Newbie 2074 | Game Over


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Post Post #47 (isolation #0) » Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:49 am

Post by Val89 »

Hello all,

Happy to have been able to slip into another Nahdia newbie game. I do like these games particularly because they attract a certain type of player. I've yet to venture outside the newbie queue, so I am not sure if this happens in other queues, but I've found if I go back and look very carefully at the players who eventually flip mafia, I have found they leave a very subtle clue in their very early posts that they have in fact rolled scum. I'm not sure of the psychology myself, but I guess it's a kind of taunt, perhaps? A sort of "look at me, I'm so smart I can TELL you I'm scum and you still can't catch me", maybe?

In any case, I've started the habit of looking very closely at the early posts in my newbie games, seeing if I can pick up one; and guess what? I think I have one in this game. Let me present:
In post 20, ClarkBar wrote:vanilla with a little caramel is my go to
This pinged me straight away. Like, what? If you are adding caramel to something, it's no longer vanilla, is it? Then I remembered - a long time ago my uncle taught me how to solve the cryptic crossword, of the variety you might find in the The Times or other UK broadsheets. This reads a little bit like one of those - "go to" being an anagram indicator, maybe? It's not standard, and I don't recall seeing a clue with that exact one, but I guess if you are in a rush and you have to make the surface spot on in order to make it fit the exact RQS question that has been offered to you you might have to be a bit loose with the construction. "With a little x", however, is absolutely standard. Seen it loads of times. You take a 'little' of the word X, ie: not the complete word, and add it to your anagram fodder, in this case: 'vanilla'. Let's do that, and let us see if we get a solution: (vanillacara)* =
Aaran Cavill
. First attempt. Easy.

Now, for any of you that didn't follow Second division English football around the turn of the millenium (although I doubt there are many in this player list that wouldn't recognise at least a few of the big name stars, like Mr Cavill), he was a midfielder for Northampton Town FC around 2001 to 2004ish. Can you guess what colour home strip Northampton Town play in? You are probably way ahead of me even if you aren't a fan of Association Football - it's Red, of course. ClarkBar is mafia.

Think about it. Think of all the coincidences that would have to align for that to be a simple accident. The construction is weird. It happens to be an almost perfect fit for a cryptic crossword clue. Solving it brings up a single unique solution that very neatly ties it to a red role PM? Could I be talking out my arse? I think that's highly unlikely. I think ClarkBar must have done that deliberately, and I'm only sorry I spoiled it this early. I do want to take a moment to express my respect for the cleverness of the construction there, Clark, and I almost feel guilty for voting you because of it.

Almost.

VOTE: ClarkBar

I also want to point out that it's been a good 40 minutes since Nahdia announced I was replacing into this game, and me and JamesTheNames still haven't death-tunneled each other in all that time. I think that has to be regarded with suspicion also, but clearly ClarkBar is obviously the lim for today, and we can look at James tomorrow if he still isn't convinced I am scum by then.
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Post Post #50 (isolation #1) » Thu Jul 22, 2021 9:47 am

Post by Val89 »

In post 49, Leaven wrote:I would assume vanilla with caramel refers to vanilla with caramel topping, although it is a bit ambiguous and could be mistaken for vanilla with a caramel swirl.
Nah, It's ambiguous because it has to be to make the clue work. If he meant "Vanilla with caramel topping" he would have said "Vanilla with caramel topping", but then that is entirely different clue; in that case you add the "topping" of the word caramel ie: the letters L or 'EL' to the anagram fodder, and you don't get the footballer playing in a red shirt anymore.

This is exactly what I meant when I said it pinged me. Maybe "not vanilla anymore" was overstating the issue, but if Clark meant any of Vanilla with caramel topping, or Vanilla with a caramel swirl, or any other variation, there was no reason you couldn't say that. Unless, of course, he had to speicfically construct your sentence the way he did for reasons.

Interesting you would try and fudge the issue like this, though. Wouldn't happen to be Clarks' scumbuddy, would you?
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Post Post #86 (isolation #2) » Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:20 pm

Post by Val89 »

In post 85, cowsloveSushirolls wrote:in newbie 2068, they did nearly the same thing as here for their opening posts, and so it read out to me as a deliberate attempt to keep their posting habits uniform, which val admits a part of
are you able to look back to that game and point out differences that imply that val is doing this as scum this time around?
Sushi, we are dealing with a 2012 player with a 3 pages previous post list. You don't think they didnt go back and look how I usually open my games already?

Give them a bit longer to talk themselves into trouble before giving them a way to back out, would you?
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Post Post #88 (isolation #3) » Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:23 pm

Post by Val89 »

As an aside, my eldest daughter has a nickname that I shorten to 'sushi', so calling you that might have been force of habbit. :oops:

If you prefer another diminutive, let me know...
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Post Post #89 (isolation #4) » Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:31 pm

Post by Val89 »

In post 87, Ythan wrote:I'm from 09 and I don't read meta.
Even when you have a "What the fuck is that?" reaction to an opening post, and think something might be clearly and opening scummy from post 1; especially when someone else comes alongs and says something like "I'm your biggest fan!", you don't feel the need to quickly check it out?

In any case, it's so obviously hokum that I think there might be a town explanation for it. Perhaps Dannflor really wanted to vote my slot regardless of what I actually posted, and wanted some at least sort-of serious sounding justification so people would pay attention to it. I can certainly think of a reason someone would want to do that on my slot in particular, but a 2012 player would also know it wouldn't exactly be in the spirit of the rules to give it as the genuine reason for the vote.

He is either scum, or a naughty town who deserves a spanking. Since he is also a Queen's Gambit player, I am inclined to give the benefit of the doubt and say the latter for now, but my eyes are now peeled with respect to that slot.
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Post Post #91 (isolation #5) » Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:37 pm

Post by Val89 »

You also think the post was scummy?
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Post Post #93 (isolation #6) » Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:44 pm

Post by Val89 »

So, to clarify, you are simply acting as the spokesperson for another slot, postulating reasons why something scummy another a player has done might not actually be scummy, while simultaneously sheeping their vote onto a slot you don't actually think is scummy?

Do you still have room in that pocket for someone else?
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Post Post #97 (isolation #7) » Thu Jul 22, 2021 10:28 pm

Post by Val89 »

In post 95, cowsloveSushirolls wrote:sorry, 3 pages previous post list? i'm not too bright
The list of "previous users post" extends to 3 pages - some 210 threads - not all mafia games, of course, but an indication that someone has played a dent amount. I agree join date alone doesn't mean a lot if someone joined years a go but only has a hand full of games in the period. This isn't the case here, though.
In post 95, cowsloveSushirolls wrote:i honestly dont believe they did any of that. because of this I thought that by doing half the work of the meta skim I can prevent unnecessary conflict that could lead to something a lot worse
Fair enough, we can disagree of that point - but even if he didn't do even the briefest of meta searches, Salsabil Faria indentifies in the other reason why his
stated
reason for voting me is rubbish, and it doesn't require any knoweldge about how I've always opened my games to realise that. In other words, there just isn't any way the reason he is voting me is actually geunine, and so the decision you have to make is "is there a town reason for lying about why you are voting for a slot?". In normal circumstances, I would say it indicates something scummy, but as I said previously, I think in this specific instance there might be a town justifcation, if the legit reason for voting my slot toes a bit close to the line where the rules are concerned.
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Post Post #102 (isolation #8) » Fri Jul 23, 2021 1:48 am

Post by Val89 »

Balancing?

Maybe I'm a bit slow on the uptake, but I don't know what this refers to, and I couldn't find anything on the wiki.
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Post Post #104 (isolation #9) » Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:11 am

Post by Val89 »

Well, some of the games I am playing in are still ongoing, so you will have to go at look yourself, but I think you will quickly find why that isn't an issue.

I do it because it has an excellent track record in moving the game out of RVS pretty sharpish and into substantive slot-sorting. I would suggest it appears to have been successful at that endeavour this time around, too.
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Post Post #122 (isolation #10) » Fri Jul 23, 2021 5:45 am

Post by Val89 »

In post 112, Dannflor wrote:they also show they went to the lengths to meta check by BS read, which also points towards town
I'm not sure that's true. Post demonstrates they were already aware of me prior to the game, and I've only been in a small handful of games thus far. If there was any one thing you could point to that identifies my playstyle in particular, it would be the introductory semi-serious wall-shitpost, so I imagine they had already read 2068 and my other games where I do it rather than went meta diving to check the read.
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Post Post #135 (isolation #11) » Fri Jul 23, 2021 6:15 am

Post by Val89 »

Why doesn't a troll simply repeat themselves?
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Post Post #137 (isolation #12) » Fri Jul 23, 2021 6:26 am

Post by Val89 »

And I think you should answer the question rather than deflecting.
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Post Post #140 (isolation #13) » Fri Jul 23, 2021 6:35 am

Post by Val89 »

I might be legitimately accused of being many things, but I know dense isn't one of them.

I should take it then, that the answer to my question is abundantly obvious to every other player in the thread, and the reason why someone who repeats themselves is obviously wrong, and not trolling, is self-evident?

If I see evidence that is the case, then I am prepared to revisit my assumption here that you just pulled a reason for switching your vote out of your arse, and then got shifty because you don't have a good answer, but until then, I think your slot is as good place to start.

VOTE: Ythan
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Post Post #143 (isolation #14) » Fri Jul 23, 2021 6:45 am

Post by Val89 »

@Leaven: Do you think it's stupidly obvious why someone who is wrong rather than trolling wouldn't repeat themselves?
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Post Post #150 (isolation #15) » Fri Jul 23, 2021 7:05 am

Post by Val89 »

He can't defend himself against that accusation without further breaking the 'ongoing games' rule.

You should know that, being the big clever SE you are. Smells like you are taking advantage of the cred you think that buys you amongst us silly, dense newbies to play rules-lawyer.
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Post Post #155 (isolation #16) » Fri Jul 23, 2021 7:14 am

Post by Val89 »

The point is, he might not have broken the "playing against wincon" rule, but he can't legally defend himself against the accusation.

You are right, though, I've obviously misunderstood the purpose of newbie games. I didn't think they existed for the newbies to get insulted, back hand or otherwise, but I was obviously wrong on that count, too.
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Post Post #159 (isolation #17) » Fri Jul 23, 2021 7:25 am

Post by Val89 »

The why were your and posted to the game thread and not directed to the mod in PM?

If your true intent was to correct a newbie, rather than g ain some in game advantage, a quiet word with Nahdia who could have had a PM discussion with James would have been a better way to deal with it than publicly call him out on it, no?
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Post Post #180 (isolation #18) » Fri Jul 23, 2021 9:29 am

Post by Val89 »

In post 179, cowsloveSushirolls wrote:are you satisfied with the way dann explained what their vote was supposed to do?
I am more satisfied that I would have been if he had continued to insist he had a valid reason to scum read me, but to be honest, I'm not sure I follow his logic as to how I end up being town as a result; so I'm keeping my eyes out. I'm not currently scumreading the Dannflorr right now, if that's what you are asking, still null for me.

My turn to ask you a question, since Leaven didn't see, or chose not to answer - With respect to ; do YOU think it's stupidly obvious why someone who is wrong rather than trolling wouldn't repeat themselves?
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Post Post #188 (isolation #19) » Fri Jul 23, 2021 9:52 am

Post by Val89 »

In post 183, cowsloveSushirolls wrote:i mean i probably would know if the word used wasn't "trolling"
although I haven't thought of it this way trolling is a pretty strong word (lol) and I think the action of repeating themselves falls into both categories: being genuinely wrong and trolling
In other words, no, it isn't blindlingly obvious to the degree you can safely assume anyone confused is either pretending or an absolute idiot?

I'm asking because I am assuming when I asked him to explain why someone repeating themselves means they are wrong rather than trolling his response in dodging the question and insulting me was because he didn;t actually have an answer and made up an explanation on the spot that doesn;t actually hold to the lightest scrutiny. Of course, if it was as obvious as he suggests, then he had every right to call me dense and it's NAI, so I wanted to confirm in case I am being an idiot on the matter.
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Post Post #195 (isolation #20) » Fri Jul 23, 2021 12:25 pm

Post by Val89 »

In post 192, Leaven wrote:I'm not sure because I don't get the troll or the logic of the would be troll
Looks like its 3 for 3 on people who are being intentially dense, then.

StrangeMatter, ClarkBar, what say you?
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Post Post #198 (isolation #21) » Fri Jul 23, 2021 12:59 pm

Post by Val89 »

James asked Ythan a simple question:
In post 133, JamesTheNames wrote:@Ythan why did you retract the vote on me by the way?
Ythan's answer was thus:
In post 134, Ythan wrote:The post in between clarified that you're probably just wrong and not trolling. I wasn't expecting you to repeat what you had said previously.
I didn't understand this answer. The post inbetween was thus:
In post 124, JamesTheNames wrote:To get the game going.
It is not clear to me why James simply repeating what he said means he is simply 'wrong town' rather than trolling. I asked Ythan to clarify with an equally simple question, and his response was essentially to call me a fucking idiot. Now, it's possible I am indeed a fucking idiot, but the response to the people I've asked so far, including yourself Leaven, leads me to beleive its not quite that clear cut and there isn't a simple answer to the question as to how James repeating himself makes him town.

I've suggested that the reason Ythan has given such an unsatifactory (and frankly, inflamatory) answer to a simple question is that he doesn't really have an answer - James repeating himself does not make it any more or less likley he is 'wrong town' over being a troll (and probably scum), and Ythan was just making it up since he doesnt really have a townie reason for retracting his vote. I suggest that inventing nonsensical reasons for changing a vote might - but not definitively be - scummy, and I would like Ythan to actually answer the question. I am hoping that, once its clear than it is more than just me that finds his answer unsatisfactory, we might actually get an answer and that'll help up sort the Ythan slot.

Make sense now?
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Post Post #200 (isolation #22) » Fri Jul 23, 2021 1:32 pm

Post by Val89 »

I'm not calling anyone an idiot, and I'm not sure how you took that from my post. If I have given some reason for you to think that, I appologise. I don't think that about you, or anyone else who has posted.

I really don't think any of us are struggling with identifying the reason James repeating himself makes him town because we are idiots, I think we are struggling because there isn't a simple answer.

Ythans 'dense' comment was directed only at me, but if multiple people are struggling to answer the question I posed - "Why doesn't a troll simply repeat themselves?" - then I think that having to ask that question is no indication of a lack intellegence, or false intent. Rather, Ythans brashly brushing it off as if the answer was self-evident if that's not the case is perhaps an indication that he doesn't know the answer himself.
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Post Post #251 (isolation #23) » Sun Jul 25, 2021 5:09 am

Post by Val89 »

In post 204, Leaven wrote:- He's dumping this game again as VT for an even future scum game (worse than last time because of how last time went)
- This is that future game where he's scum (cashing in on the last game to take this town down)
Frankly, I agree in princible that claiming VT as early as this is an objectivley poor play as town; James obviously disagrees, but that's where I am at.

I don't see why claiming VT is good for scum though - In other words, I'm not sure; whether it's this game or a future one, how claiming VT helps a scum!James take down town. Nobody else is following his example, and a scum!James know he aint a town PR by definition.

Would you explain why you think an early VT claim as scum helps scum (I know why an early VT claim
as town
helps scum), if you think I've missed something?
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Post Post #256 (isolation #24) » Sun Jul 25, 2021 7:48 am

Post by Val89 »

In post 253, Leaven wrote:Given you agree this was "objectively poor for town", then unless you can point to activity that is more objectively bad for town, my vote lands here.
That's fine. My point was that, although it's objectively anti-town, it looks to me to be just as anti-scum, too. My question to you was 'what advantage does scum gain by an scum making an early VT claim', and since your answer has been focus on about how we should be discouraging anti-town behavior and you don't want to move your vote until you see something else anti-town, I'll take it that you can't see the advantage for scum either.

CLSR has it right - I think it's anti-scum, in that it both attracts attention to the slot; and it basically locks at least one scum out of fake claiming a PR; and I would argue that is true whether it's double goon or not.

Yes, it's anti-town. Yes, that behavior should be discouraged, and has been. I think it's just as anti-scum though, and therefore I think we should be viewing anyone using this as the main or only justifaction for a wagon on James with a little bit of suspicion.
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Post Post #257 (isolation #25) » Sun Jul 25, 2021 8:07 am

Post by Val89 »

In post 208, Salsabil Faria wrote:Val is salty for the newbie insult
I want to take a moment in case this is a more widely-held belief.

I would have come to the same conclusion if the interaction in posts through had been friendly. Perhaps it might have gone something like this:

Spoiler:
Ythan: (To James) The post in between clarified that you're probably just wrong and not trolling. I wasn't expecting you to repeat what you had said previously.


Val: Why doesn't a troll simply repeat themselves?


Ythan: I'm sorry, the answer to that is so self-evident, I don't think I need to answer.


Val: But it's not self-evident. Could you indulge me, because I don't understand it, and I think you might be deflecting.


Ythan: Sorry, old chap, I'm still not going to answer your question.


Val: Well, I think you should answer my question, because now it appears you might not actually have an answer. *Votes*


Ythan: Sorry, I still respectfully decline to answer, on account that I am an SE slot.


Other people can make the determination if they think approaching the interaction in the mocking way they did is AI. I don't. I take issue with the content, not the tone. Dodging a perfectly reasonable question, that it has become clear other slots can't think of an obvious answer to, on your justification for having switched your vote seems scummy to me, regardless of if you are an arsehole about doing it or not.
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Post Post #260 (isolation #26) » Sun Jul 25, 2021 8:24 am

Post by Val89 »

In post 258, Ythan wrote:Except I did answer clearly and immediately and you're just whining still to fill time.
Would you link me to the post where you did so?

If I am being a total idiot here, and I've just missed a post where you answered, I will owe you a full apology.
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Post Post #261 (isolation #27) » Sun Jul 25, 2021 8:31 am

Post by Val89 »

In post 259, Leaven wrote:I'm going to go hard at antitown behavior and doing it doubly so to make it known that I will go hard against anyone who harms town for either scummy or personal gain over pro-town wincon reasons.
I'll ask again: Could you please explain what that scummy gain is?

It's a serious question, because I can't see it; and if there is some pro-scum advantage gained by it, then I am willing to accept James might have done it previously in order to lay the groundwork to do it with less suspicion when he does roll scum, and I will reconsider joining that wagon. As it stands, I can't see how it's not screwing a scum!James over and much as it does town.
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Post Post #275 (isolation #28) » Sun Jul 25, 2021 10:21 am

Post by Val89 »

In post 272, cowsloveSushirolls wrote:
In post 270, Ythan wrote:I made a snap vote to him because ridiculous scummy behavior but then switched back when I came to believe he might be genuine albeit foolish.
this helped, thanks
I know I will just get called names again if I ask, so you can explain what you understand about how Ythan came to beleive he might be genuine albeit foolish on the basis that he repeated himself, so if you still don't get it yourself, ask him to explain?

That's the only issue I have here - he said he decided he foolish rather than trolling because he repeated himself; and if you know why repeating yourself helps disingush between the two, then maybe we can put this to bed finally.
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Post Post #276 (isolation #29) » Sun Jul 25, 2021 10:25 am

Post by Val89 »

In post 274, Leaven wrote:it should be even easier for you to accept that I have no choice but to hard-vote against this indefensible anti-town behavior (absent a better option) to prevent it from happening.
So, this
is
a policy thing, rather than you thinking there is an actual scum advantage to scum claiming VT early?

I can understand that.
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Post Post #293 (isolation #30) » Mon Jul 26, 2021 3:16 am

Post by Val89 »

I thank you very much for your attempt at trying to explain this, CLSR, but I don't think you've managed to solve the mystery for us yet since you actually ended up with the opposite conclusion to the one Ythan made.
In post 289, cowsloveSushirolls wrote:therefore a troll will repeat themselves so that they can continue to call to attention their posts
In post 134, Ythan wrote:I wasn't expecting you to repeat what you had said previously.
You conclude that a troll will repeat themselves, but Ythan implies he finds James is 'wrong town' and
not
a troll because he repeats himself.

And the fact we are still here, with this confusion, after your post and Ythan rephrasing and everything else that's happened on this is exactly my point. Ythans response to my question was that I was "being intentionally dense." I take that to mean 'the answer is so self-evident, you can't really be this stupid, and so you are play acting as not knowing the answer'.

If it takes all this, and we are still not clear in understanding how Ythan can use James repeating himself as evidence he was genuine, then was the answer really self-evident? I think clearly not, and the follow up question I am trying to solve is ‘Why does somebody try and shut a question as to their motivations' , and frankly I can't find a town reasoning for it.

The reason why I am pushing this is as I am, CLSR, is because If you have read all the way through 2068, you will remember I had a bit of a disagreement with NorweigianboyEE about a read on James (of all things!) and he gave me an explanation I didn't follow, and when I tried to follow it up, he also shut me down with the "Ok, newb." attitude. When I came back to it and said I was starting to scumlean that slot, the attitude got more pronounced (he was 'tired of spoon feeding' me, etc) whilst simultaneously posting on the scum PT that "Val could be troublesome." and suggesting I be NK'd, which is what happened. Now, in this game, I have a slot doing the same thing HARDER, and in the absence of evidence to the contrary, I'm going to consider it scummy in the same way I did previously.
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Post Post #301 (isolation #31) » Mon Jul 26, 2021 6:04 am

Post by Val89 »

Fair enough, but I think the only sensible conclusion we can take from this discussion has to be "actually, nobody really knows what Ythan was saying"; which is why I find his acting as though it was extremely obvious - to the degree he say I was being "intentionally dense" - and his brushing it off as though nobody could realisitically find anything in it that would be helpful in sorting a slot, as something worthy of attention.

Do you think he honestly thought his meaning was ridiculously obvious?
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Post Post #303 (isolation #32) » Mon Jul 26, 2021 6:12 am

Post by Val89 »

I tried asking him directly - twice. You saw the result.
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Post Post #308 (isolation #33) » Mon Jul 26, 2021 7:16 am

Post by Val89 »

^^ Would you consider her to be a bit scummy if her answer to that is "lol, that's obvious" then refused to answer it when you told her it wasn't?
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Post Post #313 (isolation #34) » Mon Jul 26, 2021 7:30 am

Post by Val89 »

In post 310, Ythan wrote: No I'd like for you to answer that question if you don't mind.
^^ Answer: Yes, would.
In post 311, Ythan wrote:So now you're trying to convince me I'm scum? Performative. Disingenuous. Scum.
...but you you DARE consider me scummy for doing exactly the same thing, else you are performative, disingenous and scum.

I think this speaks for itself.
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Post Post #324 (isolation #35) » Mon Jul 26, 2021 9:58 am

Post by Val89 »

In post 317, JamesTheNames wrote:
In post 306, Salsabil Faria wrote:
Boooooooooooooooooooooooooooriiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiinnnnnngggggggg

If you have time, check my meta, will see how townie I am all the time :giggle:
Until I replaced into 2064, you were basically a consensus scum in that game. So this is incorrect.
You might be overselling this one a bit James. Given the "will see how townie I am all the time" comment came in response to Leaven suggesting that a refusal to vote you for your VT claim is laying a red carpet for scummy behavoir - I
think
she might actually have been saying in a sarcastic manner "I've been known to do scummy things as town myself", not "I'm always read as town".

In any case, her ISO in that game before you replaced her is literally 6 posts, and I think "consensus scum" is a wildly overstating the matter. I wasn't in that game, but reading it back quickly it looks like there were 3 slots expressing mild reservations about Salsabil, which had translated into one vote, at the point you replaced in.

This isn't to say that Salsabil hasn't done things that do warrant attention in this game. I'm still trying to get my head around what her CCing your VT claim means for her alignment; I literally don't know where to start with that one, which is why I haven't approached it until now; but I don't think that comment and the 2064 game are going to be helpful in sorting her.
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Post Post #369 (isolation #36) » Tue Jul 27, 2021 4:50 am

Post by Val89 »

In post 277, JamesTheNames wrote:Hello. I'll be catching up when I wake up. cowsloveSushirolls is scum. I'll explain why when I wake up.
James, do you have any plans to come back to this?
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Post Post #425 (isolation #37) » Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:50 am

Post by Val89 »

In post 415, Ythan wrote:He said he did it in another game and got speedwagonned so he's going to try it again.
This is the problem I have with this play. To be clear, that "another game" is ongoing. It's public, you can find it, you can read it, you can form your own opinions of what James did or did not do in that one; but what we clearly can not do it discuss it. I was hoping we had moved on from this, but here we are again.

Ythan feels like it's ok to challange people about the rules, while also lobbing in comments like he might have been 'playing against his wincon', and the above statement, which have clear negative connotations. The rest of us, who may or may not have a different opinion, including James himself, know that if we do want to stay on the right side of the rules, we just have to sit here, watch him do, and bit our tounges.

I don't think this should be fair game, and I don't agree that people should be calling my feeling this way "gross", either, frankly.
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Post Post #534 (isolation #38) » Fri Jul 30, 2021 4:18 am

Post by Val89 »

Nothing that happened at the end of yesterday makes me rethink the conclusion I came to yesterday, or that I was in anyway on the wrong track.

VOTE: Ythan
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Post Post #567 (isolation #39) » Sat Jul 31, 2021 2:15 am

Post by Val89 »

CLSR, would you mind explaining what you meant by 'huge' in your post ?
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Post Post #570 (isolation #40) » Sat Jul 31, 2021 4:10 am

Post by Val89 »

In post 568, cowsloveSushirolls wrote:by "huge" i mean "this is super important"
Yeah, that's what I took it to mean. I asked, because I kinda expected after you decided something was 'super important' that there would be some follow up.

I asked directly, because I thought there was an outside possiblity you might have meant it was "super-important" with regards to my own alignment rather than Ythan's; which while I can't see how that would work, it would at least make some sense given your readslist today, but no - your answer seems to be 'It was superimportant because I understood why you considered what Ythan did as scummy, whereas I wasn't before'.

There are two ways you could take that, either "I see where Val is coming from, now, but while I don't agree with it, I can understand why someone would say that", or else "Actually, I think that's a decent argument and I buy it". Neither of those conclusions tie with the fact you have come out today TRing Ythan and SRing me.

There are a few other things that have pinged me about the CLSR slot, but I'm heading out for a bit now so it'll have to wait til I get back before I point them all out, but to answer your question, Leaven - in a word - CowsLoveSushiRolls.
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Post Post #571 (isolation #41) » Sat Jul 31, 2021 4:19 am

Post by Val89 »

Sorry, I didn't actually answer your question, CLSR. I'm scumleaning your slot right now, but since I'm not confident in that read, I'll assume the question is being asked in good faith, and the answer will help others in any case.

In short - No, because the "discredit attempt" if you want to call it that WASN'T aimed at defending their scummybuddy (T3), and I don't see how you came to that conclusion. I'll give a fully answer when I return if you need one, but it was less a discredit attempt and more an attitude of "You are a newbie and I'm SE, so I don't actually need to answer your questions", and it was because he didn't really have an answer to the questions I was asking; and he felt like he couldn't just say "I don't have an answer" as scum.
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Post Post #577 (isolation #42) » Sat Jul 31, 2021 6:44 am

Post by Val89 »

In post 573, cowsloveSushirolls wrote:i'll admit that i'm choosing a weird hill to die on but given my own observations and the fact that the most comprehensive case on him is based on a pattern from past games the townread just stays until i get that reading done
Well, I can buy your explaination at least. Have you explained why you've come to townread him? I can't see anything with a quick scroll through the ISO, and I'm not tunnelled deeply enough not to acknoeldge I might be particularly sensitive given it was might slot that was the target for the behavior I found scummy.
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Post Post #597 (isolation #43) » Sun Aug 01, 2021 11:29 pm

Post by Val89 »

I'm reading Leavens as "Here are all the people who are, or might vote Ythan now, and here are all the people who are/might vote GE", and concludes that a Ythan lim requires "both strange AND dannflor" and that a GE lim requires "only one of strange OR dann.", on the assumption that CLSR will always vote for GE and not Ythan, and GE/Ythan will vote for the other.

I think the intent is to suggest that it'll be easier to achieve a GE lim today than it would be a Ythan one, and it's odd because...well, Strange is already voting Ythan, no?

In any case, even if Leaven hadn't noticed that, it does ping me slightly that someone is going to the effort of presenting details on which of the two wagons in motion with be easiest to push to a elimination this early in the day, even if the analysis is correct. I'm not sure how it helps - maybe if there was any danger of there not being a concensus and a resulting mislim, but I don't think we are anywhere near that yet.
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Post Post #598 (isolation #44) » Mon Aug 02, 2021 1:17 am

Post by Val89 »

Resulting nolim*
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Post Post #616 (isolation #45) » Mon Aug 02, 2021 11:31 pm

Post by Val89 »

In post 600, Leaven wrote:Before Dann pulled his vote, it looked like 5 out of 7 had gamma in top 2.
I saw this, and thought I must have missed something. GE isn't going to have themselves as scum, and I know I haven't come out and said I think GE (or Clark) is scum; so if that were true that means every other player still alive must have at some point said they think GE is in the top 2 scum slots; and the only person I actually remember doing so was CLSR, so if I missed significant scum reads from the 4 remaining players - SM, Ythan, Dannflor, and Leaven; I'm obviously not paying much attention to this game and need to reevaluate.

I've looked back, and I can't actually see this - Ythan doesn't appear to weigh in on the GE slot; I'm not seeing any mention of GE from SM either. It's also specifically noted "Before Dann pulled his vote", but this 'tally' came after that, and I think it's clear that Dann has re-evaluated on GE. That leaves Leaven himself, and he notes:
In post 600, Leaven wrote:but a collective first impression hitting 5 for 5 is very compelling to me from a purely statistical perspective. This town is already working uphill against two self votes, including a self hammer. I obviously can't be sure, but it just seems likeliest and talking myself out of it would just be fancy play syndrome.
In other words, he thinks GE is likely to be scum because of this 'consensus scum' thing, rather than having a scum case against him himself (at least, not one that's been publicly stated). So that literally leaves CLSR. When you look into it, Leaven is suggesting that GE is a consensus scum, all the town thinks he is scummy, and therefore he might as well hop on that wagon too, because
CLSR voted for him
. That's quite a leap. It's dressed up in a lot of words, and has to be, because when you actually look into it, the conclusion obviously doesn't stand.
In post 615, Dannflor wrote:I don't think Leaven's #600 makes much sense to write from a scum perspective
It does to me, if scum!Leaven is looking for a reason to jump on a wagon towards a second town mislim, but doesn't have enough reasons to justify it, waffling up that they are somehow a scum consensus, and literally every townie thinks GE is scum is a good way to do that; if it flips green, he just throws his hands up and says "hey, everyone else thought he was scum too, look at my post 600; you can't argue with statistics!". Hell, my first thought was to buy it and assume I had missed some big reason why GE must actually be scum and I was barking up the wrong tree, it wasn't until I actually looked closely at it that it started to fall apart. Perhaps he was banking on us not doing the work, there; or if we did, he can wave it away as a 'mistake' now; like (although he hasn't directly addressed this yet) he must not have noticed SM was voting Ythan in his first tally and we are to assume that was just carelessness.

In short, I think Leavens scum equity is rising now for me, too.
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Post Post #618 (isolation #46) » Tue Aug 03, 2021 4:05 am

Post by Val89 »

Leaven, simple question, why are you scumreading GE?

I took your 600 to mean you were almost SR that slot by default, so to speak, but since I pointed out how the analysis that "5 out of 7" was total crap, you posted another bunch of something I'm having difficulty following, but I think is supposed to be some sort of VCA on the Salsa wagon assuming that a group of players, including one of the scummiest slots in the thread to my eyes are somehow town with no justification.

At this point, I think it's clear you are implying strongly that you think GE is scum, but I'm somewhat confused as to how you arrived there. At least CLSR has given some justification, even if I'm not convinced by it.
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Post Post #635 (isolation #47) » Tue Aug 03, 2021 9:10 pm

Post by Val89 »

In post 619, Leaven wrote:I'll state it again and let each of those 5 dispute:
Leaven
My question was WHY Leaven is scumreading GE. I've only seen CLSR attempt to give a justification so far.

If the answer is "because 4 other slots at one time or other were shading the slot" then fair enough, but can you confirm that for us?
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Post Post #644 (isolation #48) » Wed Aug 04, 2021 7:24 am

Post by Val89 »

In post 636, Leaven wrote:So Val, are you 100 percent ruling out Gamma as scum here?
I'm not 100 percent on any of my reads, but I think Gamma is town here, and I've seen no case from anyone that's made me reconsider so far.

I wasn't on the salsa wagon, but that is because it happened so fast and was done and dusted while I was offline, so I didn't get a chance to evaluate if I considered it to have merit. Looking back, though, I think what was presented against Salsa was a reasonable case for that stage of the game, and while I felt Ythan was scummier, I can see why town!Gamma casts that vote. I don't think anyone was expecting it to result in a self hammer as quick as it did, and the only thing I find really suspicious about how that wagon went was Ythan putting her in hammer range without announcing it.

Ultimately, I think the if you accept Sala was the 'easy' mislim yesterday, with her flipping Town, the makes Gamma the easy mislim today, if you were scum trying to chain one into another, and I find the reasons Gamma gave yesterday for voting Salsa more compelling, even knowing the flip, than I do "well, he pushed a mislim wagon" in isolation, and I'm starting to consider Leaven more likley scum for pushing that on that basis.

I'm still much more sure Ythan is flipping red than anyone else at this point though. I thought he was scummy as hell yesterday, the unannounced E-1 was another ping, and then he has spent the day straight up lurking.
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Post Post #708 (isolation #49) » Thu Aug 05, 2021 12:21 am

Post by Val89 »

In post 661, Leaven wrote:Leaven - Gamma (2nd Strange)

...

I may be wrong, but I'm assuming one of Ythan or Val likes you for scum over me, and despite you voting me, I'm risking myself to save townStrange.
Am I misunderstanding something here? It reads to me like Leaven is saying they have decided its likley one of themselves or SM is flipping today, and by not joining the SM wagon, he is risking himself being the flip to save a town!SM.

Then he has SM as his second choice for a vote if not Gamma?

Leaven, there are two scum outstanding. Even if you think Gamma has higher scum equity than SM when considered either/or, why have you ruled out them as a pair, and how you tally up the facts you are telling us you are prepared to sacrifice yourself to save SM, and have SM as your backup wagon?
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Post Post #711 (isolation #50) » Thu Aug 05, 2021 2:15 am

Post by Val89 »

To be completely clear, now you are at E-1, you are claiming cop, with a guilty on Gamma?
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Post Post #743 (isolation #51) » Thu Aug 05, 2021 8:26 am

Post by Val89 »

In post 736, Dannflor wrote:sorry for my hastiness before I was mostly just trying to squash any "well what if leaven is lying" paranoias without proper proof
Sure you weren't TMI'ing that you knew the Gamma guilty was legit, and there would be no CC?

I know you've been very quick to quickly spash that you think one of me (previously one of your highest townreads) and SM look good for gammas partner, but for myself, its actually your (dannflor) interactions with the slot that look the worst to me.

I wanted to get that out there now before the lock.
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Post Post #746 (isolation #52) » Thu Aug 05, 2021 8:28 am

Post by Val89 »

Well, dann saying that gives a least a little hope I'll survive the night at least. I'll take it.
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Post Post #757 (isolation #53) » Thu Aug 05, 2021 8:37 am

Post by Val89 »

Nobody is seeing it, because there is nothing, and Dann also knows he will 100 percent be alive tomorrow.

Anyway, everyone has a night phase to look at the interactions between Dann and Gamma and decide if I am talking out my arse or not.
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Post Post #760 (isolation #54) » Thu Aug 05, 2021 8:39 am

Post by Val89 »

In post 751, cowsloveSushirolls wrote: the james nightkill makes absolutely zero sense if it's not C1. you can't PR read that guy
Maybe I'm being a big dummy, but I don't see how that follows at all.
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Post Post #768 (isolation #55) » Thu Aug 05, 2021 8:45 am

Post by Val89 »

I'll be honest, I think CSLR just said something rather silly, in that we have to be in C1, and Dannflor just jumped on it in an "huh, that's obvious" kinda way to perpetuate that mis-idea.

I think if you think about it a bit more, you will see why the James NK tells us nothing about the number of PRs.
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Post Post #773 (isolation #56) » Thu Aug 05, 2021 9:01 am

Post by Val89 »

In post 772, cowsloveSushirolls wrote:"james was NKed not because of the possibility that they were a PR that claimed VT d1, but because they were universally townread by the end of d1."
In the world we are in colloum C, scum would also have to take into account there might be a JK, and on n1, the 'universal townread' might not be the best target.

I'm continuing to talk because I think if Dann is Gammas partner, he does have to decide whether to keep me alive so he can push me tomorrow, or NK me, and if he does decide to NK me so I dont go making the full scum case, I want to make sure I've said this.


Dannflor should also be one to know that, if there is a doctor to save Leaven, that puts us in A1, and the chance of Leaven actually having a result tomorrow is approximately zero, so that post about "if there is a doc, these are good targets for Leaven" feels performative.
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Post Post #774 (isolation #57) » Thu Aug 05, 2021 9:02 am

Post by Val89 »

In post 771, Dannflor wrote:every post you make about the setup gives scum more information in the case that it's not c1
Scum already know the setup, 100 percent, C1 or not.

You must know that. Why this post?
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Post Post #778 (isolation #58) » Thu Aug 05, 2021 9:27 am

Post by Val89 »

In post 776, Dannflor wrote:
what possible reason could speculating about the setup be bad considering scum know what world we're in?
Exactly my point; and yet you are telling us to shut up, because we will give information away that scum already know...
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Post Post #810 (isolation #59) » Sun Aug 08, 2021 11:21 am

Post by Val89 »

So, we have started the day with Dannflor starting the day by saying he is waiting for me to chime in before he does so, but asks Ythan for his thoughts, and the follow up makes clear the important thoughts are the ones on my slot. When those thoughts are that Ythan never really thought I was scummy, the next thing is Dann saying he is townreading me again.

Is there any way to take that interaction other than a scum Dannflor testing the waters, there? What town reason would there be for Dann withholding until I come online?

It's a serious question, because I thought Dann's scum equity shot up in a big way after Leaven gave his result; and I made so secret of the fact in the twilight phase yesterday. It seems the defining feature about my slot is that I was the one that was SR Dannflor by the end of yesterday. Even if it's a case of "I want everyone else to check in before I go", I can quite obviously see how that benefits scum, I don't see what advantage town players get by doing so.
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Post Post #828 (isolation #60) » Mon Aug 09, 2021 12:32 am

Post by Val89 »

Asks Ythan for his thoughts on the game; makes clear he is really interesting on his thoughts on my slot. Ythan: "Val wasn't ever really scummy"; Dann: "I'm tentatively town reading Val again"

Asks SM for their reads; "Right now I think it's between you and Val"; Dann: *wallposts*, "okay Im leaning back towards val as scum lol".

Like, what??

Call it one-dimensional thinking if want, but I can't see this as a natural progression at all. To answer your question, SM, what I ment by 'withholding' is that Dann's entrance today with the 'I'm not going to say what I am thinking until Val says what he is thinking', and the play we have seen today looks an awful lot like Danns reads and pushes are predicated much more on who thinks he might be able to muster votes against, and who might still be townreading him and thus a candidate to keep alive if a scum!Dann makes it to ELO, than it does who he actually thinks is scummy; and thus he holds stuff back or flip-flops until he gets the info he needs to read the room.

VOTE: Dannflor
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Post Post #829 (isolation #61) » Mon Aug 09, 2021 12:51 am

Post by Val89 »

In post 812, Dannflor wrote:I need to see if you've also been thinking about things through the night and if so where those thoughts have led you
Translation: You were pushing Ythan most of day 1 and 2; and then scumread me at the end of day 2. I need to see if you still scumread me now on D3 before I can make a decision about who is best to push today, and who I want to keep alive for ELO.
In post 826, Dannflor wrote:val can you help me understand where your reads of me and ythan lie and who you think is more likely to be scum

did ythan do something remarkably towny or are you just that sure I'm scum after yesterday
Translation: I really need an answer to that question, Val. Might I be able to convince you to vote Ythan today after all, since you obviously thought they were scum at some point?

Well, I think I've just staked out my claim pretty clearly with that vote, Dann, so feel free to push away.
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Post Post #848 (isolation #62) » Mon Aug 09, 2021 6:20 am

Post by Val89 »

Looks less 'waffle waffle fencesitty testing the waters' and more "oh, looks like Leaven is going the SM route after all."
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Post Post #852 (isolation #63) » Mon Aug 09, 2021 6:41 am

Post by Val89 »

I'm just calling what I see, Dannflor.
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Post Post #855 (isolation #64) » Mon Aug 09, 2021 7:00 am

Post by Val89 »

In post 718, Dannflor wrote:leaven probably dies tonight which leaves:

StrangeMatter
Val890
cowsloveSushirolls
Ythan

as possible Gamma partners
Speaking of subminal; anyone ever figured out what in the hell this post was? That is basically saying in a roundabout way "eveyone but me can be gamma's partner", right?
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Post Post #859 (isolation #65) » Mon Aug 09, 2021 7:41 am

Post by Val89 »

In post 858, Dannflor wrote:you'll notice i continued my train of thought by eliminating cowslovesushi as a gamma partner and saying ythan was less likely as a partner
No, I don't notice that at all. I'm looking at your ISO in another tab, and that simply doesn't happen. In fact, I see you say, after some discussion, "it actually might just be ythan here but I'll deal with that tomorrow" - I might be wrong, but I took that to mean you were saying he was a likley partner, not a less likely partner.

What I do notice, and it's screamed loudly enough to override any doubts I have about Ythan, given there is only one scum remaining, is this. 3 out of the 4 names on that list could have CC'd Leavens cop claim. To that list, you can also add Gamma himself.

4 slots that could have potentially CC'd Leavens cop claim, and you didn't wait to hear from any of them. I think my might well have indicated that I had some doubts about the claim, because a fake cop claim is
exactly
what you would have expected from a scum!Leaven at that point. We all now it wasn't a scum Leaven now, and the claim was legit, but Dannflor knew, and was confident in that, before 4 other slots had said anything on the matter at all.

I don't buy his explanation for it in either. He suggests the alternative explanations to just being Gamma's partner and knowing leaven had a legit guilty are: having a PR read on Leaven, or being the possible doctor, or not wanting people to give away too much information.

I don't think ANY of those reasons for assuming a Cop claim from a (at the time) widley regarded as sus player who has just been forced to claim at E-1 and is claiming a guilty on a slot you had not long before placed 2nd highest in your list of townreads; is not going to be counter claimed when 3 slots are yet to check in and another slot is implying doubts about the claim, even if you were expecting there to be a Tracker or Cop claim at somepoint. That 3rd on is just straight up bull crap and makes no sense anyway. If I am to assume you didn't know the guilty was legit because you aren't Gamma's partner, then I have to assume you took a huge risk, TMI'd something else and then the real scum partner read that over night, miss it, and decided to kill CLSR over you anyhow.

I then have to buy all the other stuff to explain your play today, too; and its all just too much co-incidence to ask for me to assume to arrive at other conclusion than you are scum.

Sorry, but that's how it is.
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Post Post #867 (isolation #66) » Mon Aug 09, 2021 11:57 am

Post by Val89 »

In post 864, Dannflor wrote:I mean why were you leaning Val in the first place

Why is SM town?
Are you still trying to figure out if Leavens thought processes are natural, or whatever "not fishing" excuse you used for asking these questions to the other slots?

Let me help you out, Dann. He is town.
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Post Post #873 (isolation #67) » Tue Aug 10, 2021 6:30 am

Post by Val89 »

In post 871, Leaven wrote:Val, how confident are you on your dan vote over SM or ythan?
Very. If this was an ELO between Dann and either of those two, I would bet the game on it.

I was susing Ythan because of his attitude, which he described today as me "annoying" him, by asking him to justify his statements regarding his read/play around James D1. As I pointed out earlier in I think that attitude offers plenty of space for scum to hide in, and has proven to be utilised by scum in my previous game. Add the unannounced E-1 on Salsa, and the lurking in the bulk of D2, and I was fairly confident Ythan was scum in absence of other information about who the partner could be. I felt he was the scummiest in isolation. I had my doubts about CLSR before his flip mostly because he seemed to be going through quite the mental gymnastics to hold on to an underexplained town read on Ythan in face of that scumminess, but I accept now that he was probably correct.
In post 872, Leaven wrote:For people not sus of gamma, it seems that him flipping red would lead to massive overhauls of thinking about the game, but im not seeing that evolution really.
On the contrary, while Ythan seemed individually scummiest, when Gamma flipped red, Danns reaction to that, and the ability to go back and re-read the interactions between Dannflor and Clarkbar/Gamma, and Gamma and Ythan knowing Gamma was one of the two scum makes me think Ythan is much less likely to be scum, and Dannflorr much much more likely.

We are in A1. You were roleblocked. Unless you are lying about that, and I see no reason for you to ever do so, then we are in A1, end of story. Danns' came AFTER you outed you had no result, and I have no idea why he is continuing to pretend he doesn't know what setup we are in, and say things like "I think all of scum's night kills tend to point towards C1" when the N1 kill told us absolutely jackshit about the number or type of PRs, except maybe that scum thought James might be WIFOMing a PR claim with his D1 antics, and the N2 kill told we were NOT in C1, else they would have killed you, Leaven.

This is important, because the remaining scum is the roleblocker. That means, if scum were going to do any busing early, I think they would have chosen to do it with the RBer bussing Gamma, not the other way around. In that light, I think Gammas push on Ythan, as well as being an now-obvious attempt to latch on to my concerns/pocket me (which was somewhat successful, to be frank), also mean that a scum!Ythan is much less likely. Now look at Danns' interaction with Gamma when he replaced in. D2, before your outing of the guilty, Gamma is suddenly a lot townier than he remembers D1, and is up there on his second highest town read tier behind me and CLSR. It's true I was townreading Gamma myself, but I had done basically all the way through. Dann is try to sell us that he thought Gamma was scummy enough to be worthy of his vote D1, he still wanted to be the second vote on the Gamma wagon early D2, but had a change of heart to make him a high townread somewhere between Gammas ISO posts 63 and 78. I've tried reading through them with the lens as someone who doesn't know Gamma is scum, but who was scumreading him and see if there is anything there that could realistically make someone go "Hmm, perhaps he is town after all", and I can't see it. I think the scum team decided that as more and more people were expressing disquiet about how Leaven was pushing the Gamma slot (now explained as having a guilty he didn't want to out if he didn't have to), they decided it wasn't necessary to bus; hence:
In post 637, Dannflor wrote:the competing wagons should really be like SM and leaven right now

not this GE/Ythan crap
I've explained already why I am 99% percent confident Danns' play on the Gamma guilty reveal points to him being his partner rather than the other explanations he is trying to suggest, and his response to that was "Yeah it’s just SM". You can read into that as you will.
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Post Post #895 (isolation #68) » Tue Aug 10, 2021 10:14 am

Post by Val89 »

Yeah, you vote me here. If both our town PRs suspect me, there is zero world you take me to ELO.
VOTE: Val89
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Post Post #896 (isolation #69) » Tue Aug 10, 2021 10:19 am

Post by Val89 »

Well, technically speaking, it's only the fact that Leaven suspects me that means I have to go today. If you don't hit scum today, Dann gets NK'd.

If it's SM, and we vote SM, fine, gg; but if its not; D3 is Me, Leaven and scum!Ythan, and Leaven votes me, so scum!Ythan wins. Same logic applies voting Ythan over me today. You have to lim me.
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Post Post #898 (isolation #70) » Tue Aug 10, 2021 10:38 am

Post by Val89 »

From your perspective, Leaven deciding from You and SM is probably no different.

From my perspective, the only thing I know for sure is that I am town, and if Leaven is going to vote me in a D3 ELO that's a town loss; whomever I am left with.

Even if he flips a coin on you v SM, then 50/50 still looks like better odds of a town win then the alternative; which is that I am 90% sure he votes for me and loses.
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Post Post #903 (isolation #71) » Wed Aug 11, 2021 2:32 am

Post by Val89 »

The biggest plus for a town Ythan is the assocatives with Gamma - Although Gamma ended up not voting the Salsa wagon, like I said, I don't anyone, even Gamma themselves, could have predicted how quick that wagon took off and resulted in a lim. If the Salsa wagon didn't take off, then it was clear Gamma was lining up on Ythan as his secondary push; and he would probably have had to follow through on that to avoid looking suspicious.

It could well be that he was just straight up trying to pocket me and didn't actually expect it to ever take off, but Ythan was starting to take a bit of heat from elsewhere, and that would have been the Goon bussing the RBer, which like I said earlier, I am not sure would have been a good play for scum at that point.

This is the difficulty I have here - you look at Ythans ISO, it reads scummy. You look at Gammas ISO knowing he is a Mafia Goon in an A1 game, and Ythan looks town.

If you made me pick between the two, I would lim Strangematter, but it is a close one and I am not confident of it at all. Thats why I think you need to lim me today, because to my eyes there is a reasonable chance we lim SM and the game doesn't end. I consider Ythan to be more likley town that SM, but that's based entirely on assocatives with Gamma.
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Post Post #904 (isolation #72) » Wed Aug 11, 2021 2:48 am

Post by Val89 »

Think of it this way: We have an advantage today that we don't normally have, in that there is one optimal play for scum if the game continues, that is obvious and independant of who scum is, and that is to Roleblock you and NK Dannflor. To do anything else would be silly. As such, we basically KNOW what the game state will be tomorrow, today; which is an advantage I've not had in any previous games.

The game tomorrow will be you deciding between Me and one of Ythan or SM; or else it'll be you deciding between Ythan or SM.

I also know something that you don't - that I am town. I understand you can't take my word for it, and I am not asking you to. You have also indicated that you find me scummy, and thought at least immeadately after the Dann PR claim that I should be the lim. Communicating that is to your credit, because it allows me to use the knowledge I have to game out the possibilities.

It comes down to this:

If there is any possibilty you would vote me tomorrow given the choice of Me v Ythan; town will lose.
If there is any possibility you would vote me tomorrow given the choice of Me v SM; town will lose.

I KNOW that, it's a hundred percent guarentee. You don't know that, and you can't take my word for it - there is a chance that I am scum and I am WIFOMing the fact I want to be mislimmed today and this is some big game, and secretly I am praying it buys me enough towncred that I
don't
actually get the two votes I know need to get my own elimination; but the ironic beauty of this is that, even if so, you vote me
for that
reason, and I get what I want anyway.

You and Dannflor are confirmed town, and we can squeeze this anti-scum manoureve though on our own if we have to. The easiest path to scum victory is hope we mislim the town of {Ythan, SM} today, and then wait for you to vote me tomorrow. From your perspective, voting for me today can achieve two things - We can take that away from them, AND you get to flip someone you obviously think is pretty scummy which to your eyes must mean a good chance of just ending the game today. It should be a no-brainer.
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Post Post #907 (isolation #73) » Wed Aug 11, 2021 6:18 am

Post by Val89 »

The only thing to take in to consideration is that basically your (Leaven) opinion, and thus your vote, is essentially the only on that is going to matter tomorrow. You are conftown, so the two remaining non-confirmed players will cross vote/push each other. It's a bit of a shitty deal, but you got it. As such, I suggest keeping what you think about Ythan v SM fairly close to your chest today, because scum is going to decide how to play today based on if they think they win the Ythan V SM matchup tomorrow.

Ythan, Strangematter; what do you think about voting me today?
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Post Post #908 (isolation #74) » Wed Aug 11, 2021 6:19 am

Post by Val89 »

The other thing*
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Post Post #911 (isolation #75) » Wed Aug 11, 2021 7:06 am

Post by Val89 »

In post 909, Ythan wrote:I believe I have already answered this and recently.
You asked me what my plan was supposed to accomplish, and when I explained, your response was "Hm."

That wasn't much of an answer, so I figured I would ask again following said explanation.
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Post Post #916 (isolation #76) » Wed Aug 11, 2021 8:38 am

Post by Val89 »

In post 915, StrangeMatter wrote:As for Val89 voting himself, it to me seems like a gamble to get people off if they are scum. If I'm assuming what I think Val89 is assuming about specifically Leaven, I can see why he would do that as Town.
So, are you planning to vote for me today, or not?

That answer smells awefully fencesitty...
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Post Post #919 (isolation #77) » Wed Aug 11, 2021 8:48 am

Post by Val89 »

In post 917, StrangeMatter wrote:@Leaven do you have specific reads and reasons for those reads so far?
As I explained in my previous post; how a scum!SM approaches today, and particulary whether they endorse or poo-poo limming me today depends entirely on whether they think they will win the Ythan V SM matchup tomorrow.

Fensesitting on my plan, then asking Leaven exactly this question is precisely what a scum!SM needs to do here.

I suggest, Leaven, that you do NOT answer SM here; until he has given a proper indication on his thoughts about limming me today.
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Post Post #920 (isolation #78) » Wed Aug 11, 2021 8:50 am

Post by Val89 »

Thier* thoughts. Sorry.
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Post Post #925 (isolation #79) » Wed Aug 11, 2021 10:25 am

Post by Val89 »

How confident in that are you, Dann?

I'm still basically 50/50; with a razor thin margin towards SM.

As such, this is how I propose we play this - You (Dann) vote me. If either of Ythan or SM hammer me, you take that as a straight up scum claim.

You then outline your case against Ythan, and Leaven asks you any questions he has; once he has asked you all he wants to, and is he knows how he wants to vote between SM and Ythan, he hammers me.

That way, the slot leaven is almost guarenteed to mislim in ELO is flipped and scum loses that victory path, and he gets the benefit of playing the ELO today with your input. I submit that is the best way to a town victory in these circumstances.
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Post Post #927 (isolation #80) » Wed Aug 11, 2021 10:35 am

Post by Val89 »

I don't expect him to hammer my slot; but if he did, it would be obviously because he wanted to end the day before Dann gets a chance to outline his case - hence it would be a scum claim.

I wouldn't expect you to hammer my slot either while Dann is outlining a case against Ythan, but I put that out there so both of you know not to go and get any funny ideas that could ruin it.
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Post Post #969 (isolation #81) » Thu Aug 12, 2021 2:03 pm

Post by Val89 »

Something I didn't give much thought over, given I was pretty sure Dann was scum coming in to today is why CLSR?

I thought Dann was more likley scum rather than the Doc, despite what he was throwing at me, because I thought it pretty unlikely they wouldn't have NKd Dann on N2 if he wasn't town since scum were obviously wanting to take out the Doc on N2.

I've been looking, and I don't see a reason why scum would start think CLSR was more likley to be the doc. Maybe they took the "we are in C1" business as some sort of attempt to deflect from fact they knew it was actually A1, but Dann endorsed the same, and if scum were looking at that through those eyes, I think they would have figured Dann was softing doc there, so that doesn't work.

So, I'm wondering what other reason there is to pick CSLR there. He was scumreading me early on D2, but before the Gamma guilty, he has also said "Val maybe town" and was also pretty clear he didn't think Gamma/Val was a thing. He was also townreading Ythan pretty hard, to the degree I was starting to get a bit sus of him. He ended the day with his vote on SM.

Conclusion: it looks to me like the CLSR kill is pointing to SM, although I wonder if its a bit too obvious. He was certainly the biggest threat to a scum!SM.
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Post Post #974 (isolation #82) » Fri Aug 13, 2021 5:47 am

Post by Val89 »

In post 898, Val89 wrote:Even if he flips a coin on [Ythan] v SM, then 50/50 still looks like better odds of a town win then the alternative; which is that I am 90% sure he votes for me and loses.
Thinking about the CLSR kill (and some of StrangeMatters recent posts) have opened that margin up in favour of SM; I took the view (and basically still do) that Leaven flipping 50/50 on Ythan v SM gives better odds to town than the 90/10 he mislimmed me it looked like it would be if it came down to Me V Ythan, or Me V SM. I admit some of his recent postings indicate he might not be so sure about me being scum after all, which changes the calculus somewhat.

I still think you should vote me, and Leaven should hammer once he has thrashed out with you who he votes for between Ythan V SM tomorrow. I have a slight preference for StrangeMatter, currently.

It seems recent posting by SM is indicating they think I am just the final scum here; and I am starting to think the same about them. I wonder if they would be interested in putting their money where there mouth is and just vote me. Given what they are saying, they think the game just ends with my lim; so why not?
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Post Post #976 (isolation #83) » Fri Aug 13, 2021 5:50 am

Post by Val89 »

In post 972, StrangeMatter wrote:he makes a post about me and saying to not answer,
Would you care to indicate where I do this?
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Post Post #977 (isolation #84) » Fri Aug 13, 2021 6:00 am

Post by Val89 »

In post 973, Dannflor wrote:over trying to show that you are town?
I don't think that's a realistic objective. Trying to show you are town is exactly what scum is trying to do, here. What is in my power is making sure that Leaven doesn't make a game losing mistake - which is to lim me tomorrow, rather than today.

If Leaven was to townlock me and resolve to elim Ythan and SM in either order, excellent; gg; town wins 100%. But that also happens to be the exact route to a scum!Val victory, so he could never fully trust that. I consider my life expendable if it reduces the chance of a game-losing mislim on D4.

I am slowly warming up to the idea of just 1v1ing SM here; I would be more than happy to go first, today, and him tomorrow; as demonstrated by self-vote. If he is town, and they really do just think I am the remain scum, and they are basically the remaining player shading my slot, I don't see why they would have a problem with voting the player you think is scummiest and will just end the game today.
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Post Post #979 (isolation #85) » Fri Aug 13, 2021 6:39 am

Post by Val89 »

So, I didn't make a post about you and said not to answer then, did I?

YOU made a post about YOURSELF, trying to get Leaven to explain his read on YOU; which I advised Leaven not to answer, because I don't see why town needs to know that, but scum definetly did. That's something I stand by.
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Post Post #980 (isolation #86) » Fri Aug 13, 2021 6:40 am

Post by Val89 »

Dannflorr, Leaven, Ythan; one of you hammer me.

Leaven: Vote SM tomorrow. I'm now much more certain he is scum.
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Post Post #982 (isolation #87) » Fri Aug 13, 2021 6:52 am

Post by Val89 »

It's true I'm betting the game on you not being scum if Leaven listens to me, but frankly, the razorthin margin I had on SM being scum has widened to about 75/25, and without some sort of major slip - which I think is unlikley with about 36 hours left and the pace this game has slowed down to, I think that's about as sure as I can get here.

If it makes you more confortable, don't hammer me - let Leaven do it. In that case, he was always likley to vote me over the actual scum and it was a lost game anyway if he did that tomorrow, but if he does it today, it might well not be.
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Post Post #984 (isolation #88) » Fri Aug 13, 2021 6:54 am

Post by Val89 »

It's true you put me at an unannounced E-1; but you aren't at E-1 yourself, as you well know.

Bad faith increases.

You've made quite a few of these sort of mistakes this game, no?
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Post Post #986 (isolation #89) » Fri Aug 13, 2021 7:01 am

Post by Val89 »

In post 543, StrangeMatter wrote:Oh I see, I made a mistake here. At least one of you two are scum in my eyes if it is option 1.
In post 725, StrangeMatter wrote:Wait I didn't read Ythan's post and thought Dann was putting Gamma at E-1 but that's my bad.
In post 734, StrangeMatter wrote:I just looked again and realized it was Leaven who was voted not Gamma. I hate when I read things incorrectly.
In post 790, StrangeMatter wrote:I read the count wrong, but here's what I thought.
In post 983, StrangeMatter wrote:if you’re certain I am scum then hammer me. We’re both at E-1.
Forgive if I don't believe all these are legitimate mistakes. Even if you are used to have a constantly updated vote count, the most up to date Vote count is literally right up there, and nobody has voted since apart from your unannouced E-1.

You would think you would be more careful about this after being burnt by that twice already, wouldn't you? Bad faith. 100%.
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Post Post #990 (isolation #90) » Fri Aug 13, 2021 7:48 am

Post by Val89 »

In post 988, StrangeMatter wrote:So just vote me and save this trainwreck I made instead of bringing the obvious scummy person in anyways.
So, you are going for my strategy, but without the voting for yourself, is that what we take from that?
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Post Post #992 (isolation #91) » Fri Aug 13, 2021 7:57 am

Post by Val89 »

You realise the self-vote is the important part of making sure you don't get to ELO, right?

Without it, it's reads very much like you are trying to pick up towncred off the back of me doing my best to get out of the way of the ELO without actually following through on it.

I get more and more sure every time SM posts.
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Post Post #994 (isolation #92) » Fri Aug 13, 2021 8:02 am

Post by Val89 »

VOTE: StrangeMatter
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Post Post #996 (isolation #93) » Fri Aug 13, 2021 8:05 am

Post by Val89 »

Good game, anyhow.
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Post Post #1004 (isolation #94) » Fri Aug 13, 2021 8:40 am

Post by Val89 »

Whatever, Ythan.

I think StrangeMatter is just messing with us, and game ends here; but if not, I've treated this as if its ELO today, and I realise I've just handed you the game. 75% was a confident as I thought as I was going to get.

If its not, I'll just conceed the game tomorrow and let Leaven vote me; you deserve the win.
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Post Post #1007 (isolation #95) » Fri Aug 13, 2021 8:47 am

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I actually believe StrangeMatter is just messing with our head here. If they are town, they actually believe I am scum and basically just outted myself as such so "Good luck in ELO, you will need it" sounds hollow as hell.

You trying to use twilight to shade my slot already seems like you know he might well flip town. I'm being serious; I've played the percentages and if I am wrong, then I am wrong and you win, Ythan. I'm not intending on offering a defense tomorrow, but I think game ends here anyway.
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Post Post #1009 (isolation #96) » Fri Aug 13, 2021 8:54 am

Post by Val89 »

I think Leaven would vote me over you, if the game didn't end, particulary after hammering SM.

I've been saying you are town based on assocatives with Gamma, also. I play this game to have fun, and I can't think of anything I would rather do less than spend tomorrow arguing with you. I have my fingers crossed SM is just having their bit of fun right now.
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Post Post #1022 (isolation #97) » Sun Aug 15, 2021 5:31 pm

Post by Val89 »

VOTE: Ythan
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