mini theme 2229: MBOS 13 schweppes' pulpy potions daya 5

[mastina]

Yo, was V/LA over the weekend and I wake up at 3-5 pm pacific so could only get to here now.

Bear with me for a bit, this game just started and it's a low enough length that it won't take me long to catch up, but I've got other site duties to attend to and this game isn't at the top of the list. Be back very very shortly tho, promise.

[mastina]

Aw man, why didn't you start the game while i was bored out of my mind standing guard at the local museum today.

Simple Solution: get ahold of the Ahkmenrah tablet and you'll never be bored on museum guard duty ever gain.

(reading now)

[mastina]

VOTE: Mastina Because you made me sad last game.

For the record, I realize I had an instalock read of Norwee as scum last game but for whatever godforsaken reason I can't get that instalock read here one way or another. I lean town more than scum tho.

Personally I feel like the potion seller should make some potions that are less strong, his current business model seems unprofitable.

Also lean town here.

Am somewhat struggling to get reads tho. I don't know why.
Is always a temporary thing but is massively inconvenient. I should have a grasp on Dwlee and Emperor at the least but I don't. By page 3 I should have a read on ta vera but don't.

so, the mafia might get anywhere from ~1-4 kills

This sequence of posts does make me slightly lean town on ta vera but I've got fuckall of explanation beyond "gut + lazy-surface-level-posting-equals-town" mentality.

[mastina]

I have at least one ingredient I wouldn’t mind giving to basically anyone. It is not mayonnaise.

Oh you have ingredients in your role PM?

VOTE: Bingle

Pretty sure that's a scumclaim from Bingle.

[mastina]

I think your entrance was off and you seem to be selectively engaging in things that aren't really AI.

Coincidentally enough I think your entrance is off aside from containing what I believe to be a scumclaim and that this is not your towngame.

Strange response
VOTE: Titus

(For the record I may have an idea who The Emperor is and if right I lean town surprisingly.)

[mastina]

If you're explaining it badly, how do you expect me to understand your read?

(For the record. How the FUCK did I nail Norwee last game and yet now feel utterly unable to pin him down? You'd think that given how I instantly and immediately pinned him as scum, instantly, that game, that this game I would be able to have a good read. Right or wrong, have a read. Wrongly but strongly think Norwee as town, wrongly but strongly think Norwee was scum, or rightly pin Norwee down and continue my good read there. But. I can't. There's just static. Static that has random pings of "this might be town" and "this might be scum" but nothing concrete that gives a solid direction. My scumdar is solidly on the fritz for who the fuck knows why.)

[mastina]

momrangal is replaced by Fairy Circle (hydra of momrangal & flea the magician)

Momrangal replaced out, must be because she rolled scum!!!

[mastina]

Does Flea The Magician have an alignment preference?

I don't remember this but I imagine the hydra doesn't like scum collectively.

I don't want to eliminate them on D1 even if they're scum tho. <3

I would recommend reading post 1 before you continue claiming that bingle has scumclaimed.

I have read it and I still think that Bingle is scumclaiming for a very specific reason that I shall not elaborate on until Bingle elaborates on the details of his role PM.

That said even if he didn't scumclaim I'd be voting him here anyway because I legit think that Bingle's just scum here.

[mastina]

Green Cap Boys

The Emperor
ta vera

NorwegianboyEE

{The Limit Does Not Exist, Dwlee99, Titus}

cass.bruant

Fairy Circle (hydra of Momrangal and Flea the Magician)

Bingle

Rough readslist. I realize it's not great but is all I've got.

[mastina]

Oh you have ingredients in your role PM?

Just poison. I was implying I might have more than one in case Schadd told me this setup had closed elements to obscure information, but it turns out the ingredients are publicly a red herring.

Okay Bingle's scumclaim remains a scumclaim then.

[mastina]

Im still here, i just fused with Flea!

(I know, I was making a joke needling you/Norwee for fun. )
(That said poewise and contentwise your slot is def possible scum.)

[mastina]

how do you have these two names at the top of your readslist?

Because my reads are weak and I'm desperate to have some semblance of townreads in a game where I'm struggling to get them and having townfeels (call it gut if you must) there is better than nothing.

To put it a different way; if these reads were on D3 or so then their strength would be laughably low, like just above null at best--but this isn't D3; this is the earlygame, borderline rvs, and the reads that strengthwise would on D3 be just above null at best, at this rvsesque stage of the game, just so happen to be the strongest townreads I've got which top the list.

I'm not happy with them being that weak, but it's better than nothing, is the best I can do right now, and given the stage of the game we're in, is "good enough"; it'd be passable for an end-of-D1 in worst come to worst, but not ideal past then, so ideally it gets strengthened and gets more honed/refined later in the day, because I'm not happy with them, but *shrug*, you do what you can do.

If you were asking more about reasons behind the reads though;

Strange response
VOTE: Titus

(For the record I may have an idea who The Emperor is and if right I lean town surprisingly.)

^Emperor is partially this, partially his exchanges so far in this game.

You is both from early gutpings of town from rvs content along with your exchanges with Norwee for instance. It's not something foolproof that cannot come from scum, I just don't think it does come from scum.

If you're looking for something more indepth than what amounts to gut, sorry to disappoint, but,

Am somewhat struggling to get reads tho. I don't know why.
Is always a temporary thing but is massively inconvenient.

My scumdar is solidly on the fritz for who the fuck knows why.

Given this + the relatively early stage of the game, I hate to disappoint but this is literally all I've got, I legit can't do better.

[mastina]

It is the only ingredient you have correct?

Aye.

Still scumclaiming.

Mastina whats going on, why the low confidence in reads

Oh, I do have one confident read--Bingle is scum here, guaranteed. I'm not exaggerating my read there or overblowing it.

But the low confidence in my non-Bingle reads is because I am struggling to form reads aside from a Bingle scumread. I wish I could do better because usually my townhunting is much much stronger than my scumhunting but at least I DO have a consolation prize in the form of a strong scumread on Bingle.

[mastina]

Mastina and Norwee on my *glare* list for now.

Flea I <3 you but you're probably just scum here especially since of all the players in the game you're the most qualified for knowing that this is my towngame since you've seen me recently in my games more than anyone else and you not being able to see that I'm town here is one of the reasons why you're probably scum. </3

Do you mind...actually elaborating on what this is supposed to be, exactly?

I can explain this pretty damn easily but I want to force Bingle to fullclaim with a full paraphrase of the entirety of his role PM, as much as he can without getting modkilled, before I do--I refuse to explain it before then because if I do then Bingle can try to wiggle his way out of his scumclaim.

Mind you, Bingle is scum even without his scumclaim here.

But he has in fact scumclaimed here.

[mastina]

-Malefleacent

(Btw fun fact for my older sister's birthday celebration we had on Friday, we rewatched Maleficent. Figured you'd appreciate that.)

I’m going Bingle.

For the record I'm not shooting N1 as a vig shot imo is the sort of thing that I should use only if I were to lose it--in this case, N3. But were I to shoot my pool would explicitly be whichever of {Bingle, Fairy Circle} we don't eliminate today.

I’m assuming I’m the lim today, tbh, and I’m not really fighting it because I have no potions. The real question is can I orchestrate a mass action chain to follow after I die.

Bingle could be too easy so i’n gonna think about it more.

Bingle's already had some people defend him, and let me ask you this:

Bingle (4):

mastina, The Emperor, Dwlee99, NorwegianboyEE

Who of these four is scum?

If the answer you come up with is "none of them", then

Why does a wagon at L-2 with three scum in the game have no scum in it?

Granted, admittedly, there could be scum there. Emperor I think is town but I'm not absolutely sure is town, Dwlee is *static* to me in being a blank, and even you I'm struggling to lock down for sure.

But if there's no scum on the wagon...then you should be wondering why there's no scum on Bingle's wagon.

[mastina]

If i was scum here my first thought would probably be like:
"Oh shit, how do i pocket Mastina/Bingle/Datisi, i’m so screwed help!!"

Honestly I believe that. I was wondering if your posts early into the day were actually your attempt to do precisely that, in fact, which is why I've had a bit of a struggle locking you down; I couldn't tell if your posts were actually town or if they were scum desperately trying to pocket me knowing I nailed you last game.

Overall though, I think I am going to take the leap of faith and call this you-as-town; there's a lot that you're doing that ticks in my "generically town" box and while generically-town isn't meta-town, having the generically-town box ticked in combination with not thinking you're clearly scum means overall I am thinking you're town.

(Which i usually do as i feel Mastina is super easy to read once they get into the game)

True enough which is one of the reasons why Flea is suspect to me because fae should be the player in here who needs the least amount of content to tell I'm town here. Not only not coming to that conclusion but coming to the opposite conclusion is a red flag. (That, aside from the slot's posting being fairly scum-indicative for them overall imo.)

Also on that note the way Bingle has treated my slot is not what I would expect from him as town. It's

plausibly

his approach to me as town but it more looks like he's trying to imitate how he approaches me as town not realizing how he actually approaches me as town with the result being an imperfect and flawed imitation thereof.

[mastina]

Btw RE: T3: my first thought was "scum" from the angles he's pushing here but I've reconsidered and think it's just possible he's wrong-town in the sense of he's pushing in areas that will lead us to lim town rather than scum.

[mastina]

like if bingle is actually scum because he has ingredients and not potions, and that's not listed in the pm's, don't you think he, as someone who is famous for mech solving, would have noticed that none of the role pm's in the original game or this game were just ingredients? so either he's telling the truth or he's making shit up that he knows people will call him out on because ??? and if he's telling the truth, what are the odds that he wouldn't know that that was a scumclaim?

The scumclaim was more in insinuating there was a mechanic present that isn't actually present; claiming an ingredient as if we could use an ingredient to craft a potion when there is no such mechanic. Beyond that mishap, there's how I genuinely don't believe that a potionless individual as town would have an ingredient in their role pm. Heck, even in Bingle's attempt to clear himself of the scumclaim:

@mod: would it be possible for you to generate a potionless sample town pm and a sample town pm with two pain potions and a potion of harmography? If possible, could you generate the same sample pms for scum, redacting non public information as necessary?

sample potionless town PM:

Spoiler:

welcome to mystery box of silver 13! you are a

townie

, however you do not have any potions. to simulate part of the potion drinking experience, we have provided you with a

dangerous crate

full of

cracked and broken potion bottles

. however you are not permitted to do anything with this crate because it is

stolen

from the

Schweppes Broken Potion Bottle Factory

who have a

warrant

.

you win when all threats to the town are eliminated. please confirm by telling me your alignment & promising not to tell Schweppes about the stolen bottles

Do you see potion ingredients in this potionless PM?

I don't.

What I think happened is that there was a mention of ingredients outside of Bingle's available potions as scum--either as part of his genuine role PM or in a fakeclaim. And that Bingle thought that the mention of ingredients there was a mechanic in town PMs when it isn't. A perspective slip born from a scum role PM, and one that is exactly the mistake a mechanical scum player can make.

Just because a player is a mechanical player does not make them omniscient when it comes to mechanics. They can take precautions, but they can make mistakes from faulty assumptions, poor mod clarification, etc. There's numerous ways for a mechanical player to make genuine mechanical mistakes where their mechanical prowess rather than serving as an asset actually backfires. And I believe that Bingle's ingredients with no potions claim is precisely that.

However, even beyond the scumslip: I'm like 80% sure that this is Bingle's scumplay anyway. No scumslip necessary, just off of his dayplay.

Why?

Because I have a fairly good idea of how Bingle plays as town on D1 specifically, and this is very much not how Bingle plays D1 as town. In fact the very things people are townreading him for are the things that make him be scum, here. (Think an old mastina flowchart tell of sorts. If Bingle looks strongly town on D1, it's because he's scum.)

Obviously I can elaborate on this if needed but suffice to say I'm never not voting Bingle. (I mayyyyyyyyyy compromise on a different scumread if needed but I really don't want Bingle to get away here.)

[mastina]

Bingle could be too easy so i’n gonna think about it more.

Bingle's already had some people defend him, and let me ask you this:

Bingle (4):

mastina, The Emperor, Dwlee99, NorwegianboyEE

Who of these four is scum?
If the answer you come up with is "none of them", then

Why does a wagon at L-2 with three scum in the game have no scum in it?

But if there's no scum on the wagon...then you should be wondering why there's no scum on Bingle's wagon.

Right, i wanted to get back to this. While i think you’re making an decent point and the wagon composition might in fact be all town. (I’m kinda townreading Dwlee just for being so different to his scumgame with hardly trying to appear town at all)

I still don’t think it’s utterly damning, and i liked his posts from that point onwards and i agree with T3’s point of: "Bingle should be better at mechanics as scum to know better than to claim something that looks utterly scummy." Therefore i can only assume he did so because it is real, and Schadd felt like adding an miller type role that looks scummy by default but is town.

Sure, it's not utterly damning!

It is however still evidence against Bingle.

Evidence which adds up.

Bingle got to L-2, and with a fairly high chance of no scum on that wagon.
Bingle's claim is one that is incredibly likely to have come from scum.
Bingle's play here does not match any of his towngames for D1.

Any one of these wouldn't be damning.
But having them all, is.

[mastina]

Bingle is also aware that as a semi-nightless setup, losing a scum member, even a functionally powerless one, is a fairly significant blow and he'd have tried harder to avoid the yeet. Although you could argue that his posting was him trying to avoid the yeet.

I am in fact arguing precisely that, actually.

Well, close enough to that.

Bingle has never been this town as town on D1. He is, very deliberately, very specifically, putting in more effort than normal.

His mechsolving is nai, sure. But I'm not bothered by the mechsolve work he put in. He'd put in that mechsolve work regardless of his alignment.

What I more mean is the likes of this:

All of these lines of interaction seem to me like they're aimed at going no where. You've got the noncommital question about a 'townslip' that has already been called out (It wasn't a townslip, btw, it was a question scumNorwee could also have had), a "That's NAI.", generic comments about nothing (meta can be good), and a nothingburger response to Norwee's meta. Also, the mechstuff, even if prompted.

It feels more like she wants to be seen as doing something more than actually wanting to do something.

This is a level of hard push that is rare from Bingle as town--not impossible, but rare. The reason why? He said it himself:

OTOH, I'm in a lobby that has 0 names I'm amazing at reading.

Bingle doesn't have an amazing ability at reading names in this lobby, so the strong push on ta vera is out of place.

As far as towncasing, I've spoken a little about Emp, but I suppose I could go into detail.

DR Green has been waffling, but not in a way that makes it seem like they're willing to take any side in an argument. They have consistently had the most salient opinions on IGA fmpov and the things they've poked at all seem to be going somewhere (contrast ta vera). 109 for example looked like Dats was actually trying to find motivation. 144 is an admittedly weak push, but when asked about it Dats didn't back down and elaborated on his thoughts. There was a train of logic behind the push AND the followthrough to actually try to get discussion going from it. And then he went and turned the confrontation into a chance at reading me, not an accusation but an honest attempt at reaching out.

125 was also fairly town in that it's something I don't think scum thinks to fake. If scum is going to put the effort into pushing lurkers, I'd expect it to be on a lurker that actually exists in the game. "But Bingle," you say, "The fact that Dats thought Dunn WAS in the game makes that NAI!" Sure. But scum also doesn't make that post having realized he isn't. Scum either drops the Dunnstral case anyway and we all point and laugh and say "Silly Datisi, there's no Dunn in this game, you must be town." or scum just leaves the whole thing alone and doesn't post it at all. The former would be better for optics and the latter would be better for effort. Instead, Datisi is being naturally open with his approach to the thread, meaning he doesn't have the intention of hiding things.

Teal Dear:

GCB has consistently shown a town approach to the game.

This is a second read that Bingle has gone out of his way to give--on D1. The read on ta vera was already a stretch and this stretches it even further. Bingle is usually far more, for lack of better terminology, reserved when it comes to reads. He doesn't usually go in this much depth. Once was already unusual. Twice even more so.

The main things I like from Emp, along with his back and forth with ta vera which went over several posts and mostly boiled down to prompting her for actual content while she was catching up. I disagree that 8 was town indicative (Norwee is smart enough to ask non incriminating setup clarification questions publicly as scum) but the thought process that it would be town indicative isn't an unreasonable one. Further, the thought process of "I think thing X is town, Person Y thinks thing X is town, and I don't see a reason for Person Y to point out that thing X is town" is altogether far more towny than the generic "I think thing X is town and Person Y thinks thing X is town". It shows a level of paranoia as to GCB's motivations that I think is unlikely to be faked by scum as a throwaway read in the early days.

The wrongmeta application to me similarly makes sense. DNC 2 was one of my only real recent scumgames (the only other one that pops into mind is the game about Russia and nukes where I repped into a literally solved gamestate and cried a little that I didn't get to play scum with Ali for longer) and he's 100% right that my entrance there was very different to my entrance here. Comparatively I have quite a few recent towngames that are more in line with this game. He didn't take into account that DNC 2 I mostly avoided mechspeak because the majority of the game had just had the mech speak conversation and thus didn't need it again, as I pointed out by telling him to look at the contemporary game of lovers and losers 2 where I didn't engage in mechspeak because we accidentally broke the game and had to reroll based on leveraging mod info to locktown a player. (Which, to be fair, was 50% my fault and 50% llamafluff's fault.) In both cases I didn't mechspeak because I already had.

Still though, his conclusions were supported by the given evidence, which he definitely went to go find, and he didn't appear to be blowing smoke up my ass (which would be unlikely from someone who meta'd me as I'm LESS likely to townread people who townread me). The waffling on me seems like genuine cogdis where he's trying to reconcile two different opinions and can't quite line them up, which is very hard to fake well as scum.

But then he does it a third time.

I frankly do not believe that Bingle as town cares this much and puts this much effort in as town. Not from a player who in the past, as town, has repeatedly told me over multiple games something to the effect of "I am lazy on D1", so to speak. Bingle as town does not effort this much. He doesn't get these strong of reads, described this strongly. As town, Bingle is far more "reactive", but in this game Bingle is being proactive. You can see this in full effect by taking a look at his iso here. His cases in that game, such as they were, were pretty exclusively one-liners. The closest he got to cases not one-liners was him giving quotes (mostly in spoilers) to give context and elaborating on statements he had already previously made. Very very reactive.

The same holds true for this game, too--Bingle was fairly casual and reactive in nature, rather than proactive and serious.

And the same holds true for this game as well--Bingle was casual and reactive. His posts were short and usually one-liners with little in the way of casework done to look town.

Every time Bingle has been town has been similar. Fairly casual, lighthearted, and reactive. Giving reads and reasons but not bothering with a proper readslist with detailed lengthy explanations on players.

The fact that he's doing so in this game is, explicitly, because he is scum.

[mastina]

i genuinely do like the towncases on me / emperor

The towncases are good and genuine which is why you and Emperor are both probably town.

The towncases being good however does not make Bingle town. Quite the opposite in fact; that much effort to towncase town slots is something Bingle never does as town but there's a clear incentive to do as scum.

Neither you nor Emperor were likely to be eliminated. Both slots were fairly townread. Not universally, but townread enough that Bingle towncasing you is a zero-risk thing as scum. In fact from a risk-reward perspective, it ONLY makes sense as scum.

Why?

As town, why would Bingle need to towncase slots that weren't likely to be the elimination? The slots are already fairly townread so Bingle doesn't need to go out of his way to put the time and effort into towncasing them. He gains nothing from towncasing slots already widely townread, but he loses time which could be spent elsewhere.

Bingle's effort as town would be better spent on towncasing slots that ARE likely to be eliminated without him towncasing them.

As scum, why would Bingle towncase slots that weren't likely to be the elimination? Specifically BECAUSE they weren't likely to be the elimination. Bingle as scum towncasing them loses nothing. He's not shutting down potential mislims due to them being fairly townread because while there may be one or two slots suspicious of you/Emperor, there's not the needed six to back eliminations there. But what does he gain? Towncred for :effort: in towncasing slots that are town.

[mastina]

Oops that was meant to be posted with this.

I'm used to you being quite confident in your opening reads

You literally just saw me have a towngame where I had this exact same issue, so I'm calling bullshit on this.

Furthermore, you literally just saw my scumgame and know full well how much this game is not the same as that game was.

Those two games and the contrast between them were one of the reasons I said of all the players in this game you should have the least issue being able to tell that this isn't my scumgame and that I am town. You saw how lackluster my scumgame is and you've seen how this is my towngame so you shouldn't have suspicion on me at all. That you do is, frankly: suspicious.

[mastina]

Oh, weird. I assumed the potions had a constant ingredients list based on the OP.

(This is part of where the scumslip comes from btw. As I said--just because someone is mechanically oriented and is scum does not mean they are infallible from slipping up and making an erroneous assumption that bites them in the ass.)

[mastina]

I’m confused how you can have an ingredient without a potion.

(like I said, scumslip)

[mastina]

SS is my best fos

For the record my hero-solve is {Bingle, Fairy Circle, The Limit Does Not Exist}.

I demand worship if that's the exact scumteam;
I demand respect if 2/3 are scum;
I still expect credit if at least 1/3 is scum.

[mastina]

We've seen all configurations except town-T3/scum-S_S.

Until this game it would seem.

[mastina]

The part where Momrangal asks mastina what reads she has give me bad vibes but nothing to vote over.

Yup, since:

Green Cap Boys

The Emperor
ta vera

NorwegianboyEE

{The Limit Does Not Exist, Dwlee99, Titus}

cass.bruant

Fairy Circle (hydra of Momrangal and Flea the Magician)

Bingle

Rough readslist. I realize it's not great but is all I've got.

This was within the first 20 pages.
So, too, was me saying I was having difficulty getting reads, for that matter.

Now, admittedly, said readslist is a bit obsolete, my plan was to update it once caught up (which I'm obviously close to), butstill, I had in fact given reads by the point in time asked about. Just like Norwee was guilty of asking this of me last game when he was scum, Momrangal is guilty of asking this of me this game, too, and unsurprisingly, I think it comes from the same alignment in both cases.

I gotta leave now for a different engagement sadly in spite of being close to caught up, will finish it later but for now:
Green Cap Boys

The Emperor
NorwegianboyEE
(there's very little separating these two tiers btw)
ta vera/RCEnigma
Titus
cass.bruant/T3

Dwlee99


The Limit Does Not Exist




Fairy Circle

Bingle

(will finish when I get back)

[mastina]

Mastina excluding the depth what do you think about bingles read consistency?

Read consistency isn't a metric I'm good at using most of the time. I can sometimes see an egregious lack of it, but otherwise I'm not the one to ask.

Thing is, you aren't looking at any of his scumgames. He puts in even less effort as scum and doesn't wall at all. Both scum and town Bingle are casual and reactive, but town Bingle will occasionally effort a wall but scum Bingle won't.

This is a fairly superficial take and imo ignores critical context.

In this case, that Bingle has far more incentive to put in effort as scum than he does as town.

[mastina]

Why is Titus high?

I'd be the first to admit I can't read Titus worth shit, but that having been said, a lot of Titus's work here looks like what I'd think would be town for her.

However, the true clincher: Titus making a hero solve.

Some people are townreading me partially because of my hero solve, but where do you think I got the idea to make one from? Titus made a hero-solve before I do so if you townread me for my hero solve you should be townreading Titus for hers. I just don't think scum-Titus makes a hero solve like that, especially if it is so brazenly stepping on too many town players' toes. It's the sort of thing she'll get basically zero support for and receive nothing but negative attention for, yet she still seems to believe in it. While it's not impossible for Titus to be scum, this behavior radiates town from her.

What I believe she's misunderstanding is that it's not ever really my goal to catch scum on D1. I'm always trying instead to put as many people as possible in the hotseat where they have to take positions that they can then be read on the basis of later. D1 is all about poking people to make associations fall out so that I or others can then look into the interplay. Catching scum is gravy.

No, that's actually more or less precisely what I am talking about--your goal isn't to catch scum on D1, you like to pressure people, multiple people, to get that extra info.

So why then have your efforts been to make one lengthy scumcase and two lengthy towncases? Neither of those fit the mold of putting many people in the hotseat.

Your towncases and your scumcase look more like they are made for appearances rather than made to further your progression.

I haven't read most (any) of the long posts. I won't have time to catch up fully until next week probably

Oh? Then why did you put so much time/effort into reading MY long posts on Bingle all of a sudden?

Could it be because you felt the need to protect him?

[mastina]

what do you make of RCE?

I can't read him worth shit, but I honestly don't think his content so far is alignment indicative one way or another. It vaguely looks town but not in a way that is necessarily actually town as a scum player of RCE's caliber could easily make the vaguely town-looking posts. The slot was looking town to me before, though, so between previous holder of the slot looking town enough to me and RCE looking vaguely town I'm willing to give RCE more time to basically show the townness through.

Also Dwlee. Does this actually remind me of my play in our previous game?
Like, i try to close the gap. But my energy is just completely energy when i am town VS as scum.
Like when Mastina tunneled me in that previous game i tried to stay tough but really i was crying myself to sleep everyday. While here i just feel intense and willfull pretty much the whole way. I can’t fake that as scum, believe me i’ve tried.
I’m just not good at handling pressure when scum. That’s like the cheat code to catch scum!me.

For the record, I buy this as being true and that Norwee is town.

[mastina]

Read
My
Posts

The irony is thick.

(I haven't forgotten how many people said this to Dwlee last game.)

the fact itself that bingle is having reads on d1, how is that a problem? like, i'll be the first to say that i don't know bingle's meta that well and i've never seen him as scum, but even without doing any research i remember him having a decently strong townread on me on d1 in that jk9++ game (which, to be fair was over a year ago, but uh, working with what i remember right now).

Having reads, even strong ones, is not an issue from Bingle.

The amount of explanation/effort behind the reads (especially given his admitted lack of read familiarity for the playerlist), is.

You said it yourself:

i was right that he was strongly townreading me on d1, but he definitely did not make a full blown case about it.

Why the need to make a full blown case about it this game when he didn't in a previous game?

[mastina]

Green Cap Boys
NorwegianboyEE

Titus
The Emperor
(there's very little separating these two tiers btw)
cass.bruant/T3
ta vera/RCEnigma


Dwlee99


The Limit Does Not Exist




Fairy Circle

Bingle

Think this is where I'm at right now.

Locktown, strong town, almost-just-as-strong-town, null, scumlean, scumread lockscum.

[mastina]

Why does a Norwee/Dwlee/T3 solve seem likely to draw negative attention to you?

Well aside from antagonizing all three of the players involved when all three are at least a little prone to OMGUS tendencies, there's the fact that aside from maybe MAYBE Dwlee there's basically very little chance of the push having momentum to it. While scum-Titus can make pushes on players she know won't go through specifically because she knows they won't go through, this tendency is something I'd more expect if she were genuine in her belief.

Mastina, sell me on LimitScum.

Don't really need to. It's mostly POE. I have townreads on most players in the game. I don't have a townread on TheLimitDoesNotExist. This, in spite of both heads being heads that I would expect to be able to generate townreads on. They're too reserved, too passive, too not-making-wavesey. They're doing basically nothing, and certainly nothing which looks town.

Does that make them lockscum? Where an absence of doing much of anything makes them be definitely scum? No, not on its own. But when you combine it with a combination of expecting them to radiate town + everyone else looking town + their defense of slots I am suspicious of + their lackluster content + other players I'd expect to be able to read them not having lock-solid townreads on them (basically, I would expect other players who're town to be able to locktown them if they were town and yet as far as I can tell that hasn't happened) all adds up to a lean scum read.

It's nothing concrete, sadly.

---

So I may or may not be around in time tomorrow for a deadline rush. Given that, this is compromise zone where any of the 3 I want to eliminate, I will.

with 11 alive, it takes 6 to cause someone to Wet. day 1 ends in (expired on 2021-08-17 12:30:00)[/b]

As far as I can tell, 0 votes on Fairy Circle in this votecount, so:

VOTE: Fairy Circle

1/6

VOTE: Fairy Circle

2/6

VOTE: FAIRY

3/6

VOTE: Fairy Circle

4/6

So I am pretty damn sure this is not a hammer, but this SHOULD be:
VOTE: Fairy Circle

Fairy Circle is at

L-1

.

Flea, Mara, I <3 you, I really don't want to lim you D1, but I think you're scum and while I don't want to lim you D1 a scum elimination is better than a town one and I don't trust the town to eliminate scum if it's not eliminating {Bingle, TLDNE, Fairy Circle} and yours is the only among the 3 with support right now so I'm sorry. <3

[mastina]

@mastina, why do you even townread our slot anyway?

Because you bleed town literally every post in a way I just don't see as scum?

Also:

VOTE: Bingle

I told y'all that Titus was town yesterday so for literally everyone who scumread her, you owe me this.

[mastina]

Like, we went from this:

Fairy Circle (5):

NorwegianboyEE, Dwlee99, RCEnigma, mastina, T3

T3 (2):

The Emperor, Fairy Circle

Dwlee99 (1):

Titus

The Limit Does Not Exist (1):

Green Cap Boys

RCEnigma (1):

Bingle

not voting (1):

The Limit Does Not Exist

Zero votes on Titus, to this:

Titus (4):

Green Cap Boys, T3, Dwlee99, Fairy Circle

Titus (4):

Dwlee99, Fairy Circle, NorwegianboyEE, Green Cap Boys

That's the exact strategy scum Titus used in Situation Room while pushing me.

You owe me for voting Titus.

VOTE: Titus

You owe me for voting Titus not to mention your moronic scumread on me.

VOTE: Titus

You ESPECIALLY owe me for voting Titus and absolute arrogance in that read.

VOTE: titus

If you ever want me to CONSIDER your slot as town you fucking owe me a Bingle vote here.

VOTE: Titus
Don’t really care if they town or scum. They just need to go.
Feels like a decent chance they scum though.

And you ESPECIALLY owe me above all because you knew that I said Titus was town here and didn't want that elimination.

We're eliminating Bingle today.

[mastina]

but if you wanna go that route, fine. you feel flat as fuck and for someone who's supposed to be very easy to obvtown, it's a horrible look. i don't care you had the other game where you were in f3. i don't care about who has more or fewer posts, when most of your posts were either screaming at mastina, throwing a fit at anyone looking at you for acting scummy, or s_s throwing out unmemorable comments. the way that you're latching onto things like this and spewing ate while not actually offering content to solve looks bad.

but you're free to actually offer some content and lay out how this is apparently not all that different from us last game.

Btw this is :goodposting: from Datisi since TLDNE is very very highly likely scum, too.

I just think Bingle's scum stronger, and that TLDNE is a Bingle scumbuddy.

[mastina]

Retti is vaguely town sounding meanwhile Datisi oozes town.

^Basically this.

I basically assumed that if anyone was going to be targeted by the scum other than me it'd have been Green Cap Boys. Obviously, if I have any watcher/doc/jk potions I'd use them on GCB to protect them or catch scum. I should also, just as obviously, not state if I actually do have any of those. (Unless of course I had information to give from having done so but to my knowledge, I've no need to give such info out.)

Assumed mastina would as well.

You didn't read my posts, then;

For the record I'm not shooting N1 as a vig shot imo is the sort of thing that I should use only if I were to lose it--in this case, N3. But were I to shoot my pool would explicitly be whichever of {Bingle, Fairy Circle} we don't eliminate today.

If I have a pain potion, the one and only reason I would use it before N3 is if I thought I was going to die and the vig would go to waste. If I have two pain potions, then I would still not shoot until N2 unless I thought scum were going to kill me outright N1 (which I did not in fact think, I banked on scum being too afraid of me being the target of various protections to outright try to kill me meaning I had zero incentive to use a pain potion N1).

If I have a pain potion, then I am never using it outside of {Bingle, Fairy Circle, The Limit Does Not Exist}, but if I have a pain potion, I did not use it N1.

I obviously see no need to give more info than this as this is already pushing it.

[mastina]

I pained limit so limming them would be a waste.

I don't trust pain potions to serve as guaranteed eliminations here given that:
-Scum players can lie about having pain potion'd a player and thus a player we think we could kill, could end up surviving
-Scum players can, if they have them, doctor/jailkeep players and thus negate pain potions on them and thus a player we think we could kill, could end up surviving
-Town players can be roleblocked by a jailkeeper and thus a player we think we could kill, could end up surviving
-There are multiple players that are good eliminations who have been pain potioned; we can't remove all of them from the elimination pool just because all of them have been targeted by a pain potion.

So I'm still not voting anyone outside of {Bingle, The Limit Does Not Exist, Fairy Circle} (preference in that order), and I'm still not going to pain potion anyone outside of {Bingle, The Limit Does Not Exist, Fairy Circle}.

Pain potion eliminations are nice, and they are a good backup fallback plan, and they are a boon to bolster our chances; they should not be the one true dictation of the game considering the myriad of ways they can fail.

To put it another way: the elimination cannot fail; pain potions can. So I will not endorse letting a scumread off of the elimination-hook for a CHANCE that the scumread dies to a pain potion.

[mastina]

mastina is town by overall meta, Fairy is town for meta in response the pressure from Flea, Norwee is town for meta in response to pressure, GCB is town for Datisi's emotion in terms of meta.

I have thoughts on this but I won't share them unless I live to see D3.

[mastina]

Point is, she dug her own grave.

For the record, blaming the town that you played a large part in eliminating for being the sole cause of their elimination is fucking disgusting and all of you doing this (it's not just you, T3; Norwee and Dwlee ALSO did it) should be ashamed. YOU fucked up by not reading her right. Is Titus blameless? No. She, objectively, made some bad plays, with her reads, reasons, and roleclaim, and that mishandling of things means she wasn't above reproach altogether. But she wasn't unreadable and she wasn't posting as scum by virtue of her having flipped town so taking zero accountability for it and blaming her exclusively for it is fucking disgusting.

But, while I have very strong feelings on this, I acknowledge this is neither the time nor place for it beyond this post; it doesn't do any good and could actually do harm by making more toxicity, even this much is a risk towards toxicity increasing so I really shouldn't say more, but I couldn't in good faith say nothing at all.

I threw down a bingle vote when I came back, we even threw him a potion at night. What dp you think pf that

I'll tell you if I am alive on D3. (If you/Mom are really REALLY smart between you two you might be able to figure it out on your own but if you can't, wait until D3.)

I feel like the biggest thing on lilith is lack of presence

It's more than lack of presence.

I haven't read most (any) of the long posts. I won't have time to catch up fully until next week probably

Oh? Then why did you put so much time/effort into reading MY long posts on Bingle all of a sudden?

Could it be because you felt the need to protect him?

It's what they've done while present. For a player who had said they hadn't read the long posts, TLDNE seemed strangely knowledgeable about my push on Bingle and had a lot to say there, showing them to be weirdly informed on the subject beyond what they said.

Beyond that,

Mastina, sell me on LimitScum.

Don't really need to. It's mostly POE. I have townreads on most players in the game. I don't have a townread on TheLimitDoesNotExist. This, in spite of both heads being heads that I would expect to be able to generate townreads on. They're too reserved, too passive, too not-making-wavesey. They're doing basically nothing, and certainly nothing which looks town.

Does that make them lockscum? Where an absence of doing much of anything makes them be definitely scum? No, not on its own. But when you combine it with a combination of expecting them to radiate town + everyone else looking town + their defense of slots I am suspicious of + their lackluster content + other players I'd expect to be able to read them not having lock-solid townreads on them (basically, I would expect other players who're town to be able to locktown them if they were town and yet as far as I can tell that hasn't happened) all adds up to a lean scum read.

I have townreads on most players to reasonable strengths--TLDNE is not among them. While POE is not damning on its own in of itself, there's also the fact that in the entirety of their content, there is nothing that I can townread. Something_Smart is a slot that I would expect to be able to get a read on one way or another but his lack of content here makes it basically impossible to get a read on him one way or another, which is a red flag.

lilith is not a slot that I know much about, lacking much history there but for some reason I seem to recall hearing that lilith is very very easily obvtown when she is town, that she has a very easy time displaying herself to be town, and that is utterly absent from this game. Both to me, and largely, to others who can read her.

While being busy with other stuff can be understandable, it's not what they're not doing which bothers me; it's what they're doing when they're around. Which is to say, a lot of this:

but if you wanna go that route, fine. you feel flat as fuck and for someone who's supposed to be very easy to obvtown, it's a horrible look. i don't care you had the other game where you were in f3. i don't care about who has more or fewer posts, when most of your posts were either screaming at mastina, throwing a fit at anyone looking at you for acting scummy, or s_s throwing out unmemorable comments. the way that you're latching onto things like this and spewing ate while not actually offering content to solve looks bad.

but you're free to actually offer some content and lay out how this is apparently not all that different from us last game.

The little content they HAVE shown DOES have a huge amount of focus in areas that simply put: don't look like town areas for them to have focused on. There's very little in the way of gamesolving or trying to further the gamestate. There's a decent amount of defense of Bingle, which is mutual, as Bingle has also been defending TLDNE somewhat.

It's a bunch of things adding up.
POE and them being outside of it.
A lack of them looking town at all.
The content they post being lackluster when it is posted.
The content they post focusing on areas that don't look like areas town would focus on.
Associatives with Bingle.

Nothing on its own is damning, but it adds up to a pretty damn high likelihood that they're just scum.

No kill tonight makes me think scum either has low pain potions

Hmm, I wonder which slot claimed to have no potions?
Could the slot having claimed that, perhaps, have been scum?

Food for thought.

Why would scum not target Mastina?

Well scum didn't target GCP the second most obvtown player behind myself so the question isn't why did scum not target me but rather "why did scum not target the towniest most likely to be watched/protected slots in the game", and the answer to that I think can be found here:

Scum should not actually kill a player tonight

. Arsonist >> Goon. It's a pretty trivial understanding, but putting their shots into three separate players is better for scum because it denies us information right now and doesn't negatively impact their turns to win. Obviously, this may be different because of the composition of the scum team and whether a specific player is scary, but what this REALLY means is that scum is likely to spread out their kills tonight, regardless of what we do. We want to use harmography specifically tonight because of this.

My suggestion, for N1

we use the No Pain option

and for N2 we use the Limited pool option. This gives us more information when targeting the vig shot (possibly even a guilty) and gives us optimal usage of the harmography potions on the night when it's most likely for them to be useful.

If scum goes wide on kills, they increase the chances we hit one of them with a watcher result

. If scum goes for a kill, they risk being caught as MULTIPLE BAD ACTORS by one investigation.

Tell me, Norwee: if Bingle is scum here, what sort of kill strategy do you think the scumteam would be going for?

'Cause I actually think the lack of the two most widely townread players being targeted by pain potions is pretty damn condemning for Bingle being scum, because it means EITHER: Bingle is scum and had huge input on the scumteam's actions OR: the scumteam in spite of not having Bingle among them still followed his plan anyway and took advantage of it.

The latter is not impossible but the former is far more likely.

[mastina]

Oh, you mean Bingle was right and pain potions are negative utility that should not have been used N1? Cool.

I mean just because I think you're scum doesn't mean I think your mechanical advice was wrong--quite the opposite, you'd never lie about the mechanical advice. As scum you'd develop counterplay to your mechanical play (and I think the night actions last night suggest that this is in fact what happened), but you'd still suggest the play you genuinely believed to be the optimal play.

843 is your genuine thoughts on the optimal strategy to use in the game. While I'm not 100% sure it's necessarily the actual optimal strategy, I am still,
1: 90+% sure it's the optimal strategy, and
2: Even in the 10% chance it isn't the optimal strategy, I 100% believe you

think

it is the optimal strategy.

So you were right, or even if you weren't right, you

believed

you were right.

I just think that you happen to be scum that was ignored by town who used their pain potions, and who developed a scum counterplay to your own strategy you proposed.

[mastina]

(Btw in case it was unclear; I used the watch potion on Green Cap Boys. Nobody used a pain potion on them last night.)

[mastina]

Also:
While I don't want to give a full readslist unless I live to D3, I do at least want to give a PARTIAL readslist today:

Never Eliminating or Pain Potioning:

Green Cap Boys
NorwegianboyEE

Probably Not Eliminating or Pain Potioning:

T3

Possibly Not Eliminating or Pain Potioning:

The Emperor (almost put him in above category for what it's worth tho)
Dwlee99

Beyond that, you'll just have to wait and see.

[mastina]

This reminds me I wanted to ask you yesterday independent of already scumreading bingle. Do you think Scum!Bingle makes his mechanical wall and intentionally has scum!Dwlee jump in to obfuscate his town plan proposal?

No, because I don't think Dwlee is scum. I'm not sure Dwlee is town but I feel like Dwlee is at the very least town enough for now, to figure out on a later day phase if that towniness is justified or not.

Even IF Bingle and Dwlee were scum together, I wouldn't imagine it was a coordinated play; quite the opposite, it'd be an uncoordinated play where they had disagreements. But that's a big 'if' given I don't think Dwlee is scum but DO think Bingle is scum.

So basically:

I guess more directly asking would be do you think the interactions between bingle and dwlee are genuine or fabricated?

I think the interactions are genuine but even IF both were scum I would think that to be the case as it is possible to have genuine scum interactions without them being fabricated if the players have disagreements, something Bingle with Dwlee would be likely to have.

Forced to choose one to be scum though I'd always choose Bingle as the scum over Dwlee, but there's nothing clearing nor condemning about the Bingle-Dwlee interactions imo.

(Btw in case it was unclear; I used the watch potion on Green Cap Boys. Nobody used a pain potion on them last night.)

Odd. So it appears either scum isn't trying to kill any of the most nightkill baity players at all or they aren't using pain potions.

So I ask you again:

No kill tonight makes me think scum either has low pain potions

Hmm, I wonder which slot claimed to have no potions?
Could the slot having claimed that, perhaps, have been scum?

Food for thought.

Why would scum not target Mastina?

Well scum didn't target GCP the second most obvtown player behind myself so the question isn't why did scum not target me but rather "why did scum not target the towniest most likely to be watched/protected slots in the game", and the answer to that I think can be found here:

Scum should not actually kill a player tonight

. Arsonist >> Goon. It's a pretty trivial understanding, but putting their shots into three separate players is better for scum because it denies us information right now and doesn't negatively impact their turns to win. Obviously, this may be different because of the composition of the scum team and whether a specific player is scary, but what this REALLY means is that scum is likely to spread out their kills tonight, regardless of what we do. We want to use harmography specifically tonight because of this.

My suggestion, for N1

we use the No Pain option

and for N2 we use the Limited pool option. This gives us more information when targeting the vig shot (possibly even a guilty) and gives us optimal usage of the harmography potions on the night when it's most likely for them to be useful.

If scum goes wide on kills, they increase the chances we hit one of them with a watcher result

. If scum goes for a kill, they risk being caught as MULTIPLE BAD ACTORS by one investigation.

Tell me, Norwee: if Bingle is scum here, what sort of kill strategy do you think the scumteam would be going for?

'Cause I actually think the lack of the two most widely townread players being targeted by pain potions is pretty damn condemning for Bingle being scum, because it means EITHER: Bingle is scum and had huge input on the scumteam's actions OR: the scumteam in spite of not having Bingle among them still followed his plan anyway and took advantage of it.

The latter is not impossible but the former is far more likely.

Which scumteam do you think has the most reason to have holstered on pain potions and/or targeted players that aren't nightkill-baity?

The one led by Bingle, or the one without Bingle?

[mastina]

I probably should have checked Emperor. That was an bad call.

I mean Emperor was my second choice, too, but I valued the townness of GCB more especially due to the latter half of the day phase, where Emperor's activity (and thus, towniness) fell off a cliff whereas GCB's towniness skyrocketed.

I really don't know what you're planning but i'm not complaining Mastina.

It's really not much of a plan if I'm honest.

[mastina]

You're trying to read Mom thinking faer me. Soooo no. I can't work it out. Because your basis is wrong.

I assure you, I'm not. When Mom is around I hope you can ask her what she thinks since this is the sort of thing that I don't think you can figure out on your own and which she might not be able to figure out on her own but between the two of you you might be able to piece together what I've been getting at.

So I watched t3 last night and no one harmed them. I picked t3 because I thought two things: if t3 is scum, we could get clears cause I thought town might dump shots there. And if t3 is town, scum might attack him because they'd suspect he is unlikely to be watched. That no one attacked him makes me think now that t3 might be evil.

For the record, I don't currently think Dwlee is scum but this is perfectly plausible of Dwlee being scum as it is exactly the sort of action he would do as scum knowing he would do it as town.

But that's not something to tackle today. Today I've got a limited vote pool and Dwlee is outside of that today.

[mastina]

Or... Dwlee is town doong that action?

Yes, that is the my current assumption overall.

[mastina]

In what world does GCB not get shot by scum if they are town? Serious question.

The fact that nobody died means that scum are clearly more afraid of harmography than people's reads.

Funny how quickly you answered your own question there. Harmography guilties are a far greater risk to the scum than any single town player would be. In fact they're a greater risk to the scum than any 2-3 town players would be.

I still used my harmography potion just in case scum thought that GCB was more threatening than the harmography potion I had, but while I was obviously hoping in my delusions of grandeur to catch scum, realistically I knew the chances were quite low if the scum had a modicum of competency. Still took the chance since a chance of catching scum > no chance of catching scum by saving the harm potion, but scum led by any good player (*coughBinglecoughSScough*) are going to do the risk-reward analysis and conclude killing/poisoning 1-3 universal townreads is not as good as avoiding being caught.

Is it just me or does this game feel really dead and tired.

I mean that's what happens when the folks who drive the D1 elimination don't actually get anything from said elimination* and the folks who WOULD get something from an elimination of their choice* didn't get an elimination of their choice and there being no nightkill. (It's almost like the Titus elimination didn't change the game at all whereas other eliminations would have.)

We're effectively in a D1 part two.

I’m very interested to hear mastina’s reaction to our harmography claim, she doesn’t appear to have reacted at all.

Why would I? The only thing that claim does is, at best, give a minor boost to what I already believed (you being Bingle's scumbuddy), and that's what it does at

best

; at worst it means literally nothing at all.



*What I more or less mean by this is, whenever an elimination of my choice goes through, it has a big noticeable impact on my play the following day regardless of the alignment of the eliminated player. It forces a shift from me where my play changes and adapts as a direct consequence of the flip.
The players who pushed Titus yesterday are, today, playing exactly the same as they did yesterday. The Titus flip had no noticeable impact on their play. They didn't shift, they didn't adapt. They're exactly the same as they were before the Titus elimination. Meanwhile since a Titus flip is not a flip I endorsed, it had no noticeable impact on my play the following day because it wasn't a flip I wanted. No shift from me because there's nothing different today to tomorrow for me.

[mastina]

In what world does GCB not get shot by scum if they are town? Serious question.

in the same world where last game, you/mena and skitter didn't get shot - because scum doesn't shoot watcher bait?

like, we can talk about having bad reads or whatever, but i have a feeling this post has an implication that i'm not sure i like - especially as your slot has publicly been my strongest scumread for a while, so if you're town you should know i'm wrong, so in the very next post, talking about people probably having bad reads right after posting this is ???

Btw this is very very VERY :goodposting: for what it's worth.

like, 1818 implies you think we're scum (probably, if i'm not meant to read it like that lemme know, but especially considering events of mbos 12 i feel like i'm supposed to read it that way), and a minute later 1819 says you think town is having bad reads since nobody died. and from your pov, i should be the definition of "bad reads". so the fact you're trying to imply i'm scum for it (when i know you don't have a scumread on me playwise when (1) you probably would've said something about it by now if you had it since (2) you said yourself you can't read me for shit) when "town w bad reads" should sound like a more plausible explanation is uh. puzzling to say the least.

So's this.

[mastina]

Should i just sheep Mastina on their Bingle read?

That, or my + Datisi's read on The Limit Does Not Exist.

I'm not exactly picky as to which.

[mastina]

What are your current takes on FC? What would Bingletown do to your reads?

These are things I will answer!

...On D3.

VOTE: The Limit Does Not Exist

More votes/support here than on Bingle.

[mastina]

More over, why are you giving up on plurality elim?

Relying on plurality is how we got a Titus flip D1. A flip I very much did not approve of.

Forgive me for not having confidence in plurality serving us well D2 especially given that plurality is very likely the only way we'd end up with eliminations on slots like RCE, T3, Emperor, etc. today instead of TLDNE or Bingle.

What are you doing?

Trying to eliminate scum.

[mastina]

I also feel like a strong earlt game presence and then a tapering off could be scum indicative for the green bois.

Could be, but I've my own idea for why it isn't. Datisi for instance is...otherwise occupied and regardless of Datisi's alignment, I would expect that this game would not be at the top of his priority list right now. Given enough time, I'd expect this game to rise up in priority for him but right now I've good reason to believe he wouldn't be prioritizing here.

I dont see any scum motivation is confirming that we and only we shot st bingle if they are scum with bingle.

Counterpoint: I don't see any town motivation. The scum motive is to look town, but I don't see any town motive to

actually

do what they did.

[mastina]

I can kinda see what Mastina is saying now. But it took some time to translate it internally within myself to really understand what they were saying.
I get thr vibe that Bingle is playing very reactively and trying to do exactly what is required to avoid the lim. Rather than solving for real and of their own voalition.

That is a problem I often get; I make good points but it takes translation for people to understand that they were in fact good points.

Butyeah, I do not believe there's zero scum in {Bingle, TLDNE, Fairy Circle}.
It's not three scum in there, obviously, but beyond that I want to wait until D3 to give a full breakdown...ideally with the names in there mostly dead. Bingle and TLDNE are the two that I most strongly believe in being scum and are the two I am most pushing.

Limit is a pretty shit wagon, tbh. It gives no more info than Titus’ did yesterday.

To the contrary!

There's literally only three wagons which give us information:

The Limit Does Not Exist, Bingle, and sure I guess Fairy Circle.

Flips on any of those would give us boatloads of information regardless of the alignments within.

Literally any elimination outside of that? RCE, T3, Dwlee, Emperor, you name it?

That

would be a wagon giving no more info than Titus's did yesterday.

There's a damn good reason why I'm pushing the TLDNE/Bingle wagons so hard right now.

[mastina]

Mind explaining why? I don’t see a particularly strong case to town or scum them.

I feel like the biggest thing on lilith is lack of presence

It's more than lack of presence.

I haven't read most (any) of the long posts. I won't have time to catch up fully until next week probably

Oh? Then why did you put so much time/effort into reading MY long posts on Bingle all of a sudden?

Could it be because you felt the need to protect him?

It's what they've done while present. For a player who had said they hadn't read the long posts, TLDNE seemed strangely knowledgeable about my push on Bingle and had a lot to say there, showing them to be weirdly informed on the subject beyond what they said.

Beyond that,

Mastina, sell me on LimitScum.

Don't really need to. It's mostly POE. I have townreads on most players in the game. I don't have a townread on TheLimitDoesNotExist. This, in spite of both heads being heads that I would expect to be able to generate townreads on. They're too reserved, too passive, too not-making-wavesey. They're doing basically nothing, and certainly nothing which looks town.

Does that make them lockscum? Where an absence of doing much of anything makes them be definitely scum? No, not on its own. But when you combine it with a combination of expecting them to radiate town + everyone else looking town + their defense of slots I am suspicious of + their lackluster content + other players I'd expect to be able to read them not having lock-solid townreads on them (basically, I would expect other players who're town to be able to locktown them if they were town and yet as far as I can tell that hasn't happened) all adds up to a lean scum read.

I have townreads on most players to reasonable strengths--TLDNE is not among them. While POE is not damning on its own in of itself, there's also the fact that in the entirety of their content, there is nothing that I can townread. Something_Smart is a slot that I would expect to be able to get a read on one way or another but his lack of content here makes it basically impossible to get a read on him one way or another, which is a red flag.

lilith is not a slot that I know much about, lacking much history there but for some reason I seem to recall hearing that lilith is very very easily obvtown when she is town, that she has a very easy time displaying herself to be town, and that is utterly absent from this game. Both to me, and largely, to others who can read her.

While being busy with other stuff can be understandable, it's not what they're not doing which bothers me; it's what they're doing when they're around. Which is to say, a lot of this:

but if you wanna go that route, fine. you feel flat as fuck and for someone who's supposed to be very easy to obvtown, it's a horrible look. i don't care you had the other game where you were in f3. i don't care about who has more or fewer posts, when most of your posts were either screaming at mastina, throwing a fit at anyone looking at you for acting scummy, or s_s throwing out unmemorable comments. the way that you're latching onto things like this and spewing ate while not actually offering content to solve looks bad.

but you're free to actually offer some content and lay out how this is apparently not all that different from us last game.

The little content they HAVE shown DOES have a huge amount of focus in areas that simply put: don't look like town areas for them to have focused on. There's very little in the way of gamesolving or trying to further the gamestate. There's a decent amount of defense of Bingle, which is mutual, as Bingle has also been defending TLDNE somewhat.

It's a bunch of things adding up.
POE and them being outside of it.
A lack of them looking town at all.
The content they post being lackluster when it is posted.
The content they post focusing on areas that don't look like areas town would focus on.
Associatives with Bingle.

Nothing on its own is damning, but it adds up to a pretty damn high likelihood that they're just scum.

[mastina]

Where is Mastina anyway.

Dealing with crippling depression and also getting a referral from my doctor, mostly.

Btw i don’t know if this has been brought up earlier. But if you have healing potions it might be wise to use them on slots that are likely nightkill targets for scum.

Healing potions on TLDNE or Bingle will be treated as a scumclaim tho.

Dead serious I don't care if I had you at GCB level of town in my readslist, healing either of those two slots is legitimately genuinely a scumclaim.

[mastina]

If limit is scum someone is definitely bussing here but none of the pushes feel like bussing so limit is probably just flipping town here.

Counterpoint; could it perhaps be that the reason so many counterwagons to Limit are cropping up be due to the fact that scum really don't want a Limit wagon to go through and are desperate to find a wagon on someone,

anyone

, for it to not?

Attempts to wagon Bingle (who admittedly could be scum with a fairly decent chance but actually believe it or not I have a stronger scumread on TLDNE than I do Bingle, surprisingly enough, so if there's a town between the two slots and a scum between the two slots I'd be more inclined to think the scum as Limit than Bingle even though I am fully aware both have a good chance to be scum).

Attempts to wagon Fairy Circle (who admittedly could be scum especially if Bingle isn't although I would say this would be weird--Bingle if scum with Limit could feasibly be a wagon scum would prefer if Bingle wasn't lying about zero pain potions in spite of him being scum, meaning if Bingle+Limit were scum and if Bingle had no pain potions, scum would prefer Bingle > Limit as the lim...but Fairy Circle vs. Limit has no such incentive meaning that it makes no sense for scum to wagon Fairy Circle if Fairy Circle were scum with TLDNE).

Attempts, successful to a fair degree, to wagon RCEnigma.

Attempts to wagon T3, with some success.

I think there's been people giving ideas to wagon Dwlee or Norwee although I don't think those attempts are as successful as the above two examples.

I get that the resistance to a Limit elimination is not all scum. Town can be wrong and town even if right can get paranoid, thinking "there's a lack of reliable resistance" or something like that, thinking that no counterwagon which has stuck could be a clearing factor for Limit (which I argue is backwards and that a lack of a sticking counterwagon to Limit is actually evidence that they're scum but I digress).

But I keep looking at all of the counterwagons rising, most of them with lackluster logic and reasoning and something of an air of desperation to them, and I can't help but think, "while town not having good direction can be a part of this, this also has to have scum influence behind it". And that's one of the reasons why I want a Limit elimination.

I think the reasons for Limit to be scum are good, and the reasons for Limit to not be scum are lackluster, and that a Limit flip regardless of their alignment sheds more light on the alignment of all the players by giving us a much better understanding of the gamestate for all of D2 and that with their death, we will have a far better grasp of town vs. scum going into the night and tomorrow.

Now, I can actually explain some of the "Limit-town means x, Limit-scum means y" logic, but given the gamestate right now, one of the reasons I want to stave off doing this and have been saying "I will reveal this on D3" is that honestly: I don't want to do the massive amount of theorywork, theorycrafting, hypothesizing, analysis, for whichever alignment Limit isn't. I want to save the time/effort involved and cut it in half and do all of it after the fact, aided by the information from any flips we get on N2.

I do have a decent mental draft of it in my head. It's not rock-solid, it's not something concrete, but it's something I genuinely believe would be the best for the gamestate and I can explain more...
...On D3.

[mastina]

How does your read on me change if limit flips town? Scum?

As hinted at, I can do that now theoretically but I genuinely honestly would just prefer to do this...on D3. After we've got half of the equation. There's a lot of number crunching involved because it doesn't involve just your slot; it also involves every slot in the game and cross-referencing them to get a better lock. Much easier to do with at least half of the possibilities removed, if not more. (For every flip we get N2, the amount of work I need to do lessens. A downside to the scum is that for every kill they make, they reduce the number of players who could be scum and increase the number of players confirmed to be town so unless we eliminate town and the scum can make three eliminations happen on town with none on scum, scum, scum cannot endgame overnight and given scum endgaming overnight requires the stars aligning pretty much perfectly, if they attempt to do this but fail, D3 gives a plethora of flips and information to work with.)

Who can’t be scum with limit?

Well, for a start, Green Cap Boys, obviously.
I'd think I'm also fairly clear as well, objectively speaking.

Beyond that we get into the realm of uncertainty and guessing at probabilities versus possibilities in crunching the mental math odds with each slot--and again, I'd prefer to not do that work until D3 after we've either confirmed or denied (anticonfirmed? negative-confirmed?) that the slot is scum.

I COULD do that work now with a LOT of effort, but I really don't have it in me.

[mastina]

If limit is scum someone is definitely bussing here but none of the pushes feel like bussing so limit is probably just flipping town here.

Counterpoint; could it perhaps be that the reason so many counterwagons to Limit are cropping up be due to the fact that scum really don't want a Limit wagon to go through and are desperate to find a wagon on someone,

anyone

, for it to not?

Attempts to wagon Bingle (who admittedly could be scum with a fairly decent chance but actually believe it or not I have a stronger scumread on TLDNE than I do Bingle, surprisingly enough, so if there's a town between the two slots and a scum between the two slots I'd be more inclined to think the scum as Limit than Bingle even though I am fully aware both have a good chance to be scum).

Attempts to wagon Fairy Circle (who admittedly could be scum especially if Bingle isn't although I would say this would be weird--Bingle if scum with Limit could feasibly be a wagon scum would prefer if Bingle wasn't lying about zero pain potions in spite of him being scum, meaning if Bingle+Limit were scum and if Bingle had no pain potions, scum would prefer Bingle > Limit as the lim...but Fairy Circle vs. Limit has no such incentive meaning that it makes no sense for scum to wagon Fairy Circle if Fairy Circle were scum with TLDNE).

Attempts, successful to a fair degree, to wagon RCEnigma.

Attempts to wagon T3, with some success.

I think there's been people giving ideas to wagon Dwlee or Norwee although I don't think those attempts are as successful as the above two examples.

I get that the resistance to a Limit elimination is not all scum. Town can be wrong and town even if right can get paranoid, thinking "there's a lack of reliable resistance" or something like that, thinking that no counterwagon which has stuck could be a clearing factor for Limit (which I argue is backwards and that a lack of a sticking counterwagon to Limit is actually evidence that they're scum but I digress).

But I keep looking at all of the counterwagons rising, most of them with lackluster logic and reasoning and something of an air of desperation to them, and I can't help but think, "while town not having good direction can be a part of this, this also has to have scum influence behind it". And that's one of the reasons why I want a Limit elimination.

I think the reasons for Limit to be scum are good, and the reasons for Limit to not be scum are lackluster, and that a Limit flip regardless of their alignment sheds more light on the alignment of all the players by giving us a much better understanding of the gamestate for all of D2 and that with their death, we will have a far better grasp of town vs. scum going into the night and tomorrow.

Now, I can actually explain some of the "Limit-town means x, Limit-scum means y" logic, but given the gamestate right now, one of the reasons I want to stave off doing this and have been saying "I will reveal this on D3" is that honestly: I don't want to do the massive amount of theorywork, theorycrafting, hypothesizing, analysis, for whichever alignment Limit isn't. I want to save the time/effort involved and cut it in half and do all of it after the fact, aided by the information from any flips we get on N2.

I do have a decent mental draft of it in my head. It's not rock-solid, it's not something concrete, but it's something I genuinely believe would be the best for the gamestate and I can explain more...
...On D3.

Also pagetopping this.

[mastina]

It is XLO if there is damage done on three town, scum have 3 pain pots, no town jk/doc a no target, AND no scum die tonight. If we eliminate someone who has been pained, it drops the odds of one or three. Scum having three pain pots split between their members remaining isn’t a sure thing by any means.

This is another reason for the Limit elimination btw. And another reason I've focused on {Limit, Bingle, Fairy Circle}.

TLDNE is the best elimination for the game and it's not just because I think that they are the slot with the highest chance of being scum; they are also the slot I genuinely think gives the town the most information regardless of their flip (with Bingle and Fairy Circle a close second/third) in that regard as well as one of the slots we lose the least from eliminating (in that it removes a potential scum wincon even if they are town).

[mastina]

Why are they scum other than
OMG SHITTY REACTION TO PUSH
and
LACK OF PRESENCE
and
OVERREACTION
it's pretty clear that lilith isn't kept up with the game, imo and what kind of information can they even give, given they have barely any interactions with anyone in the game?

All of those things individually would be signs of a slot being scum--none of them damning on their own, sure. Any single one of them in of itself wouldn't be reason enough to scumread the slot, but all three together are, while not hard-damning the slot, still condemning. The slot has a lot of reasons to be scum.

So the counterpoint I ask you; what reasons does the slot have to be town? I've seen falling for the AtE as a reason to townread them (when the AtE is plainly nai), I've seen "people are pushing them and I think the pushes on them make them town", I've seen "stale gamestate", but I've not seen any good reason for them to be town.

I do admit it's possible they could be town. But the evidence does genuinely point to them being scum more likely than not to me.

[mastina]

May I receive a quick de-brief before I attempt to immerse myself in the details?

We're doing a massclaim with your life on the line, so we need you to fullclaim right now or eat the elimination.

[mastina]

Mastina i know you weren’t keen on theorycrafting pre-flip, but do you think T3 is highly likely to be town if Limit!scum based on this push here?

While I've twangs of paranoia here and there, largely due to not knowing what T3's scumgame is like and seeing his play as possible scum:
T3 is one of the slots who I have basically one of the strongest townreads on in the game, honestly.

In terms of reads, I think he's second only to you (with you second only to GCB).

That's without flips.

If there were a TLDNE scumflip, I would in fact think him town. I'm not quite sure if I'd locktown him, but he'd probably increase in towniness to be even more town than you. Not quite as town as GCB but still insanely town overall.

[mastina]

love this look for yall. really i do. mastina’s case on us was actually insane. yall do remember that she was using meta based on

hearsay

of my play and now we’re a policy elim so tomorrow she can be like “no wait! I didn’t say they had to be scum though!”

I can say that now in fact.

I didn't say you have to be scum; I am fully aware that you could be town and I could be wrong.

I happen to think you are scum and I happen to believe that even if I am wrong you were the best possible mislim we could ever make if we were to mislim today.

Which is pretty damn close, admittedly.

But sure, I did technically not say you had to be scum, because you don't have to be.

I just think you are anyway.

[mastina]

love this look for yall. really i do. mastina’s case on us was actually insane. yall do remember that she was using meta based on

hearsay

of my play and now we’re a policy elim so tomorrow she can be like “no wait! I didn’t say they had to be scum though!”

I can say that now in fact.

I didn't say you have to be scum; I am fully aware that you could be town and I could be wrong.

I happen to think you are scum and I happen to believe that even if I am wrong you were the best possible mislim we could ever make if we were to mislim today.

Which is pretty damn close, admittedly.

But sure, I did technically not say you had to be scum, because you don't have to be.

I just think you are anyway.

Basically to put it a different way: We obviously should aim for scum, not for the least-damaging mislim.
Limit if they are town I truly believe would be the least-damaging mislim we could have, but I also happen to have campaigned for their elimination because I genuinely feel they are the slot with the highest odds of flipping scum, and as we should aim for flipping scum, Limit was who I was aiming to eliminate.

So while I may not have said Limit has to be scum.
The sentimentality carried behind "Limit has to be scum!" is more or less there, in that I think that Limit IS scum and if I were wrong (which I don't think I am but it always pays to at least acknowledge the theoretical situation where you COULD be wrong), Limit was the least-damaging mislim to make and best possible non-scum elimination that could happen.

But again to reiterate. I still think Limit is scum here.

We'll find out soon enough I suppose.

[mastina]

I am fully aware that you could be town and I could be wrong.

are you though?

Yes, always. I am ALWAYS aware I could be wrong, but I actually downplay doubts I have most of the time deliberately so because I genuinely think that the town is stronger off if I do not honestly state my doubts in most cases.

Strong scumreads (and, heck, even strong townreads) are

never

as strong as I pretend they are. They are always weaker than they appear because I always have doubts and think that I could be wrong. I push them as being true anyway though because I legitimately feel that the approach does more good than harm, and worst comes to worst, I can always fall back to honesty later-on if need be.

There's nothing stopping me from, at any point, breaking off a tunnel and switching to being honest in my stances/beliefs/etc. And in some rare cases, I will do so. But I do so when there is a need for it, and today I deemed there to not be a need for it.

There will almost assuredly be a need for it on D3 regardless of your alignment, mind you. But I legit thought that getting a flip and rushing into D3 was the healthiest possible thing for the gamestate. It's a calculated risk, obviously. One I could be sorely mistaken about. And if I fuck things up I will own up to the mistake in having miscalculated, having made a mistake and having been in error, but I have to stick to what I feel is the best and I felt like pushing my scumread on you and pushing for your elimination was genuinely the best thing for the game.

[mastina]

no comment on using meta based on hearsay?

I don't see anything comment-worthy in that painting of my play other than that it's disingenuous but a disingenuous painting of it isn't comment-worthy from a slot that is the elimination.

also, the fuck do you think I’m posting here for if we’re scum?

Well, plurality eliminations being in effect does not guarantee that schadd_ locks the thread with an elimination when reaching the elimination threshold. I frankly won't believe you're dead until schadd_ declares you're dead.

So you posting could be out of hope that you're not actually eliminated.

You're not eliminated until the mod says you are so there's always the chance you're still alive. I realize that's my mentality, not necessarily the mentality of everyone, and that I project this mentality onto the expectation I have for all scum players, but the sentimentality remains true all the same.

After all, you're not spending your final moments giving final reads and final reasonings, are you?

[mastina]

also, now that those flips have flipped that, can anyone offer me an actual good reason to townread mastina?

Several, actually. Would you prefer to hear them from me, or from others?

i've been saying since literal day one that mastina's tunnel should not be a reason to townread her but everyone was like "no no no mastina is town by META this is TOWN this push is town mastina she is TOWN because META" so like what was i supposed to do

Do your own research? Like, maybe the fact that so many players are saying I am town is because they are intimately familiar with the sheer night and day difference between my towngame and my scumgame? In the last two, three, years or so, my scumgame has been painfully, painfully, PAINFULLY obvious and my towngame has also been painfully, PAINFULLY obvious.

You don't have to take the word of everyone--but perhaps consider that the options are:
Everyone was misinformed because somehow some way I just so happened to have pulled off a scumgame performance the likes of which they have never ever seen before, a scumgame better than any scumgame I have had for literally years, able to fool the likes of players who have topped the charts in ability to read my alignment for years, suddenly inexplicably randomly in this game out of the blue for no reason whatsoever, that I managed to overnight pull off a massive improvement to my scumgame for some random reason...

...Or that everyone was right and they knew I was town because doing any modicum of research will plainly show that, actually, yes, it really IS that obvious that I am town and when I am scum it is just. that. obvious.

You can do the research on your own or you can even ask for my assistance and I can readily provide you with every scumgame I've had and every towngame I have and for you to look them over and see for yourself. Suffice to say should you do that research though there literally is only one conclusion; either I am making a literally god-tiered sudden inexplicable replication of my towngame as scum in spite of years of being unable to do so, or this is another towngame just like most of my other towngames.

But if you wanna go "meta is trash" in spite of how, in this case, it very much isn't? The main credit I have is defending Titus on D1 and the fury I have and the passion I have and the insistence on D3 that I have and the night actions I have committed and such. (See below for more on that.)

Why weren't you here yesterday I was saying Mastina is evil

Dwlee I fucking

dare

you to vote me.

Dead serious here: DARE. A fucking DARE. I'm legitimately dead serious here in

daring

you to vote me. If you are town then the blame for the loss after scum piles on lies solely on you for not realizing that I'm town here in spite of you having every reason to know that I am town here, but far more likely? If as I suspect you are in fact scum, you're entering a 1v1 with me. I am quite confident I can out-duel you in a 1v1 given that I am town and if you are scum that you are scum for multiple reasons.

So I AM dead serious about that dare.

I fully expect you to be a coward and not take me up on it, for good reason, because if you cast the first vote, if you cast the first stone in that fight, regardless of your alignment you probably lose.

After all: my job gets a lot simpler if instead of needing to identify three scum, I have one identified for me. So go ahead--make my day. Vote me and see how it works out for you. This is not a threat, it is a promise and a guarantee. I know I am town and if I am wrong about you being scum and you happen to be town you should fucking know that I am town. But as it so happens, I

don't

think I am wrong about you being scum.

mastina

I am explicitly not claiming because Dwlee wants me to claim and in fact him wanting me to claim first is incentive for me to not do so.

Unfortunately.

In order to fulfill my promise of explaining things on D3, I need to claim my night action anyway.

On N2, I pain potion'd Reinheirdt (the Bingle slot).

I really don't know what you're planning but i'm not complaining Mastina.

It's really not much of a plan if I'm honest.

Getting into this, the basic outline of my plan was nothing special. Originally, my plan was as such;

I actually don't think Fairy Circle is scum--I'm not convinced they're town, but I no longer think that they are scum.

I want scum to think that I do, though.

I want to eliminate one of {Bingle, TLDNE} and then pain potion the other, with the hopes of between the two, killing at least one scum.

If I live to D3, if the game is still ongoing and if I am still alive, I plan on doing a full reset (regardless of the flips of those two) and reevaluating everything. My first suspect would actually be RCE by default, but I want to see the flips of D2/N2 and the information claimed to figure things out on D3.

Like I said, it's not much of a plan. A bit of obfuscation, probably pointlessly so, but it's the best I can come up with.

I recorded this thought for myself, but my thoughts continued to evolve after I wrote that as a basic note to myself (to record my intentions and make sure I didn't forget them, more or less).

When it came to the Bingle and TLDNE slots, I chose to use a modified version of a philosophy from Lady Lambdadelta. I can't find the quote where she explains this philosophy (I thought it was in defcon 4 but can't find it there), but my version basically amounted to: I wanted to push for the removal of the slots I felt would be the largest obstacle in the town solving the game and getting cohesion. (I realize that mentality is somewhat toxic, and I do apologize for it, but I genuinely believed that, toxic as that mentality may have been, it'd be the key towards a town victory by removing

every

possible distraction from the town and leaving the town with no convenient scapegoats, no convenient mislims, allowing for them to hone in on scummy behavior

actually

indicative of scum.)

I believed those to be the TLDNE and Bingle slots, and with both being pain potion'd N1, that meant eliminating one and pain potioning the other would get the intended results. I realized it was a risk, because obviously, in the worst of worst case scenarios, we wouldn't see a D3, but even in a lesser of the worst case scenarios, the end result of that all would be two dead town at minimum.

Over the course of the end of the day, I began to feel that instead of {TLDNE, Bingle, technically-Fairy-Circle} containing a minimum of one scum, that it would contain a maximum of one scum. I knew that wagoning them could thus potentially derail scum wagons elsewhere, e.g. on the likes of Dwlee or RCE (who top the list of suspects, barring a reread).

mastina is town by overall meta, Fairy is town for meta in response the pressure from Flea, Norwee is town for meta in response to pressure, GCB is town for Datisi's emotion in terms of meta.

I have thoughts on this but I won't share them unless I live to see D3.

Going back to this, I was actually planning on saying that I agreed with T3 here 100% on all of these reads today, but obviously, with some healthy skepticism needed as to not make a mylo/lylo mistake. As in, I fully agreed that Fairy Circle was town by meta and Norwee was town by meta and GCB was likely town by meta and that T3, for these observations, was incredibly likely to be town.

Again, to reiterate: I cannot blindly assume from these that the scumteam would be those not among the named, of it being Dwlee-RCE-Aristeia. All of those assumptions require rechecking and reassessment with the information from the flips thusfar that we have had, in order to get a better idea of which players are probably town in general, which players can only be scum with a specific scumteam, which players are more likely to fit as a scumteam, etc.

But it fit as an initial "theory", which, so to speak, would then be so to speak scientifically tested, by analyzing the evidence and seeing if the assumptions held true, looking for every doubt in the theory, every thing that would contradict it, every weakness in the theory, but also if this so to speak gutcheck initial hypothesis had merit to it.

If you think I'm bullshitting having townread Fairy Circle in spite of my posts yesterday:

I threw down a bingle vote when I came back, we even threw him a potion at night. What dp you think pf that

I'll tell you if I am alive on D3. (If you/Mom are really REALLY smart between you two you might be able to figure it out on your own but if you can't, wait until D3.)

This was me signaling to them that I was townreading them. I repeatedly said that it was something that either individual head might not be able to figure out but that the combination of their hydra might be able to piece together. Momrangal has the experience with past-mastina to know that this is the sort of thing that, while rare, I would occasionally do. Where I would keep a read close to my chest and not reveal it to others because I didn't want my revealed read to affect others. Flea would lack that knowledge, but Flea would have the recent experience with me to notice I was trying to signal

something

to faer, and that I had the experience with fae to have developed that townread but a need to not express it publicly.

While I don't want to give a full readslist unless I live to D3, I do at least want to give a PARTIAL readslist today:

Never Eliminating or Pain Potioning:

Green Cap Boys
NorwegianboyEE

Probably Not Eliminating or Pain Potioning:

T3

Possibly Not Eliminating or Pain Potioning:

The Emperor (almost put him in above category for what it's worth tho)
Dwlee99

Beyond that, you'll just have to wait and see.

The reason for this format in my readslist was to not give away the Fairy Circle townread and that they were outside of my POE. I wanted scum to

think

I thought them viable, and the only way I could do this was by obscuring them and leaving them in the remainder in spite of them truthfully being either at the T3 level or the level above. Because the beyond that, was something crucial and important.

You're trying to read Mom thinking faer me. Soooo no. I can't work it out. Because your basis is wrong.

I assure you, I'm not. When Mom is around I hope you can ask her what she thinks since this is the sort of thing that I don't think you can figure out on your own and which she might not be able to figure out on her own but between the two of you you might be able to piece together what I've been getting at.

So I watched t3 last night and no one harmed them. I picked t3 because I thought two things: if t3 is scum, we could get clears cause I thought town might dump shots there. And if t3 is town, scum might attack him because they'd suspect he is unlikely to be watched. That no one attacked him makes me think now that t3 might be evil.

For the record, I don't currently think Dwlee is scum but this is perfectly plausible of Dwlee being scum as it is exactly the sort of action he would do as scum knowing he would do it as town.

But that's not something to tackle today. Today I've got a limited vote pool and Dwlee is outside of that today.

Both of these were important. The first half was continued attempts to signal to Fairy Circle, and only Fairy Circle specifically, that I was townreading them.

The second half was deliberately chosen in wording as it was at this point that I began to doubt Dwlee, via seeing the similarity between Dwlee's 1672 with Dwlee's scumplay in Open Draft Mafia. It was my way of saying:
"I currently don't have Dwlee as scum, but he'll top my charts tomorrow as an initial suspect, which I will need to sift through in more detail tomorrow on D3. I don't think a Dwlee elimination D2 will remove the cloud of doubt on the town the same way Bingle/TLDNE would, so I'm tabling the read there until D3, where I will reassess things in full. I

currently

don't think he's scum, but if my assessment of the game is very flawed, he's one of the first places I'll look." (Thus my wording in 1799 being "

current

assumption

overall

". Current and overall both being key words there.)

Is it just me or does this game feel really dead and tired.

I mean that's what happens when the folks who drive the D1 elimination don't actually get anything from said elimination* and the folks who WOULD get something from an elimination of their choice* didn't get an elimination of their choice and there being no nightkill. (It's almost like the Titus elimination didn't change the game at all whereas other eliminations would have.)

We're effectively in a D1 part two.

*What I more or less mean by this is, whenever an elimination of my choice goes through, it has a big noticeable impact on my play the following day regardless of the alignment of the eliminated player. It forces a shift from me where my play changes and adapts as a direct consequence of the flip.
The players who pushed Titus yesterday are, today, playing exactly the same as they did yesterday. The Titus flip had no noticeable impact on their play. They didn't shift, they didn't adapt. They're exactly the same as they were before the Titus elimination. Meanwhile since a Titus flip is not a flip I endorsed, it had no noticeable impact on my play the following day because it wasn't a flip I wanted. No shift from me because there's nothing different today to tomorrow for me.

Here I more or less outlined basically my motives behind pushing Bingle/TLDNE. I felt that removing them from the game would be a huge shift in the gamestate, forcing everyone--myself included--to radically shift their approach. It felt like it was the only way to make sure that going forward, we had a damn good grasp on all of the events in the game.

And given the time, it would allow us to recheck, reassess, everything, do a full reread and a full "Once More, With Clarity" read of the game to understand things we initially got the wrong idea/impression of.

Should i just sheep Mastina on their Bingle read?

That, or my + Datisi's read on The Limit Does Not Exist.

I'm not exactly picky as to which.

I kinda sorta tipped my hand here to the townread on Fairy Circle by not including them in the list here, if you want more evidence that I'm not bullshitting having developed a townread on their slot yesterday in spite of continuing to list them in the elimination pool.

What are your current takes on FC? What would Bingletown do to your reads?

These are things I will answer!

...On D3.

Same here.

As for Bingle-town, this requires a full reread to get nuanced thoughts on. My initial thoughts were basically:
As Bingle-town meant no scum had been wagoned up high beyond fleeting wagons which capped at 3 and were never the majority for any signifcant period of time, scum could do whatever they want and say whatever they want and be at very little risk (but this requires research that my reread will be verifying);
Bingle's reads were sincere and need a revisit that I genuinely take to heart;
The scumteam did not act under the guide of Bingle's plan so I should look to theorize what the scum, not following Bingle's plan, actually did (which is possible, but requires research done through a reread);
The chances rise exponentially for certain players to be scum and for others to be town but the exact combination of this I need to do a reread to figure out for sure.

I realize it's not concrete

yet

, because inherent in this is that I needed the Bingle townflip to start it, meaning I couldn't do this overnight; I needed to wait for my pain potion on his slot to go through and kill him. In order to start the work, D3 needed to have started, so I haven't done it YET, but I have a good outline for what I need to do, where I need to look, what I am looking for, the signs I am looking for, etc.

Forgive me for not having confidence in plurality serving us well D2 especially given that plurality is very likely the only way we'd end up with eliminations on slots like RCE, T3, Emperor, etc. today instead of TLDNE or Bingle.

What are you doing?

Trying to eliminate scum.

Here was another attempt to hint at my plan without revealing it. I didn't want an elimination on RCE, T3, Emperor/Aristeia, etc., in spite of believing there needed to be scum within there. Because I knew that while a scumflip within there would be good as dead scum is better than living scum, a wrong townflip within there would be disastrous as a Titus V2 which would leave the gamestate on D3 unchanged.

In short, I valued the guarantee of good information (which happened to include my two highest scumreads) over the chance of a scum flip that had too much chance of hitting town and giving us shitty information. Basically, it was a risk-reward analysis. The risk behind eliminating TLDNE/Bingle and pain potioning the other was virtually nil; the reward for that was incredible as it could have netted 1-2 scum and even if both were town, it would give us an actual tangible amount of workable leads on D3.

In contrast, the risk behind eliminating outside of TLDNE was hitting town and not having a changed gamestate on D3, all for a

chance

at the reward of flipping scum.

So this was why, in spite of thinking RCE had a decent chance of being scum, I was against his elimination. The risk was too high, because if I was wrong about him being scum, nothing would change in D3 and I was not in any way shape or form highly confident in him being scum.

Butyeah, I do not believe there's zero scum in {Bingle, TLDNE, Fairy Circle}.
It's not three scum in there, obviously, but beyond that I want to wait until D3 to give a full breakdown...ideally with the names in there mostly dead. Bingle and TLDNE are the two that I most strongly believe in being scum and are the two I am most pushing.

Limit is a pretty shit wagon, tbh. It gives no more info than Titus’ did yesterday.

To the contrary!

There's literally only three wagons which give us information:

The Limit Does Not Exist, Bingle, and sure I guess Fairy Circle.

Flips on any of those would give us boatloads of information regardless of the alignments within.

Literally any elimination outside of that? RCE, T3, Dwlee, Emperor, you name it?

That

would be a wagon giving no more info than Titus's did yesterday.

There's a damn good reason why I'm pushing the TLDNE/Bingle wagons so hard right now.

Here I was afraid I basically was spilling the beans on my plan, because I gave big hints that I wasn't interested in killing Fairy Circle and gave huge hints towards the reason/motive for pushing Bingle/TLDNE as hard as I did.

I think the reasons for Limit to be scum are good, and the reasons for Limit to not be scum are lackluster, and that a Limit flip regardless of their alignment sheds more light on the alignment of all the players by giving us a much better understanding of the gamestate for all of D2 and that with their death, we will have a far better grasp of town vs. scum going into the night and tomorrow.

Now, I can actually explain some of the "Limit-town means x, Limit-scum means y" logic, but given the gamestate right now, one of the reasons I want to stave off doing this and have been saying "I will reveal this on D3" is that honestly: I don't want to do the massive amount of theorywork, theorycrafting, hypothesizing, analysis, for whichever alignment Limit isn't. I want to save the time/effort involved and cut it in half and do all of it after the fact, aided by the information from any flips we get on N2.

I do have a decent mental draft of it in my head. It's not rock-solid, it's not something concrete, but it's something I genuinely believe would be the best for the gamestate and I can explain more...
...On D3.

This was another huge hint of the plan, where I basically outlined part of the motive behind it. I DO have an initial draft of what the townflips mean. It's not something that is enough to lay a vote down without research and verification and whatnot, but I actually did do some loose rough theorycrafting of what townflips would mean. But in order to solidify that, I need to read specific parts of the game with this info, which required me having the info.

How does your read on me change if limit flips town? Scum?

As hinted at, I can do that now theoretically but I genuinely honestly would just prefer to do this...on D3. After we've got half of the equation. There's a lot of number crunching involved because it doesn't involve just your slot; it also involves every slot in the game and cross-referencing them to get a better lock. Much easier to do with at least half of the possibilities removed, if not more. (For every flip we get N2, the amount of work I need to do lessens. A downside to the scum is that for every kill they make, they reduce the number of players who could be scum and increase the number of players confirmed to be town so unless we eliminate town and the scum can make three eliminations happen on town with none on scum, scum, scum cannot endgame overnight and given scum endgaming overnight requires the stars aligning pretty much perfectly, if they attempt to do this but fail, D3 gives a plethora of flips and information to work with.)

Who can’t be scum with limit?

Well, for a start, Green Cap Boys, obviously.
I'd think I'm also fairly clear as well, objectively speaking.

Beyond that we get into the realm of uncertainty and guessing at probabilities versus possibilities in crunching the mental math odds with each slot--and again, I'd prefer to not do that work until D3 after we've either confirmed or denied (anticonfirmed? negative-confirmed?) that the slot is scum.

I COULD do that work now with a LOT of effort, but I really don't have it in me.

Here's more and explaining more or less why I couldn't do this until just now. I didn't know Limit was town after all so I couldn't do the work assuming Limit was town before a Limit flip.

It is XLO if there is damage done on three town, scum have 3 pain pots, no town jk/doc a no target, AND no scum die tonight. If we eliminate someone who has been pained, it drops the odds of one or three. Scum having three pain pots split between their members remaining isn’t a sure thing by any means.

This is another reason for the Limit elimination btw. And another reason I've focused on {Limit, Bingle, Fairy Circle}.

TLDNE is the best elimination for the game and it's not just because I think that they are the slot with the highest chance of being scum; they are also the slot I genuinely think gives the town the most information regardless of their flip (with Bingle and Fairy Circle a close second/third) in that regard as well as one of the slots we lose the least from eliminating (in that it removes a potential scum wincon even if they are town).

I basically gave it away, here, too.

love this look for yall. really i do. mastina’s case on us was actually insane. yall do remember that she was using meta based on

hearsay

of my play and now we’re a policy elim so tomorrow she can be like “no wait! I didn’t say they had to be scum though!”

I can say that now in fact.

I didn't say you have to be scum; I am fully aware that you could be town and I could be wrong.

I happen to think you are scum and I happen to believe that even if I am wrong you were the best possible mislim we could ever make if we were to mislim today.

Which is pretty damn close, admittedly.

But sure, I did technically not say you had to be scum, because you don't have to be.

I just think you are anyway.

Basically to put it a different way: We obviously should aim for scum, not for the least-damaging mislim.
Limit if they are town I truly believe would be the least-damaging mislim we could have, but I also happen to have campaigned for their elimination because I genuinely feel they are the slot with the highest odds of flipping scum, and as we should aim for flipping scum, Limit was who I was aiming to eliminate.

So while I may not have said Limit has to be scum.
The sentimentality carried behind "Limit has to be scum!" is more or less there, in that I think that Limit IS scum and if I were wrong (which I don't think I am but it always pays to at least acknowledge the theoretical situation where you COULD be wrong), Limit was the least-damaging mislim to make and best possible non-scum elimination that could happen.

But again to reiterate. I still think Limit is scum here.

We'll find out soon enough I suppose.

This was in my own way a preemptive apology to lillith/SS as I imagine they're less than enthused as to the nature of my plan and rather miffed at it. After all, the plan does have some toxic elements to it from the LLDesque mindset that inspired it.

There's nothing stopping me from, at any point, breaking off a tunnel and switching to being honest in my stances/beliefs/etc. And in some rare cases, I will do so. But I do so when there is a need for it, and today I deemed there to not be a need for it.

There will almost assuredly be a need for it on D3 regardless of your alignment, mind you. But I legit thought that getting a flip and rushing into D3 was the healthiest possible thing for the gamestate. It's a calculated risk, obviously. One I could be sorely mistaken about. And if I fuck things up I will own up to the mistake in having miscalculated, having made a mistake and having been in error, but I have to stick to what I feel is the best and I felt like pushing my scumread on you and pushing for your elimination was genuinely the best thing for the game.

Here I also basically spilled the beans on the plan. My plan was a TLDNE + Bingle flip to get us into the best possible D3 gamestate where we would have the most clarity and unambiguity.



Unrelated, but still important to clarify now that I am able to:

I also feel like a strong earlt game presence and then a tapering off could be scum indicative for the green bois.

Could be, but I've my own idea for why it isn't. Datisi for instance is...otherwise occupied and regardless of Datisi's alignment, I would expect that this game would not be at the top of his priority list right now. Given enough time, I'd expect this game to rise up in priority for him but right now I've good reason to believe he wouldn't be prioritizing here.

For the record, I DID notice the contrast between Datisi in this game and Datisi in tris's mini normal that I designed. (I was, after all, reading along.) Datisi's effort in that game was evident in a way absent from this game, but I was willing to give the benefit of the doubt that the reason Datisi wasn't as hardcore overdrive in THIS game was due to him being hardcore overdrive in THAT game.

I still am willing to give that benefit of the doubt to some degree, but I admit that there is some caution behind it. I can't blindly beyond-any-shadow-of-a-doubt townbin Datisi because the contrast between the two games IS rather stark, and I cannot afford to ignore it even if I believe that the contrast was not indicative of an alignment but rather indicative of which game he was most focused on. I still think Datisi is town and that the difference was precisely what I say here, a focus on that game meaning no focus on this one, but I cannot have blind 100% faith in that assumption as it's at least

possible

the difference is due to alignment even if I currently believe otherwise.

It takes time and research to determine, which I've yet to put in but plan to.

[mastina]

Hopefully everyone keeps up their morale. I will think about this game when i'm working my shift tommorow.

While it sucks to have been wrong on BOTH Bingle AND TLDNE, my hope with my plan was that with them gone we would have precisely that, actually:
Morale.

I feel incredibly guilty and the dead have every right to be pissed at me for my plan and for my wrong reads on them and to be miffed that my plan called for their deaths, and I do genuinely apologize for both aspects of it; the wrong scumreads AND the condemnation of them as part of the plan. I sincerely, genuinely, felt it was for the best and that their deaths would not in fact lower morale but regardless of their flips would serve as a way to raise morale in letting us know what had transpired in the previous days with them being game-long focuses and, so to speak, "distractions".

If I fuck up and end up, after having planned for both of them to be eliminated, voting town and losing the game, I take 100% of the fault for the loss every step of the way as it was genuinely my bad. It legitimately would be completely and totally my fault, start to finish, and I'd owe no less than 100% of the total blame for having cost the town the game literally singlehandedly.

Which is why I am planning to use basically every second of the day to do the work I promised I would. I'm not going to be able to do it all tonight (I've got other obligations to attend to), but it starts with engaging everyone and explaining what my plan was, which I did in 2475.

(And I realize that's a long post with multiple parts to it but it IS important and you shouldn't skim it, you NEED to read it ALL, actually

read

it read it, as in, read it, process the words, digest them, and take them in, rather than reading them and having them go in one ear and right out the other.)

I'm thinking
So Dwlee/RCE are in the PoE and probably not scum together. Ari is the only one left outside of my locktowns [mastina, Norwee, GCB]
so uh this 'locktown isn't really locktown'
Ari is basically 100% scum here unless I just suck at reading s/s interactions

For the record, my own townieness scale right now:

Norwee

>

T3 > GCB >> Aristeia ~= RCE >>> Dwlee.

However, this is just a loose rough initial thoughts and requires BOATLOADS of research and fact-checking and pairing interactions to see. I know that right now I am only talking about what my plan is for the fact-checking rather than actually starting the fact-checking, but I promise that, barring any unforeseen obstacles, I'll be starting that tomorrow. (Again, I have other obligations and there's a lot of work to do and I don't have time to do literally everything tonight. Explaining where I was coming from and what I want to do is better than not having done so today.)

I do truly believe the game is incredibly solvable with a little theory-crafting and fact-checking but it requires time and discussion and lots and lots and lots of reading and analyzing.

[mastina]

Your idea for me scum is that I spent yesterday pushing none of the 3 town all with wagons but instead tried to counterwagon anything else.

Well, yes. The wagons all being town inherently means that them going through does no harm to the scum. It inherently means that the scum can do whatever they want, including pushing different-town or even scum that they are confident won't be yeeted by plurality.

If a scum player has 2-3 votes at deadline but a town player has 4-6, what harm is there in the 2-3 votes on scum coming from scum, especially when the scum voting scum can simply...unvote the scum and bring it down to 0-2 votes on scum?

Inherently: scum have no reason to hard-push for a town elimination when there is no risk of a scum elimination.
Inherently: we know there was no risk of a scum elimination due to every major wagon we've had in the game (Titus, Fairy Circle, Bingle, The Limit Does Not Exist) being on town.
Inherently, given both of the above: with no risk of a scum elimination, scum are more likely to be among the names that were

not

hard-pushing for an elimination.

You top the charts there, but you're not alone.

It's not hard-damning and requires research to show the trends behind to be sure. But there's good reason you're one of my prime suspects.

The gamestate literally gives more evidence for you being scum than any other player--at least to my mental memory of how events played out, and checking my memory is one of the reasons I need to reread the game to make sure said memory is not faulty.

[mastina]

Oh I suppose I should fullclaim as that gives better proof of my mindset here;
At the beginning of the game, I had a watcher-potion (harmography) and a vig-potion (pain potion).

On N1, I took a gamble by using the watcher-potion (harmography) on Green Cap Boys. This was explicitly exactly that; a gamble on my part. There was a good chance I would be the nightkill but I was gambling on scum not nightkilling me for fear of me being watched by a potion of harmography. So I was watching the second most likely nightkill. I (I feel justifiably) felt I was the most likely but if not me GCB should have topped the list.

I felt I was the most likely nightkill for the scum to make. Universally townread (barring GCB's scumread there I guess), and having a naturally threatening playstyle. If I were to die N1, then the correct play would've been to use my pain potion on a scumread as to not let it go to waste. If I died N1, my watch result would be worthless, whereas if I died N1, my pain potion would not be worthless. Meaning that my usage of the watch-potion was explicitly banking on my not being killed N1, which was admittedly a risk.

That's what I meant by gamble.

Because if I were the nightkill N1, the pain potion goes to waste.

If I was NOT the nightkill, however (and per Norwee's watch on me, scum didn't target me N1), then it is probably because the scum fear a watch or protection on me--thus my choice in watch target being not the obvious nightkill of me who I can do nothing about, but the second most likely target for the nightkill.

With GCB having not been targeted for harm, I had no guilty on D2, but that also meant that I would have the ability to pain potion on N2. And with the reveal that both Bingle and TLDNE had taken one source of damage N1 but not two...the plan began to form in my head to eliminate one during the day and pain potion whichever was not the elimination.

So I'm potionless now.

[mastina]

How hard was eliminating RCE yesterday? I’d say quite but i might be remembering wrong. Either way i feel like i should have trusted my gut and kept pushing there.

This tops the charts in being something I intend to investigate btw.

[mastina]

Norwee > T3 > GCB >> Aristeia ~= RCE >>> Dwlee.

Can you elaborate a bit on why T3 is so high and Dwlee so low?

Well for a start, read 2475.

Read it, and have the words stick in your brain rather than have them go in one ear and right out the other.

That should give you at least some idea of where T3 high and Dwlee low comes from.

But basically: T3 looks like town that was genuinely trying to solve, making genuine deductions and looking town and not acting as I would expect to act. He has a certain level of push and in some areas conviction that is very very hard for scum to fake. I've never seen T3 as scum as far as I know so I don't know what he's capable of as scum but he just looks town in almost every way shape and form possible. His thoughts look backed from a place of sincerity where they look genuine and legitimately insightful, and he's put in an amount of effort that I struggle to see as scum.

Dwlee in contrast is hard hard HARD giving off the exact same vibes as Open Draft Mafia. Everything he's doing and saying oozes that energy. It's certainly possible that I am reading into alignment what is playstyle (that being, what looks like carbon copies of his scumgame there are just part of his scumplay), but given the mental map I have of the gamestate (which I admit is just mental right now and needs verification), he checks off the metrics for what I'd expect scum to have done given all of {Titus, FC, Bingle, TLDNE} being town.

Being right about a townread is, after all, easy enough when as scum you know who is town.

[mastina]

Norwee > T3 > GCB >> Aristeia ~= RCE >>> Dwlee.

Can you elaborate a bit on why T3 is so high and Dwlee so low?

Well for a start, read 2475.

Read it, and have the words stick in your brain rather than have them go in one ear and right out the other.

That should give you at least some idea of where T3 high and Dwlee low comes from.

But basically: T3 looks like town that was genuinely trying to solve, making genuine deductions and looking town and not acting as I would expect to act. He has a certain level of push and in some areas conviction that is very very hard for scum to fake. I've never seen T3 as scum as far as I know so I don't know what he's capable of as scum but he just looks town in almost every way shape and form possible. His thoughts look backed from a place of sincerity where they look genuine and legitimately insightful, and he's put in an amount of effort that I struggle to see as scum.

Dwlee in contrast is hard hard HARD giving off the exact same vibes as Open Draft Mafia. Everything they're doing and saying oozes that energy. It's certainly possible that I am reading into alignment what is playstyle (that being, what looks like carbon copies of their scumgame there are just part of their gameplay), but given the mental map I have of the gamestate (which I admit is just mental right now and needs verification), they checks off the metrics for what I'd expect scum to have done given all of {Titus, FC, Bingle, TLDNE} being town.

Being right about a townread is, after all, easy enough when as scum you know who is town.

Sorry.
Fixed by way of quote.

[mastina]

If you just said: "Dwlee kinda like ODM mafia where he was scum because X and Y" that would be enough for me to comprehend. ^^

Well the wall is important as it explains things that I can't explain without a wall. Among them the progression of read on Dwlee.

[mastina]

I think Dwlee isn't scum with RCE.

Definitely possible.

But yesterday I pushed emperor/RCE and townread all three of the people you were pushing. So either I'm scum with two of t3/GCB/norwee, which your reads list does not support that being your solve, or I decided to just lolbus my partners for no reason yesterday.

Technically it's not a lolbus if it is a calculated apathy where you know it won't actually go through; we call that 'distancing' instead of bussing.

That having been said: I'm not writing

anything

out, including the very very real chance that you are in fact town and posts on page 100 do in fact give me more reason to doubt my initial guess/assumption which had you as scum.

I

should

be going to bed so I'm not going to start a reread to see if it gives me clarity tonight but know that you have been heard and I am not ignoring/tunneling you here and your counterpoint IS valid and not something I am dismissing.

My preferred vote for today however is RCE as i believe they have the highest chance of flipping scum. And finding the remaining two should be easier once at least he is hopefully confirmed scum.

I mean this IS the critical day. If we eliminate scum today I think both scum are likely to follow but obviously if we eliminate town today it's game over scum win.

I'm slightly inclined to agree with RCE as highest chance of flipping scum right now but I obviously want to do the reading before then and pursue every avenue.

I normally fail to do as much analysis as I set out to do as I am overly ambitious when I get into the analytical mindset and always end up doing less than I promise to but I'm shooting for the stars here because I feel like I owe the dead the absolute best damn performance possible.

Mastina, T3, Dwlee are slots i do not want to vote.

Honestly at this stage, the only slot that I don't want to vote with what I feel is absolute conviction is T3.
You're close to that point but deserve at least a modicum of healthy paranoia to be investigated to make sure you're not scum (even though I think you're town pretty damn strongly).

Still though, T3 as my not-vote and you

close

to my not-vote at least narrows the pool down to four:

{RCE, Green Cap Boys, Dwlee99, Aristeia}.
If you are town and if we're both right that T3 is town that group has 3/4 scum and 1/4 town so good odds. Just have to find:
-The name most town
-The name that fits with the fewest trios (there's 4 possible scumteams if I'm doing the mental math right so find the ones least likely)
-The name most scum
-The name that fits the most trios
-The trio combos with the highest amount of sense behind them.

Obviously if you're not clear that's muddier with it being 3/5 with 2/5 town and 10 possible scumteams but I am hoping that I can manage to push my last bits of paranoia on you out of the way and eliminate you altogether from the pool to make you a never-vote.

Lol it's so obvious norwee is going to end up throwing this game, cheers

At the very least it seems quite likely that Norwee isn't scum with GCB which helps quite a bit.

I would just like to confirm that no one claimed an n1 shot on Fairy.

I thought RCE did?

[mastina]

And any meta that is that easily verifiable is arguably a trust tell.

Trust tells require deliberate enforcing. As in, deliberately going out of your way to do X as alignment Y but never do X as alignment Z.

My townplay vs. scumplay is not deliberately enforced. It's just that obvious.

Well given she wants to kill me uhhh

I don't want to kill you anymore!

While I'm fairly certain there's one scum in {Dwlee, GCB} (only way there isn't is if one of Norwee/T3 are scum) because I think that scum desperately want me to be a mislim candidate, I explicitly don't think that scum doubles down on that angle--as in, don't think that you'd both be scum. I'm pretty sure that it comes from one town with the scum hoping that town votes wrong in lylo.

both are sinking my slot for ??? reasons after apparently townreading us all game,

That's what happens when previous assumptions of the gamestate get proven fundamentally wrong, combined with process of elimination factoring in. TLDNE was not in fact scum. Your push on them was one of the main reasons for townreading your slot. You can of course still be wrong-town, but with so few town left alive, POE means that it is less likely than it was before. And while your posts did look town at the time, they're not as town-looking as at least one towngame, so there is a fundamental need to reconsider and look at the game again without the bias of previous assumptions.

Anyway I'm going to be starting a reread now, will keep notes as I go.

[mastina]

Do you

(ta vera)

always catch up like this, rather than waiting to read a little ahead to see if your queries have already been answered?

Btw this vaguely does look like scum-scum distancing/theater to me (which would implicate their replacements, RCE and Aristeia), but obviously, not sure about that.

[mastina]

on the contrary, i find that i confbias myself into seeing townies as towny when i'm scum.

this could be what The Emperor is doing.
VOTE: The Emperor

Incorrect
Reads are hard and fast here when Order 66 is on the horizon

what do you mean by that?

I like pushing any reads or thoughts I have out, also helps getting the game going early

do you have any scumreads? do you actually scumread me?

No scumreads yet

I didn't like the way you started catching up but seems to be nai after a quick meta check. Your reason for voting me is okay, even if incorrect

This is also triggering my "scum theater" vibecheck.

[mastina]

VOTE: ta vera
Cereal Vote.

{Green Cap Boys The Emperor/Aristeia}


NorwegianboyEE


{mastina}

cass.bruant/T3


{Dwlee}

ta vera/RCEnigma

ta vera/RCE was a Bingle suspicion. Granted,

Mastina
NorwegianboyEE



{Green Cap Boys, The Emperor/Aristeia}

T3

RCE
Dwlee

Was reevaluated to be a bit higher (fourth from bottom, but two names below RCE are now dead), but still looks like a Bingle-endorsed suspicion overall.

[mastina]

So you were gonna outline the past games, not the current games, sure

This push from Emperor feels a bit insincere against Green Cap Boys in a vaguely partner-indicative way. It feels like a push meant to make a push but for it to not really be a push. Granted, this is more evidence of Aristeia being scum more than it is of GCB being scum because it looks like a scum post regardless of GCB's alignment, it's just that to my mental math, there's a ~60-75% chance that it was a scum post made about a scumbuddy.

does anyone want to vote The Emperor with me?

How do you feel about 82 or 85 regarding your town read confirming biased theory

This, for comparison: looks more like the ~75-90% scumbuddy theater interaction (which is to say, it's much stronger).

[mastina]

Btw in my reread I'm also doing page by page votecounts.

So far, I've only gotten one potential important note;

VC Page Five:
The Emperor/Aristeia (2) - Green Cap Boys, Dwlee99
ta vera/RCEnigma (2) - The Emperor/Aristeia,

Bingle

mastina (1) - NorwegianboyEE
The Emperor/Aristeia (1) - ta vera/RCEnigma

VC Page Six:
ta vera/RCEnigma (2) - The Emperor/Aristeia,

Bingle

The Emperor/Aristeia (1) - Dwlee99
mastina (1) - NorwegianboyEE
The Emperor/Aristeia (1) - ta vera/RCEnigma
NorwegianboyEE (1) -

Titus

Titus

(1) - Green Cap Boys

POTENTIAL IMPORTANCE:

GCB shifted votes from Emperor/Aristeia (possible scum) to Titus (town)

Will continue to update you as I go tho.

[mastina]

(I'm not doing VCA per se; I'm more looking for what were the peaks of wagons so that I have an idea of how close every wagon was to going through, who was on them, who wasn't on them, so that I can verify the gamestate.)

[mastina]

the point of the comments wasn't to read the people they were about, it was to respond to The Emperor to understand where he's coming from. it has lead to my scumread on The Emperor which you left out here. Speaking of which, why does no one want to comment on that?

ok, i will comment on that. early on in the game, the emperor's 34 gave me vague scumpings, mostly the way he called retti townie felt a bit off / tmi-y. i told this to retti, who talked me out of it because he thought it was nai. *however*, we've agreed that that's probably a +town event for ta vera (coupled with ta vera's later read on the emperor), since the two of us saw him pretty similarly, and something something mindmeld.

do you remember why you had scum pings on me, datisi?

i think it was about the way you started catching up, at first it felt to me that you're commenting on all the unimportant posts, without giving out any *actually* game-relevant reads. looking over your iso now, i'm not sure exactly what gave me the impression, since back then i was reacting in real-time, and i didn't get that feeling during my reread later, so /shrug.

-D

I'll say the second half of this does look a little partnerey in the interaction (GCB to ta vera/RCE), but the first half is much harder to lock down.

Also, made a small error in the VCs;
VC Page Three/Four:
The Emperor/Aristeia (3) - Green Cap Boys, Dwlee99, ta vera/RCEnigma
mastina (1) - NorwegianboyEE
ta vera/RCEnigma (1) - The Emperor/Aristeia

VC Page Five:
The Emperor/Aristeia (3) - Green Cap Boys, Dwlee99, ta vera/RCEnigma
ta vera/RCEnigma (2) - The Emperor/Aristeia,

Bingle

mastina (1) - NorwegianboyEE

VC Page Six:
ta vera/RCEnigma (2) - The Emperor/Aristeia,

Bingle

The Emperor/Aristeia (2) - Dwlee99, ta vera/RCEnigma
mastina (1) - NorwegianboyEE
NorwegianboyEE (1) -

Titus

Titus

(1) - Green Cap Boys

POTENTIAL IMPORTANCE:

GCB shifted votes from Emperor/Aristeia (possible scum) to Titus (town)

VC Page Seven:

Titus

(2) - Green Cap Boys, The Emperor/Aristeia
The Emperor/Aristeia (2) - Dwlee99, ta vera/RCEnigma
ta vera/RCEnigma (1) -

Bingle

NorwegianboyEE (1) -

Titus

TheLimitDoesNotExist

(1) - NorwegianboyEE

POTENTIAL IMPORTANCE:

The Emperor/Aristeia shifted votes from ta vera/RCE (possible scum) to Titus (town)

I had duplicate Emperor/Aristeia wagons.

[mastina]

Sort-of-mindmeld with mastina
YESSSS

That would be one of the reasons you're my top townread here even more town than Norwee, yes.

Ari/RCE/Dwlee = gg?

I'm not absolutely sure on the third. I'm obviously certain it's not you, but it could be either Dwlee or GCB. Heck, while I

think

that Norwee's town, and fairly strongly so, Norwee's not impossible to be scum, at least not yet to me. (We'll see, there may be evidence along the way which strongly supports Norwee being town, I'll be sure to let you know what I find.)

But I am pretty confident in Aristeia/RCEnigma being 2/3 of the scum right now and that's pretty damn good.

[mastina]

Lol it's so obvious norwee is going to end up throwing this game, cheers
-R

Btw one reason that makes me currently lean GCB over Dwlee for third scum albeit admittedly weakly so:

This quote.

Do you see what I see, here?

Because after I saw it I was left wondering a question about Retti's perspective in the game, as this post kinda looked like a perspective-slip to me.

[mastina]

I pain potioned RCE. How can I be scum with him exactly?

Well it's possible because we've no verification that you pain potion'd RCE nor will we have any way of obtaining said verification.

However, though possible, I lean towards the last scum being GCB by game analysis thusfar.

[mastina]

Sadly my notes got pretty scrambled from my journey back from the future. There's something in there about Retti and Datisi brutally massacring a bunch of innocent civilians, but I can't tell if that's from this game, or talking about something else...
-S

I also feel like I should mention that Green Cap Boys was a scumread of TLDNE for the entirety of the game.

[mastina]

Btw 274 is a bit hard for me to lock down but push come to shove if I HAD to read it any way it'd be Emperor as scum with TMI in knowing Norwee town GCB scum.

Do you think it's impossible for scum to agree with each other on a townie making a weird sounding post?

Impossible?
No.
Highly improbable to be close to impossible?
Yes.

[mastina]

something rings wrong to me about emperor making a huge wallpost about me/norwee interaction, but only a tiny section of it is dedicated for why he found me scummy. i'd ask why is he that sure that that's me spinning things scummy as opposed to me seeing something and calling it out, but something tells me that won't be a productive discussion? iunno.
actually sure - why do you think it makes me scum as opposed to someone who saw it differently than you?
-D

I'm not sure, if I was sure, I'd have dedicated more to explaining why you were scummy. You're a scumlean

I'm unsure if you're town who just sees it differently to me since I know you specifically have experience with Norwegian, I saw it as a standard town Norwegian reaction, or nai at worst. The reasoning you gave isn't even bad in a vacuum, I'd actually agree with it if it was being used on a secret alt for example, but the fact it lands on our dear Norwegian Boy is what sends me shivers

This vaguely looks partnerey to me btw. It looks definitely like Emperor/Aristeia as scum but also vaguely like Emperor/Aristeia scum with GCB.

how ironic would it be if i now said "i get the feeling the emperor has an agenda of stopping people form townreading me"?
-D

eeeeh. not sure i actually believe it though.
-D

I can see this interaction as either side but the back out here actually feels scum to me for some reason.

[mastina]

I'm also still pissed that despite me being completely 100% correct on Bingle we had FC and Mastina choose to shoot there.

I stand by it being genuinely for the best.

If shooting town is the price I pay for catching all 3 scum, it's a price I'd pay any game.

(Granted, admittedly, I do need to catch all 3 scum, which isn't a guarantee. I'm doing my best tho.)

[mastina]

Green Cap Boys

The Emperor
ta vera

NorwegianboyEE

{The Limit Does Not Exist, Dwlee99, Titus}

cass.bruant

Fairy Circle (hydra of Momrangal and Flea the Magician)

Bingle

Well...shit.
I really hate giving evidence to the LLDesque "invert mastina's first readslist to catch scum", but, uhhhhhhhh...
...Oops?
(This was my first readslist in the game and the three slots I think have the highest chance of being scum are the top three and all of the bottom names are town so I gave credence to the LLD invert-mastina-readslist theory. )

[mastina]

It feels to me like the major scum strategy for ElO was: "Make Mastina look scummy because they led eliminations on town!!" and when both me and T3 said: "nah dawg" they were like: "well shit, we’re all out of ideas…"

I have that effect on people sometimes!

It's surprisingly annoying to play against when you're scum. (A fact that you can personally attest to.)

Butyeah while I am

probably

voting for RCE here eventually, I still want to properly sort out who the last scum is if the second is Aristeia.

A second vote not from me on RCE wouldn't be too bad, but me casting a second vote there and/or a third vote on RCE places us in immediately-ends-the-day territory and I'm not ready for the day to end yet.

I'd like to get to later parts of the game in particular as those are the sections with the highest chance of containing clear/condemn interactions of the slots in question (which you're technically among even though I'm like 95% on you being town; I'd like to read the part of the game that could add the final 5% there).

[mastina]

Green Cap Boys
The Emperor

how do you have these two names at the top of your readslist?
-D

Hilariously enough I lowkey think that this is scum-indicative from GCB because it could be just asking "how the fuck do you have two scum as topping your readslist?!?" and that's honestly how that statement reads...

[mastina]

It feels to me like the major scum strategy for ElO was: "Make Mastina look scummy because they led eliminations on town!!" and when both me and T3 said: "nah dawg" they were like: "well shit, we’re all out of ideas…"

who are you even talking about?

Well:

also, now that those flips have flipped that, can anyone offer me an actual good reason to townread mastina?
-D

Why weren't you here yesterday I was saying Mastina is evil

For a start, between Dwlee/GCB we're almost guaranteed one scum, so...

[mastina]

Not hammering

Hi this is me also not casting an L-1 vote.

Now admittedly I am going to bed now (is near 7 am for me again, should sleep), but I've been around since the votes were cast so if I were scum with someone else I could pop in the moment they did, beit Dwlee or GCB so this should functionally serve to confirm that {NorwegianboyEE, T3} vs. {RCEnigma, maaaaaybe-Aristeia} is indeed guaranteed to have one group contain scum thanks to no scum hammer.

[mastina]

T3 even said he had a meta read on the way I interact with partners that doesn't hold to his current idea that I could be partnered with RCE

Hi this is the point that I need to restart reading from after taking an additional 24-48 hours of V/LA to fix my fucked up life because I kinda hardcore slipped up to my depression and legitimately genuinely lost track of time; I didn't realize it was literally

nine AM in the morning

until just now and I legitimately genuinely thought it was still the middle of the night (in my defense, my family never turned off the lights which is my normal cue that it has gotten late).

I really really REALLY need to force SOME sleep and then spend a little bit of time recovering but I realize this is also somewhere that I need to recover on. (My last site activity was this game a couple days ago which means I have a couple days' worth of catching up to do in this game but I have more onsite duties than just this game and have been neglecting those for longer than two days as the last time I was on site, this game was the ONLY thing I did.)

I suppose to give some

semblance

of content and as a safeguard against losing it all, I can post a spoilered list of the votecounts I started for the work I started on my reread that I WILL be getting back to. After I sleep and get my life back in order and recatch up. (Sorry I fucked up in slipping up here.)

Spoiler: VC stuff up to page 20

VC Page One:
The Emperor/Aristeia (2) - Green Cap Boys, Dwlee99
mastina (1) - NorwegianboyEE
Dwlee99 (1) - The Emperor/Aristeia

VC Page Two:
The Emperor/Aristeia (2) - Green Cap Boys, Dwlee99
mastina (1) - NorwegianboyEE

Titus

(1) - The Emperor/Aristeia

VC Page Three/Four:

The Emperor/Aristeia (3) - Green Cap Boys, Dwlee99, ta vera/RCEnigma

mastina (1) - NorwegianboyEE
ta vera/RCEnigma (1) - The Emperor/Aristeia

VC Page Five:

The Emperor/Aristeia (3) - Green Cap Boys, Dwlee99, ta vera/RCEnigma

ta vera/RCEnigma (2) - The Emperor/Aristeia,

Bingle

mastina (1) - NorwegianboyEE

VC Page Six:
ta vera/RCEnigma (2) - The Emperor/Aristeia,

Bingle

The Emperor/Aristeia (2) - Dwlee99, ta vera/RCEnigma
mastina (1) - NorwegianboyEE
NorwegianboyEE (1) -

Titus

Titus

(1) - Green Cap Boys

POTENTIAL IMPORTANCE:

GCB shifted votes from Emperor/Aristeia (possible scum) to Titus (town)

VC Page Seven:

Titus

(2) - Green Cap Boys, The Emperor/Aristeia
The Emperor/Aristeia (2) - Dwlee99, ta vera/RCEnigma
ta vera/RCEnigma (1) -

Bingle

NorwegianboyEE (1) -

Titus

TheLimitDoesNotExist

(1) - NorwegianboyEE

POTENTIAL IMPORTANCE:

The Emperor/Aristeia shifted votes from ta vera/RCE (possible scum) to Titus (town)

VC Page Eight/Nine:

TheLimitDoesNotExist

(2) - The Emperor/Aristeia,

Titus

The Emperor/Aristeia (2) - Dwlee99, ta vera/RCEnigma
ta vera/RCEnigma (1) -

Bingle

NorwegianboyEE (1) - Green Cap Boys
Not Voting deliberately (1?) - NorwegianboyEE

VC Page Ten:

TheLimitDoesNotExist

(2) - The Emperor/Aristeia,

Titus

The Emperor/Aristeia (2) - Dwlee99, ta vera/RCEnigma
ta vera/RCEnigma (1) -

Bingle

NorwegianboyEE (1) - Green Cap Boys

Titus

(1) - NorwegianboyEE

VC Page Eleven:

TheLimitDoesNotExist

(1) -

Titus

The Emperor/Aristeia (1) - ta vera/RCEnigma
ta vera/RCEnigma (1) -

Bingle

NorwegianboyEE (1) - Green Cap Boys

Titus

(1) - NorwegianboyEE
cass.bruant/T3 (1) - Dwlee99
Geen Cap Boys (1) - The Emperor/Aristeia

VC Page Twelve:
The Emperor/Aristeia (2) - ta vera/RCEnigma, Green Cap Boys
ta vera/RCEnigma (1) -

Bingle

Titus

(1) - NorwegianboyEE
cass.bruant/T3 (1) - Dwlee99
Geen Cap Boys (1) - The Emperor/Aristeia

Fairy Circle

(1) -

Titus

VC Page Thirteen:
The Emperor/Aristeia (2) - ta vera/RCEnigma, Green Cap Boys
ta vera/RCEnigma (1) -

Bingle

Titus

(1) - NorwegianboyEE
cass.bruant/T3 (1) - Dwlee99
Geen Cap Boys (1) - The Emperor/Aristeia

Fairy Circle

(1) -

Titus

Bingle

(1) - mastina

VC Page Fourteen:

Bingle

(3) - mastina, The Emperor/Aristeia, Dwlee99

The Emperor/Aristeia (2) - ta vera/RCEnigma, Green Cap Boys
ta vera/RCEnigma (1) -

Bingle

Titus

(1) - NorwegianboyEE

Fairy Circle

(1) -

Titus

POTENTIAL IMPORTANCE:

The Emperor/Aristeia shifted votes from Green Cap Boys (possible scum) to Bingle (town)

VC Page Fifteen/Sixteen:

Bingle

(4) - mastina, The Emperor/Aristeia, Dwlee99, NorwegianboyEE

The Emperor/Aristeia (2) - ta vera/RCEnigma, Green Cap Boys
ta vera/RCEnigma (1) -

Bingle

Fairy Circle

(1) -

Titus

VC Page Seventeen:

Bingle

(3) - mastina, The Emperor/Aristeia, Dwlee99

The Emperor/Aristeia (1) - ta vera/RCEnigma
ta vera/RCEnigma (1) -

Bingle

Fairy Circle

(1) -

Titus

Titus

(1) - Green Cap Boys
Deliberately-Not-Voting (1?) - NorwegianboyEE

POTENTIAL IMPORTANCE:

GCB shifted votes from Emperor/Aristeia (possible scum) to Titus (town)

VC Page Eighteen:

Bingle

(3) - mastina, The Emperor/Aristeia, Dwlee99

The Emperor/Aristeia (1) - ta vera/RCEnigma
ta vera/RCEnigma (1) -

Bingle

Fairy Circle

(1) -

Titus

TheLimitDoesNotExist

(1) - Green Cap Boys
Deliberately-Not-Voting (1?) - NorwegianboyEE

VC Page Nineteen:

Bingle

(2) - mastina, The Emperor/Aristeia

Fairy Circle

(2) -

Titus

, NorwegianboyEE
The Emperor/Aristeia (1) - ta vera/RCEnigma
ta vera/RCEnigma (1) -

Bingle

TheLimitDoesNotExist

(1) - Green Cap Boys
T3 (1) - Dwlee99

[mastina]

Taking a small break waiting for an automated email that for whatever reason is taking a long time to go through so may as well reduce my workload here.

although I think RCE-scum has like every reason to jump on our suspicion of mastina if town, and he...didn't do that, so.

This is fair although there are multiple possible explanations for this.
Option one: he is town.
Option two: he is scum who is largely apathetic, indifferent, etc., and doesn't really want to bother with the effort.
Option three: he is scum who knows that he and Aristeia are caught, but is worried that if he tried to rally against someone like me, it'd end up exposing the third scum and/or townspewing a town player who was otherwise suspect.
Option four: he is scum who thinks that the best way for him to survive is to

not

push me specifically due to a push on me being suspect. After all, I'm not actually voting him right now. He's only got two votes on him. If he can put in the thought that this is option one despite it not being that, there's a chance instead of hitting scum, we land on town.
Option five: he is presently not pursuing the mastina-scum line of thought but can switch to it if he feels like there's a good opening to have done so, making a more "natural" read progression.

Might be more, but you get the idea.

I'm not sure which of the five options I thought of is the correct one. I intend to find out by continuing my effort to solve.

[mastina]

can you make your town case on mastina that doesn't boil to "mastina post therefore mastina town"?

I can help you there.

I have a flowchart for reading me.
It's somewhat dated, it doesn't include some things which it should, but overall it still functions as an overall picture of the guiding philosophy behind my towngame vs. my philosophy in my scumgame.

Overall, as town I have a very very strong tendency towards flawed-logic pushes that are passionate, with conviction, uncaring of the individual being pushed's feelings, insensitive, and while my reasons are internally consistent and make sense and have some form of logic to them, they are still ultimately very easily shown to have the flaws because I struggle to form arguments without them but continue to push what I believe.

Whereas scumastina still, in spite of her degradation, still follows many of these principles (btw that article needs to have the site policy update done on it but I am too busy to attend to that), notably:
Logical, cold, pure, logical pushes that have basically no flaws in them, but also lack passion. They are made deliberately to avoid ticking players off. Every scumread, calculated and precise so that it can be backed out of if necessary. Every scumread, actual solid basis but lacking strong conviction behind the push. Every scumread, logical, but dispassionate, more of a business deal transaction than act of belief. After all, it doesn't matter if you're blatantly not playing to your towngame if people don't want to eliminate you. If people look at your posts and like them, you can live for surprisingly long. (Admittedly, poe eventually kills you, but I've never been the scum to rely on to endgame anyway.)

GCB and Ari soft defending RCE makes me think the consensus solve is right.

I AM somewhat inclined to agree although I'd say Aristeia's defense has gone beyond the point of being 'soft' and is quite hard, and GCB's defense may also be that.

Still though, due process is...well, due. I've got ~80-100 pages to reread to get a better grasp on the gamestate and I BELIEVE I have the time to do so, as long as I don't procrastinate and don't suffer another rl crash.

[mastina]

Taking a small break waiting for an automated email that for whatever reason is taking a long time to go through so may as well reduce my workload here.

although I think RCE-scum has like every reason to jump on our suspicion of mastina if town, and he...didn't do that, so.

This is fair although there are multiple possible explanations for this.
Option one: he is town.
Option two: he is scum who is largely apathetic, indifferent, etc., and doesn't really want to bother with the effort.
Option three: he is scum who knows that he and Aristeia are caught, but is worried that if he tried to rally against someone like me, it'd end up exposing the third scum and/or townspewing a town player who was otherwise suspect.
Option four: he is scum who thinks that the best way for him to survive is to

not

push me specifically due to a push on me being suspect. After all, I'm not actually voting him right now. He's only got two votes on him. If he can put in the thought that this is option one despite it not being that, there's a chance instead of hitting scum, we land on town.
Option five: he is presently not pursuing the mastina-scum line of thought but can switch to it if he feels like there's a good opening to have done so, making a more "natural" read progression.

Might be more, but you get the idea.

I'm not sure which of the five options I thought of is the correct one. I intend to find out by continuing my effort to solve.

can you make your town case on mastina that doesn't boil to "mastina post therefore mastina town"?

I can help you there.

I have a flowchart for reading me.
It's somewhat dated, it doesn't include some things which it should, but overall it still functions as an overall picture of the guiding philosophy behind my towngame vs. my philosophy in my scumgame.

Overall, as town I have a very very strong tendency towards flawed-logic pushes that are passionate, with conviction, uncaring of the individual being pushed's feelings, insensitive, and while my reasons are internally consistent and make sense and have some form of logic to them, they are still ultimately very easily shown to have the flaws because I struggle to form arguments without them but continue to push what I believe.

Whereas scumastina still, in spite of her degradation, still follows many of these principles (btw that article needs to have the site policy update done on it but I am too busy to attend to that), notably:
Logical, cold, pure, logical pushes that have basically no flaws in them, but also lack passion. They are made deliberately to avoid ticking players off. Every scumread, calculated and precise so that it can be backed out of if necessary. Every scumread, actual solid basis but lacking strong conviction behind the push. Every scumread, logical, but dispassionate, more of a business deal transaction than act of belief. After all, it doesn't matter if you're blatantly not playing to your towngame if people don't want to eliminate you. If people look at your posts and like them, you can live for surprisingly long. (Admittedly, poe eventually kills you, but I've never been the scum to rely on to endgame anyway.)

GCB and Ari soft defending RCE makes me think the consensus solve is right.

I AM somewhat inclined to agree although I'd say Aristeia's defense has gone beyond the point of being 'soft' and is quite hard, and GCB's defense may also be that.

Still though, due process is...well, due. I've got ~80-100 pages to reread to get a better grasp on the gamestate and I BELIEVE I have the time to do so, as long as I don't procrastinate and don't suffer another rl crash.

May as well pagetop these.

[mastina]

I only need to make sure Mastina is convinced you are scum.

To be fair this is true regardless of your alignment as it's pretty damn clear right now that I'm basically the linchpin of the game; the town's fate revolves around me and my decision/choice.

If I make the wrong choice, the town loses; if I make the right choice, the town almost certainly snowballs into a victory.

So regardless of your alignment, you basically need me. If you're scum you need me to help get the final town elim and cement me as the ultimate town loser; if you're town you need me to eliminate scum today and use that momentum to kill the rest.

I DO think that the evidence is fairly strong towards you being town who needs me to eliminate scum but obviously I'm not absolutely sure yet, which is why there's still more work to be done.

So if I'm sitting on two votes and not elimmed yet the team is norwee/t3/+1 the easy answer is dwlee is the third with the voting pattern of dwlee/norwee lining up all game but a pain on me makes this slightly less likely.

For the record, I'm pretty sure that the ONLY viable scumteam for Norwee would basically be exactly this; if it was Norwee + T3 + Dwlee and Titus was not in fact crazy and the thought of her being such was largely a scum narrative.

Norwee is absolutely not scum with Datisi. (Their interactions game-long pretty definitively prove this.)
I am town so Norwee can't be scum with me.
Norwee is not scum with RCE.
While Norwee isn't as sure not-scum with Aristeia, it's still pretty damn likely he's not especially given he briefly voted her to L-2 here.

Ergo, the one and only way Norwee is scum is if the scumteam is in fact exactly Norwee + T3 + Dwlee.

I'm like 95% sure that's not the scumteam. But I need to get that final 5% as it makes the difference.

If the scumteam cannot have Norwee in it, then that makes the possible scumteam pool even smaller than it already was.

It's something I can explain more and number crunch more on but the best way to deal with this is for me to actually reread the game. (Which I don't have the time to do

now

, but will have soon enough.)

[mastina]

scum!her could be pushing it because being tunnelled on a single town player is a great way to look busy as scum, and everyone will go "haha that's mastina"
that's what i need you to explain to me - how can you tell between town and scum her there? what about that push is her town meta and couldn't be coming from her as scum?

Well, scumastina is disinclined to tunnel, in general.
It's not like she can't; she has. It's just fairly rare and usually had a fairly obvious reason. (One reason to tunnel is to make the town think a TvS argument is TvT, thereby discrediting a town player that I as scum tunnel on who may have an accurate read on me. Another reason to tunnel is if the tunnel is not in fact faked due to possible multiball. Yet a third reason to tunnel is to, quite simply, avoid bussing by voting a town player and having accurate townreads/scumreads aside from the one player I list as scum who is town and my vote, and/or to frame the player I tunneled as scum by virtue of the tunnel lacking conviction to it so people think it was a bus. Basically, the third reason for a tunnel is to avoid any incriminating associatives that out my buddies and lay false incriminating associatives on town players after I inevitably flip scum because scumastina always knows she fundamentally cannot reach endgame.)

But beyond that, there's something scumastina has never done in a tunnel:

Explained the tunnel after the fact with her thought process, logic used, etc. She has never, after leading a mislim, been able to explain the push on that mislim after the fact, because how could she?

But as town I have had to do this almost every game I've played, due to me being...well, me. I push town a lot. I contribute to the elimination of town a lot. Never intentionally, obviously, but it still

happens

. And yet there was always an underlying reason, an underlying belief, behind the ultimately-incorrect push and remorse at having gotten it wrong and fear that the people who I got wrong will hold it against me, fear that I will continue to be wrong, fear that I will be the worst-performing member of the town, fear that I will cost the town the game, and a drive to right the prior wrong.

I can't fake that as scum; how could I?

Here's another thing though. I don't think Ari is scum with RCE.

Why? What interactions make them unpairable when both of their slots have had buddy-buddy interactions previously?

[mastina]

To be is to do - Plato
To do is to be - Jean Paul Sartre
Do be do be do - Frank Sinatra

I'll raise you one better:
Scoo-be Doo-be Doo (where are you).

Well I know that isn't the scum team

And I know the team isn't Norwee-T3-mastina.

If you know the team isn't Norwee-T3-Dwlee and I know the team isn't Norwee-T3-mastina, can we collectively agree that the only way for Norwee to be scum is if the other is scum and if the other is not scum that Norwee is town?

[mastina]

Mmm I might be worried scum bus here to muddle associatives. Do you think Norwee/Ari/RCE is possible, for instance? Just spitballing here.

Possible? I suppose

theoretically

.

Probable? Hell no.

It's not even plausible, given the cross-voting.

It's not completely impossible, but it is very very very improbable, incredibly unlikely.

RCEnigma (2):

T3, NorwegianboyEE

NorwegianboyEE (2):

RCEnigma, Aristeia

not voting (3):

Green Cap Boys, Dwlee99, mastina

with 7 alive, it takes 4 to sqump. day 3 ends in (expired on 2021-09-08 13:20:00)

Hi this is me yet again not voting to further prove that the voted names + voters contain at least two scum given neither wagon at L-2 has been hammered so between them we have two town voting scum and/or two scum voting town and cannot have one town voting town.

Also shit, 3 days is a lot less time than I thought we had.

I'll see if I can speed things up.

(Btw in the Norwee-Aristeia fight I think Norwee looks a lot more town and Aristeia looks a lot more scum for what it's worth.)

[mastina]

Mastina, instead of looking for evidence that confirms your worldview, you should look for things that disconfirm it.

I am.

It's just that there's actually not a lot of evidence which does, whereas there's a plethora of evidence which supports the worldview I have. If there wasn't that evidence, I wouldn't have the worldview in the first place.

Among the things bothering me is, frankly: you. In Garfild minus Garfield, your content was present but it had a fundamental tone to it: lighthearted, not too serious, kinda fun, not overly invested, like you were basically memeing, maybe even trolling, where it looked like you were having fun, but were still contributing.

In the game I designed, this was doubly so. You were a gif-posting machine whose content outside of gifs was fairly sparse. You did give reads, and reasons, but you were lighthearted the entire time, with an aura of casualness, lack-of-seriousness, all-around playfulness and funness to be had.

Here, it feels like the inverse. There's still the gifs, but there's an aura of seriousness, even pre-lylo but especially in lylo. There's no fun to be had. There was very very little in way of lightheartedness to be had. Fundamentally, there is an entirely different tone to be had.

Now granted, you only have three games under your belt including this one on this account, but me not knowing who you're an alt of means I've only got those three games to go off of--and the stark contrast between you in this game and you in both of the games I've seen you in before is...well, rather stark.

How is it that the player who twice as town hasn't taken the game too seriously, is in this game taking the game dead seriously?

I know you were town in both of those games, but what in this game would make you take it dead seriously as town? Especially when you post things like,

I don't really have any hope for this game because it feels like we're very close to losing and I'm not as committed as people who have been here the entire time,

I know Mastina is already leaning towards voting for RCE so if that's the end there then let's just lose - I'm not really interested in getting upset about this like TLDNE was.

I could read this game and put effort into it.

However I saw where that got the previous town players who tried to steer towards other areas.

They were simply ignored, shouted down and murdered.

I have no interest in putting effort into this game as fmpov

this is almost certainly lost as town players refuse to see basic reason and instead listen to someone who is just shouting "rce scum".

I'm going to stop posting because your plan is to literally drown the thread in garbage shit posts do demotivate an already demoralized town into giving you the vote you need to win.

I'm done here.

I tried my best if it doesn't work whatever I don't care.

I'm going to bed.

If town is too lazy to play this game please just vote me out so I can yell at you post game with Titus/SS/Lilith about how ridiculous town play has been this entire game.

It's disappointing and I regret ever replacing into this game.

You've, repeatedly, said you don't care.
And yet your dead serious posting and extreme effort say otherwise.

Every time you say one thing, but do another. You say you don't care, that you're done, but then you put in more effort, which shows that you do.

Why the seriousness?

Why the sudden devotion to giving this game 100%?

You've, in both of your prior towngames, not efforted like this even remotely. You weren't doing absolutely nothing in either of them, but you were jokey, lighthearted, memey, etc. Yet here you've been far more serious basically since the moment you replaced in. You've said you don't care yet the lack of memeing, the lack of jokiness, the presence of seriousness and effort, says you do care.

All that aside from a "wait a second..." moment I had in realizing your claim.

You claim you still have a pain potion.
So

what was your slot doing N1?
What were you doing N2?

Why do you still have a pain potion on D3?

No paining here

He said he didn't pain here, but why not? Why no action then, and what were you doing on N2, and why do you still have a pain potion come D3?

These are all things that I've noticed, aside from how your slot has game-long associatives with the RCE slot. (And a lesser extent Datisi slot.)

[mastina]

Btw another thing I just did.
I just did a scan of Norwee's first three pages of iso searching for T3.

Though Norwee never voted T3 and the only push against T3 could in fact fit as scum distancing, the Norwee interactions with T3 look incredibly not-scum-scum. They look incredibly fluid, natural, and not scumbuddyish. While Norwee's interactions with T3 could come from scum interacting with a town player (as in, Norwee is scum, T3 isn't), that runs into the issue of who Norwee would be scum with as he cannot be scum with Datisi and is almost definitely not scum with RCE.

It's obviously

possible

that the interactions which don't look scum-scum are in fact, in spite of their appearance of not being scum-scum, actually scum-scum. But this is not how I would expect Norwee to interact with a scumbuddy. Norwee being House's scumbuddy was immediately obvious to me in Open Draft Mafia when I was doing team-crafting work. I could tell it from what he was posting that he was scum with House once House was known to be scum.

Yet here his interactions with T3 look nothing like his interactions with House in that game. Now, admittedly, Norwee's interactions with T3 this game are closer to Norwee's interactions with his other scumbuddy Dwlee in that game, but while the Norwee-Dwlee from that game is closer to the Norwee-T3 of this game the interactions still don't fully match and are still something that looks different.

[mastina]

Speaking of Norwee-Dwlee this game though, it's not impossible for them to be scum I admit, but it doesn't look like the Norwee-Dwlee interactions from Open Draft Mafia nor the Norwee-House interactions from that game.

I realize that a scumteam with 2/3 of the same members would need to change things up in order to not get caught again--but just because they know they need to change things up does not mean they will succeed in actually having done so. I'd expect to see some obvious signs that they missed of their dynamic if they were scum here, but I struggle to see that here.

[mastina]

Btw from the T3 side of the iso: I realize that he has had Norwee as town, pretty strongly so, for the whole game.
I realize that scumbuddies can strongly defend scumbuddies.
But T3 if he were scum with Norwee full-committed to a hard-townread, hard-defense, absolute lock-in of Norwee as town with zero budging, zero doubt, zero wavering, meaning that if T3 were scum with Norwee, they from the getgo decided to more or less full-send-it by committing to a dedicated townread there.

It is not impossible, sure.

But the read and the reasons for it feel incredibly natural, organic, fluid. T3's townread of Norwee doesn't feel forced; it feels completely and entirely real, sincere, done not out of a fake townread but of a genuine sorting of the game. I get that in this setup, there is an incentive for scum to protect scum, but if T3 was scum here, I'd expect his defense of Norwee to be a stretch, to be forced, to be something that he needed to go out of his way to do, but as far as I can tell it developed completely on its own, organically, naturally, as a result of just the two meeting and engaging with prior experience with each other.

I realize it's not

impossible

for a scumteam of Norwee and T3 to, collectively, have concocted a grand scheme:
Deliberately try to completely and totally snow me with planning as to specifically how to fool me, while planning how to make fluid interactions, planning on defending each other and giving one another the exact resources necessary in order to coordinate a natural-looking progression where they end up townreading each other. That's something which COULD happen, but if it happened, they basically pulled it off flawlessly and effortlessly and it was a complete success, worthy of a hats-off nod, tip of respect, for their planning to have pulled off that elaborate juke, that elaborate deception, to misdirect everyone except for Titus and get Titus out D1.

But while it's possible.

It doesn't look probable.

The sheer amount of combined luck/skill to pull that theoretical narrative off is mind-blowing. It couldn't literally be all skill, nor could it all be sheer dumb luck with no forethought, no semblance of planning, done at all. It'd have to have been a combination of both in sheer magnitudes to have worked out, of having pulled the deception off, left basically no trail, having both members individually look town, with interactions that don't look scum-scum, to everyone except for one town player that they forced as the D1 elimination and then for them to have gotten away with it and then correctly banked on me not reevaluating and/or banked on me reading things and still getting it wrong in the end.

The implausibility of that boggles the mind.

Whereas the comparatively simple answer is:
Two players look town this game because they are town.

I realize that if Norwee and T3 are scum we live in a world where they happened to enact the perfect plan they needed in order to get a chance at winning, somehow having either concocted it perfectly or having lucked out in it being the perfect plan or a bit of both. But they did need to have basically absolute luck, absolute perfect planning, and/or some combination of luck/planning in order to have left so little evidence behind.

Their interactions aren't impossible to be scum-scum, but their interactions don't look scum-scum, and both players look town individually.

[mastina]

I'd also like to say that while T3 may not have voted Dwlee and thus from that stance is at least someone you could say is possibly scum with Dwlee, his iso does strongly suggest otherwise. In particular, his treatment of Dwlee on the second page of his iso, including the meta dive, does not look buddy-buddy at all. It looks incredibly town from T3 just in general but also looks anti-buddy with Dwlee given how overall willing he was to push on Dwlee.

[mastina]

VOTE: Cass bruant
Day cop potion

Also this was past the rvs and was Dwlee voting the T3 slot.

VOTE: T3

With this as well. Their progression on the slot also looks incredibly natural and fluid.

VOTE: t3

Plus they did this, too.

Also saying that Norwe posted no content which is uh false.

Being wrong is scum because?
-S

The word lying comes to mind.

VOTE: t3
I don't think town!t3 makes this post

Plus there was this as well.

Also saying that Norwe posted no content which is uh false.

Being wrong is scum because?
-S

The word lying comes to mind.

VOTE: t3
I don't think town!t3 makes this post

Just grabbed why I think this:

Imo provable lies are nai.

Backed by this.

Dwlee's interaction with T3 looks incredibly fluid and natural for the whole game as the progression there doesn't look forced. Admittedly, Dwlee can be scum without T3, but they don't look like they are scum with T3 as their interactions with T3 genuinely don't look like they are looking to fool others into thinking "this isn't a scum-scum interaction". It looks like Dwlee is trying to genuinely reach out to T3 or when Dwlee was voting T3 to genuinely reach out to others to vote with them, rather than something done as an act to make things look convincing to the town.

[mastina]

If scum has a deepwolf it's likely Mastina.

(btw this doesn't really support RCE/Ari's narrative that Norwee was lying about scum thinking I'd be an easy misyeet today as RCE DID display this thought on D2. It was more reinforced than not in 2204, too.)

I didn't use my 1 pain potion on Night 2 because I literally just replaced in and I didn't know what to do with it.

D2 ended at Post #2425 Fri Aug 27, 2021 12:55 pm.

Which places this as your last post on D2 by my math.

You had 16 posts over 16 pages to get the chance to.

Butyeah, I do not believe there's zero scum in {Bingle, TLDNE, Fairy Circle}.

FWIW, I absolutely believe there are 1-2 scum in these three names. I’d 100% be behind eliminating either me or FC and paining exclusively in the other two tonight, with reevaluations on a scum flip. This leaves us with an exceedingly low chance for the scum team to win outright tonight (we’d presumably be flipping scum and even if somehow that’s three town names we’d be paining people that overlap with the potential pool of players that have already lost hp.

I would argue that I shouldn’t be pained on an FC scumflip, but it’s not a hill I’d die on.

This was mechanics talk in that time. (Speaking of which,

where is the second pain potion on Fairy Circle?

Nobody to my knowledge has claimed to have shot the second shot at them to kill them. Sounds like the job for scum who claim to have taken no action N2 then...)

If someone lol hammers us then please send every pain potion on the planet toward them. Then execute T3.
-S

If you didn't want to follow Bingle's plan you could have followed this as there was in fact an effective lolhammer on TLDNE, and you could have pain potioned T3.

Yet you didn't follow Bingle's plan (or so you say at least) and you didn't follow TLDNE's plan. Which you can't claim you didn't see, either, because:

I just iso'd Limit and F4'd for T3 and its like all over the place. I don't really understand the progression from T3 town, t3 NAI, t3 i dont know to T3 is lockscum lets kill him?

You read their posts with T3 in them, and 2245 had a mention of T3, so you were aware of at the very least what The Limit Does Not Exist, our flipped town on D2, wanted for a plan of pain potion night actions.

Yet you're claiming you didn't know how to use your pain potion in spite of having seen 2245 in your TLDNE iso?

It is XLO if there is damage done on three town, scum have 3 pain pots, no town jk/doc a no target, AND no scum die tonight. If we eliminate someone who has been pained, it drops the odds of one or three. Scum having three pain pots split between their members remaining isn’t a sure thing by any means.

This is another reason for the Limit elimination btw. And another reason I've focused on {Limit, Bingle, Fairy Circle}.

TLDNE is the best elimination for the game and it's not just because I think that they are the slot with the highest chance of being scum; they are also the slot I genuinely think gives the town the most information regardless of their flip (with Bingle and Fairy Circle a close second/third) in that regard as well as one of the slots we lose the least from eliminating (in that it removes a potential scum wincon even if they are town).

And I also was posting plans for pain potions as well.

You're saying you didn't know how to use your pain potion in spite of

no less than three

slots giving options on what to do N2 with them?

Consider me skeptical of your claim of ignorance to usage of pain potions.

I legitimately think that the claim of no pain potion N2 and having a pain potion to use now is genuinely a scumclaim.

[mastina]

PAIN
if limit is town

Make that four slots at minimum. (Might be more than 4, obviously, if I missed some slots' plans but suffice to say: there were in fact people saying how to use potions for N2.)

[mastina]

Why can't datisi be scum with t3/norwee @mastina?

Game-long interactions with both halves of the slot.

Iso Norwee and see his GCB treatment. Check also for Datisi and Retti for good measure as he addresses them by both of those names at times.

Iso GCB and search 'norw' and see their treatment of him the whole game.

They're definitively not scumbuddies. Like, 100%, cannot be scumbuddies. I'm more sure of Norwee-Datisi not being scumbuddies than I am of any other pair's chances. Norwee's chance of being scum are even higher with RCE (a slot he's unlikely to be scum with) than Datisi. Heck I'd buy a Norwee-Ari cross-bus before I'd buy a Norwee-Datisi scumteam.

Basically, Norwee and GCB's interactions just have a sort of relationship that just...isn't scum. Period. Not "is unlikely to be scum". Just isn't scum. I fundamentally can't see it as possible scum.

So the options for Norwee-scum are:
Norwee bussed RCE (unlikely) + someone else;
Norwee is bussing Aristeia (unlikely) + someone else;
Norwee is scum with you + T3 (possible, but the evidence overall points away from this imo).

Words MEAN NOTHING in mafia - it's all theatre and nonsense - look at VOTES and who voted to kill who.
The people who suspected Norwee/T3 happen to get voted out - by Norwee/T3/Dwlee.

Yeah the problem with this is that town can be suspicious of town and when a town player sees a competent player suspicious of them they have this bad habit of doing a thing we call OMGUSing by doing a burden of proficiency on the town player wrongly scumreading them and thinking that the player scumreading them (in spite of being town) must be scum.

And scum have no incentive to actively vote out town if town are voting out town on their own without the help of the scum.

Bingle vs. Fairy Circle was TvT and dominant.
Limit was a third part of that TvTvT fight.

Bingle flipping town didn't make Fairy Circle be scum, and vice versa, in spite of both slots being convinced the other was scum.

So when there's proven cases of town suspecting town and being wrong about it, and mutually so:
What makes Dwlee + T3 + Norwee not be town wrong about town, with Titus (and to a lesser extent Limit) be wrong about them?

Because you said so?
The very argument you're saying Norwee is using?

[mastina]

They have the motive

That's the thing though--they

didn't

have the motive.

Say Titus was right about T3/Norwee/Dwlee being the scumteam.
Okay, she was right--so what?
Nobody was listening to her. Nobody was buying what she was selling. Not. a. single. player. was sheeping her. Not a single player believed her. Nobody. Not a single person. was interested in following her. Nobody was swayed by her logic. Nobody was convinced she was even close to right.

Why would the scumteam pile on en masse onto Titus when she was not garnering support? An elimination can often serve as a good way to martyr a slot and make people sheep their reads.

Titus was not a threat on D1. She was harmless in spite of in your scenario having a hypothetically correct solve. Because nobody thought she was right. Everyone thought she was crazy, moonlogicky, or even scum. Nobody was taking her scumreads seriously.

Your argument might have merit if Titus had momentum behind her reads--but she didn't. Quite the opposite. Do you know who we were wagoning before Titus? Bingle. ta vera/RCE. The Limit Does Not Exist. Fairy Circle who got to L-1.

Dwlee was never at risk. They never got more than two votes.
T3 was never at risk. He never got more than two votes.
Norwee was never at risk. He never had a lasting wagon.

Titus did not have any support for her solve.

Why would the scum derail the momentum behind wagons driven by town on town (Fairy Circle was town; Bingle was town), only to forcefully drive through a wagon driven by scum on town?

They actually lack an incentive for it.

Because forcing a wagon with all three scum on it to go through does the opposite of helping them; it actively hurts them.

[mastina]

Think about it Mastina, you said it yourself. You are basically impossible to push for scum and you can 1v1 anyone at Elo.
So why did the scum not shoot you with a poison potion? Why did they keep you alive the entire time? Because you've been in Norwe's pocket the ENTIRE GAME and his entire plan is to keep you there and if you don't change your mind HE WINS

I will admit that if Norwee is scum, this is true and he pulled it off perfectly.

However.

I genuinely don't think Norwee acts that way as scum.

I did, after all, come into today already with a fresh start in mind. I did a hard-reset on my reads. And Norwee I feel would have known that I would do that. He wasn't even my top townread, and T3 wasn't my top townread, anyway. Yesterday my top townread was Green Cap Boys. How would Norwee be able to predict that in lylo, GCB would go from my #1 strongest townread to my overall #3 suspect? Fuck, it wasn't even like my first thought upon daystart was GCB was scum as I had Dwlee as a huuuuuuge scumspect in my opening post.

How would Norwee be able to predict that when I did my reassessment, that I'd come to the conclusion that all of {Norwee, T3, Dwlee} are town? If your scumteam proposed were true, it'd only take me being right on ONE of the three to completely wreck the scum because if I entered a 1v1 with scum, they'd lose. And notably I almost entered a 1v1 with Dwlee at the start of today!

Your narrative is a good one. It is a fine argument. But it is also an imperfect one. A flawed one. It requires Norwee to have either nigh-omniscient knowledge with a perfect prediction of the future or god-tiered luck in having lucked out or some combination of the two where he made a plan and hoped for it to work and it did.

Norwee saw me explain my philosophy on tunneling last game: I drop the tunnel when I think it is necessary to have done so. Coming into today, from seeing my D2 posts, it wasn't going to be hard for him to predict I was not in fact going to tunnel Bingle/FC's slots and was in fact going to reevaluate. That made me a risk, because it meant that if I reevaluated a scum slot as scum, and entered a 1v1 with it, it'd be hella-scary. And Norwee is already very very scared of me as scum given how thoroughly I caught him in Open Draft Mafia.

I wasn't even sure he was town here. I pointed out multiple times how my scumdar involving Norwee was broken, that I was getting static, that it was hard to lock him down. Why would Norwee take the gamble that I'd come to the wrong conclusion of him being town on a read reset (which I would obviously be doing after a Limit death)? And even IF Norwee would take that risk...why would he take it three times over, with T3 and Dwlee? T3 is reasonable enough as I stated a townread there prior to the end of D2, but Dwlee? Dwlee I did not townread for good reason. Why would Norwee risk me tunneling on Dwlee?

A Norwee-T3-Dwlee scumteam leaving me untouched is taking the ultimate gamble. It is gambling on me

not

tunneling on any of them. Which they had no way of knowing and every reason to suspect I would.

It's not impossible! They COULD do it. With a combination of desperation, planning, and pure sheer luck on their side, of hoping, praying, that I didn't lock onto any of them. But it requires an incredibly huge chain of events that are gamble after gamble, unlikely thing on top of unlikely thing, to pile up one after another after another.

It's not impossible, sure.

But basically all the evidence says otherwise.

[mastina]

You dont think pain potions are MORE VALUABLE now that we have CLEARLY DRAWN SIDES post ELO standoff?

Considering the game immediately ends in a scum win if the scum have 50% of the votes (which they do in 3-3)? Pain potions are currently worthless unless we hit scum. So no. Pain potions are NOT more valuable in lylo. They had their highest value on N2.

There's also the fact that, near as I can tell, nobody claimed to have pain potioned Fairy Circle N2. We know it couldn't have been the Bingle-slot as the Bingle-slot had no potions. And it wasn't me because I pain potioned the Bingle-slot. So that means someone used a pain potion on Fairy Circle, but did not claim it.

RCE claimed to have pain potioned one of TLDNE/Bingle/Fairy Circle N1--it

could

have been him, if he had a second pain potion, but in that case he'd be scum.
Dwlee claimed to have pain potioned RCEnigma--it

could

be Dwlee if Dwlee was lying about pain potioning RCE, but this is an inherently risky claim to make because there's not one but two chances of being guiltied if someone harmographied either RCE or Fairy Circle. So it's unlikely that they were lying.
T3 pain potioned The Limit Does Not Exist on N1--it

could

be T3 if he has two pain potions and pain potioned two nights in a row but chose to lie about pain potioning N2 while telling the truth N1, but this seems unlikely.

That leaves the possible pain potioning of Fairy Circle N2 to be {Green Cap Boys/Datisi, NorwegianboyEE, Aristeia}.

Admittedly, Norwee has not claimed any N2 action as far as I can see from an iso in terms of pain potioning. (Norwee may have claimed but if so I missed it with my search of 'pain'.)
And admittedly, GCB/Datisi claimed to have not used any N2 action which means they are definitely possible as a culprit.

But my mind as to which of the three possible slots pain potioned Fairy Circle N2 immediately hops to the one who claims to have a pain potion still and did nothing N2 with it.

[mastina]

Everything you say is based in your assumption that norwee is town.

On the contrary.
Everything you say is based in the assumption Norwee is scum.

I have pointed out multiple reasons for why I believe him to not be scum, and asked you to explain why he would be scum here.

But you're continuing to spin the same narrative ad naseum, a narrative that flies in the face of the facts that I've been reading and investigating to see for myself.

I'm perfectly willing to accept I could be wrong--if there were logic that supported that I was.

But the logic isn't saying I'm wrong. It's saying that occam's razor suggests the simplest answer is that Norwee-T3-Dwlee is not in fact some sort of mastermind/uber-lucky scumteam and is in fact not the scumteam at all.

Who is more

likely

to omgus back and kill people?

Depends on the players involved and their history but in a playerlist filled with players who have played with each other? Town. Because town who have played with town disproportionately hold an expectation for the other town to have a correct read on them and will be naturally suspicious of someone who does NOT have the correct read on them when they think that player

should

.

After all--I thought Flea was suspect for not townbinning me, and I'm town when Flea was town in spite of Flea having not townbinned me. I explicitly did a form of OMGUS on them, as town. So if I did that as town, why couldn't Norwee/Titus have done it towards each other as town? Bingle and Fairy Circle did it as town, OMGUSing each other, so what makes the Bingle-FC town-town TvT different from Norwee-Titus?

THAT is something you're NOT answering.

Do you see anything in Norwe's iso that suggests he was trying to sort Titus/SS in good faith?

A whole metric fuckton, actually!

[mastina]

You know you can be wrong right?

Sure I can be wrong.
But the evidence I have isn't saying I'm wrong.

There's like 80-90% evidence supporting my conclusions and pointing towards it being the most likely answer.

And only 10-20% which suggests I

might

just

possibly

be wrong.

The balance of probability vs. possibility overwhelmingly says: the probability is that Norwee is town. There's a

possibility

that Norwee is scum. But overwhelmingly, that possibility requires larger leaps in more questionable logic with more assumptions and bigger reaches and more fabrication of a narrative to make function.

Whereas the probability that Norwee is town basically speaks for itself.

Just give Titus a chance
Give SS and Lilith a chance.
They deserve that at least no?
They've poured so much into this game screaming that Norwee/T3 are scumbags. Do they get any say in this game's outcome at all?

Sure they deserve a chance.

Also deserving a chance though is that you're also leaving out how SS/lilith's largest scumread for most of the game was not in fact Norwee--it was Green Cap Boys/Datisi. And they deserve the chance for me to listen to

that

read and the conclusion it'd lead me to.

For every post of Limit saying Norwee-sus I can point to 2-3 saying GCB/Datisi are sus, and it's not like the Norwee suspicion replaced their GCB/Datisi suspicion. In spite of how Norwee and GCB/Datisi can't realistically be a scumteam.

[mastina]

Because if she was alive today she'd be voting for them.

So the scumteam decided to eliminate her D1...rather than use pain potions to eliminate her which they could justify as being used on a scummy town...and decided that this was enough of a priority to make necessary on D1 rather than eliminating her N1...or eliminating her on D2...and didn't think they could justify killing her on N2 either...and predicted that D3 would be lylo where Titus would be voting one of them?

Again--not impossible. But that kind of narrative requires an incredible stretch in logic ignoring all the other possible solutions scum had. Scum could have pain potioned her and either truthfully claimed to have done so as pain potioning a player they thought to be scum, or lied and just not claimed the pain potions on her, or waited and hoped town pain potioned her, or hoped that she changed her solve (Titus is not someone so set in her ways that once she has a three-man solve she will lock it in for the entirety of the game), or hoped that the town eliminated her, or hoped that lylo came later, or deliberately engineered a delay in lylo.

All of those are simpler solutions for dealing with Titus than dogpiling onto a wagon on her and brute forcing a plurality elimination on her.

Why let her become influential when you can just make her dead?

This is fair, but why does the method of death which comes to mind as scum in your eyes "dogpile her on D1 and let plurality kill her", a method prone to failure and which is highly inconspicuous, rather than any of the much simpler methods?

I guarantee you as scum I've never had the thought to dogpile onto a town player to eliminate them via plurality because of fearing their accuracy.
As a start it requires scum to actively think about and weaponize the plurality mechanic, something most scumteams are not going to think about at least on D1.
And then it requires them to not think about how inconspicuous three scum could be when dogpiling said townie.
And then it requires them to think that they will actually succeed on this, which there is no guarantee of because their dogpile could be overpowered fairly easily.
And then it requires them to also not think of much simpler methods of dealing with Titus.

It requires them to have thought of one very very very specific plan, ignored all of the possible risks and failure methods of this plan, commit to it, hope/pray it works out, and not to have thought of simpler more effective more universal methods of dealing with the threat of an accurate townie. It requires them to weaponize a game-specific mechanic (plurality) and to think that this was the only solution and have full confidence in it working.

Why is it that you think the scum thought "Titus is right about us, we must dogpile her and rely on plurality to eliminate her on D1", a solution that requires a

very very

specific mindset and set of risk/reward analysis, rather than any of the far far more obvious more universal methods/solutions/strategies?

I feel like I've said it a bunch but I will continue saying it as long as it is pertinent to say:
Every piece of 'evidence' suggesting Norwee-T3-Dwlee as a scumteam requires them to have collectively either god-tier luck, god-tier planning, or some high combination thereof where they planned things out well and then with these plans that have high chances of failure, just so happened to have lucked out big time with them actually ending up working out in spite of all the failure conditions to their plans.

It requires us to live in a very very specific, contrived, convoluted world, where the scumteam did precisely one thing that happened to be the perfect thing they needed to do.

Whereas for them to be town requires just the use of looking at which idea is the simplest and keeping things stupidly simple.

[mastina]

Dwlee was never at risk. They never got more than two votes. T3 was never at risk. He never got more than two votes. Norwee was never at risk. He never had a lasting wagon.

They're not at risk because they've killed the people who were suspecting them by voting them off.

Pretty sure this is a fallacy. I don't remember which, might be some form of circular logic? But I'm pretty sure this doesn't work as an argument because it doesn't explain the actions that have happened, building a narrative that builds off itself without intersection with the actual facts of the game.

If you can't see the incentive for the scum to kill the people who are suspecting them and leaving townies alive who suspect other townies then you frankly don't know how to play mafia as scum.

Oh I can see the incentive for scum to

kill

people who suspect them.

But Titus wasn't KILLED.

She was

eliminated

.

The incentive/logical train for scum to HOPE for a plurality elimination on Titus that they ALL dogpiled onto?

Now THAT is something I can't really see the incentive behind scum doing.

[mastina]

the goal of the scum is to vote out townies who suspect them

Is it?

The goal of scum is to not get voted out and to vote out town, sure.

But most scum I know don't dogpile onto one town player in order to remove a town player suspicious of them.

Scum usually avoid voting together and scum and scum usually aren't going to take a 1v1 that they have a 50% chance of losing, especially if even if they win they then lose the next day.

I realize it's not

impossible

--Norwee DID try to 1v1 me in Open Draft Mafia when he was scum there. (Tho critically, that did not work for him.) But for your theory to be true for this game, it'd have to have not JUST been Norwee opting into this strategy; it'd have to be the entire scumteam doing so. And each member you add to being onboard with that strategy increases the unlikelihood of it being something that'd happen.

That, aside from how when I've been catching whiffs of that area of the game it doesn't even look like a coordinated assault.

Admittedly, I've not had the chance to read all the pages in context. But I DO have to call it as I see it. And as I see it, the narrative you're weaving is a narrative. It requires the scumteam to make very very specific actions that while they are

possible

from the scum players in question, require a very very very specific chain of

possible

action after

possible

action after POSSIBLE action, ignoring the probable actions, the simpler actions, the actions that fit better, etc.

Your narrative is never impossible. I will give you that. Nothing in it cannot be true. But everything you're trying to sell requires one specific unlikely improbable chain of events one after another to have happened where we live in what amounts to a one in a thousand universe where every stretch of an action happened to have been the one taken.

[mastina]

The world NorwegianBoy is selling you is that I'm scum with RCE/Datisi and both of my scum partners have decided to ghost the game and stop playing while I am the lone scum still talking.

Do you really think a scum team at Elo that has skated through and is on the verge of winning would look like that?

Yes?

Why wouldn't they? If they weren't high-effort pre-lylo, why would most of them be efforting IN lylo?

It doesn't require rocket science for the game to have low-effort scum that mostly did nothing until lylo and mostly continue to do nothing in lylo. That's not some occam's razor violation requiring a complex gamestate. That's literally 70-90% of games onsite right now in the meta. Most scum players just don't give a shit. They get away with not giving a shit in the earlygame because often the town self-destructs to some extent and vote out town and suspect other town. But they continue to not give a shit after the town begins to get their shit together.

That's not some stretch of me to think it the case this game. That's not something which would be highly unique to this game. That's literally the state of mafiascum players who're mafia. They do almost nothing, towns suspect town early on, and then either the town self-destructs and hand the scum a win, or the town gets their shit together and eliminate the scum. This game being that? Not some anomaly. Not a statistical weirdness. Not some form of weird thing that is a freak occurrence. It'd literally be just another mafiascum game with that trend.

You know what WOULD be an anomaly?

If all three of the slots with the highest activity in the game, if the three slots with the highest post count, ALL were scum.

When was the last time you saw a game where literally the top three posters were ALL scum?

When was the last time you saw a game where the three slots that have contributed the most to the game, have efforted the hardest, have been the most active, most involved, were ALL scum?

It's happened before in mafiascum's history I'm sure--but it is very very very very very rare.

And you're asking me to believe in what amounts to a statistical anomaly. In what amounts to a freak occurrence. In a scumteam randomly for no real reason who could get by on coasting to an easy victory as town destroyed itself, deciding to actively force the town loss quickly.

So to answer which story feels more real?

The one backed by the evidence I see and which fits with the site meta.
Rather than the one which requires possibility after possibility after possibility which isn't in the site meta at all.

[mastina]

What am I supposed to do Mastina?

Use logic that is based in facts and probabilities rather than a narrative that relies on possibility after possibility and address the questions/points I'm raising, is all I can really offer.

Because I've explored multiple angles. I see multiple reasons why the Norwee-T3-Dwlee scumteam looks unlikely and I see multiple reasons why the Aristeia-RCE scumteam isn't unlikely. But all I see from you is restating the same things in different ways/words in spite of me bringing up new point after new point, with your counters to the new points I bring up basically relying on you restating/reiterating your already established argument, relying entirely on the original argument.

[mastina]

all it requires is for him to have pocketed you - which he did by insisting over and over again that you were locktown town.

You keep saying this, and yet this takes facts from D3 that Norwee would have no way of knowing prior to D3.

That aside from the fact that Norwee locktowning me has absolutely 0% to do with my read on his slot.

I can tell you right now any argument that relies on "Norwee pocketed you by locktowning you" is instantly not going to be convincing to me because I give zero fucks about Norwee townreading me. The fact that RCE townreads me but ISN'T someone that has pocketed me should be proof enough of that. Norwee is someone who looks unlikely to be scum for a plethora of things--all of which came prior to D3 and were entirely unrelated to me.

Nothing Norwee has done or said in relationship to me, in regards to me, has effected my read on him at all--if you think it has, sorry to say, you're wrong and any argument you attempt to make to that effect WILL fall on deaf ears as I know it to not be true.

It's entirely Norwee's content

unrelated

to me that I see as unlikely to be scum. And that content was not aimed at me at all.

[mastina]

I haven't slept much because of this game and I need to get some things done today.

Speaking of sleep: I was planning on logging in here and getting recaught up and going to bed. I logged in at like 4, 5 am to try that and technically didn't finish. (I started with 1/2 tabs open for this game. That's doubled/tripled to 4-6 tabs...) It's now 9 am.

I need sleep myself.

I do remain open, but a lot of your defense still feels like a form of AtE that involves building/maintainging/weaving a specific narrative that the majority of facts do not support, relying on the few facts which could support it and on the opinion of two/three dead town players which doesn't take into account the other dead town players.

After all, why doesn't Bingle or Momrangal or Flea the Magician also deserve a chance for their reads to be considered?

It feels like fitting the facts to the narrative rather than fitting the narrative to the facts to me. It also feels like it requires facts we know only from after D3 has played out for decisions made prior to D3, something scum could fundamentally not have had because it was in fact not D3 when they made those decisions. Basically using PRESENT actions/knowledge to justify PAST actions/knowledge that scum could not have had at the time of making those past actions.

[mastina]

with 7 alive, it takes 4 to sqump. day 3 ends in (expired on 2021-09-08 13:20:00)

Okay so it is Monday 9:15 am for me right now and this is 50 hours away: two days away plus two hours.

So that places deadline on Wednesday, circa 11:20ish AM for me.

I'm worried about scum cheesing a plurality elimination through at deadline, so I need to cast a vote before the 24 hour deadline mark to be cautious.

Which means that my vote deadline is circa Tuesday, 11:20 AM.

Given that I shouldn't stay up that late/early, a more realistic deadline is Tuesday circa 6 am give or take an hour.

Which is in a little less than 24 hours, is about 20.45 hours by my math.

So setting a loose approximate deadline for me to vote:
(expired on 2021-09-07 08:18:14)

Will need to do that.
But for now: bed.

[mastina]

Mastina can you make your decision soonish? I wanna make mine after you

Btw small change in my plans; I have a dentist appointment tomorrow at 11:30. I'll be voting before I leave for the appointment, circa the 8:30 - 10:30ish range.

He claims that I'm "cherrypicking" what Titus says. Go read Titus ISO for yourself.
He claims that I'm cherrypicking things out of context from SS/Lilith.
Who went down dying and cursing that this town didn't deserve to win because Norwee/T3 were so openwolfy.
They died with their vote on T3.
They said the town would lose because noone scumreads NorwegianBoy.

Also, uh. I actually DO think the quotes are cherrypicked because the reads and reasons are more nuanced than what you're suggesting.

And while we can't know for sure what the town do--a lack of flips on players someone is scumreading, contrary to what you say, does NOT necessarily mean the scumread would've continued had them live. All it'd take for Titus to think her solve was wrong, for instance, is for evidence to come up that throws the solve into doubt. That evidence COULD be one of the scumreads flipping town, but critically,

does not NEED to be that

, and could in fact be any of the slots showing themselves to be so town that Titus doubts her solve, and/or the slots showing interactions which throws her solve into question.

Same basic concept also applies for the Limit slot.

Likke since when is a scum strat to spam and powerwolf

T3's wording may be different from my own, but the question asked is a valid one and along my own sentiments.

It is a fact that Norwee, T3, and Dwlee are the three slots with the highest post count in the game.

Site meta very very very strongly indicates that is a statistical anomaly from scum in most scumgames. Radio Buzz's top posters were not all scum. It had high-posters but the scum were not the top three. Bloodstained Ritual's top posters were not all scum. It had high-posters but the scum were not the top three.
Chrono Trigger's top posters were not all scum.
Yin and Yang's top posters were not all scum.
Owner's Market Blitz's top posters were not all scum.

And I could continue digging but across the board, the numbers tend to not lie. Scum are not the three highest-activity slots in basically any game. Even in the games they are collectively all high posters, they are still outdone by the town.

Yet for that to be the scumteam here, they'd have need to have outdone the town by a landslide.

scum usually show up less on hammered wagons, not more

This is ALSO a factually true statement. It's even backed by data from literally hundreds of games:

When we focus exclusively either on wagons where the eliminated slot is TOWN or where the eliminated slot is MAFIA though, we make a striking observation: As a game goes on (e.g. in Days 3, 4, and 5),

MAFIA disproportionately end Days away from hammered wagons on TOWN

while

disproportionately ending Days on hammered wagons that vote out other MAFIA

.

Scum have a tendency to NOT vote on town elimination wagons.

Scum piling onto a town elimination and trying to force it through by brute force is basically unheard of.

Dwlee was never at risk. They never got more than two votes. T3 was never at risk. He never got more than two votes. Norwee was never at risk. He never had a lasting wagon.

They're not at risk because they've killed the people who were suspecting them by voting them off.

Pretty sure this is a fallacy. I don't remember which, might be some form of circular logic? But I'm pretty sure this doesn't work as an argument because it doesn't explain the actions that have happened, building a narrative that builds off itself without intersection with the actual facts of the game.

How is this circular logic?
Titus suspected them
They voted Titus
Titus is dead.
Now they don't have to worry about Titus voting for them anymore because

Titus is dead

I pointed out that Dwlee was never at risk of being eliminated, T3 was never at risk of being eliminated, and that Norwee was never at risk of being eliminated.

I was thus saying that there was no motive to force through a Titus elimination. Titus suspected them--but she had no support. So what if she suspected them? She had no support, so why would they feel the need, the compulsion, to

force

an elimination on Titus through, when there was no need to do so?

Scum have a strong tendency towards taking the path of least resistance. The path of least resistance is

not

forcing a Titus elimination through; that's basically the path of highest resistance. There was no need for forcing a Titus elimination through. Titus was not a threat on D1. She could have been dealt with using any number of methods.

The narrative you're building is that "Norwee/T3/Dwlee forced an elimination through on Titus because she was a threat. They did this in spite of no support of her reads because they thought she would continue to be a threat, in spite of how her reads were provably harmless on D1. They did this because they felt they needed to eliminate her. And they decided to eliminate her because she posed a threat." Further positing that they needed to get rid of Titus on D1, because by D3 we'd be in lylo and that's not enough time for things to change.

Except D3 was not for sure lylo until D3, and things had plenty of ways they could've changed.

Titus's reads could have changed.

People could have thought Titus was scum, turning against her.

Town players could have pain potioned her, saving scum the effort of needing to pain potion her. It's not like pain potioning her would've been a scumclaim. Any town player in this game who was suspicious of Titus would not get yeeted after they claimed the followed their suspicion by pain potioning her.

And scum players could easily, by the above, pain potion her and just truthfully claim to have done so.

What makes scum NEED to kill Titus D1? What makes brute forcing a plurality elimination through on Titus something that scum NEEDED to do? What is their motive for doing that above all other options? There was in fact a risk in having done so.

Multiple, in fact.

Titus under pressure could've hard-towned it up to the point where players thought the wagon on her was terrible, resulting in a flash-wagon literally anywhere else. It's not like there wasn't time available. There were plenty of townies around posting near the deadline time. If they saw that Titus was the lead wagon and thought Titus was towning it up so strongly that she shouldn't be the elimination, they could band together and compromise on votes they otherwise would not have made, with people they otherwise would not compromise with.

Even IF that didn't happen, Titus could have also done what amounts to a venge-kill and asked, begged, for the town to promise to listen to her with a town player actually listening--Bingle and myself and Fairy Circle are all slots that had a fairly high chance of doing precisely that and martyring Titus and using her death to pressure Norwee/T3/Dwlee.

You're saying it wasn't a risk because it ended up that nobody did this--but that's using future knowledge to justify past actions.

What AT THE TIME justfied it?
What AT THE TIME made it necessary?
What AT THE TIME made it something they felt they NEEDED to do and thought was the ONLY thing they could do?

Because there were tangible risks to this that you're brushing off as "that didn't happen so therefore there wasn't a risk, the reward was that they got away with it until now".

There is very little difference between voting someone out and nightkilling them.

There still ARE differences though.
Nightkills have far less accountability and are overall more in control of the scum--scum have

some

accountability in needing plausible claims, but are under no obligation to trueclaim every shot. (See also: nobody has claimed the fatal shot on Fairy Circle last night when we know it couldn't have been FC or Bingle, thus, scum did it.) Nightkills are thus still scum-favored/oriented overall mechanics-wise.

Eliminations have full accountability and are still mostly driven by the town--scum have

some

control via their votes, but they fundamentally do not hold the majority. They need to get town to eliminate town. They need to make allies and they need to make town vote town and they need for their stances to make sense and for their stances to flow in a way that doesn't give away their scum agendas.

They are getting away with murder in broad daylight

I will admit that IF they are the scumteam, they did indeed get away with just that.

But it does require the 'if' there--and the proposed scenario relies on a set of things happening the scumteam could fundamentally NOT have controlled the entire time.

The scumteam could not control the town into not flash-wagoning a slot other than Titus.
The scumteam could not control the town into ignoring Titus's reads.
The scumteam could not control the town into ignoring the day-end wagon.
The scumteam could not control the town into not thinking about their stances on Titus.
The scumteam could not control my reevaluation coming into D3 and me thinking that the scumteam is not any of Dwlee/T3/Norwee (as shown by how I almost entered today with a 1v1 with Dwlee who was a top suspect coming into D3 for me!).
The scumteam could not even, from D1, control D3 being lylo! (Although this is the one they have the most control over, it's not infallible.)

The scumteam could make

plans

to

hope

that these happened.
And IF the scumteam IS T3-Dwlee-Norwee, those things WOULD have happened.
But the scumteam could not have

controlled

them to happen.

They could try to make them happen--but you're not presenting the evidence of them trying to make those things happen. You're saying it happened and that the scum basically hope and prayed for it to happen and then lucked out with it ending up actually happening.
And even if they DID try to make it happen (which I don't see evidence of), they had no guarantee it WOULD happen.

I reiterate my stance of a scumteam made up of Norwee, T3, and Dwlee requiring a combination of good planning and godly luck. Because for them to be scum, it requires them to have executed their plan basically flawlessly and get lucky in the best possible outcome for them, something they did not have much possible control over, much possible influence over.

They are getting away with it right now since you're about to vote me out and hand them the game win on a platter. Why would scum!them decide not to take the easy win?

This is yet again taking modern knowledge of D3 to justify an action on D1. And again, that doesn't hold up.

D1 actions need D1 justifications.

And there's precious few for a T3-Norwee-Dwlee scumteam to act the way they did.

If you want to just assume the scum team is "low effort" and the town team is "high effort" why do you even sign up for games? why even read anything? Meta is imperfect. I'm sure you could win lots of games by blindly following meta.

Oh sure meta is imperfect, but it is still a tool.

One which is multilayered here. Site meta suggests that your proposed team is incredibly unlikely and player meta also suggests that your proposed team is incredibly unlikely. That, aside from how 2/3 of the slots individually look town on their own merits. Yes, Norwee and T3 voted out both town, but town can be wrong in their suspicions and think that a town player is scum.

What makes Norwee and T3's suspicions be from scum rather than be from wrong-town? That's something you've not given a good answer for, other than the flawed narrative of "the players they voted thought they were scum", which there's numerous issues with. Among them chronology for Limit and the motive not holding up for Titus.

Norwee's play looks like town.

T3's play looks like town.

Their interactions don't look scum-scum.

Meta backs up them not being scum.

Site meta backs them being incredibly unlikely to be scum.

All of those tools reach the same conclusion: Norwee-T3-Dwlee is an unlikely scumteam.

It is not

impossible

for all of the tools to be wrong. And if they are wrong, it is because you were correct. The improbable stacking up with the improbable happened to be true and occur. The scumteam did the things they did, hoping it'd work out for them, and it ended up working out for them.

But it IS something that is

improbable

.

I keep crunching the numbers--I literally went to sleep last night thinking of this game. I literally thought about it for hours in my sleep as I was dreaming. I considered the various angles and they all said the same thing. "Not impossible, sure. But requires various BIG gambles that they had no way of knowing would pay off, happening to pay off."

It also requires RCEnigma to be town here--when honestly? I struggle to see this as an RCEnigma towngame. You might argue that RCEnigma is demotivated town, resigned to a loss, who knows he's not going to win the game so isn't bothering to try, and is thus apathetic.

But that flies in the face of what I know about RCEnigma. That attitude fits his scumgame, sure, but not his towngame. I've looked into even games where he was more apathetic, and even in those, he had a fire to him absent from this one. I literally looked over like 10 towngames and in none of them could I find the defeatist apathetic lifeless RCEnigma that I see in this game, whereas that was basically immediately apparent in his scumgame.

And it also flies in the face of the meta I gathered on you, which I already talked about.

And it also flies in the face of the fact that RCEnigma has done nothing which looks town this game. Tell me, what makes RCEnigma be town here? What makes his slot be town? That other slots are scum? That apathy is something you think is town from him when apathy is in fact not a towntell and is in fact usually if anything a scumtell?

And it also flies in the face of VCA--a T3/Dwlee/Norwee scumteam means that no scum ever received any threatening amount of votes the entire game. That sort of scumteam which receives no votes is NOT a scumteam incentivized to be top posters/top contributors. Yes, you can argue that being top posters contributing heaviest MADE them not get votes, but that doesn't answer the question of why they would be incentivized and motivated to be at the top like that.

And even if they had the incentive to do so, it's not a guarantee they would succeed. Efforting as scum is more exhaustive. Efforting as scum takes more out of you than efforting as town, ESPECIALLY long-term. You can get away with efforting for one day phase as scum. Efforting for THREE day phases in a ROW is, on the other hand, much much much harder, nigh-impossible, for scum to do. Not actually impossible, sure. But highly improbable.

And this also applies for why, after having done the effort and been under no threat, the scumteam felt the need to be the ones pushing through eliminations rather than letting the town do the eliminations for them--why did the scum need to force through eliminations when the town was already eliminating itself without their help?

We wagoned Bingle to L-2.
We wagoned Fairy Circle to L-1.
Even without Norwee, T3, and Dwlee, The Limit Does Not Exist had three votes on them, placing them at L-3 without the alleged scumteam, which by plurality would've been nigh-guaranteed to be enough for the elimination to go through

without

the help of scum.

Why did the scumteam feel a need to directly force through a town elimination when they could get away with letting the town eliminate town without having lifted a hand at all?

All of this builds up.

It adds up.

Any one of these could be wrong.

But for each that is wrong, you are asking me to pile on improbability after improbability and requiring me to go with less likely answers that are more of a stretch and require more leaps in logics and which are statistically anomalies and going with things that simply put, just...collectively, don't make sense as being the case.

You are literally pocketed right now. That's just a fact.

Sure, if Norwee is scum here, I am pocketed, that is true and a self-apparent fact. If Norwee-T3-Dwlee is the scumteam I get a dunce cap for having singlehandedly cost the town the game. If Norwee is scum, then I am currently pocketed, sure.

But that does nothing to address my question/argument:

How did Norwee

know

that he would pocket me?

He

couldn't

have known.

I asked how Norwee could have predicted I would townread all three of Norwee/T3/Dwlee going into lylo.
You responded that I am pocketed.
That takes current gamestate into past actions and doesn't serve to address the question.
It may be fact that if Norwee is scum I am pocketed here, sure!

That does nothing to break the pocket because my question was directly asking how he could generate that gamestate. I asked how he could rely on me to be pocketed.
You said that him 100% townreading me was his attempt to do that.
But I've pointed out that him saying that had 0% of an impact on my read of his slot.
So how could he have known that I was going to townread him?

I keep looking and the answer remains the same.

For Norwee to be scum requires a sequence of unlikely events where he was hoping things would come true and lucked out big time with them ending up being true in spite of him being unable to control them. I don't think that is an unfair assessment. I don't think that even an arrogant-Norwee-scum could in his arrogance think it pure skill and would be the first to admit to having lucked out. But Norwee-scum does require precisely that.

For the unlikely chain of events to be the case and for him to have lucked out in them having worked out in his favor in spite of how at every turn there were multiple ways for him to be caught, for him to fail, for him to end up being caught.

In contrast, what it takes for RCEnigma to be scum is fairly simple: town fighting town, not realizing they are fighting town, and scum doing basically nothing.

LOGIC: When you kill people who suspect you by voting them out, there are

fewer

people who suspect you later, this allows you to win the game.

This doesn't actually hold true.

When you kill people who suspect you by voting them out, their suspicions are immortalized. They don't have any chance to change their suspicion.

Players who were wrong before meanwhile have time to reevaluate and reassess their reads. At any stage, a deepwolf could have their town credit shot to oblivious by a shifting in the POE and a degradation in the towncred they were given. After all, both your slot (Emperor) and Datisi topped the townreads of most players early-on. Yet there's plenty of suspicion on them now, in spite of lacking it early.

Again--how would the scum have the ability to control the lylo slots' suspicions being less on them than other slots after reevaluation and paranoia set in? They fundamentally cannot.

You're arguing for the scumteam to have taken an action that factually doesn't actually hold up as true. Because voting players suspecting you out does not in fact make fewer people suspect you later, as the slots that were suspicious of you before are immortalized in having that suspicion without a chance to say otherwise and the slots who weren't suspicious of you before can and do reevaluate to regain suspicion.

And even IF it held true--the motive is flawed. I've pointed out numerous ways the planned strategy could have failed and was prone to exactly that and had a high chance of backfiring.

We know that IF Norwee-T3-Dwlee are the scumteam that the proposed planned strategy didn't fail and didn't backfire and that in spite of the flaws in the motive that they ended up going through with it. Again, basically god-tiered luck by making a high-risk play that happened to be rewarded highly.

But that doesn't change that the proposed scumteam would need to have taken an action that doesn't actually inherently help them, as a (flawed) motive for their play, which doesn't match prior experience with their modus operandi, which has multiple failure conditions at every step of the way.

That is what a highly active town team in control of the thread looks like. Look at this game's graveyard. Do you see a single flipped scum? That is a giant flashing neon sign that the people in control of the thread are NOT the town.

This is an argument you should know has flaws in it.

Namely: not every game with an active town ends up with dead scum.

Your argument here is basically, "active town in some games have eliminated scum early, this game has no eliminated scum early, and thus the players most active are scum".

But that ignores countless towngames where the town was active but

didn't

eliminate scum early

in spite of

being in control of the thread. Town can be in control of the game and still eliminate town.

So:

What makes this active scum rather than town active that didn't eliminate scum early?

You've given me nothing there.

The

best

way to play scum is to be bold, to be brazen, to take control of the thread and kill town over and over until they don't have any room to breathe

Aside from how that's something that is not really true, let's humor the argument:

Just because you believe this:
What makes Norwee believe this?
What makes T3 believe this?
What makes Dwlee believe this?

For the proposed scumteam to be true, all three would have to believe your viewpoint and NOT believe mine.

And then, even if they DID all believe it to be true, you run into an additional problem:
How could Norwee, as scum, manage to pull this off when he has previously been unable to over a long span of time?
How could Dwlee, as scum, continuously manage to pull this off?
How could T3, as scum, continuously manage to pull this off?

Just because you know the theoretical advantages of efforting does not mean you can necessarily do so, especially over a long duration of time.

The scumteam you propose requires ALL of that. For ALL of Norwee/T3/Dwlee to believe efforting is the most important thing to do AND for them to then be able to pull it off.

Just because you might want to effort as scum does not mean you can effort as scum--but if Norwee/T3/Dwlee are scum here then they managed to, over a long period of time, consistently do precisely that. In spite of how much burnout playing scum is, especially back to back as would be necessary for Norwee/Dwlee to be scum.

Norwee/Dwlee were already fatigued from Open Draft Mafia, burned out from that--so for them to have topped activity charts in THIS game would require them to somehow have not burnt out at all and shown zero fatigue, zero slowdown, in their play over the entirety of the game, in spite of them efforting harder than they did in Open Draft Mafia.

[mastina]

Read to 133 and fuuuuuuck I do admit that Aristeia does make good points,

and

last night, I actually dreamt about the game again, desperate to solve it and even now the cogs are turning and I realized how frighteningly plausible the Norwee/T3/Dwlee scumteam was.

If that is the scumteam, I technically have another 24 hours to figure it out.

But if that is NOT the scumteam, then I am out of time and need to vote now.

I really really REALLY wish I had more time because I need it. I really fucking need the extra time, but I don't have it, can't count on schadd to give it as there's no justifiable way to get more time so I've got to do this.

VOTE: RCE

I will however promise this;

If the scumteam is Norwee/T3/Dwlee for TWO MONTHS I will not push hard on D1;
If the scumteam is Norwee/T3/Dwlee for ONE MONTH I will not push hard on D2.

In all my future games.

I've signed up for like five, ten games which'll start very very soon so I promise you that I will stay true to my word and if I singlehandedly cost the entire town the game, that is my penance, that is my promise; no tunneling, no hard-pushing, from me in ANY future game because I obviously don't deserve to if I fucked up that badly this game.

And yes, I CAN do that, it IS a promise I can keep because tunneling is a choice of playstyle and it is fully possible for me to not do so, meaning this promise carries weight.

I might adjust the dates to be longer, my basic idea was to make the length of me not tunneling be at least as long as this game if not double.

Butyeah, I ran out of time.

Sorry.

[mastina]

dwlee, you are aware rce is at y-1 and you wouldn't longcon this riiiight?

oh no, i'm having hope for this game...

Same.

Seeing both of you present and not hammering is an "oh thank fuck" moment.

But I really hope that Dwlee isn't just long conning here.

[mastina]

(On mobile waiting on the dentist so can't do much until I get home.

[mastina]

So at this stage, possible scumteams:

RCE-Norwee-T3: kinda hard to understand why they would commit to such strong hard bussing tho.
RCE-Norwee-Dwlee: Why didn't scum hammer Aristeia when T3 voted there? Seems questionable.
RCE-Norwee-Datisi: Same issue, why didn't scum hammer Aristeia when T3 voted there? Also runs into the nigh-impossibility of Norwee + Datisi as a scumteam. Of all the possible scumteams, this is the one least likely imo and the one I am most ruling out.
RCE-Norwee-Aristeia: kinda hard to understand why they would commit to such strong hard bussing tho. Is even more hard-bussing than RCE-Norwee-T3 would be.

RCE-Aristeia-T3: possible, although it requires T3 to have been bussing both of his partners yesterday.
RCE-Aristeia-Dwlee: Possible, although it requires Dwlee to have hammered RCE and to have voted RCE in prior day phases.
RCE-Aristeia-Datisi: Possible, literally the only piece of evidence against this is that Datisi's posts look town. Nothing in the slots' associatives suggests he can't be scum with either of them. (At least to my memory.)

RCE-Datisi-T3: Why didn't scum hammer Norwee? They had every opportunity to.
RCE-Datisi-Dwlee: Why didn't scum hammer Norwee? They had every opportunity to. They could have also hammered Aristeia, too, as Norwee's vote was on her for a long long time.

RCE-Dwlee-T3: Why didn't scum hammer Norwee? They had every opportunity to. They could have also hammered Aristeia, too, as Norwee's vote was on her for a long long time.

So removing the scumteams that are basically impossible due to requiring gamethrowing, we're left with:

RCE-Norwee-T3: kinda hard to understand why they would commit to such strong hard bussing tho.
RCE-Norwee-Aristeia: kinda hard to understand why they would commit to such strong hard bussing tho. Is even more hard-bussing than RCE-Norwee-T3 would be.

RCE-Aristeia-T3: possible, although it requires T3 to have been bussing both of his partners yesterday.
RCE-Aristeia-Dwlee: Possible, although it requires Dwlee to have hammered RCE and to have voted RCE in prior day phases.
RCE-Aristeia-Datisi: Possible, literally the only piece of evidence against this is that Datisi's posts look town. Nothing in the slots' associatives suggests he can't be scum with either of them. (At least to my memory.)

Literally the ONLY scumteam without Aristeia is RCE-Norwee-T3, a scumteam that requires T3 to have bussed, RCE and Norwee to have cross-bussed, and also for Norwee to have bussed the RCE slot and then doing it again D2.

Suffice to say: is quite unlikely for Aristeia to be town here.

Not voting tho as I want time not only for action coordination but also to make sure the RCE-Norwee-T3 scumteam does in fact not hold weight.

[mastina]

I have two jailkeep potions from the reroll.
NOBODY town will use poison tonight, and i will jailkeep Datisi.

If scum kills we will confirm Datisi town and it is possibly T3. If Datisi scum they can’t kill. If mafia no kills we reach 4v1 scenario which is very bad for scum.

Here is my plan:

- Kill Aristeia. We go into night 4v1 town/mafia.
- I jailkeep main suspect Datisi. Nobody uses potion.
- We eliminate Datisi, if that fails i jailkeep T3 and we eliminate him. As long as we agree on an Aristeia scumflip that mafia is NEVER: Me/Dwlee/Mastina. This is auto.

Nobody uses pain potion*
Obviously using harmography or doctor is fine.

This is a good plan, but do you mind if I make a contingency counterplan?
That is, YOU know this to not be the case, and I am 95% certain that it is not the case, and upon an Aristeia scumflip this plan becomes unnecessary but to cover all bases, I'd prefer we have a plan for if Aristeia flipped town.

Obviously, you know that won't happen and thus this plan is a waste of time; obviously, even I don't think it's necessary as I feel you're town and Aristeia is scum.

But IF you're scum and Aristeia is town, then if we didn't develop a contingency plan, we'd be kinda fucked.

So my contingency plan would be thus:
IF ARISTEIA FLIPS TOWN (which she probably won't):
-Everyone with a pain potion pain potions Norwee
-Nobody uses a jailkeep, as to not interfere with pain potions
-People are free to use doctors as long as it's not on norwee; people may use watchers as well

IF ARISTEIA FLIPS SCUM (which she almost certainly will):
Follow Norwee's plan described above:
-Nobody with a pain potion uses the pain potion
-Norwee jailkeeps Datisi
-Tomorrow we eliminate Datisi
-Norwee jailkeeps T3
-D6, we eliminate T3

This sound acceptable to y'all?

[mastina]

I believe that if Aristeia isn't hammered, everyone has consented to the day ending anyway so there's no harm in me doing this:
VOTE: Aristeia

[mastina]

Hi, currently busy with job application stuff but wanted to say that I got two doctor potions and used one of them on Norwee last night. (Obviously, the scum can't win if both Norwee and I are alive and I can't doctor myself, so...)

When I have the free time, I intend to do an iso of dead scum and an iso of the living players on dead scum but that'll have to wait.

[mastina]

Btw did an iso of dead scum.
ta vera gave basically nothing; Emperor gave mixed messages hard to sort (if I had to it'd be Datisi > T3 > Dwlee from him but it's incredibly muddy to the point where there's like less than 2% between them imo from him);
RCE's iso looks more partnerey with Datisi (specifically, Datisi >> T3 >>>>>>> Dwlee);
Aristeia's iso looks more partnerey with T3 (specifically, T3 > Datisi >> Dwlee).

I've not iso'd the living players and their relationship with scum, but given that even if I die (since I can't save myself), we have two eliminations, I'm becoming fairly sure we've got the autowin here, as Norwee pretty damn clearly is not scum here and Dwlee from the work I've done is looking like he isn't scum here and even if one of me/Norwee were to die the other wouldn't meaning we're guaranteed two eliminations so as long as I'm right on Norwee town and Dwlee town the game's won for the town so me getting mixed messages as to which of T3/Datisi would be scum doesn't matter.

[mastina]

Btw having iso'd T3 and GCB I think I overall prefer doing things in this order:

VOTE: Datisi

GCB's iso has some decent partner equity with the flipped scum--there's a few weak pieces of evidence that could be anti-buddy, but they are weak, and overall the iso fits as earlygame deepscum.

T3's iso has almost no partner equity. The closest we get is T3 voting other slots instead of the scum with the scum in the POE and occasionally booting the scum out of the POE and placing them in town, buuuuut, while those things are in fact present, his iso has a lot lot lot more of him suspecting, pushing, and voting scum, and overall his iso looks like town who had a genuine read progression.

GCB's reads looked good, but fakeable by competent scum (especially with the overall lack of strong progression); T3's reads look like town that genuinely progressed and developed over time from a viewpoint lacking insider knowledge.

I realize that T3 could be scum here and Datisi could be town here but overall there's more evidence pointing to Datisi-scum imo than there is to T3-scum.

[mastina]

Counterpoint: what if my reads list earlier was perfect except you and t3 swapped places

?

[mastina]

one doc potion

(Btw I lied about having two doctor potions. I only had the one, which I did in fact use on Norwee. I wanted to make sure Norwee lived so I bluffed. )

[mastina]

Has good and accurate reads / Is good at convincing others to their cause / is able to obvtown
Choose one! (You will suck at everything else)

I mean I'm consistently #3 but I switch between 1/2 fairly often and the two are often directly correlated--when I'm accurate I'm not listened to; when I'm listened to I'm not accurate.

(I did my best to weaponize it tho this game. Used the tunnels on town to try and deliberately set up a gamestate where all the scum immediately died. Kinda sad I chose the wrong vote in T3/Datisi in the last day but technically speaking, I achieved the goal I set out to with three consecutive scum eliminations. )

[mastina]

Also have you attempted to out-meta yourself by re-evaluating when people are going with your reads?

Oh I do that all the time, just behind the scenes usually. I mention it when it becomes relevant. (I often feel that, even if I am tunneling on town, that is not necessarily a bad thing for the game. I know it sounds like it always would be, but I've got a methodology behind when, where, and why I tunnel. So even if I am aware I am tunneling and being followed and that the person I am tunneling is probably town, I've often reasons for not specifying that/backing out. But it HAS happened before, where I felt the need to back out of the tunnel and explained why. I realize tunneling is incredibly frustrating regardless of the alignment I tunnel on, but I often feel the pros outweigh the cons.)

I have, publicly, stated the reevaluation and accompanying reversal on occasion, but it's something that I only bring up if I feel there is a need to bring it up.

(The way my mind works is insanely complicated. I am always, always thinking about every possible alignment for every player, with every post being made, and thinking about every scumteam possible. Always doubting, always unsure, always without direction. So I bluff, pretend I'm more sure than I am, exaggerate, downplay, try to focus on the things which look more likely given what I know, and so to speak, cut down the workload. It helps my sanity, it helps me stay in games, it helps me always produce useful content, even when I'm wrong, and it's something easy for me to obvtown doing but hard for me to do as scum convincingly. So I try to get the most out of what amounts to me being lazy, cutting corners, and not being fully/truly honest to myself. I never lie, but when I say I'm 95% certain on something, it's probably closer to half that.)

[mastina]

(On that note, since I've been explaining my methodology and how what I post is not nearly all of what goes through my brain, I'm kinda sorta waiting for the day where I'm doing my normal tunnel routine and then someone asks me to humor them and make a post or a few where I am 100% completely honest, true to myself, and lay out all of my thoughts and go into things legitimately as they naturally would be. For a short while, I'd humor them. Wouldn't want to do it longterm tho. This is more or less what you'd have been in for had I been wrong on D3 since I was dead serious with my promise--I CAN in fact, not tunnel in games. All it takes is unleashing my 100% completely honest true to myself play. I just really fucking

hate

doing that longterm because I feel so worthless, directionless, and deadweight when I employ that longterm.)