Newbie 2076 [Game Over]

[alstroemerial]

VOTE: Astra our names are too similar
There can only be one

[alstroemerial]

Not enough to change vote but in Gen 4 I genuinely found chimchar overrated, sorry.

[alstroemerial]

What on earth? T3 with an AVATAR?

[alstroemerial]

Pagetop

[alstroemerial]

In terms of the tbh tell, the last time I tried to apply it, it led me astray because, as mentioned above, the person just talked (wrote?) like that. I've seen games where it is a notable difference in someone's style, but I suspect in newbie games it will generally be harder to apply.

Also, I am in the camp that there is no need for a tracker to claim on page 3, or even Day 1 for that matter unless they get close to elimination. Still, this is the sort of gambit that I've discovered is well within T3's wheelhouse so I don't see it as particularly indicative.

[alstroemerial]

due to them having a similar-sounding name to Astra)
I need slightly more data on Turtwig and Astra to formulate a read, but mor

This is fine with me also coming right up as I'm catching up

[alstroemerial]

Okey dokey, here is where I am at.

I am getting strong town sense from Margot, contrary to what some others have said. It seems like she is really trying to sort -- some internal back and forth is good. I really liked 53 although I didn't check the math. It reads to me like a newbie who is really determined to put in the work.

Hockey is a town lean for me, though I disagree with the argument in 94 that withholding information is

always

anti-town. If someone is trying to bait a trap or is an investigation role who doesn't want to share results until they have a guilty, etc, there are some cases where that's good to hold back. If T3 was trying to do a spicy town play, which is totally T3, then not spelling out the details is beneficial. But the way that he's making his argument reads town, even if I disagree with it. Although I just realized it could be scum trying to get info on what the play is. Still not enough to change my read though.

T3 is probably town for the exact reason that Hockey outlined -- it's a huge gambit for scum to do right out the gate, so it seems unlikely.

Roden is null. 77 struck me as weird as well, but I don't see why scum would town lock T3 after that risky play. Then again, he then went on to walk back that town lock in 91.

Clasko and Egix are null.

The Astra slot is a sliiiiight scum lean because even with so few posts and the swift replace out, it seemed like she might have been jumping on the LQ wagon, and her RVS vote was also a wagon.

LQ -- I get a bad sense from 125. It reads a bit like complaining about getting scumread with a liiitle smidgeon of omgus, especially considering they imply that T3's gambit isn't scummy in 57 before bringing in a little more setup speculation.

The main thing that gives me pause is the very fact that LQ is a wagon already. It could be a quick and easy miselim. I also have no interest in pushing anyone to E-1 right now, so I'll leave my vote on the Astra slot for now to put a little extra fire on whoever joins in.

[alstroemerial]

Maybe it is general site meta, but I haven't seen it this early in any of the games I've played or read in Rome :/

[alstroemerial]

Since I also took issue with a defensive tone in my reads post, I would say that being overly defensive is suspicious because, up to a point, town should be okay with being suspected — it helps other people develop their reads and everyone solve. Scum OTOH are often much more wary about how they’re perceived and more eager to satisfy town or take down any suspicions as soon and thoroughly as possible.

I say up to a point because, in a case like yours now that you’re a E-1, it becomes more troubling to town because you want to avoid getting mislimmed entirely.

I do agree that Roden’s agreement with T3 in and of itself isn’t AI — I will say that I’m also more confident in my T3 read and think there’s no reason for the two of them to do this as a team, so there is a universe where Roden is pocketing. Still I think it’s more likely for Roden to just also be an eager town.

[alstroemerial]

I think that if it’s someone’s first forum game then it could be a reasonable assumption that someone who dropped out of the game had the vote removed.

[alstroemerial]

If I’m processing right, everyone has checked in since Hockey’s claim except for Clasko, so unless Clasko cc’s then we can clear Hockey. So we’ll see tomorrow when the V/LA ends but odds are good.

Mobileposting on today’s catch-up so I’ll be doing shorter posts.

[alstroemerial]

Since I also took issue with a defensive tone in my reads post, I would say that being overly defensive is suspicious because, up to a point, town should be okay with being suspected — it helps other people develop their reads and everyone solve. Scum OTOH are often much more wary about how they’re perceived and more eager to satisfy town or take down any suspicions as soon and thoroughly as possible.

That might be okay in theory, but it simply doesn't work in practice.

Can you explain more what you mean by this?

[alstroemerial]

Nothing immediately alignment-indicative has come from Egix yet, and

the 'vibes' post on Hockey was a bit 'meh',

but they're making an effort with their recent reads and are looking at alternate angles for them that weren't immediately obvious to me.

For when you come back: are you able to explain why that was?
On that note: I'm finding Alstro's 130 to be meh, mainly because I don't vibe with the reasoning given in the first and last paragraphs.

Do you have any questions about those paragraphs? Or, also, does it help if I add that, in light of recent developments, part of the reason I had Margot so high was I thought she had hinted tracker, so I’m less confident now that I know that’s not the case. Can’t see enough to push to a SL though. As for the last paragraph, it was just some general comment on the wagon?

[alstroemerial]

Re 182: fair enough that it can vary on a person to person basis

[alstroemerial]

If I’m processing right, everyone has checked in since Hockey’s claim except for Clasko, so unless Clasko cc’s then we can clear Hockey. So we’ll see tomorrow when the V/LA ends but odds are good.

Mobileposting on today’s catch-up so I’ll be doing shorter posts.

@Turtwig if you saw the end of my #55, you would already know I claimed I wasn't the Tracker.

I agree with your reasoning for the Roden slot. Whilst it's easy to hide behind a strategy, I think they've chosen a weird place to position themselves, and a possibly unadvantageous one as scum given T3's play at the beginning of the game, which is why I would give Roden slightly more townier status than your null one to them, rn.
Hockey is more-or-less conftown (so now I currently have no scum reads), and your Margot read I agree with (but slightly different reasoning). We differ on our LQ reads, and additionally I agree with your opinion, and Roden's #167 (after looking at LQ's ISO at start of game) that the wagon on them was too quick to form over a speculation of RQS.

Do you disagree/agree with any of my reads? #115 to #121? Granted #115 is incorrect, and ig they're sort of a lifetime ago at this point.

Whoops, I only checked posts after the tracker claim.

In terms of the reads I agree with pretty much all of them except I would put T3 a bit higher, just because it seems like a lot for scum to do out of the gate. I know T3 has done some wild stuff as town, but I haven’t seen it with scum.

[alstroemerial]

Actually, LQ's post on me can't be faked.

Which one?

[alstroemerial]

Typed a post and my internet died f hang on a bit

[alstroemerial]

Ok take 2 answering Hockey’s 224, cliff notes cause I don’t want to retype everything ;-;

1: that’s why there’s the “gives me pause” phrase: I find LQ’s behavior scummy independently. However the wagon is what’s holding me back. It is possible that it is a town-driven wagon, maybe with a bussing partner. So LQ is low on the list but I didn’t move my vote with all that.

2: I liked Roden’s answers to your questioning regarding withholding information. Also liked the post to T3 that was like, “let’s move on from this tracker thing as it’s distracting from scumhunting.”

[alstroemerial]

I agree that the “I feel meh about this flip but I’m gonna vote it anyway” is worse than the green comment.

However, I’ll ask Clasko this. What would you make of a red T3 flip?

[alstroemerial]

Because I’m not totally sure if it was a perspective slip but I am 100% sure that it’s a weak reason to vote someone.

On that note I think I need to UNVOTE: because I like the strange slot and do some more thinking.

[alstroemerial]

Regarding Hockey’s 296: it’s the phrasing of the vote post (216) which implies that a flip is not that interesting, combined with both no hard push on T3 or any conviction that it’s scum. There is their earlier 118, but in terms of both post # and time that’s a ways off.

The game has been so quiet that it’s hard to find someone that I feel super duper fired up about. But I get that we all want to save ourselves from a no elim and that countdown is making me a little nervous. Looking at Clasko again though I don’t really SR it? I don’t think scum would close the door on fakeclaiming tracker early like in 55, and it seems like they’re trying to solve. Curious how they answer my question.

I just don’t have enough SRs this game that I was kind of hoping I’d sus Clasko more when I looked but I don’t see it lol

[alstroemerial]

Well, LQ, you basically got me pegged. I've been posting through some personal stuff from my phone over the weekend because I'm going to be doing a more "LA" V/LA later this week. The fewer conclusions are mostly because I've been posting reactions but not clicking back to earlier in the thread to think about it in conjunction with what's happened. But for at least the next few days I am here and back with a computer so let's see what I can do

[alstroemerial]

Oh I know, I know. The game would be pretty pointless if everyone could clear themselves by being like "s*** happened."

I’ll ask Clasko this. What would you make of a red T3 flip?

So, I'm not 100% sure of what the question is, so if you had something more specific in mind, let me knwo and i'll answer, but I think T3's red flip has a good chance of clearing me and Roden:

Me, because, assuming scum!Clasko and scum!T3, then after my slip (which, in this context, IS a scum slip), T3 has two options: 1) point out the slip immediately to gain max. distancing points, or 2) claim ignorance and go about as they were. The first option puts scum!Clasko at risk of a D1 elim, and following my elim, scum!T3 still has to get three townies elimmed for D2, 3 and 4 with one/two town power roles out there - this is heavily against scum!T3's wincon if we're both scum. T3 is a wildcard, but is competent, and competent scum always play to wincon, meaning option 2 is much more likely.

Roden, because of their play at the beginning of the game. Newbie games tend to be more focused on homing in on what looks surface-scummy, so immediately they both aren't doing themselves any favours by locktowning each other for intangible reasons that they refuse to elaborate clearly on, which, again, I think goes against wincon as it opens them both up for potential elimination. Too much risk for VERY little reward IMO.

As for everyone else, it's hard to judge based on the limited interactions, but something I will say, and this is more of a consensus thing, is that if T3 flips red, then LQ's scum equity with T3 increases by a fraction. Scum are likely to interact with their partner in the main thread in some form or other, whether it be through votes, arguments, pushes, busses, or what have you (to avoid being seen as a pair), and their vote towards LQ feels like a classic "pushing without pushing" to get some distance/seem busy with eachother, but this is based on consensus rather than the player's meta.

This is the type of thing I was looking for, yes. I think your argument about LQ is interesting. I looked back at their combined ISO and ended up just getting confused by T3's read progression on LQ. They have that light push on LQ that you mention, and then pivot to a town read with 217 and immediately switch to Clasko. But it's unclear what that's referring to. The most recent stuff LQ says about T3 is how he's waiting for something spectacular but I don't see what's potentially fake about that or anything.

I do agree that you and T3 are a highly unlikely pair.

[alstroemerial]

For now, I'm going to VOTE: Egix to try to squeeze some more content out. Question for you: Has your read on LQ changed since 111 given that they've been particularly active, and since the whole slip discussion?

[alstroemerial]

For now, I'm going to VOTE: Egix to try to squeeze some more content out. Question for you: Has your read on LQ changed since 111 given that they've been particularly active, and since the whole slip discussion?

I won't be able to sit down and form a comprehensive, updated read until I am back from visiting my grandparents today, but for the time being I will say that I don't think it's a good idea to yeet the top poster on D1 unless there is a very compelling case for them being scum, because if they flip town it's a huge blow.

Yes... That is also something that was on my mind while I was pondering LQ considering the game's pace. Still, some of LQ's progression is suspicious, like the stuff you pointed out about Clasko. I am wondering how possible it is that the reason the wagon happened so quickly wasn't opportunistic scum bandwagoning but rather that we found it and then just got nervous at the speed and backed off collectively. But I really appreciate LQ's argument against, you know, eliminating slots that are likely green. And on that note I will VOTE: Strange (that's e-2)

VOTE: alstromerial

Sup I know it's PoE but is there anything can I do here to save myself from the day pool lol

VOTE: Strange

For being uh... strange.

This feels pretty close to a naked vote considering you just mentioned the term, and that you hopped off Clasko right after asking T3 "what about Clasko?" Can you say more about this vote?

[alstroemerial]

If Strange is red I think it is more likely that Clasko is town

[alstroemerial]

Yes... That is also something that was on my mind while I was pondering LQ considering the game's pace. Still, some of LQ's progression is suspicious, like the stuff you pointed out about Clasko. I am wondering how possible it is that the reason the wagon happened so quickly wasn't opportunistic scum bandwagoning but rather that we found it and then just got nervous at the speed and backed off collectively. But I really appreciate LQ's argument against, you know, eliminating slots that are likely green. And on that note I will VOTE: Strange (that's e-2)

Ok so you're voting me and then saying that's a naked vote?

Yes I am still working on the case but I've been a bit busy.

The prior sentence is the clothing Tying in LQ's 362 I see that it did get a bit tangled because I referenced LQ's "clothing" and then was like "I do not see it." because it wasn't in the same post.

[alstroemerial]

UNVOTE: Strange based on 374. I don't think scum Clasko would post 398 either.

[alstroemerial]

With that, now I want to go back to VOTE: Egix. I have to

V/LA until Sunday

; I'll be trying to follow along the thread so I can hopefully help protect us from a no elim and try to continue to chime in a bit.

[alstroemerial]

Do you get told if you were targeted?

[alstroemerial]

I’m also going to assume that since you haven’t immediately jumped on someone that you don’t have a guilty, so it’s probably best to keep the result quiet to not give mafia a target.

[alstroemerial]

Yeah, that makes sense (re 622). But I’m back from my V/LA and the LQ wagon and flip give us a lot to work with in terms of traditional scumhunting, so we still have stuff to do today without a guilty. I’ve been getting ready to go to bed since Day 2 started but will be diving in tomorrow

[alstroemerial]

I actually don't particularly disagree with an Alstro vote. I think the final scum has to be someone who wasn't particularly active. The reason being that last night's failed NK only comes from someone who wasn't paying attention to the conversations everyone had, because targeting the Tracker should've been the obvious wrong answer.

VOTE: Alstro

Scum could also be willing to gamble on a 50-50 shot that we're in a setup with an FN given that they're in a tight spot. I am curious about Clasko though given that he was prodded and we haven't heard from him since, but since he hasn't been replaced he must have picked up the prod during the night. Either way, there are some circumstances where a player could find that targeting the tracker is the right answer. /shrug

Been saying since mid D1 that the team that made most sense to me was Alstro and LQ. Alstro's reads always seemed hedgey, and they basically never addressed LQ whatsoever except to say they thought they *may* have been behaving scummy during the tunnel

This is a more compelling case against me than the above. My progression on LQ is basically... I was one of the earlier players to cast suspicion in 130 but hedged away from a vote due to the speed of the wagon, which eventually disintegrated before coming back. I confirmed this reason again in 249 and then speculate about a LQ/T3 team in 322. So, there was some more than the tunnel and was more forceful than the "may" in Margot's post. I missed the final wagon due to V/LA.

The above team speculation seems more pertinent to me now given that T3 was someone who was TRing LQ for awhile up to the hammer. Started out against LQ but flipped after 217, which I asked for clarification about in 241 but never got an answer to. Was pushing LQ as town hours before hammering in 554 and even hammered while saying the slot is "probably town."

Looking at the two major LQ wagons:
1: Roden, Strange, T3 (before the above stuff), Margot
2: Margot,

Ythan

, Strange, Roden, T3 (with caveat)

So, the second was the same group of folks plus Ythan, who is confirmed town. Clasko, whom I mentioned above, is on neither while T3 is on both. But I find it really hard to imagine scum posting 398 and suggesting their own elimination. So for now I want to VOTE: T3 with the question again: why were you so sure that LQ was town?

[alstroemerial]

Also I don't mind turbo E-2 but please don't turbo lim me without last words

[alstroemerial]

as I'm sworn under oath, I'd never hurt a flyyyyy

wanna answer my question though

[alstroemerial]

Wasn’t B1 and B3 equally likely from scum’s perspective before last night?

[alstroemerial]

Hmmmm ok I understand, and based on that I'm more comfy with my T3 vote atm

[alstroemerial]

I don't have a clear because Clasko hasn't visited the site since Wed Aug 18, 2021 7:21 am.

Wait, then shouldn't Clasko be replaced?

Huh? Wouldn't T3 also be cleared by that logic?

What I'm taking away from this is that the reason why everyone thought we had a doctor on D1 has to do with the T3 gambit and that makes me want to vote for him.

Don’t see how advocating for eliminating yourself is really a town thing to do unless you know it has some sort of benefit for Town to do so.

Clasko made an argument for how he thought it could benefit town, because of all the discourse over the slip and the subsequent information we'd gain. So while there's some conceivable reasons why town might want their own elim, it's much more rare for that to be true for scum. The only circumstance I can imagine is that your red flip would make your partner look good, but there wasn't anything like that with Clasko and LQ.

[alstroemerial]

Investigating this in some more detail:

54: Clasko defending LQ's RQS

(support)

69: LQ gives Clasko a Null read after Clasko claims not tracker
121: Clasko gives LQ a Town Lean

(support)

127: LQ upgrades Clasko to a Town Lean despite not mentioning Clasko since 69

(support)

215: a soft defend of LQ from Clasko to Roden by pushing for Margot instead

(support)

216: Clasko sheeps LQ while giving the infamous slip

(support)

250: LQ votes Clasko based on the slip

(bus?)

258: LQ makes more of a push on Clasko

(bus?)

267: In Clasko's defense, casts some suspicion on LQ but I don't really follow the logic, but then...

(bus?)

268: Clasko says he'd rather go for Margot than LQ

(support, sort of)

307: Clasko offers LQ that the slip was just bad phrasing
316: LQ makes an interesting post to Clasko in response. Backs off the hard push, hedges, and gives Clasko advice on how to stop getting suspected.

(counting as a support as it's a back off of the previous push)

They don't interact much after this and then Clasko disappears. Given LQ's flip, I can definitely see the argument for the association.

In other news, I just think it's funny that LQ was complaining about people using "bad tells" (that got him caught) and now I'm also seeing a fair bit of buzzword tell in the ISO

I'm inclined to TR Roden, Strange, and Margot in large part due to the flip. I'm not taking T3 out of the pool quite yet. Ythan is confirmed. That leaves Clasko and Egix joining T3 in my PoE pool. But Egix was SL-ing LQ pretty early. I don't really like the idea of wagoning someone who isn't around to defend themselves. So I'll stay where I am for now.

[alstroemerial]

also isnt hockey tracker what happened to that claim kek

Ythan is hockey (also hi!!!)

[alstroemerial]

I feel like scum!Mo would have looked at the game more closely and known that which makes me think it's more likely to be in {Egix, T3}

Also have made it clear yesterday that I don't think it's Margot

[alstroemerial]

I like your new signature

[alstroemerial]

It started as an openness to sheep the tracker. I found the possibility of “mafia wasn’t around to make the kill” and “Clasko wasn’t around” to be a compelling pair of facts as well, which was new info compared to Day 1. As my vote reflects, though, T3 is still my top slot to eliminate. If T3 or Roden would openly post their shared understanding of what T3 was pulling, that could potentially clear everything up. Based on my conclusions from the play, though, it seems like it could be boldfaced PR hunting. That could also match up if we have a doc in the setup and Ythan was targeted, which would be a realistic scenario if it isn’t Clasko-slot.

[alstroemerial]

I'm not sure why you guys keep persisting to get T3 and me to explain what T3 is doing when I've stated multiple times now that it would out the Doc.

I'm not sure why you guys keep persisting to get T3 and me to explain what T3 is doing when I've stated multiple times now that it would out the Doc.

Ok this makes me think Roden is town and you can’t change my mind about this.

Agree that this makes Roden town but does not assuage my feelings about T3. (Also however not sure why this locks in a T3 vote if it wasn’t already @Egix?)

[alstroemerial]

Sorry for double quote

[alstroemerial]

Sorry for double quote

sorry alstro , you have to concede here buddy.

I don't think it would be responsible of me to concede on behalf of everyone

[alstroemerial]

Okay so seeing these last pages play out, there are two possibilities. One, T3 is scum but no one besides Egix is with me, and it seems quite unlikely that that will change before the deadline, so we'll have to wait until PoE or tracker catches him to resolve that. Two, T3 is town and I'm barking up the wrong tree, which would usually have a limited downside because it's still an interaction I can get info from, but in this case, it appears the more I push the more I get run-up, because I don't want to spell out what I think is happening behind the scenes and why I think it's less good than everyone else seems to think. Still, based on what I've read in the thread, I suspect I've likely inadvertently damaged the crap out of T3's plan if he is town. Let me try putting it this way, getting a little more direct without spelling everything out. To those tracking along with T3's gambit, if your understanding of it relies on key assumption(s) and WIFOM-ing the mafia a bit, what if the assumption(s) isn't correct? That's the trail I'm on.

[alstroemerial]

Wow a lot to respond to but I'm going to start by tossing out maybe it doesn't make sense for the doc to CC unless we are pitting Mo against someone, etc. Mo has fakeclaimed PR as town in prior games, or it could be scum!Mo trying to fish out the doctor. The way for scum to save this, I think, is to find the doctor to kill both the PRs ASAP. If Mo is actually doctor, well, I don't think it made sense to claim at all, but Mo's meta adds enough WIFOM that I'm dubious.

tl;dr: if Mo is fakeclaiming doc I don't think that's enough for doc to CC because he has done this as town and would just draw out the actual doc for a nk

[alstroemerial]

Okay so seeing these last pages play out, there are two possibilities. One, T3 is scum but no one besides Egix is with me, and it seems quite unlikely that that will change before the deadline, so we'll have to wait until PoE or tracker catches him to resolve that. Two, T3 is town and I'm barking up the wrong tree, which would usually have a limited downside because it's still an interaction I can get info from, but in this case, it appears the more I push the more I get run-up, because I don't want to spell out what I think is happening behind the scenes and why I think it's less good than everyone else seems to think. Still, based on what I've read in the thread, I suspect I've likely inadvertently damaged the crap out of T3's plan if he is town. Let me try putting it this way, getting a little more direct without spelling everything out. To those tracking along with T3's gambit, if your understanding of it relies on key assumption(s) and WIFOM-ing the mafia a bit, what if the assumption(s) isn't correct? That's the trail I'm on.

Ok I have a problem with this. My problem with this is that nobody on Town can guarantee they know if their assumptions are wrong. In fact, it’s really hard to know what assumptions are wrong until it can be proved that the assumption is wrong, and often this probably won’t happen until after the game ends.

And if the assumption is wrong and someone can provide why it’s wrong, then I’ll just go from what I know is right and try again in a different way. Your post reads kind of paranoid the assumptions made are wrong, but also seems to me as if you don’t want this plan even happening in the first place.

kdfjsdal;kgjslfg this is why it is painful to have the secret gambits be a major topic of conversation. If the sentence didn't mean anything to you then it probably means that you aren't thinking what I'm thinking after all. There is, I'll clarify, ONE specific assumption if people are interpreting T3's thing the same way I did. And the WIFOM becomes the likelihood of if that assumption is true or not. And this could be scum T3 setting up for another gambit later down the line closer to endgame, or town T3 trying to protect the doctor, as people have interpreted more generously. I felt it was more likely that it was the former. I don't know what else I can say without laying all the cards on the table, which everyone has agreed we shouldn't do.

[alstroemerial]

I don't think prolonging the day has gotten us anywhere. We need to come together on a vote before EoD in case the person we run up ends up claiming something other than VT.

Alstro, if you're town and you genuinely believe T3 is scum, you need to come up with a better case than "What if your assumption is wrong?" because even if we are wrong, scum!T3 doesn't ever win at end game anyway. So what exactly makes you think he's scum besides being secretive about his plan? And who else do you think is the second scum if you're wrong about T3?

Alright, I'm sleep-deprived so maybe saying too much, but here's another hint-eroo regarding my earlier posts. Recent conversation offers evidence to readers that my first hypothesis (T3 setting up for endgame) is more likely.

I have said multiple times that my main PoE pool is T3 and Egix. Thus I would most like to move to Egix if not T3. However, again as I have said before, T3 and LQ's interactions on Day 1 can come off as SvS and distancing, especially with the hammer once it was a foregone conclusion that LQ was going to get eliminated.

[alstroemerial]

alstro honestly i think ur town kek

cool B)

but I wish you believed in the T3 E-2 vote for like any reason other than revenge

[alstroemerial]

I hammered lq though.

We were so close to deadline with multiple people away from the game that LQ being the elim was the only realistic option besides a no elim, making a hammer more nai especially if you preface it with this is town

[alstroemerial]

Also this wagon on T3 just feels like most of it is just policy which I don't think is really a good thing.

Egix and I have both given reasons that aren't policy; the only person who seems more dubious in the reason is mo

[alstroemerial]

agh agh agh actually I should have gathered my thoughts instead of posting each one individually. Having thoroughly processed the catchup and in the absence of any cc I find it more likely that the second, town T3 thing is true after all. So, if T3 was scum, it would be for reasons other than what I have been alluding to.

VOTE: Egix because at least T3 did vote for LQ. here are some other things for everyone's consideration, which are more compelling now that I have less reason to believe in my T3 gambit theory:

Spoiler: Egix on LQ

For now, I'm going to VOTE: Egix to try to squeeze some more content out. Question for you: Has your read on LQ changed since 111 given that they've been particularly active, and since the whole slip discussion?

I won't be able to sit down and form a comprehensive, updated read until I am back from visiting my grandparents today, but for the time being I will say that I don't think it's a good idea to yeet the top poster on D1 unless there is a very compelling case for them being scum, because if they flip town it's a huge blow.

early defense

Smh, 250 looks worse now that I've reviewed LQ's posts and seen that he actually had a town lean on Clasko in 127.

On the other hand, I do get mild town feels from 157/159, and as I mentioned earlier, I wouldn't want to jump to conclusions here if it just ends up all being for nothing.

solid hedge

I'd probably still vote LQ first. The flail looked townie, but Margot hasn't really done anything to earn scum points from me. Unless she does some real scummy shit before EoD, I'm putting my vote back on LQ.

I disagree. Aorn I would almost always vote Margot before Quickety.

speaks for itself

What makes you think Margot is scummier?

Eh, it's more that I think she is less towny rather than more scummy, seeing as if I thought anyone were outright scummy I would be hounding them. LQ has 157/159 as I mentioned before, whereas Margot only has the "mixup" I mentioned in 111 (gee that feels like it was ages ago) and although I eased off because of Clasko having a TR on her, it seems that not even he believes in that any more. Also also a bit of "sort by postcount, become werewolf expert".

LQ has made really weird pushes all day while Margot just feels more subdued.

I would say that it's Margot who has been being weird whereas LQ has made opportunistic moves, but now that I've said that... well, that only makes me less right and you more right.

more push on Margot instead of LQ

But yeah, I'm aware of the dilemma: if LQ flips green, I'll feel like a numpty for not having done enough to prevent it, but if he flips red I know I'll look terrible.

[alstroemerial]

It's a longshot given the deadline and that no one else is on Egix; would move back to T3 to prevent a no elim. Or run me up to E-1 for some fun turtle times /wink

[alstroemerial]

Okey if you don't think T3 is mafia, want to move over to Egix for today?

[alstroemerial]

ok lmao I really didn't want to do this but I am the doctor. Didn't CC unless I was at E-1 for reasons outlined in 741.

All of my crumbs and hints below. Lots of reference to the mechanic that the doctor cannot protect themselves at night.

Spoiler:

Nothing immediately alignment-indicative has come from Egix yet, and

the 'vibes' post on Hockey was a bit 'meh',

but they're making an effort with their recent reads and are looking at alternate angles for them that weren't immediately obvious to me.

For when you come back: are you able to explain why that was?
On that note: I'm finding Alstro's 130 to be meh, mainly because I don't vibe with the reasoning given in the first and last paragraphs.

D

o you have any questions about those paragraphs?

O

r, also, does it help if I add that, in light of recent developments, part of the reason I had Margot so high was I thought she had hinted tracker, so I’m less confident now that I know that’s not the case.

C

an’t see enough to push to a SL though. As for the last paragraph, it was just some general comment on the wagon?

The game has been so quiet that it’s hard to find someone that I feel super duper fired up about. But I get that

we all want to save ourselves

from a no elim and that countdown is making me a little nervous. Looking at Clasko again though I don’t really SR it? I don’t think scum would close the door on fakeclaiming tracker early like in 55, and it seems like they’re trying to solve. Curious how they answer my question.

VOTE: alstromerial

Sup I know it's PoE but

is there anything can I do here to save myself

from the day pool lol

With that, now I want to go back to VOTE: Egix. I have to

V/LA until Sunday

; I'll be trying to follow along the thread so

I can hopefully help protect us

from a no elim and try to continue to chime in a bit.

Scum could also be willing to gamble on a 50-50 shot that we're in a setup with an FN given that they're in a tight spot. I am curious about Clasko though given that he was prodded and we haven't heard from him since, but since he hasn't been replaced he must have picked up the prod during the night.

Either way, there are some circumstances where a player could find that targeting the tracker is the right answer.

/shrug

(This was a reference that I was on Tracker last night)

Lastly my suspicion on T3 was that everyone thought he was extremely softing doctor. As doctor you know there's decent odds that there is a tracker, and the same goes if you're in a mafia team with a power role (narrowing the columns down). But then it becomes so overt, like, is T3 actually the doctor or just trying to bait the NK? Hence the WIFOM. But it could also be setting up evidence for a doctor fakeclaim in the endgame.

I truly think Mo is VT who was trying to bait the NK, but oh well we can't have nice things

[alstroemerial]

If I am limmed I'll reiterate that my PoE is {Egix, T3, Mo} but very much in that order (1, 2, 3). I do recognize that my flip will be helpful, which it better be because after that some scumhunting will be necessary without Ythan.

With less than 12 hours to go I'll shift back to VOTE: T3 but I'll be around this evening (EST) to help prevent a no elim somewhere else if necessary (feels more natural to say prevent instead of save if I'm not crumbing. . . . )

[alstroemerial]

Like I said,

Or run me up to E-1 for some fun turtle times /wink

[alstroemerial]

I agree, but it seems like you and I are the only ones that feel that way and I don't want to run out of time

[alstroemerial]

That’s a relief because I was like “does Roden think something completely different and I’m just reading this all wrong?” I do agree he was probably just gambiting as VT.

VOTE: Egix

[alstroemerial]

Can’t you say that for any PR

[alstroemerial]

Ahhh that makes sense

[alstroemerial]

Few hours from the deadline... [nerves]

[alstroemerial]

pain

thank you Penguin for picking up modding, and thanks for playing everyone!