Newbie 2076 [Game Over]

[T3]

VOTE: hockeyban

[T3]

What on earth? T3 with an AVATAR?

*weeb noises*

[T3]

VOTE: hockeyban

dammit, u rolled scum again didnt u

What on earth? T3 with an AVATAR?

ikr, crazy, worlds ending

VOTE: hockeyman

[T3]

BTW if there is a tracker you should claim now.

[T3]

Why?

If there's no Tracker then we play normally. If there is a Tracker then if there's a Jailkweper they should Jail the Tracker. If there's a FN they should target the Tracker. If there's a Doctor they should protect the Tracker.
Once day 2 hapens we massclaim.
If Doctor/FN is run up to E-1 then just claim 'PR'.

[T3]

Mafias don't know if there's a FN or a Doctor.

[T3]

Mafia not killing anyone is worse than them killing a VT. It's not logical for them to take that risk.

[T3]

Mafia not killing anyone is worse than them killing a VT. It's not logical for them to take that risk.

Are you suggesting that Scum will not used their NK if we do this strategy?

No. I'm saying that scum going for Tracker in a 50/50 nk/kill tracker isn't worth it if it fails.

[T3]

Ah ok I see. Even if it's the case they don't go for the tracker, what's the pro of the tracker claiming day 1 rather than day 2?

Tracker might die, and we also have a conftown.

[T3]

Mafia not killing anyone is worse than them killing a VT. It's not logical for them to take that risk.

Are you suggesting that Scum will not used their NK if we do this strategy?

No. I'm saying that scum going for Tracker in a 50/50 nk/kill tracker isn't worth it if it fails.

VOTE: T3

Switching vote to T3 for what is either some wild scummy behaviour, or a galaxy brain townie that will lead us astray anyway.

If we reveal who tracker is, scum knows who tracker is. They also know that, whatever the setup, there is one town PR left, and if they manage to snipe them, they can take out the tracker, who they 100% already know. Town is automatically far more likely to lose both power roles, if chance alone is factored in.

If we don't reveal tracker, the likelihood that town randomly loses both PRs by d3 is 2/7 * 1/6 = ~4.8% chance. This is not even taking into account whether we have a doctor, and if we do, that chance is lessened even more.

On the other hand, if we do reveal tracker, the chance that we lose both PRs by d3 is the chance of randomly picking the doctor out of the remaining 6 townies, allowing them to kill the tracker n2, giving 1/6 = ~17% chance. Here, there is no real doctor to lessen the chance further, as doc needs to protect tracker on the off chance scum play a wild card and kill tracker as a fake (risk of this happening is higher than the probability of randomly picking the 1/6 townie that scum will also target).

That is how much we screw ourselves by revealing a role. <4.8% chance of randomly losing both PRs goes up to ~17% chance.

As T3 is a seasoned forum player, I'd expect them to know this, or have at least observed it. Absolutely scum read on T3.

I do know this, but having 2 IC's on Day 2 is

very

good. If just one of the players in the non-PRs is obvious town then we have a PoE of 4 people.

[T3]

T3, 1 question for you. Even if your crackpot theory DOES work, why force claim tracker to claim d1 f1. While I still hate the idea of a PR claiming d1, im more on the side of the tracker claiming late d1, after we've had good discusscion. If your answer is "tracker might get pushed", who cares? By that time, we will hopefully have 2-3 susses and we can just pivot to the 2nd one

That's a good idea.

[T3]

I think you'll just see as the game goes on. I'm sensing a spicy T3 play and scum might not be happy starting Day 2.

Okay you saying this implies that you

want

tracker to claim d1 f1? If thats true, what do u think the benefit actually is in claiming tracker d1 f1?

I can't answer this unfortunately.

Yep Roden is locktown.
SOUL MASONS

[T3]

Locktown: Roden, Hockey
IDK what to make of Margot and Astra

[T3]

VOTE: lq

[T3]

Rolecop can't block the tracker.

[T3]

I think this is a townslip

[T3]

Okey dokey, here is where I am at.

I am getting strong town sense from Margot, contrary to what some others have said. It seems like she is really trying to sort -- some internal back and forth is good. I really liked 53 although I didn't check the math. It reads to me like a newbie who is really determined to put in the work.

Hockey is a town lean for me, though I disagree with the argument in 94 that withholding information is

always

anti-town. If someone is trying to bait a trap or is an investigation role who doesn't want to share results until they have a guilty, etc, there are some cases where that's good to hold back. If T3 was trying to do a spicy town play, which is totally T3, then not spelling out the details is beneficial. But the way that he's making his argument reads town, even if I disagree with it. Although I just realized it could be scum trying to get info on what the play is. Still not enough to change my read though.

T3 is probably town for the exact reason that Hockey outlined -- it's a huge gambit for scum to do right out the gate, so it seems unlikely.

Roden is null. 77 struck me as weird as well, but I don't see why scum would town lock T3 after that risky play. Then again, he then went on to walk back that town lock in 91.

Clasko and Egix are null.

The Astra slot is a sliiiiight scum lean because even with so few posts and the swift replace out, it seemed like she might have been jumping on the LQ wagon, and her RVS vote was also a wagon.

LQ -- I get a bad sense from 125. It reads a bit like complaining about getting scumread with a liiitle smidgeon of omgus, especially considering they imply that T3's gambit isn't scummy in 57 before bringing in a little more setup speculation.

The main thing that gives me pause is the very fact that LQ is a wagon already. It could be a quick and easy miselim. I also have no interest in pushing anyone to E-1 right now, so I'll leave my vote on the Astra slot for now to put a little extra fire on whoever joins in.

Roden knows exactly what is going on and he is locktown for that.

[T3]

*groans*

[T3]

Honestly I just get bad vibes from LQ.
PROTECTIVE SHOULD ALWAYS BE ON TH TRACKER

[T3]

Oh I forgot egix was in this game.

[T3]

Hey Hockey you should trust me when I say rodentown.

[T3]

Hey Hockey you should trust me when I say rodentown.

and thats why? i stg if u say "mEtA", I am going to be sad

He knows exactly what is going on.

[T3]

dunno tbh
I was townreading hockey before it was cool to do so

[T3]

VOTE: T3

For being so low energy. Can't talk about this read much, but I do think T3 doesn't have much vigor this game. He also isn't explaining himself very well. Both things point to him being red.

But since Hockey has played with T3 before I want them to answer if T3 was this low energy in the game they played together. Will check for myself.

I'm very low energy because this is a stagnant newbie.

[T3]

I'm pretty low key this game because it's my first town newbie game in almost two months and I just had to use scum tactics as town in a themed game. I'm just kinda drained and taking it easy right now since I'm pretty sure town wins this game if the set up is what I think it is.

whoa what newbie 2065 was 2 months ago?

[T3]

Oh I joined 6 months ago
oh

[T3]

Actually, LQ's post on me can't be faked.

[T3]

Uhh... I'll join in with LQ here for the time being even though a green flip doesn't say much at this moment in time:

VOTE: T3

VOTE: clasko
methinks this is perspective slip

[T3]

Clasko said 'a green flip'
Clasko is scum knowing I will flip green

[T3]

Clasko said 'a green flip'
Clasko is scum knowing I will flip green

Imagine if scum were that incompetent that they would just blurt that out loud

@Hockey: the gamestate has barely progressed since I made that post, so I don't think there would be much point in me doing that yet.

I recently played a game where a 2013 joindate casually told the thread exactly what happened in the scum pt and no one batted an eye except me, their scumpartner.pedt:
The meta one.

[T3]

Everyone was doing nka spec and they say:

"yeah, the deepwolf suggested [we kill Bell]"

[T3]

Point is, anyone can perapective slip.

[T3]

This actually isn't a wild play, and it has town motivation.

[T3]

Actually, I noted something from one of Roden’s scum games, specifically involving past experiences with their scum game with me and Roden’s scum game with them, something really sticks out. So one thing I noticed is that Roden and T3 were townreading each other early, which he in my scum game actually said he would TR my slot when we were both scum. To me there’s also the fact that from what I parsed as pushing pressure off their teammate as well.

This is just meta, so take it with a grain of salt, but I think it should be pointed out.

So I think this is effort town.

[T3]

Roden is 100% town. Please shep me on this.

[T3]

Locktown: Hockey, Strange, Roden
Town: LQ
POE: Everyone else

[T3]

Roden kmew exactly what I was doing and I think scum Roden would have questioned it more.

[T3]

Town Clasko in 2071 quoted other players and usually quotewalled.

[T3]

I don't know what to do rn
My reads are the same.

[T3]

VOTE: alstromerial

[T3]

alstro is PoE.

[T3]

Newbie games burn the soul.

[T3]

alstro is PoE.

What happened to Clasko?

He posted.

[T3]

alstro is PoE.

What happened to Clasko?

He posted.

Wut? Scum post too... Like wth, man. What's with all this super weak reasoning?

Yes but
good vibes posts

[T3]

I don't know what to do rn
My reads are the same.

Theres a thing called pushing people, smh T3.

alstro is PoE.

What happened to Clasko?

He posted.

Wut? Scum post too... Like wth, man. What's with all this super weak reasoning?

Yes but
good vibes posts

Are you every going to explain anything this game?

Its t3, he never explains anything

Also; this whole Roden/Strange interaction is so odd that I WANT to say its w/w but its probably t/w

I don't like surface to surface contect, especially pushing.

[T3]

I might catch covid you see.

[T3]

Any games not in new york/coney island I just never have enough motivation.

[T3]

I tr Roden because he immediately knew what I was trying to do, which usually wouldn't come from scum.I think scum wouldn't have brought it up.

[T3]

Any games not in new york/coney island I just never have enough motivation.

Then why do you play those games?

They look interesting but I get bored really fast because no one's doing anything AI.

[T3]

On another note, this sort of weird posting type of thing is more what I expect of T3. IDK if I'm moving them to TL yet or not, but I will see if it continues. And after saying it out in the open, it probably diminishes the effect. Sorta just want T3 to actually talk about his reasons at this point. T3 is getting dry minus the last few posts and it's not what I expect of his Town game.

P-Edit: And what exactly were you trying to do T3?

I think I worded that badly. Roden knew where I got the idea for the massclaim from.

[T3]

On another note, this sort of weird posting type of thing is more what I expect of T3. IDK if I'm moving them to TL yet or not, but I will see if it continues. And after saying it out in the open, it probably diminishes the effect. Sorta just want T3 to actually talk about his reasons at this point. T3 is getting dry minus the last few posts and it's not what I expect of his Town game.

P-Edit: And what exactly were you trying to do T3?

I think I worded that badly. Roden knew where I got the idea for the massclaim from.

Which was from where?

Not allowed to say.

[T3]

Ah who am I kidding, I've been putting up a charade and pushing Roden with a not so great argument to get a discussion going, and see who would be adamantly against a possible wagon on Roden. In particular I was looking for T3's reaction since he well, TR Roden so I wanted to see how he'd have reacted to it. And that part is frustrating to me because he completely ignored it and did his own thing instead, which didn't help at all. Not to mention that there are three votes on me, and it doesn't seem like anyone questions that.

And if you wanted my reasoning for voting Roden, I've already outlined it but in #79 Roden talks about not sharing information, then continuously talks about hiding info in #83, and #91. The main idea was that it was just repetition that would've been said it is odd to just keep repeating this as Town.

I wouldn't blame anyone if they vote me because of this, but I wanted to make this clear, I feel like Town isn't making anything and is just reacting, and that bothers me because the game probably won't progress if this just keeps up.

This

only

comes from town, mark my words.

[T3]

Newer scum won't assume town is lying like strange did.

[T3]

I wouldn't hard accuse anyone for it, the tbh tell was me commenting on Egix bringing it up and backing it up with my own belief in it. It's nothing I'd bother trying to use on Day 1 though, I think it's reasonable that people use it naturally in their speech patterns. It's just when you have people using it sparingly or never in their confirmed town games and then blatantly overusing it in games they're suspicious in, then I think it has merit.

My opinion on RQS doesn't seem popular, but I've been burned a few times by people who try to look helpful/busy by engaging in RQS but then turn out to be scum. It's easy town cred for too little effort IMO.

Then doubts the "tbh" tell and doubles down on the RQS? I said in 154 that defensiveness and honesty tells were bad, but to keep on the RQS thing was really bad.

T3 how sure are you that Roden is Town here? I expect a straight up answer here.

ehhh
A lot >rand

Newbscum wouldn't think of pushing someone to get pressure. In their eyes everyoneelse is being truthful so they have to try and behave the same.

[T3]

What is your PoE at this point T3?

margot
clasko
alstro
Egix

[T3]

Sorry Hockey, I forgot to answer your "Why? We only have four days left", and VCA is a thing in later days, like, the more votes we see D1 the more we can analyse later for connections (who jumped on/off, and why), and the people saying who they thought were the potential sus without votes felt non-commital. The game has picked up in this regard from when I made that comment.

There's no real scum motivation for this post, and while it is pointing out the obvious it is protown.

[T3]

aayyaayayaAhAAAUGHHHHHHGHG
I can't tell if this gameis dead

[T3]

VOTE: al strom erial

[T3]

Egix has like vaguely town sounding posts.

[T3]

ehgggghghh

this is me moaning about ded game in text

[T3]

YES HALLELUJAH SOMEONE WHO WIL MAKE THIS GAME UNDED
but that would be a zombie
i don't want to die
let's kep this dead maybe?

[T3]

I'm not a Tracker, though

Don't post shit like this you're narrowing it down for scum.

You're outed tracker dude

[T3]

I do weirdpost though.
Unless it's a theme game
Then I giga tryhard, get 200 posts in a day, am run up to e1, then nightkilled after the wagon disappates.

the story of my life, in mafiascum~

[T3]

And after saying it out in the open, it probably diminishes the effect.

Like what are you thinking.

Kind of a mindmeld? [betwen ythan and lq]pedit: to your point about lq

[T3]

Meta is for nerds I prefer to learn through experience.

I forgot why I quoted this

[T3]

CRINGEEEEEEEEEEEE pages 19-23&
LQ is town though.

[T3]

Ythan stop

[T3]

LQ is probably town ftr
VOTE: lq

[T3]

WAIT IM AN AN IDIIT

[T3]

if you'are town I'm getting pressured for that tomorrow.
I'm on 3 hours sleep and it didn't occur to me.

[T3]

I have genuinely no idea. I thought deadline was approaching.

[T3]

okay wow
Hopefully he's VT or maf.
If LQ is something stupid like cop then this will be one of my top 3 mafia fals, along with the fake slip in NQN and the macho 2-shot cop.

[T3]

Strange scum?

[T3]

Oh and the time I faked a detective guilty on my scumpartner as traitor and then was killed.

[T3]

VOTE: alstro

[T3]

alstromerial, the defendant is here on one count of attempted murder and one count of belonging to a gang. If found guilty, they will face the death penalty under MafiaScum state law.

[T3]

Because he used ongoing game meta which usually comes from town.

[T3]

Because he used ongoing game meta which usually comes from town.

This seems weird. Why is ongoing site meta considered something that comes from Town T3?

It was a thought that seemed real.

[T3]

VOTE: clasko

[T3]

Roden knows, so does Strange partially.

[T3]

VOTE: alstro

[T3]

I hammered lq though.

[T3]

GM targets Ythan, Ythan tracks whoever, GM ded, 2 IC's in elo assuming we mislim.

[T3]

I forgot no one died.

[T3]

I hammered lq though.

We were so close to deadline with multiple people away from the game that LQ being the elim was the only realistic option besides a no elim, making a hammer more nai especially if you preface it with this is town

I would have ghosted the thread and hoped for a no lim.

[T3]

Hammer alstro plez

[T3]

That was actually a really good doctor rand

[T3]

No because ythan will out his track clear.

[T3]

VOTE: margot to the rosa

[T3]

why

[T3]

VOTE: strange
So margots pivot is towny

[T3]

What if roden is scum though

[T3]

So bored.....
VOTE: Roden

[T3]

This game has kind of stalled.

[T3]

VOTE: margot
Honestly I just want to lim margot or strange.

[T3]

poeeee

[T3]

ahhh
I keep forgetting about this game

[T3]

grandpa can you switch to margot

[T3]

or i can VOTE: strange

[T3]

So here’s one significant part of why I am convinced that Strange is the last scum, specifically the interactions between them and LQ on d1.

Rereading, their exchanges read so much like scum becoming increasingly frustrated by their partner and the overt scum tells he was giving off.

The dynamic that played out here, if it is between two Scum, is a pretty common pattern I’ve seen IRL. Obviously don’t have the experience of forum format to say whether or not it carries over, but I imagine it would to some extent.

The dynamic in question is when someone is when you have a scum pair, and one of the two is clearly giving off massive scum tells. Even if it’s not necessarily crystal clear for town, it’s clear for the other scum, because they know to look for the tells in the first place.

Generally, when I’ve seen it, it plays out in two phases. At first, there is genuine attempts to subtly deflect away from the scumminess of their partner. It’s always fraught, because if you lean in too hard, you become an obvious target for elimination in later days, so it has to be subtle. Where it really starts to show itself is not even necessarily the person doing the deflection, but in the perceptible differences in the way that their partner interacts with them.

In a d1 that was notable for just how wildly defensive LQ was getting about even the slightest hint of a scum read on him, basically the only slot that did not almost immediately spur instant defensiveness was from Astra/Strange.

Here's some posts, with some brief notes. Hope you can piece together the narrative I'm presenting here. Feeling a bit under the weather, so best I can do under the circumstances. Far from exhaustive. Tried to leave out stuff that could count but may also be very dubious.

Examples of defensiveness in response to:
Roden – 36 38 39
T3 – 125 173
Alstro – 132 146
Me – 144 156 317
Me and T3 – 150
Defensiveness tell in general (which had not been brought up by Astra/Strange slot) – 154 182

LQ responding in a less heated way to Astra/Strange presenting guarded SRs of him:
59 60 68

Back and forth between Strange and LQ (one example of a few, not much evidence of this happening with LQ and other players):
285 292 298 328

Mopre exchanges oin which he and Strange are, on some level (intended or not) backing one another up:
253 284

Literally first time LQ says something that can be even construed as testy towards the Astra/Strange slot is 342 when he tells Strange never to vote for a slot just for info.

Incidentally, is 342 a smoking gun? Does NP stand for night play, and LQ thought he was messaging in scum chat?) Strange’s response 344 is maybe the most obviously irritated I’ve seen them in game (though entirely possibly because it was a brisque way to address them irrespective of whether they were doing it to divert attention from LQ.)

LQ does vote for Strange in 349, but I don’t buy it tbh. It’s a really half-hearted dig.

I know this is very based in emotiion, but that was literally how we tagged LQ in the first place. Makes sense that their interactions might also reveal who his team member was.

VOTE: strange
This post is very towny.

[T3]

or i can VOTE: strange

It's impossible to tell if you're a flip flopping scum or just committed to ending the game out of sheer boredom lol.

Sheer boredom.

[T3]

ded

[T3]

money

[T3]

oh come on
i think it's roden

[T3]

btw I got the idea for the claims from newbie 2075

[T3]

I softed doc?

[T3]

If I softed doc I genuinely don't remember
What how is that a doc soft

[T3]

okey
yes

[T3]

I thought you were like "hmmmmmm yes where did t3 get this strat and he won't say why
*looks at ongoing game'*
ok must be town"
VOTE: margot

[T3]

50/50 tracker dies there
anyways i would once again like to point out that i hammered lq

[T3]

margot has such extreme conviction bc sheknows if she lims me she wins

[T3]

margot's plan:
scumread me
settle for a lim on a different player yesterday
go 'oh woe is me i was wrong now let's lim the real scum'

[T3]

POINT IS:
margot was setting up for autowin yesterday

[T3]

t3 uses the excuse that they hammered lq. they hammered lq when townreading lq.

@t3 why did u think it could be roden

honestly just paranoaia

[T3]

i've kinda been ignoring this game

[T3]

im probably can lim t3 here just because

no

[T3]

pls no f3 hell

[T3]

OhGodMyWIM

[T3]

Can I ask @T3, why were you so convinced initially that LQ was Town?

Also, can we all agree that the tracker reveal thing is utter rubbish haha

his thoughts felt genuine