3d20 – The Great Board Game War [GAME OVER]

[ssbm_Kyouko]

My original roll was 13 8 1, a mafia parity cop with no modifier but I was shuffled into a town role. In case it wasnt clear, not only did 5 individual dice from 5 different players' rolls get fudged by the mod for balance, but after that happened, the resulting roles derived from the rolls were shuffled.

Also dwlee is never a mason VOTE: dwlee

[ssbm_Kyouko]

The setup doesnt say whether it's the type of parity cop that targets 2 players per night and learns if they are aligned, or if it was the kind that targets a player and gets an arbitrary result like a number that can be used to compare to flipped roles and other results to determine parity

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Parity Cop defined in Clarifications.

If you posted this before clarifying, ignore this, but if you posted it after, just a heads up that your edit did not save and the clarification isn't there yet

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I forgot to sup nerds your asses

Sup nerds

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Ngl I was hype to have rolled scum parity cop in what is (I think, haven't run the numbers) more likely than not a multiball setup

[ssbm_Kyouko]

(assuming Kyo is telling the truth and neither role got changed)

You think I would do that? Just go on the internet and tell lies?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Okay did anyone else roll parity cop lmao

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Sure who's that
VOTE: MegA

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Everyone should out their rolls btw, not just players that rolled 13-20. It will help poe later when we can reference flips back to claims.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

The reason we need full rolls is for cases like James' roll. Functionally we cant tell the difference between James roll and Marashu's roll because 1 number from 5 rolls has been changed. By him claiming a blank middle number, we wont be able to tell if a flipped role matches his original roll or if it matches Marashu's roll with the 2nd die modified.

I wouldn't be surprised if James or someone on James' team advised him to claim in this way to muddy the waters

VOTE: JamesTheNames

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I agree that rolled town roles shouldn't out (at least, not yet.) Saying you rolled a town role is fine, but I'd rather if scum didn't know what we have. Exception: If you rolled town and a miller-like modifier, I think we should out those(alignment and mod) but not the PR.

I went back and checked, I dont think there is any way for anti-town to play around knowing what roles went to town. There's also no guarantee the roles went to town or that the roles/modifiers were the same due to the 5 fudged rolls

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Cyrus what was your 2nd dice?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'm just going to ask this to double check that I understand this fully, I'm pretty sure I do.
Let's say I rolled a 1,1,1 this means just a bog standard vanilla town.
That role is then added to a pool of 13 total roles, and those new roles are given out randomly.
Is my understanding of this correct? I just need it double checked.

Yes, and there is a possibility that one of those three 1s was changed by the mod to make the setup balanced. The mod changed 1 die each on 5 different rolls before reshuffling the resultant roles to the players

[ssbm_Kyouko]

So if Town Even-Night [Role] flips, we dont know if it was your or Marashu's roll. If you tell us you rolled a 3 - JOAT, then if we see a Town Even-Night JOAT flip, it's reasonable to assume it was your roll and not Marashu's that had the Parity Cop fudged into a JOAT

[ssbm_Kyouko]

VOTE: Cyrus

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Not sure if pgo should out yet, worried about how bus driver works.woth that. Wouldnt want the cult bus driver to drive some unsuspecting player into the PGO and result in the cult gaining a nightkill indirectly

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Holy shit Meg's eyes move

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Hmm, I think depending on how many targeting roles town appears to have and what nights they're on may assist with determining when or if the pgo should claim

Right now we know 2 of towns roles are even-night, assuming no lies or changes to modifiers, if we get more even nights or vanillas or something, might not be worth PGO outing at all

[ssbm_Kyouko]

@mod, Is it guaranteed that after the 3d20 rolls were fudged and then shuffled, that nobody received their own 3d20? Or is this something you can't answer?

For example, assuming I rolled 13,8,1 and you didnt change any of those numbers, would I be guaranteed to not receive the role card that was generated by

my

3d20 roll?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

yes 7,7,1 but now scum know thanks alot now the trick wont work gee.

This basically cements it in my mind that you're not town-sided. Even if it wasn't for the logic in my previous post, they have other tricks which arguably are more useful when it is revealed. The actual PGO is basically gunning on luck of the draw to get killed and used their skill normally if their role isn't revealed. They could out themselves as the PGO, then we have the questions: Are they actually an active role? Are they actually the PGO? Are they actually a completely useless role?
I think purely in terms of mechanics you're not town-sided. The only disadvantaged group after a PGO claim are non-town.

what i prefer the game where scum doesnt know every role before n1 but by all means go on and let them know what to watch for also isnt funny how every one who posted so far saids the got town.?

I rolled Mafia (received Town after shuffle) and MegAzumarill rolled Cult - of course we all are saying we got town after the shuffle though

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Oh I think my vote is still on Cyrus

UNVOTE:
In spirit I'll vote anyone who doesnt want to claim what they rolled in their 3d20

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I don't understand

Do you not think it implies he didn't end up as town?

Either from the "can't answer this" when there was nothing to answer, or from the "yet" implying he has some impressive revelation to reveal later in the game.

Cyrus is just like that idk

last time i even stated what i had in a pack i was killed n1 so sue me for not wanting to die n1. btw james left a super big crumb how else would he know it was 7,7,1

Pretty sure you were crumbing that your second die was a 7 when you said you rolled town and got a 7. It's the kind of loophole you use so you can safely say you never lie.

You'd be like "see guys I never lied, I said all along i rolled town AND i got a 7, boom"

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Omgu didnt claim
VOTE: sircakez

[ssbm_Kyouko]

ssbm_Kyouko do you have any inkling what Cyrus62's alignment is?

Possibly he's scum because I think he crumbled that he rolled it in the first place and now he's suspecting you for guessing that it was PGO from his crumbs.

I think it's more important to force everyone to claim their rolls before end of day though. Once flips start coming it gives people ingo to fakeclaim from. This is also why I'm checking if roles were guaranteed to shuffle, so that people cant use their actual role to fakeclaim a roll (but tweak one dice)

Pedit: the verbiage in post 5 could either mean you "may not" as in, impossible for it to happen, or could mean it is not guaranteed to happen.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

VOTE: T3

Why am I orange in the VC? Just a leading wagon thing?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Oh nm, I was reading the VC in pedit and didnt see the explanation

[ssbm_Kyouko]

T3 what's your full 3d20 roll?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I have an idea.
IF YOU ARE TOWN AND HAVE THE MULTITASKING MODIFIER YOU SHOULD CLAIM IF YOU HAVE MULTITASKING OR NOT

Why?

Because Multitasking is useless for town.

Why is that relevant? If anything knowing there is more than one multitasking town in the game helps scum fabricate a safe fake 3d20 claim

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Now claim your 3d20 because you're clearly looking for info that helps you fake a 3d20

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Or, I'm town, and trying to help the town by gathering as much info as I can

surprised_pikachu.jpg

[ssbm_Kyouko]

VOTE: SirCakez

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I rolled Town Roleblocker but the mod gave me something completely different

I'm messaging them to try and work it out

I rolled a mafia fruit vendor with either two or no modifiers (14, 6, 20). So.. have fun with that whoever.
so theres a cult member, no other factions/third parties?

Spoiler: soft mechanics commentary

here is a question if someone who is "town" gets recruited by cult leader should they reveal they were recruited the next day?

people have to play to wincon so no

if i get that i wont tell i cant be nk any way .

this is not true, it's one4one

never under any circumstances claim what you rolled unless someone has claimed it

why
what purpose would that serve for town

Quoting these for my notes for later

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Nero whatd you roll on the 3d20?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Town rolecop

With no modifiers right?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I rolled Town Roleblocker but the mod gave me something completely different

I'm messaging them to try and work it out

Same question for thor, did you roll any modifiers with the third d20?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

So we need 3d20 roll claims still from Cakez, RMH, and DotW

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'm tracking them on paper and once they're all in, I'll consolidate them into one post for future reference

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Tldr on roll-claiming

• if we all claim rolls, we know the possible roles in the setup. This can help us later on in massclaim. It will create situations where if scum want to lie about a role then, or lie about a roll now, they can be caught later on by poe

[ssbm_Kyouko]

who are we still waiting on to clime rolls?

Dragon of the West and Robert M Hunter

[ssbm_Kyouko]

fyi this is how i play i currently sorting you and gauging your responses to find out if i think your pro team or anti team. basically you feel kinda anti to me right now.

not a huge fan of this - feels like dressed up OMGUS

never under any circumstances claim what you rolled unless someone has claimed it

the fuck happened to this?

VOTE: T3

Why am I orange in the VC? Just a leading wagon thing?

I know this was a while ago but why this vote?

My vote in 127 was in response to 124

[ssbm_Kyouko]

These are the current roll claims, who made them, and the post they were made in:
Cyrus62 - [7, 7, 1] Town Paranoid Gun Owner with no modification - 72
Dragon of the West - [1-13, 5, ?] Town Neighborizer with an unknown modification - 322
Dwlee99 - [12, 8, 14] Town Parity Cop with a Multitasking modication - 34
JamesTheNames - [6, 10, 7] Town Tracker with an Even-Night modification - 64
Marashu - [1-13, 8, 7] Town Parity Cop with an Even-Night modification - 37
MegAzumarill - [19, 17, 20] Cult Bus Driver with a Reroll Twice modification - 82
Nero Cain - [1-13, 9, ?] Town Rolecop with an unknown Modification - 226
Redtea - [14, 6, 20] Mafia Fruit Vendor with a Reroll Twice modification - 171
Robert M Hunter - [2, 19, 3] Town Roleblocker with no modification - 344
SirCakez - [1-13, 9, 20] Town Rolecop with a Reroll Twice modication - 268
Ssbm_Kyouko - [13, 8, 1] Mafia Parity Cop with no modification - 25
T3 - [1-13, 14, 5] Town Voyeur with a Multitasking modification - 139
Thor Ragnarok - [1-13, 19, ?] Town Roleblocker with an unknown modification - 167

Looks like we have 10-2-1 by claims. It seems likely there are people lying considering the alignment distribution alone, but there are also several instances of duplicated roles where it will become ambiguous who is lying in a mechanical 1v1. Town was only expected to roll 60% of the time, so realistically we can assume that even if everyone told the truth that 1-2 of the town roles had the alignment die changed to something else. To be closer to 60% of the players (7.8 players)

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Clime=claim

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think everything Thor Ragnarok says from here on should probably be taken with a pinch of salt.

Why?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Reroll twice as a modifier means the moderator rolled 2d20 and the role that originally got "reroll twice" as a modifier now gets 2 modifiers from the mod's roll of 2d20. If the mod rolled conflicting modifiers, like even-night and odd-night, they just cancel each other out, and the role becomes "normal" with no modifiers. Otherwise the role gets both modifiers.

For example, the cult bus driver could be a multitasking doubled cult bus driver, allowing them to recruit once and bus drive twice every night. Most likely if the mod had rolled something that powerful with the trolls though, the roll would have been fudged for balance

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Since the mod rolls for the 2 modifiers, the player that rolled "2 modifiers" does not know what modifiers were rolled by the mod

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Nobody rolled a 13 on the role die, there are places where people claimed they rolled town but did not specify a number and James marked it as "1-13" to indicate it was a number in that range. It should be "1-12" to indicate town though because 13-14 was mafia

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Okay I misread something I guess. 14 is rampaging

You rolled a 14 and misread the modifier table, right?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

On the subject of that list, it should probably be updated for dwlee's mistake of rampaging and not multitasking.

Thor, let's assume you don't get culted and that you want to win as town. How would you plan on doing so?

kyouko, throw me a bone here - where's your head at?

I'm comparing claims to see which roll-claims could create the same role after a fudge.

Cyrus, Nero, Thor, Cakez, Dragon, and RMH's roll-claims are able to create the same roles, if the mod fudged the 2nd die. I want to lim in this pool today to start narrowing that down, as if many of these players live to ELO, we wont have the mechanical advantage in massclaim.

I was asking Dwlee about that because interestingly enough, T3's claim can create the same role as Dwlee's original claim, but cant create the same as his updated (rampaging) claim. Multitasking Town Voyeur is not that strong a role - might be worth asking for someone that has a role that could be created from T3's roll to.come forward. They wouldn't need to full claim, just claim if their role

could

have been created by T3's roll.

If nobody comes forward, it would mean either T3 was lying or scum have a multitasking voyeur

[ssbm_Kyouko]

In fact T3's is the only roll claim that is different enough from everyone else's that his has no overlap after roll-fudging

[ssbm_Kyouko]

If your role could have originally come from town voyeur multitasking, please claim that it could have - but dont claim your full role. If it could not have, please also note that it could not have.

For now I'll VOTE: RMH

[ssbm_Kyouko]

And also, it should be obvious, but my role could not have come from T3's roll.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

As for my pool of 6: Cyrus, Nero, Thor, Cakez, Dragon, and RMH:

That is the order they claimed in. Cyrus claimed first, and is not likely to lie, so I'm striking him right away. Cakez's roll, if true, will most likely be able to differentiated from the others because of the 2 modifiers, and would then only possibly conflict with Nero's roll if Cakez's 2d20 ended up with 1 modifier.

For this my pool narrows to Nero, Thor, Dragon, and RMH. The later the claim, the more likely it was claimed specifically to be obfuscated by the previous claims. So RMH is first in line for me. Also I think his "gambit" might have just been him overreacting to possibly having scumslipped 2 games in a row (this being the second game)

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Dragon is a part of the list because town/neighborizer/none is only one roll (the role die) apart from all of the other "town/[insert role here]/none" claims. So town Neighborizer, town pgo, town rolecop, and 2 town roleblockers - all of these claimed no modifier. Technically cakes with 2 modifiers could have had trolls that resulted in no modifier as well so he is included too

[ssbm_Kyouko]

My phone keeps autocorrecting rerolls to trolls

[ssbm_Kyouko]

My phone keeps autocorrecting rerolls to trolls

Ah I see, I thought you'd apply similar logic to T3's case as it's kind of its own role without many similar.

T3 and meg are the only people that dont have any similar roles, I've already asked that if someone has a role that could come from T3 that they claim they have it, without specifying if their role was fudged or not. It's possible town multitasking voyeur was given a much better modifier or better role if it stayed a town role, so I think the most info we should give to scum is that whoever claims that role is not the pgo, but dont let them know how powerful or weak that roll became (or stayed)

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Obviously nobody is going to come forward and say they're the cult bus driver with 2 modifiers, I think it's safe to say theres no point in asking anyone who got Meg's roll to claim it - if it stayed cult it wont get claimed, and if meg is scum lying about the existence of a cult to send us on a wild goose chase, it also wont get claimed.

In fact because of the likely existence of rolecop(s), if you ended up as a town bus driver you should claim today or forevermore get eliminated if a rolecop finds you are a bus driver

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Drivers also generally cant self-target so we should clarify with the mod, but it should be impossible for the cult bus driver to fake innos on themself by swapping their position with another player

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Also generic claims like "I have one of the roles on the list exactly" should be avoided because if someone that received scum rolled a strong tpr like a double doctor or whatever, they will be trying to hunt that PR, and your claim will narrow the POE. I think I already saw someone claim like this so it should be avoided in the future

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I would like to point out that her pool of 6 is everyone besides dragon that's been mentioned as a possible wagon. Although I think dotw saying that he'll sheep a town reads seems very dissimilar from my previous experience with him and rmh is scummy with his terrible vote of cakez

Ngl I haven't really been paying attention to wagons and am only looking at the roll-claims. Pretty sure this setup can be cracked because of the shuffles, but only if we eliminate correctly. If we get to LYLO with, say, the actual Town Roleblocker, Thor, and RMH, it would be difficult for the roleblocker to know which one lied. This is an oversimplified example, but the point is, we know that exactly 5 roles were fudged, and we know

how

they were fudged as well (exactly one roll, never more than one roll from the same 3d20 was fudged). Makes it possible to poe this because of the shuffle. Now there's only a 0.45% (half a percent) chance that RMH rolled the same thing as Thor, and vice versa. Once we have enough flips, we'll start to see how many rolls were fudged and by the time we are ready to massclaim, we should have some mechanical 1v1s

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Town-Scum-Cult

Assuming mislims and NKs on town, assuming 3 scum because 10-2-1 feels light on scum to me and I'd rather plan for the worst:

D1: 9-3-1
D2: 6-3-2
D3: 3-3-3

D3 is massclaim if we only see town flips. It's possible we will elim scum or cult leader before this. It's possible cult gets NKed. It's possible cult leader gets NKed. It's possible we elim scum and then the last scum gets culted and we end up in a TvC game with no kills.

I think Cyrus, you are too worried about there being a lot of factions here. Possibly the mod balanced 10-2-1 into something like 8-2-2-1 with werewolves, but unless we see 2 NKs I think it's safe to say this is TvSvC. No aliens, 3p, or wolves.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

In my experience cyrus is easy to lim both as town and as scum

[ssbm_Kyouko]

It seemed like to me he's just saying that he has a role that someone rolled

I'm saying my role isn't what that someone claimed and if my modifier also doesn't match up to a claim then we know someone lied because only one dice can be changed by mod in someone's role.

No this is why people weren't supposed to claim if something matches exactly - if scum rolled your role and lied about it they now know what you have

[ssbm_Kyouko]

It seemed like to me he's just saying that he has a role that someone rolled

I'm saying my role isn't what that someone claimed and if my modifier also doesn't match up to a claim then we know someone lied because only one dice can be changed by mod in someone's role.

No this is why people weren't supposed to claim if something matches exactly - if scum rolled your role and lied about it they now know what you have

How would they narrow anything down though? If you were in a normal newbie game and said "I'm one of the 9 roles" it doesn't reveal what you actually are. The same applies here does it not?

No, I'll explain with a hypothetical. Let's say I was given a scum role, but I rolled town rampaging doctor. If I'm scum, I could lie about what I rolled. Then, if someone says "my role isn't on the list", I know that person is way more likely to be the rampaging doctor I rolled. If we claim "on the list" or "not on the list", it gives info to scum without giving anything equivalent back to town.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I am assuming that cults are bad even though some posts give me the impression that they are are good.

19 - Cult Granted Cult Leader abilities as well.

MegAzur claimed this: - [19, 17, 20] Cult Bus Driver with a Reroll Twice modification - 57

Why aren't we eliminating that player?

That's just the dice they rolled, the rolled roles were reassigned at random. I rolled Mafia Parity Cop but that's not the role I got

[ssbm_Kyouko]

So Nero are you claiming your 3d20-rolled modifier was Ugly?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

It does read like it's possible that RMH thought we were claiming our actual roles rather than 3d20 rolls, but if he thought that it doesnt make sense because why would I and redtea openly claim we were mafia?

Feel like he's trying to play it off like that now so it doesnt look like he claimed he rolled the exact same thing as thor. I do think Robert is PT-reliant so he is quite possibly our cult leader here, and maybe thinking we wanted him to roleclaim, not rollclaim, and he tried to fakeclaim something that someone else rolled because his real role is cult leader and he doesnt have a pt to advise him. If he were scum he would wait for advice in his pt before posting - he did it in Chrono Trigger Chronicles (the game where he PT-slipped and outed himself as scum while they were discussing fakeclaims in the PT)

[ssbm_Kyouko]

We only have parity cops so they wont get an "alien" result, it should just be if the Ugly Townie is compared to another town player that they will appear to not be aligned

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Oh and if we dont lim RMH today, if scum could shoot him that'd be scooby doo gucci jacuzzi and absolutely

100

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Let's have RMH clarify whether he was claiming a role or a 3d20 roll. If it was a roll, RMH, claim the modifier you rolled as well. If it was a role claim, claim the modifier you actually received. Then, after RMH claims, Thor, can you claim the modifier you rolled on Town Roleblocker with your 3d20? If RMH was claiming a role and claims the wrong modifier we turbolim him

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Dwlee can you slay RMH with me?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Ah scratch that about the RMH claim, I just reread his iso. It's clear what the gambit was meant to do and he claimed what he rolled, not his role. Also already hard claimed no modifier on his roll.

So thor, did you roll a modifier on your 3d20 roll? The third die.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Alright, only people that are conflicting then, considering Nero and Dragon's modifiers, is Cyrus/Thor/Cakez(technically, but unlikely because 2d20 reroll for modifiers)/and RMH

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Can someone ELI5 why Roberts roll claim makes him scum

It's a low chance that he rolls the same role that Thor did. Far more likely he lied about what he rolled and to avoid getting caught outright later on, he stole someone else's roll (Thor's) so it would be a 1v1 at worst. If RMH had claimed before Thor I'd be saying the same thing about Thor rn, in reverse.

Odds of rolling the exact same role seem lower than the odds of him being scum trying to hide what he really rolled (possibly a decent scum PR that one of his buddies or he ended up with)

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Hes also just disappeared and this is exactly what he did in Chrono Trigger Chronicles when I pegged him D1 for his play. He disappeared and laid low until the gamestate moved elsewhere.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Idk how to do the math exactly in this situation but I can do a simulation of 13 rolls 1000 times or something and let you know how often the resultant set of rolls includes a duplicated town role

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I dont expect it to be as high as you think but I haven't taken stats in like 10 years at this point so *shrug*

[ssbm_Kyouko]

The results are in folks

out of 1,000,000 simulated sets of 13 rolls, a TOWN role was only duplicated at least once within a set of 13 rolls 87,162 times, or 8.7% of the time. So James maybe you had the formula right but missed a zero somewhere if you did the math by hand. When at least one role was duplicated, at least one of the duplicated roles was a Normal-modifier (1-3 on the third die) role 30,607 times, which is 35.1% of the duplicated town roles, or 3.1% of all of the sets of 13 rolls.

My script treats 1-12 on the first die as the same by mapping those rolls to the string "Town", and treats 1-3 on the third die as the same by mapping it to the word "Normal". If it rolls over 13, it doesnt roll the remaining 2 die as I didn't care about matching results that were not town. It only rolls the first die 13 times = it does not continue to roll until 13 town rolls, it just rolls 13 times and only keeps track of the Town roles in an array to compare to each other later after all 13 rolls are made.

I can post the script (I think) without it proving randomness as long as I don't post the output, for anyone who wants to check my work that knows javascript.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I mistakenly pegged Dwlee as a Mason like 3 games in a row by misinterpreting posts as softs so I started to joke about it in RVS

One time he opened a game posting

Tic
Tac
Toe

And I thought it was a crumb he was masons with T3, but it was a reference to a recently completed game "Tic Tac Toe mafia". Another time he said a few things in a series of posts with Shrek and I thought when Dwlee said "why me = fry me" and Shrek said "I leave all my possessions to greg the egg" that Dwlee was literally crumbing "fry

me

", like you would fry an egg, and that "greg the egg" was Dwle

e99

where the 9's were g's, as in egg. In that game, I was mafia and had a Traffic Analyst on my team who even confirmed Dwlee had access to a PT, but it turned out he had been neighborized by the Traitor. Huge fiasco for the scumteam, funny game to read, Mini Normal "FIA WRC" modded by Osuka.

I think there was a third time at some point, maybe it was just those 2

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I know javascript and could double-check the work if it's allowed by the rules, but not before this evening.

Sent a PM to Cook checking if I can post it

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Dwlee why were you so strongly for a MegA elimination earlier toDay? I didn't really see anything at the time but was more focused on rolls

[ssbm_Kyouko]

If there are 9 town, you just do the probability of absolutely 0 sharing and take it away from 1. Comes to about 88% without modifiers, 8% with.
1 - (20/20)(19/20)(18/20)......
1 - (400/400)(399/400)(398/400).......

This is how I thought to do it at first, as the inverse of the probability that there were 0 matching town roles. However, with 1-12 alignment die matching, and the third die having 1-3 equate to matching modifier, it is too complex for me to figure out a formula to represent all of it, even if we try to look only at town rolls by fudging the sample size from 13 down to 8 (60% of the d20 equates to town, 60% of 13 is 7.8. Round up to be generous to RMH) The problem with your formula is that when a 1-3 is rolled, it takes more than one possible "match" out of the denominator, and you have to account for that by summing the 2 scenarios, and it just branches an absurd amount because of the 1-3 modifiers. For every time a modifier is rolled, you have to branch the formula into the sum of (role×Any modifier) + (role×Normal modifier), and once the normal modifier is rolled, future matches become more likely. It's a mess - a simulation is the only way to go for this complex of a scenario

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I feel like James is trying to cover for RMH, and RMH is the scum that actually rolled a strong town role, and is lying about it so that when people claim they are not are not on the list, they can poe to hit that role.

I am not sure if I really see town motivation in James' posting. I do think his Cyrus push is reasonable but I dont like his dwlee one and (confbias alert) he could be looking to wagon dwlee to get a claim and further restrict the poe of the specific role that scum!James and scum!RMH are trying to hunt for.

I think there are only 2 roles (roleblocker or rolecop) on the list that town!James can reasonably have at this point, and those roles both explain his behavior (his assumption that it is likely that the same role was rolled twice). Parity Cops should not target James as town!James could possibly be the Ugly Rolecop.

James, if you really are convinced that RMH rolled the same as Thor, you can back it up with a roleblocker claim and we can wait for someone to corroborate they also have roleblocker.

I think this is 2 scum right here though.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I also feel bad he also gets limmed a lot, I think he's had really shitty luck to roll scum as much as he has, but sometimes it be like that and I think he's rolled it again here. There's still several days yet to go, and I'm down for James as well, it's just that there's an explanation for his views if he is a roleblocker or rolecop

[ssbm_Kyouko]

VOTE: James

[ssbm_Kyouko]

@Thor we still need your modifier die to be claimed

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Thor, are you waiting to out a scumread on RMH or someone else?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Skimming some ISOs as I've been drilled into mechanics this game:
Marashu I think has town thought processes, reasonable reads that dont seem agenda-driven, and is fairly dedicated to hunting the cult. I'm inclined to think he is town, but could be cult leader using the cult hunt to blend in.

MegAzumarill, as the cult leader, would not have outed it. Could be scum using cult as a red herring but I think it's more likely there is a cult leader.

James I think has had some questionable logic in posts thus far and I dont know if he should know better or not. I was leaning into the RMH-buddy theory a lot but it seems like from all of the roles that James has claimed he is

not

, that he likely has an off-list role, so I dont understand why he wasnt more skeptical that RMH could have been lying about his roll. I also felt weird when he collected all the rolls out of the blue, but spotting dwlee's mistaken roll was a good catch so maybe he wasnt just doing it for show.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Robert I think is town. Seems clear that he was confused about the rolls and roles because he received a role (town odd-night roleblocker) that looked similar to what he rolled (town roleblocker with no modifier). This explains his gambit at the beginning as well. The only way he didnt roll this imo is if he and thor are both scum that coordinated to both fakeclaim that they rolled town roleblocker

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Cyrus also town here, considering only 3 anti-town rolls are claimed I'm guessing at least one of the liars about rolls is scum or cult that originally rolled a scum role

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Thor, are you waiting to out a scumread on RMH or someone else?

How did you know it was Robert?

Because you said it was someone who was gone, and I suspected it was robert, and I felt that if you and robert were teamed, you would not have this weird "I have a scumread on someone and I'm going to wait to out it until they're here"

[ssbm_Kyouko]

So I thought if it was robert that all but confirms you 2 are not teamed and are both truthful about your rolls

[ssbm_Kyouko]

So I thought if it was robert that all but confirms you 2 are not teamed and are both truthful about your rolls

I had wanted to wait for you to answer before I voiced that opinion, but I got impatient.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

T3's reads for the most part seem decent. Dont agree on all counts (James stands out), but they seem real enough. I'll reread some more tomorrow, should have some extra time to dedicate here

[ssbm_Kyouko]

You as scum or in a PT easily could have pointed out a "bread crumb" for these reasons, but you couldn't because I got there before your team mate did. If I had to assume with some guesswork, there's currently 1 team mate of yours yet to post, and 1 who has, you were waiting on the person yet to post to finish off this plan.

Let's go further into why town would not do this. You would have no way at all, of knowing what role I am, this allows a Jester to come along and Counter Claim "me".

Can you clarify what you were trying to say here James? Having trouble following this part of the post. Like explain what "plan" cyrus plus 2 buddies have, how does you pointing out this crumb preempt the plan? Where does. Jester factor in to CCing you? You hadn't claimed anything, and weren't needing to claim anything, so how would you get CCed?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Not a single one of my posts has a hint of LAMIST.

This is the funniest post all thread

Funny how? Funny in an ironic way because James looked LAMIST? Or something else? If the former, what seemed LAMIST to you?

unless james is just like that imma vote him
VOTE: james
i should meta, but i probably wont get around to it. if anyone has prev experience speak up. Ill hammer a mega wagon if that happens, just for funsies. Seems like the kind of person who could slip under my radar, leading me to miselim.
Thats where im at so far. Wont vote kyouko, wont vote t3. Kyouko gave me town vibes until i remembered factions and 3p exist. id bet shes not mafia aligned at least.

Why would you hammer a MegAzumarill wagon for funsies?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Why wouldn't we hammer mega?

At the end of page 7 you and RMH hadn't posted anything yet, Thor and MegA had fewer than 5 posts each, I think DotW also had very little posts at that point. Do you think it would have been right to hammer MegA at that time?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Cyrus when you say "pro team" and "anti team", do you mean pro-town and anti-town, or do you mean pro-scumteam and anti-scumteam? Or something else entirely?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Kyouko is a mind reader. Why are Robert and I both town or both scum anyway though? Did he claim an innocent check on me that I missed?

I'm not saying you're both one or the other, I'm saying I dont think you're on the same scumteam. Not S-S. Possible T-T, T-S, T-C, S-C.

You rolled town roleblocker odd night
Robert rolled town roleblocker no modifier

Robert received your roll of town roleblocker odd night and tried to gambit by saying "I'm odd night, I wonder if the other roleblocker is even night" - he did this in Hope's someone would say "I'm an even night roleblocker", and hen he was going to be like "sike fuckin gottem, the other roleblocker is actually no modifier, I know because I'm the one that rolled it"

I dont think you and Robert orchestrated this play, which makes you unlikely to be

scum partners

with him.

Then I saw you say you have a scumread on someone who isn't here and I figured that was probably Robert because Meg I think is the only other MIA player and she hasn't really posted anything you've interacted with yet

I think

. So I figured your SR is probably on RMH and that it doesnt make sense for you as scum to have both coordinated that fakeclaim with RMH and staged a fake delayed hidden scumread on him you were waiting to reveal. It's awfully convoluted and I just don't think there's any way that happened.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I didnt like T3 with an avatar but I'm digging the watamote one, that's a throwback

[ssbm_Kyouko]

You might try to argue that RMH could have been coached in a PT to do that gambit to get TRed, but he has no way of knowing that odd-night is the modifier Thor rolled unless they are teamed, which I dont think is possible, meaning RMH was not coached

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Thor's dice are Town Roleblocker Odd-Night, claimed in 167 and 732

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I see something that may be nothing, but I want it out sooner rather than later. Looking at claims, who appears to have whose roles, and I noticed this about the roles:

James claims to have rolled town even night tracker. He also says scum has no incentive to lie because it can get caught in the poe. This tells me that as scum, he might have told the truth about his role.

Suppose scum!James knows about a Tracker - he knows that a tracker can soft guilty his team if the Tracker targets the killer. But what if the killer is a Multitasking Voyeur? Or a multitasking anything, for that matter? The tracker will see they went 2 places.

However, a Doubled role can also go 2 places in one night. I wonder if T3 and Dragon, or James and Dragon, or all 3 of them, are staging this kind of cover by claiming they rolled roles that can feasibly be mistaken for actual roles that they rolled for the town.

James ties into this because he's POEd himself into claiming Doubled Neighborizer by claiming what he

is not

, unless he received his own roll or he is lying about his role (as scum).

I think one of the rolecops should check James tonight because it will mechanically prove he's lied about his role or roll if he is not a Neighborizer or Tracker. It's possible one of he rolecop roll-claims is fake so unless you as a rolecop have a strong feeling someone else may be the cult leader and you want to check them for a bus driver role, you should check James. It may be ideal for both to check James, in case only 1 exists, or in case the one that checks him is roleblocked or killed (or culted, though James is unlikely to be the cult leader)

In fact because he can be mechanically caught tomorrow and he is unlikely to be cult I'm going to UNVOTE:

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Dragon crumbled Doubled in his first 2 posts btw - he repeated that quote about the Lotus tile word for word. This was before Dragon should have known about a multitasking role, so if we flip any multitasking scum, Dragon needs to go (assuming we've already caught cult)

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I see something that may be nothing, but I want it out sooner rather than later. Looking at claims, who appears to have whose roles, and I noticed this about the roles:

James claims to have rolled town even night tracker. He also says scum has no incentive to lie because it can get caught in the poe. This tells me that as scum, he might have told the truth about his role.

Suppose scum!James knows about a Tracker - he knows that a tracker can soft guilty his team if the Tracker targets the killer. But what if the killer is a Multitasking Voyeur? Or a multitasking anything, for that matter? The tracker will see they went 2 places.

However, a Doubled role can also go 2 places in one night. I wonder if T3 and Dragon, or James and Dragon, or all 3 of them, are staging this kind of cover by claiming they rolled roles that can feasibly be mistaken for actual roles that they rolled for the town.

James ties into this because he's POEd himself into claiming Doubled Neighborizer by claiming what he

is not

, unless he received his own roll or he is lying about his role (as scum).

I think one of the rolecops should check James tonight because it will mechanically prove he's lied about his role or roll if he is not a Neighborizer or Tracker. It's possible one of he rolecop roll-claims is fake so unless you as a rolecop have a strong feeling someone else may be the cult leader and you want to check them for a bus driver role, you should check James. It may be ideal for both to check James, in case only 1 exists, or in case the one that checks him is roleblocked or killed (or culted, though James is unlikely to be the cult leader)

In fact because he can be mechanically caught tomorrow and he is unlikely to be cult I'm going to UNVOTE:

Bolded part relies on James telling the truth about believing that scum not having incentive to lie about rolls.

This doesnt change the mechanics of a rolecop result on James though - he said his role was on the list, he also said hes not a paroty cop, not pgo, not voyeur, not rolecop or roleblocker, and he said there are other roles that can work like a rolecop which softs neighborizer. Put all that together he's very likely Neighborizer, possibly Tracker if he got his own roll and is town

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Which means if a rolecop sees he is not one or the other, he should die

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Dwlee saying his role is not on the list could be cult, but if it is, he may get shot by scum trying to hunt a specific PR they rolled but did not claim. It also behooves scum to shoot at players that are off-list (and already said so before this post, because now that I'm saying this the CL may claim to have a role on the list to avoid this) because they're more likely cult. My top 3 cult-reads right now are Nero, Dwlee, and maybe Cyrus? I'm hoping scum will shoot one of them. I feel like Nero would be stronger usually so this is mostly a bop read but I do think he was trying to buddy cakez a bit earlier? It would behoove cult to recruit someone that already seems to.share their reads, so Nero could be angling to recruit here. Unfortunately I get the same feeling from Dwlee, that he may be angling to recruit me. So don't do that buddy, the cat's out of the bag now. It would be awkward for me to explain why I dont think you're the cult leader anymore in the Morning if you cult me toNight

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Any way it may just be me but we should hunt for cult leader.

This could be Cyrus claiming cult leader - you have to examine every post of his as if it could be literal

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I didnt like T3 with an avatar but I'm digging the watamote one, that's a throwback

I've never heard of it, it was a random gif I found.

Show's called something like Dou kangaete wa watashi ga tomodachi o motenai, shortened to watamote (watashi motenai), it means something like "why dont I have friends?"

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Why did you come up with a whole reasoning for James scum then unvote zzz

Because I want to kill cult, not scum. Scum cant stop me from winning by killing me, but cult can by changing my wincon. If i got culted I'd have a hard time remaining towny.

Why kill scum when I can use them as a vig?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Scum want to win too and it will be harder for them to overcome a cult than town. They're motivated to cult-hunt with their kill, so if we can expose likely suspects and agree with the scum to lim there and have the scum lower poe with kills, we can find the Cult Leader quickest that way

[ssbm_Kyouko]

VOTE: Dwlee

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Meg claims to have rolled it, not to have received it, and I'm not sure that a cult leader would out that they rolled that if they received their own role.

If I roleblock Meg they cannot recruit, right? There's no obscure exception?

You're really confusing me right now.

If a roleblocker blocks Meg, it stops whatever her role would try to do. It's a 1/13 that she got what she rolled, and 12/13 that she did not get what she rolled. I'm of the opinion that it is very unlikely not just because of math but because she outed it, that she is not Cult Leader.

@RMH, just want to make sure I second Marashu's sentiment as you may be able to stop recruitment if you target correctly. Meg is not very likely to be cult leader because she outed the roll. If she were cult she could have waited to claim and claimed something similar to other players' rollclaims for plausibility later, and we would have no idea there is a cult right now. Block someone else that seems likely to be cult leader to you if we dont elim cult leader toDay.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Could be your role was rolled by the actual cult leader as well so consider that before claiming.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I'm pretty sure the only reason we know there is probably a cult is because I asked for it to be outed.

ummm no someone rolled cult bus driver.

And I asked for people to claim if they rolled cult.

Could be your role was rolled by the actual cult leader as well so consider that before claiming.

I mean, I don't see how that changes anything here cause it means scum knows my role and town doesn't.

If scum knows it, it may motivate them to kill you instead of aiming for cult. If cult knows it, it may motivate them to recruit you. If your role is really not on the list, one of those factions already has a good idea of what your role could be. If you claim, they will both know exactly what it is, and by extension will know more about Marashu's role.

So it does matter, but there's no way anyone but you can determine if it should be claimed now or not

Why wouldn't we hammer mega?

At the end of page 7 you and RMH hadn't posted anything yet, Thor and MegA had fewer than 5 posts each, I think DotW also had very little posts at that point. Do you think it would have been right to hammer MegA at that time?

I feel like this is a misrepresentation. We shouldn't be ending the day by p7 anyways and I don't even think that's what redtea was saying.when I wrote this I had actually forgotten that mega was on an Uber long v/la and I was saying that I wouldn't mind killing a useless lurksack.

If this is anything, it's a misunderstanding. I was rereading the game because I've been focusing on mechanics and that comment by redtea on the end of page 6 stood out to me. I feel like you were taking my question to mean that right now when I posted the question that I was against eliminating Meg. That's not what I was implying and I wanted to clear that up. The more I've thought about it though, I doubt Meg is Cult, and I want to find Cult first, so now (but not at the time I posted 770), I am opposed to eliminating Meg.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Shit, just realized cult can bus drive james and the rolecop results will be wrong...

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Oh but the leader isn't likely to be multitasking I suppose

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Yoink

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Who are you town reads, ssbm?

RMH, Marashu, Thor, and if they aren't cult, Dwlee and Cyrus.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

FWIW, I disagree a lot here with Kyouko, it definitely benefits town more to say if you are or aren't on the list.

What benefit is it to town? Or do you disagree with my reasoning as to why it benefits scum?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

@ssbm_kyouko

hey!!!!!

Can someone ELI5 why Roberts roll claim makes him scum

It's a low chance that he rolls the same role that Thor did. Far more likely he lied about what he rolled and to avoid getting caught outright later on, he stole someone else's roll (Thor's) so it would be a 1v1 at worst. If RMH had claimed before Thor I'd be saying the same thing about Thor rn, in reverse.

Odds of rolling the exact same role seem lower than the odds of him being scum trying to hide what he really rolled (possibly a decent scum PR that one of his buddies or he ended up with)

wait, I'm confused. They only match each other 2/3 right? Then that makes 3 pairs of roles where the first two characteristics (alignment, ability) are the same. What makes the robert/thor situation unique here? Did I miss a post?

I posted 655 before thor claimed odd-night modifier, I thought his full 3d20 roll was Town Roleblocker (implying there was no modifier)

[ssbm_Kyouko]

oof

I dont think you're scummy or culty either fwiw

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Hes also just disappeared and this is exactly what he did in Chrono Trigger Chronicles when I pegged him D1 for his play. He disappeared and laid low until the gamestate moved elsewhere.

i want to believe this but it makes me uneasy

he said there are other roles that can work like a rolecop which softs neighborizer. Put all that together he's very likely Neighborizer

how does "like a rolecop" lead to "softs neighborizer"?

Dragon crumbled Doubled in his first 2 posts btw - he repeated that quote about the Lotus tile word for word.

This was before Dragon should have known about a multitasking role, so if we flip any multitasking scum, Dragon needs to go (assuming we've already caught cult)

yall are making my head spin so much how does this work

You dont have to choose whether to believe it, just read the chrono trigger chronicles scum pt. His disappearance here looks the same as in that game. Game just ended a couple weeks ago. However, I think he's definitely town here now that there's more context to his gambit.

Neighborizers are considered like an investigative because they can privately talk to a player to ask them questions that they couldn't ask in the main thread. The wiki compares them in this way, that's what I think he meant by "like a rolecop" considering his claim by poe - that was definitely a soft and it could only be for tracker or Neighborizer in the context of the rest of his posts.

Dragon's saying that wasnt a doubled crumb, but what I am implying is that James and Dragon are scum together, one of the scumteam got a multitasking role and they want to cover for their multitasker performing a kill and an action in one night by claiming that the multitasker is doubled. Multitasking voyeur could claim doubled Neighborizer, perform the NK and voyeur a teammate, then if the tracker tracked the multitasking voyeur they could claim doubled Neighborizer and their buddy could back them up.

Similar logic applies to any multitasking scum role that could target a buddy - if they get tracked while doing it they can claim doubled. The doubled soft without a role claim means to me Dragon wanted to crumb doubled before he should have been aware of a multitasking role, so someone on his team could have it. That someone would probably be James who is aware of a Tracker, unless there is another scum out there that rolled a tracker and lied about it.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

The cult recruiter, I assume, has two functions. Recruitment and Bus Driving. Does a roleblock stop both or just the second one?

Roleblock should block both. Roleblock does stop factional abilities like the scum's nightkill.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Could "cult" be just a name for a third party whose only ability is "bus driver?"

I think it's full role name would be [modifier(s)] Cult Leader Bus Driver. Cult faction with the ability to either recruit or Bus Drive, unless the reroll twice happened to roll multitasking, or was fudged into multitasking on purpose for balance by the mod. If the Cult Leader is multitasking I could see it being only 2 scum and the modified rolls being role or modifier rolls, rather than alignment ones.

Think we have 3 players claiming their role is not on the list now. Could be scum and cult lied about what they rolled, and are banking on CCing to go 1 for 1 at some point? Seems iffy, and that more likely some of the players with roles off-list are scum or cult.

I guess with 3 outed now, we could ask if anyone else off the list wants to come forward - that would mean amongst players off-list there is at least 1 scum or cult, unless some town player has lied about their roll

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Could just be 3 scum and a cult though, then with 4 outed we still may not have a large enough poe to guarantee scum is among the "off list" roles

[ssbm_Kyouko]

VOTE: thor

We're not killing thor, I have no idea why james would out that

[ssbm_Kyouko]

In fact the only reason I can think for james to out that is if he is scum looking for towncred in some weird way

[ssbm_Kyouko]

James is prety much a loctown for the above. He has no reason to say that he knows in the main thread if he is scum.

What's the town motivation to make that post?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

^(The town motivation for James to make that post, not for you to make 884, to be clear)

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Cyrus everyone is a PR

I refuse to believe this. Do you know how bad of a game that would be completely unbalanced and I told you my role isn't on the list since I. Am a vt.

I cant think of any reason for scum or cult to lie if they had rolled VT so likely if you are VT you got one of the "Normal" town roles and your role was changed to vanilla instead of having a role

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Why does it feel like Cakez is focusing on cult hunting maybe too much

Keep reading lmao, I'm the most focused on cult hunting I'm pretty sure. If it comes down to it I'll vote out scum James but I'd rather go for cult today

[ssbm_Kyouko]

also why can't cyrus be VT
it's statistically unlikely yes but he could be the "lone VT in role madness"

Cyrus could be VT if he received the Town PGO or the Town Roleblocker roll, if the role die had been fudged into vanilla for balance. It's also possible that a cult or scum player rolled VT or something else that could be fudged into vt and lied about what they rolled.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

3 people have claimed to be off the list, I think it was you, dwlee, and... cant remember the last but it's in my recent iso. Might have been Cyrus, in which case he could be on the list because of the fudging.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

3 people have claimed to be off the list, I think it was you, dwlee, and... cant remember the last but it's in my recent iso. Might have been Cyrus, in which case he could be on the list because of the fudging.

Forgot to quote marahsu's post when replying

[ssbm_Kyouko]

what does "off the list" mean? what is this list?

Everyone has claimed what they rolled in their 3d20 roll. James put a list together into one post. Some new information has come out since then, like the modifiers on a couple of rolls (Nero's modifier was Ugly, Thor rolled Odd-Night, and Dragon rolled Doubled)

[ssbm_Kyouko]

These are the current roll claims, who made them, and the post they were made in:
Cyrus62 - [7, 7, 1] Town Paranoid Gun Owner with no modification - 72
Dragon of the West - [1-13, 5, ?] Town Neighborizer with an unknown modification - 322
Dwlee99 - [12, 8, 14] Town Parity Cop with a Multitasking modication - 34
JamesTheNames - [6, 10, 7] Town Tracker with an Even-Night modification - 64
Marashu - [1-13, 8, 7] Town Parity Cop with an Even-Night modification - 37
MegAzumarill - [19, 17, 20] Cult Bus Driver with a Reroll Twice modification - 82
Nero Cain - [1-13, 9, ?] Town Rolecop with an unknown Modification - 226
Redtea - [14, 6, 20] Mafia Fruit Vendor with a Reroll Twice modification - 171
Robert M Hunter - [2, 19, 3] Town Roleblocker with no modification - 344
SirCakez - [1-13, 9, 20] Town Rolecop with a Reroll Twice modication - 268
Ssbm_Kyouko - [13, 8, 1] Mafia Parity Cop with no modification - 25
T3 - [1-13, 14, 5] Town Voyeur with a Multitasking modification - 139
Thor Ragnarok - [1-13, 19, ?] Town Roleblocker with an unknown modification - 167

"The list" >Cyrus< vt off "^the list^"

You're only "off the list" if none of the roles on the list can be modified once to result in your role. If you're VT, your role could have come from your own roll or from Robert's if Cook changed PGO or Roleblocker to Vanilla

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Marashu #974
what makes you think kyouko isn't deepwolfing as cult?

The fact that it's hard to think of them as a deepwolf is what makes them a deepwolf, though. Sure, the mechanical play at first could have been buying time to see who was townread and who wasn't, but the thought process in 499 through to 534 felt town to me. I think the biggest point I disagree on with kyouko is that she wants mafia to try to shoot cult; I don't think mafia will be that helpful to town since they are safe from culting.

Mafia are only safe from culting while they have a full team, and if they cant shoot or eliminate the cult leader they're just as soon going to lose to cult as town is. Additionally, Cult is able to (soft) cop mafia right now - if they try to recruit and fail, it means they were either blocked or their target was mafia. Once cult gains numbers they can use those soft guiltied to force eliminations on failed recruits, and they'll outgrow the mafia in numbers by D3 assuming 2 scum and nothing goes wrong for cult.

In short, Mafia need to kill cult by N2 at the latest, or on D3 they'll be in serious danger. Even if they kill the leader N3, there would still be another potential recruit for total of 3 cult that know each other and can outvote the mafia easily

[ssbm_Kyouko]

James are you or are you not the doubled Neighborizer? If you are, can you put 2 players that are both not Dragon of the West into a hood tonight?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

James are you or are you not the doubled Neighborizer? If you are, can you put 2 players that are both not Dragon of the West into a hood tonight?

Actually dont think that matters, was thinking it was provable but there are so many ways it could work out wrong. As scum in a group of 3 they can kill someone and jaime can claim his 3rd buddy and the dead person were his targets. Or is james is town and a roleblocker was made scum they can block him

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I kinda just want to know if the cult is real. We're too fragmented. This is the most pro-town elim today I think

VOTE: Gamma

I could also do James because I can see Gamma/James as partners, and if they are, the cult is possibly a lie to distract from scum

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I kinda just want to know if the cult is real. We're too fragmented. This is the most pro-town elim today I think

VOTE: Gamma

I could also do James because I can see Gamma/James as partners, and if they are, the cult is possibly a lie to distract from scum

you've been all about finding and killing cult and now you are voting not cult?!?

someone rolled cult so it exists.

MegA/Gamma could be lying about having rolled cult bus driver if the slot is scum. We have claims from people that say they are not on the list. It's possible scun have lied about cult to distract.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Then DOTW unvotes Thor, too. Oh wait, it's because Thor claimed "I'm the Town Paranoid Gun Owner" sorry I missed that.


SirCakez (3): T3, cyrus62, Gamma Emerald
Thor Ragnarok (2):Robert M Hunter, Marashu
cyrus62 (2): JamesTheNames, redtea
Dwlee99 (2): , ssbm_Kyouko

Lmao

[ssbm_Kyouko]

No, I also think Cyrus or Nero could be cult as I've said earlier. Dwlee is still my top cultread but there is no interest in that and I figured the next best thing would be to eliminate Gamma and find out if the cult roll is definitely true if he flips town.

It could still be a true roll coming from scum, but there is a possibility it's a lie if Gamma is scum.

I also thought Thor could be cult but I was willfully ignoring it because he was clearly softing PGO. I was going to push him D2 or D3 if we still hadn't found the cult leader.

Cyrus feels like a safe enough elimination and if he did get cult his PGO play maybe makes a little sense. I mean it does make sense, but not for Cyrus I feel. If he flips town we know pgo is real and we only lose a VT as well so it's not all downside.

I also feel like Cyrus is townie and is maybe just getting pushed as an easy mislim though.

I dont follow the case on cakez. Lack of engagement, and sheeped me on RMH? Is that it, or did I miss something else? I'm not really TRing him but I dont remember him being on my radar as possible cult. I'll check my notes in the morning. I'll be around before deadline.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Oh eww the Cyrus wagon is James and Dragon no way, if scum think he's cult they can shoot him

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Like, I need to know your thought process kyouko.

Missed this so quoting it for the morning

[ssbm_Kyouko]

VOTE: james for now. Not sure about this cakez wagon. T3 has been vocal about cakez being scum since daystart and that's pretty much all he's posting about. I'd vote T3 out today as possible cult here. No reason he wouldnt be cult here, and he's laying a but low. Says he's not motivated though so I question if that's why he's so bare today, or if he's bare because he's unmotivated to play 3P. Ngl I feel like T3 would enjoy cult leader so maybe hes just actually not cult here. The tunnel has been unusual though

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Gamma, it's been said seems like he comes into the game with an agenda to push Cakez. James and Gamma can be partnered easily as well. I feel like RMH is definitely town but probably wrong. He seems to be trying though. Marashu, I've been TRing and I see he didnt really see Cakez as scum, let alone cult, so I hope by consolidating on James I can pull you and possibly Robert over. I get the feeling those votes are more out of a fear of no limming rather than an actual desire to eliminate cakez.

If I'm wrong though, convince me. I'll be around, and I will vote/hammer cakes before deadline if needed. I think he'll probably flip town, though his rollclaim could be from scum. Claiming the multiple modifier is one of the safest ways to fakeclaim due to the fudging, and I think Cakez claimed after the other rolecop or roleblocker. Gotta check my notes tomorrow on that too

[ssbm_Kyouko]

nooo i don't wanna vote james over cakez
alright well who would switch to james
sorry james but im sure your sacrifice will be worth, if it comes to it

Follow your heart not me

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Gamma, it's been said seems like he comes into the game with an agenda to push Cakez. James and Gamma can be partnered easily as well. I feel like RMH is definitely town but probably wrong. He seems to be trying though. Marashu, I've been TRing and I see he didnt really see Cakez as scum, let alone cult, so I hope by consolidating on James I can pull you and possibly Robert over. I get the feeling those votes are more out of a fear of no limming rather than an actual desire to eliminate cakez.

If I'm wrong though, convince me. I'll be around, and I will vote/hammer cakes before deadline if needed. I think he'll probably flip town, though his rollclaim could be from scum. Claiming the multiple modifier is one of the safest ways to fakeclaim due to the fudging, and I think Cakez claimed after the other rolecop or roleblocker. Gotta check my notes tomorrow on that too

Who is this directed at

Everyone, that string of posts is assessing the Cakez wagon

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I kinda just want to know if the cult is real. We're too fragmented. This is the most pro-town elim today I think

VOTE: Gamma

I could also do James because I can see Gamma/James as partners, and if they are, the cult is possibly a lie to distract from scum

the cult is possibly a lie to distract from scum

I mean Jesus fuck, you were cult hunting all day and someone rolled cult. Am I really the only one that thinks this is B.S?

Not gonna lie, it made me super nervous when I read it.

Like, I need to know your thought process kyouko.

My thought process is, if it werent for the existence of cult, I'd be townreading Dwlee and Cyrus, and wouldn't be interested in eliminating either of them today. I'm also thinking James is caught scum, and I didn't want to vote him still, even as sure as I am that he's scum, I didn't want to vote him because of the existence of cult.

I had considered early on that claiming they rolled cult is something scum could do to throw town off the scent, but didn't put much stock into the likelihood of that, until I realized that I'm most interested in voting out Dwlee, who would be completely off the table (for me at least) if this was confirmed singleball. So if scum did fake the cult roll to distract town, it is working on me. It's working on at least half of us I would estimate. I just won a game with Dwlee as town in ELO recently and I would really like to be able to work with him here if possible, so I

want

MegA/Gamma to be scum that lied about cult. I

want

to believe there isn't a cult, and if I can flip Gamma and see he's red, I can convince myself to work with Dwlee.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

My rampaging modifier probably got modified to odd-night so then there's an odd-night and even-night parity cop. I buy it. Who are we wagoning? We don't have much time

It's also possible cakez is just the mafia parity cop that I rolled - I don't think rolecops can see modifiers so it's a safe claim because 2 town PCs were rolled and unless they both come out cakez can't be CCed, and rolecop can't guilty him here

[ssbm_Kyouko]

don't like how easily T3 gives this up either when his full ISO today is saying cakez is scum for no good reason. Now the wagon is real he pulls off, could be distancing if cakez is scum

pedit: I thought that as well Dragon, but a Rampaging Parity cop would be kinda strong if it could compare all targets to the main target from the previous night. If that's not how the rampaging PC would work, idk how it would work at all and maybe that would be a reason it would have been changed. Possible both were changed.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

tbf cyrus isn't the first one that has brought up that it seems fake as shit that SSBM spent the entire day cult hunting and BELIEVING megas roll claim to doubting if it was true

Oh no, I felt like I was getting snowed and took a step back!

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Oh I didn't realize that about rolecops. Tbh I still wasn't sure from just reading the bit about X-shots so I went to modifier pages to confirm and from the "Backup" modifier page:

It is possible for a Backup role to exist without the corresponding original role existing, in which case it is impossible for the Backup Role to "turn on"; it will effectively act as a Vanilla role in most respects, but Rolecops will be able to see that it exists.

Actually still reading that I'm not sure if they're saying the rolecop would see "Backup Role" or if they would just see "Role" and be able to confirm the claim that way. Going to ask Cook but idk if I'll get an answer by EOD. Presumably the actual Rolecop(s) will know how it works from their PM, and if you can see modifiers, Cakez may be worth checking to confirm him if he is not eliminated.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Neither of these wagons feel right

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Marashu and Cyrus should both be around, that could be 4 votes

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Cakez wont have a result until D4 though, we'll probably have to massclaim d3 anyways if we cant get scum or cult before then. By the time he has a result he could have been recruited or killed 3 times,and if he gets recruited we wont be able to trust his result

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Basically I think a rolecop should check him and if he's telling the truth say nothing, dont out yourself, but if cakez is lying we can lim him.

Then we just let him live and see if cult or mafia will use actions on him

[ssbm_Kyouko]

4 on james. Right now we have me, dwlee, and Marashu

[ssbm_Kyouko]

oh hahaha cakes fucked up.

?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Cyrus that's only a cc if the third parity cop outs

[ssbm_Kyouko]

But also no modifier parity cop is what I rolled and that role was mafia

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I dont see why a mafia parity cop would get nerfed from normal down to odd-night either. They can find cult with it by PCing the player they kill N1, maybe it was done to make cult stronger? Give cult a couple of days to recruit before mafia can guilty the cult leader?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

VOTE: Cyrus
Cyrus looked at the list where I had said multitasking instead of rampaging by accident but he forgot that it got changed to rampaging and tried to say he was the multitasking one

Yeah cyrus made an oopsie

[ssbm_Kyouko]

VOTE: Cyrus
Cyrus looked at the list where I had said multitasking instead of rampaging by accident but he forgot that it got changed to rampaging and tried to say he was the multitasking one

Think this was hammer but I dont remember if mara was on Cyrus or cakez before swapping

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Assuming cyrus flips scum now:
So PGO could be a lie

[ssbm_Kyouko]

James maybe not scum if Cyrus is, meaning Dragon/James/T3 theories are wrong

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Btw I intend to hammer just thinking a bit first

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Pretty positive marashu is town so the Even-Night PC should be a real roll, whether it was fudged idk. I know my roll is real. Dwlee I am also pretty sure is town unless there is a cult and I feel like it's really possible there isn't one and scum have coordinated to make it seem like there is one.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

There's variants that compare two people rather than getting a number and I think cook said somewhere the games use the former.

The clarifications on page 1 explains how he PCs in this game work. They target 1 player at night and learn if the player theu targeted matches their previous targets alignment. Presumably they learn if their current target matches their previous target at the time they targeted the previous target (so if the previous target gets culted and was town, the PC is comparing to the previously seen Town alignment and not the current Cult alignment but this will need clarified)

I think the parity cop functions by selecting two people in a night?

thats what my role pm saids yes two people . dragon just said one

Doubled is the one that targets 2.people

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Scum are spooked rn hoping we hammer Cyrus before he gives anything else away

[ssbm_Kyouko]

deadline is in like 4 hours
let's not derp out and let him slip away

I won't

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Maybe I should just hammer before anyone CCs Cyrus as a third PC before they realize he outed

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Unofficial VC to help us keep track

SirCakez (4): T3, Gamma Emerald, Marashu, Robert M Hunter
cyrus62 (2): JamesTheNames, Dragon of the West
Gamma Emerald (2): ssbm_Kyouko, redtea
ssbm_Kyouko (2): Nero Cain, cyrus62
JamesTheNames (1): Dwlee99
Gamma Emerald (1): SirCakez
Robert M Hunter (1): Thor Ragnarok

Feel like James and Dragon arent double bussing Cyrus here. Also if James is town he has doubled Neighborizer or Tracker by poe, so we know Cyrus cant be a doubled parity cop via Dragon's roll because James already has it

RMH seems definitely town from the gambit, T3 switched off of cakez before Cyrus outed so he isn't a likely Cyrus partner, bit still possibly cult if Gamma is truthful

[ssbm_Kyouko]

i fucking lied as a gambit for the 1st time it payed off i am town parity cop with no mod i can check him and se if he is green or red.

VOTE: Cakez

Stop you goon

[ssbm_Kyouko]

VOTE: cyrus

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Sorry for cutting it short but idk if Gamma just E-1ed or not

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Oh he definitely didnt I panicked

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Its hammer, but gamma was already voting cakez and you had already unvoted so I think Gammas vote keeps Cakez at 3 votes

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Was worried it was an "oopsie did I e-1 him?" kind of vote where Cyrus swoops in for quickhammer and trades 1 for 1 with Cakez

[ssbm_Kyouko]

James if you're town and Cyrus flips town I think you should get some of the possible parity cops in a hood to see if one can cc cakez in private. I expect Cyrus is just twilight trolling but in case he is not could be worth. As a reminder that list of players is

Gamma, T3, redtea, Nero, Dragon

Prefer not T3 as he could be cult and prefer not Dragon because you and he can still be a team fakeclaiming if Cyrus is town. Up to you of course

[ssbm_Kyouko]

This is 100% a scum-infested wagon

El em at oh

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Still like 20 minutes of twilight.

If we could coordinate it, instead of cakez checking Thor, our voyeur could; if they turn up dead on top of the night kill we'd know they checked thor. Since scum doesn't know who that is and it's a fairly weak role, it might be worth considering.

I think something like this is difficult to coordinate. Maybe we wait a night or two before going for something like this. Voyeur could potentially confirm the existence of a Neighborizer, for example, or could confirm the existence of a role that is not on the list

[ssbm_Kyouko]

There's also potential that James, if town, could neighborize the voyeur and some other role and they can actually coordinate something in private for N2 that can actually work

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I hink voyeur should watch whoever they think is likely to get culted, that's probably ideal

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Or if not who is likely to get culted, at least watch someone that has a role that would be a danger to town if it fell to cult unknowingly

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Well, town was only expected to roll 60% of alignments in the setup. If it was going to be balanced to 10:x, town would have been on more alignment die rolls I think. By that I mean 1-13 or 1-14 would have been town from the start probably

[ssbm_Kyouko]

10 town of 13 is 77% town, 1-15 rolls would be 75% town. But were only 1-12 rolls, so that's only 60%, I highly doubt this was balanced to 10 town. Maybe 10 town were rolled, but if so, the alignment on some of those town rolls was probably changed to mafia or even werewolf. We could have 2 scum factions without us knowing at this point if 2 town were changed to werewolf or alien or something

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Cultings resolve before investigations. If you investigate someone the night they are culted you will see them as Cult.

Can you also clarify what happens if a target is investigated, culted, and killed all in the same night? I believe with culting and killing the same night that the dying player retains their original alignment. Does this mean they will also investigate as their original alignment?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

First

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Alrighty...

We know t3s roll was real because he flipped town, and it was fudged from town to cult. Meaning MegA/Gamma's role is either a lie or the alignment was fudged.

Nobody claimed bus driver yesterday, so any rolecops on bus drivers are likely mafia rather than town. But that's guaranteed 1 fudged roll I think

[ssbm_Kyouko]

3 kills though means probably another alignment that wasnt revealed?
PGO could have killed any one of them. Roleblocker does not stop passive roles like PGO, so assuming T3 checked or clarified that first, safe to assume Thor was recruited or voyeured, unless he's in a hood with James' second target

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Does recruit go through even if remaining cult would be sole member left?

I would assume so but we'll have to check

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Cultings resolve after kills. If you die and are culted in the same night you will retain your original alignment.

I think this indicates the culting woukdnt go through but idk

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Although thor could have killed 2 people in one night if this is just town and mafia, no alien/wolf/3p left

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Cakez flipping cult with the 20 modifier claimed on a rollclaim in 268 that copies the previous rollclaim made by Nero in 226 means obviously cakez lied about their 3d20 by copying Nero in an ambiguous way (claiming 2 modifiers makes it hard to tell on a rolecop flip if it confirms Cakez's or Nero's 3d20)

Pedit: says kills resolve before culting so I would think if the CL is dead before cult resolves that his deadness trumps his culting action, but will wait for mod clarification. I agree with PL on Thor if the mod says the culting would resolve though

[ssbm_Kyouko]

It's technically possible that we have a 3p bus driver, if Cakez rolled Cult and lied about it because he received cult, and MegA rolled Cult, one would get rerolled on alignment die as 3p

[ssbm_Kyouko]

safe to assume Thor was recruited or voyeured, unless he's in a hood with James' second target

I dislike this assumption

Where do you think 3 kills comes from if not from the PGO?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Final VC

cyrus62 (7+1):

JamesTheNames, Dragon of the West, T3, SirCakez, Nero Cain, Dwlee99, ssbm_Kyouko

//Extra votes: Marashu

SirCakez (3):

Robert M Hunter, cyrus62, Gamma Emerald

Robert M Hunter (1):

Thor Ragnarok

Gamma Emerald (1):

redtea

With 13 alive it took 7 votes to hammer

cyrus62

.

This Cyrus wagon is looking pristine aside from Cakez tbh

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Also with T3 flipping odd-night roleblocker my TR on RMH goes out the window. I thought his gambit was specifically coming from a town odd-night roleblocker role