Mini Theme 2217 | Owner's market blitz | Over

[imaginality]

Hi all! My first game in forever.
The suggestion that we should vote the most strategic player as Market Owner, rather than the most townie-and-strategic, seems bad and maybe scummy.

VOTE: Alisae

[imaginality]

I don’t think Alisae explicitly was saying e should be MO. E was basically trying to make sure mechanics were handled right, and I think since Pooky hadn’t checked in e tried to drive the conversation

Wrong

in a vacuum the only marketplace owners that should even be worth considering is me and pooky as we're probably both the smartest mechanical players when it comes to this setup. Pooky is probably better at bidding than I am and I know this setup like the back of my hand.

It wasn't wanting to be marketplace owner that seemed suspicious to me though, it was the argument that the choice should be based on ability rather than towniness.

[imaginality]

Sure, but that's not what Alisae was saying.

i think gamma and kyouko are town

i think forming reads so quick is nai but i dislike it.

You only dislike it because we aren’t sheep that will listen to your weak cries for power

one trick to this game is asking what one can bid on . me i will be honest , im broke right now but wont say what went where till later on.

There doesn't seem to be a heap of good reasons for a town player to announce they've spent their full wad. There is a good reason for scum to - to deter town from voting you out.

VOTE: cyrus62

[imaginality]

On the powers: these all seem like pretty good powers for us to have or to keep out of scum hands. We can't block them since they have more cash. I think the best way to make sure they pay enough for them is if we all bid for exactly 1, bidding at least 401 for it, but randomly choosing which one to bid for (as in flip a coin twice, or use a 1-4 RNG). With 10 town players, that means there'd be a (3/4)^10 = 6% chance that no one bid for a particular power. So scum won't get any easy picks - if they want one they'll have to bid at least 402 for it, meaning we can outbid that player in future days.
I think that approach makes more sense than bidding for the one we individually decide is most important which could leave others 'easy pickings' for scum.

[imaginality]

Not much if you win your D1 bid, of course, but you get your money back if you're outbid.
If we get all four powers we still have six town players who can bid 400+ for other stuff D2.
I wouldn't recommend this for any mix of powers on D1, but in this case I think it's worth making sure we make these all pricey if scum want to outbid us, and this approach is the best I can see for ensuring we do that.

P-edit: yes, D2 it would not be smart to reveal who does/doesn't have money left.
Also that's why we should all bid 400+ on a random item today, as per my suggested approach, then scum can't gain any advantage by who they kill (beyond the usual factors).

[imaginality]

On the powers: these all seem like pretty good powers for us to have or to keep out of scum hands. We can't block them since they have more cash. I think the best way to make sure they pay enough for them is if we all bid for exactly 1, bidding at least 401 for it, but randomly choosing which one to bid for (as in flip a coin twice, or use a 1-4 RNG). With 10 town players, that means there'd be a (3/4)^10 = 6% chance that no one bid for a particular power. So scum won't get any easy picks - if they want one they'll have to bid at least 402 for it, meaning we can outbid that player in future days.
I think that approach makes more sense than bidding for the one we individually decide is most important which could leave others 'easy pickings' for scum.

Why did you decide to include Hitman amongst the roles we should roll for?

Because it's a potentially powerful role for scum in later days, lets them override any protective powers we may have. We shouldn't cough it up for free or low cost.

[imaginality]

On the powers: these all seem like pretty good powers for us to have or to keep out of scum hands. We can't block them since they have more cash. I think the best way to make sure they pay enough for them is if we all bid for exactly 1, bidding at least 401 for it, but randomly choosing which one to bid for (as in flip a coin twice, or use a 1-4 RNG). With 10 town players, that means there'd be a (3/4)^10 = 6% chance that no one bid for a particular power. So scum won't get any easy picks - if they want one they'll have to bid at least 402 for it, meaning we can outbid that player in future days.

I think that approach makes more sense than bidding for the one we individually decide is most important which could leave others 'easy pickings' for scum.

Numerically a good approach on days when all the powers are strong but hitman does not warrant 400 for a takeaway if the winning townie will live the day. This reminds me, under no circumstances (except extenuating deadline ones) should we hammer before claims in this game, even D1, as if a townie is going to be misexecuted, and they feel certain of it, they can potentially spend 500 on a scum role (today that is hitman) before they are hammered if they have not bid on anything yet.

It's also worth pointing out that based on the midday flip it appears that a single townie already bid their 500 dogebux by evenly spreading them amongst the 4 roles so our probability here is likely 8% rather than 6%, and that's only if all town follow the strat.

Two things:

First, the risk with designating a scum role as 'for the person who's about to be convicted to bid on' is:
- other townies don't bid on it, the convicted person gets quick-hammered, and scum get the role for cheap
- other townies don't bid on it, the convicted person is scum, and other scum get the role for cheap

Second, I agree it's reasonable to assume it was a single person who bid 125 on all four roles... but why do you assume they must be townie?

[imaginality]

Acutally, I'm going to follow up and VOTE: ssbm_Kyouko for post #179. Between that possible scum slip, and the downplaying of hitman... on which note, also if ssbm_Kyouko expects MO to draw the NK (per post #31) why didn't he suggest MO bid for scum powers like hitman instead of no-bid? I feel like he's scum hoping to pick up hitman for cheap.


And HEAL: imaginality

[imaginality]

5 hours after what is apparently scum trying to gauge where the town is bidding (whether Cyrus is scum or not, tbh he is the only player in the lobby I would say the 125 split is NAI for with confidence). They see nobody is bidding high yet. 5 hours later, in comes Imaginality to lead town toward spending 400 on all roles. Imagine scum dont bid on anything toDay. Town spends 1600,

loses 500, or 100 and a purchased role

, then in the likely situation that they avoid hitting the doctor target and get a kill, that's another 500 down.

The bolded part assumes we mis-exile. We could exile scum...
Even if we grant your assumption, we're 500 (or X and a purchased role) down x2 if scum successfully nightkill regardless of what bidding strategy we implement. It makes no sense not to bid hard - and without a PT the only way we can reliably cover all the PRs (enough to force scum to bid high for them) without scum knowing who to target for their NK is if we each choose randomly.

Where was this strategy before midday? We were already very deep into mechanical discussion when he made his previous post, so why not bring it up before midDay?

Hadn't thought of it by then. At first I was wondering if there was a way we could assign people by name to each PR but that gives scum too much information for their NK tonight and subsequent nights.

While his suggestion is appealing at first, even to me, from a numbers standpoint, I think what they are doing is baiting town into spending a lot of their money so that in later days scum can outbid.

We get our money back if we're outbid.
I think these roles are worth bidding for.
It's less advantageous to us to get roles on later days - less chance to use them, more chance to be NKed before using them.

The next bit gets tinfoil, but I would not be surprised to find out flea is the scum's preferred MO candidate and see that Imaginality eventually concedes and switches his vote there as I'm currently leading. Whether his means flea is scum or one of the scum has a friendly relationship with Flea that may lead Flea to elect that scum as a replacement, I do not know.

Right now if I vote someone other than me as MO I'd lean more towards Cupcake Butterfly.


@Misty re the scumslip: I felt the comment where ssbm assumed the 125 voter was town was suspicious - in that if he is scum (and they aren't the 125 voter(s)), he would know the 125 voter is town. So I feel that apparent assumption could be indicative of hidden knowledge.

[imaginality]

look i did it and now scum is going let me win all 4 and kill me at night.

Cyrus, who

actually

made those bids doesn't make a difference to my point that ssbm stating with certainty that town did it (before you started hinting it was you) is suspicious.

[imaginality]

look i did it and now scum is going let me win all 4 and kill me at night.

Cyrus, who

actually

made those bids doesn't make a difference to my point that

ssbm stating with certainty that town did it

(before you started hinting it was you) is suspicious.

Are you sure the bolded is your actual interpretation of my post (snipped below)?

It's also worth pointing out that based on the midday flip it appears that a single townie already bid their 500 dogebux by evenly spreading them amongst the 4 roles so our probability here is likely 8% rather than 6%, and that's only if all town follow the strat.

I admit I didn't remember the 'it appears' but I still think your decision to say 'townie' rather than 'player' is questionable. As is your downplaying of hitman in other posts.

[imaginality]

You still don't get that my point is he called you town and I don't see why that betting pattern means you're town.

@Distance: I think ssbm only considering the possibility that the 125-bidder is a townie was a slip scum might make (they know it wasn't scum). Or it could be a deliberate choice of words (if cyrus also scum). I just see it less likely that a townie would assume the bidder was another townie.

Aside from that, I haven't got a lot of other strong reads. Still slightly suspicious of Alisae/Gamma for Alisae pushing to have the MO chosen based on skill rather than towniness. And I feel like there might be a couple of players being pretty quiet so far? Need to reread and check the user list.

Can I assume from the lack of discussion of my 'bid 401+ on random choice' plan that no one sees any issues with it?
If so I hope everyone remembers to bid before the day end (actually before the market closes, 10 mins before the day end). If scum pick up anything from today's market for cheap I'm going to be pretty annoyed.

[imaginality]

A few reads:
I lean town on marcistar, VFP and Cupcake.
Also cyrus and Distance at least appear to be trying to scum hunt in their own ways.

Kitty really needs to post more as do Smoke and Mirrors. There's like only a day left in this Day phase!

If I wasn't voting ssbm, my vote right now would be on mastina (gut) or Gamma for reasons already mentioned about Alisae, plus Gamma tried to minimise it in #120

[imaginality]

Bedtime here (NZ). Back in 7hrs.
HEAL: Cupcake Butterfly - I don't want ssbm as MO, I think Cupcake is a better pick than Flea. I'd go for Flea if it's still between Flea or ssbm closer to day end though.

[imaginality]

In no way is it excessive spending. Considering at least 6 town players will get our money back, but probably more (if scum outbid us for one or more of the powers). If scum get two, tomorrow we still have six players with their full stack, and two with either their full stack or a PR (depending on how the voting and NK go).

[imaginality]

..?

I don't want ssbm as MO, I think Cupcake is a better pick than Flea. I'd go for Flea if it's still between Flea or ssbm closer to day end though.

what makes u want cupcake as market owner? (:

I think Cupcake is town, and I think Cupcake is capable of making smart choices about which powers to boost and which replacement to choose. And I wanted to choose someone with at least one vote already to make it more likely they could become a valid alternative to ssbm and Flea in time before day end.

[imaginality]

OK, so I haven't actually voted or pushed based on activity, I generally find activity to be NAI and I like to encourage people to participate.

Show your working for me? Because I am not seeing what you're seeing at all.

basically imagnality started saying i was sus for stateing like i was trying to get town cred for saying i was the one who bided on everything only after . ssbm said i looked like town. but before that he was trying to say i was bad for saying i blow my money already. it cant be both ways. either he isnt reading his own post or hes just making bad pushes.

In the early stage I felt it was bad because if certain players have announced they've spent all their money, it helps direct scum for the night kill (if they want to kill players who more likely still have a full wallet).
I also felt like it could have been an attempt to deter wagons on you i.e. "don't vote for me, I might have a PR".

When I saw the mid day market update and it was clear you must have been the 125 bidder (no bid of 500, and no one calling your claim to have spent all your money as a lie), then I felt like the particular way in which you spent your money wouldn't have had the wagon deterring effect so that lowered my suspicion of you.

[imaginality]

I never thought you were trying to get town cred through your bids though (if I understand that phrase correctly as 'trying to have others read you as town'. My point about that was more that other players might read you as having increased chance of having a PR and therefore riskier to exile all else being equal.

[imaginality]

In no way is it excessive spending. Considering at least 6 town players will get our money back, but probably more (if scum outbid us for one or more of the powers). If scum get two, tomorrow we still have six players with their full stack, and two with either their full stack or a PR (depending on how the voting and NK go).

So we have days 2, 3 and 4 to go with the spending, when then?

I'm not sure what your question is but if you're implying our money runs out too early under my approach, I don't think that's true:
- we have ten players
- bid are refunded if the bidder doesn't win
- each scum player can only outbid a town player once (if we're bidding 401 or more)

That means we win 7-10 of the PRs over the first three days (depending on scum bidding choices).

This only limits us when we get to day 4 bidding. Worst case (all convictions and NKs are town with PRs) we go into D4 with one town with PR and 3 with either a PR or a full wallet. I don't think that leaves us screwed over in the slightest, especially if our MO makes good choices about what to boost.

Also note that the above analysis assumes we bid high on all roles each day but depending on the roles on offer we can adjust our approach (e.g. If godfather comes up and we know we've already used the cop power, no point bidding for that).

[imaginality]

@Distance why did you vote for Kitty?

[imaginality]

I'm not sure why you think I believe the MO has direct control. I have never said that. All I said is that I don't think my plan leaves he in a bad spot for D4 and beyond 'especially if the MO makes good choices about what to boost'.
I play poker, I know good choices don't guarantee good outcomes. And my strategy isn't premised on the MO getting good outcomes, it would just be an additional help. Hence 'especially if' not 'but only if'

[imaginality]

Talking of impressions, I agree with the impression you have about cyrus re. the bidding.

Here's an alternate strategy, the '4 the lulz' strategy: no one bids, and scum also agree not to bid. Just because it would be funny if cyrus really wins all four roles for 125 each.

[imaginality]

Why to which? I prefer Cupcake for MO because I feel more confident in my town read on Cupcake than on Flea and as mentioned I see alignment as the main priority for choosing an MO.

If it comes down to a two-horse race I'd prefer Flea over ssbm for MO because I've been leaning scum on ssbm.

Albeit, ssbm's recent posting has come across better to me than the earlier posts.

[imaginality]

I will give free townpoints to the first person who can mention something that went wrong in their role PM tho as that happened to me so if it happened to someone else and they can describe it I am instantly masoning them for the rest of the game.

If you're thinking of the thing I'm thinking of I think it's not alignement indicative

[imaginality]

They who?

[imaginality]

I asked because I wanted to know why Distance quoted that post when voting Kitty.

I don't think Kitty's town. Of the people with votes on them in the above vote count, Kitty and ssbm are the only two I lean scum on. I was hoping to get more posts from Kitty (also Distance though they seem to actually be looking for scum). But activity seems slow and deadline isn't far away and I'm at work right now so I'm going to accept my ssbm case isn't winning hearts and minds today, and VOTE: Kitty

[imaginality]

The good thing about the abilities on the table today is, if town did get cop, there's no godfather around still. Agree the most likely scenario is that Kitty got it though. It would be dumb for scum to fake a guilty any time ahead of do-or-die since a 1 for 1 trade is bad for them. And faking an innocent is risky if either player gets eliminated.
Based on that I think the cop should use their ability tonight (if they haven't used it yet) and claim announcing their result by tomorrow latest. So that scum can't wait til do or die to claim it. And anyone who holds back on claiming it beyond tomorrow is very likely scum.

[imaginality]

In terms of reading buses, I feel like this game could be different from usual because scum have daytalk and because of the fixed day length. There's the possibility of more coordination.
It didn't really seem to me like there was anything much of that sort going on though, which makes me wonder whether at least one of the remaining two scum is a low activity player.

I noticed ssbm attempted to get another wagon going in #397 and #406. I'm not drawing conclusions from that but just noting it. Gamma's 'maybe I'll vote VFP' response to 397 is also something I'm wondering about (were they waiting to see if others would join on that wagon?)

[imaginality]

Oh true, I forgot Gamma was on Kitty rather than no-voting

[imaginality]

I also think I self vote at E1 there with hope that lack of bids go through as scum?

The mod said yesterday it's plurality voting assessed at deadline. So I don't think this would be possible.

the cop should use their ability tonight (if they haven't used it yet) and claim announcing their result by tomorrow latest. So that scum can't wait til do or die to claim it. And anyone who holds back on claiming it beyond tomorrow is very likely scum

Can we explicitly agree to this? I don't want to give scum the chance to fake claim cop on a later day when we can't do a one for one trade. Admittedly I think there's a fair chance Kitty bought it but I'd still like to get people's thoughts on record as to the above plan.

On ssbm_Kyouko, I'd like to stick with my scum read but the 426 vote was a neat bit of logic that seemed pretty pro town. And the mix of powers that came up in the market is pretty good for town. If ssbm is scum, he's smart scum playing the long game.

On the roles today I think we need to bid high for watcher so it costs scum if they want to deny us that role. I can also see auction detective being useful on later days depending what powers come up (I wouldn't waste those shots tonight). I don't personally see gravedigger as particularly useful. It could confirm if doc is dead e.g. if Flea won doc, but on the flip side, there's value in scum not being sure if doc is alive or not. So I'd suggest town players with money to bid bid high among the first three roles.

[imaginality]

(to clarify, the first three I mentioned - auction detectives and watcher, not the first three in the list)

[imaginality]

I think at least one of the people on the VFP wagon is scum. Because I think scum looking at how D1 went down would want to either start a mis-elim wagon early or get a counter-wagon going before it's too late.
VOTE: Mastina because she talked a lot about her vote but a lot of the logic seemed to contain some "in this scenario I think it's most likely VFP" statements where the reason for thinking it's most likely VFP wasn't really laid out.

[imaginality]

Town spent between 0 and 1586 yesterday depending how much cop went for and which winning bids were town or scum. Scum spent between 0 and 1886.
In terms of how much remaining, with 9 town remaining we have between 2614 and 4500 remaining. Scum have between 374 and 1600 remaining.

[imaginality]

Probably better to bid 500 today because then anyone outbidding you is provably scum, so there's a chance of an auction detective getting a guilty (if we win one of the auction detective powers). Compared with if you bid 380, they can bid 381-500 and still claim to be town.

[imaginality]

I had this neatly formatted and typed out but lost my post, ffs...

There is at least one scum in S&M and Distance, I think they just double bussed though. Triple ISO them with kitty. It seems to me the plan was to steal cop with the dead scum's wallet and save the rest of the money for later auctions when a town MO can no longer "guarantee" that no scum roles make it in. The fewer roles that remain, the less powerful the MO Enhancement becomes and the more likely a random role that benefits scum will slip in. By double bussing d1 they can ride out the game until a good scum power slips through

VOTE: S&M

If this is green I will reconsider Distance.

Good job, if you’re actually town here and town doesn’t want to lose, they should steer 100% clear of your shitty reads,

@Imaginality, still think this is town? Kyuku’s top srs are on the extremely likely pure Kitty wagon. I was going to unvote you but this screams setting up miselims to me.

The rationale for the scum double bus theory makes no sense to me. It seems likely scum would get Kitty to high-bid cop when they knew Kitty was about to be elimmed. But deliberately double-bussing Kitty, eh, I doubt it. Losing that 800 is going to hurt scum more than just a normal elim. Of course, the fact it seems particularly bad for scum would also boost the towncred reward if they pull it off. But it doesn't seem like the Kitty wagon was really pushed hard so it was a heck of a laid back double bus if it was one. Like I say I don't see it.

That said, I also don't think we should simply assume anyone in particular on the Kitty wagon is definitely town. A few people have done so so far: Gamma, Distance, you (S&M), and mastina:

quote="Gamma 440"]I think S&M hydra is probably confirmed town now right?[/quote]

i should be obvtown after that flip

I think Kitty wagon was all town and Mastina was obviously right on Flea, so this game should probably not be too hard to solve.

(plus the 'extremely likely pure wagon' comment above)

KittyTacky (4) - Distance, Smoke and Mirrors, Imaginality, Gamma Emerald

So I am treating y'all as conftown.

I think if there is scum on Kitty wagon it's least likely Gamma as I think scum bussing earlier in the wagon is more likely than late. I would reconsider that if VFP is scum (as that would mean there wasn't any chance of shifting the elimination away from scum).

But with scum really unable to afford another elim today and how strongly the VFP wagon built I think VFP is more likely town and that at least one scum is on the wagon.

Current VFP voters are:

VFP (5) - Mastina - Distance - marcistar - Cyrus62 - ssbm_Kyouko

Of those voters:

With ssbm I feel like I have a good sense of what I find suspicious and what I find townie, and I'm happy to watch and wait.

I'm happy to keep my vote on mastina for kicking off the VFP wagon (which given there had been votes on VFP end of D1, was quite likely to build up), and if mastina flips scum I think it's worth looking at the Kitty wagon again.

cyrus seems all over the place. I don't think that's an act. I feel like unless scum aren't bothering to talk, cyrus as scum would have slightly more of a clue about certain things?

I need to reread marci but retyping all this means it's 2am now, so sleep first, iso after. Pedit: would marci have unvoted if there was a competing wagon? If VFP gets elimmed and flips town that unvote will look convenient in retrospect.

I think if someone did bus Kitty it's more likely Distance than S&M. Their 'i should be obvtown' quote raises my eyebrow (too concerned with how others see them?) and the vote on VFP is unexplained but that could be a play style thing.

I will say I find the meta discussion hard to get into because I don't know anyone from other games and have no time to read dozens of games. The point someone made about Alisae being excited to play when scum made me feel slightly better about Gamma.


Also, why were all the midday bids so low. Come on people, bid high and make scum either give us powers or use their cash. If everyone bids high then it also helps auction detectives (if their target didn't bid today it means they either won a power d1 or are scum saving their cash). Scum can't outbid us for both auction detectives and watcher if we bid high on all three.

[imaginality]

Something bothers me about that imaginality wall

Something bothers

me

about that wall! Sorry about the broken quote, cyrus.

[imaginality]

Reposting in a tidied up easier to quote form:
---
I had this neatly formatted and typed out but lost my post, ffs...

There is at least one scum in S&M and Distance, I think they just double bussed though. Triple ISO them with kitty. It seems to me the plan was to steal cop with the dead scum's wallet and save the rest of the money for later auctions when a town MO can no longer "guarantee" that no scum roles make it in. The fewer roles that remain, the less powerful the MO Enhancement becomes and the more likely a random role that benefits scum will slip in. By double bussing d1 they can ride out the game until a good scum power slips through

VOTE: S&M

If this is green I will reconsider Distance.

Good job, if you’re actually town here and town doesn’t want to lose, they should steer 100% clear of your shitty reads,

@Imaginality, still think this is town? Kyuku’s top srs are on the extremely likely pure Kitty wagon. I was going to unvote you but this screams setting up miselims to me.

The rationale for the scum double bus theory makes no sense to me. It seems likely scum would get Kitty to high-bid cop when they knew Kitty was about to be elimmed. But deliberately double-bussing Kitty, eh, I doubt it. Losing that 800 is going to hurt scum more than just a normal elim. Of course, the fact it seems particularly bad for scum would also boost the towncred reward if they pull it off. But it doesn't seem like the Kitty wagon was really pushed hard so it was a heck of a laid back double bus if it was one. Like I say I don't see it.

That said, I also don't think we should simply assume anyone in particular on the Kitty wagon is definitely town. A few people have done so so far: Gamma, Distance, you (S&M), and mastina:

I think S&M hydra is probably confirmed town now right?

i should be obvtown after that flip

I think Kitty wagon was all town and Mastina was obviously right on Flea, so this game should probably not be too hard to solve.

(plus the 'extremely likely pure wagon' comment above)

KittyTacky (4) - Distance, Smoke and Mirrors, Imaginality, Gamma Emerald

So I am treating y'all as conftown.

I think if there is scum on Kitty wagon it's least likely Gamma as I think scum bussing earlier in the wagon is more likely than late. I would reconsider that if VFP is scum (as that would mean there wasn't any chance of shifting the elimination away from scum).

But with scum really unable to afford another elim today and how strongly the VFP wagon built I think VFP is more likely town and that at least one scum is on the wagon.

Current VFP voters are:

VFP (5) - Mastina - Distance - marcistar - Cyrus62 - ssbm_Kyouko

Of those voters:

With ssbm I feel like I have a good sense of what I find suspicious and what I find townie, and I'm happy to watch and wait.

I'm happy to keep my vote on mastina for kicking off the VFP wagon (which given there had been votes on VFP end of D1, was quite likely to build up), and if mastina flips scum I think it's worth looking at the Kitty wagon again.

cyrus seems all over the place. I don't think that's an act. I feel like unless scum aren't bothering to talk, cyrus as scum would have slightly more of a clue about certain things?

I need to reread marci but retyping all this means it's 2am now, so sleep first, iso after. Pedit: would marci have unvoted if there was a competing wagon? If VFP gets elimmed and flips town that unvote will look convenient in retrospect.

I think if someone did bus Kitty it's more likely Distance than S&M. Their 'i should be obvtown' quote raises my eyebrow (too concerned with how others see them?) and the vote on VFP is unexplained but that could be a play style thing.

I will say I find the meta discussion hard to get into because I don't know anyone from other games and have no time to read dozens of games. The point someone made about Alisae being excited to play when scum made me feel slightly better about Gamma.


Also, why were all the midday bids so low. Come on people, bid high and make scum either give us powers or use their cash. If everyone bids high then it also helps auction detectives (if their target didn't bid today it means they either won a power d1 or are scum saving their cash). Scum can't outbid us for both auction detectives and watcher if we bid high on all three.

[imaginality]

On SS:

SS town read VFP today, when VFP was already at 4 votes. But SS hasn't done anything to try to deter that wagon or start an alternative. I can see that town read as coming from scum who would know VFP will flip town but not want to prevent the mis-elim.

If SS turns out to be scum I think it extremely likely VFP is town.

Agree that we need to hear more from SS about scum reads. This close to deadline (unless deadline gets extended) everyone should have a vote on

someone

, so we can do decent analysis in later days.

[imaginality]

VOTE: Something_Smart
This puts SS to 2, so now there's an alternative to the VFP wagon. All you people not voting, time to get off the fence.

[imaginality]

@Gamma Emerald
@Smoke and Mirrors
@cyrus62
@marcistar
@ssbm_Kyouko

Unless I've missed a post, none of you are currently voting.
Someone is going to get eliminated in less than a day (barring an extension or explicit no-elim votes getting plurality)

Currently there are by my count 3 votes on VFP, 2 on Something_Smart, and 1 on mastina.

1. Who do you want to see eliminated out of those three?
2. Vote for that person before end of day

If your answer to 1 is "someone else", vote for that person.
If your answer to 1 is "don't elim anyone today", vote for No Execute.

If you don't vote for someone else (or no execute) I shall assume tomorrow you're happy with VFP being eliminated.

[imaginality]

@ssbm I noticed Flea's comment but I didn't assume it meant he was definitely bidding cop, I took it more as "Nancy got burned by my cop play in another game so I expect she, if scum, will bid high for cop to make sure I don't get it if I do bid for it."

Two immediate thoughts.
1. Mastina didn't cover "scum are trying to coin hunt" in the breakdown of possibilities for why Flea was killed. @Mastina does #705 change your analysis?

2. We shouldn't assume doc is town, it's quite possible it could be scum or even that Kitty got both roles (550 cop, 250 doc)

[imaginality]

I don't think the Flea-bidding-cop comment from Smoke and Mirrors is interesting but not enough to make me want to elim them today given they were on the Kitty wagon. Something_Smart or mastina are both better candidates today in my opinion.

[imaginality]

Idk if fae was referring to Pooky or someone else but it definitely couldn’t have possibly involved me.

Flea has never ever played with scum!me.

I would also like to point out Sherlock, assuming you are actually town here and capable of logical thought, that in no freaking world would scum!me be dumb enough to kill Flea after seeing that quote. I’m not scum but I’m so fed up with your ridiculous inability to see an blatantly obvious town ISO when you see it, I’m not sure I even care about parsing you if you’re going to be this bad.

If the quote didn't apply to you then why would you avoid killing Flea because of Flea saying that?

Given you can simply point out you haven't played as scum with Flea?

[imaginality]

I get a strong impression S&M is only going hard out against ssbm and me from feeling threatened by ssbm's suspicion of them and my questioning a couple of their points. It feels quite omgussy.

Regardless as I mentioned earlier I think it's too early to be voting for them. I don't regard the Kitty wagon as locktown but there are better options for the elim today.

@mod can we have a vote count?

1. Mastina didn't cover "scum are trying to coin hunt" in the breakdown of possibilities for why Flea was killed. @Mastina does #705 change your analysis?

coin hunting in this game IS PR hunting--either someone has 500 g or they have a role, those are the only possibilities for town.

I agree it's binary in that sense.
You didn't consider the possibility Flea was eliminated for

not

having a power role though, and who'd be likely to do that. You only raised it from the angle that scum might have targeted Flea because they thought Flea had a power role.

[imaginality]

@ssbm re. #605: that post begins: "There is at least one scum in S&M and Distance."

If you believed that then, if S&M flips green why would you reconsider Distance if you're sure one of the two is scum and you (as per that post) believe both are scum?

Compared to if you had said just "S&M and Distance are double bussing" where a green flip means a definite need to reconsider.

Seems to me like that first line might be the cause of S&M's view that you're looking to chain mis-elims. So I don't think they're misrepping that post as wildly as you think they are.

Something_Smart is a good choice for today's elimination. I like your theory about the "that's gonna be my excuse" post.

[imaginality]

@cyrus am I correct in interpreting your post as:

"I like my vote on S&M, but if Something_Smart flips town and ssbm_Kyouko lives to Day 3, then I will have a scum read on ssbm"?

[imaginality]

This reinforces the idea that at least 1 scum is a deepwolf, but i think another resides on VFP wagon. This assumes that the ganeatate points to VFP town which I think is plausible. I feel like if scum could've quockhammered a townie, they wouldn't because thwy would knowingly get turbo limmed with deadlines this short and votes coming down to "3? You're dead."

I've seen several people mention quick hammering (or quockhammering ) but I don't think scum

can

quick hammer under this rule set can they (except when it's already very close to deadline)? Like, if VFP got that extra vote when VFP was E-1 early this game day, we'd still carry on to end of market day and people could leave that wagon, and in theory it could even end up with someone else being eliminated.

[imaginality]

Weekend stuff.

UNVOTE: Gamma

Kitty may be scum for multiple reasons. I'll think when I'm on.

I'm also happy to put everyone on the Kitty wagon as town.
Scum looked dis organised or just absent to not move over to me or even try else where.

This reinforces the idea that at least 1 scum is a deepwolf, but i think another resides on VFP wagon. This assumes that the ganeatate points to VFP town which I think is plausible. I feel like if scum could've quockhammered a townie, they wouldn't because thwy would knowingly get turbo limmed with deadlines this short and votes coming down to "3? You're dead."

I've seen several people mention quick hammering (or quockhammering ) but I don't think scum

can

quick hammer under this rule set can they (except when it's already very close to deadline)? Like, if VFP got that extra vote when VFP was E-1 early this game day, we'd still carry on to end of market day and people could leave that wagon, and in theory it could even end up with someone else being eliminated.

Then I'm very interested to hear on what you think VFP's alignment is, and how the wagon might have influenced that read, alongside how it helps you read his wagoners.

I think VFP is highly likely town.
Partly that's a read based on posting (activity a bit inconsistent but seems to be actively trying to solve things/raise questions, also I don't think scum unvote at the end of D1 rather than bus Kitty or try to get a different wagon in place).

Partly it's because of the D2 wagon - I feel like scum who reflected on how D1 went down would want to get a wagon on town going early on D2 because I really don't think they want to risk a second scum elim. So when the wagon grew quickly on VFP it led me to feel more confident in my town read.

Also I feel like VFP reacted reasonably to the wagon, still analysing others and asking a few decent questions rather than just self-defense or omgussy posting.

Will comment on the wagoners in my next post.

[imaginality]

The VFP wagon today:

1. post 483, mastina votes VFP for no reason: "If I had to take a blind guess of blind guesses, it'd be VFP + Cupcake Butterfly but I've got literally zero logic for this."
2. post 522 mastina invents some logic which conveniently turns out to justify staying on VFP
3.post 524, Smoke and Mirrors agrees with mastina and adds VFP's pseudo-vote on Misty as another reason
4.post 532, Smoke and Mirrors unvotes to look at CB
5.post 537, Distance votes VFP, no reason given
6.post 542, Smoke and Mirrors votes VFP again for the pseudo-vote on Misty
7.post 545, marcistar votes VFP and says if she were scum VFP would be dead
8.post 546, cyrus62 votes VFP wondering what the flip would mean
9.post 565, Smoke and Mirrors unvotes VFP because ssbm swung from pushing VFP D1 to not D2
10.post 671, marcistar unvotes because of being busy
11.post 679, cyrus62 quotes Cupcake's pro VFP post and says "no one should vote till we do reads better"

1 looks bad to me because it's not D1, there were votes on VFP D1 so claiming to vote VFP for no reason is lazy. Maybe too obviously bad? Add in that 2 seems like biased logic at best, and you can I hope see why I didn't like this from mastina. I have recognised that out of game stuff makes it difficult to push more on mastina today though so I'm parking this til D3, we have time
3,4,6,9 in the context of S&M's other posts seem like reasonably legit scum hunting
5,7,8 are all unimpressive votes from Distance, marci and cyrus, and cyrus's unvote 11 seems like sheeping marci's unvote 10

Distance parking on VFP and going awol is also a bad look.

Overall I don't think anyone on the VFP wagon has covered themselves in glory. Like even if VFP flipped scum this is not awesome scum hunting.

[imaginality]

Wow lots to go read...

[imaginality]

What are the votes at rn?

[imaginality]

If we take cyrus being around at deadline as scum-indicative that means they definitely decided to bus Kitty, yes? I don't think I'm ready to sign onto that yet. Whereas Misty was awol and I think D1 was more a case of awol scum than deliberately bussing scum.

Also hi imaginality

Can you talk about why you scumread my slot? I feel like you really haven't done that much, at least that I have seen

I don't have a super strong scum read on you, but I prefer it to ssbm or VFP. As mentioned mastina is higher in my scum reads.

One factor why I lean scum on you is this:

On SS:

SS town read VFP today, when VFP was already at 4 votes. But SS hasn't done anything to try to deter that wagon or start an alternative. I can see that town read as coming from scum who would know VFP will flip town but not want to prevent the mis-elim.

Another is Misty's posts about not bothering to scum hunt because this can be solved by PoE.

Another is Misty didn't seem to be doing much at end of day D1 and I feel like active scum would have more likely saved Kitty than bussed. So therefore I'm more inclined to scum read players who weren't doing much near deadline.

[imaginality]

look i did it and now scum is going let me win all 4 and kill me at night.[/quote]

I don’t understand what he’s thinking. Why publicly out any of this? He’s acting like he’s buying up prs and simultaneously trying to get Nk’d which completely defeats the purpose of doing so. I just don’t find this makes a whole lot of sense because any invest role is useless if you get NK’d. This could also possibly be lamisty. Either way, it looked like he was just throwing votes around without really putting too much thought into any of them.[/quote]

I doubt the cyrus scum reads because:
- it means scum cyrus didn't try to get on the Kitty wagon despite being active day end
- it means the above quoted post from cyrus, and similar ones, are acting rather than genuine and I don't get that sense; I think confusion is hard to fake and I think he'd be less confused about stuff if he was scum

@cyrus

if you're online, and town, and you haven't yet bid all your money, don't bid any more unless you're no longer the likeliest to be elimmed - if you're town and get elimmed it's better for us if you don't take any powers down with you

[imaginality]

(different to D1 where it would be worth the mis-elim candidate bidding high on the hitman power)

Ugh sorry about quote tag fail

[imaginality]

@Imaginality, I wanted to save bleeding obvtown!SS and I didn’t know who else to vote. So if you have a better idea we can get 4 votes on or maybe 5, I’ll switch.

Something about the tone of this post rings a little off to me. Will think on it overnight.

With the mix of reads I don't think we can get another wagon to 4 or 5 before the day ends. But if you want to come and VOTE: mastina with me feel free...

[imaginality]

@other townies, I don't know if bids will count now or only up to the official deadline, but if you haven't bid yet go bid 500 for something. These are good powers (well I still think gravedigger is overrated, but the other ones are good).

[imaginality]

13 posts in a row?

I'm not going to be able to keep up on quantity with you today, that's just nuts.

Here's some brief responses:

The comment you bolded and 'dafuq'ed was simply me observing that there wasn't much solid reasoning in the VFP wagon votes so as I saw it, if VFP flipped town the wagoners would be right more by chance than by brilliant deduction.

Your theory that Flea's comment gives me reason to kill Flea is hypocritical when you argued Flea's comment to Nancy wasn't a reason for you to kill Flea.

[imaginality]

Oops, clicked submit too soon.

Re. my posts and my bid, I encouraged town to bid high because I want us to keep scum from getting powers that are useful to us and I think getting powers early is better than late. The reason I bid 90 should be obvious.

I find the fact scum didn't hide any of the bids yesterday interesting. Makes me wonder if they bid 500 on watcher early in an attempt to appear town when they claim it later. On the flip side if town got watcher it would be one reason for the relatively unexpected Distance NK - avoid being watched.

[imaginality]

Smoke And Mirrors - Something_Smart - Cupcake Butterfly - Gamma Emerald - ssbm_Kyouko

No way the cyrus wagon is all town.
VOTE: Something_Smart

Will reread the others tomorrow (evening here) but happy to continue my vote on SS for now.

[imaginality]

The only town read Distance pushed hard was marci. And Distance's final post was a willingness to elim anyone not on the Kitty wagon. So I think if there's an additional reason for the Distance kill it will be that someone who read Distance as town wants extra credit for that read.

[imaginality]

Rather than being much about Distance's own reads

[imaginality]

On marci's gravedigger claim: if cop is town they should claim now. As I said D2, if cop hasn't used their shot yet, they're scum. If cop doesn't claim now, they're scum or dead.

No cop claim after today should be believed.

Also if marci is telling the truth it appears scum aren't smart enough to pile Kitty's money onto bids, or that the smart scum weren't around towards the end of D1 to suggest that, so that might help inform consideration of the possible pairings.

[imaginality]

Yes, exactly which wouldn’t in itself be sus except he made several posts bitching and complaing about town not bidding enough. Meanwhile, he was saving most of his pennies for later.

@Imaginality, why is you bidding “obvious”? If you wanted town to bid high and you bid low, that’s obviously hypocritical.

He encouraged all of town to bid high but he bids next to nothing. Why didn’t he take his own advice?

I was really hoping I could find a good reason to scum read you because your tone annoys me and I can't really engage with the meta arguments. And it would be convenient for scum to get rid of someone who was on the Kitty wagon and not on the cyrus one.

Annoyingly there are two good reasons to town read you. One is I think if you were scum you would have picked up on what's not stated in the above, as you would have more reason to. Your continued focus on it feels more like confused town than bluffing scum.

The second is you are so tunnelled on me being scum you're going to have to backtrack a heap if I get elimmed and flip town.

Then vote me.
I've already clarified I've bid what I have on the Ninja role.
You being wrong works better to be shown on me rather than Imaginality for multiple reasons.

Let's not give it the talk if you aren't going to move your vote back to me.
And again, let's not let off that SSBM did a strange swap off me even though I'm scum to them.

If you really believe Kyuku is scum, then vote Imaginality because that is the only possible slot that even makes sense as a possible Kyouku buddy.

He was totally willing to let SS hang yesterday until I pushed the Cyrus switch, so suggesting that Kyouku and SS are buddies makes 0 sense.

Just in case anyone is skim reading, the 'he' here refers to Kyouko rather than me - I never joined the cyrus wagon.

VOTE: imaginality
Recent posting has made me feel like the odds of VFP and kyouko being aligned are lesser so within the {VFP,kyouko,imaginality} POE this is the sensible choice until I can turn my feelings into logical thoughts

Why's Gamma accepting the VFP/Kyouko/me POE?

Towards the end of D1 I think Kitty and VFP were the only realistic elim candidates. Gamma jumped on Kitty wagon. I initially thought it was unlikely for scum to bus unless VFP was also scum. I guess Gamma + VFP is possible but I am also wondering whether Gamma would be bold enough to bus even if VFP is town.

VOTE: imaginality
Recent posting has made me feel like the odds of VFP and kyouko being aligned are lesser so within the {VFP,kyouko,imaginality} POE this is the sensible choice until I can turn my feelings into logical thoughts

+1

Exactly, I don’t see VFP and Kyouku as aligned based on him trying to switch the vote from Kitty to VFP and I hard tr everyone else in this game, so both scum in Imaginality/VFP/Kyouku. I just don’t think it’s him but if I’m wrong on VFP, Imaginality endgames regardless which one he’s partnered with. But everything about Imaginality’s ISO and the similar pushes makes me lean towards Imaginality/VFP but I think if I’m wrong on one of them, it’s more likely to be VFP than Imaginality but I actually don’t think I’m wrong though.

VFP’s reaction to my suggesting he vote Imaginality really really pinged me. I got the impression that Kyouku otoh, isn’t actually opposed to that.

I think ssbm_Kyouko deliberately buddied me a bit especially on D2.

I noticed (see some earlier post of mine) ssbm_Kyouko tried to shift people away from Kitty wagon to VFP wagon D1.
#406
And I noticed ssbm_Kyouko has seemed happy to be led onto town wagon D2, and town wagon today.
And ssbm_Kyouko picked up on what I wasn't saying about my bid.

VOTE: ssbm_Kyouko and if he flips scum I think it makes VFP likely town.

Also if he flips scum it imo makes watcher a tad more likely to be scum (if he boosted it for town cred while planning for him or his buddy to bid 500 on it early if it came up).

Bonus point of slimming ssbm - he claimed hitman and so if he is scum and hasn't used that power yet it dies with him.

[imaginality]

with scum really unable to afford another elim today and how strongly the VFP wagon built I think VFP is more likely town and that at least one scum is on the wagon.

Current VFP voters are:

VFP (5) - Mastina - Distance - marcistar - Cyrus62 - ssbm_Kyouko


Of those voters:

With ssbm I feel like I have a good sense of what I find suspicious and what I find townie, and I'm happy to watch and wait.

I'm happy to keep my vote on mastina for kicking off the VFP wagon (which given there had been votes on VFP end of D1, was quite likely to build up), and if mastina flips scum I think it's worth looking at the Kitty wagon again.

cyrus seems all over the place. I don't think that's an act. I feel like unless scum aren't bothering to talk, cyrus as scum would have slightly more of a clue about certain things?

I need to reread marci but retyping all this means it's 2am now, so sleep first, iso after. Pedit: would marci have unvoted if there was a competing wagon? If VFP gets elimmed and flips town that unvote will look convenient in retrospect.

Hmm... If I was right here, with Distance dying and cyrus flipping town, that narrows it down to scum being at least one of {mastina, marcistar, ssbm_Kyouko}

[imaginality]

Hot take: Smoke and Mirrors vs ssbm is tvt.

Doesn't seem like an especially hot take to me, but why?

Well Smoke and Mirrors is clearly town here because this is transparently Nancy's towngame through and through. It's painfully obviously Nancy's town meta, with every marker which that entails, beyond her ability to fake it as scum. Even were she having the scum performance of her life, I meant it when I said that the fact that the slot was voting scum on D1 and contains Pooky means that the slot is 100% guaranteed locktown. It IS literally a nearly 20-year-old tell for Pooky that is borderline trust tell. Pooky's relative absence from the game be damned, he's not letting a tell that old randomly be broken. He's not flaked from the hydra altogether, per Nancy and also per common sense. (If Pooky

were

100% completely and entirely out of the game I would expect Nancy to replace in solo or replace her hydra with a different hydra to get a different partner.)

ssbm is also someone there's a lot of reasons for me to think is town, but beyond those, ssbm vs Smoke+Mirrors just has literally every single classical marker of a TvT fight. It screams, bleeds, TvT to its very core at every stage.

He's town is why. He was the alternative to Kitty.

Why can't the two top wagons be S/S?

My thoughts exactly. There's nothing in how the game has played out which says that VFP was a scumdriven counterwagon to the towndriven wagon on scum. And for that matter, nothing but paranoia about VFP's L-1 wagon on D2 having scum there, when multiple members of the VFP wagon on D2 are town with a high degree of certainty. cyrus? Flipped town. Distance? Flipped town. Smoke and Mirrors? 100% conftown to me. me? Also conftown to me. marcistar? Highly highly likely to be town. The L-1 wagon on VFP was in fact in high probablity? All town.

The only possible scum there is marcistar who Distance, the nightkill, hard-vouched as being town, a read I am inclined to sheep.

I realize that others don't have the advantage of conftowning me so that objectively I could be scum on the VFP wagon--but from my point of view the wagon is as close to confirmed all-town as it can be without being confirmed as all town.

@Mastina do you tr kyuku? Having her top srs 2 slots that actually voted scum really weirds me out.

Not to the same extent as I townread the scum voters D1 or the MistyX/S_S slot, but loosely? Yes. I see enough in SSBM's contributions to think they are more likely town than not, including their usage of the Market Owner power, and they were voted Market Owner on D1 by, how many people? 5? That's 5 people who trusted SSBM to be one of the towniest yet mechanically-best players and to some extent I want to trust in their read.

So SSBM isn't a top townread but IS a townread.

My readslist right now would be:
{Distance, Smoke and Mirrors, Imaginality, Gamma Emerald} (all conftown to me)
Mistyx/Something_Smart (basically conftown to me)

ssbm_Kyouko (townread but not the locktown tier of the above)

(huge gap)

marcistar

(somewhat of a gap)

{cyrus, Cupcake Butterfly} (I think exactly one of them is scum but not both)

VFP

I just isoed those three for their reads/comments on each other. Marc's interactions with/comments on ssbm seem genuine to me.

Mastina's read on ssbm is fairly consistently 'town but not top tier town' kinda stuff, and often distancing herself by saying 'well other people are saying ssbm is town' kind of stuff.
Mastina on marci starts off more neutral but shifts to calling marci 'very very likely' town, I think partly again due to other people's meta reads on marci.
Ssbm fairly consistently has mastina in 'a bit town but not top tier town' category.

Marci and ssbm interacted a fair bit D1, I felt it was genuine rather than scum talking with scum.
Marci hasn't had much to say on mastina but did give a weak town read and voted VFP over mastina when I asked people to get off the fence.

My conclusion is if two of these three are scum, then based on interactions I think it's mastina and ssbm. Outside chance of mastina and marci.

[imaginality]

To expand: the "I think ssbm is town because other people are saying he is and I believe them" line is convenient for mastina in a mastina-ssbm scenario because she can boost ssbm's standing while also being nicely set up to say "well shucks, I only town read ssbm because

those people

told me he was," if ssbm gets elimmed and flips red.

[imaginality]

I think ssbm_Kyouko deliberately buddied me a bit especially on D2.

Do you have examples?

On a reread I retract this. Maybe it was Cupcake I was thinking of?

[imaginality]

Since a couple of people have already figured it out and we only have a day and a bit real-time left, I will explain for anyone still wondering: my bid of 90 D2 (on 1-shot AD) was because I won roleblocker for 410 D1.

I bid 90 without any real expectation I might win the role (though that's why I went for 1-shot AD - on the off-chance it could have been overlooked by other bidders, more as a breadcrumb to anyone who ADed me. I thought if they were town and figured out I won the RB it would prove my bids are consistent with my in-thread arguing that we should bid high. And also I don't think scum would want to give a clue that they got the RB so the crumb itself should be seen as town-indicative.

I wasn't particularly worried about scum being the AD because I thought they'd have better players to target from their POV, if they did get an AD, and also thought they'd likely save their money D2 for scum roles in later days so the chances of them getting AD didn't seem super high to me. Also just mathematically there's more chance it would be won by town.

As a side note, I also don't particularly think scum would bid high for RB D1, though others may have different views. Hitman which ssbm bid for, I see differently, since that 1-shot could guarantee a kill on an important target in various scenarios. 1-shot RB doesn't really do that, unless protective roles are outed or scum guess right.

When S&M said they'd ADed me but didn't draw the obvious conclusion, like I say, that seemed townie because I feel like it would be important for scum to figure out who the RB is so I feel they would have made the mental connection of 500-90=410, and perhaps not even have shared the details of my bid in public.

Ssbm and marci both picked up on what the 90 means.

You could still question whether scum would remark publicly on that rather than privately, I can see it both ways because it is a way for them to look like they're doing something useful. Also marci used it to read me as town whereas ssbm just commented on it in a musing way which seems the more questionable of the two to me.

Gamma also commented saying it was a weird bid. I think that post is a little more likely to come from town than scum.

I feel like it is obvious enough now to scum (if they didn't figure it out from S&M's post they will have from thinking about marci/ssbm/vfp's posts) that there is no point me not just claiming it outright, hence this post.

I haven't used my RB yet. I was hoping to make it further into the game and use it when we're down to one scum left. Right now even if I targeted scum their partner could have carried out the kill, and there were no other anti-town PRs to target.

In the absence of protection I'd expect it likely I die tonight. I don't think scum would want one of their later day NKs to be blocked.

If people believe my claim and believe me to be town, I'd suggest we deter scum from me without necessarily using up our powers. E.g. If watcher watch me on a coin flip, and doc protect me on a coin flip, that would give me 75% chance of protection if both are scum/dead and 50% if one is.

At any rate even if you don't think I deserve any protection, elim me on a later day rather than today because there's a nonzero chance I'd be able to do something useful with my RB in the meantime.

Also, the mod confirmed to me I can't roleblock hitman so a bonus reason to join me in voting ssbm instead of me today is if ssbm is scum they lose hitman.

[imaginality]

EBWOP: above should read marci/ssbm/

vfp's

Gamma's posts.

I did have a hunch VFP had cottoned on too when saying it was better to elim themselves rather than me but a. There could be other reasons for them to say that (e.g. how much info a mis-elim would give on them vs on me) and b. even if it was a factor in that post I think that comment was vague enough it wouldn't lead others to deduce I have the RB power.

I do still think VFP is more likely town than scum. I would be okay with eliminating from {mastina, Something_Smart, and ssbm_Kyouko} today.

And I won't be voting from {Smoke & Mirrors, marcistar, VFP}.

Cupcake and Gamma I'm open to hearing a case on but don't have much on either of them myself. I'll be rereading them in this next night phase if I'm not elimmed today.

[imaginality]

Let's put aside the idea that any townie would be dumb enough to bid 499 on godfather.
For scum to bid for it makes little sense because cop was a one shot role and if town had got cop it's extremely likely we'd have used the shot already.
So therefore scum wouldn't be worried about cop and wouldn't feel the need to get godfather.

My explanation for the godfather bid is it's scum trying to make us believe they think town have cop. So, in contrast, I think cop was likely won by scum and any cop claim for the rest of the game is extremely likely a fake claim.

[imaginality]

@mod, question about gravedigger/auction mechanics:

if a player is eliminated by plurality, not nightkill, and has also won the bid on an item, would they have "died with the ability" for the purposes of a gravedigger result, or does the dead player technically gain the ability/win the bid after they are dead?

Basically asking, without asking you to confirm kitty won anything, or that Marci actually targeted kitty:

If kitty won cop d1 and was gravedigged last night, would the gravedigger have seen that kitty died with cop?

yes, the dead player still wins the item, and kitty would have shown with it

What pro town reason is there for showing you have most of your money intact?

Not that you do any more, if you're town and scum don't bother outbidding you.

Why would scum assume the cop hadn't used their shot before D3?

And why make the assumption that the other scum wouldn't bid for cop themselves, if they were concerned and Kitty was absent?

[imaginality]

If Gamma and VFP both bid these amounts today the scumteam can no longer outbid everyone for the daykill.

This means gamma isn't scum

with

VFP.

Same would apply to the VFP-me scum pairing some people have been mooting. Or me-Gamma for that matter.

S&M, does ssbm's point change your views on me and/or VFP?

[imaginality]

@S_S why would that be an awkward position?

Because if marci is scum then possibly Kitty got the cop and she can fake confirm herself by saying Distance had the cop and clearly inno'd her.

I might locktown you for this as I didnt expect anyone else to have figured that out, and I doubt scum is trying to figure that out unless Marci is scum. I dont think there's any reason for you to bus scum!marci here either

I think you overestimate how difficult that was to figure out.

[imaginality]

Where is Cupcake? No posts at all today?

[imaginality]

Using my phone - missed the smallprint above.
I don't like that Cupcake's voting record consists of no votes D1, a vote on mastina and then on cyrus D2, and no votes D3. It's so minimal.

[imaginality]

I don't like that Cupcake's voting record consists of no votes D1, a vote on mastina and then on cyrus D2, and no votes D3. It's so minimal.

well they also like havent talked at all today like uve noted, so no voting today isn't really weird behavior. it wouldve been much weirder if they came in and placed a vote and left

I'm not saying it's weird they haven't voted much given they haven't posted much. I'm saying it is bad because it gives us so little to analyse. Especially, the complete lack of votes both D1 and today so far.

[imaginality]

No, more because I'm past caring how this day goes.

Hey VFP, if you think I'm town then there are alternatives to eliminating me or you today, especially now S&M has unvoted.

What do you think of Cupcake Butterfly, Something_Smart and ssbm_Kyouko? They all have a vote on them (if I'm counting correctly, maybe not,

@mod can we have a vote count?

), your vote as well could well make them the elim candidate. My vote is on ssbm right now but as I said, I'd also be willing to vote for SS or CB.

[imaginality]

ngl, not a fan of marcistar's push on S_S

Vfp, why vote Imaginality now? To prove you 2 arent scum together?

@everyone, if mastina flipped red right now, who would her partner be? I'm entertaining a theory right now of scum!mastina town!vfp and I think I see a likely partner, wanna know what others think, especially curious what S&M, Gamma, and Imaginality think as members of the Kitty wagon.

Something_Smart, you (as I previously mentioned) or Gamma look like the only realistic possibilities to me. I did consider Cupcake - mastina mentions 'VFP and Cupcake' as scum buddies a lot but talks a lot less about Cupcake in isolation and I was wondering if that's so she can change her Cupcake read after a VFP town flip. With VFP the main wagon during that discussion it seems like a safe time to call your scum buddy scummy (in this mastina-CB scenario). But my hunch is mastina would be willing to vote Cupcake.

[imaginality]

Distance has died ! they were a [/color]

Vanilla Townie

For the record

I made a pretty damn high bid [/q] (but not 500) on Watcher because I was intending to watch Distance.

.

S_S, mastina, did either of you bid more than 325 on cop D1?

No. I've placed bids on every item every single day so generally speaking?

None of my bids have exceeded 200

because I'm always splitting my bids between four different items. (I still have a full wallet because everyone has bid higher than 200 every single day and I can't go much higher than 200 on any single bid of mine due to me spreading my money out. I can go slightly higher than 200, but not by much, because I've multiple hundreds on other items, meaning only one item per day I have a chance of getting.)

Seems pretty absolute to me, and like you say, a clear contraction (200 is not "pretty damn high" by anyone's standards).

VOTE: mastina

[imaginality]

Distance has died ! they were a [/color]

Vanilla Townie

For the record

I made a pretty damn high bid

(but not 500) on Watcher because I was intending to watch Distance.

.

Corrected quote tags

S_S, mastina, did either of you bid more than 325 on cop D1?

No. I've placed bids on every item every single day so generally speaking?

None of my bids have exceeded 200

because I'm always splitting my bids between four different items. (I still have a full wallet because everyone has bid higher than 200 every single day and I can't go much higher than 200 on any single bid of mine due to me spreading my money out. I can go slightly higher than 200, but not by much, because I've multiple hundreds on other items, meaning only one item per day I have a chance of getting.)

Seems pretty absolute to me, and like you say, a clear contraction (200 is not "pretty damn high" by anyone's standards).

VOTE: mastina

[imaginality]

S&M does mastina's self-contradiction about her bidding concern you?

[imaginality]

I also don't like how when I argued why town should bid high D1 and D2, mastina didn't engage in that discussion but did bid low. Clearly she felt I was wrong so why not question it or disagree? Keeping quiet while believing someone is pushing town to adopt a bad strategy seems anti-town.


There's a possible pro-town answer - to avoid scum knowing that she still likely had a full wallet - but as per mastina's discussion of VFP, she wasn't thinking of scum as coin-hunting rather than PR hunting. So I doubt that was the reason.

[imaginality]

Talking of #703, I think Something_Smart, VFP, Cupcake are currently not voting and the current vote count is:

mastina (1) - imaginality
Cupcake Butterfly (2) - ssbm_Kyouko, mastina
Something_Smart (1) - Marcistar
imaginality (2) - Gamma Emerald ,S&M

with about 30 mins to deadline.

SS, VFP, CB: show a stance, vote for someone.

If you don't vote I'll assume you're okay with eliminating me and oh boy, will I have words to say tomorr- oh, wait, I'll be dead.

[imaginality]

I think mastina is a better candidate because of prior stated reasons and I hope her recent contradiction might sway people to join me. Also there's a lot more informative from a mastina elimination than a Cupcake one.

If it gets to like 5 mins left and no one has joined me then sure, I'll switch to CB because I know I'm not scum.

[imaginality]

To clarify, the recent posts about her contradiction - the contradiction itself wasn't recent just the discussion of it

[imaginality]

I think town just votes CB. Why be afraid to self-preserve over a lurker actually? If you're town you just fuck the lurker, your contributions are worth more

VOTE: Imaginality

If this is red I need to reconsider Marci

There's still time to self preserve. As I said earlier, I'm open to eliminating CB but I was hoping to do better than that.

[imaginality]

Well, fine.
VOTE: Cupcake Butterfly

[imaginality]

I think town just votes CB. Why be afraid to self-preserve over a lurker actually? If you're town you just fuck the lurker, your contributions are worth more

VOTE: Imaginality

If this is red I need to reconsider Marci

Why wouldn't scum vote a lurker to self preserve? Only reason is if they're buddies. So if you think I'm scum you can get back to voting CB. If you're right you still get scum. If you're wrong a town roleblocker lives and who knows CB might be scum anyhow.

[imaginality]

5 minutes for you to realise there's no way CB is town if I'm scum, and get back to CB.
. When sticking to my mastina vote earlier I didn't count on you switching from CB to me

[imaginality]

Eliminating me for not doing something you think is scummy if people do it?
Reminds me of Life of Brian:
Oh alright then, I am the Messiah!
If I vote CB it's scummy, if I don't it's scummy, either way, you're wrong.

[imaginality]

I'm glad we got stances at least

Definitely an interesting couple of pages!

[imaginality]

Also he only fakeclaims rb as scum if he knows another scum got it. That could have been kitty again if you are his partner.

Or you know, Kitty could have told me in the scum chat. Except I'm not scum. But interesting you didn't mention that possibility.

[imaginality]

Roleblocker resolves first, I mentioned that already.

[imaginality]

Also,

imaginality:

while it's looking like we're not getting a scumflip since you refuse to see VFP as scum, in case we actually DO have a scumflip, you should announce your roleblock as the only player who could bypass the roleblock is ssbm. So IF we get a scumflip, and IF there is a kill, the player you block is cleared. (I'm pretty sure this even applies if scum take the jailkeeper, since I'm pretty sure that a roleblocker roleblocking a jailkeeper making a kill takes priority, but we should check with Gypyx there.)

Obviously, if we don't get a scumflip which we're apparently not going to get, then it's your choice what to do. Holster, hipshoot, whatever. Still target the blocked person or target someone else, up to you.

But IF we get a scumflip, then you should say who you are targeting.

If we get a scum flip I will roleblock Something_Smart.

[imaginality]

S&M does mastina's self-contradiction about her bidding concern you?

Explain it to me again please.

mastina saying she made a "damn high bid".
mastina saying all her bids are <= 200

even if

you start from the idea that we bid 125 on each role (and I have no idea why she makes that her default position), 200 is

Still not

"damn high". It reduces the other bids from 125 to 100.

[imaginality]

S&M does mastina's self-contradiction about her bidding concern you?

Explain it to me again please.

mastina saying she made a "damn high bid".
mastina saying all her bids are <= 200

even if

you start from the idea that we bid 125 on each role (and I have no idea why she makes that her default position), 200 is

Still not

"damn high". It reduces the other bids from 125 to 100.

Couldn’t that just be a difference in interpretation? I would vote Kyouku before Mastina.

Sure, it could be. It's not conclusive evidence in and of itself.

[imaginality]

I didn't target anyone.
So either the jailkeeper jailkept scum, or jailkept scum's target, or the doctor protected town, or the scum no-killed.

[imaginality]

Whichever it is, I expect scum to push hard to elim me today (or jailkeeper and/or doc if they claim and aren't scum), since another no-kill night would give us an extra mis-elim.

Hello Gamma, why are you voting me?

[imaginality]

My guess is some combination of:
-Distance was on the Kitty wagon (though I think if this was a factor it makes it more likely the Kitty wagon was all town, or else scum would rather have more wagoners around to hide among)
-Distance's reads were good (Kitty scum, cyrus town, marci seems like a good call as town)
- Distance voted VFP
- scum were coin-hunting and Distance hadn't claimed any PRs
- avoiding town PRs (despite what some have said, I don't think Distance was the most obvious target for D2 nightkill, so I think scum would see Distance as someone who might not be protected/watched. If this was a factor then either doc or watcher is town (or dead)

[imaginality]

I won the 1x jailkeeper, and I jailkept marcistar last night.

i think we should trust mastina unless theres a cc or anything. i tried digging and it failed, dont see anything else to explain this.

I didn't target anyone.
So either the jailkeeper jailkept scum, or jailkept scum's target, or the doctor protected town, or the scum no-killed.

i don't think its very likely scum no killed, they 100% need to get the number of very trusted townies down to get a shot at winning (and before more people can be thought of in a "near confirmed" way), not killing at this state would be detrimental for them.

I agree it's unlikely. To be clear I 100% believe mastina jailed you, I just don't think it means mastina is locktown. I do agree it would be very risky for scum to try it though (given a successful doc or roleblock could give town an extra day). For now I'm proceeding under the assumption mastina and you are both town.

mastina

, who do u think vfps partner would be?

gamma emerald, something_smart, vfp <- scums within these, maybe possibly ssbm_kyouko could be, but that seems unlikely to me.

smoke

, who do u think?

imaginality

, who do u think?
(anyone else is welcome to answer as well)

I still think something_smart would be the more likely to flip scum, but im fine with vfp as well.

If VFP is scum I could see Gamma or Something_Smart as a possible partner. Based on their reading VFP as town and Gamma's voting for presumed VFP scum partners rather than VFP directly.

Ssbm seems less likely

[imaginality]

Whichever it is, I expect scum to push hard to elim me today (or jailkeeper and/or doc if they claim and aren't scum), since another no-kill night would give us an extra mis-elim.

Hello Gamma, why are you voting me?

I greatly dislike how the wagon shifted to CB over you

Which part of that specifically? VFP voting CB, marci voting CB, or S&M unvoting me?

[imaginality]

VOTE: Something_Smart

I see more ways SS could be scum buddies with someone else remaining than I do for VFP. And marci's read on me was stellar and she thinks SS is the more likely scum between them.

I think ssbm's idea of a popcorn claim makes sense, in particular because it means we know doc and watcher are scum if they don't claim today. But it's going to be a push to get it done today especially if we start with SS who seems to like lurking until closer to deadline...

[imaginality]

1292 did raise my hackles a bit too.
I'm not convinced scum openly buys ninja for 500 on D2 though.

On the flip side I'm still wondering whether we get five town on the D2 VFP wagon if VFP is town. Wagon was {Mastina - Distance - marcistar - Cyrus62 - ssbm_Kyouko} so if you and mastina are town then to my mind it's highly likely ssbm or VFP are scum rather than both town.
Hmm...
VOTE: Unvote

[imaginality]

Also

@mod: your vote counts still say Day 3

[imaginality]

I tracked Kyouku last night, he didn’t go anywhere.

[...]

We really didn’t expect to but clearring you[...]

Again, this may just be me being paranoid but ssbm isn't fully cleared. Could be scum whose scumbuddy submitted the kill attempt.

I know it's less likely that's the case. Random baseline is from your pov there's 5/7 chance ssbm is town, 1/7 chance ssbm is scum who didn't submit the kill, so odds are 1/6 of that, ie 83% chance ssbm is town. Although a bit higher if you think ssbm was likelier than average to be scum e.g. If you thought it's a flip then chances ssbm is town given the inno is 75%. And then again, higher chance if you think it's more than 50% chance ssbm would be the one submitting the NK.

My point is just some of us are wrong about some of our assumptions or reads and I don't want anything to get overlooked.

[imaginality]

Agreed that not watching N2 seems scummy as hell - the same argument applies for why cop (if town) needed to use their shot before godfather appeared.

Also if SS was concerned about being blocked by me, that was more of a risk N3 than N2 but he used his power N3.

Something else: this means if SS is scum, he only has 300 left. For those who think VFP is scum, he only has 300 left too. So if we're right then hopefully a bid of 301 or more is enough to secure Tracker and/or Hitman if we want to win those roles/keep them out of scum's hands.


I'm ready to re-vote Something_Smart. I want to reread on VFP first though because I do see the logic that if VFP's scummy, it's better to eliminate VFP first, SS second. Nighttime here so I'll be back in 7 hours or so. I still think there's value in continuing the popcorn claim also. Since I might be asleep when it's on me, and mine is mostly pretty obvious already:

D1: bid 410 on 1-shot roleblocker, won it, haven't used it yet
D2: bid 90 on 1-shot auction detective, didn't win it
D3: bid 90 on 2-shot ninja, didn't win it
D4: bid 90 on 1-shot neighbourizer

[imaginality]

OK so I think the mastina scum deliberately no-killing theory doesn't hold up. A bit too risky and I don't think mastina needed to take the risk.

So mastina town.
Ssbm I think is likely town because daykill has been pushed back and now is unavailable to scum, and buying hitman openly D1 needed him for future auctions.
Ssbm not being killed suggests to me scum may have been coin/PR hunting and know ssbm isn't a threat on either front.

If ssbm is town his push towards VFP D1 wasn't scum trying to deflect from Kitty. So VFP scum is more possible.

I think it was easy for marci if scum to town read me to get creds for a town flip, but I don't think it's as likely as marci town.

S&M everyone seems sure is town because of Kitty wagon.

VFP, Something_Smart, Gamma.
I can see how VFP scum would want me around as a future mis elim.

I think if VFP is scum it proves his D2 wagon was town as I think scum bussing D2 is too risky for them, auction wise. Conversely VFP town helps narrow down who's scum. (Per ssbm's count, the E-1 wagon on VFP day 2 had cyrus, distance, S&M, mastina, marcistar)

I think there's at most one scum among {VFP, S&M, mastina, marcistar}. Which leaves at least one among {ssbm, Something_Smart, Gamma}

So VFP isn't scum I think Something_Smart and Gamma are. And if VFP is scum I think one or the other of them is.

[imaginality]

I just realized there are worlds where scum!S&M can buy both ADs, thirdscum can be just about anyone and

they

can still afford 200 for tracker, then S&M can announce the tracker result and appear to be town that bought 1-shot AD and Tracker. I dont think this happened, but it could have. So I realize voting based on bids doesnt really make sense. Any scum could be mixing and matching claims to make things appear differently to town trying to solve by numbers.

this is an outright lie


1-shot Auction Detective 300
2-shot Auction Detective 450
Tracker is 200

total is 950

scum start with 800 so its impossible for me to buy both ADs and Tracker

VOTE: Kyouko

Isn't the bolded referring to your hypothetical scumbuddy, not you?

[imaginality]

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

[imaginality]

SS are you claiming that as a tracker result or a watcher result?

[imaginality]

That’s definitely fake
But who’s the partner

Why does SS lie? You flip town, he’s next and no bus drivers or redirectors were available to bid on.

it's mylo today
so a fake guilty is what scum would want to try to pull off

How is it Mylo? And sorry but I don’t see why SS would lie here?

It's melo because we're down to 6 right?

S&M, marci, me, Gamma, SS, ssbm

If we elim wrong today, scum successfully NK ( they have hitman presumably so I can't block them, nor can a hypothetical town doc) and we're down to 4 players tomorrow and can't out-majority scum.

There is

only one scenario

we win if that's the case: both remaining townies are present at daystart and slam votes onto the same scum player before scum can both slam votes onto a townie. In that case we'd win the tiebreak at day end. Not impossible but not something we can take for granted either.

[imaginality]

@S&M re your reason for believing SS's guilty: That gets wifomy though doesn't it?
SS wouldn't fake a guilty on someone he didn't scum read
So a guilty on someone he didn't scum read would have extra town cred
So scum SS would have reason to do that.

And it doesn't change the fact that today is mis-elim and all-but-lose.

I'm not saying the guilty isn't plausible but I want to question and analyse more rather than just assume.

[imaginality]

I think town!mastina debunks that though but still I think we are in mlimlo so can we not rush this? I think now that auctions are done it's majority lim, not plurality.

I asked the mod in my PT and it's still day-end plurality today.

I like that you worried about this though - reads town.

[imaginality]

No matter what we elim S_S or Gamma today. I saw Marci suggest she feels better about limming me but there is 50-50 shot at scum in there

Agreed, and there could even be both scum in there if SS is bussing.

@town

if we elim wrong today be ready to slam votes on the other one at start of day tomorrow

[imaginality]

On a different note, the 301 bid for hitman. I think there are two possible scenarios:

1. Gamma is scum and bid that much, and other scum has 300 or less remaining (otherwise I think they'd bid higher) and Gamma either didn't notice that people would notice the 499+301=800 or thought a "scum are framing me" excuse would work
2. Gamma is town and scum bid 301 to likely win it while framing Gamma

[imaginality]

Why would we vote anyone other than the one who’s guiltied?

Why didn’t scum!SS guilty Kyouku then? He wasn’t even sr Gamma?

1. Because if we vote wrong today we lose so we have to make sure we vote right not just auto-believe a claim!

2. Maybe thought more town would believe a Gamma guilty than an ssbm one?

[imaginality]

I do lean towards believing SS, btw. I just hate the assumptions being made. Even S&M's assumption mastina's flip

confirms

marci as town is wrong (though I townread her anyway)

[imaginality]

You bid 499 on GF correct?

So how does rb affect SS’ result?

yes

I'm talking about rb because I'm hoping they can block the scum NK tonight

If you flip town, scum use their hitman power.
What's your view on who won the hitman power if not you?

[imaginality]

Even if cop's not dead, as per my early game reasoning they absolutely shouldn't have waited this long to claim their result so I would not believe any cop claim now.

From the alive players, the bids I know of:
Imaginality: won 1-shot RB for 410, won 1-shot neighourizer 90, total 500
Ssbm: won 1-shot hitman for 426
S&M: won 1-shot AD 300, won 200, total 500
Gamma: won GF 499
Something_Smart: won 2-shot watcher 500
marcistar: won 2-shot gravedigger 225

The only players who could have won the 301 hitman are:
ssbm, marci, Gamma

So if Gamma flips town, and we manage to cram votes on Something_Smart tomorrow so we don't insta-lose, the other scum is either ssbm or marci

That said, I do think most likely it's Gamma + someone. And agree Gamma's vote should already be on Something_Smart.

The main doubt I have is why would scum not hide the watcher bid D3 and the hitman bid D4, if they weren't using them to frame Gamma?

[imaginality]

It's fine to look for the scum buddy but why you think anyone is voiting anyone outside of {you, Something_Smart} today I have no idea. That seems like a complete waste of a vote.

[imaginality]

The hides are indeed confusing but to me it looks like scum don't really know how to use it effectively, given how they didn't hide on two of the days and hid JK but didn't even win it.

My first instinct is that this points away from ssbm being scum, but it seems like imaginality is also good enough at mechanics, so it could just be them WIFOMing that they're bad at it.

I don't think there are any combinations of two scum left in the game where

neither

of them would notice the 499+301. If certain other players were still in the game, maybe, but as it is it just seems too dumb.

So for me that comes down to is it a frame, or an attempt to make it look like a frame?

[imaginality]

Why does S&M fake a soft inno on you in that scenario?

[imaginality]

Honestly I feel like the unredacted 500 watcher bid D2, the unredacted 301 hitman bid D4, and the watcher guilty on Gamma today, is just too convenient. I don't think Gamma scum sets things up like that. S&M's attempt to shut off debate at the start of today also rubs me wrong but that might be wrong town.

VOTE: Something_Smart

[imaginality]

Like this scenario of watcher fake claiming a guilty was what I predicted in my PT last night. I was half expecting it to be on me though...

I think if town have watcher scum would have tried to NK watcher first rather than tracker. A watcher guilty is damning if they only saw one person visit. A tracker guilty could be passed off as PR use.

Ah you say, but Gamma has Godfather so he couldn't visit. True. So why would scum Gamma submit the NK when the scum buddy could do it?

[imaginality]

I've been right on every elimination wagon so far (on Kitty, off cyrus, only on Cupcake to save myself, off VFP) and I back myself to be right about this one too.

[imaginality]

I can see Gamma + ssbm if Gamma flips scum, but can also see SS + ssbm

[imaginality]

I think the point is, if you are scum, you could be partners with someone else who got the 1-shot AD. I confirmed I bid 90, it doesn't mean it confirms you were the AD rather than your scum buddy.
It seems like an unnecessary risk to do this unless scum also won watcher (otherwise watcher could have seen it wasn't you who visited me). But ssbm is correct that it's technically possible.

[imaginality]

I think the point is, if you are scum, you could be partners with someone else who got the 1-shot AD. I confirmed I bid 90, it doesn't mean it confirms you were the AD rather than your scum buddy.
It seems like an unnecessary risk to do this unless scum also won watcher (otherwise watcher could have seen it wasn't you who visited me). But ssbm is correct that it's technically possible.

You make some really good points and then there's stuff like this. Why would scum want 1-shot AD? To appear town by getting a PR and using it in a townlike way
Why would scum!anyone even want the 1 shot AD? That would be like the stupidest scum ever.

[imaginality]

I think the point is, if you are scum, you could be partners with someone else who got the 1-shot AD. I confirmed I bid 90, it doesn't mean it confirms you were the AD rather than your scum buddy.
It seems like an unnecessary risk to do this unless scum also won watcher (otherwise watcher could have seen it wasn't you who visited me). But ssbm is correct that it's technically possible.

Why would scum!anyone even want the 1 shot AD? That would be like the stupidest scum ever.

You make some really good points and then there's stuff like this. Why would scum want 1-shot AD? To appear town by getting a PR and using it in a townlike way.

[imaginality]

Quick End

I don't think anything is changing now and if Gamma flips town, this is a better time of day for me to be available to slam a vote on SS at day start (if I'm not NKed).

If Gamma does flip scum I'll roleblock Something_Smart, who seems the least likely to have hitman.

[imaginality]

The mod confirmed to me my roleblock fails if it's used on someone who's using hitman. I mentioned this earlier in the game at some point

[imaginality]

Well done marci!

Pretty happy with my play this game, I was on the right side of the end of day wagons (Kitty, cyrus, VFP, I only voted CB to preserve myself, and was only off Gamma because I was on Something Smart) and I picked up the watcher fake claim (noted it to myself as a possibility in my QT) even before it was made. Annoyed I didn't figure out the PR swapping though.
Scum definitely used the TvT action well, even if it didn't get them all the way.

[imaginality]

I didn't particularly buy the cop inno theory, part of why I neighourized marci was because I was like 80% sure she was town but I was getting paranoid and wanted to dispel any lingering doubts (which it pretty quickly did). And then once I was sure she was town there was no point raising questions about the cop inno theory.