Newbie 2076 [Game Over]

[Egix96]

Hi fellow townies(and T3), hope u have fun this game. Btw @Astra and @MargotRosa, what is your expericne playing mafia.

With that being said,

time to vote mafia

VOTE: T3

Hey there! Never played in forum format, but played a lot of quick chat room format a few years ago after playing a bit with my university drama society, because of course that was a hotbed of RP games

VOTE: Clasko

Piplup is GOAT.

Honestly, having hard opinions on a gen of Pokemon starters that aren't 1 or the most recent one in 2021 is pretty sus.

VOTE: Roden

VOTE: Margot

You're forgetting that the D/P remakes are coming out later this year. Also, "honestly" tell.

P.S. Hockey is town on vibes.

[Egix96]

What is everyone's experience playing Mafia?

I've been playing on MS semi-regularly since I joined.

VOTE: Margot

You're forgetting that the D/P remakes are coming out later this year. Also, "honestly" tell.

P.S. Hockey is town on vibes.

What do you have against honesty?

It's nothing major, but it's simply that scum sometimes have a tendency to overuse words that they think will "sound" more towny.

[Egix96]

IDK what to make of Margot and Astra

Is the fact that Astra is voting LQ not a factor for you?

[Egix96]

Reads update:
Roden - Slight town lean for 72 and 75, as he feels genuinely annoyed about how scum keep getting away with things, and in the case of the latter post, that shows that he is willing to accept other perspectives instead of just tunnelling.

Margot - Has trended downwards since the beginning, mainly because, since stating that she had an "Absolutely scum read on T3" in 53 (if you'll pardon the grammar mistake), she has kept walking it back (56 "I'm not saying T3 is definitely scum.", 88, 96). Her recent mixup is a counterpoint, but it feels like as soon as Clasko posted 55, she realised that her T3 push would not be as viable as she thought.

Quickety - 69 is mildly pinging me because it feels like the last two lines were slapped on just so that the post wouldn't be a one-liner. There's also 47, but that one feels more thonk-y/weird than actually scummy.

===

I would be interested in seeing if Alstro or Clasko have anything to add currently.

[Egix96]

Also, "honestly" tell.

This is still bugging me. Why are people using bad tells? Defensiveness tell? Honestly tell? Why are people still using these? And Roden also used the honestly tell and I think that is bad because they should really know better.

You are mistakenly thinking that I was being completely serious there when it was only more like 50%.

[Egix96]

Nothing immediately alignment-indicative has come from Egix yet, and

the 'vibes' post on Hockey was a bit 'meh',

but they're making an effort with their recent reads and are looking at alternate angles for them that weren't immediately obvious to me.

For when you come back: are you able to explain why that was?
On that note: I'm finding Alstro's 130 to be meh, mainly because I don't vibe with the reasoning given in the first and last paragraphs.

[Egix96]

Also, "honestly" tell.

This is still bugging me. Why are people using bad tells? Defensiveness tell? Honestly tell? Why are people still using these? And Roden also used the honestly tell and I think that is bad because they should really know better.

You are mistakenly thinking that I was being completely serious there when it was only more like 50%.

Okay, well that was really unclear.

The "nothing major" bit was meant to be a hint at that, but

[Egix96]

Do you have any questions about those paragraphs? Or, also, does it help if I add that, in light of recent developments, part of the reason I had Margot so high was I thought she had hinted tracker, so I’m less confident now that I know that’s not the case. Can’t see enough to push to a SL though. As for the last paragraph, it was just some general comment on the wagon?

If I had had any questions, I would have asked them at the time, but it's just that the reasoning felt a bit contrived imo.

So the real question is what Margot thought they were doing (in their second vote on me). There was something else I didn't like... The fact that they very well know they can switch their vote to someone else (demonstrated by their Unvote of T3). So it's just really really weird.

Yeah. At this point I'm just waiting for her to give her side of it.

[Egix96]

Same question to you as I had to Turtwig: Any of my reads you vibe/don't vibe with?

I'm not really seeing any issues with how you've been going about explaining your reads thus far, and I'm willing to admit you may have a point about Margot in 120.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Alstroemerial

^ Not feeling super confident in this vote as of rn, but it's better than idling.

[Egix96]

Clasko said 'a green flip'
Clasko is scum knowing I will flip green

Imagine if scum were that incompetent that they would just blurt that out loud

@Hockey: the gamestate has barely progressed since I made that post, so I don't think there would be much point in me doing that yet.

[Egix96]

Clasko said 'a green flip'
Clasko is scum knowing I will flip green

Uhh... I'll join in with LQ here for the time being even though a green flip doesn't say much at this moment in time:

VOTE: T3

Lol what, voting someone that you dont even SR. Also if you are voting them, why do u expect them to be a green flip?

I think this slot may actually be scum besdies thier towny ish reads earlier

Wait, was it an actual slip? I interpreted it as "if this flips green we gain nothing", though I agree the vote isn't good if T3 isn't a scum read.

That was my Interpretation too.

[Egix96]

Clasko said 'a green flip'
Clasko is scum knowing I will flip green

Imagine if scum were that incompetent that they would just blurt that out loud

@Hockey: the gamestate has barely progressed since I made that post, so I don't think there would be much point in me doing that yet.

I recently played a game where a 2013 joindate casually told the thread exactly what happened in the scum pt and no one batted an eye except me, their scumpartner.pedt:
The meta one.

Everyone was doing nka spec and they say:

"yeah, the deepwolf suggested [we kill Bell]"

Am I right in presuming that that was intentional i.e. openwolfing? If so, that's something I would associate more with an older (by join date) player who would've had more experience with what can and can't be gotten away with.

Clasko not addressing the "green flip" comment is a bad look.

I thought he did that here? vvv

I totally understand how my vote post on T3 can be construed as a slip, but I still maintain his green flip doesn't say much. He's kinda taking a back seat, resting on the laurels of his Tracker plan, or w/e, and using it to give an unfounded locktown on Roden that lacks true justification.

Also, I know you mentioned ADHD, but I'm finding it hard to understand how you could post 250 when you hadn't yet checked the facts.

[Egix96]

yoink

[Egix96]

^^ above message cut off, meant to say You can give them town points, sure, but it was just a bit weird to me, I think I take that read above but still think you're scum indivually. i think egix's scum equity has gone up too recently

If you were not an unCCed tracker, I would have been omgussing you so hard for offhandedly shading me like that.

So I have a question for Egix, why did you make a throwaway vote?

In my opinion, Clasko is more likely town than Alstro due to having reads that are more logically explained/seem less like trying to come up with something weak just to hide TMI. As I said, it could be that he's right and I'm wrong regarding Margot - although, using my own judgement alone, I would probably still yeet Margot if only for the fact that both of her votes so far (not counting re-votes) have been riddled with debacle. Still, I thought it would help to move my vote as I've often had issues in games with tying myself to a single vote for the entire D1.

[Egix96]

Jury's still out on StrangeMatter imo. Sure, there's the whole thing with not taking the tracker claim seriously, as well as the "effort" that T3 pointed out, but I'm not valuing those much because a) 208 was of little value, ultimately (COULD have been faked simply for the purpose of having something to make an entrance with), and b) the effort with finding meta is wasted if the conlusions are not worth more than "grains of salt" by their own admission.
As for anything I can see that's actually scummy, the "we cannot let slips just pass by" part in 279 does feel a bit like posturing, but that is a stretch even if I do say so myself.

[Egix96]

For now, I'm going to VOTE: Egix to try to squeeze some more content out. Question for you: Has your read on LQ changed since 111 given that they've been particularly active, and since the whole slip discussion?

I won't be able to sit down and form a comprehensive, updated read until I am back from visiting my grandparents today, but for the time being I will say that I don't think it's a good idea to yeet the top poster on D1 unless there is a very compelling case for them being scum, because if they flip town it's a huge blow.

[Egix96]

I keep feeling like alstro is not really doing much. I feel like they are just posting to post - like they know they have to post something so they do, but none of it is really convincing because of so much hedging language (which is usually a Scum tell).

Agree but I think thier content has been /towny/ enough.

My reads are pretty similar to 231 except maybe havign strange as a tl, and margot to null

I don't know that LQ has done much to assuage my earlier suspicions. I feel like people backed down from the scum read mainly on the basis of it being a bit of a pile on, and the fact that once I spelled out what I saw as the difference between scum defensiveness and townie defensiveness it changed.

If I have your reasoning right for why I am Scum it is because my defensiveness changed after you said I was being defensive? And that just because the wagon developed doesn't mean I am Town? I can still be reasonable sometimes just like I can be defensive sometimes. When I explained to alstro that defensiveness isn't a Scum tell for me, the reached the conclusion that it is person dependent whereas you still think me being defensive is a Scum tell. I'm just trying to tell you here that being defensive isn't AI for me. Make of that what you will but it's true.

My point was more that this was the reason I saw that people backed down from SRing you. My reasoning has been detailed elsewhere, and my point was that you haven't done much to assuage those suspicions. You are far from LS for me, but definitely on my radar.

Who do you think is partners with LQ?

Not sure lol. I really need to think through it all. GTMH, it's Alstro, but I honestly don't know, because they've been acting pretty Townie recently

Is anyone able to explain why they Tr Austro (blame phone) in less vague terms than this? As of yet I am unconvinced.

[Egix96]

Smh, 250 looks worse now that I've reviewed LQ's posts and seen that he actually had a town lean on Clasko in 127.

On the other hand, I do get mild town feels from 157/159, and as I mentioned earlier, I wouldn't want to jump to conclusions here if it just ends up all being for nothing.

[Egix96]

VOTE: MargotRosa

Margot's slot need a bit of pressure. She says "I am definitely liable to read into things a bit too much" in #148 when, actually, the inverse is happening since #140 and #305 are close to being mirror-images of each-other and I see little progression, combined with her enveloping herself almost solely in conversation with LQ makes me feel like she's trying to ride out the day, so I want to pressure this slot before she fades into obscurity given we're close to deadline and will have to come to a group consensus as to whom the elimination should be. It would be helpful if she answered my #332 for starters.

Do you just not TR her any more then? The closest indication I can see is you saying that she had "gone down in [your] reads slightly" in 267.

On a more serious note, I want to ask SM (but I also want everyone to chime in) if it's better to extinguish the seeds of doubt I had accidentally sewn in my #216 by making me the D1 elim today.
Given I'm even suggesting this, you can probably guess my alignment and role, but I think my elim has some advantages:

- The 'slip' is resolved, which may mar D2 discussion if unchecked.
- We don't accidentally 'out' the other PR by bringing them to e-1 and force them to claim, which feels especially important given Hockey has already outed

If I'm going against wincon with this suggestion, then I sincerely apologise and will accept all responsibility but I think it's more beneficial for the game to keep the other, less disposable PR, hidden as opposed to my slot that is just a big, fat question mark, and I wouldn't be suggesting this if not for the 'slip' and Hockey didn't out.

Let me know what you all think.

Imho, if anyone thinks that either you or Strange should be "resolved" because they "dun goofed" (as the memers these days might put it) then that's either a very narrow-minded worldview, or scum seeking an opportunity.

[Egix96]

While I was out of the house today, I had a random idea that I should take another look at Roden. Since there isn't much going on itt rn, I guess I may as well do that now.

My opinion on RQS doesn't seem popular, but I've been burned a few times by people who try to look helpful/busy by engaging in RQS but then turn out to be scum. It's easy town cred for too little effort IMO.

This is something that gave me town vibes early on, because it reminds me of how I used to feel when I was new to mafia games and I was getting fed up from losing my first few games.

UNVOTE:

The wagon on LQ built up a little too fast. I think it's weird that he's focused on me saying "honestly" once, and he's clearly panicking and scrambling to avoid getting elim'd. But this is feeling more like a townie flail than a scum flail. Like, less like his back is against the wall and more like he got ganged up on and he doesn't think it's fair. Plus, there's basically been zero resistance to this wagon. If LQ is scum, then his scum buddy would have to be bussing him extremely early into the game.

**If we can't find a better choice by EoD then I'll most likely put my vote back on him.**

But we've still got seven IRL days left until Day 1 ends, and I don't think voting someone out early is a good idea. We should get more info from more people so we can look for associatives when we get a flip.

The part I've emphasised here seems to go against what this whole post was leading up to. I'm just thinking, if you had a chance of voting him anyway, then why defend him?

First scum is almost guaranteed to be between LQ and Margot btw. It's pinging me as TvS pretty hard. Pretty sure we can turbo elim both if the first one flips green.

I'm giving this post the benefit of the doubt until both Quickety and Margot's alignments are known, but I think that whether or not this post turns out to be wrong or right will be a hint as to Roden's alignment.

If you're voting Clasko, it should be because he voted T3 when he isn't even a scum read.

Slight town vibes from this.

I'd probably still vote LQ first. The flail looked townie, but Margot hasn't really done anything to earn scum points from me. Unless she does some real scummy shit before EoD, I'm putting my vote back on LQ.

I disagree. Aorn I would almost always vote Margot before Quickety.

Why would I look bad if Clasko flips red? I don't think it was a slip, I genuinely just think you guys are interpreting his post poorly.

Slight T vibes from this too.

Strange saying "we cannot let slips just pass by" just feels like a shade attempt without having to commit to it. Which makes me they Strange + Clasko most likely isn't ever a pairing since Strange seems fine with suggesting Clasko is scum. If it was distancing I think it would be more overt.

This essentially takes something I had written a couple of posts above and expands on it. I'm not entirely sure it's AI but I still wanna make a note of it.

387 (Not quoting to save space) - Hrm, this has me doubting my "almost always" above, since Quickety siding with Strange's intentionally-bad push is another >__> moment for him.

[Egix96]

VOTE: MargotRosa

I think this helps us solve other slots more easily, while still having ~roughly the same chance to flip scum.

[Egix96]

Spoiler: offtopic

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=92Gq_mG-cQY

Smh, why did it take me so long to realise the name connection, I love Bad Apple...

[Egix96]

Because there's a triangle between you, Margot and Roden, whereas we don't really have that with Alstro.

[Egix96]

Post #427 I mean. I’m not quite understanding how you got here.

The post where I Iso'd Roden was meant to serve as an outline of that, but it's basically this:
Roden
Quick
Margot

This is a group who have all been pushing on each other to some extent. Here I've ordered them by how towny I think they are.
Heuristically, it's probable that there is at least one scum among them. (Otherwise, what the heck has even been going on)
Considering that I don't particularly think that Alstro is more or less likely to flip scum than Margot is, I think it's better to yeet within the triangle than outside it.

[Egix96]

I won't be able to sit down and form a comprehensive, updated read until I am back from visiting my grandparents today

Hope they're doing well.

Ah, thanks! My nan and grandpa are both needing a lot of help these days.

[Egix96]

What makes you think Margot is scummier?

Eh, it's more that I think she is less towny rather than more scummy, seeing as if I thought anyone were outright scummy I would be hounding them. LQ has 157/159 as I mentioned before, whereas Margot only has the "mixup" I mentioned in 111 (gee that feels like it was ages ago) and although I eased off because of Clasko having a TR on her, it seems that not even he believes in that any more. Also also a bit of "sort by postcount, become werewolf expert".

LQ has made really weird pushes all day while Margot just feels more subdued.

I would say that it's Margot who has been being weird whereas LQ has made opportunistic moves, but now that I've said that... well, that only makes me less right and you more right.

[Egix96]

Considering that I don't particularly think that Alstro is more or less likely to flip scum than Margot is, I think it's better to yeet within the triangle than outside it.

Keeping this in mind for later.

*Says "tchk-tchk" while making finger-guns*

But yeah, I'm aware of the dilemma: if LQ flips green, I'll feel like a numpty for not having done enough to prevent it, but if he flips red I know I'll look terrible.

[Egix96]

I actually don't particularly disagree with an Alstro vote. I think the final scum has to be someone who wasn't particularly active. The reason being that last night's failed NK only comes from someone who wasn't paying attention to the conversations everyone had, because targeting the Tracker should've been the obvious wrong answer.

VOTE: Alstro

Scum could also be willing to gamble on a 50-50 shot that we're in a setup with an FN given that they're in a tight spot. I am curious about Clasko though given that he was prodded and we haven't heard from him since, but since he hasn't been replaced he must have picked up the prod during the night. Either way, there are some circumstances where a player could find that targeting the tracker is the right answer. /shrug

The only circumstances where scum targets Tracker N1 are when scum don't realize we have a Doctor. And the only way scum doesn't realize that is if they weren't paying attention. This is why Strange is out of my PoE today despite me scum reading them yesterday.

Hmmmm ok I understand, and based on that I'm more comfy with my T3 vote atm

Huh? Wouldn't T3 also be cleared by that logic?

[Egix96]

Re:640, last paragraph
My counterpoint to 398 is that I actually advocated for my own yeet as scum in my first ever game, though admittedly it was more of a "this game is stressing me out too much and I don't want to play in it any more" than an actual strategic gambit.

[Egix96]

Will also help me pick a new target tonight if I'm wrong, otherwise I'm waiting for a replacement and targeting the same slot.

Yeet clasko slot, track alstro?
Or maybe track me if you wish.

[Egix96]

I really don't think that Margot is scum, given that Quick was.

[Egix96]

If T3 or Roden would openly post their shared understanding of what T3 was pulling, that could potentially clear everything up.

Once that's done, I'll probably just go ahead and vote since I don't foresee much else happening.
I'll try to give things a once-over in the meantime, since although I can say with some confidence which slots are likely town, I'm having trouble deciding which is the one that isn't.

[Egix96]

A bit short on time rn but I will say this:

The thing that gives me pause regarding Clasko is how LQ treated the slot. In retrospect, some of the scummiest posts LQ made (e.g. 69, 250) were regarding Clasko (the former of which especially doesn't feel SvS), and the sheer awkwardness of 276 gives me the impression that he was trying to get a cheap misyeet on Clasko but chickened out as soon as I commented on it.

Alstro does at times interact with LQ, but when they do it's mostly about things that matter less in the long run (see 131 -> 136 and 179 -> 182 for examples). The one thing that makes me a bit less sure is 315.

The multi-iso I've been running so far doesn't include T3 due to the limit of three, but from what I have been able to see, 172 -> 177 gives me some possible distancing vibes, and I've yet to fully verify the validity of Clasko's 306 but the final paragraph of it should give you an idea of what it could be.

[Egix96]

I'm not sure why you guys keep persisting to get T3 and me to explain what T3 is doing when I've stated multiple times now that it would out the Doc.

Yeah sry, forgot about that

VOTE: T3

[Egix96]

I'm not sure why you guys keep persisting to get T3 and me to explain what T3 is doing when I've stated multiple times now that it would out the Doc.

I'm not sure why you guys keep persisting to get T3 and me to explain what T3 is doing when I've stated multiple times now that it would out the Doc.

Ok this makes me think Roden is town and you can’t change my mind about this.

Agree that this makes Roden town but does not assuage my feelings about T3. (Also however not sure why this locks in a T3 vote if it wasn’t already @Egix?)

My T3 vote is due to quick interactions. I haven't yet reread everything but it's where I'm at atm

[Egix96]

I think my problem right now is that LQ has interactions involving several people in some way during this game, and I feel like going off interactions isn’t going to really be helpful, and is probably what scum wants if you ask me.

Hmmmm. I don't think I'll have another opportunity to re-read more of this game until deadline day anyway.

[Egix96]

2 IC's in elo

That doesn't seem right?
If we misyeet today:
Mo gets NKed, but Ythan and his track target survive: 2ICs at f6.
Misyeet again, Ythan dies to NK: 1 IC at f4.

[Egix96]

Hammer alstro plez

I'm waiting to see if Ythan shows up again.

[Egix96]

If I am limmed I'll reiterate that my PoE is {Egix, T3, Mo} but very much in that order (1, 2, 3). I do recognize that my flip will be helpful, which it better be because after that some scumhunting will be necessary without Ythan.

With less than 12 hours to go I'll shift back to VOTE: T3 but I'll be around this evening (EST) to help prevent a no elim somewhere else if necessary (feels more natural to say prevent instead of save if I'm not crumbing. . . . )

vote egix wit me

VOTE: Egix

i think 86.79% we win this game after this condemn

Not instantly, but I'm >90% sure that both Roden and Margot are town, and I'm about 80% sure Strange is too.
Alstro is doc unless anyone is going to make a plausible CC (you don't count, I only leant into it because I figured you might be VT trying to bait the kill)
So now it's either T3 or you left as scum.
Unless I've miscleared someone somewhere, we still win.

[Egix96]

From the day 1 hammer on LQ, Egix and Clasko's slot were on Margot. I think that it may be that one of them may have been trying to save the Mafia Rolecop. If scum were defending their partner with this by joining the Margot wagon then there's one scum in between Egix and Clasko.

So vote off Egix, but I'm not sure about Ythan's check on Clasko (GrandpaMo's slot) and vote on them. I mean doesn't it mean that since Clasko wasn't here there wasn't an action from them and confirms them?

Isn't a no-kill from scum a possibility?

[Egix96]

I think eliminating me over T3 was just a massive misplay by town.

I couldn't agree more. I still doubt that you guys would have got to Roden tho. GG.