MT 2219: The Battle of Calculasia - Endgame

[Xlos]

Since this is MT 2219, it only makes sense to choose a person whose index in the player list is an output of the function a(n), where a(n) is the number of partitions of 2n that can be obtained by adding together two (not necessarily distinct) partitions of n. Of the 3 options, I'll have to
VOTE: Flea The Magician

[Xlos]

Wait, that wasn't an option... VOTE: Galron

[Xlos]

Spoiler: spoilered image

die ircher
VOTE: Ircher

I'm not sure about this one. Without giving any spoilers, its odd. Every clock in the game should read exactly 3:33 except for one person's. What does that even mean?

VOTE: Xlos

Do I know you?? Introduce yourself at once!

I haven't ever played a game with you, so you probably don't know me. Rest assured I am an experienced expert in mafia with ⩾1 games under my belt. And this game will be even easier than most games. We simply need to ask a problem similar to the Monty Hall problem, where your intuition gives the wrong answer.
(You have 3 doors, behind exactly one is treasure. You pick one at random, then a random door that you didn't pick is opened and it's revealed there is no treasure behind it. What's the chance you get the treasure if you stay with the door you picked?)
Then anyone who gets the answer wrong is an intuitionist. This trick works on essentially everybody ;p

I would like everyone to detail their relationship with math, your answers will be considered alignment-indicative.

Just got a bachelors degree in it 2 months ago.

[Xlos]

I would like everyone to detail their relationship with math, your answers will be considered alignment-indicative.

I'm a high school student who does competitive math and got a 9 on the AIME.

Big brain

Anyways, let's get down to business with this game. Let's remember where we are:

The land is divided into three main kingdoms by a fast-flowing river: Analysha, Geom, and Algebrea. In the center lies the capital of Calculasia, Rigoria, and it is a neutral land belonging to none of the three kingdoms.

And the current situation.

"Wait! There's thirteen of us though there should only be ten!" one of you shout. Indeed, this is the case: for each kingdom sends three representatives, the capital sends another, and a eleventh is chosen from all the lands to serve as the Chief Councillor.

This implies that, of the town players, we've got 3 from the math fields of analysis (calculus), 3 from subjects relating to geometry, and 3 from subjects relating to algebra. Now, there's no way of knowing if this is accurate, but it's not like we have anything else to talk about. So, my question is, which of the kingdoms do you hail from? If this gives away your role somehow, then you don't have to answer this question. But I personally can't see any way that the fact that I'm from

Analysha

would give away useful information.

[Xlos]

(55) So, my question is, which of the kingdoms do you hail from? If this gives away your role somehow, then you don't have to answer this question. But I personally can't see any way that the fact that I'm from

Analysha

would give away useful information.

Are we ignoring this then?

[Xlos]

also dgb's point is not good, scums are given fakeclaims and there's a sample town rolecard as well in the OP so this is not a good push
I'm more interested about how the game started with these weird flavor posts though, this is a weird rvs

Town read, I don't think mafia would point this out since it completely undermines Goofball's reasoning against me. And we're still in rvs cause math is kind of entertaining to talk about

@DGB: AGAIN, how I interpreted his post was "I

presume

the mod decided to do so and so, although it is not explicitly mentioned in the PM". I thought that might be some kind of role fishing, so I ignored it. He didn't say that

it is

mentioned in the Role PM though, as then he wouldn't have needed to explain it in details the way he did.

My guess is the scum team got one role from each of the "presumed" categories, and Xlos thus assumed one PR and one VT from each (or something like that) so it still would have benefited Scum to know that kind of info to plan their pushes and NKs.

Right, it's not in the role PM, but my role is a technique in analysis, so I assume that all roles are techniques in analysis, algebra or geometry. From this, you can deduce your role location. I was actually thinking that the scum team would have random 'guessing' techniques that weren't from these categories, like using OEIS (https://oeis.org/A002219) to figure out what a sequence is given the first few terms. Anyways, in the case you mentioned, it definitely benefits town more than mafia to know about all roles: it gives a really strong deductive power - if one scum is annihilated, then we immediately get a bunch of confirmed town, and scum are basically done for immediately. So if it is true, then town definitely benefits from everyone making this claim. If it's false, we still benefit since we get some information based on where people decide to claim that we can use later. The only case that this is bad for us is if it's false AND there is some role that depends on where you are from. But this seems extremely unlikely - it means that Ircher thought about the locations, made roles and flavor about them, and then made the flavor wrong. So before you guys decide if you want to annihilate me, you should convince yourself that the idea I proposed is actually bad for town. Cause I can't see it.

[Xlos]

Wait... we're suspecting MC because of what, again?

Currently: Bad reaction to my initial push on him. ... MC used my mistake (of counting the Co-mod in my 3 first posters list) and voted me for it.

Ok, sure, you have some empirical evidence that it's one of the first 3 posters, and then pick the only one of the three that's not lurking. And then somehow this becomes a ridiculous bandwagon. I mean maybe this shaky evidence can take you some ways, but this is kinda ridiculous. I have to
VOTE: T3 for sending in what he thought was a hammer vote 'accidentally', though.

[Xlos]

@Xlos: Now please keep me updated as to what you get/deduce from this.

Not much if nobody else responds I do get heavy townvibes from this response, though:

I'd argue that my role pm seems to be more of a law than a thing from somewhere.

I just wouldn't think of saying something like that if I was scum, instead I would probably say either the name of my region, or nothing - I might think:

since everyone else is avoiding the poll I can avoid it too to risk the threat of exposing myself.

This a really wild thing for Toogeloo to say if it's not true. And I don't really think that a law sounds particularly intuitionist. (I guess it could be something like Occam's razor, but again, why not just lie and pick a category?)

Xlos what the hell did I just read?

I honestly don't understand what's not to get here

you have some empirical evidence that it's one of the first 3 posters

Please see where I spend a page disproving the entire concept that this is meaningful

Yeah, I was just looking at that more. Also I just looked at his evidence 153 more and it's garbage, the first topics I clicked had 4 anti-town. So the empirical evidence is not even good...

@Xlos: Now please keep me updated as to what you get/deduce from this.

[Xlos]

Do the math for THIS sample.

This is a pretty dumb topic, but I'll join for the fun parts

Spoiler:

The expected number of games with no mafia in the first 3 posts is (3 choose 10) / (3 choose 13), so P(at least 1 mafia) is .58.
, your sample has 7/9 mafia.
P(7 mafia) = (7 choose 9) * (P 8 successes) * (P 1 fail) = 36 * (.58)^7 * (.42)^2 = .141
P(8 mafia) = (8 choose 9) * (P 8 successes) * (P 1 fail) = 9 * (.58)^8 * (.42) = .048
P(9 mafia) = (9 choose 9) * (P 8 successes) * (P 1 fail) = (.58)^9 = .007
P(7 or more mafia) = .197 (about 20%)

If we're going to debate over who to kill based on statistics, T3 has been mafia in 100% of the games that I've played.

[Xlos]

Guess I'll post reads. Please interact with me.

Toogeloo: Town lean. I mentioned in 251.

nomnomnom: Town lean. Posts seem fine. Though I guess there's one thing that seems a bit weird to me, in 26 he says something good will happen if we end on a prime number of pages and follows up with 87 indicating that it's serious. It seems fake to me though: if that was really his role, then wouldn't Ircher have been more specific about it? I mean, do days end when the hammer happens, or after the discussion? @nomnomnom please elaborate on this. I'm also not sure how much believe that a role with that kind of requirement would exist for some reasons that I will not mention. In any case, I think it's worth listening to, and ending days at the right time.

WhemeStar: Null. Please explain 189.

Almost50: Null. At first he had a fairly strong town lean, he's at least trying to make something happen. Then 224 seems way too early, I hadn't even looked at the thread in the time between when the wagon started and when it dissolved. And lots of the votes on that wagon were clearly not trying to make a hammer happen, such as 173 33

MURDERCAT: Totally null, he just defends himself with math, it's meaningless to me. I guess the fact that he got so many votes so fast puts him more town, but I don't see much that makes me want to put him there despite the deluge of posts.
\
DrippingGoofball: Somewhat scum lean, he's been really quiet and his vote is on me, and it hasn't moved since his logic got undermined.

Flea: Scum lean, he hasn't contributed anything. And he was on that last wagon, which doesn't mean that much, especially since he was so early

T3: scum. Actually I felt like his posts were clean, but that whole accidental not a hammer situation is not something I'm going to ignore. Especially with the "pedit: Hammer?" part of the post. Uhhh

[Xlos]

Ok I hit tab and then my post submitted mid edit... I didn't think I pushed enter afterwards but I must have, since my last post has a \ where my cursor was. And correct pronouns.

Anyways.

ItalianoVD: 2 posts so far = super null.

JakeTheWolfie: Probably town. Pretending to want to be lynched is kinda scary to do as scum since your team has some expectations of you. I'm not sure why anysuspects MurderKitty, though. Any seems to get to the point where he believes the 'first 3 posters' rule, then it kind of reads that he suspects MurderKitty because of it. But, uh, there are 2 other posters in the first 3 posters. They are simply not mentioned.

Titus: Null. Maybe a bit scummy? I feel like mafia built that wagon and she was on it + voted me earlier.

I think that's all 12 other people.

[Xlos]

And I don't mind your forgetting me in your reads list, but yeah, I did notice the pronoun thing with DGB just because I noticed it at the beginning of the game; I'm not really into pronoun policing. I don't really get your read on Titus. That mafia may have built that wagon is one thing, but you're taking an illogical leap, conflating her being on it and her voting you for her being mafia and then really the only reason you think she's mafia is because she voted you especially when you just got done saying that Flea being on the wagon didn't mean that much wrt being mafia. It's a bit circular.

Flea got on the wagon during RVS phase, while Titus... uh... wait a second. Apparently she never voted for MURDERCAT. I thought it was a later vote, and now I'm confused. She even said she voted for him, but I don't see it in her iso, so I'm pretty confused.

MC was hammered. I just pmed the mod. They forgot my vote.

Titus, any comments on that?

Anyways, it seems to me that you're crafting this vote with some pretty shaky reasoning. You call my logic illogical, but isn't it true that a mafia member is (slightly) more likely to vote a townie than a townie is? And, given that a wagon was made by the mafia, isn't it true that the people on it are more likely to be scum than the ones off of it? I agree that it's a weak reason, but that's why I gave a slight scum lean instead of a big one. Does anyone else feel like this post from Galron is a little off? It might just be me reacting to being FOSed, so I can't really trust myself on this one.

VOTE: xlos
That readslist just comes from scum.
The concern about my role post reads super fake and I'm unsure why it was brought up this late.
I also find it super dodgy that xlos would take into account that post and yet not take into account T3's post which is a much more direct claim.

I thought your post was a joke until I noticed the follow up, which I didn't do until I looked through your ISO. It's really not obvious what you're talking about in 87 since you don't provide a hyperlink to a post 60 posts back.

I avoid talking about T3's post since I don't want to dig deep into roles/claims in general. On the other hand, you explicitly stated that you want your claim to be talked about. Also, would you mind answering the question? It kind of seems that you aren't really that invested in ending the day on a prime number of pages.

[Xlos]

It kind of seems that you aren't really that invested in ending the day on a prime number of pages.

Why would you say that?

Because I was asking how we could help you achieve that goal, and you didn't respond to that question.

@Xlos, Are you literally asking me to agree with your scumlean on me based solely on the fact I voted you? Get out with that noise.

My comment on 218 is in 219.

I don't really expect you to agree, I'm just posting my thoughts. I don't want to just say "null", better to add an extra comment. But you are null, anyways.

[Xlos]

Because I was asking how we could help you achieve that goal, and you didn't respond to that question.

Where?
I would have noticed someone engaging with my post if that happened.
I just checked your ISO and I don't see it.

Okay, I believe you on that. See the below quote:

nomnomnom: Town lean. Posts seem fine. Though I guess there's one thing that seems a bit weird to me, in 26 he says something good will happen if we end on a prime number of pages and follows up with 87 indicating that it's serious. It seems fake to me though: if that was really his role, then wouldn't Ircher have been more specific about it?

I mean, do days end when the hammer happens, or after the discussion?

@nomnomnom please elaborate on this. I'm also not sure how much believe that a role with that kind of requirement would exist for some reasons that I will not mention. In any case, I think it's worth listening to, and ending days at the right time.

---

These are xlos's reads:

{Jake}
{Toog, nom}
{Wheme, Almost, MC, Italiano/Gardon}
{Goofball, Flea, Titus}
{T3}

Feels bottom heavy

Yeah, when I write 'scum lean' here, I'm considering a 50/50 a priori chance of being scum. While this isn't really true, it helps create more discernable categories. I also think that the lack of posts has lead to me feeling more negative about people in general.

[Xlos]

Xlos you can't still be null on both almost and myself. How many scum do you think there are in the two of us?

Most likely scenario I think that both of you are town. Originally I thought that Almost50 just wanted to stir up some action and targeted you basically at random, but then there were signs later on that he was serious about it. And a lot more people joined him on that trip that I would have expected. I think scum hopping on a town-created wagon makes the most sense, but I really have no idea.

You reacted pretty reasonably to the targeting, and part of the reason it's hard for me to get reads here is because a decent amount of the argument was just black and white statistics. The only possible scummy thing would be if Almost was faking the data, but I really doubt that anyone would do that, and it doesn't seem that unreasonable anyways (see: 20% chance of it happening by coincidence).

[Xlos]

Xlos that was when you posted your readslist, I was expecting you to point you engaging with it beforehand, and it still doesn't explain why you don't engage with T3's claim. And as you pointed you, you're only engaging with it "because I asked to"?
This just feels like scumposting to me.

I don't really understand the first part of your first sentence, can you say it again? I think there's a grammar mistake. From what I gather, you're mad that I asked the question in the readslist and not before. But you posted ignoring the question after I wrote the readlist, so I don't see why this would matter. And you're continuing to not answer the question.

I don't think you got my point in my last post either, since it should answer these concerns. I'm not sure if T3's claim is something we should be engaging in. Generally, if someone makes a weak roleclaim or indicator of their role, I don't talk about it. It may lead to giving mafia info they don't need to know. T3 said what he wanted to say about his role, and I'm not going to press him for more unless there's a real need. So the only way I'll want to talk about it is if there's an indicator that it's ok to talk about, and the only person that can give that indicator is the person who knows what the role is. In your case, you said that we could talk about it. And thus we should talk about it. But now that I'm trying to start a discussion on it, you're ignoring it, which is not the reaction that I would expect from someone genuinely interested in getting the requirement of a prime number of pages fulfilled.

[Xlos]

Xlos that was when you posted your readslist, I was expecting you to point you engaging with it beforehand, and it still doesn't explain why you don't engage with T3's claim. And as you pointed you, you're only engaging with it "because I asked to"?
This just feels like scumposting to me.

I don't really understand the first part of your first sentence, can you say it again? I think there's a grammar mistake. From what I gather, you're mad that I asked the question in the readslist and not before. But you posted ignoring the question after I wrote the readlist, so I don't see why this would matter. And you're continuing to not answer the question.

I don't think you got my point in my last post either, since it should answer these concerns. I'm not sure if T3's claim is something we should be engaging in. Generally, if someone makes a weak roleclaim or indicator of their role, I don't talk about it. It may lead to giving mafia info they don't need to know. T3 said what he wanted to say about his role, and I'm not going to press him for more unless there's a real need. So the only way I'll want to talk about it is if there's an indicator that it's ok to talk about, and the only person that can give that indicator is the person who knows what the role is. In your case, you said that we could talk about it. And thus we should talk about it. But now that I'm trying to start a discussion on it, you're ignoring it, which is not the reaction that I would expect from someone genuinely interested in getting the requirement of a prime number of pages fulfilled.

I don't know how to really formulate this so I'll try my best.
The tl;dr is fhat I feel you're engaging me solely for the purpose of looking like you're discussing with people.
If you don't value claims like that and if you think discussing claims at all benefits scum, then why are you discussing this with me at all?
Do you see my point?

I don't see your point. I'm trying to engage with everybody, not just you. That was the point of the read list. You can interpret that as you like. I don't really know how to explain why I want to discuss it any better than I have the these last posts. If you don't want to talk about it, then just say so, we don't have to talk about your claim. If you do want to talk about it, then stop avoiding the question.

[Xlos]

Watching Flea be lazy is pretty depressing to me. He just gave up immediately :/ Normally I would think this is a town read but

The posts about refusing to try if fae are going to be eliminated actually feels more scum aligned with faer AtE play than their town meta.

convinces me otherwise.

---

I do agree that

Flea feels like a lazy vote to me, are we really going to vote that slot when there's more things to explore this game already?

but if Flea is too lazy to even defend himself then I'm very happy multiplying him by the annihilator and sending him to nothingness. If you know what I mean. I'm really mindmelding with T3 right now, so his posts feel pretty townie for that reason. Except I still think he's the best choice to annihilate today. 100% of the time I've seen someone claim to have hammered on accident, that person flipped as scum later. And my sample size is MASSIVE (N=1). Ok, maybe not. So @all: How often have you guys seen someone claim to
accidentally hammer town and then flip town/scum?

[Xlos]

Xlos, please check your pronoun usage, it is getting a big egregious

Sorry, it's challenging to form a mental map from the wide variety of faceless character strings to identity terms. It's not something I've done on other forums, but I'll spend some time trying to make the map more defined now...

I'm doubling the annihilator LOL

At least I've only messed up the other thing once so far this game ;p annihilator is a fun substitute because math https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annihilator_(ring_theory)

[Xlos]

Intent to Hammer Flea if they get to E-1

Cut your bullshit out, or it will cost you your life.

I don't think we should hammer until Flea claims

Flea ain't claimed shit other than I'm not reading 9 pages and formulating opinions because I was already flavour of the day. I am not using my catchups as get out of jail free cards because effort does not show alignment and people seem to think it does.

T3 joins the shitlist.

Irrespective of if effort shows alignment, effort is the way by which we can deduce anything. I don't think you should sign up for a game if you're not intending to try.

Also I want to bring this following post up again. I don't understand why nobody is talking about T3.

100% of the time I've seen someone claim to have hammered on accident, that person flipped as scum later. And my sample size is MASSIVE (N=1). Ok, maybe not. So @all: How often have you guys seen someone claim to
accidentally hammer town and then flip town/scum?

[Xlos]

Jake seems too cautious.

Isn't their 'intent to hammer' the most aggressive post out of all of them? It's saying "not only do I want to eliminate you, I want to wait for someone else to vote for you when you're only at E-2 and then annihilate you with my free vote.' What do you mean by too cautious?

VOTE: Flea the Magician
Not townreading the guy who hard defends you, the super scummy possible limbait player.
Play the game

Why should I?

Guy hard defending me like that is suspicious af. I've contributed very little to this, and find myself flavour of the day after a weekend. Soft defending, fine. Hard defending? Questionable.

Agree with this, this is a bad vote from T3. Another bad vote is from DG. Actually, it's posts don't have any reasoning inside of them, which I really don't like. Idk how scummy/normal it's posts usually are, but posts like

MURDERCAT town, Xlos scum.

Jake is town.

mean nothing to me. And that's the majority of their iso. There isn't much there at all, except for their logic in trying to annihilate me.

So I'm pretty curious why a post like this has appeared:

VOTE: Flea

DGB is town.

Seems like a pretty strong claim, and again there is no reasoning so I don't know where Galron's getting the idea. And it's such a naked vote with no logic behind it, I have to FoS him.

[Xlos]

I ain't gonna go far with only one scumgame from Jake :/
thinking of quickhammering this because page number but that might be hasty

I'm not against this if your role defines the end of the day to be the time that the last hammer vote was made, but if it's the last post before the thread locks then you should wait since midnight will add some more posts. I think Flea's refusal to post means that even if they are town, they're just a real number. ~pedit: ok hope it was the first one

[Xlos]

I ain't gonna go far with only one scumgame from Jake :/
thinking of quickhammering this because page number but that might be hasty

I'm not against this if your role defines the end of the day to be the time that the last hammer vote was made, but if it's the last post before the thread locks then you should wait since midnight will add some more posts. I think Flea's refusal to post means that even if they are town, they're just a real number. ~pedit: ok hope it was the first one

Typo, *refusal to claim

Deadlines

This phase will end no later than Saturday, July 10, 2021 9:45 PM EDT or in (expired on 2021-07-10 21:45:00).
This phase will end no earlier than Monday, June 28, 2021 9:45:00 PM EDT or in (expired on 2021-06-28 21:45:00).

Also I'm not sure what you're getting at flea, the early deadline has already passed.

[Xlos]

Flea The Magician 33
nomnomnom 31
Titus 27
Xlos 22
Toogeloo 18
DrippingGoofball 16
WhemeStar 15
Galron 12
theslimer3 10



Just wanna point this out when you say I'm not efforting.


PEDIT: Oh and that's 100% hammer, well following my established post hammer meta, I am VT. Good job.

To be clear, you're the one who kept saying that you weren't willing to put in effort, and we were just listening.

[Xlos]

Alright, today has been much more exciting! Here are my thoughts. I will say the first one with high confidence.
1. Exactly one of DBG and nomnomnom are town. DBG is really going in for the kill here, it's unimaginable that they are both scum. Why can't they both be town? Well, think about it. If they are both town, then the sheer number of coincidences that need to have happened to get to this point is far too high. nomnomnom just so happened to be a miller, and DBG just so happened to be the (one-shot) cop, and DBG just so happened to investigate the miller day 1? This is really unlikely. Even given that one of them is telling the truth, both sides have very unlikely stories.

For those who believe nom's claim, explain why the mod would put in a miller when our cop only gets one shot?
(This is a discredit btw)

Your question also supports this conclusion.

Now for the next thought.
2. The one which is scum is DBG. Firstly, just in terms of post vibe, nomnomnom is more believable than DBG to me. DBG is pushing very hard for an early hammer, on the basis of nomnomnom having done an early hammer.
Secondly, and much more importantly, the cop claim is fake. Let's look at it:

The reason is that the claim.

So, yeah, I am a one-shot cop, no point hiding it since I am vanilla now.

I investigated and obviously got a guilty.

The first reason this appears fake: If true, there is no point in hiding this claim. And yet, he waits a very long time to do so. With no breadcrumbs beforehand.

The second reason this appears fake: It's incredibly convenient. DBG writes this claim very shortly after nomnomnom claims miller. I.E. it comes right after confirmation that this claim is ok to make appears. If DBG is scum, it's just found a way to claim a role without any risk, push his wagon against nomnomnom even harder, and not have any responsibilities later with having claimed cop.

The third reason this appears fake: DBG has no positive reaction to nomnomnom claiming miller. Either you believe the claim or you don't, this claim means that he has no reason to be more aggressive than anyone else. The miller claim comes before the cop claim, so it should have some doubt. Why is DBG still pushing hard for an early hammer at this point? Before I can even wake up and say my opinion? He appears to want to silence the other opinions quickly.

So for these reasons, I think that we should

VOTE: DrippingGoofball

But I'm also fine with killing someone else. I don't think killing nomnomnom now is a great move, since they have to power to confirm themselves with their friendly neighbor ability. Remember, they were blocked by town. Who cares that the cop is dead? nomnomnom can literally just confirm their role tomorrow provided there isn't a scum roleblocker. Votes on nomnomnom today are just useless

Now another thing I find interesting is how much people are chasing nomnomnom pre-miller claim. Yes, he hammered town, but T3 did the exact same thing in a situation that was way worse (The Flea wagon was more justified and much later in the day than the MURDERCAT wagon, hammering was reasonable).


So I do feel pretty suspicious of those early votes by WhemeStar, Almost50, Galron, and Titus. They say "I'll sheep" but

what are they even sheeping???

Literally just a naked vote with "DIE SCUM DIE" written above it. Uhhhhh

I also wanna briefly consider the information from MURDERCAT's doom. There are basically two reasons to NK him in particular: 1) He was close to conftown or 2) His suspicions were too close to the target. It's probably not 1, considering that MURDERCAT came right off of a full wagon, and I think that the only positive post others made about him was DG's 294 (small town points, definitely doesn't come close to balancing the above, though). I mean, most people feel sus to me though so maybe it was 1. In any case, 2) must have been a factor at least in part.

I think if I were to try to hero solve this would be my team:

{Almost50, theslimer3, Galron}

There's at least 1 scum in these 3. Not that knowing this is that helpful, 1 in 3 aren't the best odds. But there might be 2. IMO Galron is the most suspicious followed by Almost50, and theslimer seems fairly town to me.

Edit: Vote changed for VCer.
~Ircher

[Xlos]

Well aktually i'm an informed miller and I got in-fo' that there's only 1 1-shot cawp

This, was satire.

and also poking fun at T3

Alright I remember thinking that this post was a joke, but I forgot that you also claimed that there's a 1 shot cop in it. That's reason 4 that DB's claim is suspicious AF

[Xlos]

Well I honestly hope you're eliminated because I don't think you're town, your reason was just sooo baaaad.

Well, no, I'm not town.

In fact, I am a 3rd party.

I cannot die, even by a modkill performed by a player.

If Oicher, our lord and saviour, decides to modkill me, then I'll die.

Sorry I got mixed up with this post, ignore the last thing I said. Jake's post was after the claims occured.

[Xlos]

Ok after thinking about it some more, isn't it best to just postpone DG and nomnomnom for tomorrow? We simply end the day on a prime number of pages today, let nomnomnom attempt to send out a message, and if someone can confirm them, we can end the issue easily. So it's up to nomnomnom to choose a player that won't be NKed + is probably town. Since the mafia probably wants to kill Toogeloo tonight, it's got a high enough chance of succeeding if nomnomnom's claim is true, so we can choose which of them to annihilate. The odds will be in our favor.

UNVOTE: DrippingGoofball

For people who want to antihate nomnomnom today, why not wait until tomorrow? I'll be on board provided that the friendly neighbor fails.

I'll think more about who to place a vote on tomorrow. I feel like some of the votes against Jake are just people not understanding that he is joking in most of his posts, but I haven't really looked into it.

[Xlos]

let nomnomnom attempt to send out a message, and if someone can confirm them

So they can claim being roleblocked again, or have their buddy pretend they got confirmation?

So, if they're town, this is just a strictly good play, since we get a chance to turn a high-sus player into a confirmed town and get free confirmation that you're scummy.
No matter what their alignment is, situation 1 isn't going to happen, since the claim was that we have a town roleblocker, who isn't going to block again.
If their buddy pretends that they get confirmation, we've successfully tied two members of the scumteam together. If we flip you and you flip town, we can then get 2 free mafia annihilations the successive days for the cost of 1 town annihilation.

[Xlos]

let nomnomnom attempt to send out a message, and if someone can confirm them

So they can claim being roleblocked again, or have their buddy pretend they got confirmation?

So, if they're town, this is just a strictly good play, since we get a chance to turn a high-sus player into a confirmed town and get free confirmation that you're scummy.
No matter what their alignment is, situation 1 isn't going to happen, since the claim was that we have a town roleblocker, who isn't going to block again.
If their buddy pretends that they get confirmation, we've successfully tied two members of the scumteam together. If we flip you and you flip town, we can then get 2 free mafia annihilations the successive days for the cost of 1 town annihilation.

The problem with this route is it requires assuming scum don't have a roleblocker. It gives scum nomnomnom one more night to use whatever ability he does have. It forces the entire town to play around that possibility when a miller in a game with a one shot cop is scummy.

Second, there's no reason why he couldn't claim miller when he hammered if he knew that shit was scummy. A miller claim deters roleblocks and nightkills as it's rarely combined with something else.

I kind of doubt that both town and scum have a roleblocker (or poogoloo is lying). I mean, since town has a doctor + weak cop + weak roleblocker it's not that unlikely. But if they do have a roleblocker and nomnomnom is town, the only loss is that we miselim tommorrow rather than today. Though the other risk you've pointed out is very real; if nomnomnom is a scum power role then we're giving them another day of power. So if you feel really, really strongly that nomnomnom is scum with a power role, then it does make sense to annihilate them today. So the risk is like this (assuming DGB and nomnomnom are opposite roles)

nomnomnom town -> extra annihilation for today + DGB conf scum + conf town (+++)
nomnomnom town & scum RB -> must annihilate tomorrow instead of today, scum RB must use power on nomnomnom (-+)

1) If nomnomnom is scum, then scum will not pretend to receive the message
nomnomnom scum power -> Scum uses power 1 night and is annihilated a day late (--) nomnomnom scum -> scum annihilated a day late (-)
2) If nomnomnom is scum, then scum will pretend to receive the message, but we get nomnomnom and his buddy after flipping DGB.
nomnomnom scum power -> Scum uses power 2 nights, we miselim on DGB, we get 2 free conf scum. (---++) nomnomnom scum -> Same but scum doesn't get to use their power for 2 nights. (-++)

Generally, nomnomnom being town is very very good, and them being scum is bad but not that bad. Since I'm leaning towards DGB being scum, waiting for more information is the best play. If you think the chance of nomnomnom being scum is

much

more than the chance of DGB being scum, then it makes sense to go for them. But otherwise, no annihilation is the best option.

[Xlos]

High level thoughts based on reading so far:
(In order by playlist because mobile please ignore extra symbols hard to remove them on mobile)
Xlos+
>> A(n) in your intro post is arbitrarily defined. I am happy you also share a bachelor’s in math like me. However I am not a fan of your posting. Assume for a moment that the distribution is as suggested and there is a scum in each of the kingdoms. Would we then just arbitrarily eliminate one? Flavor tends to be just flavor if/until demonstrated otherwise.

Initial reads seem to suffer from the too many town reads problem. Overall feels very scummy. Also not a fan of their suggestion from nomnom. I think there’s a major flaw in it and I think saying what is antitown but will do so if prompted.

A(n) is OEIS 2219, I gave it away in 106 but you're likely to miss it if you just reread very quickly.

Since this is MT 2219, it only makes sense to choose a person whose index in the player list is an output of the function a(n), where a(n) is the number of partitions of 2n that can be obtained by adding together two (not necessarily distinct) partitions of n. Of the 3 options, I'll have to
VOTE: Flea The Magician

Most of the reason for the kingdoms post was to get discussion, I wasn't too convinced of the theory myself. ATP we know it's not true since everyone is analysis. But if it were true then it would've been pretty good (imagine that at some point in the game 2/3rds of a kingdom have been annihilated, we now know the last alignment). If you look at the thread at that point of the day, we had been sitting in RVS for a long time and no interesting discussions were going on.

[Xlos]

This game is hilariously depressing.
The depressing fact really isn't that I'm gotta get limmed, it really is the scolding I'll receive when I do flip and then I'm going to get blamed for not doing something they deem optimal and get blamed for this loss when this game ends cuz I don't see us recovering after this.
Deadass probably even more depressing than that one micro i lost for town, I guess I'm just bad.
VOTE: nom just hammer me and get this over with.

Uhhh... I don't know what to think about this. I guess I will be predictable and scold you. In my opinion, putting yourself at E-1 and asking to get hammered is not optimal play.

[Xlos]

That being said I think nom putting themselves at e-1 and not hammering is kinda meant to cut off discussion. I think scum hate what I am doing.

Intent to hammer after lunch

If you think this is a move by scum to cut off discussion, why are you trying to help them? I don't approve of hammering.

[Xlos]

really this game is a disaster and I'm going to get limmed because I got shafted with what I was trying to do and people straight up don't believe me, so the only thing I have left is to expose scums here for later days
come on, be the lucky guy that hammers me, I dare you

What are your current reads?

[Xlos]

Math, I want to actually see how your reads reset supposing no one counters DGB.

I want to be able to parse the relationships in detail because there are relationships here.

No one countering DGB isn’t enough for me.

It has to towntell for me to remove it from possibility. In Yellowstone

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12446609

It used the exact same font style. If it quacks like a duck walks like a duck and acts like a duck it’s probably a duck. So the more DGB doesn’t do their town tell the more I think it’s scum.

I also understand it’s unhealthy and depends on Nom being scum.
I also understand that blah blah is bad to say and leads me to think DGB is lying about being a cop but also Nom is probably scum.

So I don’t see the value in prolonging the day when DGB isn’t even trying.

Wait, I thought you were suspicious of nomnomnom. But you're saying if he flips guilty, then you suspect DBG. Do you actually think that both nomnomnom and DGB are scum? The earlier interaction just doesn't make any sense in that situation. Basically it means scum looked at D2 and said "I think we should make one of us die today, and we should do it by faking these improbable roles"

[Xlos]

Yes. That’s the world I am in yes. If you look at the game linked Yellowstone DGB did the exact same thing with AGamblingPig.
If you look at the second link, with DGB and Muffin DGB said they investigated Muffin and then muffin coasted to end game.

That’s always been my point and I think DGB is a liar. Nom’s is implausible and so is DGB if we take T3 at face value and I think we should.

I just read some of the scumthread in that game cause the game is long, the discussion summarized in

We could also do this:

I roleblock AGP
JV claims 1 shot vig on whoever we NK and claims the scumkill didn't go through
I claim to have RB'd AGP
We sacrifice AGP
We are conftown until end game.

(AGP is other scum member here) So I can agree with the idea that DGB has plotted something involving a mass scum roleclaim. I still think both scum are unlikely, but I can see where you are coming from. But, if you really want to flip both of them, doesn't it make more sense to flip DGB first? If you believe they are both scum, then the power role seems more likely to be DGB. nomnomnom has the earlier 'hammer me' posts, and the post positioning gives DGB a better position. The main reason I personally suspect DGB more is the late claim and scummier vibe. Furthermore, nomnomnom's claim of friendly neighbor means that every day we wait, we can become much more certain of his true alignment. I am kind of down to annihilate DGB today. Killing a friendly neighbor claim as soon as we hear it just seems nonsensical. Why am I the only one who thinks this?

Well, if the wagon goes that way, I'll jump on. But I think that scumhunting outside of the pair is still fine since waiting a day gives us much better odds for flipping either of them.
Most recently, I'm getting big pings from Almost50. "Let's all claim now since half of us have already claimed our roles? And let's start with the people who we already know are power roles? 754" That's a incredibly scummy idea. It's like "town has already messed up a little, so let's go all the way". Especially with the amount of doubt I have on some of the roles that have been claimed. Also, looking at Almost50's iso, he's been on both the MURDERCAT and Flea wagon. He was the push behind MURDERCAT, and he was pretty absurdly confident in a nonsense probability argument. (probability is not the most rigorous subfield of mathematics). He doesn't have that many posts, but every post he does have is somewhat scummy.

Other people on both wagons:
Titus (didn't actually vote for MC, but thought she did in 218). I think their ISO is fairly clean, though.
Toogeloo (I'm feeling town on them for now)
nomnomnom (very scummy but again waiting to annihilate them is the best move)
T3 (his votes are really scummy, E-1 for flea and fake hammer for MURDERCAT. Text is convincing, though)

I think that's all of them. Besides this the only major negative feeling I had was on Galron, but reading his ISO didn't feel that bad for some reason. So I think the best wagon is here
VOTE: Almost50

[Xlos]

I've been skimming over the wall posts btw. You guys need to be bit more concise. My eyes tend to glaze over posts more than a paragraph long.

Yeah, I'm not really interested in reading an essay every 5 minutes just to play this game.

It's not bad that you guys are wallposting, it's just that (maybe a majority?) of us here aren't particularly interested in wallposts, and will usually skip over any of the points made in there. It's fine to post wallposts as a reference for the future, but not as a regular post.

/psa

Noted. Here is a TL;DR: Don't kill the person who claims friendly neighbor without giving them a chance to confirm themselves + risk/reward analysis for why.

Anyways, I misread at first and thought A50 wanted full claims rather than just flavor claims. But ​I'm not planning on claiming flavor, I don't think that we should.
If Ircher includes a role that makes the flavor good for town to know, then there's probably a role that makes flavor good for scum to know. And I don't believe this claim

Now that I got this out of the way, I will explain for the very last time: I am informed that "a specific something" is the flavor of "a specific someone". I don't want to say whose flavor I am informed of because that tips that specific someone to say the truth about their flavor and tips everyone else that they can lie about theirs.

My info is in the form of "you know that <player name>'s flavor is <specific flavor>."

I'm pretty certain that scum flavor will be distinguishable from town flavor. So if it's true, you don't really have much reason to do this big claim, you already know their alignment, and you're risking making everyone claim for nothing.

Maybe you are scum, and your info is of the form
"you know that <player flavor>'s power is <specific power>."
Or maybe you are scum, and you just want to see how people react to get info about their roles.

[Xlos]

@Xlos, why doesn't the argument you make against A50 apply to you seeking if people were algebra geometry or calculus?

A50 has a role that gives reason to believe role flavor impacts the game, I dont.
A50 is asking for specific role flavor, I was asking for something weaker.
Since peoples roles are all calculus based, anyone claiming not analysis would have been scumtelling. Otherwise no info is leaked.

[Xlos]

@Xlos, why doesn't the argument you make against A50 apply to you seeking if people were algebra geometry or calculus?

A50 has a role that gives reason to believe role flavor impacts the game, I dont.
A50 is asking for specific role flavor, I was asking for something weaker.
Since peoples roles are all calculus based, anyone claiming not analysis would have been scumtelling. Otherwise no info is leaked.

[Xlos]

Don't kill the person who claims friendly neighbor without giving them a chance to confirm themselves + risk/reward analysis for why.

They'll "confirm" to their buddy or claim roleblock.

676690
Are you really going to question the TL;DR and ignore the answer I already gave? You should've at least read 676.

I think claiming flavor is really dumb

And how do you feel about the fact that A50 made us do it for no reason?

I feel like I should point out 792 again. A50's claimed role is 100% a lie.

[Xlos]

@Xlos, why doesn't the argument you make against A50 apply to you seeking if people were algebra geometry or calculus?

A50 has a role that gives reason to believe role flavor impacts the game, I dont.
A50 is asking for specific role flavor, I was asking for something weaker.
Since peoples roles are all calculus based, anyone claiming not analysis would have been scumtelling. Otherwise no info is leaked.

I don't understand this. Are all roles calculus based? You're talking role flavor right? Other than the derivitaves I have no idea (because calculus). I mean the color mentions algebra, geometry and calculus. And what does it mean that "anyone claiming not analysis would have been scumtelling?" What is not analysis? Does that mean not problem solving? Like someone would have to be Pythagorean Thoerem but not Set Theory?

Some terminology: anything that is calculus is analysis. Analysis is also a bit more, I might even say that "real number" falls into analysis, though it's also algebra. I'm basing analysis as things covered by Spivak's textbook on analysis. Things that are algebra and not analysis could be abstract algebra (Group/Ring Theory) or linear algebra (matricies/vectors). Things that are geometry are not analysis. Lots of other math is not analysis (topology, number theory, statistics).

Every role flavor claimed so far has definitely been analysis, plus A50 said their flavor was "calculus". So it stands to reason that all roles are from analysis, so if someone had claimed to have a geometry role, it would be very suspicious, and I would have treated it as a scumtell.

[Xlos]

Come on guys A50 is suspicious from every angle. Leader of a bad wagon, sitter on the other bad wagon, role fishing, and lying about their role. A50 is even MURDERCAT's dying scumlist.

I think if I were to try to hero solve this would be my team:

{Almost50, theslimer3 (now mathblade), Galron}

What exactly is stopping you from voting him?

[Xlos]

I don't see why they both can't be town. Queue DGB. But I don't think that's what Titus's point was.

What makes you say their lying about their role?

I am pretty sure they’re a neighbor. That seems an odd thing to lie about? Unless you mean lying about the informed bit which is unfalsifiable. If no one matches the flavor A50 expects then A50 just says so player X is scum and a 1v1 forms. Or if someone matches the flavor then A50 says “player X matches the flavor” or maybe not even that. There’s no way to check him. So since there’s no way to check it no way to know if he is lying and this bs about flavor shouldn’t even have started today with all the open claims.

If he was telling the truth, he would know the alignment of that player already based on the flavor. Unless you believe that scum flavor are going to be the names of formal mathematics operations. That wouldn't make any sense though. The fact that he doesn't know the alignment means that he hasn't totally thought through the information his role gave him, and thus it is a lie.

[Xlos]

I got locked right before the day ended but this post

Mod: What page did day 1 end on? Page 19 or page 17?

Page 19.

Wait what
I thought twilight didn't count
jesus

was a big bruh moment for me (recall day 1 where I had like 6 posts discussing with nomnomnom if twilight counted). Also kudos to nomnomnom for successfully tricking me with their last post, seeing the fake jester vote made me very confused until I got the role PM Or maybe I'm lying scum and I was never surprised at all...

---

If he was telling the truth, he would know the alignment of that player already based on the flavor. Unless you believe that scum flavor are going to be the names of formal mathematics operations. That wouldn't make any sense though. The fact that he doesn't know the alignment means that he hasn't totally thought through the information his role gave him, and thus it is a lie.

I am trying my best to not call you names (ex: I am

not

calling you stupid, dumb, obtuse.. or anything of the sort). Listen top you. Like, the mod would give a player what would be effectively "Player X is Scum". Is that what you're suggesting?? Or maybe "Player X is Town, but I decided to head SOUTH from LA to get to San Francisco just fir the funzies).

I was assuming that the scum flavor would be obvious. Like scientific induction, or the monte carlo method. In this case, your role would be improbable, that's why I was claiming that you were lying about your role.

2: Flea The Magician,

Euler's Method

(Vanilla Councillor of Calculasia), faded into obscurity Day 1.
11: MURDERCAT,

Limits

(Councillor of Calculasia Doctor), collapsed from a lack of rigor Night 1.
13: nomnomnom,

Derivatives

(Intuitionist Jack of All Trades (Flavor Cop, Doctor)), faded into obscurity Day 2.
8: T3, the

Second Derivative Test

(Councillor of Calculasia Even Night Modified Rolecop), collapsed from a lack of rigor Night 2.

Of this, if all this is analysis like xlos was talking about, then what distingueshes the green flavor from the red flavor?

It would seem that my assumption was wrong, though. Flavor is hard to distinguish.

[Xlos]

Flavors obviously have some meaning.

Why?

Look at nomnomnom's role PM. This gives some more town credit to the people who were trying not to have a mass flavorclaim (wheme and mathblade) and more scum credit to those in favor (A50 and DG). For now, I still think A50 is the most suspicious all together.

VOTE: Almost50

[Xlos]

Look at nomnomnom's role PM. This gives some more town credit to the people who were trying not to have a mass flavorclaim (wheme and mathblade) and more scum credit to those in favor (A50 and DG). For now, I still think A50 is the most suspicious all together.

VOTE: Almost50

This feels disingenuous given yesterday and d1.

I'm not sure what you mean? Was it disingenuous when I voted him yesterday, then? The only information change since then has been the flip + my night action, if it exists. Unless I'm missing something.

Xlos is like "I was wrong about why I SR'd A50, but I'm still going to vote him anyway."

There are other reasons to scum read you besides your role claim. See 861 for my reasoning. Do you have a more suspicious player in mind? As far as I've analyzed, you are still the worst. I need to look into T3's flip more later but I need to sleep today.

[Xlos]

Is Toog...

• a town roleblocker
  who happened to
  block a player who claimed to be a conditional PR
  ?
  
• scum (any role or goon)
  who
  pretended
  to have blocked nom to give credence to nom's claim of having been roleblocked?

I don't think it's the second option because I don't think scum cared that much about saving nomnomnom much. He was doomed - as soon as he claimed friendly neighbor, he was guaranteed to die at some point in the next few days.

And I didn't feel that there was that much support for postponing the nomnomnom annihilation. (As the only person pushing for it, it would have been reassuring) Most of the reason it took so long is cause people were willing to give time for discussion first. Nomnomnom was even trying to get himself hammered. Scum would need to risk sticking their neck out just to use nomnomnom's power the next night, and it wasn't really that great of a power (scum doctor?). I wouldn't be that surprised if all 3 scum were on that wagon.

The friendly neighbor claim doesn't really make any sense to me though.

I do agree that other things Toog did are scummy because of their strange night actions that they still haven't explained and what you mentioned in 1033. But IMO the second option in your list doesn't make sense.

A50 and Xlos deserve further consideration. ... Xlos was seeking categories which made a flavor check easier.

The categories couldn't have made a flavor check easier, see below.

@Xlos, why doesn't the argument you make against A50 apply to you seeking if people were algebra geometry or calculus?

A50 has a role that gives reason to believe role flavor impacts the game, I dont.
A50 is asking for specific role flavor, I was asking for something weaker.
Since peoples roles are all calculus based, anyone claiming not analysis would have been scumtelling. Otherwise no info is leaked.

I personally think it was a good series of posts D1. Even if there were algebra/geometry people, the categories aren't related to the roles so town loses nothing. Though my gambit was similar to A50's, mine was much safer.

[Xlos]

I don't think it's the second option because I don't think scum cared that much about saving nomnomnom much. He was doomed - as soon as he claimed friendly neighbor, he was guaranteed to die at some point in the next few days.

Why was Nom so hard to eliminate if scum weren't trying to swing it elsewhere? Like you were.

For me, it's easy to say there was little resistance because I was the main person providing resistance. So from my perspective scum seems to have done a lot less. Also, postponing the annihilation on nom is not that unreasonable of a move IMO, so I think some resistance is to be expected. But I think that town had basically decided by 699, after that,

Most of the reason it took so long is cause people were willing to give time for discussion first.

Surely you can at least agree that scum had given up by 696? Maybe you can get some reads from before that point.

[Xlos]

I do agree that other things Toog did are scummy because of their strange night actions that they still haven't explained and what you mentioned in 1033.

I have explained both my night actions. As for DGBs 1033, well, that's not something I can explain, I guess.

How could you leave me to crawl through your ISO for 1073 and 940

You feeling suspicious of nomnomnom entering N1 as you indicated in post 940 seems inconsistent with your early D2 posts which, iirc, had a more favorable/neutral position on their alignment.

[Xlos]

I do agree that other things Toog did are scummy because of their strange night actions that they still haven't explained and what you mentioned in 1033.

I have explained both my night actions. As for DGBs 1033, well, that's not something I can explain, I guess.

But if I am @E-1 and I'm online I will self-hammer, so Scum can rest-assured I am still self-voting in spirit

My inexperience is really showing, I have no clue why people are self-hammering. Even Flea's posts 322 were pretty close to that...

Well, I guess I can join the jester style competition.

Evil Things Xlos has done/tried to do:
1) Voting Flea
2) Moving towards giving nomnomnom an extra day to use their power.
3) Being inconsistent about wanting flavor
4) Being generally suspicious
Annihilate them now!
VOTE: Xlos
I think that's all for the list, though.

But enough jokes.
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Almost50
2 is a pretty crazy move for scum to do. Purposively, getting an extra day to use nomnomnom's power is valuable enough that I'm willing to sacrifice a good chunk of my reputation. And I think I've debunked 3 on the last page. So it just doesn't seem like that great of an elim to me.

I'm wondering if nomnomnom self hammering was an indication that scum didn't want an alternative scum to die. Maybe nomnomnom's power was the weakest of the scum. That might make sense, considering the supposed abundance of power roles. Or maybe they were just tired with the day. It definitely feels like a sacrifice from scumside. Plus the fact that DGB is claiming a 1 shot cop, and they claimed that exact role before... I definitely have gotten some of mathblades paranoia while thinking about all of this. I don't think DGB is a good elim now, but it is pretty strange.

[Xlos]

Also FYI for those that plan to vote on me, the second letter in my name is a lowercase L, not a capital i.

[Xlos]

I just want to understand why I'm being scum read. Because all I see is that some people don't believe that I blocked nom, and thought I was trying to save them. Is that the gist of it? No damning evidence, no other associatives, just the refusal to believe that I blocked nom.

The funny thing is that this is the towniest thing about you from my perspective

Xlos, Mathblade are there things equivalent to Tests, Thoerems and Derivatives that I'm missing?

I doubt it. Unless scum got a very detailed flavor->role explanation from Ircher, I think they have info like this

"you know that <player flavor>'s power is <specific power>."

[Xlos]

Xlos, Mathblade are there things equivalent to Tests, Thoerems and Derivatives that I'm missing?

I doubt it. Unless scum got a very detailed flavor->role explanation from Ircher, I think they have info like this

"you know that <player flavor>'s power is <specific power>."

So you think scum were both informed and had a flavor cop?

Hmm, this might not be consistent with my last post, but right now I'm thinking that if there is a pattern with the flavor like A50 was describing, scum has to know about it. They get 3 roles + extra fake claims at the start of the game, so they have a lot of ability to deduce what the correspondence is.

5. While flavor doesn't necessarily correspond to alignment, scum have been offered additional fake claims and the ability to request ones (to match a specific role) during the game.

Since scum can request flavor to match a particular role, if they do spot a pattern then they can confirm it by persistently pinging the mod "give me flavor for this role". I doubt that's part of the setup, so any meaning the flavor does have is known to scum.

And reading this again, I'm realizing that it is really heavily indicating that flavor corresponds to your role. So ignore the post of mine that you quoted, I've changed my opinion on this. I think scum is informed (of what the flavor-role correspondence is) + have a flavor cop. And I don't think it's antitown to talk about it, because scum have the ability to learn it.

[Xlos]

I think most everything is one or two shot. A50's "check" doesn't confirm Wheme as town. DGB is one shot, which leaves it prone to the bussing argument. Toog is unlikely to stop a kill. It follows scum are limited shot as well. We've likely blown our payload.

What’s his check? Sorry must have missed it

See below

@Titus: I

am

using Math theories. nom was "Derivatives" and had a Flavour

Cop

shot. T3 was Second "Derivative" Test and was a Modified Role

cop

. DGB is First "Derivative" Test, and claimed 1-shot Alignment

Cop

. If Flavour is indicative of ROLE (which it is from the Mod's quote I quoted yesterday) then Derivativ(s) = Cop. This should be enough for me to put DGB as an IC already.

Now I am a "Test" and so is Wheme, so I am assuming ... WAIT! Wheme isn't clear by this. He could be "Informed Scum" still. I'll let MATHBLADE decide on it. Wheme is "Root Test".

I'm not even sure what A50's claim is. He seemed to have said something along the lines of being a neighbor with you near the beginning of the game. Do you have any info that would change the probability of A50 being town?

[Xlos]

Personally I would really like to hear a more concrete claim from A50. There's a couple of things that he's claimed so far.

If anything AT ALL I believe I did move the game out of RVS with that post (which was one of my main objectives of posting it). I guess now is the time I should note that I am a Neighbor and that my Neighbor knows this because I had asked them to ask me why those 3 if they were online, but nom did it first anyway. I told my Neighbor specifically that them engaging me on this one should move the game out of RVS, so -at least- I did that regardless of whether my read on MC is correct.

Now that I got this out of the way, I will explain for the very last time: I am informed that "a specific something" is the flavor of "a specific someone". I don't want to say whose flavor I am informed of because that tips that specific someone to say the truth about their flavor and tips everyone else that they can lie about theirs.

My info is in the form of "you know that <player name>'s flavor is <specific flavor>.

I am not looking for a needle in the barn. I know what I'm looking for and know from whom I want it.

I'll give you an offer you can't refuse: Let's do Xlos, and if that doesn't flip red I'll personally see to it that both I and DGB are dead tomorrow.

The second one makes VT impossible, since it inspired a huge flavor push. So if they're town, they are town power, and I don't think there's any reason for town power to claim an additional power, so they're a informed neighbor killing role. Which doesn't really make much sense to me. "informed" and "neighbor" don't go well together, they're both similar types of role. And there are so many powers. Hard to believe that is power role of that caliber is content with exposing themselves D1. It's kind of surprising that scum choose MURDERCAT over A50 considering that first claim.

For those who think A50 isn't scum, what do you think the explanation for these role claims is?

[Xlos]

If you want A50 dead, case him by play. We're sick of your mechanics conclusion. No one agrees with you. Consider the possibility you are wrong and scumhunt elsewhere and scumhunt everywhere by play or stop drowning the thread.

I want to talk to DGB but I feel like I can't.

Math's argument aside, how do you see A50 as town? I mean, considering 1204, what could his role possibly be for him to be town? I'm trying to look at him from a favorable light, but I lack the imagination to see a world where A50 is town, unless you believe all 3 claims. I'm genuinely curious what situation you're thinking of that's causing you to harbor more doubt about Toog than for A50.

[Xlos]

I want a sincere heartfelt apology directed at me from DGB on Day 3 or in the dead thread if I'm yeeted today. I'm just sayin'.

There's a dead thread???

I just want to understand why I'm being scum read. Because all I see is that some people don't believe that I blocked nom, and thought I was trying to save them. Is that the gist of it? No damning evidence, no other associatives, just the refusal to believe that I blocked nom.

Blocking nom, a claimed PR, and Galron? Nah something is wrong.

To be honest I don't see this as impossible. Blocking nom doesn't seem very beneficial for scum at all. If Toog is scum RB, I would imagine that they block someone else. From a town perspective, I definitely agree that nom + Galron are bad choices, since they've both claimed to have some power. But I'm also not that confident that it's better to block someone who seems vanilla. IDK what the best strategy for a town RB is, is it super bad to do that? In any case it seems like pretty feasible behavior especially compared to A50.

[Xlos]

Jake, put your vote somewhere useful. It's too hard to get reads on you when you keep voting yourself. You seem to be following some philosophy of 'only vote if it's hammer' which I don't like. It's like you're trying to hide your reads, which is really scummy.

Also Wheme can you confirm if you have a chat with A50 as your neighbor?

[Xlos]

Xlos, who says that Toog even blocked anything?

Toog says this. I'm saying that there is a feasible world where they are town, so to prove this I assume that they are town and thus not lying about their actions.

[Xlos]

Xlos, who says that Toog even blocked anything?

Toog says this. I'm saying that there is a feasible world where they are town, so to prove this I assume that they are town and thus not lying about their actions.

Why are you giving Toog the benefit of the doubt but not A50. Your A50 argument was starting to make sense, but with this inconsistency, it sounds like picking and choosing. A50 claims this complex role that really doesn't make sense and you're scum reading him, and Toog claims a relatively simple role but looks scummy in the way he claims he played it but you're willing to town read him. What you're saying, using your words, is there's no feasible world where A50 is town. Assuming the conclusion then working whatever it takes to reach that conclusion? I mean assuming that Toog is town is in no way proving that they are. It's like saying that a=4 and your proof is 4=a.

Yes, as I've mentioned before, I cannot see a feasible world where A50 is town. I have been asking if anyone else can see such a feasible world, but nobody has answered me. Titus is just ignoring me ): When I try to assume that A50 is town, I still don't understand his actions. So it's not as if I am only trying to give Toog the benefit of the doubt.

[Xlos]

Titus is just ignoring me ):

What am I ignoring?

If you want A50 dead, case him by play. We're sick of your mechanics conclusion. No one agrees with you. Consider the possibility you are wrong and scumhunt elsewhere and scumhunt everywhere by play or stop drowning the thread.

I want to talk to DGB but I feel like I can't.

Math's argument aside, how do you see A50 as town? I mean, considering 1204, what could his role possibly be for him to be town? I'm trying to look at him from a favorable light, but I lack the imagination to see a world where A50 is town, unless you believe all 3 claims. I'm genuinely curious what situation you're thinking of that's causing you to harbor more doubt about Toog than for A50.

Honestly at this point I feel like everybody's ignoring me, except maybe mathblade. People are accusing me of tunneling A50, and saying he seems innocent. It's like "A50 is innocent because mathblade is wrong." Everybody's looking into mathblade's argument and deconstructing it. Nobody has even made a single post trying to talk to me. So OF COURSE I am tunneling A50. I have

tried

to see them as innocent. I have

tried asking

why other people see them as innocent. I can't see how they are innocent, and nobody is willing to tell me what they think I'm missing. What do you expect of me here? If you think my argument is bad, go and say my argument sucks! If nobody disagrees with my argument, It's just going to make me more sure of it. People are now even saying "I think A50 is innocent" without even addressing anything I've asked!

I literally have shown that there is

no feasible world

where A50 is town. I said, "if my proof is wrong, please say so." In response, I get "XLOS IS TUNNELLING A50 IS TOWN." Probably nobody will not read this post because it is too long and proceed my my elim. So I will make a very short post after this with a summary of my current reasons to suspect them. Basically just repeating 1204, but it seems I'll just get ignored unless I say the same thing several times in increasingly angry tones...

But before I do that I should add another piece of evidence so it doesn't bloat the other post:

So there are Tests, Thoerems and Derivatives. The Derivatives are not AI. I guess there's no reason to expect that the rest of them are either. So all this flavor fishing/hunting whatever was for naught. But why would there be a flavor cop?

Because WHEME IS AN INFORMED SCUMSTER, and he was Informed of someone's FLAVOUR (Just as I was), with ONE MAJOR DIFFERENCE: "flavour" is a "Role"

IF YOU KNOW THAT THEN WHY WERE YOU TRYING TO GET PEOPLE TO FLAVOR CLAIM DAY 2?!?!?!?

[Xlos]

If A50 is telling the truth: They are informed 764 of someone else's flavor and role 1249. They have a day chat with neighbor Wheme 175. And finally, they have a role that can somehow get a kill at the cost of their life. 1043. Despite knowing that flavor is role indicative, they have pushed for a mass flavor claim D2.
If A50 is lying: What are they lying about and why?

Regardless: They have lead the MURDERCAT wagon, been on the Flea wagon, been on MURDERCAT's dying scumlist, pushed a scum-beneficial mass flavor claim, and ignored my requests to clarify their role.

[Xlos]

I’m gonna full claim because a50 already claimed my flavor and basically my role and idc anymore

I’m root test and I’m an informed neighbor. I know A50’s flavor.

I assume his role is basically the same and that he knows my flavor

Do you have a daychat with A50?

[Xlos]

Lol minor nitpick they aren’t even deconstructing my argument Xlos.

They’re going “It’s math he’s wrong it’s too hard or setup speccy let’s move on and assume A50 is town”

You kinda have the math agrees with you curse.

Maybe I should just start lying in games then I get who I scumread elimmed /sarcastic

At least they're acknowledging that your argument exists enough to say that it's wrong

[Xlos]

I’m gonna full claim because a50 already claimed my flavor and basically my role and idc anymore

I’m root test and I’m an informed neighbor. I know A50’s flavor.

I assume his role is basically the same and that he knows my flavor

Do you have a daychat with A50?

It’s a neighborhood so day/night chat

Thanks, I can at least confirm half of the story now. So the only question is if A50 is also a town killing role.
@A50: Since you are a power role, why did you claim so early in D1?
And I also don't understand the mass flavorclaim.

To be honest I think the same logic with nomnomnom could apply here: we could leave A50 alive, wait until tomorrow to see if he can make good on his promise, and if he's still alive, we know he's lying and can kill him them. The only problem is that A50's prereq for this is killing a confirmed town (me). So I can't be down with it. I can accept trying to annihilate me for this reason. Though it would be uncharacteristic of town considering the way this exact 'wait for them to expose themselves' situation went yesterday with nomnomnom. But ok, if you want to vote me for this reason and promise to annihilate A50 if they can't kill themselves in the night, go ahead. But if you're going to say A50 is town lean/null despite everything, please explain yourself.

[Xlos]

This offer:

I'll give you an offer you can't refuse: Let's do Xlos, and if that doesn't flip red I'll personally see to it that both I and DGB are dead tomorrow.

Though, now that I think about it, taking this ultimatum as the only option is dumb. A50 claims that he can kill someone else (at the cost of their own life). Surely the mafia don't have 2 NKs. So one option is to kill someone else today, and then if we don't see A50 dead tomorrow night, then we kill them. At that point you have all the evidence I've compiled + him failing to do something he's claimed.

So here's a counter-ultimatum: Dear A50, irrespective of who we decide to annihilate today, if you aren't dead tomorrow night, then we will kill you tomorrow in the day. If we can agree to those conditions, I might just take my vote off of you. As a member of town, it seems pretty stupid for you to only use your power conditional on me being flipped today. You should want to help regardless, no?

[Xlos]

I mean I have quoted it. Xlos has quoted it.
A50 denies it after claiming it.

Are we in the same game?

It's not hider?

A50 has claimed that it is not hider. I asked him to specify but he ignored that post.

[Xlos]

Now that I got this out of the way, I will explain for the very last time: I am informed that "a specific something" is the flavor of "a specific someone". I don't want to say whose flavor I am informed of because that tips that specific someone to say the truth about their flavor and tips everyone else that they can lie about theirs.

My info is in the form of "you know that <player name>'s flavor is <specific flavor>.

I am not looking for a needle in the barn. I know what I'm looking for and know from whom I want it.

If Wheme is your neighbor, isn't is very reasonable for them assume that you know their flavor, meaning hiding that the person whose flavor you know doesn't do much?

Even excusing this, if you have a separate chat with them, why do you feel the need to push this publicly? You could literally just ask in that thread. Why risk literally everybody's flavor when you have a perfect excuse?

[Xlos]

I am using the term right. A50 is doing so much crazy stuff to avoid dying by a nightkill. Hider and bomber, what do they have in common? They are useless night kills. He's generating a wifom.

Toog is frankly better because DGB has been on fire this game. I trust its judgment more than my own currently. If DGB is ever wrong, I'll move back to being independent. I made a deal too and I intend to keep it unless DGB says self vote.

DGB has swingy games. Sometimes it's in bad player jail. Sometimes it's hot. I'm riding the hot wave.

What motivation does town A50 have to avoid dying by nightkill? He's already admitted being neighbors and he hasn't been using the daychat effectively to get any reads on Wheme. So they are essentially VT. Shouldn't they be trying to get NKed? Furthermore, there's evidence that this game has a vig, so the most likely result of claiming a vig is that the real vig will counter-claim. I don't see how this is a pro-town move at all.

If you didn't have DGB's reads, who would you be voting and why?

[Xlos]

Ah, but this time I really am masons, promise *wink*
More seriously, I'm generally confused about what the fuck is happening in the game. Words are being thrown around, players can't seem to make up their mind, and some players are saying things contradictiong what both themselves and others are saying. I'm not really sure what to think, so I'm staying on the sidelines until my assistance is needed. Cutting off deadweight won't help you kill scum, it'll only keep the game noisy and unreadable.

I want your assistance. Please vote for who you think is scum. I think there is enough info in my iso to give you a very good option, if you aren't sure who to vote.

[Xlos]

Just realized that I misread DGB's post a while ago 1226. I thought it said Galron claimed something D2, but he didn't. So I feel like blocking Galron wasn't that unreasonable. Scum is going to use the least suspicious player to submit the NK, so choosing a random ish player to RB is pretty reasonable. Since blocking nomnomnom is also a good move (they were scum), the argument for Toog seems weaker.

Since Galron was blocked, it would seem that they are a roleblocker (or some member other of scum is). If he is a roleblocker, I kind of doubt he was lying about visiting nomnomnom D1 since scum likely feared a tracker. It's totally possible that they took the risk during the day after seeing the doctor + cop flip, though. I'm not sure that scum wanted to protect nomnomnom at all since their claim fated them to a quick death, but the opinion flip on them is pretty strange.

It's not a bad argument, but the actions seem pretty logical from a town 2-shot RB as well. Contrast to A50, a player who has done even more scummy things and whose actions can't be explained from a town perspective. DGB, did I miss something here?

Also I'm thinking we should count Galron as conftown for getting blocked.

[Xlos]

Also I'm thinking we should count Galron as conftown for getting blocked.

I don't get this with two scum alive.

Seconded. If Toog is scum, then Toog could have easily lied about who he blocked. If Toog is town, then it's less likely Galron did the kill. (Still possible strongman, redirect, busdriver, etc...) I don't think this tells us anything. I think it's more likely Galron is town, but definitely not conf town.

Take the very reasonable assumption that Toog + Galron are not both scum.
If Galron wasn't blocked, why wouldn't he be more suspicious of Toog? Toog admitted to blocking Galron at the very start of the day. Lying right then would be a big risk for scum. I think it's reasonable to assume that Toog did not lie about who he blocked.

Why is it less likely that Galron did the kill? I think that Toog's assessment that Galron is a surprising person to target is correct. If I were scum, I would definitely choose Galron to do the kill over DBG/A50/Mathblade. These are more suspicious characters overall. If we find out that the other scum is in this list, then surely we can put Galron as conftown. I am pretty confident that the other scum is A50.

Just realized that I misread DGB's post a while ago 1226. I thought it said Galron claimed something D2, but he didn't. So I feel like blocking Galron wasn't that unreasonable. Scum is going to use the least suspicious player to submit the NK, so choosing a random ish player to RB is pretty reasonable. Since blocking nomnomnom is also a good move (they were scum), the argument for Toog seems weaker.

Since Galron was blocked, it would seem that they are a roleblocker (or some member other of scum is). If he is a roleblocker, I kind of doubt he was lying about visiting nomnomnom D1 since scum likely feared a tracker. It's totally possible that they took the risk during the day after seeing the doctor + cop flip, though. I'm not sure that scum wanted to protect nomnomnom at all since their claim fated them to a quick death, but the opinion flip on them is pretty strange.

It's not a bad argument, but the actions seem pretty logical from a town 2-shot RB as well. Contrast to A50, a player who has done even more scummy things and whose actions can't be explained from a town perspective. DGB, did I miss something here?

Also I'm thinking we should count Galron as conftown for getting blocked.

"Blocking nom was a good move because nom was scum." Except a Town!toog doesn't know nom was scum, and nom was pretty well town read Day 1, so it's a lucky move, not a good move. Using that as a jumping off point to say that I was blocked "Since Galron was blocked" to further confirm toog as roleblocker (and to confirm me as Town) doesn't make sense. Nor does your statment "or some member other of scum is." I don't follow that at all.

Well, with that mentality, us voting off nomnomnom D2 was a lucky move, not a good move Nobody knows, but you gotta give credit when the guess is correct.

For the second part, I assumed that you were blocked based on what Toog said start of D3. Toog seems to be pretty certain that you were blocked, so either he's town RB or part of a scum team with a RB.

[Xlos]

One of the reasons this game is really hard to read is that I don't townread any of you. All I'm seeing is

red

and

grey

, without much (if at all)

green

.

There is no organization or association to what I'm seeing. Nothing here is making sense.

It's helps me to assume that everyone is town when they talk about other people. Then you don't get lost in a forest of 'what's their motivation for saying this' and can think more deeply about the argument itself.

[Xlos]

3 more votes on Xlos is what we need, folks

Why are you townreading Toog so hard?

[Xlos]

Well, with that mentality, us voting off nomnomnom D2 was a lucky move, not a good move Nobody knows, but you gotta give credit when the guess is correct.

For the second part, I assumed that you were blocked based on what Toog said start of D3. Toog seems to be pretty certain that you were blocked, so either he's town RB or part of a scum team with a RB.

It's not the same thing, and I don't have the words right now to explain it any more than what I did.

With the second thing, toog may have blocked me or may not have, but what makes you think that if he's scum there's a roleblocker on the scum team?

I'm assuming that you were blocked. Toog knows it. I made this assumption because at the time I thought you confirmed it in thread. I looked back and you didn't. But I still think it's a fairly reasonable assumption, since Toog making that claim at the start of D3 is super risky from a scum perspective.

[Xlos]

*Toog knows that you were blocked. (Hence implying they were responsible for the RB)

[Xlos]

3 more votes on Xlos is what we need, folks

Why are you townreading Toog so hard?

Oh, did I not mention I was Informed Toog is Town.

I also got a clear on him twice. I used both my Alignment Cop shots on him. BOTH of them. (and in one go. I might add)

Oh, and let's not forget I'm a Weak Hider, and I also hid behind Toog two nights in a row.

(Let me know if you want me to fake Disloyal FV too)

Man, you really are trying to take refuge in audacity. But plz answer my question. It will help me get reads on Toog.

[Xlos]

This isnt really working. Everyone is too committed to their reads. Ill offer a trade: today I’ll vote Toog if both DGB and Titus vote A50 tomorrow. Assuming that they survive the night. This is fair since math will probably move his vote after I do, and tonight scum can easily kill someone suspicious of A50. So if I can’t get at least 2 promised extra votes on A50 tomorrow its a waste of time.

I dont want to vote Toog, they are pretty close to null for me. But Ill take the risk and trust your reads if you trust mine tomorrow (especially if Im dead). Probably not even that much of a trade since I think A50 will be Vigged in the night.

Pedit: Ill also join the DGB wagon for 2 A50 votes tommorrow.

[Xlos]

You flip me me today and A50 tomorrow, town loses this game. 10%

This typo made me laugh out loud

I'll be sad if I'm wrong about A50, but I'm willing to take the risk here. We might even get a free point for listening to DGB today VOTE: Toogeloo

[Xlos]

Idk should I just hammer

Unless someone has a bargain to strike that might turn this day around, I don't think people are going to be convinced to change their POE any time soon. That said, I am down to bargain. This wagon feels pretty fake - A50 is the only one pushing it hard and Titus is just following for no good reason. It's easy to imagine that either of them are scum who has successfully twisted us into a corner for today.
I'd probably wait a while since hammering is scary, the wagon feels off, and math has some questions out right now. If you don't feel like Toog is genuinely suspicious, then you should hold off for at least a day, maybe try to come up with a plan to move the annhilation.

[Xlos]

<s>I am a scum miller unfriendly neighbor. Every day I have to send one player a message that I am scum if the day ends on a composite page. Luckily for me, every day has ended on a prime page.</s>

[Xlos]

All things considered I'm very happy with tonight's events. My scumteam last night was A50 + {Titus, Jake, DGB}. Now Jake is town and I'm feeling much better about DGB now that their claim isn't 1-shot cop. Plus, between the breadcrumb and the reasoning against mathblade in 1517, I think that the claim is real. Particularly

But then the next day I thought, if MathBlade, is scum, he knows I fakeclaimed 1-shot, figured with the even-night rolecop flipped and the word ODD in my first post, that I was an odd-night cop. And MathBlade!scum would NK me for sure.

This kind of content takes a fairly high amount of meditation on the fact that he is an odd night rolecop to achieve, very towny.

Also the clear on me makes me feel a lot better. Last day phase Toog said something along the lines of "you are terrible town since you're killing me and then A50", but really it's worse than that, since if A50 is scum, in all likelihood I would be next (setting up 3 miselims, a terrifically bad result). Now the worst case is a bit better. But that's the extent of my confidence on him, we shall see if I am terrible town or good town soon (probably). VOTE: Almost50

If this works out we confirm Wheme which puts us in a winning position since I think me, DGB, and Galron are already almost certainly town.

pedit: Hmm turns out you can move your vote onto people by wishing them harm (Titus is on Wheme in the votecount)

[Xlos]

The fact DGB didn’t die and Jake did is odd as fuck. I am trying to figure out if it is scum killing threats or if scum killed Jake for a reason.

*sigh*

That feeling when you can’t pull a Titus correctly.

TBH I thought you were going to die. It worked with all the scumteams I was imagining. I think scum killed Jake power hunting. Since Jake was very strongly against roleclaiming early on, it may have been interpreted as him having a power role. Since Jake didn't really have strong reads, the only other explanation is that scum is not suspected by towncore, and scum (Galron and Wheme? Idk) is happy to watch us multiply each other by elements that result in a product of 0, and we are doomed.

For now I'm going to believe in the first scenario. I will say, I don't think mathblade would kill Jake power hunting, given the basis of his argument yesterday ("town has too much power already!")

[Xlos]

GG, scum had me fooled.