]

weak hider and commuter IC is also ridiculously OP in a closed setup. if the rand was different we were a lot more fucked here.

+1

With respect to DKKoba and you, Nancy:
You are not reviewers especially for Normal Games.

nsg and I both are and very very experienced in that regards.

When we say that this game was tremendously scumsided, barring freak occurrences--we mean it.

There was exactly one scenario where the town gets any positive outcome from their roles, the weak hider targeting the scum rolestopper.

Do you know what the mathematical odds of that are?

N1, it is 1/11. (13 alive D1, minus the D1 elimination, 12 into night, hider can't self-target so 11 targets.) 9.090909090909091% chance.
ASSUME the weak hider lives (not a guarantee).
N2, it is 1/8. (11 alive D2, 10 after the elimination, hider makes it 9, but they have an innocent, and presumably won't hide behind their innocent.) 12.5% chance + 9.090909090909091% chance = 21.59090909090909% chance.
ASSUME the weak hider lives again (not a guarantee).
N3, it is 1/5. (9 alive D3, 8 after the elimination, hider brings it down to 7 but they have two innos and presumably won't hide behind them.) 20% chance + 21.59090909090909% chance = 41.59090909090909% chance.

Oh and by the way, on N3 if there's no scum dead, that hider hiding behind the scum rolestopper? Can trigger an automatic scum win. So even IF they hide behind the right scum, they can end up actually literally costing the town the game. If the town was expecting only 1-2 town to die in the night, they could actually literally lose the game from it being 3. So even that 41.59090909090909% chance? Not necessarily a good thing for the town!

That's just from the sheer statistical probability. Just from the raw numbers, the outcome you describe is, statistically speaking, unlikely to happen.

Then you throw in that scum get to choose who the scum rolestopper is...after they have seen a portion of D1 play out. This means that the scumteam can see which of their members are most suspicious and which are least suspicious and from reading the game thread, select the player least likely to be investigated to hold that role. Unless they completely read the gamestate wrong and were totally off the mark, that makes the odds much much lower than the numbers would suggest. It literally could only occur in freak occurrences, by my estimation, the 7-11%. Something that is statistically theoretically possible from sheer raw bad luck on the scumteam's part and good luck on the town's part, but which 9 times out of 10, won't happen.

The IC commuter isn't nearly as broken as you say, because the scumteam can reasonably deduce that the commuter is the IC. That means instead of wasting their nightkill there, they wait until the commuter-enabler is dead to kill the IC. That, aside from the fact that the IC is only one conftown with no way of generating more.

Then you throw in that the scum's trump card, the rolestopper, even in those freak 7-11% occurrences? Still doesn't spell game over for the scumteam. Inherent in the weak hider getting a guilty is the weak hider being dead after having gotten it, unable to generate more results. And while one guilty would be a guilty on scum, every innocent the weak hider got before the guilty? Thrown out the window once the scum rolestopper flips. So you end up with exactly one conftown, the IC, not 2-3 conftown. Because the weak hider couldn't generate actually solid 100% beyond all reasonable doubt, innocents. It had two possible guilties, and arguably both still give benefit to the scumteam by eliminating the investigative and hindering the town's roles. (Commuter-enabler guiltied? After elimination, disables the IC's commute. Rolestopper guiltied? After elimination, casts doubt on all prior innocent results.)

There's no realm where this isn't a scumsided setup. It literally takes freak occurrences, statistical abnormalities, for the town to have a CHANCE. The scum vig dead before N3, in spite of how they cannot be guiltied and the scum choose who carries that role; the scum rolestopper dead on D1 in spite of how the scum choose who carries that role; the hider guiltying the scum rolestopper N1 exactly; the scum not realizing the IC is a commute and not suspecting a protective and risking a kill there with the scum commuter enabler alive; etc.

If those happen? Town has a

chance

.

In all other scenarios, the town is basically in a, statistically speaking, almost mathematically impossible to win barring freak miracle scenario.