Townstumps Mafia (Endgame)
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i'm of the opinion that townstumps are better used as people we want bulletproof rather than some kind of pre-emptive investigation, or choice for people we think will be hard to sort. i feel as though using it that way is more akin to choosing someone to just remove from the game rather than choosing a voice we want around for the entire game- northsidegal
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i disagree strongly with the notion that NM or players like him cannot be sortedIn post 73, KorVex wrote:I'd have to disagree here. I think making someone like NM, who nobody is gonna really have a good time sorting is perfectly valid.
Plus I know NM is a good player, so making them a stump would force them to have to actually play more or less, since we'd be expecting on them to lead town a bit.
i also think that risk of death is a more effective encouragement to post in general. all of my experience with treestumps and stump-like roles suggests as such- northsidegal
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you're more likely to roll town than scum, so it seems to make more sense to elect a stump that would help you more as town than to not try that because you might roll scumIn post 92, Free Money Free Tea wrote:No one's actually trying because they might roll scum.- northsidegal
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i'm not really convinced that just having two people to discuss a vig shot really "removes" the aspect of shots being on town. i also think that, in general, directing vig shots or making public votes on them is less effective than simply leaving it up to the vigilante—mith was the one who first introduced me to this logic.In post 105, KorVex wrote:I still think vigilante mason is really powerful, because it removes the aspect of a vigilante shot being on town, because now you have *two* people thinking about it, on top of the treestumps knowing about the vigilante shot, and able to direct it accordingly
this is just a personal curiosity—where do you see conflicting information on the wiki? my understanding—and what i would tell to anyone making a normal setup—would be that a strongman would be able to kill a hider, the kill wouldn't fail.In post 123, KorVex wrote:ok, wiki actually gives conflicting information.
@mod will a strongman targeting a hider who is hiding kill them, or does the kill fail?- northsidegal
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i don't think trying to go "low-powered" is a very good idea. mountainous itself is really bad for town in-practice (regardless of the calculated EV), but more relevant is the fact that town gets alotmore out of power roles than scum do – it's sort of a natural element of skew in favor of town that exists in normal games. even the best scum roles really can either only block town roles or gain information about them and these aren't really that high-value for scum, but the best town roles can reveal people's alignments and even kill scum, which are super high value.
we definitely should be adding a high-power role to the setup even if scum get balanced to be more powerful because of it – town benefits a lot more from power roles than scum do anyways.- northsidegal
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i think that might be a remnant of how hiders work in some open setups. in normal games, strongmen are only stopped by commuters, as said under the "normal guidelines" section. it is a bit confusing to have it say something different in the lede than in the normal guidelines section, so i might change it a bit.In post 145, KorVex wrote:@nsgIt is, however, trumped by roles that prevent the victim from being targeted at all, namely Commuter and Hider.
it links specifically to commuter as well in the second quote on the wiki, and doesn't say "unless their target has commuted or hides" or something to that effectA Strongman cannot be stopped from performing a kill, unless their target has commuted- northsidegal
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@jingle, will the setup itself be normal, or is it just the role submitted by the stumps which has to be normal?- northsidegal
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woah, we have so many people in this game whose usernames start with "N"
pretty unusual, right?- northsidegal
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i think moon's a great playerIn post 234, Gamma Emerald wrote:Why Moongrass, nsg?- northsidegal
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shrugIn post 250, Gamma Emerald wrote:
If I can get details about this I’m probably willing to go with itIn post 243, northsidegal wrote:
i think moon's a great playerIn post 234, Gamma Emerald wrote:Why Moongrass, nsg?
just had a game with moon where we were both on scum d1 and she correctly called out the partner before getting shot n1 (because of a power role, but still)
not sure how much moon even wants to be a stump this game but yeah- northsidegal
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so NM be honest
if / when you're a stump, your very first post is going to be exiting the game, right
how could you call yourself a true troll if it wasn't- northsidegal
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personally i would appreciate the humor- northsidegal
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it's not about being selfish or "getting power for myself" or anythingIn post 302, Mia and Maya Fey wrote:i mean like uhhhhh cmon NSG don't be selfish.
despite what you might think i actually do have respect for NM's play - in one of my earliest games he cop investigated two members of the scumteam, so i've always both had respect for his pr play and believed that his reads themselves are probably better than random.
given that moon doesn't want to be stumped, that reduces my options. i trust that dgb is good but don't really have a great personal idea of her play, so if her wagon gets close i'm fine with it. jjh i would like, but i also think that i can read him well, so that seems non-optimal. mastina i'd also vote for, but there seems to be no will there. so, given all that, i'm voting nm. it's not just so he leaves.- northsidegal
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In post 351, NorwegianboyEE wrote:I’m feeling spoilt from the mafia universe site. You can literally request an VC at anytime and it just posts automatically.
Is Koba hydra hammered? I’m too lazy to check.
it's 4/4 nm and hydra, if my count is rightIn post 352, House wrote:I believe it is.- northsidegal
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subtleIn post 446, Moongrass wrote:
That's what I got from the role PM too haha.In post 432, jjh927 wrote:We're voting to euphemise people? Like, to make a euphemism of them?- northsidegal
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yepIn post 528, Moongrass wrote:NSG you here?
thoughts: i think that the current spat between you jjh and the hydra is unproductive. i trust jjh on mastina more than i do anyone else in the game. think house leans scum.- northsidegal
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my understanding is that koba is something of an inflammatory player (no offense). i suggest you ignore any snipes directed at you.- northsidegal
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i'm pretty much deferring from reading the hydra until nancy posts more, which i think is probably a higher reliability strategy.In post 549, Moongrass wrote:
How is this not screaming scum to you NSG? Lol. It's actually kind of sad.In post 545, Mia and Maya Fey wrote:I'll just drop that scum think I'm an easy push in games because I am very aggressive and have an unorthodox playstyle. I would surely hope that isn't any of you trying to shade me right now.- northsidegal
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and upset townies can cause losses that otherwise should have been wins. also, in general, upsetting players probably leads to a less fun game for everyone involved.In post 564, Mia and Maya Fey wrote:
Upset scum make more mistakesIn post 546, northsidegal wrote:my understanding is that koba is something of an inflammatory player (no offense). i suggest you ignore any snipes directed at you.- northsidegal
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do you think that mastina has "pigeon-holed" you as being scummy or towny? she was pretty clear in the motivation behind her vote on you.In post 563, House wrote:Nah, I'm not buying that for one simple reason.
Our first game together, you called me town out of nowhere when I was being wagoned and sold it. You're townread of me was based on a lack of scum notice in my incredibly scummy playstyle. You had zero history with me.
That's what so impressed me about your skill. It's very rare to find a player that hunts for motive instead of pigeon-holing actions as "scummy" or "towny".
I'm not seeing that here, and it makes me sad.- northsidegal
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if you'll excuse my saying, i think the "try again" is a little overly passive aggressive here given that you know that i'm town, and given that i wasn'tIn post 573, House wrote:I never claimed nor implied mastina pigeon-holed anyone or anything.
Try again.sayinganything about what you said, i was literallyaskingif that was what you were saying. just saying "no, that wasn't what i meant" would be enough.
so, to continue asking: what aspect of mastina's play that you recognized before do you think you aren't seeing here, and where is it manifested?
you should really be careful with that level of hubris.In post 574, Mia and Maya Fey wrote:Good thing I can identify out who the townies are that are upset before endgame then.- northsidegal
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gosh you guys post way too much
reads as of page 40:
{nsg, norwee, dgb}
{jjh}
{mastina, moon, nancy, NM}
{gamma}
{nk15, FMFT, cyrus, titus, house} - null
{nom}
keep in mind this is a relative list not an absolute one- northsidegal
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would it make you feel better if i told you that you're both equally mysterious and enigmatic?- northsidegal
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okay, i'm caught up.
{nsg, norwee, dgb}
{jjh}
{nancy, cyrus}
{moon, NM, mastina}
{gamma, house}
{nk15, FMFT, titus} - null
{nom}
hopefully i don't jinx us, but i feel decently confident that this game should be a town win.- northsidegal
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this is a sort of curious wagon composition we have going on right now.
anyone have any thoughts on it? i have a few of my own, but i'm interested to hear other people's first- northsidegal
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to be clear, thoughts on the composition of the wagons, not on the wagons themselves- northsidegal
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I disagree that valuable wagon analysis is only possible under imminent threat of death. I think there are plenty of games with plenty of counterexamples that contradict that idea.- northsidegal
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i think calling it "vca" is a little misleading / missing the point - i'm moreso looking at the wagons as a whole rather than any individual votes in the context of knowing someone's alignment
although, i guess that still could be said to be vca, and to be fair i haven't even explained really what i'm thinking- northsidegal
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man, it really makes me miss ankamius when people think that looking at the formation of wagons is useless unless you have a flip. does nobody think that gamestate analysis is possible or useful?
anyways, i think that NK15 is a pretty bad vote. he's d1 lynchbait in alotof games which is weak evidence that he's town in this game, but the more salient point for me is that based on the wagons earlier i think it almost just doesn't make sense for him to be scum, unless his partners decided to immediately hardbus him (which i think is unlikely). the jjh wagon didn't form in response to NK's wagon, it was actually there before his wagon formed. so the question is, if NK is scum, what are his partners doing?
you guys might think this analysis is pretty weak, and that's fine. i'm not explaining it the best – i historically haven't often done gamestate reads. it just stood out to me as being particularly relevant given that almost everyone was on either jjh or NK, but i already am almost entirely sure jjh is town, and even without that based on the gamestate it didn't really feel like one of these was a scum wagon that was being fought against by some people.- northsidegal
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why does he vote cyrus instead of the JJH counterwagon?In post 1388, nomnomnom wrote:The fact that NK has completely ignored his wagon in favor of voting up a slot I am convinced is complete mislim bait is also making me comfortable in my vote here.- northsidegal
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1) i think that scum almost never ever do the boldedIn post 1407, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Yeah like, it feels like Moonshot decided to townread Gamma here, but then forgot their initial fabricated read and now decided to scumread Gamma. And double the points by them going full Zuckerberg instead of answering a very simple discrepancy.
I would vote Moonshot here.
2) moon did something almost exactly the same in the last game that i played with her, with seeming read shifts from someone being voted shifting instantly to being at the top of her readslist. i similarly asked and could not get an answer out of her for why it had happened. just wanted to give some perspective.- northsidegal
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saying that his play there is "scum piggybacking off a player's read" is a narrative in which he's scum, but not anIn post 1421, nomnomnom wrote:I'm not in his mind so I can't say for sure but the fact that he has voted there after quoting a jjh post makes me think that scum!him could just be piggybacking off a player's read, and as I said, Cyrus is that kind of player who will attract votes entirely on play and posting style so it's an easy vote to make. Certainly easier than voting jjh here I'd say.
Do you think he's town?
If you do, you have a version of your game that has jjh/moon/nk all as town, so I would be curious as to where you think the scum would be in a world where that is the case
pedit: I've thought numerous times that it could simply be that moon is exhibiting some classic town read shift but what makes me unsure is his insistence on avoiding the question altogether. In my mind if he's town he would have no trouble telling me something he told norwee? Instead he went on a tirade about how unfun I am to play against when I was simply asking questions, so basically the question in my mind really is "would town!moon be this annoyed by me right about now?"explanationforwhyhe chose to do that instead of voting his counterwagon.
jjh is almost assuredly town, i think, and i'm leaning towards moon and NK both being town. scum is primarily in you right now i think, but in general i get the feeling that scum just aren't doing much in this gamestate.- northsidegal
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she claimed mason and tried to 1v1 me.In post 1424, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Did Moongrass also try to hard discredit you and scumread you when you asked why their progression was odd in that previous game NSG?
eventually we settled our differences and we both voted scum that day.- northsidegal
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i'd appreciate if people would unvote, at least for now- northsidegal
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that is why i asked someone to unvote- northsidegal
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I can talk more later. In short, I think I have a lot more authority than you do to talk about moon's behavior here and I you really shouldn't be just dismissing that, especially as "just meta".In post 1636, NorwegianboyEE wrote:NSG wanna talk more about Moon?- northsidegal
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Yikes.In post 1645, Moongrass wrote:VOTE: FMFT
Not mafia
Nom
House
Gamma
Cyrus
Feys
Titus
NK15
FMFT
Jjh
Mastina
think you can try to explain this one? pretty sure you're just wrong hereIn post 1649, Moongrass wrote:Nsg the game makes a lot more sense if jjh is scum. Fitting a team around nom doesn't work.- northsidegal
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shrug
i hate to make comments like that because they're classical hubris and set me up to potentially look stupid if i'm wrong (and just in general it's not how i expect to convince people), but i do think that people are ignoring me in this game just because my reads sort of diverge from consensus and they don't want to deal with that.- northsidegal
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for the record, i'm not absolutely convinced that moon is town. the main point that i've been trying to get across is that the main thing that moon seems to be being scumread for (i.e. the crazy read shifts) is not a convincing reason to believe that she's scum. iIn post 1656, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Well i've never played with you before so if NSG is that convinced i'll consider that. But that doesn't mean i'm treating all their words as gospel.just went through thisliterally the last game that i played just before this one – i thought the exact same thing that you do now, that there were these crazy read shifts from voting someone to instantly top townreading that person, and moon wouldn't explain them when i asked. i was proven wrong, so now i know that that model for reading moon is ineffective.- northsidegal
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pretty much, yeah. as he indicated himself, i have a pretty good (if not perfect) record of correctly reading him as both town or scum here. i understand that his scum meta has improved a lot from the very first game i played with him years ago, but i would still fairly confidently say that his play this game has fallen within his town meta here. even beyond just pure meta, i think that he's made a lot of comments that i would almost never expect from scum.In post 1661, Moongrass wrote:Do you have a lot of experience with jjh nsg?- northsidegal
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for instance, this comment:In post 1663, northsidegal wrote:even beyond just pure meta, i think that he's made a lot of comments that i would almost never expect from scum.
i think that someone who is scum and in the position that jjh is in this game would almost never make this comment. i say this in part based on my own experience – as someone with relatively distinct town and scum metas (as jjh also is), making this comment would just not be something that i'd do. in games where i'm scum, i recognize that my play is going to be distinct from what people expect of my town play, so i would either try to get ahead of it by making some excuse about why my play is different in advance (such as "i'm trying a new playstyle") or i would just never so confidently declare that i'm playing my town game. furthermore, thereIn post 1110, jjh927 wrote:Sadly, you are mistaken. I cannot be elimed in this game, because this is a shining example of my towngame and NSG is one of the treestumpshavebeen games where i've made almost exactly the same comment as town: that i am unambiguously playing my towngame and that other people in the playerlist who know me should recognize this and would never vote for me.- northsidegal
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i think that you said earlier that you didn't care to try to convince me that you were town. i'm curious – why is that?In post 1664, nomnomnom wrote:I'd love to cooperate with you NSG because I know your reads are somewhat sharp, but in this case you believe I am scum, which is obviously wrong, so it's harder for me to do so- northsidegal
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i don't believe this, for the record.In post 1664, nomnomnom wrote:I think I'm warming up on town!moon, possibly, and I think the scums could be elsewhere considering the gamestate, I think a push on FMFT is not a bad idea- northsidegal
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almost nobody on site plays like scum RC, the comment may be similar but using that as a model for evaluation doesn't make sense because jjh isn't an RC-like player.- northsidegal
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this isn't an argument, it's just poisoning the well. if i rolled scum in a game i would play to make sure that RC and moon and mathdino and everyone who's ever known me would townread me, but i can't, so i don't.In post 1674, Moongrass wrote:If I had rolled scum here I'd be playing to make sure nsg and mastina townread me.
i think he slightly leans town. i find the vote shifts that happened onto him in the past two pages incredibly noteworthy.
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almost nothing in mafia is about whether or not something is capable of something, it's about the probabilities. theIn post 1680, NorwegianboyEE wrote:
Then i think your scumgame is just really low. As i’ve identified slots that are strong townplayers and confidently sure they would correctly townread me and done what i can to pocket them by saying: "this is obviously my towngame" when i am scum, and it’s worked like an charm. What makes JJ and i uncapable of something you cannot?In post 1667, northsidegal wrote:or i would just never so confidently declare that i'm playing my town game. furthermore, there have been games where i've made almost exactly the same comment as town: that i am unambiguously playing my towngame and that other people in the playerlist who know me should recognize this and would never vote for me.probabilitythatanytown player with somewhat distinct towngames and scumgames would make a comment like that is—in my estimation—low, for the reasons that i said there. thus, i consider it town-indicative. you aren't the same kind of player as jjh is or as i am, so i wouldn't apply the same analysis to you that i would to him. just the same way i said that moon shouldn't apply the same analysis she would to scum!RC to jjh.- northsidegal
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it's not.In post 1687, NorwegianboyEE wrote:
Very good point actually.In post 1674, Moongrass wrote:If I had rolled scum here I'd be playing to make sure nsg and mastina townread me.- northsidegal
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to be clear, i've never said that it's impossible for jjh to be scum. my argument—as it always is—is that i see the evidence for him being town as being relatively strong, and the evidence for him being scum to be fairly weak or nonexistent.- northsidegal
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norwee, do you think that jjh is scum or no? if the answer is no then i'm sorry but i don't think that it's an effective use of my time to get into a discussion about whether or not people have metas at all and whether or not meta is an effective tool, which i think it unambiguously is.- northsidegal
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also, for the record – my analysis of other people's play has nothing to do with me always projecting how i play or think onto others, or whatever you seem to be implying here. i made a comparison between jjh and myself because there was a salient comparison to make in that case.In post 1691, NorwegianboyEE wrote:I guess it makes sense for you to claim players are different, but in that case.
again, i hate to make arrogant comments like this, but i won paragon for a reason, and that reasonwasn'tbecause i assume everyone thinks like me.- northsidegal
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@house sorry i don't have anything great to point to there for you, it's a weak gut read.
To beIn post 1704, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Also, nothing makes me less wanting of listening to anyone's arguments than: "I won an paragon".
Sheesh.exceedinglyclear, my argument for JJH being town hasnothing at allto do with the fact that I won paragon, or any claim of superior general ability to anyone else. Thespecific pointI was making when I brought that up was to counteryourimplication that I was incorrectly projecting my own mindset or playstyle onto other players when it was not applicable, which you asserted without evidence. This hasnothingto do with my reads on anyone or attempting to convince someone on a read. It'sspecificallyto the contrary of you directly impugning my skills based on nothing at all.
Again, to reiterate: you implied that I fallaciously assume that people always think or play like me. I countered this notion, offering theevidencethat it's unlikely that someone can become paragon via assuming that people always think or play like them.- northsidegal
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