MT 2219: The Battle of Calculasia - Endgame

[MURDERCAT]

VOTE: Titus

Hey everyone

[MURDERCAT]

Just a note, I am going to be moving in ~5 days so I will be VLA around that time. That plus the activity rules means I'm probably going to limit my posting more than usual at the start of the game to protect my sanity, but then I should be around more.

[MURDERCAT]

He's my brother.

[MURDERCAT]

VOTE: Jake The Wolfie

Let's do something, this game is starting kind of slow

[MURDERCAT]

vote for jake, it'll be cool

[MURDERCAT]

That seems like not a good thing to say before someone claims it but ok

[MURDERCAT]

VOTE: xlos

Goofball is town and I will sheep

[MURDERCAT]

by the way if we could end days with a prime number of pages that would be very great thank you

Is this the post you're talking about?

Yeah
Like somehow this got ignored but T3's post didn't
Makes me feel weird in a way

I tend to not want to elaborate on claim related things

[MURDERCAT]

MurderCat, do you know me Mafia-wise?

We were in TM together, right?

[MURDERCAT]

Goofball, nom, T3, and Toog all feel townie to me at the moment

Slight pings from Titus, xlos, and slimer

[MURDERCAT]

Yeah, but have you seen me play in other games?

I don't believe so, TM is all I remember

[MURDERCAT]

Yeah, but have you seen me play in other games?

I don't believe so, TM is all I remember

Why did you ask this, out of curiosity?

[MURDERCAT]

Backup Moderator: Umlaut

lol?

Almost is on the scum pings list

[MURDERCAT]

VOTE: Almost50

Actually feel good enough to do this

[MURDERCAT]

("First three posters of any given game contain 1 scum 80% of the time" rule)

Any random group of 3 players is more likely than not to have at least one scum

[MURDERCAT]

I'm saying that that rule isn't likely to be meaningful compared to picking any 3 players at random

[MURDERCAT]

(I feel the same way about your rule, sorry Titus)

[MURDERCAT]

I'm saying it's probably confirmation bias

[MURDERCAT]

lol he's the one who omgused me

[MURDERCAT]

I'm not backing off because I think choosing the first three people who posted is a really easy way to fake reads

[MURDERCAT]

(Town would have backed off once they realized why I put Umlaut on the list by mistake)

I'm not backing off because I think choosing the first three people who posted is a really easy way to fake reads

Where in here is it implied that's why I originally voted you?

I voted you because your first statement sounded like you were trying to make fake content. If you weren't I think you were more likely to explain the reasoning for your claim. The fact that you didn't bother to check if umlaut had posted anything while trying make it seem like your reads were based on content when referring to nom made it worse.

[MURDERCAT]

Can you quote town games where you invoked the rule?

[MURDERCAT]

Did you post in the games about the rule is my question

[MURDERCAT]

Because a quick ctrl+F shows that the only place you mentioned it that I found was in a game where you were scum: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12670363

(one of the links was wrong I think)

So I'm curious if you mention it as town

[MURDERCAT]

Also I'm not saying your rule doesn't work, I'm saying it works with any 3 players and isn't useful for that reason

[MURDERCAT]

fair enough

[MURDERCAT]

You aren't doing the right math

[MURDERCAT]

It is now!

I will do the math in a bit, but it's mostly academic and not really game relevant

[MURDERCAT]

I am only doing this for theme reasons, feel free to ignore

Spoiler: statistics

You have a hypothesis that “[The f]irst three posters of any given game contain 1 scum 80% of the time.” We will compare this to the expected amount given 3 random players instead.

Because we are sampling 3 players from the list without replacement, we need to use the hypergeometric distribution. The hypergeometric distribution tells us the number of successes k (here defined as the observed number of nontown players) given two parameters: N (the population size) and K (the total number of nontown players). Using this distribution, we can determine the expected number of nontown players in a random selection of 3 players and compare to what you have observed with the first 3 players to post.

The problem with this approach is that we can only use games with 3 scum and 13 total players. Alternatively, we could use the binomial distribution (which assumes sampling with replacement) but given the small populations we are dealing with I don’t expect that to be particularly accurate. Besides, this situation is the most comparable to our game.

Let’s calculate the expected number of scum in a random group of 3 players. We can do this is R with the following command

Code: Select all

dhyper(1, 3, 10, 3)

to get a value of 0.4720 but there is a simple intuition behind this. There are 3 ways to get a single scum player in a group of 3 players, we can either pick a scum player with only our first draw, second draw, or third draw. Intuitively, you might sense that these are equally likely scenarios, but we will prove that in a second. First, let’s calculate the odds of getting scum on only the first draw. In our setup, that’s 3/13 * 10/12 * 9/11 which is equal to ~0.1573. The odds of getting scum on only the second draw are 10/13 * 3/12 * 9/11 which is also equal to ~0.1573. If you look closely, you’ll see that it’s the same numbers in both expressions. So, our odds of having exactly 1 scum in a random group of 3 is equal to 3 * ~0.1573 which equals 0.4719 (this is equal to the above, there is just a rounding error).

We now have the expected odds of having scum in the first 3 posts

if and only if

the first 3 players are randomly selected. You claim that it’s not random however and the odds of there being a single scum in that group is higher. Let’s look at the data now to see if that holds. The games you provided all have a differing number of players and scum, so I’m pulling 13p games myself.

Here are the games that I found (for convenience I only looked at opens) and the number of scum who were in the first 3 posters:

• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=84282 (1)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=83417 (1)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=83235 (1)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=83553 (0)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=82564 (0)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=82037 (1)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=81655 (2)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=81049 (1)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=78009 (1)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=78448 (1)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=77755 (0)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=77349 (0)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=75972 (0)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=75812 (2)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=76359 (1)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=75428 (0)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=75460 (0)
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=74622 (0)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=74559 (0)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=73781 (2)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=73388 (1)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=73693 (1)
  
• https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=72485 (2)

This leaves us with:
0: 9 (39%)
1: 10 (43%)
2: 4 (17%)

So compare our 43% versus our expected value of 47%. Pretty close! That took a really long time so I’m not going to bother to do the hypothesis test right now, but I might do that later. Also there might be mistakes related to failing to find replacements or things, so feel free to check my work.

[MURDERCAT]

Wow I spend 2 hours trying to teach you all stats and you try to kill me I see how it is

[MURDERCAT]

There is no way this wagon on me is real, these votes are awful and trying to run me up to a claim is terrible

[MURDERCAT]

[quote="In post 216, Almost50"][/quote]

There was a VC by the time I even checked in?

[MURDERCAT]

I think T3 should put his vote back on MC. I don't believe this "rigid face" reaction from him. I think it's more likely to come from Scum who knew they weren't hammered.

This is what I meant to quote

[MURDERCAT]

I'm not claiming unless there is intent, one of the votes on me is pure RVS ffs

People really find this townie?

You didn't respond to me disproving your whole theory by the way

[MURDERCAT]

Day 1 has a minimum deadline of three (3) days.

I'd also like to point out that you literally can't hammer me

[MURDERCAT]

MC was hammered. I just pmed the mod. They forgot my vote.

Did you have a post deleted Titus? Or why did you think you were voting me?

[MURDERCAT]

Gotcha

[MURDERCAT]

If you want to argue against the rule; do a research on your own games and come back to me with something like "Well, here are my last 7 games and scum posted in the 1st 3 in only 2 of them"

You say this, I do it, and now you don't want to engage about it?

[MURDERCAT]

I went to the completed open games page and opened all of them on the first page and took every game with 13 players with 3 mafia.
There were a couple that had to be removed for e.g. being abandoned and not easily being able to tell who the scum are but other than that there was no cherry picking at all.

[MURDERCAT]

you have some empirical evidence that it's one of the first 3 posters

Please see where I spend a page disproving the entire concept that this is meaningful

[MURDERCAT]

Why the OPEN games?

Because it's very easy for me to figure out the number of mafia

[MURDERCAT]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=84282 (1)
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=83417 (1)
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=83235 (1)
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=83553 (0)
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=82564 (0)
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=82037 (1)
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=81655 (2)
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=81049 (1)
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=78009 (1)
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=78448 (1)

You should look more closely, all of these games were included.

Do you all really think this is a good faith effort to engage with me??

[MURDERCAT]

Ah I see, you are the one that is just cherry picking off my list now

[MURDERCAT]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=77755 (0)
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=77349 (0)
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=75972 (0)
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=75812 (2)
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=76359 (1)
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=75428 (0)
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=75460 (0)
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=74622 (0)
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=74559 (0)

I'm sure it's just a coincide you decided that the cutoff should be right before these games

[MURDERCAT]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=86462 (1)
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=86088 (0)
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=84671 (0)
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=84622 (0)

Here's the games from 2021

I do not have enough 13p games specifically, it's not a size I tend to play often

[MURDERCAT]

VLA tomorrow until Thursday

[MURDERCAT]

Please check your pronouns usage xlos

[MURDERCAT]

Right now I don't know who else to vote for.

Almost?

[MURDERCAT]

Xlos you can't still be null on both almost and myself. How many scum do you think there are in the two of us?

[MURDERCAT]

These are xlos's reads:

{Jake}
{Toog, nom}
{Wheme, Almost, MC, Italiano/Gardon}
{Goofball, Flea, Titus}
{T3}

Feels bottom heavy

[MURDERCAT]

Assuming this is true, why? Why does this feel bottom heavy?

Having only a single town read is weak when 75% of the game is town

[MURDERCAT]

Do you think that everyone below me on their readlist is either null or scummy?

There were two lean towns as well, but that still feels bottom heavy. Scum has an incentive to have a lot of scum reads because they have more flexibility on where to push. I'm not scum reading xlos at the moment, but it's worth forcing them to take positions regardless

[MURDERCAT]

I was trying to get xlos to take a position on a major interaction of the game so far. I wanted xlos to say whether he thought it was TvT, TvS, or SvS if he didn't want to commit to which of us was scum, for example.

[MURDERCAT]

Because I'm trying to find scum?

[MURDERCAT]

I feel like that little content is NAI for flea, fae posts as scum. I agree that the iso isn't particularly compelling, but I'm pretty sure the vote on me was just RVS

[MURDERCAT]

VOTE: Flea

I'm not convinced about Flea/Xlos but I want to see where the wagons go

[MURDERCAT]

UNVOTE:


I want to give flea a chance to post

[MURDERCAT]

Oh that was definitely not E-1?

[MURDERCAT]

You aren't even the biggest wagon, please catchup

pedit: uhh you aren't the sole biggest wagon

[MURDERCAT]

You are at E-3, I don't know what Titus was talking about

[MURDERCAT]

I honestly don't want to waste the effort if my lim is happening either way.

It's not, we just want you to post stuff

[MURDERCAT]

VOTE: DrippingGoofball

this isn't a great vote I don't think

[MURDERCAT]

Have you played with DGB?

[MURDERCAT]

Well anyway I think it's just a playstyle thing, but DGB can be hard to read at times

[MURDERCAT]

Xlos, please check your pronoun usage, it is getting a big egregious

[MURDERCAT]

I think if I were to try to hero solve this would be my team:

{Almost50, theslimer3, Galron}

[MURDERCAT]

Anyone want to try this?

VOTE: theslimer3

[MURDERCAT]

It's fairly consistent with Jake's town meta that I am familiar with tbh

[MURDERCAT]

I have just played one game with (town) Jake to my knowledge: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... B%5D=33104

I don't have a good read on scum Jake but I think the fluff is NAI at the moment.

[MURDERCAT]

Are we really gunna wait until flea flips town to criticize that vote?

[MURDERCAT]

GG

Thanks for modding Ircher