Newbie 2071: The Sandwich Debate - End!

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Oh boy, time to read the game, find the scum team day 1, lead a scum elimination and get shot at night

let's go

[Lady Lambdadelta]

i read a few forum games on here, i think flavor is one of my favorite parts of a forum game. maybe that conversation would be more interesting than whatever 'sand witches' are
my top three sandwiches i'd recommend
1. tuna melt (ingredients of a grilled cheese but slap tuna onto it)
2. my subway order (TOP SECRET, CLASSIFIED, but includes jalapenos and italian, lettuce too i'm willing to give you that)
3. knuckle sandwich (to the two mafia, HockeyFan and The Bulge)
the Fan goes today

VOTE: HockeyFan

Oh wow this is a scummy post.

This person can have a nice slice of increased scum equity.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

And HockeyFan is town from the first page and it's not even close.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

VFP, you can just out as mafia rn instead of doing this, its fine. Also what happend to your No-lim, I thought u no-limd every game(or is it only when you're town?)

meta readers be like 'using my extensive knowledge of your games i see that you only say scrumbly bingus when you are mafia....... what say you?'

Another scum tone read.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

GrandpaMO and Rocky have town equity for their exchange on Page 4.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Sorry, page 3

[Lady Lambdadelta]

oh yeah @mod, on post 1 the game is labelled "pizza"

unless this is some kind of statement you are making

is pizza a sandwich? :OOOO

Dude I'd kill this today in a heartbeat I think, but I'll need to see what's going on in the rest of this.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I'll just explain the intent behind my post 40 shall I?
If scum end up thinking I'm a Power Role from this, voila, there's 1 night without a dead Power Role.
If scum leave me, we have a non-Mason conf-town, always lovely.
Or maybe I'm just scum pulling your leg early.

Kay I'm a fan of possibly sticking this person 6 feet under too tbh.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

oh yeah @mod, on post 1 the game is labelled "pizza"

unless this is some kind of statement you are making

is pizza a sandwich? :OOOO

Dude I'd kill this today in a heartbeat I think, but I'll need to see what's going on in the rest of this.

Are you joking?

No.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I'll just explain the intent behind my post 40 shall I?
If scum end up thinking I'm a Power Role from this, voila, there's 1 night without a dead Power Role.
If scum leave me, we have a non-Mason conf-town, always lovely.
Or maybe I'm just scum pulling your leg early.

Kay I'm a fan of possibly sticking this person 6 feet under too tbh.

That post screams towny to me. Explain.

The reasoning is steeped in scum theatre. I'm less certain about this one than the cows as of so far, but you have to ask yourself.

Why did this person do this, and then instantly turn around and make a grandstand about it? Was the grandstand for the purpose of being towny? or being SEEN as being towny?

Plus the cheeky "maybe I'm scum" line at the end is on average, done more by scum than by town.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I'll just explain the intent behind my post 40 shall I?
If scum end up thinking I'm a Power Role from this, voila, there's 1 night without a dead Power Role.
If scum leave me, we have a non-Mason conf-town, always lovely.
Or maybe I'm just scum pulling your leg early.

Kay I'm a fan of possibly sticking this person 6 feet under too tbh.

That post screams towny to me. Explain.

The reasoning is steeped in scum theatre. I'm less certain about this one than the cows as of so far, but you have to ask yourself.

Why did this person do this, and then instantly turn around and make a grandstand about it? Was the grandstand for the purpose of being towny? or being SEEN as being towny?

Plus the cheeky "maybe I'm scum" line at the end is on average, done more by scum than by town.

Going to have to argue the last 7 words. I've yet to see it done by scum.

I'm old, friend. I've been around the block a little longer, and my sample size is as a result, a lot larger.

It's done more by scum, I'm very confident in that. Doesn't mean town never say it, just means it's a + scum EV from people who do

[Lady Lambdadelta]

And HockeyFan is town from the first page and it's not even close.

first time someone has Tr'd me so quickly

GrandpaMO and Rocky have town equity for their exchange on Page 4.

uh? what part of this interacton is town? Legit all that happend on page 3 is Rocky put a RVS vote on Gpa

The vote was town and the reaction was town.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

And HockeyFan is town from the first page and it's not even close.

first time someone has Tr'd me so quickly

GrandpaMO and Rocky have town equity for their exchange on Page 4.

uh? what part of this interacton is town? Legit all that happend on page 3 is Rocky put a RVS vote on Gpa

The vote was town and the reaction was town.

what? Rocky's first vote of the game is NAI at best. Also how mcuh stock are u putting in this. Do u still TR both slots of rocky/gpa on page 28?

I'm stopped on Page 6 as of right now, doing work. I just replaced in, I'm calling what I see as I read through.

and it's not NAI. Literally stop using things that don't mean what they mean. There is always alignment indication in votes like that, and player reactions to them.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

VOTE: lld
This feels similar to Yggdrasil when LLD was scum in the sense that she's trying to control the game. I disagree with her James read and she's trying to pocket hockey.

I always try and control the game regardless of alignment.

By the way, for the person who was talking about NAI things: This is an example of the proper time to use NAI. When someone is describing a playstyle uniformity.

I'm sure there's some minor differences in how I approach my game control between town and scum but I am also a player who actively changes her meta game to game on purpose so, it's a bit hard to describe I think.

Regardless, this is the proper use for NAI. Controlling a game is not an action done more frequently as scum than town.

Also, I'd call into question how exactly I'm controlling the game when I have yet to place a vote, and am currently catching up. In what way am I controlling a game when I'm not even pushing a wagon yet?

Can you please explain to me? I need to determine your sincerity in making this argument to read you.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Like, to be clear, I was eventually going to push to lead from the front because that's how I play, but as of yet I've not done this.

So what is interesting to me is that you've decided to take this line of attack with me despite me having done nothing that could be considered controlling as of yet this game. All I've done is give reads, explain reads and begin a catchup that I have yet to finish.

So your argument is not only fallicious to begin with, wrt to my desire to lead being scum indicative for me, but it's also feeling very fabricated, because there's simply no example of my posting which contains anything controlling as of yet.

So again, I want to be clear: What parts of my posting are similar to Yggdrasil, and in what way are they? And more to that point, what makes those parts contorlling?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Oh boy, time to read the game, find the scum team day 1, lead a scum elimination and get shot at night

let's go

This is you outright implying it, and the tone of your posts seems authoritative and weird.

It's a newbie game, and I don't play them for a reason. The one and only time I played one, I replaced in, called both scum and got shot night 1 after voting out a scum day 1.

Plus, it's a good vibe to bring into a game.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

VOTE: lld
This feels similar to Yggdrasil when LLD was scum in the sense that she's trying to control the game. I disagree with her James read and she's trying to pocket hockey.

I always try and control the game regardless of alignment.

By the way, for the person who was talking about NAI things: This is an example of the proper time to use NAI. When someone is describing a playstyle uniformity.

I'm sure there's some minor differences in how I approach my game control between town and scum but I am also a player who actively changes her meta game to game on purpose so, it's a bit hard to describe I think.

Regardless, this is the proper use for NAI. Controlling a game is not an action done more frequently as scum than town.

Also, I'd call into question how exactly I'm controlling the game when I have yet to place a vote, and am currently catching up. In what way am I controlling a game when I'm not even pushing a wagon yet?

Can you please explain to me? I need to determine your sincerity in making this argument to read you.

I also don't understand how you could have possibly got a read on Hockey from those first few pages.
UNVOTE: lld
I'll look at your meta.

I just do. I don't require as much evidence for my reads, since I read on tone a lot as well.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

hi lambdadelta! thanks for replacing in. had a busy day so will use this night to give my two cents on what both you and clasko have said. for now have the image above full of quotes picked fresh from the cherry tree

Whether you are scum or not, you're certainly entertaining. I enjoyed that quite a lot.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Why do we have a 2009 and a 2010 in a newbie?

Why do we have a 2009 and a 2010 in a newbie?

they are 1000% percent here to pubstomp after being dormant. that's the only explanation i can accept

SE slots are meant for experienced players to pass along their experience to newbies and aid them in developing their skill.

Additionally, I'm a replace in as a favour to the mod, who is my friend. It can be hard to find SE replacements for a newbie, so.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I'll be doing more catchup tomorrow. Apologies.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I'm here, I thought I had more time. This week has sucked, one sec

[Lady Lambdadelta]

VFP and Hockey are still town

my top desire to kill is James

cow got better, but I'm still suspicious.

T3 is in the range of "I don't mind killing this slot because it'll tell me a lot and their reads don't align remotely with mine"

Rock should still be town I think as well.

I will kill James, then T3, then Cow in that order today, of preference. I will never vote Hockey or VFP today for sure though.

can I have a current votecount?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Vote: James

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Also, I really dont want this James lim but I will vote it if I have to

You're my strongest town read, so if you wanna convince this not to happen it'll need to flow through me anyway.

Why don't you like it?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Also, I really dont want this James lim but I will vote it if I have to

You're my strongest town read, so if you wanna convince this not to happen it'll need to flow through me anyway.

Why don't you like it?

more of the fact that i think town gets mroe info for liming VFP/T3

VFP scum- cows scum
VFP town- probs James scum?
T3 town- Gpa scum
T3 maf- Not sure yet

You're drawing pre-flip conclusions with a lot of things that I'm not hyper sure I agree with, especially without a scum nightkill to look at as well.

We vote the scummiest individual player, and not any chainings.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Also, I really dont want this James lim but I will vote it if I have to

You're my strongest town read, so if you wanna convince this not to happen it'll need to flow through me anyway.

Why don't you like it?

more of the fact that i think town gets mroe info for liming VFP/T3

VFP scum- cows scum
VFP town- probs James scum?
T3 town- Gpa scum
T3 maf- Not sure yet

You're drawing pre-flip conclusions with a lot of things that I'm not hyper sure I agree with, especially without a scum nightkill to look at as well.

We vote the scummiest individual player, and not any chainings.

yea i get that but I just dont see why James is scum

so then why is he town?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Today is the day for a mass claim, btw. We're in a 5:2 situation, and we have 2 confirmed townies we can create, with a possible better outcome depending on roles.

So we need to organize a popcorn claiming list. We pick the scummiest person, and then make them claim, then, they tell someone else to claim, and we go down the list. This way, it makes counter claims a little harder to fake too.

I also think, for the immediate moment in the claim order, you shouldn't claim your ROLE, just whether you are a Vanilla Townie or a Power Role.

If we have any counter claiming, we can use that to try and catch people, but if we don't, we don't reveal what power is where to the scum.

Anyone disagree with this?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Today is the day for a mass claim, btw. We're in a 5:2 situation, and we have 2 confirmed townies we can create, with a possible better outcome depending on roles.

So we need to organize a popcorn claiming list. We pick the scummiest person, and then make them claim, then, they tell someone else to claim, and we go down the list. This way, it makes counter claims a little harder to fake too.

I also think, for the immediate moment in the claim order, you shouldn't claim your ROLE, just whether you are a Vanilla Townie or a Power Role.

If we have any counter claiming, we can use that to try and catch people, but if we don't, we don't reveal what power is where to the scum.

Anyone disagree with this?

I dont hate it, and we should probs do this but maybe mid d2 would be better

Hard disagree.

There's nothing we gain at this point from wasting more time. We spent yesterday and ran up to deadline. We're not good on time management currently.

I think we popcorn right away.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

You're not supposed to say a vote is for pressure unless you're trying to keep people from criticizing your lack of justification. What's your proposed list, Lambda?

Popcorn wouldn't have a list by it's nature, but my preferred first option is VFP.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

VT
LLD'S turn.

I'll try and get on as and when but I'm pretty ill so don't expect much the next couple of days.

VT.

I'd like T3 to go next.

And remember. It's VT or Power Role. Don't claim a specific role yet, at all.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

kay i guess i'll claim next, I am VT.

Pick who goes next, then

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Okay, well that's gross.

We need a result from you Clasko.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

we're not eliminating anyone until a full claim from Clasko and a result claim.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Either way he's being shot at tonight.

If he claims Jailkeeper, he gets a chance to stop the person submitting the kill and also can confirm someone who didn't make the kill last night, which isn't much but it can be something in the grand scheme of things.

If he's cop, he always dies tonight but we get an innocent result which is essentially the same outcome as 2 masons, which is not terrible, on the whole. Especially since the target would be a decent check.

Only downside would be in they targetted cows which.... god if that happened it would suck lol

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Clasko - Conftown
Grandpa - Townread

Everyone else: everyone else

VFP's switch at the end of yesterday I is towny.

Ffs, why do I actually like this post from T3. is t3 actually town? What a world.

What can I say?

My PoE is Looker, you, and maybe LLD?
But because you're pushing looker you're probably not aligned.

I like it but I feel like we're both wrong on Tr'ing Gpa, but i am confident tring gpa for d2. so yeah we can pre much just lim Looker rn unless he becomes towny

To me, LLD immediately townreading you feels like pocketing. Then again, it was really obvious so it might be scumbag tring scumbag?

I want to be clear for everyone that this logic makes no sense because Hockey was opposed to James yesterday and if my goal as scum was to make Hockey happy and pocket them, I would have given them what they wanted and done one of T3/VFP.

And from your perspective, T3, if you know yourself as town, then scum!LLD would have picked you and said "I agree Hockey, let's do this together" instead of going for comical third option James.

Because then theoretical town T3 flips town, and it looks more and more like I'm right about James, and I get to chain the T3 town flip into a James town flip into Eliminate or Lose situation with 2 scum left.

So this logic makes 0 sense for any scenario where I'm scum and T3 is town, because it would have required me to massively misplay yesterday and pick a strictly worse option and take the lead while doing it instead of just passing the burden of choice of a town death onto someone else.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

As for who I think is scum today, I want to hear Clasko finish a claim and progress from there before I start committing my thoughts, because a cop result will change a lot, and I kind of want to see how people react to the outcome of Clasko's claim too

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Clasko - Conftown
Grandpa - Townread

Everyone else: everyone else

VFP's switch at the end of yesterday I is towny.

Ffs, why do I actually like this post from T3. is t3 actually town? What a world.

What can I say?

My PoE is Looker, you, and maybe LLD?
But because you're pushing looker you're probably not aligned.

I like it but I feel like we're both wrong on Tr'ing Gpa, but i am confident tring gpa for d2. so yeah we can pre much just lim Looker rn unless he becomes towny

like i said gamesolve day 1. idk who replaced who or what but whoever replaced strange, i still think is scum.

there is definitly scum between LLD, Looker, and Clasko.

Whoever replaced Bulge is probably town.

These are all skim reads.

Hockey + T3 + Cows were always good townreads.

Game is solved.

If someone is PR, they must out right now, or they are just blantaly game throwing.

Also, if I were scum, I could have just easily claimed PR there and probably won so much easier fyi fyi

Uhh

I replaced Bulge.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Clasko - Conftown
Grandpa - Townread

Everyone else: everyone else

VFP's switch at the end of yesterday I is towny.

Ffs, why do I actually like this post from T3. is t3 actually town? What a world.

What can I say?

My PoE is Looker, you, and maybe LLD?
But because you're pushing looker you're probably not aligned.

I like it but I feel like we're both wrong on Tr'ing Gpa, but i am confident tring gpa for d2. so yeah we can pre much just lim Looker rn unless he becomes towny

like i said gamesolve day 1. idk who replaced who or what but whoever replaced strange, i still think is scum.

there is definitly scum between LLD, Looker, and Clasko.

Whoever replaced Bulge is probably town.

These are all skim reads.

Hockey + T3 + Cows were always good townreads.

Game is solved.

If someone is PR, they must out right now, or they are just blantaly game throwing.

Also, if I were scum, I could have just easily claimed PR there and probably won so much easier fyi fyi

Uhh

I replaced Bulge.

ok good, you were on of my like highest townleans out of the poe. u have been the only one that is like actively gamesolving every since being replaced in.

bulge was already a high townread from day 1 after having the same thoughts on hockey but ur day 2 is good so far.

Problem is, GPM, that Clasko is the unCC'd Power Role and that makes him confirmed town.

So right now if I'm town and Clasko is town, your PoE has one person in it and that's Looker. And we have 2 scum.

So it might be time for a re-eval on the rest of the game.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Okay, well that's gross.

We need a result from you Clasko.

Yup, there was always that risk from my POV that I would be the only town PR (50% chance) - most likely C1.

I am indeed outing as Cop, and I

did

get a result (that wasn't cows, lol, that would have been a bad moo-ve) (sorry not sorry).

I'll probably out it when there's 5 days left from deadline (16-ish hours from this post) if that's okay with everyone else - I can reveal sooner if everyone wants, but VFP's the only one who hasn't had a chance to post when we finished mass-claiming and i'd like to know his thoughts pre-result.

16 hours? Hmmm. Okay. I can see what you're going for here. I'm... a little hesitant because I'm worried you might catch as many townies in this as you would scum people, but as long as we take pre-result reads with a grain of salt and look more at inferred connections than first level reads, we're in a good spot.

Plus, 5 days it well enough time to handle this, so okay. 16 hours.

New game, folks:

Everyone but Clasko must play. Name the 2 people you think have the highest individual chance of being scum. It doesn't matter if they'd make a good team, it doesn't matter if you think one of them might be scum but it would make the other town. I'm asking you to provide the two names that, individually, if you voted for either of them today, give the best odds of fipping scum.

I'll even go first.

I think right now I'm on T3 and HockeyFan.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I think right now I'm on T3 and HockeyFan.

Wait why T3 and Hockey?

Because why DID Hockey just give up yesterday when he opposed my James push over his own? It would have been simple enough. And now, coming into today, something is fucking funky about T3 and Hockey's interactions.

For me, consider this

VFP is the first one to swap onto James with me. VFP knows I'll do T3 instead of james and is on T3. So if T3 is town and VFP is scum why do this? It's moderately pointless and only makes VFP look WAY worse for that sudden move. It has only one outcome, in my mind.

I thikn VFP can only reasonably be scum with T3 EXACTLY. Otherwise VFP has zero incentive to switch.

So if it's VFP and T3, my play stlll wins us the game. There are some other outcomes where T3 is scum, like possible T3 and Hockey vibes, but the big point here is that if VFP is scum, at minimum I think so is T3 and by killing T3/Hockey, we put ourselves in a winning position.

so that just leaves "What if T3 is town?"

Well, consider how Hockey played yesterday, and remember what I said about Hockey's switch. Hockey switching as scum makes a lot of sense because Hockey gets to do more or less what he wants. Come into today with several players townreading them and push mostly the same outcomes. Instant push on Looker.

So consider this: Who benefits from a VFP vs. T3 push if both are town? There's odds that Hockey was bussing T3 in a small sense, because it can be hockey and T3 together with hockey on VFP as preference right? and then switches to james

but let's assume T3 is town since that's nightmare scenario. I can't see Hockey being scum with VFP and being ON VFP in that scenario when it's 1v1 like that and VFP is losing. Too easy to find another place. I also think VFP is only scum with T3.

so if T3 is town. And VFP is town.

How does that make Hockey look?

AWFUL.

I think that if T3 and VFP are town, Hockey MUST be scum. And that if VFP is scum, so much T3 be, where as T3 could be scum without necessitating it being with VFP.

So, that brings us to our final outcome: There is a high high probability of likelyhood that one of Hockey and T3 is scum. Picking these two ensures the game goes at minimum to 3P endgame, and the likely shots will be Clasko and whoever clasko targetted with their cop check.

Which means you probably have 3 of:

VFP
GrandpaMo
Looker
Me

in that endgame.

if it's Hockey scum, T3 town: I'm looking at either you or Looker, probably Looker. Makes sense for Hockey to soft bus here and see what goes down.

If it's T3 scum, Hockey town: Ship VFP and never look back, I think.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

And obviously if it's both T3 and Hockey we have exactly 0 to worry about.

That's my logic. That's why I picked those 2.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Admittedly my scenario loses to EXACTLY VFP+Looker but I have a hard time seeing that line

I'll be able to revise once we get our cop result, but I have a sneaking suspicion I'm going to hear the words "LLD-Town" from their check based on things from yesterday which will help some of you a lot and me basically not at all, lol

[Lady Lambdadelta]

VOTE: Looker
PoE.

can yall just wait ffs.

i ask for you to unvote, until we get more input / info either from the cop or VFP.

I also ask for you @LLD to out your result, I doubt VFP will come back and it will with another replacement and that replacement will need to reread the game.

Up to you, but I prefer outing now.

I don't have the result. Clasko does.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Oh that feels good.

I am thinking it is one or VFP or Hockey.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Here is a question: why does T3 shoot Cows?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

We should consider that to look at pairings.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

The bigger concern for me Hockey is you voted VFP and James Day 1 while pushing the "one of T3/VFP is scum" narrative.

It feels a lot like you were on conveniently wrong targets when an obviously right one was sitting there in punching distance of your reads.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

VFP and Hockey are still town

my top desire to kill is James

cow got better, but I'm still suspicious.

T3 is in the range of "I don't mind killing this slot because it'll tell me a lot and their reads don't align remotely with mine"

Rock should still be town I think as well.

I will kill James, then T3, then Cow in that order today, of preference. I will never vote Hockey or VFP today for sure though.

can I have a current votecount?

What makes T3 on your radar as scum right now?

he has not done anythign towny. Also fwiw, the whole T3/VFP thing is only something i am going to pay attention on d1 most likely. I said in 719 that i think town should shift away from it a bit but since no one budged, i got back on it as we got closer to deadline. Stop assuming that I am going to sus ONLY these 2 the whole gmae

If I give some names, can you tell me what these players have done that is towny? And where the bar is currently at?

Looker
Grampa
LLD
Clasko

Any order is fine.

From

most

town to

least

town

Clakso- Really Really liked thier entrenacne,reads and the reasoning behind it e.t.c
LLD- Dont have a good read on this slot, but I think the confidence she showed right at the beginning is +town
Grampa- weirdly enough, their whole interaction/tunnel with me is town
Looker- cant get a read on this slot - null

And just as a reminder, anyone who is "null" to me is STILL higher than scum on my reads list. For example- Looker/LLD/somewhat Grandpa are probs on my null list but LLD/Grandpa HAVE done towny things which is why they're not on my scum list

Also, i will be gone for about the next hour, so sorry if i dont respond to u quickly

This is such a generic response that you're just missing "gut". Your argument was T3 hasn't done anything that is town. Wouldn't that put T3 as null rather than just a little less scummy than me?
Let's start with each.

Clakso, which reads in particular? Why is this the most basic reasoning but yet the most town read to you?

LLD - Why can't scum be confident? What has LLD done for you that is town, considering that confidence isn't a town tell and you have advised that LLD has done something as town.

Grampa - why is their tunnel on you town? What posts from the interaction are you liking as town? What has Grampa done that is town? Pushed you?

Looker - whats the difference with Looker and T3?

Vote Count 1-15

The history of the Reuben sandwich is somewhat contested. There is some evidence that the first Reuben was served at the Blackstone Hotel in Omaha, Nebraska that hosted a (yes, once again) gambling club. and also that Reuben's Restaurant in New York was the birthplace of the sandwich. By the 1940s, there are menus from both restaurants that feature the Reuben as it is known today: corned beef, Swiss cheese, sauerkraut, and Russian dressing, grilled between slices of rye bread.

T3

(3): VFP, JamesTheNames, cowsloveSushirolls

VFP

(2): Looker, HockeyFan

Looker

(1): GrandpaMo

JamesTheNames

(1): T3

Not Voting

(2): Clasko, Lady Lambdadelta

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate.

Revised Deadline: July 17, Midnight US Eastern Time (one day added)

Countdown: (expired on 2021-07-16 21:00:00)

Mod Notes:

fferyllt-Cabd combined ISO for vote counts
-

This VC is still the same.

VOTE: James
If there's interest here I can lim James over T3. I'm changing my mind on T3.

Vote: James

This sequence is also an argument for VFP scum with T3, and why I said VFP is probably only ever scum with T3.

I say I'm preference order James>T3>Cows which really means I'm doing either James or T3 today.

VFP, who has been on T3 has a choice: Commit there, or take the out.

Cross bussing between them could make sense if they commit to the "one of but not both" argument, and suddenly VFP sees a way out and swaps off their top read? What changed their mind?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I feel like... we have 7 left right?

Clasko is town and dying tonight
T3 is scum and dyign today.

So it's gonna be

LLD
GPM
Looker
VFP
Hockey

and we have 2 cracks at it. If we miss the first time, Mafia have to shoot and clear someone else for us, and then go into the last day.

The way I'm looking at this is this: it's two different scenarios right? 4:1 is a "take your best shot" and 2:1 if we get there is a "re-evaluate everything and everyone"

So when I say this, I want people to understand what position it is coming from. This is logic for the 4:1 day only.

Looker was pushed by everyone on the oops all scummy list. T3, Hockey wanted them dead and VFP was absentia. I think it's possible for T3 to push Looker as a bus here but I just thikn there's equal to better odds Looker was the "this player looks bad let's try and get him mis-eliminated."

So we can't do Looker tomorrow.

GPM came into today saying "LLD, Clasko, Looker" that's another Looker pusher.

But his lack of consistency with LLD=Bulge and when I mentioned it his flop on me to town was good.

Clasko being town left him with no on in the pool, and he went to VFP over T3.

VFP Looker is... possibly game losing, but given it's double outside my selected pool, it was always possible if one of us was all right, the other was all wrong.

This also confirms at least one townie wanted Looker, so... it's interesting.

Hockey wanted T3, but preferred Looker. Second day in a row Hockey has listed T3 on their suspects but not gone onto them.

What really interests me is why Hockey stopped going for VFP over T3. VFP was their preference until James yesterday, do why did they open on Looker, claim it was just for pressure, then say Looker's name?

VFP is super AFK, but VFP is the one who kicked the James wagon into motion. If VFP is scum, it's exclusively with T3, because if T3 was town, he would have let me pick and take more fall for it.

So... where do we go from here?

I read GPM's indecisiveness, willingness to change their reads and re-evaluate and their interactions with me as town.

It's... a little weird that T3 called them obvious town, but I feel as if, that can be looking to get them under line, and doesn't feel like the partner move with a cop investigate out.

So let's... I think at least for tomorrow clear GPM.

that leaves Hockey/Looker/VFP

I can't see myself wanting to kill the person that scum wanted to kill today. I think there was enough consensus growing that T3 could have done this to bus incase of a cop guilty... but if it's T3/Looker, supporting Hockeyfan doesn't win him the game and he does need to kill the cop, so he can't just kill Hockey. I think T3/Looker is harder to have as a pairing just because T3's play ONLY works if T3 dies before Looker.

So let's write Looker off for tomorrow too.

Which leaves Hockey or VFP. And that's what I want to discuss, where to go tomorrow with that.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Clasko, as confirmed town, now would be a great time for you to bounce ideas off me since you are gonna be 6 feet under tomorrow.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

hi lld

i promised to play nice since this is the newbie queue, so let's get along

sure? i don't really have a problem with you, if that's what you think >.>

[Lady Lambdadelta]

oh god you're VFP

this... may not be very fun for you

[Lady Lambdadelta]

i had followed this game loosely, i am aware of the current situation (clasko cleared cop with a guilty on T3)

was reasonably confident in my read of VFP being town, took the slot, was happy to see i was correct

luckily, as we already have information at our feet, i don't have to read the whole game linearly, i can just put on a clinic for the newbies on how to partner hunt with confirmed scum, which is good because i work way better with flips



i will say up front that i think hockeyfan is very very likely T3's teammate based on a quick search i did at work, will get into the full analysis later when i have time

This was my assessment as well, which you'll find if you read back. Sadly, my other top pick for T3 partner is VFP. Which is your slot.

So some of the work you put in is going to be tainted by that unfortunately. I'm not sure if it'll be enough to sell me that you don't need to die, but you might be able to convince me to let you live tomorrow and go to ELO instead of HockeyFan?

Cause I'm doing T3 today and one of Hockey or VFP(you) tomorrow so.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

oh god you're VFP

this... may not be very fun for you

lol i wouldn't have jumped into this game if i didn't think this slot was town

understand why you scumread this slot but think your reasoning is a little bit off, might spend a little time on that, am perfectly willing to make a bet the game wager on my one scumread being correct if there's any fear i might wriggle free

engaging me on why you read VFP as town before coming in sounds like something I'd like to hear.

I'm also in a position where I'm not 100% certain I want to bet the farm on T3+Hockey/VFP and lock it down? I feel good about my GPM read and okay about my Looker read but I wanted to re-engage with Clasko before solidifying.

the one concern I have, Peta, is that once Clasko dies I would not be shocked that if I did hockeyfan and hockey flips town, you'd shoot me that night and then it's you v. GPM and Looker. I have no agency there, so it's a question of tomorrow, what's my best winning odds

so I have all those concerns to parse, and that's where my brain is at right now, the more you engage with me about it, the better I think I'll have a sense of it.

But I did come into today and say T3+Hockey because I felt that was... a big likely pairing.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

your slot was claimed, Peta

[Lady Lambdadelta]

And HockeyFan is town from the first page and it's not even close.

first time someone has Tr'd me so quickly

GrandpaMO and Rocky have town equity for their exchange on Page 4.

uh? what part of this interacton is town? Legit all that happend on page 3 is Rocky put a RVS vote on Gpa

Wait @LLD I forgot you had those reads, what made you change you again?

I readjusted post day 1, with how the votes moved and came into day 2 looking at T3 and Hockey as my suspects.

And then their interactions early stunk to hgih hell. That's why I named them as my two.

Looker was Rocky?

Okay, so, like... I really REALLY think it's just one of VFP or Hockey now. Rocky was p. town.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

VT
LLD'S turn.

I'll try and get on as and when but I'm pretty ill so don't expect much the next couple of days.

they claimed here

[Lady Lambdadelta]

they were the first ones to claim, since I said I wanted the popcorn started with them, and they popcorned to me first

[Lady Lambdadelta]

It doesnt change anything. LLD asked me who are the top 2 indivually scummy people(ppl i want to lim today). This does not mean they are PAIRED. Im just saying, T3 and Looker are my mafia reads and people and I want to lim(now that t3 is outed as mafia I MAY re-eval on looker, but no guarantees)

ok so now who u think t3 is mafia wit then ???

Okay, so the only person I dont think T3 is paired with is VFP(peta in this case). This leaves Gpa/LLD/Looker. Out of these 3, Grandpa IS the towniest right now which means through POE, t3's partner is one of LLD/Looker

Right, so your logic is that scum T3 spent all yesterday discrediting me about Meta, then shoots cows, someone I called scum and was possibly in line to Eliminate via votes, then comes into today calling me into question AGAIN

and then I as his partner call for a mass claim and organize it to get to this result

So if I was scum with T3 I would need to have

agreed to a kill on a target that I was okay to eliminate by vote and would probabyl have succeeded at doing
agreed to T3 doing a sabotage on my credibility as I replaced in and lessening my possible control over the game
and agreed to T3 doing it again today, only to call for a massclaim that increased our win percent by quite a bit?

I'd love for you to explain how T3 and I can be scum together.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Clasko has given me what I was looking for, I don't see a reason in progressing further today.

Vote: T3

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Also I am not in favor of a quick hammer in the pervious day just because we had scum confirmed, I still wanted to use the day to get more info from the confirmed cop, and others to see more interactions with other people.

A short day only benefits scum.

Not true, as it happens. At a certain point, longer days begin to turn into Apathy. Town apathy loses games. You need to move on from a stagnant position, at some point. Clasko made their final words, they are headed. We had to move forward.

I have no intention of rushing this day, however. I think I know where I want to vote, but that doesn't mean there's nothing to be done.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Okay, so I looked back through VFP's interactions with t3 and I can confidently say that this slot is not paired with t3, therefore town. VFP spent all of d1 pushing T3 which I dont think thats scum/scum. Also, vfp started pushign t3 right as d1 satrted which once again makes VFP slot town(petapan in this case).

Posts like 243,266,399,443 are town and makes me think they are not paired

Me tring VFP means I'm probably wrong on Gpa and I'm going to move them back to null. The people I still SR(LLD/looker) stay the same atm

Explain why GPA is higher on your townlist than I am, using examples from the game of why you think I'm scum and they are town.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Anyone else see the problem with this from Hockey?

I have gone from about 80/20 to 95/5 Hockey being scum from that response. Mostly because I kind of see what the path is for him now.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Anyone else see the problem with this from Hockey?

I have gone from about 80/20 to 95/5 Hockey being scum from that response. Mostly because I kind of see what the path is for him now.

You just moved it from 80/20 to 95/5 because my "path" has you as scum in it right?

If this were true, I would have moved it yesterday when I spoke to you about why you were saying the same things. I came into today looking for a more clear answer, I already knew you had me as scum.

I wanted to see how your overnight had changed you.

No, it's not me that I'm interested in. It's the GPM read, and how you have done the same thing you did with me, with them.

You began leaning into me, and then switched me into full scum. There was no cognitive consistency in how you did it... almost like you were obligated to because it was your wincon to say these things.

GPM, you have to do the same with. You have to hover them at Null and see what happens. What if you get Looker today? what if you get me today? You need a target for tomorrow.

It was the GPM read that made exactly 0 sense in a logical progression. If you find him null, those town arguments are just....

Basically, I read this as you having to play a game of chess where you set the pieces on the board in the right order to win. You're not actually scum hunting... you're making moves based on what would let you win and your reads reflect this.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Vote: HockeyFan

[Lady Lambdadelta]

god I'm really fucking

[Lady Lambdadelta]

The replacement really fucks with me, because

it totally masques the kill

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Peta I'm going to have a really hard time getting away from my hand here.

but I can't imagine you can leave me alive in this situation, Peta.

Like... I have to feel like you have a better shot of killing Looker if you take GPM and Looker in and leave me out. That I am alive currently hits me with issues that

I said that I couldn't see T3+Looker as scum, and I COULD see T3+VFP as an explicit pairing.

So I'm sitting here wondering if that read was just spot on, but I don't know if you'd do some kill ninjitsu.

Cause I feel like you have to know if you vote for me here Peta, that Looker probably votes for you.

Which makes me wonder if you can even DO the fake out required

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Because to me, I feel like it went like this

Peta's best move was to shoot me, someone who is incredibly likely t vote for them today, EVEN WITH this kill choice logic happening. So killing me and arguing it's looker is their best play.
My best move is to shoot Looker. This is the worst F3 for me possible. I've made it clear I'm gunning for Peta, so Peta has to stay, but I have more sway and control over GPM than Looker. That said, GPM replaced out Manatee replaced in there may be odds I'm supposed to shoot the fresh eyes as scum here if I'm scum and make my due with looker, and play like I have come into today.

But I know I'm town, so, kinda moot point.

So then, we have Looker. And shooting GPM's slot IS looker's best move. Because I'm slated to kill Peta. And because Looker was somoene i said i couldn't pair with T3.

So looker has all the incentive in the world to make this kill.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I'd like to hear what both of you think now, if I'm being honest. I need to hear both of your positions before we get a cross vote going.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

this is kind of an awkward situation

general f3 theory says what gets said on this day is not that important, the main information you should base your decision around is on previous days

but as none of us are the original occupants of our slots in this sham of a game, we can't answer for our predecessors so even our ability to discuss past actions is limited



is there anything either of you want to ask me?

right now, GTH, who would you vote?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

god this day is fucking with me

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Look, I gotta be honest.

I'm back reading the game...and trying to solve it, and I'm still getting stuck in the same rut I had when I initially went for a solve.

But I can't imagine you not killing me Peta.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Not voting.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Well, I guess P-Edit changed that but, yea

[Lady Lambdadelta]

not voting

[Lady Lambdadelta]

okay, knew it would come to this, lol

[Lady Lambdadelta]

thank god

yeah no this isn't my scumgame, lol

[Lady Lambdadelta]

you're so dangerous peta

[Lady Lambdadelta]

glad you're having fun, the hard part's over for you.

Now, regardless of your alignment, you gotta try and convince me to lay down my hand.

Cause I came in today pretty deadset on voting you

[Lady Lambdadelta]

cool edgy?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

And at that point I suspected you anyway, lambda

This isn't the point in your favour you think it is.

I had a feeling you did. I think Peta is smart enough to know that too. I don't think Peta votes first, for you at least, with that on the table. He either waits to see what you vote, because the worst that can happen is he ends up in this situation anyway, or he votes me to increase his odds.

If anything, this feels the best reason to view you as scum I could have.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

mine

NO IT AIN'T

HUEHUEHUEHUEHUEHUE

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Man I'm so tempted to vote right now.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

God I just wish I could see your eyes and hear your voice, Peta.

I feel like all I need is that and I'd know.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Dude, my head tells me I should do a re-read, and my heart says I'm pretty convinced of my opinion.

Guh

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I'm gonna hate myself so much if I'm wrong, but I feel like I have to lay it down here.

Peta's completely polarized. Either Peta made the incredible bluff of not killing me despite knowing I'm angling to kill him, then not voting me and letting me have the choice, voting first to do so and doing the vote unvote trick and then not changing his mind after I posted.... or all of that is as town as it seems to make him.

So it's really just a matter of "do I think peta behaves this way as scum?" I think Peta has the ability to do it. Looker did say he was coming for Peta, but I'm more concerning I think in that sense, from a night kill perspective.

I came into today confident Peta was scum. I still think that maybe odds favour him supposing to be scum.

But Looker looks so scummy and the circumstantials are just not right

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Peta, if you're scum, you convinced me to lay it down with the only move that convinces me specifically. I think you probably have easier paths to a win than this one though, so I can't imagine why you'd do it. If you did choose this path and went for style points... I dunno what to say.

Fucking hell.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Vote: Looker

i feel like i'm wrong but i dno't think i can get away from my own logic here

gg

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Eyyyyyyy Let's goooooooooooo

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Hello. It is I, a watcher from the shadows

@LLD

Can you talk about what led you to making this play?

Spoiler:

Today is the day for a mass claim, btw. We're in a 5:2 situation, and we have 2 confirmed townies we can create, with a possible better outcome depending on roles.

So we need to organize a popcorn claiming list. We pick the scummiest person, and then make them claim, then, they tell someone else to claim, and we go down the list. This way, it makes counter claims a little harder to fake too.

I also think, for the immediate moment in the claim order, you shouldn't claim your ROLE, just whether you are a Vanilla Townie or a Power Role.

If we have any counter claiming, we can use that to try and catch people, but if we don't, we don't reveal what power is where to the scum.

Anyone disagree with this?

Never seen something like that suggested day 2 of a newbie game, and was the reason I started spectating this game lol

So, let's start with the non mechanical reasons.

We'd just flipped a townie, and the game was at risk of hitting apathy. Forcing a mass claim creates new info and makes people have to chew on it and make decisions. I felt that using the mass claim timing here would provide town +EV if done like this.

Now, mechanical stuff: Popcorn because it prevents scum from being able to do weird fake claim stuff, and only claiming "power role or no" because of the same.

The way this setup is built creates the possibility for duplication errors. In that a cop is fine, ubt there's no guarantee the jailkeeper that claims is real or not, because the cop can't know the setup. It could be a real jailkeeper, or it could be mafia making the guess from that position.

Having popcorn'd order makes it harder to plan the timing of a fake claim, and having hidden role names and only claiming to have power or not hides the setup they need to duplicate.

Had more than one person claimed a power role, we would have been making them power claim in reverse order of the order they claimed, and then evaluating what came from that.

In essence, doing it this way created the GUARANTEE of a few confirmed townies, or gave us a guilty and a good plan. In this scenario, my play wasn't super necessary since we had a cop with a guilty

but what happens if the cop just claims the guilty and then the jailkeeper claims later?

Cop claims it, we kill 1, and the fake jail keeper "clears" someone as not the person who killed the cop and then it's GG. It's game over. Then the JK no kills, claims a guilty and boom.

We lose to duplication error.

Doing it this way prevents ALL that gambit shit.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Hockey, the misread on you was my fault. I had you as my towniest player day 1, and then I saw T3 scum and I was like... Hockey/T3 makes a LOT of sense.

And with the free space we had to make 1 mistake, I didn't feel comfortable letting you live. If I'd relied on my initial instincts, I'd have kept you town.

Just saw something weird and got a little paranoid.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

It's also a function of how I refresh my reads after a town flip.

James flips town, gotta refresh, okay, T3 scum still, who else.

Okay, Hockey flips town and I'm not night killed... let's refresh again

[Lady Lambdadelta]

well that was a game of some kind

if any of the newbies who were in the game are still paying attention and want feedback,

How do you not get condemmed . Moreso, how do radiate town/towncase yourself

feel free to ask. not even sure how many of them stuck around given the unfortunate number of replace outs

So everything you did day 1 was so fucking town. It radiated it and I was never more confident.

The issue was, coming into day 2, your interactions with T3 about Looker specifically, and the instant Looker vote and the reason you gave for it were insinspiring.

If you'd said "Looker is scummy and I want more pressure here today" I'd have vibed.

But you said it so passively. "I'm not sure if he's scum but I wanna see more".

It made it look like a scum semi push.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

well that was a game of some kind

if any of the newbies who were in the game are still paying attention and want feedback,

How do you not get condemmed . Moreso, how do radiate town/towncase yourself

feel free to ask. not even sure how many of them stuck around given the unfortunate number of replace outs

So everything you did day 1 was so fucking town. It radiated it and I was never more confident.

The issue was, coming into day 2, your interactions with T3 about Looker specifically, and the instant Looker vote and the reason you gave for it were insinspiring.

If you'd said "Looker is scummy and I want more pressure here today" I'd have vibed.

But you said it so passively. "I'm not sure if he's scum but I wanna see more".

It made it look like a scum semi push.

yea makes sense. The problem is, i wasnt ready to start hard pushing Looker there cuz he had like 3-4 posts.

So lie. Fake it. Act more confident that you really are.

Sometimes it doesn't matter what your actual intentions are, just that you sell it to the town better.

I'm being serious here. Deadly serious. If you come out acting way more confident about it and lead it a bit more? You probably come out town.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Hello. It is I, a watcher from the shadows

@LLD

Can you talk about what led you to making this play?

Spoiler:

Today is the day for a mass claim, btw. We're in a 5:2 situation, and we have 2 confirmed townies we can create, with a possible better outcome depending on roles.

So we need to organize a popcorn claiming list. We pick the scummiest person, and then make them claim, then, they tell someone else to claim, and we go down the list. This way, it makes counter claims a little harder to fake too.

I also think, for the immediate moment in the claim order, you shouldn't claim your ROLE, just whether you are a Vanilla Townie or a Power Role.

If we have any counter claiming, we can use that to try and catch people, but if we don't, we don't reveal what power is where to the scum.

Anyone disagree with this?

Never seen something like that suggested day 2 of a newbie game, and was the reason I started spectating this game lol

So, let's start with the non mechanical reasons.

We'd just flipped a townie, and the game was at risk of hitting apathy. Forcing a mass claim creates new info and makes people have to chew on it and make decisions. I felt that using the mass claim timing here would provide town +EV if done like this.

Now, mechanical stuff: Popcorn because it prevents scum from being able to do weird fake claim stuff, and only claiming "power role or no" because of the same.

The way this setup is built creates the possibility for duplication errors. In that a cop is fine, ubt there's no guarantee the jailkeeper that claims is real or not, because the cop can't know the setup. It could be a real jailkeeper, or it could be mafia making the guess from that position.

Having popcorn'd order makes it harder to plan the timing of a fake claim, and having hidden role names and only claiming to have power or not hides the setup they need to duplicate.

Had more than one person claimed a power role, we would have been making them power claim in reverse order of the order they claimed, and then evaluating what came from that.

In essence, doing it this way created the GUARANTEE of a few confirmed townies, or gave us a guilty and a good plan. In this scenario, my play wasn't super necessary since we had a cop with a guilty

but what happens if the cop just claims the guilty and then the jailkeeper claims later?

Cop claims it, we kill 1, and the fake jail keeper "clears" someone as not the person who killed the cop and then it's GG. It's game over. Then the JK no kills, claims a guilty and boom.

We lose to duplication error.

Doing it this way prevents ALL that gambit shit.

Minor correction, I mixed up the setups. It's tracker+jk and cop+doc. Same logic still applies, just the exaple given at the bottom needs to change slightly.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Spoiler:

We'd just flipped a townie, and the game was at risk of hitting apathy. Forcing a mass claim creates new info and makes people have to chew on it and make decisions. I felt that using the mass claim timing here would provide town +EV if done like this.

Now, mechanical stuff: Popcorn because it prevents scum from being able to do weird fake claim stuff, and only claiming "power role or no" because of the same.

The way this setup is built creates the possibility for duplication errors. In that a cop is fine, ubt there's no guarantee the jailkeeper that claims is real or not, because the cop can't know the setup. It could be a real jailkeeper, or it could be mafia making the guess from that position.

Having popcorn'd order makes it harder to plan the timing of a fake claim, and having hidden role names and only claiming to have power or not hides the setup they need to duplicate.

Had more than one person claimed a power role, we would have been making them power claim in reverse order of the order they claimed, and then evaluating what came from that.

In essence, doing it this way created the GUARANTEE of a few confirmed townies, or gave us a guilty and a good plan. In this scenario, my play wasn't super necessary since we had a cop with a guilty

but what happens if the cop just claims the guilty and then the jailkeeper claims later?

Cop claims it, we kill 1, and the fake jail keeper "clears" someone as not the person who killed the cop and then it's GG. It's game over. Then the JK no kills, claims a guilty and boom.

We lose to duplication error.

Doing it this way prevents ALL that gambit shit.

That makes sense, but like I said I have never seen it done before.

Is that something you think should be done in general in a game that had a day 1 VT elim and a night 1 VT kill?

Or was there something more specific about this game that made you lean that way?

I think that, in this setup, a day 2 massclaim is nearly always correct. You risk far too much trying to extract more value out of unknown roles that may not HAVE any more value to create.

For example, Masons will only ever create 2 clears.

I think it's simpler to think about when you SHOULDN'T massclaim day 2. I have a hard time thinking of one in which I'm inclined not to. It creates a lot of new info for people to latch onto and reinvigorate a game, it means the reads people had from day 1 and into day 2 are either validated or need to be re-evaluated, and it prevents weird role claim shenanigans like I mentioned above.

I think it's just a good way to maximize your value from roles in almost all situations. Because most of the time, the eventual outcome is getting 2 cleared townies. From almost all of the situations. And that's pretty good, all things considered.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

One of the hotter topics in the dead thread was the Day 1 elim of JamesTheNames. I think it came down to running out of time and trying to make an elim happen given the players available to consolidate at that point.

He was nowhere near a universal scumread. He was a townread for the majority of players, I think.

Why do you think that happened?

peta's suggestions for how to take the lead and get an elim you want could have helped with the end of day 1, I think.

My best guess is that people saw recent votes on James from T3 and VFP(i think) and they wanted to sheep it. I think clakso voted james because he was the majority vote or smth. it was still a super unfortunate condemm

James died because I pushed him. I don't regret it or think it was a mistake.

My evaluation was that desipte T3 and VFP being scummy, doing the tango between them was a waste of win percentage and information. If they were both town from that position, we lose the game. Even if one of them was scum, we're in similar bad spots decently often.

Suddenly killing james polarized the game into "people who wanted to kill james" and "people who were opposed" and it helped me a lot in how we progressed through the game.

I don't regret it, also, because I felt James had scum equity tbh.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

What about the worry that we only have 1 pr?

Like, in this game, if clasko had claimed PR, and then Looker had claimed PR. That could have been 2 pr claims, with no counter claim?

Obviously that is a risk for the scum team, but they also know that they are in column c, so there is a 67% chance that one can get cleared into the pr group

Read the column again. One of the outcomes is Cop, who will either have a guilty (optimal) or an innocent (creating 2 cleared townies, the average)

The WOST POSSIBLE OUTCOME for this strategy is C2, Tracker Vanilla Townie. Because unless the tracker hits a positive result, their "clear" is not particularly useful. You get like, 1.5/1.25ish cleared townies.

If you end up in that situation, though, you just have to take your licks and move forward, I think. It's still optimal to the tracker dying without claiming their results.

And please note, that scum always know what column we are in by their own roles. So they don't have to guess from 9 setups, only 3. So once they know 1 role, with the exception of friendly neighbour, the know the setup.

So there's no point in hiding once you start claiming. The goons know when they're both goons, they're shooting for investigative roles or masons. People who tend to be quieter. It gives scum a higher likelyhood of shooting correctly, so don't give them multiple shots at it.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

One of the hotter topics in the dead thread was the Day 1 elim of JamesTheNames. I think it came down to running out of time and trying to make an elim happen given the players available to consolidate at that point.

He was nowhere near a universal scumread. He was a townread for the majority of players, I think.

Why do you think that happened?

peta's suggestions for how to take the lead and get an elim you want could have helped with the end of day 1, I think.

My best guess is that people saw recent votes on James from T3 and VFP(i think) and they wanted to sheep it. I think clakso voted james because he was the majority vote or smth. it was still a super unfortunate condemm

James died because I pushed him. I don't regret it or think it was a mistake.

My evaluation was that desipte T3 and VFP being scummy, doing the tango between them was a waste of win percentage and information. If they were both town from that position, we lose the game. Even if one of them was scum, we're in similar bad spots decently often.

Suddenly killing james polarized the game into "people who wanted to kill james" and "people who were opposed" and it helped me a lot in how we progressed through the game.

I don't regret it, also, because I felt James had scum equity tbh.

What did he do/not do that drew your attention? What should he work on to avoid it happening in the future?

I'd need to re-read, I dumped that out of my brain after day 1, especially since I replaced in, but... I think that what pinged me about James was the way in which he approached his reads feeling more like scum who was trying to make appearance of scumhunting over town who actually was?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Again, I can't overstate the power of confidence and selling yourself to others.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

So here's what happens, Luke, ready?

First of all, scum have to risk if they claim PR in the popcorn, the outcome of hitting the 3rd row. 2 Masons. If they claim PR, and it's masons, it's GG. 2 clears AND a guilty is basically game over.

So 33% chance to lose on the spot if you fake it. But let's say you have a hard read it's not that, what happens then. So you claim PR, or maybe you go last and there's only one claim so it's confirmed not masons, and you do that. So what now?

Well, if you went last, you have to claim your role first. Which means you have a 50/50 of fucking it up. You could claim Doctor, if you wanted, but here's the risk. If you claim doctor, and it's tracker? You can NEVER KILL THE TRACKER. Because there's no roleblocker. in that setup. So that's a loss. So you're 50/50 of hitting the right one of Doctor with cop or JK with tracker if you have to claim first.

Okay, so maybe you claimed correctly, or maybe you were asked to claim first so you claim role name second. Well, in that scenario, you dodged a 33 percent chance to lose, or a 50 percent chance to lose, so you're clear, right?

Wrong.

You never trust the Doctor or Jailkeeper claim as town. Since they have no power role, since you're faking that we're in A column. There's no use for you. So, we don't kill you on that day, but here's the fun thing.

If we kill a scum and they don't flip Roleblocker? You have to die for your claim. Die before ELO, because letting you live to ELO with your claim is kind of dangerous.

So you're not confirmed town with your claim. You don't get any benefit from it. And the town needs to suspect you anyway. So all you do is risk huge losses for no real gain, assuming the town understands only to trust the cop and the cop's result, or the tracker and the tracker's result.

And in no other world can scum fake claim.

Now, there are worlds where we ARE in A column, and this means a trusted town JK or Doctor will be suspected or killed. But that's okay too. Since you have actual Night 1 result chances to stop a kill in that world. So EV increases to balance there anyway.

TL;DR is... this SHOULD lock down and lock scum out of claims without them risking game losnig blunders, and doesn't provide them much benefit for trying.