Newbie 2076 [Game Over]

[MargotRosa]

Hi fellow townies(and T3), hope u have fun this game. Btw @Astra and @MargotRosa, what is your expericne playing mafia.

With that being said,

time to vote mafia

VOTE: T3

Hey there! Never played in forum format, but played a lot of quick chat room format a few years ago after playing a bit with my university drama society, because of course that was a hotbed of RP games

VOTE: Clasko

Piplup is GOAT.

Honestly, having hard opinions on a gen of Pokemon starters that aren't 1 or the most recent one in 2021 is pretty sus.

VOTE: Roden

[MargotRosa]

oh yeah and me and margotrosa know each other irl, but I don't believe we've ever played together before.

Have also committed IRL to not talking about the game outside of the forums, which is probably a rule, but also is just good etiquette

[MargotRosa]

VOTE: Margot

You're forgetting that the D/P remakes are coming out later this year. Also, "honestly" tell.

P.S. Hockey is town on vibes.

What do you have against honesty?

[MargotRosa]

If you're asking about the RQS scum tell sample size, you've been on this site long enough to know that one.

If it's the "tbh" tell I'm not sure how you expect me to source that unless you want me to comb through every newbie game and CTRL+F scum ISO's for "tbh" and "honestly". Which uh, I'm not gonna do. But I'm clearly not the only one who's heard of that tell anyway.

I use honestly and tbh a lot. Will try to keep that in mind lol.

And personality appreciate the RQS stuff. Light atmosphere to start the game, which I imagine will get quite testy

[MargotRosa]

Why?

If there's no Tracker then we play normally. If there is a Tracker then if there's a Jailkweper they should Jail the Tracker. If there's a FN they should target the Tracker. If there's a Doctor they should protect the Tracker.
Once day 2 hapens we massclaim.
If Doctor/FN is run up to E-1 then just claim 'PR'.

But we just make scum job easier. They only have to kill one special role, and know who the other is, and if wee have the relevant setup, they can do so without ever having to worry about whether doctor is going to protect their target.

This is bad logic

[MargotRosa]

Mafia not killing anyone is worse than them killing a VT. It's not logical for them to take that risk.

Are you suggesting that Scum will not used their NK if we do this strategy?

No. I'm saying that scum going for Tracker in a 50/50 nk/kill tracker isn't worth it if it fails.

VOTE: T3

Switching vote to T3 for what is either some wild scummy behaviour, or a galaxy brain townie that will lead us astray anyway.

If we reveal who tracker is, scum knows who tracker is. They also know that, whatever the setup, there is one town PR left, and if they manage to snipe them, they can take out the tracker, who they 100% already know. Town is automatically far more likely to lose both power roles, if chance alone is factored in.

If we don't reveal tracker, the likelihood that town randomly loses both PRs by d3 is 2/7 * 1/6 = ~4.8% chance. This is not even taking into account whether we have a doctor, and if we do, that chance is lessened even more.

On the other hand, if we do reveal tracker, the chance that we lose both PRs by d3 is the chance of randomly picking the doctor out of the remaining 6 townies, allowing them to kill the tracker n2, giving 1/6 = ~17% chance. Here, there is no real doctor to lessen the chance further, as doc needs to protect tracker on the off chance scum play a wild card and kill tracker as a fake (risk of this happening is higher than the probability of randomly picking the 1/6 townie that scum will also target).

That is how much we screw ourselves by revealing a role. <4.8% chance of randomly losing both PRs goes up to ~17% chance.

As T3 is a seasoned forum player, I'd expect them to know this, or have at least observed it. Absolutely scum read on T3.

[MargotRosa]

I mean... I'm not immediately sus of T3's suggestion tbh. I understand your POV, & granted it's a good tool to bring a conf-town into late game, but I like the idea of clearing one potential townie D1 to reduce our elimination pool.

Like, Tracker's kinda meh anyway, until there's only one Mafia left and then, at that point, Tracker can start conf-towning the people who didn't visit, kinda like a pseudo-cop, but it's contingent on correctly eliminating Mafia D1 to be fully effective.

It's not just about whether or not the tracker is a good role or not. It gives scum info about which of the three setups they're dealing with. Plus, if town is going to eliminate tracker, we can give them the opportunity to reveal their role before they go down. Hiding the info from scum is way more valuable than giving town the info when that info can be given to us before we eliminate them in the unlikely incidence that they do get voted as scum

I'm not saying T3 is definitely scum. But it seems like pretty scummy D1 behaviour from where I'm sitting.

[MargotRosa]

In terms of the tbh tell, the last time I tried to apply it, it led me astray because, as mentioned above, the person just talked (wrote?) like that. I've seen games where it is a notable difference in someone's style, but I suspect in newbie games it will generally be harder to apply.

I think its more valuable to see whether that statement where they said "tbh" comes from a scum motive then to scumhunt via a tell that probably doesnt even work

Also, I am in the camp that there is no need for a tracker to claim on page 3, or even Day 1 for that matter unless they get close to elimination. Still, this is the sort of gambit that I've discovered is well within T3's wheelhouse so I don't see it as particularly indicative.

Yeah look, if this is just a site meta thing that I don't know about, I'm happy to drop it. Still not pleased with the idea, and will stick to my guns in opposing the idea, but happy enough to go with it if the majority decide to go that route

[MargotRosa]

Sorry, I think I'm just not being clear about this. The tbh tell really only applies way later in the game and if the person is basically spamming it when normally they wouldn't. Think of it as a written tic, the overstated word could be anything but "tbh" is one of the more common ones. If you already use it naturally in your speech patterns then it doesn't mean anything at all, so it wouldn't apply to you.

I was referring to the plan to out TR early d1. The honestly and tbh stuff I'm not going to drop. That's just being a young aussie woman who's online too much lol

I'm hiding info from scum actually.

Thoughts on the game so far is that it's going pretty slow and we don't have a town leader pushing the game forward. T3's probably giving us the most content to work with.

Not a massive fan of this either. Like, is the plan to slip up newbies based on some site meta stuff?

I have a few sus reads, and I'm still not convinced that T3 isn't behaving in a scummy way. Outing TR d1 is a weird hill to die on

[MargotRosa]

I'm hiding info from scum actually.

You literally can't be because otherwise you are a PR and not hiding anything with a comment like this. Else it's just unnecessary WIFOM.

Agree this is all very odd. That said, so long as the parties involved agree to share what this strategy is after the game ends, I'm happy enough to just let it slide for now

[MargotRosa]

I think you'll just see as the game goes on. I'm sensing a spicy T3 play and scum might not be happy starting Day 2.

Okay you saying this implies that you

want

tracker to claim d1 f1? If thats true, what do u think the benefit actually is in claiming tracker d1 f1?

I can't answer this unfortunately.

Yep Roden is locktown.
SOUL MASONS

bruh

Why do u TR people that hold info, still dont get it

[MargotRosa]

I think Roden and T3 could easily be playing mindgames here. Idk. Could go either way.

[MargotRosa]

Lol actually part of my suspicion was that you

weren't

voting her

Just noticed this. The bloody humanity of it all.

UNVOTE: T3 for now. Still unsure, but I think Roden would have to be in a pair with them for it to make sense at this point, and coming out as a strong pair early d1 would be a wild play

[MargotRosa]

Haaaaang on. It's just occurred to me that if we are dealing with an Mafia rolecop, and we have a tracker, outing tracker d1 will totally negate that role, as mafia rolecop can just block them for the rest of the game??

[MargotRosa]

I'm back on T3 lol

VOTE: T3

[MargotRosa]

At least wait till D2 so we can get the first tell. Risk isn't worth it

[MargotRosa]

I mean roleblocker

[MargotRosa]

It's not a slip. I'm trying to imagine what you'd do if you were mafia

[MargotRosa]

Margot - Has trended downwards since the beginning, mainly because, since stating that she had an "Absolutely scum read on T3" in 53 (if you'll pardon the grammar mistake), she has kept walking it back (56 "I'm not saying T3 is definitely scum.", 88, 96). Her recent mixup is a counterpoint, but it feels like as soon as Clasko posted 55, she realised that her T3 push would not be as viable as she thought.

Grammar excused lol. And what you're watching is someone trying to grapple with whether or not something being presented as site meta, but initially flagged in her mind as scum behaviour, was actually scummy or not.

[MargotRosa]

Ok, my current reads list. Apologies for text wall

Lean Town:

Currently, I think both T3 and Roden lean town. The more I read through the logs, the more I second guessed my initial scum read. The three minutes between T3's first posts, and the post to out tracker #22 definitely tripped my senses a lot, as it felt like brief time spent hatching a scheme, but that could just as easily come to what Roden is talking about, which I think I may have actually worked out. Roden feels like more of a wildcard than T3 at this point, but nothing that really makes me go one way or the other. Glad that I stuck to it a bit longer than warranted though, because it's definitely given good info.

Hockey: Hard to say, but slight town lean. Points all make sense, but also could point to a long con (see, for instance, lots of early, aimless banter [#7, #8, #13, #14, #16, #18], and later planting the idea that scum lay low early game [#62, #122], which could easily be a very base ploy to take heat off).

Null

Egix: Has laid low most of the game. [post=#p12939319]111[/post] makes me want to give him benefit of the doubt.

Astra is totally null for me atm. I think the fact she had to drop out early means posts will be hard to interpret. Nothing to go on, and I'll treat as a fresh slate when slot is refilled.

Lean scum

Clasko: Had very minimal engagement early on. Dropped in at #50 through #52 to post 3 nothing comments, with a followup meh reflection on RQS at 54. Seemed pretty cool with T3’s tracker idea at #55, but then seemed open to a d1 elimination for T3 in #118. Has a scum read on Hockey, which is interesting #115. Reasoning seems pretty flaky, when there are much better reasons to scum read him imo. Highest conf is on LQ, purely for the ordering of his slots, which blows my mind.

LQ: Way more interesting than Hockey's immediate question at T3 for the tracker play [post=#p12936791]#23[/post] which wasn't even really a callout, just a one word question that was left for several posts and almost five hours, was LQ resurrecting by restating the question [post=#p12937132]#32[/post]. Takes the heat off of you by shifting it onto someone who can be named as the instigator. Extra odd given that LQ later said that they knew tracker reveal was site meta, leading one to think that they would know exactly why T3 wanted to reveal tracker (see #80, #132). On top of that, they have been incredibly defensive throughout d1 (wanted Roden to go through past game logs to see their history of RQS v RVS in #38 and #39, defensive at Astra's veeeery loose scum read #68, defensive about T3 and Roden explanations as to why they voted #125). Attack on Roden for not sharing info, looks extra weird in this context (see #87), as I think it makes perfect sense as to why Roden wouldn't want to share info.

Alstro had minimal engagement early on. Only non-obvious read in #130 is a strong town read on me, and that could very easily be getting onside a slot who is making hard claims early in the game. Also, reading everyone as null or above other than two players already pointed out as behaving in an obviously odd way (Astra and LQ) feels like a safe play, especially when Astra is being subbed out and therefore justifying an opinion change later on. I have also been reading into the read lists a bit too much probably, but they line up for Alstro and LQ to be scum team (Alstro mentions a very loose scum read on LQ that's easy to walk back, but useful to make them seem like town if LQ gets smoked).

[MargotRosa]

VOTE: LQ

[MargotRosa]

UNVOTE:

VOTE: LQ e-1

[MargotRosa]

Really need to work out how to use the post tag lol

[MargotRosa]

Hi, Margot. Can I ask why defensiveness is a Scum tell? I've been accused of being defensive many many times as Town so that is not a good reason to SR me (or anyone for that matter as that tell has been demolished long ago).

It's not a sure thing. But experience (admittedly, in chat room and IRL formats) has shown me that there are different kinds of reactions to being read as scum. Often (not always) when townies get read as scum, their reaction is usually not pointing out why the read is baseless (if it is baseless, that will come out anyway, and isn't a read to worry about). Scum will usually (but again, not always) treat it as if it's a personal attack, and get annoyed that people are pointing the finger at them for no reason. When Town behaves like the latter, it's often because the read actually has some merit, and they need to explain why whatever it is that made them look scummy occurred.

It's not hard and fast rule, which is why you aren't SL for me right now, and why I edited my vote to e-1 to make sure you couldn't be hammered by people trying to hammer (I think now that Astra has left, it'll need three more while my e-1 sticks).

Next I would say that while I do remember something about claiming roles it's been a year + since I have played and when I played the Newbie setup had recently been changed IIRC. So while I did remember there was some sort of claiming involved for a particular setup, I was not sure it was Tracker or how the ins and outs of that work (which is why I asked.)

That's fair enough.

Also, I am assuming you are saying it is Scummy for me to bring this up 5 hours later for some reason. Can I ask why that is? IIRC, the question had not been answered yet.

It was more a personal reflection on the post. Cards on the table, I am about to go into eighth week of hard CoViD lockdown in Sydney atm, and have some pretty hardcore insomnia, so I am definitely liable to read into things a bit too much. But I thought it was at least as interesting, if not more so, than Hockey's original question, because it resurrected the question when it had gone dormant in a way that had plausible deniability.

As far as your read with T3 and Roden are concerned, IDK why you are TRing them for basically going along with site meta? IDK why Roden is doing, but I get the sense that you may be trusting that analysis of the Tracker claim thing is an indication that they are Town and I don't particularly think bringing up site meta is terribly AI.

I agree that following a meta isn't reason enough to TR anyone. I'm TRing them because of the way they handled my initial SR of T3, which reads to me as Town. That's gut instinct as much as anything else, which is why I'm not locking anything, and said that Roden especially was a weak TR.

I don't understand your Hockey read at all. You say you have them as Town Lean, but the reasons for that seem extremely lacking and actually point to the opposite conclusion IMO.

My read on Hockey comes with caveats for sure, that are very contingency based (like the long con I mentioned). I think their posts read very town otherwise, particularly the keen questioning, but willingness to adapt and change based on evidence that's brought up. Again, not a lock, just a slight lean.

Your reasons for SRing Clasko are not bad, but like, this is what I already explained about reading that player. They seem to be using logic in some parts and being counterintuitive in other parts. This is not inherently Scummy as some people are this way naturally. That is why I Null read them that way - because it may take time to develop a concrete read on a player like that.

These are fair comments. I just think the contradiction between 55 and 118, what I consider to be a pretty flaky read of Hockey in 115, minimal engagement at game start (see 50, 51, 52 and 54), along with giving you highest conf based on how you ordered slots felt like it leaned scum.

I hope you don't consider this post "defensive" because I have tried to be reasonable here.

It's all good. I'm not trying to attack you as a person or anything. Game is fun thus far. I'm just putting my reads out there.

Also 145 <3

[MargotRosa]

licketys at E-1 lol wtf? I think from Lickety's reactions to being put at e-1 is town+. They arent panicking like scum would nor are they doing damage control(ie giving some last min scumreads to distance from thier maf partner)

Totally misunderstood what e-X rules were. Thought it meant that your vote would only count up to n-1 votes, which meant people couldn't hammer off your vote. I believe the only votes for LQ are Roden, T3 and myself, so I'll correct

VOTE: LQ e-2

[MargotRosa]

Actually, I am at E-1 at this point...

Margot, are you looking for a quick lynch or what?

I thought Astra's vote was scrubbed when they dropped out. If that's note the case, then

UNVOTE:

I try and read every interaction from both perspectives.

Wrt T3 scum read, I expressed some uncertainty as early as 81. Revoted T3 105 but that was equal parts feeling like I wanted to push it a bit more due to uncertainty and part wanting to keep the conversation going to get some reads.

[MargotRosa]

Currently, I think both T3 and Roden lean town. The more I read through the logs, the more I second guessed my initial scum read.

This is another thing I don't get. Were you initially saying you thought T3 and Roden were SvS? If that's the case and you went from SvS reading them to TvT reading them, then I'm not quite sure how this figure that these two players (being Town) means I am Scum. I get that these two players are both SRing me, but I'm not sure how you get from, "T3 and Roden are Town," to saying, "Therefore, LQ is Scum."

It wasn't a "T3 is Town and Roden is Town therefore LQ is scum", those things all happened over a period of time and were unrelated.

I decided to shut up a bit midway through the conversation until I got more info, and then put forward the reads I'd collected in that time in one go

[MargotRosa]

The site meta (which you should know by now) is that when someone gets to E-1, then either someone claims "intent to hammer" and then the person claims, OR if it is too early in the day or something, then you would unvote them so a quick Elim doesn't happen.

What doesn't makes sense is either Margot knew I was at E-1 when they voted me and wanted to unvote me, or they thought that they had to announce I was E-1 with their vote, which still means they knew they were putting me at E-1 with their vote. It gets a little confusing since Margot also voted me as an E-2 vote, which doesn't make any sense to me at all. I mean, I can see a world where Margot thought they had to announce me at E-1, but what I DON'T get is why they thought they had to announce I was at E-2. That doesn't make a lick of sense given what I said above.

Ok, so I'll go post by post to make it clear what happened.

VOTE: LQ

This is the first vote I cast for LQ. I just chucked the vote on. I thought, at this point, that Astra's vote did not count, but hadn't counted how many votes had gone down. This is why I made the following post, which makes no sense as the very next post unless I was being an idiot who had no clue what she was doing:

UNVOTE:

VOTE: LQ e-1

I unvoted LQ, and

in the same post

voted LQ again, with the e-1 tag. This should make zero sense to anyone, given the rules and given the fact that I thought LQ was at e-2 after my vote.

What makes it make sense is the fact that I misread the rules (again, 4 hours sleep average for the last week lol) and thought that adding e-1 to a vote meant that the vote couldn't be used to hammer, but rather meant that, if someone tried to hammer your vote, the vote would no longer count. (ie. it only counts up until # votes <= e - 1).

When I realised what had happened, I changed the vote a second time:

licketys at E-1 lol wtf? I think from Lickety's reactions to being put at e-1 is town+. They arent panicking like scum would nor are they doing damage control(ie giving some last min scumreads to distance from thier maf partner)

Totally misunderstood what e-X rules were. Thought it meant that your vote would only count up to n-1 votes, which meant people couldn't hammer off your vote. I believe the only votes for LQ are Roden, T3 and myself, so I'll correct

VOTE: LQ e-2

Worth pointing out that, in these three posts, I have not actually changed anything. Every single one was just a vote for LQ. I thought that the e-X was a modifier on what the vote meant, and how high the vote could be counted (which I'd realised by the third, which is why I clarified that it was e-2.)

Once I realised what had happened, and realised that Astra's vote for LQ still counted, I unvoted.

UNVOTE:

I know it all seems daft, and it is incredibly daft. I apologise and won't make the mistake again.

[MargotRosa]

And now I've screwed the formatting of the last post. Fml

[MargotRosa]

Sorry I've been out of it for a while. Catching up now.

[MargotRosa]

Locktown: Hockey, Strange, Roden
Town: LQ
POE: Everyone else

Agree with this partly.

Strange seems to be acting townie, and I had a slight suspicion that Astra would not have pulled out if she had rolled Scum (which is very metagamey, which is why I didn't bring it up earlier).

Roden is still a strong Town lean for me, but I don't think I'd lock town yet.

I don't know that LQ has done much to assuage my earlier suspicions. I feel like people backed down from the scum read mainly on the basis of it being a bit of a pile on, and the fact that once I spelled out what I saw as the difference between scum defensiveness and townie defensiveness it changed.

The team I can most easily imagine in my head (which is admittedly pretty wonky at present) still remains Alstro and LQ, but that's a long shot, and doesn't really mean much day 1. Plus, Alstro has been acting far more Townie than previously.

Clasko's an interesting one, though I don't see the slip as an actual slip. Just seems like unfortunate phrasing.

Still think clearest bet for me right now remains LQ.

[MargotRosa]

I don't know that LQ has done much to assuage my earlier suspicions. I feel like people backed down from the scum read mainly on the basis of it being a bit of a pile on, and the fact that once I spelled out what I saw as the difference between scum defensiveness and townie defensiveness it changed.

If I have your reasoning right for why I am Scum it is because my defensiveness changed after you said I was being defensive? And that just because the wagon developed doesn't mean I am Town? I can still be reasonable sometimes just like I can be defensive sometimes. When I explained to alstro that defensiveness isn't a Scum tell for me, the reached the conclusion that it is person dependent whereas you still think me being defensive is a Scum tell. I'm just trying to tell you here that being defensive isn't AI for me. Make of that what you will but it's true.

My point was more that this was the reason I saw that people backed down from SRing you. My reasoning has been detailed elsewhere, and my point was that you haven't done much to assuage those suspicions. You are far from LS for me, but definitely on my radar.

Who do you think is partners with LQ?

Not sure lol. I really need to think through it all. GTMH, it's Alstro, but I honestly don't know, because they've been acting pretty Townie recently

[MargotRosa]

Honestly, I'm exhausted by d1. My reads remain roughly unchanged by the last few days' worth of posts. I still think Alstro and LQ are the most likely pairing, but the link is tenuous. I think T3 could very easily be town, but could also be scum gaming around the fact that d1 convo has gone nowhere, and pointing that out to generate some warranted town frustration. I don't think we are getting anywhere without a flip, and I think the best candidate for that flip is LQ.

VOTE: LQ

[MargotRosa]

Well, glad I ended up trusting instincts on that one.

VOTE: alstro and it's gg

[MargotRosa]

Been saying since mid D1 that the team that made most sense to me was Alstro and LQ. Alstro's reads always seemed hedgey, and they basically never addressed LQ whatsoever except to say they thought they *may* have been behaving scummy during the tunnel

[MargotRosa]

Any input on my track is fine. It's not as if they can do anything but sweat.

I'm happy to go with you, give tracker full lead on who gets eliminated.

I'd be ok with either Clasko or Alstro, but I'd say track which ever of the two don't get yeeted tonight and we'll go from there

[MargotRosa]

Yeah, the last few pages of posts have just convinced me further that it's Alstro lol

[MargotRosa]

It is, but I'm sure pretty certain that scum killed last night since if they no killed they just give town more chances since there's two PRs, one mafia, and 5 VTs. Killing would be in my opinion probably one of the worst decisions to make as scum since now there's 3 chances to catch scum since it is a 1v7, then a 1v5, then a 1v3, and then we lose.

None of this matters if scum didn't even log in.

Oh wait, what are the chances this happened lol?

[MargotRosa]

And sure, I honestly feel like whatever happens, we got this

VOTE: Egix

[MargotRosa]

Just realised that was E+1. Absolute pile on. I guess track T3 tonight?

[MargotRosa]

Yeah, let the tracker reveal their reads before we vote

[MargotRosa]

This whole affair has definitely given me pause w.r.t. T3 and Roden tho, as I pivoted off you both assuming that at least one of you was Doc

[MargotRosa]

VOTE: margot to the rosa

Honestly, given that I was the instigator of the final push to vote out LQ d1, you going straight to voting for me only increases my suspicions of you lol

Given that it's between T3, Roden, and Strange, that T3 was the last to vote for LQ, that T3's towniness has been mostly contingent on people's now disproven assumptions over who was Doctor, and that it would be very funny to me personally if both of my main scumreads on d1 were bang on:

VOTE: T3

[MargotRosa]

Ok, actually no, I've gone back through the ISOs for d1, and it has to be strange. T3 is a distant second, and Roden is lock town for me. For whatever reason, I thought I remembered T3 being kinder to LQ and insisting they were town (which did happen, but way less than I thought).

Strange, however, barely interacted with LQ at all except briefly, and when they did vote for LQ 583 it was guarded, and made a very big point of hedging and giving LQ a way to actually argue their way out of it (which they didn't do, and got zucced as a result)

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Strange

[MargotRosa]

ok also im the actual tracker. thanks for saving my slot ythan. you played a very good roleswap. shows over lets to get the actual biz.

im the actual tracker.

strangematter actually visited the dead person today > that makes them scum ggs.

Utter malarky

[MargotRosa]

I didn't mean it was a lie. I just mean the game just hit the fan lol

[MargotRosa]

I find Margot's pivot to be a little off since they're voting me, gives a case, and then doesn't do anything else. So @MargotRosa is that just because you're certain I'm scum? And what will happen if I don't flip red?

I imagine you would find my case to be a little off.

I spelled it out in my last post: If it was between you, T3, and Roden, you are definitely the scummeist of the three. Out of the three of you, Roden is locktown, and T3's play has been wild, but upon rereading through the ISOs, make sense more as Town than Scum.

That is not the case for you. Therefore I am voting for you.

[MargotRosa]

What if roden is scum though

What if roden is scum though

smh i called roden scum but no one listend and just said they were town with the interactions before hand.

Why do I keep having to restate that it literally can't be me? T3 dies N1 if it's me because I thought he was Doc. This is also why I don't think it's Strange because he kills either T3 or me N1, since he prodded the both of us the most into trying to make us explain what we were doing and assumed we were softing a Doc claim. And I don't think it makes sense for T3 to be scum because of the case I presented earlier.

Day 2 after Alstro claimed my PoE was Egix/Grandpa, but with Egix's green flip and Grandpa cleared by the Tracker, it only leaves Margot for me since I don't think Strange or T3 targets the Tracker slot N1. T3 possibly could have just no killed I guess, but I never no kill N1 and neither does Strange since we both saw Doc softs.

Ok, so, most of our logic here lines up, except obviously for you thinking I must be scum, and me thinking it must be Strange. Either way, those are the two options. If you decide to kill me today, kill Strange tomorrow and we 90% win anyway (only doubt right now is Grandpa purely because their gameplay makes exactly 0 sense).

My case is the following:

1) I was the person who cast the first vote in the final push to eliminate LQ, which was the second time I'd voted for them that day. I may be new to forum games, but if I was scum (which I'm not) there is exactly 0 chance that I would bus that aggressively day 1. It would be a bizarre strategy.

2) I think trying to read who scum would target n1, especially after the scum PR died d1, is fraught. Anyone could have ended up panicking and just prayed to get the Tracker kill. At any rate, given that clearly someone acted in that way, I think thinking that prioritising that as a TR over my instigating the kill on LQ d1 is absurd.

[MargotRosa]

You never know.

Can you retract now?

I retract my tracked claim of Strange visiting -- That was just a reaction test.

Ythan didn't visit the night kill. They are confirmed VT.

I am the real tracker by the way, if it wasn't obvious through my interactions with Alstro and claiming that PR.

There was a chance where Ythan could have been scum claiming my role, however I checked them now just to make sure.

This is very quickly turning into "I am Spartacus", except it's just one guy running around, yelling "I am Spartacus" over and over again in between scurrying quickly to a slightly different place in a large room with only 6 people in it

[MargotRosa]

Ok fine I'll just claim so we can get T3/Roden to play the game!! I am tracker, im gonna go for the night so i will probs re read game tmr afternoon or smh after work

Anyway.

That claim looks so fake by the way now looking back at it. I know hockeyfan personally, he fakeclaims A LOT.

I do remember thinking it was a bit odd that everyone took the claim at face value, when it kinda seemed like it wasn't even a serious claim to begin with. Idk

[MargotRosa]

Figured someone would CC if it needed CC'ing, and when Ythan came on board and we got through d2, I was like, ah well, guess this is definitely legit then

[MargotRosa]

Am a bit in love with the idea of playing Tracker, acting borderline scummy so you aren't targeted by scum at night (who are hoping to knock out people who are PRs or conftown), with the ace up your sleeve that if you are targeted by town, you can claim and save yourself anyway.

[MargotRosa]

Like, here's the rundown. Grandpa is conf. Ythan is conf. Roden I feel 95% ok with my TR there. It's between Strange and T3

[MargotRosa]

Well who do you think could be scum Strange?

[MargotRosa]

This is exactly what happened D1. The game was going fine, and T3 swoops in to mess everything around by claiming that he's bored and that the game has stalled. Not very townie of you there T3

As I say, I feel pretty confident it's between Strange and T3. Out today, but going to write up a whole post when I get home this evening after going through all the ISOs. Pls don't lim before then lol

[MargotRosa]

Grandpa why do you think Margot is town? Do you think he tries to NK the Tracker N1 if he believes I softed Doctor?

By he I mean Strange.

Sorry I wasn't able to go through my full ISO review. Been a rough couple days.

My point is, and has always been, someone tried to NK tracker d1, or someone no killed. One way or the other, someone did it.

What someone did not necessarily do was the utterly baffling move of starting, pushing, and sticking to the final wagon that killed scum PR n1. No-one busses scum PR n1. It's ludicrous. Even more ludicrous would be to push to make it happen so overtly right off, and draw attention to yourself. That's bananas

[MargotRosa]

Look, if I go down, Strange is next, that's all I ask lol.

Even then, I'm not 100%. But if I have to go down, that's my condition. Great if T3 or Roden are scum, but not much I can do about it now lol

[MargotRosa]

or i can VOTE: strange

It's impossible to tell if you're a flip flopping scum or just committed to ending the game out of sheer boredom lol.

[MargotRosa]

I mean, much less likely in my mind than Strange, just frustrated that T3 is committed to muddying the waters as much as possible in the last couple days

[MargotRosa]

Big stream of consciousness post coming. Apologies if the rambliness gets in the way of comprehension too much

[MargotRosa]

So here’s one significant part of why I am convinced that Strange is the last scum, specifically the interactions between them and LQ on d1.

Rereading, their exchanges read so much like scum becoming increasingly frustrated by their partner and the overt scum tells he was giving off.

The dynamic that played out here, if it is between two Scum, is a pretty common pattern I’ve seen IRL. Obviously don’t have the experience of forum format to say whether or not it carries over, but I imagine it would to some extent.

The dynamic in question is when someone is when you have a scum pair, and one of the two is clearly giving off massive scum tells. Even if it’s not necessarily crystal clear for town, it’s clear for the other scum, because they know to look for the tells in the first place.

Generally, when I’ve seen it, it plays out in two phases. At first, there is genuine attempts to subtly deflect away from the scumminess of their partner. It’s always fraught, because if you lean in too hard, you become an obvious target for elimination in later days, so it has to be subtle. Where it really starts to show itself is not even necessarily the person doing the deflection, but in the perceptible differences in the way that their partner interacts with them.

In a d1 that was notable for just how wildly defensive LQ was getting about even the slightest hint of a scum read on him, basically the only slot that did not almost immediately spur instant defensiveness was from Astra/Strange.

Here's some posts, with some brief notes. Hope you can piece together the narrative I'm presenting here. Feeling a bit under the weather, so best I can do under the circumstances. Far from exhaustive. Tried to leave out stuff that could count but may also be very dubious.

Examples of defensiveness in response to:
Roden – 36 38 39
T3 – 125 173
Alstro – 132 146
Me – 144 156 317
Me and T3 – 150
Defensiveness tell in general (which had not been brought up by Astra/Strange slot) – 154 182

LQ responding in a less heated way to Astra/Strange presenting guarded SRs of him:
59 60 68

Back and forth between Strange and LQ (one example of a few, not much evidence of this happening with LQ and other players):
285 292 298 328

Mopre exchanges oin which he and Strange are, on some level (intended or not) backing one another up:
253 284

Literally first time LQ says something that can be even construed as testy towards the Astra/Strange slot is 342 when he tells Strange never to vote for a slot just for info.

Incidentally, is 342 a smoking gun? Does NP stand for night play, and LQ thought he was messaging in scum chat?) Strange’s response 344 is maybe the most obviously irritated I’ve seen them in game (though entirely possibly because it was a brisque way to address them irrespective of whether they were doing it to divert attention from LQ.)

LQ does vote for Strange in 349, but I don’t buy it tbh. It’s a really half-hearted dig.

I know this is very based in emotiion, but that was literally how we tagged LQ in the first place. Makes sense that their interactions might also reveal who his team member was.

[MargotRosa]

Went through ISOs of Roden and T3, and I'll save you the whole shebang, but I just don't think it's them. I know I'm Town. In my mind, it can only be Strange.

[MargotRosa]

So I'm just going to be saying this again since it's somewhat relevant but in my personal experience trying to actually catch scum with partner often ends up leading into Town making many, many mistakes over the course of a single game. My first game had this exact problem, where Town read into interactions where Lukewarm (scum) interacted with multiple people. I just feel like that partners is undeniably the most inconsistent way to catch scum and scum plays around this by dragging down town when they die as well.

I would normally agree with you, but in this instance we have a scum who was making very obvious mistakes and tells throughout d1. I'm just making the point that, given scum completely showed their hand d1, it makes some sense to look to that again when looking at interactions

[MargotRosa]

One way or another, we need to eliminate. We have had deadline extended already. Don't leave us with a no lim

[MargotRosa]

So I'm just going to be saying this again since it's somewhat relevant but in my personal experience trying to actually catch scum with partner often ends up leading into Town making many, many mistakes over the course of a single game. My first game had this exact problem, where Town read into interactions where Lukewarm (scum) interacted with multiple people. I just feel like that partners is undeniably the most inconsistent way to catch scum and scum plays around this by dragging down town when they die as well.

I would normally agree with you, but in this instance we have a scum who was making very obvious mistakes and tells throughout d1. I'm just making the point that, given scum completely showed their hand d1, it makes some sense to look to that again when looking at interactions

That is not at all what I see looking back on the ISO. Half of your posts are from what I've read, "Strange is in my eyes scum and here's a partner reason for my case." It doesn't seem like you are drawing attention to it. Also, can you give me a good reason why you think that T3 is more likely to be town?

I mean, quite aside from everything else, do you think scum hammers their partner without a claim? I imagine that would be something you'd be a bit more careful about

[MargotRosa]

Whereas T3 being a checked out Townie becoming gradually more bored of a newbie game and hammering after checking the thread for a couple of minutes does make sense to me

[MargotRosa]

Ok, another possibility just occurred to me. I'm town, but if it turns out not to be Strange, we lose, because I don't see me not getting voted out tomorrow, and Town only has two eliminations left.

New possibility - vote me out today, no kill the next day. More or less works out to be the same thing, except you only have three people rather than 6. Less room for error

[MargotRosa]

If we can't organise to kill me today, we can no kill today and vote me out tomorrow. Again, works out to be the same thing

[MargotRosa]

If Town want to do this, I'm perfectly happy to do it as well. Feels like it could be the best possible way forward, gives town more time to think, and whittles down the possibilities

[MargotRosa]

If we can't organise to kill me today, we can no kill today and vote me out tomorrow. Again, works out to be the same thing

Though this is actually kind of weird to say since there's only 1 person voting you, and T3 only wanted to vote you because of POE. Also no elimination is the worst thing to be doing today since scum gets away with NK and its still ELO with 1 confirmed in a playerlist of 5 people. Not to mention the complete 180 from other posts?

I think I'm just worked up about a successful d1 leading into an utter mess lol. We would have been fine to no kill today, because after someone got killed tonight, we'd have 5 (vote out 1), then it's ELO. We'd have had an extra day

[MargotRosa]

Well, I fucked up. Apologies all

[MargotRosa]

I think it's probably T3, but open to other suggestions

[MargotRosa]

We have 1 conf town, so what do you think Grandpa?

[MargotRosa]

I think it's probably T3, but open to other suggestions

The only other suggestion from your point of view is me.

To be clear: I absolutely think it's T3, 100%. I'm also suffering a crisis of confidence, because I have had terrible reads since an amazing d1. So I'm just going to sit back a bit today, in case my having you as conf town is yet another terrible read

[MargotRosa]

I'm also kind of stunned at how low energy this game has been since d1. Half the other games I've been looking at have this many posts by n1 lol

[MargotRosa]

newbie 2075

Where it was pushed by another scum lol

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12928402

[MargotRosa]

God I wish I jsut trusted my first instincts rather than just submitting to doubt and shit. This is like fundamental lessons from Star Wars 101 that I should have picked up when I was 8 lol.

[MargotRosa]

BTW if there is a tracker you should claim now.

Why?

If there's no Tracker then we play normally. If there is a Tracker then if there's a Jailkweper they should Jail the Tracker. If there's a FN they should target the Tracker. If there's a Doctor they should protect the Tracker.
Once day 2 hapens we massclaim.
If Doctor/FN is run up to E-1 then just claim 'PR'.

Mafias don't know if there's a FN or a Doctor.

How is this not a Doc soft? Why would I not think you were Doc here?

Figuring that either you or T3 must have been doc after you spelled it out was why I completely let it go part way through d1, and why I was completely thrown by the whole Alstro stuff on d2. I figured that I must have been completely wrong on my read of what the two of your plan was.

My point on d1 stands: I remain completely unconvinced as to why anyone would want tracker to claim d1 unless they were scum. I showed mathematically why it was a terrible idea. I let it go because I figured that I was new to forum games, that it was known that we had a doctor, and that the risk was more calculated than it was.

If tracker finds scum n1, tracker reveals d2 and it's the same result either way. If tracker doesn't, we get what happened here: tracker finds some people that can be labeled conf town that get nuked by scum as they are revealed, and then the tracker dies, and we're in a much worse situation than if tracker had not claimed and the conf town reads could be shared when there were too many for scum to kill before elo.

You're clearly scum T3, but genuinely interested in whether or not you can give a valid explanation for why it's not a terrible idea from Town perspective
VOTE: T3

[MargotRosa]

I read back through the explanation in that game, and it so transparently doesn't work lol.

Also very funny to me that part of the reason I dropped it was LQ pointing out it was site meta, despite it having been made up by a scum in one game, that one game being the previous newbie game lol

[MargotRosa]

50/50 tracker dies there
anyways i would once again like to point out that i hammered lq

Yeah, by all appearances completely accidentally, and while telling everyone in your post that LQ was Town lol

[MargotRosa]

there is a possibility where margot is a new player who forgot they had tmi to scum info and didnt know about doc so targeted tracker.

My whole point in 53 is about how good the chances are for scum targetting literally anyone but tracker if tracker was revealed. If I was scum, I literally laid out what my play would have been, and the maths of why, and it wasn't the play that happened. Ergo, I'm Town

[MargotRosa]

I'm so over this game lol. Just end it. I hope whoever is scum enjoys the win they pulled out of their arse

[MargotRosa]

Honestly wondering if Roden is scum at this point lol. Spent too much time in the ISOs and going full galaxy brain

[MargotRosa]

T3 spends half of d1 trying to defend LQ and push that he was Town when he so clearly wasn't. See: 217 297 554 and most infamously when accidentally hammering LQ 596

He also pushed the weird point about Clasko 'perspective slipping' in 220 which I just don't buy as an actual argument worth hanging a Town perspective vote on.

Also, worth pointing out that Strange's point in 282 feels like more of an important read than people gave it credit for. It feels like either way (though it's more than likely T3 in this instance), there is an innate understanding in both T3 and Roden that if you TR the other early, and stick to it, you've got an ally one way or the other throughout the entire game, irrespective of whether you're on the same team or not. I think it makes a lot of sense to me that T3 would go hard on TRing Roden early as Scum, especially after Roden TRd T3 for what we now know is a misread of T3's whole strategy.

I'm down in Georgia playing the fiddle against the devil, but he's using you as his instrument Roden.

[MargotRosa]

margot has such extreme conviction bc sheknows if she lims me she wins

I mean, yeah. That's what happens when you lim the last scum lol

[MargotRosa]

VOTE: Margot

I think this is just it. I really don't wanna lose because we didn't follow the logic that pointed to her just because of AtE. Unless your analysis brings up something damning about T3, I don't want to change my vote. I've reread the game so many times now and I just don't see what other info we could possibly analyze. I've asked all the questions I can think of and there's just nothing left to discuss at this point.

I'm really sorry if it isn't you Margot, I just think T3's most likely town here.

Just remember, when we lose, that we lost because you thought it was more likely that I spent most of d1 aggressively bussing the scum power role than T3 decided to no kill on n1, despite the fact that it makes the game last no more days than it does currently (as proved by current game state. It would be the same ELO situation, just with 3 players rather than 4).

[MargotRosa]

Sharing this, not necessarily because I think it will change your mind Roden, but because I'm a stats nerd and I found the thread this was posted in fascinating.

Note in the post I've linked the massive uptick for scum hammering another scum in situations where there are 5 votes needed to eliminate someone (third row down, on the right). Scum account for about one third of hammers, as opposed to around one tenth of first votes on the final wagon that results in scum elimination. In this instance, I was the first to vote for LQ in the final wagon, and T3 was the hammer.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12910844

Even statistics is on my side lol

[MargotRosa]

I was dead set happy to be eliminated yesterday just by virtue of the fact that I had made myself so scummy that the waters were muddied lol

[MargotRosa]

I'm so mentally over this game I nearly self-hammered at least three times. Honestly, if I was scum, I probably would have. I'm currently driven only by not wanting fellow Townies to be frustrated with me at the end of first game lol

[MargotRosa]

@t3 why did u think it could be roden

On this, I think personally it was posted just to make me even more confused and less likely to trust myself.

Admittedly this is protagonising a bit, but just feels like T3 trying to make me seem even less Townie by making me turn on everyone.

For what it's worth, all my chips are staying on T3 no matter what

[MargotRosa]

Grandpa, if T3 is scum then do you believe he no-killed N1? Or do you think he targeted the Tracker?

For me, in the world where T3 is scum I think he'd have to no-kill. Assuming his explanation of his gambit is a lie, he would've known that I thought he was Doc, so if anyone but him died then that would tip me off that he was scum. In this scenario, that is exactly why he's adamant in saying that he didn't realize I thought he was Doc, because that would make me question what happened on N1. Which...actually makes a lot of sense.

On this, I've been thinking about it and I'd say T3 no-killed, but for another reason.

Like, calculus for a scum when they are playing 1v5 is completely different from 2v4, especially when investigative role is a tracker rather than a cop.

In the latter instance, you want to get rid of as many people as possible as quickly as possible.

In the former, you don't necessarily, especially if there is a chance that you'll be outed as scum if AND ONLY IF you take a night action. Tracker can't work out you're scum unless they track you when you move, and you can bide your time until the doctor is forced to out themselves by virtue of a threat of being lim'd by Town, and/or you can be sure that the tracker won't watch your slot to out you as the scum. As it is, waiting one day was perfect, because it meant that when it got down to elo, there were 4, rather than 3, which is much better odds for scum (Town have a 3/4, rather than 2/3 chance of getting it wrong, all else being equal). On top of that, a more experienced player puts all the pressure on players who would otherwise have targeted the tracker and gets all the heat off of them.

In short, it makes the most tactical sense, as I see it, for scum to no kill until doctor is revealed, and I think T3 has been playing long enough to have worked that out

[MargotRosa]

Kind of nice, personally, to have worked out my niche a bit in my first game.

Spent too much time as a neurodivergent mathematician and political economist to play to the emotional game very well. The analytical, data side of this game is where I reckon I will shine

[MargotRosa]

i've kinda been ignoring this game

Bloody lol

[MargotRosa]

im probably can lim t3 here just because

no

Very convincing dude

[MargotRosa]

@Grandpa and @Roden

Whatever happens, can we agree to lim someone today please?

Unless T3 has anything more to say, I think everyone has said their piece.

This game is just dragging on at this point, and half the posts at this point give the distinct impression of prod-dodging.

I am Town. I have done my absolute best to be as honest and forthcoming as possible, and to speak my mind on everything as I am thinking it. That has clearly not worked in my favour in some moments, though clearly has in others (thinking especially of the d1 push to get LQ eliminated).

I would also like to point out that I can't join another newbie game until this one ends, as it is my first newbie game on the site. I'm in a Normal atm, but would like to get into at least one more quick newbie game while I'm working out how to adjust to the format.

Obviously glad that everyone took their time to come to a decision, but honestly, if we get to within half an hour of the deadline and it looks like there will be a non elimination, I'm just going to self hammer and start a new game. This is too meandering and torturous to be worth another 9 days (2 days for night, 7 days of game time).

[MargotRosa]

I have to be up at that time anyway because I have a lecture starting about 30 minutes before the deadline runs out.

[MargotRosa]

Fuck it, I think Grandpa's probably just right. Margot's fighting way too hard and T3's too disengaged at this point.

VOTE: T3

You won't regret it.

On a related note, I want it on record that in my first MS game, I fought as hard as I could to bring it home for Town.

[MargotRosa]

@Grandpa, I swear to goodness lol

[MargotRosa]

Can't even self hammer lol. Such is god damned life I guess

[MargotRosa]

Me neither. And yeah, @mod, fast night please

[MargotRosa]

VOTE: T3

My case has been made in a hundred different ways over the last many pages. I'm town. That's that

[MargotRosa]

Now it's twilight, please confirm you were Town Roden lol

[MargotRosa]

GG Roden, well done.

I considered Roden a couple of times in the game, but honestly felt impossible to push. By the last couple days, it felt a bit like the only other person playing was Roden

[MargotRosa]

Honestly, only elimination I really regret was Egix. I think that one made no sense, but every other one I can rationalise in my head after the fact. Should have spent more time last few days trying to work out who was who. Over confidence is a killer

[MargotRosa]

Yeah, for sure. Many lessons learned.

[MargotRosa]

Can I ask @T3, why were you so convinced initially that LQ was Town?

Also, can we all agree that the tracker reveal thing is utter rubbish haha

[MargotRosa]

Will the Mafia PT be shared?